For more information, visit http://www.worldbank.org/prospects October 14, 2016 Taking Stock  U.S. weekly jobless claims at 42-year low; Federal Reserve released the minutes of its September meeting. U.S. th initial jobless claims came in at 246,000 in the week ended October 8 , unchanged from the previous week’s level, which was revised down. The consensus forecast was for jobless claims to increase to 254,000. With the downward revision, the latest reading was the lowest since November 1973 (Figure 1), pointing to sustained labor market strength. Meanwhile, continuing claims, a reading of the number of people still receiving benefits, fell to its lowest level since June 2000. Separately, the minutes of the Federal Reserve’s policy meeting of September 20 -21 showed there was disagreement among members of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) on the state of the labor market. Some members advocated raising interest rates ‘relatively soon’, while others preferred to wait for more evidence of a pickup in inflation.  Euro Area industrial production rebounded in August. Euro Area industrial production rose by 1.6 percent (m/m, sa) in August, more than expected, rebounding from the 0.7 percent contraction recorded in July (Figure 2), the first month after the United Kingdom’s vote to leave the European Union. The rebound was due to an increase in the production of durable consumer goods, capital goods, energy, and intermediate goods, while production of non-durable consumer goods fell.  Japan parliament passed additional fiscal stimulus. Japan’s parliament passed an additional spending package of ¥3.3 trillion ($32 billion) in a bid to revive growth. The additional spending will fund infrastructure investment, enhance welfare services, and distribute cash to low-income earners to bolster consumer spending. The additional spending package follows the Bank of Japan’s decision, at its September policy meeting, to start targeting a zero yield on 10-year government bonds rather than a specific amount of bond purchases.  China’s exports and imports tumbled in September. China's exports fell 10.0 percent (y/y) in U.S. dollar terms in September and imports declined by 1.9 percent (y/y). The trade surplus declined to $42.0 billion, the lowest in six months. Both exports and imports missed expectations. Imports were expected to rise by 1.0 percent and exports to fall by 3.0 percent. The disappointing trade figures were attributed to weak external and domestic demand.  Inflation rose in Angola and Ghana. Consumer price inflation rose further in September in Angola and Ghana, two of Sub-Saharan Africa’s largest commodity exporters. In Ghana, inflation rose from 16.9 percent (y/y) in August to 17.2 percent in September due in part to a higher cost of imports, as the local currency remained weak. In Angola, Sub-Saharan Africa’s second largest oil exporter, inflation edged higher to 39.4 percent (y/y) from 38.2 percent in August, reflecting pass-through of the large currency depreciation. Figure 1 U.S. initial jobless claims were at their lowest level in Figure 2 Euro Area industrial output rebounded more strongly more than 40 years in the week ended October 8th. than expected in August. U.S. initial and continuing jobless claims Euro Area Industrial production Thousand claims Thousand claims Percent, year-on-year