37425 ATOMIC ENERGY IN ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT PANEL DISCUSSION Eleventh Annual Meeting Board of Governors INTERNATIONAL BANK FOR RECONSTRUCTION AND DEVELOPMENT September 27, 1956 A K. S. Venkatraman ATOMIC ENERGY IN ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT PANEL DISCUSSION Eleventh Annual Meeting Board of Governors INTERNATIONAL BANK FOR RECONSTRUCTION AND DEVELOPMENT Washington 25, D. C. INTRODUCTORY NOTE These pages reproduce the informal panel discussion on "Atomic Energy in Economic Development" which was held on September 27, 1956, at the Eleventh Annual Meeting of the Board of Governors of the World Bank. INTRODUCTION BY ANTONIO CARRILLO FLORES Chairman of the Board of Governors THIS SESSION OF THE ELEVENTH ANNUAL MEETING OF atomic and hydrogen warfare are capable of causing. the Bank's Board of Governors will be devoted to We, all of us, hope that the latter will never eventu- an informal panel discussion on the subject of Atomic ate. But we must do more than that. We must bend Energy in Economic Development. our minds and our energies to the task of bringing the I intend to call upon President Black to describe bountiful blessings of atomic energy to mankind the discussion this morning, but before doing so, I everywhere, for by so doing we shall not only effect wish to commend him and his advisers for selecting material progress, but, more important, we shall this important subject, and for obtaining our famous engender a spirit of mutuality and of trust which will guests to present and discuss it. do much to prevent war and, indeed, may abolish that We live in the atomic age. On the one hand, we hear term from the languages of men. of the great benefits that this new technological I wish to now call upon President Black to introduce advance will bring to the world, and on the other our panel discussion on the subject, Atomic Energy in hand, we read of the catastrophic destruction that Economic Development. REMARKS BY EUGENE R. BLACK President, International Bank for Reconstruction and Development N MY SPEECH AT THE TENTH ANNUAL MEETING AT We believe it will be helpful to our member govern- Istanbul last year, I mentioned that the Bank was ments and to the Bank to hear first-hand about the following the subject of atomic energy with interest great potentialities of the peaceful use of the atom; and that we would continue to keep ourselves in- how member countries with intensive programs for formed on developments. Today we are going to hear the development of atomic power are progressing with about recent advances in this field from four leading the technical problems involved; what are the pros- experts: Admiral Lewis L. Strauss, the Chairman of pects of international cooperation in this field, and the United States Atomic Energy Commission; Sir how, as a result of their experience, they view the Edwin Plowden, the Chairman of the United Kingdom economic possibilities of this new source of energy. Atomic Energy Authority; Sir John Cockcroft, the Now, the Bank is not interested in atomic power Director of the Atomic Energy Research Establish- as an academic exercise. We are not an academic or ment at Harwell, England; and Mr. W. Kenneth research institution. We are an international develop- Davis, the Director of the Reactor Division of the ment bank whose activities are directed towards United States Atomic Energy Commission. aiding our member countries to develop their economic On behalf of the Bank, I should like to express our strength through the establishment of well based appreciation of the readiness of these eminent and policies and practices so that they may make the best very busy gentlemen to put their knowledge and use of their investment and other resources. experience at our disposal. Experience in modern technology teaches us that 3 what is today but a gleam in the eye of a scientist or the upper and the lower limits within which nuclear engineer is tomorrow's investment. So if we are to power can best be economically exploited and, as a provide sound advice to our members, we must, as it result, shall be able better to assess the place of this were, look over the shoulders of the scientists and new energy resource in our new economic planning. engineers who are developing today what will be the I am glad to know that in our audience today is subject of tomorrow's investment. Professor Francis Perrin, who is the High Commis- We are following atomic energy developments also, sioner of the French Atomic Energy Commission. I because over thirty-six per cent of our development hope we shall have the pleasure of hearing from him lending has been for electric power projects. We in our discussion. already have a very large stake in conventional power I would like now to present to you the Moderator and this stake is continuously growing. We are of our Panel. He is Mr. Corbin Allardice, the Bank's constantly reviewing new projects for hydroelectric Adviser on Atomic Energy. Before joining the Bank and thermal plants, and we must take into account last fall, he was Executive Director of the Joint the possibilities of atomic power as a field for future Committee on Atomic Energy of the United States investment. Congress and he was associated with the United Moreover, the world's demands for energy are States atomic energy program in various official steadily mounting. The world's resources of hydro capacities for over nine years. The Bank is very power and the world's reserves of nonrenewable fortunate in having been able to obtain a man so well energy resources-oil, gas, and coal-must be supple- qualified to act as its eyes and ears in this new exciting mented to meet that growing demand in the coming field. years. I think after hearing from the Members of the I will now call on Mr. Allardice to begin the Panel, we shall, all of us, have a greater awareness of Panel's presentation. PRELIMINARY REMARKS BY MODERATOR, CORBIN ALLARDICE Adviser on Atomic Energy, International Bank for Reconstruction and Development IT IS A SINGULAR PLEASURE FOR ME to have the result in a fruitful cross-fertilization of ideas. opportunity to act as Moderator of this Informal The procedure we will follow is to call first upon Panel Discussion on Atomic Energy in Economic the representatives of the United Kingdom and then Development. In the course of these discussions you upon the representatives of the United States to will no doubt hear some terms and ideas not fully present their prepared remarks. familiar to you. May I say that the terms of finance Following the presentations by the four Panel and banking-and the concepts behind that special Members, the Chairman plans to recognize the language-are at least as novel to most practitioners Delegation of France for the purpose of hearing from in the atomic energy field. Our meeting this morning the distinguished High Commissioner of the French provides a most unusual opportunity for communi- Atomic Energy Commission. The Moderator will then cation between these disciplines, and will, we hope, briefly summarize the discussions. 4 REMARKS BY SIR EDWIN PLOWDEN, Chairman, United Kingdom Atomic Energy Authority IN THE TIME AVAILABLE TO ME I shall say something only eleven per cent-from nearly 225 million tons about the United Kingdom's nuclear power pro- today to about 250 million tons in 1970-and this gram and the conditions that have made it possible. will only be achieved at an investment cost of well I wish also to try to compare British conditions with over £1,000 million. The gap left in our supplies will those prevailing in some other countries. have to be filled by oil, or by nuclear energy, or by a In February last year the United Kingdom Govern- combination of both. Oil means increased imports and ment issued a White Paper called A Program of a severe strain on our balance of payments. As soon, Nuclear Power. This set out a plan for the construction therefore, as there appeared a reasonable chance of of nuclear power stations over the next ten years and nuclear energy becoming competitive in our own indicated the possible developments over the next conditions, we treated its development as a necessity. twenty years. There were, as I shall explain, com- The nuclear power program published last year pelling reasons leading us to work out this program called for the building of twelve nuclear power when we did. They were economic reasons. They did stations by 1965. These were to have a total capacity not spring from any unique or spectacular advance in of about 2 million kilowatts. The program was nuclear technology. Other countries, also, will, I intended to be flexible and it is already apparent that believe, bring nuclear energy into commercial use-as changes will be made in it. In particular, we now hope distinct from experimental or demonstration use- that we will be able to increase the total capacity when it is appropriate to their economic needs and installed by 1965 to a significant extent. economic resources. When this will be depends on a The prologue to our program is Calder Hall-the variety of factors-for instance, the cost of fossil fuel gas-cooled graphite-moderated station which H. M. and of hydro power, and also the availability and The Queen is to open next month. This station- cost of capital. whose gross electricity output will be 90,000 kilo- The United Kingdom is an industrial country. Its watts-is a dual-purpose station. It produces plu- survival depends on the development and use of its tonium as well as electricity. It has not therefore been industrial skill. Its economy has been, and still is, designed in the most economic way for the production based on coal. But the easily worked coal has now of electricity. Moreover, the design was conservative. all been used. Future supplies will only be obtained Three more plutonium producing stations identical to with continually rising costs. it will be completed by 1960. Our rising industrial production will require an In our 1955 program we assumed that most of the increase in energy supplies of perhaps up to forty per stations to be built in the next ten years would be cent over the next fifteen years. Towards this, our based on Calder Hall. We also assumed that, when National Coal Board's plan for developing the coal redesigning Calder Hall for commercial use, industry industry envisages an increase of coal production of would be able to make substantial improvements Sir Edwin Plowden has served as Chairman of the U. K. Economic Planning Board. He was a member of the Atomic Energy Authority since 1954. He was educated in Aircraft Supply Council, and served as Vice Chairman of Switzerland and at Pembroke College, Cambridge. During the Temporary Council Committee of N. A. T. 0. In 1953, the war, he worked with the Ministries of Economic he became an adviser to the U. K. Government on Atomic Warfare and of Aircraft Production. He has served as Energy Organization. Chief Planning Officer and as Chairman of the U. K. 5 upon it. Four groups of industrial firms have now from each ton of uranium we can extract heat equiv- completed their redesign and will submit tenders for alent to that from 10,000 tons of coal. We hope and the first stations to our Electricity Authorities within expect eventually to improve on this figure, but the next few days. The tenders will be for the con- exactly how much heat we shall get from the first struction of stations to be completed by the end of uranium we use is still uncertain. It will depend upon 1960. Present indications are that the engineering the success of our development work. improvements are greater than we felt we could count At present, power station coal costs about £4 per on-though not greater than we hoped for-when the ton in the United Kingdom. If each ton of uranium is 1955 program was published. equivalent to 10,000 tons of coal, the cost of coal It seems likely that the output of the stations will producing the same amount of heat as one ton of be between 200,000 and 300,000 kilowatts each. The uranium will be £40,000. One ton of uranium ore exact figure depends, of course, on the