Poland is aging. In another three decades, more than half of the country's population will be over50.7 years old, 10.4 years more than the current median age of 40.3 years.
... See More + The share ofindividuals 65 years and older will rise to 33 percent, up from 17 percent today. The mostsubstantial relative change in the share will take place in the oldest-old age group (80 ), whichwill triple. Poland records one death every 1 minute and one birth every 2 minutes, and withfewer children being born every year, the country's population will eventually shrink to 34.4million by 2050, 4 million lesser than the current level of 38.4 million. Poland is not alone in this respect: in recent decades, the combination of low fertility and longer life expectancy, among other factors, has led to an increased proportion of older people in all EU member states. Since 2000, fertility rates have slightly increased in several European countries, but they are expected to remain close to, or below, 2.1 children per woman, the rate needed for long-term replacement of the population (Kohler and Ortega 2003). Throughout Europe, mortality among older people has fallen substantially since the 1970s (Christensen et al. 2009), largely as a result of falling mortality from cardiovascular disease (Glei and Meslé 2010), which can be attributed to a combination of improved lifestyles, prevention, and treatment (Laatikainen 2005). Indeed, the fall in mortality among older people is now the main contributor to population aging, though other elements of population dynamics, such as migration and fluctuating birth rates, are also noteworthy in the discussion of aging populations.
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According to a report by the World Bank published in April 2018, air pollution in Tehran incurs annual loss of billions of dollars and over 4,000 premature deaths from exposure to fine particles ambient concentrations.
... See More + Particulate matter (PM), one of the primary pollutants from diesel exhaust, is associated with many different types of respiratory and cardiovascular effects, and premature mortality. The main objective of this study is to evaluate the cost effectiveness of retrofitting existing city diesel bus fleet in Tehran with best available Diesel particulate filters (DPFs) available in the market. The report provides an updated assessment on the diesel retrofit solutions for an ageing diesel city bus fleet in Tehran based on publicly available information. The economic benefits of DPF installed in buses are evaluated with standard techniques of environmental economics, and technological assumptions about how much PM emissions can be avoided and control costs. The report highlights a number of national, regional and local examples of effective emission control program that exhibit best practices from around the world. Also, it presents important features and global experiences of successful retrofit program on heavy-duty diesel vehicles (HDDVs), including benefit-cost analysis from several case studies to help Tehran city leadership in taking informed economic and policy decisions. Finally, it recommends a set of critical actions to the government both at the national and local level for implementation of an effective emission control programs.
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Population aging – resulting from falling fertility rates, declining mortality, and increased longevity – shapes the profile and the needs of an increasing number of countries.
... See More + How effective has the World Bank been in tailoring its toolkit to provide an adequate response? This proposed evaluation is the first at IEG to assess the World Bank contribution to diagnosing client countries’ demographic issues related to population aging; understanding the variance in policy needs and context specificities; and providing vision, tools, and resources to respond to challenges in countries at different stages of aging.
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Greece’s current pension system relies almost exclusively on the state and remains staunchly pay-as-you-go (PAYG) and defined benefit (DB). This paper offers a radical proposal for change: (i) a new multi-pillar notional and financial defined contribution (NDC and FDC) pension system for all generations first insured after 1993, with contribution rates for primary pensions reduced by 50 percent; and (ii) a transitional system for those first insured before 1993.
... See More + The proposal’s robustness is tested actuarially for the period up to 2060. Though financing the legacy cost would be challenging, the quantitative exercise indicates that a radical pension reform, especially if implemented as a part of an overall recovery package, could set the country on a more favorable growth trajectory.
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Working Paper (Numbered Series) 136547 APR 01, 2019
This paper discusses the potential expansion of the role of the notional defined contribution (NDC) paradigm in the ongoing reforms of retirement provision in China.
... See More + It finds that mature age life expectancy is remarkably uniform among formal sector workers at the time of retirement, although greater heterogeneity does exist for Rural and Urban Residents Pension Scheme members. The implications of a stylized NDC structure are examined covering China’s major pension systems, calibrated to be actuarially neutral. Each system has a different contribution rate and retirement age, consistent with different life expectancies. A complementary social pension is also proposed. The paper concludes that an increased presence of the NDC paradigm has the potential to raise aggregate welfare.
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Working Paper (Numbered Series) 136542 APR 01, 2019
Latvia introduced a nonfinancial defined contribution (NDC) scheme in 1996 as it transitioned to a market economy. Despite a 20 percent decline in the working-age population from 1994–2016, the ratio of contributors to old-age pensioners rose from 1.6 to 2.1 given a steady increase in formal labor force participation and 5-6 percent real per capita wage growth.
... See More + Projections show that long-term financial balance will be maintained through 2070, despite the threat of a projected 50 percent decline in the working-age population. Budgeted reserves will cushion the continued transition into a two-pillar public pension scheme. Latvia’s most important long-term policy challenge is to create the domestic investments and economic growth to reward younger workers for remaining in the country.
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Working Paper (Numbered Series) 136546 APR 01, 2019
