The World Bank Development of systems to prevent forest fires and monitor vegetation cover in the Brazilian Cerrado (P143185) REPORT NO.: RES37897 RESTRUCTURING PAPER ON A PROPOSED PROJECT RESTRUCTURING OF DEVELOPMENT OF SYSTEMS TO PREVENT FOREST FIRES AND MONITOR VEGETATION COVER IN THE BRAZILIAN CERRADO STRATEGIC CLIMATE FUND – FOREST INVESTMENT PROGRAM GRANT APPROVED ON MARCH 28, 2016 TO FUNDAÇÃO DE DESENVOLVIMENTO DA PESQUISA (FUNDEP) ENVIRONMENT & NATURAL RESOURCES LATIN AMERICA AND CARIBBEAN Regional Vice President: Axel van Trotsenburg Country Director: Paloma Anos Casero Regional Director: Anna Wellenstein Practice Manager: Valerie Hickey Task Team Leader: Bernadete Lange The World Bank Development of systems to prevent forest fires and monitor vegetation cover in the Brazilian Cerrado (P143185) ABBREVIATIONS AND ACRONYMS BIP Brazil Investment Plan of the Forest Investment Program CIF Climate Investment Fund CO2 Carbon Dioxide DETER Real-time deforestation detection system (Sistema de Detecção do Desmatamento em Tempo Real) FIP Forest Investment Program FISC Fire Ignition Spread and Carbon Model FUNDEP Research Development Foundation (Fundação de Desenvolvimento da Pesquisa) GHG Greenhouse gas emissions INPE National Institute for Space Research (Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais) MAPA Ministry of Agriculture, Livestock and Food Supply (Ministério da Agricultura, Pecuária e Abastecimento) MCTIC Ministry of Science, Technology, Innovation and Communication (Ministério da Ciência, Tecnologia, Inovações e Comunicações) MMA Ministry of Environment (Ministério do Meio Ambiente) PRODES Program for Measuring Deforestation in the Amazon RF Results Framework SCF Strategic Climate Fund UFG Federal University of Goiás (Universidade Federal de Goiás) UFMG Federal University of Minas Gerais (Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais) The World Bank Development of systems to prevent forest fires and monitor vegetation cover in the Brazilian Cerrado (P143185) BASIC DATA Product Information Project ID Financing Instrument P143185 Investment Project Financing Original EA Category Current EA Category Not Required (C) Not Required (C) Approval Date Current Closing Date 28-Mar-2016 29-May-2020 Organizations Borrower Responsible Agency Ministerio da Ciencia, Tecnologia e Inovacao Fundacao de Desenvolvimento da Pesquisa (FUNDEP) (MCTI),Fundacao de Desenvolvimento da Pesquisa Project Development Objective (PDO) Original PDO The objective of the Project is to enhance the Member Country's institutional capacity in monitoring deforestation, in providing information on fire risks, and in estimating related GHG emissions in the Cerrado. OPS_TABLE_PDO_CURRENTPDO Summary Status of Financing Net Ln/Cr/Tf Approval Signing Effectiveness Closing Commitment Disbursed Undisbursed TF-A1787 28-Mar-2016 06-Apr-2016 22-Jun-2016 29-May-2020 9.25 4.23 5.02 Policy Waiver(s) Does this restructuring trigger the need for any policy waiver(s)? No The World Bank Development of systems to prevent forest fires and monitor vegetation cover in the Brazilian Cerrado (P143185) I. PROJECT STATUS AND RATIONALE FOR RESTRUCTURING A. PROJECT STATUS 1. The Brazil Investment Plan (BIP), endorsed by the Forest Investment Program (FIP) Subcommittee in May 2012, seeks to promote sustainable land use and forest management improvement in the Cerrado, contributing to reducing pressure on the remaining forests, reducing GHG emissions and increasing CO2 sequestration. The BIP coordinates efforts by the Ministries of Environment (MMA); Science, Technology, Innovation and Communication (MCTIC); and Agriculture, Livestock and Food Supply (MAPA), with the aim to maximize impact of sectoral policies to reduce deforestation in the Cerrado biome by improving environmental management in anthropized areas and producing and disseminating environmental information. 2. The Development of Systems to Prevent Forest Fires and Monitor Vegetation in the Cerrado Brazilian Biome Project (FIP: Monitoring) aims at the systematic and continuous generation of information on deforestation, forest degradation, land use, and the development of early-warning system for preventing forest fires. Accurate, up-to-date, high-quality information should also contribute to enabling the environment. The Project is acting in synergy with the ongoing efforts and other BIP projects and will contribute to the achievement of objectives of both the National Policy on Climate Change. 3. The FIP: Monitoring Project was approved on March 28, 2016 and declared effective on June 22, 2016. This Project is funded by a FIP Grant in the amount of US$9.25million. The Project has three components: (i) deforestation monitoring; (ii) information systems on forest fire risk and GHG emissions estimation; and (iii) project management, monitoring and evaluation. 