individual will, however, cost only about £10,000. We must design selected. Even though the temperatures reached allow for the cost of fabrication and for the rather in these early reactors will not be very high, the ther- lower thermal efficiency of the earlier nuclear stations. mal efficiency of the stations is likely to be over 25 But, even if we double the cost of the uranium to per cent. We expect that the capital cost per kilowatt allow for these things, you will see that the fuel costs will not exceed £120. To this must be added the of an early nuclear station should be substantially initial investment in uranium fuel; that might be lower than the fuel costs of a coal-fired station in the about £30 per kilowatt. The capital cost of coal or United Kingdom. oil-fueled stations of a comparable size in the United In estimating the cost of power from our first power Kingdom is now estimated at £55 per kilowatt. The stations we have to decide what credit should be taken capital cost of the nuclear stations will, therefore, be for the by-product-plutonium. Plutonium contains substantially greater than that of conventional stations. the same amount of heat as three million times its For this reason the competitive position of the nuclear weight of coal and is of great potential value in the stations will depend partly on the extent to which nuclear power program. It should be possible to feed capital is available at reasonable rates and partly on it back into the reactor that produced it. This would our ability to keep their fuel costs low. reduce the amount of natural uranium required. As Sir John Cockcroft will tell you, there is, Alternatively, and more important, it should be however, plenty of scope for reducing the capital cost possible to use it as a means of enriching reactors of this type of station. Some of the other types that instead of using costly uranium 235 from a diffusion we may be introducing commercially by the end of plant. But there are many detailed problems to be the next ten years will also have substantially lower solved before it can be used. These are being tackled capital costs per kilowatt. vigorously by our scientists. The credit that it is right to take for the plutonium produced will, therefore, W e believe that we are on fairly firm ground in depend both upon our success in developing the best estimating the capital costs of our early stations. ways of using it and on the achievement of cheap and Unfortunately, there are much greater uncertainties simple methods of extracting it in a usable form from when we come to estimate fuel costs. These depend the irradiated fuel elements of the reactor in which it not only on the cost of the ore and of fabricating it is produced. Taking all these variables into account, into cartridges, but also on the amount of heat we can we believe that it is reasonable to assume a credit for extract from each ton of metal before we have to the plutonium by-product equivalent to about 0.1 remove it from the reactor-the "burn-up" as the pence per unit of electricity sent out. scientists call it. Burn-up can be of critical importance. On the basis of the figures I have given, the total We are studying it intensively and we believe that cost of power from our early nuclear stations should 6 be approximately the same as that from coal- or not be attractive where fossil fuels are available oil-fired stations in the United Kingdom. They should abundantly and cheaply. produce power at about 0.6 pence per kilowatt-hour or, in U. S. terms, at about 7 mills per kilowatt-hour. n the criteria I have suggested, other highly These calculations are made using capital charges of 0 industrialized countries without sufficient indige- 8 or 9 per cent-say, 5 per cent interest and a fifteen- nous fuel should not be far behind the United Kingdom to twenty-year life-which is a reasonable life to in introducing nuclear power. We would expect France, assume in United Kingdom conditions and is indeed Germany, and Japan to install significant amounts of higher than is normally used for conventional power nuclear power in the early 1960's. A few commercial stations. stations may also be installed in the same period in This brings us to the question why, if these stations Italy, Spain, and South Australia; perhaps in Ontario, are economic in the United Kingdom, they would not Canada, as well. But some industrial countries will be economic everywhere. What, in other words, are probably wait longer. Scandinavian countries should the economic criteria which determine the advantages not require nuclear electricity until the 1970's, al- of nuclear power, compared with conventionally- though they are now thinking of using nuclear reactors generated power? as a source of heat. The USSR is probably in a similar The first factor is, as I have said, that the capital position to the United States. They will have a number element in the cost of nuclear power is heavy. This of "power demonstration" stations in operation by means not only that sufficient capital must be available 1960; but, with their large energy resources, the needs but also that the relative cost of nuclear power will be of these two countries for commercial nuclear elec- adversely affected in countries where it is appropriate tricity in the 1960's should, we believe, be limited to to take higher figures than those I have mentioned for a few special areas. the capital charges. In the United States and elsewhere In most of the so-called underdeveloped countries capital charges on power stations are often taken at power is produced in comparatively small blocks, 12 to 15 per cent as against the 8 or 9 per cent I have except where hydroelectric potential is available. A mentioned for the United Kingdom. thermal station of 30,000 kilowatts is usually con- The relatively heavy capital cost-and the low run- sidered a large station. We believe it will be at least ning costs-also means that nuclear power is likely to ten years before competitive nuclear power stations of be most competitive where the stations can be run at this size have been fully developed and tested and are a high load factor-preferably continuously through- available for large scale use. There are, however, some out the twenty-four hours. This can be done only countries such as India, Turkey, and Egypt where a where the stations are used in conjunction with a few large thermal power stations of the order of large electricity distribution system. 100,000 kilowatts have been built or are planned. In The next point is that with nuclear power stations some of these countries one or two nuclear stations there are great economies of scale. The larger they might be constructed in the next ten years. We must are, the cheaper per kilowatt. Probably this will not also bear in mind that the demand for electricity be as true of the later types of stations as it will be of grows so rapidly-it doubles every ten years in many the gas-cooled ones, but even the later types are likely countries-that the size of the stations required is to be competitive first in large sizes. likely also to increase substantially. Finally, nuclear power as produced by stations like In many underdeveloped countries a high propor- the early British ones is unlikely to be able to compete tion of the power is produced by small diesel stations with hydroelectric power-which can usually be of 5,000 kilowatts output or less. A recent analysis of produced for around 4 mills or less. Equally, nuclear the performance of forty of these stations has shown power at the cost of the earlier British stations will that their average load factor was only 27 per cent 7 and that the average cost per kilowatt-hour was about Our own British program is still at an early stage 1.9 pence, or 22 mills. This cost rises to perhaps 30 and is designed to meet our special economic circum- mills at a few remote stations. We do not know yet stances. These, as I have said, are favorable to the use when it will be possible to design nuclear power of simple large nuclear power stations. stations of this small size so that they will be com- In the meantime, both in the United States and in petitive with these diesel costs. the United Kingdom, different types of reactors are One of the difficulties is that the small nuclear being developed, some of which are likely to be more stations are likely to require the use of highly enriched suitable for operation in small- or medium-sized units. fuel. This is expensive. If the small reactor can be I have felt it only right to warn you that so far as designed to burn one-third of the enriched fuel charge we see it, the widespread use of nuclear power cannot before the chain reaction ceases and the charge has to help taking a considerable number of years. I have be replaced, then the fuel cost itself would be 10 mills felt it the more necessary to give this warning because at the present United States costs of $25 per gram of nuclear technology offers such glamorous possibilities uranium 235. that there is a serious danger of assuming that the To beat the average diesel cost of 22 mills which I potential improvements visualized for the future can have just given, capital charges and operating costs be obtained now. Many years will be required for the together would have to be reduced to about 10 to 15 development of the various exciting systems to the mills per kilowatt-hour-let us say 10 mills for the stage at which they can be used commercially on a capital costs alone. large scale. With a load factor of only 27 per cent and capital But, having given my warning, I must also say that charges of 10 per cent, this would require the capital we realize and welcome the challenge to skill and to cost to be as low as £80 per kilowatt. This calculation initiative which the coming of nuclear power brings allows no credit for the unspent fuel. If credit is taken with it. for this and account taken of transport and refabri- In spite of the ifs and buts, on which I have had to cation costs, the effective fuel costs might be reduced dwell, the adding of a new source of power to the by about 25 per cent so that the capital costs could be world's store of wealth is an occurrence of enormous increased to £100 to £110 per kilowatt. It seems significance. likely to be some years before this is achieved. Our British program is flexible, and because of this, we shall be able to take full account of the technical F rom what I have already said, you will realize that development which we know will occur in the next we in Britain do not feel that nuclear power is likely few years. As well as developing our own use of to be used on any substantial scale in the under- nuclear power, we are anxious to do all we can to developed countries for at least ten or fifteen years, promote its development in those countries that can although a few large stations may be built. make effective use of it. 8 T REMARKS BY SIR JOHN COCKCROFT, Atomic Energy Research Establishment, Harwell. S IR EDWIN PLOWDEN has spoken about the United The gross power output of these stations will be Kingdom's nuclear power program, and the raised by a factor of about three to a level of up to expected performance and economics of the nuclear about 300,000 kilowatts, depending on the design. power stations which will come into operation about So the capital cost per kilowatt has been corre- 1960. spondingly reduced. This has been achieved by a The World Bank will also be interested in the number of straightforward engineering developments. longer-term prospects for nuclear power, so I will The first picture (Fig. 1, overleaf) shows you the undertake the more speculative and difficult task of state of the Calder Hall Power Station a few months looking five and ten years further ahead and try to ago. In this power station the heat is provided by two predict how the course of development may proceed. large nuclear reactors. One of them can be seen in the As Sir Edwin has said, our first commercial nuclear center of the photograph. Surrounding the reactor are power stations will be characterized by a high capital four steam generators. On