OVERVIEW 2 35 CHONGQING SPATIAL AND ECONOMIC TRANSFORMATION FOR A GLOBAL CITY Photo: onlyyouqj. © 2019 International Bank for Reconstruction and Development / The World Bank 1818 H Street NW Washington, DC 20433 Telephone: 202-473-1000 Internet: www.worldbank.org This work is a product of the staff of The World Bank with external contributions. The findings, inter- pretations, and conclusions expressed in this work do not necessarily reflect the views of The World Bank, its Board of Executive Directors, or the governments they represent. The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this work. The boundaries, colors, denominations, and other information shown on any map in this work do not imply any judg- ment on the part of The World Bank concerning the legal status of any territory or the endorsement or acceptance of such boundaries. Rights and Permissions The material in this work is subject to copyright. 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Foreword While the economic Chongqing’s strategic location transformation has thus far in the southwest of inland China been enormously successful in positions it as a gateway to eliminating extreme poverty and China’s west, a key connection in boosting shared prosperity, the the Yangtze River Economic Belt. accompanying rapid urbanization As one of the largest cities in the has been extremely resource- world, and with four decades of intensive and relies heavily experience in the delivery of basic on infrastructure investment. urban services and sustainable This type of development puts and inclusive economic growth, Victoria Kwakwa tremendous strains on the Chongqing offers valuable lessons Regional Vice President environment and is unsustainable not just for other cities in China East Asia and Pacific in the long term. Recognizing but globally. World Bank Group the limitations of the current Chongqing’s development development model, the trajectory generally mirrors government has embarked on China’s own transformative China’s remarkable a new model of urbanization pathway. Over the past two economic success is that prioritizes sustainability decades, Chongqing has made inextricably linked to and human-centered urban an impressive transformation. development. Specifically, the the country’s rapid model places emphasis on the Its gross domestic product per urbanization: the better allocation of land, labor, capita has increased 16-fold, from US$544 to US$8,908, and the urbanization rate grew and capital; the goal is to address urbanization rate has doubled, from 31 percent in 1996 the inefficient use of urban from 29.5 percent to 62.6 percent. density that leads to low-density to almost 59 percent In this rapid urbanization process, sprawl, ensure equal access to in 2018. Abundant education and public services for Chongqing has avoided some labor, inexpensive urban and rural residents, restore major challenges faced by first- tier Chinese cities, such as the land, and a massive cultural assets, and preserve each scarcity of affordable housing. boost in infrastructure city’s unique identity. Chongqing’s ample public investments fueled by China’s megacities, including housing provision and land supply local governments’ Chongqing, are a critical part of have allowed the city to absorb this new model of urban growth, more than 10 million new urban drive for investment offering an opportunity to achieve dwellers while ensuring that have formed a a new typology of urbanization housing costs remain affordable. conducive environment that is driven by efficiency, Structurally, Chongqing has for such rapid growth. sustainability, and inclusiveness. successfully transitioned from its Overview CHONGQING 2035 / i Photo: onlyyouqj. heavy industrial base and is now types of industries. Chongqing’s term growth opportunities in China’s major automotive and IT strategic land reserve is also Chongqing. The pillars are (1) center, producing one-third of all depleting at a fast pace, in increasing spatial efficiency and laptops worldwide. part due to its land-intensive livability by promoting compact urbanization. Like many other and transit-oriented development; If the past 20-year period has Chinese cities, Chongqing is (2) enhancing connectivity and entailed catching up to other facing severe challenges of economic integration to become major Chinese cities, in the next an aging population, and risks one of China’s inland hubs for 15 to 20 years Chongqing has growing old before growing rich. the ASEAN (Association of the capacity and opportunity Southeast Asian Nations) region; to become a global city. While However, these challenges can (3) increasing R&D expenditure there is no one-size-fits-all model, be overcome through a long- leading cities such as London, term strategy that systematically and moving up the production New York, Paris, Tokyo, Singapore, manages risks and creates value chain; (4) allowing free and Hong Kong SAR, China, pathways toward achieving the flow of people and creating equal are characterized by common vision of becoming a global city. opportunities for all; and (5) attributes such as economic The World Bank Group is proud decoupling growth from resource competitiveness, environmental to have been a strong and long- use to promote green and low- sustainability, and a high quality term partner with the Chongqing carbon growth. of life. Moreover, the compact Municipal Government since I hope that this report will be a urban form of these cities has 1996. Our collaboration covers useful input for policy makers that provided a spatial structure a wide range of infrastructure will not only provide the basis that enhances the potential for investments, policy reforms, for a strong, sustainable, and economic agglomeration and technical assistance, and inclusive growth trajectory for the resource efficiency. analytical reports. city, but also foster the continuing To transition into a global This report, Chongqing strong partnership between the city, Chongqing will face 2035: Spatial and Economic municipal government and the significant economic, social, and Transformation for a Global World Bank Group. In this way, environmental challenges. For City, is another step in our long- lessons learned from Chongqing’s example, its current economic standing partnership. It provides unique urbanization experience success is largely driven by a framework resting on five can be shared across the East massive fixed-asset investment strategic pillars that create an Asia and Pacific region and and concentration on a few enabling environment for long- globally. ii / Spatial and Economic Transformation for a Global City Acknowledgments This report, a study of Proceed, Horacio Cristian Terraza, Planning Bureau, Chongqing the urban development Ivan Jacques, Ma Shulin, Cai Tao, Statistics Bureau, Chongqing Li Jianbo, Xiao Dingguang, Mi Economic & Information strategy for Chongqing Benjia, Lv Jun, Wang Bo, Zhang Commission, Chongqing Municipality, was Xinzhong, Jia Yongqiang, Mao Transportation & Communication prepared by a World Yi, Yu Ying, Li Bixiang, Xu Qianli, Commission, Chongqing Bank Group team led Yi Xiaoguang, Peng Yaolin, Xu Urban & Rural Construction by Xueman Wang Dongfeng, Zhu Yiwen, Zhang Bo, Commission, Chongqing Land in collaboration Huang Tao, and Xu Jin. & Housing Administration with a team from Bureau, Chongqing Environment The report was carried out under Chongqing Productivity Protection Bureau, Chongqing the guidance of Bert Hofman, Development Center Civil Affairs Bureau, Chongqing World Bank Country Director for (CPDC) led by Zhou China, Mongolia and Korea; and Human Resource & Social Linjun. Security Bureau, Chongqing Abhas Jha, Practice Manager for Health and Family Planning The lead authors of the Overview East Asia and Pacific. The team is Commission, Chongqing Public and four supporting reports are grateful for the advice provided Security Bureau, Chongqing Serge Salat, Xueman Wang, and by Mr. Ede Jorge Ijjasz-Vasquez, Science & Technology Zhou Linjun, with contributions Senior Director of the World Bank Commission, Chongqing Urban from Li Xiangbei, Zhou Tao, Wang Group’s Social, Urban, Rural and Administration Commission, Lin, Kang Yin, Wang Wei, Chen Resilience Global Practice; Mr. Wu Chongqing Liangjiang New Area Junhua, Xu Wei, and Li Wenxia. Jianong and Mrs. Tong Xiaoping, Administrative Committee, and former Vice Mayors of Chongqing Chongqing Water Group Co., Ltd. The technical report (Chongqing Municipal Government; and the 2035: Urban Growth Scenarios) Thanks are given to the team Advisory Group that consists was conducted by Calthorpe at Vivid Economics, along of Ma Shulin, He Zhiya, Yan Analytics and China Sustainable with Timothy Misir and Anne Xiaoguang, Mi Benjia, Yu Ying, and Transportation Center (CSTC) Himmelfarb, who edited Wang Mingying. and was led by Peter Calthorpe, the report. Zhuorui Ouyang with contributions from Erika The report was supported by and Lincoln Lewis served as Lewis, Jiang Yang, Gu Peiqing, a local data collecting team production editors for the report. and Han Zhiyuan. Technical consisting of Xu Wei, Wang Wei, He The financial support provided by information was partially provided Pengchuan, and Li Wenxia under the Energy Sector Management by Chongqing Transport Planning the guidance of Yan Xiaoguang, Assistance Program (ESMAP), the Research Institute (CTPRI). the Vice Director of CPDC. Global Platform for Sustainable Valuable comments were received The report benefited from the Cities (GPSC), Energy Foundation from Barjor Mehta, Joanna Mclean data and comments provided China (EFC), and Chongqing Masic, Gerald Paul Ollivier, Judy by Chongqing Municipal Municipal Development & Baker, Yuan Xiao, Dewan Wang, Development & Reform Reform Commission (CMDRC) is Yang Huang, Bekele Debele, Paul Commission, Chongqing Urban gratefully acknowledged. Overview CHONGQING 2035 / iii Photo: pengpeng. iv / Spatial and Economic Transformation for a Global City Table of Contents Abbreviations vi 3. A Strategy to Address Conclusion 33 Risks and Achieve 1. Introduction 1 Chongqing’s Vision 19 Annex 1 Chongqing: “A City of Strategic pillar 1 Key Indicators Used for Mountains and Rivers” A spatial strategy that Benchmarking Chongqing and One of the Largest increases efficiency and with Global Cities and the Cities in the World 1 quality of life by promoting Region 35 Chongqing’s Rapid a compact and human- Transformation 3 I. Spatial Structure and Urban centered development 20 Fabrics 36 A New Era: Vision 2035— Strategic pillar 2 Toward a Global City via II. Economic Competitiveness 38 A regional strategy to increase Four Strategic Outcomes 3 connectivity and economic III. Environmental Sustainability 39 integration 23 IV. Social Inclusiveness 39 Strategic pillar 3 2. Benchmarking An innovation strategy References 41 Chongqing’s Potential to climb the value chain and against Global Cities 7 create the conditions for a skilled labor force 26 Endnotes 45 What Makes a Global City? 7 Strategic pillar 4 Key Findings of A strategy that addresses Benchmarking Chongqing potential labor force with Global Cities 7 shortfalls and creates equal Four Risks That Must Be opportunities for all 28 Managed for Chongqing to Strategic pillar 5 Achieve Its Vision 11 A green and low-carbon growth strategy to decouple economic growth from resource use 30 Overview CHONGQING 2035 / v FIGURES TABLES BOXES Figure 1. Industry Sectors, Table 1. National and Box 1. Construction of Public 1996 vs. 2016 2 Metropolitan-Level Growth Rental Housing in Chongqing 2 Trends 3 Figure 2. Housing Prices in Major Box 2. Copenhagen’s Goal of Chinese Cities 2 Table 2. Connectivity in Becoming the First Large Chongqing and Global Cities 8 Carbon-Neutral City by 2025 10 Figure 3. Industry Structures and Needs of Cities with Different Table 3. Land Expansion and Box 3. Land Overconsumption Income Levels 4 Density in Chongqing and Trends across China 12 Global Cities 8 Figure 4. Chongqing’s Urban Box 4. Benefits and Risks Forms 13 Table 4. Accessibility of of Specialization and Housing and Jobs by Public Diversification 15 Figure 5. The Urban Form of Transport in Chongqing and Superblocks (Left) and Walkable Box 5. How Increased Global Cities 9 Development (Right) 13 Connectivity Has Reshaped the Table 5. Economic Density Strategic Significance of Cities 16 Figure 6. GDP Growth and in Chongqing and Global Cities 9 Investments in Fixed Assets Box 6. Liangjiang New Area 20 (Five-Year Average) 14 Table 6. Carbon Emissions Box 7. The 5D Compact City and Energy Consumption in Figure 7. Production of Framework 21 Chongqing and Global Cities 9 Automobiles and Box 8. Payoffs for Successful Microcomputers Since 1996 14 Spatial Planning 22 Figure 8. Projected Evolution Box 9. Chongqing’s World-Class of Chongqing’s Dependency Transportation System 23 Ratio Compared to China Overall, 2015–2049 16 Box 10. How Global Cities Exploit Synergies between Figure 9. Chongqing’s Vision 19 Universities and Start-Up Figure 10. Interventions That Ecosystems 27 Enable Chongqing to Develop Box 11. Shenzhen’s Strategy to as an Integrated Multimodal Attract Innovative Companies Logistics Hub 25 and Talent 27 Figure 11. R&D Expenditure Box 12. Why Apple Prefers as a Portion of GDP 26 to Make Its iPhones in China 28 Figure 12. Internal R&D Box 13. Social Inequity in Expenditure of Industrial New York and London 29 Enterprises above a Designated Size in 2015 26 Figure 13. CO2 Emissions Per Capita and CO2 Emissions Per Unit of GDP 31 Figure 14. Energy Consumption Trend by Type of Energy 31 vi / Spatial and Economic Transformation for a Global City Abbreviations ASEAN Association of Southeast Asian Nations CPDC Chongqing Productivity Development Center CSTC China Sustainable Transportation Center CTPRI Chongqing Transport Planning Research Institute GDP gross domestic product GHG greenhouse gas MJ megajoule NBS National Bureau of Statistics PPP purchasing power parity R&D research and development SAR special administrative region WHO World Health Organization Hongyadong. Photo: pengpeng. Overview CHONGQING 2035 / 1 1. Introduction Chongqing: “A City of Mountains and rivers.” While the municipality is large, mountainous Rivers” and One of the Largest Cities areas account for 76 percent and hilly areas for 18 in the World percent, leaving only 6 percent of flat land suitable for development. Chongqing Municipality, located in the southwest of inland China and upstream on the Yangtze River, Over the past two decades, Chongqing has faced is on the scale of a small country, with an area of significant challenges, including the