Initial unemployment claims (LHS) 4 700 Continuing claims (RHS) 7000 600 6000 3 500 5000 2 400 4000 1 300 3000 0 200 2000 -1 100 1000 Jan-15 Feb-15 Jul-15 Jan-16 Jun-16 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Oct-15 Mar-16 May-16 Jul-16 Aug-15 Sep-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Feb-16 Apr-16 Aug-16 2000 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2005 2010 2015 Source: IHS Markit, Bloomberg. Source: Eurostat. Produced by DECPG. Number 321 | October 14, 2016 Weekly Insight: How Does Recent Credit Growth in EMDEs Compare With Past Episodes of Credit Booms? Elevated credit levels or growth rates constitute a vulnerability for some emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs). Credit to the nonfinancial private sector in commodity-importing EMDEs has been higher than in previous credit booms but its growth has been subdued. In contrast, credit growth in commodity-exporting EMDEs has been near the pace and levels of credit-to-GDP ratios associated with past credit booms. During historical credit booms, credit to the non-financial private sector in EMDEs grew, on average, by more than 6 percentage points of GDP per year. A credit boom is an episode during which the private sector credit-to-GDP ratio is more than 1.65 standard deviations above its trend in at least one year. An episode starts when the deviation exceeds one standard deviation and ends when the credit-to-GDP ratio begins to fall. The average credit boom in EMDEs lasted 1.7 years, with the longest episode lasting five years. Until credit booms peak, current account deficits rose on average by almost 2 percentage points of GDP above their long-run trend but subsequently narrowed sharply. Real GDP rose by 1-2 percent above trend in the two years before the credit boom peaked but, within two years, fell below trend. Within three years of the end of a credit boom, about one-third of booms were followed by deleveraging. (Figure 3). A deleveraging episode is defined as an episode during which the private sector credit-to-GDP ratio is more than 1.65 standard deviations below trend in at least one year. The deleveraging episode starts when the ratio falls more than one standard deviation below trend, and ends when the credit-to-GDP ratio begins to climb. During a deleveraging episode in EMDEs, private sector credit growth contracted by almost 2 percentage points of GDP per year and the private sector credit-to-GDP ratio fell to 35 percent, on average. The average deleveraging episode lasted over 1.4 years, with the longest episode lasting four years. Deleveraging episodes were associated with considerable current account improvements. Real GDP fell, on average, by almost 2 percent below trend during the deleveraging episode. Since 2012, credit levels in commodity-importing EMDEs and credit growth in commodity-exporting EMDEs have been considerably higher than during previous credit booms. That said, credit growth in commodity-importing EMDEs has been well below levels associated with past booms. In contrast, some commodity-exporting EMDEs’ private sector credit and credit growth have been near levels associated with past credit booms (Figure 4). By the third quarter of 2015, private sector credit growth exceeded levels associated with past booms in some oil-exporting EMDEs and China. Figure 3 About