Public Disclosure Copy The World Bank Implementation Status & Results Report Development of systems to prevent forest fires and monitor vegetation cover in the Brazilian Cerrado (P143185) Development of systems to prevent forest fires and monitor vegetation cover in the Brazilian Cerrado (P143185) LATIN AMERICA AND CARIBBEAN | Brazil | Environment & Natural Resources Global Practice | Recipient Executed Activities | Investment Project Financing | FY 2016 | Seq No: 5 | ARCHIVED on 23-Jun-2018 | ISR31678 | Implementing Agencies: Fundacao de Desenvolvimento da Pesquisa (FUNDEP), Ministerio da Ciencia, Tecnologia e Inovacao (MCTI), Fundacao de Desenvolvimento da Pesquisa Key Dates Key Project Dates Bank Approval Date:28-Mar-2016 Effectiveness Date:22-Jun-2016 Planned Mid Term Review Date:15-Oct-2018 Actual Mid-Term Review Date:-- Original Closing Date:29-May-2020 Revised Closing Date:29-May-2020 Project Development Objectives Project Development Objective (from Project Appraisal Document)

The objective of the Project is to enhance the Member Country’s institutional capacity in monitoring deforestation, in providing information on fire risks, and in estimating related GHG emissions in the Cerrado.

Has the Project Development Objective been changed since Board Approval of the Project Objective? No PHRPDODEL Components Name Deforestation monitoring:(Cost $4.39 M) Information systems on forest fire risk and GHG emissions estimation:(Cost $3.31 M) Project management, monitoring and evaluation:(Cost $1.55 M) Overall Ratings Name Previous Rating Current Rating Progress towards achievement of PDO  Moderately Satisfactory  Moderately Satisfactory Overall Implementation Progress (IP)  Moderately Unsatisfactory  Moderately Satisfactory Overall Risk Rating  Moderate  Moderate 6/23/2018 Page 1 of 8 Public Disclosure Copy Public Disclosure Copy The World Bank Implementation Status & Results Report Development of systems to prevent forest fires and monitor vegetation cover in the Brazilian Cerrado (P143185) Implementation Status and Key Decisions This Project is part of the Brazil Investment Plan (BIP) under the Forest Investment Program (FIP). The higher-level objective of the BIP, to which the project contributes to is: to promote sustainable land use and to improve forest management in the Cerrado, the second largest biome in Brazil and in South America, to reduce pressure on its remaining forests, to reduce GHG emissions and to increase CO2 sequestration. This project aims at the systematic and continuous generation of information on deforestation, forest degradation, land use, and the development of an early-warning system for preventing forest fires. Accurate, up-to-date, high-quality information should also contribute to enabling better management of the Cerrado. The Project is acting in synergy with the ongoing efforts from the Government of Brazil and other BIP projects, and will contribute to achieve the of objectives of both the National Policy on Climate Change and the Plan to Prevent and Control Deforestation and Fires in the Cerrado. The project is being implemented by the Ministry of Science, Technology, Innovation and Communication (MCTIC) in partnership with National Institute for Space Research (INPE), Federal University of Goiás (UFG), and Federal University of Minas Gerais (UFMG), with support from FUNDEP, the Implementing Agency of the project that handles all the administrative tasks. The Project has three components: (i) deforestation monitoring; (ii) information systems on forest fire risk and GHG emissions estimation; and (iii) project management, monitoring and evaluation. The project overall progress has been accelerated since 2017. The following technical activities are ongoing: (i) development of tools to customize a modeling platform (EGO Dynamics); (ii) development of cartographic bases for the development of a modeling system for Cerrado; (iii) web-GIS project to estimate the accuracy and precision of deforestation polygons; and (iv) time series analysis based on satellite images. Deforestation estimates for the Cerrado biome have been generated by different studies and projects in the past. For instance, estimates of emissions from deforestation in the Cerrado biome