Document of The World Bank FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY Report No: PAD1095 PROJECT APPRAISAL DOCUMENT ON PROPOSED IDA GRANTS AND CREDITS IN THE AMOUNT OF SDR 10.00 MILLION (US$13.79 MILLION EQUIVALENT IDA) TO THE INDEPENDENT STATE OF SAMOA; AND IN THE AMOUNT OF SDR 7.70 MILLION (US$10.50 MILLION) TO THE KINGDOM OF TONGA; IN THE AMOUNT OF SDR 1.10 MILLION (US$1.50 MILLION EQUIVALENT IDA) TO THE REPUBLIC OF MARSHALL ISLANDS; AND IN THE AMOUNT OF SDR 1.10 MILLION (US$1.50 MILLION EQUIVALENT IDA) TO THE REPUBLIC OF VANUATU; AND IN THE AMOUNT OF SDR 2.70 MILLION (US$ 3.68 MILLION EQUIVALENT IDA) TO THE SECRETARIAT OF THE PACIFIC COMMUNITY; AND IN THE AMOUNT OF SDR 1.00 MILLION (US$ 1.32 MILLION EQUIVALENT IDA) TO THE PACIFIC ISLANDS FORUM SECRETARIAT; AND PROPOSED GRANTS FROM THE GLOBAL ENVIRONMENT FACILITY SPECIAL CLIMATE CHANGE FUND IN THE AMOUNT OF US$4.58 MILLION TO THE KINGDOM OF TONGA; AND IN THE AMOUNT OF US$0.90 MILLION TO THE PACIFIC ISLANDS FORUM SECRETARIAT AND; A PROPOSED GRANT FROM THE PILOT PROGRAM FOR CLIMATE RESILIENCE IN THE AMOUNT OF US$5.79 MILLION TO THE SECRETARIAT OF THE PACIFIC COMMUNITY; AND A PROPOSED GRANT FROM THE GLOBAL FACILITY FOR DISASTER REDUCTION AND RECOVERY IN THE AMOUNT OF US$1.50 MILLION TO THE KINGDOM OF TONGA; IN SUPPORT OF SIX PROJECTS UNDER A SERIES OF OPERATIONS PACIFIC RESILIENCE PROGRAM (PREP) IN THE TOTAL AMOUNT OF SDR 23.60 MILLION (US$32.29 MILLION EQUIVALENT) PROPOSED IDA GRANTS AND CREDITS AND THE TOTAL AMOUNT OF US$5.48 PROPOSED GRANTS FROM THE GLOBAL ENVIRONMENT FACILITY SPECIAL CLIMATE CHANGE FUND; US$5.79 PROPOSED GRANTS FROM THE PILOT PROGRAM FOR CLIMATE RESILIENCE; AND US$1.50 PROPOSED GRANTS FROM THE GLOBAL FACILITY FOR DISASTER REDUCTION AND RECOVERY May 26, 2015 Social, Urban, Rural and Resilience Global Practice East Asia and the Pacific Region This document has a restricted distribution and may be used by recipients only in the performance of their official duties. Its contents may not otherwise be disclosed without World Bank authorization. CURRENCY EQUIVALENTS (Exchange Rate Effective April 30, 2015) Currency Unit = SDR SDR 0.711 = USD 1 USD 1 = WST 2.27 USD 1 = TOP 2.06 USD 1 = VUV 104 USD 1 = FJD 2.00 FISCAL YEAR Samoa: July 1 – June 30 Tonga: July 1 – June 30 Vanuatu: January 1 – December 31 Republic of Marshall Islands: October 1 – September 30 Fiji: January 1 – December 31 ABBREVIATIONS AND ACRONYMS ADB Asian Development Bank AELP Africa Emergency Locust Project ASP Africa Stockpile Program CAS Country Assistance Strategy CCRIF Caribbean Catastrophic Risk Insurance Facility CERC Contingency Emergency Response Component CoSPAC Climate and Oceans Monitoring Program for the Pacific CPF Country Partnership Framework CPS Country Partnership Strategy CQS Consultants Qualifications CRICU Climate Resilience Investment and Coordination Unit CRIP Samoa Climate Resilience Investment Program CROP Council of Regional Organizations CRSP Climate Resilience Sector Project CSO Civil Society Organization DA Designated Account DMO Disaster Management Office in Samoa DRFI Disaster Risk Financing and Insurance DRM Disaster Risk Management EEZ Exclusive Economic Zone ESMF Environmental and social management framework ESSIP Environmental and Social Safeguards Instruments for the Pacific Island Countries ERR Economic Rate of Return EWS Early Warning System FA Finance Agreement i FM Financial Management FSM Federated States of Micronesia GCM Global Climate Model GDP Gross Domestic Product GEF Global Environment Facility GFDRR Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery GNI Gross National Income GRS Grievance Redress Service of the World Bank GoRMI Government of the Republic of Marshall Islands GoS Government of Samoa GoT Government of Tonga GoV Government of Vanuatu IA Implementing Agency IBRD International Bank for Reconstruction and Development IDA International Development Association IFR Interim Financial Report LCS Least-Cost Selection LDCF Least Developed Countries Fund M&E Monitoring and Evaluation MFEM Ministry of Finance and Economic Management in Vanuatu MFNP Ministry of Finance and National Planning in Tonga MEIDECC Ministry of Meteorology, Information, Energy, Disaster Management, Climate Change and Communications in Tonga MHEWS Multi-Hazard Early Warning System MNRE Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment in Samoa MoF Ministry of Finance, Samoa MTEF Medium Term Expenditure Framework MTR Midterm Review MWTI Ministry of Works, Transport and Infrastructure in Samoa NC National Coordinator NCB National Competitive Bidding NDMO National Disaster Management Office in Vanuatu NDMOs National Disaster Management Offices NEMO National Emergency Management Office in Tonga NEOC National Emergency Operations Centre in Samoa NGO Non-Government Organization NMHSs National Meteorological and Hydrological Services NPV Net Present Value NRD National Resources Department in Tonga NSC National Steering Committee O&M Operations and Maintenance PacRIS Pacific Risk Information System PAD Project Appraisal Document PCRAFI Pacific Catastrophe Risk Assessment and Financing Initiative PDNA Post Disaster Needs Assessment PDO Project Development Objective ii PIC Pacific Island Countries PIFS Pacific Islands Forum Secretariat PMU Project Management Unit POM Project Operations Manual PPCR Pilot Program for Climate Resilience PPN Policy and Practice Note PPP Purchasing Power Parity PREP Pacific Resilience Program PRP Pacific Resilience Partnership PSU Program Support Unit QBS Quality Based Selection QCBS Quality and Cost Based Selection QER Quality Enhancement Review RMI Republic of Marshall Islands RCU Regional Coordination Unit RPEC Regional Procurement Evaluation Committee RPF Resettlement Policy Framework RSC Regional Steering Committee RTEC Regional Technical Committee SCCF Special Climate Change Fund SISRI Small Island States Resilience Initiative SMD Samoa Meteorological Division SOPs Standard Operating Procedures SORT Systematic Operations Risk-Rating Tool SPC Secretariat of the Pacific Community SPCR Strategic Program on Climate Resilience SPREP Secretariat of Pacific Regional Environmental Program SRDP Strategy for Climate and Disaster Resilient Development in the Pacific SSS Single Source Selection TA Technical Assistance TAF/OFDA USAID Office of US Foreign Disaster Assistance TC Tropical Cyclone TCE Tropical Cyclone Evan TCI Tropical Cyclone Ian TEC Technical Committee TMD Tonga Meteorological Department TMS Tonga Meteorological Services TTL Task Team Leader TVET Technical and Vocational Education and Training VMDG Vanuatu Meteorology and Geohazards Department VSL Value of Statistical Life WIS World Meteorology Organization Information System WMO World Meteorological Organization WRD Water Resources Division in Samoa WTP Willingness to Pay iii Vice President: Axel van Trotsenburg Country Director: Franz Drees-Gross Senior Global Practice Director: Ede Ijjasz-Vasquez/Paula Caballero Practice Manager: Abhas Jha/Iain Shuker Task Team Leader: Denis Jordy Co-Task Team Leader: Michael Bonte-Grapentin iv PACIFIC RESILIENCE PROGRAM TABLE OF CONTENTS I. STRATEGIC CONTEXT.......................................................................................................... 1 A. Regional Context................................................................................................................... 1 B. Sectoral and Institutional Context ......................................................................................... 2 C. Higher Level Objectives to which the Program Contributes ........................................... 4 II. PROGRAM DEVELOPMENT OBJECTIVES (PDO) ............................................................. 6 A. PDO .................................................................................................................................. 6 B. Program beneficiaries ....................................................................................................... 6 C. PDO-Level Results Indicators .......................................................................................... 7 III. PROGRAM DESCRIPTION .................................................................................................... 7 A. Series of Projects .............................................................................................................. 7 B. Program Components ....................................................................................................... 8 Component 1: Strengthening Early Warning and Preparedness ............................................. 8 Component 2: Risk Reduction and Resilient Investments ...................................................... 8 Component 3: Disaster Risk Financing .................................................................................. 9 Component 4: Project and Program Management .................................................................. 9 C. Program Financing ........................................................................................................... 9 D. Lessons learned and Reflected in the Project Design .................................................... 11 IV. IMPLEMENTATION........................................................................................................... 12 A. Institutional and Implementation Arrangements ............................................................ 12 National Arrangements ......................................................................................................... 12 Regional Arrangements ........................................................................................................ 12 B. Results Monitoring and Evaluation ................................................................................ 13 C. Sustainability ........................................................................................................................ 13 V. KEY RISKS AND MITIGATION MEASURES ................................................................... 14 A. Overall Risk Rating and Explanation of Risks .................................................................... 14 VI. APPRAISAL SUMMARY ..................................................................................................... 16 A. Economic and Financial Analysis .................................................................................. 16 B. Technical ........................................................................................................................ 17 C. Financial Management ................................................................................................... 17 D. Procurement ................................................................................................................... 18 E. Environmental and Social Safeguards............................................................................ 19 F. Gender ................................................................................................................................ 20 v G. World Bank Grievance Redress ..................................................................................... 21 ANNEX 1: RESULTS FRAMEWORK AND MONITORING ................................................... 22 ANNEX 2: DETAILED PROGRAM DESCRIPTION ................................................................ 28 Component 1: Strengthening Early Warning and Preparedness ............................................... 28 Sub-Component 1.1: Investments in Early Warning and Preparedness ............................... 29 Sub-Component 1.2: Regional TA to strengthen impact forecasting and preparedness ...... 30 Component 2: Risk Reduction and Resilient Investments ........................................................ 30 Sub-component 2.1: Risk Reduction and Resilient Investment Planning and Preparation .. 31 Sub-Component 2.2: Regional Platform to Support Risk Reduction and Resilient Investment Planning.............................................................................................................. 31 Component 3: Disaster Risk Financing .................................................................................... 32 Sub-component 3.1: Disaster risk financing instruments ..................................................... 33 Sub-component 3.2: Development of Mutual Insurance Fund ............................................. 35 Component 4: Project and Program Management .................................................................... 36 Sub-component 4.1: Project Management ............................................................................ 36 Sub-component 4.2: Regional Program Management and Coordination ............................. 36 ANNEX 3: DETAILED PROJECT DESCRIPTION FOR SAMOA........................................... 37 I. Strategic Context ................................................................................................................ 37 II. Project Development Objective ..................................................................................... 38 III. Project Components ....................................................................................................... 38 A. Component 1: Strengthening Early Warning and Preparedness ............................... 38 B. Component 2: Risk Reduction and Resilient Investments ......................................... 41 C. Component 3: Disaster Risk Financing ...................................................................... 42 D. Component 4: Project and Program Management ...................................................... 45 ANNEX 4: DETAILED PROJECT DESCRIPTION FOR THE KINGDOM OF TONGA ........ 47 I. Strategic Context ................................................................................................................ 47 II. Project Development Objective ..................................................................................... 48 III. Project Components ....................................................................................................... 48 A. Component 1: Strengthening Early Warning and Preparedness ............................... 48 B. Component 2: Risk Reduction and Resilient Investments ......................................... 51 C. Component 3: Disaster Risk Financing ...................................................................... 52 D. Component 4: Project and Program Management ...................................................... 55 ANNEX 5: DETAILED PROJECT DESTRIPTION FOR THE REPUBLIC OF THE MARSHALL ISLANDS ............................................................................................................... 57 I. Strategic Context ................................................................................................................ 57 vi II. Project Development Objective ..................................................................................... 58 III. Project Components ....................................................................................................... 58 A. Component 1: Strengthening Early Warning and Preparedness ............................... 58 B. Component 2: Risk Reduction and Resilient Investments ......................................... 58 C. Component 3: Disaster Risk Financing ...................................................................... 58 D. Component 4: Project and Program Management ...................................................... 59 ANNEX 6: DETAILED PROJECT DESCRIPTION FOR THE REPUBLIC OF VANUATU .. 61 I. Strategic Context ................................................................................................................ 61 II. Project Development Objective ..................................................................................... 62 III. Project Components ....................................................................................................... 62 A. Component 1: Strengthening Early Warning and Preparedness ............................... 62 B. Component 2: Risk Reduction and Resilient Investments ......................................... 62 C. Component 3: Disaster Risk Financing ...................................................................... 62 D. Component 4: Project and Program Management ...................................................... 64 ANNEX 7: DETAILED PROJECT DESCRIPTION FOR REGIONAL ACTIVITIES.............. 65 I. Strategic context................................................................................................................. 65 II. Project Development Objective ..................................................................................... 66 III. Program Components ..................................................................................................... 67 A. Project Description for SPC ....................................................................................... 67 B. Project Description for PIFS....................................................................................... 74 ANNEX 8: IMPLEMENTATION ARRANGEMENTS .............................................................. 78 I. Institutional and Implementation Arrangements ............................................................... 78 1. National Implementation Arrangements .................................................................... 78 2. Regional Coordination and Implementation arrangements ........................................ 82 II. Financial Management, Disbursements and Procurement ............................................. 85 i. Financial Management. .................................................................................................. 85 ii. Disbursements ............................................................................................................ 86 iii. Procurement ................................................................................................................ 86 III. Environmental and Social Safeguards............................................................................ 95 ANNEX 9: ECONOMIC ANALYSIS ......................................................................................... 