79165 Tanzania Let’s Think Together Jacques Morisset Waly Wane Isis Gaddis Loy Nabeta TA N Z A N I A L E T ’ S T H I N K TO G E T H E R | ii www.blogs.worldbank.org/africacan/tanzania-lets-think-together TA N Z A N I A L E T ’ S T H I N K TO G E T H E R | About this booklet Every Sunday, since July 2012, the PREM team of the World Bank country of�ce in Tanzania, in collaboration with The Citizen newspaper, has published a column entitled, ‘Tanzania: Let’s Think Together’. The goal of the column was to share little-known but pertinent data from recent of�cial surveys on a variety of topics and so stimulate a broad based debate among stakeholders in Tanzania. These topics have span across all areas of org/africacan/) where it was also posted, the development dialogue – agriculture, it was felt that a booklet could be compiled environment, governance, taxation, natural and published in both Kiswahili and English resources, etc. in order to make the information more easily accessible to those who may not have kept up With the success of the series as illustrated with the column or the blog. by the number of readers who responded to the column in the newspaper and the close A selection of readers’ responses is also to 200,000 visitors to the World Bank Chief published alongside some of the pieces. Economist’s blog (http://blogs.worldbank. iii www.blogs.worldbank.org/africacan/tanzania-lets-think-together TA N Z A N I A L E T ’ S T H I N K TO G E T H E R | June 2013 This publication is a product of the Poverty Reduction and Economic Monitoring (PREM) team of the World Bank Tanzania country of�ce 50 Mirambo Street Dar es Salaam Tanzania www.worldbank.org www.worldbank.org/Tanzania www.blogs.worldbank.org/africacan/tanzania-lets-think-together Design: Jamana Printers ltd. iv www.blogs.worldbank.org/africacan/tanzania-lets-think-together TA N Z A N I A L E T ’ S T H I N K TO G E T H E R | Contents Foreword .........................................................................................................................2 Acknowledgements ......................................................................................................3 Economic Growth / Poverty / Policy ..........................................................................5 Labor / Private Sector / Financial Services .............................................................24 Agricultural / Food / Rural / Environment ............................................................ 45 Social Services ..............................................................................................................61 Infrastructure ...............................................................................................................79 1 www.blogs.worldbank.org/africacan/tanzania-lets-think-together TA N Z A N I A L E T ’ S T H I N K TO G E T H E R | Foreword The idea of the ‘Tanzania Let’s Think Together’ to access to roads. Readers could easily relate to series emerged in the World Bank of�ces in Dar these and contribute earnestly to the discussion. es Salaam. My colleagues Jacques Morisset and The sample of comments received that you Waly Wane were engaged in an animated debate will �nd in the booklet illustrates the richness about the results of a household survey that of opinion on these issues which they consider had just been released by the National Bureau near and dear. of Statistics. They eventually took the discussion to email in order to involve other colleagues This booklet consists of 50 pieces that have been who are concerned with Tanzania’s quest for published to date and it offers readers a handy development. Thus, the �rst piece in the series and convenient reference on some of the most was born in April 2012. important issues that are shaping or that will shape Tanzania’s economic development. The Readers instantly jumped into the debate in the readers will be able to reflect on the complexity of Citizen newspaper which we partnered with the development challenges that the country still to publish the series locally and on the blog has to confront. They will also get to appreciate supervised by Shanta Devarajan, the World Bank the aspects on which Tanzania has been doing Chief Economist for Africa at the time. Since then, well over the past decade, such as the expansion the series has been published almost every week of the exports sector and the use of mobile for about 15 months and it has been read by phones and to reflect on the opportunities that more 200,000 people on the internet. It was also such developments still present. circulated internally through email and often drew spirited reactions from its readers there as well. At the World Bank, we understand that beyond providing �nancial assistance to countries, we One of the main reasons many of us found the need also to share information and analyses ‘Let’s Think Together’ series decidedly easy that can promote debate over policy with a wide to follow and engage with was its very simple range of stakeholders. These debates which also format which entailed plain reporting of statistics help to improve the quality of our own analyses that had hitherto not been publicized concerning also enhance the environment in the country to a speci�c sector in Tanzania, for example, health, ensure better implementation of reforms over education or water. A brief but illuminating time. Thus the contribution of platforms such storyline would then be developed, drawing on as the ‘Let’s think Together’ series is de�nitely a comparisons with other contexts, both local step in the right direction. and international, before a set of questions was posed to the reader in the interactive spirit of platform. Marcelo M. Giugale Director The selected issues were not just topical but also Department of Economic Policy and Poverty close to ordinary people’s preoccupations – from Reduction Programs Africa school attendance to household consumption The World Bank 2 www.blogs.worldbank.org/africacan/tanzania-lets-think-together TA N Z A N I A L E T ’ S T H I N K TO G E T H E R | Acknowledgements While working on the Let’s Think Together series engagement without Shanta Devarajan, the over the past year we received useful feedback former Chief Economist for the Africa Region, from many of our colleagues which was always who gave us the opportunity to publish the of tremendous help in improving the series. We series on the ‘Africa Can’ blog thereby reaching are particularly grateful to Sanjeev Ahluwalia, out to a much wider audience. Mapi Buitano Dominic Haazen and David Rohrbach, who often also provided invaluable editorial assistance challenged our views and compelled us to re�ne when she was posting the pieces on the web. our arguments. We also thank Kristoffer Welsien and Janneke Hartvig Blomberg for co-authoring In putting together this booklet, Agnes Mganga two pieces in the series. Philippe Dongier, provided excellent administrative support. We the Country Director for Tanzania, Uganda also thank Rosalie Ferrao for coordinating with and Burundi has been extremely supportive the Citizen and Josaphat Kweka for supporting throughout with thoughtful questions and us with the Kiswahili translation. advice both on content and format. Last but not least we would like to thank It would not have been possible to develop Costantine Sebastian, the Citizen Weekend the Let’s Think Together into a platform of Editor, for making this collaboration possible. 3 www.blogs.worldbank.org/africacan/tanzania-lets-think-together TA N Z A N I A L E T ’ S T H I N K TO G E T H E R | 4 www.blogs.worldbank.org/africacan/tanzania-lets-think-together TA N Z A N I A L E T ’ S T H I N K TO G E T H E R | Economic Growth / Poverty / Policy 1. A well-kept secret: Tanzania’s export performance........................................ 