For more information, visit http://www.worldbank.org/prospects January 08, 2016 Taking Stock  U.S. created 292,000 jobs in December. According to a report released today by the Labor Department, non-farm payroll employment increased by 292,000 jobs in December, significantly more than expected (Figure 1). The unemployment rate held steady at 5 percent. November and October’s payroll gains were revised upward from 211,000 to 252,000, and from 298,000 to 307,000, respectively. For 2015 as a whole, the U.S. economy added, on average, 221,000 jobs. Meanwhile, U.S. jobless claims dropped to a seasonally adjusted 277,000 in the week that ended January 2, 10,000 lower than the previous week, and slightly less than expected.  Weak start of 2016 for global equities. Stock markets around the world suffered steep losses this week, rattled by China’s equity market turmoil and lingering weaknesses in oil prices. The benchmark MSCI world stock index fell 5.2 percent in the first four days of the week, with Chinese shares plunging more than 13 percent. At the end of the week, global shares pared some of their losses as China stocks advanced. U.S. stock markets steadied on Friday morning, following the stronger-than- expected December jobs report, but gave up their gains.  Eurozone composite PMI ended 2015 on solid footing; producer prices slipped. The Eurozone Markit composite purchasing managers’ index (PMI) rose to 54.3 in December from 54.2 in November, with a strong contribution from manufacturing (figure 2) (a reading above 50 indicates expansion). Separately, producer prices fell 0.2 percent in November (m/m), following a 0.3 percent drop in October, led by lower prices of intermediate goods, energy, and non-durable consumer goods.  Oil price decline continued. Oil prices hovered around multi-year lows this week. Market turmoil in China compounded concerns that a global supply glut would persist through 2016 along with a bleak demand outlook. Brent, the global benchmark, fell below $33 a barrel for the first time since April 2004. West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the U.S. benchmark, touched $32.10 a barrel, the lowest level since December 2004.  Consumer price inflation accelerated in Tanzania. Consumer prices in Tanzania rose by 6.8 percent (y/y) in December, following a 6.6 percent increase in November. The December reading, the highest since July 2013, reflected an increase in food and transportation prices. Annual core inflation was at 2.4 percent, up from 2.3 percent in November. FIGURE 1 US payrolls surged in December, and the FIGURE 2 Eurozone Composite PMI rose in December. unemployment rate remained steady. Thousand US nonfarm payrolls total (SA, LHS) Percent Markit Eurozone PMI index (SA), expansion > 50 500 7.0 56 US unemployment rate total in labor force 400 (SA, RHS) 6.5 54 300 6.0 52 200 5.5 50 Composite 100 5.0 48 Service Manufacturing 0 4.5 46 Jan-14 Jul-14 Jan-15 Jul-15 Mar-15 Mar-14 May-14 Sep-14 May-15 Nov-14 Sep-15 Nov-15 Jul-13 Oct-13 