This paper estimates private sector credit cycles for most of the oil-importing and oil-exporting countries in the Middle East and North Africa.
... See More + Credit cycles are the medium-term component in spectral analysis of real private sector credit growth. In addition, the paper estimates the credit cycles for several Western countries and Japan. The analysis finds substantial differences and rare similarities between credit cycles in the Middle East and North Africa and developed countries. Over 1964-2017, credit cycles in the Middle East and North Africa do not appear to be associated with real gross domestic product growth. They only explain a fraction of the growth in private sector credit, and they do not seem to be synchronized across oil exporters and oil importers.
See Less -
Policy Research Working Paper WPS9602 NOV 19, 2019
This paper investigates the sources of capital misallocation across a group of 11 developing and developed countries. The main findings are (i) technological frictions, namely, adjustment costs and uncertainty, account for only a modest share of observed misallocation, leaving ample scope for other factors; (ii) heterogeneity in firm-level technologies potentially explains between one-quarter and one-half; but (iii) dispersion in markups is much smaller; and (iv) after accounting for these factors, on average, at least 50 percent of misallocation within each of these countries remains unexplained, suggesting a large role for additional, potentially distortionary factors.
... See More + These factors are largely attributable to a component that is correlated with firm size/productivity and one that is essentially permanent to the firm. The paper reports a broad set of moments describing firm-level investment dynamics and detailed parameter estimates on a country-by-country basis, with an eye toward future work in this area.
See Less -
Policy Research Working Paper WPS9031 OCT 01, 2019
This policy memo outlines the main points raised and discussed by the representatives ofthe Yemeni private sector in a meeting that was held in Amman on 27th January, 2019.
... See More + Themeeting was a follow up of previous meetings with several private sector bodies and representatives to discuss the formulation of the representative body of the private sector asa cluster. The main aim of the follow up meeting was to officially launch the private sectorcluster and highlight its roles and governance structure to ensure its participation in decisionmaking summarized in the three broad points: engaging the private sector in economic policy-making; enhancing the role of the private sector in humanitarian and development efforts; and engaging the private sector in recovery and reconstruction programs and efforts.
See Less -
The purpose of this background note is to give an overview of the literature on output volatility and economic growth, assess output volatility and its impact in São Tomé and Príncipe (STP).
... See More + This note is organized in four sections, besides this introductory part. The second section reviews the literature on the impact of output volatility on economic growth. The third section discusses different measures of volatility, calculating volatility for STP across different periods, and compares them to peer countries. The last section offers some policy recommendations. Output volatility and its relationship with growth have been a hot topic in economic research literature for a long time. There is significant controversy about how economic volatility1 affects economic growth. Although the link between economic growth and volatility is theoretically ambiguous, a negative impact of economic volatility on output growth dominates the empirical literature. This negative relationship also holds with newer and better datasets, advanced econometrics methodologies, and for specific country groups. There are three mains messages in this note. The first one is that volatility affects growth as supported by the literature review and the econometric estimations carried out in this note. The second one is that STP is a volatile country, although volatility of GDP growth and inflation has declined over time and are in line with peers. On the other hand, STP still faces higher volatility on current account balances and net lending and borrowing than its peers. The third message is that, on average, a fifty percent increase in volatility translates into a 25 percent decrease in GDP per capita growth rates. Finally, policy measures aimed at diversifying exports in terms of goods and markets, reduce the reliance on external finance and fiscal rules can help cushion the volatility and reduce its impact.
See Less -
Private schools that cater to low-income students are popular with parents seeking alternatives to government schools. But these private schools, which are often owned by local entrepreneurs, may lack the resources and incentives to expand enrollment or improve quality.
... See More + They generally operate in markets where access to credit is limited and where there aren't loan products tailored to their needs. This means that any improvements have to be financed through school fees or their own funds. When donors and investors step in to provide support to private schools, they tend to focus on larger operators with a chain of schools, which typically implies selective funding to a limited number of schools rather than broad support to the schooling market. Is this the best way to support private schools that cater to poor families? Could supporting the entire market, rather than select schools—or chains—lead to more competitive pressure to invest in quality improvements that promote students’ learning? And is a market for loans for private schools sustainable?
See Less -