resettlement of 82,400 km2 and a population of 33.92 million.1 To put over 1 million people and numerous enterprises due this into perspective, the municipality is as large as to the construction of the Three Gorges Dam. The Austria and its population is close to that of Canada. bankruptcy of a number of state-owned enterprises, Administratively, Chongqing shares the same status particularly in heavy industry, caused adverse as Beijing, Shanghai, and Tianjin—a provincial city economic and social effects. The environmental that reports directly to the central government. damage largely caused by its heavy industry was severe—in the 1990s, Chongqing had the highest Geographically, Chongqing is strategically level of acid rain in China and less than 6 percent of positioned as a gateway to China’s west, a key wastewater was treated (World Bank 2007). connection in the Yangtze River Economic Belt, and a Despite these challenges, Chongqing has made strategic base for China’s Belt and Road Initiative. an extraordinary transformation. When Chongqing The municipality has a distinct topography and became a provincial city in 1997, its gross domestic limited developable land. The Yangtze River flows product (GDP) per capita was less than US$600, for 679 km through the entire municipality and has and the urbanization rate was a mere 30 percent. its confluence with the Jialing and other rivers. As Nearly 20 years later (2016), its GDP had grown to a city built on mountains and surrounded by rivers, almost US$9,000, and its urbanization rate stood at Chongqing is known as a “city of mountains and 62 percent. The rate of treated wastewater is now 92 2 / Spatial and Economic Transformation for a Global City percent, and 100 percent for solid waste (Chongqing FIGURE 2 Housing Prices in Major Chinese Cities Municipal Government 2017). (RMB/m2) 53,087 This transformation has resulted in an important 60,000 47,549 sectoral shift. The municipality’s economy, formerly 43,332 based in agriculture and heavy industry, is now 50,000 more balanced, with the secondary and tertiary 40,000 industries contributing to 44 percent and 48 percent 23,989 22,584 of GDP respectively (Figure 1). Using a successful 22,051 30,000 21,212 cluster strategy that leverages the city’s supply 14,327 chains and investment in strategic transport links, 20,000 9,204 7,356 Chongqing has transitioned out of heavy industry 10,000 and into automobiles and IT manufacturing. Today, Chongqing is the largest automobile and 0 motorcycle manufacturing base in China, and it Sh ing en i en g ua njin ou u he n ou ng a ho a jin gh uh zh zh ng qi j a ei an gz produces one-third of the world’s laptops and 90 an ng Ti W ng B N an ho Sh C H percent of the world’s IT network terminals. C G Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China 2016. Despite rapid urbanization and growth, Chongqing has avoided some of the main challenges faced of living and housing.2 Chongqing’s ample public by the first-tier Chinese cities, such as high cost housing (Box 1) and land supply have allowed the municipality to absorb more than 10 million new urban residents while ensuring housing costs remain FIGURE 1 Industry Sectors, 1996 vs. 2016 affordable. For example, the price of an apartment 1996 2016 in Chongqing is one-seventh of the price in Beijing, one-sixth of the price in Shanghai, and one-third the 8% 22% price in Tianjin (Figure 2). Chongqing residents have 35% more living space per person (43 m2) than Beijing (32 48% m2) and Shanghai (18 m2) residents. 44% Chongqing’s economic transformation goes hand in 43% hand with improvements to social inclusiveness. As part of urban-rural integration, Chongqing provides ● Primary industry ● Secondary industry ● Tertiary industry “five guarantees” to migrant workers: the right to urban employment, retirement pensions, entitlement Source: Chongqing Municipal Bureau of Statistics and NBS Survey Office in Chongqing, 2016. to public housing, education in city schools, and BOX 1 Construction of Public Rental Housing in Chongqing To enable new residents such as university and rental housing was planned for construction within college graduates, rural migrants, and other groups three years beginning in 2010, to ensure that lower- to to better integrate into the city, Chongqing has middle-income groups (accounting for 30–40 percent developed a two-tier housing system. Chongqing’s of the city’s total population) would have access urban housing supply system is a combination of to public rental housing and resettlement housing government assurance and market regulation that provided by the government. By 2016, a cumulative aims to provide housing for lower-income households, total of 297,000 units of public rental housing had develop a housing supply market for middle-income been completed, benefiting over 900,000 people from households, and restrict housing purchases by high- 329,000 lower-middle-income households. income households. About 40 million m2 of public Source: Chongqing Public Rental Housing Department 2016. Overview CHONGQING 2035 / 3 health insurance. This policy aims to accommodate A New Era: Vision 2035—Toward a Global 10 million rural migrants into cities between 2010 and City via Four Strategic Outcomes 2020 to reach an urbanization rate of 70 percent by 2020. Chongqing can move up the value chain to become a global city within the next 15 to 20 years.3 If the past two decades can be characterized as a period during which Chongqing was catching up with other Chongqing’s Rapid Transformation major Chinese cities, the coming two decades will be Chongqing’s impressive growth in the past 20 years a critical period for Chongqing to make another leap. reflects China’s development pathway. Urbanization This goal corresponds to the central government’s and GDP growth in Chongqing and China mirror each overall strategic two-stage development plan for other, with urbanization doubling from approximately China, which covers the periods 2020 to 2035 and 30 percent to 60 percent. GDP per capita in 2035 to 2050.4 Chongqing Municipality and China as a whole both Chongqing Municipality’s sheer size and large increased more than tenfold during this period, population, thriving economy, and increasing from US$500–700 to US$8,000–9,000. By sector, integration into the global economy are significant the two growth trajectories also strongly resemble assets in its move toward becoming a global each other, with primary industry reduced by half, city. Chongqing’s rapid rise in global stature has to less than 10 percent of GDP, secondary industry already been noted by many. In a 2016 study by the remaining stable, and tertiary industry growing by Brookings Institution and JP Morgan, which divided around 10 percentage points (Table 1). globalizing cities into seven categories, Chongqing was part of a group of cities (including Johannesburg TABLE 1 National and Metropolitan-Level and São Paulo) categorized as “Emerging Gateways” Growth Trends (Trujillo and Parilla 2016). Chongqing’s national and global appeal is increasing—in 2017, Chongqing was GDP Share of primary/ Urbanization per capita secondary/ the fastest-growing tourism city in the world, with 14   (%) (US$) tertiary industry percent growth in its tourism sector (World Travel & China Tourism Council 2017). 1996 31 700 19 : 47 : 34 However, becoming a global city requires a well- 2016 56 8,100 9 : 48 : 43 designed policy strategy that builds on Chongqing’s Chongqing strong existing asset base and enables it to move to 1996 30 550 22 : 43 : 35 the next stage of development. The policy package 2016 63 8,900 7 : 44 : 48 can be structured around four strategic outcomes. Sources: National Bureau of Statistics of China 1996, 2016; Chongqing Municipal Bureau of Statistics and NBS Survey Office in Chongqing 1996, 1. A hub for advanced manufacturing 2016. and knowledge-intensive services Chongqing’s comparative advantage has always As China transitions to a new growth model, its been its production-oriented real economy.5 cities are also revisiting their growth objectives. Leveraging its industrial base, Chongqing After China’s rapid development over the last successfully upgraded its manufacturing sector to decades, the country is moving away from the focus on IT and automobiles. In the next round of pursuit of high-speed growth at any cost to focus on transformation, Chongqing can continue to build achieving a higher quality of growth. China’s cities, on its strengths in the real economy and aim to including Chongqing, are a critical part of this new develop advanced manufacturing and technological model of growth, offering an opportunity for a new capabilities. model of urbanization with a focus on efficiency, sustainability, and inclusivity. At the same time, to become a globally competitive city, Chongqing must progressively climb the value chain. According to a survey by the World 4 / Spatial and Economic Transformation for a Global City FIGURE 3 Industry Structures and Needs of Cities with Different Income Levels Market Towns Production Centers Creative and Financial Services aiming for aiming to increase the value converting deindustrialization industrialization of production to growth $1,000 $2,500 $5,000 $10,000 $20,000 $50,000 100 High-End Services 80 Share of Total Gross Value Added (%) 60 Public Services 40 Consumer Services Agriculture 20 Manufacturing, Construction, Utilities, and Mining 0 Based on 15 Cities Ordered from Lowest to Highest GDP per Capita Source: World Bank 2015b. © World Bank. Bank (Figure 3), high-end services account for Nations (ASEAN). The Belt and Road Initiative offers a larger share of the economy in cities with per Chongqing a strategic opportunity to position itself capita income exceeding US$20,000 (World Bank as part of broader regional development and to 2015b). Chongqing falls within the middle category, become an important hub in the integrated economy “production center.” To increase per capita incomes of the Chongqing-Chengdu corridor, Yangtze River in Chongqing, policies will need to support the city’s Economic Belt, and fast-growing ASEAN region. transition to a “creative and financial services” profile with a larger share of the tertiary sector than the 3. A city that provides opportunities for all current 48 percent (Chongqing Municipal Bureau of Despite progress, urbanization and economic Statistics and NBS Survey Office in Chongqing 2016).6 growth in Chongqing have not removed significant inequalities in income, education, and health 2. A base for broader ASEAN regional between rural and urban populations and between development districts. On average, per capita disposable income is Chongqing is a strategic fulcrum for the 2.7 times higher for Chongqing’s urban residents than development of western China, and a node on for rural residents, a gap that has remained large the Yangtze River Economic Belt as well as the despite Chongqing’s efforts in urban-rural integration Belt and Road Initiative. It has an extensive system (Chongqing Municipal Bureau of Statistics and of highway and rail networks that connect major NBS Survey Office in Chongqing 2016).7 Moreover, markets. The recently completed highway corridor significant differences remain across Chongqing’s that links the city to southwest China will further districts in access to health care and education, with facilitate trade between the country’s western better social services provided in central Chongqing. region and the Association of Southeast Asian Overview CHONGQING 2035 / 5 It is important for Chongqing to close these car-oriented urban environment dominated by gaps and create opportunities for all residents to superblocks. participate in the city’s new stage of development. To become a global city and attract global talent, The United Nations Sustainable Development Goals Chongqing must become a green and livable call for inclusive cities,8 and while Chongqing has city. Being green and improving livability go hand made significant progress in improving access in hand. A green environment, efficient resource to urban services and jobs among its large rural use, good public infrastructure and services, and population, the municipality will need to do more a vibrant urban life enhanced by the city’s unique to create equal access and the right enabling urban fabric and historical assets are important environment to ensure that growth can be equitably factors in the competition for global talent. Without shared among all residents. talent, Chongqing will not achieve its goal of becoming a global city. It is therefore imperative 4. A city of mountains and rivers that that Chongqing change its model of urban is green and highly livable development to what the national government calls Chongqing, like other cities throughout China, “quality growth” so it can reclaim its image as a city is paying a high price for its rapid urbanization, of mountains and rivers and become known as a including the deterioration of environmental quality, city with a high quality of life. resource wastage, high carbon emissions, and a Copenhagen commuters. Photo: 4045. 