This note assesses whether social protection programs are adequately financed in mainland Tanzania. We find that social protection programs are an important component of Government expenditures, and complements other Government social spending, including education and health spending.
... See More + In recent years, the Government has strengthened social protection by: (i) increasing social protection expenditures; (ii) shifting social assistance from generally inefficient food and in-kind programs to more efficient cash-based programs; (iii) shifting social assistance from relatively untargeted programs to those which are targeted to poor people; and (iv) easing demand side constraints faced by households investing in human capital. Despite these positive developments, challenges to social protection remain: (i) social assistance and employment programs remain underfunded relative to the needs of the population; (ii) development partner financing remains crucial even though they are prone to external risks; (iii) little isknown about which social welfare services and employment programs work well; (iv) many pensionparameters are not in line with best-practice and therefore, sustainability can be improved; (v) generalized subsidies, which are notoriously bad instruments to target poor people, are absorbing Government resources in a tight fiscal environment.
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Despite a situation of an active violent conflict, the Yemen Emergency CrisisResponse Project continues to deliver services and cash to the poor and vulnerablenationwide.
... See More + This paper captures lessons learned from this innovative and pioneering project,which will be particularly relevant for shaping the World Bank's crisis response under IDA 18.
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Iraq’s overall security situation has notably improved after the defeat of ISIS, but significant challenges lie ahead. Iraq has witnessed major political and security transitions in 2017 when Prime Minister Al-Abadi announced in December the victory over ISIS after a war that lasted three years.
... See More + The defeat of ISIS in Iraq left the government with the daunting tasks of rebuilding the country’s infrastructure, reconstruction of liberated areas, establishing security and stability,and providing services for the return of the displaced persons. On May 12, 2018 Iraq voted in parliamentary elections that delivered a win for a political bloc led by Moqtada al-Sadr, while PM Al-Abadi’s bloc, once seen as front runner, came in third. The ballots have been recounted after allegations of fraud and completed on August 8th without major change. On September 15th, Iraq’s parliament elected lawmaker Mohammed al-Halbousi as speaker, marking a major step towards establishing a new government. On October 2nd, Iraq’s parliament elected as president Barham Salih,who immediately named Adel Abdul Mahdi Prime Minister-designate, ending months of deadlock afterthe national election in May.
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The Kenyan Economy is on a rebound in 2018. Reflecting improved rains, better business sentiment and easing of political uncertainty, economic activity is rebounding after the slowdown in activity in 2017.
... See More + According to official statistics, the economy expanded from 4.7 percent in H1 of 2017 to 6.0 percent in H1 of 2018 supported by improved harvest in agriculture, steady recovery in industrial activity, and still robust performance in the services sector. As a result, real GDP growth is projected to reach 5.7 percent in 2018, an upward revision of 0.2 percentage points from the April 2018 Economic Update. Growth in private consumption and investment are driving the rebound. Private consumption picked up in 2018 fueled by rising household incomes from improved agricultural harvests, lower food prices, and strong remittance inflows. A recovery in private sector investment activity is also underway, partly reflected in increased imports of raw materials and chemicals and more positive investor sentiment with the Purchasing Managers’ Index remaining in expansionary territory (above the 50- mark) for H1 2018 at 55.1 points compared to 49.7 points over the same period in 2017. The recovery in private sector activity (consumption and investment) is expected to off-set potential drag in growth due to unwinding of fiscal stimulusat a time when fiscal consolidation is gathering momentum. Net exports continued to weigh on growth owing to faster expansion in imports relative to Kenya’s exports. There are three key policy recommendations from this analysis. First, the government could consider expanding direct cash transfer programs. Cash transfer programs are well-targeted so that a large fraction of the benefits are captured by the poor. These programs could further be expanded in order to increase their poverty-reducing effect. However, this will require enhancing revenue mobilization for the coverage to increase significantly. Second, exemptions granted within Kenya’s VAT regime appear to benefit the poor only marginally. The variation in consumption shares of exempt and zero-rated items across the welfare distribution is small. A review of the VAT law might help remove exemptions and increase revenue that could then be spent in well-targeted and progressive cash transfer programs. However, a more detailed follow-up analysis of exemptions and zero-rates would be necessary to determine item-level incidence. Third and finally, shifting public resources from higher-level health facilities to lower-level facilities is likely to benefit the poor. Conditional on uptake, public health spending on outpatient care is pro-poor while the associated user fees and over the counter purchases are regressive. The results suggest that redirecting spending from higher-level public health facilities to primary care facilities has the potential to benefit the poor and might increase access.
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Working Paper (Numbered Series) 130556 OCT 01, 2018
