Global Monthly February 2018 • • • • • Percent 10-year Treasury yields 3 10-year breakeven inflation rate • 2 • 1 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 • • • February 2018 Percent Index Global GDP growth 5 56 Composite PMI (RHS) 4 54 3 52 2 1 50 2016 2012 2013 2014 2015 2017 2018 Percent Percent change, year-on-year 3.0 Brent crude (RHS) 60 Global median inflation 40 2.5 20 2.0 0 -20 1.5 -40 1.0 -60 2014 2015 2016 2017 Percent, 3m-3m saar 2018 Index 12 Global goods trade 58 10 New export orders (RHS) 56 8 6 54 4 52 2 0 50 -2 48 -4 -6 46 Jan-15 Apr-15 Jul-15 Oct-15 Apr-16 Jul-16 Jan-17 Apr-17 Jul-17 Jan-16 Oct-16 Oct-17 Jan-18 2 February 2018 Percent Percent, year-on-year Unemployment rate Hourly wage growth (RHS) 10 5.5 8 4.5 6 3.5 4 2.5 2 0 1.5 2007 2010 2013 2016 2008 2009 2011 2012 2014 2015 2017 Percent of firms 30 Euro Area Germany 25 20 15 10 5 0 -5 1996 2002 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1998 2000 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 Index USD/CNY 102 Trade-weighted exchange rate 6.2 100 USD/CNY (RHS, inverted) 6.4 98 6.6 96 6.8 94 92 7 Jul-17 Jan-17 Jan-18 Apr-17 Oct-17 3 4 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 2 4 6 10 12 14 18 0 8 16 Sep-17 Jan-14 Jan-14 Percent Percent Percent Apr-14 Apr-14 Jul-14 Jul-14 Oct-17 Brazil Oct-14 Oct-14 Jan-15 Jan-15 Turkey Apr-15 Mexico Apr-15 South Africa Nov-17 Jul-15 Jul-15 Oct-15 Oct-15 Jan-16 Jan-16 Dec-17 Russia India Apr-16 Apr-16 Poland Indonesia Jul-16 Jul-16 Oct-16 Oct-16 Jan-18 Jan-17 Jan-17 Apr-17 Apr-17 Jul-17 Jul-17 Feb-18 Nigeria Oct-17 Oct-17 Jan-18 Jan-18 Philippines February 2018 February 2018 US$ billions, 4-week sum 35 Equities Bonds 25 15 5 -5 -15 -25 Dec-17 Jun-16 Dec-16 Mar-17 Jun-17 Sep-17 Sep-16 Basis points Index, 100=Jan. 2, 2017 420 150 Bond spreads 380 Equity index (RHS) 140 340 130 300 120 260 110 Oct-17 Dec-17 Sep-17 Nov-17 Jan-18 Mb/d Feb-18 11 9 7 5 3 1970 1973 1976 1979 1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 2018 5 6 0 2 4 6 8 0 1 2 3 4 20 40 60 80 0 100 1998-2002 Percent Percent Percent 1998-2017 2003-07 2003-07 PF 2008-12 2013-17 World World 2013-17 2013-17 2018-27 1998-2017 Actual growth 1998-2002 Potential growth MVF 2003-07 2003-07 2013-17 Share of GDP AEs 2008-12 AEs 2013-17 Share of countries 1998-2017 2013-17 1998-2017 potential growth 2018-27 UVF 1998-2002 2013-17 2003-07 2003-07 2008-12 1998-2017 EMDEs 2013-17 EMDEs Exp. 2013-17 2013-17 2018-27 February 2018 February 2018 Percent Share of countries 100 Share of GDP 80 60 40 20 0 2013-17 2003-07 2013-17 2018-27 1998-2002 2003-07 2013-17 2018-27 2003-07 2018-27 1998-2002 1998-2002 World AEs EMDEs Percent Share of countries 100 Share of GDP 80 60 40 20 0 2013-17 1998-2002 2003-07 2013-17 2003-07 2003-07 2013-17 1998-2002 1998-2002 World AEs EMDEs Percent Baseline