77889 v1 Executive Summary Global Tracking Framework executive summary In declaring 2012 the “International Year of Sustainable Energy for All,� the UN General Assembly (2011) established—at the personal initiative of the UN Secretary General—three global objectives to be accomplished by 2030. Those goals are to ensure universal access to modern energy services (including electricity and clean, modern cooking solutions), to double the global rate of improvement in energy efficiency, and to double the share of renewable energy in the global energy mix. Some 70 countries have formally embraced the Sustainable Energy for All (SE4ALL) initiative, while numerous corporations and agencies have pledged tens of billions of dollars to achieve its objectives. As 2012 drew to a close, the UN General Assembly announced a “Decade of Sustainable Energy for All� stretching from 2014 to 2024. Sustaining momentum for the achievement of the SE4ALL objectives will require a means of charting global progress over the years leading to 2030. Construction of the necessary framework has been coordinated by the World Bank/Energy Sector Management Assistance Program (ESMAP) and the International Energy Agency (IEA), in collaboration with 13 other agencies (see logos on final page). The process has benefited from public consultation with more than a hundred stakeholder groups. A new framework for tracking progress toward the goal of “Sustainable Energy for All� The Global Tracking Framework described in this report efficiency. The framework adopts this approach but moves provides an initial system for regular global reporting beyond this initial proxy, using statistical analysis to get based on indicators that are both technically rigorous closer to underlying energy efficiency, as well as comple- and feasible to compute from current global energy menting national energy intensity indicators with equivalent databases, and that offer scope for progressive improve- indicators for four key economic sectors. For renewable ment over time. Although the identification of suitable energy, the indicator is the share of total final energy con- indicators required for the framework posed significant sumption1 derived from all renewable sources (bioenergy, methodological challenges, those challenges were no aerothermal, geothermal, hydro, ocean, solar, wind). more complex than those faced when attempting to measure other aspects of development—such as poverty, To make it possible to track progress, SE4ALL has com- human health, or access to clean water and sanitation piled a global data platform from the full range of available —where global progress has long been tracked. In all household surveys and national energy balances. Those these aspects of development, a sustained effort of sources encompass a large group of countries—ranging building analytical capability and data capacity has been from 181 for clean energy and 212 for modern energy required across most countries. services—that cover an upwards of 98 percent of the world’s population over the period 1990–2010. Indicators For energy access, household survey evidence is used for individual countries can be found in a data annex to the to determine the percentage of the population with an Global Tracking Framework, as well as online through the electricity connection and the percentage of the population World Bank’s Open Data platform: http://data.worldbank. who primarily use non-solid fuels for cooking. Aggregate org/data-catalog. energy intensity has long been used as a proxy for energy 1 Though technically energy cannot be consumed, in this report the term energy consumption means “quantity of energy applied�, following the definition in ISO 50001:2011 and the future standard ISO 13273-1 Energy efficiency and renewable energy sources - Common international terminology Part 1: Energy Efficiency. 2 Global tracking framework Electricity powers a garment factory in Guatemala. Photo: Maria Fleischmann / World Bank Recent progress has been too slow to reach the new objectives By the indicators identified above, the world made major behind global population that grew at 1.3 percent per year advances on the energy front during the last 20 years. An over the same period. This held back the growth of energy additional 1.7 billion people (equivalent to the combined access rates to around just one percentage point of popu- population of India and Sub-Saharan Africa) gained the lation annually. While renewable final energy consumption benefits of electrification, while 1.6 billion people (equiv- grew at 2 percent annually over 1990-2010, this was only alent to the combined population of China and the United slightly ahead of the 1.5 percent annual growth rate in total States) secured access to generally less-polluting non- final energy consumption. As a result, the correspond- solid fuels. Energy intensity has dropped significantly, ing share of renewable energy increased only slightly from avoiding the cost of developing 2,300 exajoules of new 16.6 percent in 1990 to 18.0 percent in 2010. energy supply over the past 20 years, cutting cumulative global energy demand by more than 25 percent over The Global Tracking Framework has set starting points 1990–2010, and leaving 2010 consumption more than a against which progress will be measured under the third lower than it would otherwise have been. Renewable SE4ALL initiative (table ES.1). The rate of access to elec- energy supplied a cumulative total of more than 1,000 tricity and of use of non-solid fuel as the primary fuel for exajoules globally over 1990–2010, an amount comparable cooking will have to increase from their 2010 levels of 83 to the cumulative final energy consumption of China and and 59 percent, respectively, to 100 percent by 2030. The France over the same period. rate of improvement of energy intensity will have to dou- ble from –1.3 percent for 1990–2010 to –2.6 percent for Yet rapid demographic and economic growth over the last 2010–30. The share of renewable energy in the global final 20 years has to some extent diluted the impact of these energy consumption will have to double from an estimated advances. For example, the population with access to starting point of at most 18 percent in 2010, implying an electricity and non-solid fuels grew respectively at 1.2 and objective of up to 36 percent by 2030. 