3. The project is being implemented by MCTIC in partnership with National Institute for Space Research (INPE), Federal University of Goiás (UFG), and Federal University of Minas Gerais (UFMG). 4. Technical activities are ongoing: (i) development of tools to customize a modeling platform (EGO Dynamics); (ii) development of cartographic bases for the development of a modeling system for Cerrado; (iii) web-GIS project to estimate the accuracy and precision of deforestation polygons; and (iv) time series analysis based on satellite images. 5. The Cerrado Biome annual deforestation rates for 2015-2016, 2016-2017 and 2017-2018, based on satellite imagery, were completed and are available at http://www.dpi.inpe.br/fipcerrado. 6. The forest fire products supported by the project are available at: http://www.inpe.br/queimadas/portal 7. The Project coordination is successfully carrying out all managerial and operational procedures as well as interinstitutional communication needed to coordinate, implement and monitor the Project. Currently, the Project has reached a good implementation pace, with the necessary staff and consultants working in the Project. The managerial staff has been trained by the Bank and has been executing Project activities successfully. The World Bank Development of systems to prevent forest fires and monitor vegetation cover in the Brazilian Cerrado (P143185) 8. To date the Project has disbursed US$4.23million (45.69% of the total Grant amount), and an additional of 38% of the remaining funds have been committed in long-term contracts for technical assistance; this brings the total disbursements plus commitments to 66.29%. 9. Project Management and Monitoring and Evaluation has also been rated Satisfactory, and Financial Management, Procurement and Counterpart Funding were rated Moderately Satisfactory. The overall safeguards compliance is rated Satisfactory and no major safeguards issue has been identified. B. RATIONALE FOR RESTRUCTURING 10. The Mid Term Review, completed in May 2019, recommended a 10-month extension of Closing Date from May 29, 2020 to March 29, 2021, to compensate for the delay in starting implementation, to complete originally planned activities, and to strengthen monitoring of the indicators (revise the current Result Framework to better capture the Project outcomes and results satisfactorily), and to deliver one more deforestation map (year 2019-2020). 11. Grant Closing Date extension. An extension of Closing Date is being requested to: a) compensate for the initial delay in starting the delivery of the project products, due to two main reasons: i. this is the first project that Fundep, the implementing agency for the Project, works with the Bank, and they faced difficulties in following Bank's procedures, and guidelines, and there were some challenges to adequate its documents and processes to the Bank's requirements and to start to hire/contract consultants and services, and ii. Fundep did not have sufficient staff dedicated to the project to coordinate the various technical partners at the beginning which also caused some delays in responding to all demands at first; and b) deliver one more year of deforestation map for the Cerrado region (2019-2020), which will subside the mapping analyses for the other FIP Projects under implementation, namely: FIP CAR (P143334) and FIP Rural Landscapes (P164602). 12. Adjustment of the Results Framework (RF). Proposed adjustments to the RF maintain the ambition of the Project, allow to better capture Project results and outcomes. While the PDO remains the same, the Results Framework will be adjusted because: (i) the current RF does not fully capture the theory of change supported by the Project; (ii) one intermediate indicator prove to be no longer relevant; (ii) one intermediate indicator end-value target needs to be reduced, due to external factors that impacted the planned activities; and (iii) one intermediate indicator end-value target was increased, due to the proposed extension of Closing Date. The adjustment of RF will facilitate a broad evaluation of the Projects' results and intermediaries' indicators. Proposed adjustments and their specific rationale are detailed in the RF attached to this Restructuring Paper. 13. The proposed extension of Closing Date is based on the official request from the FUNDEP, dated July 9, 2019, which endorses the request from MCTIC, dated July 3, 2019. 