99 I. Background ........................................................................................................................ 99 II. Quantification of Economic Benefits ........................................................................... 100 III. Results of the Economic Analysis ................................................................................ 104 ANNEX 10: CONTRIBUTION OF PREP TO TWIN GOALS ................................................. 106 vii I. Poverty reduction ............................................................................................................. 106 II. Impact on Economic Growth ....................................................................................... 107 ANNEX 11: LESSONS LEARNED AND REFLECTED IN THE PREP DESIGN ................. 108 Lessons from the Pacific Region ............................................................................................ 108 ANNEX 12: IMPLEMENTATION SUPPORT PLAN .............................................................. 110 I. Summary of implementation support............................................................................... 110 II. Skill Mix Required ....................................................................................................... 111 III. Partners ......................................................................................................................... 111 viii PAD DATA SHEET Samoa Pacific Resilience Program (P154839) PROJECT APPRAISAL DOCUMENT EAST ASIA AND PACIFIC 0000009081 Report No.: PAD1443 Basic Information Project ID EA Category Team Leader(s) P154839 B - Partial Assessment Denis Jean-Jacques Jordy, Michael Bonte-Grapentin Lending Instrument Fragile and/or Capacity Constraints [ ] Investment Project Financing Financial Intermediaries [ ] Series of Projects [ X ] Project Implementation Start Date Project Implementation End Date 30-Oct-2015 30-Jun-2020 Expected Effectiveness Date Expected Closing Date 30-Oct-2015 30-Nov-2020 Joint IFC No Practice Senior Global Practice Country Director Regional Vice President Manager/Manager Director Abhas Kumar Jha Ede Jorge Ijjasz-Vasquez Franz R. Drees-Gross Axel van Trotsenburg Borrower: Independent State of Samoa Responsible Agency: Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment Contact: Suluimalo Amataga Penaia Title: CEO Telephone No.: (685) 67 200 Email: Amataga.penaia@mnre.gov.ws Responsible Agency: Ministry of Finance Contact: Lavea Tupa'imatuna Iulai Lavea Title: CEO Telephone No.: (685) 34332 Email: iulai.lavea@mof.gov.ws ix Project Financing Data(in USD Million) [ ] Loan [X] IDA Grant [ ] Guarantee [ ] Credit [ ] Grant [ ] Other Total Project Cost: 13.79 Total Bank Financing: 13.79 Financing Gap: 0.00 Financing Source Amount BORROWER/RECIPIENT 0.15 IDA Grant 13.79 Total 13.94 Expected Disbursements (in USD Million) Fiscal 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 0000 0000 0000 0000 Year Annual 1.17 4.27 6.57 1.12 0.66 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Cumulati 1.17 5.44 12.01 13.13 13.79 13.79 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 ve Institutional Data Practice Area (Lead) Social, Urban, Rural and Resilience Global Practice Contributing Practice Areas Climate Change, Environment & Natural Resources Cross Cutting Topics [X] Climate Change [ ] Fragile, Conflict & Violence [ ] Gender [ ] Jobs [ ] Public Private Partnership Sectors / Climate Change Sector (Maximum 5 and total % must equal 100) Major Sector Sector % Adaptation Mitigation Co-benefits % Co-benefits % Public Administration, Law, and Public administration- 30 100 Justice Water, sanitation and flood protection Water, sanitation and flood protection General water, sanitation 70 100 and flood protection sector x Total 100 I certify that there is no Adaptation and Mitigation Climate Change Co-benefits information applicable to this project. Themes Theme (Maximum 5 and total % must equal 100) Major theme Theme % Environment and natural resources Climate change 40 management Social protection and risk management Natural disaster management 60 Total 100 Proposed Development Objective(s) The objective of the Project is to strengthen early warning, resilient investments and financial protection of Samoa. Components Component Name Cost (USD Millions) Component 1: Strengthening Early Warning and 9.25 Preparedness Component 2: Risk Reduction and Resilient Investments 1.15 Component 3: Disaster Risk Financing 2.50 Component 4: Project and Program Management 0.89 Systematic Operations Risk- Rating Tool (SORT) Risk Category Rating 1. Political and Governance Moderate 2. Macroeconomic Moderate 3. Sector Strategies and Policies Substantial 4. Technical Design of Project or Program Substantial 5. Institutional Capacity for Implementation and Sustainability Substantial 6. Fiduciary Substantial 7. Environment and Social Moderate 8. Stakeholders Moderate 9. Other (external shocks, such as disasters) Substantial OVERALL Substantial Compliance Policy xi Does the project depart from the CAS in content or in other significant Yes [ ] No [ X ] respects? Does the project require any waivers of Bank policies? Yes [ ] No [ X ] Have these been approved by Bank management? Yes [ ] No [ ] Is approval for any policy waiver sought from the Board? Yes [ ] No [ X ] Does the project meet the Regional criteria for readiness for implementation? Yes [ X ] No [ ] Safeguard Policies Triggered by the Project Yes No Environmental Assessment OP/BP 4.01 X Natural Habitats OP/BP 4.04 X Forests OP/BP 4.36 X Pest Management OP 4.09 X Physical Cultural Resources OP/BP 4.11 X Indigenous Peoples OP/BP 4.10 X Involuntary Resettlement OP/BP 4.12 X Safety of Dams OP/BP 4.37 X Projects on International Waterways OP/BP 7.50 X Projects in Disputed Areas OP/BP 7.60 X Legal Covenants Name Recurrent Due Date Frequency Ensure that funds are allocated for X Yearly operation and maintenance of the MHEWS Description of Covenant Allocate adequate funds, on an annual basis, to cover the operation and maintenance costs of the multi- hazard early warning systems in amounts which the Association agrees are adequate for said purpose. Name Recurrent Due Date Frequency The Recipient shall prepare, and 29-Feb-2016 thereafter adopt a project operations manual Description of Covenant A Project Operational Manual is to be prepared and adopted no later than 4 months after effectiveness Name Recurrent Due Date Frequency A Service Agreement is to be signed 29-Feb-2016 between SPC and Samoa Description of Covenant The Recipient shall enter into and thereafter maintain, throughout the Project implementation period, a xii service agreement (“Service Agreement”) with the Secretariat of the Pacific Community Conditions Source Of Fund Name Type IDA Contingency Emergency Response Component Disbursement Description of Condition No withdrawal should be made for the contingency response subcomponent 3.1.1. until the Recipient has declared that an Eligible Crisis or Emergency has occurred, and the Association has agreed in writing and complied with all requirements set forth in Section I.E of this Schedule 2 to the Financing Agreement. Team Composition Bank Staff Name Role Title Specialization Unit Denis Jean-Jacques Team Leader Senior GENDR Jordy (ADM Environmental Responsible) Specialist Michael Bonte- Team Leader Senior Disaster GSURR Grapentin Risk Management Specialist Cristiano Costa e Silva Procurement Senior Procurement GGODR Nunes Specialist Specialist David Bruce Whitehead Financial Financial GGODR Management Management Specialist Specialist Habiba Gitay Team Member Senior GCCPT Environmental Specialist Marjorie Mpundu Counsel Senior Counsel LEGES Nathan Hale Team Member Program Assistant EACNF Nicholas John Valentine Team Member Consultant GSURR Ross James Butler Safeguards E T Consultant GSURR Specialist Samantha Jane Cook Team Member E T Consultant GFMDR Simone Lillian Esler Team Member E T Consultant GSURR Tevi Maltali Obed Team Member Disaster Risk GSURR Management Specialist Zhuo Yu Team Member Finance Officer WFALN Extended Team Name Title Office Phone Location xiii David Rogers Hydrometeorology Geneva Expert, Warning Systems Specialist Philippe De Naurois Consultant, Implementation arrangements Locations Country First Location Planned Actual Comments Administrative Division Samoa Tuamasaga Tuamasaga X Consultants (Will be disclosed in the Monthly Operational Summary) Consultants Required ? Consultants will be required xiv PAD DATA SHEET Tonga Pacific Resilience Program (P154840) PROJECT APPRAISAL DOCUMENT EAST ASIA AND PACIFIC 0000009081 Report No.: PAD1444 Basic Information Project ID EA Category Team Leader(s) P154840 B - Partial Assessment Denis Jean-Jacques Jordy, Michael Bonte-Grapentin Lending Instrument Fragile and/or Capacity Constraints [ ] Investment Project Financing Financial Intermediaries [ ] Series of Projects [ X ] Project Implementation Start Date Project Implementation End Date 30-Oct-2015 30-Jun-2020 Expected Effectiveness Date Expected Closing Date 30-Oct-2015 30-Nov-2020 Joint IFC No Practice Senior Global Practice Country Director Regional Vice President Manager/Manager Director Abhas Kumar Jha Ede Jorge Ijjasz-Vasquez Franz R. Drees-Gross Axel van Trotsenburg Borrower: Kingdom of Tonga Responsible Agency: Ministry of Finance and National Planning Contact: Aid and Project Management Title: MoF Division Telephone No.: (676) 24-463 Email: nlatu@finance.gov.to Responsible Agency: Ministry of Environment, Energy, Climate Change, Disaster Mgmt, Meteorology, Information and Comms Contact: Siaosi Sovaleni Title: Honorable Telephone No.: 67623100 Email: siaosi.sovaleni@gmail.com xv Project Financing Data(in USD Million) [ ] Loan [X] IDA Grant [ ] Guarantee [X] Credit [ X ] Grant [ ] Other Total Project Cost: 16.58 Total Bank Financing: 10.50 Financing Gap: 0.00 Financing Source Amount BORROWER/RECIPIENT 0.18 International Development Association (IDA) 6.00 IDA Grant 4.50 Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and 1.50 Recovery Special Climate Change Fund 4.58 Total 16.76 Expected Disbursements (in USD Million) Fiscal 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 0000 0000 0000 0000 Year Annual 0.71 3.42 3.30 2.40 0.51 0.16 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Cumulati 0.71 4.13 7.43 9.83 10.34 10.50 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 ve Institutional Data Practice Area (Lead) Social, Urban, Rural and Resilience Global Practice Contributing Practice Areas Climate Change, Environment & Natural Resources Cross Cutting Topics [X] Climate Change [ ] Fragile, Conflict & Violence [ ] Gender [ ] Jobs [ ] Public Private Partnership Sectors / Climate Change Sector (Maximum 5 and total % must equal 100) Major Sector Sector % Adaptation Mitigation Co-benefits % Co-benefits % Public Administration, Law, and Public administration- 30 100 Justice Water, sanitation and xvi flood protection Water, sanitation and flood protection General water, sanitation 70 100 and flood protection sector Total 100 I certify that there is no Adaptation and Mitigation Climate Change Co-benefits information applicable to this project. Themes Theme (Maximum 5 and total % must equal 100) Major theme Theme % Environment and natural resources Climate change 40 management Social protection and risk management Natural disaster management 60 Total 100 Proposed Development Objective(s) The objective of the Project is to strengthen early warning, resilient investments and financial protection of Tonga. Components Component Name Cost (USD Millions) Component 1: Strengthening Early Warning and 11.47 Preparedness Component 2: Risk Reduction and Resilient Investments 1.73 Component 3: Disaster Risk Financing 2.50 Component 4: Project and Program Management 0.89 Systematic Operations Risk- Rating Tool (SORT) Risk Category Rating 1. Political and Governance Moderate 2. Macroeconomic Moderate 3. Sector Strategies and Policies Substantial 4. Technical Design of Project or Program Substantial 5. Institutional Capacity for Implementation and Sustainability Substantial 6. Fiduciary Substantial 7. Environment and Social Moderate 8. Stakeholders Moderate 9. Other (external shocks, such as disasters) Substantial xvii OVERALL Substantial Compliance Policy Does the project depart from the CAS in content or in other significant Yes [ ] No [ X ] respects? Does the project require any exceptions of Bank policies? Yes [X ] No [ ] Have these been approved by Bank management? Yes [X ] No [ ] Is approval for any policy waiver sought from the Board? Yes [ ] No [ X ] Does the project meet the Regional criteria for readiness for implementation? Yes [ X ] No [ ] Safeguard Policies Triggered by the Project Yes No Environmental Assessment OP/BP 4.01 X Natural Habitats OP/BP 4.04 X Forests OP/BP 4.36 X Pest Management OP 4.09 X Physical Cultural Resources OP/BP 4.11 X Indigenous Peoples OP/BP 4.10 X Involuntary Resettlement OP/BP 4.12 X Safety of Dams OP/BP 4.37 X Projects on International Waterways OP/BP 7.50 X Projects in Disputed Areas OP/BP 7.60 X Legal Covenants Name Recurrent Due Date Frequency Ensure that funds are allocated for X Yearly operation and maintenance of the MHEWS Description of Covenant Allocate adequate funds, on an annual basis, to cover the operation and maintenance costs of the multi- hazard early warning systems in amounts which the Association agrees are adequate for said purpose. Name Recurrent Due Date Frequency A Service Agreement is to be signed 29-Feb-2016 between SPC and Tonga Description of Covenant The Recipient shall enter into and thereafter maintain, throughout the Project implementation period, a service agreement (“Service Agreement”) with the Secretariat of the Pacific Community Name Recurrent Due Date Frequency xviii The Recipient shall prepare, and 29-Feb-2016 thereafter adopt a project operations manual Description of Covenant A Project Operational Manual is to be prepared and adopted no later than 4 months after effectiveness Conditions Source Of Fund Name Type IDA Contingency Emergency Response Component Disbursement Description of Condition No withdrawal should be made for the contingency response subcomponent 3.1.1. until the Recipient has declared that an Eligible Crisis or Emergency has occurred, and the Association has agreed in writing and complied with all requirements set forth in Section I.E of this Schedule 2 to the Financing Agreement. Team Composition Bank Staff Name Role Title Specialization Unit Denis Jean-Jacques Team Leader Senior GENDR Jordy (ADM Environmental Responsible) Specialist Michael Bonte- Team Leader Senior Disaster GSURR Grapentin Risk Management Specialist Cristiano Costa e Silva Procurement Senior Procurement GGODR Nunes Specialist Specialist David Bruce Whitehead Financial Financial GGODR Management Management Specialist Specialist Habiba Gitay Team Member Senior GCCPT Environmental Specialist Marjorie Mpundu Counsel Senior Counsel LEGES Nathan Hale Team Member Program Assistant EACNF Nicholas John Valentine Team Member Consultant GSURR Ross James Butler Safeguards E T Consultant GSURR Specialist Samantha Jane Cook Team Member E T Consultant GFMDR Simone Lillian Esler Team Member E T Consultant GSURR Tevi Maltali Obed Team Member Disaster Risk GSURR Management Specialist xix Zhuo Yu Team Member Finance Officer WFALN Extended Team Name Title Office Phone Location David Rogers Hydrometeorology Geneva Expert, Warning Systems Specialist Philippe De Naurois Consultant, Implementation arrangements Locations Country First Location Planned Actual Comments Administrative Division Tonga Tongatapu Tongatapu X Consultants (Will be disclosed in the Monthly Operational Summary) Consultants Required ? Consultants will be required xx PAD DATA SHEET Marshall Islands Pacific Resilience Program (P155257) PROJECT APPRAISAL DOCUMENT EAST ASIA AND PACIFIC 0000009081 Report No.: PAD1437 Basic Information Project ID EA Category Team Leader(s) P155257 B - Partial Assessment Denis Jean-Jacques Jordy, Michael Bonte-Grapentin Lending Instrument Fragile and/or Capacity Constraints [ ] Investment Project Financing Financial Intermediaries [ ] Series of Projects [ X ] Project Implementation Start Date Project Implementation End Date 30-Oct-2015 30-Jun-2020 Expected Effectiveness Date Expected Closing Date 30-Oct-2015 30-Nov-2020 Joint IFC No Practice Senior Global Practice Country Director Regional Vice President Manager/Manager Director Abhas Kumar Jha Ede Jorge Ijjasz-Vasquez Franz R. Drees-Gross Axel van Trotsenburg Borrower: Republic of the Marshall Islands Responsible Agency: Ministry of Finance Contact: Ms. Maybelline Andon Bing Title: Secretary Telephone No.: (692) 625 8311 Email: mayabing@hotmail.com Project Financing Data(in USD Million) [ ] Loan [X] IDA Grant [ ] Guarantee [ ] Credit [ ] Grant [ ] Other Total Project Cost: 1.50 Total Bank Financing: 1.50 Financing Gap: 0.00 xxi Financing Source Amount BORROWER/RECIPIENT 0.15 IDA Grant 1.50 Total 1.65 Expected Disbursements (in USD Million) Fiscal 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 0000 0000 0000 0000 Year Annual 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Cumulati 0.50 1.00 1.50 1.50 1.50 1.50 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 ve Institutional Data Practice Area (Lead) Social, Urban, Rural and Resilience Global Practice Contributing Practice Areas Climate Change, Environment & Natural Resources Cross Cutting Topics [ ] Climate Change [ ] Fragile, Conflict & Violence [ ] Gender [ ] Jobs [ ] Public Private Partnership Sectors / Climate Change Sector (Maximum 5 and total % must equal 100) Major Sector Sector % Adaptation Mitigation Co-benefits % Co-benefits % Water, sanitation and flood protection General water, sanitation 70 100 and flood protection sector Public Administration, Law, and Public administration- 30 100 Justice Water, sanitation and flood protection Total 100 I certify that there is no Adaptation and Mitigation Climate Change Co-benefits information applicable to this project. Themes Theme (Maximum 5 and total % must equal 100) Major theme Theme % xxii Social protection and risk management Natural disaster management 60 Environment