This paper assesses the potential impact of antimicrobial resistance on global economic growth and poverty. The analysis uses a global computable general equilibrium model and a microsimulation framework that together capture impact channels related to health, mortality, labor productivity, health care financing, and production in the livestock and other sectors.
... See More + The effects spread across countries via trade flows that may be affected by new trade restrictions. Relative to a world without antimicrobial resistance, the losses during 2015–50 may sum to $85 trillion in gross domestic product and $23 trillion in global trade (in present value). By 2050, the cost in global gross domestic product could range from 1.1 percent (low case) to 3.8 percent (high case). Antimicrobial resistance is expected to make it more difficult to eliminate extreme poverty. Under the high antimicrobial resistance scenario, by 2030, an additional 24.1 million people would be extremely poor, of whom 18.7 million live in low-income countries. In general, developing countries will be hurt the most, especially those with the lowest incomes.
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Policy Research Working Paper WPS8133 JUN 30, 2017
The Western Balkan countries, Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Kosovo, the former Yugoslav Republic (FYR) of Macedonia, Montenegro, and Serbia, achieved strong growth and poverty reduction since the start of the transition to market economies.
... See More + Despite progress, today the six Western Balkan countries remain among the poorest in Europe, overtaken by the more successful neighboring countries in terms of convergence to EU standards of living. In summary, to converge faster to EU living standards, the Western Balkan countries need to continue to pursue a ‘three-pronged’ effort by implementing in parallel prudent macroeconomic policies, bold structural reforms, and measures to advance economic integration. Macroeconomic and fiscal stability, accompanied by decisive structural reforms are two necessary conditions to promote a sustainable and strong growth model, one that is based on private sector growth, investment, and higher exports. Structural reforms are key to unlocking the benefits of regional integration including productivity gains, investments, and job creation, all of which will support convergence to EU living standards. Indeed, economic integration is linked to productivity, as productivity is inherent in achieving economies of scale. And the speed and depth of reforms that rekindle income convergence will help advance the pace of economic integration.
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This paper proposes a methodology to approximate individual income distribution dynamics using only time series data on aggregate moments of the income distribution.
... See More + Under the assumption that individual incomes follow a lognormal autoregressive process, this paper shows that the evolution over time of the mean and standard deviation of log income across individuals provides sufficient information to place upper and lower bounds on the degree of mobility in the income distribution. The paper demonstrates that these bounds are reasonably informative, using the U.S. Panel Study of Income Dynamics where the panel structure of the data allows us to compare measures of mobility directly estimated from the micro data with approximations based only on aggregate data. Bounds on mobility are estimated for a large cross-section of countries, using data on aggregate moments of the income distribution available in the World Wealth and Income Database and the World Bank's PovcalNet database. The estimated bounds on mobility imply that conventional anonymous growth rates of the bottom 40 percent (top 10 percent) that do not account for mobility substantially understate (overstate) the expected growth performance of those initially in the bottom 40 percent (top 10 percent).
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Policy Research Working Paper WPS8123 JUN 27, 2017
A country's productive structure and competitiveness are harbingers of growth. Growth is a dynamic process based on capabilities that are difficult to define and measure across countries.
... See More + This paper uses a global measure of fitness (or complexity-weighted diversity of production) as a method to explore a country's relative growth potential. The analysis finds that there are two types of growth, predictable or laminar, and unpredictable. This classification is used to create a selection mechanism (the Selective Predictability Scheme), defining future growth trajectories for similar countries, and compares projected long-term, five-year forecasts with traditional methods used by the International Monetary Fund. The analysis finds that production structure is a good long-term predictor of growth, with prediction performance falling off for countries not yet in the laminar classification.
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Policy Research Working Paper WPS8117 JUN 26, 2017
A country's productive structure and competitiveness are harbingers of growth. Growth is a dynamic process based on capabilities that are difficult to define and measure across countries.
... See More + This paper uses a global measure of fitness (or complexity-weighted diversity of production) as a method to explore a country's relative growth potential. The analysis finds that there are two types of growth, predictable or laminar, and unpredictable. This classification is used to create a selection mechanism (the Selective Predictability Scheme), defining future growth trajectories for similar countries, and compares projected long-term, five-year forecasts with traditional methods used by the International Monetary Fund. The analysis finds that production structure is a good long-term predictor of growth, with prediction performance falling off for countries not yet in the laminar classification.
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Policy Research Working Paper WPS8117 JUN 26, 2017
Solomon Islands is a small, remote archipelago in the South Pacific that faces a fairly unique set of development challenges. Solomon Islands is now at a critical juncture in its development trajectory.