the left-hand side of the cost per kilowatt compared with coal- or oil-fired picture are the conventional cooling towers. There is stations, but fuel costs are likely to be appreciably a further reactor out of the picture to the right. lower, so, on balance, in the United Kingdom they The next illustration (Fig. 2, page 11) shows the are likely to be competitive with coal- and oil-fired general construction of one of the reactors. There is a stations. large kettle or drum in the center of the drawing. This The natural and usual course of development of drum is about forty feet in diameter. It contains the pioneering projects is that capital costs fall rather graphite core and in channels in the graphite core rapidly in the early stages. hang the uranium metal rods sheeted in magnesium The capital cost of steam power stations has fallen alloy. from over £4,000 per horsepower when they were The rods get hot, and heat is circulated from them first invented to about £40 per horsepower today. to the steam generators, one of which is shown as the These figures have been adjusted, of course, for the large cylinder on the right. fall in the value of money. Now, the point of this is that after the experience of A rather similar fall has occurred for land-based oil building the Calder Hall reactor and in particular in engines, the cost per horsepower falling from about developing the experience of building up this very £100 in 1900 to about £10 by 1940, quite a sub- large pressure drum on the site, we found that it was stantial fall. possible to increase the thickness of steel forming the We will achieve a first stage in this reduction in cost pressure drum, which could be welded on the site, by in going from the pioneering Calder Hall Station to about 50 per cent. the first commercial station for the Central Electric This meant that in the next models of the reactors Authority. for the Central Electric Authority, we could increase Sir John Cockcroft, Director of the U. K. Atomic Energy a Chevalier of the Legion of Honour, and was awarded, Research Establishment at Harwell, was educated at the with his colleague Professor Walton, the Nobel Prize for University of Manchester, and St. John's College, Cam- physics in 1951. During the war, he was Chief Super- bridge. His work in the field of physics has won inter- intendent, Air Defense, Research and Development national acclaim. Among his degrees and honors are Establishment of the Ministry of Supply, and Director of included the Royal Medal of the Royal Society, the the Atomic Energy Division of the National Research Faraday Medal, and the U. S. Medal of Freedom. He is Council of Canada. 9 U7 Fig. 1. Calder Hall Nuclear Power Station. the diameter of the core. This, of course, increases the The result of all these rather modest steps has been amount of heat which can be developed. that we have achieved, or expect to achieve, signifi- Secondly, owing to the peculiar character of nuclear cantly increased output. power stations, it means that heat can be developed We think that this normal course of engineering more uniformly across the core so that we get further development by straightforward and fairly obvious gain in that way. steps might well lead to a still further reduction in Then, finally, because the thickness of the pressure capital cost in the next models which we expect will drum can be increased, the pressure of the gas which be built eighteen months later. is used to circulate the heat can be increased about Beyond this we can foresee the possibility of a more 50 per cent. That allows for more heat to be extracted substantial reduction by taking a bigger jump, by from each ton of uranium metal or from each unit of increasing the temperature of operation of the reactor volume of the core. fuel elements by about 1000 Centigrade. This may It has also been possible to make improvements in require a change in the materials used for sheathing. the shape of the fuel elements by changing the shape We may change from a magnesium alloy to a beryllium of the surfaces to give greater heat extraction possi- alloy. The development work we have been doing for bilities, and also to increase the temperature of the the last two or three years has shown this is likely to fuel elements slightly. be possible. At the same time we are likely to make 10 further improvement in the shape and heat transfer we say. Sir Edwin said we are expected in our first capabilities of the fuel element. reactors to extract from each ton of uranium the heat We believe, therefore, that by a combination of equivalent of 10,000 tons of coal. Now, this limit is these steps, and provided that the consequential set by the fact that, as the nuclear chain reaction development problems are also solved by 1960, we proceeds, the uranium 235 in the fuel is burned, but may obtain a further increase in the heat rating, that it is partially replaced by plutonium, which is a good is, the amount of heat by unit volume of the core, by secondary fuel. In other words, there is regeneration. a factor of, say, two. So, therefore, we feel there is a Then the waste products of fission accumulate and prospect of capital cost falling towards the cost of tend to damp out the chain reaction, so after a time fuel-fired stations by 1965. At any rate, this is our when the heat extraction has reached its limit, we objective. have to change the charge. We can send the fuel to a Fuel costs are the other important component of chemical separation plant; we can extract the plu- costs. If we adopt more expensive sheathing materials tonium, and we can extract the depleted uranium. In this will increase fuel costs. On the other hand, it the first stage of our program we may stockpile those seems likely that the primary cost of uranium may fall products for a time, but later we will expect to recycle somewhat, and just about offset that. all the plutonium as is shown in stage 2 of the diagram The main prospect for decreasing fuel costs is, (Fig. 3, overleaf). however, by increasing the amount of heat we can If we do that, then it seems likely that the makeup extract from each ton of uranium, the "burn-up", as feed of the uranium to the reactor will be reduced CHIMNEY FOR COOLING AIR CHIMNEY FOR COOLING AIR OVERHEAD CRANE CONTROL tCHARGE FACE STEAM TO CONVENTIONAL STEAM TURBINIE GENERATING PLANT LOWH PRESSURESTA LO.RSR STEAM U ODORBED OTOR NERAT COOLANT CIRULASN LOLOWERUR Fig. 2. A gas-cooled Power Reactor. 11 Stage I Stage 2 1 TON U^:-10,000 TONS COAL 1 TON U n50,000-100,000 TONS COAL I ii I I HEIA CHEM111AL L1 METAL REA( . HEMIAL MAP[ I.IPII - RARE .:..HEMI.AL StPARA!iON IEARAll0N Fig. 3. Fuel Cycles. about three times. This will mean that primary fuel which has a graphite core in which liquid sodium is costs are reduced by that factor. used to transfer the heat. At the present early stage of On the other hand, we should have to add the cost our study, it is uncertain whether this reactor will of the chemical separation process and the cost of produce power at lower costs in Britain than the refabrication, but since we don't know enough about advanced gas-cooled reactors. However, the United the economics of recycling, all we can say is that we States has done much more work on these systems hope by recycling we could achieve a further reduction than we have and I look forward with interest to Mr. in fuel costs. Davis' views on this question. An alternative way of increasing the utilization of We are also studying for a more distant stage of our the uranium is to burn it in situ in the reactor. This program reactors which aim at still lower costs-say, will be done if the reactor converts its uranium 238 4 mills-but this rather glittering prospect is perhaps fuel to plutonium with a very high degree of efficiency only a measure of our present inadequate knowledge and if, also, we can produce fuel elements which will of the technology of these systems. These advanced withstand the severe punishment they get when they reactors have two main objectives. The first is to stay a long time in a reactor. increase the heat ratings by another large factor, If we do achieve the expected reduction in capital thereby reducing capital costs still more. In principle, cost and make some saving in fuel cost by recycling or this can be achieved by adopting the so-called homo- increasing the burn-up, then in Britain the cost of geneous systems in which the uranium fuel and the nuclear power should fall appreciably below the cost moderator are mixed up. This should allow still more of coal-fired stations by the mid-1960's. In the United effective transfer of the heat from the fuel because the States with higher capital charges this would corre- coolant can have greater contact with the fuel. spond to achieving parity with 7 mill power. We The second objective in these reactors is to reduce should, however, be still far from competitive with the fuel costs to the order of one mill by increasing the hydroelectric power at 4 mills. regeneration of fuel in the reactor, i.e., the production In the United States and other countries other types of secondary fuel. This is theoretically possible, but of nuclear power stations using liquids to transfer the technological development, followed by experience of heat are being energetically developed. The reactors of operation of these systems, is required to confirm this. these systems are smaller and should have lower We certainly would not expect to introduce nuclear capital costs than the gas-cooled reactors, but on the power stations of this class into service in Britain other hand they require more expensive enriched fuel. before the late 1960's. We are conducting a feasibility study on one of Thus, 4 to 5 mill nuclear power seems to us to be these reactors, the sodium graphite reactor, a reactor certainly ten to fifteen years away. 12 S ir Edwin referred in his talk to the prospect of capital cost of £90 a kilowatt, 12 per cent interest producing economic power in the so-called under- charges, and a load factor of 50 per cent, and oil at developed countries and said that in several of these £10 a ton, is about 1.35 pence per kilowatt-hour. In countries where power can be taken in blocks of order to achieve parity with oil, the capital cost of the 100,000 to 150,000 kilowatts, nuclear power may be 50,000 kilowatt nuclear power stations would not competitive in a few places by the mid-1960's. have to exceed about £140 per kilowatt. In other countries the problem seems to be more As the size of the power block goes down, the difficult. In Brazil or Pakistan, we are told that the problem becomes correspondingly more difficult. For maximum size of a nuclear power unit which could the production of nuclear power in small blocks, it be introduced during the next decade will be about seems to us that the reactor which uses an organic 30,000 kilowatts. liquid instead of water as a moderator to surround In Brazil, for example, hydroelectric power is the uranium rods, is a promising starter because it available in the urban areas. The new thermal capacity, seems likely to be a system which will be of a low that is, capacity from coal or oil or nuclear stations, pressure and will use less expensive components than required during the next ten years, is about 800,000 reactors moderated by water. However, although we kilowatts, of which about 300,000 could be generated are studying this system, the United States has given in the southern areas from cheap coal. We were told much more attention to it than we have and, therefore, at the Geneva Conference that most of the remainder Mr. Davis should be able to give a better opinion. would have to be generated by small blocks, say, The development of nuclear power in the under- 5,000 kilowatts or below, with an average size block developed countries is being preceded by the applica- of up to 20,000 kilowatts. tion of radioactive isotopes to the problems of In Pakistan, we are told that there is likely to be a agriculture, medicine, and industry. The United States demand for an additional 600,000 kilowatts by 1965, and the United Kingdom are both committed to which cannot be met from planned hydroelectric helping to establish pilot laboratories, one in the development. However, for the time being, there is no Philippines, the other in Baghdad. We hope to national grid and nuclear power can only be taken in discover what contribution radio-isotopes can make blocks of 10,000 to 20,000 kilowatts. to local economies in addition to the already well This small size of the required power blocks in proved applications to medicine and biology. many countries is supported by the statistics of Food preservation and insect control are obvious United Kingdom exports of generator sets. These possibilities, since, in tropical countries, 25 to 50 per show that 60 per cent of the export generating capacity cent of stored crops are destroyed by insects. Two from our country is in units of 30,000 kilowatts and years from now we hope to know more about this. below; however, with the well known doubling time I am very conscious that in making this report most of ten years for electrical loads, the upper limit of the of what I have said will be overtaken by events during range might increase to 50,000 kilowatts by 1965. the next five years. It is certain with the great power Our industry is at the present time studying the of creative technology today, that development will design of nuclear power stations with outputs of about be rapid and capital costs of nuclear power projects 50,000 kilowatts and, in particular, is looking into the will fall rapidly. possibility of building the gas-cooled reactors on an In spite of this, I personally think that it will be a economic basis for this kind of load. long time before nuclear power is competitive with The cost of power of conventional stations with a 4 mill hydroelectric power. 