Global Monthly July 2018 • • • Percent, Percent, • 3m-on-3m saar 3m-on-3m saar 12 Goods trade 6 Industrial production (RHS) • 8 4 4 2 • 0 0 -4 -2 Jan-17 Jul-17 Jan-18 Apr-17 Oct-17 Apr-18 • • • • July 2018 Index, 50+=expansion, 3-month moving average 55 Manufacturing output 54 Export orders 53 52 51 50 Jan-18 Apr-18 May-18 Jun-18 Feb-18 Mar-18 US$, billions 40 30 20 10 0 Vegetables Animal prod. Chemicals Vehicles Electronics Prep. food Textiles Machinery Minerals Metals Non-met. Chem./min. Plastics/rub. Electronics Trans. equip. Plastics/rub. U.S. exports to China U.S. imports from China Number of new measures 30 2012-16 average 25 20 15 10 5 0 May-17 to Oct-17 to Oct-17 May-18 2 July 2018 Percent, year-on-year Percent, year-on-year Nominal wages 3.5 Real wages (RHS) 3 3.0 2 2.5 1 2.0 0 1.5 -1 1.0 -2 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jul-13 Jan-14 Jul-14 Jan-15 Jul-15 Jul-16 Jan-17 Jul-17 Jan-18 Jan-13 Jan-16 Index, Index, 100= 50+=expansion long-term average 62 Manufacturing PMI 116 Sentiment (RHS) 59 112 56 108 53 104 Jan-17 Mar-17 Jun-17 Jul-17 Oct-17 Nov-17 Dec-17 Mar-18 Apr-17 May-17 Aug-17 Jan-18 May-18 Jun-18 Feb-17 Apr-18 Sep-17 Feb-18 Index,100=Jan. 2, 2018 US$, billions Change in reserves (RHS) 104 Nominal exchange rate 30 20 102 10 100 0 -10 98 -20 96 -30 Apr-18 Jan-18 May-18 Jun-18 Jul-18 Feb-18 Mar-18 3 July 2018 Index, 50+=expansion Brazil 54 Russia 53 Indonesia 52 51 50 49 48 Apr-18 May-18 Jun-18 Jan-18 Feb-18 Mar-18 Percent, year-on-year 5 Jun-18 Jun-17 4 3 2 1 0 Commodity importers Commodity exporters Index, 100=Jan. 2, 2018 World EMDEs 110 105 100 95 90 85 80 Jun-18 Jul-18 Jan-18 Apr-18 May-18 Feb-18 Mar-18 4 July 2018 US$, trillions Households 250 Financial corporates Government 200 Non-financial corporates 150 100 50 0 Jan-00 Jul-01 Jan-03 Jul-04 Jan-09 Jul-10 Jan-12 Jul-13 Jan-15 Jul-16 Jan-18 Jan-06 Jul-07 Index, 100=Apr. 3, 2018 110 Argentina Turkey United States EMDEs 100 90 80 70 60 May-18 Jun-18 Apr-18 Index, 100=Jan. 2, 2018 Jul-18 130 120 110 100 90 Wheat Maize Soybeans 80 Jan-18 Apr-18 May-18 Jun-18 Jul-18 Feb-18 Mar-18 5 July 2018 Percent of GDP 100 80 60 40 Advanced-economy average EMDEs average 20 EMDEs: 1995-2008 average EMDEs: 2003-08 average 0 2009 2015 2006 2007 2008 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2016 2017 Percent of GDP 50 Average Median 1995-2008 average 45 2003-08 average 40 35 30 2006 2011 2015 2007 2008 2009 2010 2012 2013 2014 2016 2017 Percent 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 2010 2015 2010 2015 China Other