... See More + Neither the economic geography nor the present political economy of Solomon Islands is particularly conducive to the establishment of state institutions capable of managing upcoming socioeconomic change. Because of the weaknesses of state institutions, and consistent with Solom on Islands’ historical experience, a variety of non-state and international actors will need to play important roles in managing upcoming and potentially risky socioeconomic change. This Systematic Country Diagnostic (SCD) for Solomon Islands identifies key challenges and opportunities for achieving inclusive and sustainable growth, to accelerate progress toward the World Bank Group’s twin goals of reducing extreme poverty and promoting shared prosperity.
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The Country Partnership Framework (CPF) for Ukraine covers the 5 years from FY17 to FY21. The CPF is aligned with the objectives of the country’s development strategy as outlined in the Government Program and Action Plan adopted in April 2017 and is based on the findings and recommendations of the World Bank Group (WBG) Systematic Country Diagnostic (SCD) for Ukraine.
... See More + The objective of the WBG CPF in Ukraine during FY17-FY21 is to promote sustained and inclusive economic recovery after nearly a decade of stagnation and two years of economic crisis. The focus areas of the CPF broadly parallel the pathways identified in the SCD, but are further prioritized. The engagement will be highly selective and based on the intersection of the Government’s development agenda, the development challenges and approaches outlined in the SCD, and the comparative advantage and capacity of WBG to deliver. The resulting CPF focus areas are : (i) Better Governance, Anticorruption, and Citizen Engagement; (ii) Making Markets Work; (iii) Fiscal and Financial Sustainability; and (iv) Efficient, Effective, and Inclusive Service Delivery.
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Country Assistance Strategy Document 114516 JUN 20, 2017
The Country Partnership Framework (CPF) for Ukraine covers the 5 years from FY17 to FY21. The CPF is aligned with the objectives of the country’s development strategy as outlined in the Government Program and Action Plan adopted in April 2017 and is based on the findings and recommendations of the World Bank Group (WBG) Systematic Country Diagnostic (SCD) for Ukraine.
... See More + The objective of the WBG CPF in Ukraine during FY17-FY21 is to promote sustained and inclusive economic recovery after nearly a decade of stagnation and two years of economic crisis. The focus areas of the CPF broadly parallel the pathways identified in the SCD, but are further prioritized. The engagement will be highly selective and based on the intersection of the Government’s development agenda, the development challenges and approaches outlined in the SCD, and the comparative advantage and capacity of WBG to deliver. The resulting CPF focus areas are : (i) Better Governance, Anticorruption, and Citizen Engagement; (ii) Making Markets Work; (iii) Fiscal and Financial Sustainability; and (iv) Efficient, Effective, and Inclusive Service Delivery.
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Country Assistance Strategy Document 114516 JUN 20, 2017
Ratings of Cultural Heritage and Urban Development Project for Lebanon were as follows: outcomes were satisfactory, risk to development outcome was low, Bank performance was satisfactory, Borrower performance was moderately satisfactory, Fiduciary Aspects was satisfactory, and Safeguards was satisfactory.
... See More + Some of the lessons learned included: (i) An integrated approach helped achieve sound results; (ii) Right-sizing investments facilitated implementation; (iii) Sound application of safeguards helped turn challenges into development opportunities; and (iv) Social cohesion proved to be a valid add-on during implementation.
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Implementation Completion and Results Report ICR4079 JUN 15, 2017
The development objective of the Priority Skills for Growth Program-for-Results Project for Rwanda is to expand opportunities for the acquisition of quality, market-relevant skills in selected economic sectors.
... See More + The proposed operation is aligned with themes under the World Bank’s Country Partnership Strategy for Rwanda FY2014-2018, which identifies the following areas as a focus for IDA resources: energy, urban development, rural development, social protection and accountable governance15. These areas are further grouped into three themes: Theme 1: Accelerating economic growth that is private-sector driven and job-creating; Theme 2: Improving the productivity and incomes of the poor through rural development and social protection; and Theme 3: Supporting accountable governance through Public Financial Management (PFM) and decentralization. Specifically, the proposed operation, which aims to improve skills for job opportunities, supports theme 1 and 2. The proposed operation is also aligned with the World Bank’s Africa Region strategic focus (high quality human capital), and complements other IDA-financed projects in Rwanda such as the current Electricity Sector Strengthening Project, the Urban Development Project , and the Transformation of the Agriculture Sector Program.The World Bank is uniquely placed to support the GoR through this operation given it has supported SDPs across the world over the past twenty years and has undertaken detailed reviews and impact evaluations of different interventions. By supporting an existing program, the operation offers a comprehensive package to establish a system that is demand-responsive, focusing on quality and relevance but also considering access for all Rwandans. The operation will also support the establishment of a robust governance and institutional framework to support skills development.The forthcoming operation builds on the successes of the IDA-financed SDP that closed at the end of May 2016. The project was rated satisfactory at closing and given the achievements of the SDP and the leadership exercised in the region by the Rwandan government in the skills development agenda, the new operation is an opportunity to progress to the next level by developing a more comprehensive, innovative and results oriented approach to skills development in Rwanda. The choice of financing instrument is the PforR given there is an existing program (the NEP), and there are institutions and processes that IDA can support in strengthening the skills development agenda.
