Global Monthly November 2018 Overview Table of Contents  Global growth is moderating amid tightening financial Monthly Highlights...........................................2 conditions and weakening trade and industrial activity. Special Focus ....................................................6  Global equity prices continued to decline in November, but Recent Prospects Group Publications ...................8 recent currency and capital outflow pressures have Recent World Bank Working Papers....................8 moderated in emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs). Recent World Bank Reports ...............................8  Commodity prices dropped in November driven by a Table A: Major Data Releases ............................8 combination of rising supply and weakening demand Table B: Activity and Inflation...........................9 prospects. Table C: Trade and Finance..............................9  The recovery in EMDE commodity exporters has softened, Table D: Financial Markets ............................10 while activity indicators in EMDEs affected by recent financial stress have deteriorated. Table E: Commodity Prices..............................10 Chart of the Month Crude oil prices, nominal  Brent crude oil price fell from $86/bbl in early October to $59/bbl by end-November, the sharpest two-month decline since January 2015. The West Texas Intermediate dropped to $51/bbl, its lowest level since October 2017.  Supply fears that pushed oil prices up during the summer eased after the United States announced waivers to its sanctions on Iran for some countries, and following higher- than-expected output in the United States and Saudi Arabia.  OPEC and non-OPEC producers are expected to discuss possible production cuts at a meeting on December 6th. Source: Bloomberg. Note: Last observation is November 29, 2018. Special Focus: The Implications of Tariffs for Commodity Markets  Growing trade tensions since the start of 2018, including the imposition of tariffs by some large economies, have had a material impact on commodity markets.  Tariffs have resulted in trade diversion and widening price differentials of commodities among countries, but impacts have varied depending on whether tariffs were commodity-specific or imposed on a broad range of products. ɨF(MPCBM.POUIMZJTBQVCMJDBUJPOPGUIF(MPCBM.BDSPFDPOPNJDT5FBNPGUIF1SPTQFDUT(SPVQJOUIF%FWFMPQNFOU&DPOPNJDT7JDF 1SFTJEFODZɨJTFEJUJPOXBTQSFQBSFECZ.BSD4UPDLFSBOE$PMMFUUF8IFFMFS CBTFEPODPOUSJCVUJPOTGSPN&VOH+V,JN #SFOU)BSSJTPO  Patrick Kirby, Peter Nagle, Yoki Okawa, Julia Roseman, Rudi Steinbach, Temel Taskin, Ekaterine Vashakmadze, Dana Vorisek, Jinxin 8 V B  O 4B E O EZ  : F ɨ JT ( M PCBM. PO  U Z IM SFì FDT UEBUB B BJM W B F CM VQ  U / PW P FNCFS  ' PS NPSF JOGPSNB UJPO WJT  JUwww.worldbank.org/en/ research/brief/economic-monitoring. November 2018 Monthly Highlights FIGURE 1.A Global growth Global growth: moderating. Global growth slowed in 18Q3, to an estimated 2.5 percent (q/q saar) from 3.4 percent in 18Q2 'JHVSF" ɨFEFDFMFSBUJPOJOHMPCBMNBOVGBDUVSJOHBDUJWJUZXBT particularly pronounced, with industrial production growth moderating to 1.8 percent (q/q saar) in 18Q3, less than half its pace at the start of the year. Survey data suggest weakening momentum in 18Q4, with the global manufacturing PMI dropping in October to its lowest level in almost two years (Figure #  PCB ( M JO M ìB UJPOD POUJOVFEUPUSFOEVQ H SBEVBMM Z XJUI QSJDF QSFTTVSFT JOUFOTJë FE JOT PNF & . %& TG BDJOH B MSHF DVSSFO DZ depreciations, prompting their central banks to tighten monetary policy. However, the recent decline in oil prices may interrupt that FIGURE 1.B Global industrial production and upward trend, at least in the near term. manufacturing PMI Global trade: softening momentum. Following a marked deceleration in 18Q2, global goods trade temporarily recovered in 18Q3. However, incoming data point to renewed weakness into 18Q4, with stagnant container shipping, declining air freight, and decelerating goods trade volumes in September, and a drop in global export orders in October to their lowest level in two and a half years (Figure 1C). Trade tensions between the United States and China D POUJOVFEUPXFJHIPODPOë EFO DFBOEëO B ODJBMNB  SLFU sentiment. However, trade policy uncertainty diminished somewhat after the announcement of the new United States- Mexico-Canada Agreement in October, and the negotiation of a draft withdrawal treaty between the United Kingdom and the FIGURE 1.C Global container shipping and new export orders European Union JO/PWFNCFSɨFMBUUFSTUJMMSFRVJSFTBQQSPWBMCZ the UK House of Commons, the European Council, and European Parliament. ( MPCBM ëO BO D JOHDPO EJUJPOTFRVJU