14. The restructuring fully complies with the Bank Directive for Investment Project Financing. The project is not subject to suspension of disbursement and the Borrower does not have any outstanding audit reports and none are unsatisfactory to the Bank. 15. The current scenario is positive, FUNDEP and technical partners are well trained and capable of implementing the activities, and all activities that have been planned are under implementation. The Bank team is confident that these additional 10-months will contribute to the achievement of the Project's objective and the Brazil Investment Plans' overall goals. The World Bank Development of systems to prevent forest fires and monitor vegetation cover in the Brazilian Cerrado (P143185) II. DESCRIPTION OF PROPOSED CHANGES 16. Proposed changes include: (i) grant Closing Date extension by 10 months; (ii) disbursement estimates adjustments; and (iii) Project Result Framework adjustment. 17. A 10-month extension of Closing Date, to March 29, 2021, is the first loan Closing Date extension sought. The Project Implementation Unit confirmed that this additional implementation time is sufficient to achieve the Project additional targets. 18. Disbursement schedule will be updated to consider the accumulated delay of the project implementation since the beginning of the Project up to the time at the restructuring and the proposed extension of the grant Closing Date. 19. While the Project design underpinning theory of change remains the same, most project indicators have been refined to be more specific and measurable, with no substantial change in what they measure. The main changes proposed to the RF include the following (See details in Section IV, Detailed changes): a. The end-target date for all results indicators have been revised in consistency with the proposed new grant Closing Date, March 29, 2021. b. The description of intermediate result indicator: "Annual deforestation maps on the scale of 1:250.000 are publicly available (PRODES-Cerrado)" end target is increased to add one year, due the Closing Date extension, and the indicator description is refined as follow: "The PRODES-Cerrado deforestation data available at INPE's Cerrado web portal for the following years: 2015-2016, 2016-2017, 2017-2018, 2018- 2019 and 2019-2020. PRODES reference year is August 1st - July 31st. Data from the previous year must be published by the end of October of the subsequent year. The reporting will also include progress reports on the development and operationalization of the PRODES-Cerrado system." c. The indicator, the unit of measure and the description of intermediate result indicator "Deforestation data on the scale of 1:500,000 is delivered daily to deforestation control agencies and monthly to the public (DETER-Cerrado)", is revised as follow: Indicator: Deforestation data on the scale of 1:500,000 is delivered to the public (DETER-Cerrado)"; Unit of measure: Yes or No; and description: "INPE will make available all images, maps and statistics of DETER-Cerrado in the internet weekly (http://terrabrasilis.dpi.inpe.br/). " d. The end target of intermediate result indicator "Off-line fire ignition and spread risk (FISC) model is piloted in selected conservation areas", is revised to reduce from 4 to 3 due to implementation arrangements and limitations of selected conservation unit partners. Modeling forest fire behavior is an important task that can be used to assist in fire prevention and suppression operations in conservation units. This piloting aims to build new empirical models to predict the fire rate of spread, flame length and fuel consumption for such vegetation. Currently, UFMG is adapting a fire ignition, spread and carbon model to the Cerrado, and applying such model in three selected conservation units as a fire management tool. Experimental burns were done, where the main fuel characteristics and weather variables that influence fire behavior were controlled and/or measured in each experiment. The three selected conservation units are: Serra do Cipó National Park (Parque Nacional da Serra do Cipó); Chapada dos Veadeiros National Park (Parque Nacional da Chapada dos Veadeiros) and Serra da Canastra National Park (Parque Nacional da Serra da Canastra). Project team argue that the number of conservation units should be revised due limitations on time to engage with an additional conservation unit. The intermediate result indicator "Independent The World Bank Development of systems to prevent forest fires and monitor vegetation cover in the Brazilian Cerrado (P143185) reports on the quality of the project products" is being dropped because it is not well written and relevant any longer to Project activities. Technical evaluations of PRODES Cerrado products developed under the Project are being conducted regularly by experts