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Achieving universal access to electricity is one of the most important energy policy goals set by governments in the developing world. The recent empirical literature, however, paints a mixed picture about the economic viability of rural electrification.
... See More + Although many studies find substantial socioeconomic benefits from rural electrification, others propose that these benefits are overstated. This paper examines the hypothesis that the magnitude and the nature of benefits associated with electrification are highly context dependent. Using a panel data of 7,018 rural households in Bangladesh for 2005 and 2010, the paper explores two underlying determinants of the heterogeneity: the quality of electricity supply and the number of years of being connected to the grid. The analysis uses an instrumental variable and propensity-score-weighed fixed-effects model to address potential endogeneity of electricity adoption. The analysis finds that power outages have a negative impact on almost all development outcomes considered, while some benefits of electrification accrue only over the long run. The overall gain from expanding access to and improving reliability of electricity supply in Bangladesh is estimated to be US$2.3 billion a year.
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Policy Research Working Paper WPS8102 JUN 12, 2017
The World Bank Monthly Operational Summary (MOS) reports on the status of projects in the World Bank's pipeline from the time the operation is identified to the signing of the Loan, Credit, or Grant Agreement.
... See More + It is a detailed accounting of the projects included in the country lending programs that are actively being prepared for implementation. The lending programs reflect the Bank's strategy for each member country as set out in the Country Partnership Framework (CPF) presented to the Board of Executive Directors of the World Bank. General information about business opportunities under Bank loans, credits, and grants may be obtained from the World Bank's Procurement Policy and Services Group's website at http://www.worldbank.org/en/projectsoperations/products-and-services/procurementprojects-programs.
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The objective of the Social Investment and Local Development Project for Armenia is to improve the quality and use of and access to community and intercommunity infrastructure.
... See More + Some of the negative impacts and mitigation measures include: the local construction and environment inspectorates and communities have been notified of upcoming activities; the public has been notified of the works through appropriate notification in the media and/or at publicly accessible sites (including the site of the works); waste collection and disposal pathways and sites will be identified for all major waste types expected from demolition and construction activities; mineral construction and demolition wastes will be separated from general refuse, organic, liquid and chemical wastes by on-site sorting and stored in appropriate containers; the approach to handling sanitary wastes and wastewater from building sites must be approved by the local authorities; before being discharged into receiving waters, effluents from individual wastewater systems must be treated in order to meet the minimal quality criteria set out by national guidelines on effluent quality and wastewater treatment; monitoring of new wastewater systems (before/after) will be carried out; construction vehicles and machinery will be washed only in designated areas where runoff will not pollute natural surface water bodies; and if the building is a designated historic structure, very close to such a structure, or located in a designated historic district, notification shall be made and approvals/permits be obtained from local authorities and all construction activities planned and carried out in line with local and national legislation.
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This paper builds on recent research examining the impact of finance on economic outcomes. Specifically, it asks whether credit extended to households and firms has an impact on the share of exports in gross domestic product and on the trade balance.
... See More + The analysis finds that although household credit is not positively related to export shares or trade balances, firm credit is significantly related to both. The relationship with export shares is particularly strong and robust. Higher shares of credit going to firms means a higher export share in gross domestic product and stronger trade balances (any effect of credit on imports is subsumed by the larger effect on exports). Household credit has a negative or insignificant relationship with the trade balance and the share of exports in gross domestic product. Credit may also affect the choice between types of goods produced domestically, not just whether they are produced for export or domestic consumption. The paper finds that household credit has a negative relationship with the share of manufacturing in gross domestic product. Firm credit is positively associated with the share of manufacturing in gross domestic product, while the share of services does not seem to be affected by either.
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Policy Research Working Paper WPS8082 JUN 01, 2017
The first part of the Economic Update analyzes recent macroeconomic trends and presents an assessment of the country's short- and medium-term outlook.
... See More + The Special Focus Section discusses the state of the country's energy sector, including issues surrounding its financial viability and fiscal implications, as well as the social implications of reform scenarios.
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This Public Expenditure Review (PER) was prepared at the request of the Ministry of Finance of Georgia; its analysis of public spending is designed to inform the Georgian authorities on the fiscal policies that support growth and equity.