13 REMARKS BY ADMIRAL LEWIS L. STRAUSS Chairman, United States Atomic Energy Commission T IS A PRIVILEGE TO BE here this morning among so It would be convenient if we could take such a many good friends, including my learned colleagues statistic, multiply it by the per capita consumption of on the Panel, Sir Edwin Plowden, Sir John Cockcroft, kilowatt-hours in a year and arrive at the figure of and Mr. Davis. Also, for me, as Mr. Allardice has annual, necessary increase in installed generating indicated, there is a certain nostalgic quality about capacity for the world. this occasion because I do see among you a number It would be a large figure, but not very meaningful with whom I have had pleasant and, I might say, since, as we know, average annual per capita power profitable associations during the years when I was use around the world varies so enormously by regions. in the banking business. There is also another variable in the statistical But I shall resist a strong temptation to indulge in increase in the per capita power demand, even in the reminiscence and confine my remarks to the engrossing highly developed countries. subject of atomic energy and to the broad prospects Will that demand level off or will it continue to and promises of that instrument for good, which an increase? We cannot answer except to draw on our all-wise Providence has placed in our hands at this imaginations or our optimism. juncture in human history. But of one thing we can be fairly sure. The atom It is my hope that I may be able to contribute both holds the hope of remedying much of the world's now and in the future in some modest measure to the imbalance in standards of living and as this imbalance plans which the International Bank is making for its is overcome to whatever degree, as more and more role in the development of the peaceful atom. people enjoy the good things of life, the greater will Before the proceedings of many more meetings of become the world-wide civil use of electrical energy. your Board have passed into your minute books, I feel confident that you will be taking an active part in of this moment, no large scale power plant, ex- spreading the benefits of atomic energy and that you clusively for civil use, generating cheap electricity will be financing 'atomic power projects in a number from nuclear energy, exists anywhere in the world. of countries. Very soon, however, our British friends, as we have It is now nearly noon of this September 27, 1956, just heard from Sir Edwin and Sir John, will have and before the day ends the demographers tell us that dual-purpose nuclear plants in operation at Calder the population of the world will have increased by Hall, producing primarily plutonium for weapons, some eighty thousand souls-eighty thousand more but also in excess of 60,000 kilowatts of electricity as mouths to be fed; eighty thousand more people to be useful by-product. clothed and warmed and sheltered. Here in the United States within the approaching Admiral Lewis L. Strauss is Chairman of the U. S. Atomic President of the Institute for Advanced Study at Princeton, Energy Commission and Special Assistant to President and serves as Trustee and in other capacities for numerous Eisenhower on Atomic Energy matters. Long associated educational and philanthropic institutions. He is closely with, and a partner of, Kuhn, Loeb & Co., he left banking associated with the inception and the development of in 1946 to accept appointment as a member of the first President Eisenhower's "Atoms for Peace" program, and U. S. Atomic Energy Commission. Early in the thirties, is the original proposer of the 1955 International Confer- he financed a pioneering surge generator at the California ence on the Peaceful Uses of Atomic Energy which took Institute of Technology for the purpose of producing place under the auspices of the United Nations in Geneva. radioactive isotopes to be used in cancer treatment. He is 14 year, the nuclear plant at Shippingport, Pennsylvania, It is well to bear in mind, however, that the store designed for commercial power only, will begin fur- of technological knowledge is being expanded so nishing in excess of 60,000 kilowatts of electrical energy rapidly and we are engaged in research and develop- to homes and industries in the area of Pittsburgh. ment on so many different reactor concepts, that a These are truly pioneer projects. We have entered major break-through, putting us at or near the goal upon the era of the beneficent atom and it is no longer of economic nuclear power, could come with some a dream of things to come. But we are just across the suddenness. threshold and adjusting our vision to the broad vistas One has only to look back upon the very recent that are unfolding before us. past to realize how hazardous it is to predict the rate I shall not attempt to recite or even summarize the of progress on this subject. things that already are being done, and will be done It has been less than fourteen years since Enrico in increasing measure, to apply the beneficent atom Fermi and his team of pioneers first harnessed the to medicine, agriculture, biology, and the improvement power of fission in a primitive reactor in Chicago. of the products of industry. These advances are It was only ten years ago that a group of specialists concerned in the main with the rapidly expanding use began serious studies of the first power pile at our of radio-isotopes. laboratory at Oak Ridge, Tennessee. I shall speak only of the prospects of economic and Only seven years ago one of the members of that efficient nuclear power for it is in that area that both group, Captain-now Rear Admiral-Rickover, first challenge and opportunity exist for bankers and for began to work on a project which is today the accepted management, no less than for the scientists and familiar spectacle of the atom-powered submarine engineers who are advancing the technology of Nautilus, a vessel that has cruised upwards of 50,000 nuclear reactor systems. miles without refueling. But here in the United States, because we are And in 1954, only two years ago, we began an fortunately situated in the extent of our reserves of experimental program embracing five different con- cheap conventional fuel, we are some distance away cepts of nuclear power reactors. from our goal of competitively-priced nuclear power. The atom, as a source of commercial power, is up rogress in this brief span of time has been remark- against much stiffer competition here than perhaps F able, and yet only a few years ago some of our most anywhere else in the world with the possible exception experienced advisers counseled that nuclear power for of a few locations where hydro-power is still plentiful ship propulsion was visionary and that it would take and undeveloped. In most other areas of the world, between thirty and fifty years before atomic energy for example in the home of my distinguished British could substantially supplement the general power colleagues on this panel, as they have explained, the resources of the world. road to competitive electric power from atomic energy Since that eventful day in December 1942 when is shorter. In fact, in fuel-short areas of the globe in Prof. Fermi's pile went critical, producing only a few special circumstances a power-producing reactor of watts of heat, we have built and operated in the existing design would probably be economic, even now. United States some eighty reactors of various types You have doubtless noticed that speculations and and sizes, including experimental power facilities with estimates as to how soon we will have economic millions of times the power of Fermi's first pile. nuclear power in this country have resulted in a As early as 1951 an experimental breeder reactor at guessing game, a game in which any number of the Atomic Energy Commission testing station in persons may play; the more the merrier. Some of these Idaho was hooked up to a small turbine and generator estimates are obviously too rosy. Others, in our and has since furnished useful-but far from cheap- opinion, suffer from an extreme of caution. electrical power for that installation. 15 Industrial participation, freed by the Atomic tween Government and industry, and we believe, on Energy Act of 1954 from the smothering embrace of the basis of progress to date, that this approach will government monopoly, is no longer a "study program" achieve our goal within the shortest possible time. inquiring into the feasibility of nuclear power. It has That aim, as I have said, is cheap or, at the very least, become a program of action and bold enterprise. competitively-priced nuclear power. Industry in the United States now plans to install Thus far, we have resisted pressures-mainly some 700,000 kilowatts of nuclear power and to political-to establish artibrary goals of installed finance it through normal banking channels, without kilowatts for a set date, since we are not entered in a calling on the Federal Government for any direct numbers game. We seek to improve the technology of financial support. nuclear power reactors so that we may benefit our Another 400,000-plus kilowatts are included in the own people-and our friends-by providing the most Atomic Energy Commission's power demonstration efficient reactors. program carried out jointly by government and To engage in a crash program of atomic power industry; meanwhile the Commission's own experi- plants in the United States, based on the present state mental program for power reactors has grown from of our knowledge would, we think, be neither prudent the five concepts which I mentioned as of two years nor would it fulfill our obligation to develop the atom ago to nine, as of today. for peaceful purposes. Furthermore-and this is The fact that all of this has taken place within the important-we would be dissipating our very finite short space of fourteen years, and most of it within reservoir of scientific and engineering talent. We the last three years, demonstrates two fundamentals: would be using the limited asset in the building of The anticipated time lag between discovery and primitive plants, when we feel that that resource practical application has been greatly compressed should be applied to the many yet unsolved problems where atom energy is concerned. This, it seems to me, of reactor technology. is a phenomenon of