EMDEs 6 July 2018 CV index 0.20 0.16 0.12 0.08 0.04 0.00 2010 2014 2017 Percent 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 Low debt High debt Distance to frontier score, best=100 80 60 Advanced-economy average 40 20 0 ECA LAC EAP SAR MNA SSA 7 July 2018 (Percent change, y/y) (Percent change y/y) Japan 6/21/18 CPI MAY 0.7 % 0.6% 0.6 % Canada 7/20/18 CPI JUN 2.2 % France 6/22/18 GDP Q1 2.2 % 2.2 % 2.8 % South Korea 7/25/18 GDP Q2 2.8% Germany 6/28/18 CPI JUN 2.1 % 2.1 % 2.2 % Spain 7/27/18 GDP Q2 2.9 % Italy 6/28/18 CPI JUN 1.4 % 1.0 % United States 7/27/18 GDP Q2 2.8 % Spain 6/28/18 CPI JUN 2.3 % 2.1 % Euro Area 7/31/18 GDP Q2 2.5% United States 6/28/18 GDP Q1 2.8 % 2.6% Italy 7/31/18 GDP Q2 1.4% UK 6/29/18 GDP Q1 1.2 % 1.2 % 1.3% Mexico 7/31/18 GDP Q2 1.3 % Indonesia 7/2/18 CPI JUN 3.1% 3.5 % 3.2% South Korea 7/31/18 CPI JUL 1.5 % South Korea 7/2/18 CPI JUN 1.5 % 1.8 % 1.5 % Indonesia 8/1/18 CPI JUL 3.1% Turkey 7/3/18 CPI JUN 15.4% 12.1% Brazil 8/2/18 IP JUN -6.7% Brazil 7/6/18 CPI JUN 4.4% 2.9% Turkey 8/3/18 CPI JUL 15.4% Mexico 7/9/18 CPI JUN 4.6% 4.5% Indonesia 8/6/18 GDP Q2 5.1% China 7/9/18 CPI JUN 1.9 % 1.8 % Germany 8/7/18 IP JUN 3.1 % Italy 7/10/18 IP JUN 2.1 % 2.8 % 1.9 % Brazil 8/8/18 CPI JUL 4.4% India 7/12/18 IP MAY 3.2 % 5.5 % 4.8% China 8/8/18 CPI JUL 1.6% France 7/12/18 CPI JUN 2.0 % 2.1 % 2.0 % Mexico 8/9/18 CPI JUL 4.6% China 7/15/18 GDP Q2 6.7 % 6.6 % 6.8 % France 8/10/18 IP JUN -0.9 % United States 7/17/18 IP JUN 3.6% 3.2% UK 8/10/18 GDP Q2 1.2 % Euro Area 7/18/18 CPI JUN 2.0 % 1.9 % Japan 8/13/18 GDP Q2 1.1% South Africa 7/18/18 CPI JUN 4.6 % 4.4 % Germany 8/14/18 GDP Q2 2.3 % UK 7/18/18 CPI JUN 2.4 % 2.6 % 2.4 % South Africa 8/15/18 CPI JUL 4.6 % 8 July 2018 (Percent change y/y, except quarterly data on industrial production, which are percent change q/q, annualized) 2.1 4.0 4.8 3.7 5.7 4.2 3.9 4.2 4.3 4.3 4.1 4.4 4.6 4.6 4.7 4.4 4.5 4.1 0.0 2.8 4.6 2.1 5.4 -0.2 3.0 3.1 3.1 3.0 3.1 3.5 3.6 2.7 3.0 3.2 2.5 2.7 4.2 5.2 5.1 5.2 6.1 8.7 5.0 5.3 5.6 5.7 5.1 5.4 5.5 6.6 6.5 5.7 6.6 5.6 0.5 2.6 2.4 4.8 1.2 7.3 1.5 2.4 3.7 3.7 3.1 2.6 2.3 3.8 3.1 4.8 6.2 2.9 5.3 6.0 5.9 5.3 7.4 9.1 5.9 6.2 6.1 6.2 5.7 6.2 6.4 7.4 7.4 5.9 6.7 6.3 5.8 6.2 5.8 4.9 5.8 11.3 6.5 5.9 5.8 6.4 5.8 5.7 5.8 7.4 7.1 6.3 7.6 7.2 4.6 3.9 0.4 8.2 0.2 23.6 0.5 3.2 4.7 5.5 3.0 3.2 3.1 8.3 6.5 8.4 11.1 9.8 3.4 5.9 8.7 5.8 6.3 7.1 5.6 6.7 7.7 7.8 6.0 5.8 6.4 7.7 7.5 5.8 5.9 5.3 -2.2 0.7 -1.0 3.6 2.8 3.1 0.7 1.2 1.4 0.8 1.7 1.5 2.1 1.5 1.9 3.0 4.3 -1.5 -1.1 5.4 -1.8 26.7 0.1 -8.7 2.8 15.8 7.7 2.2 6.1 7.0 8.7 2.2 2.6 