- _________________________________________________ _______ . . , 2002 . www.worldbank.org/eca/environment , , , . : , , . ..................................................................................................................................4 ....................................................................................6 ...........................................................................................7 ...........................................................................................................................8 ..................................................................................................8 ... .............................9 .................................................................10 1. ............................................................12 ...................................................................................................................................12 , ...................................................................12 ..................................................................................................14 2. ....................................16 .............................................................................................................................17 ..........................................................................................................................................22 3. ......................................................23 ................................................23 ?................................................................................24 ?.....................................................................................26 .............................................................................................28 ?....................................29 ..........................................................................................................................................29 4. ..............................31 : ................................................................................................. 32 : .............................................................................35 ..............................40 ..........................................................................................................................................41 5. ...........................................................................42 ........................................................................................................................42 , ............................................................................................................................... 43 ...................................................................45 ......................................................................................................49 ..........................................................................................................................................50 .................................................................................................................................52 1. ..................................53 2. ........................................................................55 3. ...................59 4. ...............67 5. ...............................................................................70 6. ...............................................................75 7. ...........................76 8. .........................................................................................................................77 .............................................................................................................................85 1-1. 1961 1990 ( ).................................................................................................... 13 1-2. 1991-2000 ................................................................................................................ 14 2-1. ( ) .................................................................................. 19 2-2. .............................................. 20 2-3. .................................................21 3-1. ()....................................................................................... 24 3-2. ( ) .................................... 25 3-3. () .......................................................................................... 26 3-4. ...................................................................28 4-1. ............................33 4-2. ().................................................................... 34 4-3. ................................................................ 36 4-4. (, ) ............. 37 4-5. : ........................................................................................................................... 38 2-1. ()....................................16 2-2. ()....................................17 2-3. ( 2001 [ ])................... 18 3-1. 2000 , ....................................... 27 2 4-1. ......................................................................................................................... 40 4-2. - ........................................... 41 3 " " () , . ­ , . . . , , , , ( , ) . , , . , , , , , . 30 50 , 25 40 . , , , . , , , . , , , , . , , , "" , , , , , . , . , , , . , , . , , . , , . - , , , , . , , , 4 , , , , . (Pradeep Mitra) 5 . 10 . - , , , , ( , ) . 6 . (Julian A. Lampietti) ( ) . (Anke S. Meyer). (Laszlo Lovei) ( ECSEG), (Lee Travers) ( ECSIE) (David Craig) ( ECSEG). , . : (Gediz Kaya), (Irina Klytchnikova), (Brian Kropp), - (Haiyung Liu) (Xun Wu). (Paul Holtz), (Bruce Ross Larson) (Stephanie Rostron). (Alexandre Mark) ( ECSSD) (Henk Busz) ( ECSIE). : "Urban Heating Strategy Development for Republic of Armenia", Environmental Resource Management, COWI A/S; "Development of Heat Strategy for Kyrgyz Republic", COWI A/S; "Strategic Heating Options for Moldova", SWEDPOWER/FVB; "Surveys of Metered District Heated Consumers in Estonia and the Slovak Republic", Kantor Management Consultants. 7 . 10 . , 1, , . - , , . , ­ , . ,, , . , , , , . , . , , "" ­ , , . , , , "" . , , , , . , . : 30 50 , 25 40 . , , , . , , , . , , , , . : , , 1 , : , , , , , , . 8 , "" , , , , , . , . , , , . , , . , , . , , . : , 500 Kgoe 0.20 ( 0.017 ). , , , , , , . , , , , , , , . , "" , , . . , , (, ), , . "" , . , . ... , , , , , , , , , . , , , , , , (). . 9 , . . . , , , , , , . , ( ), , . , , , , , . , , , . , . , , , , . ­ . , , , . , ( , ). , . , . , . , , , . . . , 10 , . , . , , "" , , , , . , , . - , , , . , , , , , [] , . , , , , . , , . , , , . 11 1. . , - , . , [] , . , , . , , . . . ­ , . , , , , . (. 1-1). 20 , 5-7 . , , , , . , . , , 100 . , , . 50- , , , , , (). 12 . , , 8 . , , 8 . 20 , , , ­ . 90- . . , . 1-1. 1961 1990 ( ) : , , , 90- . , , . , . , , . 13 , , , , . 1991 1996 14 . 1996 2000 , ­ . , . 1-2. 1991-2000 . Clean fuels = Dirty fuels = Average GDP per capita = : , , , . , , , . . , , 1991 2000 177 .2 2 , , , , , , , , , . 14 1991 2000 1-2. ( , , , , ) (, , ) . (110 1991 2000 .) (45 ). , , , , . 15 2. ­ . . , , , . , (, , , , , ), , ( 1997 ) , , . , , , , 1, 2 3. 