our times. Trained manpower, rather than money or uranium, Secondly, the rapidly increasing demands for is at present the element in short supply in the peaceful additional sources of energy all over the world are development of atomic energy all over the world. It exerting powerful economic, social, and political is fortunate, therefore, that our reserves of coal, oil, pressures on science, engineering, management, and and gas here are recoverable at comparatively low on government, urging speed in establishing the atom cost, and are in such quantity that we have time to as one of the chief sources for meeting those demands. investigate and experiment with the many types of I shall outline briefly the response which the United power reactors. It will take time for the incentives of States is making to this world-wide challenge by way competitive enterprise to lower the costs of construc- of policy; and Mr. W. Kenneth Davis, the Director of tion and operation and to train large numbers of our Division of Reactor Development, under whose nuclear scientists and engineers. able leadership so much of this progress is being made, With these conditions in mind, here is the way we will then tell you about our program in some detail, operate domestically: particularly the technical aspects. The Government, that is to say, the Atomic Energy Our program has domestic and international goals. Commission, conducts in its own laboratories the Our domestic goal, as I have said, is a nuclear power basic research and experimentation necessary to prove development which will justify its financing without that a particular reactor concept will advance the Government subsidy-installations which will be technology of nuclear power and, therefore, that the built and operated by industry-that is to say, by building of certain prototype plants for the commercial private utilities or local public power groups. To production of civilian power has become justified. achieve this goal, we have a flexible partnership be- Industry is then offered the opportunity to build and 16 operate such a plant. We know of no other way to This International Atomic Energy Agency will obtain meaningful economic cost data, since plants represent the fulfillment of the historic proposal laid constructed by Government on a cost-plus-fixed-fee before the world in December 1953 by President basis do not represent the economies obtainable under Eisenhower. However, during the three years of competitive free enterprise conditions. However, if the patient negotiation that have elapsed, and in antici- building of a prototype should be indicated-on and pation of the eventual success of this negotiation, the beyond the experimental plant stage-and if industry United States has pushed ahead vigorously on a should fail to come forward to share in the project program of cooperation with many nations in the with its time, talent, and money, then the Government development of the peaceful uses of nuclear energy. would build the prototype plant. Many of you will recall that the International I hasten to add, however, that industry has not Conference on the peaceful uses of Atomic Energy, failed to accept its role in the concept of partnership, which met in Geneva in August of last year, and but, on the contrary, has responded with enthusiasm reopened lines of scientific and technical communi- to each proposal we have made thus far. cations that had been disrupted for many years, At the present state of the art, of course, the produced one subject of paramount interest among Government bears the cost of much of the research the 1,400 delegates from 73 nations who attended. and development work necessary to build prototype That subject was the progress and possibilities of reactors. However, as our store of technology is nuclear power. But even before the conference, our enlarged, and as research costs become more pre- Government was using the authorization provided by dictable, we anticipate that industry will assume this the Congress in the Atomic Energy Act of 1954 for expense as it does in other fields of industrial develop- inaugurating a system of bilateral agreements of ment. In fact, it is already beginning to do so. cooperation between nations interested as we are in There are a number of areas related to reactor the civil uses of atomic energy. development where we expect to encourage industry As of today, we have negotiated 39 research or to take over work heretofore done by the Government, power agreements with 37 nations. These areas include the handling and disposal of radioactive wastes; the development and production he so-called "research bilateral agreements" pro- of new and improved reactor materials, such as Tvideforthe exchange ofunclassified information and beryllium and zirconium; the design and manufacture for assistance in the development of a nuclear research of fuel elements, and the chemical processing necessary program, including the supply of enriched uranium to separate the fission products from spent fuel fuel for research reactors. A number of countries have elements. contracted for, or are negotiating for, the design and This outlines the philosophy of our domestic construction of such reactors. At the suggestion of nuclear power program. We believe it will enable us President Eisenhower last year, we have worked out to continue to make important contributions to the a procedure in which up to $350,000 in each case can development of atomic power throughout the world. be granted by the United States for a research reactor I will now turn briefly to the aspects of the program project in a country having an Agreement for Co- in the United States toward international cooperation. operation. Four grants have already been arranged; During this past week, as you know, there opened others are in advanced stages of negotiation. at the United Nations in New York a conference of This activity has a direct bearing on nuclear power 81 Governments, and from that conference we hope development, since it provides nations with an will come agreement on the charter and working plans indispensable tool for training their own nuclear for an International Agency designed to promote the scientists and engineers in what will become their own peaceful uses of atomic energy. atomic power industry. 17 Seven of the agreements that I mentioned provide in many areas of the world there is immediate pressure specifically for assistance in developing nuclear power to obtain new sources of energy. A number of these programs. These so-called "power bilaterals" would areas must import, in whole or in large part, the coal have little meaning unless nuclear fuel was available. and oil necessary to keep their economies moving In fact, the one question most persistently asked even at current levels. towards the close and after the Geneva Conference A new source of power in some of these areas was, "When, and on what terms, will enriched fuel be would not only be a base for expanding technology, available for power reactors?" but also for elevating living standards. There are, as President Eisenhower answered this question of we have already noted, some communities abroad availability of fuel on February 22 of this year when where even now the difference between the cost of he designated 40,000 kilograms-40 metric tons-of power from conventional fuels and nuclear fuels is uranium 235, to be used as needed, primarily for fuel small or nonexistent. in power reactors in our own country and abroad. Unfortunately, those countries which do not have The allocation was 20,000 kilograms for civil uses in sufficient power to insure a relatively good standard the United States, and 20,000 kilograms for our of living, or to support adequate industrial production, friends overseas. also frequently lack economic strength to undertake The Atomic Energy Commission is presently making the installation of a nuclear power system without a comprehensive study of additional information re- financial help. These may be among the first projects quired by nations seeking to estimate the cost of to come before you. nuclear plants to be fueled with uranium 235. We are Such countries, however, may be found to have aware that the surveys made by the Bank on the resources of uranium or other ores and no means for potentials of nuclear power have emphasized the exploration, mining, or the building of mills for the importance of this information. extraction of the metal. These circumstances might I hope that this data, including a pricing schedule, furnish security and sources of sinking funds for will be available in the near future. And while it is long-term loans for power purposes. impossible for me to forecast this schedule this morning, I think that the example set by our announce- jn summation, I think it is apparent that there will ment at Geneva last year, where we said that the price I be a large demand for nuclear power in other parts of schedules there advanced were calculated so as to net the world before it becomes generally economic in the us neither loss nor profit, may serve as the pattern. United States. The acceleration of experience and the This would be in keeping with the spirit of President accumulation of data from the versatile programs Eisenhower's program of developing the atom for now being pursued here will continue to point the peace. way to reduced costs. The technical and financial In collaboration with Great Britain and Canada, resources of each country will have to be weighed in we have made available an enormous amount of determining when nuclear power is economically technical information, much of which is related to justifiable. nuclear power development. And most of this has Judging by the progress that has been made in the occurred within the past two years. Much more past few years here in the United States, and the information, I am sure, will be released as time passes. growing capacity of many nations to operate nuclear These are a few of the highlights of our program power systems, there should be a sound market for for international cooperation in developing useful nuclear power installations within the near future. economic power from the energy in the nucleus of And I would emphasize the word sound. the atom. What I assume may make this information It seems to me, gentlemen, that a major role is of particular interest to you gentlemen is the fact that indicated for the Bank. 18 REMARKS BY W. KENNETH DAVIS, Director, Division of Reactor Development, U. S. Atomic Energy Commission IT IS A PLEASURE to have an opportunity to discuss natural uranium reactors may prove more desirable before this distinguished audience the power than enriched reactors in some instances, and prefer- reactor program of the United States. ences as to reactor types which may be dictated by Our Chairman, Admiral Strauss, has told you geographical locations. something about the policies and objectives of our Our power reactor program can be considered as program and how it relates to our need for energy in going through three development phases which follow the United States and to our international position. one another in logical sequence. The first is explora- I would like to outline the program we now have tory, dealing with basic research and development in under way and perhaps make a few observations with such fields as metallurgy, physics, chemistry, and heat respect to the future. transfer. The second phase is the reactor experiment. In considering the United States reactor develop- In this phase, a relatively small reactor is built and ment program, two factors should be kept in mind. operated to prove the technical feasibility of a concept. The first is our long-range objective of economically Information is gained concerning such items as reactor competitive nuclear power in this country. This goal and systems stability, control characteristics, actual is difficult to achieve because we have adequate corrosion rates, and mechanical component behavior. supplies of relatively cheap fuel as well as large, The third phase is the prototype phase. In this stage