The need for safety nets in Sub-Saharan Africa is vast. In addition to being the world?s poorest region, Sub-Saharan Africa is also one of the most unequal.
... See More + In this context, redistribution must be seen as a legitimate way to fight poverty and ensure shared prosperity, and all the more so in countries where growth is driven by extractive industries that are not labor-intensive and often employ very few poor people. Given that most African countries face difficult decisions about how to allocate limited resources among a number of social programs, evidence is important. Do Safety Net programs actually benefit the poorest people? This book demonstrates with empirical evidence that it is possible to reach the poorest and most vulnerable people with safety net programs, and provides lessons for the effective use of targeting methods to achieve this outcome in the region. The book's introduction presents the rationale for targeting safety net programs to households that are chronically food insecure or vulnerable to food insecurity. A chapter on methods outlines the various ways that targeting can be carried out, along with providing technical details on proxy means test (PMT) and PMTplus methods. Seven case studies (Cameroon, Ghana, Kenya, Malawi, Mozambique, Niger, and Senegal) are then presented that document a variety of approaches and experiences in country targeting eff orts, taking into account country needs and existing programs. Each case study covers the extent of poverty and current safety net coverage, available data, targeting indicators chosen, procedures for long-term (and, in some cases, short-term) targeting, ex ante evaluation of targeting mechanisms, and key lessons learned. In the conclusion, the report discusses future challenges in regarding investments in data, procedures, and methods to improve program targeting. Particular emphasis is placed on the need for countries to invest in targeting methods and procedures to safeguard households against exposure to the negative short-term shocks that are prevalent in African countries.
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Publication 94117 JAN 26, 2015
del Ninno, Carlo [editor]; Mills, Bradford [editor]
In this paper the authors analyze the evolution and the determinants of in-work poverty in Poland, according to three poverty lines: relative, absolute, and the 1998-adjusted poverty line.
... See More + The authors find that behind moderately high in-work poverty incidence in Poland there is very high in-work poverty in agriculture and modest in-work poverty in all other sectors. Workers are much less likely to be poor than jobless individuals, especially the unemployed. In fact, the share of adults out of employment is a much stronger predictor of households' risk of poverty than the level of wages at which they work. Moreover, the share of jobless adults or of agricultural workers has become an increasing determinant of in-work poverty over time. The risk of in-work poverty is also inversely related to the educational attainment and the stability of employment of an individual, which is especially important considering that the incidence of temporary contracts in Poland is the highest across both European Union (EU) and Organization of Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) countries. Existing fiscal and benefit policies have not been sufficient to address in-work poverty and some of its underlying causes in the labor market: the author presents four policy recommendations aimed at tackling in-work and total poverty, and at increasing labor market participation and employment.
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Social policy in Mexico has focused on identifying and supporting chronically poor households. Yet, Mexico has a significant number of households that are just above the poverty line who are not eligible, by definition, for antipoverty programs and are at risk of falling back into poverty in the event of an economic crisis or shocks like loss of employment and natural disasters.
... See More + These shocks can have serious negative effects on welfare in the absence of social safety nets targeted to these households. This study uses household survey data to better understand these "vulnerable" households, including their profile and risk exposure and, more importantly, to document the extent to which these households are covered by public transfers and insurance mechanisms. The analysis shows that until 2010 most social programs, including the few with productive components, such as vocational training and productive investment grants, barely covered the vulnerable. The study concludes that public policies need to pay attention to the vulnerable households and find the right policy mix between targeted interventions and universal insurance schemes to serve this economic group.
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Policy Research Working Paper WPS7165 JAN 01, 2015
de la Fuente, Alejandro; Ortiz-Juarez, Eduardo; Rodriguez-Castelan, Carlos
By most measures, the 2000s were one of the most impressive decades for economic development in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC). With the exception of 2009, the regions gross domestic product per capita grew consistently at an average rate of 2.5 percent between 2000 and 2012.
... See More + During the same period, and despite being one of the most unequal regions in the world, inequalities reduced substantially. The regional Gini coefficient for per capita income, for instance, decreased by an unprecedented five percentage points, from 0.57 in 2000 to 0.52 in 2012. Sustained economic growth, joint with substantial reductions in income inequality, led to remarkable increases in the incomes of those at the bottom of the income distribution. Accordingly, poverty in LAC decreased by more than 16 percentage points within a single decade, from 41.6 percent in 2003 to 25.3 percent in 2012. Furthermore, extreme poverty was cut in half, from 24.5 percent to 12.3 percent (Figure 1).1 Overall, a remarkable 70 million people moved out of poverty: the strongest poverty reduction performance of the region in decades. In spite of these dramatic advances, one in four Latin Americans today remains poor. Those who experience shocks that cause them to fall temporarily into poverty are considered to be the transitory poor. However, many people are born into poverty and never escape their poverty status: these are the chronic poor. The chronic poor have not benefitted much from the impressive growth rates of the 2000s and may have fallen into the cracks of the social assistance system; they have been left behind. Furthermore, the prospects of them escaping poverty in the near future are weak. GDP growth has slowed significantly, from about six percent in 2010 to an estimated 0.8 percent in 2014. As a result, improved labor market prospects may not prove to be sufficient for the chronic poor to escape poverty.
