The downgrading of projects at the closing from moderately satisfactory to moderately unsatisfactory has been a persistent problem in the World Bank and a particular problem in the World Bank's East Asia and Pacific region since 2012.
... See More + Through analysis of the projects that exited the East Asia and Pacific region's portfolio in fiscal years 2012 and 2013, this paper derives a prediction model based on ratings for implementation progress and achievement of development objectives during project supervision. The model, used in combination with other indicators of project progress toward outcomes, appears to improve on existing methods for assessing the downgrade risk.
See Less -
Policy Research Working Paper WPS7800 AUG 22, 2016
Blanc,Marc; Esmail,Talib B. K.; Mascarell,Caroline; Rodriguez,Joseph RukshanDisclosed
The World Bank Group (WBG) endorsement of the Country Partnership Strategy (CPS) in June2013 coincided with Croatia’s membership as the 28th country to join the European Union.
... See More + (EU). Theprogram supported Croatia’s efforts to maximize the benefits of EU accession, including access to European Structural and Investment Funds and opportunities to strengthen institutions. The FY14-17 CPS focused squarely on the most pressing challenges to improving the country’s growth prospects: the need for fiscal adjustment and to enhance competitiveness. At the time of the CPS, the challenges facing the Croatian economy required a strong structural reform agenda and ownership, including to meet EU Country Specific Recommendations (CSR), which proved to be increasingly difficult in the lead up to the political transition. The WBG program supported government efforts first with the ERDPL2, and also through analytical work. Croatia’s economic fundamentals have improved since the approval of the CPS and economic growth returned in 2015 for the first time since the 2008 crisis. The expectation is that growth will continue at a gradual pace, however advances on structural reforms will depend on political developments, including the results of upcoming snap elections, called for by the Croatian Parliament. The WBG program articulated in the CPS is on track to deliver results by the end of the FY14-17 period. The Performance Learning Review (PLR) introduces some modest adjustments to define expected outcomes with greater precision. Given a thorough understanding of development challenges and constraints could help Croatia unleash its full growth potential, the WBG will focus efforts during theremaining year of implementation on the preparation of the Systemic Country Diagnostic (SCD). The SCD will provide an input for informing national policies, lay the foundation for the future Country Partnership Framework (CPF), and allow for a tighter alignment of the WBG program with the Twin Goals.
See Less -
Country Assistance Strategy Document 106507 AUG 10, 2016
This declaration explains about the meeting which held on August 04 to 05, 2016 associate with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank met at Palais des Congres de Cotonou (Benin), for the African Caucus.
... See More + The discussions focused on the general theme "Bretton Woods Institutions Support to Address Shocks, Boost Growth and Enhance economic Transformation in Africa”. The report explains the outcome of this meeting, the African Governors agreed to the conduct of the development policies on the continent prove to be more challenging due to declining commodity prices, tighter financial conditions on capital markets and the multiplicity of shocks of non-economic sources mainly security issues ( terrorism) and climate change and so on.
See Less -
This Performance and Learning Review (PLR) updates and assesses progress in implementing the World Bank Group (WBG) Country Partnership Strategy (CPS) for the Independent State of Papua New Guinea (PNG) for the period FY2013–2016, discussed by the Board of Executive Directors in November 2012.
... See More + The CPS is aligned with the government’s Vision 2050, the PNG Development Strategic Plan 2010–2030, and the Medium Term Development Plan (MTDP) 2011–2015. Performance of the CPS program has been mixed, with some standouts, such as agriculture and rural development and the extractives sector, but also some delays. It is proposed that the CPS period be extended by two years, through FY2018, to allow sufficient time to engage with the new government following national elections slated for mid-2017 and to align the follow-on Country Partnership Framework (CPF) with the government’s development planning cycle. Given that parliamentary turnover is traditionally high (over 60 percent) in PNG, it is expected that a period of adjustment will follow the vote. This PLR proposes to extend the CPS period to end-FY2018 to allow sufficient time for the government to form and to engage and agree with the new government on strategic priorities for Bank engagement going forward. This added time will give the country team a chance to track a strengthened results matrix, in which CPS outcomes, indicators, and milestones are better aligned with restructured projects and ongoing monitoring activities. In addition, the government has limited its second development plan (MTDP2) to a two-year period (2016–2017), after which it plans to align its development planning cycle with the five-year parliamentary cycle. As such, by extending this CPS period by two years, the WBG can better align its next CPF with the government’s MTDP3 for 2018–2022. The Bank’s country team is planning to deliver a Systematic Country Diagnostic (SCD) in FY2017 in preparation for the CPF to follow.