Percent Demographic trends 2.6 Other factors 5.2 2.4 4.8 2.2 4.4 2.0 4.0 1.8 3.6 Contribution Contribution 2013-17 2018-27 2013-17 2018-27 World EMDEs (RHS) 7 February 2018 Global Economic Prospects - January 2018: Broad-Based Upturn, but for How Long? Commodity Markets Outlook - October 2017 Global Economic Prospects - June 2017: A Fragile Recovery Human capital outflows: selection into migration from the Northern Triangle Structural change in west Africa : a tale of gain and loss Effect of climate policies on labor markets in developing countries : review of the evidence and directions for future research Investment in ICT, productivity, and labor demand : the case of Argentina Why are more sovereigns issuing in Euros? Choosing between USD and EUR-denominated bonds Relationship between energy intensity and economic growth : new evidence from a multi-country multi-sector data set The making of behavioral development economics Broadband internet, labor demand, and total factor productivity in Colombia A primer on human capital Structural reforms and firms' productivity : evidence from developing countries Doing Business 2018: Reforming to Create Jobs World Development Report 2018: LEARNING to Realize Education’s Promise Trouble in the Making? The Future of Manufacturing-Led Development (Percent change, y/y) (Percent change y/y) Recent releases: January 18, 2018 - February 23, 2018 Upcoming releases: February 24, 2018 - March 23, 2018 Country Date Indicator Period Actual Forecast Previous Country Date Indicator Period Previous United Kingdom 1/26/18 GDP Q3 1.5 % 2.2 % 1.7 % France 2/28/18 GDP Q4 1.9 % United States 1/26/18 GDP Q4 2.5 % 2.3 % Denmark 2/28/18 GDP Q4 1.5 % Belgium 1/29/18 GDP Q4 1.9 % 2.0 % 1.7 % Sweden 2/28/18 GDP Q4 2.9 % Germany 1/30/18 CPI JAN 1.6 % 1.7 % 1.7 % Slovenia 2/28/18 GDP Q4 4.5 % Spain 1/30/18 GDP Q4 3.1 % 3.1 % 3.1 % United States 2/28/18 GDP Q4 2.3 % Mexico 1/30/18 GDP Q4 1.8% 1.7% 1.5% Belgium 2/28/18 GDP Q4 1.7 % Spain 1/31/18 CPI JAN 0.5 % 1.1 % Lithuania 3/1/18 GDP Q4 3.6 % Indonesia 2/5/18 GDP Q4 5.2% 5.0 % 5.1% Finland 3/1/18 GDP Q4 3.0 % Japan 2/13/18 GDP, annualized Q4 0.5% 2.2 % Spain 3/1/18 GDP Q4 3.1 % Italy 2/14/18 GDP Q4 1.6% 1.6% 1.7 % Brazil 3/1/18 GDP Q4 1.4 % Germany 2/14/18 GDP Q4 2.9% 3.0% 2.8 % Italy 3/2/18 GDP Q4 1.7 % Czech Republic 2/14/18 GDP Q4 5.1% 5.2% 5.0 % Switzerland 3/2/18 GDP Q4 1.2 % Hungary 2/14/18 GDP Q4 4.4% 4.1% 3.9 % South Africa 3/6/18 GDP Q4 0.8 % Netherland 2/14/18 GDP Q4 2.9% 3.3 % 3.2 % Australia 3/6/18 GDP Q4 2.8 % Poland 2/14/18 GDP Q4 5.1% 5.2% 4.9 % Romania 3/7/18 GDP Q4 8.6 % Bulgaria 2/14/18 GDP Q4 3.6% 3.9 % Cyprus 3/9/18 GDP Q4 3.9 % Portugal 2/14/18 GDP Q4 2.4% 2.2 % 2.5 % Iceland 3/9/18 GDP Q4 3.1 % Greece 2/14/18 GDP Q3 1.3% 1.0% 1.5 % New Zealand 3/14/18 GDP Q4 2.7 % Euro Area 2/14/18 GDP Q4 2.7% 2.7% 