as part of the process. These assessments aim to ensure the technical quality of products. Furthermore, the Federal University of Goiás (UFG), which is part of the project, has developed and implemented a set of metrics from which quality of deforestation rating data produced by INPE (PRODES Cerrado) is being verified. UFG has developed metrics and protocols for deforestation map quality assessments. So far, the results are showing a high level of accuracy (90-95%). In this context, this indicator is being dropped due to its irrelevance and as the quality of the PRODES Cerrado data is being assessed by the UFG. e. The unit of measure of intermediate result indicator "On-line fire ignition and fire spread risk (FISC) data is published on INPE’s website.", is revised to: Yes or No, because this indicator is based on a scoring system according to specified criteria, and its progress could not be measured through percentage. "Number of completed steps required to develop the system, as follows: Step 1. Offline operational version of the system for a sub-area of the Cerrado; Step 2. Offline operational version of the system for the entire Cerrado biome based on historical data; Step 3. Alfa version of the system online using near-real time data; Step 4. Beta version of the system online tested for a selected group of users; Step 5. Operational version of the system online publicly available." f. A new indicator is being added, "Share of users satisfied with data provided by the project". This indicator is proposed to understand how the information produced under the project is used, its impact and to capture the quality/satisfaction of the training activities. This indicator will take the form of a scorecard based on criteria relating to the nature of data and training provided and their quality, and mechanisms and processes that seek to ensure information access across relevant institutions. Data will be collected through evaluation based on completion of the scorecard at the end of project. The World Bank Development of systems to prevent forest fires and monitor vegetation cover in the Brazilian Cerrado (P143185) III. SUMMARY OF CHANGES Changed Not Changed Results Framework ✔ Loan Closing Date(s) ✔ Disbursement Estimates ✔ Implementation Schedule ✔ Implementing Agency ✔ DDO Status ✔ Project's Development Objectives ✔ Components and Cost ✔ Cancellations Proposed ✔ Reallocation between Disbursement Categories ✔ Disbursements Arrangements ✔ Overall Risk Rating ✔ Safeguard Policies Triggered ✔ EA category ✔ Legal Covenants ✔ Institutional Arrangements ✔ Financial Management ✔ Procurement ✔ Other Change(s) ✔ Economic and Financial Analysis ✔ Technical Analysis ✔ Social Analysis ✔ Environmental Analysis ✔ The World Bank Development of systems to prevent forest fires and monitor vegetation cover in the Brazilian Cerrado (P143185) IV. DETAILED CHANGE(S) OPS_DETAILEDCHANGES_LOANCLOSING_TABLE LOAN CLOSING DATE(S) Original Revised Proposed Proposed Deadline Ln/Cr/Tf Status Closing Closing(s) Closing for Withdrawal Applications TF-A1787 Effective 29-May-2020 29-Mar-2021 29-Jul-2021 OPS_DETAILEDCHANGES_DISBURSEMENT_TABLE DISBURSEMENT ESTIMATES Change in Disbursement Estimates Yes Year Current Proposed 2016 50,662.25 0.00 2017 683,843.25 849,282.66 2018 900,000.00 1,067,532.40 2019 3,000,000.00 1,712,556.97 2020 3,000,000.00 2,500,000,000.00 2021 0.00 2,400,000,000.00 2022 0.00 123,767.25 . The World Bank Development of systems to prevent forest fires and monitor vegetation cover in the Brazilian Cerrado (P143185) . Results framework COUNTRY: Brazil Development of systems to prevent forest fires and monitor vegetation cover in the Brazilian Cerrado Project Development Objectives(s) The objective of the Project is to enhance the Member Country's institutional capacity in monitoring deforestation, in providing information on fire risks, and in estimating related GHG emissions in the Cerrado. Project Development Objective Indicators by Objectives/ Outcomes RESULT_FRAME_TBL_PDO Indicator Name DLI Baseline Intermediate Targets End Target 1 2 3 4 5 Enhance Brazil Institutional capacity to monior deforestation in the Cerrado Biome Information on deforestation in the Cerrado is regularly made No No No Yes Yes Yes Yes available to the public and relevant institutions (Yes/No) Rationale: - End-target completion date changed considering the revised closing date, no changes on substance. - Indicator description detailed but nature unchanged : "Cerrado biome deforestation rating published annually in the year immediately by October (PRODES- Action: This indicator has Cerrado).PRODES-Cerrado deforestation data available at INPE's site for the following years: 