See Less -
Country Assistance Strategy Document 105698 JUL 01, 2016
Some of the headings included in this issue of the Development Economics Prospects Group (DECPG) global economic prospects monthly working paper are as follows: overview; chart of the month; Special focus: quantifying uncertainties in global growth forecasts; monthly highlights; key prospects group publications; recent World Bank working papers; recent World Bank reports;
... See More +See Less -
Money demand is critical for defining monetary policy options and is not driven necessarily by developed country standards of transaction demand, speculation motive, and opportunity costs grounded by fully functioning financial markets.
... See More + However, market imperfections in less developed economies can also play a critical role in the dynamics of demand for money. This paper estimates a vector equilibrium correction model to investigate the nature of short-term and long-term interactions for money demand in the Arab Republic of Egypt. The paper concludes that real money demand in Egypt during (1958-2013) is stable and can be considered confidently by monetary authorities to adjust for long-term growth in the real economy. The rate of devaluation of the official exchange rate and inflation have a serious effect on the public's trust in the national currency in the long term. Money is not neutral for long-term portfolio decisions, because of the increase in real income in the economy that couples with an uptrend in monetization as the ratio of money stock over output also uptrends. The paper also provides quantitative evidence that the devaluation within the parallel market is negatively related to the change in demand for real money balances in the short term. Economic agents hold more domestic currency if the official exchange rate slides, and arbitrage opportunities are sought in the parallel market.
See Less -
Policy Research Working Paper WPS7679 MAY 18, 2016
Some of the headings included in this issue of the Development Economics Prospects Group (DECPG) global daily economic news are as follows: financial markets; high income economies; and developing economies in East Asia and Pacific, Europe,Central Asia, Latin America, The Caribbean, South Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa
... See More +See Less -
For International Development Association (IDA) replenishments, partner contributions announced in pledge currencies are translated into special drawing right (SDR) terms by using a set of average foreign exchange rates over an agreed reference period.
... See More + Since IDA7, partners have chosen to determine the reference period at the beginning of the replenishment discussions. In setting the reference period, partners have agreed to use the following criteria: sufficient lead time should be allowed to determine the pledge currency amounts that partners will contribute to meet a specific percentage burden share or SDR amount in the replenishment; the reference period chosen should cover an upcoming period to avoid using known foreign exchange rates to the extent feasible; and the method for determining exchange rates should mitigate short-term currency fluctuations. There are two recommendations for IDA deputy approval at the first replenishment meeting in March 2016 related to effective foreign exchange rates for use in the IDA18 replenishment: (a) it is recommended that a six-month averaging period from March 1, 2016 through August 31, 2016 be adopted for setting the IDA18 reference exchange rates; (b) it is also recommended that an average annual inflation rate threshold of 10 percent over the three-year period of 2013-2015 be used to determine partner countries with high domestic inflation rates.
See Less -
On October 9, 2015, International Bank for Reconstruction and Development (IBRD) Board of Governors adopted resolution number six hundred and forty-five.
... See More + It was resolved that: (i) the report of the Executive Directors dated August 6, 2015 on allocation of FY15 net income is noted with approval; (ii) the addition to the General Reserve of the IBRD of 36 million dollars, plus or minus any rounding amount less than 1 million dollar, is noted with approval; and (iii) the IBRD transfers to the International Development Association, by way of a grant out of the FY15 allocable net income of the IBRD, 650 million dollars, which amount may be used by the Association to provide financing in the form of grants in addition to loans; such transfer is to be drawn down by the Association immediately upon approval by the Board of Governors of the IBRD.