2.7 % Ireland 3/15/18 GDP Q4 10.5 % Malaysia 2/14/18 GDP Q4 5.9% 5.7% 6.2 % Luxembourg 3/22/18 GDP Q4 3.2 % Thailand 2/19/18 GDP Q4 4.0% 4.4% 4.3 % Netherland 3/26/18 GDP Q4 3.2 % 8 February 2018 (Percent change y/y, except quarterly data on industrial production, which are percent change q/q, annualized) 2017 2017 2015 2016 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 1 Industrial production, sa World 1.8 2.0 3.5 5.1 3.4 5.5 2.9 3.2 3.9 3.7 4.3 4.0 4.2 4.3 4.3 4.3 4.3 4.5 Advanced economies 0.2 0.2 1.6 4.6 2.3 6.0 1.1 2.2 2.4 2.5 3.2 3.0 3.0 3.2 3.0 3.6 3.3 3.9 Emerging market and developing economies 3.5 4.0 5.4 5.7 4.4 5.1 4.9 4.3 5.6 5.0 5.5 5.0 5.4 5.4 5.6 5.1 5.2 5.2 Commodity-exporting EMDEs -1.1 0.0 1.4 5.1 3.4 0.2 1.8 1.0 1.9 2.1 3.9 0.9 2.5 3.2 3.2 3.1 2.2 2.3 Other EMDE 5.1 5.2 6.6 5.8 4.7 6.4 5.8 5.3 6.7 5.8 6.0 6.1 6.3 6.0 6.2 5.6 6.1 6.0 East Asia and Pacific 5.8 5.9 7.1 6.1 4.6 4.9 6.2 6.1 7.4 6.2 6.3 6.5 6.0 5.8 6.5 5.8 5.7 5.6 East Asia excl. China 3.6 4.6 4.6 0.8 7.9 -1.9 4.6 5.1 6.0 4.4 5.1 0.5 3.4 4.7 5.7 3.2 3.5 1.7 Europe and Central Asia 1.5 2.3 2.4 9.6 2.4 5.6 3.6 1.0 3.9 4.4 6.4 4.9 6.6 6.0 6.0 5.4 4.3 5.1 Latin America and Caribbean -2.6 -2.3 0.6 0.2 3.5 2.8 0.4 0.4 -0.1 -0.8 1.1 -0.1 1.0 1.3 0.6 1.7 1.4 2.2 Middle East and North Africa -3.3 -7.0 22.7 22.1 19.1 - 13.1 17.2 4.7 21.1 20.4 23.3 30.7 15.4 19.4 18.8 21.4 - South Asia 3.5 5.3 4.7 1.8 6.6 8.9 4.4 2.1 5.5 4.6 4.1 0.1 3.9 6.5 4.7 2.3 7.9 6.2 Sub-Saharan Africa -0.1 1.0 -4.1 3.4 3.8 7.0 0.3 -2.5 -1.9 -0.4 -1.8 -2.8 -0.7 1.2 -0.8 1.8 2.3 3.3 Inflation, sa 2 World 1.4 1.6 2.6 2.3 2.4 2.4 2.5 2.7 2.7 2.6 2.3 2.0 2.3 2.4 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.2 Advanced economies 0.1 0.3 1.6 1.4 1.5 1.4 1.5 1.8 1.5 1.9 1.4 1.2 1.4 1.5 1.5 1.4 1.5 1.5 Emerging market and developing economies 2.6 2.7 3.4 3.4 3.2 3.4 3.2 3.5 3.7 3.7 3.4 3.0 2.9 3.3 3.4 3.5 3.3 3.3 Commodity-exporting EMDEs 4.0 3.6 3.7 3.9 3.6 3.6 3.8 3.9 4.0 4.1 3.8 3.5 3.4 3.5 3.7 3.6 3.3 3.2 Other EMDE 0.9 1.1 3.0 2.9 2.9 3.2 2.6 3.2 3.4 3.2 2.9 2.3 2.5 2.8 3.3 3.2 3.2 3.3 East Asia and Pacific 1.2 2.0 2.6 2.9 2.4 2.7 2.7 3.5 3.5 3.2 2.9 2.4 2.3 2.6 2.7 3.0 2.6 2.9 Europe and Central Asia 1.9 0.4 2.4 2.4 2.7 2.9 2.3 2.5 2.7 2.6 2.7 2.2 2.5 2.6 2.8 2.6 3.0 2.9 Latin America and Caribbean 2.7 2.4 2.9 2.4 3.2 3.9 2.6 3.0 2.8 2.9 2.9 1.8 2.8 3.2 3.7 3.5 4.1 3.5 Middle East and North Africa 1.8 2.7 2.6 1.5 1.1 2.2 2.3 2.3 2.9 1.7 1.9 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.6 2.1 1.7 2.3 South Asia 4.5 4.4 4.3 4.5 3.6 3.8 3.7 4.1 4.9 4.7 5.0 4.0 3.6 3.7 3.5 3.7 4.0 5.2 Sub-Saharan Africa 4.0 5.7 7.0 6.3 5.5 5.2 6.9 6.8 6.5 6.8 6.4 6.4 5.5 5.5 5.7 5.6 4.6 4.4 (Percent change y/y, except quarterly trade data, which are percent change q/q, annualized, and international reserves data, which are percent change over