ZNBSLFU SPVU Borrowing costs in advanced economies have been creeping up this year, as JOìB UJPO NPW FTDMPT FSUPDFOUSB MCBO LUBSH T FUB OENPO FUBSZQ JD PM Z accommodation continues to be withdrawn. U.S. long-term yields remained slightly above 3 percent in November. Long-term yields in other advanced economies are markedly lower, with rising JOUFSFTU SBUF EJêFSFOUJBM XJUI UIF United States contributing to a TJHOJë DBO UB Q QSFD JBUJPO  PG U I F 6 4 EPMB M S T JO DF " Q   SJM  Persistently low bond yields in the Euro Area and Japan SFì FD U Sources: Haver Analytics, Institute of Shipping Economics and Logistics, World Bank. continued negative interest rate policies as well as disappointing A. Aggregate growth rates calculated using constant 2010 U.S. dollar GDP weights. growth outcomes. Italian bond yields have been high and volatile B. Figure shows Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) for manufacturing. PMI Readings above 50 indicate expansion in economic activity; readings below 50 in recent months as European authorities and the Italian indicate contraction. Last observation is October 2018 for manufacturing PMI and September 2018 for industrial production. government sparred over its 2019 budget. Global equity prices C. Container shipping based on international merchandise trade of 99 ports, which account for roughly 60 percent of worldwide container handling. Last have experienced marked declines in October and November, observation is October 2018 for new export orders and is September 2018 for container shipping. 2 November 2018 NB JOZ MSFì FDJO U H D PODFSO T BCPVU TPGUFOJO HHSPXUI Q SPT Q FDUT  JO SJT H CPSSPXJOH DPTUT  BOE IFJHIUFOFE USBEF UFOTJPOT 'JHVSF "  ɨF FIGURE 2.A Global and EMDE equity markets DPSSFDJPO U BMTPSFì FD UFET SFU U DI FEW BMVBUJPO JO T T PNFB EWB ODFE economies and lower-than-expected earnings, particularly in technology stocks. & . %& ë OBODJOHDPO EJUJPO TSFO FXFEQ SFTTVSF Many EMDEs IB W FCFFO VOEFSë OBODJBMQ SFTTVSFJOSFDFO UNPO UIT G VFMFECZ B combination of U.S. dollar strength, higher borrowing costs, and concerns about softening growth prospects. International bond issuances were subdued in October and November, down about 35 percent from a year ago, while international syndicated bank loans and equity issuances also reached a two-and-a-half year low (Figure 2B). EMDE bond spreads widened by 64 basis points since the start of October, and 119 basis points since the start of FIGURE 2.B EMDE gross capital inflows the year. EMDE equity prices also fell, particularly in countries XJU I  FYU FSOBMW VMOFSBCJMJUJFT F SFD  8 I JM FOU ëO BOD JBM NB SLFU developments suggest some stabilization in the demand for EMDE BT TFU T DVNVM BUFEPVUì PXT GSPN CPO EBO EFRVJU ZGVOET TJODF"Q  SJM still largely surpass those following the Taper Tantrum in 2013 (Figure 2C). Commodity markets: sharp decline in oil prices. Crude oil prices fell sharply in November, after the United States announced that it would provide temporary waivers to its sanctions on Iranian oil exports to eight countries, including China and India. In addition, production increases in Saudi Arabia, Russia, and the United 4UBUFT IBWF NPSF UIBO PêTFU EFDMJOFT JO *SBO BOE 7FOF[VFMB (Figure 3A). Expectations for global oil demand in 2019 have also FIGURE 2.C Cumulated outflows from EMDE been revised down slightly on fears of slowing global growth. After flows a modest increase in October, the price of most base metals declined in November, led by nickel, which fell 8 percent. Most agricultural prices also weakened in November, following upward revisions to the current season’s supply outlook for key crops. United States: robust growth, rising wages. Growth remained robust in 18Q3 at 3.5 percent (q/q saar), supported by strong consumption and government expenditures (Figure 3B). However, Q B SJWUFë YFEJOWFTU NFO UDPOUSBDU FEGPSUI Fë ST UUJNFTJODF BT the contribution from capital spending in the oil and gas sector turned negative. Exports also contracted, following a one-Pê increase in 18Q2 from farmers shipping their soybean crop prior Sources: Bloomberg, Dealogic, Institute of International Finance, World Bank. UP$IJOBTJNQPTJUJPOPGOFXUBSJêTJO+VMZɨFFDPOPNZ BEEFE A. Figure shows MSCI Global and Emerging Markets Indexes. Last observation is November 29, 2018. 