6 2. Mountains of gold: A blessing or a curse? ........................................................ 8 3. Is Tanzania attracting enough tourists? .......................................................... 10 4. Raising tax revenues ........................................................................................... 12 5. Aid… how much, who, where? ......................................................................... 14 6. The persistent urban-rural divide.....................................................................15 7. Life in a rural household in 2010 ...................................................................... 17 8. Countering the threat of crime ......................................................................... 18 9. Corruption is a concern for Tanzanians ......................................................... 20 10. Who are your political leaders? .........................................................................22 5 www.blogs.worldbank.org/africacan/tanzania-lets-think-together 1 TA N Z A N I A L E T ’ S T H I N K TO G E T H E R | A well-kept secret: Tanzania’s export performance Outward looking strategies have been used by most countries Even fast-growing ‘big’ countries such as Brazil and that have succeeded in their China have relied on world markets. transition toward emergence. What might surprise some though is that Tanzania’s East Asian tigers and dragons export performance in fact exceeded that of Brazil, have witnessed a tremendous Tunisia, Mauritius, Malaysia, Korea, and Thailand and sustained boom in their between 2000 and 2012. Among countries that did exports, as have emerging better were China and Uganda. countries like Chile, Tunisia, Tanzania’s total merchandise export grew �ve-fold Botswana, and Mauritius. reaching US$5.2 billion in 2012. This rapid growth has been driven by: 6 www.blogs.worldbank.org/africacan/tanzania-lets-think-together TA N Z A N I A L E T ’ S T H I N K TO G E T H E R | • Higher prices for Tanzanian’s products on drop in world gold prices by 30 per cent would world markets, accounting respectively reduce Tanzania’s total merchandise exports by for two-thirds of the increase in traditional almost 15 per cent – a serious impact. agricultural products (coffee, tobacco, sisal, Finally, the vast majority of merchandise exports etc.). are low value-added products such as minerals • The emergence of gold – rising from and unprocessed agriculture goods which have US$383 million in 2002 to over US$2 billion minimal direct impacts on jobs and technology in 2012. development in the domestic economy. These • Higher manufacturing exports – growing �gures raise a number of questions at the core from seven per cent of total merchandise of the theories on using exports as a driver of exports in 2002 to 20 per cent in 2012, growth in Tanzania: albeit with a peak of 26 per cent in 2010. • Should the promotion of exports be a • Diversi�cation of markets away from EU national priority for Tanzania? (from approximately 50 to 30 per cent of • How can Tanzania further promote total exports) toward Asia (i.e. from 23 per expansion of its export sector? Should cent to almost 30 per cent) and, above speci�c products or markets be targeted? all, African countries (from approximately • What are the most critical barriers to less than 10 per cent to over 30 per cent) exporting by local �rms? between 2000 and 2011. • What are the risks associated with an The fast expansion of Tanzania’s exports is outward-looking strategy? good news for those who believe in outward- looking strategies for sustainable economic Source: The World Bank’s World Development development. Local �rms are able to Indicators and Bank of Tanzania’s statistics. All complement the limited domestic demand by are publicly available. selling their goods to consumers abroad. In the process, they get to learn new things from their foreign supply and marketing networks. READER COMMENTS Foreign competition can also generate a healthy dynamism because exporting �rms have to Now is the time to set up commercial of�ces, invest in research and development, and adjust to survive. However, Tanzania’s export engage in marketing to develop a global performance also needs to be quali�ed on three brand. Tanzania’s boom should not be a high counts. First, the rapid annual growth rate of 15 point rather, it should be a stepping stone per cent observed between 2000 and 2012 has into the global market place of value added come from a very low starting point (the share goods. of goods and services exports in the GDP was The export of raw materials discourages the only around 13 per cent in Tanzania against development of industries, which is as good over 60 per cent in Malaysia, Thailand, and as slavery. A country cannot prosper unless Mauritius). agriculture and industries develop to become Secondly, exports remain concentrated as self-suf�cient and export manufactured goods. gold now counts for over 40 percent of total merchandise exports. As a result, a sudden 7 www.blogs.worldbank.org/africacan/tanzania-lets-think-together 2 TA N Z A N I A L E T ’ S T H I N K TO G E T H E R | Mountains of gold: A blessing or a curse? Gold, gems, uranium, coal, iron, copper, nickel, name it…Tanzania is undoubtedly rich in mineral resources. These ‘treasures’ have attracted considerable attention within the country and abroad. It is estimated that over 500,000 Tanzanians are employed in the mining sector, principally in traditional small scale activities. The sector has also attracted enormous foreign • The accumulated Foreign Direct Investment direct investment. As a result, mining has been in the mining sector was over US$ 500 one of the driving forces of the Tanzanian million between 2000 and 2007. economy over several years as illustrated by the • Today Tanzania is the third largest producer following statistics: of gold in Sub-Saharan Africa. • GDP growth of the mining (and quarrying) The expansion of the mining sector has sector has averaged 10.2 per cent per year contributed to higher economic growth and between 2000 and 2012, making it one of increased exports as well as capital inflows in the fastest growing sectors in the country. Tanzania over the years. Those factors are key to • Mining has become the main source of successful economic development although they foreign exchange for Tanzania, accounting might not be entirely suf�cient as experienced for almost 50 per cent of total merchandise elsewhere. exports which is equivalent to over US$ 2.4 The mining sector is expected to further billion in 2011. This is an increase from US$ contribute to the development of the national 1 billion in 2007. 8 www.blogs.worldbank.org/africacan/tanzania-lets-think-together TA N Z A N I A L E T ’ S T H I N K TO G E T H E R | economy by second-level effects that include: • To what extent do the mining companies tax and non-tax payments; the development have a corporate responsibility to contribute of joint infrastructure; and the emergence of to local development? Why, and if yes, how? linkages with local businesses. • How should the impact of mining companies In the past year, one of the most debated issues in on the environment be dealt with? Tanzania has been the amount of �scal revenue • Should the Government focus on maximizing contributed by the large mining companies. The the development of joint infrastructure Extractive Industry Transparence Initiative (EITI) rather than collecting more revenues? estimates their total �scal contribution at Sh337 Note: The above statistics were sourced from billion in 2009/10, equivalent to seven per cent the ministry of Minerals and Energy (httt:// of total Government revenues collected in that www.mem.go.tz/mineral-sector-overview), the year. The same report indicates that an operator ministry of Finance, the Bank of Tanzania and like Anglo-Gold Ashanti (owning the Geita gold EITI