the previous period) 2017 2017 2015 2016 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Au Sep Oct Nov Dec Exports, nominal, US$, sa World -11.6 -3.0 18.4 3.1 12.8 15.7 10.9 7.5 12.9 3.8 11.1 7.5 10.2 10.9 10.9 12.4 13.0 11.6 Advanced economies -11.4 -0.8 18.1 1.4 17.2 13.0 10.1 8.0 10.7 1.2 10.3 6.4 9.9 10.7 10.8 12.1 13.0 11.6 Emerging market and developing economies -11.9 -6.5 18.9 6.1 5.3 20.8 12.4 6.7 16.9 8.6 12.7 9.5 10.8 11.1 11.1 12.9 13.2 11.6 Commodity-exporting EMDEs -24.2 -9.1 37.2 -10.5 16.5 24.8 26.5 19.1 23.1 13.1 19.5 10.1 17.0 16.6 16.2 20.2 13.9 13.0 Other EMDEs -3.7 -4.6 12.1 13.8 1.1 19.1 7.3 2.0 14.6 6.9 10.1 9.3 8.5 9.0 9.1 10.1 12.8 11.0 East Asia and Pacific -3.5 -6.1 12.7 15.5 -0.2 17.8 8.5 1.9 15.4 8.7 11.1 9.0 10.3 8.0 9.7 10.0 12.8 10.8 Europe and Central Asia -20.7 -6.1 35.8 -3.5 16.5 31.8 22.5 12.4 20.9 5.7 19.5 11.0 11.3 20.0 16.7 22.0 19.1 16.4 Latin America and Caribbean -11.8 -2.3 23.6 -0.9 6.3 13.8 14.4 12.0 17.2 9.6 11.4 12.4 10.3 11.1 10.1 15.1 8.6 7.7 Middle East and North Africa -27.1 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - South Asia -4.0 0.6 14.8 -11.2 11.7 28.9 3.1 -0.3 11.1 6.3 -2.0 -3.4 11.7 9.9 4.9 4.1 14.9 11.2 Sub-Saharan Africa -26.5 -14.6 45.4 -12.7 8.6 - 22.3 25.0 18.2 6.7 12.8 13.5 14.9 17.6 10.5 - - - Imports, nominal, US$, sa World -6.9 -5.2 23.7 15.0 -0.4 31.6 11.4 5.4 10.3 -6.2 25.4 7.2 21.4 16.1 5.9 17.9 13.1 19.8 Advanced economies -12.7 -3.2 21.2 2.5 14.5 19.0 9.5 3.4 9.2 1.9 10.3 5.1 10.7 9.3 9.3 14.1 13.8 14.3 Emerging market and developing economies -3.3 -6.4 25.2 22.7 -8.0 39.5 12.5 6.6 11.0 -10.3 34.6 8.4 27.9 20.4 3.8 20.1 12.7 23.1 Commodity-exporting EMDEs -1.0 -7.2 21.2 31.5 -13.1 - 11.8 2.1 8.8 -15.3 39.7 7.2 31.5 22.4 -0.4 21.2 11.2 - Other EMDEs -11.4 -3.1 39.4 -2.7 11.1 20.6 15.1 23.1 18.8 11.0 17.4 12.6 16.0 14.3 17.5 16.6 17.9 13.9 East Asia and Pacific -13.1 -3.6 50.0 -11.2 12.9 17.4 17.1 34.1 20.6 12.4 17.7 13.4 15.8 13.9 19.1 17.8 18.6 9.7 Europe and Central Asia -20.8 -1.2 39.0 16.8 16.8 18.9 20.5 9.9 13.5 9.1 23.0 13.7 26.7 16.9 19.8 20.9 22.6 24.0 Latin America and Caribbean -9.9 -7.4 25.3 -8.5 10.8 16.1 11.0 4.8 13.1 -1.3 12.1 6.2 7.5 9.3 4.9 15.7 8.8 6.5 Middle East and North Africa 1.4 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - South Asia -13.2 -5.4 32.5 15.5 -10.4 34.9 15.5 21.5 40.5 42.2 31.4 13.7 22.6 20.9 18.5 10.9 18.9 19.9 Sub-Saharan Africa -7.8 -13.8 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - International reserves, US$1 World -5.7 -2.0 1.7 2.1 1.7 1.2 0.6 0.3 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.5 0.8 0.6 0.3 0.0 0.5 0.7 Advanced economies 2.2 3.2 3.4 2.9 1.7 1.1 1.5 0.4 1.5 1.2 1.1 0.5 0.9 0.5 0.3 -0.3 0.7 0.8 Emerging market and developing economies -10.7 -5.2 0.5 1.5 1.7 1.2 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.4 