250,000 jobs in October, with most of the gains coming from new B. Last observation is November 2018, which is estimated. C. Cumulative flows to major EMDEs, excluding China. The start dates for the FOUSBOUT UP UIF MBCPS NBSLFU ɨF VOFNQMPZNFOU SBUF XBT stress episodes are: Taper Tantrum: May 23, 2013; Latest episode: April 15, 2018. Last observation is November 28, 2018. unchanged at 3.7 percent, but growth in average hourly earnings 3 November 2018 accelerated to 3.2 percent (y/y), its strongest pace since 2009. FIGURE 3.A Change in oil supply in major Incoming data suggest slower growth in 18Q4, as consumer oil-producing countries spending moderates. Euro Area: weakening momentum. GDP grew by a tepid 0.7 percent in 18Q3 (q/q saar), with solid growth in Spain and France PêTFU CZ TUBHOBUJPO JO *UBMZ BOE DPOUSBDUJPO JO (FSNBOZ *ODPNJO H EBUBDPO ë SNUI FXFBLFOJOH NPNFOUVN XJU IFDPO PNJD sentiment continuing to fall and the composite PMI reaching a 47 -month low in November (Figure 3C). Unemployment remained at 8.1 percent in September for the third straight month. Core JOìB JPO U SFNB JO TMPX BUQFSDFOUJO0DPCFS U  CVU UI F&VSPQFBO $FOUSBM#BOLSFBïSNFEJUTJOUFOTJPOUPTUPQBEEJOHUPJUTCBMBODF sheet by end-2018. Japan: volatile activity. GDP declined 1.2 percent (q/q saar) in FIGURE 3.B U.S. growth 2 EVFU FW PT FSFì PPEJO HJO U XFTFSO +BQBO BOEBOFB I RVB SU LF in the north. Activity has been volatile—it grew at a 3-percent pace in 18Q2 after contracting 1.1 percent in 18Q1. However, the unemployment rate fell in September to 2.3 percent, one of the MPXFT SFB U EJO HTTJODFUI FFBSMZT $ PSFJOìB U JPO FYDMVEJOH food and energy) remained at 0.4 percent in October, unchanged GSPN UIF QSFWJPVT NPOUI ɨF NPOFUBSZ QPMJDZ TUBODF SFNBJOT highly accommodative. China: calibrated policy interventions. Growth moderated to 6.5 percent (y/y) in 18Q3, and recent indicators continue to point to TPNF TPGUFOJOH JO BDUJWJUZ BU UIF TUBSU PG 2 #PUI UIF PïDJBM and Caixin composite PMIs declined in October, and growth in FIGURE 3.C Euro Area manufacturing PMI and SFUB T JM BMFT B OECSPB ED SFEJU I BTBMTPT MPXFE ) PXFW FS ë YFEB TTFU economic sentiment investment growth accelerated in October, supported by higher infrastructure spending. China’s stock markets have been volatile JO/ PW FNCFS GPMMPXJO HB T JHOJë D BO UEFD JO M FJO 0 D PCFSU U IBU SFì FDUFED PODFSOTPW FSTMPXJO HHSPXU I BO EUSBEFU FO TJPO T ' JHVSF 4A). So far, policy easing has been measured and carefully DBMJCSB FE U BNJEëO B ODJBMTUBCJM JUZDPO DFSO T Other commodity-importing EMDEs: mixed. Growth appears to have moderated in a number of commodity importers, particularly BNPO H UI PTFGBDJO HNPSFJO UFOTFD VSSFO DZBO Eë OBO DJBMNBSLFU pressures (Figure 4B). In Turkey, the manufacturing PMI SFNB JO FEë SNM ZDPO USBDUJPOBSZBU JO 0 DUPCFS BO EDPOTVNFS Sources: European Commission, Haver Analytics, International Energy Agency, BOEC VTJO T FTDPO ë EFO DFTJQ M QFEUPUI FJSMPXFT UM FM FW TTJODF+BOVBSZ World Bank. A. Change in oil production of five major oil-producing countries from January 2009, before recovering somewhat in November. Private-sector 2018 to October 2018. Blue bars indicate total oil production in January and October. Red bars indicate a decline in a country's production over the period, credit continued to contract in November and the share of past- and green bars indicate an increase in production. C. ESI = Economic Sentiment Indicator. PMI Readings above 50 indicate due loans rose, suggesting growing fragilities in the banking sector. expansion in economic activity; readings below 50 indicate contraction. Last observation is November 2018. *OìB UJPO SPT FUP Q FSDFOU Z Z JO 0 D PCFS U XFM M B CPWFUIF 4 November 2018 DFO USBMCB O LTU BSHFUPGQ FSDFO U SFì FD UJO H UI FJNQ BD PG U TIB SQ depreciation earlier in the year. In DzBJMBOE, growth slowed to 3.3 FIGURE 4.A China’s stock-market index Q FSDFO U Z Z JO 2 SFì FD UJOH B O FHB UJWFD PO USJCVU JPO GSPNO FU exports, and the manufacturing PMI deteriorated in October. In India, industrial production growth edged down to 4.5 percent (y/ y) in September, from 4.7 percent in the previous month, although the manufacturing PMI rose to 53.1 in October. In Mexico, growth picked up to 3.4 percent (q/q saar) in 18Q3, SFì FDUJO HJNQ SPW FNFO UT BD SPTTUI FQ SJNB SZ JO EVT USJBM BOE TFSWJDFT sectors. However, the manufacturing PMI fell in October and PW FSBMMCVT JO FTTDPO ë EFODFEFD MJOFEU PB -month low, driven by SJTJOHQ PM JD ZVO DFSUBJOUZ) FB EM JOFJO ìB UJPO I BTCFFO SJTJOH JO T DF mid-year, prompting the central bank to increase the policy interest rate in November. In Poland, GDP grew by a robust 7.0 Q FSDFO U RR TBBS JO2  XI JMFJO ìB UJPO FB TFE P U  QFSDFO U Z FIGURE 4.B Manufacturing PMI in commodity- importing EMDEs, by currency depreciation size y) in October. However, a continued decline in the manufacturing PMI in October suggest that growth may slow in 18Q4. Commodity-exporting EMDEs: stalling recovery. While activity was mixed across commodity-exporting EMDEs in 18Q3, key economies experiencing a notable slowdown in