62524 ROBUST GROWTH AMIDST I N F L AT I O N A RY C O N C E R N S Lao PDR Economic Monitor May 2011 - UPDATE THE WORLD BANK Lao PDR The World Bank Lao PDR Country Office Patouxay Nehru Road P.O Box 345 Vientiane, Lao PDR © All rights reserved This publication is a product of the staff of the World Bank. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed herein not necessarily reflect the views of the Executive Directors of the World Bank or the governments they repre- sent. “THE WORLD BANK TEAM APPRECIATES FEEDBACK ON STRUCTURE AND CONTENT OF THE MONITOR” For further information please contact World Bank Lao PDR Country Office. • Mr. Somneuk Davading on structure and content (sdavading@worldbank.org) • Ms. Keomanivone Phimmahasay on data issues (kphimmahasay@worldbank.org) The World Bank Lao PDR Country Office Patouxay Nehru Road P.O Box 345 Vientiane, Lao PDR Phone: (856-21) 450- 010 Fax: (856-21) 414-210 Lao PDR Economic Monitor - MAY 2011 ROBUST GROWTH AMIDST I N F L AT I O N A RY C O N C E R N S Lao PDR Economic Monitor M a y 2 0 11 - U P D AT E Lao PDR Economic Monitor - MAY 2011 UPDATE is issued in Lao and English by the World Bank Office in Lao PDR. This update reports on recent economic developments and medium-term outlook for the country as well as recent progress made by the Government in key reform areas. The paper was prepared by the World Bank Office’s macroeconomic policy team consisting of Somneuk Davading (Task Team Leader), Keomanivone Phimmahasay (Research Analyst) and Genevieve Boyreau (Senior Country Economist - reviewer) under the overall supervision of Mathew Verghis (Lead Economist for South-East Asia Region). We are grateful to the Government (especially BOL, MOF, MPI/LSB, MEM, MOIC, LNTA, MAF and other ministries), LNCCI (including key business associations) and other organizations for providing inputs. We would like to thank our World Bank colleagues: Richard Record, Konesawang Nghardsaysone, Saysanith Vongviengkham, Minh Van Nguyen, Shabih Mohib, Ratchada Anantavrasilpa for their inputs on reform agenda; Meriem Gray, Alounsavath Davong, Remy Rossi, Vattana Singharaj, Boualamphan Phouthavisouk, and other staff for design, printing and dissemination of the Monitor. 1 Executive Summary E XECUTIVE S UMMARY Lao PDR’s real GDP growth will remain robust in 2011 with projected growth of 8.6 percent compared to 8.4 percent in 2010. Natural resources and manufacturing sectors are expected to drive growth this year. The expected growth in the garment exports (by about 15-20 percent in this year) follows the EU relaxation in raw material sourcing requirement and increased orders by key garment producers. The service sector also shows signs of improvement, particu- larly in transport, tourism (hotels and restaurants) and retail trading. Agriculture (fishery, livestock and crops) is expected to benefit from the recent increase in regional demand and higher food prices. Out of 8.6 percent growth in 2011, about 3.6 percentage points come from the resource sectors, about 1 percentage point each from manufacturing and agriculture, 0.5 percentage points from construction and 2.5 percentage points from services. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) headline inflation has risen in recent months due to higher commodity prices. Recent global food prices have limited impact on Lao inflation, as domestic food prices follow global trends in a limited extent due to the subsistence nature of food production and relatively limited food exports. The recent rise in energy (fuel) and other nonfood prices is putting upward inflationary pressures on the country. The CPI inflation (yoy) has increased to about 7.7 percent in March 2011 from 5.8 percent in December 2010 driven largely by fuel. Fuel prices (yoy) climbed by 8.7 percent in March 2011 from 3.7 percent in December 2010 while core inflation (excluding food and energy) rose from 2.6 percent to 7.5 percent during the same period. By contrast, food inflation (especially locally-produced core food items, such as sticky rice, meat and vegetables) has declined during the last six months to 7.2 percent in March 2011 from 14.2 in September 2010 supported partly by Government’s inflationary control measures, such as increase in food supply to the local markets (using rice reserves), a stable exchange rate policy, and temporary ban on rice exports from the country as well as increase of the rice stockpile in 2011. Nevertheless, food prices in Lao PDR remain vulnerable to shocks, espe- cially natural disaster (flood and draught), animal disease outbreak and other seasonal factors. The annualized inflation is about 6 percent in 2010 and projected at around 7.0 percent in 2011. Higher copper and gold prices, combined with the withdrawal of quasi fiscal spending are pushing the fiscal deficit down this year. The budget deficit is expected to drop to 2.8 percent in FY10/11 from 5.7 percent of GDP in FY09/10 due to slow expansion of expenditure (for both current and capital spending) and projected higher revenue (especially resource tax revenues) as well as strong GDP growth. Domestic revenue is expected to increase to 14.4 percent of GDP in FY10/11 from 13.3 percent in FY09/10 following anticipated transfers of taxes, royalties and dividends from the resource sectors as a result of higher commodity prices. Thus, the resource revenue to GDP ratio is projected to climb significantly to 4.1 percent in this fiscal year from 2 percent in FY09/10. In the same time, the non-resource revenue to GDP ratio is likely to drop from 11.9 percent to 11.3 percent due to high GDP growth and slower expansion in non-resource revenue (about 10 percent growth in nominal terms). The non-mining as well as non-resource deficits are expected to increase slightly to 6.3 percent and 11 percent of GDP in this fiscal year from 6.2 percent and 10.9 percent in FY09/10, respec- tively. The total revenue (including grants) is expected to increase to 18.3 percent of GDP from 17.5 percent in FY09/10 driven by higher non-project grants (about 3.3 percent of GDP). Overall spending is expected to decline to 21.1 percent of GDP in FY10/11 from 22.3 percent in FY09/10. This is due to the phasing out of quasi-fiscal spending (domestically funded capital expenditure) and a decline in recurrent spending (due to the completion of major events, such as the South East Asia Games and the 450th Anniversary of the Vientiane Capital). The wage bill is expected to remain stable this fis- cal year while an increase (in nominal terms) for compensations and transfers is budgeted to support expansion of public services to remote areas, especially for social sectors. Lao export earnings are projected to soar in 2011 driven by higher commodity prices and increased regional demand. Lao exports grew rapidly by almost 43 percent (in nominal terms) in 2010 (boosting total merchandise exports to about $2 billion) and are projected to grow by nearly 30 percent in 2011 driven largely by resource exports (electricity and copper). Resource export growth (in nominal terms) is estimated at 59 percent in 2010 and about 32 percent in 2011 contributing to further increase in resource trade surplus in this year (to $1,224 million - or about 13.9 percent of GDP - from $915 million in 2010). Similarly, non-resource exports are expected to grow by 26 percent in 2011 (or to $732 mil- lion - about 8.3 percent of GDP - from $581 million in 2010). Imports rose by about 11 percent in 2010 and are expected to grow by 22 percent in 2011 driven by higher imports of capital and consumption goods as well as the rise in petrol prices (of which resource imports about $836 million - or around 9.5 percent of GDP - compared to $596 million in 2010). The Lao PDR Economic Monitor - MAY 2011 big increase in consumer imports is likely to widen non-resource trade deficit in 2011 (to $1,716 million - or 19.5 percent of GDP - from $1,517 million in 2010). Although overall trade balance is expected to improve the current account deficit is expected to widen slightly to about 9.4 percent of GDP in 2011 from about 8.6 percent in 2010 mainly on the account of larger transfers of profits and debt service payments abroad by large resource projects. Thus, resource current account surplus is expected to decrease to 4.8 percent of GDP in this year from about 5.5 percent in 2010. Non-resource current account deficit is expected to increase to $1,237 million in 2011 - or about 14.1 percent of GDP - from $1,056 million in 2010 driven by higher non-resource imports. The capital account surplus is projected to increase from 9.9 percent of GDP in 2010 to 12.1 percent in 2011 with a corresponding surge of new investment, especially from large resource mega projects such as the Hongsa Lignite power plant, the expansion of the Phubia Mining gold production facility, other small and medium-sized hydropower and other non-resource projects. As a result, resource capital account surplus is projected to rise to 8 percent of GDP in 2011 from 5.1 percent in 2010. In the same time, non-resource capital account surplus is likely to decrease to 4.2 percent of GDP in 2011 from 4.7 percent in 2010 due to high GDP growth. Overall balance was in surplus at 1.3 percent of GDP in 2010 and is expected to increase to 2.8 percent in 2011 due to strong resource account surplus (about 12.7 percent of GDP in this year compared to 10.7 percent in 2010). Net foreign assets (NFA) and foreign reserves picked up by the end of 2010 after continuous decline during the preceding two quarters. Foreign exchange reserves dropped sharply by 18 percent (yoy) in the third quarter, recorded at $531 million. Nevertheless, they started to bounce back in the fourth quarter following transfers of operational ex- penditures and taxes payments of foreign companies and equity investment in the 2 listed state-owned companies in the recently opened new stock exchange through IPOs denominated in Kip, thereby bringing in dollars in official reserves. As a result, foreign reserves reached more than $720 million by end-2010 (covering 3.1 months of imports of goods and services). Net foreign assets have followed a similar pattern with a rebound of more than 10 percent (quarter on quarter) in the fourth quarter. Reserves and NFA are expected to