reports. mine) paid in tax and non-taxes (principally royalties) only �ve per cent of its total production. In Ghana, the same company (with two gold mines there) paid the equivalent to 12 per cent READER COMMENTS of its total production in 2009 – more than twice its contribution in Tanzania. It amazing the country is the third largest Other issues in the discussion include whether producer of gold in Africa yet its people the roads built by these companies for their do not feel the bene�ts of this blessing, own use have contributed to local community especially those in the regions where these development by, for instance, reducing transport resources are extracted from, such as Mara. costs and connecting communities to new Tanzania is repeating the same mistake in gas as it did with mining. There are still no markets. descent training centers for the jobs that Furthermore, while the large mining companies are going to be created and the SMEs aren’t have been (net) consumers of energy this might competitive. Is that the miners’ fault or ours? have been at the expense of other local �rms and households. And as far as generating local The mining sector, like tourism and other employment is concerned, the large mining related economic sectors would be more visible to Tanzanian economy if there was operations are not seen as good catalysts as transparency. As far as things stand currently, they tend to be very capital-intensive and utilize processes – especially contracts and taxation technical expertise that is generally not sourced – are opaque. Only a few top individuals know locally. The only positive effect on employment, it the reality of the transactions. is argued, is usually seen during the construction phase which this is short-lived. The question is not so much as to whether • Do you think that the contribution of the the mining companies should pay more or mining sector to the Tanzanian economy is less in taxes; the fundamental issues are too low? the management of and accountability for the revenues from these resources and the • Should mining companies pay more in taxes contribution of the mining entities to the local even if higher rates could discourage future communities. investment? 9 www.blogs.worldbank.org/africacan/tanzania-lets-think-together 3 TA N Z A N I A L E T ’ S T H I N K TO G E T H E R | Is Tanzania attracting enough tourists? Tourism is among the world’s most lucrative industries. The latest �gures from 2009 show that the industry generated US$852 billion in export earnings worldwide, scores of unique wildlife, and as the home of accommodated more than 800 the Kilimanjaro, the roof of Africa, which thrones million travelers, and accounted at above 5,880 meters, Tanzania couldn’t have for more than 255 million jobs or been better placed to be a formidable player in nearly 11 per cent of the global the tourist industry. workforce in that year. This is also in addition to the fact that the country has enjoyed enduring political stability and relatively low crime rates. No wonder The It is no surprise then that this industry is New York Times awarded Tanzania 7th position considered a major driver for employment, out of 45 must-visit destinations in 2012. Yet, growth and development. As a country that is the numbers tell a different story. enormously endowed with marvels such as the Ngorongoro Crater and the Great Migration; the • With an estimated 714,000 and 782,000 many beautiful beaches and the magni�cent visitors in 2009 and 2010, Tanzania attracted game reserves and national parks that host less tourists than Uganda (806,658; 945,899 10 www.blogs.worldbank.org/africacan/tanzania-lets-think-together TA N Z A N I A L E T ’ S T H I N K TO G E T H E R | and 1,151,356 in 2009, 2010 and 2011) and Seychelles where the average visitor who stayed Kenya (952,481 in 2009 and 1,095,945 in 10 days spent US$2,200. 2010 up from 729,000 in 2008 just after the Notably, in Tanzania, tourism is concentrated political violence). in the Arusha and Zanzibar with more than 90 • Mara, the Kenyan side of the Serengeti percent of visitors spending most of their time in which occupies only a tenth of its total size these two regions. attracts 10 times more visitors than the This raises a number of questions: Serengeti National Park in Tanzania. • Should Tanzania attempt to attract more • Tourism generates around 250,000 (direct tourists than Kenya or Uganda in order to and indirect) jobs in Tanzania or less than create more jobs locally? two per cent of the labor force, while in Kenya • Is Tanzania adequately marketing itself to the industry accounts for 483,000 jobs. the outside world? • In 2008 Tanzania received 0.017 visitors • Why is safari tourism in Tanzania so much per inhabitant, the 17th lowest out of 147 more expensive than Kenya? countries.Average bed occupancy rate in • Should government promote low-cost Tanzanian hotels was estimated at only 47 tourism in regions that are not visited by percent in 2010. tourists? • Should government invest more in Tanzania’s lackluster performance in tourism infrastructure and in the quality of services? compared to its neighbors seems partly • Are upscale international hotel chains attributable to its being a relatively more capturing too much of the gains from expensive destination. Safari hotels in Kenya tourism? How can quality services be are on average US$300 cheaper per night than delivered by local agents? those in Tanzania. Even within Tanzania, hotels • How can Tanzania control the attendant in safari areas are more than three times more negative, environmental and social effects expensive than beach hotels. of a successful tourism industry? High costs could reflect Government’s strategy to concentrate on the luxury range of tourism Note: The statistics used here are extracted activities in order to compensate low numbers from the Economic Surveys, the World Travel and with higher expenses per visitor. Indeed, the Tourism Council, the World Bank Kenya Report average tourist in Tanzania stayed an average 2010, The Uganda 2012 tourism Statistical of 11 days and spent US$1,600, which is higher Abstract, and the National Bureau of Economic than in Uganda where the average tourist spends Research working paper # 17902. All are publicly US$700. This is however lower compared to available. READER COMMENTS I remember a German tourist I was guiding in a group of 24 asking me why our embassy over there is not doing enough to sell the nation’s natural endowments. “Instead of waiting for us to come here, why aren’t you marketing to us in Germany?� he asked. We need to improve infrastructure, particularly our airports. They are getting greater numbers of tourists in the Northern Zone because of Kilimanjaro International and Kisongo airports. Hopefully, when the airport in Mbeya goes live the Southern attractions will also be much more marketable. 