5.0 2.5 2.1 5.3 4.7 3.2 6.7 13.7 4.2 0.1 4.0 6.5 4.7 3.8 8.8 7.6 8.1 7.4 5.1 5.2 3.7 1.0 -0.2 3.0 3.7 8.0 -8.5 -2.8 -0.7 1.1 -0.9 1.8 2.5 3.4 1.6 1.0 1.4 -1.3 1.6 1.5 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.3 2.3 2.0 2.1 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.4 2.3 2.4 2.3 2.4 2.1 2.1 0.3 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.3 1.2 1.4 1.4 1.5 1.4 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.4 1.4 1.6 1.9 2.7 3.2 3.1 2.9 2.8 3.0 2.8 2.6 3.1 3.2 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 2.7 2.6 2.8 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.3 2.8 2.9 3.1 3.1 3.4 3.3 3.3 3.0 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.7 2.4 2.4 1.3 2.9 2.9 2.7 2.8 3.7 2.6 2.4 2.6 3.0 2.8 2.9 3.0 3.7 3.5 3.1 3.4 3.2 2.1 2.9 2.7 1.9 2.7 2.5 2.2 2.1 2.5 2.5 2.8 2.6 2.5 2.6 2.7 2.5 2.3 2.6 0.4 2.4 2.3 2.7 2.8 2.7 2.2 2.5 2.7 2.8 2.6 2.8 2.8 2.5 2.7 2.5 2.2 2.1 2.4 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.5 2.9 2.2 2.3 2.4 2.6 2.3 2.5 2.6 2.9 2.9 3.1 2.8 3.1 2.1 1.6 1.5 1.1 2.2 2.8 1.0 1.2 1.1 1.6 2.1 1.7 1.9 2.9 2.9 2.6 2.6 3.1 4.4 3.8 4.5 3.4 3.7 4.2 3.9 3.1 3.5 3.5 3.6 3.8 4.3 4.4 4.1 3.8 4.1 4.9 5.3 5.7 5.8 5.5 4.7 3.5 6.2 5.6 5.5 5.4 5.2 4.6 4.6 4.3 3.3 3.2 3.3 3.3 (Percent change y/y, except quarterly trade data, which are percent change q/q, annualized, and international reserves data, which are percent change over the previous period) -3.0 10.2 3.6 14.1 15.9 24.6 6.7 10.2 11.0 11.0 12.4 13.2 11.7 17.0 16.9 9.2 16.3 10.7 -0.8 9.5 2.8 17.0 12.5 22.0 6.4 9.9 10.9 10.9 11.9 13.0 11.4 17.4 12.0 10.8 16.4 9.2 -6.4 11.5 4.9 8.9 22.3 29.3 7.2 10.9 11.3 11.3 13.3 13.7 12.3 16.1 26.0 6.5 16.4 13.6 -8.8 17.6 -8.7 18.3 28.1 32.1 9.8 17.3 16.7 16.7 21.0 15.5 14.4 20.8 15.2 13.0 23.9 15.6 -4.5 9.2 11.0 5.3 20.0 28.1 6.2 8.5 9.2 9.2 10.3 13.0 11.4 14.3 30.5 3.8 13.4 12.6 -6.1 9.5 11.4 5.5 17.4 29.3 5.2 10.4 8.1 9.8 10.0 12.8 10.9 14.0 33.3 1.0 12.6 12.0 -6.1 16.5 0.0 14.6 33.1 40.4 11.1 11.3 20.3 16.5 22.3 19.6 16.3 26.8 21.2 15.3 28.0 19.7 -2.3 11.9 -0.1 7.4 16.5 23.7 12.5 10.6 11.8 10.3 15.6 9.4 8.6 12.0 11.9 10.7 14.2 7.2 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 0.6 5.6 -7.3 8.2 26.6 4.7 -2.7 11.7 9.8 4.6 4.1 12.1 11.5 6.9 9.9 5.4 6.7 18.3 -13.1 15.2 -9.1 11.0 30.1 31.1 11.3 14.9 16.5 8.5 17.5 15.7 16.9 14.3 15.6 13.7 - - -5.3 12.1 14.4 0.7 32.3 16.8 7.3 21.5 16.2 5.8 18.2 13.2 19.5 16.4 21.4 9.1 25.0 4.4 -3.4 9.1 5.8 13.4 19.0 23.5 5.2 10.7 9.0 9.0 14.6 14.1 13.9 18.6 15.3 11.9 18.3 9.9 -6.4 13.8 19.3 -5.5 39.9 13.5 8.4 27.7 