manufacturing. In Brazil, industrial production growth contracted for a third straight month in September, falling by 1.8 percent (m/m sa), while retail TBMFTTI SBO LQFSD FOUBO EI B W FEFD MJOFEGPSUI SFFPGUI FMBTë W U F NPO UIT I PXFW FS DPO TVNFSD PO ë EFO DFQ JDLFEVQ JO/ PW FNCFS In Russia, 18Q3 growth softened to 1.3 percent (y/y), down from 1.9 percent in 18Q2. In South Africa, mining production continued to fall in September while the manufacturing PMI declined to a nine-year low of 42.4 in October. In Indonesia, GDP FIGURE 4.C Monetary policy interest rates in growth moderated to 5.2 percent (y/y) in 18Q3, with net exports selected commodity-exporting EMDEs DPOUSJCVUJOH OFHBUJWFMZ ɨF DFOUSBM CBOL JODSFBTFE UIF QPMJDZ JOUFSFT USBUFG I Fë G PSU I U U JNFU I JTZ FBSJO/ PW FNCFS U PQ FSDFOU UPXB SEPê ë O BO DJBMNB SLFUQ SFT TVSFT *OMalaysia, growth slowed UP Q FSDFO U  ZZ JO2  SFì FD UJOH BO FHBUJWFD PO USJCVUJPO GSPN OFU FYQPSUT  PêTFUUJOH B QJDLVQ JO EPNFTUJD EFNBOE Industrial production contracted for the second consecutive month in September, while the manufacturing PMI dropped sharply to 49.2 in October. In Nigeria and Saudi Arabia, survey data point to stable manufacturing activity. Earlier currency pressures have forced many central banks to hike policy interest rates since June, including Argentina, Indonesia, Russia, and most recently, South Africa (Figure 4C). Sources: Bloomberg, Haver Analytics, World Bank. A. Figure shows MSCI China Index. Last observation is November 26, 2018. B. Figure shows Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) for manufacturing. PMI Readings above 50 indicate expansion in economic activity; readings below 50 indicate contraction. Sample includes India, Mexico, Poland, Philippines, Thailand, Turkey, and Vietnam. Last observation is October 2018. C. Last observation is November 2018. 5 November 2018 Special Focus: The Implications of Tariffs FIGURE 5.A Steel prices in the United States and for Commodity Markets the United Kingdom $PNNPEJUZNBSLFUTIBWFCFFOBêFDUFECZTFWFSBMNBDSPFDPOPN ic developments this year, including softening growth prospects in EMDEs, an appreciation of the U.S. dollar, renegotiations of trade agreements, increased sanctions, and growing trade tensions between major countries. A key development was the imposition PG JNQPSU UBSJêTCZ UIF 6OJUFE 4UBUFT BOESFUBMJBUPSZ BDUJPOT CZ BêFDUFE DPVOUSJFT PO B XJEF SBOHF PG QSPEVDUT  JODMVEJOH DPN NPEJUJFT 'PS FYBNQMF  UIF 6OJUFE 4UBUFT IBT JNQPTFE UBSJêT PO TUFFMBOEBMVNJOVNJNQPSUT XIJMF$IJOBIBTJNQPTFEUBSJêTPO JNQPSUTPG64TPZCFBOTBOEPUIFSGPPEQSPEVDUTɨFJNQBDUPG UBSJêTPODPNNPEJUZNBSLFUTIBTEFQFOEFEPOXIFUIFSUIFZBSF FIGURE 5.B Aluminum price differential between commodity-T Q FDJë DPSCSPBE-CBTFEUBSJêT the United States and the United Kingdom ɧF JNQBDU PG DPNNPEJUZ -T Q FDJë D BSJê T U ɨFSFBSFBWBSJFUZPG ways in which commodity-T Q FDJë DUBSJê T B ê FDD U PNNPEJU ZNB S LFUTɨFZDBOJODSFBTFEPNFTUJDQSJDFTPGUIFBêFDUFEDPNNPEJUZ relative to global prices, which can depress trade of the commodi- UZBOEMFBEUPUSBEFEJWFSTJPOɨFZDBOBMTPSFTVMUJODIBOHFTJO UIFQSPEVDUJPOPGUIFBêFDUFEDPNNPEJUZ BTXFMMBTPGTVCTUJUVUF DPNNPEJUJFTɨFTFFêFDUTDBOWBSZEFQFOEJOHPOXIFUIFSUBSJêT are applied to imports from one country (e.g., Chinese imports of soybeans from the United States) or to many countries (e.g., U.S. JNQPSUTPGTUFFMBOEBMVNJOVN ɨFZBMTPEFQFOEPOUIFSFMBUJWF JNQPSUBODFPGUIFBêFDUFEDPVOUSJFTJOUIFHMPCBMTVQQMZBOEEF mand of the commodity, and on the relative price and income FIGURE 5.C Global soybean supply and demand FMBTUJDJUJFTPGEFNBOEPGUIFBêFDUFEDPNNPEJUZ *NQBDUPG64UBSJêTPOJNQPSUTPGBMVNJOVNBOETUFFM 5BSJêT applied to imports of a commodity from all countries can have global and long-MBTUJOH FêFDUT  XJUI MJUUMF TDPQF GPS USBEF EJWFS TJPO"GUFSUIF6OJUFE4UBUFTBOOPVODFEUBSJêTPOJNQPSUTPGTUFFM and aluminum in March, the prices of these metals in the United 4UBUFTSFMBUJW PPU FU I FSDPVOUSJFTJODSFB TFET IBSQ MZ SFì FDUJO H I F U higher cost of foreign supply to U.S. buyers. U.S. steel prices are currently around 25 percent higher than steel prices in the United ,JOHEPNSFMBUJWFUPFBSMZ BOEUIFQSJDFEJêFSFOUJBMPG64 aluminum relative to the London Metal Exchange benchmark is Sources: Bloomberg, U.S. Department of Agriculture, World Bank. A. Prices shown are the benchmark U.K. London Metals Exchange price, and the up 11 percentage points (Figures 5.A and B). While this may U.S. domestic price. Last observation is November 26, 2018. B. U.S.-LME price differential shows the difference between the price for aluminum help encourage domestic production, the additional cost to con- quoted on the London Metal Exchange relative to the price quoted on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Last observation is November 26, 2018. sumers could lead to an overall welfare loss for the United States. C. Production, consumption, and exports of soybean oilseed. October 11, 2018 update. Data show averages of 2015-18. 