The development objective of the Municipal Services Emergency Project for Lebanon is to address urgent community priorities in select municipal services, targeting areas most affected by the influx of Syrian refugees.
... See More + Some of the negative impacts and mitigation measures include: (1) preparing and implementing resettlement action plans for displacement of human settlements; (2) providing onsite sanitation facilities for construction crew; (3) hiring of local workers coupled with a counselling program; (4) warning to residents followed by effective management to shorten period of construction activity to avoid dust, noise, and vibrations; (5) applying the 3Rs principle (reduce, re-use, and recycle) in waste management; (6) analysing alternatives for best route selection to minimize any adverse impact for new pipelines; and (7) following standards and norms for scientific landfill design.
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The Road Asset Management Project are to assist the Government of Yemen (GOY) in: (i) improving condition and safety of existing paved road infrastructure in 3-4 governorates, and (ii) putting in place institutional arrangements for efficient routine and emergency maintenance of paved roads in Yemen.
... See More + Negative impacts include: waste management; landslides, soil erosion, and visual intrusion; traffic; air quality; noise; water supply; drainage; and fauna and flora. Mitigation measures include: 1) proper solid waste disposal or liquid waste recycling at designated permitted sites, periodic inspection of road works, and periodic inspection of equipment maintenance; 2) ensure that populated areas are protected from landslides, where feasible, provision of an open area 1m wide, behind cut side channels, to accommodate fallen debris which must be cleaned, where feasible, increase the mass thickness of the rock fill to provide additional resistance to stability, provision of adequate drainage systems, planting trees in sensitive zones, where feasible, and restoration of vegetative cover, where feasible; 3) informing the public about schedule of maintenance, and provision of alternative access roads/by-passes where feasible traffic management, and ensure traffic safety; 4) usage of well-maintained equipment, and water spraying for dust control; 5) usage of quiet/well-maintained equipment, usage of operational noise mufflers, limiting noisy activities to normal daylight hours, provision of speed limit signs at critical locations, and planting trees in sensitive zones, where feasible; 6) protecting water supply systems, and coordination with land owners on scheduling maintenance activities; 7) side sloping the road to prevent the accumulation of water on the road surface, re-vegetation of disturbed soils, and periodic cleaning and maintenance of ditches and culverts; and 8) placing speed limit signs and planting trees at critical locations and known animal crossing pathways, and periodic cleaning and maintenance of culverts to facilitate amphibians crossing.
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This paper proposes diagnostics to assess the accuracy of survey-to-survey imputation methods and applies them to examine why imputing from the Household Income and Expenditure Survey into the Labor Force Survey fails to accurately project poverty trends in Sri Lanka between 2006 and 2009.
... See More + Survey-to-survey imputation methods rely on two key assumptions: (i) that the questions in the two surveys are asked in a consistent way and (ii) that common variables of the two surveys explain a large share of the intertemporal change in household expenditure and poverty. In addition, differences in sampling design can lead validation tests to underestimate the accuracy of survey-to-survey predictions. In Sri Lanka, the causes of failure differ across sectors. In the urban sector, the primary culprit is differences between the two surveys in the design of the questionnaire. In the rural and estate sectors, the set of common variables in the prediction model does not adequately capture changes in poverty. The paper concludes that in Sri Lanka, survey-to-survey imputation between the Household Income and Expenditure Survey and the Labor Force Survey cannot produce accurate poverty estimates unless the Labor Force Survey adds additional questions on assets and is redesigned to use a questionnaire that is compatible with the Household Income and Expenditure Survey. Alternatively, a new welfare-tracking survey that satisfies these conditions could be established.
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Policy Research Working Paper WPS6961 JUL 01, 2014
Newhouse, D.; Shivakumaran, S.; Takamatsu, S.; Yoshida, N.
This paper proposes a method for estimating distribution functions that are associated with the nested errors in linear mixed models. The estimator incorporates Empirical Bayes prediction while making minimal assumptions about the shape of the error distributions.
... See More + The application presented in this paper is the small area estimation of poverty and inequality, although this denotes by no means the only application. Monte-Carlo simulations show that estimates of poverty and inequality can be severely biased when the non-normality of the errors is ignored. The bias can be as high as 2 to 3 percent on a poverty rate of 20 to 30 percent. Most of this bias is resolved when using the proposed estimator. The approach is applicable to both survey-to-census and survey-to-survey prediction.