1.1 percent annually over 1990-2010, yet this was slightly The world made major advances on the energy front in the last 20 years … yet rapid demographic and economic growth has to some extend diluted the impact of these advances. executive summary 3 Objective 1 Objective 2 Objective 3 Doubling share Doubling global of renewable Universal access to modern energy services rate of improvement energy in global of energy efficiency energy mix Percentage of Percentage of population with Rate of improvement Renewable energy Proxy indicator population with primary reliance on in energy intensity* share in TFEC electricity access non-solid fuels Historic reference 1990 76 47 16.6 –1.3 Starting point 2010 83 59 18.0 Objective for 2030 100 100 –2.6 36.0 Table ES.1 SE4ALL objectives in historical perspective Source: Authors. Note: TFEC = total final energy consumption *Measured in primary energy terms and GDP at purchasing power parity Groups of “high-impact� and “fast-moving� countries hold the key While progress in all countries is important, achievement objective globally will depend critically on the progress that of the global SE4ALL objectives will depend critically on can be made in these countries. A third group of 20 high- the efforts of certain high-impact countries that have a income and emerging economies accounts for four-fifths particularly large weight in aggregate global performance. of global energy consumption. Thus, the achievement of Two overlapping groups of 20 such countries in Asia and the global SE4ALL objectives for renewable energy and Africa account for about two-thirds of the global electrifica- energy efficiency will not be possible without major prog- tion deficit and four-fifths of the global deficit in access to ress in these high-impact countries. non-solid fuels (figure ES.1). Meeting the universal access Electricity use in classroom to support use of information technology in Namibia. Photo: John Hogg / World Bank 4 Global tracking framework Electricity access non-solid fuel access Primary energy demand Electricity access deficit Non-solid fuel access deficit Primary energy demand deficit (million) deficit (million) (exajoules) (millions of people) (millions of people) (exajoules) India 306 306.2 India 705 705 China 107 107.4 Nigeria 82 82.4 China 613 612.8 USA 93 92.8 Bangladesh 67 66.6 Bangladesh 135 134.9 Russia 29 29.4 Ethiopia 64 63.9 Indonesia 131 131.2 India 29 29 Congo, DR 56 55.9 Nigeria 118 117.8 Japan 21 20.8 Tanzania 38 38.2 Pakistan 111 110.8 Germany 14 13.7 Kenya 31 31.2 Ethiopia 81 81.1 Brazil 11 11.1 Sudan 31 30.9 Congo, DR 61 61.3 France 11 11 Uganda 28 28.5 Vietnam 49 49.4 Canada 10 10.5 Myanmar 25 24.6 Philippines 46 46.2 S. Korea 10 10.5 Mozambique 20 19.9 Myanmar 44 44 Iran 9 8.7 Afghanistan 18 18.5 Tanzania 42 42.3 Indonesia 9 8.7 Korea, DR 18 18 Sudan 34.6 UK 8 8.5 Madagascar 18 17.8 Kenya 32.6 Mexico 8 7.5 Philippines 16 15.6 Uganda 32.2 Italy 7 7.1 Pakistan 15 15 Afghanistan 26.7 S. Arabia 7 7.1 Burkina Faso 14 14.3 Nepal 24.6 S. Africa 6 5.7 Niger 14 14.1 Mozambique 22.2 Ukraine 6 5.5 Indonesia 14 14 Korea, DR 22.2 Spain 5 5.3 Malawi 14 13.6 Ghana 20.4 Australia 5 5.2 figure es.1 Overview of high-impact countries, 2010 Source: Authors. Note: DR = “Democratic Republic of.� FIG o.27 overview of high-impact countries SOURCE: WB, WHO, IEA In charting a course toward the achievement of the SE4ALL relatively easy to make. In the case of renewable energy, objectives, it will also be important to learn from the experi- the fastest-moving countries have experienced compound ence of fast-moving countries that made particularly rapid annual growth rates of 10–15 percent in the consumption progress on the three energy indicators over the period of energy from renewable sources (excluding traditional 1990–2010. In the case of electrification and cooking fuel, biomass), albeit from a very low base. the most fast-moving countries have expanded access by around 3–4 percentage points of their population each On all three aspects of energy sector development, China, year. The most rapid improvements in energy intensity, and to a lesser extent India, stand out as being both amounting to a compound annual growth rate of minus 4–8 high-impact and fast-moving countries. percent, have been achieved in countries that began with high levels of energy intensity, where efficiency gains were The achievement of the global SE4ALL objectives will depend critically on the efforts of certain high-impact countries that have a particularly large weight in aggregate global performance. executive summary 5 Electric lighting supports evening commerce in Morocco. Photo: Arne Hoel / World Bank Gauging the scale of the sustainable energy challenge … What will it take to achieve SE4ALL’s three energy objec- objectives are tentatively estimated to be at least $600–800 tives globally by 2030? Scenarios based on global energy billion per year over and above existing levels, entailing a models make it possible to gauge the scale of the global doubling or tripling of financial flows over current levels. effort required to meet the three objectives. Those scenarios The bulk of those investments are associated with the make it plain that business as usual will not remotely suffice. energy efficiency and renewable energy objectives, with With regard to universal access, business as usual would access-related expenditures representing a relatively small leave 12 percent and 31 percent of the world’s population percentage of the incremental costs (10–20 percent). in 2030 without electricity and modern cooking solutions, Achieving such a steep increase in financing for energy is respectively. With regard to energy efficiency, implementing unlikely to be possible without substantial investment from all currently available measures with reasonable payback the private sector. periods would be enough to meet or even exceed the SE4ALL objective. However, barriers hold back the adop- The global energy models also help to clarify the kinds of tion of many of those