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By most measures, the 2000s were one of the most impressive decades for economic development in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC). With the exception of 2009, the regions gross domestic product per capita grew consistently at an average rate of 2.5 percent between 2000 and 2012.
... See More + During the same period, and despite being one of the most unequal regions in the world, inequalities reduced substantially. The regional Gini coefficient for per capita income, for instance, decreased by an unprecedented five percentage points, from 0.57 in 2000 to 0.52 in 2012. Sustained economic growth, joint with substantial reductions in income inequality, led to remarkable increases in the incomes of those at the bottom of the income distribution. Accordingly, poverty in LAC decreased by more than 16 percentage points within a single decade, from 41.6 percent in 2003 to 25.3 percent in 2012. Furthermore, extreme poverty was cut in half, from 24.5 percent to 12.3 percent (Figure 1).1 Overall, a remarkable 70 million people moved out of poverty: the strongest poverty reduction performance of the region in decades. In spite of these dramatic advances, one in four Latin Americans today remains poor. Those who experience shocks that cause them to fall temporarily into poverty are considered to be the transitory poor. However, many people are born into poverty and never escape their poverty status: these are the chronic poor. The chronic poor have not benefitted much from the impressive growth rates of the 2000s and may have fallen into the cracks of the social assistance system; they have been left behind. Furthermore, the prospects of them escaping poverty in the near future are weak. GDP growth has slowed significantly, from about six percent in 2010 to an estimated 0.8 percent in 2014. As a result, improved labor market prospects may not prove to be sufficient for the chronic poor to escape poverty.
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Poverty estimates based on cross-section data provide static snapshots of poverty rates. Although a time series of cross-section data can offer some insights into poverty trends, it does not allow for an assessment of dynamics at the household level.
... See More + Such a dynamic perspective on poverty generally calls for panel data and this kind of analysis can usefully inform poverty reduction policy, notably the design of social protection interventions. Absent actual panel data for Senegal, this paper applies new statistical methods to construct synthetic panel data from two rounds of cross-section household surveys in 2005 and 2011. These data are used to study poverty transitions. The results suggest that, in marked contrast to the picture obtained from cross-section data, there exists a great deal of mobility in and out of poverty during this period. More than half the population experiences changes in its poverty status and more than two-thirds of the extreme (food) poor move up one or two welfare categories. Factors such as rural residence, disability, exposure to some kind of natural disaster, and informality in the labor market are associated with a heightened risk of falling into poverty. Belonging to certain ethnicities and factors such as migration, working in the non-agriculture sector, and having access to social capital are associated with a lower risk of falling into poverty.
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Policy Research Working Paper WPS7141 DEC 01, 2014
Dang, Hai-Anh H.; Lanjouw, Peter F.; Swinkels, Rob
Over the past decade (2003-12), Latin America has experienced strong income growth and a notable reduction in income inequality, with the region's Gini coefficient falling from 55.6 to 51.8.
... See More + Previous studies have warned about the sustainability of such a decline, and this paper presents evidence of stagnation in the pace of reduction of income inequality in Latin America since 2010. This phenomenon of stagnation is robust to different measures of inequality and is largely attributable to the impact of the Global Financial Crisis on Mexico and Central America, where inequality rose after 2010 as labor income recovered. Moreover, this paper finds evidence that much of the continuation of inequality reduction after the crisis at the country level has been due to negative or zero income growth for households in the top of the income distribution, and lower growth of the incomes of the poorest households. The crisis also highlighted weaknesses in the region's labor markets and the heavy reliance on public transfers to redistribute, underscoring the vulnerability of the region's recent social gains to global economic conditions.
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Policy Research Working Paper WPS7146 DEC 01, 2014
Fragility, conflict, and violence are at the heart of the World Bank Group strategy to attain the twin goals of ending poverty and promoting shared prosperity.
... See More + Establishment of fragility, conflict, and violence (FCV) as one of the cross-cutting solution areas under the Global Practice Vice Presidency reflects the high level of priority attached to this theme. The FCV cross-cutting solution area is expected to enhance a systematic and coordinated approach across the Bank Group. It is against this background that the Committee on Development Effectiveness (CODE) of the World Banks Board of Executive Directors agreed that there would be a follow-up evaluation to focus on Bank Group activities in countries not classified as fragile and conflict-affected. Recognizing the significant implications of conflict and violence to the attainment of the Bank Groups strategic goals the CODE agreed that the follow-up evaluation would capture the different nature of fragility and manifestations of violence in countries not on the World Bank Group list of fragile and conflict-affected situations. The CODE noted that such forms of fragility and violence could include IBRD and blend countries, small island states, fragility due to organized crime and violence, and fragility due to ethnic tensions. The evaluation is intended to respond to this demand and to broaden the Bank Groups perspectives on addressing the development challenges arising from conflict and violence.