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Policy Research Working Paper WPS6962 JUL 01, 2014
The paper assesses the impact of overall inequality, as well as inequality among the poor and among the rich, on the growth rates along various percentiles of the income distribution.
... See More + The analysis uses micro-census data from U.S. states covering the period from 1960 to 2010. The paper finds evidence that high levels of inequality reduce the income growth of the poor and, if anything, help the growth of the rich. When inequality is deconstructed into bottom and top inequality, the analysis finds that it is mostly top inequality that is holding back growth at the bottom.
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Policy Research Working Paper WPS6963 JUL 01, 2014
This paper reviews key issues in the 'cash versus food' debate, including as they relate to political economy, theory, evidence, and practice.
... See More + In doing so, it benefited from a new generation of 12 impact evaluations deliberately comparing alternative transfer modalities. Findings show that differences in effectiveness vary by indicator, although they tend to be moderate on average. In some cases differences are more marked (i.e., food consumption and calorie availability), but in most instances they are not statistically significant. In general, transfers' performance and their difference seem a function of the organic and fluid interactions among factors like the profile and 'initial conditions' of beneficiaries, the capacity of local markets, and program objectives and design. Costs associated with cash transfers and vouchers tend to be substantially lower relative to food. Yet methods for cost-effectiveness analysis vary and need to be more standardized and nuanced. The reviewed evaluations are helping to shift the debate from one shaped by ideology, political economy and 'inference' of evidence to one centering on robust and context-specific results.
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Working Paper (Numbered Series) 89502 JUL 01, 2014
Several high-level reports have raised the concern that low-income countries, especially in Africa, are experiencing premature de-industrialization.
... See More + The concern is that they are growing without transforming. Have the latecomers to development missed the boat? Although these concerns are well placed, Africa's growth seems to be benefitting from a structural transformation of a different kind. The manufacturing sector as a share of gross domestic product has shrunk, but countries have benefitted from the third industrial revolution with globalization of services being at the forefront of this technological revolution. As services produced and traded across the world expand with globalization, the possibilities for low-income countries to develop based on their comparative advantage expand. That comparative advantage can just as easily be in services as in manufacturing. Comparative advantage need not be a one-trick pony.
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Policy Research Working Paper WPS6971 JUL 01, 2014
The paper provides a detailed review of Thomas Piketty's book "Capital in the 21st century." It focuses on the new contributions of the book, and in particular on its unified treatment of economic growth, functional income distribution, and concentration of personal income.
... See More + It concludes that Piketty's reinvigoration of classical and empircally-drven approach is likely to have a profound impact on economics.
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Policy Research Working Paper WPS6974 JUL 01, 2014
The Nigerian Economic Report (NER) is a regular publication of the World Bank. Each edition of the NER includes a macroeconomic overview and gives special attention to an additional topic of high policy relevance.
... See More + In addition to macroeconomic performance, this edition of the NER focuses on recent releases of new statistical information. First, newly re-based Gross Domestic Product figures indicate a larger, more diversified, and complex economy in Nigeria than was hitherto reported, with significant contributions to growth coming from manufacturing and some services not captured in previous data. Second, Chapter 2 provides an analysis of recent NBS GHS household survey data, which supports the hypothesis that the larger NBS HNLSS survey of 2009/2010 may have underestimated consumption.
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The academic literature on equality of opportunity has burgeoned. The concepts and measures have begun to be used by policy institutions, including in specific sectors such as health and education.
... See More + It is argued that one advantage of focusing on equality of opportunity is that policy makers are more responsive to that discourse than to equality of outcomes per se. This paper presents a critique of equality of opportunity in the policy context. Although the empirical analysis to which the literature has given rise is useful and is to be welcomed, current methods for quantifying and implementing the concept with a view to informing the policy discourse face a series of fundamental questions that remain unanswered. Without a full appreciation of these difficulties, the methods may prove to be misleading in the policy context.