and natural resources Climate change 40 management Total 100 Proposed Development Objective(s) The objective of the Project is to strengthen the financial protection of the Republic of Marshall Islands. Components Component Name Cost (USD Millions) Component 1: Strengthening Early Warning and 0.00 Preparedness Component 2: Risk Reduction and Resilient Investments 0.00 Component 3: Disaster Risk Financing 1.50 Component 4: Project and Program Management 0.00 Systematic Operations Risk- Rating Tool (SORT) Risk Category Rating 1. Political and Governance Moderate 2. Macroeconomic Moderate 3. Sector Strategies and Policies Substantial 4. Technical Design of Project or Program Low 5. Institutional Capacity for Implementation and Sustainability Substantial 6. Fiduciary Substantial 7. Environment and Social Low 8. Stakeholders Moderate 9. Other (external shocks, such as disasters) Substantial OVERALL Substantial Compliance Policy Does the project depart from the CAS in content or in other significant Yes [ ] No [ X ] respects? Does the project require any exceptions of Bank policies? Yes [ X ] No [ ] Have these been approved by Bank management? Yes [ X ] No [ ] Is approval for any policy waiver sought from the Board? Yes [ ] No [ X ] Does the project meet the Regional criteria for readiness for implementation? Yes [ X ] No [ ] xxiii Safeguard Policies Triggered by the Project Yes No Environmental Assessment OP/BP 4.01 X Natural Habitats OP/BP 4.04 X Forests OP/BP 4.36 X Pest Management OP 4.09 X Physical Cultural Resources OP/BP 4.11 X Indigenous Peoples OP/BP 4.10 X Involuntary Resettlement OP/BP 4.12 X Safety of Dams OP/BP 4.37 X Projects on International Waterways OP/BP 7.50 X Projects in Disputed Areas OP/BP 7.60 X Legal Covenants Name Recurrent Due Date Frequency Description of Covenant Conditions Source Of Fund Name Type Description of Condition Team Composition Bank Staff Name Role Title Specialization Unit Denis Jean-Jacques Team Leader Senior GENDR Jordy (ADM Environmental Responsible) Specialist Michael Bonte- Team Leader Senior Disaster GSURR Grapentin Risk Management Specialist Cristiano Costa e Silva Procurement Senior Procurement GGODR Nunes Specialist Specialist David Bruce Whitehead Financial Financial GGODR Management Management Specialist Specialist Habiba Gitay Team Member Senior GCCPT xxiv Environmental Specialist Marjorie Mpundu Counsel Senior Counsel LEGES Nathan Hale Team Member Program Assistant EACNF Nicholas John Valentine Safeguards Consultant GSURR Specialist Ross James Butler Safeguards E T Consultant GSURR Specialist Samantha Jane Cook Team Member E T Consultant GFMDR Simone Lillian Esler Team Member E T Consultant GSURR Tevi Maltali Obed Team Member Disaster Risk GSURR Management Specialist Zhuo Yu Team Member Finance Officer WFALN Extended Team Name Title Office Phone Location David Rogers Hydrometeorology Geneva Expert, Warning Systems Specialist Philippe De Naurois Consultant, Implementation arrangements Locations Country First Location Planned Actual Comments Administrative Division Marshall Majuro Atoll Majuro Atoll X Islands Consultants (Will be disclosed in the Monthly Operational Summary) Consultants Required ? Consultants will be required xxv PAD DATA SHEET Vanuatu Pacific Resilience Program (P155256) PROJECT APPRAISAL DOCUMENT EAST ASIA AND PACIFIC 0000009081 Report No.: PAD1442 Basic Information Project ID EA Category Team Leader(s) P155256 B - Partial Assessment Denis Jean-Jacques Jordy, Michael Bonte-Grapentin Lending Instrument Fragile and/or Capacity Constraints [ ] Investment Project Financing Financial Intermediaries [ ] Series of Projects [ X ] Project Implementation Start Date Project Implementation End Date 30-Oct-2015 30-Jun-2020 Expected Effectiveness Date Expected Closing Date 30-Oct-2015 30-Nov-2020 Joint IFC No Practice Senior Global Practice Country Director Regional Vice President Manager/Manager Director Abhas Kumar Jha Ede Jorge Ijjasz-Vasquez Franz R. Drees-Gross Axel van Trotsenburg Borrower: Government of the Republic of Vanuatu Responsible Agency: Ministry of Finance and Economic Management Contact: Maki Stanley SIMELUM Title: Minister Telephone No.: 678 23032 Email: msimelum@vanuatu.gov.vu Project Financing Data(in USD Million) [ ] Loan [ ] IDA Grant [ ] Guarantee [X] Credit [ ] Grant [ ] Other Total Project Cost: 1.50 Total Bank Financing: 1.50 Financing Gap: 0.00 xxvi Financing Source Amount BORROWER/RECIPIENT 0.15 International Development Association (IDA) 1.50 Total 1.65 Expected Disbursements (in USD Million) Fiscal 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 0000 0000 0000 0000 Year Annual 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Cumulati 0.50 1.00 1.50 1.50 1.50 1.50 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 ve Institutional Data Practice Area (Lead) Social, Urban, Rural and Resilience Global Practice Contributing Practice Areas Climate Change, Environment & Natural Resources Cross Cutting Topics [X] Climate Change [ ] Fragile, Conflict & Violence [ ] Gender [ ] Jobs [ ] Public Private Partnership Sectors / Climate Change Sector (Maximum 5 and total % must equal 100) Major Sector Sector % Adaptation Mitigation Co-benefits % Co-benefits % Water, sanitation and flood protection General water, sanitation 70 100 and flood protection sector Public Administration, Law, and Public administration- 30 100 Justice Water, sanitation and flood protection Total 100 I certify that there is no Adaptation and Mitigation Climate Change Co-benefits information applicable to this project. Themes Theme (Maximum 5 and total % must equal 100) Major theme Theme % xxvii Social protection and risk management Natural disaster management 60 Environment and natural resources Climate change 40 management Total 100 Proposed Development Objective(s) The objective of the Project is to strengthen the financial protection of Vanuatu. Components Component Name Cost (USD Millions) Component 1: Strengthening Early Warning and 0.00 Preparedness Component 2: Risk Reduction and Resilient Investments 0.00 Component 3: Disaster Risk Financing 1.50 Component 4: Project and Program Management 0.00 Systematic Operations Risk- Rating Tool (SORT) Risk Category Rating 1. Political and Governance Moderate 2. Macroeconomic Moderate 3. Sector Strategies and Policies Substantial 4. Technical Design of Project or Program Low 5. Institutional Capacity for Implementation and Sustainability Substantial 6. Fiduciary Substantial 7. Environment and Social Low 8. Stakeholders Moderate 9. Other (external shocks, such as disasters) Substantial OVERALL Substantial Compliance Policy Does the project depart from the CAS in content or in other significant Yes [ ] No [ X ] respects? Does the project require any waivers of Bank policies? Yes [ ] No [ X ] Have these been approved by Bank management? Yes [ ] No [ ] Is approval for any policy waiver sought from the Board? Yes [ ] No [ X ] Does the project meet the Regional criteria for readiness for implementation? Yes [ X ] No [ ] xxviii Safeguard Policies Triggered by the Project Yes No Environmental Assessment OP/BP 4.01 X Natural Habitats OP/BP 4.04 X Forests OP/BP 4.36 X Pest Management OP 4.09 X Physical Cultural Resources OP/BP 4.11 X Indigenous Peoples OP/BP 4.10 X Involuntary Resettlement OP/BP 4.12 X Safety of Dams OP/BP 4.37 X Projects on International Waterways OP/BP 7.50 X Projects in Disputed Areas OP/BP 7.60 X Legal Covenants Name Recurrent Due Date Frequency Description of Covenant Conditions Source Of Fund Name Type Description of Condition Team Composition Bank Staff Name Role Title Specialization Unit Denis Jean-Jacques Team Leader Senior GENDR Jordy (ADM Environmental Responsible) Specialist Michael Bonte- Team Leader Senior Disaster GSURR Grapentin Risk Management Specialist Cristiano Costa e Silva Procurement Senior Procurement GGODR Nunes Specialist Specialist David Bruce Whitehead Financial Financial GGODR Management Management Specialist Specialist Habiba Gitay Team Member Senior GCCPT xxix Environmental Specialist Marjorie Mpundu Counsel Senior Counsel LEGES Nathan Hale Team Member Program Assistant EACNF Nicholas John Valentine Safeguards Consultant GSURR Specialist Ross James Butler Safeguards E T Consultant GSURR Specialist Samantha Jane Cook Team Member E T Consultant GFMDR Simone Lillian Esler Team Member E T Consultant GSURR Tevi Maltali Obed Team Member Disaster Risk GSURR Management Specialist Zhuo Yu Team Member Finance Officer WFALN Extended Team Name Title Office Phone Location David Rogers Hydrometeorology Geneva Expert, Warning Systems Specialist Philippe De Naurois Consultant, Implementation arrangements Locations Country First Location Planned Actual Comments Administrative Division Vanuatu Shefa Shefa Province X Consultants (Will be disclosed in the Monthly Operational Summary) Consultants Required ? Consultants will be required xxx PAD DATA SHEET Pacific Islands – Secretariat of the Pacific Community Pacific Resilience Program (P147839) PROJECT APPRAISAL DOCUMENT EAST ASIA AND PACIFIC 0000009081 Report No.: PAD1095 Basic Information Project ID EA Category Team Leader(s) P147839 B - Partial Assessment Denis Jean-Jacques Jordy, Michael Bonte-Grapentin Lending Instrument Fragile and/or Capacity Constraints [ ] Investment Project Financing Financial Intermediaries [ ] Series of Projects [ X ] Project Implementation Start Date Project Implementation End Date 30-Oct-2015 30-Jun-2020 Expected Effectiveness Date Expected Closing Date 30-Oct-2015 30-Nov-2020 Joint IFC No Practice Senior Global Practice Country Director Regional Vice President Manager/Manager Director Abhas Kumar Jha Ede Jorge Ijjasz-Vasquez Franz R. Drees-Gross Axel van Trotsenburg Borrower: SECRETARIAT OF THE PACIFIC COMMUNITY Responsible Agency: Secretariat of the Pacific Community Contact: Michael Pettersen Title: Director of Geoscience Division Telephone No.: 687262000 Email: michaelp@spc.int Project Financing Data(in USD Million) [ ] Loan [X] IDA Grant [ ] Guarantee [ ] Credit [ X ] Grant [ ] Other Total Project Cost: 9.47 Total Bank Financing: 3.68 Financing Gap: 0.00 xxxi Financing Source Amount BORROWER/RECIPIENT 0.00 IDA Grant 3.68 Strategic Climate Fund Grant 5.79 Total 9.47 Expected Disbursements (in USD Million) Fiscal 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 0000 0000 0000 0000 Year Annual 0.32 1.18 1.62 0.27 0.18 0.11 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Cumulati 0.32 1.50 3.12 3.39 3.57 3.68 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 ve Institutional Data Practice Area (Lead) Social, Urban, Rural and Resilience Global Practice Contributing Practice Areas Cross Cutting Topics [X] Climate Change [ ] Fragile, Conflict & Violence [ ] Gender [ ] Jobs [ ] Public Private Partnership Sectors / Climate Change Sector (Maximum 5 and total % must equal 100) Major Sector Sector % Adaptation Mitigation Co-benefits % Co-benefits % Water, sanitation and flood protection Flood protection 60 100 Public Administration, Law, and Public administration- 40 100 Justice Financial Sector Total 100 I certify that there is no Adaptation and Mitigation Climate Change Co-benefits information applicable to this project. Themes Theme (Maximum 5 and total % must equal 100) Major theme Theme % Social protection and risk management Natural disaster management 60 xxxii Environment and natural resources Climate change 40 management Total 100 Proposed Development Objective(s) The objective of the Program is to strengthen early warning, resilient investments and financial protection of participating countries. Components Component Name Cost (USD Millions) Component 1: Strengthening Early Warning and Preparedness 2.28 Component 2: Mainstreaming Risk Reduction and Resilient 5.71 Investments Component 3: Disaster Risk Financing 0.00 Component 4: Project and Program Management 1.48 Systematic Operations Risk- Rating Tool (SORT) Risk Category Rating 1. Political and Governance Moderate 2. Macroeconomic Moderate 3. Sector Strategies and Policies Substantial 4. Technical Design of Project or Program Substantial 5. Institutional Capacity for Implementation and Sustainability Substantial 6. Fiduciary Substantial 7. Environment and Social Moderate 8. Stakeholders Moderate 9. Other (external shocks, such as disasters) Substantial OVERALL Substantial Compliance Policy Does the project depart from the CAS in content or in other significant Yes [ ] No [ X ] respects? Does the project require any waivers of Bank policies? Yes [ ] No [ X ] Have these been approved by Bank management? Yes [ ] No [ ] Is approval for any policy waiver sought from the Board? Yes [ ] No [ X ] Does the project meet the Regional criteria for readiness for implementation? Yes [ X ] No [ ] xxxiii Safeguard Policies Triggered by the Project Yes No Environmental Assessment OP/BP 4.01 X Natural Habitats OP/BP 4.04 X Forests OP/BP 4.36 X Pest Management OP 4.09 X Physical Cultural Resources OP/BP 4.11 X Indigenous Peoples OP/BP 4.10 X Involuntary Resettlement OP/BP 4.12 X Safety of Dams OP/BP 4.37 X Projects on International Waterways OP/BP 7.50 X Projects in Disputed Areas OP/BP 7.60 X Legal Covenants Name Recurrent Due Date Frequency A Letter of Understanding is to be signed 29-Feb-2016 between PIFS and SPC Description of Covenant A Letter of Understanding is to be signed between PIFS and SPC no later than four months after effectiveness Name Recurrent Due Date Frequency The Recipient shall prepare, and 29-Feb-2016 thereafter adopt a project operations manual Description of Covenant A Project Operational Manual is to be prepared and adopted not later than 4 months after effectiveness Name Recurrent Due Date Frequency A Service Agreement is to be signed 29-Feb-2016 between SPC and Tonga Description of Covenant The Recipient shall enter into and thereafter maintain, throughout the Project implementation period, a service agreement (“Service Agreement”) with the Kingdom of Tonga Name Recurrent Due Date Frequency A Service Agreement is to be signed 29-Feb-2016 between SPC and Samoa Description of Covenant The Recipient shall enter into and thereafter maintain, throughout the Project implementation period, a service agreement (“Service Agreement”) with the Independent State of Samoa xxxiv Conditions Source Of Fund Name Type Description of Condition Team Composition Bank Staff Name Role Title Specialization Unit Denis Jean-Jacques Team Leader Senior GENDR Jordy (ADM Environmental Responsible) Specialist Michael Bonte- Team Leader Senior Disaster GSURR Grapentin Risk Management Specialist Cristiano Costa e Silva Procurement Senior Procurement GGODR Nunes Specialist Specialist David Bruce Whitehead Financial Financial GGODR Management Management Specialist Specialist Habiba Gitay Team Member Senior GCCPT Environmental Specialist Marjorie Mpundu Counsel Senior Counsel LEGES Nathan Hale Team Member Program Assistant EACNF Nicholas John Valentine Safeguards Consultant GSURR Specialist Ross James Butler Safeguards E T Consultant GSURR Specialist Samantha Jane Cook Team Member E T Consultant GFMDR Simone Lillian Esler Team Member E T Consultant GSURR Tevi Maltali Obed Team Member Disaster Risk GSURR Management Specialist Zhuo Yu Team Member Finance Officer WFALN Extended Team Name Title Office Phone Location David Rogers Hydrometeorology Geneva Expert, Warning Systems Specialist xxxv Philippe De Naurois Consultant, Implementation arrangements Locations Country First Location Planned Actual Comments Administrative Division Fiji Central Suva X Consultants (Will be disclosed in the Monthly Operational Summary) Consultants Required ? Consultants will be required xxxvi PAD DATA SHEET Pacific Islands – Pacific Islands Forum Secretariat Pacific Resilience Program (P155542) PROJECT APPRAISAL DOCUMENT EAST ASIA AND PACIFIC 0000009081 Report No.: PAD1449 Basic Information Project ID EA Category Team Leader(s) P155542 B - Partial Assessment Denis Jean-Jacques Jordy, Michael Bonte-Grapentin Lending Instrument Fragile and/or Capacity Constraints [ ] Investment Project Financing Financial Intermediaries [ ] Series of Projects [ X ] Project Implementation Start Date Project Implementation End Date 30-Oct-2015 30-Jun-2020 Expected Effectiveness Date Expected Closing Date 30-Oct-2015 30-Nov-2020 Joint IFC No Practice Senior Global Practice Country Director Regional Vice President Manager/Manager Director Abhas Kumar Jha Ede Jorge Ijjasz-Vasquez Franz R. Drees-Gross Axel van Trotsenburg Borrower: Pacific Islands Forum Secretariat Responsible Agency: Pacific Islands Forum Secretariat Contact: Dame Meg Taylor Title: Secretary General Telephone No.: 679 3312600 Email: info@forumsec.org Project Financing Data(in USD Million) [ ] Loan [X] IDA Grant [ ] Guarantee [ ] Credit [ X ] Grant [ ] Other Total Project Cost: 2.22 Total Bank Financing: 1.32 Financing Gap: 0.00 xxxvii Financing Source Amount BORROWER/RECIPIENT 0.00 IDA Grant 1.32 Special Climate Change Fund 0.90 Total 2.22 Expected Disbursements (in USD Million) Fiscal 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 0000 0000 0000 0000 Year Annual 0.15 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.27 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Cumulati 0.15 0.45 0.75 1.05 1.32 1.32 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 ve Institutional Data Practice Area (Lead) Social, Urban, Rural and Resilience Global Practice Contributing Practice Areas Cross Cutting Topics [X] Climate Change [ ] Fragile, Conflict & Violence [ ] Gender [ ] Jobs [ ] Public Private Partnership Sectors / Climate Change Sector (Maximum 5 and total % must equal 100) Major Sector Sector % Adaptation Mitigation Co-benefits % Co-benefits % Water, sanitation and flood protection Flood protection 60 100 Public Administration, Law, and Public administration- 40 100 Justice Financial Sector Total 100 I certify that there is no Adaptation and Mitigation Climate Change Co-benefits information applicable to this project. Themes Theme (Maximum 5 and total % must equal 100) Major theme Theme % Social protection and risk management Natural disaster management 60 xxxviii Environment and natural resources Climate change 40 management Total 100 Proposed Development Objective(s) The objective of the Program is to strengthen early warning, resilient