The World Bank Ethiopia General Education Quality Improvement Project II (P129828) REPORT NO.: RES35100 RESTRUCTURING PAPER ON A PROPOSED PROJECT RESTRUCTURING OF ETHIOPIA GENERAL EDUCATION QUALITY IMPROVEMENT PROJECT II APPROVED ON NOVEMBER 12, 2013 TO FEDERAL DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC OF ETHIOPIA EDUCATION GLOBAL PRACTICE AFRICA REGION Regional Vice President: Hafez M. H. Ghanem Country Director: Carolyn Turk Senior Global Practice Director: Jaime Saavedra Chanduvi Practice Manager: Safaa El Tayeb El-Kogali Task Team Leaders: Hiroshi Saeki, Girma Woldetsadik The World Bank Ethiopia General Education Quality Improvement Project II (P129828) ABBREVIATIONS AND ACRONYMS DFID Department for International Development of the United Kingdom GEQIPII General Education Quality Improvement Project GOE Government of Ethiopia GPE Global Partnership for Education ICT Information and Communication Technology MDTF Multi-Donor Trust Fund MOE Ministry of Education PDO Project Development Objective UNICEF United Nations Children’s Fund USAID United States Agency for International Development The World Bank Ethiopia General Education Quality Improvement Project II (P129828) BASIC DATA Product Information Project ID Financing Instrument P129828 Investment Project Financing Original EA Category Current EA Category Not Required (C) Not Required (C) Approval Date Current Closing Date 12-Nov-2013 30-Jun-2019 Organizations Borrower Responsible Agency Ministry of Finance and Economic Cooperation, Federal Ministry of Education, Federal Democratic Republic of Democratic Republic of Ethiopia,Ministry of Finance and Ethiopia Economic Cooperation Project Development Objective (PDO) Original PDO The higher order objective for the eight years' program is ‘Improving the quality of General Education (Grades 1-12) throughout thecountry’. The specific PDO for GEQIP II is ‘Improving learning conditions in primary and secondary schools and strengthening of institutions at different levels of educational administration’. OPS_TABLE_PDO_CURRENTPDO Summary Status of Financing Net Ln/Cr/Tf Approval Signing Effectiveness Closing Commitment Disbursed Undisbursed IDA-53150 12-Nov-2013 05-Dec-2013 18-Feb-2014 30-Jun-2019 130.00 125.65 .03 TF-A6267 12-Feb-2018 12-Feb-2018 12-Feb-2018 30-Jun-2019 18.19 0 18.19 TF-A4619 17-Jul-2017 17-Jul-2017 17-Jul-2017 30-Jun-2019 62.50 49.19 13.31 The World Bank Ethiopia General Education Quality Improvement Project II (P129828) TF-A4701 17-Jul-2017 17-Jul-2017 17-Jul-2017 30-Apr-2018 7.00 7.00 0 TF-18053 01-Oct-2014 01-Oct-2014 01-Oct-2014 30-Jun-2019 212.07 201.51 10.56 TF-16684 09-May-2014 09-May-2014 09-May-2014 16-Feb-2018 100.00 100.00 0 Policy Waiver(s) Does this restructuring trigger the need for any policy waiver(s)? No I. PROJECT STATUS AND RATIONALE FOR RESTRUCTURING 1. The General Education Quality Improvement Project (GEQIP II) was approved on November 12, 2013 and became effective on February 18, 2014. The project is financed by (i) IDA (cr-53150-ET); (ii) the Multi-Donor Trust Fund (MDTF) TF0A6267 and TF018053; and (iii) the Global Partnership for Education (GPE) grant TF0A4619 and GPE TF016684 and TF0A4701, which closed on February 16 and April 30, 2018 respectively. The total project financing is US$530 million, with pooled funding from IDA, GPE, and MDTF (DFID, Finland, Italy, Norway, UNICEF and USAID). This restructuring proposes an extension of six months from June 30, 2019 to December 31, 2019. This will be the third extension for a cumulative length of 18 months. If approved, the project would be 6 years at the revised closing date. 2. GEQIP II is a flagship investment program focusing on improvements in general education. GEQIP II is nested within the national sector strategy, the Education Sector Development Program V, and supports activities in six areas: (i) curriculum implementation and textbook and learning material provision; (ii) teachers and school leaders development; (iii) school improvement program; (iv) strengthening system management and capacity building; (v) improving education quality through information and communication technology (ICT); and (vi) program planning and coordination, monitoring and evaluation. The project also supports ‘0’ classes (6-year-old pre-school classes in primary school compounds) in curriculum and teachers’ guide development, learning material provision, teacher training and conducting assessments of school readiness. 