The World Bank Improving Administrative Records for SDGs implementation and evidence-based policymaking in Paraguay Project Information Document/ Identification/Concept Stage (PID) Public Disclosure Copy Concept Stage | Date Prepared/Updated: 06-Jun-2019 | Report No: PIDC185768 Jun 06, 2019 Page 1 of 9 The World Bank Improving Administrative Records for SDGs implementation and evidence-based policymaking in Paraguay BASIC INFORMATION A. Basic Project Data Environmental and Project ID Parent Project ID (if any) Social Risk Project Name Classification Low Improving Administrative Records for SDGs P170670 implementation and evidence-based policymaking in Paraguay Region Country Date PID Prepared Estimated Date of Approval LATIN AMERICA AND Paraguay 06-Jun-2019 Public Disclosure Copy CARIBBEAN Financing Instrument Borrower(s) Implementing Agency Investment Project Government of Paraguay Instituto Desarrollo Financing PROJECT FINANCING DATA (US$, Millions) SUMMARY -NewFin1 Total Project Cost 0.35 Total Financing 0.35 Financing Gap 0.00 DETAILS -NewFinEnh1 Non-World Bank Group Financing Trust Funds 0.35 Trust Fund for Statistical Capacity Building 0.35 B. Introduction and Context Country Context Paraguay has made significant progress in its main economic and social indicators over the last 15 years. Since 2003, gross domestic product (GDP) has grown at 4.5% annually, outperforming most other countries in Latin America and the Caribbean (BCP 2018). Poverty and extreme poverty have dropped, respectively, from 58% and 16% in 2002 to 26% and 4% in 2017 (DGEEC 2018). Employment creation has increased at 2.8% Jun 06, 2019 Page 2 of 9 The World Bank Improving Administrative Records for SDGs implementation and evidence-based policymaking in Paraguay per annum, faster than the growth of the working age population (OCDE 2017). Income growth for the bottom 40% grew at the rapid pace of 5.7% annually during 2003-2013 and, in particular, faster than average income. The middle class has expanded since 2003, currently including 38% of Paraguayans (WB 2018b). However, Paraguay still exhibits important bottlenecks which prevent the country from moving toward higher income levels. Among these, the World Bank (2018b) highlights the low investment levels in human capital and infrastructure, limited fiscal space due to a generous tax regime, poor governance, volatile growth, and low environmental sustainability. Besides these obstacles to development, the OECD (2017) also stresses the prevalent informality, fragmentation of the social protection system, stunted competitiveness due to limited innovation, and poor land administration. With the purpose of confronting these issues and maintaining its positive development performance in the coming years, in 2014, Paraguay adopted its first National Development Plan (NDP), a mid-term agenda to Public Disclosure Copy the year 2030 conceived via a 14-month long highly participatory process. Even though the NDP preceded the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), both agendas present a 92% coincidence at the target level (with respect to the 169 targets of the SDGs). In this way, Paraguay’s development agenda is SDGs-aligned. Therefore, as the national budget and subnational action plans have undergone processes of alignment with the NDP, they have also become aligned with the SDGs. Today, each dollar from the national budget and each initiative from a local government featured in its action plan can be traced back to one or more SDGs targets. This setup facilitates policy design to achieve the SDGs. However, to truly foster evidence-based policymaking for the SDGs, Paraguay needs to strengthen its statistical capacity on several fronts. Among these, health and education are pivotal ones. Sectoral and Institutional Context Generation of statistics in Paraguay is broadly consistent with internationally accepted standards, such as the Code of Good Practice in Statistics in Latin America and the Caribbean. However, the quality of statistics is endangered by issues such as weak coordination of the National Statistics System by the National Statistical Office (DGEEC by its Spanish acronym) and unfit procedures for data sharing and coordination between the different agencies that produce statistics in Paraguay (OECD 2017). Since 2013, the production of statistics in Paraguay is guided by the National Strategy for the Development of Statistics (NSDS), the first of its kind written for the country. The NSDS highlights the need for improvements in the entire statistical production process, from the construction to the revision of data collection instruments, procedure manuals, data systematization and dissemination (DGEEC 2013). On administrative records in particular, the NSDS warns that since these are not designed for statistical purposes, data quality could be negatively impacted if relevant procedures are not in place (DGEEC 2013). Jun 06, 2019 Page 3 of 9 The World Bank Improving Administrative Records for SDGs implementation and evidence-based policymaking in Paraguay For this reason, it is necessary to take actions that make administrative records more fit for statistical production and use in evidence-based