investments and financial protection of participating countries. Components Component Name Cost (USD Millions) Component 1: Strengthening Early Warning and Preparedness 0.00 Component 2: Mainstreaming Risk Reduction and Resilient 0.00 Investments Component 3: Disaster Risk Financing 0.75 Component 4: Project and Program Management 1.47 Systematic Operations Risk- Rating Tool (SORT) Risk Category Rating 1. Political and Governance Moderate 2. Macroeconomic Moderate 3. Sector Strategies and Policies Substantial 4. Technical Design of Project or Program Substantial 5. Institutional Capacity for Implementation and Sustainability Substantial 6. Fiduciary Substantial 7. Environment and Social Low 8. Stakeholders Moderate 9. Other (external shocks, such as disasters) Substantial OVERALL Substantial Compliance Policy Does the project depart from the CAS in content or in other significant Yes [ ] No [ ] respects? Does the project require any waivers of Bank policies? Yes [ ] No [ X ] Have these been approved by Bank management? Yes [ ] No [ ] Is approval for any policy waiver sought from the Board? Yes [ ] No [ X ] Does the project meet the Regional criteria for readiness for implementation? Yes [ X ] No [ ] xxxix Safeguard Policies Triggered by the Project Yes No Environmental Assessment OP/BP 4.01 X Natural Habitats OP/BP 4.04 X Forests OP/BP 4.36 X Pest Management OP 4.09 X Physical Cultural Resources OP/BP 4.11 X Indigenous Peoples OP/BP 4.10 X Involuntary Resettlement OP/BP 4.12 X Safety of Dams OP/BP 4.37 X Projects on International Waterways OP/BP 7.50 X Projects in Disputed Areas OP/BP 7.60 X Legal Covenants Name Recurrent Due Date Frequency A Letter of Understanding is to be signed 29-Feb-2016 between PIFS and SPC Description of Covenant A Letter of Understanding is to be signed between PIFS and SPC no later than 4 months after effectiveness Name Recurrent Due Date Frequency The Recipient shall prepare, and 29-Feb-2016 thereafter adopt a project operations manual Description of Covenant A Project Operational Manual is to be prepared and adopted not later than 4 months after effectiveness Conditions Source Of Fund Name Type Description of Condition Team Composition Bank Staff Name Role Title Specialization Unit Denis Jean-Jacques Team Leader Senior GENDR Jordy (ADM Environmental Responsible) Specialist Michael Bonte- Team Leader Senior Disaster GSURR xl Grapentin Risk Management Specialist Cristiano Costa e Silva Procurement Senior Procurement GGODR Nunes Specialist Specialist David Bruce Whitehead Financial Financial GGODR Management Management Specialist Specialist Habiba Gitay Team Member Senior GCCPT Environmental Specialist Marjorie Mpundu Team Member Senior Counsel LEGES Nathan Hale Team Member Program Assistant EACNF Nicholas John Valentine Safeguards Consultant GSURR Specialist Ross James Butler Safeguards E T Consultant GSURR Specialist Samantha Jane Cook Team Member E T Consultant GFMDR Simone Lillian Esler Team Member E T Consultant GSURR Tevi Maltali Obed Team Member Disaster Risk GSURR Management Specialist Zhuo Yu Team Member Finance Officer WFALN Extended Team Name Title Office Phone Location David Rogers Hydrometeorology Geneva Expert, Warning Systems Specialist Philippe De Naurois Consultant, Implementation arrangements Locations Country First Location Planned Actual Comments Administrative Division Fiji Central Central Division X Consultants (Will be disclosed in the Monthly Operational Summary) Consultants Required ? Consultants will be required xli I. STRATEGIC CONTEXT A. Regional Context 1. The Pacific Island Countries (PICs) lie in the midst of the world’s largest ocean and include some of the world’s smallest nations. There are three sub-regions, Melanesia, Micronesia and Polynesia. Melanesia is the most populous and consists mainly of high islands which generally have fertile soils. Micronesia and Polynesia, which consist mainly of reefs or atolls, are relatively small with predominantly infertile soils (although this does vary – for example, Tonga is known to be quite fertile) and some high islands. Many PICs are dispersed over a large area, with small and remote populations. Economic growth in PICs is low; the small and scattered island “sea-locked” countries have small domestic markets and are characterized by low economic density as a result of their extreme remoteness, as well as high transportation and transaction costs of linking to international markets. Although absolute poverty in the region is limited, real per capita income has remained virtually unchanged since the mid-1990s and economic progress tends to be volatile and vulnerable to external shocks. Most economies are largely reliant on remittances, fishing licenses, agriculture, some limited natural resources, tourism and foreign aid flows. 2. PICs are also among the most physically vulnerable nations in the world. They are highly exposed to adverse effects from climate change and natural hazards (including floods, droughts, tropical cyclones, storm surges, earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, and tsunamis), which can result in disasters that affect their entire economies, human and physical capital, and impact their long- term development agendas. Since 1950, natural disasters have affected approximately 9.2 million1 people in the Pacific region, causing 9,811 reported deaths. This has cost the PICs around US$3.2 billion (in nominal terms) in associated damage costs (EM-DAT, 2010)2. 3. Disasters, climate and weather extremes and projected changes in climate, are increasingly recognized as a core development challenge, as they adversely impact social and economic development. Changes in increasing mean ocean and land temperatures, changes in the seasonality and duration of rainfall and increasing sea level (IPCC, 2014)3 are affecting agriculture, food security, fisheries, water resources and thus lives, livelihoods and economies. Furthermore, poor populations tend to live on low value land, in higher-risk areas such as close to flood prone waterways and the coastline, making them vulnerable and more likely to be adversely affected by climate-related and natural events. More importantly, the vulnerability of the poor to natural disasters and the effects of climate change are expected to increase due to pressures including increased population, and constrained land availability, which will force larger numbers of the poor to live in more hazard prone areas. Hence, there is widespread 1 SPC Pocket Handbook 2010. 2 Source: Pacific Catastrophe Risk Assessment and Financing Initiative (PCRAFI). Countries covered by PCRAFI are Cook Islands, Federated States of Micronesia, Fiji, Kiribati, Marshall Islands, Nauru, Niue, Palau, Papua New Guinea, Samoa, Solomon Islands, Tonga, Tuvalu, and Vanuatu. Timor-Leste is also included. 3 IPCC, 2014: Climate Change 2014: Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Core Writing Team, R.K. Pachauri and L.A. Meyer (eds.)]. IPCC, Geneva, Switzerland. 1 acceptance of the need to strengthen disaster early warning and preparedness, and to mainstream disaster risk and climate change into development planning and financing. B. Sectoral and Institutional Context 4. The Pacific Resilience Program (PREP) is a ‘Series of Projects’ articulated in two Phases at this stage, with the potential of a third and/or fourth phase in the future. The regional approach of the Program will help PICs to: (i) strengthen early warning and preparedness; (ii) create a framework for stronger and prioritized investments in resilience and retrofitting of key-public assets to meet international recognized resilience standards; and (iii) improve the post-disaster response capacity of the countries through strengthened financial resilience to disaster events. These objectives are critical, given the increasing frequency and severity of disasters in the region. Importantly, the regional approach will allow for economies of scale, standardized approaches, improved coordination of climate resilience and disaster risk mitigation (DRM) efforts, and spreading risk across the region. 5. The initial participants for Phase I of the PREP are Samoa, Tonga, the Republic of Marshall Islands (RMI), Vanuatu, the Pacific Islands Forum Secretariat (PIFS) and the Secretariat of the Pacific Community (SPC). Potential participants in Phase II include the Federated States of Micronesia (FSM), Fiji, and the Solomon Islands. The participating Phase I countries and potential Phase II countries all have a high risk profile and are subject to frequent rapid onset disasters, and all (apart from FSM & Fiji) have been part of the Pacific Catastrophe Risk Assessment and Financing Initiative (PCRAFI) scheme, which the PREP will build on. 6. While all of these countries have expressed an interest in participating in the PREP, Tonga and Samoa will participate in Phase I for all components of the Program because they have demonstrated strong commitment to: (i) continue to participate in the PCRAFI catastrophe risk insurance scheme beyond 2015; (ii) develop (or have already developed) a prioritized climate and disaster resilient investment plan as set out under Sub-component 2.1.2 (Entry level investments to strengthen climate and disaster resilience); and (iii) mobilize International Development Association (IDA) funds for disaster risk financing, insurance, and resilient investment. RMI and Vanuatu will join Phase I of the Program for Sub-component 3.1.2 (Premiums Financing) only, in order to finance the yearly premium for the catastrophe risk insurance. This would: (i) ensure there is no gap in catastrophe risk insurance coverage for RMI and Vanuatu; (ii) allow at least four countries to join the regional insurance pool; (iii) result in significant cost savings in insurance premium; and (iv) provide scope for their involvement in other components during Phase II. 7. Given the capacity constraints in the participating Phase I countries and the need to improve tools and data that can be used by all PICs in coming years, PREP will also provide support to regional organizations that have a critical role in technical, policy and information areas, namely the Pacific Islands Forum Secretariat (PIFS) and the Secretariat of the Pacific Community (SPC). The PREP will also build on the Pilot Program for Climate Resilience (PPCR) supported regional activities that are administered by the Asian Development Bank (ADB) and implemented by the Secretariat of Pacific Regional Environmental Program (SPREP) to avoid duplication of efforts, establish synergies and build on the country level activities supported by the PPCR in Samoa and Tonga. 2 8. The participating countries are exposed to a range of hydro-meteorological and geo- hazards, including tropical cyclones and associated storm surges and flooding, earthquakes and tsunamis, the impacts of which are summarized in Table 1 below. Most recently, on the evening of 13 March 2015, severe Tropical Cyclone (TC) Pam struck 22 islands of Vanuatu as an extremely destructive category 5 cyclone. A state of emergency was officially declared on March 15 for Shefa Province (which includes the capital of Port Vila). In January 2014, TC Ian struck Tonga, resulting in US$50 million in damages, and in 2012, TC Evan struck Samoa, resulting in US$210 million in damages. In all three cases, the World Bank has been able to provide crisis funding through the Crisis Response Window. Climate change is exacerbating the vulnerabilities of PICs through increased frequency and possibly the increased intensity of climate-related events. Apart from changing extreme weather events, climate change is adding pressure on fragile island systems. Changes in increasing mean ocean and land temperatures, changes in the seasonality and duration of rainfall and increasing sea level (IPCC 2014)4 are affecting agriculture, fisheries, water resources and thus lives, livelihoods and economies. Table 1: Risk Profile for Tropical Cyclone (TC), Earthquake and Tsunami for Phase I countries Samoa Tonga RMI Vanuatu Average annual loss 1.7% 4.3% 2.0% 6.6% (% GDP)5 Last disaster Name TC Evan TC Ian Typhoon Gay TC Pam and impact Date Dec 2012 Jan 2014 Nov 1992 Mar 2015 Cost US$210.4 m US$50 m Currently % GDP 30% 11% unknown Impact of 1/50 Cost US$110 m US$140 m US$34 m US$285 m year return % GDP 19.4% 39.2% 21.9% 39.1% period 3 Casualties 254 299 38 577 (injuries and fatalities) Impact of Cost US$153 m US$225 m US$67 m US$370 m 1/100 year % GDP 27.0% 63.0% 43.3% 43.6% return period3 Casualties 374 600 76 901 (injuries and fatalities) 9. Existing technical knowledge and financial capacity in participating countries is insufficient in many cases to fully address these vulnerabilities and reduce risks. Most of the countries have low implementation and absorptive capacities, which is a common constraint for small island countries. In most countries, the effectiveness of early warning and response is also influenced by the expansive geographical spread of the country and the limitations and high costs of communication systems. 4 IPCC, 2014: Climate Change 2014: Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Core Writing Team, R.K. Pachauri and L.A. Meyer (eds.)]. IPCC, Geneva, Switzerland. 5 PCRAFI Country Risk Profiles, September 2011 3 10. Despite recent progress in terms of national level plans or policy to respond to disaster and climate risks, translating national climate and disaster resilient policies into sector policies and investments has been a significant challenge. In addition, local institutions, civil society groups, village communities, community volunteers and urban resident welfare associations are not adequately trained in DRM and climate resilience. 11. There has also been a fragmentation of donor support for climate and disaster resilience, with PICs being challenged with having to manage multiple projects, fragmenting their limited institutional capacity. The fragmentation is due in part to the multiplicity of adaptation and disaster risk management funds at the global level but also due to most donors, including the World Bank6, operating on a country-by-country and project-by-project basis in DRM and climate resilient development and not consolidating this effort. The problem of fragmentation and a country-by-country approach is only likely to increase as the PICs get more support 7 to address their increasing vulnerability to climate and disaster risks. The PREP will seek to consolidate the results of these on-going national and regional initiatives, and to this end, consultations have been undertaken with key development partners during the preparation of the Program (including the Australian Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade, New Zealand Aid, the European Union, and the Japan International Cooperation Agency). C. Higher Level Objectives to which the Program Contributes 12. The PREP aims to contribute to the resilient and sustainable economic and social development of the participating countries and of the region as a whole. As outlined below, the Program is aligned with the strategic documents and frameworks that identify needs and priorities to respond to the extreme vulnerability to the effects of climate change and natural hazards for the relevant Phase I country Governments, the World Bank and the region. 13. The PREP is in line with regional strategies, and will contribute to the achievement of the Hyogo Framework for Action. It addresses key priorities of the Pacific Regional Framework for Action on Disaster Risk Management, 2005-20158 and its proposed successor, the Strategy for Climate and Disaster Resilient Development in the Pacific9 (SRDP), as well as key priorities of the Pacific Islands Meteorological Strategy 2012–2021 on ‘Improved end-to-end Multi-Hazard Early Warning Systems’. Pacific leaders, recognizing the importance of early warning and 6 In recent years the World Bank has supported various projects which combine policy support, improved preparedness and response, and investments for risk reduction in various sectors (e.g., transport, agriculture, water and coastal management) and has gained important experience in tackling natural hazards and climate change in the Pacific region, particularly in Samoa, Vanuatu, Tonga, Kiribati and Solomon Islands. In Samoa, the World Bank, with support from the Pilot Program for Climate Resilience (PPCR) has helped set up the Climate Resilience Investment Coordination Unit (CRICU) under the Ministry of Finance to oversee various climate and disaster resilience efforts. At the regional level, PCRAFI has developed a region-wide disaster risk information system and has launched a risk insurance pilot to increase financial resilience against natural hazards and provide immediate liquidity when a major disaster hits a country. 7 Financing for climate and disaster resilience to Small Island States has increased in recent years and they currently receive an estimated US$684 million a year in climate and disaster resilience assistance (World Bank analysis). About 46 percent is provided through bilateral sources and about half through multilateral development banks. 8 Theme 4: ‘Planning for Effective Preparedness, Response and Recovery’ , and theme 5: ‘Effective, Integrated and People-Focused Early Warning Systems’. 9 Action 2.10.7: ‘Strengthened capacity to anticipate, resist, plan and prepare for, respond to and recover from the consequences of disasters and climate change’. 4 preparedness, developed a Regional Early Warning Strategy in 2007, to which the PREP will also contribute. 14. The PREP is aligned with the following government documents for the four participating Phase I countries: (i) Samoa: The Government of Samoa (GoS) National Action Plan for Disaster Management (2011-2016), the GoS Strategy for the Development of Samoa (2012–2016) and the Samoa Climate Resilience Investment Program (CRIP) developed as part of the support from PPCR; (ii) Tonga: The Government of Tonga (GoT) Joint National Action Plan on Climate Change and Disaster Risk Management (2010-2015) and the National Infrastructure Investment Plan (under the Pacific Region Infrastructure Facility). In addition, PREP complements and builds on the themes in Tonga’s Strategic Program on Climate Resilience (SPCR) for PPCR, including mainstreaming of climate resilience in key strategies, policies and infrastructure, as well as strengthening civil society and community engagement; (iii) RMI: The Government of RMI’s (GoRMI) National Action Plan for Disaster Risk Management (2008-2018) and the National Climate Change Policy Framework (2011); and (iv) Vanuatu: The Government of Vanuatu (GoV) Disaster Risk Reduction and Disaster Management National Action Plan (2006- 2016), and the Strategic Infrastructure Investment Plan (under the Pacific Region Infrastructure Facility). 