3. The Government of Ethiopia (GOE) has requested on May 13, 2019 that the closing date of the IDA credit, TF018053, TF0A6267, and TF0A4619 be extended to December 31, 2019, to enable the Government to complete the following remaining project activities. First, there has been a delay in the completion of contracts for the printing and distribution of G1-8 English textbooks (US$30 million) because of procurement issues. Contracts were signed with two firms on August 7, 2018, but one of the losing bidders officially filed a complaint to the Federal Supreme Court of Ethiopia leading to the suspension of disbursement to winning firms. After a long delay, the court ruled in favor of the Ministry of Education (MoE) on April 19, 2019 to proceed with implementing the contracts. However, the completion of the printing and distribution of textbooks would take The World Bank Ethiopia General Education Quality Improvement Project II (P129828) a few months and would go beyond the current closing date. Second, there is also ongoing procurement of ICT infrastructure for 300 secondary schools and 10 universities, as well as textbooks, including primary mother tongues textbooks and supplementary materials including G9-12 braille (valued at US$9.1 million), which are in their final stage of contract delivery. These contracts are unlikely to be fully completed by June 30, 2019. 4. With this proposed extension, GEQIP II is likely to achieve its development objectives (PDO) of improving learning conditions in primary and secondary schools and improving system management. Two of the six PDO- level indicators have already been met and two are likely to be met. The remaining two PDO indicators show more modest progress. First, 57.5% of Level 1 schools have moved to Level 2 or Level 3 and 8.5% of Level 2 schools have moved to Level 3 against a target of 10% and 5% respectively. Second, there has been tangible improvements in teaching effectiveness in Level 1 and Level 2 schools. Third, the 2018 textbooks survey confirmed that the ratio of primary school students to newly procured mother tongue textbooks improved from 1:0 to 1:0.74. which is close to the target of 1:1. This target is likely to be achieved as MoE and regional education bureaus provide additional textbooks to schools at the beginning of next school year. Fourth, despite improved availability, however, the survey shows that on average only 31% of students bring their textbooks to classes (against the target of 90% for mathematics, and 70% for science and social science). Fifth, the 2018 school grant evaluation results show that only 74% of schools (against the target of 100%) have used at least half of their school grant for the teaching learning domain of the School Improvement Plan. Finally, Grade 1 dropout rate has decreased from 25% to 19.49% (against the target of 17%). 5. Furthermore, 21 of the intermediate 22 indicators have been met or are likely to be met by project completion. These are commendable achievements which can be further consolidated during the remaining period of project implementation. One intermediate indicator which is unlikely to be achieved include: percentage of schools receiving school grants by October 31 of each year. The project has already disbursed school grants and there is not another round of school grants within the project period. 6. As of May 8, 2019, 99.97 percent of the IDA credit; 95 percent of TF18053; 0 percent of TFA6267; and 78 per cent of GPE TFA4619 have been disbursed respectively. A total of about US$42.40 million remains to be disbursed: IDA (cr-53150): US$0.032 million; TF018053: US$10.56 million; TF0A6267: US$18.19 million; and TFA4619: US$13.63 million. The project continues to be rated Moderately Satisfactory both on progress towards achievement of PDO and overall implementation progress. The latest project audit report, which was unqualified, was received on January 4, 2019. The World Bank, on March 8, 2019, had communicated to the Borrower that the audit report was acceptable. The next audit report for 2018/19 fiscal year is not yet due. II. DESCRIPTION OF PROPOSED CHANGES 7. There will be no change