ECONOMIC IMPACTS OF CHILD MARRIAGE: EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT BRIEF Page 1 · ECONOMIC IMPACTS OF CHILD MARRIAGE: EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT BRIEF June 2017 ECONOMIC IMPACTS OF CHILD MARRIAGE: EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT BRIEF OVERVIEW Each day, more than 41,000 girls worldwide are married while still children, often before they may be physically and emotionally ready to become wives and mothers. Child marriage, defined as marriage or a union taking place before the age of 18, endangers the life trajectories of these girls in numerous ways. Child brides are at greater risk of experiencing a range of poor health outcomes, having children at younger ages, having more children over their lifetime, dropping out of school, earning less over their lifetimes and living in poverty than their peers who marry at later ages. Child brides may also be more likely to experience intimate partner violence, have restricted physical mobility, and limited decision-making ability. Most fundamentally, these girls may be disempowered in ways that deprive them of their basic rights to health, education, equality, non-discrimination, and to live free from violence and exploitation, which continue to affect them into adulthood. These dynamics affect not only the girls themselves, but their children, households, communities and societies, limiting their ability to reach their full social and economic potential. While child marriage is widely considered a human rights issue closely connected to gender inequality,1 the significance of the practice’s impacts at both the individual and societal levels suggests that ending child marriage may play an important role in alleviating poverty and in promoting economic development. Ending child marriage can improve health at the individual and population levels, increase productivity and enhance the opportunity to realize the gains in a country’s economic growth that can result from declining birth rates and a shifting population age structure, commonly referred to as the ‘demographic dividend.’ To date, however, there has been relatively little in the way of rigorous assessment of the economic impacts of child marriage or how much child marriage may “cost” countries and societies. To address this gap, the World Bank and the International Center for Research on Women (ICRW) collaborated on an extensive and innovative research project to assess the impacts of child marriage on a range of development outcomes, and to understand the economic costs associated with these impacts across countries. By establishing the effects that child marriage has on economic outcomes, the research project aimed to catalyze more effective and evidence-based action to prevent it. The conceptual framework that guided our work follows: 1 As enshrined in UN General Assembly Resolution 71/175 (December, 2016), “child, early and forced marriage is a harmful practice that violates, abuses or impairs human rights.” Page 1 · ECONOMIC IMPACTS OF CHILD MARRIAGE: EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT BRIEF June 2017 Domains of Impact Aggregate Measures Development Of Impacts And Costs Outcomes Fertility and population growth CHILD MARRIAGE Earnings, productivity & Health, nutrition and violence consumption per capita Multiple pathways Educational attainment and learning and intergenerational Perpetuation Of Extreme effects through which Poverty And Private impacts are observed & public Inequality Participation in the labor force expenditures and type of work Participation, decision-making and investments Non-monetary and social costs In this brief, we summarize results from an analysis of the impacts of child marriage on educational attainment for girls and their children and document the extent to which keeping girls in school could help end child marriage. This brief and What Do We Mean selected other publications from the study can be found at: www.costsofchildmarriage.org  by Impacts and Associated Costs? The aim of the study is to estimate CHILD MARRIAGE AND the impacts of child marriage on EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT development outcomes and the economic costs associated with some of these impacts. The term “impact” The evidence base has long demonstrated that girls’ education is used for simplicity, but one must be is among the most significant factors associated with age at careful about not necessarily inferring marriage, with an extensive body of literature documenting causality. Most estimates of impacts are lower levels of schooling as being strongly linked with a lower obtained through regression analysis in age at marriage. Education also plays an important role order to control for other variables that in shaping girls’ aspirations for their lives, giving them the may affect the outcomes of interest. skills they need to engage productively in their communities In some cases, simulations are used. and the workforce, and enhancing their voice and agency in What is measured are thus statistical personal relationships. It is also an important determinant associations, and not necessarily impacts of their health and that of their children, and it is likely to as could be observed, for example, with affect the education of their children as well. Assessing randomized control trials. Since child the impact of child marriage on education also matters for marriage cannot be randomized, we estimating the economic costs of the practice, as discussed in must rely on regression analysis in order a separate brief in this series. But at the same time, estimating to estimate likely impacts, but there is the impact of child marriage on education outcomes, as always a risk of bias in the measures well as understanding the costs of these impacts, has been of the likely impacts of child marriage. challenging, partly because the decision to marry early and the Based on measures of likely impacts, decision to leave school