6 November 2018 *NQBDUPG$IJOBUBSJêTPOJNQPSUTPG64TPZCFBOT In contrast FIGURE 6.A U.S. agricultural prices UPUIFJNQBDUPGBUBSJêPOBTJOHMFDPNNPEJUZGSPNNBOZDPVO USJFT  $IJOBT JNQPTJUJPO PG UBSJêT PG  QFSDFOU PO JNQPSUT PG U.S. soybeans has contributed to substantial changes in both pric- FTB OEU SBEFì PXT$ I JOB U JT B I FMSH FTUDPO TVNFSPG T PZCFBOTJO  the world, the majority of which are imported (Figure 5.C). His- torically, these have been imported mostly from Brazil and the United States (each providing just over 40 percent). Since the BOOPVODFNFOUPGUBSJêT 64TPZCFBOQSJDFTIBWFGBMMFOTVCTUBO tially, as China has sought other suppliers (Figure 6.A). As a re- sult, prices of soybeans in Brazil have risen. In turn, countries that typically purchase soybeans from Brazil, such as the European Union, have increased their imports from the United States, with EU imports of U.S. soybeans increasing by more than 280 per- FIGURE 6.B Change in commodity prices, 2018 cent in July 2018 relative to the previous year. ɧF JNQBDU PG CSPBE -CBTFE UBSJêT Growing trade tensions be- tween major economies can raise concerns about global growth, trade, and investment prospects, and hence worsen the outlook GPSEFNBOEGPSBSBOHFPGDPNNPEJUJFT5BSJêTNBZEFQSFTTCJMBU eral trade, disrupt global supply chains, and increase demand for TVCTUJUVUFT GSPN PUIFS DPVOUSJFT ɨFTF DIBOOFMT PG USBOTNJTTJPO were visible following the announcement of wide-SBOHJOH UBSJêT on $34 billion of China’s exports to the United States in June 2018, which coincided with the beginning of a broad-based de- cline in many industrial commodity prices. Metals prices have fallen 19 percent since June and agricultural prices by 10 percent FIGURE 6.C Metals price indexes, nominal (Figure 6.B). Industrial metals are particularly responsive to con- cerns about trade tensions given their many uses in the manufac- ture of tradable goods, with several metals experiencing a fall in prices of more than 20 percent (Figure 6.C). %PXOTJEF SJTL CSPBEFOJOH PG UBSJêT " DPOUJOVFE SJTFJO UBSJêT across a wide range of imports could have substantial consequenc- es for a broader range of commodity prices. Any setbacks to activi- ty in the United States or China would result in negative spillo- WFST PSU G I F U SFTPG U EU I FXPSM I SPVHI USBEF DPOë EFOD F ë OBO DJBM and commodity-market channels. A faster-than-expected slow- down in China would be particularly important for metals prices, as China accounts for around half of global consumption of met- Sources: Bloomberg, U.S. Department of Agriculture, World Bank. A. Last observation is November 26, 2018. als. Even the threat of substantial shifts in trade policies could B. Cumulative change for periods January 1 to June 14 and June 15 to November 27. June 15 indicates the date on which the United States announced tariffs on $34 billion of Chinese goods. have negative repercussions for many commodity markets. C. Indexes are based on nominal U.S. dollars. Last observation is November 26, 2018. 7 November 2018 Recent Prospects Group Publications Global Economic Prospects - January 2019 (forthcoming) Inflation in Emerging and Developing Economies: Evolution, Drivers and Policies Commodity Markets Outlook - October 2018: The Changing of the Guard: Shifts in Commodity Demand Global Economic Prospects - June 2018: The Turning of the Tide? Global Economic Prospects - January 2018: Broad-Based Upturn, but for How Long? Recent World Bank Working Papers Human Capital and Macro-Economic Development: A Review of the Evidence GVC Participation and Deep Integration in Brazil Poverty, Inequality, and Agriculture in the EU On the Allocation of Resources in Developing East Asia and Pacific Are Banks Engines of Export ? Financial Structures and Export Dynamics The Cost and Benefits of Tax Treaties with Investment Hubs: Findings from Sub-Saharan Africa Concentration in the Banking Sector and Financial Stability: New Evidence Recent World Bank Reports Doing Business 2019: Training for Reform World Development Report 2019: The Changing Nature of Work Atlas of Sustainable Development Goals 2018 Fair Progress? : Economic Mobility Across Generations Around the World The Changing Wealth of Nations 2018: Building a Sustainable Future TABLE A: Major Data Releases (Percent change, y/y) (Percent change y/y) Recent releases: October 29, 2018 - November 28, 2018 Upcoming releases: November 29, 2018 - December 28, 2018 Country Date Indicator Period Actual Forecast Previous