efficient, and economical conventional generating of development, large-scale reactors are built pri- plants. In developing economic nuclear power we marily for the purpose of demonstrating the economics must, therefore, seek levels of efficiency beyond those of a certain system. While the prototype may not be which would suffice in most other areas of the world. economical itself, it will point the way toward im- The second consideration is that we have no reason provements which will, in turn, lead to truly eco- to believe that any single type of reactor system will nomical power. In addition, the prototype will give satisfy the variety of our needs. As a consequence, we experience in the operation of a nuclear power plant are investigating many technical approaches to which must meet certain commitments as to delivery nuclear power. While this variety of approaches is of power on demand. partially attributable to the fact that we do not yet Perhaps a fourth stage, that of full-scale commercial know which reactor concepts are the best, many other utilization, should be included, but I think this might and equally important factors have influenced our more logically be considered as an ultimate objective program. For example, among these are the need for rather than as a development phase. nuclear power plants in a wide range of generating All concepts proceed through these phases, unless capacities; the need for a balance between "burners", they are eliminated along the line as unsuccessful or "converters" and "breeders"; the possibility that as lacking promise. The selection of concepts promis- Mr. W. Kenneth Davis is head of the Reactor Development of Technology; he was Assistant Director of the MIT Division of the U. S. Atomic Energy Commission, and in School of Chemical Engineering Practice, and Professor that capacity he directs the Commission's programs for of Engineering at the University of California at Los nuclear reactor development in the fields of naval and Angeles. Immediately prior to joining the Atomic Energy aircraft propulsion and military and civilian power. He Commission, he was Manager of Research for the Cali- was born in Seattle, Washington, and was educated at the fornia Research and Development Company, which was University of California and the Massachusetts Institute engaged in work for the Atomic Energy Commission. 19 ing enough to be carried through successive phases of * An organic moderated reactor experiment development is one of the more difficult tasks faced which will produce 16,000 kilowatts of heat. This is also scheduled for completion by those administering a development program of in 1957 at the National Reactor Testing this nature. Station in Idaho. The Commission has assumed the responsibility of *An experimental fast breeder reactor with providing the basic technology for power reactor 17,500 electrical kilowatts capacity. This development. This work is complicated and costly, reactor is planned for operation beginning and the results are often uncertain. The design and in 1959. construction of the prototype or demonstration * Three aqueous homogeneous circulating reactors is another matter. Here the emphasis is on fuel reactors. One of these is being built economics and reduction of costs. We know of no at Oak Ridge National Laboratory and is. scheduled to be in operation by next Feb- better way to achieve this end than to bring to bear ruary. The output will range from 5,000 normal business incentives. Hence, we have encour- to 10,000 thermal kilowatts. aged both the reactor designers and builders and the The other two reactors of this type are smaller systems. One will have an output utility companies, to accept the primary responsibility of 1,300 thermal kilowatts and the other in the construction of these prototype reactors. We 2,000 thermal kilowatts. They should be have insisted on limited and well-defined amounts of in operation at Los Alamos Scientific assistance by the AEC. This is not because we wish to Laboratory by the end of this year. reduce our cost, but because we believe this leads to * A sodium-cooled, graphite-moderated re- real progress on cost reductions. There is increasing actor experiment of about 7,500 electrical kilowatts output. This reactor is being evidence of the desire on the part of the industry to constructed by Atomics International, Di- move into the field of nuclear research and develop- vision of North American Aviation, under ment. We have encouraged such participation in the contract to the AEC, and should be oper- development of new reactor concepts which industrial ating late this year. groups may have originated, and in as wide a variety of feasible approaches as possible. The reactor experiments we have under way are but one phase of our program. We are also going ahead with studies of a number of more advanced concepts. W e may theorize as much as we will about reactor One such study is for the design of a circulating liquid possibilities, but theory is of most value when put metal fuel reactor to have an output of 5,000 to 10,000 to the test of an experiment. It also seems clear that the kilowatts of heat. Another study is being made of the need for different sizes of reactors in different locations closed cycle gas system with a view toward the design could most likely be satisfied by more than one type of an efficient high-temperature unit. of reactor. We are also initiating further studies of the feasi- I will attempt to appraise the various possibilities bility of heavy water, natural uranium reactors as at hand. power sources. The choice between reactors utilizing We now have several power reactor experiments enriched uranium and those requiring only natural under construction: uranium is a marginal one, and we believe the natural uranium type warrants further serious study. I have not mentioned the pressurized water system An experimental boiling water reactor. in the same category as the other reactors since it has This unit will have an output of 5,000 elec- already demonstrated its applicability and, to some trical kilowatts and should be in operation early in 1957 at the Argonne National extent, the economical limits within which it can Laboratory. operate. Each of the reactor systems I have mentioned 20 Fig. 4. PWR Power Station at Shippingport, Pennsylvania. has certain advantages and disadvantages which must inherent in a pressurized water system, namely, high be carefully weighed when considering economic initial cost and low steam temperature. The first feasibility and the prospect of early utilization. We disadvantage can be overcome in a very large instal- still do not have sufficient economic data on the basis lation in which the high cost of the reactor may be of which any of these concepts can be eliminated, spread over a large generating capacity. The PWR However. I will point out briefly the advantages and under construction at Shippingport, Pennsylvania, disadvantages of each type. will provide further operating experience on this type The pressurized water reactor (PWR) has one large of system. The generating capacity of this unit, the advantage just now-we know how to build and first large nuclear plant in the country, will initially operate it and we can make reasonable estimates of be 60,000 electrical kilowatts, and it is expected that initial investment. From a technical point of view, as improvements in performance may raise this capacity well as that of public safety, it is one of the more to 90,000 electrical kilowatts. Financing is a joint stable and inherently safe systems of which we have AEC-industry affair. I have two photographs which knowledge. Although we are most familiar with this will give you some idea of what we are doing here type of reactor, there remain two major disadvantages (Figs. 4, above, and 5, overleaf). 21 The reactor having inherent safety characteristics this type to applications in medium capacity gene- most similar to those of pressurized water systems is rating stations. However, one present disadvantage of the boiling water reactor. In this reactor we permit the boiling water reactor is the possibility of radio- boiling to take place in the reactor core. The steam is active contamination of the steam, in turn, leading to then formed at essentially the temperature and pres- contamination of the turbine machinery. A possible sure at which it will be used. It is easy to see that safeguard against this condition involves the expense since the reactor vessel must operate at a pressure of of an intermediate heat exchanger. only about 600 pounds instead of 2,000 pounds to The initial costs due to expensive pressure vessels deliver 600 pound steam to the turbines, the fabrication can also be avoided by utilizing some coolant other cost of the reactor vessel will be much less than in a than water. One alternative is the use of sodium as a pressurized water system. This saving in initial cost heat transfer medium. In a reactor of this type we will not be confined to the reactor vessel alone but can achieve high temperature at essentially atmos- will extend to a large part of the piping system. The pheric pressure. This high temperature may permit resulting decrease in initial investment should lend the generation of steam at temperature and pressure Fig. 5. PWR Power Station under Construction. 22 or ;Vu Fig. 6. Sodium Reactor Experiment at Santa Susana, California. comparable to conditions found in the best fossil fuel need for expensive fuel element cladding may be generating stations. These advantages are offset to eliminated. The experiment now under construction some extent by the necessity for more expensive will give data on radiation stability of the coolant and containment materials, but it is still likely that the on the costs associated with the cleaning of the original cost of a power plant of this type will be no organic stream. These questions will have to be more than that of a boiling water system. The major answered in order to evaluate the promise of reactors economic advantage would then have to come from utilizing organics. increased operating efficiency. A sodium-cooled sys- In all of the reactors I have been talking about, a tem may prove to be quite flexible as to the power rather severe limitation on utilization of fuel is range over which operation will be economical. Both imposed by fuel element damage and poisoning due graphite moderated and fast reactors of this type are to fission product build-up. The necessity for regular being developed (Fig. 6, above). shutdown to allow fuel element replacement is an As an alternative to the use of sodium as a coolant, additional obstacle to efficient operation. This an experimental reactor is under construction in obstacle may be overcome by using a fuel which is which an organic material will be used as moderator not subject to irradiation damage, which may be and coolant. It is expected that this material will not enriched while the reactor is in operation, and from only allow a substantial reduction in pressure vessel which fission products may be removed without costs but, since the material is essentially noncorrosive, reactor shutdown. These requirements are met by a cheap construction materials may be used and the circulating fuel reactor (Fig. 7, overleaf) and, as I 23 system are obvious and, while the chemical processes are different, the economic advantages occurring from fuel stability and continuous cleaning and re-enriching will be the same as in the aqueous homogeneous type. Reduction in initial construction costs should allow -- the economic operation of smaller plants as well as those of higher capacity. Furthermore, since the fuel has no adverse reaction with water, there is no danger from this point in using such a system in a ship or - submarine. The gas-cooled reactor, especially when operating in connection with a closed-cycle gas turbine, appears in some respects to offer possible cost advantages over other types. Some of the potential advantages are light weight, compact arrangement, ease of con- tainment, low corrosion rates, and high efficiency. But there