Jan-14 Jul-14 Oct-14 Jan-15 Jul-15 Oct-15 Jan-13 Apr-13 Apr-14 Apr-15 Source: Bureau of labor statistics. Source: Bloomberg. Produced by DECPG (Eung Ju Kim). Number 288 | January 8, 2016 Weekly Insight: Sources of the growth slowdown in BRICS BRICS growth has been slowing since 2010, reflecting a deceleration in potential growth. Until 2013, the slowdown was predominantly driven by external factors, but the role of domestic factors has increased in the past two years.  BRICS - Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa - registered solid rates of economic growth before the global financial crisis. While they were particularly resilient in the first few years after the financial crisis, their growth pace has been slowing in recent years. BRICS are the largest emerging markets, accounting for about two-thirds of emerging market GDP. Average growth among this group has slowed from an average of 9 percent in 2010 to about 4 percent in 2015. By 2015, three of the BRICS (China, Russia, and South Africa) had been slowing for three or more consecutive years and Brazil was in a steep recession. Long-term growth expectations in these economies have been repeatedly downgraded since 2010.  An unfavorable external environment appears to have been the main source of the slowdown between 2010 and the first quarter of 2014. Among the most important external factors are weak global trade, a steady decline in commodity prices, and tightening global financial conditions. Global trade growth averaged around 7 percent during 2000-2007, but fell to 20 percent below its pre-crisis trend level. The decline was driven by sluggish growth in advanced economies, and by the fact that the maturation of global value chains has further reduced the elasticity of trade flows to activity and exchange rates. In addition, higher capital requirements and tightened financial regulations have reduced banks’ willingness to extend trade finance, and the pace of trade liberalization slowed. The steady decline in commodity prices has set back growth in commodity-exporting BRICS such as Russia, Brazil, and South Africa. Meanwhile, net capital flows to BRICS have undergone bouts of volatility, which have weighed on investment. Investment growth in BRICS has slowed from 16 percent in 2010 to 5 percent in 2014. The external environment is likely to remain challenging for emerging markets.  Since early 2014, domestic factors have come to the forefront as the predominant forces behind slowing growth in BRICS (Figure 3). These factors include a sustained decline in productivity and bouts of policy uncertainty. Slowing BRICs growth has mostly reflected slowing total factor productivity (TFP) growth (Figure 4). Slowing TFP growth has also been reflected in declining potential growth. Bouts of uncertainty in BRICS have weighed on investment. This was associated with periods of stock market and currency volatility. Compounding these challenges, the fiscal positions of BRICS have generally deteriorated considerably since