Country Date Indicator Period Previous Belgium 10/29/18 GDP Q3 1.7 % 1.4 % France 11/29/18 GDP Q3 2.3 % Italy 10/30/18 GDP Q3 0.8 % 1% 1.2 % Germany 11/29/18 CPI NOV 2.5 % Mexico 10/30/18 GDP Q3 2.6 % 2.6 % Italy 11/30/18 GDP Q3 1.2 % Australia 10/30/18 CPI Q3 1.9 % 2.1 % Brazil 11/30/18 GDP Q3 1.0 % Indonesia 11/4/18 GDP Q3 5.2% 5.2% Indonesia 12/3/18 CPI NOV 3.2 % Turkey 11/5/18 CPI OCT 25.2 % 24.5 % South Korea 12/3/18 CPI NOV 2.0 % Germany 11/7/18 IP SEP 0.8 % 0.2 % Turkey 12/3/18 CPI NOV 25.2 % Brazil 11/7/18 CPI OCT 4.6 % 4.5 % South Africa 12/4/18 GDP Q3 0.4 % Mexico 11/8/18 CPI OCT 4.9 % 4.8 % Australia 12/4/18 GDP Q3 3.4 % Japan 11/13/18 GDP Q3 -1.2 % 3.0 % Euro Area 12/7/18 GDP Q4 1.7 % Germany 11/14/18 GDP Q3 1.1 % 1.4 % 2.0 % France 12/7/18 IP OCT -1.1 % Netherlands 11/14/18 GDP Q3 2.4 % 3.1 % Mexico 12/7/18 CPI NOV 4.9 % Portugal 11/14/18 GDP Q3 2.1 % 2.3 % China 12/7/18 CPI NOV 2.5 % United Kingdom 11/14/18 CPI OCT 2.4 % 2.4 % 2.4 % Turkey 12/10/18 GDP Q3 5.5 % Euro Area 11/14/18 GDP Q3 1.7 % 2.2 % India 12/12/18 IP OCT 4.5 % Euro Area 11/16/18 CPI OCT 2.2 % 2.2 % 2.1 % United States 12/12/18 CPI NOV 2.5 % Thailand 11/19/18 GDP Q3 3.3 % 4.6 % Euro Area 12/17/18 CPI NOV 2.2 % South Africa 11/21/18 CPI OCT 5.1 % 4.9 % Canada 12/19/18 CPI NOV 2.4 % Germany 11/23/18 GDP Q3 1.1 % 2.0 % United Kingdom 12/21/18 GDP Q3 1.2 % Mexico 11/23/18 GDP Q3 2.5 % 2.6 % United States 12/21/18 GDP Q3 2.9 % United States 11/28/18 GDP Q3 3.0 % 2.9 % Spain 12/28/18 GDP Q3 2.5 % 8 November 2018 TABLE B: Activity and Inflation (Percent change y/y, except quarterly data on industrial production, which are percent change q/q, annualized) 2017 2018 2017 2018 2016 2017 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Industrial production, sa 1 World 2.1 4.0 5.5 3.7 2.7 1.8 4.1 4.4 4.6 4.6 4.7 4.2 4.4 3.9 3.5 3.7 3.4 3.2 Advanced economies 0.0 2.8 5.3 -0.3 3.1 0.7 3.1 3.5 3.6 2.7 3.0 3.2 2.5 2.7 2.5 2.1 2.4 2.0 Emerging market and developing economies 4.2 5.3 5.7 7.8 2.5 2.9 5.1 5.4 5.5 6.6 6.4 5.3 6.3 5.1 4.6 5.3 4.5 4.4 Commodity-exporting EMDEs 0.5 2.6 1.2 5.2 -2.6 4.9 3.0 2.5 2.2 3.8 3.2 3.2 4.9 0.8 0.2 2.6 2.1 1.6 Other EMDEs 5.3 6.0 7.0 8.5 3.7 2.5 5.7 6.2 6.5 7.3 7.3 5.9 6.6 6.2 5.8 6.0 5.1 5.1 East Asia and Pacific 5.9 6.1 5.5 9.9 3.8 3.0 5.8 5.7 5.8 7.2 7.0 5.7 7.0 6.4 4.8 5.7 5.6 5.2 East Asia excl. China 4.6 3.7 0.1 14.3 -8.2 5.6 2.7 3.0 2.9 7.5 6.0 3.7 7.3 3.7 -2.4 3.7 2.4 1.8 Europe and Central Asia 3.4 5.9 6.0 6.8 1.6 2.4 6.0 5.7 6.4 7.8 7.5 5.9 5.8 5.3 4.3 5.7 3.7 3.1 Latin America and Caribbean -2.2 0.8 2.8 2.8 -1.5 3.3 1.7 1.6 2.1 1.5 1.8 2.9 4.4 -1.3 2.9 2.2 1.9 1.4 Middle East and North Africa -1.1 5.9 2.9 -8.8 3.9 8.5 6.1 7.2 8.7 2.1 2.7 4.5 2.0 1.4 5.1 3.5 -4.2 5.1 South Asia 5.3 4.7 12.1 4.8 -2.1 2.1 3.7 8.9 7.6 8.1 7.3 5.5 5.6 4.5 6.3 5.7 2.1 4.6 Sub-Saharan Africa 1.2 0.1 7.0 -7.4 -0.2 7.5 2.1 2.0 3.0 1.4 0.7 0.9 -1.5 1.3 1.6 2.0 1.1 1.6 Inflation, sa 2 World 1.4 2.2 2.3 2.2 2.3 2.5 2.3 2.4 2.3 2.2 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.1 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4 Advanced economies 0.3 1.4 1.4 1.3 1.8 2.1 1.4 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.4 1.3 1.5 1.8 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.2 Emerging market and developing economies 2.6 3.1 2.8 2.9 2.7 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 2.9 2.9 2.7 2.6 2.8 2.8 3.0 3.0 3.1 Commodity-exporting EMDEs 3.4 3.3 2.8 2.9 2.7 2.9 3.2 3.0 3.1 2.9 2.9 2.7 2.5 2.7 2.5 2.5 2.6 2.9 Other EMDEs 1.3 2.9 2.8 2.9 2.9 3.4 2.8 2.9 3.0 2.9 3.1 2.8 2.8 2.8 3.0 3.4 3.4 3.6 East Asia and Pacific 2.0 2.3 2.5 2.5 3.2 3.6 2.7 2.6 2.5 2.6 2.7 2.5 2.6 3.0 3.0 3.2 3.2 3.0 Europe and Central Asia 0.4 2.4 2.8 2.7 2.2 2.8 2.6 2.8 2.8 2.5 2.7 2.5 2.3 2.1 2.3 2.4 3.0 2.4 Latin America and Caribbean 2.4 2.6 2.5 2.6 2.4 3.2 2.3 2.5 2.6 2.6 2.5 2.7 2.7 2.1 2.5 2.6 3.1 3.3 Middle East and North Africa 2.1 1.6 2.2 2.8 2.7 2.2 2.1 1.7 1.9 2.9 2.9 2.6 2.6 2.8 2.8 2.7 2.3 2.1 South Asia 4.4 3.8 3.7 4.2 4.4 4.7 3.6 3.8 4.3 4.4 4.1 3.7 4.1 4.1 4.5 4.5 4.6 5.2 Sub-Saharan Africa 5.2 5.5 4.5 3.8 3.4 3.1 5.1 4.5 4.7 4.4 3.7 3.7 3.5 3.3 3.3 3.1 2.9 3.3 Sources: Haver Analytics, IMF Inter national Financ ial Statistics, World Bank. 1 Industrial production is total production ( may exclude construction). When data are unavailable, "industrial production, manufacturing" is used as a proxy. 