build up in coming months in 2011 along with stronger investment inflows and larger tax profits payments from mining projects. The Lao kip has appreciated slightly against the US dollar in the past few months while depreciating against the Thai baht. The kip has appreciated marginally by 0.2 percent against the US dollar during February-March but depreci- ated by 2.3 percent against baht in the same time. Overall, kip has appreciated by 0.9 percent against the US dollar and by 0.4 percent against baht during the last six months (October 2010 - March 2011). Credit growth has slowed by end-2010 due to the phasing out of the BOL’s direct lending to local government projects and increasing drying up of bank liquidity. The credit growth decelerated y-o-y to about 46 percent in De- cember 2010 from 91 percent in December 2009 due to significant slowdown in lending to both SOEs and private sector. Credit to SOEs declined mainly due to the phasing out of the Bank Of Laos’ (BOL) direct lending to local infrastructure activities while private credits slowed partly because of recent tightening of bank liquidity (the commercial banks’ loan to deposit ratio rose to about 75 percent in 2010 from 55 percent in 2008) as well as BOL’s guidance to slow rapid credit growth and reduce NPL risks. The GOL (BOL) is anticipating credit growth to stabilize at around 25-30 percent in 2011. Broad money (M2) grew fast (yoy) by 39.1 percent in 2010 and this trend is expected to continue in 2011, driven by strong GDP growth and high deposits (which grew by 43.3 percent in 2010). The dedollarisation rate increased to 46.2 percent in 2010 from 42.2 percent in 2009 as local people’s confidence in kip has risen notably in recent years. Structural reforms have been progressing on different fronts. The treasury reform continues to gain pace with good progress being achieved in consolidation of spending units’ accounts into the National Treasury and the launch of the pilot of Treasury zero-balance account at the BOL and its provincial branches. The Government has started implementation of the new public investment management mechanism, which includes allocation norms for the capital budget. The applica- tion of the formula has resulted in a public investment program PIP allocation more favorable to poorer provinces. With regard to regional and global integration, a Prime Minister’s decree on Import and Export of Goods, which will introduce “national treatment” and “most favored nation” principles into Lao Law, is expected to be signed by the Prime Minister in the near future (The decree has been reviewed and approved in principles by the GOL very recently). This decree is the last piece of requirement for WTO accession. The preparation of Trade Facilitation Strategy and Action Plan, which envisages improved coordination among concerned agencies and strengthened institutional set up for trade facilitation issues, has progressed well. 3 Lao PDR Economic Monitor - MAY 2011 TABLE OF CONTENTS EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 1 PART I – RECENT ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS 6 1.1 GROWTH AND INFLATION 6 1.2 GOVERNMENT’S REVENUE AND EXPENDITURE 8 1.3 EXTERNAL BALANCE 10 1.4 MONETARY SECTOR 12 PART II - STRUCTURAL AND POLICY REFORMS 14 2.1 PUBLIC EXPENDITURE POLICY AND MANAGEMENT REFORMS 14 2.2 FINANCIAL SECTOR REFORM 17 2.3 TRADE REFORM 18 2.4 PRIVATE SECTOR DEVELOPMENT 19 ANNEXES ANNEX 1 – LAO PDR AT A GLANCE TABLE 21 ANNEX 2 – GLOBAL ECONOMIC OUTLOOK 22 ANNEX 3 - ACRONYMS AND ABBREVIATIONS 23 FIGURES AND TABLES Figure 1. Growth and Inflation, (percent change) 6 Figure 2. Resource Sectors Contribution to GDP Growth, (percentage points) 6 Figure 3. Real GDP Growth: Contribution by Sector (percentage points) 7 Figure 4. Monthly CPI Inflation (yoy percent change) 7 Figure 5. Food Prices (yoy percent change) 7 Figure 6. Lao Glutinous Rice Price vs Thai 8 Figure 7. Domestic Revenues (percent of GDP), FY08-12 8 Figure 8. Resource Revenues (percent of GDP), FY08-12 9 Figure 9. Key Government Expenditures (percent of GDP), FY2008-12 9 Figure 10. GOL’s Fiscal Performance (percent of GDP), FY2008-12 9 Figure 11. Exports by Sector (US$ m), 2007-12 10 Figure 12. Current Account Balance - CAB (percent of GDP), 2007-2012 11 Figure 13. Balance of Payments (percent of GDP), 2007-12 11 Figure 14. FDI in Lao PDR (US$ million), 2007-12 11 Figure 15. Kip Exchange Rate (Index Dec-2006 =100) 12 Figure 16. Nominal and Real Effective Exchange Rates 12 Figure 17. NFA and foreign reserves have rebounded 13 Figure 18. Credit growth has declined by end-2010 13 Figure 19. Contribution to Annual Bank Credit Growth 13 Figure 20. Monetary sector growth (yoy percent change) 13 Figure 21. Bank Lending (percent of GDP) 13 Table 1. GOL’s four priority sectors expenditures 17 Note: all dollar figures are in US dollars unless otherwise indicated. 5 Recent Economic Developments PART I RECENT ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS 1.1 GROWTH AND INFLATION Lao PDR’s real GDP growth will remain robust in 2011 with projected growth of 8.6 percent compared to 8.4 percent in 2010. Natural resources1 and manufacturing sectors2 are expected to drive growth this year. The expected growth in the garment exports (by about 15-20 percent in this year) is due to the EU relaxation in raw material sourcing requirement and increased orders by key garment producers. The service sector also shows signs of improvement, particularly the transport and tourism sectors (hotels and restaurants) and retail trading. Agriculture (fishery, livestock and crops) is expected to benefit from the recent increase in regional demand and higher food prices. Out of 8.6 percent growth in 2011, about 3.6 percentage points come from the resource sectors 3, about 1 percentage point each from manufacturing and agriculture, 0.5 percentage points from construction and 2.5 percentage points from services. With gradual recovery of the global economy and dynamic regional demand, Lao PDR’s economic outlook continue to be encouraging, with the economy projected to grow over the coming years on average at about 8 percent a year. This projection assumes sustained levels of global commodity prices (mainly metals and agriculture) as well as a good recovery in tourism and garment industries, implementation of large hydropower projects under construction and in the pipeline (especially Hongsa Lignite Power Plant), dynamic demand for main Lao export prod- ucts from the neighboring countries (especially Thailand, China and Vietnam) and the European Union, and full operations of new large hydropower projects, such as NT2, Nam Ngum 2 and Nam Like 1-2 in 2011 and onwards. Further expansion of mining output is assumed for copper and gold in 2011-12 (by MMG and Phubia). FFig 11. Growth and Inflation, (percent change) Figure igure FFig 22. Resource Sectors Contribution to Figure igure GDP Growth, (percentage points) Real GDP growth (%) Nonresource sectors (percentage points) Headline inflation (%, annual average) Resources (percentage points) Real GDP growth (%) 10 10 8.5 8.4 8.6 8.4 8.6 7.5 7.5 7.6 7.5 7.5 7.6 8 7.2 8 7.2 7.6 6 6.9 7.0 6 4.6 5.0 6.5 5.0 5.3 6.0 5.6 4 4 7.6 4.5 2 2 3.9 3.6 0.1 2.0 2.5 2.3 0 0 -0.4 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 -2 Source: GOL (MPI) and staff estimates and projections. Source: GOL (MPI) and staff estimates and projections. * Yearly average for 2011 * Yearly average for 2011-15 1 Hydropower (with full operation of NT2, new operations of Nam Ngum 2 and Nam Lik 1-2) and sustained mining extraction (copper and gold output expansion by MMG and Phubia projects). 2 Based on steady growth in cement and construction materials, as well as the garment and food and beverage industries. 3 Almost 3 percentage points come from the electricity sector (out of which around 1.3 percentage points come from NT2 and the rest from Nam Ngum 2 and Nam Lik 1-2). About 0.6 percentage points come from the mining sector - mostly copper and gold. Lao PDR Economic Monitor - MAY 2011 FFig 33. Real GDP Growth: Contribution by Sector (percentage points) Figure igure 10 8 Agriculture and forestry 6 Mining and quarrying Manufacturing 4 Construction Electricity, gas, and water 2 Services 0 Real GDP growth (percent) -2 Source: Staff estimates and projections Although until now recent global food price in- creases have had limited impacts on overall Lao F 44. Monthly Inflation (yoy percent change) Figure 4. Monthly Inflation (yoy percent change) Fig Figure igure CPI inflation, the rise in fuel and other nonfood Energy inflation (percentage points) prices and uncertainty in global commodity Food inflation Energy (percentage inflation points) (percentage points) Core inflation Food (percentage inflation points) (percentage points) markets is putting upward pressures on the CPI Headline (%, annual points) inflation(percentage Core inflation average) inflation. The headline inflation has increased in re- Headline inflation (%, annual average) 10 cent months due to energy and other nonfood com- 8.0 8.1 8.0 8.1 7.9 8 10 6.8 6.7 modity prices. The CPI inflation (yoy) has increased 7.9 5.8 6.8 6 8 6.7 4.8 4.9 4.7 4.9 4.9 4.8 4.8 4.8 4.2 4.7 in recent months to about 7.7 percent in March 2011 3.2 5.8 3.9 4.2 3.9 2.4 4.9 4 6 3.2 1.6 from 5.8 percent in December 2010 driven largely 2.4 0.7 1.6 1.5 -0.2 by fuel and other nonfood prices. Fuel prices (yoy) 2 4 0.7 -1.8 -0.1 -1.8 -1.5 1.5 -1.6 -0.2 -2.3 -1.8 -1.6-1.8 -2.3 climbed by 8.7 percent in March 2011 from 3.7 per- 0 2 -0.1 -1.5 cent in December 2010 while core inflation (excluding -2 0 food and energy) rose from 2.6 percent to 7.5 percent -4 -2 during the same period. However, the food inflation -4 Aug-09 Aug-10 Mar-09 Mar-11 Dec-08 Dec-09 Dec-10 Apr-10 Feb-10 Oct-09 Oct-10 Jun-09 Jun-10 (especially locally-produced core food items, such as Aug-09 Aug-10 Mar-09 Mar-11 Dec-08 Dec-09 Dec-10 Apr-10 Feb-10 Oct-09 Oct-10 Jun-09 Jun-10 sticky rice, meat and vegetables) has declined during the last six months to 7.2 percent in March 2011 from Source: Lao PDR authorities (MPI) and staff calculations. 