the crisis. In South Africa, debt has increased by about 19 percentage points of GDP since 2007, and Brazil and India’s debt levels are in excess of 60 percent of GDP. Monetary policy space has diverged between commodity exporters and importers. In Brazil and Russia, monetary policy is constrained by above-target inflation, partly as a result of depreciation. Domestic policy environments may become increasingly constrained as weak growth erodes the resilience of private and public balance sheets. Aging populations may dampen potential growth. A combination of countercyclical policies and structural reforms are needed to reinvigorate growth. FIGURE 3 Since 2014, domestic factors have been the dominant FIGURE 4 TFP growth in BRICS has slipped to below pre- cause of BRICS slowdown. global crisis averages. Contribution to BRICS growth. TFP growth in BRICS. Percentage points Percent 3 External 7 Domestic 6 2 5 Average 2003-08 1 4 3 Average 1990-08 0 2 1 -1 0 -1 -2 -2 2013:1 2013:3 2010:1 2010:3 2011:1 2011:3 2012:1 2012:3 2014:1 2014:3 2015:1 2000 2003 2006 2001 2002 2004 2005 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Source: Didier et al. (2015). Source: Didier et al. (2015). Note: Each bar shows the percentage point deviation of growth from the Notes: Unweighted averages. sample mean. External factors include U.S. growth and 10-year bond yields, Chinese growth, EMBI spreads, and terms of trade. Domestic factors include domestic inflation, the real exchange rate, and short-term interest rates. Produced by DECPG (Mark Felsenthal). Number 288 | January 8, 2016 Major Data Releases Fri, 1 Jan - Thu, 7 Jan 2016 Upcoming releases: Fri, 8 Jan - Thu, 14 Jan 2016 Country Date Indicator Period Actual Forecast Previous Country Date Indicator Period Previous Turkey 1/4/2016 CPI (Y/Y) DEC 8.8% 8.3% 8.1% China 1/8/2016 CPI (Y/Y) DEC 1.5% Germany 1/4/2016 CPI (Y/Y) DEC 0.3% 0.6 % 0.4% India 1/12/2016 Industrial Production (Y/Y) NOV 9.8% Germany 1/5/2016 Unemployment Rate DEC 6.3% 6.3% 6.3% Czech Republic 1/12/2016 GDP (Q/Q) Q3 1.1% China 1/5/2016 PMI Composite DEC 49.4 50.00 50.5 Australia 1/13/2016 Unemployment Rate DEC 5.8% United States 1/6/2016 PMI Composite DEC 54.0 54.00 55.9 United States 1/14/2016 Exports (Y/Y) DEC -6.3% Germany 1/7/2016 Retail Sales (Y/Y) NOV 2.3% 3.0% 2.5% United States 1/15/2016 Industrial Production (Y/Y) DEC -1.2% Economic Developments indicators expressed as %ch y/y, except Industrial Production quarterly figures are %ch q/q, annualized 2014 2015 2014 2015 2012 2013 2014 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Industrial Production, S.A. World 2.9 2.5 3.3 2.2 2.5 4.0 1.6 1.2 1.8 3.4 3.3 2.5 3.3 3.0 2.8 3.3 2.7 2.5 2.5 2.3 2.1 2.6 2.1 2.5 1.8 2.0 High Income Countries 0.7 0.3 2.0 0.3 0.5 3.1 2.1 -1.5 0.2 2.1 2.2 1.0 1.5 1.6 1.3 1.8 1.7 1.4 1.4 1.1 0.8 1.2 0.9 1.3 0.8 0.7 Developing Countries 6.8 5.9 5.2 5.0 5.4 5.2 0.8 5.2 3.9 5.3 5.0 4.8 5.9 5.0 5.0 5.4 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.0 3.8 4.6 3.9 4.2 3.2 3.9 East