are often made at or close to the same costs associated with selected impacts time and can be closely inter-related. are then computed. Note that we provide cost estimates only for some, and not all In this brief, we explore the findings of our study in regard impacts. These costs rely on a number to the relationship between child marriage and educational of assumptions and are thus tentative. attainment, as well as the effect this relationship has on the Overall, the costs represent an order of educational attainment of the children of those women who magnitude of potential costs rather than married as children themselves. precise estimations. For more details on the methodology and how it relates to key empirical findings, see Wodon (2017). Page 2 · ECONOMIC IMPACTS OF CHILD MARRIAGE: EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT BRIEF June 2017 ESTIMATING THE IMPACTS Reasons Mentioned by Parents for Daughters OF CHILD MARRIAGE ON Dropping out of School Table 1 provides the proportions of school dropouts that EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT parents reported as being caused by child marriage or pregnancy in a few of the core countries considered for this Estimating the impact of child marriage on educational study. The definition of the variables differs slightly between attainment is complex, for the reasons discussed above. What countries; for example, in Uganda, child marriage is not listed is often a very close, if not joint determination of child marriage in the survey as a reason for dropout, so pregnancies are and schooling decisions, as well as the bi-directional causal used as a proxy. Overall, it appears that child marriage and/ links between the two outcomes, pose particular challenges for or adolescent pregnancies account for a substantial share disentangling the unique effect of child marriage. In some cases, of adolescent girls dropping out of or not being enrolled in girls may drop out of school for reasons unrelated to marriage, school. Parents reported that roughly 10 to 30 percent of such as a lack of financial support, parents’ preference to have school dropouts by girls were because of an early marriage or her at home, or poor academic performance, and marriage may a pregnancy, with early marriage often playing a much more become the only seemingly viable life option available to them. substantial role than pregnancies when both options are In other cases, the decision to marry, made by themselves or listed in the survey questionnaires. There is variation between others, may force them to drop out of school. When a girl leaves countries, however, with parents in Mali being the least likely school and marries, it is typically extremely difficult for her to to report marriage or pregnancy as a reason for their daughter return to school at a later time. In addition, child marriage often dropping out of school (7%), whereas in Nepal, almost one- takes place in settings where girls’ educational and employment third did (32%). opportunities are very limited overall. Girls in these settings may face significant barriers to secondary education, such TABLE 1: CHILD MARRIAGE/PREGNANCIES as cost, distance, or an unsafe or unsupportive school AS REASONS FOR NOT BEING IN SCHOOL OR environment, that would limit educational attainment even in DROPPING OUT the absence of child marriage. Thus, many girls who drop out of school to get married may not have been able to achieve a much Sample/Question Share (%) higher level of education if they had not married early. Egypt, Reason for dropping out, Child 2012 secondary/TVET level marriage: Two main approaches have been used in the literature as well 28% as in this study to estimate the impact of child marriage on educational attainment. The first approach relies on reported Mali, Reason for not being in school, girls Child reasons for school dropout provided by parents or other 2013/14 ages 14-17 marriage: informed individuals (such as school principals) in surveys aimed 7% at understanding school dropout more generally. We can use Nepal, Reason for dropping out of school, Child this information to calculate the proportion of school dropouts 2011 girls ages 12-17 marriage: reported to be due to marriage or pregnancy. The second 32% approach relies on estimations of the determinants of school Niger, Reason for dropping out, secondary Child dropout using regression techniques. In this case, instrumental 2015 level marriage: variables can be used to account for endogeneity (i.e., the fact 23% that the decisions to marry and/or remain in school depend on each other). The second approach is generally considered to be Nigeria, Reason for not being in school, Child stronger, as it is less likely to be biased by social norms around 2011 secondary level marriage: reporting of reasons for dropout, which may underestimate 11% the role of child marriage. The results from each approach are Uganda, Reason for dropping out, upper Pregnancy: discussed in the following section. 2012 secondary level 23% Source: Multiple country studies by the authors. Page 3 · ECONOMIC IMPACTS OF CHILD MARRIAGE: EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT BRIEF June 2017 completion for multiple countries in sub-Saharan Africa, South Asia, and Latin America and the Caribbean. We then estimate “It’s not that I wanted to [drop the effects not marrying at various ages below the age of 18 out of school], it was out of on secondary school completion. The results are presented for secondary school completion in Table 2. In all regions, child ignorance that my parents marriage is found to have a statistically significant negative said that a girl’s schooling is impact on secondary school completion. The strength of the effect increases the younger the age at marriage, as expected. not the same thing as a boy’s For example, in sub-Saharan Africa, the estimate of -0.046 and so they should pull me out suggests that marrying at age 17 reduces the likelihood of completing