99754 For more information, visit http://www.worldbank.org/pro spect s Taking Stock  Greece submitted new economic reform proposal to bailout monitors. The Greek government submitted its economic reform plan to the bailout monitoring institutions on Thursday. These institutions will evaluate the plan before turning it over to Eurozone finance ministers on Saturday. Greece is seeking a three-year loan to cover its financing needs. It offered a package of fiscal reforms, including tax increases and various measures to cut the costs of pensions . Most of these measures were also included in the package that was rejected in the referendum. Eurozone finance ministers will decide whether Greece’s reform plan is sufficient to launch negotiations on a bailout loan.  China’s stock market rebounded following a string of sharp declines. China’s benchmark stock index fell to a three- month low on Wednesday, despite a wave of government measures to stabilize the market. Shares rebounded on Thursday after the country’s securities regulator banned shareholders with large stakes in listed companies from selling, and rose further on Friday. Overall, the benchmark Shanghai Composite index and the smaller Shenzhen index were down 25 percent and 35 percent, respectively, from their peaks in mid-June (Figure 1).  U.S. jobless claims rose. Initial claims for public unemployment benefits in the U.S. rose more than expected to 297,000 for the week ending July 4. Weekly jobless claims have remained below 300,000, a threshold seen as indicating improving labor markets, for 18 consecutive months. The less volatile four-week moving average of claims, considered a better gauge of the labor market, increased to 279,500 from 275,000 in the previous week (Figure 2).  Eurozone retail sales growth slowed in June. The Markit Eurozone retail purchasing managers’ index, which tracks retail sales across the zone’s three largest economies (Germany, France, Italy), fell to 50.4 in June from 51.4 in May. A reading above 50 denotes expansion. Retail sales remained strongest in Germany, with 9 consecutive months of expansion. Meanwhile, retail sales continued to fall in France, although June’s decrease was smaller than in previous months, and remained weak in Italy.  Tanzania delayed borrowing plans. Tanzania’s central bank postponed plans to raise $600 million through a private deal managed by Rand Merchant Bank of South Africa, citing unfavorable market conditions due to the Greek debt crisis. The country has been trying to raise money to boost its foreign exchange reserves and support the budget. FIGURE 1 China’s Shanghai composite stock index fell sharply FIGURE 2 U.S. j obless claims rose in the w eek ending July 4. from its June peak. Index Thousands (4-week moving average) 