14.2 in September 2010 supported by Government’s Source: Lao PDR authorities (MPI) and staff calculations. inflationary control measures, such as increase in food supply to the local markets (using rice reserves), a stable exchange rate policy, and temporary ban on rice FF 55. Food Prices (yoy percent change) Figure igure exports from the country as well as increase of the rice Rice Vegetables stockpile in 2011. Nevertheless, food prices in Lao 14.2 16 Meat 14.0 13.2 Poultry PDR remain vulnerable to shocks, especially natural 14 Fish 11.1 11.0 disaster (flood and draught), animal disease outbreak 12 The rest 10.0 Total food inflation (%, y-o-y) and other seasonal factors. The annualized inflation is 8.8 8.6 10 about 6 percent in 2010 and projected at around 7.0 6.8 8 6.0 percent in 2011. 5.0 4.7 6 4.3 4.3 4.0 3.4 2.9 2.7 4 Food prices in Lao PDR follow to a limited extent 0.5 1.3 0.9 0.0 0.4 2 -2.0 the global trend due to the subsistence and limited -2.7 0 tradable nature of food consumption. However, -2 they may be linked to regional markets for glutinous -4 rice in Thailand and Northern Viet Nam. Commercial- Feb-09 Feb-10 Dec-09 Oct-10 Dec-10 Dec-08 Oct-09 Apr-09 Jun-09 Apr-10 Jun-10 Aug-09 Aug-10 ized rice (especially sticky rice which is predominant food in Lao PDR) is influenced by localized supply shocks and seasonality. Unlike Thailand and Vietnam Source: Lao PDR authorities (MPI) and staff calculations. 7 Recent Economic Developments who produce and exports mainly ordinary (non-glutinous) rice to the international markets, Lao PDR produces mostly glutinous (sticky) rice around 90 percent of total rice outputs, which are mostly consumed domestically. Estimates suggest that about 10 percent or 300,000 metric tons is commercialized, some of which may be exported to regional markets in neighboring countries. Anecdotal evidence shows increased formal and informal milled glutinous rice exports to Vietnam, and to a lesser extend exports of paddy to Thailand may have been behind the stark increase of rice prices over the 2nd quarter of 2010. Government reacted by restricting formal; cross-border rice exports, has issued a stockpiling policy, and is considering imposing price controls. It remains unclear how price controls can be effectively implemented at the provincial and district level. FFig 66. Lao Glutinous Rice Price vs Thai Figure igure Glutinous Rice Price Index (Dec2005=100) Thai glutinous rice 10% (export price, fob) Lao glutinous rice, grade 1(domestic price) 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 Jun-09 Jun-10 Jun-06 Jun-07 Jun-08 Mar-08 Mar-09 Mar-10 Mar-06 Mar-07 Sep-10 Sep-07 Sep-08 Sep-09 Sep-06 Dec-07 Dec-08 Dec-09 Dec-10 Dec-05 Dec-06 Source: Lao authorities (DOS) and Thai Rice Exporters Association and staff calculations. 1.2 GOVERNMENT’S REVENUE AND EXPENDITURE The budget deficit (as percentage of GDP) declined further in last fiscal year (FY09/10). The fiscal deficit de- creased to 4.6 percent of GDP (2.7 percent came from the off-budget spending) in FY09/10, from 6.7 percent in FY08/09. The GoL’s domestic revenue increased by 17.2 percent (in nominal terms) in FY09/10 due to higher tax col- lection, especially from VAT, resource royalties and customs duties. Nevertheless, the revenue to GDP ratio climbed only slightly to 13.9 percent in FY09/10 compared to 13.8 percent in F08/09 due to the rapid GDP growth - see Figures 7-10. High commodity prices and the withdrawal of one-off spending items will positively impact the Government fiscal balance this year. The budget deficit is expected to drop to 2.8 percent in FY10/11 from 4.6 percent of GDP in FY09/10 due to slow expansion of expenditure (for both current and capital spending in nominal terms) and higher revenue (especially resource tax revenues) as well as strong GDP growth, and is projected to remain below 3 percent over the medium term - see Figure 10. Domestic revenue is expected to increase to 15.1 percent of GDP in FY10/11 from 13.9 percent in FY09/10 following transfers of taxes, royalties and dividends from the resource sectors as a result of higher commodity prices and copper output expansion (around $270 million projected resource revenues including $220 million from mining taxes in this FY and much higher in the medium term). Thus, the resource revenue to GDP ratio is projected to climb significantly to 4.1 percent in this fiscal year from 2 percent in FY09/10. In the same time, the non-resource revenue to GDP ratio is likely to drop from 11.9 percent to 11.3 percent due to high GDP growth and slower expansion in non-resource revenue collection (about 10 percent growth in nominal terms) - see Figure 8. The non-mining as well as non-resource deficits are expected to increase slightly by 0.1 percent of GDP, or to 6.3 percent and 11 percent of GDP in this fiscal year from 6.2 percent and 10.9 percent in FY09/10, respectively. The total revenue (including grants) is expected to increase to 19.2 percent of GDP from 18.2 percent in FY09/10 driven by higher non- project grants (about 3.3 percent of GDP) - see Figure 7. Overall spending is expected to decline to 22 percent of GDP in FY10/11 from 22.7 percent in FY09/10 - see Figure 9. This is due to the phasing out of quasi-fiscal spending (domes- tically funded capital expenditure) and a relative decline in recurrent spending (due to the completion of major events, Lao PDR Economic Monitor - MAY 2011 such as the South East Asia Games and the 450th Anniversary of the Vientiane Capital). The wage bill is expected to remain stable this fiscal year while an increase (in nominal terms) for compensations and transfers is budgeted to support expansion of public services to remote areas, especially for social sectors. FFig 77. Domestic Revenues (percent of Figure igure GDP) F 8 Figure 8. Resource Revenues (percent of GDP), Fig igure FY08-12 Nonresource revenue Resource revenue Revenue and grants Domestic revenue Tax Resource revenue Mining Hydropower Nontax 25 14 11.9 11.1 11.0 10.8 19.2 19.1 12 18.1 20 15.9 15.3 9.7 15.2 15.1 10 13.9 13.9 13.8 13.4 13.5 15 12.5 12.2 12.1 8 5.5 10 6 4.1 5.5 4.6 4.1 3.1 3.5 3.1 4 2.7 2.7 5 2.0 1.8 1.8 1.7 2.0 1.6 1.4 2.4 2.2 1.6 2 0.9 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 0 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 0 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 Source: Lao PDR authorities (MOF) and staff calculations and Source: Lao PDR authorities (MOF) and staff calculations projections and projections. FFig 99. Key Government Expenditures Figure igure (percent of GDP), FY2008-12 (per F 10 Fig Figure 10. GOL’s Fiscal Performance (percent of igure GDP), FY2008-12 Current expenditure Capital expenditure Revenue and grants Total expenditurte Others/contingencies Expenditurte Budget deficit Nonmining deficit Nonresource deficit 25 22.6 22.7 22.0 21.6 22.7 18.1 22.6 22.3 22.1 20 25 19.5 19.6 18.1 9.8 18.2 10.9 9.5 9.5 20 15.9 15 13.4 9.9 15 10 11.8 11.6 10.9 10 10.7 5 7.0 5 0 0 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 -5 -2.5 -2.7 -2.8 -4.6 -10 -6.7 -5.1 -7.3 -6.2 -6.3 -7.1 Source: Lao PDR authorities (MOF) and staff calculations and -8.9 -10.9 -11.0 -11.4 -15 -11.8 projections. FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 Source: Lao PDR authorities (MOF) and staff calculations and projections. 1.3 EXTERNAL BALANCE Lao Exports and Imports Lao export earnings are projected to soar in 2011 driven by higher commodity prices and strong regional demand. Lao exports grew rapidly by almost 43 percent (in nominal terms) in 2010 (boosting total merchandise ex- ports to about $2 billion) supported by increased regional demand, the operational start of new hydropower projects, and favorable commodity prices (especially for minerals). They are projected to grow by nearly 30 percent in 2011 driven largely by resource exports (electricity and copper). Resource export growth (in nominal terms) is estimated at 59 percent in 2010 and about 32 percent in 2011. Thus, resource trade surplus is likely to rise to about $1,224 mil- lion in this year (or about 13.9 percent of GDP) compared to $915 million in 2010. Similarly, non-resource exports are expected to grow by 26 percent in 2011 (or to $732 million - about 8.3 percent of GDP - from $581 million in 2010). 9 Recent Economic Developments Imports are also expected to rise at a quicker pace in 2011. Imports rose by about 11 percent in 2010 and are expected to grow by 22 percent in 2011 driven by higher imports of capital and consumption goods as well as the rise in petrol prices. The large increase in consumer imports (due to increase in demand and commodity prices) is likely to widen non-resource trade deficit in 2011 (to about $1,716 million - or around 19.5 percent of GDP - from $1,517 million in 2010). The commencement of construction of the Hongsa Lignite power plant and the expansion of the Phu- bia Mining gold production facility are expected to significantly contribute to import rise in 2011. Overall, Lao PDR’s trade deficit has narrowed in recent years (from about $1,033 million in 2008 to $602 million in 2010 and is projected to decline further to $492 million in 2011) due to strong resource export growth (which is expected to outweigh import expansion). F 11 Figure 11. Exports by Sector (US$ m), 2007-12 igure World Commodity Prices, 2002-15 Mining Electricity Copper Gold Coffee Wood & Wood Products Garments Maize Rubber Rice Agriculture Other 3000 600 2500 500 2000 400 1500 300 1000 200 500 100 0 0 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Source: Staff estimates and projections based on data from Lao authorities (MOIC) and partner countries Source: WB DECDG’s recent estimates and projections. Current Account Balance The current account deficit has become increasingly exposed to mining export earnings, thereby offsetting a large non-resource current account deficit. The current account deficit is projected to widen slightly due to larger net income transfer in 2011. Although the overall trade balance is expected to improve slightly, the current account deficit is projected to widen to about 9.4 percent in 2011 from about 8.6 percent in 2010 mainly on the account of larger transfers of profits and debt service payments abroad by large resource projects - see Figure 12. Resource current account surplus is expected 4 to decrease to 4.8 percent of GDP in 2011 from about 5.5 percent in 2010 due to notable increase in net income transfers abroad (especially debt services from power projects including Hongsa Lignite Power Plant). Mining current account surplus is expected 5 to rise to 9.7 percent of GDP in 2011 from about 9.1 percent in 2010 and, in the same time, power sec- tor’s current account deficit is likely to6 widen in 2011 and 2012 (due to large increase in interest payments). Non-resource current account deficit is expected to increase to $1,237 million in this year from $1,056 million in 2010 driven by higher non-resource imports. Nevertheless, its GDP ratio remains unchanged at 14.1 percent in 2010-2011 - see Figure 12 below. F 12 igure Figure 12. Current Account Balance - CAB Fig (percent of GDP), 2007-2012 ( Mining CAB Power CAB 20 Non-resource CAB Current account balance (CAB) 10 3.3 9.5 9.4 9.2 5.1 8.3 0 -8.8 -3.6 -4.8 -6.6 -10.6 -11.9 -11.8 -11.9 -12.2 -14.1 -14.1 -14.2 -10 -8.6 -9.4 -10.6 -13.6 -20 -19.2 -18.7 -30 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Source: Staff estimates and projections Lao PDR Economic Monitor - MAY 2011 Capital Account Balance The commencement of resource sector investment in pipeline will enhance capital account surplus in 2011. The net flow of capitals declined to 9.8 percent in 2010 from 12.3 percent of GDP in 2009 due to a temporary plunge in foreign investments in the resource sectors (especially hydropower - see Figure 13) and a large increase in income transfers by resource projects (repatriation of profits of around $384 million compared to about $105 million in 2009). However, the capital account surplus is expected to rebound to 12.2 percent in 2011 with a corresponding surge of new investment especially from large resource mega projects such as Hongsa lignite coal-fired power plant ($3.7 billion project), Phubia’s new gold production facility (about $150 million) and several other medium and smaller investment projects across non-resource sectors (especially construction and services) - see Figure 14. As a result, resource capital account surplus is projected to rise to 8 percent of GDP in 2011 from 5.1 percent in 2010. In the same time, non-resource capital account surplus is likely to decrease to 4.2 percent of GDP in 2011 from 4.7 percent in 2010 due to high GDP growth. Overall balance was in surplus at 1.3 percent of GDP in 2010 and is expected to increase to 2.8 percent in 2011 due to strong resource account surplus (about 12.7 percent of GDP in this year compared to 10.7 percent in 2010). F 13 Figure 13. Balance of Payments (percent of GDP), igure Fig Figure 13. Balance of Payments (percent of GDP), 2007-12 2007-12 F 14 igure Figure 14. FDI in Lao PDR, 2007-12 (US$ million) Figure 14. FDI in Lao PDR, 2007-12 (US$ million) Agriculture Manufacturing, etc. Mining CAB Power CAB Services Agriculture Mining Manufacturing, etc. CAB MiningCAB Non-resource CAB Power CAB Power Services Gross FDI inflows Mining OverallNon-resource balance CAB CapitalCAB account balance Overall balance Capital account balance Net FDI flows Power Gross FDI inflows 30 Net FDI flows 3023.9 1400 1300 23.9 20.6 20 20.6 1400 1103 1300 20 12.3 12.3 1200 12.1 1103 12.3 9.8 12.3 12.1 1200 976 10 4.7 9.8 1000 838 976 10 4.7 1.9 1.3 2.9 1.5 1000 774 761 1.9 -1.3 1.3 2.9 838 0 -1.3 1.5 800 774 761 0 800 -10 600 -10 -8.6 -9.4 600 -8.6 -10.6 400 -20 -13.6 -9.4 -10.6 -20 -19.2 -18.7 -13.6 400 -18.7 200 -30 -19.2 200 -30 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 0 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 0 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Source: BOL and staff estimates and projections. Source: BOL and staff estimates and projections. Source: MPI and staff estimates and projections. Source: MPI and staff estimates and projections. 1.4 MONETARY SECTOR Exchange Rate The Lao kip has appreciated slightly against the US dollar in the past few months while depreciating against the Thai baht. The kip has appreciated marginally by 0.2 percent against the US dollar during the last two months (February-March) but depreciated by 2.3 percent against the Thai baht in the same time. Overall, kip has appreci- ated by 0.9 percent against the US dollar and by 0.4 percent against baht during the last six months (October 2010 - March 2011). Nevertheless, the effective exchange rate of kip depreciated by 1.5 percent in nominal terms (NEER) and 1.4 percent in real terms (REER) during October 2010 - March 2011 largely due to recent depreciation of US dollar against major currencies in the region (including the Thai baht). 4 Resource current account surplus covers trade balance and net income from the mining and hydropower sectors. 5 The surplus in mining trade balance has off-set the transfers of profits and debt service payments abroad and thereby contributed to mining current account surplus. 6 Deficits on the sector’s trade balance and net income contributed to power sector’s current account deficit. 11 Recent Economic Developments Net foreign assets and foreign reserves picked up by the end of 2010 after continuous decline during the preceding two quarters. Foreign exchange reserves dropped sharply by 18 percent (yoy) in the third quarter, recorded at $531 million. Reserves started to bounce back in the fourth quarter following transfers of operational expenditures and taxes payments of foreign companies and new foreign investments. Foreign reserves reached more than $720 million by end-2010 (covering 3.1 months of imports of goods and services). Net foreign assets have also followed a similar pattern with a rebound of 13.5 percent (yoy) by end-2010, reaching more than $750 million. The slowing down of credit growth as of end 2010 has eased the pressure on foreign reserves and NFA levels. The net for- eign assets (NFA) and international reserves are expected to rise in 2011 and beyond with a projected strong growth in exports and rebound in net capital inflows combined with anticipated further slowdown in credit growth in 2011 (see more details in Bank Lending below). F 15 Figure 15 . Kip Exchange Figure Fig igure Figure 15 . 15 Rate Kip Figure 15 . Kip Exchange Rate (Index Dec-2006 =100) (Index . Kip Exchange Exchange Dec-2006 RateRate (Index =100) (Index Kip/US$ Dec-2006Figure =100) Dec-2006 16. =100) Kip/Baht Figure Figure igure Nominal and Real Nominal F 16 Figure 16. 16. 16. Nominal and Real Effective Exchange Rates Effective Nominal Exchange andand Real Real Rates Effective Effective Exchange NEER Rates Exchange Rates REER Kip/US$ Kip/Baht Kip/US$ Kip/US$ Kip/Baht Kip/Baht NEER REER NEER NEER REER REER 110 130 10 110 110 130 130 130 125 105 125 125 125 120 05 105 105 100 120 120 120 115 00 100 100 115 115 115 110 95 95 110 110 110 105 95 95 90 105 100 105 105 90 90 90 100 100 100 95 85 85 95 95 95 90 85 85 80 90 Mar-07 Sep-07 Mar-08 Sep-08 Mar-09 Sep-09 Mar-10 Sep-10 Mar-11 Dec-06 Dec-07 Jun-07 Dec-08 Jun-08 Dec-09 Jun-09 Dec-10 Jun-10 90 90 80 Sep-07 Sep-08 Sep-09 Sep-10 Mar-07 Mar-08 Mar-09 Mar-10 Mar-11 Dec-06 Dec-07 Dec-08 Dec-09 Dec-10 Jun-07 Jun-08 Jun-09 Jun-10 Mar-07 Sep-07 Mar-08 Sep-08 Mar-09 Sep-09 Mar-10 Mar-11 Dec-06 Sep-10 Dec-07 Jun-07 Dec-08 Jun-08 Dec-09 Jun-09 Dec-10 Jun-10 80 80 Mar-07 Mar-07 Sep-07 Sep-07 Mar-08 Mar-08 Sep-08 Sep-08 Mar-09 Mar-09 Sep-09 Sep-09 Mar-10 Mar-10 Sep-10 Sep-10 Mar-11 Mar-11 Dec-06 Dec-06 Dec-07 Dec-07 Jun-07 Jun-07 Dec-08 Dec-08 Jun-08 Jun-08 Dec-09 Dec-09 Jun-09 Jun-09 Dec-10 Dec-10 Jun-10 Jun-10 Sep-07 Sep-08 Sep-09 Sep-10 Mar-07 Mar-08 Mar-09 Mar-10 Mar-11 Dec-06 Dec-07 Dec-08 Dec-09 Dec-10 Jun-07 Jun-08 Jun-09 Jun-10 Sep-07 Sep-07 Sep-08 Sep-08 Sep-09 Sep-09 Sep-10 Sep-10 Mar-07 Mar-07 Mar-08 Mar-08 Mar-09 Mar-09 Mar-10 Mar-10 Mar-11 Mar-11 Dec-06 Dec-06 Dec-07 Dec-07 Dec-08 Dec-08 Dec-09 Dec-09 Dec-10 Dec-10 Jun-07 Jun-07 Jun-08 Jun-08 Jun-09 Jun-09 Jun-10 Jun-10 Source: BOL and staff calculations. Source: IMF Source: BOL and staff calculations. Source: Source: BOLBOL and staff and staff calculations. calculations. Source: IMF Source: Source: IMF IMF F 17Figure 17. NFA and foreign reserves have rebounded igure Broad money (yoy % change, left axis) (Q-to-Q percent change) Credit to the economy (yoy percent change, left axis) Gross official reserves (US$ m, right axis) International reserves Net foreign assets Net Foreign assets (US$ m) 45 125 1200 35 100 1000 25 75 800 15 50 600 5 25 400 0 200 -5 -25 0 -15 Jun-08 Jun-09 Jun-10 Sep-08 Dec-08 Sep-09 Dec-09 Sep-10 Dec-10 Mar-09 Mar-10 Sep-07 Sep-08 Sep-09 Sep-10 Mar-07 Mar-08 Mar-09 Mar-10 Dec-06 Dec-07 Dec-08 Dec-09 Dec-10 Jun-07 Jun-08 Jun-09 Jun-10 Source: BOL and staff calculations. Bank Lending Credit growth has slowed by end-2010 due to the phasing out of the BOL’s direct lending to local government projects and the slowdown of private credit. The credit growth decelerated y-o-y to about 46 percent in December 2010 from 91 percent in December 2009 due to significant slowdown in lending to both SOEs and private sector. Credit to SOEs declined mainly on the account of the phasing out of BOL’s direct lending to projects while private credits slowed partly because of recent tightening of bank liquidity (the commercial banks’ loan to deposit ratio rose to about 75 percent in 2010 from 73 percent in 2009 and 55 percent in 2008) and GOL’s policy to slow rapid credit and Lao PDR Economic Monitor - MAY 2011 reduce future NPL risks. Private credit growth slowed to 43.8 percent in December 2010 from 88 percent in end- 2009 while credit to SOEs dropped to 53.4 percent from 99.8 percent at end-2009. The GOL (BOL) is projecting credit growth to stabilize to about 25-30 percent in 2011. Broad money (M2) grew fast (yoy) by 39.1 percent in 2010 (compared to 31 percent in 2009) and this trend is expected to continue in 2011, driven by strong GDP growth (8.4 percent in 2010 and projected 8.6 percent in 2011) and high deposits (which grew by 43.3 percent in 2010 and projected 30-40 percent in this year). Overall, kip deposits increased (yoy) by 57 percent while foreign currency deposits climbed by 33.2 percent in 2010. The dedollarisation 7 rate increased to 46.2 percent in 2010 from 42.2 percent in 2009. As percent of GDP, total credit was 25.9 percent, M2 about 33.7 percent and deposits around 27.6 percent in 2010. The reported non-performing loans (by BOL) dropped from 3.7 percent in June 2010 to about 3 percent in end-2010. It is