6 / Spatial and Economic Transformation for a Global City Overview CHONGQING 2035 / 7 2. Benchmarking Chongqing’s Potential against Global Cities With the right development strategy, there is little doubt that Chongqing can achieve its ambition of becoming a metropolis with international appeal in the next 20 years. To develop such a strategy and understand its main priorities, this report begins by benchmarking Chongqing against a set of global cities. What Makes a Global City? Key Findings of Benchmarking Chongqing with Global Cities To begin, a basic question must be answered: which cities are global cities, and what are their common Compared to the Big Six and other leading global features? cities, Chongqing has its own strengths, as well as a number of weaknesses that any long-term plan must Although there is no internationally agreed aim to address and improve. Due to its sheer size, definition of what constitutes a global city, there Chongqing Municipality can be benchmarked against are some common characteristics that many such entire countries, while central Chongqing, comprising cities share. The so-called Big Six leading global nine districts, can be compared to leading global cities—London, New York, Paris, Tokyo, Hong Kong cities. Chongqing Municipality’s area, for example, SAR, and Singapore—are global economic hubs.9 is approximately 80 percent that of the Republic They all have high levels of business and investment activity and attract talent and businesses from of Korea, and its population about 60 percent. The around the world.10 In particular, global cities have population of central Chongqing’s nine districts is developed comprehensive competencies in four about 7.4 million (2015, registered population) and is mutually reinforcing dimensions: thus comparable to Tokyo’s 23 wards, Seoul Special City, Singapore, Hong Kong SAR, London, or New York 1. Economic competitiveness that is defined by City.11 For the purpose of this report, benchmarking is robust economic performance, a large and skilled done at the scale of both the municipality and central labor force, high innovation capacity, and excellent Chongqing, as relevant (see Annex 1). connectivity 2. Environmental sustainability driven by resource Benchmarking reveals a number of strengths that efficiency and the effort to maintain a low carbon make Chongqing well placed to become a global footprint city in the future. Chongqing Municipality’s economy 3. High quality of life with a unique urban fabric, has recently been the fastest growing in China, vibrant neighborhoods, and cultural interaction expanding 9.3 percent year-on-year in 2017. This 4. Compact spatial structure to support rate of growth is about three times higher than that agglomeration and maximize efficiency—a cross- of Singapore or Hong Kong SAR. The municipality’s cutting and enabling dimension that is vital for the land transport infrastructure, especially roads and other three areas railroads, is strong; and its location, as a gateway Facing page photo: The municipal government highlighted the city’s distinct urban form when advertising Chongqing at New York’s Times Square on New Year’s Eve, 2017. Photo: Chongqing Municipal Government. © Chongqing Municipal Government. Reproduced with permission from Chongqing Municipal Government; further permission required for reuse. 8 / Spatial and Economic Transformation for a Global City to China’s west, to Europe, and to Southeast Asia, Chongqing lags behind global cities in three is an asset. At 2,818 km, the length of Chongqing areas in particular: density, innovation, and Municipality’s network of expressways is 57 percent environmental sustainability. Concerning the first, that of Korea. When the extension of Chongqing Chongqing’s built-up area has increased twice as fast Municipality’s high-speed rail network is completed, as its urban population in the past two decades. The the network’s length will be double that of Korea’s city has used more land to accommodate each new network and three-quarters that of Japan’s (Table urban resident (136 m2) than the average for China, 2). Chongqing also has an unusually strong other Chinese cities, and Hong Kong SAR (94 m2). manufacturing base, both in automobiles and IT. Lastly, Chongqing’s housing market, underpinned As a result, the municipality’s urban population by strong public housing provision (Box 1), is density has almost halved, dropping from 22,820/ affordable compared to China’s other province- km2 in 1997 to 12,013/km2 in 2015, and is now much level municipalities and to global cities, ensuring its lower than that of other provincial-level municipalities attractiveness for young talent. in China (Table 3). However, benchmarking also reveals weaknesses The share of people and jobs within walking distance that threaten the city’s potential to develop of public transport is also low compared to London, the economic competitiveness, environmental New York, and Hong Kong SAR (Table 4). sustainability, and social inclusiveness required of global cities. TABLE 2 Connectivity in Chongqing and Global Cities Indicator Chongqing International benchmarks 2,032 km at municipality scale Japan: 2,765 km High-speed rail network length (when the mi [米] railway network Korea: 1,048 km is complete) Greater London: 110 million New York JFK: 32 million Seoul Capital Area: 57 million Annual international passenger air traffic (2017) 5 million (target 2020) Tokyo Narita: 32 million Hong Kong SAR: 70 million Singapore: 58 million Source: Based on data from Chongqing Planning Bureau; Chongqing Municipal Government 2017; Migiro 2018; ACI 2018. Note: Figures for London include Heathrow and Gatwick. TABLE 3 Land Expansion and Density in Chongqing and Global Cities Indicator Chongqing International benchmarks Land expansion 2000–2009 Hong Kong SAR: 40 Additional land per new urban resident (m2) 136 (central Chongqing) Singapore: 38 Density Seoul Capital Area: 11,880 12,129 (municipality) Greater Tokyo Area: 8,062 Population density (people/km2 in built-up area) Hong Kong SAR: 37,100 Seoul Special City: 29,100 13,248 (central Chongqing) Singapore: 18,248 Tokyo 23 wards: 15,346 Source: Calculated based on data from Seoul Metropolitan Government; Tokyo Metropolitan Government; Chongqing Municipal Bureau of Statistics and NBS Survey Office in Chongqing 2016; Angel et al. 2016; and Government of Hong Kong Planning Department 2018. Overview CHONGQING 2035 / 9 Furthermore, economic agglomeration is Chongqing’s energy intensity and CO2 emissions significantly lower in central Chongqing than in are very high compared to global cities. As Table other Chinese and global cities (Table 5). 6 shows, Chongqing emits approximately twice as much CO2 per capita as Tokyo and Seoul, rising to Chongqing lags global cities in terms of research eight times as much when measured per unit of GDP, and development (R&D). This is visible both at the and uses 8–10 times the amount of energy per unit of country level and city level, and both internationally GDP as Hong Kong SAR and Tokyo. Chongqing also and within China. The total R&D spending in Korea, uses about three times more water per capita than Japan, Finland, and Sweden is more than 3 percent New York, and Chongqing’s air quality is well below of GDP, and the same is true for Beijing (5.9 percent), World Health Organization (WHO) critical thresholds. Shanghai (3.8 percent), and Tianjin (3.1 percent). In PM2.5 concentration is, for example, more than three comparison, R&D spending in Chongqing amounts times higher than in Singapore and Paris, four times to only 1.6 percent. In addition, R&D expenditure by higher than in Tokyo and London, and 6.6 times industry enterprises in Chongqing is relatively low as higher than in New York. well. This is an important factor, given that innovation is largely driven by private sector participation in research. TABLE 4 Accessibility of Housing and Jobs by Public Transport in Chongqing and Global Cities Indicator Chongqing International benchmarks London: 53 percent Share of people living within walking distance to 20 percent (central Chongqing) New York: 48 percent transit (less than 1 km in global cities) Hong Kong SAR: 75 percent London: 67 percent Share of jobs within walking distance to transit 35 percent (central Chongqing) New York: 58 percent (less than 1 km in global cities) Hong Kong SAR: 84 percent Source: Based on an assessment made by Calthorpe Associates for this report and Rode et al. 2013. TABLE 5 Economic Density in Chongqing and Global Cities Indicator Chongqing International benchmarks Greater Tokyo Area: 0.31 0.166 (municipality) Seoul Capital Area: 0.34 New York Metropolitan Area: 0.23 GDP density (GDP/km2 of built-up area in billion Hong Kong SAR: 1.18 US$/km2 at current prices) Singapore: 1.07 0.180 (central Chongqing) Seoul Special City: 0.78 Greater London: 0.60 New York City: 0.94 Source: Calculated based on data from Seoul Metropolitan Government; Angel et al. 2016; Chongqing Municipal Bureau of Statistics and NBS Survey Office in Chongqing 2016; Government of Hong Kong Planning Department 2018. TABLE 6 Carbon Emissions and Energy Consumption in Chongqing and Global Cities Indicator Chongqing Municipality International benchmarks Greater Tokyo Area: 4.8 CO2 emissions per capita (tons) 8.22 Seoul Capital Area: 3.7 Greater Tokyo Area: 1.1 CO2 emissions per unit of GDP (US$10,000 at PPP) 7.8 Seoul Capital Area: 1 Energy consumption per unit of GDP (MJ/US$1,000 Greater Tokyo Area: 1.2 Singapore: 3 12 at current prices) Hong Kong SAR: 1.5 Source: Calculated based on Chongqing Municipal Bureau of Statistics and NBS Survey Office in Chongqing 2016 and Economist Intelligence Unit 2011. Note: PPP = purchasing power parity. 10 / Spatial and Economic Transformation for a Global City The development pathway of many global cities as Copenhagen (Box 2), London, New York, and suggests that when wealth reaches a certain level, Hong Kong SAR show that increasing wealth creates resource consumption decouples from increasing the preconditions for decoupling, but active and GDP per capita. For example, the Asian Green well-integrated policies are crucial for it to actually Cities Index shows that when incomes exceed happen. Policies that should be put in place include around US$20,000 per person, average resource planning for a compact urban form with densities consumption decreases (Economist Intelligence Unit aligned with transit, mixed-use developments, and 2011). a good job and housing balance; policies favoring However, decoupling does not happen nonmotorized transport; and replacement of coal automatically. The experiences of global cities such with renewable energies. BOX 2 Copenhagen’s Goal of Becoming the First Large Carbon-Neutral City by 2025 Copenhagen commuters. Photo: LeoPatrizi. Copenhagen’s GDP per capita increased by 30 percent achieved a high level of integration between land use between 1993 and 2010, while carbon emissions have and transit, with 57 percent of the population and 61 halved since 1993 to reach 3.5 tons of CO2 per capita. percent of the jobs within walking distance from urban Thus an absolute decoupling of economic growth and rail stations. Moreover, the city is aiming for 50 percent carbon emissions has been achieved. Copenhagen of commuting trips to be made by bike. Replacing coal is well known for its “Finger Plan” of development and biomass for heating and power generation and from 1947, which has channeled urban growth along the increased use of wind energy have also made a rail corridors radiating from the city center while substantial contribution to reducing the city’s overall protecting “green wedges” from development. emissions. Through effective spatial planning, the city has Source: Rode et al. 2013. Overview CHONGQING 2035 / 11 Four Risks That Must Be Managed for Chongqing to Achieve Its Vision Based on the strengths and weaknesses identified in the benchmark analysis, four main risks can be identified as potential barriers to Chongqing’s Vision 2035: Risk ➊ Risk ➋ Risk ➌ Risk ➍ The gradual depletion Risks arising from Demographic change, Increased competition and misuse of its current drivers of including an aging from other regional Chongqing’s most growth: fixed-asset population and a urban centers, such as important asset for investment and the twin looming shortage of Chengdu. development—its land engines of Chongqing’s skilled labor reserve core industry base— automobiles and IT Among these four risks, the first two are a result of Chongqing’s available land could be depleted within the current growth modality—that is, the trend that the next 10 to 15 years. If the excessive conversion would endanger Chongqing’s transition to the next rate of 136 m2 of land per new urban inhabitant stage of transformation. These risks can be mitigated continues, Chongqing will use all its developable land if Chongqing fundamentally rethinks its development by 2030 to accommodate the 5.8 million new urban strategy. The last two risks arise from external forces, dwellers in central Chongqing, leaving no room for which are inevitable; they require Chongqing to industrial uses and for further urbanization. prepare early to mitigate the risks and to develop a The current model of urban growth, which focuses strategy for adaptation to the new circumstances. on superblocks,12 is leading to low population Each is discussed in more detail below. density, reduced economic density, and increased traffic congestion. Residential superblocks currently cover three-quarters of central Chongqing, but house Risk ➊ only 36 percent of its population and thus represent a clear waste of land assets. Economic density is Fast depletion and suboptimal use of also 16 times lower in residential superblocks than in Chongqing’s strategic land reserve Chongqing’s mixed-use walkable areas. Lastly, this urban form and its fragmentation in outlying areas Chongqing has a limited developable land supply of central Chongqing has resulted in 80 percent due to its mountainous topography. Despite its vast of residents and 65 percent of jobs being located territory of 82,400 km2, only approximately 2,300 in car-dependent areas with low or no pedestrian km2 are available and planned for development. access to public transit—a figure well below global As the benchmarking reveals, Chongqing’s recent city benchmarks, and one that leads to a high level of development has been excessively land-intensive, traffic and, hence, congestion and pollution.13 with a land consumption rate much higher than in Superblocks are also less connected and less other Chinese cities. By 2015, only about 800 km2 walkable than other Chongqing urban forms, remained available for further development, including affecting the quality of life (Figure 4 and Figure 5). for industrial land use (Chongqing Municipal Bureau More street intersections reduce connection distances, of Statistics and NBS Survey Office in Chongqing increase urban interaction, and boost the quality of 2016). This pattern is common across China (Box 3), life. Conversely, a coarse urban fabric is pedestrian- but particularly pronounced in Chongqing. unfriendly and car-oriented. In Chongqing’s Chongqing’s high land consumption poses four superblock areas, the density of street intersections major risks: emerging land shortfall, declining drops below 10 per km2, the length of streets falls population density and economic density, reduced to 5 km per km2, and the average distance between walkability and quality of life, and increased intersections reaches 400 m.14 Compared to other infrastructure costs. global cities, these are very low numbers. 