11 www.blogs.worldbank.org/africacan/tanzania-lets-think-together 4 TA N Z A N I A L E T ’ S T H I N K TO G E T H E R | Raising tax revenues citizens in terms of what they expect from the State. Is the Government able to deliver suf�cient public services and infrastructure with the current level of tax revenues? The simple answer is no. The gap between tax revenues and public spending has averaged about 12 per cent of GDP over the past three The overall tax burden in a years. This gap has been �lled by of�cial aid and, country is largely determined increasingly, by commercial borrowing. by the role that citizens expect However, of�cial aid should only be a temporary the State to play in the economy. �nancing source to help the country in a People are paying more taxes in transition towards economic emergence while France than in the US, not be- commercial borrowing has to be repaid by cause the French are richer but taxpayers sooner or later. For these reasons, because they expect more public there seems to be a consensus in Tanzania services from their government. that without further increases in tax revenues, For this reason, no single ‘opti- necessary investments in education, health and mal’ tax burden can be applied infrastructure will be increasingly dif�cult to uniformly. �nance on a sustainable basis. Looking ahead, �scal revenues from natural gas Tanzania’s tax revenues were equivalent to 15.7 production should help. But this will not happen per cent of GDP in 2011/12. This was higher before seven to 10 years. A close look at the than Uganda (12 per cent) but lower than current reality suggests that Tanzania has not Zambia (16.5 per cent) and Kenya (19.5 per yet tapped its full potential to raise taxes and cent). However, tax-to-GDP ratios are not fully could pursue three complementary actions: comparable across countries because some states might bene�t from signi�cant non-tax • Tanzania grants a vast array of corporate tax revenues, e.g. from natural resources, or raise exemptions, which favor certain companies a greater proportion of their revenues through and industries, but reduce tax proceeds. local taxes. Of�cial estimates place these annual revenue losses at approximately 4 per cent The question that needs to be answered of GDP in 2011/12. is whether the current tax revenue level • Tax revenue is generated by just a handful corresponds to the aspirations of Tanzanian of �rms. While there are more than 800,000 12 www.blogs.worldbank.org/africacan/tanzania-lets-think-together TA N Z A N I A L E T ’ S T H I N K TO G E T H E R | registered taxpayers today, payments are • Is the current level of taxes suf�cient to mostly generated from a few companies. �nance the country’s needs in terms of Similarly, about three quarters of revenues public services and infrastructure? are collected from the Dar es Salaam region • To what extent are people reluctant to pay alone. more taxes because of the State’s failure to • Tax evasion is widespread, even with indirect deliver quality services with their revenues? taxes such as the Value Added Tax (VAT), • What should be the priority for the which should be easier to collect. While Government in its effort to mobilize more in principle the VAT should be collected �scal revenues? Raising actual rates? on every shilling spent for consumption Fighting against evasion? Simplifying tax purposes, the current ratio is below 40 per procedures? cent in Tanzania against 45 per cent in • Should tax policy favor strategic groups Uganda, 54.6 per cent in Zambia and 57.6 through the use of exemptions or should it per cent in Kenya. be uniformly applied to all taxpayers? All of this raises the following questions: Note: The statistics above are from the Ministry of Finance, IMF and World Bank databases. All • Are Tanzanians paying too much, too little or are publicly available. the right amount of taxes today? READER COMMENTS Tanzanians maybe paying too little. But Personally, I think that taxing micro/informal the right question to ask is how that little is sector �rms should be attempted only if spent. People need to see that Government is signi�cant non-tax bene�ts are to be expected spending taxpayers’ money wisely. (i.e. �rms are credit constraint and access to �nancial intermediation is conditional upon Reducing tax exemptions is generally a good tax registration). Otherwise, the administrative idea. It will increase tax revenues, while costs of taxing small �rms are likely to exceed spreading the tax burden more equally and the bene�ts in terms of increased tax revenue. reducing administrative costs for both the �rms and the tax authorities. Spreading Tax exemptions are the �ne tool used by the rich the tax burden more equally will raise the and TRA of�cials to evade taxes paid under the perception that the system is fair and thus guise of being investors. improve tax morale and compliance. 13 www.blogs.worldbank.org/africacan/tanzania-lets-think-together 5 TA N Z A N I A L E T ’ S T H I N K TO G E T H E R | Aid… how much, who, where? United States (12 per cent), the United Kingdom (7.7 per cent), the African Development Bank (6.5 per cent), and the International Monetary Fund (5.7 per cent). While approximately 40 per cent of total aid is unallocated, the privileged sectors have been Health and Education (around one third) and Infrastructure (10 percent). However, signs of a slowdown in aid inflows Tanzania has been receiving a are becoming visible. The aid was down by $1 lot of �nancial assistance from billion in 2010 compared to its highest levels in development partners over the 2006, 2008 and 2009. The share of aid inflows past decade. The cumulated aid in Tanzania’s economic activity also decreased inflows received by the country from 16 per cent to 12 per cent of GDP during the past �ve years. And Tanzania is getting less reached $21 billion between assistance compared to other African countries 2000 and 2010, the fourth largest (6.8 per cent of total aid flows to the region in amount for Sub-Saharan Africa, 2009-2010 against 8.9 per cent in 2000-2001). after Nigeria, Ethiopia and the Democratic Republic of Congo. These �gures raise a number of questions that go to the heart of Tanzania’s development process: The importance of of�cial aid inflows to • To what extent have aid inflows helped Tanzania’s economy is emphasized in the Tanzania’s economy over the past decade? following comparisons: • In what sectors have development partners • Total aid accounted for 12 per cent of helped Tanzania the most? And the least? Tanzania’s GDP over the 2000-2010 period – • Is Tanzania too dependent on aid? at par with Uganda, higher than Senegal and • Is the apparent decline in aid inflows a Ghana (approx. nine per cent) and Kenya concern or simply the logical result of the (four per cent) but lower than Mozambique rapid expansion of the Tanzanian economy? (24 per cent). • Will of�cial aid eventually be replaced by non- • Each dollar of aid was equivalent to 50 per traditional �nancial flows from emerging cent of total investment in the country. countries and/or the private sector? • Total aid represented almost half of the government’s expenditures every year. Note: The �gures above were obtained from • If aid were equally distributed, each OECD aid statistics (http://www.oecd.org/ Tanzanian or each household would have dac/aidstatistics/ ) and the World Bank’s World received $50 or $250 respectively per year. Development Indicators. Data from these For Tanzania, the top �ve contributors in 2009- surveys is publicly available and can be readily 2010 were the World Bank (22 per cent), the consulted. 14 www.blogs.worldbank.org/africacan/tanzania-lets-think-together TA N Z A N I A L E T ’ S T H I N K TO G E T H E R | 6 The persistent urban-rural divide Dar es Salaam is the ninth fastest growing city in the world, the Financial Times reported a few weeks ago. The news report is based on new data provided by ‘City of Mayors’ (www.citymayors.com/statistics/urban_growth1. html). 