0.7 0.4 0.7 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.4 0.6 Commodity-exporting EMDEs -11.1 -4.5 0.5 0.5 0.8 - 0.0 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.5 - - Other EMDEs -10.3 -5.7 0.5 2.0 2.2 1.1 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.5 0.9 0.6 0.9 0.8 0.5 0.1 0.4 0.7 East Asia and Pacific -12.4 -7.3 0.5 1.7 2.1 1.1 0.0 0.4 0.1 0.8 0.8 0.1 1.0 0.6 0.5 0.0 0.4 0.7 Europe and Central Asia -6.8 3.4 2.9 3.2 3.1 0.9 1.9 0.6 0.3 -0.2 1.3 2.0 1.1 1.6 0.3 0.2 1.0 -0.3 Latin America and Caribbean -5.3 1.4 0.5 1.7 1.0 -1.0 0.6 0.2 -0.3 0.8 0.2 0.8 0.6 0.3 -0.1 0.5 -0.4 -0.7 Middle East and North Africa -17.7 -10.7 -2.0 -1.7 - - -1.6 -0.6 0.2 -1.2 -0.2 -0.3 -1.0 -0.2 - - - - South Asia 10.9 3.6 2.1 4.5 2.5 2.3 0.5 0.5 1.0 0.7 2.0 1.7 1.1 1.3 0.1 -0.1 0.2 2.2 Sub-Saharan Africa -12.7 -4.7 3.2 0.7 0.4 - 1.3 2.4 -0.5 3.5 -1.2 -1.6 2.4 -1.7 0.0 0.5 - - 9 February 2018 (Percent change y/y, except quarterly trade data, which are percent change q/q, annualized, and international reserves data, which are percent change over the previous period ) 2017 2017 2018 MRV 1 2015 2016 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Interest rates and LIBOR (percent) U.S. federal funds effective 0.13 0.39 0.67 0.92 1.13 1.17 0.63 0.76 0.88 0.88 1.01 1.13 1.13 1.13 1.13 1.13 1.27 1.38 1.38 ECB repo 0.05 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 US$ LIBOR 3-months 0.32 0.74 1.07 1.20 1.32 1.47 1.04 1.13 1.16 1.19 1.26 1.31 1.31 1.32 1.36 1.43 1.61 1.73 1.90 EURIBOR 3-months -0.02 -0.26 -0.33 -0.33 -0.33 -0.33 -0.33 -0.33 -0.33 -0.33 -0.33 -0.33 -0.33 -0.33 -0.33 -0.33 -0.33 -0.33 -0.33 U.S. 10-year Treasury yield 2.14 1.84 2.44 2.26 2.24 2.37 2.42 2.48 2.30 2.30 2.19 2.32 2.21 2.20 2.36 2.35 2.41 2.58 2.88 German Bund, 10 year 0.54 0.11 0.35 0.31 0.46 0.38 0.33 0.40 0.26 0.37 0.29 0.54 0.42 0.41 0.43 0.37 0.36 0.50 0.66 Spreads (basis points) JP Morgan emerging markets 415 410 340 325 322 313 338 329 331 320 325 327 325 314 306 320 312 299 307 Asia 224 221 175 169 161 151 173 166 173 167 166 163 163 157 148 153 151 146 153 Europe 348 302 261 242 234 233 258 253 250 237 240 243 234 224 226 244 229 212 212 Latin America and the Caribbean 540 537 445 427 428 416 442 431 431 420 430 435 435 416 407 422 419 410 419 Middle East 456 517 396 362 383 400 396 377 350 353 382 382 382 384 381 421 398 359 372 Africa 415 518 389 386 380 350 387 380 400 376 383 394 378 367 360 359 332 305 317 Stock indexes (end of period) Global (MSCI) 399 424 449 465 487 508 445 449 455 464 465 478 478 487 497 505 508 502 519 Advanced economies ($ index) 1663 1761 1854 1916 2001 2086 1839 1854 1878 1912 1916 1961 1960 2001 2037 2077 2086 2053 2118 United States (S&P 500) 2044 2258 2363 2423 2519 2668 2364 2363 2384 2421 2423 2470 2472 2519 2575 2648 2668 2631 2701 Europe (S&P Euro 