not clear however whether this improvement is due to enhanced loan portfolios of banks or a mechanic impact from new loans expansion. F 18 Figure 18. Credit growth has declined by end-2010 igure Figure 19. Contribution to Annual Bank Credit igure Growth F 19 (yoy percent change) t growth has declined by end-2010 Figure 19. Figure Credit growth 18. Contribution Annual tohas declined Bankby end-2010 Credit Figure Credit to private sector (percentage 19. Contribution to An points) Credit to private sector Credit to SOEs Credit to SOEs (percentage points) Deposits Credit to the economy Growth Credit to the economy (yoy percent change) Growth (yoy percent change) (yoy percent change) 200 Credit to SOEs Credit to private sector (percentage points) 120 Credit to private sector to private sector Credit private to to Credit SOEs sector (percentage Credit to SOEs 98 92 ts 100points) 85 83 91 85 Credit to SOEs (percent 150 Credit to the economy Deposits Credit to the economy (yoy Credit 80percent to the economy change) 63 51 66 63 59 Credit to the economy ( 200 120 6092 98 120 46 100 100 85 83 40 91 85 21 100 85 83 80 150 63 66 20 63 59 80 63 66 50 60 51 0 46 60 51 40 100 21 -20 -9 -16 -16 -1 40 21 0 20 -40 20 050 0 Mar-10Mar-07 Sep-10Sep-07 Mar-08 Sep-08 Mar-09 Sep-09 Mar-10 Sep-10 Dec-09Dec-06 Sep-10 Dec-07 Dec-08 Dec-09 Dec-10 Jun-10 Jun-07 Jun-08 Jun-09 Jun-10 Sep-08 Sep-09 Sep-10 Dec-08 Mar-09 Dec-09 Mar-10 Dec-08Dec-10 Jun-08 Jun-09 Jun-10 -20 -9 -16 -16 -1 -20 -9 -16 -16 -1 -40 0 -40 Mar-07 Sep-07 Mar-08 Sep-08 Mar-09 Sep-09 Mar-07 Sep-07 Mar-08 Sep-08 Mar-09 Dec-06 Dec-07 Dec-08 Dec-10 Dec-06 Dec-07 Dec-08 Jun-07 Jun-08 Jun-09 Jun-07 Jun-08 Sep-09 Sep-10 Sep-08 Sep-09 Mar-09 Dec-09 Mar-10 Dec-10 Mar-09 Dec-09 Mar-10 Dec-10 Jun-09 Jun-10 Jun-08 Jun-09 Jun-10 Source: BOL and staff calculations. Source: BOL and staff calculations. Source: BOL and staff calculations. Figure igure 20. 20. Figure Monetary Monetary percent dit growth has declined by end-2010 F 20 sector sector percent change) growth growth change) (yoy Figure Figure 19. (yoy 18. Contribution Credit growth Figure Figure igure Annual tohas 21. 21. declined Bank Bank by Bank end-2010 Credit Lending Lending (percent (percent of GDP) of GDP) Figure 19. Contribution to A F 21 Credit Credit the economy to economy to the (% (% of of GDP) GDP) Growth Total Total deposits deposits (% (% of of GDP) GDP) Growth (yoy percent change) (yoy percent change) Broad Broad money money (M2), (M2), (% (% of of GDP) GDP) Total Total deposits deposits Broad Broad money money (M2) (M2) Credit to private sector (percentage points) Credit to private secto it to private sector Credit to SOEs Credit to to Credit private SOEs sector Credit (percentage points) to Loan/deposit ratioratio Loan/deposit SOEs (%, (%, right right axis) axis) Credit to SOEs (perce sits Credit to the economy Deposits Credit Credit to the economy (yoy percent to the economy change) 74.5 74.5 Credit to the economy 40 40 73.0 73.0 80 80 43.3 43.3 50 50 200 120 120 35 35 39.1 39.1 98 92 91 38.7 38.7 100 85 100 36.5 36.5 85 83 85 83 80 55.2 55.2 80 40 40 150 63 66 30 30 52.5 52.5 63 59 60 60 63 66 31.3 31.3 30.1 30.1 29.5 29.5 51 51 60 46 60 25 25 26.1 26.1 40 100 37.9 37.9 40 22.7 22.7 30 30 22.5 22.5 22.5 22.5 21 21 21.6 21.6 20 20 20 20 40 40 18.3 18.3 17.7 17.7 050 0 34.1 34.1 20 20 15 15 29.2 29.2 -20 -9 -20 -9 -16 28.0 28.0 26.3 26.3 -1 -1 24.1 24.1 12.2 23.9 23.9 -16 -16 -16 23.3 23.3 -40 0 -40 21.5 21.5 10 10 20 20 19.8 19.8 19.4 19.4 19.4 19.4 10 10 13.1 13.1 12.2 Mar-07 Sep-07 Mar-08 Sep-08 Mar-09 Sep-09 Mar-10 Sep-10 Mar-07 Sep-07 Mar-08 Sep-08 Dec-06 Dec-07 Dec-08 Dec-09 Dec-10 Dec-06 Dec-07 Dec-08 Jun-07 Jun-08 Jun-09 Jun-10 Jun-07 Jun-08 5 5 Sep-09 Sep-10 Sep-08 Sep-09 Sep-10 Dec-08 Mar-09 Dec-09 Mar-10 Dec-10 Dec-08 Mar-09 Dec-09 Mar-10 Dec-10 Jun-09 Jun-10 Jun-08 Jun-09 Jun-10 7.4 7.7 7.4 7.7 0 0 0 0 0 0 2006 20082009 20072008 20062007 20102011 20092010 20112012 2012 20062006 2007 2007 2008 2008 2009 2009 20102010 Source: Source: BOL and staff calculations. Source: BOL and and BOL staffstaff calculations. calculations. Source: BOL and staff calculations. 7 In the context of Lao PDR, dedollarisation rate is the ratio of kip deposit to the total deposit (This simple formula is used by BOL as a proxy for estimating the dedollarisation rate in the country due to data limitation on composition of kip and foreign currencies outside bank). 13 Structural and Policy Reforms PART II STRUCTURAL AND POLICY REFORMS 2.1 PUBLIC EXPENDITURE POLICY AND MANAGEMENT REFORMS Public finance management reforms continue to be implemented within the overall umbrella of the Public Finance Management Strengthening Program (PFMSP). Since 2008, PFMSP has covered reforms on both the revenue and expenditure sides as mandated by the Budget Law 2007. There has been progress in the develop- ment of a new fiscal transfer system, establishment of greater control of public finance resources, alignment of policies to the budget, and strengthening of external oversight and audit functions. The centralization of the Treasury, Customs, and Tax functions mandated by the revised 2006 State Budget Law was completed by the end of 2009. To facilitate budget execution and reporting, the MOF has developed the GFIS and progres- sively rolled it out to central ministries/agencies and provinces. Efforts have been made to improve the budget coverage, through bringing off-budget funds and service delivery agencies’ technical revenue on budget. A treasury single account (TSA) framework has been developed with a phased implementation approach. On the revenue side, VAT has been brought into implementation since January 2010 and ASYCUDA implementation has commenced since July 2010. The new Audit Law was promulgated by the national assembly (NA) in July 2007, allowing the State Audit Organization (SAO) to directly report to the NA instead of the Executive branch of Government; SAO has performed the audit of budget execution reports and submitted them to the NA. Key recommendations of budget execution reports are incorporated into the NA’s Resolutions and follow- up actions have been taken by the Government. A peer review of its development needs was carried out by the Office of the Auditor-General of New Zealand, and a 10-year Action Plan for capacity development and a 3-year Implementation Plan have been prepared. SAO aims to follow international standards on auditing, and to develop its work on performance audit. The NSEDP 2011 - 2015 framework which was discussed at the Round Table meeting in November 2010 continues its central focus on improving the governance of public finances for improving service delivery. This focus will be operationalized through the PFMSP. In order to fully implement the PFMSP, the Government will require significant capacity enhancement, continued politi- cal commitment and technical assistance. Key Reform Progress The operationalization of the revised Budget Law continues to progress, through the implementation of the PFM- SP medium-term plan. The GOL has completed the centralization of the Treasury, Customs, and Tax functions nation- wide by end-2009. This has enabled greater control over the revenue sources and more timely budget execution. The revenue sharing and distribution framework has been designed and finalized while budgetary allocation norms have been prepared. Implementation of new revenue assignments between central and local levels (based on the implement- ing decree of the Budget Law) is expected to start in FY2010/11. A multi-donor trust fund launched in February 2009 continues to provide financial support to implementation of critical reforms under the PFMSP. A Public Expenditure and Financial Accountability (PEFA) assessment has been completed in 2010, establishing a baseline for monitoring the performance of Lao PDR PFM system over time. A Public Expenditure Review was also conducted during 2010. The results of the PEFA assessment and policy recommendations from the PER together provide inputs to the GOL for formulation of the PFMSP medium-term implementation plan for 2011-2015. The PFMSP Mid-Term Review was con- ducted in November 2010, reviewing the progress with PFMSP implementation and recommending reform priorities for the next five years. A medium-term PFMSP implementation plan for 2011-2015 has been formulated, incorporating recommendations from the mid-term review. A number of important reforms have been implemented to facilitate improved budget execution and treasury reform. The MOF has completed the administrative integration of provincial treasury units into the National Treas- ury. The Government has adopted a new decree on the National Treasury, providing a new legal basis for the treasury operations and the integration of the operations nationwide. The decree also establishes new tasks for the National Treasury, including the improved management of the Government finances. The MOF has adopted a strategy for im- plementing a Treasury Single Account (TSA) in the Bank of Lao PDR (BOL) with a view to consolidating all Lao PDR Economic Monitor - MAY 2011 Government cash balances in the BOL under the control of the National Treasury through transferring Government unit bank accounts to the National Treasury and improving the Government banking arrangements. The MOF together with line ministries has started the transfer of their bank accounts to the National Treasury. The MOF and BOL have started the pilot implementation of the TSA (zero-balance Treasury account) at the BOL branches as a part of the implementation of the first phase of the TSA arrangement. The MOF has completed roll-out of a locally developed government financial information system (GFIS) to all provinces and line ministries. The GFIS supports the day-to-day treasury operations both at the National Treasury and its provincial offices with following main functionalities: (i) budget recording and distribution, (ii) processing payment and receipt transactions, and (iii) fiscal reporting. The GFIS has recently been upgraded to be operated on a unified Chart of accounts and budget nomenclature aligned with Government Finance Statistics (GFS) and with centralized system architecture, allowing real time access to budget execution data once transac- tions are entered into