5,500 310 5,000 300 4,500 290 4,000 280 3,500 270 3,000 260 Jan-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jan-15 May-15 Jun-15 Oct-14 Sep-14 Mar-15 Apr-15 Nov-14 Dec-14 Feb-15 Source: Bloomberg. Source: Bloomberg. P roduced by DECPG (E ung Ju Kim, G erard Kambou, Xinghao G ong). N umber 270 | July 10, 2015 Weekly Insight: Causes of Negative Policy Interest Rates in Europe As an additional measure to stabilize inflation expectations, a number of major central banks in Europe —including the European Central Bank, the Danish National Bank, the Swedish Riksbank, and the Swiss National Bank —have set key policy rates at negative levels in order to further encourage lending by making it costly for commercial banks to hold excess reserves at their central banks.  A number of major central banks in Europe have pushed key short-term policy rates into negative territory. These central banks include the European Central Bank (ECB), the Danish National Bank (DNB), the Swedish Riksbank, and the Swiss National Bank (SNB) (Figure 1). Negative interest rates have been an extremely rare phenomenon: even during the Great Depression, U.S. short-term rates were never negative, and during the height of the recent global financial crisis in 2008 some U.S. Treasury bill yields only very briefly fell below zero. That they have simultaneously appeared in several European countries at a time when global financial markets are not in crisis is unprecedented.  The reasons for negative policy rates by the ECB and the Riksbank are slightly different than those by the DNB and the SNB. In June 2014, the ECB pushed the policy interest rate applied on its deposit facility below zero, with an additional cut in September 2014. In February 2015, the Riksbank also cut its deposit rate below zero. The main motivation for these decisions was to further ease the already accommodative monetary policy stance to fight the growing threat of deflation amid downward pressures to inflation expectations in the second half of last year and into early 2015 (Figure 2). In contrast, the DNB, which maintains its currency within a narrow fluctuation band around the euro, set its deposit rate below zero in July 2012 in response to rising capital inflows amid heightened financial stress in the Euro Area; it pushed the rate down again to negative territory in September 2014, following the ECB. The SNB set its deposit rate below zero in December 2014 amid currency appreciation pressures, and pus hed it further down in January 2015 when it abandoned the Swiss franc’s cap against the euro .  