"The Impact of Microcredit on the Poor in Bangladesh: Revisiting the Evidence," by David Roodman and Jonathan Morduch (2014) (henceforth RM) is the most recent of a sequence of papers and web postings that seeks to refute the findings of the Pitt and Khandker (1998; henceforth PK) article "The Impact of Group-Based Credit on Poor Households in Bangladesh: Does the Gender of Participants Matter?"
... See More + that microcredit for women had significant, favorable effects on household consumption and other outcomes. In this version of RM, the authors have backed off many of their prior claims and methods after earlier replies noted their faults (see Pitt (1999), Pitt (2011a), Pitt (2011b), and Pitt and Khandker (2012)). Nonetheless, important claims against PK remain in this new version of RM and are addressed below. Readers should refer to Pitt and Khandker (2012) for a discussion of other issues with RM, including a discussion of the bimodal likelihood.
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Policy Research Working Paper WPS6801 MAR 01, 2014
This paper examines the association between the intensity, timing, and persistence of personal history of mobility on individual support for redistribution.
... See More + Using both rounds of the Life in Transition Survey, the paper builds measures of downward mobility for about 57,000 individuals from 27 countries in Eastern Europe and Central Asia. The analysis finds that more intensive, recent, and persistent downward mobility increases support for redistribution more. A number of extensions and checks are done by, among others, taking into account systematic bias in perceived mobility experience, considering an alternative definition of redistributive preferences, and exploring the severity of omitted variable bias problems. Overall, the results are robust.
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Policy Research Working Paper WPS6803 MAR 01, 2014
The key messages in this brief are as follows: 1) Science, Technology, Engineering and Mathematics (STEM)-related research output and impact are related to a regions long-run economic development. 2) The overall publication output by Sub-Saharan Africa has increased over the past ten years, but not all subregions have grown at the same pace. 3) While relative output in the Health Sciences has increased, relative output in the Physical Sciences/STEM has been stagnant. 4) The impact of research in the Health Sciences is much greater than that in Physical Sciences/STEM, even after controlling for differences in citation norms. 5) Science is an international enterprise, and research collaboration is an important driver of success.
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The key messages in this brief are as follows: 1) Science, Technology, Engineering and Mathematics (STEM)-related research output and impact are related to a regions long-run economic development. 2) The overall publication output by Sub-Saharan Africa has increased over the past ten years, but not all subregions have grown at the same pace. 3) While relative output in the Health Sciences has increased, relative output in the Physical Sciences/STEM has been stagnant. 4) The impact of research in the Health Sciences is much greater than that in Physical Sciences/STEM, even after controlling for differences in citation norms. 5) Science is an international enterprise, and research collaboration is an important driver of success.
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This paper formalizes the design of experiments intended specifically to study spillover effects. By first randomizing the intensity of treatment within clusters and then randomly assigning individual treatment conditional on this cluster-level intensity, a novel set of treatment effects can be identified.
... See More + The paper develops a formal framework for consistent estimation of these effects, provides explicit expressions for power calculations, and shows that the power to detect average treatment effects declines precisely with the quantity that identifies the novel treatment effects. A demonstration of the technique is provided using a cash transfer program in Malawi.
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Policy Research Working Paper WPS6824 MAR 01, 2014
Baird, Sarah; Bohren, Aislinn; McIntosh, Craig; Ozler, Berk
Using a global panel on research and development (R&D) expenditures, this paper documents that on average poor countries do far less R&D than rich as a share of GDP.
... See More + This is arguably counter intuitive since the gains from doing the R&D required for technological catch up are thought to be very high and Griffith et al (2004) have documented that in the OECD returns increase dramatically with distance from the frontier. Exploiting recent advances in instrumental variables in a varying coefficient context we find that the rates of return follow an inverted U: they rise with distance to the frontier and then fall thereafter, potentially turning negative for the poorest countries. The findings are consistent with the importance of factors complementary to R&D, such as education, the quality of scientific infrastructure and the overall functioning of the national innovation system, and the quality of the private sector, which become increasingly weak with distance from the frontier and the absence of which can offset the catch up effect. China's and India's explosive growth in R&D investment trajectories in spite of expected low returns may be justified by their importing the complementary factors in the form of multinational corporations who do most of the patentable research.