12 / Spatial and Economic Transformation for a Global City BOX 3 Land Overconsumption Trends across China Chongqing construction. Photo: Wonri. Chongqing’s land overconsumption is not isolated; accommodate more than twice the current Chinese it is a general trend across China that is driven by population of 1.4 billion people—or almost half of the local governments’ desire for more land income. world’s population. The results were detailed in an According to a report by the National Development analysis by Xinhua News Agency, which criticized the and Reform Commission, the central planning agency new development areas planned as impractical and of China, small and medium-size cities are planning leading to “ghost towns.” more than 3,500 new areas that, taken together, could Source: Wu, Dong, and Xu 2016. Overview CHONGQING 2035 / 13 Lastly, superblocks result in increased times compared with the Trend scenario. This implies infrastructure costs. The cost of street infrastructure that, relative to each unit of infrastructure, a smaller per unit of GDP for superblocks increases up to 11 tax base is available to fund it. FIGURE 4 Chongqing’s Urban Forms A. Walkable B. Walkable C. Walkable medium- D. Superblock E. Superblock commercial mix in residential mix in density mix in Yuzong commercial mix in residential mix in Yuzhong district Yubei district district Jiulongpo district Jiulongpo district Source: Produced by China Sustainable Transportation Center (CSTC) for this report. FIGURE 5 The Urban Form of Superblocks (Left) and Walkable Development (Right) Source: Produced by Calthorpe Associates for Chongqing 2035: Urban Growth Scenarios. Note: The diagrams are at the same scale. Superblock development Transit service in a walkable development pattern Image credit: Calthorpe Associates. © Calthorpe Associates. Reproduced Image credit: Institute for Transportation & Development Policy (ITDP). with permission from Calthorpe Associates; further permission required © ITDP. Reproduced with permission from ITDP; further permission for reuse. required for reuse. 14 / Spatial and Economic Transformation for a Global City Additionally, labor productivity growth has slowed Risk ➋ down significantly in the past five years, a possible sign that Chongqing’s economy has exhausted Difficulty of managing drivers of gains from first-generation policy reforms and the Chongqing’s development to ensure absorption of imported technologies (World Bank future success 2015a). Identifying new drivers for growth will The drivers of Chongqing’s past achievements do be crucial for maintaining robust and sustainable not necessarily ensure future development and economic growth. may even endanger the transition to a new growth Chongqing’s two engines of growth—IT and model. Over the past two decades, Chongqing’s automobiles—are beginning to plateau. Chongqing transformation was driven by fixed-asset investment, has successfully adopted an ecosystem approach for automobile production, and IT manufacturing. While industrial transformation and cluster development. successful in the past, these drivers of growth cannot However, while its two core industries have be relied on for continued success. been important drivers of growth, their rate of The fixed asset–driven growth modality is growth slowed significantly between 2010 and unsustainable. Chongqing’s investment in fixed 2015, reflecting a shift in the market. Automobile assets grew by 48 times in 20 years, and rapid production, in particular, seems to be reaching the infrastructure development increased the city’s end of a pronounced S-curve. While the annual connectivity, improved urban services, and fueled growth rate of car production peaked at an average GDP growth. However, investments in fixed assets of 40 percent between 2006 and 2010, it fell sharply may have peaked and are likely to decline going to an average of 5 percent between 2011 and 2015 forward (Chongqing Municipal People’s Government (Chongqing Municipal Bureau of Statistics and NBS 2016), (Figure 6). As a result, the projection for GDP Survey Office in Chongqing 2016). The expected growth by 2020 is expected to fall to 9 percent. slowdown in both production and sales could have FIGURE 6 GDP Growth and Investments FIGURE 7 Production of Automobiles in Fixed Assets (Five-Year Average) and Microcomputers Since 1996 32 110 30 100 28 90 26 80 24 22 70 20 60 18 50 16 40 14 12 30 10 20 2001 – 2005 2005 – 2010 2010 – 2015 10 ● GDP % ● Total investments in fixed assets % 0 ● Construction projects % ● Real estate development % 1996 2000 2005 2010 2015 ● Floor space under construction % ● Cars (10,000 units) ● Microcomputers (million units) Source: Produced by the Urban Morphology and Complex Systems Institute for this report, based on Chongqing Municipal Bureau of Statistics and NBS Survey Office in Chongqing 2016. Overview CHONGQING 2035 / 15 associated effects on downstream and upstream raw electronics and automobile manufacturing, account materials and spare parts production enterprises. for a large share of the city’s industrial output. They should be closely monitored to avoid the risk of a This situation raises an important issue: the trade- off between specialization and diversification in the sudden collapse. Automobile manufacturing may upgrading of Chongqing’s real economy.15 Going suffer from lower growth rates going forward, as forward, Chongqing needs to review and continue to shown in Figure 7. Diversifying into electric mobility optimize its industrial structure to achieve the right may be an excellent way to leverage Chongqing’s balance between specialization and diversification industrial base, while at the same time securing (Box 4). Today, its two main industrial clusters, future growth and employment. BOX 4 Benefits and Risks of Specialization and Diversification Chongqing main square crowd. Photo: URF. Specialization brings a number of important benefits: hidden dangers may ensue. Chongqing has already well-oiled supply chains and deep local labor markets, learned this lesson once: the district of Dadukou, for example, make it likely that new firms entering the heavily reliant on iron and steel production, saw relevant industries will choose Chongqing over other remarkable economic development for many years locations. The co-location of many firms facilitates and was one of the main drivers of Chongqing’s learning by doing, promotes local innovation, and economy in the 1990s and early 2000s. However, a attracts industry talent to Chongqing in search of severe recession affected its core industry of iron jobs. It also makes it likely that logistical links, both and steel, and its economic growth fell off a cliff. upstream to suppliers and downstream to distributors, To date, Dadukou’s GDP is the lowest of central will be strengthened and reliable, and that financing Chongqing’s nine core districts, and the area continues with the relevant industry expertise will be available. In to struggle with industrial development. In other sum, specialization supports the formation, retention, words, overspecialization means tying the fate of and growth of industrial clusters and product chains, the overall economy to the fate of a single sector or making it more likely that a city becomes a central a small number of industries and carries the risk of economic hub with a strong “center of gravity” effect. sudden collapse. A certain degree of diversification is therefore beneficial for Chongqing’s economic However, from the perspective of diversification, if economic or employment growth is heavily sustainability and economic development. concentrated in one or a small number of industries, Source: Dadukou District Bureau of Statistics 2010. 16 / Spatial and Economic Transformation for a Global City In addition to an aging population and a Risk ➌ high dependency rate, Chongqing remains a municipality with a net population outflow. Until Disappearing demographic dividends 2016, about 5 million people left the municipality, with an aging population while only 1.6 million people moved in, for a net loss If China as a whole risks growing old before of more than 3.4 million people to other regions growing rich, the challenge facing Chongqing is (Chongqing Municipal Bureau of Statistics and NBS potentially even more severe. In the past 15 years, Survey Office in Chongqing 2016). Chongqing has become an aging municipality.16 In To address this outflow, Chongqing needs to remain 2015, Chongqing had a higher dependency ratio than economically attractive. The majority of the outflow the national level—that is, 40 percent compared to consists of young migrants or skilled workers who 37 percent for China overall. Chongqing’s Municipal leave for better economic opportunities in other cities. Statistics Bureau has projected the dependency rate in 2049 to be as high as 70 percent (Figure 8). FIGURE 8 Projected Evolution of Chongqing’s Risk ➍ Dependency Ratio Compared to China Reduced geographical advantages due Overall, 2015–2049 to the increased connectivity of other 70 cities in the region 65 Like Chongqing, neighboring regions such as 60 Chengdu in Sichuan Province have in past decades 55 poured massive investment into transport to reduce 50 geographical barriers (Box 5). Chengdu’s Shuangliu Depednency Rate (%) 45 Airport handled 42.2 million passengers in 2015. In 40 2013, it was the fourth-busiest airport in China, the 35 fifth-busiest airport in terms of cargo traffic in China, and the busiest airport in western and central China. A 30 transcontinental rail link has also transformed Chengdu 25 from a regional hub to an international port and 20 investment center. Its rail link covers more than 10,000 15 km and reaches Germany in 14 days (HKTDC 2016). 10 36.58 40.17 70 As Chongqing strives to become a logistics hub for 0 western China, a coordinated development strategy China Chongqing Chongqing 2015 2015 projected 2049 that creates win-win opportunities for development of the Chongqing-Chengdu corridor is becoming Source: Produced by the Urban Morphology and Complex Systems Institute for this report, based on information provided by Chongqing ever more important. Planning Bureau. BOX 5 How Increased Connectivity Has Reshaped the Strategic Significance of Cities In 1850, the population of Chicago was 30,000, one- turn, meant that Chicago would grow exponentially quarter that of St. Louis, then the second-largest port during the railroad era. Chicago now has the largest in the United States after New York. However, the number of American highways and highest volume of completion of the Illinois and Michigan Canal in 1848, rail freight, while O’Hare International Airport is the which connected Chicago to the Mississippi River, second-busiest airport in the world. diverted trade that previously went to St. Louis. Its strategic location at the heart of the Great Plains, in Source: Dreyfus 1995. Overview CHONGQING 2035 / 17 As Chongqing strives to become a logistics hub for western China, a coordinated development strategy that creates win-win opportunities for development of the Chongqing-Chengdu corridor is becoming ever more important. Multi-level overpass. Photo: pengpeng. 18 / Spatial and Economic Transformation for a Global City Chongqing railway station. Photo: vichie81. Overview CHONGQING 2035 / 19 3. A Strategy to Address Risks and Achieve Chongqing’s Vision Global cities actively envision their future and independently. Complementing this Overview, these work toward realizing it through comprehensive documents provide a more technical analysis to and strategic planning. For example, New York’s identify the ways in which Chongqing can achieve its One NYC Plan is organized around principles global city ambition. of growth, equity, sustainability, and resilience. ■■ The Supporting Reports briefings address spatial Singapore’s land use plan for 2030 considers the strategy, connectivity, innovation, and green country’s land use demands comprehensively so that and low-carbon growth. These policy notes are potential trade-offs between uses can be evaluated intended to serve as a basis for further analytical holistically for continued economic growth and the work. Social inclusiveness, though discussed in this provision of high-quality living environments (Urban Overview, will require a separate study before a Redevelopment Authority 2012).17 report can be provided. To overcome the challenges and constraints outlined ■■ The technical report on urban growth scenarios above, Chongqing needs to adopt a long-term models the outcomes and land use scenarios strategy that systematically manages and mitigates of two different development paths: a Trend key risks and creates a pathway toward achieving scenario, which continues past patterns of its vision of becoming a global city by 2035. While land development, characterized by continued this report does not propose detailed, sector-level, or centralization of high-level employment around industry-level policies, it identifies five strategic pillars the existing downtown core, and expansive (shown in orange in Figure 9) aimed at creating a set superblock, office park, and industrial development of enabling conditions, in particular concerning the throughout central Chongqing; and a Compact spatial dimension, for Chongqing to move forward. Growth scenario, which posits a polycentric This Overview, which gives the highlights for each regional structure created through focused, of the five pillars, is supported by a series of policy walkable, mixed-use development around existing briefings and a technical report. Each can be read and planned transit nodes. FIGURE 9 Chongqing’s Vision By 2035, to become a global city that is I. A hub for advanced manufacturing and knowledge-intensive services II. A base for broader ASEAN regional development III. A city that offers opportunities for all IV. A city of mountains and rivers that is green and highly livable Spatial Connectivity Innovation Inclusivity Green growth transformation transformation transformation transformation transformation promoting compact linking Chongqing to developing a skilled ensuring equality of identifying a low- and human-centered ASEAN markets future labor force opportunity across carbon transition development for high value add urban and rural pathway for districts and a free Chongqing flow of people 20 / Spatial and Economic Transformation for a Global City Strategic pillar 1 Spatial transformation I: Pursue compact growth to reduce land consumption and A spatial strategy that increases increase economic density efficiency and quality of life by promoting a compact and human- Land should be managed as a scarce asset. This centered development intervention implies two major reorientations: Cities can increase their efficiency and quality ■■ Shifting from rural land conversion to development of life through compact urban development. by infill. Rather than filling all designated Preserving and achieving economic density increases developable area in Chongqing’s present master agglomeration economies and brings people closer