... See More + As Georgia strives to meet the challenges of a fluid global economic environment, this PER is intended to support the government’s efforts to secure macroeconomic and fiscal sustainability to promote growth and equity. This is a testing time for Georgia’s public finances, as the country faces slowing growth and a difficult regional context.This Public Expenditure Review (PER) is organized in two chapters; the first focusing on the overarching macro-fiscal challenges facing Georgia, and the second “zooming in” to the challenges for public spending in the health sector. In particular, the PER provides an overview of the recent macroeconomic and fiscal developments highlighting major drivers of rising spending, and analyzes potential revenue gains that could be derived from eliminating tax expenditures (Chapter 1). The second part of the report carries out a detailed review of the health spending in Georgia, providing both the context and rationale for implementing the much needed Universal Healthcare (UHC) program in 2013, while highlighting the need for properly managing the existing short-term cost pressures, as well further improving the system’s long-term efficiency and sustainability. This PER is an integral part of the programmatic series of PERs (2012, 2014, and 2015) providing new analyses and recommendations that are complementary to the existing ones. The PER (2012) analyzed the rising expenditure pressures on social and capital spending, and presented options for fiscal consolidation, including measures to improve selectivity in capital expenditures, enhance the sustainability of the pension program, and the coverage of targeted social assistance. The PER (2014) examined the spending on social protection, health, and education, and provided recommendations including strengthening the Social Service Agency, increasing the UHC drug coverage, strengthening preschool education, and improving general and vocational education. It also analyzed quasi-fiscal spending and intergovernmental fiscal relations. A special volume of the PER (2014) studied Georgia’s Public Investment Management and how it could be further enhanced to improve the efficiency of public investment. The PER (2015) highlighted the presence of spending pressures from social programs and analyzed spending efficiency, which led to policy options to direct the redistribution policies towards greater equity, improve agriculture subsidy programs and local government spending.This PER, as a continuation of the series, while focusing its analyses and recommendations strategically on new and specific challenges, it also draws a selected number of recommendations from previous PERs, notwithstanding that most issues covered in previous PERs remain crucial and need to be addressed in parallel.
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Malaysia’s economic growth expanded strongly in first quarter (1Q) 2017. Gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate for 2017 is expected to accelerate to 4.9 percent, slightly above the government’s current projection range of 4.3 to 4.8 percent.
... See More + The current account surplus has declined (1Q 2017: 1.6 percent of GDP; 4Q 2016: 3.8 percent of GDP) due to strong import growth. Gross imports growth, mainly of capital and intermediate goods, outpaced the significant increase in gross exports, resulting in a lower goods surplus. The current account surplus is projected to narrow further to 1.6 percent of GDP in 2017. Monetary policy is expected to remain accommodative and supportive for growth. The higher growth trajectory projected for 2017 opens up room to accelerate reduction in the fiscal deficit. Risks to the economy in the short-term stem mainly from external developments. Focus on implementing further structural reforms to raise the level of potential growth should continue. This include looking into measures to raise the level of productivity, encourage innovation, invest in new skills, leverage digital technologies, and continue ongoing efforts to improve efficiency of public service delivery.
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Kosovo's economy experienced strong growth over the past decade. Has growth translated into robust job creation? Do those in the bottom forty percent of the population have access to employment opportunities that can translate into sustainable shared prosperity?
... See More + This report seeks to provide an integrated analysis of the demand-side and supply-side constraints to job creation and employment; and highlighting salient issues like informality and skill mismatches. Bringing together evidence from a number of data sources, including surveys of household budgets and labor force, as well as firm-level panel data and a specialized survey capturing the employers' assessments of demand and supply of skills in Kosovo, the report tries to provide evidence to argue that reforms aimed at adopting the right set of rules, and developing the right set of skills, to promote job creation, will be vital to reduce inactivity and youth disenfranchisement, and to productively employ the demographic dividend.
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This document presents the World Bank Group (WBG) Country Partnership Framework (CPF) withthe Lao People's Democratic Republic (Lao PDR) for 2017-2021.
... See More + The WBG CPF aims at supportingLasting Accessible Opportunities for all including sustained green growth, improved access to humanand infrastructure services, and opportunities for all. The previous Country Partnership Strategy (CPS)2012-2016 built a solid foundation and a strong relationship with the Government of Lao PDR (GOL). The CPF supports the GOL's 8th National Socio-Economic Development Plan (NSEDP) for2016-2020. The 8th NSEDP introduces policies intended to put Lao PDR on a path to reduce povertyand promote shared prosperity in a sustainable manner, based on green growth principles. Lao PDR'sdevelopment has advanced greatly in the last two decades, although significant challenges remain.Incomes have risen, poverty has declined, access to several key public services has improved and asa result Lao PDR met a number of its Millennium Development Goals. With GDP growth averaging8 percent per year since 2000, Lao PDR today is a lower-middle income country with a GNI percapita of around US$1,740 in 2015. However, growth has been driven mainly by exploitation of itsabundant natural resources and has been less inclusive, resilient, and sustainable than for regional comparators. Widespread malnutrition and overall low consumption levels highlight the challenges that remain for the basic well-being of the country.
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Country Assistance Strategy Document 116234 JUN 01, 2017