15. The PREP is also consistent with the Samoa Country Partnership Strategy10 (CPS), the Tonga Country Assistance Strategy11 (CAS) and the RMI CPS. One of the primary themes running through the World Bank engagement with all four countries is building resilience against shocks. The key pillars of this engagement are identified as: (i) “building resilience to natural disasters and climate change” in the case of the Samoa CPS; (ii) “building resilience to natural disasters” in the case of the Tonga CAS; and (iii) “building resilience to economic shocks, natural disasters and climate change” in the case of the RMI CPS. PREP aligns with the Bank’s engagement with Samoa, Tonga, RMI and Vanuatu by supporting efforts to reduce the countries’ vulnerability to climate change and exogenous environmental shocks (such as natural disasters), by improving early warning systems and providing mechanisms for financing recovery activities in the wake of a disaster. 16. The PREP is also in line with recently finalized Bank planning and policy documents, including the World Bank Engagement Note for Disaster and Climate Resilient Development Programming in the Pacific Islands Region (August, 2014), and the Policy and Practice Note (PPN) “Acting Today for Tomorrow” (2012). The PREP will be a practical tool to implement the PPN, which has been developed in close collaboration with donors and regional organizations and has been very well received. PREP is also an integral part of the Small Island States Resilience Initiative (SISRI), which builds on the Bank’s engagement and provides coherence for climate and disaster resilient development in small island states in the Caribbean, in the Indian Ocean and in West Africa. PREP also contributes to the transformative goals of mainstreaming climate change adaptation and disaster risk reduction into national/sectoral/local development programs of PICs as articulated in the Pacific Regional Strategic Program for Climate Resilience (SPCR). 10 Tonga Country Partnership Strategy, FY2012-2016 11 Tonga Country Assistance Strategy, FY 2010-2014 5 17. The PREP is central to the fulfillment of the World Bank’s twin goals, and lies at the heart of poverty reduction and shared prosperity, given the extreme vulnerability of the participating countries to natural disasters, economic shocks, and climate change (refer to Annex 10 for more information on how the PREP addresses the twin goals). While disasters impact whole societies, when they strike, the poor and vulnerable (including women, children and the elderly) are hit the hardest. Natural disasters and climate shocks not only hit the poorest and most vulnerable harder, but they also induce and exacerbate poverty. Furthermore, the economic impact of disasters can be devastating for developing countries, with the impact of disasters on Gross Domestic Product (GDP) being 20 times higher in developing countries than in industrialized nations12. The PICs are some of the most economically affected by disasters in the world, with, for instance, average annualized losses estimated to amount to 6.6% of the GDP for Vanuatu and 4.4% of the GDP for Tonga13. Reducing the risk of natural disasters will be crucial for improving living conditions in participating countries, which is an important, non-monetary dimension of poverty reduction and shared prosperity. II. PROGRAM DEVELOPMENT OBJECTIVES (PDO) A. PDO 18. The objective of the Program is to strengthen early warning, resilient investments and financial protection14 of participating countries15. B. Program beneficiaries 19. The Program beneficiaries include communities in the participating PICs that are particularly vulnerable to climate and disaster risk, government agencies in charge of disaster and climate resilient planning and response, resilient investment and disaster risk financing, and regional organizations that support efforts in climate and disaster risk management and development. Direct Beneficiaries 20. Local communities, including women and children will benefit through increased awareness and clearer messages and warnings in regards to disaster events, which will enable people to make better informed decisions about what to do to protect to protect their lives, livelihoods and property from hazard impacts. The number of beneficiaries from local 12 UnNatural Disasters, a report funded by the World Bank and Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery (GFDRR). 13 Pacific Catastrophe Risk Assessment and Financing Initiative, World Bank, 2011 14 For the purpose of the PDO: (1) resilient investments include those in: (i) early warning and preparedness; (ii) risk identification and reduction; (iii) resilient reconstruction; (iv)enhancing or enabling policies and planning for short- and long-term risks; and (2) financial protection includes financial instruments that allow access to timely post disaster financing. 15 For country specific PDOs, refer to Annex 3 for Samoa, Annex 4 for Tonga, Annex 5 for RMI and Annex 6 for Vanuatu (Note: as the projects for RMI and Vanuatu include an abridged Project design encompassing only Sub- component 3.1.2, these countries have a simplified PDO). The PDO for regionally implemented activities (Annex 7) is the same as for the Program PDO. 6 communities will number 75,000 people for Samoa and 60,000 people for Tonga, of which 40% will be female. 21. The government agencies in Samoa and Tonga that are in charge of Multi-Hazard Early Warning and Preparedness will also benefit. The Program will be able to enhance the effectiveness of these beneficiary organizations, ensuring they are able to provide reliable, useful and timely information on weather, climate, hydrological and geophysical hazards and events. 22. The Finance Ministries of Samoa, Tonga, RMI and Vanuatu will also directly benefit from the financial instruments provided under Component 3 (Disaster Risk Financing). 23. Regional organizations (mainly the PIFS and SPC) will benefit directly from strengthened capacity in early warning, preparedness, risk assessment, climate finance and climate and disaster resilient planning. Indirect beneficiaries 24. The Ministries in planning and aid coordination, infrastructure, and local government, will all benefit indirectly from the PREP, as will the range of weather and water-dependent sectors including agriculture, tourism, aviation, water resources, health and energy. C. PDO-Level Results Indicators 25. The key results will be monitored through the following indicators: (i) Direct project beneficiaries16; (ii) Increased coverage of hazard forecast and warning messages to populations at risk; (iii) Percentage of short term priority projects of the resilient investment plan developed under the Program included in the Medium Term Expenditure Framework (MTEF)17; (iv) Participating PICs have received payment within a month of the occurrence of a covered (insured) event; and (v) Time taken to commit funds from the contingency emergency component requested by Government for an eligible emergency. III. PROGRAM DESCRIPTION A. Series of Projects 26. The PREP constitutes an interdependent and overlapping Series of Projects to multiple beneficiaries who are facing a common set of development issues and share common development goals. The Program will include a combination of activities and investments at the country level (Project) and activities at the regional level which benefit the region as a whole (Program). Each of the country Projects will be self-standing. 16 Contributes to PPCR Core Indicator #5 (“Number o f people supported by the PPCR to cope with the effects of climate change”) 17 Contributes to PPCR Core Indicator #3 (“Quality and extent to which climate responsive instruments/investment models are developed and tested) 7 27. The first phase (Phase I) of the Program will include a series of Projects for countries (i.e., Samoa, Tonga, RMI and Vanuatu), and regional organizations (SPC and PIFS). It is envisaged there will also be a second phase (Phase II) which will include additional investments for the Phase I countries (to be prepared during Phase I) and additional countries (potentially FSM, Fiji and the Solomon Islands). 28. A detailed generalized Program Description can be found in Annex 2. A description of the country Projects is included in Annex 3 for Samoa, Annex 4 for Tonga, Annex 5 for RMI18, Annex 6 for Vanuatu9 and Annex 7 for the Regional Activities. B. Program Components 29. The Program will comprise a combination of nationally implemented activities and regional implemented activities as described in the matrix below: National Implemented Activities Regional Implemented Activities Recipients  Phase I countries: Samoa and Tonga,  SPC for Component 1.2, 2.2 and 4.2 with RMI and Vanuatu for premium  PIFS for component 3.2 and 4.2 financing under sub-component 3.1.2. Component 1:  1.1 Investments in early warning and  1.2 Regional Technical Assistance Strengthening early preparedness (TA) to strengthen impact forecasting warning and and preparedness preparedness Component 2: Risk  2.1 Risk reduction and resilient  2.2. Regional platform to support risk Reduction and investment planning and preparation reduction and resilient investment Resilient Investments (including entry level investments) planning Component 3:  3.1. Disaster risk financing instruments  3.2 Development of Mutual Insurance Disaster Risk Fund Financing Component 4:  4.1 Project Management  4.2 Regional Program Management Project and Program and Coordination Management. 30. The Program will comprise the following four components: Component 1: Strengthening Early Warning and Preparedness (estimated cost including contingencies: US$23.0 million) 31. The objective of this component is to increase the resilience of the participating Phase I countries and the Pacific region as a whole to natural hazards such as cyclones, coastal/riverine flooding, volcanic eruptions, tsunamis and earthquakes by improving the quality of forecasting and warning services as well as disaster preparedness. Component 2: Risk Reduction and Resilient Investments (estimated cost including contingencies: US$8.6 million) 32. This Component will finance entry level resilient investments, such as the retrofitting of public buildings (e.g., schools, health centers) to meet internationally accepted building standards for resilience (including appropriate consideration of gender requirements). It will also 18 Includes an abridged Project design encompassing only Sub-component 3.1.2 8 support and enhance a multi-sectoral planning process for integrating climate and disaster risk and resilience into development. This will help reduce existing funding fragmentation, allocate incoming resources more efficiently to existing needs and support alignment with the development and budgetary processes of the countries. Component 3: Disaster Risk Financing (estimated cost including contingencies: US$8.8 million) 33. The objective of this component is to strengthen the financial resilience of the participating PICs to disaster events by enabling them to secure access to immediate liquidity post disaster for low, medium and high risk events. Accordingly, this component will support the development and implementation of an integrated disaster risk financing strategy that provides an optimal combination of risk retention (for high frequency, low severity events) and risk transfer (for low frequency, high severity events) for participating countries (see Figure 1, Annex 2). This will include both national instruments and regional instruments, and will build on the PCRAFI pilot insurance scheme, which is reaching the third and final year and has previously been funded by Japan with some funding also contributed by the beneficiary governments. Component 4: Project and Program Management (estimated cost including contingencies: US$4.7 million) 34. The objective of this component is to provide efficient and effective implementation support to the Projects in each country, including staff, operating costs, monitoring and evaluation, and the cost of audits. It will support integrated planning efforts, and strengthen fiduciary and safeguards capacity. It will also provide efficient regional coordination of the different country Projects and the implementation of activities that will be executed at the regional level, as well as high level coordination of climate and disaster resilient projects and initiatives in the Pacific. C. Program Financing 35. Lending Instrument: The proposed lending instrument is Investment Project Financing, supporting a Series of Projects. The PREP is a series of interdependent and overlapping Projects to multiple beneficiaries. Each of the country Projects are self-standing and will finance a different group of eligible beneficiaries, and each is expected to last approximately five years. Preparation for subsequent operations is envisaged to start during World Bank Financial Year 2016/17 for additional countries, under Phase II of the PREP. Taken together, Phase I and Phase II are expected to span at least eight to nine years. It is envisaged that other phases could potentially follow in the future (i.e., Phase III and Phase IV), which could overlap with Phase I and/or Phase II. Three to four Phases of the Program would be expected to span a timeframe of 10 to 15 years. It is envisaged that Phase I of the Program would provide a strong foundation to leverage additional donor financing for subsequent phases (i.e., through the preparation of resilient investment plans developed under Component 2). 36. In order to implement the shared objective and approach, each Project in the series will finance activities that will be implemented nationally in each participating country, as well as some activities that will be implemented at the regional level. Each Project will include investments for both ‘physical’ goods and works, as well as ‘soft’ activities such as technical assistance (TA), capacity building, consulting services and training. The majority of the physical 9 investments will be made at the national level, while ‘soft’ activities will be implemented at both the national and regional level. 37. Rationale for regional IDA: The Project meets the regional funding eligibility criteria as follows: (i) Phase I includes four countries and more countries are expected to participate in future phases; (ii) the Program will build a regional Early Warning System (EWS) under Component 1, with harmonized national and local components with data exchanges and analysis at all levels, including systems that draw on common operating and maintenance schemes; (iii) the Program is expected to generate significant cross-boundary benefits through common risk transfer mechanisms (such as catastrophic risk insurance), and possibly in Phase II the establishment of a regional pool of funds for disaster risk financing and response; (iv) based on the PCRAFI experience, there is clear evidence of regional commitment, with the PIFS, SPC and many PICs potentially interested in participating; and (v) the Program will also provide a platform for harmonization and building common approaches for DRM and climate resilient policies and institutional set up, sharing, demonstrating and improving capacity for disaster and climate risk information and decision support tools. 38. Program Cost and Financing: The total cost of the PREP Phase I is estimated to amount to US$45.69 million over 5 years. This includes: (i) aggregate IDA grant and credit financing of US$32.29 million (National IDA: US$ 10.50 million, will finance activities that benefit specific countries across components 1.1, 2.1, 3.1 and 4.1 for Tonga and Samoa, and Component 3.1 for RMI and Vanuatu. Regional IDA: US$21.79 million will finance activities that will have regional benefits across Components 1.1 for Samoa and Tonga, Components 1.2 and 2.2 for SPC, Component 3.2 for PIFS, and Component 4.2 for SPC and PIFS); (ii) US$ 5.48 million from Global Environment Facility (GEF)/Special Climate Change Fund (SCCF) will finance activities under component 1.1 and 2.1 for Tonga and 3.2 for PIFS; (iii) US$ 5.79 million from Pilot Program for Climate Resilience (PPCR) will finance activities under Component 2.2 and 4.2 for SPC; and (iv) US$ 1.50 million from the Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery (GFDRR/Japan), will finance activities under Component 1.1 for Tonga; and (v) Governments contribution of US$ 0.63 for the insurance premium financing. The overall financial envelope of the longer term Program beyond Phase I cannot be defined at this stage due to the number of unknown variables associated with future phases (i.e., the inclusion of additional, as yet to be determined countries). However, the financial envelope will be presented in the documents of subsequent Program phases once this information becomes available. Table 2: Program Cost, Phase I Component and/or Activity Program Regional Samoa Tonga RMI Vanuatu Cost Cost Project Project Project Project (US$M) (US$M) (US$M) (US$M) (US$M) (US$M) 1. Strengthening Early 22.998 2.287 9.250 11.461 Warning and Preparedness 1.1. Investments in early 20.711 9.250 11.461 warning and preparedness 1.2. Regional TA to strengthen 2.287 2.287 impact forecasting and preparedness 2. Risk Reduction and Resilient 8.587 5.712 1.150 1.725 Investments 2.1. Risk reduction and resilient 2.875 1.150 1.725 10 Component and/or Activity Program Regional Samoa Tonga RMI Vanuatu Cost Cost Project Project Project Project (US$M) (US$M) (US$M) (US$M) (US$M) (US$M) investment planning and preparation 2.2 Regional platform to support 5.714 5.712 risk reduction and resilient investment planning 3. Disaster Risk Financing 9.380 0.750 2.650 2.680 1.650 1.650 3.1 Disaster risk financing 8.630 - 2.650 2.680 1.650 1.650 instruments 3.2 Development of Mutual 0.750 0.750 Insurance Fund 4. Project and Program 4.731 2.945 0.893 0.893 Management 4.1. Project management 1.785 0.893 0.893 4.2. Regional Program 2.945 2.945 Management and Coordination TOTAL COSTS 45.696 11.694 13.943 16.759 1.650 1.650 Note: Figures may not add up due to rounding Table 3: Program Financing, Phase I Recipient National Regional Regional SCCF* PPCR GFDRR/ Govern. Total IDA IDA IDA (US$ M) (US$ M) Japan (US$ M) (US$ M) (US$ M) Grant (US$ M) (US$ M) Samoa 5.000 8.793 0.150 13.943 Tonga 4.500 6.000 4.579 1.500 0.180 16.759 RMI 0.500 1.000 0.150 1.650 Vanuatu 0.500 1.000 0.150 1.650 PIFS 1.320 0.900 2.220 SPC 3.680 5.794 9.474 Total 10.500 16.793 5.000 5.479 5.794 1.500 0.630 45.696 *Funding requested, but commitment to be confirmed. D. Lessons learned and Reflected in the Project Design 39. The design of the PREP components has taken into consideration lessons learnt from other World Bank projects from within and outside of the region. For example, in response to weak institutional implementing capacity of participating countries, the design of the PREP has sought to build on, consolidate and strengthen existing implementation and institutional agencies for the participating Phase I countries, while being mindful not to over-burden existing resources. In addition, coordination, technical and fiduciary support will be provided to countries through the involvement of regional organizations. There are a number of lessons from DRM and climate resilience projects in the Pacific and elsewhere in the world that have also informed the design of the PREP components, along with lessons from regional programs in the Pacific, and regional IDA programs elsewhere in the world. These lessons are outlined in Annex 11 of this Project Appraisal Document (PAD). 