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This paper examines support for reducing inequality and for income redistribution to specific groups in Europe and Central Asia. The paper uses the Life in Transition Survey to analyze cross-country differences in redistributive preferences and the determinants of individual-level differences in such preferences.
... See More + The analysis tests for various possible motivations, such as self-interest, beliefs about the fairness of the income-generating process, past social mobility experience, or expectations of future social mobility. Fewer people wanted to reduce the gap between the rich and the poor in 2010 than in 2006 in transition countries. Support for redistribution toward specific groups is highest for the disabled and the elderly, but there is high heterogeneity across countries in support for various redistributive policies, as well as in the alignment between average beliefs and actual policies. The empirical analysis confirms the importance of beliefs about fairness in influencing redistributive preferences, together with self-interest and past and expected social mobility in European Union member states (Western European and new member states), but only to a limited extent in the non-European Union member state group of transition countries. Regarding redistribution to specific groups, self-interest appears to be an important motivation for support for the elderly and families with children, whereas values and beliefs are important drivers of support for the working poor and the unemployed. Although framing matters, the results are broadly robust to alternative measures of support for reducing inequality.
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Policy Research Working Paper WPS7097 NOV 01, 2014
In 2013, the World Bank adopted two goals: First, reduce global extreme poverty to 3 percent by 2030. Second, promote shared prosperity defined as the income growth of the bottom 40 percent of the population within a country.
... See More + This paper simulates the global poverty headcount under three growth scenarios for the bottom 40 percent up to 2030. The analysis deploys a set of "shared prosperity premiums," in which the bottom 40 percent in each country grows at a differential rate from the projected growth in the mean. With no distributional change, the global headcount reaches between 6.7 and 4.7 percent in 2030, depending on the average growth scenario used for the simulations. However, if the incomes of the bottom 40 percent grow 2 percentage points faster than the mean, the World Bank's poverty goal is achieved with the global poverty falling to below 3 percent in 2030 in the scenarios which average growth rates are extrapolated from the early 2000s. While such a "shared prosperity premium" is not unprecedented in recent growth spells, maintaining it over 20 years in every country is optimistic. The paper shows that in the baseline growth scenario, the global poverty rate could either reach the 3 percent target, or be close to 10 percent, depending on the "shared prosperity premium."
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Policy Research Working Paper WPS7106 NOV 01, 2014
This is a statement by Mr. Koen Geens, Minister of Finance of Belgium at the ninetieth meeting of the Development Committee held on October 11, 2014.
... See More + He discusses that the World Bank Group's (WBG's) shared prosperity goal, which we adopted at the 2013 spring development committee meeting, has expanded the boundaries of the organization's traditional mission. The need for this shift in paradigm is also emerging from the findings of the 2014 global monitoring report that states that, to eradicate extreme poverty by 2030, promoting economic growth will not be sufficient. The shared prosperity goal should lead to an overhaul of the WBG's strategies, products, and partnerships. It is expected that the WBG to be a forerunner in the international debate on combating inequality, including in the discussions on sustainable development goals post 2015. The WBG should not shy away from examining and presenting responses to forces pushing towards greater inequality, notably inequality of wealth.
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Although poverty reduction has been a mainstay of its work for decades, the World Bank has for the first time, committed to a specific poverty reduction target to guide its work.
... See More + Similarly, the goal to boost shared prosperity gives more explicit attention to inclusive growth than has been the case in the past and paves the way for a focus on inequality, not only of opportunity but also of final outcomes. The goals seek to provide the global development community with a unified sense of purpose and to galvanize action around clear and easily communicable objectives. This report goes beyond motivating the importance of the new goals, to focusing squarely on issues of measurement and data. The objective of the report is to articulate what measuring the poverty and shared prosperity goals entails and to identify areas where improvements in data are needed to assess and monitor them. The chapters lay out the conceptual underpinnings of the World Bank's two goals and assess what reaching them will require; discuss the relative strengths and weaknesses of the goals by contrasting them with alternative indicators; and present empirical approaches to tracking progress. This policy research report is structured in three parts, mirroring the three broad aims of the report. The first part provides a general overview of the conceptual underpinnings of the two goals and their assessment. The second part places the World Bank's two goals in a wider context. The third part of the report specifically addresses issues related to the empirical monitoring of the goals in greater technical detail.
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This brief on Cyprus displays the trends, performance, demographics, contributors, and national data related to poverty and prosperity development.
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This brief on Estonia displays the trends, performance, demographics, contributors, and national data related to poverty and prosperity development.
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This brief on Greece displays the trends, performance, demographics, contributors, and national data related to poverty and prosperity development.
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This brief on Latvia displays the trends, performance, demographics, contributors, and national data related to poverty and prosperity development.
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This brief on Lithuania displays the trends, performance, demographics, contributors, and national data related to poverty and prosperity development.
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This brief on Poland displays the trends, performance, demographics, contributors, and national data related to poverty and prosperity development.
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