The implementation of these negative policy interest rates have a common element . Commercial banks normally hold deposits at their central bank, mainly to meet legal minimum reserve requirements. Central banks normally pay interest—a “deposit rate”—on commercial banks’ excess reserves (i.e. reserves above the minimum level) . The four aforementioned central banks are now charging (instead of paying) commercial banks for their excess reserves.  Negative deposit rates should provide some encouragement to banks to buy alternative assets and help boost lending. Bank purchases of alternative assets would put upward pressure on prices of such assets and further downward pressure on yields and borrowing costs. This would be transmitted through the economy by a general easing of credit conditions. However, as it will be discussed in subsequent Weekly Insights, negative policy rates have distinct implications for sovereign bond yields and, crucially, for financial stability. FIGURE 3 Interest rates on excess reserves FIGURE 4 Inflation expectations Policy rate on excess reserves, percent 4-year ahead inflation expectations, percent 1 ECB 2.5 Euro Area Denmark 2 Denmark 0.6 Sweden Switzerland Switzerland 1.5 Sweden 0.2 1 -0.2 0.5 0 -0.6 -0.5 -1 -1 Jan-14 Jul-14 Jan-15 Mar-14 May-14 Sep-14 Mar-15 May-15 Nov-14 Jan-14 Jul-14 Jan-15 May-15 May-14 Mar-14 Sep-14 Mar-15 Nov-14 Source: Bloomberg, World Bank. Source: Bloomberg, World Bank. P roduced by DECPG (Carlos Arteta). N umber 270 | July 10, 2015 Major Data Releases Fri, 3 Jul - Thu, 9 Jul 2015 Upcoming releases: Fri, 10 Jul - Thu, 16 Jul 2015 Country Date Indicator Period Actual Forecast Previous Country Date Indicator Period Previous United States 7/2/2015 Unemployment Rate JUN 5.3% 5.4% 5.5% Malaysia 7/10/2015 Industrial Production (Y/Y) MAY 4.0% Eurozone 7/3/2015 Retail Sales (Y/Y) MAY 2.4% 2.3% 2.7% Czech Republic 7/14/2015 GDP (Q/Q) Q2 2.5% Philippines 7/6/2015 PPI (Y/Y) MAY -4.4% -4.5% -5.6% China 7/14/2015 GDP (Q/Q) Q2 1.3% Turkey 7/8/2015 Industrial Production (Y/Y) MAY 2.4% 5.0% 3.8% Turkey 7/15/2015 Unemployment Rate APR 10.0% China 7/8/2015 PPI (Y/Y) JUN -4.8% -4.6% -4.6% South Africa 7/15/2015 Retail Sales (Y/Y) MAY 3.3% Greece 7/9/2015 Unemployment Rate APR 25.6% 25.9% 25.8% Eurozone 7/16/2015 CPI (Y/Y) JUN 0.3% Economic Developments indicators expressed as %ch y/y, except Industrial Production quarterly figures are %ch q/q, annualized 2014 2014 2015 2010 2011 2012 2013 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Industrial Production, S.A. World 8.8 4.7 3.0 2.6 3.7 2.4 2.4 3.9 3.7 3.6 3.5 3.5 3.5 2.7 3.4 3.1 2.9 3.3 2.7 2.5 2.5 2.1 2.0 High Income Countries 7.6 2.9 1.1 0.6 2.9 0.4 0.6 3.2 2.9 2.8 2.2 2.4 2.5 1.3 1.8 1.9 1.5 2.0 1.8 1.4 1.4 1.1 0.7 Developing Countries 10.9 7.9 6.2 5.5 4.9 5.4 5.1 4.9 5.0 4.8 5.5 5.3 5.0 4.8 5.8 5.0 5.0 5.3 4.0 4.1 4.0 3.7 3.9 East Asia and Pacific 14.3 11.3 9.0 8.9 5.1 8.2 6.4 8.4 7.5 8.0 8.2 8.6 7.8 6.6 7.6 7.1 6.6 7.4 6.5 6.2 5.8 5.5 