350) 1474 1475 1547 1534 1571 1558 1501 1547 1564 1576 1534 1526 1512 1571 1600 1563 1558 1518 1535 Japan (Nikkei 225) 18817 19302 18909 20033 20356 22530 19342 18909 19197 19836 20033 19974 19720 20356 22198 22730 22530 21650 21705 Emerging market and 794 861 958 1011 1082 1139 936 958 978 1005 1011 1066 1088 1082 1119 1121 1139 1158 1210 developing economies (MSCI) EM Asia 404 419 474 512 543 577 459 474 484 505 512 538 544 543 571 572 577 584 605 EM Europe 244 295 301 304 331 341 296 301 313 308 304 315 336 331 330 330 341 354 374 EM Europe and Middle East 211 248 252 251 268 275 249 252 259 255 251 261 274 268 268 265 275 285 298 EM Latin America & Caribbean 1830 2341 2611 2544 2917 2811 2600 2611 2601 2532 2544 2752 2873 2917 2809 2719 2811 2945 3120 Exchange rates (LCU / USD) Advanced economies Euro Area 0.90 0.90 0.94 0.91 0.85 0.85 0.94 0.94 0.93 0.91 0.89 0.87 0.85 0.84 0.85 0.85 0.84 0.82 0.81 Japan 121.00 108.80 113.63 111.10 110.96 112.75 112.96 112.91 110.02 112.36 110.91 112.31 109.78 110.80 112.93 112.81 112.51 109.83 106.64 Emerging market and developing economies Brazil 3.33 3.49 3.14 3.21 3.16 3.24 3.10 3.13 3.14 3.20 3.30 3.20 3.15 3.13 3.19 3.26 3.28 3.19 3.23 China 6.29 6.65 6.89 6.86 6.67 6.61 6.87 6.90 6.89 6.88 6.81 6.77 6.67 6.57 6.62 6.62 6.59 6.41 6.34 Egypt 7.70 10.12 17.82 18.10 17.77 17.71 17.01 17.76 18.09 18.10 18.11 17.92 17.75 17.65 17.64 17.68 17.81 17.74 17.71 India 64.14 67.19 66.97 64.48 64.29 64.71 67.01 65.83 64.52 64.46 64.45 64.44 63.97 64.46 65.07 64.85 64.20 63.72 64.22 Russia 61.34 67.06 58.67 57.17 58.93 58.47 58.42 57.83 56.53 56.88 58.10 59.72 59.42 57.66 57.76 58.97 58.70 56.93 56.41 South Africa 12.77 14.71 13.24 13.21 13.19 13.62 13.17 12.95 13.46 13.25 12.91 13.15 13.25 13.17 13.71 14.06 13.11 12.15 11.67 Memo: U.S. nominal effective rate 114.6 119.7 123.5 120.7 116.6 117.5 123.1 122.5 121.7 121.0 119.4 117.9 116.5 115.5 117.5 117.7 117.4 114.7 113.7 (index) Sources: Bloomberg, J.P. Morgan, and World Bank. 1 MRV = most recent value. 2017 2017 2018 MRV 1 2015 2016 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Energy 2 65 55 68 64 65 75 69 65 67 64 60 62 65 68 71 76 78 85 85 Non-energy 2 82 79 85 82 84 85 86 84 82 82 82 83 84 85 85 85 85 87 87 2 Agriculture 88 88 89 87 86 86 90 88 87 88 87 88 85 86 86 86 86 88 88 Metals and minerals 2 68 64 78 74 81 84 79 79 75 73 72 76 83 84 84 84 85 89 87 Memo items: Crude oil, average ($/bbl) 51 43 53 50 50 59 54 51 52 50 46 48 50 53 55 60 61 66 63 Gold ($/toz) 1161 1249 1219 1258 1278 1275 1234 1231 1267 1246 1260 1237 1283 1314 1280 1282 1264 1331 1331 Baltic Dry Index 711 676 938 1023 1138 1509 760 1142 1229 979 861 906 1144 1363 1484 1455 1589 1234 1087 Sources: World Bank, World Bank Commodities Price Data (The Pink Sheet), Bloomberg. 1 MRV = most recent value. 2 Indexes, 2010 = 100. 10