1990 1997 (World Bank 2001). , , . (. 2-1). 2-1. ( ) , 1999 11 14 4 16 97 99 , 1997 15 39 19 30 99 100 , 1999 17 55 13 33 100 99 , 1997 70 83 57 68 99 100 , 1998 31 46 47 56 85 94 , 1999 17 57 37 70 65 89 , 1999 1 1 3 6 100 100 : , . , . . ­ , , ? , , ­ 16 (, ) ­ . , , ? , . . , (. 2-2). , , () ­ . , , , , , . ( , ), , , (. 4). 2-2. ( ) 17 27 14 11 .. .. 47 50 44 45 3 7 1 1 51 26 24 39 31 17 60 31 46 22 37 28 .. .. <1 <1 1 2 .. .. .. .. <1 <1 1 2 6 7 .. .. 9 5 12 9 .. .. <1 1 11 18 47 32 ..: , : , . - . , , (kgoe) 0.25 (. 2-3).3 ( ) , ( ). , , , 3 . (kgoe) , , . : 1 / = 0.085 kgoe; 1 = 0.833 kgoe; 1 () = 1,059 kgoe; 1 = 0.824 kgoe; 1 = 0.376 kgoe; 1 = 0.541 kgoe. : . 17 . , . , . , ; ­ . , , , , : , , . , , . . 2-3. ( 2001 [ ]) 0.59 0.40 0.07 0.56 0.16 0.12 0.18 0.88 0.17 0.21 0.94 0.11 0.25 .. 0.22 0.50 0.01 0.05 0.08 0.07 0.04 0.35 0.21 0.12 0.60 0.17 0.76 0.35 0.26 0.21 0.13 0.60 0.11 0.20 0.28 0.41 0.19 0.10 0.45 0.10 0.11 0.15 0.33 0.11 <0.01 0.03 <0.01 0.06 0.13 ..: , : , . , , (. 2-1). 325 kgoe , 75 kgoe . (160 kgoe 118 kgoe). , , , , , . ­ 3 12 (. 2-2).4 ( , , , , , 4 , . 18 , .) , , , .5 , (Freund and Wallich, 1996) , . , , , , , , , . 2-1. ( ) Kgoe per capita per year = Poor = Nonpoor = Armenia = Kyrgyz Republic = Croatia = Moldova = Tajikistan = Lithuania = Latvia = : , . 5 , . 19 2-2. Percentage of total spending = ( ) Poor = Nonpoor = Armenia = Kyrgyz Republic = Croatia = Moldova = Tajikistan = Lithuania = Latvia = : , . , (Subramanian and Deaton, 1996) , , , . , , , . 2-3. , , , , , , . () 8- () 5- () . , ( ) , , , "" . , , , 20 ( , ). 2-3. Expenditure elasticity = Poor = Nonpoor = Armenia = Kyrgyz Republic = Croatia = Moldova = Tajikistan = Lithuania = Latvia = : , . 21 , , , , . , , , , . , , . , 0.8 0.5 . , . , , , , , - . , , "" , . , , , . , , , ( , ). 22 3. , , , , , . , , , , . , , , " . , " (Filipov 2001). 3-1 .6 , , () (), , . , , . -, "" . -, , 7 , "" , . , , , . , , , , , , ­ , (. 4). 6 , , (1999 .), (1999 .) (1999 .). 7 5. 23 3-1. () Clean fuels (electricity, central gas, kerosene) = (, , ) Combination clean and dirty = Dirty fuels (wood, coal) = ( , ) Percent of households = ( ) Bottom = Top = Armenia = Moldova = Kyrgyz Republic = Quintile and Country = : . : , 1999 . ? , . , , ( 5 6).8 3-2 .9 8 , , , , , , , . 9 - , , () , , , () . , . 24 : , .10 , , , ­ , , . 3-2. ( ) Predicted nonheat = Predicted heat = Kyrgyz Republic nonpoor = , Kyrgyz Republic poor = , Moldova nonpoor = , Moldova poor = , Armenia nonpoor = , Armenia poor = , Kgoe per year = : , , . : . , , 50 kgoe 125 kgoe . 40 kgoe , 175 kgoe 180 kgoe . , 40-60 . . (2.6 ); (0.6 ) , . 10 . 25 (-2.9 ). , , . ? , , . , 5-10 20-40 . , (. 3-3). 30-50 , 25-40 . 3-3. ( ) Percent of total expenditure on heat = ( ) Poor = Nonpoor = Armenia = Kyrgyz Republic = Moldova = : , , . : , . . -, , ó , , , . -, , , , . -, 25-40 , . , , 26 , . , , . , , , . 10 20 , , (. 3-1). , , , , , ­ , , . 3-1. 2000 , ( ) ( ) , 15.62 17 1.09 , 16.51 21 1.27 , 14.53 9 0.62 , 15.61 17 1.09 : , , 2001 . 27 , , , , , , , . , , ­ , , . , , , (. 3-4). , 250 kgoe 0.2 1 kgoe, . , 0.01 0.20 1 , , , , 0.2 1 kgoe. , . 3-4. Exchange rate (U.S. dollars per kgoe) = ( ) Armenia = Kyrgyz Republic = Moldova = : . : . 28 ? . 0.1 0.2 ­ , () () () . , , . , . ­0.4 ­0.2 ­ , . , . , , , , , . , , . : 25-40 , . , , . : , , , . , , "" , . , , . : , . , ó , , , . , , , . , , , . , , , , , , 0.20 ( 0.017 29 / ). , , , , , . 30 4. 90- (), (), , . , , (. 2 [ 2], "World Bank 2000c") ,11 , , , , , , , . , ; , , , . , . , , , , . , , , . : , 18 12 , , . , 3, , , , , , . 