* : Julian A. Lampietti (jlampietti@worldbank.org), Ellen Hamilton (ehamilton@worldbank.org), Hernan M. Gonzalez (hgonzalez@worldbank.org), Margaret Wilson (mwilson3@worldbank.org), Sergo Vashakmadze (svashakmadze@worldbank.org), and Taras Pushak (tpushak@worldbank.org) - 1 - ARI ­ Acute Respiratory Infections ­ GDP ­ Gross Domestic Product ­ ­ GNERC ­ Georgian National Energy Regulatory Commission ­ GUDC ­ Georgian United Distribution Company ­ GWEM ­ Georgian Wholesale Electricity Market ­ HBS ­ Household Budget Survey ­ kWh ­ Kilowatt Hour ­ - LPG ­ Liquid Propane Gas ­ STC ­ Save the Children ­ " " VAT ­ Value Added Tax ­ WHAP ­ Winter Heat Assistance Program ­ 2002 .: US $1 = 2.15 - 2 - , - , , . , , ; . , , . , - , . , , . , . , , : , . ; , , , , . , , - 3 - - , . . , . , . , , , , . , . , , . - 4 - , 2002 . 2003 ., - - ( , ECCU3). -. , . , . , " " . , , 2003 ., . , . ( , ECSSD), : (ECSIE), (), (), (ECSPE) (). (ENV) (SDV). (ECSIE), (ECSIE), (ECSHD) (ECSPE). - 5 - , , , - . , . , , . - . , , , , . , . , , . , . , . , , . , - , /, . 125 , . , ( - ). , ( 150 ) . . , . 135%. , , , ; . , , , . , , . , . , - 6 - . ( , ), . , , , . , , . . , , , , , . , . , , , . . , . . , , , . - 7 - ................................................................................................................................... 3 ...................................................................................................................................... 4 ............................................................................................................................................ 5 ............................................................................................................................................ 6 ............................................................................................................................ 10 ....................................................................................... 10 .................................. 11 .............................................................................. 12 .......................................................................................... 13 .......................................................................................... 13 .................................................................................................... 15 ..................................................................... 18 ...................................... 18 ................................................................................. 19 ­ ..................................... 21 .............................................................................................. 23 ..................................................................................................................................... 25 ............................. 26 ....................................................................................... 26 ......................................................................................................................................... 29 .................................................................................................................................. 29 ......................................................................................................................... 