plan, compact growth would first consider to jobs, while reducing infrastructure costs and the infill capacity of existing urban areas and environmental impacts. Cities can also increase their limit the expansion beyond it. This would curb quality of life and global appeal by building mixed- unsustainable trends in land conversion. use neighborhoods with unique urban fabrics, high- quality public space, and dense patterns of streets. ■■ Managing land in a more flexible way. The redevelopment of land must aim for a minimum As noted in the discussion of benchmarking and density, allowing a higher density near public risks above, Chongqing is at high risk of losing its transit to make the lines profitable and increase land use efficiency and unique urban form of “a city the accessibility to jobs for the population. The of mountains and rivers.” Further urbanization in land may be divided into parcels smaller than the Chongqing is an opportunity to reverse the trends current superblocks to allow more flexibility and of increasing fragmentation and falling density. adaptability to the future needs of the market. The payoffs to a successful spatial transformation are significant. For example, Chongqing can A good opportunity for implementing this vision is potentially save up to 200 km2 in land and RMB 34 presented by the Liangjiang New Area in the northern billion in infrastructure costs by 2035. To illustrate section of the core-adjacent area. If planned well, the the magnitude of the potential gains, the results of a Liangjiang New Area could accommodate a significant scenario study are summarized in Box 8 following the amount of the region’s projected growth and potentially three spatial transformations described below.18 become a new engine of growth for the city (Box 6). BOX 6 Liangjiang New Area Established in 2010 and located in central China-Singapore Connectivity Demonstration Project, Chongqing, Liangjiang New Area is the third state- Port Area, Industrial Park, and Free-Trade Zone. As level development zone established by the Chinese a result, growth has been fast, and according to the government.a With a total area of 1,205 km2, it could current development plan, the area’s GDP is expected accommodate a major portion of Chongqing’s to exceed RMB 1 trillion by 2020, equivalent to doubling projected growth. Liangjiang New Area is a growth Chongqing’s economy within 10 years.c priority for the city and an opportunity to increase economic density and agglomeration.b The area already If planned well, Liangjiang New Area would allow the has a comprehensive multimodal transport network, city to increase its land use efficiency and absorb a including water, air, road, and railway transport. In significant part of the expected population growth of addition, it has dedicated functional areas such as the 5.8 million. Source: Tan and Gao 2017. a. According to Rankings of Local Governments in China 2017, the comprehensive development potential of Liangjiang New Area ranks first among 163 development zones in China (including 137 national-level development zones and 26 provincial-level development zones). b. According to the approval document issued by the State Council, Liangjiang New Area will become “the leader among national experimental zones of comprehensive complementary reforms for rural-urban integration, an important sophisticated manufacturing and modern services base in inland China, a financial center and innovation center in upstream Yangtze River, an important gateway of opening up in inland China and a demonstration window of scientific development.” c. The total GDP of Central Chongqing’s nine districts was about RMB 703 billion in 2016. Overview CHONGQING 2035 / 21 Spatial transformation II: Pursue transit- other global cities such as Tokyo, Hong Kong SAR, oriented development that integrates and Seoul have done. land use and transportation planning and Average density is less important than articulated articulates accessible densities and accessible density (UN Environment 2018). Integrating transport and land use planning will Articulated density is achieved by multi-use help reduce land needs, infrastructure costs, construction around transit nodes in street networks pollution, and congestion. Chongqing plans to with human-scale blocks that facilitate walking expand its subway network fourfold to 820 km, with and diverse travel modes. The 5D Compact City more than 480 stations—a length similar to the Seoul Framework (Box 7) is a helpful tool for planners subway. This massive extension gives Chongqing the seeking to develop compact, connected, and opportunity to shape its urban form efficiently, as polycentric cities. BOX 7 The 5D Compact City Framework A city can combine multiple nodes of articulated density with a rich mix of housing, jobs, and amenities at the neighborhood level. HIGH DENSITY: Approx. 15,000 persons/km2 LOW DENSITY: Approx. 7,500 to 10,000 persons/km2 DENISITY DIVERSITY OF USE AND Maximizing compact urban INCOME form while mitigating negative Neighborhoods with mixed income aspects such as air pollution groups and diverse opportunities for and congestion. jobs, commerce, and leisure. DESIGN Shaping cities so that urban residents benefit from the advantages of dense areas. Good design includes walkability, traffic safety controls, and tree cover. DISTANCE TO TRANSIT DESTINATION ACCESS Transit options should ideally be Sustainable transportation accessible within 400–800m. modes that take people where they want to go. Source: UN Environment, GI-REC, International Resource Panel, “Building Better Cities: ASEAN Looks to the Future,” https://citiesipcc.org/wp-content/ uploads/2018/03/Fact-Sheet_-South-East-Asia_Future_Infrastructure-1.pdf. 22 / Spatial and Economic Transformation for a Global City Spatial transformation III: Design vibrant strategy: unique landscapes of mountains and mixed-use neighborhoods as places for water have positively shaped the identity of people based on Chongqing’s unique cities as diverse as Hong Kong SAR, Seoul, San landscape of mountains and rivers Francisco, Zurich, Rome, and Porto. This transformation consists of a reversal of ■■ Retrofit existing neighborhoods and increase Chongqing’s current superblock approach to their livability. This mainly includes improving the give identity and a sense of place to Chongqing’s connectivity and permeability of urban blocks, extensions. In particular, it requires the city to take developing mixed-use spaces, and enhancing the following steps: public spaces and public facilities. ■■ Design neighborhoods that are sensitive to ■■ Plan the city using a variety of small mixed-use the unique mountain and river landscape of blocks. Small blocks of less than 1.5 ha provide a Chongqing. Chongqing’s urban landscape should human-scale environment with greater variety in incorporate the city’s invaluable natural assets— built form and street patterns. Small blocks also the river, the mountains’ undulating ridges, and offer a variety of public spaces, architectures, and landscaped parks. This is a tried and tested activities. They should be developed with active BOX 8 Payoffs for Successful Spatial Planning To highlight the stakes of getting spatial policy R&D to improve competitiveness and extend social decisions right, two different urban growth scenarios services such as education or health. were modeled and compared: a Trend scenario in which ■■ Chongqing’s affordability is improved. Household current patterns of development are extrapolated into costs for transportation and home energy use will be the future, in particular the concentration of job growth reduced by 32 percent, achieving annual savings of in the urban core and the development of housing and RMB 5,100 per household. single-use superblocks in the core-adjacent areas; and a Compact Growth scenario, in which development leads ■■ Central Chongqing becomes less car dependent, to a polycentric regional structure created through with a reduction of congestion and an increase focused, walkable, mixed-use development around in the accessibility of jobs with affordable existing and planned transit nodes.a transportation. The mode share of public transit increases by 9 percentage points, and total The results are clear: land use, urban livability, automobile travel is reduced by 40 percent. household expenditures, infrastructure costs, and ■■ Air quality, which currently fails to meet critical environmental sustainability are all strongly improved thresholds and threatens human health, is by the choice of compact growth. Specifically: significantly improved. CO2 and air pollutant ■■ About 200 km2 of land is saved, preserving a emissions from auto travel fall by 39 percent. valuable asset for future expansion beyond 2035 This modeling exercise demonstrates that successfully and increasing economic density, agglomeration, implementing compact growth, transit-oriented and productivity. development, and new livable neighborhood planning ■■ Cumulated expenditure on road, water, and sewage and design can make a major contribution to infrastructure to 2035 is reduced by 30 percent, Chongqing’s Vision 2035. The full details of the model achieving RMB 34 billion in savings and allowing, for are published in the technical report Chongqing 2035: example, the redeployment of public expenditure to Urban Growth Scenarios. Source: Urban growth scenario modeling conducted by Calthorpe Associates for this report. a. Both scenarios focus only on the area of central Chongqing and assume the addition of 5.8 million new residents and 4 million new jobs by 2035. To isolate the impacts of land use, both scenarios assume the same baseline factors for vehicle performance, energy efficiency, and fuel and energy emissions. Overview CHONGQING 2035 / 23 sidewalks and perimeter buildings to provide shared digital connectivity, and economic integration. interior courtyards. UN-Habitat recommends that at Integrating these three dimensions generates least 40 percent of floor space should be allocated significant economic output and high-quality jobs, for economic use in any neighborhood and that and helps cities accumulate knowledge, with positive land specialization should be limited to single- spillover effects on the broader economy. function blocks covering less than 10 percent of any Chongqing stands out for its infrastructure and neighborhood (UN-Habitat 2014). digital connectivity. By combining road, river, rail, subway, and air transport links, Chongqing has developed a world-class transportation system Strategic pillar 2 (Box 9). This will be further strengthened once the A regional strategy to increase Southern Transport Corridor rail link to Singapore is connectivity and economic integration complete. Digital infrastructure is also strong, with Three kinds of connectivity boost economic 70 percent of households having broadband Internet growth and help cities become important hubs or and the existence of a city-level partnership with gateways: physical (infrastructure) connectivity, Alibaba. BOX 9 Chongqing’s World-Class Transportation System The Chongqing-Xinjiang-Europe Railway, a direct rail route are from multinational computer companies in route from Chongqing to Germany, was established in Chongqing, including the technology giant Foxconn, 2010 and has brought Chongqing to the forefront of which is a major supplier of Hewlett-Packard, Acer, China’s trade with Central Asia and Europe. The 11,179- and Apple. By August 2016, over 2,100 trains had km journey from Chongqing to Duisburg takes only 14 been dispatched via this rail route, which is currently days, compared to 34 days by sea, and is safer, cheaper, providing regular rail services to more than 16 Chinese and more reliable. Most goods transported using this cities and 12 European cities (HKTDC 2016). IBRD 44230 | FEBRUARY 2019 Kashira Minsk Malaszewicze Brest Duisburg Alashankou City Chongqing Rapid Expansion: China–Europe Freight Train Service Jan – Aug 2016 2011 – Aug 2015 Sep – Dec 2015 More than 900 trains More than 900 trains About 400 trains (annual growth rate: +130%) Source: China Railway Corporation. 24 / Spatial and Economic Transformation for a Global City BOX 9 Chongqing’s World-Class Transportation System (cont.) Source: Chongqing Monorail. Photo: leezsnow Chongqing’s road and rail construction By 2016, the total length of the municipality’s In 2016, the length of high-speed railways in operation road network—142,921 km, including 2,828 km of amounted to 356 km, with 184 km under construction. expressways—ranked 10th in China and 1st in the However, the city’s railway development plan calls for country’s western region. The total length of railways in significant growth and would bring the total length of the municipality was 2,231 km, and the pace of railway the railway network to 5,800 km by 2030, including construction has accelerated with the construction of 2,032 km of high-speed railways. When complete, the mi (米) high-speed railway network. This network Chongqing will become an important transport hub allows any part of Chongqing to be reached within connecting Europe and Asia with other parts of China. two hours, the capitals of the surrounding provinces Source: HKTDC 2016; Chongqing Municipal Government 2017. in less than three hours, and Beijing, Shanghai, and Guangzhou in less than six hours. However, Chongqing’s physical and digital Chongqing may aim to become the region’s “center connectivity has yet to translate into regional of gravity” by retaining its role as a key national economic integration: Chongqing and Chengdu hub in land and water logistics. Chongqing can are fiercely competing to be the logistics hub and increase its economic growth and participate in gateway for China’s southwest region, potentially global economic flows by acting as a gateway to leading to outcomes that are suboptimal for regional corridors that are supported by three- integrated regional development. dimensional connectivity. Overview CHONGQING 2035 / 25 Connectivity transformation I: Build a major supported by efficient transportation systems; this logistics hub supported by integrated land, will build a much stronger and broader base for air, and water transportation networks the ASEAN region and beyond. Specific actions to promote cooperation may include the following: Chongqing should leverage its location at the confluence of land, air, and water transport 1. Developing a joint development strategy networks. Inland waterway transport is a encompassing economic planning, investment, unique feature of Chongqing’s freight transport spatial strategy, and