15 www.blogs.worldbank.org/africacan/tanzania-lets-think-together TA N Z A N I A L E T ’ S T H I N K TO G E T H E R | At the current pace, Tanzania will not be a the exchange of goods, services and ideas. But predominantly rural country at the beginning of the rapid flow of migrants can also generate next decade. Rapid urbanization is not surprising congestion and pollution as well as reduce as moving to an urban center is certainly the access to basic services such as education, most direct way to escape poverty and gain health and housing. access basic services. Today, the urban/rural divide is large in Tanzania. • Should the Government (and donors) On average, a urban household has: increasingly focus their interventions in urban areas? • 13 times more chances to get access to • How can urban services and infrastructure electricity cope with the wave of migrants? • 2.7 times more chances to access piped • Is there a risk to go from rural to urban water misery? • 5.4 times more chances to have a banking • How can agglomeration effects be account magni�ed and help create �rms and jobs? • 4.4 times more chances to use an improved • Should housing projects be considered? pit latrine Roads built? Where to �nd the money? • 3.4 km closer to a health facility • What are the social and political implications • 10 times more chances to complete of people moving to urban centers? secondary or higher education. Note: The statistics above are computed using Rural migration provides an enormous data from the 2010 Demographic and Health opportunity for a country to develop new Survey. Data from this survey are publicly engines of growth. Urbanization can facilitate available and results can be readily replicated. 16 www.blogs.worldbank.org/africacan/tanzania-lets-think-together 7 TA N Z A N I A L E T ’ S T H I N K TO G E T H E R | • No electricity (96.6 per cent of total rural population) • No refrigerator (99.2 per cent) • No television (96.4 per cent) Life in a rural • No motor vehicle (96 per cent) • No bank account (92.8 per cent) • No concrete floor (80.5 per cent), no household in 2010 concrete walls (94.2 per cent) Almost all rural households seem to live just like their parents or even their grand parents. At the same time, phone companies have been doing something right! How many rural household have access a cell phone? Forty per cent. Almost half of rural households own today a phone that gives them the opportunity not only to communicate with family and friends but increasingly to receive money,and access information. • Will this lead to a change in Tanzania’s countryside? • Will this open up new opportunities for business development? • Will this increase accountability as more informed people are likely to ask for more or better? It looks like Tanzania • Will this lead to better service delivery with has been frozen in the development of innovative models for time as the following delivering services? statistics would have been just the same Note: All the statistics presented are 50 years ago. computed using the Tanzania Panel Survey (2010). This survey is publicly available and all statistics can be readily replicated. 17 www.blogs.worldbank.org/africacan/tanzania-lets-think-together TA N Z A N I A L E T ’ S T H I N K TO G E T H E R | 8 Countering the threat of crime Many Tanzanians live in constant fear of falling victim to crime - especially those living in urban areas. The fear of crime negatively affects the quality of life as it makes one feel insecure and vulnerable while going about otherwise normal activities. victims: Six out of 10 households affected by crime over the past �ve years considered this to be among the two most devastating shocks that they had experienced. Unfortunately, the lack of reliable international crime statistics makes it dif�cult to compare prevalence rates across countries. However, the Afrobarometer offers interesting insights into perceptions of crime across the continent: • In 2012, 41 per cent of adult Tanzanians reported that they (or someone in their A few facts: family) had feared crime in their home • In 2010/11 about 390,000 households (four over the previous year. This is comparable per cent) reported they had been severely to Kenya and Malawi but higher than in affected by hijacking, robbery, burglary or Uganda (33 per cent) and lower than in assault (over the previous year). South Africa (54 per cent). • Residents of urban areas are about three If not reined in, crime can have serious economic times more likely than those in rural areas to implications for Tanzania as it presents a threat be victims of these crimes. However, crimes to tourism, it diverts scarce public resources such as cattle rustling are rampant in rural away from productive investments towards areas. heightened law enforcement and increases • Experiencing crime often has a lasting the cost of doing business, thereby negatively negative psychological impact on the impacting on productivity. 18 www.blogs.worldbank.org/africacan/tanzania-lets-think-together TA N Z A N I A L E T ’ S T H I N K TO G E T H E R | Crime and violence have multiple causes, and no All of this raises the following questions: easy solutions. However, providing employment • Is crime a major problem in Tanzania? For opportunities for youth, building a reliable families? For business? police and judicial system are key. Unfortunately, • What is the most effective response to Tanzanians who fall victims to crime seem not to crime? Increased effective law enforcement? go to the police: Preventive measures, such as community • In 2008/09, almost 85 per cent of crime campaigns and support to youth at risk? (and attempted crime) incidents that • Why are most crimes not reported to the households experienced were not reported police? Lack of con�dence? Perceptions of to the police. corruption? • Despite this fact, households reported a loss • Does the police have the necessary human of Sh220 billion, amounting to almost one and �nancial resources to �ght crime? per cent of total GDP. • When crime incidents have been reported to Note: The statistics above are based on the the Police it typically leads to a dead-end. 80 2008/09 and 2010/11 National Panel Surveys per cent of households reporting an offense and Afrobarometer reports. Data from these claim that the Police was unable to interview sources is publicly available and results can be or arrest any suspects. replicated. READER COMMENTS If crimes can cost Tanzania as much as the stated percentage of GDP, it is a cause for concern. Why report crime when the police will likely succumb to the allure of lucrative bribes? We have a culture that tolerates this behaviour and culprits are often well-known. Perhaps if we found our young boys and girls, especially the at-risk youths, something productive to do the rates would fall. 19 www.blogs.worldbank.org/africacan/tanzania-lets-think-together TA N Z A N I A L E T ’ S T H I N K TO G E T H E R | 9 Corruption is a concern for Tanzanians Fighting or eradicating corruption is a recurrent theme for politicians all over the world. The need for such efforts unfortunately exist almost everywhere. 20 www.blogs.worldbank.org/africacan/tanzania-lets-think-together TA N Z A N I A L E T ’ S T H I N K TO G E T H E R | However, too few countries have implemented The survey also provides a ranking of the most suf�cient and policies/actions to effectively corrupt public services as perceived by Tanzanian �ght corruption. In Tanzania, the government households. The three top offenders are alleged has taken a number of important steps in this to be: direction, and there have been open discussions • The police force and traf�c force (as about doing more. perceived by 88.7 and 85. 