were generated for the periods 2009, 2010, 2011-2013, 2013-2015. It should be highlighted, however, that there are differences between the estimates presented in the different studies. Nevertheless, the Cerrado deforestation rate annual series and near-real time deforestation detection information (DETER-Cerrado) under development by this project will be the first to ensure consistency and will be a regular product to be delivered annual, reducing potential inconsistencies in the identification of deforestation patterns in a complex biome like the Cerrado. The Cerrado Biome annual deforestation rates for 2015-2016 and 2016-2017, based on satellite imagery, were officially launched on June 21, 2018. Furthermore, the methodology that is being used to calculate GHG emissions from deforestation (the conversion of forest formations to other land uses) is based on the IPCC guidance for LULUCF. The outputs of the project are expected to be used to report emission from deforestation in the Cerrado biome for results-based payments for REDD+ under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. Regarding the forest fire prevention system, a technical team has been in the field to gather information for the Fire Ignition, Spread and Carbon Model (FISC) for the Cerrado biome; the monitoring teams have started to analyze images to classify them to generate the land-use map planned for the Project; the fire risk team will start to implement the activities to improve the INPE's Vegetation Weather Fire Risk; the emission’s subcomponent has started to review their models and adapt them to the Cerrado biome. To date, 45 consultants have been contracted for the following activities: i) development of tools to customize a modeling platform (EGO Dynamics); ii) development of cartographic bases for the development of a modeling system for Cerrado; iii) web-GIS project to estimate the accuracy and precision of deforestation polygons; iv) time series analysis based on satellite images. These consultants will work for the Project for at least three years, and they are needed to develop the Project's technical products under the technical guidance of the Project Coordinators. Project technical progress can be access in the following webpages: http://www.dpi.inpe.br/fipcerrado/; http://csr.ufmg.br/fipcerrado/; http://www.inpe.br/queimadas/portal; http://dpat.lapig.iesa.ufg.br:4000/; and http://www.dpi.inpe.br/projetos/doku.php?id=terrabrasilis:basededados Risks Systematic Operations Risk-rating Tool Risk Category Rating at Approval Previous Rating Current Rating Political and Governance  Moderate  Moderate  Moderate Macroeconomic  Moderate  Moderate  Moderate Sector Strategies and Policies  Low  Low  Low 6/23/2018 Page 2 of 8 Public Disclosure Copy Public Disclosure Copy The World Bank Implementation Status & Results Report Development of systems to prevent forest fires and monitor vegetation cover in the Brazilian Cerrado (P143185) Technical Design of Project or Program  Low  Low  Low Institutional Capacity for Implementation and Sustainability  Moderate  Substantial  Substantial Fiduciary  Moderate  Moderate  Low Environment and Social  Low  Low  Low Stakeholders  Low  Low  Low Other  --  --  -- Overall  Moderate  Moderate  Moderate Results Project Development Objective Indicators PHINDPDOTBL  Information on deforestation in the Cerrado is regularly made available to the public and relevant institutions (Yes/No, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value N N N Y Date 09-Jun-2017 24-Nov-2017 25-May-2018 29-May-2020 PHINDPDOTBL  Improved information on forest fire risk is publicly available (Yes/No, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value N N N Y Date 16-Dec-2015 24-Nov-2017 25-May-2018 29-May-2020 Comments Partially achieved - many products under the forest fire risk have been developed and are already available to the public. PHINDPDOTBL  Real-time information on potential fire spread in the Cerrado is publicly available (Yes/No, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value N -- N Y 6/23/2018 Page 3 of 8 Public Disclosure Copy Public Disclosure Copy The World Bank Implementation Status & Results Report Development of systems to prevent forest fires and monitor