transport system. Despite the constraints of Yangtze River 2. Establishing satellite cities along the corridor to transportation, Chongqing can focus on the promote the spatial agglomeration of industries, intermodal capacity of its port as a transshipment and to accelerate the flow of goods, population, center and as an inland link to major downstream and information ocean ports.19 Moreover, linking Chongqing’s ports to 3. Strengthening high-level coordination between the rail route to Europe will strengthen Chongqing’s Chongqing, Sichuan, and Chengdu role as a hub for container traffic between Chongqing and global export markets. Interventions Connectivity transformation III: Strengthen that could promote Chongqing’s development as a Chongqing’s digital infrastructure major logistics hub are shown in figure 10. In today’s world, physical connectivity is not enough. The exponential growth of data Connectivity transformation II: Promote is transforming every aspect of the economy, regional economic integration, including including industrial and logistic processes. In global through the Chengdu-Chongqing corridor cities, firms move to where they can access high- Moving away from competition to cooperation can speed broadband infrastructure. The digitization produce win-win outcomes for both Chongqing and of industrial production will require Chongqing to Chengdu. Both Chongqing and Chengdu can benefit massively invest in its digital connectivity and bring from their integration into an economic corridor its broadband speeds up to the levels of global cities. FIGURE 10 Interventions That Enable Chongqing to Develop as an Integrated Multimodal Logistics Hub. An important logistics and An international flight A national-level multimode trade center along Belt and transfer hub on the Eurasia transportation hub in the Road routes continent ASEAN region Consolidating Chongqing- Extending international Developing a multi-mode Xinjiang-Europe Corridor, air routes and making transportation hub in China-Russia Corridor, and adequate use of fifth western China, number one China-Central Asia Corridor freedom rights to create transport interchange in and other resources; and a regional international air southwestern China, and building an international transport hub a key terminal for China- hub targeting Europe and Europe trains Asia along the Belt and Road routes 26 / Spatial and Economic Transformation for a Global City Strategic pillar 3 is a cause of concern, given that much innovation is An innovation strategy to climb the value driven by private sector participation in the research chain and create the conditions for a space. In addition, Chongqing’s lack of leading skilled labor force universities and research laboratories puts the city at risk of missing out on future economic opportunities Spatial transformation and connectivity are (Box 10). important, but not enough, for Chongqing to achieve Vision 2035. The innovation economy, Innovation Transformation underpinned by talent and creativity, has become a driving force in transforming entire industries, often Chongqing should prioritize attracting and at an accelerated pace. Cities are making massive developing human capital to move from production investments in innovation and R&D to support and to innovation. To support Chongqing’s new path attract technology-driven industries that are leading to growth, the Chinese government has made the digital revolution and disrupting established innovation a priority in economic planning through markets. To succeed in this transformation and a number of large-scale initiatives. Made in China attract digital industries, a strong skilled labor force is 2025, for example, is a plan announced in 2015 to necessary. Human capital—the skills, knowledge, and improve and modernize China’s manufacturing in experience of the labor force—will be central for future 10 key sectors. This strategy aims at transforming economic development and innovation (Quintini 2014). Chongqing from a traditional city of production— Traditionally, Chongqing has been a city of one focused on the application of technology rather production, focusing on the application of than its development—into a driving force of the technology rather than its development and innovation economy. Building on existing strengths, innovation. However, while this approach has served such as market size and well-developed supply chains, the city well in the past, benchmarking has shown that Chongqing should aim to become an attractive Chongqing has relatively low R&D expenditure (Figure location for the development and manufacture of 11 and Figure 12), both by the municipality and by innovative products. To succeed in this transformation, industrial enterprises located in Chongqing. The latter a strong skilled labor force is necessary, and FIGURE 11 R&D Expenditure as a Portion of GDP FIGURE 12 Internal R&D Expenditure of Industrial Enterprises above a Designated Size in 2015 (10,000 RMB) 7 5,000,000 4,500,000 6 5.90% 4,000,000 5 3,500,000 3,000,000 4 3.80% 2,500,000 3.10% 3 2,000,000 2 1,500,000 1.70% 1,000,000 1 500,000 0 0 Beijing Tianjin Shanghai Chongqing Beijing Tianjin Shanghai Chongqing Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China 2016. Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China 2016. Overview CHONGQING 2035 / 27 BOX 10 How Global Cities Exploit Synergies between BOX 11 Shenzhen’s Strategy to Attract Innovative Universities and Start-Up Ecosystems Companies and Talent Some of the best universities in the world, such as Shenzhen, a city of 12.5 million people, is one of the Harvard and MIT, are concentrated in Boston, which is most innovative cities in China. However, as a “young” also a world leader in biotechnology, with many start- city, it has only two major universities and three key ups developing applications from university research research centers, a low number compared to adjacent programs. Montreal has also developed an ecosystem Guangdong Province, which has 83 universities and 40 of start-ups in artificial intelligence, thanks to the research centers.a By finding a good balance between robotics program of the Université de Montréal. Other its urgent priorities and its long-term plan, Shenzhen examples of cities exploiting the synergy between their has successfully created an ecosystem of creative universities and vibrant start-up ecosystems are San industries and technological innovation. Francisco, Los Angeles, Toronto, and Chicago. These First, the Shenzhen Municipal Government formulated a four cities have forged links between their universities long-term plan for the development of higher education of excellence and their innovative companies by in science and technology. However, it acknowledged offering multiple opportunities to entrepreneurs. that the problem could not be solved through local Among the most innovative and high-tech global cities, education investment alone in the short term. With Seoul has risen to prominence thanks to the synergy an open environment, the city made rapid progress in between its global giants of higher education and high scientific and technological innovation by attracting and technology. The city is ranked fourth globally for patent encouraging innovators such as institutions and talent applications, after Tokyo-Yokohama, Shenzhen–Hong from other regions. Kong, and San Jose–San Francisco. Seoul attracts more and more international investors and multinationals Source: Lu 2016. looking to tap into its highly skilled workforce, a. Shenzhen was a market town of 30,000 people in 1980 when it became innovation culture, and momentum. China’s first Special Economic Zone (SEZ). In 2017, after 37 years of sustained growth, it reached 12.5 million inhabitants and its GDP Source: Hales et al. 2017; Dutta, Lanvin, and Wunsch-Vincent 2017; Jones reached US$338 billion—surpassing the GDP of Guangzhou and Hong Lang LaSalle 2016. Kong SAR, and ranking third in China behind Shanghai and Beijing. developing and attracting human capital—the skills, Chongqing. In the short term, Chongqing should aim knowledge, and experience of the labor force—will be to attract existing talent through enhancing its talent- key to future economic development and innovation. seeking programs. In the long term, the city should aim to grow its own talent by developing world-class Innovation transformation I: Increase R&D universities to create the right skill mix. In this respect, expenditure Shenzhen is a good example to follow (Box 11). Chongqing should increase its R&D expenditure. Catching up with China’s average of 2 percent of Innovation transformation III: Build a large GDP invested in R&D should be a minimal goal; skilled workforce striving to reach levels similar to those of Korea Chongqing should aim to transform its workforce (4.15 percent) or Japan (3.49 percent) could be an into one with the highly qualified human capital aspirational target. that high-end industries need. To achieve this goal, it must improve its vocational education. Chongqing Innovation transformation II: Implement a can learn from Germany, whose dual education two-track solution to boost Chongqing’s system has allowed the country to build a large innovation capacity technically skilled labor force. It must also build on Short-term and long-term strategies should be the strengths that have enabled it to attract leading combined to ensure strong talent is abundant in global companies like Apple to China (Box 12). 28 / Spatial and Economic Transformation for a Global City BOX 12 Why Apple Prefers to Make Its iPhones in China At the Fortune Global Forum in Guangzhou in early For Cook, China offers a unique technological December 2017, Apple CEO Tim Cook explained the ecosystem: “China has moved into very advanced three key reasons why Apple manufactures its iPhones manufacturing, so you find in China the intersection of in China: millions of highly skilled manufacturing craftsman kind of skill, and sophisticated robotics and workers, tooling engineers, and software developers; the computer science world. That intersection, which a unique ecosystem combining craftsmanship, is very rare to find anywhere, . . . is very important to robotics, and computers; and firms with capabilities in our business because of the precision and quality level technological process co-development. that we like.” “The number one reason why we like to be in China is Lastly, companies like Apple are looking for co- the people. China has extraordinary skills. And the part development in engineering and development. As that’s the most unknown is there’s almost 2 million Cook states, there is significant interaction between application developers in China that write apps for the Apple and the Chinese manufacturers: “The process iOS App Store. These are some of the most innovative engineering and process development associated with mobile apps in the world, and the entrepreneurs our products require innovation in and of itself. Not that run them are some of the most inspiring and only the product but the way that it’s made, because entrepreneurial in the world,” Cook said. we want to make things in the scale of hundreds of millions, and we want the quality level of zero defects.” Source: Leibowitz 2017. Innovation transformation IV: Take advantage markets, professional services, and finance channels, of its large market and make the city an they offer affordable, practical, comprehensive, and important base for the application of open services for innovation and entrepreneurship. innovative products and technologies It is important to note a common feature among the creative industries: the innovation players are mostly Chongqing can leverage its sheer size and small and medium-size enterprises, whose size industrial base to become a laboratory for product complements the structure of Chongqing’s scientific development. Chongqing may not be a major cradle and technological industry. of innovation in the near future, but it could become an attractive location for the development and manufacture of innovative products. Chongqing can Strategic pillar 4 also rely on the sharing of innovations from other regions through transplantation and can create local A strategy that addresses potential value from them. labor force shortfalls and creates equal opportunities for all Innovation transformation V: Cultivate a Inclusive growth opportunities are especially creative industry and entrepreneurship important for cities seeking to develop their spaces for the development of small and knowledge economy. Human capital is an important medium enterprises base for economic development, particularly as The seeds of a start-up scene should be further economies shift toward advanced manufacturing and cultivated. In recent years, about 600 entrepreneurial high-value-added services. Whether a city can attract spaces (including those under construction) have high-caliber human capital depends on a number opened in Chongqing (China Center for International of factors, including opportunity, affordability, and Economic Exchanges 2017). Providing access to quality of life. Overview CHONGQING 2035 / 29 Chongqing Municipality has had net population economies. To avoid the downsides associated with outflows in the past, but there are signs that high inequality, and in particular the squandering the trend may start to reverse. Chongqing’s of human capital that is often associated with it, affordability—especially low rental and housing close attention to social inclusiveness is required as prices—make it an attractive destination for migration. Chongqing continues to grow. However, inequality, between urban and rural Improving Inclusivity residents, continues to be a challenge. The urban- rural income gap remains significant. On average, the This strategy aims to respond to population per capita disposable income of Chongqing’s urban challenges as manifested on multiple fronts: residents is RMB 27,239, while it is only RMB 10,505 looming labor shortages, an aging population, for rural residents. A significant urban-rural gap is and fairness issues. Delivering affordability and a also visible in education: in Chongqing as a whole, high quality of life for all its residents will be crucial the average enrolment of young people (aged 0–17) for Chongqing to attract and retain a high-quality in primary and secondary education is 67 percent, workforce, which will in turn enable high-productivity but in central Chongqing it is 98 percent, while in the economic activity in both manufacturing and services municipality’s northeastern and