See Less -
In response to a request of the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) and as part of a broader engagement on enhancing financial consumer protection and education in the Philippines, the World Bank has implemented a financial capability survey.
... See More + Financial inclusion, financial literacy and consumer protection are important priorities for the BSP and the Philippines government. Consumer protection and education are critical elements in building an inclusive financial system and BSP seeks to identify sustainable methods of delivering financial education through effective partnerships. The proposed survey constitutes a key diagnostic tool that aims to guide BSP on the models for delivering financial education and to set quantifiable and concrete targets. This financial capability survey is the first in the Philippines and one of the very first in the East Asia and Pacific Region (EAPF). The key findings and recommendations presented in this report cover 3 main areas: 1. Financial Inclusion, 2. Financial Capability, and 3. Financial Consumer Protection. The remaining chapters are structured as follows. Chapter 1 explores the financial inclusion landscape in the Philippines. Chapter 2 gives an overview of Filipinos' levels of financial capability, in particular about their financial knowledge, attitudes and behaviors. The last chapter investigates if the products which financially included individuals use are effectively meeting their needs.
See Less -
This Executive Directors' strategic engagements work program covers FY15 QIV, FY16 Q1, FY15 QIV, and updated reports and other documents to be circulated for information.
... See More +See Less -
Some of the headings included in this issue of the Development Economics Prospects Group (DECPG) global daily economic news are as follows: high income economies; and developing economies in South Asia.
... See More +See Less -
This article examines how economic shocks affect individual well-being in developing countries. Using the case of a sudden and unanticipated currency devaluation in Botswana as a quasi-experiment, the article examines how this monetary shock affects individuals' evaluations of well-being.
... See More + This is done by using microlevel survey data, which—incidentally—were collected in the days surrounding the devaluation. The chance occurrence of the devaluation during the time of the survey enables us to use pretreatment respondents, surveyed before the devaluation, as approximate counterfactuals for post-treatment respondents, surveyed after the devaluation. Estimates show that the devaluation had a large and significantly negative effect on individuals' evaluations of subjective well-being. These results suggest that macroeconomic shocks, such as unanticipated currency devaluations, may have significant short-term costs in the form of reductions in people's sense of well-being.
See Less -
Policy Research Working Paper WPS7209 MAR 10, 2015
This is the Executive Directors Strategic Engagements Work Program and papers to be circulated from March 2015. Included in the report are checklists of action items.
... See More + The lists are separated by FY15 QIII, FY15 QIV and FY16 Q1.
See Less -
This Executive Directors' strategic engagements work program covers FY15 Q3, FY15 Q4, FY16 Q1, and also updated reports and other documents to be circulated for information.
... See More +See Less -
Some of the headings included in this issue of the Development Economics Prospects Group (DECPG) weekly global economic newsletter are as follows: Euro Area economic indicators have steadily weakened in recent months, increasing concerns that the bloc may be on a path of secular stagnation; and very low growth in the Euro Area could have deep repercussions for many other economies.
... See More +See Less -
Is there a "middle income trap"? Theory suggests that the determinants of growth at low and high income levels may be different. If countries struggle to transition from growth strategies that are effective at low income levels to growth strategies that are effective at high income levels, they may stagnate at some middle income level; this phenomenon can be thought of as a "middle income trap."
... See More + This paper does not find evidence for (unusual) stagnation at any particular middle income level. However, it does find evidence that the determinants of growth at low and high income levels differ. These findings suggest a mixed conclusion: middle-income countries may need to change growth strategies to transition smoothly to high-income growth strategies, but this can be done smoothly and does not imply the existence of a middle income trap.
See Less -
Policy Research Working Paper WPS7104 NOV 01, 2014
Some of the headings included in this issue of the Development Economics Prospects Group (DECPG) daily economic news are as follows: financial markets; high income economies; and developing economies in Sub-Saharan Africa.
... See More +See Less -
Newsletter 91086 JUL 07, 2014
Chen, Derek; Kambou, Gerard; Kim, Eung JuDisclosed