4.9 East Asia x. China 8.9 0.7 4.1 4.6 -0.9 8.8 3.8 6.4 0.4 2.5 4.1 4.8 1.1 4.6 5.7 4.4 4.0 5.0 4.6 3.1 6.4 2.6 -4.6 Europe and Central Asia 11.0 13.1 8.9 2.2 4.9 1.6 1.9 -0.2 4.1 4.1 6.5 3.6 4.0 2.4 2.8 2.6 2.1 1.4 0.0 2.0 3.0 1.7 - Latin America and Caribbean 6.2 2.6 -0.1 1.0 0.7 -2.8 -0.9 -3.2 1.9 -1.9 -1.1 -3.0 -1.7 -1.1 -1.5 -1.0 -2.1 -1.7 -2.6 -2.9 -3.0 -3.7 - Middle East and N. Africa 2.0 -8.5 5.6 -6.6 18.8 2.3 28.4 -2.3 -9.2 -9.5 -7.4 -4.5 -0.1 11.3 16.3 12.1 13.2 8.1 -0.3 -0.3 5.2 4.8 5.2 South Asia 9.3 5.5 1.1 1.7 7.4 4.9 1.4 -1.8 0.3 3.9 5.3 4.5 1.6 2.0 3.5 -1.5 5.9 4.3 3.4 5.1 3.6 5.0 - Sub-Saharan Africa 4.3 3.4 3.2 1.6 -4.3 0.3 -3.8 9.3 0.6 1.1 -0.9 1.1 -6.3 -0.2 6.4 1.5 -0.9 0.2 -1.4 0.3 3.8 -1.3 - Inflation, S.A. 1 High Income Countries 1.7 2.8 2.0 1.5 1.4 2.0 1.8 1.4 1.5 2.0 2.0 2.0 1.8 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.5 1.2 0.9 1.0 1.1 0.9 1.0 Developing Countries 5.8 7.5 6.4 7.4 7.4 7.6 7.9 7.8 7.4 7.5 7.8 7.6 7.9 7.9 7.8 7.7 7.7 8.1 7.6 7.8 7.8 7.7 7.5 East Asia and Pacific 3.4 5.6 2.8 3.0 3.0 2.9 2.5 2.2 3.0 2.6 3.1 3.0 2.8 2.5 2.2 2.1 2.2 2.3 1.5 2.0 2.0 2.2 1.9 Europe and Central Asia 7.3 8.2 8.7 6.2 5.8 7.4 7.9 8.2 6.2 7.0 7.6 7.5 7.7 8.0 8.1 8.2 8.4 7.9 7.6 8.2 9.1 10.3 10.3 Latin America and Caribbean 6.4 7.5 6.7 9.8 12.4 13.8 15.4 16.7 12.8 13.5 13.8 14.1 14.8 15.3 15.9 16.2 16.5 17.5 17.1 16.8 16.4 15.1 14.4 Middle East and N. Africa 7.0 12.0 13.8 19.2 13.2 9.7 10.1 10.7 11.3 10.2 9.9 9.2 9.9 10.2 10.1 10.5 10.5 11.2 10.3 10.9 11.1 11.2 11.7 South Asia 10.3 9.8 9.4 10.1 8.1 7.8 6.7 4.2 8.1 8.4 8.1 6.8 7.3 6.9 5.8 4.8 3.5 4.4 5.1 5.1 4.9 4.6 4.8 Sub-Saharan Africa 7.5 10.1 11.1 8.1 8.6 9.2 9.8 8.4 8.5 8.7 9.2 9.7 9.9 10.1 9.3 8.3 8.4 8.5 7.6 7.5 7.5 7.9 8.4 1 Inflation is calculated as the GDP-weighted average for all groups. Trade and Finance indicators expressed as %ch y/y, except International Reserves are %ch p/p and trade quarterly figures are %ch q/q, annualized 2014 2015 2010 2011 2012 2013 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Exports, Nominal, US$, S.A. World 21.9 19.2 0.3 1.8 -1.8 3.3 2.3 -16.1 2.8 2.4 4.0 3.3 5.7 0.6 2.7 -1.7 -4.6 -3.9 -11.3 -7.3 -13.0 -13.6 - High Income Countries 19.5 18.5 -1.1 1.2 1.1 1.0 -1.7 -19.3 5.4 3.2 4.2 2.6 5.0 -0.5 1.0 -3.4 -6.3 -5.7 -12.8 -13.3 -13.3 -15.12 - Developing Countries 28.3 20.8 3.5 3.1 -8.3 9.0 11.9 -9.0 -2.9 0.7 3.4 4.8 7.2 2.9 6.5 2.1 -0.7 0.0 -8.0 7.0 -12.3 -10.14 -9.3 East Asia and Pacific 30.8 19.7 6.3 6.5 -12.0 16.3 19.6 2.5 -3.6 2.4 5.6 7.7 11.3 8.2 12.7 8.3 3.5 5.8 -3.3 29.4 -11.6 -6.566 -4.1 Europe and Central Asia 15.5 20.3 -0.1 -0.2 8.9 -5.1 -7.3 -28.5 9.1 3.0 6.3 5.2 5.6 -4.0 -0.9 -6.5 -9.4 -11.3 -13.2 -15.5 -17.0 -16.03 - Latin America and Caribbean 28.1 23.2 1.7 0.6 -9.3 9.4 3.2 -25.6 -2.8 -0.4 1.4 1.8 5.8 -0.5 0.0 -4.3 -8.8 -6.6 -8.2 -12.7 -4.9 -12.1 -15.5 Middle East and N. Africa 23.7 15.9 5.1 -10.9 0.0 -13.5 24.0 -33.5 -13.7 -13.2 -8.8 -9.6 -4.7 -8.5 -1.9 -5.5 -7.9 -11.0 -29.2 -35.2 -24.7 - - South Asia 34.4 31.4 -1.8 6.2 -7.4 7.5 5.5 -2.0 1.4 5.2 11.0 8.4 0.1 1.5 -0.3 -5.5 8.7 -0.7 -7.5 -11.5 -17.6 -11.28 -16.7 Sub-Saharan Africa 32.7 19.8 -2.4 -1.1 -3.9 -7.9 -2.8 -17.4 -6.8 -5.1 -9.0 -3.0 -1.8 -10.3 -2.3 -8.3 -8.1 -8.1 -26.9 -26.5 -13.4 - - Imports, Nominal, US$, S.A. World 21.0 19.6 0.7 1.5 4.2 -1.4 1.1 -15.7 3.8 1.9 2.0 5.4 3.2 0.5 3.9 -1.9 -4.2 -3.7 -13.8 -13.3 -11.7 -15.15 - High Income Countries 17.9 17.7 -1.0 0.4 5.0 1.1 -3.0 -18.5 7.6 4.3 4.2 6.4 5.4 0.4 2.3 -3.0 -5.4 -4.5 -13.8 -13.4 -12.9 -15.96 - Developing Countries 29.7 24.5 4.7 4.0 2.3 -6.6 10.9 -9.4 -4.0 -3.3 -2.6 3.1 -1.5 0.7 7.5 0.6 -1.7 -2.0 -13.8 -13.0 -8.9 -13.32 -16.2 East Asia and Pacific 37.3 24.1 5.7 6.2 5.0 -14.4 13.4 -9.2 -9.9 -2.2 -3.4 3.7 -2.4 -0.7 7.1 2.9 -5.2 -3.4 -17.6 -17.3 -9.6 -14.17 -16.1 Europe and Central Asia 20.6 27.1 -0.4 2.9 -10.1 -5.3 -7.0 -10.0 -0.4 -5.2 -2.9 0.0 -7.3 -4.3 -4.4 -7.2 -8.3 -8.8 -15.1 -13.4 -12.8 -17.38 - Latin America and Caribbean 29.0 22.3 3.8 2.9 2.6 -1.8 5.5 -6.6 2.8 -4.7 -1.7 2.8 -0.5 -1.7 7.7 -4.2 0.4 3.6 -7.6 -8.0 -0.7 -10.91 -14.3 Middle East and N. Africa 14.9 17.4 10.8 3.9 -0.5 -3.3 16.4 -19.8 2.7 1.6 3.1 -2.2 0.9 10.9 7.7 -1.3 -3.9 -2.7 -11.2 -7.0 -11.0 - - South Asia 33.9 31.4 4.0 -4.0 9.6 10.6 33.9 -12.9 1.5 -9.8 -9.1 9.1 4.1 6.9 23.7 7.1 21.5 -1.2 -12.3 -12.7 -12.3 -7.871 -13.5 Sub-Saharan Africa 13.0 24.9 4.3 6.4 -1.1 14.9 2.6 2.9 4.0 1.3 6.4 3.0 3.5 6.6 8.9 4.6 2.4 7.0 -2.0 2.1 -10.0 - - International Reserves, US$ High Income Countries 10.2 11.3 9.2 3.6 0.8 0.7 -1.8 -1.5 0.3 0.0 0.3 0.5 -0.4 -0.1 -1.3 -0.6 0.0 -0.9 0.2 -0.1 -0.6 0.7 -0.31 Developing Countries 15.6 10.5 5.2 8.2 1.8 1.5 -2.0 -1.7 0.7 1.0 0.1 0.4 -0.2 -0.1 -1.7 -0.7 -0.3 -0.7 -0.7 -0.3 -1.6 - - East Asia and Pacific 19.3 11.9 4.5 12.2 3.0 1.2 -2.5 -1.4 0.8 0.9 0.1 0.3 -0.5 0.1 -2.1 -0.8 -0.3 -0.4 -0.8 -0.2 -1.9 - - Europe and Central Asia 9.3 5.5 7.8 3.6 -2.9 3.4 -1.7 -7.2 0.6 1.6 0.7 1.0 -1.1 1.1 -1.7 -2.0 -1.1 -4.2 -0.9 -3.2 -2.1 1.4 -0.30 Latin America and Caribbean 16.2 16.3 8.4 -1.1 0.2 3.4 1.2 -1.2 0.1 1.5 0.6 1.2 1.1 0.0 0.1 -0.1 0.7 -1.8 0.5 -0.3 -0.4 0.7 -0.3 Middle East and N. Africa 6.1 3.0 5.9 3.0 -1.9 -2.2 -3.8 -3.2 -0.8 -0.8 -0.9 -0.6 -0.4 -1.1 -2.3 -0.2 -1.0 -2.1 -3.7 -0.8 -2.9 - - South Asia 6.1 -0.9 0.4 -0.2 3.8 5.6 -0.6 2.1 3.3 2.9 1.1 1.5 1.3 -0.4 -1.4 0.5 -0.3 1.9 1.8 3.2 0.7 1.6 1.5 P roduced by DECPG (Trang N guyen, G erard Kambou and Xinghao G ong). N umber 270 | July 10, 2015 Financial Markets 1 2013 2014 2014 2015 MRV Chg since 2010 2011 2012 2013 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May June Sep-12 '08 3 