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019. The near-real time been Revised deforestation detection information (DETER-Cerado) made available to relevant institutions and the general public (monthly)." Government institutions in 0.00 0.00 10.00 15.00 15.00 15.00 15.00 charge of policy, The World Bank Development of systems to prevent forest fires and monitor vegetation cover in the Brazilian Cerrado (P143185) RESULT_FRAME_TBL_PDO Indicator Name DLI Baseline Intermediate Targets End Target 1 2 3 4 5 deforestation control and fire prevention using the information on deforestation and fire risk in the Cerrado (Number) Rationale: - This indicator was reworded due a typo with an extra word ‘use’ . The original indicator was" Government institutions in charge of policy, deforestation control and fire prevention using use the information on deforestation and fire risk in the Cerrado" Action: This indicator has - End-target completion date revised considering the revised closing date. been Revised - The value of the end target is maintained. - Indicator description has been refined to be more specific and measurable at end target: "Final evaluation, including assessment on how the information is being used by these users and the quality of this information". Enhance Brazil 's institutional capacity to provide information on fire risks in the Cerrrado Biome (Action: This Objective has been Revised) Real-time information on potential fire spread in the No No No No Yes Yes Yes Cerrado is publicly available (Yes/No) Rationale: Action: This indicator has - End-target completion date revised considering the revised closing date. been Revised - The value of the end target is maintained. Improved information on forest fire risk is publicly No No Yes No Yes Yes Yes available (Yes/No) Action: This indicator has Rationale: been Revised - End-target completion date revised considering the revised closing date. The World Bank Development of systems to prevent forest fires and monitor vegetation cover in the Brazilian Cerrado (P143185) RESULT_FRAME_TBL_PDO Indicator Name DLI Baseline Intermediate Targets End Target 1 2 3 4 5 - The value of the end target is maintained. Enhance Brazil's intitutional capacity to estimate related GHG emisions in the Cerrado Biome GHG emissions estimates for the Cerrado are publicly No No No Yes Yes Yes Yes available. (Yes/No) Rationale: - This indicator was reworded due a typo a typo with an extra word ‘available’. The original indicator was": "GHG emissions estimates for the Cerrado available Action: This indicator has are publicly available. been Revised - End-target completion date revised considering the revised closing date. - The value of the end target is maintained. PDO Table SPACE Intermediate Results Indicators by Components RESULT_FRAME_TBL_IO Indicator Name DLI Baseline Intermediate Targets End Target 1 2 3 4 5 Deforestation monitoring Annual deforestation maps on the scale of 1:250.000 are publicly available 0.00 0.00 0.00 3.00 4.00 5.00 5.00 (PRODES-Cerrado) (Number) The World Bank Development of systems to prevent forest fires and monitor vegetation cover in the Brazilian Cerrado (P143185) RESULT_FRAME_TBL_IO Indicator Name DLI Baseline Intermediate Targets End Target 1 2 3 4 5 Rationale: - End-target completion date changed considering the revised closing date. The value of the end target is increased to include the annual deforestation map of 2019-2020, to be published by October 2020. Action: This indicator has - The indicator description was refined to: "The PRODES-Cerrado deforestation data available at INPE´s Cerrado web portal - been Revised http://terrabrasilis.dpi.inpe.br/app/dashboard/deforestation/biomes/cerrado/increments - for the following years: 2015-2016, 2016-2017, 2017-2018, 2018- 2019 and 2019-2020. PRODES reference year is August, 1st - July 31st. Data from the previous year must be published by the end of October of the subsequent year. The reporting will also include progress reports on the development and operationalization of the PRODES-Cerrado system as a whole." Deforestation data on the scale of 1:500,000 is No No No Yes Yes Yes Yes delivered to the public (DETER-Cerrado). (Yes/No) Rationale: - Indicator unit of measure was changed to "yes/no", considering that the DETER-Cerrado is generated weekly, and the numbers were not adequate to measure its delivery. - The original indicator was: "Deforestation data on the scale of 1:500,000 is delivered daily to deforestation control agencies and monthly to the public (DETER- Cerrado)". Action: This indicator has - The indicator description is refined according to specified criteria: "INPE will make available all images, maps and statistics