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Policy Research Working Paper WPS6980 JUL 01, 2014
Ratings for the Community Based Poverty Reduction Project (CPRP) for Nigeria were as follows: outcomes were moderately satisfactory, the risk to development outcome was moderate, the Bank performance was moderately satisfactory, and the Borrower performance was also moderately satisfactory.
... See More + Some lessons learned included: community-based initiatives need to be integrated and coordinated with the broader poverty reduction strategy of the government in order to effectively tackle poverty reduction. The CPRP is an example of a project that was likely more successful than the M&E data can possibly tell. Key indicators were regularly collected and used by state agencies to carry out desk and field assessments of proposals, as well as the selection and funding of micro-projects, and to monitor the realization of the community infrastructure. But very little was collected on targeting, the participatory process, and impacts on the well-being of the communities. Community-development projects, when properly designed, have the potential of addressing the needs of community members who are traditionally marginalized or not adequately represented.
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Project Performance Assessment Report 88077 JUN 30, 2014
Ratings for the Rural Community Development Project (PACR) for Mali were as follows: outcomes were satisfactory, the risk to development outcome was moderate, the Bank performance was satisfactory, and the Borrower performance was also satisfactory.
... See More + Some lessons learned included: necessity for authorities to discuss and decide early on Project hosting arrangements. Government authorities need to be as proactive as possible on project hosting arrangements so as to discuss and decide on this critical aspect as soon as possible so that not only possible delays in project preparation can be avoided or significantly reduced but also ownership is fostered and stronger commitment of authorities early on. It is important to note that when a conflict situation does occur in any country, central institutions can be severely weakened. In this context, CDD approach and related projects are often among the few interventions that may still function. Experience has shown that CDD approach can play an important role in the reconciliation process between communities affected by the conflict. PACR approach and implementation procedures of the local productive initiative fund (LPIF) were critical to give more responsibility to the different actors, those of government institutions, but particularly at the community level. This allowed a better ownership of local investments and an increase of awareness for appropriate maintenance and sustainability.
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Implementation Completion and Results Report ICR3171 JUN 27, 2014
Ratings for the Support to Oportunidades Project for Mexico were as follows: outcomes were satisfactory, risk to development outcome was low or negligible, Bank performance was satisfactory, and Borrower performance was satisfactory.
... See More + Some lessons learned included: in a time of crisis conditional cash transfers (CCTs) can be easily scaled up in coverage or generosity ensuring a pro-poor targeted support in a difficult time. Households can remain beneficiaries of CCTs for a very long time and may need additional support to transition out of poverty, particularly given the high economic and social marginalization of the areas in which beneficiaries tend to live. CCT programs cannot be thought of in isolation from other social policies, and achieving human capital accumulation goals will require adaptation of the supply of social services (coverage but also quality). A rigorous evaluation agenda provides legitimacy and support for CCT programs as well as the evidence base to introduce changes in program operation that can improve outcomes. Maintaining dialogue in the absence of lending is key to keeping a place at the table, and to being able to respond rapidly. The CCT community of practice (COP) was instrumental for this. Timely, focused, technical assistance can lead a project from responsive to transformative. The direct support to oportunidades was the main purpose of the project at the outset. The inter-institutional collaboration with health and education, while crucial for the success of the program proved challenging and advanced at a slow pace. The choice to use a sector investment loan (SIL) instead of development policy lending (DPL) made it possible for the team to be more involved in the operational details of the program and, as a consequence, to provide timely technical assistance (TA) that was well aligned with emerging program demands. The large amount of lending and fast disbursement was possible because of the existence of mature country programs and systems for payment in Mexico.
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Implementation Completion and Results Report ICR2932 JUN 26, 2014
The overall outcome rating of the Emergency Northern Recovery Project for Sri Lanka was judged to be moderately satisfactory. The Bank and borrower performance were satisfactory.