southeastern areas it and put the city in a strong position to weather is only 55 percent. There are similar differences in the the coming demographic shift. By encouraging the number of schoolteachers, with about twice as many free movement of people and jobs, Chongqing can schoolteachers for each registered 0- to 17-year-old become a more inclusive city while gaining an edge in central Chongqing as in other areas (Chongqing over other cities by attracting skilled labor. Municipal Bureau of Statistics and NBS Survey Office in Chongqing 2016). Improving inclusivity I: Ensure equality of opportunity across urban and rural districts Becoming a global city entails the risk of even with social services and a free flow of people more extreme inequalities within the city, which must be carefully managed. Inequality in some Mobility speeds up economic transformation. Labor global cities, such as London and New York (Box mobility and the free flow of people will be essential 13), is more extreme than in their respective national to accelerate the transformation of surplus low- BOX 13 Social Inequity in New York and London Income inequality is high and increasing in New York can be summarized in a few striking figures: 50 City. In 2006, the poorest 50 percent of New Yorkers percent of London’s wealth is owned by the richest earned 7.4 percent of the city’s total income. By 10 percent of its households, while the bottom 50 2014, this share had further fallen to only 5.6 percent. percent own just over 5 percent of the wealth. The Manhattan has the most extreme income inequality income of someone in the top 10 percent in London in the United States. The top 5 percent of households is eight times greater than that of someone in the earned US$864,394, or 88 times as much as the bottom 10 percent. According to Trust for London poorest 20 percent, according to the Census Bureau’s (Tinson et al. 2017), wealth inequality is even more American Community Survey. New York City also extreme—the wealth of someone in the top 10 percent recognized in 2014 that “despite a rise in employment, in London is 295 times greater than someone in the nearly half of New York City’s population is living near bottom 10 percent. Moreover, in 2017, 27 percent of poverty levels, (Oh 2014).” Londoners lived in poverty, down just slightly from 29 percent in 2011. Housing costs are the main factor Income and wealth inequalities are also much higher contributing to London’s high poverty rates. in London than anywhere else in the United Kingdom. While income inequality has declined in the last five Source: New York City Independent Budget Office 2017; City of New years, wealth inequality has increased. The situation York 2014; Tinson et al. 2017. 30 / Spatial and Economic Transformation for a Global City productivity and low-income rural jobs into medium- simultaneously ensure housing affordability and good to high-skill industrial jobs, as well as to equalize access to jobs, housing planning should be integrated opportunities and make rural and urban wages with economic and transportation planning. converge. Mobility must be supported by appropriate public Strategic pillar 5 policy. The profound transformation of the economic and social structure entailed by large-scale migration A green and low-carbon growth strategy will have to be supported by policies providing basic to decouple economic growth from social welfare for all citizens. All citizens, wherever resource use their origin, should benefit from social protection system, as well as care services adapted to the aging Cities can decouple their economic growth from population. The goal of equal opportunities and environmental impacts by bundling policies that basic security is therefore important, both to create simultaneously create a compact urban form, a more inclusive society and to support growth by enhance transit accessibility, and improve sectoral strengthening human capital. By providing social energy efficiency. Chongqing is at a crossroads— protection and equal opportunities, Chongqing will it will soon reach levels of GDP per capita at promote a more efficient distribution of workers and which world cities typically decouple economic hence increase labor productivity. growth from energy and resource use and their associated carbon emissions and pollution. Improving inclusivity II: Invest more in However, decoupling does not happen automatically. education and eliminate spatial and social It requires cities to adopt green growth policies. biases to expand opportunities for migrant The Chongqing economy is both energy-intensive workers and rural areas and emissions-intensive. The city emits about twice Education investment can reduce outmigration and as much CO2 per unit of GDP as Shanghai and Beijing spatial inequalities. To reverse outflow migration (Figure 13). These high emissions are driven by a trends and build a healthy, diverse economy that large share of heavy industries, a large construction provides opportunities at all levels of income and sector, and an energy mix dominated by fossil fuels skills, Chongqing should not only offer incentives to (72 percent), with coal alone representing about attract talents but also offer training and education 60 percent of total energy consumption (Figure 14) to the low-skilled and poor, including migrant (Chongqing Municipal Bureau of Statistics and NBS workers. To do so, Chongqing must follow other cities Survey Office in Chongqing 2016). This has resulted in and increase its investment in education. Shanghai, poor air quality, with the average concentration of fine for example, launched a policy to provide universal particulate matter well above WHO critical thresholds. compulsory education for migrant children. Chongqing’s urban form and superblock-driven expansion pattern are material-intensive and Improving inclusivity III: Maintain energy-intensive. An urban form that encourages a affordability and increase access to housing car culture generates more greenhouse gas (GHG) for migrants emissions and threatens air quality. Superblock To preserve its key competitive advantage, expansion entails significant increases in energy Chongqing should continue to ensure affordable embodied in infrastructure, infrastructure costs, housing and low costs of living. Relatively energy use, and CO2 emissions.20 Moreover, research low production and living costs have become in Jinan has shown that households living in Chongqing’s competitive advantages in building superblocks use at least twice as much energy for a thriving and inclusive economy. Chongqing transportation, heating, lighting, water, and the built Municipality needs to continue to strengthen the environment as those living in any other Chinese management of housing costs and improve the city’s urban form (Massachusetts Institute of Technology affordability to maintain these relative advantages. To and Tsinghua University 2010). Overview CHONGQING 2035 / 31 FIGURE 13 CO2 Emissions Per Capita and CO2 Green and Low-Carbon Growth Emissions Per Unit of GDP To decouple economic growth from energy 11 consumption and emissions, Chongqing should push 10 9.7 for green and low-carbon growth transformations in 9 energy, urban form, buildings, and transport. 8.2 8.2 8 7.8 7.8 7.4 7 Green and low-carbon growth I: Reduce the energy intensity of the economy and 6 decarbonize the energy mix by increasing the 5 share of renewables 4 4 3.5 The emission intensity of Chongqing’s economy 3 can be reduced through two levers: reducing the 2 energy intensity of GDP and reducing the emissions 1 intensity of energy use. The first is primarily 0 structural and requires Chongqing’s industry to move Beijing Shanghai Chongqing China up the value chain toward high-end manufacturing. average Improving the energy and resource efficiency of ● CO2 emissions per capita (tons) the building and construction sectors with efficient ● CO2 emissions per US$10,000 at PPP buildings and districts will be important contributions Source: Produced by the Urban Morphology and Complex Systems to bringing down energy intensity. Concerning the Institute for this report, based on Brookings Institution 2015, Economist second, deploying technological solutions to improve Intelligence Unit 2011, and International Carbon Action Partnership 2014. the technological efficiency of energy conversion Note: PPP = purchasing power parity. and use will be crucial. This step is in line with FIGURE 14 China’s national energy and environmental priorities, Energy Consumption Trend by Type of Energy which include decarbonizing the energy mix and 900 increasing the share of renewables. China intends to raise the share of nonfossil energy in primary energy 800 consumption to about 20 percent by 2030, so that nonfossil energy supplies by 2030 will be seven to Index Base Year 1997 = 100 700 eight times those of 2005. 600 Green and low-carbon growth II: Reduce 500 transport emissions by planning for a compact urban form 400 Urban compactness, which facilitates development 300 of car-light cities, can decrease transportation energy 200 use, emissions, pollution, and congestion. Compact city policies are an important lever to reduce transport 100 environmental impacts and deliver significant carbon and pollutant emissions reduction. In the urban 97 9 1 03 5 07 9 11 13 15 0 0 9 0 20 20 20 20 19 20 19 20 20 20 Year growth scenario conducted for this report (Box 8), the GHG and pollutant emissions associated with ● Total consumption of energy ● Coal automobile use are reduced by 40 percent compared ● Natural gas ● Oil ● Primary electricity to the Trend scenario. Like Singapore, Chongqing Source: Produced by the Urban Morphology and Complex Systems Institute for this report, based on Chongqing Municipal Bureau of should systematically move toward becoming a Statistics and NBS Survey Office in Chongqing 2016. car-light city through a combination of carrot and Note: All values indexed on a base of 100 in 1997. stick approaches, whereby driving private vehicles is 32 / Spatial and Economic Transformation for a Global City made more difficult (through the reduction of parking of emissions. These policies are already deployed facilities and increased toll charges, for example), while in cities around the world and can have significant public transit, walking, and cycling are encouraged or impacts. For example, Stockholm has experienced a subsidized. 33 percent reduction in greenhouse gas emissions from heating and electricity in recent decades, with Green and low-carbon growth III: Improve emissions falling from 3.8 tCO2e to 2.3 tCO2e per the energy and resource efficiency of the person between 1990 and 2010 (LSE Cities 2013). building sector with efficient buildings and districts Green and low-carbon growth IV: Leverage Chongqing’s automobile base to develop the The building sector can be an important driver fast-growing electric mobility sector of improved environmental performance in Chongqing. In 2009, building heating accounted Chongqing can secure a double win by doubling for 8 percent of Chongqing’s emissions, more than down on electric mobility. Greening urban transport road transport, at 7 percent (Liu 2016). Energy through electric mobility can simultaneously reduce efficiency measures—such as insulation, renewable emissions and serve as a potential driver of growth micro-generation, conversion of heating energy into in Chongqing’s automobile industry. Leveraging electricity (through air- and ground-source heat Chongqing’s existing automobile base, Chongqing pumps), and district heating from renewable energy can become a global leader in producing and using sources—can contribute significantly to the reduction electric cars. Photo: URF. Overview CHONGQING 2035 / 33 Conclusion Chongqing’s large administrative territory and population, thriving economy, and increasing integration into the global economy are huge assets in its bid to become a global city. Chongqing can manage looming risks and shape its growth trajectory to mirror that of other successful global cities by (1) shaping its spatial structure in a compact form; (2) increasing its connectivity and integration in the ASEAN region; (3) becoming a center of innovation with a highly skilled workforce; (4) managing the demographic transition and urban-rural integration, and creating a free-flowing large labor market; and (5) following a low- carbon growth pathway. The five major transformations highlighted in this report define short-, medium-, and long-term goals and provide an overall strategic direction to achieve Chongqing’s Vision 2035. A successful outcome requires strong leadership and commitment, careful sequencing, smooth and determined implementation, and close coordination among all relevant agencies. With the right strategy and careful implementation, Chongqing, already considered a fast-growing emerging global gateway, can achieve its goal of becoming one of the world’s most competitive cities by 2035. 34 / Spatial and Economic Transformation for a Global City Chongqing Hongyadong. Photo: jimmyan. Overview CHONGQING 2035 / 35 Annex 1 Key Indicators Used for Benchmarking Chongqing with Global Cities and the Region Chongqing presents two distinct scales: resident population of about 8.2 million, which is comparable to that of the Big Six global cities. ■■ Chongqing Municipality is comparable to a country in terms of administrative area and Depending on the dimensions, indicators used in population. The size of Chongqing Municipality is this benchmark are at the scale of the municipality 80 percent that of Korea, and its population is 60 or central Chongqing, or both when relevant. For percent of Korea’s population. Chongqing’s urban some indicators, such as social inclusiveness and population can also be compared to that of huge some connectivity indicators, international data metropolitan regions. Chongqing Municipality’s are available at country scale only and are used as urban population is half that of the Greater Tokyo a proxy for data at metropolitan region scale. This Area (38 million),21 two-thirds that of Seoul Capital approach is justified by the fact that (for example) Area (25.5 million),22 and 90 percent that of the Seoul Capital Area comprises half the population New York metropolitan area (20.32 million).23 of Korea, while the Tokyo metropolitan area has ■■ Central Chongqing has a huge administrative 30 percent of Japan’s population. Environmental area of 5,473 km2 in its nine districts (equivalent indicators are mostly compared at municipality and to the entire Shanghai municipality, 3.7 times the metropolitan region scales. size of Greater London, and seven times the size of New York City). However, only 10 percent of The benchmark analysis in this report is based on central Chongqing’s administrative land is built 30 indicators, grouped under 15 headings and four up (545 km2). In 2014, central Chongqing had a dimensions. 