11, , (Estonia District Heating Project): " , , . - . , , , . ­ 85 , 90 90 . , , 24 " (World Bank 2000a: 7). 12 20 ; , 2 . 31 , , , , , , () , . . : , , , 20 . " ". , , , , . (" "), , , . 4-1 , . " ". , ­ ( , , ). , , , , ( = ). , , , .13 ­ , , , , . , , ( = B), . 0.16 1 kgoe 160 , , 1000 kgoe ( 10 ). 13 , , , ; , , - . 32 4-1. Heating costs (U.S. dollars per kgoe) = ( ) Based on 1999/2000 heat demand (B) = 1999/2000 (B) Based on heat demand according to effective indoor temperature of 20 degrees Celsius (A) = 20 (A) Minimum and maximum linear densities in six cities = District heating with gas fuel cost = , Local boiler with gas fuel cost = District heating with zero fuel cost = Linear heat load density, kgoe per meter = ( ) : SweedPower/FVB 2001. - . 0.20-0.35 1 kgoe, $200-900, , . . , , , 135- 324 (. 4-2). , , ; , 33 , , . , 4-2, , 20- .14 , . 17 , , . 4-2. () U.S. dollars per household = Capital = Operations and maintenance = Fuel = CHP = Large HOB = Small HOB = Block B. NG = , Ind. electric stove = Ind. nat. gas stove = , Solid fuel stove = , LPG stove = , Kerosene stove = : 17 110 : COWI 2002a. 14 , , . 34 : , , . 90- , , - . , , . , , , (. 3). , - , , , , , . , , , , . , - , , . , , , , . 1996 1999 . , , , (. 3 8). 4-3 15 . . , , , 14 . 15 1 . 35 4-3. U.S. dollars per year = Moldova, GDP 2000Q1 per capita = , 1- 2000 Moldova, disposable income per capita, 2000Q1 = , 1- 2000 Chisinau, official wages per capita, 2000Q1 = , 1- 2000 Cost of district heating = Moldova, official wages per capita, 2000Q1 = , 1- 2000 Rest of country, official wages per capita, 2000Q1 = , 1- 2000 Fuel component (natural gas) = ( ) Effective indoor temperature, degrees centigrade = ( ) : , , 0.18 kgoe. : SwedPower/FVB 2001. ( ), , , , , . , , 85 (. 4-4). , , , . 36 , . , , , . , , . , , . 4-4. (, ) Percent = Survival (low demand) = ( ) Consolidation (high demand) = ( ) Combined heat and power = Large heat-only boiler = Small heat-only boiler = Block natural gas = , Ind. electric stove = Ind. natural gas stove = , Solid fuel stove = , Liquid propane gas stove = , Kerosene stove = : COWI 2002a. , . , , , , , , . , , , , . 4-5 . 37 , , 4-1, "A" "B". 4-5. : U.S. dollars per flat per year = Survival (low demand) = ( ) Consolidation (high demand) = ( ) Combined heat and power = Large heat-only boiler = Small heat-only boiler = Block natural gas = , Ind. electric stove = Ind. natural gas stove = , Solid fuel stove = , Liquid propane gas stove = , Kerosene stove = : , : 80% - 50 ; 60% - 70 ; 40% - 100 . :COWI 2002a, ERM 2002. ­ 25 50 (. 3) ­ , . , , , ­ , , 38 50 100 .16 , , , , , . , , , . 4-5 . , , . " " (Armenia Urban Heating Strategy) , 17 . , 70-80 (. 4-4). , , , , . , , , , , . , , , . , , . , , . , , , , , . ; , ; ; , , , , , . , .17 16 , : , , 16 , , ; ; , ; , - 12 . : 80 50 ; 60 ­ 70 ; 40 ­ 100 (. ERM 2001, Section 7.5). 17 : SwedPower/FVB (2001); COWI A/S (2002b). 39 . , , . , ­ ( 8). , , , . ­ , . ­ , , , , - , , , . 4-1. () , 1-2 1-2 1-2 3-5 4-5 5-6 10 25 50 : SwedPower/FVB 2001. 4-1 , , . . , [Energy Efficiency and Housing Project] (. World Bank 2002). , , , , , 200 400 ( , ) . , - 4-2. 40 4-2. - ( ) ( ) 145 285 .. 8 4.20 4 17 30 4 120 1.50 .. 15 : + 8.50 ..: : 35 : . , , , , 18 , , . . , , . , , , . , , . , , - , . , [], , , . , , , . 41 5. , , , , ( , ) . , . , . , . , , , . , , , . - 34 18 188 (3.6 ) 1 . , . , . - . , , , . , , , . , , , , , , , . , "" , , . [] . , , (, ), , . 18 , , 1998 ( 2.3 ). ( 7-8 ) . 42 "" , . , . , , , . . . , , . , , , , . , , . , . , , , (, ). , , , . , "" , . , . , , ­ . "" , . "" ( , , ), . , , . , "" , 43 - . , . , . , , , , . , (. 