Public Disclosure Copy The World Bank Implementation Status & Results Report Development of systems to prevent forest fires and monitor vegetation cover in the Brazilian Cerrado (P143185) Development of systems to prevent forest fires and monitor vegetation cover in the Brazilian Cerrado (P143185) LATIN AMERICA AND CARIBBEAN | Brazil | Environment & Natural Resources Global Practice | Recipient Executed Activities | Investment Project Financing | FY 2016 | Seq No: 4 | ARCHIVED on 21-Dec-2017 | ISR30771 | Implementing Agencies: Fundacao de Desenvolvimento da Pesquisa (FUNDEP), Ministerio da Ciencia, Tecnologia e Inovacao (MCTI), Fundacao de Desenvolvimento da Pesquisa Key Dates Key Project Dates Bank Approval Date:28-Mar-2016 Effectiveness Date:22-Jun-2016 Planned Mid Term Review Date:15-Oct-2018 Actual Mid-Term Review Date:-- Original Closing Date:29-May-2020 Revised Closing Date:29-May-2020 Project Development Objectives Project Development Objective (from Project Appraisal Document)

The objective of the Project is to enhance the Member Country’s institutional capacity in monitoring deforestation, in providing information on fire risks, and in estimating related GHG emissions in the Cerrado.

Has the Project Development Objective been changed since Board Approval of the Project Objective? No PHRPDODEL Components Name Deforestation monitoring:(Cost $4.39 M) Information systems on forest fire risk and GHG emissions estimation:(Cost $3.31 M) Project management, monitoring and evaluation:(Cost $1.55 M) Overall Ratings Name Previous Rating Current Rating Progress towards achievement of PDO  Moderately Satisfactory  Moderately Satisfactory Overall Implementation Progress (IP)  Moderately Unsatisfactory  Moderately Unsatisfactory Overall Risk Rating  Moderate  Moderate 12/21/2017 Page 1 of 7 Public Disclosure Copy Public Disclosure Copy The World Bank Implementation Status & Results Report Development of systems to prevent forest fires and monitor vegetation cover in the Brazilian Cerrado (P143185) Implementation Status and Key Decisions This Project is part of the Brazil Investment Plan (BIP) under the Forest Investment Program (FIP). The higher-level objective of the BIP, to which the project contributes, is to promote sustainable land use and improved forest management in the Cerrado, the second largest biome in Brazil and South America, leading to reduced pressure on its remaining forests, reduced GHG emissions and increased CO2 sequestration. This project aims at the systematic and continuous generation of information on deforestation, forest degradation, land use, and the development of an early-warning system for preventing forest fires. Accurate, up-to-date, high-quality information should also contribute to enabling the environment. The Project is acting in synergy with the ongoing efforts and other BIP projects, and will contribute to the achievement of objectives of both the National Policy on Climate Change and the Plan to Prevent and Control Deforestation and Fires in the Cerrado. The project was declared effective on April 6, 2017. The Project has three components: (i) deforestation monitoring; (ii) information systems on forest fire risk and GHG emissions estimation; and (iii) project management, monitoring and evaluation. The project is being implemented by the Ministry of Science, Technology, Innovation and Communication (MCTIC) in partnership with National Institute for Space Research (INPE), Federal University of Goiás (UFG), and Federal University of Minas Gerais (UFMG). To date, 39 consultants have been contracted for the following activities: i) development of tools to customize a modeling platform (EGO Dynamics); ii) development of cartographic bases for the development of a modeling system for Cerrado; iii) web-GIS project to estimate the accuracy and precision of deforestation polygons; iv) time series analysis based on satellite images. These consultants will work for the Project for at least 3 years, and they are needed to develop the Project's technical products under the technical guidance of the Project Coordinators. Considering these consultants, 50 percent of the Project funds have been committed. However, the actual disbursement of these funds will occur gradually throughout the life time of the Project implementation. A technical team has been in the field to gather information for the Fire Ignition, Spread and Carbon Model (FISC) for the Cerrado biome; the monitoring teams have started to analyze images to classify them to generate the land-use map planned for the Project; the fire risk team will start to implement the activities to improve the INPE´s Vegetation Weather Fire Risk; the emission’s subcomponent has started to review their models and adapt them to the Cerrado biome. Activities are a little behind but it is likely to be back on track by the next mission. The project information is available at http://www.dpi.inpe.br/fipcerrado/ In addition, during this past year, some important monitoring information from the Cerrado Biome were produced and made available by the Brazilian Government. These data are complementary to the project efforts and will contribute to the achievement of the Brazil Investment Plan. Brazil has taken actions to improve systems for monitoring changes in vegetation cover in Cerrado Biome and disseminate information at the scale of the entire Cerrado Biome. Overall Implementation: The project overall progress towards achievement of project development objective is still behind schedule, but the project management team has been accelerating project implementation. All subcomponents are being implemented and their implementation pace should be back on track by the next supervision mission in May 2018. The Project started to process its procurement plan through the Systematic Tracking of Exchanges in Procurement (STEP) this FY, and the first PP will be submitted to the Bank once the 2018 Annual Operational Plan has been approved by the Project Committee, on December 18, 2017. Activity Responsible Due date Detailed financial