Global capital rebalancing has highlighted structural weakness and vulnerability in South Asia, acting as a wake-up call for policy makers. While recent economic developments in advanced countries are encouraging, large parts of the South Asian region continue to slow.
... See More + Portfolio capital outflows, triggered by the prospect of unwinding quantitative easing in the US, have made current account deficits more difficult to finance across emerging countries. Meanwhile, supply-side constraints and macroeconomic imbalances remain to be tackled in most South Asian countries. But the depreciation of regional currencies offers a great opportunity to kick start exports and growth, and provides the space to re-engage reforms to create a conducive investment climate. This paper on the biannual regional economic update and outlook for South Asia includes the following headings: recent economic developments; outlook and policy; focus: business cycle transmission to and within South Asia; South Asia country briefs on Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Maldives, Nepal, Paklsitan, and Sri lanka; South Asia at a glance; and notes.
See Less -
The political and social upheavals that followed the Arab Spring of 2011 continue to dominate economic activity and near term prospects in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA).
... See More + Prior to the Arab Spring, aggregate investment and foreign direct investment (FDI) flows to MENA followed the rest of the world. This report shows that political turbulence since the early 2000s has affected not only the level of FDI in MENA, but also its composition. It has skewed towards activities that create the least jobs or that create jobs in non-resource tradable manufacturing and services needed for export upgrading and diversification. By hurting these efficiency-seeking investments, shocks to political stability exacerbate the clustering of FDI in the extractive industries and non-resource tradable sectors. The findings of the report outline several policy challenges and priorities. The report argues that MENA countries may find themselves in a resource trap unless they strengthen institutions and improve the investment climate, especially political and macroeconomic stability. Protecting the rule of law and property rights, and committing to stable and transparent policies will encourage investment, especially foreign investment in the labor-intensive non-oil manufacturing and service sectors of MENA, and thus job creation, growth, and structural transformation. Structural reforms address privileged businesses, macroeconomic imbalances, expensive subsidies, inadequate provision of infrastructure services, problems with education, and poorly functioning labor markets. These structural issues constrain growth with grim consequences for the unemployment problem, especially among youth and women. Achieving a consensus on political reforms is a necessary pre-requisite for sustainable, high growth in developing MENA.
See Less -
This overview, followed by five supporting reports, identifies these challenges of tomorrow, points to key choices ahead, and recommends not just what needs to be reformed, but how to undertake the reforms.
... See More + The overview is divided into nine chapters. The first chapter examines the characteristics of Chinas development since 1978; considers future opportunities, challenges, and risks; and describes a vision of China in the year 2030. The second chapter maps a new strategy that will realize this vision, focusing on the key choices ahead for China to sustain rapid economic and social development and become a modern, harmonious, and creative high-income society before 2030. Chapters three to eight elaborate on each of the six pillars of the new strategy: consolidating Chinas market foundations; enhancing innovation; promoting green development; ensuring equality of opportunity and social protection for all; strengthening public finances; and achieving mutually beneficial win-win relations between China and the rest of the world. The ninth and final chapter addresses implementation challenges, including the sequencing of reforms and overcoming obstacles that are likely to emerge.
See Less -
This overview, followed by five supporting reports, identifies these challenges of tomorrow, points to key choices ahead, and recommends not just what needs to be reformed, but how to undertake the reforms.
... See More + The overview is divided into nine chapters. The first chapter examines the characteristics of Chinas development since 1978; considers future opportunities, challenges, and risks; and describes a vision of China in the year 2030. The second chapter maps a new strategy that will realize this vision, focusing on the key choices ahead for China to sustain rapid economic and social development and become a modern, harmonious, and creative high-income society before 2030. Chapters three to eight elaborate on each of the six pillars of the new strategy: consolidating Chinas market foundations; enhancing innovation; promoting green development; ensuring equality of opportunity and social protection for all; strengthening public finances; and achieving mutually beneficial win-win relations between China and the rest of the world. The ninth and final chapter addresses implementation challenges, including the sequencing of reforms and overcoming obstacles that are likely to emerge.