policymaking toward the SDGs implementation. According to the 2015 Inventory of Statistical Operations, around 33% of the statistical operations carried out by public institutions in the country is based on administrative records. Moreover, among the forms of primary data collection, use of administrative data is listed as the most common (DGEEC 2015). Given the broad use of administrative records for statistical production in Paraguay, it would greatly enhance Paraguay’s potential for evidence-based decision making toward achieving the SDGs when quality assurance and capacity is built on key areas associated with administrative data. In particular, the Ministry of Health and Social Welfare currently has over 20 different administrative record management software packages, allowing for inefficiencies in the handling of information, in part due to discrepancies in the formats used to manually enter records. Work has begun to implement a unified Health Public Disclosure Copy Information System (HIS) that incorporates all these software packages. Yet the lack of a data-centered culture at the Ministry of Health necessitates external support to incorporate evidence-based policymaking at the institutional level. For its part, the Ministry of Education and Sciences is currently working to improve its capacity to generate primary information on access to education through the improvement of its information system, in particular of the unified registry of students. As well, in Paraguay, as in most of LAC Countries, the processes for strengthening administrative records and its potential statistical use, have been focused on systematization, without assessing quality and completeness. This project proposal advances three of the main objectives of the NSDS in the context of improving administrative records (AR) for evidence-based policymaking: 1. to promote the development of the National Statistical System so that it produces high-quality AR- based statistics in a coordinated manner, 2. to assess quality and completeness of AR, establishing improvement plans and developing adjustment factors, 3. to improve AR data management, processing, and dissemination for policymaking, and 4. to strengthen the institutional capacity of the offices in charge of AR-based statistical production (DGEEC 2013). Relationship to CPF The current World Bank Country Partnership Strategy (CPS) for Paraguay is fully in line with the SDGs-aligned NDP and aims to contribute to its overall poverty and equity targets. The results framework chosen for the CPS derives from the targets outlined in the SDGs-aligned NDP. Better measurement of these targets will most likely lead to better outcomes in SDGs, NDP, and CPS objectives. CPS has specifically committed to Jun 06, 2019 Page 4 of 9 The World Bank Improving Administrative Records for SDGs implementation and evidence-based policymaking in Paraguay provide technical assistance—through the Paraguay Analytical and Advisory Program—to the overall monitoring and evaluation of the SDGs-aligned NDP. In several sections of the CPS, the need for a stronger statistical capacity in Paraguay is highlighted. In particular, in the results area of “Boosting pro-poor delivery of public good and services”, the CPS stresses the need for improved social accountability and transparency. Among the expected results described in this area, new information tools and datasets for the education sector are included. Education is a key sector where administrative records are used for statistical production. Furthermore, among the lessons learned from the previous Country Partnership Strategy in areas of employment generation and poverty alleviation, the need for programmatic work in the key issue of building capacity in government institutions is emphasized. Public Disclosure Copy C. Project Development Objective(s) Proposed Development Objective(s) Improved quality in the production and use of administrative records for evidence-based policymaking to support the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) 2, 3, 4, and 10 (Zero Hunger, Good Health and Wellbeing, Quality Education, and Reduced Inequality). Key Results i. Assessed quality and completeness of the main administrative records used in Paraguay for reporting indicators of the SDGs 2, 3, 4 and 10. ii. Assessed and proposed improvements in the regulation of the production and use of SDGs-related administrative records at the Paraguayan Ministry of Health and Social Welfare and Ministry of Education and Sciences, as part of the National Statistical System iii. Built capacity on good practices in collecting SDGs-related administrative records among public officials from the Ministry of Health and Social Welfare and the Ministry of Education and Sciences in Paraguay. iv. Built capacity for evidence-based policymaking among high-level policymakers in health and education-related areas, with emphasis on the timely use of administrative records. v. Trained health and education-related policy analysts in modern statistical and machine learning methodology for evidence-based policy making and predictive systems, using large and complex administrative records databases. vi. Built capacity among