in the PDO, components and indicators. The present restructuring seeks management’s approval for GEQIP II extension by six months from June 30, 2019 to December 31, 2019 to allow the IDA credit 53150, Multi-Donor Trust Funds (TFA6267 and TF18053), and GPE grant TFA4619 to finance the The World Bank Ethiopia General Education Quality Improvement Project II (P129828) completion of the remaining project activities discussed above. The end target dates for the indicators that relate to these activities will be adjusted to be aligned with the proposed new closing date. 8. The members of the Education Technical Working Group (ETWG) were consulted on this request and the ETWG including GEQIP II pooling partners have endorsed the Government of Ethiopia's request for an extension of GEQIP II. 9. The following is an action plan for completing the remaining activities. - Open letter of credit for G1-8 English textbooks (MoF) by May 31, 2019 - Complete the delivery of G1-8 English textbooks (MoE) by September 30, 2019 - Final acceptance of G1-8 English textbooks and closure of contracts by November 30, 2019 - Final acceptance of primary mother tongue textbooks and supplementary materials, and G9-12 braille textbooks (Ministry of Education) by August 31, 2019 - Final delivery and acceptance of installation and commissioning of ICT infrastructure in all 300 secondary schools and 10 universities (Centre for ICT in MoE) by August 31, 2019 III. SUMMARY OF CHANGES Changed Not Changed Results Framework ✔ Loan Closing Date(s) ✔ Implementation Schedule ✔ Implementing Agency ✔ DDO Status ✔ Project's Development Objectives ✔ Components and Cost ✔ Cancellations Proposed ✔ Reallocation between Disbursement Categories ✔ Disbursements Arrangements ✔ Disbursement Estimates ✔ Overall Risk Rating ✔ Safeguard Policies Triggered ✔ EA category ✔ The World Bank Ethiopia General Education Quality Improvement Project II (P129828) Legal Covenants ✔ Institutional Arrangements ✔ Financial Management ✔ Procurement ✔ Other Change(s) ✔ Economic and Financial Analysis ✔ Technical Analysis ✔ Social Analysis ✔ Environmental Analysis ✔ IV. DETAILED CHANGE(S) OPS_DETAILEDCHANGES_LOANCLOSING_TABLE LOAN CLOSING DATE(S) Original Revised Proposed Proposed Deadline Ln/Cr/Tf Status Closing Closing(s) Closing for Withdrawal Applications 31-Dec-2018, 30- IDA-53150 Effective 07-Jul-2018 31-Dec-2019 30-Apr-2020 Jun-2019 16-Feb-2018, 28- TF-16684 Closed 17-Feb-2017 Aug-2018 31-Dec-2018, 30- TF-18053 Effective 31-Jul-2018 31-Dec-2019 30-Apr-2020 Jun-2019 31-Dec-2018, 30- TF-A4619 Effective 07-Jul-2018 31-Dec-2019 30-Apr-2020 Jun-2019 TF-A4701 Closed 30-Apr-2018 18-Dec-2018 31-Dec-2018, 30- TF-A6267 Effective 07-Jul-2018 31-Dec-2019 30-Apr-2020 Jun-2019 . The World Bank Ethiopia General Education Quality Improvement Project II (P129828) . Results framework COUNTRY: Ethiopia Ethiopia General Education Quality Improvement Project II Project Development Objectives(s) The higher order objective for the eight years' program is ‘Improving the quality of General Education (Grades 1-12) throughout thecountry’. The specific PDO for GEQIP II is ‘Improving learning conditions in primary and secondary schools and strengthening of institutions at different levels of educational administration’. Project Development Objective Indicators by Objectives/ Outcomes RESULT_FRAME_TBL_PDO Indicator Name DLI Baseline End Target Improving learning conditions in primary and secondary schools Textbooks availability and utilisation: ratio of primary students to 1:0 1:1 newly procured mother tongue textbooks (Text) Action: This indicator has been Revised Textbook availability and utilisation: Percentage of students that 58% in 2012/13 GEQIP1 comprehensive evaluation 90% for mathematics, 70% for science and social science bring their textbooks to school (Text) Action: This indicator has been Revised Teacher effectiveness measured as an index of average scores of school inspection standards on teachers knowledge, lesson 45.4% (Level 1); 59.3% (Level 2) Progress in the index at both levels planning, teaching practices and assessment practices (Text) Percentage of schools using at least half of their school grant DNA 100.00 allocation for the SIP teaching and learning domain (Text) Strengthening of institutions at different levels of