29 ........................................ 30 ...................................................................................................... 31 ..................................................................................................................................... 32 ................................................................. 33 ........................................................ 33 .......................................................... 34 ....................................................................... 35 ..................................................................................................................................... 39 ........................................................................................................................... 41 A. ................ 42 . ........... 43 . ..................................................... 44 . 1. .................... 11 . 2. ....................................................... 12 . 3. ................................................... 14 . 4. , /. ............................................. 17 . 5. .......... 19 . 6. ­ ................................ 20 . 7. ­ ................................. 20 . 8. ­ ...................................... 22 . 9. ­ , 2002 ............................................. 23 . 10. ­ ........ 24 . 11. ( 2002 .)............... 25 - 8 - . 12. ­ ....................................................................................................... 31 . 13. ­ .............................................. 32 . 14. (/) - ................... 37 1. ­ ........... 28 2. 2001-2003 . ( . )..................................................................................................................................... 34 3. ­ ( . )..................... 35 4. ­ ......................................... 36 5. ­ ............................. 36 6. - ­ ............................ 37 T .1. ............................................................ 42 .1. , ................................................................................................ 45 .2. .......................................................................................... 45 .3. ..................................................................... 46 .4. ...................................................... 47 .5. ............................... 47 - 9 - , , . , "" , , , . , , , , . , , , . , , . , , , . , (, ), , , . , . , . - , . , , . , . , . , . , , , , , . : - 10 - (), 1996 . 1; , " " 2002 .2; , 2000-2002 . , . . , . ( ) , , , , 2000 2001 . (.1). 3 ( , ). , , , . . 1. 20 16 12 () 8 4 ( ) C 0 .2000 2000 .2000 .2001 2001 .2001 .2002 2002 . 2002 : , . 1 " : 2000 ." , 2001 . 2 USAID. : . 3 , , . , ; . - 11 - 1990-94 . , 70%. , . , 2001 . 3,2 . . , 5,4% 2002 . 4 , , , . , .5 1996 . , , ; . 1996 . 2002 . 4 %, 18% 2001 . 2002 . 2001 2002 . , . , ( ) . 2% 1996 2002 ., (.2). ( ) 8% 10% . . 2. 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% II IV II III IV II III IV II III IV II III IV II III IV II III IV 1996-I 1997-I 1998-I 1999-I 2000-I 2001-I 2002-I : . 4 No. 19348-GE, " ", 1999, No. 22350-GE, " ", 2002. 5 , . No. 22350-GE ". ", 2002 , . 58, 35. . Ravallion (2001), " : ?" ( No.2665). - 12 - . 1996-2002 . 