... See More + The risk to development outcome was moderate. Significant changes included change in the scope of the components and to some of the sub-components, and reallocations of the appraisal estimated budget. Several lessons were learned. A post conflict recovery project can provide immediate assistance to Internally Displaced People (IDP) returnees and substantially help restore their livelihoods provided it can be started immediately, has political commitment and effective implementation mechanisms in place, and has the right components. Including a wide range of provincial, district and local level implementation agencies into a project enables an emergency recovery project to simultaneously address urgent high priority multiple recovery needs of IDPs in war ravaged areas. Political leadership is necessary to provide effective coordination. The effectiveness of short recovery operations can be enhanced through careful targeting of beneficiaries, beneficiary needs assessment and complaints redressal mechanisms. Active participation of beneficiaries in the implementation of project supported activities is also crucial for sustaining project funded village-level infrastructure. Allocation of project funds on a first-come first-serve basis rather than fixed district allocations increases project success provided effective social safeguards are in place. A large demand-based public services and infrastructure rehabilitation component should be subject to economic analysis/justification during project design and implementation, have adequate provision for funding operations and maintenance, and incorporate an unallocated reserve fund of at least 10 percent of the component cost. Well-coordinated cash for work programs can be extremely effective in post conflict situations to encourage IDPs to return to their areas of origin, and to provide them with immediate and extremely beneficial assistance to kick-start their livelihoods until regular income generation activities are resumed. Gender mainstreaming and targeting of vulnerable and marginalized persons should be incorporated in recovery projects, rather than rely only on area-based targeting and self-targeting by setting labor rates below market rates.
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Implementation Completion and Results Report ICR2922 JUN 26, 2014
Ratings for the Second National Fadama Development Project for Nigeria were as follows: outcomes were moderately satisfactory, the risk to development outcome was substantial, the Bank performance was moderately satisfactory, and the Borrower performance was satisfactory.
... See More + Some lessons learned included: the Fadama program is illustrative of the risks that are attendant in neglecting social analysis in technical work streams. The project's first phase contributed to conflict between natural resource users groups by financing activities that expanded livelihood benefits to one user group at the expense of others. The sustainability of community-based initiatives depends crucially on an enabling institutional environment, which requires government commitment, and on accountability of leaders to their community to avoid 'supply-driven demand-driven' development. Programs designed to change behavior need to be grounded in a deep understanding of context; they need to be willing to engage in a study of what motivates people. Programs implemented at scale should include a sensitive design that takes into account the different cultural, linguistic and ethnic characteristics of the targeted population. Programs designed to change behavior also require observational and qualitative indicators that in turn, require capacity building and implementation support to tweak project assumptions and project adjust design in real time.
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Project Performance Assessment Report 88958 JUN 26, 2014
Most countries in the world aspire to protect poorest and most vulnerable families from destitution and thus provide some type of income support to those who are very poor.
... See More + These programs are often layered into social policy along with other transfers, subsidies, or services. The way to best provide such last-resort income support (LRIS) and its role in wider social policy is a matter of some complexity, much experimentation, and much study. In Eastern Europe and Central Asia, 28 of 30 countries operate LRIS programs. This study examines the experience of LRIS programs in Eastern Europe and Central Asia. It documents the outcomes of such programs throughout the region in terms of expenditure, coverage, targeting, and simulated effects on poverty and inequality. For a subset of countries, the study documents and draws lessons from the design and implementation arrangements - institutional frameworks and administrative structures, eligibility determination, benefits and conditions, governance mechanisms, and administrative costs on the basis of information gleaned during in-depth country engagements that have extended a decade or more (Albania, Armenia, Bulgaria, the Kyrgyz Republic, Lithuania, and Romania) and other detailed work available from newer or more specific engagements (Croatia, the Russian Federation, Serbia, Ukraine, and Uzbekistan). The report is organized as follows: chapter one gives introduction. Chapter two provides an overview of the role of LRIS in the wider social assistance policies of Eastern Europe and Central Asia. Chapter three looks into the institutional and financing arrangements of the LRIS programs in the case study countries. Chapter four covers one of the two most charged issues in narrowly targeted LRIS programs - how eligibility is determined. Chapter five takes up the other charged issue in these programs - the benefit formula and how labor disincentives can be held in check with the guaranteed minimum income design. Chapter six focuses on two key elements of control and accountability systems in LRIS programs - modern management information systems and strategies to reduce error, fraud, and corruption. Chapter seven examines the administrative costs of the LRIS programs in the case study countries. Chapter eight highlights and summarizes the lessons.
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Publication 89068 JUN 24, 2014
Tesliuc, Emil; Pop, Lucian; Grosh, Margaret; Yemtsov, Ruslan