The World Bank Implementation Status & Results Report Development of systems to prevent forest fires and monitor vegetation cover in the Brazilian Cerrado (P143185) Development of systems to prevent forest fires and monitor vegetation cover in the Brazilian Cerrado (P143185) LATIN AMERICA AND CARIBBEAN | Brazil | Environment & Natural Resources Global Practice | Recipient Executed Activities | Investment Project Financing | FY 2016 | Seq No: 6 | ARCHIVED on 20-Dec-2018 | ISR35542 | Implementing Agencies: Fundacao de Desenvolvimento da Pesquisa (FUNDEP), Ministerio da Ciencia, Tecnologia e Inovacao (MCTI), Fundacao de Desenvolvimento da Pesquisa Key Dates Key Project Dates Bank Approval Date: 28-Mar-2016 Effectiveness Date: 22-Jun-2016 Planned Mid Term Review Date: 22-Feb-2019 Actual Mid-Term Review Date: -- Original Closing Date: 29-May-2020 Revised Closing Date: 29-May-2020 pdoTable Project Development Objectives Project Development Objective (from Project Appraisal Document) The objective of the Project is to enhance the Member Country’s institutional capacity in monitoring deforestation, in providing information on fire risks, and in estimating related GHG emissions in the Cerrado. Has the Project Development Objective been changed since Board Approval of the Project Objective? No Components Table Name Deforestation monitoring:(Cost $4.39 M) Information systems on forest fire risk and GHG emissions estimation:(Cost $3.31 M) Project management, monitoring and evaluation:(Cost $1.55 M) Overall Ratings Name Previous Rating Current Rating Progress towards achievement of PDO Moderately Satisfactory Satisfactory Overall Implementation Progress (IP) Moderately Satisfactory Moderately Satisfactory Overall Risk Rating Moderate Moderate Implementation Status and Key Decisions This Project is part of the Brazil Investment Plan (BIP) under the Forest Investment Program (FIP). The higher-level objective of the BIP, to which the project contributes to is: to promote sustainable land use and to improve forest management in the Cerrado, the second largest biome in Brazil and in South America, to reduce pressure on its remaining forests, to reduce GHG emissions and to increase CO2 sequestration. This project aims at the systematic and continuous generation of information on deforestation, forest degradation, land use, and the development of an early-warning system for preventing forest fires. Accurate, up-to-date, high-quality information should also contribute to enabling better 12/20/2018 Page 1 of 8 The World Bank Implementation Status & Results Report Development of systems to prevent forest fires and monitor vegetation cover in the Brazilian Cerrado (P143185) management of the Cerrado. The Project is acting in synergy with the ongoing efforts from the Government of Brazil and other BIP projects, and will contribute to achieve the of objectives of both the National Policy on Climate Change and the Plan to Prevent and Control Deforestation and Fires in the Cerrado. The project is being implemented by the Ministry of Science, Technology, Innovation and Communication (MCTIC) in partnership with National Institute for Space Research (INPE), Federal University of Goiás (UFG), and Federal University of Minas Gerais (UFMG), with support from FUNDEP, the Implementing Agency of the project that handles all the administrative tasks. The Project has three components: (i) deforestation monitoring; (ii) information systems on forest fire risk and GHG emissions estimation; and (iii) project management, monitoring and evaluation. The project overall progress has been accelerated since 2017. The following technical activities are ongoing: (i) development of tools to customize a modeling platform (EGO Dynamics); (ii) development of cartographic bases for the development of a modeling system for Cerrado; (iii) web-GIS project to estimate the accuracy and precision of deforestation polygons; and (iv) time series analysis based on satellite images. Deforestation estimates for the Cerrado biome have been generated by different studies and projects in the past. For instance, estimates of emissions from deforestation in the Cerrado biome were generated for the periods 2009, 2010, 2011-2013, 2013-2015. It should be highlighted, however, that there are differences between the estimates presented in the different studies. The Cerrado deforestation rate annual series and near-real time deforestation detection information (DETER-Cerrado) have been finalized, and these ensure consistency and are regular product to be delivered annual. The Cerrado Biome annual deforestation rates for 2018 were launched this month. Furthermore, the methodology that is being used to calculate GHG emissions from deforestation (the