6 per cent of respondents) Several oversight institutions were created over • The Judiciary (86.3 per cent) the years and perform important and useful • The Health sector (84.9 percent) roles. More recently, six Ministers were ousted in Corruption is not only pervasive in public May 2012, and the Board of the Tanzania Ports services; it also affects the quality of services Authority was �red on suspicion of corruption and the public’s trust in the Law of the Land. in early 2013. Such developments are welcome For 95 and 91 per cent of households, the police since the vast majority of Tanzanians perceive force and courts are seen to be delivering poor corruption as a major issue and as a widespread services. And almost two out of three citizens practice in public institutions. It is also perceived report that corruption makes them less inclined by most as a key bottleneck in the country’s to follow the law. quest for accelerated and equitable growth. These statistics raise a number of questions: The 2009 National Governance and Corruption • Do you think that corruption is increasing or Survey reveals that: decreasing in Tanzania? • Corruption is perceived as a major issue by • Is corruption caused by economic motives 88 per cent of respondents, almost at the and/or ethical issues? same level as the high cost of living (91 • Should honesty be taught at home? In per cent), and of higher signi�cance than school? unemployment (85 per cent) and the cost • Can corruption be reduced without of health services (76 per cent). sanctions? • The most important perceived forms • Does corruption reflect other issues such as of corruption are the demand for illegal low public wages or excessive regulations? �nancial transactions (94 per cent) followed • What is the role of Government, partners, by demand for sex (43 per cent) and abuse civil Society in the �ght against corruption? of power (33 per cent). • About 40 per cent of surveyed households Source: 2009 National Governance and report to have paid a bribe to a civil servant Corruption Survey at one point or other. 21 www.blogs.worldbank.org/africacan/tanzania-lets-think-together TA N Z A N I A L E T ’ S T H I N K TO G E T H E R | 10 Who are your political leaders? There are many levels of political leadership in Tanzania including district, village and ward chairpersons, councillors, executives, etc. They all have considerable powers and responsibilities in the decentralized delivery of basic social services such as education, health, and water. 22 www.blogs.worldbank.org/africacan/tanzania-lets-think-together TA N Z A N I A L E T ’ S T H I N K TO G E T H E R | In addition to these, they also play a key role 14 per cent for the national average. Another in land management since large tracts of land difference is related to the quantity of land still fall under the responsibility of villages in owned by local political leaders. On average Tanzania. they were reported to own 275 hectares vs. two hectares for the national average. So who are the local political leaders? In 2010/11, it was found that local political leaders, on These characteristics of local leaders raise a average, are: number of questions: • About 45 years old, which is much older • Is experience or age an asset for local than the rest of the population (averaging politicians? 25 years). • What can be done to reduce the gender bias • Three times more likely to have attained a against women in local politics? secondary school education (40 against 12 • Is land ownership a cause or a consequence per cent for the national average). of political power? • More likely to be men, with only one out of • To what extent does the �nancial wealth 10 local politicians being a woman. Elected associated with most local politicians women are on average younger, more influence policy-making, notably in land educated, and more likely to be af�liated to management? an opposition party. • Local politicians are also more likely to Note: The statistics above are computed using show signs of wealth than the rest of the data from the 2010/11 National Panel Survey. population. About 60 per cent of them Data from this survey are publicly available and report owning a bank account against only results can be readily replicated. 23 www.blogs.worldbank.org/africacan/tanzania-lets-think-together TA N Z A N I A L E T ’ S T H I N K TO G E T H E R | Labor / Private Sector / Financial Services 11. Getting more children into secondary school and university.......... 25 12. We want jobs, jobs, jobs ........................................................................ 27 13. Youth: a growing uneducated labor force.......................................... 30 14. Across the universe of �rms ................................................................. 33 15. What do we know about wages? .......................................................... 34 16. Where in the world are they? ................................................................ 36 17. Is this a woman’s world? ........................................................................ 38 18. The power of commercial lending: Myth or reality? ......................... 40 19. Who is being served by a bank? ............................................................41 20. A bank in the pocket .............................................................................. 43 24 www.blogs.worldbank.org/africacan/tanzania-lets-think-together 11 TA N Z A N I A L E T ’ S T H I N K TO G E T H E R | Getting more children into secondary school and university Over the past decade Tanzania has achieved notable progress in increasing access to post-primary education with the number of enrolled students at secondary level increasing ten-fold from 210,000 to 2.1 million between 1995 and 2011. 25 www.blogs.worldbank.org/africacan/tanzania-lets-think-together TA N Z A N I A L E T ’ S T H I N K TO G E T H E R | Yet, despite this accomplishment, secondary, education undermines Tanzania’s plans to and especially tertiary education, remain beyond develop a skilled workforce, raise salaries the reach of most Tanzanians, and enrollment and productivity as well as achieve economic rates still lag behind other countries: diversi�cation. • Tanzania’s gross secondary enrollment rate Equally worrisome is the fact that secondary of 33 per cent in 2011 is below the sub- learning outcomes have been deteriorating over Saharan average of 39 per cent and even time. Student performance in the Certi�cate of further behind Asian countries such as India Secondary Education Examinations (CSEE) at (67 per cent), Indonesia (79 per cent) or the end of Form IV has declined signi�cantly, China (81 per cent). with pass rates in mathematics falling from 18 • Only a handful of students in Tanzania to 9 per cent between 2009 and 2012, and in continue their education at the University science from 52 to 33 per cent. level: Gross tertiary enrollment was just This casts doubt over whether secondary three per cent in 2011, behind Uganda schools are equipping their students with the (9 per cent) and Ghana (12 per cent) and skills they need to attain quality jobs and to drive much lower than in China (26 per cent). innovation and entrepreneurship. The comparatively small number of enrollments All of this raises a number of questions: in secondary schools and universities shows that • What are the main factors preventing poor access to post-primary education continues to families from enrolling children in secondary be very unequal, favoring children, particularly school? Poor accessibility? Fees and other boys, from wealthier families living in urban costs? Lack of awareness? areas: • Why are boys more likely to attend secondary • While the two poorest population quintiles schools than girls? contributed 42 per cent of total primary • Should the Government undertake enrollments, they accounted for only 20 initiatives to drive up tertiary enrollments? per cent of lower secondary and 13 per Or should the emphasis be on the primary cent of upper secondary enrollments in and secondary education sub-sectors? 2010/11. There were virtually no university enrollments from poor families. • How do you explain the poor learning outcomes at the secondary level? What can • Children in urban areas are twice as likely to be done about it? attend secondary school as children living in rural areas. Note: The statistics above are based on the • Girls are disadvantaged: In 2009, only 37 per 2010/11 Tanzania National Panel Survey (NPS), cent of girls who completed the �nal primary the World Development Indicators (WDI), the school grade entered secondary school the World Bank Education Statistics Database, following year, compared to 45 per cent of and examination results of the National boys. Examinations Council of Tanzania (NECTA). All data are publicly available. Low and unequal access to post-primary 26 www.blogs.worldbank.org/africacan/tanzania-lets-think-together 12 TA N Z A N I A L E T ’ S T H I N K TO G E T H E R | We want jobs, jobs, jobs Jobs are at the very heart of living. Families escape poverty when their members secure gainful employment, and societies flourish when labor markets offer a wide range of job opportunities to citizens. And there is more to jobs than just monetary bene�ts. Not having a job or working under unfavorable conditions is often associated with low individual life satisfaction. 