one-third of credit booms in EMDEs were followed Figure 4 Recent private sector credit growth in commodity- by at least a mild deleveraging episode. exporting EMDEs has been nearing levels associated with past credit booms. Percent of credit booms Percentage points of GDP 60 2012-2015 commodity exporters Mild deleveraging 2012-2015 commodity importers Sharp deleveraging 20 Median Upper and lower quartiles 15 40 10 5 20 0 -5 0 -10 1 3 5 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 Years Year Sources: Bank for International Settlements, Haver Analytics, International Monetary Fund International Financial Statistics and World Economic Outlook. Figure 3 shows the (cumulative) percent of credit boom episodes followed by mild deleveraging (defined as private sector credit-to-GDP ratio falling 1 standard deviation below the HP-filtered trend) or sharp deleveraging (defined as private sector credit-to-GDP ratio falling 1.65 standard deviations below trend) over 1, 3, and 5 years. The horizontal axis shows the number of years after the peak of a credit boom. Events that are still developing in 2015 are dropped. Figure 4 shows the medians of credit to the nonfinancial private sector and of its change (red diamond) and their corresponding upper and lower quartiles during a boom episode (dashed blue line). “0” is the peak of the credit boom event or the trough of the deleveragin g episode. The solid orange (commodity exporters) and blue (for commodity importers) lines for 2012-15 show the sample means for t=0 at 2015Q3. Produced by DECPG Number 321 | October 14, 2016 Major Data Releases (Percent change y-o-y) (Percent change y-o-y) Recent releases: Fri, 07 October - Thu, 13 October 2016 Upcoming releases: Fri, 14 October - Thu, 20 October 2016 Country Date Indicator Period Actual Forecast Previous Country Date Indicator Period Previous Romania 10/7/16 GDP Q2 5.9 4.2 Italy 10/14/16 CPI (Y-o-Y) SEP -0.1 Czech Republic 10/10/16 CPI SEP 0.5 0.6 Eurozone 10/17/16 CPI (Y-o-Y) SEP 0.2 Hungary 10/11/16 CPI SEP 0.6 -0.1 UK 10/18/16 CPI (Y-o-Y) SEP 0.6 France 10/12/16 CPI SEP 0.4 0.5 0.2 United States 10/18/16 CPI (Y-o-Y) SEP 1.1 Germany 10/13/16 CPI SEP 0.7 0.6 0.4 China 10/18/16 GDP (Y-o-Y) Q3 6.7 Singapore 10/13/16 GDP Q3 1.7 2.1 Malaysia 10/19/16 CPI (Y-o-Y) SEP 1.5 Activity and Inflation (Percent change y-o-y, except quarterly data on industrial production, which are percent change q-o-q, annualized) 2015 2016 2015 2016 2014 2015 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug 1 Industrial Production, sa World 3.2 2.0 2.2 1.3 1.3 1.9 2.1 1.6 0.8 1.8 1.4 1.3 1.5 1.6 1.9 1.4 - Advanced Economies 2.0 0.5 0.7 -1.4 0.2 -0.2 0.6 -0.2 -1.3 0.2 -1.0 -1.0 0.0 -0.4 -0.2 -0.4 - Emerging Market and Developing Economies 4.6 3.6 3.7 4.2 2.5 4.1 3.6 3.4 3.1 3.5 3.9 3.7 3.1 3.7 4.0 3.2 - Commodity-exporting EMDE 0.1 0.2 -1.4 0.6 1.4 1.4 -0.3 0.1 -1.0 0.3 1.7 -0.7 -0.8 0.5 1.8 - - Other EMDE 6.8 5.1 6.0 5.6 2.9 5.2 5.4 4.7 4.8 4.8 4.7 5.5 4.8 5.0 5.0 3.9 4.1 East Asia and Pacific 7.5 5.8 5.8 7.5 3.3 7.0 5.3 5.8 5.3 5.4 5.5 6.3 5.5 6.0 6.1 5.8 6.1 East Asia excl. China 3.0 3.6 5.8 5.5 4.5 3.1 3.7 4.3 2.0 5.5 5.5 3.2 2.0 5.8 6.4 4.9 - Europe and Central Asia 2.7 0.5 2.9 4.2 1.2 0.5 1.3 1.5 1.2 1.6 3.1 1.5 2.4 2.2 1.9 -0.4 0.0 Latin America and Caribbean -0.7 -3.2 -5.1 -6.4 -2.7 0.8 -4.8 -5.2 -4.6 -4.2 -4.9 -4.4 -4.3 -3.6 -2.3 -2.7 - Middle East and North Africa 1.3 4.3 2.6 7.1 4.1 -4.0 5.0 6.1 3.9 6.6 7.0 2.6 1.9 2.3 3.0 - - South Asia 2.6 4.3 5.4 -8.1 4.7 4.4 10.3 -1.3 1.0 0.3 3.5 2.6 -0.3 1.5 3.1 -1.8 - Sub-Saharan Africa -0.1 -1.0 8.3 -4.0 2.9 7.8 -2.2 -2.9 -1.5 -0.8 1.6 -1.2 2.4 4.1 4.5 1.6 - 2 Inflation, sa World 2.1 1.4 1.4 1.5 1.4 1.6 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.7 1.5 1.4 1.6 1.6 1.2 1.2 1.1 Advanced Economies 0.5 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.4 Emerging Market and Developing Economies 3.3 2.5 2.3 2.2 2.8 3.3 2.2 2.2 2.6 2.6 3.0 3.0 3.4 2.8 2.5 2.7 2.7 Commodity-exporting EMDE 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.4 3.7 4.2 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.6 4.2 4.3 4.2 3.9 4.1 3.5 3.4 Other EMDE 2.9 1.2 0.6 1.1 1.5 1.8 1.2 1.1 1.2 1.7 1.6 1.7 1.7 1.6 1.1 1.3 1.2 East Asia and Pacific 3.2 1.1 0.7 1.0 1.1 1.5 1.3 1.2 1.3 1.5 1.6 1.6 1.7 2.1 1.9 1.9 1.7 Europe and Central Asia 1.6 1.7 1.8 1.4 0.7 0.3 1.7 1.4 1.5 1.5 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.1 1.2 0.7 Latin America and Caribbean 3.4 2.7 2.6 2.3 3.2 3.6 2.3 2.1 2.3 3.1 3.4 3.3 3.6 3.5 3.3 2.9 2.9 Middle East and North Africa 2.7 1.9 2.1 1.8 2.5 2.3 2.2 1.7 2.3 2.4 2.6 2.6 2.4 2.2 2.4 2.3 1.7 South Asia 6.8 3.5 2.4 3.0 3.5 5.0 2.6 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.6 3.9 4.6 5.2 5.5 5.4 5.0 Sub-Saharan Africa 4.4 3.9 4.5 4.1 4.5 5.7 4.0 4.4 4.3 4.4 4.6 4.6 6.0 6.1 6.2 6.2 6.1 1 Industrial production is total production (may exclude construction). When data are unavailable, "industral production, manufacturing" and "industrial production, manufacturing, non-durable manufacturing, petroleum and coal products, crude petrolem products" are used as proxies 2 Median inflation rate for each grouping. Trade and Finance (Percent change y-o-y, except quarterly trade data, which are percent change q-o-q, annualized, and international reserves data, which are percent change over the previous period) 2015 2016 2015 2016 2014 2015 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May June Jul Aug Exports, Nominal, US$, sa World 1.1 -11.5 -5.9 -6.9 -12.7 13.7 -12.5 -11.1 -10.1 -11.9 -9.0 -3.7 -2.6 -3.3 -4.3 -6.8 - Advanced Economies 1.3 -11.3 -5.4 -7.6 -5.7 14.8 -11.6 -9.8 -9.9 -9.3 -4.1 -3.7 -0.2 -1.1 -2.8 -5.7 - Emerging Market and Developing Economies 0.9 -11.9 -6.7 -5.6 -23.3 11.6 -13.9 -13.1 -10.4 -15.9 -16.2 -3.8 -6.8 -7.1 -6.7 -8.6 - Commodity-exporting EMDE -4.7 -24.2 -22.6 -14.2 -25.8 15.3 -24.8 -23.5 -21.2 -24.7 -13.5 -16.1 -14.1 -12.1 -13.4 - - Other EMDE 5.0 -3.7 3.1 -1.0 -20.6 10.3 -7.1 -6.8 -3.9 -11.0 -17.0 4.6 -2.2 -3.8 -2.3 -4.8 -1.1 East Asia and Pacific 4.6 -3.5 0.5 -1.4 -25.1 11.8 -8.3 -7.9 -4.3 -13.2 -20.6 5.9 -3.9 -5.3 -4.4 -6.3 -1.8 Europe and Central Asia -0.9 -20.7 -14.8 -9.3 -20.6 19.2 -20.5 -17.7 -14.7 -22.1 -12.9 -13.0 -8.1 -10.6 -3.9 -8.5 - Latin America and Caribbean -0.8 -11.9 -8.8 -11.1 -5.4 4.5 -11.9 -11.7 -11.5 -11.4 -3.7 -9.1 -5.3 -2.1 -8.4 -7.9 - Middle East and North Africa -5.1 -26.3 -15.4 -8.1 - - -25.2 -24.2 -22.1 -22.7 - - - - - - - South Asia 4.0 -4.7 -10.8 10.5 4.7 -4.1 -1.5 -8.9 -5.4 -3.0 4.2 -0.3 0.9 -0.4 -1.3 - - Sub-Saharan Africa -6.2 -27.1 -26.7 -21.0 -38.6 - -28.7 -28.3 -29.1 -26.4 -22.7 -24.4 - - - - - Imports, Nominal, US$, sa World 1.2 -12.6 -5.0 -7.1 -14.2 9.4 -13.3 -10.4 -11.2 -11.7 -5.3 -7.5 -5.9 -2.5 -5.3 -9.8 - Advanced Economies 2.1 -12.5 -4.3 -7.4 -9.5 7.4 -12.0 -8.9 -11.3 -9.7 -2.7 -6.7 -4.1 -2.0 -4.8 -8.6 - Emerging Market and Developing Economies -0.4 -12.8 -6.1 -6.6 -21.8 13.7 -15.5 -12.8 -11.0 -15.1 -9.6 -8.6 -9.0 -3.2 -5.7 -11.5 - Commodity-exporting EMDE -2.5 -14.9 -9.9 -12.3 -17.5 -1.2 -16.9 -15.8 -17.0 -18.1 -15.2 -13.4 -13.4 -9.5 -8.3 - - Other EMDE 0.9 -11.6 -4.0 -3.4 -25.1 19.0 -14.8 -11.1 -7.6 -13.3 -6.8 -6.5 -7.6 -0.9 -5.3 -11.1 3.1 East Asia and Pacific -0.5 -13.1 -4.4 -1.0 -29.7 24.4 -18.1 -8.7 -8.3 -16.6 -11.0 -5.3 -8.2 0.9 -6.2 -10.9 6.4 Europe and Central Asia -3.7 -20.7 -7.8 -9.0 1.9 9.9 -19.0 -18.5 -18.0 -15.0 -5.1 -3.8 -3.4 -1.8 0.5 -10.1 - Latin America and Caribbean -0.7 -9.9 -4.3 -15.4 -15.8 3.0 -12.6 -11.0 -15.7 -16.3 -9.9 -14.6 -10.0 -6.3 -9.0 -16.0 - Middle East and North Africa 3.0 -6.3 -8.8 -5.1 - - -5.5 -11.9 -9.1 -13.0 - - - - - - - South Asia 1.1 -13.2 -2.0 -13.0 -30.2 1.8 -18.0 -25.1 -3.4 -6.9 -3.5 -18.9 -18.8 -9.4 -7.0 -14.4 -10.2 Sub-Saharan Africa 2.0 -7.4 -17.5 -9.8 - - -14.1 -9.7 -12.0 -18.8 - - - - - - - 1 International Reserves, US$ World -1.3 -5.8 -2.1 -2.7 0.1 0.6 -0.1 -1.6 -1.0 -1.0 0.0 1.1 0.6 -0.5 0.4 0.2 - Advanced Economies 0.2 2.2 0.4 -0.6 2.3 1.1 -0.3 -1.0 0.7 0.4 0.2 1.6 0.7 0.0 0.5 0.2 - Emerging Market and Developing Economies -2.0 -10.0 -3.4 -3.9 -1.2 0.3 0.1 -2.0 -2.0 -1.8 -0.1 0.7 0.6 -0.7 0.4 0.1 - Commodity-exporting EMDE -6.5 - -2.2 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - Other EMDE 0.7 -10.2 -4.0 -4.4 -1.7 0.4 0.4 -2.3 -2.6 -2.2 -0.2 0.8 0.6 -0.7 0.5 0.0 -0.2 East Asia and Pacific 0.2 -12.5 -4.9 -4.4 -2.3 0.0 0.4 -2.3 -2.6 -2.7 -0.3 0.6 0.3 -1.0 0.7 0.0 -0.4 Europe and Central Asia -16.8 -5.4 1.3 -3.6 4.3 2.9 -0.2 -1.9 -1.5 0.8 2.0 1.5 1.6 -0.1 1.4 0.3 0.5 Latin America and Caribbean 0.2 -5.6 -2.7 -2.4 0.7 0.6 -0.9 -1.4 -0.1 0.0 -0.2 0.9 1.6 -1.0 -0.1 1.9 -0.2 Middle East and North Africa -2.0 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - South Asia 11.3 11.5 -0.8 1.1 0.9 1.9 0.9 -0.4 0.7 -1.1 -0.3 2.3 2.0 -0.8 0.5 1.2 0.6 Sub-Saharan Africa -10.2 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 1 Total reserves excluding gold are used as proxies when total reserves data are unavailable. Produced by DECPG (Anh Mai Bui). Number 321 | October 14, 2016 Financial Markets 2015 2016 2015 2016 MRV 1 2014 2015 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Interest rates and LIBOR (percent) U.S. Fed Funds Effective 0.09 0.13 0.14 0.16 0.37 0.37 0.12 0.24 0.36 0.37 0.37 0.37 0.36 0.38 0.39 0.40 0.40 0.40 ECB repo 0.16 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.00 0.00 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 US$ LIBOR 3-months 0.23 0.32 0.31 0.41 0.62 0.64 0.37 0.54 0.62 0.62 0.63 0.63 0.65 0.65 0.70 0.81 0.85 0.88 EURIBOR 3-months 0.06 -0.02 -0.03 -0.09 -0.19 -0.26 -0.09 -0.13 -0.15 -0.18 -0.23 -0.25 -0.26 -0.27 -0.29 -0.30 -0.30 -0.30 US 10-yr Treasury yield 2.53 2.12 2.20 2.18 1.92 1.75 2.26 2.23 2.11 1.77 1.88 1.79 1.80 1.64 1.48 1.56 1.63 1.72 German Bund, 10 yr 1.24 0.54 0.70 0.56 0.32 0.12 0.55 0.59 0.51 0.23 0.21 0.17 0.16 0.01 -0.09 -0.07 -0.05 0.02 Spreads (basis points) JP Morgan Emerging Markets 330 426 423 431 478 419 413 442 485 507 443 421 418 418 387 367 361 351 Asia 206 232 233 245 264 227 235 253 268 282 243 224 223 233 210 190 191 187 Europe 287 348 345 311 339 305 294 308 338 