conversion of forest formations to other land uses) is based on the IPCC guidance for LULUCF. The outputs of the project are expected to be used to report emission from deforestation in the Cerrado biome for results-based payments for REDD+ under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. Regarding the forest fire prevention system, a technical team has been in the field to gather information for the Fire Ignition, Spread and Carbon Model (FISC) for the Cerrado biome; the monitoring teams have started to analyze images to classify them to generate the land-use map planned for the Project; the fire risk team will start to implement the activities to improve the INPE's Vegetation Weather Fire Risk; the emission’s subcomponent has launched its system. To date, 67 consultants have been contracted for the following activities: i) development of tools to customize a modeling platform (EGO Dynamics); ii) development of cartographic bases for the development of a modeling system for Cerrado; iii) web-GIS project to estimate the accuracy and precision of deforestation polygons; iv) time series analysis based on satellite images. These consultants will work for the Project for at least three years, and they are needed to develop the Project's technical products under the technical guidance of the Project Coordinators. Project technical progress can be access in the following webpages: http://www.dpi.inpe.br/fipcerrado/; http://csr.ufmg.br/fipcerrado/; http://www.inpe.br/queimadas/portal; http://dpat.lapig.iesa.ufg.br:4000/; and http://www.dpi.inpe.br/projetos/doku.php?id=terrabrasilis:basededados Risks Systematic Operations Risk-rating Tool Risk Category Rating at Approval Previous Rating Current Rating Political and Governance Moderate Moderate Moderate Macroeconomic Moderate Moderate Moderate Sector Strategies and Policies Low Low Low Technical Design of Project or Program Low Low Low Institutional Capacity for Implementation and Sustainability Moderate Substantial Substantial Fiduciary Moderate Low Low Environment and Social Low Low Low Stakeholders Low Low Low Other -- -- -- Overall Moderate Moderate Moderate Results 12/20/2018 Page 2 of 8 The World Bank Implementation Status & Results Report Development of systems to prevent forest fires and monitor vegetation cover in the Brazilian Cerrado (P143185) PDO Indicators by Objectives / Outcomes Enhance Brazil Institutional capacity to monior deforestation in the Cerrado Biome IN00571457 ►Information on deforestation in the Cerrado is regularly made available to the public and relevant institutions (Yes/No, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value No -- Yes Yes Date 09-Jun-2017 -- 18-Dec-2018 29-May-2020 IN00571451 ►Government institutions in charge of policy, deforestation control and fire prevention using use the information on deforestation and fire risk in the Cerrado (Number, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 0.00 -- 15.00 15.00 Date 16-Dec-2015 -- 18-Dec-2018 29-May-2020 1. Centro de Monitoramento e Alerta de Desastres Naturais (CEMADEN) 2. IBAMA – its Centro Nacional de Prevenção e Combate aos Incêndios Florestais (PrevFogo) and its states agencies. 3. Instituto Chico Mendes de Conservação da Biodiversidade (ICMBio) – especifically for the fire Parque Nacional da Serra do Cipó; Parque Naciomal da Chapada dos Veadeiros; and Parque Nacional da Serra da Canastra 4. Centro Integrado Multiagências de Coordenação Operacional e Federal em Brasília (CIMAN) 5. Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística (IBGE) 6. Fundação Nacional do Índio (FUNAI) Comments: 7. Ministério do Meio Ambiente (MMA) 8. Operador Nacional do Sistema Elétrico (ONS) 9. Agência nacional de Energia Elétrica (ANEEL) 10. Sistema de Proteção da Amazônia/Ministério da Defesa (SIPAM) 11. Serviço Florestal Brasileiro (SFB) 12. State Secretariats 13. Municipal Secretariats the specific State and Municipal Secretariats that are using the system will be identified for the MTR Report. Enhance Brazil 's institutional capacity to provide information on fire risks in the Cerrrado Biome IN00571460 ►Real-time information on potential fire spread in the Cerrado is publicly available (Yes/No, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value No -- Yes Yes Date 16-Dec-2015 -- 18-Dec-2018 29-May-2020 The information at: http://www.inpe.br/queimadas/portal Comments: IN00571458 ►Improved information on forest fire risk is publicly available (Yes/No, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target 12/20/2018 Page 3 of 8 The World Bank Implementation Status & Results Report Development of systems to prevent forest fires and monitor vegetation cover in the Brazilian Cerrado (P143185) Value No -- Yes Yes