are many problems associated with the construction of such a system. Among them are the inherently difficult problem of control and stability, Fig. 7. Homogeneous Reactor Experiment at and the fabrication of satisfactory fuel elements. At Oak Ridge, Tennessee. the present stage of gas turbine development, this mentioned previously, there are two distinct circulating reactor type seems to be limited to the lower capacity fuel reactor types under development. In the aqueous sizes-up to perhaps 20,000 electrical kilowatts. Our homogeneous reactor the uranium may be in the form techniques are improving and we feel that in the of uranyl nitrate, uranyl sulfate, or uranyl phosphate reasonably near future we may be able to begin in a circulating water solution. The water acts both as construction of a gas-cooled reactor experiment. We a moderating medium and as a heat transport material. are interested in an efficient gas cycle and not in a This system must be highly pressurized. The corrosion unit where inefficient, low-temperature operating problem in all of these aqueous reactors is severe but conditions lead to high operating costs. appears capable of solution. Fuel inventories are small Perhaps I have seemed to over-emphasize the in these systems. The cost, a very high one, of re- problems which remain to be solved, and the great processing used fuel elements is eliminated, which strides which must be made if nuclear power is to contributes to the overall operating economy of the become competitive. It goes without saying that reactor. problems cannot be solved before they are known. A In the second circulating liquid metal-fueled reactor, few years ago we could only imagine what problems we may find the solution to two major problems-high might be faced. We now know that some of these core pressures and corrosion problems. The fuel imagined problems could have been ignored, but proposed for this system, a uranium-bismuth solution, other much more real ones have taken their place. will, we hope, permit the production of high tempera- While we are sure that we have not found all the ture steam while maintaining the core at close to problems, we are confident that the solution of those atmospheric pressure. It is believed that readily we now recognize will move us well along toward our available construction materials may be used for the goal. These problems do not appear insuperable. system and that fabrication will present no serious They will not be solved easily, or overnight, or without problem. The potential cost advantages of such a considerable expense in time and money. The fact 24 remains, nevertheless, that we have identified them, small plant with a capacity of 3,000 to 5,000 electrical and even this knowledge is in itself a major step kilowatts, and the other a full-scale plant with an forward. electrical output of 180,000 kilowatts. These nine I have limited my. discussion so far to the production plants, which should be in operation by 1960, will of electric power from reactors. While this appears to have a combined nuclear capacity of about 660,000 be the most immediate application of nuclear energy, electrical kilowatts. it is not too difficult to foresee the day when reactors While this is indeed an encouraging beginning, it will be used by industry to supply process heat, and should be kept in mind that these reactors will not in the case of the food industry, as a sterilization and be, and are not required to be, economically com- preservation medium. There is also a good possibility petitive with conventionally fueled plants. They will, that radiation from reactors may be used to improve however, serve as prototypes on which to base the such processes as oil refining and to alter and improve design of more economical plants. In some cases, the the characteristics of many materials presently in use. excess operating costs expected during the initial years There is at this time under construction at Brookhaven of operation will be partially offset from payments by National Laboratory a reactor for medical research the AEC for technical and operating data. and therapy. The use of reactors of this type is certain I have defined an efficient nuclear power plant as to become more widespread. being one which, when built and operated under I should like to turn for a minute to the subject of standard industrial financing and operating practice, prototype nuclear power plants. In order to bring will produce power at costs equal to or less than the private industry into the field of power reactor cost of power produced by the best conventional plant development and operation, the AEC initiated the built at the same time and at the same location. Power Demonstration Reactor Program in January It is obvious that in order to meet this criterion, 1955 with an invitation to industry to submit pro- nuclear plants must be improved to the point where posals for the construction of nuclear power plants. no special assistance, under any guise whatsoever, is Encouraged by the response to this first invitation, needed. This does not mean that certain operations the Commission issued a second in September 1955. such as enriching of fuel cannot be carried out by the As a result of the proposals which were submitted, Government. It does mean that these services must a contract has been signed with Yankee Atomic be paid for, at their actual value, out of operation Electric Company covering the construction of a income. 134,000 kilowatt generating station. This will be a pressurized water system and will involve the use of jn an effort to resolve the problems associated with AEC funds for necessary research and development. I the meeting of all expenses out of operating income, Five other proposals have been accepted as a basis a vast number of studies of the economics of nuclear for contract negotiations. They are all of different power have been made in recent years. In the absence types and are scheduled for completion in 1960 and of necessary development, information, and actual 1961, adding another 217,000 kilowatts to the nuclear construction and operational costs, many of these electrical capacity of the United States. studies, if not most of them, must be considered only Additionally, construction permits have been issued as speculation. They have generally arrived at two to two public utility companies and to the General conclusions: Electric Company for the construction of nuclear First, that the particular type of reactor favored by plants financed entirely with private funds. One of those making the study is more practical than other these will be a pressurized water reactor station of types under consideration; second, that this better 136,000 electrical kilowatts nuclear capacity. The reactor can produce power competitively with con- other two will utilize boiling water reactors, one a ventional power plants. 25 Although, taken separately, such studies are of world which need large blocks of power. Another two limited value, I believe that, collectively, they are or three years should see construction begun on plants important since they indicate a profound belief that which will prove to be really competitive in relatively nuclear power can be made competitive with conven- high fuel cost areas of the United States-and fairly tional sources even in the United States where we generally in other areas of the world. The following have a relatively plentiful supply of cheap fuel. five years or so should lead to nuclear power plants While there is no law of nature which says that being started on a generally competitive basis with all power from nuclear fuel must be competitive with except extremely cheap fuels in any area. conventional power, we do know the potential is The situation regarding the course of development present. Certainly, no one has discovered any funda- of small reactors is even more hazardous to predict. mental considerations which would appear to make In general, the economic considerations for a small economic nuclear power unlikely of accomplishment. unit are relatively less favorable than those for a However, many studies and proposals overlook the larger reactor system. development effort required to actually solve the many For this reason, the utilization of small reactor technical problems involved as well as the industrial systems may be generally behind that of the larger effort needed to attain the desired construction and plants. However, it is not unlikely that there may be operation costs. The solution of these problems is a many circumstances in which a small reactor will time-consuming and costly business requiring the have an advantage. imagination and ingenuity of our very best scientists To repeat then, we are moving forward on many and engineers. developmental fronts in order not to overlook any With our present program, we will soon enter an system which may, in time, prove successful as a era in which we will gain a good deal of factual data source of economical power. on power reactor technology and costs. At that time it will be more appropriate to discuss the economics 1n conclusion, I would like to quote from an of such systems and to make predictions concerning linteresting article which I ran across the other day: future costs. Pessimists like Sir Oliver Lodge shudder In any case, the assessment of relative costs of when they speculate on the future. Man is nuclear power in comparison with conventional power not yet spiritually ripe for the possession of cost is a difficult matter even in the United States, the secret of atomic energy, he reasons. Technically we are demi-gods, ethically still depending as it does upon the cost of capital, tax such barbarians that we would probably use rates, load factors, construction costs, and many local the energy of the atom much as we used the considerations. When such a comparison is attempted less terrible forces that almost destroyed for reactor locations abroad, many additional factors civilization during the last war. Others are convinced that the new insight must be taken into consideration. into nature which will be granted when the However, it may be possible to make some general structure of the atom is at last known, and observations based upon our present state of develop- with it the method of controlling its energy, must be accompanied by a spiritual advance. ment and upon our hopes for the future. I believe that Each new discovery about the atom makes large power reactors, construction of which is begun man more consciously part of the world in the next one or two years, will, after completion about him-links him with the stars, which and initial operation, show total power costs some- are themselves composed of atoms, and with the dazzling light of the sun, which springs what above those prevailing in any area of the United from atomic activity-and thus impresses States which can utilize a plant of equal size. But the him with the littleness of his greed and the cost will probably be about the same as that from puerility of his disputes. conventional plants in some fuel-short areas of the This prophetic quotation is from an article, Atomic 26 Energy-Is It Nearer, by Waldemar Kaempffert in nuclear power with enthusiasm and with optimism, Scientific American. The date-August 1932! The and with the conviction that this vast new source of article deals with the historical importance of the then energy will, one day, raise the standard of living recent work on nuclear transmutations by "two young throughout a peaceful world. While we are not English physicists, Dr. J. D. Cockcroft and Dr. E. T. S. unmindful of the formidable difficulties which con- Walton". It follows an article on the discovery of the front us, we believe that it is not a question as to neutron. whether we will achieve economically useful nuclear We are striving for the development of useful power but, rather, when we will achieve it. REMARKS BY PROFESSOR FRANCIS PERRIN, High Commissioner of the French National Atomic Energy Commission S INCE 1945 France has developed a steadily in- already producing ores which, according to their