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Policy Research Working Paper WPS6811 MAR 01, 2014
Survey data from 120 developing countries are used to examine the relation between establishment size and age in the formal sector. Existing research suggests that manufacturing establishments in developing countries do not grow over time, most likely because of market imperfections and regulations.
... See More + To the contrary, this paper finds that the average plant in developing countries that is more than 40 years old employs almost five times as many workers as the average plant that is five years old or younger. The analysis finds consistent evidence when it looks within a large country, India, based on detailed manufacturing census data over 23 years. It also finds that differences in financial development across Indian states, while substantial, have a minor effect on firm growth, consistent with inefficiency of state-owned financial systems. These results hold controlling for differences in labor regulations across states, capital intensity, labor regulations, and firms born before and after the major reforms.
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Policy Research Working Paper WPS6718 DEC 01, 2013
The Resilience in Education Settings (RES)-Research training module, designed by the Education Resilience Approaches (ERA) Program, builds on the capacities of academics and education practitioners in fragile, conflict and violence affected contexts to undertake locally relevant and rigorous education resilience research.
... See More + Following a pilot in Central America, another 9 month-long training is being delivered in South Asia. In November 2013, the first of two face-to-face workshops took place in Delhi, India, with participants from across the South Asian region.
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This overview of the research sector in the Western Balkans is a companion piece to the Western Balkans regional research and development (R and D) strategy for innovation.
... See More + The strategy aims to strengthen the region's research capacity, enhance intraregional cooperation, promote collaboration with business sectors, explore possibilities for financing R and D from European Union (EU) funding schemes and other external sources, and help integrate the region into the European research area (ERA) and innovation union. This overview provides the background and analysis that informed the development of the strategy. The background work includes four studies on the different components of the research sector, a policy questionnaire, and seven country studies reviewing key policies, institutions, and performance of the national research sectors. This overview outlines the performance of the research and innovation sector, and describes the major drivers of this performance. It starts by presenting a framework of the different components of research and innovation in the Western Balkans. This leads into section two discussing the performance of the research sector, which has been improving, but still lags international benchmarks. This reflects a number of challenges facing the sector, including the effects of a substantial brain drain, insufficient funding and a mismatch between research facilities, and economic needs. Section three discusses the technology transfer system and its important role in the performance of the research and innovation sector as a whole. The contribution of technology transfer in the region is limited, as reflected for example, in the limited interaction between the research and enterprise sectors. The enterprise sector is discussed in section four. Section five describes the policy and institutional framework, pointing out a number of areas where this can be strengthened. This includes improving the career path for researchers, providing more funding through competitive processes as opposed to block grants, and continuing to strengthen policy co-ordination. The final section concludes.
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Working Paper 82010 OCT 21, 2013
Correa, Paulo; Zuniga, Pluvia; De Rosa, Donato; Vujovic, Dusan; Qasim, Qursum; Myburgh, Andrew; Lundkvist, Petter; Subhash, Hari
A coordinated effort to develop a regional research and development (R and D) strategy for innovation was launched by the Joint Statement of Sarajevo, signed on April 24, 2009, by the ministers from the Western Balkans (WB) responsible for science and research; the European Union (EU) commissioner for science and research; and the Czech Republic Presidency of the Council of the European Union, under the auspices of the regional cooperation council secretary general.
... See More + In June 2011, the World Bank signed an agreement with the European Commission (EC) to provide technical assistance for the development of the WB regional R and D strategy for innovation technical assistance (RIS-TA). The strategy aims to strengthen the region's research capacity, enhance intraregional cooperation, promote collaboration with business sectors, explore possibilities for financing R and D from EU funding schemes and other external sources, and help integrate the region into the European research area (ERA) and innovation union. This report is organized as follows: section one gives introduction; section two gives strategic context; section three describes reform program; section four presents action plan for regional cooperation; and section five presents proposed programs.
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Can project evaluation methods be used to evaluate programs: complex interventions involving multiple activities? A program evaluation cannot be based simply on separate evaluations of its components if interactions between the activities are important.