2 Median inflation rate for eac h grouping. TABLE C: Trade and Finance (Percent change y/y, e xcept quarterly trade data, which are percent change q/q, annualized, and international reserves data, which are percent change over the previous period) 2017 2018 2017 2018 2016 2017 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Exports, nominal, US$, sa World -2.9 10.4 14.3 14.3 24.5 -3.5 12.8 13.7 12.0 17.4 17.4 9.8 16.7 10.8 10.1 12.0 6.9 4.3 Advanced economies -0.9 9.7 11.4 11.4 22.9 -4.8 12.4 13.7 12.0 18.3 13.0 11.9 17.2 9.5 9.4 10.4 5.1 1.1 Emerging market and developing economies -6.2 11.7 19.8 19.8 27.4 -0.7 13.4 13.6 11.9 15.9 25.6 6.2 16.0 13.2 11.4 15.1 10.3 10.5 Commodity-exporting EMDEs -8.2 17.5 24.3 24.3 30.8 -0.7 20.7 15.5 13.6 20.4 15.3 12.9 23.8 15.5 16.5 23.4 13.5 8.7 Other EMDEs -4.5 9.5 17.9 17.9 26.1 -1.0 10.6 12.8 11.3 14.0 30.0 3.6 12.8 12.2 9.3 11.9 9.0 11.2 East Asia and Pacific -6.1 9.9 15.3 15.3 27.9 0.1 10.3 12.9 10.8 13.9 33.0 0.9 12.1 11.8 10.3 12.4 9.0 11.3 Europe and Central Asia -6.1 16.5 29.5 29.5 38.2 -0.9 22.3 19.5 16.2 26.4 20.8 14.9 27.5 19.9 14.0 23.6 13.4 11.3 Latin America and Caribbean -2.5 11.9 14.8 14.8 21.0 -6.1 15.8 9.3 8.7 12.0 11.7 10.4 13.8 7.0 6.4 12.6 9.6 5.8 Middle East and North Africa - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - South Asia 0.6 5.6 24.9 24.9 6.0 6.2 4.0 12.2 11.6 7.3 10.1 5.4 8.9 20.1 4.8 14.3 13.1 14.6 Sub-Saharan Africa -8.4 14.8 21.9 21.9 27.0 -7.2 15.6 14.4 9.8 12.2 16.3 10.9 18.2 14.2 17.1 - - - Imports, nominal, US$, sa World -5.3 12.2 31.8 31.8 16.5 5.2 18.3 13.2 19.5 16.3 21.3 9.1 25.2 4.4 10.1 12.6 2.2 24.7 Advanced economies -3.4 9.1 17.8 17.8 22.7 -3.3 14.7 14.1 13.9 18.7 15.3 12.1 18.6 10.0 9.2 11.9 6.8 3.7 Emerging market and developing economies -6.4 13.9 40.0 40.0 13.3 9.9 20.2 12.8 22.6 15.0 24.6 7.4 28.8 1.7 10.6 12.9 -0.3 37.4 Commodity-exporting EMDEs -7.3 13.2 48.2 48.2 4.0 16.8 21.2 11.3 25.8 10.0 29.1 6.0 32.3 -2.1 10.2 11.5 -4.0 47.9 Other EMDEs -3.0 16.4 15.5 15.5 50.0 -9.6 17.0 18.1 12.5 32.5 11.2 12.2 17.9 17.0 11.7 18.0 12.3 8.7 East Asia and Pacific -3.7 17.5 12.7 12.7 67.5 -12.6 18.3 18.7 9.6 37.8 9.3 12.0 22.0 20.9 11.7 21.3 16.7 12.0 Europe and Central Asia -1.2 18.7 17.0 17.0 38.4 -20.2 21.5 23.8 23.4 30.3 21.9 17.5 19.1 9.9 7.6 6.2 -1.3 -2.2 Latin America and Caribbean -7.3 8.3 17.0 17.0 24.7 6.0 16.4 9.1 6.8 13.9 14.3 4.2 21.3 12.7 9.6 23.4 13.9 6.4 Middle East and North Africa - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - South Asia -5.4 22.7 33.6 33.6 22.7 10.5 11.2 20.6 19.1 24.4 11.8 7.9 4.3 16.0 20.7 23.6 20.0 8.3 Sub-Saharan Africa -12.6 4.7 29.1 29.1 - - 9.2 4.3 15.2 - - - - - - - - - International reserves, US$1 World -2.0 7.2 1.2 1.2 1.4 -1.2 0.0 0.5 0.7 1.4 -0.5 0.5 -0.5 -0.5 -0.2 0.0 -0.1 -0.5 Advanced economies 3.2 10.0 1.1 1.1 1.3 -0.8 -0.3 0.7 0.8 1.3 -0.5 0.5 -1.0 -0.2 0.4 -0.1 0.1 0.0 Emerging market and developing economies -5.2 5.3 1.3 1.3 1.4 -1.5 0.2 0.4 0.6 1.4 -0.5 0.5 -0.2 -0.7 -0.6 0.0 -0.3 -0.8 Commodity-exporting EMDEs -4.4 3.5 1.2 1.2 2.1 -0.5 0.6 0.4 0.2 1.4 -0.3 1.0 0.7 -0.4 -0.8 -0.2 0.2 - Other EMDEs -5.7 6.1 1.3 1.3 1.1 -2.0 0.1 0.4 0.8 1.5 -0.6 0.3 -0.6 -0.8 -0.6 0.2 -0.5 -0.8 East Asia and Pacific -7.3 5.6 1.3 1.3 0.6 -1.4 0.0 0.4 0.9 1.1 -0.8 0.4 -0.5 -0.5 -0.3 0.1 -0.2 -0.8 Europe and Central Asia 3.4 10.2 0.9 0.9 4.3 -3.3 0.2 1.0 -0.3 3.5 0.2 0.6 -0.5 -1.2 -1.6 0.9 -1.1 -0.8 Latin America and Caribbean 1.4 2.1 -0.9 -0.9 1.8 -2.0 0.5 -0.4 -0.9 1.5 0.0 0.3 -0.3 -0.4 -1.4 0.4 -0.2 -1.1 Middle East and North Africa -10.7 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - South Asia 3.6 11.8 2.3 2.3 2.5 -3.8 -0.1 0.2 2.1 2.4 -0.2 0.3 -0.2 -2.4 -1.2 -0.7 -0.7 -0.8 Sub-Saharan Africa -2.9 10.4 6.3 6.3 8.5 1.0 1.3 3.3 1.5 1.7 0.9 5.7 1.1 2.1 -2.0 -0.2 -3.3 - Sources: Haver Analytics, IMF International Financial Statistics, World Bank. 1Total reserves excluding gold are used as proxies when total reserves data are unavailable. 9 November 2018 TABLE D: Financial Markets (Percent change y/y, except quart erly trade data, which are percent change q/q, annualized, and int ernational reserves data, which are percent change over the previous period) 2017 2018 2017 2018 MRV 1 2016 2017 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Interest rates and LIBOR (percent) U.S. federal funds effective 0.39 0.97 1.17 1.40 1.67 1.88 1.13 1.27 1.38 1.38 1.45 1.63 1.63 1.77 1.88 1.88 1.90 2.13 2.13 ECB repo 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 US$ LIBOR 3-months 0.74 1.26 1.47 1.93 2.34 2.34 1.43 1.61 1.73 1.87 2.18 2.35 2.34 2.33 2.34 2.32 2.35 2.46 2.71 EURIBOR 3-months -0.26 -0.33 -0.33 -0.33 -0.33 -0.32 -0.33 -0.33 -0.33 -0.33 -0.33 -0.33 -0.33 -0.32 -0.32 -0.32 -0.32 -0.32 -0.32 U.S. 10-year Treasury yield 1.84 2.33 2.37 2.76 2.92 2.92 2.35 2.41 2.58 2.86 2.84 2.87 2.97 2.91 2.89 2.89 3.00 3.16 3.06 German Bund, 10 year 0.11 0.37 0.38 0.57 0.42 0.28 0.37 0.36 0.50 0.67 0.54 0.48 0.46 0.33 0.25 0.26 0.35 0.37 0.34 Spreads (basis points) JP Morgan emerging markets 410 325 313 309 351 378 320 312 