Date 16-Dec-2015 -- 18-Dec-2018 29-May-2020 The forest fire monitoring products have been developed and/or improved and available to the public. Comments: Enhance Brazil's intitutional capacity to estimate related GHG emisions in the Cerrado Biome IN00571461 ►GHG emissions estimates for the Cerrado available are publicly available (Yes/No, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value No -- Yes Yes Date 16-Dec-2015 -- 18-Dec-2018 29-May-2020 Intermediate Results Indicators by Components Deforestation monitoring IN00571452 ►Annual deforestation maps on the scale of 1:250.000 are publicly available (PRODES-Cerrado) (Number, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 0.00 -- 3.00 4.00 Date 16-Dec-2015 -- 18-Dec-2018 29-May-2020 So far, 2016, 2017 and 2018 have been finalized and are made public. The data are available at: Comments: http://www.obt.inpe.br/cerrado/ IN00571453 ►Deforestation data on the scale of 1:500,000 is delivered daily to deforestation control agencies and monthly to the public (DETER-Cerrado) (Number, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 0.00 -- 4.00 12.00 Date 16-Dec-2015 -- 18-Dec-2018 29-May-2020 INPE launched the deforestation detection monitoring in near real time (DETER – Deforestation Detection System) on May 1st, 2018. In a period of 90 days, CERBS-4 satellite (China–Brazil Earth Resources Satellite program) revisited 75 times the Cerrado areas and generated images over an accumulated area Comments: of 60,755,713km2, which is equivalent to 30 times total coverage of the Biome. This is issued to environmental agencies on a daily basis - this indicator will be revised to correctly capture the DETER- Cerrado results. Information systems on forest fire risk and GHG emissions estimation IN00571454 ►New fire risk information products are available to users on interactive communication devices (Number, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target 12/20/2018 Page 4 of 8 The World Bank Implementation Status & Results Report Development of systems to prevent forest fires and monitor vegetation cover in the Brazilian Cerrado (P143185) Value 0.00 -- 50.00 26.00 Date 16-Dec-2015 -- 18-Dec-2018 29-May-2020 Subcomponente 2.b. - New Products 1. Análise de componentes principais (PCA) para mapas 2. Download automático de dados de vento 3. Gerador de focos de incêndio probabilísticos por meio de histórico de áreas queimadas 4. Combustível seco baseado em imagens de satélite; 5. Umidade da vegetação por meio de imagens de satélite 6. Probabilidade bayesiana de fogo por meio de imagens de satélite e histórico de incêndios (para os parques); 7. Probabilidade bayesiana de fogo baseada nos modelos de sazonalidade da vegetação do cerrado 8. Vegetação mensal (combustível); 9. Modelo linear generalizado (GLM) para calculo das relações entre variáveis 10. Modelo de interpolação baseada em regressão não estacionária geograficamente ponderada (GWR) para predição da vegetação ao longo do cerrado por meio de variáveis climáticas; 11. Classificação supervisionada de imagens de satélite por meio de técnicas de análise de "Big- data" (SVM - Support vector machines) para uso nos parques no manejo do fogo; 12. Classificadores não supervisionados para identificação das unidades climáticas de análise no Cerrado (RF-random forest e CLARA - clustering for large applications); 13. Modelo de espalhamento e comportamento do fogo; 14. Modelo de áreas prioritárias para ações de manjo integrado do Fogo nos parques; 15. Modelo de conversão de mapas em kml para uso nos parques dos dados na interface Google Comments: Earth; 16. Mapas de probabilidade de fogo por simulação por meio de randomizações de cenários probabilísticos; 17. Modelo de dinâmica da vegetação pós-fogo; 18-interfaces amigáveis para o usuário final 18. Mapas de séries históricas de fogo nas unidades de conservação selecionadas; 19. Servidor de mapas online interativo; 20. Modelo de áreas sensíveis à ação do fogo. Subcomponent 2.a. – New Products 1. Mapa continental digital do Risco de Fogo, com dados observados, diário 2. Mapas continentais digitais do Risco de Fogo, previsão 01, 02 e 03 dias, diários 3. Gráficos Fogograma com previsão de Risco de Fogo para 3 dias, gerados a cada 06 horas 4. Gráficos e dados da análise de acertos do Risco de fogo para 05 regiões, diários 5. Mapas continentais digitais de Precipitação acumulada observada, 1, 5, 15 e 30 dias, diários 6. Mapas continentais digitais de Precipitação acumulada IMERG, 1, 5, 15 e 30 dias, diários 7. Mapas continentais digitais de Temperatura Máxima Média do Ar, 1, 5, 15, 30 dias, diários 8. Mapas continentais digitais de Umidade Relativa Mínima Média do Ar, 1, 5, 15, 30 dias, diários 9. Mapas continentais digitais de Vento Médio 1 dia e 5 dias, diários 10. Relatório diário automático com principais mapas de Risco de Fogo e das variáveis meteorológicas. 