2%, 20%. 17% (1997-2001 .), 28% 2002 . 7% . - . 90- . , 98% . , . . . 2001 . , 2001 ., . ; 4,5 17 .6 , 2001 2002 . 7,8 , , . , .9 -- , . , 1998 . ( 3).10 , - , 6 , , 2002. 7 39 . 2000 . 164 . 2003 . 300 . 8 , . , 1998 2000 ., 2000-2001 . 9 , . , . , , , . 10 . " : ." No. 393. Washington, D.C. 1998. . 29-30. - 13 - . , , . "" , ( ). , . , , . ( , ); (). ( ), , , . 1999 . (), . . 3. 0.16 0.12 /0.08 0.04 0 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 : ( ) . 1998 . , - .11 , , , - , . , 11 . - 14 - , 1998 . ; .12 25 . 13 2000 . . 2002 . 14 (), . ; (USAID), . ( ) ( , , ). , . , , , , . , . . .15 1997 . 12 8 ( 5 % ) . 13 I II. 14 , . 15 , , , . 1998 . , , , . 2002 . (13.7 /), , 10% , 12.4 /. 30 2002 . . , 10% ( , 30%). , - 15 - ( ).16 0,27 /3. 0,30 /3 . , ( ) 215 (100 . 2002 .), 17 6,50 . 18 , . , . , , 1999 ., , , , 10 . 22 . . .19 , , , , , , (.4). . , , , , , , . , , , . . , . 16 . 4 , , . 17 , . 18 ( US$60 1,000 3), . / , . 19 , . , , . (. ). , . - 16 - . 4. , /. 80 70 60 50 (1997)40 30 () 20 () 10 0 -97 -97 -97 -98 -98 -99 -99 -99 -00 -00 -01 -01-02 -02 -02 : . , . ( , ), , , , . , , . " " , , , , 5 75%. , . , 2002 . 22 . . , 20%, 15 /. , , , . , , , . - 17 - , , ( ) , , , . , «« , . , 1996 . , , 8%.20 . , , ( 6,4 8,4%), , ( ) (.5). 2001 . 2002 . . , , . , . 2001 . 94 % 25% 7% 21. 20 134 . 21, , . ( 4 ). , . - 18 - . 5. 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 : . , ( ). , ; , . , 1997 ., , 1999 . . 1997 ., ( ). . , , . , , , , . , - ( ), , . 22, , 200 . /; 55 ./ (. 6). 22 (. ) / , , (. ). - 19 - . 6. ­ 350 300 250 .200 150 100 50 0 II IV II III IV II III IV II III IV II III IV II III IV II 1996-I 1997-I 1998-I 1999-I 2000-I 2001-I 2002-I : . , , (.7). 45 51% 1996-2002 . ( 3% 7% ). , () . , 2 20% 1999 . . 7. ­ 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 : . , , , . , , - 20 - . , , , . , , , . . , , , . . , , , . , , .23 , , , , . , , . , , , . ­ . , . 125 (. 8), 113 .24 , , ( ), . . -, 23 - , 60- 70 , 2-3 . 24 2000 ., . , 1999 . , . , . . - , . - 21 - . 125 . , .25 -, , , , , . . 8. ­ 200 150 /- 100 50 ti 0 -00 -00 -00 -01 -01 -01 -02 -02 -02 : . , , . . , , , ; , . , 875 1,750 (. 9). , 1,500 . 25 ( 5-15 ) 95 /, 3 30 /. - 22 - . 9. ­ , 2002 . 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% 125 375 625 875 1125 1375 1625 1875 2125 2375 2625 2875 3125 3375 3625 3875 / : . , , , ( ). , , , . , . . (, ) ( ). , (. 10) . . ( , ) , , (. ). , .26 26 2002 . 53 % , , 76 % , . , , , , . - 23 - . 10. ­ 100% 90% 80% 70% (, 60% , ) 50% 40% 30% (, 20% ) 10% 0% II III IV II III IV II III IV II III IV II III IV II III IV 1997-I 1998-I 1999-I 2000-I 2001-I 2002-I : . . , 2001 . 80% . . 11 . . , . , , , , ( ), . , , , , , , . - 24 - . 11. ( 2002 .) 20 18 - 1 2 16 i 2 14 . 12 - 1 10 / - 8 6 4 2 0 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 . / : " ". , , . , . . . . , , . 125 , . , . ( 150 /) . - 25 - .27 , , , 28 , , . , , , , , . , . , . , , .29 ( ) , . , . , , , , , . . , , , . 2002 . . 2000-2002 . 27 , , , . ; , , , 2002 . 81%, 55% 93% , . , . , , 2002 . 25%. 28 40% , 2002 . 29 . - 26 - 91%, 41% 2001-2002 .30 , , . . , 44 % 2000 . 86% 2002 . 100% , . , , . , , (. 1).31 30 1,349 , . - 300 . . , , . 31 . - 27 - 1. ­ 2000 2001 2002 `01 - `00 `02 - `01 ­ . 2.79 2.38 1.20 -15% -6% 3.23 2.76 1.29 -14% -20% ­ . 86% 86% 93% 0 7 (/ ) 0.093 0.100 0.124 8% 24% 38% 69% 76% 32 7 ­ . 