secondary education by 4.6 percentage points. of school to give me away in The earlier a girl marries, the larger the negative impact tends marriage. I did not want that.” to be. Girls married at or before age 12 in sub-Saharan Africa, for example, are 12.3 percentage points less likely to complete school than those who married at 18 or older. “We are faced with long The effects tend to be larger in the Latin American and distances to primary schools. Caribbean and South Asia regions, in part because overall Girls on their way to school rates of secondary school completion for girls are also higher, making dropout more ‘costly’ in terms of educational meet men with money who attainment. These econometric estimates confirm the findings entice our daughters with related to the reasons mentioned by parents - child marriage plays a major role in school dropout across countries and money for sex. Later some regions. get pregnant and drop out of school. Also we have no TABLE 2: IMPACT OF ENDING CHILD MARRIAGE ON CONTRACEPTIVE USE vocational school that will Latin America Sub-Saharan South Asia train our girls after P7 and and Caribbean Africa S4, so we see it as a waste of resources to educate a girl.” Married at 17 -0.045 -0.046 -0.049 QUALITATIVE DATA COLLECTED BY ICRW Married at 16 -0.087 -0.078 -0.095 AND THE WORLD BANK. Married at 15 -0.124 -0.099 -0.137 Married at 14 -0.158 -0.112 -0.176 It is worth noting that subjective parental perceptions of the Married at 13 -0.187 -0.119 -0.210 reasons girls drop out of school may understate the role of Married at 12/ -0.213 -0.123 -0.240 child marriage. Indeed, survey questionnaires related to school earlier dropout often include other responses that may reflect the Source: Nguyen and Wodon (2017a, b, c). influence of marriage, such as parents not being willing to let a daughter continue her studies (which may mask a desire to have the daughter married), or the girl herself not being interested in further studies (which may mask a desire on the part of a girl to get married). As a way to triangulate the IMPACT OF EDUCATIONAL evidence, data can also be collected from other individuals ATTAINMENT ON CHILD who may be familiar with school dropout, such as teachers or principals. These data tend to suggest a larger impact of child MARRIAGE AND EARLY marriage than parents’ reports alone. In Uganda, for example, CHILDBEARING school principals were asked about the main reasons for girls’ school dropout. These data indicate that pregnancies and child Our analysis indicates, not surprisingly, that child marriage marriage account together for a majority of the reasons for reduces educational attainment for girls. Conversely, and dropout at the secondary school level. importantly for policy, our analyses also suggest that increasing girls’ education is one of the best ways to avoid child marriage. This finding confirms the growing consensus Econometric Estimates of the Impact of among policy-makers and program implementers around the Child Marriage protective value of formal education in terms of child marriage. The second approach to estimate the impact of child marriage Reviews of the literature suggest that a variety of interventions on educational attainment uses regression-based techniques designed to promote education for girls, including through to isolate the effect of marrying as a child while controlling conditional or unconditional cash transfers, school vouchers, for other factors that might influence this relationship. free school uniforms, provision of clean and safe sanitation Using this approach and data from Demographic and Health facilities, reductions in school fees, teacher training, and life Surveys (DHS), we pooled findings for girls’ secondary school skills curricula, may help delay the timing of marriage for Page 4 · ECONOMIC IMPACTS OF CHILD MARRIAGE: EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT BRIEF June 2017 adolescent girls. The evidence on some of these interventions is mixed, but more often than not the interventions can help COSTS AND INTERGENERATIONAL delay the age at first marriage and keep girls in schools. IMPACTS Our analyses, again using an instrumental variable approach The impact of child marriage on educational attainment to account for the interdependence between marriage and has important economic implications, because labor force schooling decisions, provide support for the argument that earnings for women tend to be lower in adulthood when their keeping girls in school reduces the likelihood of marrying as educational attainment is lower. As explained in a separate a child. Results, again using DHS data, are provided for the 15 brief in this series, child marriage is estimated to contribute, core countries for this study in Table 3. Here we focus on both on average, to a loss in earnings of about nine percent for the educational attainment and early childbearing (measured as women who married early across 15 countries. This translates births to mothers aged under 18 years). into a loss of about one percent in earnings for the entire labor force, when factoring in all working men and women. This loss With the exception of one statistically insignificant finding, is valued (for 2015) at $26 billion in the 15 countries considered educational attainment has a large and statistically significant for the estimations. effect on both child marriage and early childbearing in every country. In terms of child marriage, every additional year a girl Over time, these losses are likely to be higher due to spends in school reduces her probability of marrying before population growth as well as improvements in standards age 18 by between 3.1 percentage points (in Nigeria) and 12.6 of living. In addition, there would be additional costs due percentage points (in Mali). Even larger effects are seen for to intergenerational effects. Indeed, apart from curtailing early childbearing, depending on how much early childbearing girls’ education, child marriage may