11 IV. IMPLEMENTATION 40. The implementation period for the four countries (Samoa, Tonga, RMI and Vanuatu) in Phase I is planned to take up to five years19. For the first countries, for which the World Bank Board approval is scheduled for June 2015, effectiveness is expected in the fourth quarter of 2015. Completion of Program activities is expected to be June 30, 2020 and the closing date is proposed to be November 30, 2020. A. Institutional and Implementation Arrangements 41. Although both the approach and coordination of the PREP are regional, most of the implementation will take place at the national level via relevant implementing agencies, with support and coordination from the SPC and PIFS, respectively. The detailed PREP institutional framework is attached in Annex 8. This annex also includes an organizational flow chart for Phase I of the Program, which helps to identify responsibilities in relation to coordination, technical and fiduciary support and donor funding. National Arrangements 42. Each country will be responsible for implementing its respective Project. Specific national coordination and implementation arrangements by country are described in Annex 8. 43. The institutional framework for Samoa and Tonga, who are participating in Components 1, 2, 3 and 4 during Phase I of the PREP, will include a National Steering Committee (NSC), headed by a Chairperson. The NSC will provide Project oversight and guidance at the national level. A NSC will not be required for RMI or Vanuatu during Phase I, due to the abridged nature of their Phase I Project design (i.e., incorporating only Component 3.1.2). 44. Each of the national Projects will be implemented at the national level by designated implementing agencies (IAs), which will be either: (i) the ministry, department or agency responsible for climate resilience/DRM; and/or (ii) the Ministry responsible for Finance for each country. Arrangements will differ for each country, as set out in more detail in Annex 8. Regional Arrangements 45. Detailed information on the regional implementation and institutional arrangements is provided in Annex 8. The overall regional program oversight will be ensured by a Regional Steering Committee (RSC). The role of the RSC will be to provide oversight and advice, as well as guidance towards achieving Project and Program objectives and better regional integration. The RSC will include representatives from the highest level of decision making both at the country and regional level. The chairs of the National Steering Committees (NSCs) will be members of the RSC. 46. PIFS will be responsible for the overall regional coordination of the Program under Sub- component 4.2.1. More information on the role of PIFS within the Pacific Region is included in Annex 7. A Regional Coordination Unit (RCU) will be created and housed in PIFS, which will 19 For RMI and Vanuatu, their participation in Component 3.2.1 will be three years, as there will be three premiums financed over a three year period. 12 ensure strategic alignment between the PREP and the preeminent organization for Pacific leaders and will provide PIFS with ownership of the PREP. The RCU will act as the Secretariat of the RSC. 47. SPC will provide technical, fiduciary, monitoring and evaluation support to countries under Sub-component 4.2.2. More information of the role of SPC within the Pacific Region is included in Annex 7. A Program Support Unit (PSU) will be established within SPC and will provide technical and fiduciary support for the implementation and monitoring and evaluation of regional activities as well as support for the implementation and monitoring and evaluation of country Projects. The PSU will undertake the procurement process on behalf of participating countries for joint procurement processes, as well as support the day-to-day implementation and financial reporting and support the capacity of recipient countries fiduciary roles where required. B. Results Monitoring and Evaluation 48. The monitoring and evaluation (M&E) plan of the PREP is based on the key indicators detailed in the Program’s Results Framework in Annex 1. The key indicators have been chosen taking into account the information they provide, as well as the costs and feasibility for any additional data gathering. The baselines for these indicators have been established on the best available data, but will in some cases be re-measured/refined over the first two years of implementation. Results indicators will be gender dis-aggregated when feasible. 49. Responsibility for overall monitoring and evaluation of progress towards the Program and country Project objectives and outcomes will be the responsibility of the implementing agencies in each country, (with support from the PSU) and the PIFS at the regional level. The PREP will support monitoring and evaluation training and expertise as part of the implementation in each country, ensuring that a focal point is assigned to oversee and be responsible for M&E for the country Projects. Furthermore, the PREP will directly support the actual costs of data collection and analysis, as part of each of the three technical components. SPC will be responsible for collecting data from each country as the basis of an M&E report which will be submitted twice per year to the World Bank, together with an updated Project work program and budget. PIFS will support SPREP to report on the five PPCR core indicators at the regional level. 50. A midterm review will be carried out within 24 months after the effectiveness of the Phase I Program and Projects and no later than December 31, 2017 to assess: (i) progress under the Phase I of the Program; (ii) coherence in the implementation of Phase I and progress with preparation of Phase II; (iii) achievement of overall objectives; (iv) the role of the different partners; and (v) reorientation of the Projects and Program, if necessary to ensure that the Program achieves its objectives. At the same time, it will allow the incorporation of lessons learned in the design of Phase II. The Regional Steering Committee through the RCU will be responsible for preparing the necessary documentation for the review and for planning the midterm review meeting. C. Sustainability 51. The PREP will invest significantly in strengthening capacity and existing institutions in charge of early warning, preparedness and response to hydro-meteorological and geophysical 13 hazards (e.g. National Disaster Management Offices, National Meteorological Services, etc.). Technical operations staff including meteorologists, hydrologists and seismologists will be trained to ensure that staff skills and knowledge is current, and to introduce new techniques to improve forecast and warnings. Tools will be developed to monitor and observe, analyse and forecast, and to communicate and disseminate information. The legal framework of warning and response will also be improved in order to facilitate data and information sharing among the key stakeholders. At the community level, existing community organizations will be trained and equipped to increase the capacity of the public to respond to emergencies appropriately. 52. Maintenance of existing equipment for warning and forecasting services is limited (e.g. lack of spare parts, inadequate budget for operations and maintenance etc.). The project will provide guidance to the key Ministries (Finance, Environment) to amend the budget allocation for the maintenance of critical warning and forecasting equipment, for both existing infrastructure and new infrastructure that will be introduced via the PREP. Regional procurement of goods and equipment will ensure technical specifications are harmonized across the region, and will facilitate the management of spare parts. 53. The Program will also strengthen regional cooperation and create a pool of expertise that will be critical to ensure the sustainability of the PREP. Synergies between the pool of expertise created by the Program and the existing PPCR Regional Technical Support Mechanism (a network of experts currently hosted within SPC) will be encouraged, in order to avoid duplication of work, particularly related to the support of hydro-meteorological services and climate risk and resilience. PIFS and SPC, in close collaboration with other regional organizations (e.g. Fiji Tropical Cyclone Warning Center, the Pacific Tsunami Warning Center in Hawaii, Secretariat of Pacific Regional Environment Program, the Oceania Regional Seismic Monitoring Network, and the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs etc.) will provide technical and policy guidance to the countries. These regional organizations will also be able to provide support for the countries with limited capacity. V. KEY RISKS AND MITIGATION MEASURES A. Overall Risk Rating and Explanation of Risks 54. Based on the application of the Systematic Operations Risk-Rating Tool (SORT), the overall risk rating is Substantial. More information on the individual risks that have been rated as substantial is provided below. Sector Strategies and Policies 55. While climate and disaster resilience is being increasingly recognized as a key development challenge in PICs, integration of risk sensitive approaches into sectoral policies is still widely lacking. The sectoral context is complex because: (i) the resilience agenda cuts across multiple sectors; (ii) coordination across sectors is in early stages; and (iii) the capacity of DRM/climate resilience institutions is generally weak and lacking political support. To manage this risk, the Program recognizes the key role of the Ministry of Finance for each participating country and in particular, aims to strengthen the interface between the respective Ministries of Finance and the key DRM/climate resilience agencies for each country. Technical Design of Project or Program 14 56. For Samoa, Tonga, SPC and PIFS, the Program is technically and operationally complex, with a large number of stakeholders, including technically specialized agencies20. To manage this risk, Phase I of the PREP is limited to four countries. There has already been World Bank engagement in the areas of disaster risk management and climate change adaptation/resilience in Samoa, Tonga and Vanuatu, and there has also been some engagement with RMI through PCRAFI. Technical support will be provided at a regional level by SPC, and will be focused around a core set of activities that will include: (i) investments in early warning/preparedness; and (ii) technical assistance (TA) in resilience planning. Where possible, activities for each country will draw from lessons and experience from other participating countries, and activities will be packaged together in larger contracts wherever it is feasible to do so. Institutional Capacity for Implementation and Sustainability 57. There is relatively weak implementation capacity for some of the implementation agencies in the Phase I countries, particularly due to limited human resources. This risk will be mitigated through SPCs participation in the Program. SPC has demonstrated capacity, and will provide real-time support to backstop participating countries. The country level project leads/coordinators will also be supported by the PSU, and significant training and capacity development will be provided to relevant staff through various aspects of the Program. The World Bank will maintain a close dialogue with the regional coordinator and country level leads/coordinators and ensure regular and intensive implementation support missions to provide support in the implementation of the Program, and to identify what works well, along with areas for further improvement that require additional capacity building. Fiduciary 58. Primary fiduciary functions will need to be performed by each implementing agency, however, there is relatively weak fiduciary capacity for some of the implementation agencies in the Phase I countries. Mitigation measures agreed as a result of financial management (FM) and procurement assessments will be implemented, including provision of technical assistance, and compliance with World Bank Procurement and FM requirements, including strong internal financial controls and regular independent audits. The World Bank will monitor this through implementation support missions which will include reviewing the effectiveness and compliance with internal financial controls, review of interim financial reports for accuracy and following up on issues raised in audit reports. Other (external shocks, such as disasters) 59. The Pacific region is hazard-prone and in particular the Phase I countries are renowned for the frequent occurrence of disasters. Should a significant disaster event occur during implementation of the PREP, there is the potential that the attention of the implementing agencies could easily be diverted from the long-term resilience agenda advocated by the PREP, to the immediate disaster response and recovery needs of the country. In order to mitigate this, a Contingency Emergency Response Component (CERC) has been incorporated into the project design in addition to the ex-ante disaster risk financing and insurance mechanism supported by the PREP. This should provide flexibility to the participating countries and minimize disruption 20 Note. The technical design of the Vanuatu and RMI Projects have been rated as low. 15 to the Program in the event of a disaster occurring. VI. APPRAISAL SUMMARY A. Economic and Financial Analysis 60. Although the foreseen climate change effects are documented, their quantitative impacts and climate adaptation benefits are hard to measure due to the limited baseline of historic climatological events and the limitations of global climate models (GCMs) when applied to the Pacific. Despite this, there is clear evidence that economic returns from activities similar to those proposed within Component 1 are very high. Typically, the economic benefits of early warning vary from 1:4 to as high as 1:4021. Annex 9 presents the major benefits anticipated. 61. In addition to all the benefits presented in Annex 9 which could not be quantified, an economic analysis was carried out for PREP based on quantifiable benefits accruing under Components 1 and 2 (the quantifiable benefits from these components are self-reinforcing). As for Component 3, a financial analysis will need to be conducted during project implementation to determine the insurance premium rate acceptable to Pacific Islanders. Component 1 and Component 2 are meant to improve the islanders’ preparedness to face natural disasters and their aftermath, and would translate into fewer casualties and injuries, as well as reduced damages and economic losses. These quantifiable benefits were estimated based on a probabilistic model on annual average recurrent losses in the Pacific Islands, which considers in particular Samoa and Tonga. 62. Economic analysis was performed by using a 10% social discount rate over 20 years based on the opportunity cost of capital and country risk. A sensitivity analysis was performed under a pessimistic scenario (a 15% increase in economic costs over the base case, coupled with a reduction in casualties, injuries and GDP to 15% compared to 20% considered under the base case) and an optimistic scenario (with a 15% reduction of the economic investment costs over the base case, along with a reduction of casualties, injuries and GDP to 25%). In addition, project viability switching value points for equal cost increment and benefit decrement, cost increment and benefit decrement were computed. 63. Table 5 summarizes the results of the economic analysis. PREP under all three scenarios is viable, with positive net present value (NPVs) as well as acceptable economic rates of return (ERRs) and positive present value benefit-cost ratios. PREP under all three scenarios is more sensitive to a decrease in benefits than an increase in costs. In all cases, the switching values points require either significant increases in costs or significant decreases in benefits. See Annex 9 for more details. Table 5: PREP Cost/Benefit, Sensitivity and Scenario Analysis Summary Key Economic Indicator PREP 20 years discounted at 10% Scenario Pessimistic Base Case Optimistic Cost/Benefit Analysis NPV (US$ million) 7.7 21.1 34.6 21 Rogers, David P., and Vladimir V. Tsirkunov. 