educational administration Increased MoE capacity for evidence-based decision making as 25.00 17.00 reflected in reduction in dropout rate in Grade 1 (Percentage) The World Bank Ethiopia General Education Quality Improvement Project II (P129828) RESULT_FRAME_TBL_PDO Indicator Name DLI Baseline End Target Action: This indicator has been Revised Increased MoE capacity for evidence-based decision making as 19.1% (Level 1); 68.2% (Level 2) Based on 18,372 schools 10% of Level 1 schools, and 5% of Level 2 schools move up reflected in percentage of Grade 1 and Grade 2 schools that have inspected in 2013/14 and 2014/15 to Level 2 and 3 respectively. moved up to Grade 2 and 3 respectively (Text) PDO Table SPACE Intermediate Results Indicators by Components RESULT_FRAME_TBL_IO Indicator Name DLI Baseline End Target Curriculum, Textbooks, Assessment, Examinations and Inspection No of textbooks and supplementary materials distributed to O 0.00 120,000,000.00 class - Grade 12 (cumulative) (Number) Action: This indicator has been Revised Teacher Development Program Number of post-graduate diploma in school leadership graduates 897.00 800.00 (annual) (Number) Number of diploma graduates from Colleges of Teacher 12,925 10,000 is a target for 2017/18 and not cumulative. Education (annual) (Text) Number of post-graduate diploma in teaching regular graduates 3,139.00 1,500.00 from universities (annual) (Number) Number of primary teachers upgraded from certificate to 22,808.00 22,000.00 diploma (annual) (Number) Number of teachers upgraded from diploma to post-graduate 652.00 13,000.00 diploma in teaching in summer (Number) The World Bank Ethiopia General Education Quality Improvement Project II (P129828) RESULT_FRAME_TBL_IO Indicator Name DLI Baseline End Target Number of teachers who received ELTIP training (cumulative) 0.00 10,000.00 (Number) Number of G7-8 teachers who received maths and science 0.00 20,000.00 updating training (cumulative) (Number) Management and Capacity Building, including EMIS Dissemination of Education Statistics Annual Abstract by early October following the school year. Binary outcome: 1 if 0.00 1.00 delivered; 0 otherwise. (Number) Action: This indicator has been Revised Number of national learning assessment items banked for grades 4, 8, 10 and 12 with acceptable psychometric characteristics. 0.00 800 items for G4 and G8; and 1000 for G10 and G12 (Text) Number of primary and secondary teachers who took written 30,256.00 200,000.00 licensing exam. (Number) Percentage of schools inspected. (Number) 0.00 95.00 Percentage of Level 1 and Level 2 schools re-inspected. (Text) 0.00 16,033 schools re-inspected by 2017/18. Improving the Quality of Learning and Teaching through the use of Information and Communication Technology (ICT) Procurement and delivery of E-cloud infrastructure. Binary: 1 if 0.00 1.00 delivered; 0 otherwise. (Number) Action: This indicator has been Revised School Improvement Plan Percentage of schools receiving school grants by October 31 of 0.00 80.00 each year. (Percentage) Program Coordination, Monitoring and Evaluation, and Communication The World Bank Ethiopia General Education Quality Improvement Project II (P129828) RESULT_FRAME_TBL_IO Indicator Name DLI Baseline End Target Planning and Resource Mobilization Directorate produces consolidated annual GEQIP work plan by mid-May each year. 0.00 1.00 Binary 1 if delivered; 0 if otherwise. (Number) Action: This indicator has been Revised Submission of consolidated semi-annual report (March) and annual report (Sept) of GEQIP2. Binary 1 if delivered; 0 if 0.00 1.00 otherwise. (Number) Action: This indicator has been Revised Production of final reports from the proposed specialized evaluations (two school grants evaluations, textbooks survey, Evaluations (2 school grant, 1 textbooks, comprehensive 0.00 comprehensive beneficiaries survey) evaluations undertaken beneficiaries survey) undertaken. (Text) Students benefiting from direct interventions to enhance 20,137,555.00 23,650,000.00 learning (CRI, Number) Action: This indicator has been Revised Students benefiting from direct interventions to enhance 46.00 48.70 learning - Female (CRI, Number) Action: This indicator has been Revised IO Table SPACE The World Bank Ethiopia General Education Quality Improvement Project II (P129828)