2.35 2.31 2.49 -2% 24% ­. 217 232 309 7% 33% ­ . 96 186 266 93% 44% ­ . 35 44 55 25% 26% 29 37 47 28% 27% 6 7 8 11% 21% ­ . 61 142 211 132% 49% 44% 80% 86% 36 6 : , . 2002 . . = : . . ( ), , ( , ) . 2001 . . , , , . , , , , . , . , , , , . - 28 - . . . (. . 1) , . 2001 2002 . 44%, 24%. 91% 8%. . 29 % 2000 . 18% 2001 32 2002 . 3 6%. , , ( , ). . , . , , , , . , , , , . , , , , , . , , " , ." , , , , 32 . . . 2000 . 850 , 2001 2002 . 1000 ; 2003 . 480 . , . . . - 29 - . , . , . , - . , , , ; -, , . , , . - - , , , . . 33 , . (. 12). .34 . , , ( ) ( ). , . , . , , , , ( , " "), , , , , . , . , 10% 33 , , . 34 , , . - 30 - - . , ( ) , . , , . , , , . . 12. ­ 175% 150% 125% 100% 75% 50% 25% 0% -00 -00 -00 -00 -01 -01 -01 -01 -02 -02 -02 -02 : AEC-. , . , (.13). , , « «. , . - 31 - . 13. ­ 175% 150% 125% 100% 75% 50% 25% 0% -00 -00 -00 -00 -00 -00 -01 -01 -01 -01 -01 -01 -02 -02 -02 -02 -02 -02 : AEC-. , . 135 %. , , . , , , . , , , . - 32 - - . . , , . . . , , , , . , . , . , 1994 . , . 1995 2000 . ( ) 12% 19%. , , , . , 1991 1999 . , . 287 . , , , 354 . . , (, , KfW, ) 202 . .35 , , 2001 2003 . 210 . ( 2). , , . - , . , 35 . - 33 - , . 2002 . ( ) 444 . . 43 . 2001 . 98 . 2003 ., 7,3% (. 2). (22 . ) , . . 2. 2001-2003 . ( . ) 2001 2002 2003 () 3,000 13,000 36,500 , . 6,555 13,646 14,016 , (, ) 21,924 27,346 29,348 , 6,000 10,160 4,500 2,800 3,000 11,500 42,280 69,154 97,867 906,314 1,031,259 1,343,700 % 4.7 6.7 7.3 - 17,279 34,325 46,500 : . , . 2001 2003 . . . -, . -, , . -, . , . 1999 . , 10 . 2002 . ( 3). 10 , - 34 - . 1999 . . 3. ­ ( . ) 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 50 15 340 842 10,113 495 0 0 0 0 545 15 340 842 10,113 107,916 123,989 127,190 154,760 182,686 % 0.5% 0.0% 0.3% 0.5% 5.5% : . . 1996 . 10 . , 1998 . 170 . , , , , .36 , . . 35 70 ( 240 120 ). ( ) . 850 3 .37 , - - .38 ( ). , ( ) (.4). , , . 36 . , ( ). 37 , . 38 , . , , . 2000 . 850 , 2001 2002 . 1000 . 2003 . 480 . . - 35 - 2000 2001 . . 4. ­ , - - 2000 12% 12% 15% 13% 13% 2001 10% 16% 18% 11% 10% , 2000 25% 16% 18% 17% 10% 2001 27% 23% 21% 19% 14% : . , , . 27-32% ( 5), 54- 64% . , , , . , ( ) , . 5. ­ () % , % , () () 2000 1851 28% 1440 54% 2001 1659 32% 1461 64% 2002 1948 27% 1691 56% : . (, ). , , , , (. 14). , 845 1750 - 36 - 73 145 . , , , . . 14. (/) - 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% 125 375 625 875 1125 1375 1625 1875 2125 2375 2625 2875 3125 3375 3625 3875 / : . (. 6). . , . . - ( ) . 6. - ­ - 37 - - - ( %) : 10 16 18 11 10 27 23 21 19 14 (a) 44 38 40 42 39 ­ (b) 40 35 43 34 35 (/) 610 561 548 646 535 1000 1000 1000 1000 1000 (a) 407 411 497 476 324 ­ (b) 398 384 479 382 287 - (/) 76 70 68 80 66 124 124 124 124 124 (a 50 51 62 59 40 ­ (b) 49 48 59 47 36 : (a) , 875 1750 /. , 125 . 0.124 /. (b) , (a), , , . : . , . -, , . , , , 75 125 . . . -, , ; ( ) (, , , , ). -, . , . , . , . , , - 38 - , . . (, , , ) . . ( , ). , ( , ) , . (, , ), . . , , , , , , "". , , , . . , , , . , , , , . , , , , , . , . , , , . - 39 - - . - 40 - - 41 - A. . , . , , , , . , , . , , . , . , . . .1. 2002 . ; . ( 3) ( 4) 106, . . , , . 6 . . , , , , . 7 , , , . T .1. , )a(20 . (c)) (d) (b) ) .] ( . ) . . 