creasing atomic energy program directed towards grades, are treated in different chemical factories. The the industrial use of this new source of power. This production of uranium in France is fast growing and program has been of a much smaller magnitude than should cover all the needs of this basic material for those associated from the outset with a weapon the probable atomic power production of France, at production program; it was nevertheless large enough least for the twenty coming years. to place France amongst the few countries which are The uranium is highly purified and transformed now building atomic power stations on a really into metal in a factory at Le Bouchet near Paris. industrial scale. Considering that France is not only The Pechiney Company has a production capacity in a medium situation amongst the highly industri- of several thousand tons of nuclear grade graphite in alized countries, but also that she has the responsi- its factory at Chedde in the Alps. A pilot plant for bility for large underdeveloped territories, her the production of heavy water by distillation of liquid experience may be of interest for the future develop- hydrogen will be completed next month in Toulouse. ment of atomic power production throughout the A large research center has been created at Saclay, world. twenty kilometers south of Paris. About 2,500 people, After ten years of activity of the French Atomic including five hundred scientists or engineers, are Energy Commission-the "Commissariat A l'Energie working there. Their equipment includes three re- Atomique"-the atomic situation in France is briefly search reactors, all three fueled with natural uranium the following: and moderated by heavy water from Norway. One Intensive prospecting has led to the discovery of of these has a power of 2,000 kilowatts of heat, and several important deposits of uranium in France and is the first atomic reactor to have been cooled by a of thorium in Madagascar. Four groups of mines are circulation of compressed gas, a technique which will Professor Francis Perrin is High Commissioner of the Sorbonne in 1933 and two years later a Professor. From French Atomic Energy Commission. He was educated in 1941 to 1943 he taught at Columbia University in New Paris at the Ecole Alsacienne, Lycee Henri IV and the York. In 1946 he was appointed to the Chair of Atomic Ecole Normale Superieure, graduating as a Doctor of and Molecular Physics at the College de France. He was Science. He was appointed Maitre de Conferences at made High Commissioner for Atomic Energy in 1951. 27 be extensively used in England and France for power billion in 1965, and between 180 and 200 billion production. Next year a very high flux reactor for kilowatt-hours in 1975. testing materials will be completed. This equipment During the next fifteen years it should be possible is used not only for research but also for training the to satisfy about 50 per cent of the new requirements large number of engineers needed by the growing for power by hydroelectric installations, but from atomic energy industry. 1965 on, the necessary increase in steam power The French program for producing electrical power stations would require large and growing importation from atomic energy is based on the same principles as of coal from the United States, or of crude oil, in the British program: burning natural uranium in addition to what is necessary for the production of double purpose reactors, producing power and gasoline. plutonium, and later, as soon as possible, making use of the plutonium thus produced as supplementary jn order to develop a large and cheap production of enriched fuel in more efficient reactors. I electricity from atomic energy by that time, it was The production of plutonium has started in an decided a year ago that the French National Power establishment situated at Marcoule in the Lower Company, "Electricit6 de France", would build in the Rhone Valley. The first reactor constructed there is forthcoming ten years at least five atomic power an air-cooled, graphite-moderated reactor with a heat stations, one every eighteen months, the construction output of 40,000 kilowatts. The heat evolved is used of each one covering a period of three years. The to produce steam feeding a small turbine, but the construction of the first of these atomic power stations electrical power thus produced-5,000 kilowatts-is will start early next year and should be completed in smaller than the power used in the blowers forcing the beginning of the year 1960. Its site is already the air through the reactor. selected and approved in the Lower Loire Valley, near Real power production will start with a second and Chinon. This atomic power station, although similar a third reactor now under construction at Marcoule. to the two power producing reactors of Marcoule, These two reactors will be identical; utilizing graphite will be more powerful, having in one unit a power and natural uranium like the first one, they will be output of 60,000 kilowatts of electricity. cooled by compressed carbon dioxide and they will The later power stations of this program should have a net electrical output of 35,000 kilowatts each. include technical improvements, and perhaps some of They should be in operation in 1958, constituting then them will use enriched uranium fuel supplied by the the first atomic power station in France. The chemical United States or by the International Agency for plant for the extraction of the plutonium produced in Atomic Energy which, we hope, will soon be created. the three Marcoule reactors will be completed within This might be the best way to prepare for the time the next six months. when it is possible to use the plutonium produced. To give the order of magnitude of the French effort It is not only for the future of European France in this field, it may be stated that the total appropri- that the development of atomic energy may be of ations for the development of atomic energy in the great importance. In overseas French territories or 1956 budget amount to more than $150 million. This associated countries, large populations have a much large investment is justified by the prediction of the too small supply of energy. But it will maybe require difficult situation in which France would be in ten to five or ten years more than in continental France to fifteen years from now if the growing needs for more find there a real advantage to atomic energy over the power were only to be satisfied by the conventional conventional sources of energy. The fact that, in due energy sources. time, practically unlimited supplies of power from The production of electricity in France was 50 atomic energy will be available, according to needs, billion kilowatt-hours in 1955; it should be about 100 anywhere in the world is nevertheless already very 28 important for the industrial development of under- from an economic standpoint. That is why the French developed regions. It should give us faith in the Government will support the construction of an possibility of large industrial plants even far away atomic power station near Algiers only a few years from conventional sources of energy, and it might after the construction of the first atomic power station thus make easier the necessary investments. in continental France. From this point of view, it may be of importance I hope that these examples may be useful for those to build a few atomic power stations in underde- who have to forecast the future development of the veloped regions even before it is directly advantageous world economy. SUMMARY BY THE MODERATOR I SHALL NOT TRY to sum up in a few words the 6. Without minimizing technical problems, excellent individual presentations we have heard. our speakers have, I think, been univer- Nor shall I attempt to give a pr6cis of the individual sally optimistic about the long-term eco- nomic possibilities of nuclear power. On national programs we have heard presented, but I do the short-term, statements were made that think it is possible to distill out some rather meaningful in special circumstances even today nu- basic impressions which I shall state this way: clear power produced from plants of essentially present design would be com- I. That electric power can be produced from petitive with conventionally-fueled ther- atomic energy has already been demon- mal stations. This, I think, means a rela- strated. tively large power plant, in rough terms, 2. Several different power reactor systems probably greater than about 100,000 are under advanced development, but it kilowatts electric capacity. is too early to know which reactor system will ultimately prove best, if indeed there On the basis of the statements made here today and is a single "best". studies we have conducted in the Bank, we believe it 3. The consensus seems to be that much is possible to describe in general terms the circum- more progress has been made in design- stances under which a large nuclear reactor of essen- ing, engineering, and building relatively tially present design might have good prospects for large nuclear power stations than in the producing electricity at costs competitive with that of case of smaller plants. electricity produced from fossil fuels: 4. There seems to be general agreement that the fuel cost component of electric power from atomic energy sources will be less I. The generation and distribution system than the comparable cost components into which the nuclear plant is to be inte- from coal, oil, or gas except in low-cost grated must be large, capable of permit- areas, such as the United States. ting a 100,000 kilowatt or larger plant to 5. Because nuclear stations will require, at operate as a base load unit. least for the next few years, higher invest- 2. The nuclear plant would have to be lo- ment per kilowatt than conventional cated in a country with relatively high thermal stations, their economics de- fossil fuel costs, with poor hydroelectric pends heavily on having reasonably low potential, and with sufficient availability financial charges, and operation at high of capital so that relatively low-cost load factors. money could be obtained. 29 3. The country would have to execute such 5. Until further operational experience has intergovernmental agreements as are nec- been obtained, it would not be prudent, essary to assure a continuing supply of we think, to establish the nuclear plant in fuel, reprocessing and, if necessary, the a system where it would represent a con- import of components, unless, of course, siderable proportion of the total system it has these materials and technical abil- generating capacity. ities at its own command. In conclusion, I would stress a point made clear by all of our speakers. Progress of technological develop- 4. Power rates in the system into which the ment in the atomic field is rapid. What has been said plant would be connected should be flex- here today probably will be overtaken by events in ible enough so that if the nuclear plant the next five years. should cost more than expected or should If we are to be ready to make use of nuclear power not perform as anticipated, the excess cost could be absorbed without a signifi- when it is economic for us to do so, we must now cant adverse effect. begin to prepare ourselves. CLOSING REMARKS BY THE CHAIRMAN OF THE BOARD OF GOVERNORS Y OU HAVE HEARD the very illuminating discussion energy will have great impact on our lives and upon and the able summary by Mr. Allardice. On the lives of our children. behalf of the Board of Governors, I wish to extend You, gentlemen, have made that clear. We thank congratulations to our Panel, our other speakers, and you for taking time from your very busy schedules to Mr. Allardice for a most meaningful and enlightening be with us this morning. As a result of your efforts discussion of atomic energy in economic development. we will all now be better able to judge where atomic There can be no doubt that this new source of energy fits in our own economic planning. 30 WORLD N 巳 I i S У i 4 А �рΡ ! �j 1 i � � � 1 � $ i � �1 1 1 i � � i �б i I � � Ё 1 � I � i I � � 1 