producers of administrative records for adequately disseminating health and education-related administrative records among the public, media, and academic community, in compliance with legal and ethical constraints. Jun 06, 2019 Page 5 of 9 The World Bank Improving Administrative Records for SDGs implementation and evidence-based policymaking in Paraguay vii. Installed virtual community of policymakers from developing countries in the region, and beyond, for exchanging good practices in the production and communication of SDGs-related administrative records. D. Preliminary Description Activities/Components This project proposal has three main technical components: (i) Built foundations for Quality Administrative Records (AR) for SDGs; (ii) Training for Effective Use of AR for SDGs; and (iii) Open AR for SDGs toward Knowledge Sharing. Below we briefly discuss the main activities within each component. Public Disclosure Copy The first component will focus on the foundations for quality AR for SDGs. The main activities under this component include: (i.1) Conduct quality and completeness assessments of all administrative records used by the Ministry of Health and Social Welfare and the Ministry of Education and Sciences in both reporting SDGs outcomes and monitoring timely delivery of SDG outputs financed by the National Budget (NB), as featured in the Presidential and Citizen Scorecards. According to a 2017 review, in Paraguay there were 93 SDGs indicators that were either elaborated (47 SDGs indicators) or could be elaborated with existing information (46 SDGs indicators) (DGEEC 2017). There are 77 SDGs indicators that cannot be produced given the actual quality of the data, and 44 SDGs indicators that have no data available (Ibid). About 70% of the information sources to elaborate these 93 feasible SDGs indicators in Paraguay come from either AR or statistics derived mainly from AR (DGEEC 2017). Student registry containing enrollment, attendance, and promotion data; recipients of health services such as vaccinations, and civil registry data such as birth and death certificates are examples of quantitative AR that can be used to monitor and report SDGs, combined with population projections. Ensuring good quality of AR is crucial for a sound monitoring of health and education-related SDGs in Paraguay. In assessing the quality of AR for SDGs, the project will use established international methodologies such as those contained in the UK Statistics Authority (UKSA)’s Administrative Data Quality Assurance Toolkit (2015), UKSA’s Quality Assurance and Audit Arrangements for Administrative Data (2014), the IMF (with WB support) Data Quality Assurance Framework (2001), and other regional standards such as those from Mexico, Colombia, Uruguay, Ecuador and tools developed by the Group on AR of the Statistical Conference of the Americas / ECLAC. (i.2) Assess and propose improvements in the regulation of the production and use of SDGs-related administrative records at the Ministry of Health and Social Welfare and the Ministry of Education and Sciences. The production of quality AR for SDGs monitoring and reporting needs to be supported by adequate regulation. Several Public Institutions are not legally subjected to quality audits of their AR, and they do not organize their information in such a way that facilitates the collection of important AR. Additionally, personal identity protection is not adequately carried out in several institutions. According to Jun 06, 2019 Page 6 of 9 The World Bank Improving Administrative Records for SDGs implementation and evidence-based policymaking in Paraguay the Open Data Readiness Assessment (ODRA) of Paraguay, data anonymization procedures are seldom performed. AR quality standards need to be adequately stated in Paraguayan regulation. (i.3) Build capacity on good practices for collecting SDGs-related administrative records among public officials at the Paraguayan Ministry of Health and Social Welfare and Ministry of Education and Sciences. The project will deliver formal training, on-the-job training, and coaching on quality assurance principles and good practices in AR to key champions, namely the statistics, planning, and M&E units. These activities will build human capital to improve AR for SDGs in Paraguay. The second component will focus on Training for Effective Use of AR for SDGs. The main activities under this component include: Public Disclosure Copy (ii.1) Build capacity for evidence-based policymaking among high-level policymakers in health and education- related areas, with emphasis on the timely use of administrative records. Here we look at the all SDG indicators that can use the administrative sources then analyze their fit for SDG monitoring. ODRA states that “demand of data is low and there is no enough consciousness of the development potential of good and accessible data” and data demand is the lowest score among the eight dimensions. To increase demand for data, training modules on evidence-based policymaking for achieving SDGs and effective monitoring of SDGs will be delivered to high-level policy makers in health and education. This type of training will include evidence-based determinants