See Less -
This book examines the state and the fate of the Doha Development Agenda (DDA). The volume has three key objectives: to provide qualitative and quantitative information about the implications of what is currently on the table; to examine controversial areas where further progress might be made; and to identify lessons that might be of use for future negotiations.
... See More + The analysis provides some suggestions for future negotiations, whether they involve comprehensive renegotiation of issues covered under the Doha Agenda, or entirely new negotiations. Conclusions include: there is much in the proposals already on the table; substantially more might be achieved in some key areas; and there is a case for new approaches in future negotiations. Finally, the volume identifies several critical trade-related matters that lie outside the DDA, such as the trade and trade policy implications of climate change mitigation, exchange rate management, food security, and energy security.
See Less -
Publication 65456 NOV 01, 2011
Martin, Will; Bouët, Antoine; Grant, Jason; Brown, Chad P.; Anderson, Kym; Mattoo, Aaditya; Laborde, David; Blandford, David; Gootiiz, Batshur; Hoekman, Bernard; Subramanian, Arvind; Borchert, Ingo; van der Mensbrugghe, Dominique; Prusa, Thomas J.; Winkler, Deborah; Nelgen, Signe; Meilke, Karl; Taylor, Benjamin J.; Josling, Tim; Wilson, John S.
Lao PDR's real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth will remain robust in 2011 with projected growth of 8.6 percent compared to 8.4 percent in 2010.
... See More + Natural resources and manufacturing sectors are expected to drive growth this year. The expected growth in the garment exports (by about 15-20 percent in this year) follows the European Union (EU) relaxation in raw material sourcing requirement and increased orders by key garment producers. The service sector also shows signs of improvement, particularly in transport, tourism (hotels and restaurants) and retail trading. Agriculture (fishery, livestock and crops) is expected to benefit from the recent increase in regional demand and higher food prices. Out of 8.6 percent growth in 2011, about 3.6 percentage points come from the resource sectors, about 1 percentage point each from manufacturing and agriculture, 0.5 percentage points from construction and 2.5 percentage points from services. Although overall trade balance is expected to improve the current account deficit is expected to widen slightly too about 9.4 percent of GDP in 2011 from about 8.6 percent in 2010 mainly on the account of larger transfers of profits and debt service payments abroad by large resource projects. Thus, resource current account surplus is expected to decrease to 4.8 percent of GDP in this year from about 5.5 percent in 2010.
See Less -
According to the national accounts of Iran, during the period of 1988-2003 the annual change in inventories in this economy was highly variable and averaged 7.3 percent of GDP if calculated at current prices.
... See More + In an ideal economy with no distortions, change in inventories should be zero on average for a sufficiently large period. Because of inefficiencies and statistical errors, in developing countries it typically falls in a range between one and two percent of GDP. The figure for Iran exceeds not only this range, but also economy's real GDP growth, which averaged 4.3 percent for this period. In this paper the authors argue that variation in the change in inventories in Iran could be explained by a number of factors including: impact of cost of capital effect and supply shocks expectations in a context of high dependency on the oil revenues and imports of capital or intermediary goods; periodical softening and hardening of budget constraints of the public enterprises; variations in statistical errors related to differentials between PPI and CPI inflation; and possibly shifting financial constraints which may bind on private purchases of goods and services. Further, there is evidence to suggest that high average change in inventories could be explained by capital flight hidden in the imports statistics, by wasting some of the over accumulated inventories under the soft budget constraint, and by statistical errors and omissions.
See Less -
Working Paper (Numbered Series) 37849 SEP 01, 2006
This is the Annual Report on the operation of the International Centre for Settlement of Investment Disputes (ICSID) required by Article 6(1)(g) of the Convention on the Settlement of Investment Disputes between States and Nationals of Other States.
... See More + This Annual Report covers the fiscal year July 1, 2005 to June 30, 2006. In fiscal year 2006, the number of ICSID pending cases reached an all-time high of 118. The total number of conciliation and arbitration proceedings registered with the Centre since its inception rose to 210 with the addition of 26 new arbitration cases instituted in the course of the fiscal year. The Secretariat continued its efforts to mitigate the impact of the significant caseload involving large and complex disputes by promoting more efficient ways of case management. During the year, ICSID's membership grew to 143 Contracting States following the ratification of the ICSID Convention by Syria.