2013. Weather and Climate Resilience: Effective Preparedness through National Meteorological and Hydrological Services. Directions in Development. Washington, DC: World Bank. 16 ERR (%) 13% 19% 23% PV benefit/cost ratio 1.2 1.6 2.1 Viability Yes Yes Yes Sensitivity Analysis NPV (US$ million) 0.4 0.4 0.6 ERR (%) 10% 10% 10% PV benefit/cost ratio 1.0 1.0 1.0 Switching Value Point >cost = cost (±%) +23% +64% +105% US$0.5 million) are shown below in Table 3 and Table 4. Table 3: Works to be procured by Samoa Procurement Category: Works 1 2 3 4 5 Proc ID Contract (Description) Estimate Cost Procurement Review by (US$ million) Method Bank Construction of National Emergency PREPSamoa/W01 2.423 NCB Prior Operations Center of some 1000 sq m Extension of Seismic Operations PREPSamoa/W02 0.920 Shopping Prior Center (at Mulinu'u) Table 4: Works to be procured by Tonga Procurement Category: Works 1 2 3 4 5 Proc. ID Contract (Description) Estimate Cost Procurement Review by (US$ million) method Bank Tonga Met Department: Building of new facility for MET headquarters PREPTonga/Works 01 2.689 NCB Prior and backup for NEMO and NRD outside the tsunami inundation zone Rehabilitation and construction of Emergency Operation Centers (5Nos) at Vava’u, Niuatoputapu, Niuafo’ou, PREPTonga/Works 03 1.000 NCB Prior Ha’apai, Eu’a 48. Procurement of Goods: Project or Program goods estimated to cost US$500,000 equivalent or more would be procured through ICB procedures. All ICB procurement will be done using the appropriate World Bank Standard Bidding Document (SBD). Off-the-shelf goods of small value of less than US$500,000 may be procured through Shopping. Direct Contracting may be used, but only in exceptional circumstances as stated in paragraph 3.7 of the Procurement Guidelines. The key goods to be procured during the first eighteen months of the Program (i.e., >US$0.5 million) are shown below. 89 90 Table 5: Goods to be Procured by Tonga Procurement Category: Goods 1 2 3 4 5 Ref Contract (Description) Estimate Cost Procurement Review by (US$ million) method Bank Marine and community communication infrastructure (HF PREPTonga/Goods 01 1.500 ICB Prior and VHF) for TMD, NEMO and NRD 49. Selection of Consultant Firms: Consulting contracts expected to cost more than US$500,000 equivalent per contract would use the Quality and Cost Based Selection (QCBS) or Quality Based Selection (QBS) in conformity with the Consultants Guidelines. Consulting services estimated under US$500,000 equivalent per contract may follow the Selection Based on Consultants Qualifications (CQS). The Least-Cost Selection (LCS) would be used for simple assignments such as audit services. Under the circumstances described in paragraph 3.9 of the Consultants Guidelines, consultants may be selected and awarded on a Single-Source Selection (SSS), subject to IDA‘s prior approval. The key consultants to be procured during the first eighteen months of the Program (i.e., >US$0.5 million) are shown below. Table 6: Consultants to be procured by Samoa Procurement Category: Consultant 1 2 3 4 5 Proc. ID Description of Assignment Estimat Cost Selection Review by (US$ million) Method Bank Feasibility study for Investments PREPSamoa/CON 04 0.500 QCBS Prior Phase 2 Table 7: Consultants to be procured by Tonga Procurement Category: Consultant 1 2 3 4 5 Proc. ID Description of Assignment Estimat Cost Procurement Review (US$ million) method by Bank Feasibility study for Investments PREPTonga/CON 04 0.500 QCBS Prior Phase 2 91 Table 8: Consultants to be procured by SPC Procurement Category: Consultant 1 2 3 4 5 Proc. ID Description of Assignment Estimated Selection Review Cost US$ Method by Bank Technical Assistance for the development of Impact forecasting PREPSpc/IF 0.558 ICS Post (tropical cyclone, storm surge, flooding) software and testing Strengthening multi -hazard spatial risk data and information systems PREPSpc/SMH 0.816 ICS Post and Development of the decision tools Table 9: Consultants to be procured by PIFS Procurement Category: Consultant 1 2 3 4 5 Proc. ID Description of Assignment Estimated Selection Review Cost US$ Method by Bank Regional Coordination Unit (RCU) PREPPfis/RCU/CON01 Regional Coordinator RC 0.522 ICS Prior Risk Financing - Climate Change Prior PREPPfis/RCU/CON05 Specialist 0.522 ICS 50. Individual consultants will be selected and contracts awarded in accordance with the provisions of paragraphs 5.1 through 5.5 of the Consultants Guidelines. Under the circumstances described in paragraph 5.6 of the Consultants Guidelines, individual consultants may be selected and awarded on a Single-Source basis, subject to IDA‘s prior approval. 51. Contract Packaging: In view of the isolated locations of the Program countries, the Program adopted a contract packaging strategy that consolidates, to the extent possible, similar bidding into single packages. This is being done for technical reasons, cost-effectiveness considerations, risk management and mobilization costs, and as a strategy to attract wider participation. For the purpose of standardization and compatibility of equipment, similar goods required by the participating countries will be packaged together and procured under a single package. Separate contracts will be signed by each country for the supply of works and goods. The goods to be packaged during the first eighteen months of the Program are shown in Table 10 and 11 below. 92 Table 10: Goods to be packaged by Samoa and Tonga Procurement Category: Goods 1 2 3 4 5 Ref Contract (Description) Estimate Procurement Review Cost method by Bank (US$ million) PREPSamoaTon Bid Package (BP1 with Lots for Samoa and Lots Tonga with ga/ separate contracts) - regional procurement by SPC Goods/BP1 GSM connection for 18 Nos rainfall and Samoa Lot A 16 Nos hydrological sub stations 0.450 ICB Prior Communication infrastructure - computer Samoa Lot B and software FOSS Upgrade of the seismic network including three (3) seismic measuring equipment Tonga Lot A including GPS for volcano and earthquake 0.600 monitoring PREPSamoaTon Bid Package (BP2 with Lots for Samoa and Lots Tonga with ga/ separate contracts) - regional procurement by SPC Goods/BP2 Data management Equipment system, Samoa Lot A including back up at NEOC Forecasting platform Equipment backup at Samoa Lot B NEOC Computers, software for drought and flood 1.100 monitoring, storm surges, coastal Samoa Lot C inundation forecasting and hydrological forecasting (3 independent systems), visual tools for MHEWS at Met Dept ICB Prior Computers, software, furniture, generators for Seismic Operations Center (warning Samoa Lot D dissemination) with back up system at NEOC Data management systems, including back up Tonga Lot A at Tonga Met Dept. and NRD 0.500 Computers, software, visual tools for MHEWSs Tonga Lot B at Met Dept with interactive displays at NEMO and Natural Hazards Dept Computers, software for volcanic and seismic Tonga Lot C monitoring and visualization with back up systems at NEMO and TMD 93 Table 11: Consultants to be Packged by Samoa and Tonga Procurement Category: Consultant 1 2 3 4 5 Proc. ID Description of Assignment Estimate Procurement Review Cost method by Bank (US$ million) PREPSamoa SYSTEM INTEGRATOR CONSULTANT (Regional- Tonga/CON Tonga + Samoa) 01 Detailed Design of the MHEWS system, Development, improvement and Samoa Lot A operationalization of production of basic and 0.900 specialized information products, Development of SOPs, warning protocols and signals QCBS Prior Detailed Design of the MHEWS system including Development, improvement and operationalization of production of basic and Tonga Lot A specialized information products, improvement of 0.655 service delivery to communities and introduction of mobile applications and Development of SOPs, warning protocols and signals 52. Prior Review: Prior review and procurement method thresholds for the Program are shown below and are included in the procurement plan. Table 3: Prior Review and Procurement Method Thresholds Procurement Method Procurement Thresholds Prior Review Threshold Goods Shopping ≤US$500,000 None ICB ≥US$500,000 All contracts subject to prior review Direct Contracting In accordance with authorizing All contracts subject to prior circumstance provided in the review Guidelines Works Shopping ≤US$1,000,000 None NCB ≥US$1,000,000 and ≤US$5,000,000 First two contracts ICB ≥US$5,000,000 All contracts subject to prior review Selection of Consultants Selection Methods Applicability Prior Review Thresholds Firms (QCBS, QBS, LCS, CQS In accordance with the Consultants ≥US$200,000, expect SSS where and SSS) Guidelines (CQS may be used for all contracts subject to prior contracts estimated to review cost≤US$500,000 Individuals Prior Review on exceptional basis only. All sole source and procurement and legal related assignments are subject to prior review. 94 53. Frequency of Procurement Supervision: In addition to the prior-review to be carried out by IDA, IDA procurement supervision missions will visit the field to carry out post-review of procurement activities every 12 months. The post review sampling ratio will be 20% of contracts. 54. Procurement Plan: The overall procurement plan for the Program (including procurement plans for Country Projects) has been agreed. The Program procurement plan will be available on the SPC/PSU website and on the World Bank‘s external website. The country level procurement plans will be published at the country level through their standard mechanisms. The procurement plan will be updated in agreement with IDA annually, or as required, to reflect Program implementation needs and improvements in institutional capacity. III. Environmental and Social Safeguards 55. The PREP has been classified as Environmental Category B, given the expected limited environmental and social impacts. The overall social and environmental impact of the PREP is expected to be positive and none of the eligible investments on the menu of options include activities that would generate significant risk or irreversible adverse environmental or social impacts. To ensure that this is the case and to guide implementing agencies on the: (i) environmental and social screening; and (ii) subsequent assessment of country-specific project activities during project preparation and implementation, an Environmental and Social Management Framework (ESMF) has been prepared. The ESMF sets out key principles and standards, as well as environment and social screening arrangements. The ESMF was disclosed locally in Samoa, Tonga and Fiji, as well as via the World Bank Infoshop on March 5, 2015, prior to the Appraisal of the Program. As the RMI, Vanuatu and PIFS activities do not trigger any safeguard policies, disclosure did not occur for in country for these projects. . 56. The overall environmental impact of the Program is expected to be positive, and none of the eligible investments on the menu of options include activities that would generate significant risk or irreversible adverse environmental impacts. There are three types of investments under the Program with the potential for interactions with the human and physical environment. 57. The first investment type includes eligible minor works activities to be funded under Components 1 and 2. While the specifics these activities are not yet determined, these activities are likely to include monitoring stations and construction/rehabilitation/retrofitting of public buildings and community evacuation centers amongst others. Environment and social impacts from these activities would be only minor and the types of mitigation measures are well-known and proven. 58. The second investment type includes subprojects that will be developed in investment plans under Component 2. The details of these subprojects are not known, however they will be developed through the course of country-specific strategies and plans. Hence the potential environmental and social impacts cannot be ascertained with any certainty. All subprojects proposed under this part will be subject to World Bank screening measures as proposed in the ESMF, with safeguards considerations incorporated into individual country strategies and plans. While these subprojects are yet to be proposed by the country participants, certain proposals will 95 not be eligible for funding under the program and will be screened out (e.g. projects that are Category A). Adherence to the screening procedures identified in the ESMF will ensure that any potential adverse environmental or social impacts from eligible projects are assessed, and appropriate measures are developed to avoid, minimize, mitigate and offset potential impacts. 59. The third investment type includes activities under Component 3.1.1 (CERC). Emergency subprojects financed under the CERC involve financing provision of critical goods or emergency recovery and reconstruction works and it is likely these will fall into Category B or C. Activities that fall under Category C could involve procurement of emergency supplies such as medicine and water and do not require the application of safeguard instruments post-screening or assessment. Other emergency supplies, such as fuel products, will require safeguard instruments (such as Codes of Practice or EMPs) to ensure procurement and storage procedures are adequate. Other potential CERC activities – such as infrastructure repair or utility reconnections - will likely include civil works or similar activities that could have adverse impacts if not properly mitigated, and therefore, fall into Category B. Owing to the unpredictable nature and location of natural disaster events, there is potential for subprojects to be located in or near ecologically sensitive land, and/or in/near areas with high biodiversity or physical cultural resources, on customary land, or to involve Indigenous Peoples and vulnerable groups. Depending on the circumstances of the emergency, it may also require acquisition of land either temporarily or permanently for reconstruction work. 60. In order to ensure that Component 3 emergency subproject activities comply with the requirements of the Bank’s Safeguard Policies, a positive list has been developed in the ESMF for the purpose of country CERCs, in order to provide guidance on critical imports and/or for emergency works, goods or services which may be eligible under for financing under the PREP in times of national disasters. A negative list and screening process will also be included, but will need to allow for a degree of flexibility and efficiency in processing potential subprojects. Further guidance will be detailed in the Finance Agreement (FA) and POM for the PREP in each country. 61. The overall social impact of the project is also expected to be highly positive, as the PREP will support poor and vulnerable communities to make informed decisions on disaster prevention and preparedness by: (i) supporting the provision of early warning mechanisms and improving disaster risk-awareness; and (ii) supporting risk-informed planning and investments to reduce disaster impacts on societies, manage residual risk and uncertainties, and strengthen the capacity of people and institutions to prepare for and respond to disasters. As such, prevention of the social impacts created by natural disasters and climate change underlies the purpose of the Program. 62. It is proposed to trigger the following World Bank safeguard policies for both TA and investment components. No other Safeguard policies are triggered. Table 4: World Bank Safeguard Policies Triggered by PREP Safeguard Policies Triggered? Explanation (Optional) Environmental Yes This policy is triggered because sub-projects involving 96 Assessment OP/BP civil works (Component 1) and entry level investments 4.01 in resilience such as retrofitting public buildings (Component 2) may generate negative environmental or social impacts. Similarly, future subprojects developed under Components 3 (i.e., the CERC) may have environmental and social interactions. An ESMF will be the key safeguard instrument and will contain guidance on preparation of environmental and social impact assessments and associated safeguards documents. To this end, an ESMF has been prepared in accordance with the PIC guidelines and templates. The ESMF was disclosed locally and at the Infoshop on March 5, 2015 prior to appraisal of the Program. Natural Habitats Yes Program activities are not expected to involve OP/BP 4.04 significant loss or degradation of natural habitats, however this policy has been triggered as a precaution since specific sites and activities are not yet known. Forests OP/BP 4.36 Yes The Program will not support any civil works that encroach or adversely impact upon forests. However this policy is triggered as a precaution because limited incidental forest clearing may occur during civil works. Pest Management OP No The Program does not involve procurement or use of 4.09 pesticides. Physical Cultural Yes The Program is not expected to finance any civil works Resources OP/BP 4.11 that could significantly affect Physical Cultural Resources (i.e. these subprojects will be screened out). However building refurbishment may include retrofitting of historical buildings, and civil works may involve chance finds of historically or culturally important resources. Indigenous Peoples Yes Of the 7 or more countries that have been identified for OP/BP 4.10 inclusion in Phase I and potential inclusion in Phase II (RMI, Samoa, Tonga and Vanuatu for Phase I and potentially Fiji, FSM, and the Solomon Islands for Phase II), only the Solomon Islands would ordinarily trigger OP 4.10. It is proposed to trigger OP 4.10 on a precautionary approach as it assists in informing SPC as the Regional Implementing Agency that IP issues may need to be managed during the course of project implementation. Involuntary Yes Although it is expected that the majority of Program Resettlement OP/BP activities will be undertaken on state-owned or Crown 4.12 land, there is potential for certain project activities (e.g. construction of monitoring stations, post-disaster 97 reconstruction) to encroach on customary or private lands. A Resettlement Policy Framework (RPF) has been incorporated into the Program’s ESMF. Safety of Dams No The Program does not involve dams. OP/BP 4.37 Projects on No The Program does not involve international waterways. International Waterways OP/BP 7.50 Projects in Disputed No Any Program activities in areas that may be disputed Areas OP/BP 7.60 will be ineligible 98 ANNEX 9: ECONOMIC ANALYSIS I. Background 1. PREP Phase I countries are exposed to a range of hydro-meteorological and geo-hazards, including tropical cyclones and associated storm surges and flooding, earthquakes and tsunamis. Average annual losses expressed as a percentage of GDP range from 1.7% for Samoa, 2% for RMI, 4.3% for Tonga, and 6.6% for Vanuatu (PCRAFI 2011). Climate change and natural hazards are expected to affect all major economic activities. According to the Asian Development Bank (ADB), the modelled aggregate economic impacts of climate change in the Pacific are negative by 2050 in all scenarios that were considered. Under high emission scenarios, by 2050 these annual losses may reach up to 3.5% of GDP. By 2100, adverse economic impacts are projected to rise further over time up to 13% of GDP1. Although foreseen climate change effects are documented, their quantitative impacts and climate adaptation benefits are hard to measure due to the limited baseline of historic climatological events and the limitations of global climate models (GCMs) when applied to the Pacific. A conventional economic analysis for the project has not been carried out due to the difficulties of quantifying the damage associated with the effects of climate change and natural hazards, as well as the lack of reliable data on avoided economic losses. 