of improved outcomes in SDGs-related areas and will communicate the importance of AR to monitor and evaluate progress on SDG outcomes and process. (ii.2) Conduct training to health and education-related policy analysts on modern statistical and machine learning tools for analyzing large and complex AR databases for monitoring and filling the data gaps for SDGs. Training will include topics such as, (a) open source data science tools such as R and Python for database management and Statistical modeling; (b) modern causal inferential methods, including regression discontinuity, matching techniques and other impact evaluation methods; (c) introduction to machine learning and image processing, and (d) other selected topics in statistics and machine learning. Training will be conducted with experts from SAMBa-U.of Bath (UK), the UK ONS, ID, and UNFPA, and will be directed to officials from the Ministry of Health and Social Welfare, the National Institute of Food and Nutrition, and the Ministry of Education and Sciences. Finally, the third component will focus on Open AR for SDGs toward Knowledge Sharing. The main activities under this component include: (iii.1) Build capacity among AR-producers for adequately disseminating health and education-related administrative records among the public, media, and academic community, in compliance with legal and ethical constraints. There are several challenges to make AR more user-friendly. For example, metadata to describe information is not usually published. Also, neither a basic vocabulary of reference nor geographical Jun 06, 2019 Page 7 of 9 The World Bank Improving Administrative Records for SDGs implementation and evidence-based policymaking in Paraguay territories for sub-national disaggregation are normalized across AR producers. Finally, even though access to information and data transparency has increased substantially over the last five years, information is not yet timely distributed to the media for their purposes according to the ODRA. There is an ample room for improvement in generating more active and user-friendly data dissemination strategies among the public, media, and academic community. (iii.2) Install a virtual community of policymakers from developing countries in the region, and beyond, for exchanging lessons learned and good practices in the production and use of SDGs-related AR. Use of AR for statistical production across the developing world is still limited due to insufficient institutional capacity and inconsistency issues between different AR. Videoconferences where good practices on AR production and use for SDGs are exchanged will be organized either bi-monthly or quarterly among interested public officials. These virtual exchanges will accelerate the diffusion of innovation among like-minded public officials in an area that is prioritized worldwide. We can facilitate contact with NSOs from other regions to participate Public Disclosure Copy in the exchanges of good practices on AR production and use for SDGs.As in other LAC Countries, the utilization of REDATAM® (https://redatam.org/redatam/es/) as a tool to disseminate the utilization of AR could be strengthened. Environmental and Social Standards Relevance E. Relevant Standards ESS Standards Relevance Assessment and Management of Environmental and Social ESS 1 Relevant Risks and Impacts ESS 10 Stakeholder Engagement and Information Disclosure Relevant ESS 2 Labor and Working Conditions Relevant Resource Efficiency and Pollution Prevention and ESS 3 Not Currently Relevant Management ESS 4 Community Health and Safety Not Currently Relevant Land Acquisition, Restrictions on Land Use and Involuntary ESS 5 Not Currently Relevant Resettlement Biodiversity Conservation and Sustainable Management of ESS 6 Not Currently Relevant Living Natural Resources Indigenous Peoples/Sub-Saharan African Historically ESS 7 Not Currently Relevant Underserved Traditional Local Communities ESS 8 Cultural Heritage Not Currently Relevant ESS 9 Financial Intermediaries Not Currently Relevant Legal Operational Policies Jun 06, 2019 Page 8 of 9 The World Bank Improving Administrative Records for SDGs implementation and evidence-based policymaking in Paraguay Safeguard Policies Triggered Explanation (Optional) Projects on International Waterways OP No 7.50 Projects in Disputed Areas OP 7.60 No Summary of Screening of Environmental and Social Risks and Impacts The activities that will be implemented under the Project are not expected to entail environmental or social risks or to have negative environmental or social impacts. CONTACT POINT Public Disclosure Copy World Bank Contact : Buyant Erdene Khaltarkhuu Title : Statistician Telephone No : 458-5498 Email : Contact : Mustafa Dinc Title : Senior Economist/Statistician Telephone No : 473-6233 Email : Borrower/Client/Recipient Borrower : Government of Paraguay Implementing Agencies Implementing Instituto Desarrollo Agency : Contact : Jose Molinas Title : Project manager Telephone No : 595984611777 Email : jmolinasvega@gmail.com FOR MORE INFORMATION CONTACT The World Bank 1818 H Street, NW Washington, D.C. 20433 Telephone: (202) 473-1000 Web: http://www.worldbank.org/projects Jun 06, 2019 Page 9 of 9