See Less -
This regional report for Khabarovsk Krai in Russia is part of a survey that was conducted in the period from February the 1st to October the 17th, in 15 regions of Russia: Irkutsk, Nizhniy Novgorod, Novosibirsk, Rostov, Perm, Sakhalin, Kaliningrad, Leningrad, Moscow, Sverdlovsk, Tomsk and Novgorod Oblasts, Khabarovsk Krai and the cities of Saint Petersburg and Moscow.
... See More + Among the procedures that imply obtaining land plot either as ownership or tenancy the overwhelming majority of legal entities and sole proprietors that attempted, underwent, or completed locating procedures in 2004 passed the procedure for obtaining tenancy rights. In respect to legal entities and sole proprietors providing intermediary services for locating procedures, it is impossible to pick out any tendency on account of low count of the respondents who passed the appropriate procedures. The most frequently completed procedure connected with real estate objects (building, structure, premise) for ARCS companies became the procedure of leasing a real estate object (building, structure, premise), which is municipal property without the procedure of tender (including purposive appointment cases). This paper includes a main report and an annex.
See Less -
This paper first explains the potential importance of World Trade Organization (WTO) accession as a development tool, and discusses the recent successful development models and the role of trade policy in their development.
... See More + The paper then summarizes the three parts of the Handbook. The first part treats trade policy (with applications to Russia and the Commonwealth of Independent States [CIS]). The second part treats World Trade Organization institutions and disciplines, again with Russia and CIS applications. And the third part focuses on various aspects of the impact of WTO accession on Russia.
See Less -
This Sourcebook has been prepared to help in implementing the World Bank's current rural strategy, by sharing information on investment options and innovative approaches that will aid the design of future lending programs for agriculture.
... See More + The Sourcebook provides generic good practices and many examples that demonstrate that investment in agriculture can provide rewarding and sustainable returns to development efforts. The contents have been assembled from all regions and thematic groups of the Bank, and from the experiences of many partners. The Sourcebook is intended as a ready reference for practitioners (World Bank staff and their partners in borrowing countries) seeking summary information on the state of the art about good practice for agricultural investments, and innovative activities that merit close monitoring for potential scaling up. The Sourcebook is divided into eleven self-contained modules. Each module contains three different types of subunits, which can also be stand-alone documents. The Sourcebook thus provides introductions to topics, but not detailed guidelines on " how to " design and implement investments. The standalone nature of each subunit of the Sourcebook allows flexibility and adaptability of the materials, but necessarily results in some replication of the issues covered.
See Less -
Globalization is fact of life. As a result of innovations in transportation and communications and the opening up of economies world wide, the nations of the world are now irrevocably bound together.
... See More + Recognizing this reality, Cambodia decided to join the World Trade Organization (WTO). Although the accession process was an ordeal, and Cambodia had to agree to terms that were beyond the norm for least developed countries, in the end it accepted the challenge. The rationale is clear - at home it has a rapidly growing workforce and not nearly enough jobs to employ them. Beyond its borders there is fierce and increasing competition. A thriving and competitive private sector will help in creating sustainable jobs. One of the keys to private sector growth, especially for a country of Cambodia's size and stage of development, is international trade. As two decades of economic integration have shown, countries with the highest trade to GDP ratios, experience growth which averaged 3.5 percent per year in the 1980s, and 5 percent per year in the 1990s. At the same time, countries that did not integrate had average GDP growth of only 0.8 percent in the 1980s and 1.5 percent in the 1990s. However for trade to be mutually beneficial, it has to be governed by a common set of principles. These must commit parties to openness, transparency, predictability, non-discrimination and rule-based dispute resolution. By joining the WTO Cambodia aims not only to improve market access, and gain fairer treatment from powerful trading partners around the world, but we also to send a strong signal to potential investors that Cambodia is a good place to do business. However, Cambodia will only benefit if its businesses understand the rules of the new trading environment so that they can take advantage of new opportunities and also cope with new challenges. For this reason this Guide was prepared --to inform the private sector about the WTO. The Guide is organized into two main sections. The first presents a detailed overview of WTO rules and policies. The second part examines the probable impact that WTO membership will have on a number of different sectors; it gives a broad overview of the market for each sub-sector, the challenges that Cambodian businesses will face, and also provides sources for further information on each market.