measures, with the result that their policy measures that would be needed to reach the three current uptake is relatively low, ranging from about about sustainable energy objectives. The IEA’s World Energy 20 percent for power generation and building construction Outlook (WEO) and the Global Energy Assessment (GEA) to about 40 percent for manufacturing and transportation. of the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis With regard to renewable energy, few scenarios point to (IIASA) coincide in highlighting the importance of phasing renewable energy shares above 30 percent by 2030. out fossil fuel subsidies, pricing energy to fully reflect all the associated local and global environmental costs, Actual global investment in the areas covered by the three embracing consistent global technology standards for SE4ALL objectives has been estimated at about $400 bil- energy efficiency, and carefully designing targeted subsidies lion in 2010. The investments required to achieve the three to increase access to electricity and clean cooking fuels. 6 Global tracking framework Business as usual will not remotely suffice ... achieving the three global SE4ALL objectives will require bold policy measures to stimulate a doubling or tripling of financial flows over current levels. … and the shortest paths to the goal The Global Tracking Framework also clarifies the likely neither energy efficiency nor renewable energy measures pattern of efforts across geographical regions toward the alone will be sufficient to contain global warming to within achievement of the three objectives, based on their starting two degrees Celsius by 2030, but that the two, in tandem, points, their potential for improvement, and their compar- could bring that objective much closer. At the same time, ative advantage. For energy efficiency, the highest rates of achieving universal access to modern energy would improvement—about minus 4 percent annually—are pro- raise global carbon dioxide emissions by a negligible jected for Asia (particularly China) and the countries of the 0.6 percent over business as usual. The GEA estimates former Soviet Union. For renewable energy, Latin America that the probability of limiting global warming to two and Sub-Saharan Africa (the latter owing to its strong reliance degrees Celsius increases to between 66 and 90 percent on traditional biomass) emerge as the regions projected to when the SE4ALL objectives for renewable energy and reach the highest share of renewable energy in 2030—in energy efficiency are simultaneously met—higher than if excess of 50 percent, while much of the rest of the world either objective were met individually. The achievement of will be in the 20–40 percent range. the universal access objective for modern cooking, which would increase reliance on typically fossil-based non- Moreover, the global energy models clarify how the three solid fuels for cooking, would have a small offsetting effect, SE4ALL objectives interact with each other (generally in a reducing the share of renewable energy in the global mix complementary way) and how they affect climate change by some two percentage points, with a negligible impact and other global concerns. The achievement of the renew- on the probability of achieving the two degree Celsius target. able energy objective, for example, will be facilitated by strong progress on energy efficiency that dampens growth in overall energy demand. Moreover, the IEA finds that Better statistical methods for better tracking Looking ahead, while the methodology of the SE4ALL Global of biomass. For energy efficiency, the main concern is to Tracking Framework provides an adequate basis for basic strengthen countries’ capacity to produce disaggregated global tracking, the framework could be vastly improved. data on sectoral and subsectoral energy consumption that To effectively monitor progress through 2030, incremental are fully integrated with measures of the output of those investments in energy data systems will be essential, both same sectors. In the case of renewable energy, the main at the global and national levels. These cost-effective, high- priority will be to improve the ability to gauge the sustain- impact improvements could be implemented over the ability of various forms of renewable energy, particularly next five years contingent on the availability of financial traditional biomass. All of these statistical improvements resources. For energy access, the focus will be to go are required to support the conception and execution of beyond binary measures to a multi-tier framework that policies that produce tangible results. Developing the better captures the quantity and quality of electricity sup- capacity of countries to develop and respond to improved plied, as well as the efficiency, safety and convenience indicators is in itself a significant task. of household cookstoves, including those that make use executive summary 7 Electricity powers critical health equipment to support delivery of newborn baby in Argentina. Photo: Nahuel Berger / World Bank Bold policy and an enabling environment for investment and innovation Finally, given the scale of the challenge of meeting the three mix. A detailed analysis of the policy environment at the SE4ALL objectives for energy, it is clear that bold policy country level lies beyond the immediate scope of this measures, combined with a regulatory and institutional Global Tracking Framework, which has focused on the environment that supports innovation and encourages monitoring of global progress toward the stated SE4ALL investment, will be required to produce the requisite objectives. However, it will be an important focus for future increases in the energy sector’s capacity to widen access, work in support of the critical social, economic, and envi- boost the output derived from a given unit of energy, and ronmental goals that the SE4ALL initiative addresses. raise the share of renewable energy in the overall energy The SE4ALL Global Tracking Framework full report, overview paper, executive summary and associated datasets can be downloaded from the following website: www.worldbank.org/se4all Coordinators For sustainable energy.