11. Boletim Mensal INFOQUEIMA IN00571455 ►Off-line fire ignition and spread risk (FISC) model is piloted in selected conservation areas (Number, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 0.00 -- 2.00 4.00 Date 16-Dec-2015 -- 18-Dec-2018 29-May-2020 The end target of this indicator will be revised to three (3). Comments: IN00571459 ►On-line fire ignition and fire spread risk (FISC) data is published on INPE’s website. (Percentage, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target 12/20/2018 Page 5 of 8 The World Bank Implementation Status & Results Report Development of systems to prevent forest fires and monitor vegetation cover in the Brazilian Cerrado (P143185) Value 0.00 -- 40.00 100.00 Date 16-Dec-2015 -- 18-Dec-2018 29-May-2020 Project management, monitoring and evaluation IN00571400 ►Govt institutions provided w/ capacity buildg to improve mgt of forest resources (Number, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 0.00 -- 10.00 15.00 Date 16-Dec-2015 -- 18-Dec-2018 29-May-2020 The following institutions are using Project's information and data: INPE, MCTIC, UFMG, UFG, ICMBio, IBAMA, FUNAI, SFB, MAPA, SENAR, In August 2018, FIP Monitoring team developed a field activity in the Xerente Indigenous Land, in Tocantins. The activity was carried out by INPE’s (National Institute for Space Research) Queimadas Program in cooperation with IBAMA-PrevFogo (Brazilian Institute of Environment and Renewable Natural Comments: Resources). The objective was to improve the Cerrado Fire Risk and Severity products and included light controlled fire, that was monitored by a drone equipped with camera and special radiometer for data acquisition, detection by the multi-spectral sensor of the Sentinel 2B Satellite and record of the meteorological data to calibrate and improve the products of Fire Risk and Severity. IN00571456 ►Independent reports on the quality of the project products (Number, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 0.00 -- 0.00 3.00 Date 16-Dec-2015 -- 18-Dec-2018 29-May-2020 This indicator will be dropped - new indicators to capture the quality/satisfaction of the training activities Comments: will be included. Overall Comments IR The Ministry of Science, Technology, Innovation and Communication (MCTI) and the National Institute of Space Research (INPE) offered the 1st FIP Monitoring Workshop, that was held in Brasilia last September 27 and 28, 2018. Several environmental specialists and users of deforestation data participated in the workshop. The technology for data production and actions to control deforestation of the Cerrado was presented by the MCTI - Biomas general coordinator, followed by a presentation of the PRODES Cerrado data, from 2000 to 2017. On December 11, 2018, the annual deforestation data for 2018 was launched. The deforestation rated decreased from 7,471.26km2 in 2017 to 6,657.01km2 in 2018. The data are available at: http://terrabrasilis.dpi.inpe.br/ In August 2018, FIP Monitoring team developed a field activity in the Xerente Indigenous Land, in Tocantins. The activity was carried out by INPE’s (National Institute for Space Research) Queimadas Program in cooperation with IBAMA-PrevFogo (Brazilian Institute of Environment and Renewable Natural Resources). 12/20/2018 Page 6 of 8 The World Bank Implementation Status & Results Report Development of systems to prevent forest fires and monitor vegetation cover in the Brazilian Cerrado (P143185) The objective was to improve the Cerrado Fire Risk and Severity products and included light controlled fire, that was monitored by a drone equipped with camera and special radiometer for data acquisition, detection by the multi-spectral sensor of the Sentinel 2B Satellite and record of the meteorological data to calibrate and improve the products of Fire Risk and Severity. Data on Financial Performance Disbursements (by loan) Project Loan/Credit/TF Status Currency Original Revised Cancelled Disbursed Undisbursed % Disbursed P143185 TF-A1787 Effective USD 9.25 9.25 0.00 2.59 6.66 28% Key Dates (by loan) Project Loan/Credit/TF Status Approval Date Signing Date Effectiveness Date Orig. Closing Date Rev. Closing Date P143185 TF-A1787 Effective 28-Mar-2016 06-Apr-2016 22-Jun-2016 29-May-2020 29-May-2020 Cumulative Disbursements 12/20/2018 Page 7 of 8 The World Bank Implementation Status & Results Report Development of systems to prevent forest fires and monitor vegetation cover in the Brazilian Cerrado (P143185) Restructuring History There has been no restructuring to date. Related Project(s) There are no related projects. 12/20/2018 Page 8 of 8