02. [../ ( ( [1] [2] [3] [4] [5]=10-6[3]/[4] [6] [7]=[5]*[6] [8] 3 0.270 3,412 7.65 70% 10.93 $ 5.08 0.137 35,300 40.15 90% 44.61 $ 20.75 0.790 32,934 24.04 40% 60.09 $ 27.95 1.400 42,854 32.67 70% 46.67 $ 21.71 7,165,200 3 22.563 3.15 20% 15.74 $ 7.32 a. ( . ), . USAID/Save the Children. b. . c. . d. O 2002 .: 1 . = 2.15 . : . - 42 - . (, ) , . " " . , - . . , . · · · , · , · 60 · , · · , · , · , 18 · , 18 · , 60 · 60 , ( 1 ). (, , ). - 43 - . , , , . 1 , . 2000-2001 . 8% , 39 32 %, 7%, 44%. , ( ), , , . 2000 . , , , . . , , . , . . , . . (, ) . , . , 2001 . - . . . , , . , . , , , . 15 , . , 39 , . , . : , , . , -. ( ) . - 44 - , . - . , . , , . (. 1); , , . . .1. , - - - 2000-I 13.9 5.3 9.6 4.5 7.1 2.3 2000-II 13.9 4.6 11.1 4.8 7.4 3.1 2000-III 23.1 5.9 10.9 4.6 9.4 3.0 2000-IV 20.7 6.6 9.9 5.3 9.6 3.6 2001-I 11.4 7.9 6.9 4.4 4.3 2.0 2001-II 12.3 8.3 7.5 5.6 6.9 3.4 2001-III 22.6 9.4 9.6 4.8 9.1 4.0 2001-IV 23.5 14.2 12.7 5.8 8.6 4.0 : . , . , , . , - . 2001 ., ( .2): .2. ln R = 0 + 1 ln Coll + 2 ln P + 3 Temp + 4 Winter01 + 5 ln Subsidy + 1 [1] ln Coll = 0 + 0 enf + 1 enf2 + 2 quality + 2 [2] - ln R - ln Coll - ln P - Temp - Winter01 - 1, 2001 ln Subsidy - enf - enf2 - quality - i - - 45 - STATA (. .3). . , 36 . , (R2 F- ). , , . 1 2, . , OLS 1.40 .3. Instrumental variables (2SLS) regression Source | SS df MS Number of obs = 36 -------------+------------------------------ F( 5, 30) = 82.64 Model | 7.01960499 5 1.403921 Prob > F = 0.0000 Residual | .517717153 30 .017257238 R-squared = 0.9313 -------------+------------------------------ Adj R-squared = 0.9199 Total | 7.53732214 35 .215352061 Root MSE = .13137 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ln Revenue | Coef. Std. Err. t P>|t| [95% Conf. Interval] -------------+---------------------------------------------------------------- ln Coll | .7167994 .0784598 9.14 0.000 .5565631 .8770357 ln P | .656545 .3602119 1.82 0.078 -.079106 1.392196 Temp_avg | -.0030601 .0031612 -0.97 0.341 -.0095162 .0033959 Winter01 | -.1818197 .0964468 -1.89 0.069 -.3787904 .015151 ln Subsidy | .2666331 .0260078 10.25 0.000 .2135182 .3197481 Constant | 9.417039 1.025128 9.19 0.000 7.323448 11.51063 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ () . reg lncoll enf enf2 quality Source | SS df MS Number of obs = 36 -------------+------------------------------ F( 3, 32) = 93.61 Model | 7.84100824 3 2.61366941 Prob > F = 0.0000 Residual | .89351395 32 .027922311 R-squared = 0.8977 -------------+------------------------------ Adj R-squared = 0.8881 Total | 8.73452219 35 .249557777 Root MSE = .1671 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ lncoll | Coef. Std. Err. t P>|t| [95% Conf. Interval] -------------+---------------------------------------------------------------- enf | 2.571911 .5743944 4.48 0.000 1.401907 3.741914 enf2 | -1.213233 .7249909 -1.67 0.104 -2.689991 .2635254 quality | .1547864 .2499061 0.62 0.540 -.3542556 .6638284 _cons | -1.766414 .2681718 -6.59 0.000 -2.312662 -1.220165 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 402 6.73. , OLS 1 , 1 . Test: Ho: difference in coefficients not systematic chi2( 1) = (b-B)'[(V_b-V_B)^(-1)](b-B) = 6.73 Prob>chi2 = 0.0095 - 46 - , , , . . 1% 0.7168 % 1% 0.6565%. . , 1% 0.2555 %. , , , , , . 1 2. 3. . , . .4. .4. ln R ln R * lnColl enf = lnColl enf =1( 0 + 2 1 enf ) = 0.7168 * (2.5719- 2 * 1.2132 * 0.4968) = 0.9795 . .5. 0.4866 95% . , . , , (. . .3) , , . .5. ln R ln R enf lnenf = enf = 0.9795 * 0.4968 = 0.4866 - 47 -