WORLDBANKGROUP G D R EUROPE ANDCENTRAL RIKPROF]LES AS1A(ECA) AFFECTED BY 100-YEAR AFFECTED BY 250-YEAR CAPITAL LOSS FROM 250-YEAR FLOOD EARTHQUAKE EARTHQUAKE GDP $185 billion* Romani,a AE EPUIJB LE Romania's population and economy and agriculture making a small are exposed to earthquakes and floods, contribution. Romania's per with earthquakes posing the greater capita GDP was $9,490. risk of a high impact, lower probability Botosani event. The model results for pres- T m dya T Maramures ent-day risk shown in this risk profile ice in Romania, with greater HUNGARY are based on population and gross color saturation indicating domestic product (GDP) estimates for greater GDP within a province. MttDnVA 2015. The estimated damage caused by The blue circles indicate the historical events is inflated to 2015 US risk of experiencing floods dollars. and the orange circles the risk of earthquakes in terms of HMgWitresl Just over half of Romania's popula- normalized annual average of tion lives in urban environments. The affected GDP. The largest circles Aad b/ 4A country's GDP was approximately represent the greatest normal- US$185 billion in 2015, with over 50 ized risk- The risk is estimated percent derived from services, most of using flood and earthquake risk Huedoara B the remainder generated by industry models. TOP AFFECTED PROVINCES Nrisk The table displays the prov- inces atgreatest normalized for each peril. In relative7 Caras-iever1n Gorj11i V it a S terms, as shown in the table, ( 0u EARTHQUAKE thprvneagraetrsofMhdniW 'hares ltmt., ANNUAL AVERAGE OF ANNUAL AVERAGE OF floods islalomita, and the one SERBIA AFFECTED GDP (%) AFFECTED GDP (%) at greatest risk of earthquakes lalornita 9 Braila 7 isfraila. In absolutefrs, T9i a Satu Mare Vrancea 7 the province at greatest risk of Teleorman N Buzau 6 floods is Timis, and,the one at Ca[arasi Iasi 4 Galati 6 greatest risk of'earthquakes is Annual Average of Affected GOP GDP (billions of BLACK SEA Arad 4 Prahova 5 Bucuresti. Giurgiu 4 lalomita 5 There is a high correlation Calarasi 4 Calarasi 4 (r0.95) between the Alba 3 Bucuresti 4 population and GDP of a Timis 3 Giurgiu 3 0 ERHUK province. Nearnt 3 Bacau 3 0 Negligible Roai WORLDBANKGROUP ROPE AND CENTRAL E|GDR A51A(ECA) R omania's most deadly flood since 1900 occurred in 1926 flood will occur exactly once every 100 years. In fact, it is possible for a nd caused about 1,000 fatal- flood of any return period to occur ities. More recently, flooding in 1970 more than once in the same year, or caused over 200 fatalities and at least to appear in consecutive years, or not $3 billion in damage. Floods in 1975 to happen at all over a long period of caused approximately 60 fatalities. time. Three floods in 2005 caused close to 60 deaths and almost $2 billion in damage. Further flooding in 2010 same height, then the impact of a 10- caused no fatalities but over $1 year event is as large as that of a 100- HENGARa billion in damage. These statistics year event, and the annual avenge of M OLDOVA highlight the lives saved by disaster ac G is d t e risk management efforts, but also the that happen relatively frequently. possibility that the damage associat- If the impact of a 100-year event is ed with flooding will rise. much greater than that of a 10-year event, then less frequent events make This map depicts the impact of flood- a larger contribution to the annual ing on provinces' GDPs, represented average of affected GDP. Thus, even as percentages of their annual aver- if a province's annual affected GDP age GDPs affected, with greater color seems small, less frequent and more saturation indicating higher percent- intense events can still have large ages. The bar graphs represent GDP impacts. affected by floods with return periods of 10 years (white) and 100 years T nge l (black). The horizontal line across the a t f i n i bars also shows the annual average of about 300,000 and the annual av- Gor De boit GDP affected by floods. erage affected GDP about $2 billion. Since within the various provincesMeoit When a flood has a 10-year return the impacts from 10- and 100-year S I period, it means the probability of floods do not differ much, relatively occurrence of a flood of that magni- frequent floods have largeimpacts on tude or greater is 10 percent per year. these averages. And 00e r A 100-year flood has a probability O0 ak 1 r n 30 of occurrence of 1 percent per year. This means that over a long period of 3 time, a flood of that magnitude will, on average, occur once every 100 Annualaverage 5 BLACK SEA years. It does not mean a 100-year 1 r c p [o 10-year 100-year t1a aaa 10 6f Rom aniaWORLDBANKGROUP GF RROP EL CENTRAL AND) A5IA(ECA) R omania's worst earthquake since 1900 took place in 1977 of any return period to occur more than once in the same