36 / Spatial and Economic Transformation for a Global City I. Spatial Structure and Urban Fabrics Indicator Chongqing International benchmarks Land expansion Hong Kong SAR: 40b Additional land per new urban resident, 2000–2009 (m2) 136a (central Chongqing) Singapore: 38b Density (people/km2) Seoul Capital Area: 11,880b 12,129c (municipality) Greater Tokyo Area: 8,062b Hong Kong SAR: 37,100d Population density (built-up area) Seoul Special City: 29,100e 13,248c (central Chongqing) Singapore: 18,248b Tokyo 23 wards: 15,346f Economic agglomeration Hong Kong SAR: 14,340d Job density (number of jobs/km2 of urban built-up area) 6,800c (municipality) Singapore: 13,000g Greater Tokyo Area: 0.31g 0.166 (municipality) c Seoul Capital Area: 0.34g New York metropolitan area: 0.23g GDP density (GDP/km2 of built-up area in billion US$/km2 Hong Kong SAR: 1.18h at current prices) Singapore: 1.07g 0.180 (central Chongqing) c Seoul Special City: 0.78i Greater London: 0.6g New York City: 0.94j Mixed-use and local jobs 36 percent of central UN-Habitat recommendation: Chongqing’s population lives 0.7 jobs per residentl Job/resident ratio on residential superblocks with only 0.3 jobs per residentk Accessibility of transit and alignment of densities with transit accessibility London: 53 percentm Percentage of people within walking distance to transit 20 percentk (central New York: 48 percentm (less than 1 km in global cities) Chongqing) Hong Kong SAR: 75 percentm London: 67 percentm Percentage of jobs within walking distance to transit 35 percent (central Chongqing) k New York: 58 percentm (less than 1 km in global cities) Hong Kong SAR: 84 percentm Urban fabric (assessed on comparable samples 1 square mile in size) London (City): 0.7o Lower Manhattan: 0.65o 6 (superblocks in central Hong Kong SAR Central: 0.34p Average block size (ha) Chongqing)n Singapore: 0.9p Seoul: 0.36o Tokyo Nihonbashi: 0.26o London (City): 188p Lower Manhattan: 132p 6 to 10 (public streets only)n Hong Kong SAR Central: 459q Density of intersections (number/km2) 50 (including inner superblock Singapore: 109q streets) Seoul: 333p Tokyo Nihonbashi: 386p Overview CHONGQING 2035 / 37 Indicator Chongqing International benchmarks London (City): 86p Lower Manhattan: 83p Hong Kong SAR Central: 53q Average distance between intersections (m) 400n Singapore: 115q Seoul: 33p Tokyo Nihonbashi: 43p Manhattan: 22.7r Street linear density (total length of streets in km per Hong Kong SAR Central: 36q 12n km2) Singapore: 17q Tokyo Nihonbashi: 30q a. Chongqing Municipal Bureau of Statistics and NBS Survey Office in j. Calculated on GDP at current price and administrative land. Chongqing 2016. k. Based on an assessment made by Calthorpe Associates for this b. Angel et al. 2016. report. c. Calculated from Chongqing Municipal Bureau of Statistics and NBS l. UN-Habitat 2014. Survey Office in Chongqing 2016. m. Based on calculations by LSE Cities in Rode et al. 2013. d. Based on data from Government of Hong Kong Planning n. Calculations made by China Sustainable Transportation Center for Department 2018. this report. e. Calculated on the built-up area from Seoul Metropolitan Government o. Based on data in Jacobs 1995. data. p. Jacobs 1995. f. Calculated from Tokyo Metropolitan Government data. q. Calculations made by the Urban Morphology and Complex Systems g. GDP at current price and built-up area from Angel et al. 2016. Institute for this report. h. Based on GDP at current price and on data from Government of r. Salat, Labbé, and Nowacki 2011. Hong Kong Planning Department 2018. i. Calculated on GDP at current price and on the built-up area from Seoul Metropolitan Government data. 38 / Spatial and Economic Transformation for a Global City II. Economic Competitiveness Indicator Chongqing International benchmarks Economic performance & structure New York metropolitan area: US$69,915 (2015)b Greater Tokyo Area: US$43,664 (2015)c GDP per capita (at current prices) US$8,908a (municipality 2016) Seoul Capital Area: US$34,355 (2015)d Singapore: US$54,940 (2015)e Hong Kong SAR: US$42,431 (2015)e New York metropolitan area: 1.1 percent (2017)b Tokyo Prefecture: -0.6 percent (2017)c GDP growth rate 9.3 percenta (municipality 2017) Seoul Capital Area: 3.1 percent (2017)d Singapore: 3.6 percent (2017)f Hong Kong SAR: 3.8 percent (2017)g New York metropolitan area: 8 percentb Percentage of secondary industry 44.2 percent (municipality a Tokyo Prefecture: 11.5 percentc in GDP 2016) Singapore: 26 percentf Hong Kong SAR: 7.7 percenth Labor force Labor productivity (GDP/worker) in Singapore: US$66,406i 15,720a (municipality) US$ at current prices Hong Kong SAR: US$61,485i Korea: 58 percentk Share of college graduates in the 27 percent by 2030 (projection labor market for China as a whole)j Innovation capacity Korea: 4.15 percente R&D expenditure as a share of GDP 1.57 percenta (municipality) Japan: 3.49 percente Connectivity 2,032 km at municipality scale Japan: 2,765 kmm High-speed rail network length (when mi [米] railway network Korea: 1,048 kmm is complete)l Greater London: 110 millionp New York JFK: 32 million International passenger annual air Seoul Capital Area: 57 million 5 million (2020 target)o trafficn (2017) Tokyo Narita: 32 million Hong Kong SAR: 70 million Singapore: 58 million New York metropolitan area: 98q Digital connectivity Korea: 121q Peak connection speed (IPv4) 45.9 (China)q (Mbps) Hong Kong SAR: 129.5q Singapore: 184.5q a. Chongqing Municipal Bureau of Statistics and NBS Survey Office in i. Calculated from employment and GDP data. Chongqing 2016. j. Yue 2016. b. Based on data from New York statistics. k. Lee 2017. c. Based on data from Tokyo Metropolitan Government. l. Chongqing Municipal Government 2017. d. Based on data from Seoul Metropolitan Government. m. Migiro 2018. e. Based on data from the World Bank. n. ACI 2018. f. Based on data from Singapore Government. o. Based on data from Chongqing Planning Bureau. g. Based on data from Census and Statistics Department, Hong Kong p. Figures for London include Heathrow and Gatwick. SAR. q. Akamai 2017. h. In 2016, manufacturing accounted for 1.1 percent of GDP for Hong Kong SAR. Electricity, gas and water supply, and waste management accounted for 1.4 percent. Construction accounted for 5.2 percent. Services accounted for 92.2 percent of the economy, with financing and insurance representing 17.7 percent. Overview CHONGQING 2035 / 39 III. Environmental Sustainability Indicator Chongqing Municipalitya International benchmarksb CO2 emissions and energy Greater Tokyo Area: 4.8 CO2 emissions per capita (tons) 8.22 Seoul Capital Area: 3.7 Greater Tokyo Area: 1.1 CO2 emissions per unit of GDP (US$10,000 at PPP) 7.8 Seoul Capital Area: 1 Energy consumption per unit of GDP (MJ/US$1,000 at Greater Tokyo Area: 1.2 Singapore: 3 12 current prices) Hong Kong SAR: 1.5 Water Water consumption (daily per capita in liters) 720 New York metropolitan area: 262 Air quality New York metropolitan area: 9 PM2.5 concentration 61 Greater Tokyo Area and Greater London: 15 Singapore and Paris: 18 Note: PPP = purchasing power parity. a. Data for Chongqing Municipality are calculated for this report from b. Data in this column are from Economist Intelligence Unit (2011). Chongqing Municipal Bureau of Statistics and NBS Survey Office in Chongqing (2016). IV. Social Inclusiveness Indicator Chongqing Municipalitya International benchmarksb Education Public government spending on education as Korea: 6.26 percent 3.21 percent percentage of GDP Japan: 4.43 percent Public government spending on education as share of Korea: 14.5 percent 13 percent public expenses Singapore: 19.9 percent Korea: US$19,900 Public education expenditure per student US$1,337 Japan: US$27,960 Health care Singapore: US$3,578 Total health care expenditure per capita at PPP US$256 Japan: US$3,741 Government health care expenditure as a share of GDP 1.72 percent Japan: 8.6 percent Note: PPP = purchasing power parity. a. Data for Chongqing Municipality are calculated for this report from b. International benchmarks are based on data from the World Bank. Chongqing Municipal Bureau of Statistics and NBS Survey Office in Chongqing (2016). 40 / Spatial and Economic Transformation for a Global City Traditional alley in Chongqing. Photo: stockinasia. 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First-tier Chinese cities include Beijing, Shanghai, agglomeration economies, and tend to cluster in a Guangzhou, and Shenzhen. limited number of cities (Sassen 2005). 3. In 2011, China’s State Council set out the vision for 11. Populations and areas are as follows: Tokyo’s 23 several major Chinese cities, including Chongqing, to wards that form the city’s core—9.37 million in 2016; become international metropolises whose influence 619 km2; Seoul Special City—9.84 million in 2018; could radiate to the region and play a leading role 605 km2; Singapore—5.6 million in 2018; 719.9 km2; globally. Hong Kong SAR—7.347 million in 2016; 2,754 km2; 4. See President Xi Jinping’s report at the 19th National Greater London—8.778 million in 2016; 1,569 km2; Congress at http://www.xinhuanet.com/english/ and New York City—8.538 million in 2016; 789 km2. special/2017-11/03/c_136725942.htm. During the 12. Superblocks are large blocks served by wide first stage, from 2020 to 2035, the country is meant arterial streets; they are characterized by single-use to achieve modernization and become a leader in zoning that separates residential and commercial innovation. During the second stage, from 2035 to areas and are oriented primarily to cars rather than 2050, it is meant to become a global power. pedestrians. 5. The real economy refers to the part of the economy 13. The finding is according to an assessment made by concerned with actual produced goods and services, Calthorpe Associates for this report. as opposed to the part of the economy concerned with buying and selling on the financial markets. 14. UN-Habitat (2014) recommends at least 80 to 100 intersections and 18 km of streets per km2. 6. Currently, Chongqing’s tertiary sector contributes to 48.9 percent of GDP, with financial services 15. The two dimensions can be defined as follows: accounting for only 8.9 percent. specialization refers to the proportion of employment or output of Chongqing’s most 7. The per capita disposable income of Chongqing’s important industry or industries; diversification urban residents is RMB 27,239, while it is only RMB refers to the number of different industries and their 10,505 for rural residents. size in relation to the economy’s total size. Together, these indicators thus reflect the variety or balance 8. See United Nations, “Goal 11: Make Cities Inclusive, of Chongqing’s industrial base. Safe, Resilient and Sustainable,” https://www.un.org/ sustainabledevelopment/cities/. 16. An aging society is generally understood as one in which 10 percent of the population is over the 9. In the leading global indices, six cities stand out. age of 60, or 7 percent of the population is 65 and They include the traditional megacities of London, above. New York, Paris, and Tokyo, as defined by JLL’s Commercial Attraction Index (Jones Lang LaSalle 17. Singapore developed from a third world to a first 2014); and this quartet has been more recently joined world country, ranked among the top six global by Hong Kong SAR and Singapore. The cities in this cities, in a span of less than 50 years. Singapore group, known as the “Big Six,” are often described has built on its favorable geographical location as the “command and control centers” of the world and has established a strong network of air economy (Clark, Moonen, and Couturier 2015). and sea routes, supported by a conducive and 46 / Spatial and Economic Transformation for a Global City cosmopolitan business environment. Singapore has Urban Morphology and Complex Systems Institute also developed innovative solutions to overcome its (Salat 2016; Salat, Bourdic, and Kamiya 2017) to land and resource constraints and has made itself a calculate the elasticity of water, wastewater, and livable and multicultural city. street network lengths and costs per capita with regard to average residential density. Reducing the 18. The full study is published separately as Chongqing density by half generally increases water network 2035: Urban Growth Scenarios. costs per capita by 72 percent and street networks 19. Using river transport in the Yangtze River for costs per capita by 117 percent. shipping is cost effective. By combining river and 21. The Greater Tokyo Area is the most populous sea modes, this route has the lowest total cost of metropolitan area in the world, consisting of the transportation among all multimodal routes. To fully Kantō region of Japan, which includes the Tokyo reap this cost advantage, interregional cooperation Metropolis, as well as the prefecture of Yamanashi along the Yangtze River is needed to improve in the neighboring Chūbu region. In Japanese, it efficiency throughout the Chongqing-Shanghai is referred to by various terms, one of the most waterway. Goals should include increasing the common being National Capital Region. efficiency of the current service networks and the handling capacity in some intermediate ports. 22. The Seoul Capital Area (SCA) is the metropolitan area of Seoul, Incheon, and Gyeonggi-do located in 20. As a proxy for the cost of infrastructure, the northwest Korea. length of streets per unit of generated GDP increases significantly between (for example) 23. The New York metropolitan area, also referred to Yuzhong walkable mixed-use areas and Jiulongpo as the Tri-State Area, includes New York City, Long superblocks. Studies on road networks (Ingram and Island, and the mid- and lower Hudson Valley in Liu 1997) and urban water and wastewater networks the state of New York; the five largest cities in New (Müller et al. 2013) suggest that per capita network Jersey—Newark, Jersey City, Paterson, Elizabeth, length and material stocks tend to increase with and Edison—and their vicinities; and six of the lower urban density. Müller et al. (2013) computed seven largest cities in Connecticut—Bridgeport, data on a representative sample of about 40 cities, New Haven, Stamford, Waterbury, Norwalk, and which have been mathematically analyzed by the Danbury—and their vicinities. Photo: onlyyouqj.