... See More + In this paper a measure is proposed, the total program effect (TPE), which is an extension of the average treatment effect on the treated (ATET). It explicitly takes into account that in the real world (with heterogeneous treatment effects) individual treatment effects and program assignment are often correlated. The TPE can also deal with the common situation in which such a correlation is the result of decisions on (intended) program participation not being taken centrally. In this context RCTs are less suitable even for the simplest interventions. The TPE can be estimated by applying regression techniques to observational data from a representative sample from the targeted population. The approach is illustrated with an evaluation of a health insurance program in Vietnam.
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Policy Research Working Paper WPS6587 SEP 01, 2013
Livestock are an important component of rural livelihoods in developing countries, but data about this source of income and wealth are difficult to collect because of the nomadic and semi-nomadic nature of many pastoralist populations.
... See More + Most household surveys exclude those without permanent dwellings, leading to undercoverage. This study explores the use of a random geographic cluster sample as an alternative to the household-based sample. In this design, points are randomly selected and all eligible respondents found inside circles drawn around the selected points are interviewed. This approach should eliminate undercoverage of mobile populations. The results of a random geographic cluster sample survey are presented with a total sample size of 784 households to measure livestock ownership in the Afar region of Ethiopia in 2012. The paper explores the data quality of the random geographic cluster sample relative to a recent household survey and discusses the implementation challenges.
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Policy Research Working Paper WPS6589 SEP 01, 2013
This brief summarizes the results of a gender impact evaluation study, entitled One-time transfers of cash or capital have long-lasting effects on microenterprises in Sri Lanka, conducted during the time period between 2005 to 2007 in Sri Lanka.
... See More + The study observed that found long lasting impacts from one-time grants given in a randomized experiment to subsistence firms. Two main patterns emerged from this follow up study: the male treated group always had higher profits than the control group, and the gap did not shrink over time; and females in the control have similar profits to females in the treatment group. For females, much of the treatment gets diverted from the business to the household. Also, women are more likely to work in industries with low economies of scale. Funding for the study derived from Gender Action Plan, NSF Grant.
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Brief 81396 AUG 14, 2013
Mel, Suresh De; McKenzie, David; Woodruff, Christopher
This brief summarizes the when is capital enough to get female enterprises growing? Evidence from a randomized experiment in Ghana. The treatment was staggered from May 2009-February 2010.
... See More + Standard models of investment predict that credit constrained firms should grow rapidly when given additional capital, and that how this capital is provided should not affect decisions to invest in the business or consume the capital. The authors randomly gave cash and in-kind grants to male- and female-owned microenterprises in urban Ghana. Their findings cast doubt on the ability of capital alone to stimulate the growth of female microenterprises. First, while the average treatment effects of the in-kind grants are large and positive for both males and females, the gain in profits is almost zero for women with initial profits below the median, suggesting that capital alone is not enough to grow subsistence enterprises owned by women. Second, for women they strongly reject equality of the cash and in-kind grants; only in-kind grants lead to growth in business profits. The results for men also suggest a lower impact of cash, but differences between cash and in kind grants are less robust. The difference in the effects of cash and in-kind grants is associated more with a lack of self-control than with external pressure. As a result, the manner in which funding is provided affects microenterprise growth.
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Brief 81522 AUG 14, 2013
Fafchamps, Marcel; McKenzie, David; Quinn, Simon; Woodruff, Christopher
The magnitude and persistence of growth in gross domestic product are topics of intense scrutiny by economists. Although the existing techniques provide a range of tools to study the nature of growth and volatility time series, these usually come with shortcomings, including the need to arbitrarily define acceleration spells, and focus on a particular frequency at a time.
... See More + This paper explores the application of "wavelet-based" techniques to study the time-varying nature of growth and volatility. These techniques lend themselves to a more robust analysis of short-term and long-term determinants of growth and volatility than the traditional decomposition techniques, as demonstrated on a small sample of countries. In addition to having desirable technical advantages, such as localization in time and frequency and the ability to work with non-stationary series, these techniques also make it possible to accurately decompose the association between growth trajectories of different countries over different time horizons. Such "co-movement" analysis can provide policy makers with important insights on regional integration, growth poles, and how short and long term developments in other countries affect their domestic economy.
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Policy Research Working Paper WPS6578 AUG 01, 2013