Information to Project partners Fundep Monthly 2018 Annual Operational Plan and 2017 Technical Report Coordinators December 20, 2017 Procurement Plan in STEP Fundep January 12, 2018 Next Supervision Mission All April 2018 Risks Systematic Operations Risk-rating Tool 12/21/2017 Page 2 of 7 Public Disclosure Copy Public Disclosure Copy The World Bank Implementation Status & Results Report Development of systems to prevent forest fires and monitor vegetation cover in the Brazilian Cerrado (P143185) Risk Category Rating at Approval Previous Rating Current Rating Political and Governance  Moderate  Moderate  Moderate Macroeconomic  Moderate  Moderate  Moderate Sector Strategies and Policies  Low  Low  Low Technical Design of Project or Program  Low  Low  Low Institutional Capacity for Implementation and Sustainability  Moderate  Substantial  Substantial Fiduciary  Moderate  Moderate  Moderate Environment and Social  Low  Low  Low Stakeholders  Low  Low  Low Other  --  --  -- Overall  Moderate  Moderate  Moderate Results Project Development Objective Indicators PHINDPDOTBL  Information on deforestation in the Cerrado is regularly made available to the public and relevant institutions (Yes/No, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value N N N Y Date 09-Jun-2017 09-Jun-2017 24-Nov-2017 22-Jan-2020 PHINDPDOTBL  Improved information on forest fire risk is publicly available (Yes/No, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value N N N Y Date 16-Dec-2015 09-Jun-2017 24-Nov-2017 22-Jan-2020 PHINDPDOTBL  Real-time information on potential fire spread in the Cerrado is publicly available (Yes/No, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value N -- N Y 12/21/2017 Page 3 of 7 Public Disclosure Copy Public Disclosure Copy The World Bank Implementation Status & Results Report Development of systems to prevent forest fires and monitor vegetation cover in the Brazilian Cerrado (P143185) Date 16-Dec-2015 -- 24-Nov-2017 22-Jan-2020 PHINDPDOTBL  GHG emissions estimates for the Cerrado available are publicly available (Yes/No, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value N -- N Y Date 16-Dec-2015 -- 24-Nov-2017 22-Jan-2020 PHINDPDOTBL  Government institutions in charge of policy, deforestation control and fire prevention using use the information on deforestation and fire risk in the Cerrado (Number, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 0.00 -- 0.00 15.00 Date 16-Dec-2015 -- 24-Nov-2017 22-Jan-2020 Overall Comments The PDO indicators are on track as the first targets are expected to be achieved in the second year of implementation only. Intermediate Results Indicators PHINDIRITBL  Govt institutions provided w/ capacity buildg to improve mgt of forest resources (Number, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 0.00 3.00 3.00 15.00 Date 16-Dec-2015 09-Jun-2017 24-Nov-2017 22-Jan-2020 12/21/2017 Page 4 of 7 Public Disclosure Copy Public Disclosure Copy The World Bank Implementation Status & Results Report Development of systems to prevent forest fires and monitor vegetation cover in the Brazilian Cerrado (P143185) PHINDIRITBL  Annual deforestation maps on the scale of 1:250.000 are publicly available (PRODES-Cerrado) (Number, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 0.00 -- 0.00 4.00 Date 16-Dec-2015 -- 24-Nov-2017 22-Jan-2020 PHINDIRITBL  Deforestation data on the scale of 1:500,000 is delivered daily to deforestation control agencies and monthly to the public (DETER-Cerrado) (Number, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 0.00 0.00 0.00 12.00 Date 16-Dec-2015 09-Jun-2017 24-Nov-2017 22-Jan-2020 PHINDIRITBL  New fire risk information products are available to users on interactive communication devices (Number, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 0.00 -- 0.00 26.00 Date 16-Dec-2015 -- 24-Nov-2017 22-Jan-2020 PHINDIRITBL  On-line fire ignition and fire spread risk (FISC) data is published on INPE’s website. (Percentage, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 0.00 0.00 0.00 100.00 Date 16-Dec-2015 09-Jun-2017 24-Nov-2017 22-Jan-2020 12/21/2017 Page 5 of 7 Public Disclosure Copy Public Disclosure Copy The World Bank Implementation Status & Results Report Development of systems to prevent forest fires and monitor vegetation cover in the Brazilian Cerrado (P143185) PHINDIRITBL  Off-line fire ignition and spread risk (FISC) model is piloted in selected conservation areas (Number, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 0.00 -- 0.00 4.00 Date 16-Dec-2015 -- 24-Nov-2017 22-Jan-2020 PHINDIRITBL  Independent reports on the quality of the project products (Number, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 0.00 0.00 0.00 3.00 Date 16-Dec-2015 09-Jun-2017 24-Nov-2017 22-Jan-2020 Overall Comments Most intermediate indicator's first targets are expected to be achieved in the second year of implementation only. The indicator “annual deforestation map on the scale of 1:250.000 (PRODES-Cerrado)” is delayed but annual deforestation map is expected to be available in March 2018. Field work for the the off-line fire ignition and spread risk (FISC) model for the Cerrado biome has been done, and the forest fire information system is being improved. Data on Financial Performance Disbursements (by loan) Project Loan/Credit/TF Status Currency Original Revised Cancelled Disbursed Undisbursed Disbursed P143185 TF-A1787 Effective USD 9.25 9.25 0.00 1.27 7.98 14% Key Dates (by loan) Project Loan/Credit/TF Status Approval Date Signing Date Effectiveness Date Orig. Closing Date Rev. Closing Date P143185 TF-A1787 Effective 28-Mar-2016 06-Apr-2016 22-Jun-2016 29-May-2020 29-May-2020 Cumulative Disbursements 12/21/2017 Page 6 of 7 Public Disclosure Copy Public Disclosure Copy The World Bank Implementation Status & Results Report Development of systems to prevent forest fires and monitor vegetation cover in the Brazilian Cerrado (P143185) Restructuring History There has been no restructuring to date. Related Project(s) There are no related projects. 12/21/2017 Page 7 of 7 Public Disclosure Copy