Interest rates and LIBOR (%) U.S. Fed Funds Effective 0.18 0.10 0.14 0.11 0.09 0.07 0.09 0.09 0.10 0.10 0.09 0.09 0.09 0.09 0.09 0.12 0.12 0.11 0.11 0.12 0.12 0.13 0.13 -1.97 ECB repo 1.00 1.25 0.88 0.55 0.35 0.25 0.22 0.12 0.05 0.16 0.15 0.15 0.06 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.00 0.05 -4.20 US$ LIBOR 3-months 0.34 0.34 0.43 0.27 0.24 0.24 0.23 0.23 0.24 0.23 0.23 0.23 0.23 0.23 0.23 0.25 0.25 0.26 0.27 0.28 0.28 0.28 0.28 -2.54 EURIBOR 3-months 0.75 1.34 0.49 0.15 0.20 0.27 0.27 0.13 0.00 0.21 0.17 0.16 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.06 -4.89 US 10-yr Treasury yield 3.20 2.77 1.79 2.33 2.73 2.75 2.61 2.49 2.27 2.59 2.53 2.41 2.52 2.29 2.32 2.20 1.88 1.98 2.04 1.92 2.19 2.35 2.29 -1.43 German Bund, 10 yr 2.78 2.65 1.57 1.63 1.79 1.68 1.43 1.07 0.77 1.35 1.19 1.01 1.00 0.87 0.79 0.64 0.45 0.35 0.26 0.16 0.58 0.83 0.64 -3.54 Spreads (basis points) JP Morgan Emerging Markets 301 341 342 319 342 352 300 301 367 282 282 310 312 349 350 402 443 420 411 388 369 384 397 40 Asia 206 218 216 219 237 231 197 195 202 189 195 202 187 207 193 206 233 215 208 206 195 203 213 -83 Europe 247 301 320 267 290 301 265 262 319 236 244 274 270 295 293 368 417 396 384 350 327 330 336 23 Latin America & Caribbean 360 404 393 379 409 429 360 366 471 343 336 373 390 443 455 516 560 531 521 488 471 504 520 132 Middle East 342 366 449 435 428 408 376 369 398 360 372 379 358 395 388 411 452 452 443 441 409 410 423 -75 Africa 274 364 337 322 338 332 287 280 319 278 278 292 270 307 306 343 385 364 371 361 345 358 374 374 Stock Indices (end of period) 2 Global (MSCI) 331 300 340 409 409 411 429 417 417 429 423 432 417 419 426 417 410 432 425 436 435 424 414 29.4 High-Income ($ Index) 1280 1183 1339 1661 1661 1674 1743 1698 1710 1743 1714 1749 1698 1708 1740 1710 1678 1773 1741 1778 1779 1736 1707 33.0 United States (S&P-500) 1258 1258 1426 1848 1848 1872 1960 1972 2059 1960 1931 2003 1972 2018 2068 2059 1995 2105 2068 2086 2107 2063 2047 63.5 Euro Area (S&P-350$) 1124 1005 1143 1339 1339 1361 1401 1411 1401 1401 1380 1404 1411 1382 1425 1401 1502 1603 1624 1618 1630 1552 1519 31.4 Japan (Nikkei-225) 10229 8455 10395 16291 16291 14828 15162 16174 0 15162 15621 15425 16174 16414 17460 0 17674 18798 19207 19520 20563 20236 19738 61.6 Developing Markets (MSCI) 1151 916 1055 1003 1003 995 1051 1005 956 1051 1066 1088 1005 1016 1005 956 962 990 975 1048 1004 972 905 5.7 EM Asia 468 379 447 446 446 444 472 460 457 472 485 489 460 467 467 457 468 479 481 514 499 475 439 34.0 EM Europe 529 395 473 438 438 409 435 374 297 435 403 399 374 369 353 297 286 313 302 338 320 311 295 -42.0 EM Europe & Middle East 450 336 402 372 372 348 360 321 257 360 340 337 321 314 303 257 247 269 258 286 271 266 253 -38.1 EM Latin America & Caribbean 4614 