27 www.blogs.worldbank.org/africacan/tanzania-lets-think-together TA N Z A N I A L E T ’ S T H I N K TO G E T H E R | Youth unemployment, in particular, can seven times more likely to receive a salary undermine the foundations of social cohesion, than those with secondary education and especially in fragile countries with a legacy of primary education respectively. civil unrest and conflict. • Men are more than twice as likely to be As with most of sub-Saharan Africa, Tanzania has wage workers as women, while women are high male and female labor force participation. almost twice as likely to be hired as unpaid family workers. • For instance, 97 percent of men and 92 percent of women aged 25 to 59 years are • There are also wide earnings disparities economically active. Tanzania thus ranks as – with a median wage of Sh30,000 per one of the countries with the highest female week, men earn twice as much as women labor force participation worldwide. (Sh15,000 per week). • Open unemployment is low, at just one The youth seem to be hardest hit by the lack percent of the labor force. of employment especially in urban areas. In Dar-es-Salaam, 57,000 youth between 15 and These aggregate employment statistics mean 24 years are unemployed, corresponding to an that almost all Tanzanian adults do work, while unemployment rate of 16 percent. Across the in developed countries only 82 percent of adults country, 183,000 youth are without a job. are economically active. In Tanzania, like in other developing countries, most people cannot Of course, the reality is more complex than afford not to work. There is no unemployment suggested by these simple statistics. The rural insurance and sources of income are minimal. As population is migrating to bene�t from the a result, most Tanzanians do any job even if it emerging labor market opportunities in cities does not pay enough to make ends meet. and towns. Women may prefer self-employment to wage work because it gives them flexibility The following statistics emphasize that many to combine economic activity with caring for workers are only employed part-time or are children. And there is nothing wrong with the con�ned in non-wage informal activities, and notion that education determines access to well- there are still large disparities between men and paying jobs, as long as the education system women: itself is merit-based and inclusive. • Underemployment is pervasive in rural areas Yet, the evidence above suggests that labor as people spend on average only 27 hours market opportunities for many Tanzanians per week on farm work which is the main are limited, and so are their chances to lift activity for 80 percent of them. themselves out of poverty and to increase their • People with tertiary education are twice and living conditions. 28 www.blogs.worldbank.org/africacan/tanzania-lets-think-together TA N Z A N I A L E T ’ S T H I N K TO G E T H E R | • Is it true that most Tanzanians are underemployed especially in rural areas? READER COMMENTS • What skills and quali�cations do Tanzanians need to access non-agricultural jobs? Is We need thinking outside the box: the education system geared up for this Education should be free, but at the challenge? same time not everyone is entitled to • Should government directly hire or go to a university. Children who are not provide incentive to �rms to promote the smart enough or are just not interested employment of youth? in book-learning should be taught trades early on so they can go on to vocational • Should government support the private schools. sector to create more jobs? How so? • Are women discriminated in the labor market I seriously think that what should or are they making voluntary choices? What engage the attention of Africans is is the impact of traditional gender roles what type of education we want and regarding care-giving and domestic chores? not whether or not it should be free. Why do we have so many unemployed • Should Tanzania build its development graduates? One major reason is that strategy around economic growth or around most of the graduates do not possess employment creation? the skills required by industry; in fact, Note: The statistics above are based on the the colonial educational philosophy has 2010/11 National Panel Survey and the ILO’s not been changed. Economically Active Population, Estimates and Projections database. All sources are publicly available. 29 www.blogs.worldbank.org/africacan/tanzania-lets-think-together 13 TA N Z A N I A L E T ’ S T H I N K TO G E T H E R | Youth: a growing uneducated labor force In Africa, the number of youths (aged 14 to 25 years) has grown signi�cantly over the past decade. An old adage calls on us to recognize that ’the youth of today are the leaders of tomorrow.’ Indeed, countries do well when they invest in a strong, healthy, well educated, dynamic and innovative youth. 30 www.blogs.worldbank.org/africacan/tanzania-lets-think-together TA N Z A N I A L E T ’ S T H I N K TO G E T H E R | Below is a portrait of youth in Tanzania: 44.4 percent, 46.4 percent, 29.1 percent, and 22.9 per cent in Greece, Spain, Italy and France • Youth represent roughly 18 per cent of the respectively in 2011. total population and this share remained stable between 1990 and 2010. These Although youth unemployment in Tanzania is �gures are comparable for Uganda and low on average, employed youth usually hold Senegal but above the trends in emerging only precarious jobs in the agricultural sector, and developed countries where the share of without any formal contracts or bene�ts. They youth declined from 15 per cent in 1990 to are also more prone to unemployment in urban 12 per cent in 2010. areas, and paradoxically, when they are more educated. • In absolute numbers, Tanzania’s youth population almost doubled from 4.4 million • About 75 per cent of employed youths are in 1990 to 8.1 million in 2010. It is expected active in the agriculture sector, and only 6.7 to swell to 11 million by 2020 and 15 million per cent hold public sector wage jobs. by 2030. • A youth in Dar es Salaam is more than • Young people accounted for 28 per cent six times (13 per cent) more likely to be of the labor force in 2010 – constituting a unemployed than a rural youth (two per formidable presence compared to developed cent). countries. • More than 20 per cent of youths with • About two out of three youths in Tanzania secondary education in Dar es Salaam are were active in the labor market in 2010/11, unemployed while this �gure stood at a similar to the rate in Uganda. staggering 56 per cent for Zanzibar. • Notably, the youth unemployment rate is The poor quality of jobs held by Tanzanian youth fairly low in Tanzania, having decreased are to a large extent determined by a low level of from 8.7 per cent in 2000/01 to 8.2 per cent education attainment. in 2006 and standing at just 4.7 per cent in Of the approximately 900,000 youths (15 - 2010/11. 