the system. At the moment, the MOF has recruited an international consultant firm to help designing a full function treasury system- the Treasury Information Management System (TIMS). The consultant team is expected to start its work from mid 2011. The design consultant will provide analysis, business process review and functional requirements definition leading to an international open procurement process to identify and select a preferred product to be implemented as TIMS. All necessary ingredients for successful implementation of the VAT in the Lao PDR were put in place – with the exception of IT applications, which were prepared and tested but are not yet operational. More specifi- cally, the VAT Implementation Decree and the VAT Implementation Instructions put in place a coherent set of rules that allow for the VAT to be enforced in accordance with international standards, while detailed procedures were developed and embedded in formal instructions that allowed for proper administration and collection of the tax by the Tax Authorities. VAT law was formally entered into force since January 2010. Significant challenges re- main with VAT implementation. They include full registration of businesses with a turnover above the registration threshold, making the VAT ICT system and the refund system fully operational to allow for quick processing and payment of refunds to exporters. Further training of staff and outreach to taxpayers is required to ensure that staff in charge as well as VAT Taxpayers are aware of and knowledgeable about the existing legal and procedural Instruc- tions and that they implement these properly and consistently. In addition, Government is reviewing the General Tax Law with a view to revising it to abolish of the turnover tax and align the threshold for the application of the presumptive tax regime with the VAT registration threshold. In addition the revision would review the impact of the minimum tax on the business environment as well as the use of excise taxes as revenue source. The Lao Customs Department is now moving ahead with the introduction of the ASYCUDA World system. ASYCUDA provides a platform for the introduction of modern risk-managed techniques for customs that will streamline trade facilitation procedures and improve the efficiency of revenue collection. The first phase (currently underway and estimated to last approximately nine months) provides for the development of a prototype system. A key initial step, now almost complete, is the mapping of existing customs clearance procedures in order to identify redundancies that can be eliminated as well as changes that will need to be made as part of ASYCUDA implementa- tion. Reforms are also ongoing as part of efforts to harmonize procedures within international norms including, for example, the introduction of the ASEAN Single Administrative Document in March 2010 and the approval of new WTO consistent regulations on Customs Valuation in July 2010. SAO continues with the implementation of its 3-year plan for capacity development and is making impor- tant impact on enhancing government accountability. SAO has completed the audit of the budget execution for FY2008/09 and submitted timely its report to the National Assembly. The debate of the audit findings at December 2010 National Assembly was live-broadcasted by TV and widely reported in public media. The NA subsequently issued a resolution to impose strict measures to correct the wrongdoings found by the audit. SAO is preparing a summary of the audit report to be disseminated to the public for the first time. SAO financial and human resources have been further strengthened with its budget allocation and staff doubled for the FY 2010-2011. The introduction of budgetary allocation norms for the education and health sectors has been progressing gradually. Effort has been made in designing the budget allocation norms since 2008 to move forward to a more 15 Structural and Policy Reforms rule-based budgeting. Progress has been made on the technical aspects in designing formulae for the budget alloca- tion norms for the social sectors and these formulae have been discussed and agreed in principle upon by MOF and line ministries concerned. However, the implementation has made slow progress due to inadequate explanations and insufficient understanding of the provincial and sectoral authorities on this initiative. Recently, MOF and concerned sector ministries have made their collective effort in working out the details of the unit costs, which will be used in the budget allocation norm formulae so that the budget norms for the education and health sectors can be applied from FY2011/12. Significant progress has been made in improving T 1able the timeliness of civil servants’ salary payments and strengthening public sector performance. GOL’s Priority Sectors Expenditure The GOL piloted an electronic salary payment sys- tem (ESPS) in 2008 to replace manual cash pay- 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 ment. Currently, salaries of all civil servants at the Priority Sectors Recurrent Spending central level and all provinces, where ATM facilities are available, are deposited to their individual bank (percent of total recurrent spending)* accounts and can be withdrawn through ATMs. Total four sectors 18.9 17.7 19.9 Agriculture 1.8 1.7 1.8 Priority sectors recurrent spending as a ratio to Infrastructure 0.9 0.8 1.0 total recurrent expenditure increased notably in FY08/09. The share of recurrent expenditure of Education 12.8 12.0 13.5 the four priority sectors as percent of total recurrent Health 3.3 3.3 3.6 expenditure rose to 19.9 percent in FY08/09 from (percent of total expenditure) 17.7 percent in FY07/08. In the same time, the ratio for education increased to 13.5 percent in FY08/09 Total four sectors 9.0 9.7 9.6 from 12 percent in FY07/08 and, for health it Agriculture 0.9 0.9 0.9 climbed from 3.3 percent to 3.6 percent, respec- Infrastructure 0.4 0.4 0.5 tively. However, the sectors recurrent spending to Education 6.1 6.5 6.5 total expenditure ratio dropped slightly to 9.6 per- cent in FY08/09 from 9.7 percent in FY07/08 due Health 1.6 1.8 1.7 to large increase in capital spending, especially for Total Priority Sectors Spending SEA games and other local infrastructure projects. (percent of total expenditure) Overall, the four sectors total spending as share of Total four sectors 46.3 9.7 45.8 total public expenditure increased to 45.8 percent Recurrent 9.0 9.7 9.6 in FY08/09 from 39.7 percent in FY07/08 and, as Capital 37.3 30.0 36.1 share of GDP, it rose to 10.5 percent from 7.3 per- Agriculture 5.1 5.6 3.0 cent, respectively. Infrastructure** 21.7 17.8 26.4 Education 16.3 12.8 10.7 Health 3.2 3.5 5.6 (percent of GDP) Total four sectors 8.5 7.3 10.5 Recurrent 1.7 1.8 2.2 Capital 6.8 5.5 8.3 Source: Lao authorities (MOF) and staff calculations. Agriculture 0.9 1.0 0.7 Note: * Total recurrent expenditure includes salaries Infrastructure 4.0 3.3 6.1 and benefits, transfers, administrative expenses, and other Education 3.0 2.3 2.5 recurrent spending. ** includes off-budget spending on local Health 0.6 0.6 1.3 infrastructure project Lao PDR Economic Monitor - MAY 2011 2.2 FINANCIAL SECTOR DEVELOPMENT The formal financial sector remains dominated by State Owned Commercial Banks (SOCBs), but signs of competition have been seen recently due to the role that joint-venture and private banks have been playing in the very recent past. The financial system is dominated by banks, with non-bank financial institutions (NBFI) representing only 0.8 of overall financial sector assets as of June 2010. SOCBs are still dominant with around a 60 percent share of total banking sector assets, but this share is declining. The assets of pri- vate and joint venture banks have increased recently as new private banks emerged. In the past two years, 6 new commercial banks8 commenced operations in Lao PDR and brought the total number of banking in- stitutions to 23, consisting of 4 SOCBs, 3 joint-ventures, 2 private and 14 foreign bank branches. Increased competition by recent entries of new private banks has provided an incentive for SOCBs to improve their performance, risk management, governance, and products and services. Lao PDR launched its first stock exchange. With support from the Korean and Thai Stock Exchanges, the Lao Government opened its first Lao Stock Exchange (LSX) on January 11, 2011. The Government sees the develop- ment of its capital markets as an avenue to fund its socio-economic development plan, and hopes the security mar- ket will be able to facilitate long term funding for the business sector. So far, two state-owned enterprises (SOEs), namely Electricite du Laos (EDL GEN) and Banque Pour le Commerce Exterieur Lao (BCEL), were listed in the new market as the pioneers. The recently appointed Lao Securities Exchange Commission has been developing the regulatory and supervisory framework for capital markets. In addition, development of necessary infrastructure to support a vibrant capital market, such as payment and clearance systems, is very important to ensure the success of the new stock exchange. The size of the formal financial sector is gradually increasing, while relatively low by international standards and similar levels of income per capita. Monetization rate has increased fairly quickly in recent years but remains relatively low. Broad money (M2) to GDP ratio was about 34.1 percent in 2010, up from 29.2 percent in 2009. The financial system remains dominated by State-Owned Commercial Banks (SOCBs), which account for 59.3 percent of total banking assets in 2010, while 6 new banks (mainly private and joint venture banks) have recently entered the domestic market. The asset size of three SOCBs increased by 36 percent yoy in 2010 compared to the total industry growth of 50 percent while the asset of private and joint venture banks grew rapidly by over 90 percent. Nevertheless, BCEL remains the largest market player in the Lao banking industry with a share in terms of asset size and deposits of around 35-45 percent (2010). A growing share of the population has access to formal financial services, with increasing access points, while starting from a very low base. Access points to the formal financial