Asia and Pacific 9.4 9.0 7.5 7.7 6.7 8.5 1.7 6.8 5.3 8.5 7.7 6.5 7.5 7.0 6.5 7.4 6.5 6.1 5.8 5.9 5.5 6.2 5.7 5.9 5.0 5.1 East Asia x. China 6.3 5.5 3.0 6.7 5.6 9.5 -4.0 2.8 5.4 4.8 0.9 3.2 5.5 4.3 3.1 5.0 4.3 2.2 6.5 5.1 1.8 3.1 4.4 4.3 1.4 - Europe and Central Asia 9.7 2.3 3.3 1.0 1.6 0.0 2.6 3.9 3.9 2.9 3.5 2.3 2.6 2.6 1.9 1.2 -0.5 1.8 2.6 1.4 1.2 3.5 0.8 4.1 2.8 - Latin America and Caribbean -0.3 1.2 -0.3 -3.3 0.3 -2.5 -4.7 -4.3 -4.8 -3.2 -0.4 -0.4 -0.8 -0.3 -1.9 -1.1 -2.3 -2.6 -2.8 -3.0 -3.4 -2.1 -3.6 -4.0 -4.6 - Middle East and N. Africa 6.0 -7.7 -1.4 0.3 27.4 0.6 -17.8 13.2 - -7.3 -2.6 9.4 17.7 11.0 13.3 7.7 -0.7 -0.6 5.6 4.4 6.8 2.4 2.8 0.4 - - South Asia 1.1 1.8 2.5 5.1 0.6 -1.8 12.5 8.3 3.2 4.7 1.6 1.9 3.5 -1.5 5.8 4.2 3.4 5.1 3.4 4.4 4.3 5.6 5.1 7.4 3.8 - Sub-Saharan Africa 3.2 1.1 0.2 1.7 -5.9 9.3 -1.2 -5.4 5.9 0.6 -7.3 -0.6 6.2 1.4 -0.8 0.4 -1.2 0.1 3.6 -1.8 -0.3 -0.8 5.1 0.7 0.4 - Inflation, S.A. 1 High Income Countries 2.3 2.1 2.8 3.0 3.0 2.9 2.4 2.0 1.6 3.1 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.1 2.9 2.8 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.0 2.0 1.9 1.8 1.6 1.3 1.3 Developing Countries 6.0 6.3 5.4 5.5 5.4 5.0 5.0 5.4 5.2 5.4 5.6 5.5 5.2 5.0 4.8 5.0 4.7 5.1 5.2 5.4 5.4 5.5 5.2 5.2 5.2 5.2 East Asia and Pacific 2.9 3.0 2.6 2.9 2.5 2.2 1.8 2.0 2.2 3.0 2.7 2.5 2.2 2.1 2.2 2.3 1.5 2.0 2.0 2.2 1.9 2.0 2.2 2.4 2.0 1.7 Europe and Central Asia 9.0 6.5 7.9 7.9 8.5 8.9 9.1 10.7 9.8 8.0 8.2 8.6 8.7 8.9 9.1 8.6 8.3 9.0 9.8 11.0 11.0 10.1 9.7 9.7 10.1 10.1 Latin America and Caribbean 4.8 5.1 5.1 4.9 5.3 5.3 5.8 6.4 6.9 5.0 5.3 5.3 5.4 5.3 5.3 5.2 5.4 5.7 6.2 6.1 6.3 6.6 6.9 6.9 6.9 7.2 Middle East and N. Africa 13.8 19.2 10.9 9.7 10.0 10.7 10.8 11.4 9.0 9.1 9.9 10.2 10.1 10.4 10.5 11.2 10.3 10.9 11.1 11.3 11.7 11.2 9.6 8.7 8.6 8.0 South Asia 9.4 10.1 6.6 7.8 6.7 4.2 5.0 4.8 3.7 6.8 7.4 6.9 5.8 4.7 3.5 4.4 5.1 5.1 4.9 4.6 4.8 5.1 3.5 3.6 4.1 4.6 Sub-Saharan Africa 11.1 8.1 9.0 9.2 9.7 8.4 7.5 8.4 8.8 9.7 9.9 10.1 9.3 8.3 8.4 8.5 7.6 7.5 7.5 8.0 8.2 9.0 8.8 8.7 8.8 9.0 1 Inflation is calculated as the GDP-weighted average for all groups. Trade and Finance indicators expressed as %ch y/y, except International Reserves are %ch p/p and trade quarterly figures are %ch q/q, annualized 2014 2015 2014 2015 2012 2013 2014 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Exports, Nominal, US$, S.A. World 0.3 1.8 1.0 4.2 0.9 -16.0 -27.5 -1.4 -4.8 3.5 5.2 0.8 2.7 -1.5 -4.6 -4.0 -11.0 -7.3 -13.3 -13.7 -13.6 -8.1 -13.7 -13.4 -12.1 - High Income Countries -1.2 1.3 0.7 1.3 -2.9 -19.0 -29.0 0.4 -6.5 2.9 4.7 -0.5 0.9 -3.4 -6.4 -5.6 -12.7 -13.5 -13.7 -15.2 -15.4 -9.8 -14.9 -14.9 -13.1 - Developing Countries 4.0 3.2 1.9 11.4 10.6 -8.8 -24.1 -5.3 -0.6 5.1 6.3 3.8 7.0 3.3 -0.3 -0.2 -7.1 8.4 -12.4 -10.0 -9.2 -3.9 -10.7 -10.0 -9.8 -10.6 East Asia and Pacific 6.3 6.4 4.7 18.9 17.3 0.0 -16.5 -11.2 3.2 7.9 11.5 8.2 12.5 7.9 3.4 5.6 -3.4 29.4 -11.6 -6.5 -4.3 0.6 -7.8 -6.2 -5.4 -8.0 Europe and Central Asia 1.9 -0.5 -1.3 -7.3 -10.3 -28.2 -17.0 -14.9 -3.8 3.6 3.4 -4.6 -2.4 -6.0 -10.9 -14.0 -13.6 -16.2 -18.3 -16.8 -21.4 -15.3 -20.3 -15.6 -13.1 - Latin America and Caribbean 2.4 0.6 0.0 8.5 3.0 -23.6 -18.3 -3.1 -8.5 2.4 6.5 0.6 1.2 -3.5 -7.5 -6.0 -7.8 -12.3 -5.5 -11.9 -14.5 -7.1 -11.2 -16.1 -14.1 -11.2 Middle East and N. Africa 5.6 -11.1 -7.5 -1.5 26.0 -11.1 -60.0 - - -8.8 -18.1 -1.7 2.0 16.5 -3.4 -10.4 -15.5 -21.8 -18.1 -11.1 - - - - - - South Asia -1.8 6.2 2.6 11.1 -0.2 -3.4 -45.0 7.3 -14.5 8.9 -0.3 1.4 0.1 -6.5 8.7 -0.6 -7.5 -12.5 -17.2 -12.6 -16.7 -9.9 -10.6 -16.1 -22.2 -13.8 Sub-Saharan Africa -2.5 -1.1 -5.9 -8.3 -4.0 -29.6 -47.8 13.8 - -1.3 -0.3 -9.5 -2.5 -10.8 -11.5 -12.4 -26.0 -28.6 -18.6 -25.6 -16.76 -18.6 - - - - Imports, Nominal, US$, S.A. World 0.6 1.6 1.2 -1.5 -0.6 -14.2 -30.3 -2.8 -4.8 5.1 3.1 0.9 3.8 -2.1 -4.1 -3.1 -13.3 -12.9 -11.4 -14.2 -15.3 -9.0 -13.2 -12.7 -15.4 - High Income Countries -1.1 0.5 1.8 0.3 -4.2 -16.7 -27.9 -2.8 -4.2 6.1 5.4 0.7 2.4 -3.3 -5.3 -3.7 -13.1 -13.0 -12.4 -15.0 -15.3 -10.3 -14.7 -12.2 -13.7 - Developing Countries 4.9 4.1 0.0 -5.6 8.2 -8.4 -35.4 -2.9 -6.3 3.0 -2.1 1.3 7.3 0.8 -1.4 -1.9 -13.6 -12.7 -9.0 -12.4 -15.2 -6.0 -9.5 -13.8 -19.4 -16.8 East Asia and Pacific 5.6 6.1 -0.4 -12.6 9.9 -10.0 -39.1 0.9 -2.9 2.9 -3.1 -0.4 6.6 2.4 -5.3 -3.7 -17.2 -17.0 -9.6 -14.0 -15.8 -5.2 -9.0 -14.2 -19.6 -18.3 Europe and Central Asia 0.8 2.6 -6.2 -7.6 -8.1 -7.1 -29.4 -19.5 -16.9 -1.9 -11.2 -4.8 -5.6 -7.9 -9.4 -9.8 -15.4 -12.8 -12.5 -17.4 -18.0 -14.1 -15.1 -17.9 -22.7 - Latin America and Caribbean 4.0 3.8 1.7 1.7 5.0 -5.3 -19.4 -16.6 -5.7 4.9 0.7 1.6 8.7 -2.7 2.7 5.4 -7.4 -6.9 -0.4 -10.4 -14.5 -3.8 -9.8 -12.6 -13.5 -13.6 Middle East and N. Africa 10.8 4.0 1.4 -6.5 11.8 -18.0 -23.0 - - -2.0 0.5 10.3 5.0 -1.5 -4.3 -2.7 -11.2 -7.0 -11.3 -7.5 - - - - - - South Asia 4.0 -3.8 1.1 9.0 30.3 -10.2 -54.7 23.9 0.5 8.6 2.5 5.1 23.5 6.7 21.1 -1.4 -12.3 -13.3 -12.8 -7.5 -12.0 -10.3 -9.9 -11.4 -24.5 -20.0 Sub-Saharan Africa 4.2 5.9 5.3 19.0 -4.5 10.5 -29.8 - - 5.5 3.8 6.9 9.2 4.9 3.6 8.6 -1.8 2.1 -9.6 -9.8 - - - - - - International Reserves, US$ High Income Countries 9.2 3.2 -1.9 0.7 -1.9 -1.5 -0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 -0.5 -0.1 -1.4 -0.7 0.1 -0.8 0.3 -0.1 -0.6 0.8 -0.3 -0.1 -0.6 0.2 0.7 - Developing Countries 5.5 8.7 -0.2 1.5 -1.9 -1.7 -2.5 0.0 -4.0 0.5 -0.1 0.0 -1.7 -0.7 -0.2 -0.8 -0.7 -0.2 -1.6 0.7 -0.6 -0.2 -1.0 -1.8 -1.3 0.3 East Asia and Pacific 4.5 12.2 0.2 1.2 -2.5 -1.4 -2.8 -0.8 -4.9 0.3 -0.5 0.1 -2.1 -0.8 -0.3 -0.4 -0.8 -0.2 -1.9 0.6 -0.9 -0.4 -1.3 -2.4 -1.2 0.4 Europe and Central Asia 11.4 3.5 -8.2 4.2 -0.5 -7.2 -6.2 1.0 1.2 1.2 -0.5 1.4 -1.4 -1.5 -1.1 -4.7 -1.7 -2.8 -1.9 0.9 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.4 -0.9 - Latin America and Caribbean 9.9 1.8 3.6 3.3 1.5 -1.8 -0.1 0.7 -3.2 1.3 1.2 0.1 0.2 -0.1 0.4 -2.2 0.4 -0.6 0.0 0.7 -0.1 0.1 -0.4 -0.8 -2.0 -0.7 Middle East and N. Africa 5.9 3.0 -10.3 -2.2 -3.8 -2.8 -5.9 1.5 - -0.6 -0.4 -1.1 -2.3 -0.2 0.3 -2.9 -3.3 -0.4 -2.3 1.7 -0.64 0.1 - - - - South Asia 0.4 -0.2 11.3 5.6 -0.6 2.1 5.9 4.7 -1.1 1.5 1.3 -0.4 -1.4 0.5 -0.3 1.9 1.8 3.2 0.8 1.5 1.7 1.5 -0.5 -0.3 -0.5 1.2 Produced by DECPG (Trang Nguyen, Xinghao Gong). Number 288 | January 8, 2016 Financial Markets 1 2014 2015 2014 2015 MRV 2013 2014 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Interest rates and LIBOR (%) U.S. Fed Funds Effective 0.11 0.09 0.09 0.10 0.11 0.13 0.14 0.09 0.09 0.09 0.09 0.09 0.12 0.12 0.11 0.11 0.12 0.12 0.13 0.13 0.15 0.14 0.12 0.12 0.24 0.36 ECB repo 0.55 0.16 0.12 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.15 0.15 0.06 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.00 0.05 US$ LIBOR 3-months 0.27 0.23 0.23 0.24 0.26 0.28 0.31 0.23 0.23 0.23 0.23 0.23 0.25 0.25 0.26 0.27 0.28 0.28 0.28 0.29 0.32 0.33 0.32 0.37 0.54 0.62 EURIBOR 3-months 0.15 0.00 0.13 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.17 0.16 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.06 US 10-yr Treasury yield 2.33 2.53 2.49 2.27 1.97 2.15 2.20 2.53 2.41 2.52 2.29 2.32 2.20 1.88 1.98 2.04 1.92 2.19 2.35 2.32 2.14 2.14 2.04 2.26 2.23 2.16 German Bund, 10 yr 1.63 1.24 1.07 0.77 0.35 0.53 0.70 1.19 1.01 1.00 0.87 0.79 0.64 0.45 0.35 0.26 0.16 0.58 0.83 0.76 0.66 0.68 0.55 0.55 0.59 0.54 Spreads (basis points) JP Morgan Emerging Markets 319 330 301 367 425 380 423 282 310 312 349 350 402 443 420 411 388 369 384 397 397 442 437 413 413 442 Asia 219 206 195 202 219 201 233 195 202 187 207 193 206 233 215 208 206 195 203 212 212 250 246 235 235 249 Europe 267 287 262 319 399 336 345 244 274 270 295 293 368 417 396 384 350 327 330 328 328 347 332 294 294 304 Latin America & Caribbean 379 407 366 471 537 487 560 336 373 390 443 455 516 560 531 521 488 471 504 527 527 585 582 553 553 599 Middle East 435 388 369 398 449 420 447 372 379 358 395 388 411 452 452 443 441 409 410 420 420 479 502 503 503 505 Africa 322 323 280 319 373 355 425 278 292 270 307 306 343 385 364 371 361 345 358 374 374 472 490 482 482 558 Stock Indices (end of period) 2 Global (MSCI) 409 417 417 417 425 424 382 423 432 417 419 426 417 410 432 425 436 435 424 427 403 382 411 407 399 378 High-Income ($ Index) 1661 1710 1698 1710 1741 1736 1582 1714 1749 1698 1708 1740 1710 1678 1773 1741 1778 1779 1736 1766 1659 1582 1706 1694 1663 1576 United States (S&P-500) 1848 2059 1972 2059 2068 2063 1920 1931 2003 1972 2018 2068 2059 1995 2105 2068 2086 2107 2063 2104 1992 1920 2079 2080 2044 1943 Euro Area (S&P-350$) 1339 1401 1411 1401 1624 1552 1405 1380 1404 1411 1382 1425 1401 1502 1603 1624 1618 1630 1552 1614 1478 1405 1523 1558 1474 1395 Japan (Nikkei-225) 16291 16292 16174 17674 19207 20236 17388 15621 15425 16174 16414 17460 17451 17674 18798 19207 19520 20563 20236 20585 18812 17388 19083 19921 0 17633 Developing Markets (MSCI) 1003 956 1005 956 975 972 792 1066 1088 1005 1016 1005 956 962 990 975 1048 1004 972 902 882 792 848 814 794 739 EM Asia 446 457 460 457 481 475 391 485 489 460 467 467 457 468 479 481 514 499 475 440 433 391 422 408 404 375 EM Europe 438 297 374 297 302 311 259 403 399 374 369 353 297 286 313 302 338 320 311 293 285 