3602 3798 3201 3201 3194 3370 3171 2728 3370 3399 3664 3171 3158 3008 2728 2555 2654 2451 2693 2496 2517 2402 -32.1 Exchange Rates (LCU / USD) High Income Euro Area 0.76 0.72 0.78 0.75 0.73 0.73 0.73 0.76 0.80 0.74 0.74 0.75 0.78 0.79 0.80 0.81 0.86 0.88 0.92 0.92 0.90 0.89 0.91 28.8 Japan 87.76 79.74 79.85 97.61 100.51 102.78 102.14 104.04 114.62 102.07 101.75 102.98 107.39 108.02 116.40 119.44 118.33 118.78 120.37 119.53 120.87 123.74 122.69 13.7 Developing Brazil 1.76 1.67 1.95 2.16 2.28 2.36 2.23 2.28 2.55 2.23 2.22 2.27 2.34 2.45 2.55 2.65 2.64 2.82 3.15 3.04 3.06 3.11 3.14 76.2 China 6.77 6.46 6.31 6.15 6.09 6.10 6.23 6.16 6.15 6.23 6.20 6.15 6.14 6.13 6.13 6.19 6.22 6.25 6.24 6.20 6.20 6.21 6.21 -9.3 Egypt 5.63 5.94 6.07 6.87 6.89 6.96 7.07 7.15 7.15 7.15 7.15 7.15 7.15 7.15 7.15 7.15 7.27 7.59 7.60 7.60 7.62 7.63 7.83 44.3 India 45.73 46.67 53.41 58.55 62.00 61.75 59.82 60.59 61.96 59.76 60.06 60.83 60.87 61.40 61.70 62.77 62.20 62.06 62.48 62.69 63.76 63.84 63.40 38.7 Russia 30.37 29.41 31.06 31.86 32.56 35.07 34.96 36.31 47.98 34.37 34.75 36.17 38.01 40.96 46.30 56.67 64.33 64.16 60.13 52.82 50.65 54.60 56.90 122.9 South Africa 7.32 7.26 8.21 9.65 10.16 10.86 10.54 10.77 11.22 10.68 10.66 10.66 10.99 11.06 11.09 11.51 11.56 11.58 12.08 11.99 11.97 12.29 12.39 55.1 Memo: USA nominal effective rate 100.19 98.53 102.00 104.76 106.30 108.31 108.66 110.57 114.05 109.31 109.43 110.61 111.67 112.66 113.83 115.67 117.82 119.65 121.73 121.39 121.03 122.06 122.92 28.3 1 MRV = Most Recent Value. 2 MSCI Indices for Asia, Africa, and Europe and C. Asia, for 2008 are calculated from February-December, due to data availability. 3 Change expressed in levels for interest rates and spreads; percent change for stock market and exchange rates. Commodity Prices 2013 2014 2014 MRV Chg since 2010 2011 2012 2013 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May June Sep-12 '08 3 Oil price, $/b, nominal 1 79 104 105 104 105 104 106 100 75 108 105 100 96 86 77 61 47 55 53 57 63 61 55 -43.3 Non - Oil Index 2 .. 97 87 80 76 76 78 74 71 77 76 75 72 71 72 70 67 66 64 64 65 63 63 .. 3 Metals and Minerals Index 103 117 99 94 92 88 87 89 83 87 90 90 87 84 84 80 75 74 73 73 76 72 67 -35.6 Baltic Dry Index 4 2755 1545 916 1215 1876 1375 980 954 1105 912 796 944 1123 1101 1332 881 727 539 576 591 596 699 815 -83.0 1 Simple average of Brent, Dubai and WTI. 2 Base Date = Jan 3, 2011 due to data availability. The Index component combination in the Weekly tables differs from that of the Pink Sheet. 3 Base Date = Jan 4, 2010 due to data availability. The Index component combination in the Weekly tables differs from that of the Pink Sheet. 4 Base Date = May 1, 1985 P roduced by DECPG (Trang N guyen, G erard Kambou and Xinghao G ong). N umber 270 | July 10, 2015