299 309 319 322 353 377 366 383 386 377 430 Asia 221 164 151 157 185 189 153 151 146 156 168 171 186 197 193 185 189 190 212 Europe 302 243 233 221 275 313 244 229 212 217 234 246 277 301 291 329 318 299 345 Latin America and the Caribbean 537 429 416 418 455 487 422 419 410 420 423 422 459 486 471 493 498 492 557 Middle East 517 385 400 367 429 464 421 398 359 366 374 385 432 472 451 464 478 453 532 Africa 518 376 350 320 385 440 359 332 305 317 337 342 379 436 420 445 455 445 531 Stock indexes (end of period) Global (MSCI) 424 508 508 500 505 524 505 508 502 517 500 510 509 505 520 524 524 484 481 Advanced economies ($ index) 1761 2086 2086 2042 2089 2184 2077 2086 2053 2113 2042 2087 2093 2089 2153 2179 2184 2019 1999 United States (S&P 500) 2258 2668 2668 2590 2718 2923 2648 2668 2631 2711 2590 2648 2729 2718 2816 2902 2923 2712 2679 Europe (S&P Euro 350) 1475 1558 1558 1493 1533 1548 1563 1558 1518 1522 1493 1556 1545 1533 1581 1547 1548 1454 1452 Japan (Nikkei 225) 19302 22530 22530 21203 22305 24021 22730 22530 21650 21794 21203 22488 22095 22305 22554 22788 24021 21920 21952 Emerging market and 861 1139 1139 1167 1070 1048 1121 1139 1158 1202 1167 1164 1121 1070 1087 1055 1048 954 977 developing economies (MSCI) EM Asia 419 577 577 589 552 537 572 577 584 603 589 587 582 552 553 546 537 476 494 EM Europe 295 341 341 350 312 313 330 341 354 370 350 335 316 312 319 294 313 293 292 EM Europe and Middle East 248 275 275 280 253 259 265 275 285 295 280 271 257 253 263 246 259 247 247 EM Latin America & Caribbean 2341 2811 2811 3008 2477 2577 2719 2811 2945 3095 3008 2988 2561 2477 2702 2466 2577 2684 2495 Exchange rates (LCU / USD) Advanced economies Euro Area 0.90 0.89 0.85 0.81 0.84 0.86 0.85 0.84 0.82 0.81 0.81 0.81 0.85 0.86 0.86 0.87 0.86 0.87 0.88 Japan 108.80 112.11 112.75 107.94 109.16 111.52 112.81 112.51 109.83 107.96 106.02 107.62 109.72 110.13 111.45 111.03 112.09 112.76 113.57 Emerging market and developing economies Brazil 3.49 3.19 3.24 3.24 3.61 3.95 3.26 3.28 3.19 3.25 3.28 3.41 3.64 3.79 3.82 3.93 4.10 3.76 3.93 China 6.65 6.76 6.61 6.35 6.38 6.81 6.62 6.59 6.41 6.32 6.32 6.30 6.37 6.47 6.72 6.85 6.86 6.93 6.94 Egypt 10.12 17.85 17.71 17.68 17.80 17.90 17.68 17.81 17.74 17.67 17.63 17.68 17.83 17.88 17.90 17.88 17.92 17.92 17.95 India 67.19 65.11 64.71 64.40 66.99 70.19 64.85 64.20 63.72 64.44 65.06 65.69 67.49 67.79 68.74 69.62 72.22 73.59 70.87 Russia 67.06 58.31 58.47 56.96 62.03 65.64 58.97 58.70 56.93 56.81 57.15 61.01 62.28 62.81 62.83 66.48 67.60 65.86 67.16 South Africa 14.71 13.31 13.62 11.93 12.65 14.09 14.06 13.11 12.15 11.82 11.84 12.10 12.52 13.33 13.39 14.13 14.75 14.54 13.91 Memo: U.S. nominal effective rate 119.7 119.6 117.5 114.1 116.6 120.4 117.7 117.4 114.7 113.7 113.9 113.9 117.0 118.9 119.6 120.6 120.9 121.7 123.7 (index) Sources: Bloomberg, J.P. Morgan, and World Bank. 1 MRV = most recent value. TABLE E: Commodity Prices 2017 2018 2017 2018 MRV 1 2016 2017 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Energy 2 55 68 75 82 90 93 77 78 85 81 81 86 92 91 92 90 96 97 97 Non-energy 2 79 84 84 88 89 83 85 84 87 88 88 90 90 88 84 83 81 82 82 Agriculture 2 87 87 85 88 91 85 85 85 87 88 90 92 92 89 86 85 83 83 83 Metals and minerals 2 64 79 84 88 88 80 84 85 89 89 85 87 88 88 81 79 79 81 78 Memo items: Crude oil, average ($/bbl) 43 53 59 64 71 73 60 61 66 63 64 69 73 72 73 71 75 77 57 Gold ($/toz) 1249 1258 1275 1329 1307 1213 1282 1264 1331 1331 1325 1335 1303 1282 1238 1202 1198 1215 1215 Baltic Dry Index 676 1152 1509 1171 1256 1602 1455 1589 1234 1130 1149 1126 1289 1352 1649 1710 1447 1545 1093 Sources: World Bank, World Bank Commodities Price Data (The Pink Sheet), Bloomberg. 1 MRV = most recent value. 2 Indexes, 2010 = 100. ª*OUFSOBUJPOBM#BOLGPS3FDPOTUSVDUJPOBOE%FWFMPQNFOUɨF8PSME#BOL 1818 H Street NW, Washington, DC 20433 Telephone: 202-473-1000; Internet: www.worldbank.org Some rights reserved ɨ JTXPSLJTBQSPEV DPG U IF U T U Bê PGɨ F8 PSM E#BO LXJUI FSO FYU BMDPO S U JCVU JPOTɨ Fë O  EJOHT  JOUFSQSFU JPO BU T BOEDPO DVT M JPOTFYQS T FTFEJO I JT U XPSLEPOPU O FDFTTBS JMZSFì FDUUIFW JFXT PGɨ F8 PSM E#BO JU L T #PBSEPG&YFDVUJWF%JSFDUPST PSUIFHPWFSONFOUTUIFZSFQSFTFOUɨFNBQTXFSFQSPEVDFECZUIF.BQ%FTJHO6OJUPGɨF8PSME#BOLɨF8PSME#BOLEPFTOPUHVBSBOUFFUIFBDDVSBDZPGUIFEBUBJODMVEFEJOUIJT XPSLɨF CPVOEBSJFT DPMPST  EFOPNJOBUJPOT BOE PUIFSJOGPSNBUJPOTIPXO PO UIFTF NBQT EP OPU JNQMZ PO UIF QBSU PGɨF 8PSME #BOL (SPVQ BOZ KVEHNFOU PO UIF MFHBMTUBUVT PGBOZ UFSSJUPSZ  PSBOZ FOEPSTF NFO UPS  BDDFQ UBOD PG F TVDICPVO EBS JFT I JO / PU HI FSFJOTIBM MDPOTJU U VUFPSC FDPO JEFS T FEUPCFBMJNJU BUJPOVQPOPS FS XBJW PGUIFQSJW FH JM FTBO  EJNNVO JFT JU  PGɨ F  8 PSM E#BO L  BM  MPGXIJD IBSFTQ FDJëD BMMZ FSW SFT FE 10