system, such as bank branches, have grown from 62 in 2007 to 84 branches in December 2010. The number of sub-service units expanded (from 66 in 2007 to 198 in 2010) as banks made use of their ability to reach out for a greater number of deposits. The number of ATMs has increased rapidly from 12 in 2006, to 51 in 2007, to 248 in 2010. Access is more developed in urban areas, and especially in Vientiane, but it is catching up outside Vientiane, where most of the commercial bank branches have been created (53 out of 80 in 2010). Bank service units located outside Vientiane have tripled since 2007, from 54 to 150. Similarly, there are now 88 ATMs outside Vientiane, compared to only 9 ATMs three years ago. The microfinance industry is gradually improving. In order to promote development of the microfinance sector, BOL has set up a new department called “Financial Institution Supervision Department” in late 2010 to oversee mi- crofinance development activities in the country. A new decree on microfinance, which consolidated and elevated the previously separate regulations on deposit taking, non-deposit taking and credit unions, is under Government’s review. The new decree is expected to introduce opportunities for participation of foreign investment. So far, there are three regulations which regulate Micro Finance Institutions (MFIs) in Lao PDR: (1) the Regulation for Deposit Taking MFI (key requirements: the loan size limit at 10 million Kip per customer and minimum initial capital 8 These banks include: Booyong Bank, International Commercial Bank Lao Limited, Vietnam Army Bank, ST Bank, Lao-French Bank, and Indochina Bank. 17 Structural and Policy Reforms of 1 billion kip), (2) the Regulation for Savings and Credit Unions (the MFI can take deposits and lend only within their member group), and (3) the Regulation for Non-Deposit Taking MFI (it allows for a diverse set of microfinance services but relying on savings as the basis for lending). As of December 2010, there were 28 MFIs registered under BOL’s regulations (compared to 10 MFIs in December 2007), with 7 deposit taking and 9 non-deposit taking and 12 SCUs. With support from donors, BOL arranged several MFI trainings on accounting, business planning, management information systems and loan delinquency management in the past year. Payments and clearance systems and credit reporting systems are still underdeveloped. There is a clearing house in the Bank of Lao PDR where banks meet once a day to clear payments which is functional. The main domestic payment instruments are cash and checks, and checks are cumbersome to use. ATMs are available to customers, but banks do not share or network. BOL is going to review and develop a legal and regulatory framework that supports payment systems development with the overall objective of improving the safety and efficiency of the national pay- ments system as well as legitimating the settlement transactions in Lao PDR. A joint venture company was set up to provide ATM pool service with limited success so far. Efforts are being made to establish a credit bureau to comple- ment the existing credit information bureau (CIB) at BOL. Currently, all credit reports of corporate, enterprise and personal customers with loan amount more than 20 million kip are reported to the CIB as part of the credit analysis process of all commercial banks in the country. However, further improvement is needed for small loans (mainly from Microfinance projects) as most microfinance customers do not have adequate documentation, such as passport, ID card and or House registration documents. Some measures were taken to strengthen bank supervision. The Bank of Lao PDR reviewed and updated the exist- ing prudential ratios applying to commercial banks in accordance with Basel principles. Two revised regulations were the net open position (NOP) and loan classification regulations. Under the new guideline (No. 818, 20 October 2010), the limit of NOP of single currency and all currency increased from 15% and 20% to 20% and 25% respectively. The revision was based on the BOL’s assessment of the characteristics of the Lao economy and the dollarization degree. New loan classification was also approved (No. 324 dated 19 April 2011). Under the new regulation, loans will be classified into 5 classes instead of existing 3 classes. The new Pass and Special Mention classes will be added to the existing substandard, Doubtful and Loss classes. The basic principle in loan classification will be based on number of past due date. 2.3 TRADE REFORM Lao PDR has been gradually integrating into the world economy through accession to regional and multilat- eral trade organizations such as the ASEAN Free Trade Area and the World Trade Organization (WTO). The country initially applied to join the WTO in 1997, and is now making solid progress towards accession. The GOL is implementing a sector-wide approach to trade-related reforms based on the 2006 DTIS/IF Action Matrix9, to help address the supply-side constraints that inhibit export competitiveness. New institutional structures are being put in place and new investments are being made in customs and border administra- tion as part of efforts to support improved trade facilitation. GOL is also now starting to update the DTIS with a new set of trade and integration priorities. Exports have recovered swiftly and strongly following the global financial crisis, driven by both rapidly rising prices in key export commodities, as well as increased flows of minerals and the start-up of exported power generation in major hydropower facilities. Exports of non-natural resource based products, including in agribusiness and light manufacturing are also growing, although this process is being somewhat overshadowed by growth in the natural resource sectors. Key Reform Actions Taken Progress towards WTO accession continues to be made, but key challenges remain ahead. The sixth meet- ing of the Lao WTO Working Party (WP) took place in September 2010, at which the Lao delegation reported the progress on legislative reforms. These include new regulations on Import and Export procedures, legislation to establish SPS and TBT enquiry and notification points, a new Investment Law, new customs procedures includ- ing steps towards achieving compliance with the WTO Valuation Agreement. A key landmark is the approval of a new Decree in February 2011 which formally introduces the principle of “national treatment” into Lao law Lao PDR Economic Monitor - MAY 2011 and establishes the principle of equal trading rights. However, key legislative gaps remain including much of the necessary subsidiary legislation relating to sanitary and phytosanitary measures, and regulations on intellectual property. Laos continues to make headway with the concluding of bilateral agreements, having signed agreements with China and Japan in 2010. Agreements have been reached, but not yet signed with India and New Zealand, and Laos is close to reaching an agreement with the EU. Eventually Lao PDR’s accession to the WTO will depend on concluding agreements with all WP members on goods and services. The GOL has drafted the “elements of the Working Party report”, which will need to be upgraded to a full Working Party report to be submitted to the WTO Ministerial Conference or General Council by the WP. The final report will recommend that Laos be admitted as a member. The seventh Working Party meeting is planned for May 2011. Lao PDR is progressively complying with requirements to reduce tariffs under AFTA Common Effective Preferential Tariff. As of August 2009, all remaining products on the sensitive list were brought into the inclusive list, of which 71 percent of products have a zero tariff. Lao PDR is required to reduce tariffs to zero on all inclusive list products imported from ASEAN countries by the year 2015. Important work on trade facilitation is progressing with key steps taken during 2010. A national coordinating body for trade facilitation – the National Trade Facilitation Secretariat was formally established in October 2010, by a Decision of the Deputy Prime Minister. A Trade Facilitation Strategy and Action Plan has also now been completed and was formally endorsed in March 2011 for submission to the government for approval. The strategy and action plan identifies an agenda for improving trade facilitation and cooperation among border agencies with a proposed implementation structure and clear responsibilities for lead agencies as well as pre-defined performance indicators. Similarly, work has progressed with the developed on customs reform and modernization with the development of a new “prototype” system (ASYCUDA World), with streamlined procedures. Deployment of the “pilot” system is due to commence at the Lao-Thai Friendship Bridge in Thanaleng in May 2011. 9 The action matrix was formulated based on the recommendations of the Diagnostic Trade Integration Study (DTIS) and is implemented under the National Integrated Framework (IF) Governance Structure. 