also affect the education takes place outside of marriage in a particular country. prospects of the children of child brides. When we assess the impact of a mother’s educational attainment, controlling for other factors, on her children’s educational attainment, we find TABLE 3: IMPACT OF GIRLS’ EDUCATIONAL evidence of a strong effect in many countries. Given the impact ATTAINMENT ON CHILD MARRIAGE AND EARLY of child marriage on lowering girls’ educational attainment CHILDBEARING discussed above, there is no doubt that child marriage also Impact of an Impact of an affects the education prospects of at least some of the children Additional Year Additional Year – both boys and girls – of child brides, which leads to additional of Educational of Educational economic costs. The fact that child marriage contributes to the Attainment Attainment perpetuation of poverty also makes it more likely that there (Beyond Primary) (Beyond Primary) will be intergenerational effects at work. on on Child Marriage Early Childbearing Bangladesh -0.041 -0.060 Burkina -0.071 -0.107 Democratic Rep. -0.046 -0.031 of Congo Egypt -0.054 -0.024 Ethiopia -0.054 -0.060 Malawi -0.037 NS Mali -0.126 -0.075 Mozambique -0.070 -0.030 Nepal -0.039 -0.032 Niger -0.054 -0.126 Nigeria -0.031 -0.036 Pakistan -0.034 -0.028 Republic of Congo -0.082 -0.089 Uganda -0.072 -0.070 Zambia -0.108 -0.046 Source: Wodon and Yedan (2017). Note: NS = Not statistically significant at the 10 percent level. Page 5 · ECONOMIC IMPACTS OF CHILD MARRIAGE: EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT BRIEF June 2017 CONCLUSION Child marriage has a substantial negative impact on girls’ education. This effect is consistent across virtually all of the countries included in these analyses and can have a number of consequences. In economic terms, one very significant consequence is related to the lower lifetime earnings of women who married as children, which is discussed in a separate brief in this series. But beyond the importance of schooling to acquire knowledge and life skills and to improve employability and lifetime earnings, formal education is also an essential way for girls to develop social skills and networks. Given the close correlation between child marriage and school dropout, the vast majority of girls marrying early miss out on these important opportunities. There are also intergenerational effects at work, with boys and especially girls of mothers who married as children less likely to complete secondary education themselves. Finally, as also discussed in another brief in this series, a mother’s educational attainment also appears to have significant negative impacts on her health and that of her children. These and other consequences of child marriage in relation to the education of girls and their children are substantial and long-lasting. They warrant the adoption and implementation of interventions and policies to end the practice of child marriage. Page 6 · ECONOMIC IMPACTS OF CHILD MARRIAGE: EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT BRIEF June 2017 REFERENCES Nguyen, M. C., and Q. Wodon (2017a). Impact of Child Marriage on Educational Attainment in Latin America and the Caribbean. Education Global Practice. Washington, DC: The World Bank. Nguyen, M. C., and Q. Wodon (2017b). Estimating the Impact of Child Marriage on Literacy and Education Attainment in Africa. Education Global Practice. Washington, DC: The World Bank. Nguyen, M. C., and Q. Wodon (2017c). Estimating the Impact of Child Marriage on Literacy and Education Attainment in South Asia. Education Global Practice. Washington, DC: The World Bank. Savadogo, A., and Q. Wodon (2017). Impact of Child Marriage on Women’s Earnings across Multiple Countries. Education Global Practice. Washington, DC: The World Bank. Wodon, Q. (2017). Estimating the Economic Impacts and Costs of Child Marriage Globally: Methodology and Estimates. Education Global Practice. Washington, DC: The World Bank. Wodon, Q., M. C. Nguyen, and C. Tsimpo. (2016). Child Marriage, Education, and Agency in Uganda, Feminist Economist, 22(1): 54-79. Wodon, Q., and A. Yedan (2017). Impact of Educational Attainment on Child Marriage and Early Childbirths: Estimates for 15 Countries. Education Global Practice. Washington, DC: The World Bank. The Economic Impacts of Child Marriage project is a collaborative Recommended citation: Recommended citation for this brief: Wodon, effort by the International Center for Research on Women (ICRW) Q., Nguyen, M. C., Yedan, A. and Edmeades, J. (2017). Economic Impacts and the World Bank, with funding from the Bill & Melinda Gates of Child Marriage: Educational Attainment. Washington, DC: The World Foundation and the Children’s Investment Fund Foundation, and Bank and International Center for Research on Women. additional support from the Global Partnership for Education. This series of papers is jointly produced by the International Center © 2017 The International Bank for Reconstruction and Development / for Research on Women and the World Bank and is available at The World Bank and the International Center for Research on Women (ICRW), www.costsofchildmarriage.org  The findings, interpretations Washington, DC 20433. and conclusions expressed in this paper are entirely those of the author(s) and should not be attributed in any manner to the World Bank, to its affiliated organizations or to members of its Board of Executive Directors or the countries they represent. Citation and the use of material presented in this series should take into account this provisional character. The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this work. The boundaries, colors, denominations and other information shown on any map in this work do not imply any judgment on the part of the World Bank concerning the legal status of any territory or the endorsement or acceptance of such boundaries. Page 7 · ECONOMIC IMPACTS OF CHILD MARRIAGE: EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT BRIEF June 2017