2-1), , , , . , , , , , . , , , (Lovei 2000). , , - . , , , , , - . , , . , , . , , . ( ) ­ , , , . , , , . . . . , , . 44 . , . . 60 (Lovei 2000). , , . , , , , , , , , , (Lampetti and others 2001). , . , 25-40 . , , , . , , , , . . . , , . , , , -. , , , . , ( ), , , . , . , ­ , ­ . , , . 45 , , . , , . , , ­ , . , , . . , , , , , ­ , . , , . , , , , . , , , . , 15-20 . . 4 , . , , , , , , . 200 900 . , , , (. 4), . , , . , , , , , ­ . , , , , , , , . , , . 46 - - , , , . , , , , ( 2 8 , "JP 2002" ). , , , , , , , , . . , , , (. World Bank 2002). - 15-20 . , - , . , , (. 3 8, ). , . (, ) . , , , ( "ESMAP 2001"). , , , . , . , , , , - . , , , , , , . 47 - , . , , , . , ( ), , , . 5-10 ; . , , ( ), . , , . , , 100 ( ) , , 200 . ( ), , , , , . (, 70 ) , , . , , , , (. Kantor 2001). , , , . , () , ­ .. . , , (. 4-4). (.. ) , . . . , . , , . 48 ­ , , . , . , , . , , . , , , . , () , , "" . , . , , , (, ) , . (, ), . , . , , , , . , (, ) . . , , . , , , , . , , . , , . , , , . , 49 , , , , , , . , , , ­ , [] . , , , , . , , . ­ . , , . , , , , , , , . (, ) - , , , , . , . , , , . , , " " , , . , , , . - , , , . , , , , , , . 50 , , , , . , , . , , , . 51 52 1. (2.15 4.30 ), , , 1999 (). , 1996 .* 1996 .* ** 99 ­ 128.54 118.7 146.3 158.47 00 ­ 3.47 130.4 303.3 8.07 99 97 4.16 104.3 117 4.66 ­ 1.16 120.9 191 1.83 99 99 56.94 100 411.5 234.29 98 1.55 124.6 142 1.77 97 0.21 117.6 133.2 0.29 * , (World Bank 2000b). ** , 1996 ( ), ( ), 1996 . , , . , , , , . . -, . -, , , . , , , , 1999 . 53 1999 99 ­ 525.48 · 525.48 00 ­ 43.84 · 43.84 99 97 6.101 0.97 5.877 ­ 9.99 · 9.99128 99 99 1128.00 · 1128.00 98 4.00 4.00 97 0.58 0.97 0.558 · . " " ( 1996 , ) ( ) 2.15 2.15 ( ( ( ) ) ( ) ) 38 2.6 41 1.6 <1 16.2 <1 - 47 2.9 44 1.4 7 5.9 6 1.6 2 8.8 1 1.8 35 5.6 13 1.6 69 2.2 63 1.4 1 , , , ( 1997 ) , , . , . , . , , , , 2 3. : , . 54 2. * LPG kg useLPG pLPG_kg qLPG_kg expLPG KER 1 useKER pKER_1 qKER_1 expKER COL kg useCOL pCOL_kg qCOL_kg expCOL WOD kg useWOD pWOD_kg qWOD_kg expWOD ELE kwh useELE pELE_kwh qELE_kwh expELE CH gc useCH pCH_gc qCH_gc expCH CG m3 useCG pCG_m3 qCG_m3 expCG * : : . : . , , , . *: . ·: . M: . S: . A: . Fuel = /. Use = Price = . Quantity = . Expenditure = . Source = . Period = . 55 56 57 58 3. Variable = Obs = Mean = Std. Dev. = Min = Max = 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 4. , , , , . , , , , , 56 - - . , , , , . , 5-10 . , , , . , , . , , , . . . , , . "" , , (Honicky and others, 1991; Xu and others, 1989). , , , , , , , . , . , . , , , , , . . 9 . , , , . , , 2.5 , , . , , , . "" , . 67 , , . , 3,467 120 (Environmental Resources Management, 2001). 3.2 . "Environmental Resources Management, 2001". , , , , . , , . , , , . , , , , . , . , , , . , , 2000 , 47- . , , 80 , ­ 60 , . , . , , , , , 10 , . , , . , . , , ­ . . , ­ , . 68 20 , 27 . , , , . , . 10 - 200 kgoe, . 2-3 20-30 , , . 69 5. , , . , ­ . , ­ , . , , , , , , . , . , . : 1) , , , 2) , . , , , ­ , . ( ) , , . , . . . 70 : . ) ( oe Kg B. ) ( oe Kg . ) ( oe Kg : . 71 : qOEi = 0 + 1income i + 2p_nh i + 3hhsize i + 4 CHi i (1) (qOE) (i) ­ , , (p_nh), (CH). , (CHi = 0), : qOEi = 0 + 1income i + 2p_nh i + 3hhsize i (2) , (CHi = 1), : qOEi = 0 + 1income i + 2p_nh i + 3hhsize i + 4 i (3) , , , , 4 , i . : qOE _ heating i = 4 i (4) , , i , , : qOE _ heating i = 0 + 1income i + 2p_h i + X'B (5) p_h ­ , X'B ­ , , , . qOE _ heatingi = 4 (5), : i 4 = 0 + 1incomei + 2p_hi + X'B i (6) 4 , (6) . i (6), (1) 4 . (6) (1) i : qOEi = 0 + 1income i + 2p_nh i + 3hhsize i + 0 CHi + 1CHi income + 2 CHi p_hi + X'B .............. (7) , ­ CHi , CHi incomei , CHi p_hi X'B, . , . . F- , R- 0,4 0,5. , , 5 , . , . , , , . . , ó , . , , , . 72 . , 6, . , , . , . . . t-. . t-. . t-. 