20.5 3.9 20.2 12.7 22.6 15.2 24.7 7.6 28.7 1.8 -7.3 13.2 27.3 -10.2 47.1 3.7 7.2 31.4 22.5 -0.2 21.2 11.3 25.9 10.2 29.4 6.2 32.0 - -3.0 16.1 -4.3 12.5 18.2 52.7 12.6 15.7 14.3 17.6 16.6 17.7 12.3 32.5 11.1 11.9 18.3 17.5 -3.6 17.4 -11.6 14.1 16.8 70.5 13.7 15.8 13.9 19.1 17.9 18.6 9.7 37.8 9.3 12.0 21.6 20.8 -1.2 18.4 15.7 19.4 17.8 39.5 14.0 27.0 17.1 20.0 21.2 23.4 22.4 29.8 21.4 17.2 18.5 10.7 -7.3 8.3 -8.0 10.1 19.0 24.3 6.2 7.5 9.3 5.0 16.3 9.2 6.9 14.0 14.2 4.1 21.1 12.1 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -5.4 22.2 9.1 -6.8 33.5 25.5 12.1 20.5 21.0 18.5 10.9 18.8 19.0 24.3 11.9 7.5 6.5 16.1 -13.7 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -2.0 7.2 2.1 1.7 1.2 1.4 0.5 0.8 0.6 0.3 0.0 0.5 0.7 1.4 -0.5 0.5 -0.5 -0.5 3.2 10.0 2.9 1.7 1.1 1.3 0.5 0.9 0.5 0.3 -0.3 0.7 0.8 1.3 -0.5 0.5 -1.0 -0.2 -5.3 5.3 1.5 1.7 1.3 1.4 0.4 0.7 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.4 0.7 1.4 -0.5 0.5 -0.2 -0.7 -4.5 3.5 0.5 0.8 1.2 2.1 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.6 0.3 0.3 1.4 -0.3 1.0 - - -5.7 6.1 2.0 2.2 1.3 1.1 0.6 0.9 0.8 0.5 0.1 0.4 0.8 1.5 -0.6 0.3 -0.6 -0.8 -7.3 5.6 1.7 2.1 1.3 0.6 0.1 0.9 0.6 0.6 0.0 0.4 0.9 1.1 -0.8 0.4 -0.5 -0.5 3.4 10.2 3.2 3.1 0.9 4.3 2.0 1.1 1.6 0.3 0.2 1.0 -0.3 3.5 0.2 0.6 -0.5 -1.2 1.4 2.1 1.7 0.9 -0.9 1.8 0.8 0.6 0.3 -0.1 0.5 -0.4 -0.9 1.5 0.0 0.3 -0.3 -0.4 -10.7 - -1.8 - - - -0.4 -0.9 -0.2 - - - - - - - - - 3.6 11.8 4.5 2.5 2.3 2.5 1.7 1.1 1.3 0.1 -0.1 0.2 2.1 2.4 -0.2 0.3 -0.2 -2.5 -4.9 11.0 0.7 0.5 6.2 9.4 -1.5 2.4 -1.6 -0.3 1.5 0.4 4.2 2.4 0.9 5.8 - - 9 July 2018 (Percent change y/y, except quarterly trade data, which are percent change q/q, annualized, and international reserves data, which are percent change over the previous period) 0.39 0.97 1.13 1.17 1.40 1.67 1.13 1.13 1.13 1.13 1.13 1.27 1.38 1.38 1.45 1.63 1.63 1.77 1.88 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.74 1.26 1.32 1.47 1.93 2.34 1.31 1.31 1.32 1.36 1.43 1.61 1.73 1.87 2.18 2.35 2.34 2.33 2.35 -0.26 -0.33 -0.33 -0.33 -0.33 -0.33 -0.33 -0.33 -0.33 -0.33 -0.33 -0.33 -0.33 -0.33 -0.33 -0.33 -0.33 -0.32 -0.32 1.84 2.33 2.24 2.37 2.76 2.92 2.32 2.21 2.20 2.36 2.35 2.41 2.58 2.86 2.84 2.87 2.97 2.91 2.88 0.11 0.37 0.46 0.38 0.57 0.42 0.54 0.42 0.41 0.43 0.37 0.36 0.50 0.67 0.54 0.48 0.46 0.33 0.25 410 325 322 313 309 351 327 325 314 306 320 312 299 309 319 322 353 377 362 221 164 161 151 157 185 163 163 157 148 153 151 146 156 168 171 186 197 189 302 243 234 233 221 275 243 234 224 226 244 229 212 217 234 246 277 301 292 537 429 428 416 418 455 435 