year, or to URA NE in Vrancea, with a magnitude appear in consecutive years, or not of 7.2. It caused more than 1,500 to happen at all over a long period fatalities and close to $8 billion in of time. damage. Other major earthquakes affecting Romania occurred in 1802, If the 10- and 100-year bars are the 1838, 1940, 1986, and 1990. The same height, then the impact of a 1802 event, also centered in Vran- 10-year event is as large as that of a cea, was one of the largest earth- 100-year event, and the annual aver- Maren quakes on record to occur in Europe, age of affected GDP is dominated by HENGARa and the largest to strike Romania. events that happen relatively fre- quently. If the impact of a 100-year _ This map depicts the impact of event is much greater than that of earthquakes on provinces' GDPs, a 10-year event, then less frequent represented as percentages of their events make larger contributions to annual average GDPs affected, with the annual average of affected GDP. greater color saturation indicating Thus, even if a province's annual higher percentages. The bar graphs affected GDP seems small, less fre- Arad represent GDP affected by earth- quent and more intense events can quakes with return periods of 10 still have large impacts. years (white) and 100 years (black). The horizontal line across the bars also shows the annual average of affected by earthquakes in Romania GDPis GD fetdb about 400,000 and the annual av- atqae.erage affected GDP about $5 billion. J Carai-severJn When an earthquake has a 10-year The annual averages of fatalities and 7GorjMil0it return period, it means the prob- capital losses caused by earthquakes ability of occurrence of an earth- are about 400 and about $500 Mehedinti quake of that magnitude or greater million, respectively. The fatalities SERBIA is 10 percent per year. A 100-year and capital losses caused by more earthquake has a probability of intense, less frequent events can occurrence of t percent per year. be substantially larger than the 10 and 100-year return periods This means that over a long period annual averages. For example, an of time, an earthquake of that mag- earthquake with a-0.4 percent nitude will, on average, occur once annual probability of occurrence (a 3 every 100 years. It does not mean 250-year return period event) could a 100-year earthquake will occur cause about 5,000 fatalities and Annual averageA 20 BLACK SEA exactly once every 100 years. In $20 billion in capital loss (about 10 fact, it is possible for an earthquake percent of GDP). 10-year 100-year RomniaWORLDBANKGROUP ROPE ANDCENTRAL E|GDR A51A(ECA) EARTHQUAKE EARTHQUAKE ANNUAL AVERAGE CAPITAL LOSS (MILLIONS $) ANNUAL AVERAGE FATALITIES he rose diagrams show the provinces with the potential T for greatest annual average capital losses and highest annual average numbers of fatalities, as determined using an earthquake risk model. The potential for greatest capital Braila 20 lati 20 Dimbo t 0 Buzu 5 loss occurs in Bucuresti, which is not surprising, given the economic importance of the province. e EARTHQUAKE EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITY CURVE, 2015 AND 2080 EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITY CURVE, 2015 AND 2080 he exceedance probability curves display the GDP 1 affected by, respectively, floods and earthquakes for 60 700 varying probabilities of occurrence. Values for two different time periods are shown. A solid line depicts the affected 50 600 GDP for 2015 conditions. A diagonally striped band depicts 200 500 the range of affected GDP based on a selection of climate 2080 40 Pand socioeconomic scenarios for 2080. For example, if 400 Romania had experienced a 100-year return period flood 30 28 300 event in 2015, the affected GDP would have been an esti- 20 mated $10 billion. In 2080, however, the affected GDPfrom 2015 - 200 the same type of event would range from about $30 billion 100 2015 to about $50 billion. If Romania had experienced a 250-year earthquake event in 2015, the affected GDP would have 10' 50 100 250 been about $100 billion. In 2080, the affected GDP from the Rturn period (years) Return pened (years) same type of event would range from about $200 billion to --------------- about $600 billion, due to population growth, urbanization, 0..4110 21 04 1 r l 0.Probabihty(%) and the increase in exposed assets. All historical data on floods and earthquakes are from, respectively, D.Guha-Sapir, R Below, and Ph. Hoyois, EM-DAT: International Disaster Database (Universit6 Catholique de Louvain, Brussels, Belgium), www.emdat.be, and L Daniell and A. Schaefer, "Eastern Europe and Central Asia Region Earthquake Risk Assessmert Country and Province Profiling," final reportto GFDRR, 2014. Damage estimates for all historical events have been inflated to 2015 US$.