17,59 2,91 54,03 2,01 17,52 0,36 , -125,73 -2,42 -3485,13 -6,01 -1291,20 -13,04 17,69 4,20 69,14 4,23 18,87 0,48 . (0) 196,88 5,27 377,37 2,65 576,25 3,03 (1) CH x 0,06 3,87 0,31 3,51 0,14 1,45 CH x , -445,03 -9,62 -6123,74 -6,87 -1443,27 -3,49 CH x 34,64 5,27 166,18 8,45 74,75 2,19 CH x (1), -67,33 -4,89 -512,62 -6,63 -40,52 -0,12 (0) CH x 3,74 1,34 13,84 0,69 -108,37 -2,83 (-) 146,07 2,98 317,35 1,89 730,01 2,74 R- 0,5 0,47 0,41 F- F(9.734) = 81,69 F(9.904) = 90,24 F(9.399) = 30,72 N 744 914 409 : . 2001 . , : , , (. 4). , , , , 87 kgoe , , , 100 kgoe . , , , , . . , , , . , . , 73 : , , . 74 6. , (OLS-). OLS-, , . OLS- : · · · , . OLS , . , . . . OLS. , . , , . , . - . ­ , - - . , , OLS-, . - . , - , OLS-. , , OLS, , , , OLS-. , , [] . 75 7. : yij = f + xijb + vi + eij i ­ j ­ . a + vi , . , , , i. . xtreg qOI_oe welf p_nh hhsize CH Chxe CHxp CHxs if h_dev~=2, fe; () = 822 (i) : h_dev = 4 R-sq: = 0.1532 : . = 43 = 0.5014 . = 205.5 = 0.1454 . = 349 F(7,811) = 20.96 corr(u_i, Xb) = 0.0881 Prob > f = 0.0000 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ qOE_oe | . . . t P>|t| [95% ] ---------+-------------------------------------------------------------------- welf | -73.54967 12.59018 -5.842 0.000 -98.26285 -48.83648 p_nh | -.1238701 .0404127 -3.065 0.002 -.2031959 -.0445442 hhsize | 18.80239 3.083842 6.097 0.000 12.74914 24.85564 CH | -89.51655 28.22341 -3.172 0.002 -144.9161 -34.117 CHxe | .0000478 .0000172 2.771 0.006 .0000139 .0000816 CHxp | .1129281 .084609 1.335 0.182 -.0531504 .2790065 CHxs | 1.848796 .5355006 3.452 0.001 .7976657 2.899927 _cons | 294.9749 18.84356 15.654 0.000 257.987 331.9628 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ sigma_u | 94.457774 sigma_e | 137.78127 rho | .31972649 ( , u_i) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ F-/, u_i=0: F(3,811) = 45.80 Prob > F = 0.0000 76 8. 19 1: ? , , . , . ( ­ ). , . , , , . ­ . , , «» ( ), . : ESMAP 2000. . () () ( ). , , . , . ­ , . 70-75 , 80-90 . , , , 85 . ­ 90 . . , , , , . , . , , . . , - . , , . - . , . , (, ), . 19 ESMAP 2000, Gochenour 2001 Martinot 1997. 77 . , , ­ , 70-130ºC, . (, , ) . , (, , ). , , , . 1990- . (. 4) (. 2 ). . , , , , . , , ­ . , . , . , . , ; , , . , , , ­ . . 300 . , , , . . 1990 , . , . - ; . 1990 . . (, , ) . , 100 78 . ( ) ( 1 ) . . , , . - , , - . , . . , «» () , , . . . 20 : 73 , ­ 50 , ­ 80 , ­ 35 . , 1950- 1960- ., . ­ 1970- 1980- . ­ 9- 16- , . , , .20 20 (, , ) ( ), , , . . 79 2: : 1991 1999 . ­ , , ­ ; ; ­ , , , . 1991/92 1999 (%) 67 <5 (1994) -- (%) , 13,7 6,2 -55 (1999 US$/2) 63,8 68,6 7 (. 2) 0,27 0,22 -18 (/ 2) -- -- 22 , . . ( , ) () , , . ­ - , (, ). 55 ; , , . , . , , 78 1991 . 1997 . 1999 . ­ 1997 . 5,5 , 30 . ( .) 10 , ­ , , . , ( , , ) 20 40 . . , ; (, ) , , , . : World Bank 2000c , / : · . 1950-1975 ., 4 12 ; . 80 · . 1955 1970 ., 4 12 ; . · . 1960 . . 5 22 . (5- 9-) ; 22- , 1970- ., . 17- 22- . · . ; 2 4 . , , , ­ . (1984-87), ­ , . , 25-40 . , , , . , . , , , , ; , 40 . ­ , ( ). , , . , , . , , , . , , , . , , . , . , ( , ) , ; . , , , , . , , , ­ . 81 , , : , ; ; , ; ; ; . , , , . , , , . (, ) , , . : 1) ­ , ; 2) ­ . . . , , (. . ) , . , ( ) . . , , .21 1990- . , (. 4), . , , ­ , , . 50 70 (. ). , , , ( , ) 90 . 21 , JP-Building Engineering Ltd (2002), . 82 , 1990- . : Euroheat&Power (www.euroheat.org), , , . , , 1990- . . , . , , , , . . 1990- , (. 3), , . . (, ) . 83 3: , , , . 30 . , 66 (578.000) , . , () 1996 1998 . , , ­ 10 1996 . 26 1999 . 34 49 . , , , ; , , . ­ , ­ , / / (3), (3), . . (3) . . (3) . . (3) . . (3) «», , ­ ­ . , . , . , , . , , , . : , , , () , 25 . : Bulgaria 1999 84 85