19 Structural and Policy Reforms 2.4 PRIVATE SECTOR DEVELOPMENT The Lao PDR Constitution of 1991 protects state, collective, and private forms of ownership. During the 1990s an active legislative program laid the foundations for developing market based rules and institutions to support private sector development. Today, agricultural production and most manufacturing production are in private hands, and SOEs only cover around one percent of employment. Nearly 97 percent of manufacturing units are small (less than 10 employees). Of the medium and large units, around one third are privately owned by Lao PDR citizens and just over half are joint ventures with foreigners. The remainder is owned by government. For- eign investment inflows have increased rapidly, in both resource and non-resource sectors (mainly hydropower, mining, agriculture, processing industries, and tourism). Between 2003 and 2010, actual investments increased from $110 million to almost $800 million, with hydropower and mining now accounting for some 80 percent of inflows. The main foreign investors are from Thailand, China and Vietnam, with other countries such as France, Australia and South Korea also registering with significant investments. Laos has an increasingly strong higher level regulatory business environment, but significant gaps remain with regard to inconsistent and partial imple- mentation of key laws, and remaining gaps in the subsidiary legislation. Key Reform Progress A key recent landmark during 2010 was the approval of a new Unified Investment Promotion Law in May 2010 (retro- actively promulgated to apply from July 2009). The new law replaces previously separate domestic and foreign investment laws and, with the pending issuance of a Prime Minister’s Decree, eliminates the need for new investors to obtain an investment license. Thus the new law abolishes lengthy and cumbersome licensing approval procedures for general investment activities, and - in principle - creates a level-playing field for both domestic and foreign investors by harmonizing business entry pro- cedures and investment incentives. With the new Law, foreign investors in general business activities can proceed straight to registration under the Enterprise Law. Implementation of the Enterprise Law and the Law on Processing Industry is continuing. Several important steps have recently been taken by GOL to simplify business entry, such as elimination of the minimum capital requirement for starting a business, introduction of a simplified business registration system in major provinces as part of the Enterprise Law implemen- tation, and abolishment of establishment licenses for general manufacturing firms based on the Law on Processing Industries. Several mechanisms for public-private dialogue to identify and address business constraints have been established and are operational at both the central and provincial levels, such as the Lao Business Forum ( January 2011), Provincial Public-Private Dialogues, and direct dialogues between LNCCI and various business associations and the GOL. However, the efficiency and effectiveness of these dialogues need to be enhanced further as several issues raised in past dialogues still have not been resolved, such as the tourist arrival fee, investment incentives, procedures for importing assistance goods funded by ODA, and other issues. New data from the World Bank’s 2010 Investment Climate Assessment suggests that the key constraints – as reported by the domestic private sector – have evolved from hard infrastructural challenges (such as transport, communications and energy infrastructure as reported in the 2006 ICA), to softer aspects of the business environment (such as access to finance, tax administration and labour skills). In addition, poor productivity outweighs the advantage of low labour costs and leaves Laos at a net competitive disadvantage compared to other countries in the region. Firms serving the domestic market appear more productive and earn greater returns than exporters (the opposite of that seen in most other developing countries), which suggest (i) low levels of competition on domestic markets including barriers to entry, and (ii) emerging signs of losses of international competitiveness by non-resource sector exporting firms as a result of increased labor costs pushed up by monetary inflows as a result of the hydropower and minerals booms. The 2010 Investment Climate assessment also shed light on a disconnect between actual business practices and what the law mandates. Looking at three comparable indicators (time to obtain a construction permit, time to clear customs for exports and import) shows that it takes systematically less time to obtain a permit or to clear customs in practice (survey based) com- pared to what a regulatory based estimate such as the World Bank “Doing Business Indicators” say. It may signal opportunities to further streamline laws and regulations which both respond to the need of the private sector of simple business procedures, while addressing the need of effectively regulating its expansion. Lao PDR Economic Monitor - MAY 2011 21 Annex ANNEX 1 – LAO PDR AT A GLANCE TABLE Key Development Indicators* Lao PDR East Asia Low & pacific income 2010 Population, mid-year (millions) 6.4 1,930 976 GNI (Atlas method, US$ billions) 6.5 5,102 510 GNI per capita (Atlas method US$) 1010 2,644 523 GNI per capita (PPP, international $) 2,050 5,426 1,355 GDP growth (%) 8.4 8.0 6.3 GDP per capita growth (%) 6.5 7.2 4.1 Local prices 2007 2008 2009 2010 Consumer prices (annual % change) 4.5 7.6 0.1 6.0 Implicit GDP deflator 7.6 9.6 0.1 8.9 Exchange rate (period average, kip per 1 US$) 9603 8635 8498 8235 Structure of the Economy GDP (US$ millions) 4,262 5,563 6,107 7,491 Agriculture (% of GDP) 34.4 33.1 31.7 30.0 Industry (% of GDP) 26.6 27.6 28.9 31.4 Services (% of GDP) 39.1 39.3 39.4 38.6 Balance of Payments and Trade (US$ millions) Exports of goods (fob) 1215 1451 1460 2091 Imports of goods (cif) 2032 2484 2424 2693 Exports of goods and services 1440 1763 1764 2481 Imports of goods and services 2124 2602 2551 2845 Net trade in goods and services -684 -839 -787 -364 Current account balance (% of GDP) -19.2 -18.5 -13.6 -8.6 Non-resources current account (% of GDP) -11.9 -18.9 -18.1 -14.1 Reserves, including gold 531 636 633 730 Government Finance (FY) (% of GDP) Total revenue (including grants) 13.6 13.4 15.9 18.2 Revenue 11.9 12.1 13.8 13.9 Tax revenue 11.9 12.1 12.2 12.5 Current expenditure 8.7 9.9 10.9 9.8 Overall surplus/deficit -2.7 -2.7 -6.7 -4.6 External Debt and Resource Flows Total external public debt (% of GDP) 58.2 54.0 55.4 51.5 Total debt service (% of exports) 12.5 10.4 15.6 16.2 Foreign direct investment (US$ millions) 838 976 774 761 Source: World Development Indicators ans staff estimates based on Lao authorities data. * Preliminary estimates for 2010 Lao PDR Economic Monitor - MAY 2011 ANNEX 2 – GLOBAL ECONOMIC OUTLOOK The global economic outlook is expected to be positive in 2011. The overall world economic growth (yoy) continues to remain fairly strong at about 4.4 percent this year (6.5 for emerging and developing economies and 2.4 percent for advanced economies - IMF WEO, April 2011). Nevertheless, pressures from the unbalanced recovery of the world econ- omy exist, especially with regard to unemployment, commodity prices, and capital flows. However, the global outlook and the length of the global recession still remain uncertain at this time. This paper bases its country-level projections for Lao PDR’s FDI and export demand on IMF (WEO April 2011) and the World Bank’s projections (EAP Update March 2011) for the regional and global economic outlook and commodity prices, presented in Annex Table 1 below. Annex The Global Economic Outlook in Summary (percentage, change from previous year, unless otherwise specified) T 1 able 2007 2008 2009e 2010f 2011f 2012f Global conditions Global conditions World Output 1/ 5.2 3.0 -0.6 5.0 4.4 4.5 World trade volume 7.3 3.0 -10.7 12.4 7.4 6.9 Consumer prices Advanced Economies 2.2 3.4 0.1 1.6 2.2 1.7 United Sates 2.9 3.8 Emerging and Developing Economies 2/ 6.4 9.3 5.2 6.2 6.9 5.3 Developing Asia 5.4 7.5 Commodity prices (percentage change of USD terms) Non-oil commodities 3/ 14.1 7.5 -15.8 26.3 25.1 -4.3 Agriculture 20.1 27.2 Food 25.7 33.9 Metals and minerals 6.2 -2.1 Copper 5.9 -2.3 Oil price 4/ 10.7 36.4 -36.3 27.9 35.6 0.8 Manufactures unit export value 2/ 5.5 7.5 London Interbank Offered Rate (%) 5/ on USD Deposits 2.4 0.9 1.1 0.5 0.6 0.9 on Euro Deposits 2.0 0.4 1.2 0.8 1.7 2.6 On Japanese Yen Deposits 0.7 0.4 0.6 0.3 Real GDP growth World 5.2 3.0 -0.5 5 4.4 4.5 Advanced Economies 2.7 0.6 -3.4 3.0 2.4 2.6 United States 2.1 0.4 -2.7 2.8 2.8 2.9 Euro Area 2.7 0.7 -4.2 1.7 1.6 1.8 Japan 2.3 -0.7 -5.4 3.9 1.4 2.1 United Kingdom 2.6 0.7 -4.4 1.3 1.7 2.3 Central and Eastern Europe 5.5 3.0 -5.0 Emerging and Developing Asian Economies 8.3 6.0 1.7 9.4 7.9 7.9 Developing Asia 10.6 7.6 6.2 9.5 8.4 8.4 China 13.0 9.0 8.5 10.3 9.6 9.5 India 9.4 7.3 5.4 10.4 8.2 7.8 Indonesia 6.3 6.1 4.0 6.1 6.2 6.5 Thailand 4.9 2.6 -3.5 7.8 4.0 4.5 Middle East and North Africa 6.3 5.2 1.7 3.8 4.1 4.2 Source: IMF (WEO, April 2011) Note: 1/ The quarterly estimate and projections account for 90 percent of the world purchasing power parity weights 2/ The quarterly estimates and projections account for approximately 79 percent of the emerging and developing economies. 3/ Average based on commodity export weight 4/ Simple average of prices of UK Brent, Dubai, and West Texas Intermediate crude oil. The average oil price was US$ 79.03 a barrel in 2010; 23 the assumed price based on futures markets is US$107.16 in 2011 and US$108.00 in 2012. 5/ Six-month rate for the US and Japan. Three month rate for the Euro Area Annex ANNEX 3 - ACRONYMS AND ABBREVIATIONS AFTA ASEAN Free Trade Area NFA Net Foreign Assets ASEA Association of Southeast Asian Nations NPL Non-Performing Loan ATM Automatic Teller Machine NSEDP National Socio-Economic Development Plan BCEL Banque Pour Le Commerce Extérieur Lao NT2 Nam Theun 2 Project BOL Bank of Lao PDR ODA Official Development Assistance CIB credit information bureau PEFA Public Expenditure and Financial Accountability CPI Consumer Price Index PFMSP Public Finance Management Strengthening Program DT MFI Deposit Taking MFI PIP public investment programs DTIS Diagnostic Trade and Integration Study REER Real effective exchange rate EAP East Asia & Pacific SAO State Audit Organization EdL Electricité du Lao SOCBs State Owned Commercial Banks ESPS Electronic Salary Payment System SOE State-Owned Enterprise FDI Foreign Direct Investment SPS Sanitary and Phyto-Sanitary FY Fiscal Year (Oct-Sept) TBT Technical Barrier to Trade GDP Gross Domestic Product TIMS Treasury Information Management System GFIS government financial information system TSA Treasury Single Account GFS Government Finance Statistics VAT Value Added Tax GOL The Government of Lao PDR WB World Bank ICT Information and Communication Technology WEO World Economic Outlook IF Integrated Framework WP Lao WTO Working Party IMF International Monetary Fund WTO World Trade Organization LNCCI Lao National Chamber of Commerce and Industry LSX Lao Stock Exchange MFI Micro Finance Institutions MOF Ministry of Finance NA National Assembly NBFI Non-Bank Financial Institution NDT MFI Non-Deposit Taking MFI NEER Nominal effective exchange rate Lao PDR Economic Monitor - MAY 2011 25 THE WORLD BANK OFFICE, VIENTIANE P.O. 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