435 416 407 422 419 410 420 423 422 459 486 465 517 385 383 400 367 429 382 382 384 381 421 398 359 366 374 385 432 472 447 518 376 380 350 320 385 394 378 367 360 359 332 305 317 337 342 379 436 417 424 508 487 508 500 505 478 478 487 497 505 508 502 517 500 510 509 505 516 1761 2086 2001 2086 2042 2089 1961 1960 2001 2037 2077 2086 2053 2113 2042 2087 2093 2089 2138 2258 2668 2519 2668 2590 2718 2470 2472 2519 2575 2648 2668 2631 2711 2590 2648 2729 2718 2816 1475 1558 1571 1558 1493 1533 1526 1512 1571 1600 1563 1558 1518 1522 1493 1556 1545 1533 1553 19302 22530 20356 22530 21203 22305 19974 19720 20356 22198 22730 22530 21650 21794 21203 22488 22095 22305 22794 861 1139 1082 1139 1167 1070 1066 1088 1082 1119 1121 1139 1158 1202 1167 1164 1121 1070 1071 419 577 543 577 589 552 538 544 543 571 572 577 584 603 589 587 582 552 547 295 341 331 341 350 312 315 336 331 330 330 341 354 370 350 335 316 312 311 248 275 268 275 280 253 261 274 268 268 265 275 285 295 280 271 257 253 255 2341 2811 2917 2811 3008 2477 2752 2873 2917 2809 2719 2811 2945 3095 3008 2988 2561 2477 2612 0.90 0.89 0.85 0.85 0.81 0.84 0.87 0.85 0.84 0.85 0.85 0.84 0.82 0.81 0.81 0.81 0.85 0.86 0.86 108.80 112.11 110.96 112.75 107.94 109.16 112.31 109.78 110.80 112.93 112.81 112.51 109.83 107.96 106.02 107.62 109.72 110.13 112.87 3.49 3.19 3.16 3.24 3.24 3.61 3.20 3.15 3.13 3.19 3.26 3.28 3.19 3.25 3.28 3.41 3.64 3.79 3.84 6.65 6.76 6.67 6.61 6.35 6.38 6.77 6.67 6.57 6.62 6.62 6.59 6.41 6.32 6.32 6.30 6.37 6.47 6.72 10.12 17.85 17.77 17.71 17.68 17.80 17.92 17.75 17.65 17.64 17.68 17.81 17.74 17.67 17.63 17.68 17.83 17.88 17.90 67.19 65.11 64.29 64.71 64.40 66.99 64.44 63.97 64.46 65.07 64.85 64.20 63.72 64.44 65.06 65.69 67.49 67.79 68.62 67.06 58.31 58.93 58.47 56.96 62.03 59.72 59.42 57.66 57.76 58.97 58.70 56.93 56.81 57.15 61.01 62.28 62.81 63.00 14.71 13.31 13.19 13.62 11.93 12.65 13.15 13.25 13.17 13.71 14.06 13.11 12.15 11.82 11.84 12.10 12.52 13.33 13.27 119.7 119.6 116.6 117.5 114.1 116.6 117.9 116.5 115.5 117.5 117.7 117.4 114.7 113.7 113.9 113.9 117.0 118.9 119.8 55 68 65 75 82 92 62 65 68 71 76 78 85 81 81 88 94 95 95 80 84 84 85 88 89 83 84 85 85 85 85 87 88 88 90 90 88 88 88 87 86 86 89 91 88 85 86 86 86 85 88 89 90 92 92 89 89 64 79 81 84 88 88 76 83 84 84 84 85 89 89 85 87 88 88 79 43 53 50 59 64 71 48 50 53 55 60 61 66 63 64 69 73 72 70 1249 1258 1278 1275 1329 1307 1237 1283 1314 1280 1282 1264 1331 1331 1325 1335 1303 1282 1282 676 1152 1138 1509 1171 1256 906 1144 1363 1484 1455 1589 1234 1130 1149 1126 1289 1352 1721 10