See Less -
Working Paper 36842 MAR 01, 2005
Woods, David (World Trade Agenda Consultants)English
Developing countries have a substantial interest in totally integrating agriculture under the multilateral trade regime. Approximately 73 percent of the poor in developing countries live in rural areas, and the agriculture sector employs a large segment of the labor force.
... See More + Unfortunately agricultural exports from developing countries have experienced limited growth in the markets of industrialized countries, in large measure because of high trade barriers and agricultural subsidies in these markets. This report analyzes some important cases concerning the future of agricultural policy and its role in development, including putting forth some proposals for reform, which can considered in current trade negotiations.
See Less -
This report discusses six studies on current issues and future prospects for Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Georgia (the South Caucasus region) for trade flows, trade facilitation, roads, railroads, telecommunications and tourism.
... See More + The basic premise of these studies is that for the region as a whole, the major economic benefit from a peace settlement will come from the benefits of trade. A common theme emerging from these six studies is that closed borders, blockades, and war-damaged infrastructure provide only a partial explanation for the dramatic drop in exports of the three countries. Even in areas where no serious political obstacles to commerce exist, there are institutional, bureaucratic and structural barriers to trade that will need to be lifted, before trade will expand and the countries can reap any substantial economic benefits from a re-opening of borders.
See Less -
One of the main reasons Cambodia joined the World Trade Organization (WTO) was to use its membership as a springboard for promoting a credible, open and fair business environment.
... See More + In joining the WTO, the government of Cambodia promised to enact a total of 47 regulations and laws that, if properly enforced, would foster investment and accelerate economic growth. The government agreed to a Work Program through which most of these laws would be completed by 2006; however, as of July 2006, only 19 laws and regulations have been adopted. The business community in Cambodia, particularly foreign companies, is paying close attention to whether or not the government delivers on these commitments. The slow pace at which the necessary laws have been developed could negatively impact Cambodia's efforts to attract foreign investment, and therefore to provide some of the jobs required by the 230,000-plus entrants to the labor market each year. This issue of the Business Issues Bulletin looks at the current status and expected timeframes of seven key commercial laws that formed part of Cambodia's WTO agreement: Secured Transactions Law, Commercial Leasing Law, Law on the Issuance and Trade of Non-Government Securities, Insolvency Law, Commercial Contracts Law, Competition Law, and Commercial Court Law.
See Less -
Brief 37577 JAN 01, 2005
Thora, Mao; Sannisith, Sum; Naron, Hang Chuon; Kun, AndyEnglish
Analyzing the experience of Mexico under the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), "Lessons from NAFTA" aims to provide guidance to Latin American and Caribbean countries considering free trade agreements with the United States.
... See More + The authors conclude that the treaty raised external trade and foreign investment inflows and had a modest effect on Mexico's average income per person. It is likely that the treaty also helped achieve a modest reduction in poverty and an improvement in job quality.
See Less -
Publication 34435 JAN 01, 2005
Maloney, William F.; Serven, Luis; Lederman, DanielEnglish
The report discusses the challenges and opportunities that a Free Trade Agreement (FTA) between the United States of America (USA) and Central America poses to the farming and agro-industry sectors in Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, and Nicaragua.
... See More + The study focuses on the importance of a FTA from two standpoints: guaranteeing greater regional market access of exports, particularly agricultural products, into the USA, and, promoting liberalization among the region's domestic markets on imports from the USA, particularly those products considered "sensitive" in the region. Several recommendations are suggested for trade negotiations, taking into account the lessons learned from Mexico with the North America Free Trade Agreement - NAFTA, the existing protectionism in the USA to its agricultural products, as well as the inherent characteristics of such sectors within Central American countries. Furthermore, highlighted is the importance of complementing tax exemptions in the case of the region's "sensitive" goods, with the design and adoption of regional common internal policies, so that producers may compete in the near future, within an environment of greater trade liberalization.
See Less -
Working Paper 35965 JUN 01, 2003
Monge-Gonzalez, Ricardo; Gonzalez-Vega, Claudio; Loria-Sagot, Miguel