of DETER-Cerrado in the internet been Revised weekly (http://terrabrasilis.dpi.inpe.br/app/map/alerts?hl=pt-br). " - End-target completion date changed considering the revised closing date. Information systems on forest fire risk and GHG emissions estimation New fire risk information products are available to 0.00 0.00 10.00 20.00 26.00 26.00 26.00 users on interactive The World Bank Development of systems to prevent forest fires and monitor vegetation cover in the Brazilian Cerrado (P143185) RESULT_FRAME_TBL_IO Indicator Name DLI Baseline Intermediate Targets End Target 1 2 3 4 5 communication devices (Number) Rationale: - End-target completion date changed considering the revised closing date. - The indicator description has been refined to be more specific and measurable: "At the end of project it will be track how the information is being used by Action: This indicator has these users and the quality of these products and confirm that this provides forest fire risk forecasting." been Revised - The value of the end target is maintained. Off-line fire ignition and spread risk (FISC) model is piloted in selected 0.00 0.00 2.00 3.00 3.00 3.00 conservation areas (Number) Rationale: - Number of selected protected areas where off-line FSC model has been piloted end-target value reduced from 4 to 3 due to implementation arrangements. Action: This indicator has - The selected protected areas are: Serra do Cipo National park (Parque Nacional da Serra do Cipó); Chapada dos Veadeiros Natioanl Park (Parque Nacional da been Revised Chapada dos Veadeiros) and Serrad a Canastra national park (Parque Nacional da Serra da Canastra). - End-target completion date changed considering the revised closing date. On-line fire ignition and fire spread risk (FISC) data is No No No No Yes Yes Yes published on INPE’s website. (Yes/No) Action: This indicator has Rationale: been Revised - End-target completion date changed considering the revised closing date. The World Bank Development of systems to prevent forest fires and monitor vegetation cover in the Brazilian Cerrado (P143185) RESULT_FRAME_TBL_IO Indicator Name DLI Baseline Intermediate Targets End Target 1 2 3 4 5 - The indicator unit of measure was revised to "Yes/No", since "percentage" could not capture the progress of its development. This indicator is based on a scoring system according to specified criteria: "Number of completed steps required to develop the system, as follows: Step 1. Offline operational version of the system for a sub-area of the Cerrado; Step 2. Offline operational version of the system for the entire Cerrado biome based on historical data; Step 3. Alfa version of the system online using near-real time data; Step 4. Beta version of the system online tested for a selected group of users; Step 5. Operational version of the system online publicly available." - The value of the end target is maintained. Project management, monitoring and evaluation Govt institutions provided w/ capacity buildg to 0.00 0.00 10.00 11.00 15.00 15.00 15.00 improve mgt of forest resources (Number) Rationale: - No change in indicator definition. The methodology for data collection is detailed. Action: This indicator has - End-target completion date changed considering the revised closing date. been Revised - The value of the end target is maintained. Independent reports on the quality of the project 0.00 0.00 1.00 2.00 3.00 3.00 products (Number) Rationale: Action: This indicator has - This indicator is dropped because it is not relevant any longer to Project activities. As part of the project activities, the Federal University of Goias (UFG) has been Marked for Deletion been developed and implemented a set of metrics from which a quality of deforestation rating data (PRODES Cerrado) are being verified with success. Share of users satisfied with data provided by the 0.00 65.00 65.00 project. (Percentage) The World Bank Development of systems to prevent forest fires and monitor vegetation cover in the Brazilian Cerrado (P143185) RESULT_FRAME_TBL_IO Indicator Name DLI Baseline Intermediate Targets End Target 1 2 3 4 5 Rationale: - This indicator is proposed to understand how the information produced under the project is used and the impact of it, and to capture the quality/satisfaction Action: This indicator is of the training activities. New - This indicator takes the form of a scorecard based on criteria relating to the nature of data and training provided and their quality, and mechanisms and processes that seek to ensure information access across relevant institutions. IO Table SPACE The World Bank Development of systems to prevent forest fires and monitor vegetation cover in the Brazilian Cerrado (P143185)