259 273 263 244 234 EM Europe & Middle East 372 257 321 257 258 266 226 340 337 321 314 303 257 247 269 258 286 271 266 253 246 226 235 222 211 201 EM Latin America & Caribbean 3201 2728 3171 2728 2451 2517 1895 3399 3664 3171 3158 3008 2728 2555 2654 2451 2693 2496 2517 2305 2206 1895 2007 1919 1830 1696 Exchange Rates (LCU / USD) High Income Euro Area 0.75 0.75 0.76 0.80 0.89 0.90 0.90 0.74 0.75 0.78 0.79 0.80 0.81 0.86 0.88 0.92 0.92 0.90 0.9 0.91 0.89 0.89 0.89 0.93 0.92 0.92 Japan 97.61 105.89 104.04 114.62 119.16 121.38 122.06 101.75 102.98 107.39 108.02 116.40 119.44 118.33 118.78 120.37 119.53 120.87 123.7 123.39 122.71 120.10 120.01 122.61 121.6 117.73 Developing Brazil 2.16 2.35 2.28 2.55 2.87 3.07 3.55 2.22 2.27 2.34 2.45 2.55 2.65 2.64 2.82 3.15 3.04 3.06 3.1 3.23 3.53 3.89 3.88 3.78 3.87 4.04 China 6.15 6.16 6.16 6.15 6.24 6.20 6.31 6.20 6.15 6.14 6.13 6.13 6.19 6.22 6.25 6.24 6.20 6.20 6.2 6.21 6.34 6.38 6.35 6.37 6.45 6.59 Egypt 6.87 7.08 7.15 7.15 7.49 7.61 7.82 7.15 7.15 7.15 7.15 7.15 7.15 7.27 7.59 7.60 7.60 7.62 7.6 7.81 7.83 7.83 7.91 7.91 7.83 7.82 India 58.55 61.03 60.59 61.96 62.24 63.43 64.97 60.06 60.83 60.87 61.40 61.70 62.77 62.20 62.06 62.48 62.69 63.76 63.8 63.65 65.09 66.16 65.04 66.15 66.54 66.93 Russia 31.86 38.58 36.31 47.98 62.87 52.69 63.62 34.75 36.17 38.01 40.96 46.30 56.67 64.33 64.16 60.13 52.82 50.65 54.6 57.53 66.23 67.10 63.31 65.01 70.19 74.83 South Africa 9.65 10.85 10.77 11.22 11.74 12.08 13.03 10.66 10.66 10.99 11.06 11.09 11.51 11.56 11.58 12.08 11.99 11.97 12.3 12.46 12.94 13.67 13.48 14.14 15.04 16.03 Memo: USA nominal effective rate104.85 110.58 110.75 114.29 120.07 121.87 125.85 109.59 110.79 111.87 112.87 114.06 115.94 118.13 119.99 122.10 121.76 121.40 122.4 123.89 126.13 127.52 126.92 128.15 0.00 131.55 1 MRV = Most Recent Value. 2 MSCI Indices for Asia, Africa, and Europe and C. Asia, for 2008 are calculated from February-December, due to data availability. 3 Change expressed in levels for interest rates and spreads; percent change for stock market and exchange rates. Commodity Prices 2014 2015 2015 MRV 2013 2014 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 1 Oil price, $/b, nominal 104 96 100 75 52 60 48 105 100 96 86 77 61 47 55 53 57 63 61 54 45 46 47 43 37 31 Non - Oil Index 2 79 75 74 71 66 64 60 76 75 72 71 72 70 67 66 64 64 65 63 63 59 58 58 56 56 59 3 Metals and Minerals Index 94 87 89 83 74 73 65 90 90 87 84 84 80 75 74 73 73 76 72 67 64 65 63 59 57 56 Baltic Dry Index 4 1215 1103 954 1105 614 629 975 796 944 1123 1101 1332 881 727 539 576 591 596 699 975 1061 889 790 582 510 445 1 Simple average of Brent, Dubai and WTI. 2 Base Date = Jan 3, 2011 due to data availability. The Index component combination in the Weekly tables differs from that of the Pink Sheet. 3 Base Date = Jan 4, 2010 due to data availability. The Index component combination in the Weekly tables differs from that of the Pink Sheet. 4 Base Date = May 1, 1985 Produced by DECPG (Trang Nguyen, Xinghao Gong). Number 288 | January 8, 2016