vegetation cover in the Brazilian Cerrado (P143185) Date 16-Dec-2015 -- 25-May-2018 22-Jan-2020 PHINDPDOTBL  GHG emissions estimates for the Cerrado available are publicly available (Yes/No, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value N -- N Y Date 16-Dec-2015 -- 25-May-2018 29-May-2020 PHINDPDOTBL  Government institutions in charge of policy, deforestation control and fire prevention using use the information on deforestation and fire risk in the Cerrado (Number, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 0.00 -- 10.00 15.00 Date 16-Dec-2015 -- 15-May-2018 29-May-2020 Comments ICMBio, Ibama, FUNAI, Ministry of Environment, Brazil Forest Service, INCRA, Fire Department, State Agencies. Overall Comments Intermediate Results Indicators 6/23/2018 Page 4 of 8 Public Disclosure Copy Public Disclosure Copy The World Bank Implementation Status & Results Report Development of systems to prevent forest fires and monitor vegetation cover in the Brazilian Cerrado (P143185) PHINDIRITBL  Govt institutions provided w/ capacity buildg to improve mgt of forest resources (Number, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 0.00 3.00 5.00 15.00 Date 16-Dec-2015 24-Nov-2017 25-May-2018 22-Jan-2020 Comments INPE, MCTIC, UFMG, UFG, ICMBio PHINDIRITBL  Annual deforestation maps on the scale of 1:250.000 are publicly available (PRODES-Cerrado) (Number, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 0.00 -- 2.00 4.00 Date 16-Dec-2015 -- 25-May-2018 22-Jan-2020 Comments 2016 and 2017 have been finalized and will be made public by June 29, 2018. PHINDIRITBL  Deforestation data on the scale of 1:500,000 is delivered daily to deforestation control agencies and monthly to the public (DETER-Cerrado) (Number, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 0.00 0.00 0.00 12.00 Date 16-Dec-2015 24-Nov-2017 25-May-2018 22-Jan-2020 Comments Delayed - two reports are being finalized to be made available by the end of 2018. 6/23/2018 Page 5 of 8 Public Disclosure Copy Public Disclosure Copy The World Bank Implementation Status & Results Report Development of systems to prevent forest fires and monitor vegetation cover in the Brazilian Cerrado (P143185) PHINDIRITBL  New fire risk information products are available to users on interactive communication devices (Number, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 0.00 -- 10.00 26.00 Date 16-Dec-2015 -- 25-May-2018 22-Jan-2020 PHINDIRITBL  On-line fire ignition and fire spread risk (FISC) data is published on INPE’s website. (Percentage, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 0.00 0.00 40.00 100.00 Date 16-Dec-2015 24-Nov-2017 25-May-2018 22-Jan-2020 PHINDIRITBL  Off-line fire ignition and spread risk (FISC) model is piloted in selected conservation areas (Number, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 0.00 -- 3.00 4.00 Date 16-Dec-2015 -- 25-May-2018 22-Jan-2020 PHINDIRITBL  Independent reports on the quality of the project products (Number, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 0.00 0.00 0.00 3.00 Date 16-Dec-2015 24-Nov-2017 25-May-2018 22-Jan-2020 Comments This indicator will be revised or dropped. Overall Comments 6/23/2018 Page 6 of 8 Public Disclosure Copy Public Disclosure Copy The World Bank Implementation Status & Results Report Development of systems to prevent forest fires and monitor vegetation cover in the Brazilian Cerrado (P143185) Data on Financial Performance Disbursements (by loan) Project Loan/Credit/TF Status Currency Original Revised Cancelled Disbursed Undisbursed Disbursed P143185 TF-A1787 Effective USD 9.25 9.25 0.00 1.92 7.33 21% Key Dates (by loan) Project Loan/Credit/TF Status Approval Date Signing Date Effectiveness Date Orig. Closing Date Rev. Closing Date P143185 TF-A1787 Effective 28-Mar-2016 06-Apr-2016 22-Jun-2016 29-May-2020 29-May-2020 Cumulative Disbursements Restructuring History There has been no restructuring to date. 6/23/2018 Page 7 of 8 Public Disclosure Copy Public Disclosure Copy The World Bank Implementation Status & Results Report Development of systems to prevent forest fires and monitor vegetation cover in the Brazilian Cerrado (P143185) Related Project(s) There are no related projects. 6/23/2018 Page 8 of 8 Public Disclosure Copy