2. Component 1. The Bank has developed substantial expertise and leadership in the area of modernization of national meteorological and hydrological services 2, such as the activities proposed under PREP. Bank experience shows that there is a high degree of complexity in the assessment of economic benefits of enhanced early warning, preparedness and response capacity. The primary challenge relates to the absence of systematic recording of damage/losses (both in physical and value terms) incurred by the economy, as well as the sectors and population of countries that are impacted by disaster events. Despite this, there is clear evidence that economic returns from activities similar to those proposed in Component 1 are very high. Typically, the economic benefits of early warning vary from 1:4 to as high as 1:40 3. Losses due to earthquakes and tropical cyclones are estimated to be US$10 million per year for Samoa and US$15.5m per year for Tonga (PCRAFI 2011). In Tonga, US$3.2 million of these losses is associated with emergency losses, i.e., the cost of responding to a disaster. By strengthening the provision of adequate timely warning on the impact of disasters, and ensuring that the population is properly trained and is aware of risks, these costs could be reduced significantly. Accordingly, it is feasible that investments in early warning and preparedness for Tonga under Component 1 could be fully recovered in only a few years. Investments proposed are based on the least cost approach; the project will provide the countries instruments, methods and systems that are 1 Asian Development Bank. 2013. Economic of Climate Change in the Pacific. Manilla. 2 Rogers, David P., and Vladimir V. Tsirkunov. 2013. Weather and Climate Resilience: Effective Preparedness through National Meteorological and Hydrological Services. Directions in Development. Washington, DC: World Bank. 3 Rogers, David P., and Vladimir V. Tsirkunov. 2013. Weather and Climate Resilience: Effective Preparedness through National Meteorological and Hydrological Services. Directions in Development. Washington, DC: World Bank. 99 appropriate for local needs. 3. Component 2. PREP will support the preparation of a multi-sectoral investment plan in resilience, which will include a cost and benefits analysis of various options in order to inform decision making. Economic analysis will be carried out for some investments before funding is recommended. PREP will also support entry level risk reduction investments, e.g., retrofitting, strengthening or relocating buildings which would otherwise be vulnerable to damage by earthquakes, cyclone winds, flooding, storm surge waves and tsunamis. A simple analysis has been conducted to evaluate the economic benefit of building to a higher standard or retrofitting existing structures to achieve a higher level of performance against damage caused by natural hazards (e.g., cyclone winds, earthquake, and floods). This analysis found that in order to increase the design standard to cater for events with return periods equal to the economic life of the structure (10 – 150 years were considered), a 10% increase in initial investment cost would be required, which will deliver future savings of four or more times the initial additional cost. Simple improvements such as seismic bracing in walls and foundations of buildings, use of tie downs and nail plates in roofs for wind loads, increased floor levels or relocation of structures in flood prone areas, are examples of relatively low-cost treatments that might deliver such benefits. 4. Component 3. Disasters resulting from natural events represent a significant contingent liability for PICs and are often associated with large fiscal consequences. Governments serve as a (re)insurer of last resort, often with limited knowledge of the level of disaster risk exposure. Sovereign disaster risk financing and insurance can protect against sudden macroeconomic shocks that negatively impact fiscal performance and a country’s long-term economic development. Catastrophe risk pooling, at the regional level, aggregates risk into larger, more diversified portfolios, with participants benefitting from cost savings and access to international markets. The cost of risk transfer to international markets depends on many factors, including the risk level of the portfolio as a fraction of the size of the portfolio. The pooling of risks generates diversification benefits that are reflected in reduced insurance premiums. Preliminary analysis finds that PICs could reduce the cost of catastrophe risk insurance by 50 percent by pooling risk at the regional level. II. Quantification of Economic Benefits 5. While all benefits presented above could not be quantified, the benefits of Components 1 and 2 combined were quantified to carry out a cost/benefit analysis. The quantified benefits cover averted casualties, injuries and lost activity (in equivalent Gross Domestic Product, GDP) from severe floods. Economic analysis was carried out using a 10% social discount rate over 20 years, based on the opportunity cost of capital and country risk. Sensitivity analysis was carried out under three scenarios: base case, pessimistic case, and optimistic case. In addition, the switching value points for increases in cost and decrease in benefits were determined. 6. Economic analysis was carried out for PREP and based on the only quantifiable benefits accruing under Components 1 and 2 combined (as they are self-reinforcing) while the other benefits are not quantifiable. Analysis of early warning under Component 1 and resilient investments – yet to be defined – under Component 2 improve the islanders’ preparedness to 100 face natural disasters and their aftermath and would translate into fewer casualties and injuries, as well as reductions in damages and economic opportunity losses. These were estimated through a probabilistic model on annual average recurrent losses in the Pacific Islands, in particular Samoa and Tonga. A financial analysis will be conducted during project implementation to determine the insurance premium acceptable to islanders; as such Component 3 is excluded from the analysis. 7. Economic costs of PREP were determined by adjusting estimated financial costs by 10% to remove taxes. No adjustments were made to the financial costs of TA, insurance schemes and program management. 8. A number of socio-economic and environmental benefits that could accrue with the implementation of the project were not valued due to a lack of readily available data. A “without project” scenario could have the following negative direct and indirect effects:  Health. Premature death, drowning, injuries, water-related diseases, vector-borne diseases, etc.  Environmental. Ecosystem services disruption, water resource pollution, sea water intrusion, land degradation.  Global externalities: carbon emission (e.g., due to additional traffic jams, animal putrefaction, vegetal decomposition, etc.);  Damages. To infrastructure (transport, energy, water, etc.), land, households, businesses, private property (including vehicles), etc.  Economic opportunity. Loss of economic opportunities and increased poverty incidence (especially among women) and increased vulnerability (loss of wages, loss of time, yield, sales, commerce, tourism, etc.).  Social. Disruption of health services, schools, universities, etc. 9. The economic benefits for Components 1 and 2 combined are: (i) value of statistical life for premature mortality and the cost of treating injuries; and (ii) averted disruption of economic activity, denominated in GDP equivalent. 10. Key assumptions for the economic analysis of Components 1 and 2 combined are:  The early warning system and small scale resilient civil works investments will benefit the islanders.  Economic analysis was carried out over a period of 20 years (from 2015 to 2034) with the assumption that investments in new Components 1 and 2 assets are needed over the period.  Priority investments are disbursed over the five year implementation of the project.  Component 1 O&M cost was assumed at 2.0% after project implementation. Minor mechanical and electronic equipment investments would be covered by O&M over the lifetime of the investments.  Benefits would accrue as shown in the Project Results Framework indicator targets (Annex 1).  GDP would grow at 2% per annum. 11. Value of Statistical Life. The value of statistical life (VSL) allows the reductions in 101 mortality risks to be monetized. It is derived by dividing an estimate of the value (such as the Willingness to Pay (WTP) for avoiding (or obtaining) a given change in the risk of death by the risk change. As there was no VSL readily available for the Pacific Islands, value transfer was applied on the 2012 United States VSL used by EPA (US$8.2 million) and adjusted for 2015 for both countries. A 2% annual increase in VSL is applied. 12. The formula for the transfer of VSL to adjust for differences in income value is as follows:4 VSLp = VSLs x (Yp / Ys)ß Where: VSLp = Value of statistical life in policy country VSLs = Value of statistical life in study country Yp = Income in the country policy denominated in purchasing power parity dollar (PPP$) Ys = Income in the country of study denominated in purchasing power parity dollar (PPP$) ß = Income elasticity for different environmental goods and services, often between a lower bound of 0.7 and an upper bound of 0.4. The lower bound of 0.7 has been assumed. 13. Cost of Illness. The Cost of Illness is a valuation technique to calculate direct and indirect costs associated with the illness and/or injury, including medical costs and loss in productivity. The cost of illness in the PREP economic analysis takes into account only the costs of hospitalization. The cost of illness is estimated to be equivalent to an average US$3,000 per capita for both Samoa and Tonga, based on an estimate of $200 per day for hospital care and 15 days of hospital care per event. 14. Table 1 illustrates the possible injury/death ratio according to the nature of the catastrophic event. In the case of Samoa and Tonga, injuries exceed deaths as cyclones bear more injuries than deaths. Doccy et al (2013)5 derive the impact of tropical cyclones based on EM-DAT (University of Louvain)6 where the ratio is 3.3:1. A Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO) report on the health burden of catastrophic events in Asia and the Pacific derived an injury/death ratio of 5.2:1 in Oceania.7 A midpoint between both injury/death ratios mentioned above has been considered for the injuries or 4.2:1. Table 1: Patterns of Mortality and Injury after Natural Disasters Death Risk Deaths Exceed Injuries Injuries Exceed Deaths High Storm surges, Tsunamis, Flash Floods Earthquakes Low Floods Tornadoes, Hurricanes, Cyclones (no surge) Source: Adapted from Doocy et al. (2013). 15. Foregone Activities. For Components 1 and 2 combined, 15% of the population will 4 Navrud, Ståle. 2009. Value Transfer Techniques and Expected Uncertainties. New Energy Externalities Developments for Sustainability (NEEDS). Project no: 502687. Deliverable n° 2.1 - RS 3a. SWECO. Stockholm. 5 Doocy S, Dick A, Daniels A, Kirsch TD. 2013. The Human Impact of Tropical Cyclones: a Historical Review of Events 1980- 2009 and Systematic Literature Review. PLOS Currents Disasters. 2013 Apr 16. Edition 1. 6 Louvain University website: . 7 FAO website: . 102 forgo economic and social disruption due to an event and its aftermath to the tune of 0.225% of GDP. This estimate of GDP reduction is based on Hallegatte (2012).8 16. Risk Profile. Table 2 illustrates the risk profile in terms of annual average losses from catastrophic events in the targeted islands as modelled in each country’s 2011 PCRAFI. Table 2: Risk Profile from Catastrophic Events in the Targeted Islands Risk Profile Unit Samoa Tonga RMI Vanuatu Annual Average Losses from Cyclones Direct Losses US$ million 6.9 9.5 3 36.8 Emergency Losses US$ million 1.6 2.2 0.7 8.5 Casualties # 11 10 3 41 Annual Average Losses from Earthquakes and Tsunami Direct Losses US$ million 2.9 6 0.1 11.2 Emergency Losses US$ million 0 0 0 0 Casualties # 8 24 0 45 Total Direct Losses US$ million 9.8 15.5 3.1 48 Emergency Losses US$ million 1.6 2.2 0.7 8.5 Casualties # 19 34 3 86 Source: PCRAFI Samoa, Tonga, Marshalls and Vanuatu (2011). 17. Table 3 illustrates the results of the quantification of VSL, cost of illness and averted forgone economic activities in Samoa and Tonga for the three scenarios where the reduction of casualties, injuries and economic value added on flooding and their aftermath is based on the probabilistic model on the annual average recurrent losses performed for all the Pacific islands notably Samoa and Tonga. The calculation of the social benefits is very conservative and significantly higher social benefits could accrue, especially after the implementation of Phase II of the project, when the Marshall Islands and Vanuatu will be connected to the early warning system and optimal small scale investments will be finalized. The pessimistic, base case and optimistic scenarios will reduce casualties, injuries and economic value added from recurrent events by 15%, 20% and 25% respectively. Table 3: Economic Analysis Social Benefit Scenarios, truncated at year 2015 Indicator Name Pessimistic Base Case Optimistic 2015: 15% 2015: 20% 2015: 25% Samoa GDP per capita (current US$) +2% annual growth 3,841 3,841 3,841 GDP per capita, Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) (current international $) in 2012 4,493 4,493 4,493 Population (Total) 193,450 193,450 193,450 Population growth (annual %) 0.82 0.82 0.82 Population in largest city 34,681 34,681 34,681 8 Hallegatte, Stephane. 2012. A Cost Effective Solution to Reduce Disaster Losses in Developing Countries: Hydro- Meteorological Services, Early Warning, and Evacuation. Policy Research Working Paper # 6058. The World Bank, Washington, D.C. 103 Indicator Name Pessimistic Base Case Optimistic 2015: 15% 2015: 20% 2015: 25% VSL US$ million +2% annual growth 1.57 1.57 1.57 Number of death averted out of yearly 11 annually derived from the probabilistic model 2 2 3 Value of prevented death US$ million 3 3 4 Cost of Illness/Injuries/capita US$ 3,000 3,000 3,000 Number of injured averted 7 9 12 Value of prevented injuries US$ million with US$ 3,000 per case 0.02 0.03 0.03 Prevented damages and losses: 0.225% GDP/capita equivalent 8 8 8 Number of people out of 100% of the population 29,018 38,690 48,363 Value of averted economic activity US$ million 0.25 0.33 0.42 Tonga GDP per capita (current US$) +2% annual growth 4,769 4,769 4,769 GDP per capita, PPP (current international $) in 2012 4,881 4,881 4,881 Population (Total) 120,00 120,000 120,000 Population growth (annual %) 0.48 0.48 0.48 Population in largest city 25,347 25,347 25,347 VSL US$ million +2% annual growth 1.67 1.67 1.67 Number of death averted out of yearly 10 derived from the probabilistic model 2 2 3 Value of prevented death US$ million 2 3 4 Cost of Illness/Injuries/capita US$ 3,000 3,000 3,000 Number of injured averted 6 8 11 Value of prevented injuries US$ million with US$ 3,000 per case 0.02 0.03 0.03 Prevented damages and losses: 0.225% GDP/capita equivalent 11 11 11 Number of people out of 100% of the population 18,000 24,000 30,000 Value of averted economic activity US$ million 0.19 0.26 0.32 Note: Benefits start accruing in year 2019 and are not reflected in the table. Source: Adapted from USEPA website; Ståle (2009); PCRAFI Samoa (2011); PCRAFI Tonga (2011); Hallegate (2012); Boocy et al. (2013); and WDI (2014). III. Results of the Economic Analysis 18. Table 4 summarizes the results of the economic analysis for PREP with a NPV of US$ 21.1 million, an ERR of 19% and a Present Value benefit-cost ratio of 1.6. Table 4: PREP Economic Analysis Results Key Economic Indicator PREP Cost/Benefit Analysis 20 years discounted at 10% Net Present Value (US$ million) 21.1 Estimated Return Rate (%) 19% Present Value benefit/cost ratio 1.6 Viability Yes 19. Table 5 shows the project and component viability switching value points for cost 104 increment, benefit decrement and equal cost increment and benefit decrement. PREP is more sensitive to a decrease in benefits than an increase in costs. Table 5: PREP Switching Value Points Key Economic Indicator Component 1 & 2 PREP Sensitivity Analysis 20 years discounted at 10% 20 years discounted at 10% NPV (US$ million) 0.5 0.4 ERR (%) 10% 10% PV benefit/cost ratio 1.0 1.0 Switching Values point >cost = cost (±%) +190% +64% cost = cost (±%) +19% +64% +105%