359 319 308 305 303 290 282 273 270 Latin America & Caribbean 407 559 560 577 645 551 553 595 662 687 588 559 552 541 496 473 463 444 Middle East 388 471 447 506 555 538 503 512 542 580 545 539 530 545 540 492 493 488 Africa 323 449 425 509 626 548 482 555 644 661 573 546 552 546 494 448 440 437 Stock Indices (end of period) Global (MSCI) 417 399 382 399 395 399 407 399 375 372 395 403 403 399 414 417 418 412 Advanced Economies ($ Index) 1710 1663 1582 1663 1638 1653 1694 1663 1562 1547 1638 1671 1675 1653 1713 1720 1726 1696 United States (S&P 500) 2059 2044 1920 2044 2051 2099 2080 2044 1940 1932 2051 2065 2097 2099 2170 2171 2168 2139 Europe (S&P Euro 350) 1401 1474 1405 1474 1352 1339 1558 1474 1381 1347 1352 1379 1399 1339 1376 1390 1388 1373 Japan (Nikkei 225) 16292 16292 17388 18817 16555 15576 19921 18817 17518 15989 16555 16407 17235 15576 16556 16887 16450 16840 Emerging Market and Developing Economies (MSCI) 956 794 792 794 821 834 814 794 742 740 821 840 807 834 879 894 903 903 EM Asia 457 404 391 404 404 407 408 404 374 369 404 405 400 407 431 442 448 446 EM Europe 297 244 259 244 272 265 263 244 237 241 272 288 268 265 264 269 273 275 EM Europe & Middle East 257 211 226 211 230 225 222 211 202 208 230 243 225 225 227 232 233 234 EM Latin America & Caribbean 2728 1830 1895 1830 2121 2269 1919 1830 1744 1804 2121 2292 2038 2269 2359 2402 2381 2483 Exchange Rates (LCU / USD) Advanced Economies Euro Area 0.75 0.90 0.90 0.91 0.91 0.89 0.93 0.92 0.92 0.90 0.90 0.88 0.89 0.89 0.90 0.89 0.89 0.89 Japan 105.89 121.00 122.06 121.41 115.23 107.96 122.61 121.62 118.37 114.44 112.87 109.57 108.97 105.34 104.09 101.31 101.69 102.98 Emerging and Developing Economies Brazil 2.35 3.33 3.55 3.84 3.91 3.51 3.78 3.87 4.06 3.97 3.70 3.56 3.54 3.42 3.28 3.21 3.25 3.22 China 6.16 6.29 6.31 6.39 6.54 6.53 6.37 6.45 6.57 6.55 6.51 6.48 6.53 6.59 6.68 6.65 6.67 6.67 Egypt 7.08 7.70 7.82 7.88 8.04 8.87 7.91 7.83 7.83 7.82 8.47 8.87 8.86 8.87 8.87 8.87 8.88 8.88 India 61.03 64.14 64.97 65.91 67.50 66.91 66.15 66.54 67.31 68.22 66.95 66.49 66.93 67.29 67.18 66.91 66.74 66.69 Russia 38.58 61.34 63.62 66.17 74.84 65.84 65.01 70.19 77.36 77.23 69.93 66.54 65.96 65.01 64.43 64.93 64.48 62.32 South Africa 10.85 12.77 13.03 14.22 15.83 15.01 14.14 15.04 16.30 15.79 15.39 14.62 15.36 15.05 14.40 13.79 14.01 13.87 Memo: U.S. nominal effective rate (index) 102.2 114.7 116.2 118.1 120.3 117.5 118.3 119.4 121.8 120.7 118.4 116.5 117.8 118.2 118.9 117.8 0.0 119.3 1 MRV = Most Recent Value. Commodity Prices 2015 2016 2015 2016 MRV 1 2014 2015 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Energy 2 118 65 63 54 43 56 55 48 40 41 47 51 57 59 57 58 58 58 Non-energy 2 97 82 81 78 76 81 77 76 75 76 78 80 81 83 82 82 81 81 Agriculture 2 103 89 88 86 85 91 86 85 84 84 86 88 91 94 92 91 90 90 2 Metals and minerals 88 68 65 60 59 62 59 57 56 59 62 63 61 61 65 65 64 61 Memo items: Crude oil, average ($/bbl) 96 51 48 42 33 45 43 37 30 31 37 41 46 48 44 45 45 50 Gold ($/toz) 1266 1161 1124 1107 1181 1260 1086 1076 1098 1200 1245 1242 1261 1276 1337 1340 1327 1315 Baltic Dry Index 1103 711 975 627 363 613 582 510 391 307 390 608 623 608 707 675 826 921 Source: World Bank, World Bank Commodities Price Data (The Pink Sheet), Bloomberg 1 MRV = Most Recent Value. 2 Indexes, 2010 = 100. Produced by DECPG (Anh Mai Bui). Number 321 | October 14, 2016