24-years) that entered the labor market in Consequently, Tanzania would appear less 2010/11: 14 per cent did not complete primary likely to suffer the risks related to the youth school; 44 per cent �nished their primary but unemployment ’time bomb’ faced by many did not continue to secondary; an additional 38 European countries. per cent went to secondary but did not reach or �nish Form IV, and a mere 4 per cent went For example, youth unemployment reached 31 www.blogs.worldbank.org/africacan/tanzania-lets-think-together 1 TA N Z A N I A L E T ’ S T H I N K TO G E T H E R | beyond O-level. Many of these are unlikely to �nd • Should �rms hire more youth? Should a good paying job as they did not acquire the apprenticeships be encouraged? necessary skills to create and grow a successful • Should the government invest more in enterprise. secondary and higher education? All these facts raise a number of questions: • Do schools provide the skills needed by the • Does the high unemployment rate of the labor force? Should more emphasis be given urban and educated youth constitute a risk to technical and vocational training schools? to Tanzania’s social stability? Note: The statistics above are based on the • Is the prevalent lack of education among the 2010/11 National Panel Survey, Demographic youth a time bomb for Tanzania? and Health Surveys for different countries, and Eurostat. All are publicly available. READER COMMENTS Idle, dissatis�ed, educated, urbanized youth and quality of education and health service are the fuel which fed the flame of the Arab delivery by encouraging non-state providers. Spring. The breakdown of the social compact is the �rst casualty of rising aspirations. The The nation should have straight forward much anticipated gas economy will greatly priorities which would create jobs. For enhance this problem. A related problem is sure sustainable agriculture would end escapism through the increased use of drugs unemployment to the serious society as there and increased crime rate. This vicious cycle is a ready market for agricultural produces can only be broken by increasing the number worldwide. Government should be more of desirable, formal sector, productive jobs careful when investing in education. It is better through meaningful growth. to have few schools (600 schools) which are well equipped with modern equipment, Possibly it is also time to moderate the superb infrastructure and renowned and ’youth bulge‘ by (i) mobilizing socially to committed teachers than having more than increase the age at which girls get married; 3,000 overcrowded secondary schools with (ii) advocate that small families are happy dilapidated infrastructure with very few families and (iii) enlarge the access to frustrated teachers. 32 www.blogs.worldbank.org/africacan/tanzania-lets-think-together 14 TA N Z A N I A L E T ’ S T H I N K TO G E T H E R | Across the universe of �rms In industrial countries, small and medium �rms are the vectors of economic innovation and job creation. In the USA, small-businesses account for almost two- thirds of all net new job creation. They also contribute disproportionately to be located in urban areas, young, family-oriented, innovation, generating 13 times as many patents, and operating on non-fulltime basis as reported in per employee, as large companies do. Small the statistics below. business owners are also in general more educated • Urban: Almost half of non-farm enterprises and wealthier than the rest of the active population. (excluding mining) are located in urban areas. The reality is different in Tanzania. The vast Out of these urban businesses, one third is in majority of �rms are very small and predominantly Dar es Salaam while the remaining two thirds con�ned to self-employment. They are also highly are in other cities and towns. concentrated in agriculture and trading activities: • Young: A quarter of non-farm enterprises • In 2010/11, there were approximately 11 report to be younger than one year and two- million family-owned businesses operating in thirds of them are less than �ve years old. Tanzania, including farms. This is equivalent • Family business: Approximately 90 per cent to a rate of entrepreneurship of 40 percent, of non-farm enterprises use exclusively which is about the rate reported in Uganda household workers. and Ghana, but three and 10 times higher, • No full-time: On average, non-farm respectively, than in the United States and enterprises are operating eight months per France. year. Partial activities are especially visible • Half of the �rms operating in Tanzania have with trade and transports. only one employee, typically the owner; while This snapshot of the operating enterprises in an additional 40 percent report less than �ve Tanzania raises a set of strategic questions: employees. Firms with more than 10 workers • Can small, young, and non-specialized �rms represent only 0.6 per cent of the �rms’ create enough (decent) employment for universe (still almost 70,000). Tanzanians? • About 55 percent of �rms are involved in agriculture, followed by trading (30 percent), • Does the high entrepreneurships rate reflect and manufacturing (5.5 per cent). Businesses the lack of employment opportunities in the operating in specialized sectors, such as formal labor market? information and technology or professional • To what extent can urbanization help generate services, account for only 1 per cent of total more dynamic and productive �rms? �rms. • Does the importance of family/household The breakdown between farms and other �rms business represent an obstacle to innovation provides a more precise picture of the business and experimentation? reality in Tanzania as of 2010/11. Farms are in Source: National Panel Survey, 2010/11 and general bigger, older, and more likely to use non- http://www.internationalentrepreneurship.com/ family workers. total-entrepreneurial-activity. All are publicly By contrast, non-farm enterprises are more likely to available. 33 www.blogs.worldbank.org/africacan/tanzania-lets-think-together 15 TA N Z A N I A L E T ’ S T H I N K TO G E T H E R | What do we know about wages? How much a worker earns for her or his labor is important for different reasons. First, it matters with regard to poverty since labor income counts usually for an important share of household revenue. Secondly, it influences �rms’ competitiveness, especially for labor intensive activities such as manufacturing and agriculture. Thirdly, it is relevant for equity as anybody should expect a fair remuneration for his efforts. 34 www.blogs.worldbank.org/africacan/tanzania-lets-think-together TA N Z A N I A L E T ’ S T H I N K TO G E T H E R | It is therefore not surprising that wages have • Is the average private wage suf�cient to lift attracted a lot of attention from economists and Tanzanian households out of poverty? policy makers across the world over the years. • Do low private wages reflect the low productivity or an excess of supply of In Tanzania, only one third of workers report workers (fueled by the rapid population earning a wage for their labor. However, this growth)? number is growing relatively fast, especially in • Should wages be automatically adjusted in urban areas. A look at the statistics collected line with the inflation rate? from the Tanzanian private sector highlights • Are public employees paid too much three interesting results: compared to private workers even if they are • The average wage in the private sector more educated (two thirds of them report was about Sh78,000 per month (or US$ having secondary education against 12 per 45) in 2011, which was barely above the cent for the rest of the population)? subsistence level • To what extent do the recent increases in • Between 2000 and 2011, labor earnings real public wages reflect higher bargaining multiplied by approximately 60 percent, ability or productivity gains? after adjusting for inflation Note: The statistics above are based on the • Real wages declined by almost 10 per cent from 2008/9 and 2010/11 National Panel Survey, 2008 to 2011, possibly reflecting a slowdown in the 2000 Household Budget Survey the 2006 demand for labor by private �rms. Integrated Labor Force Survey, and the IMF’s The situation of wage workers in the private World Economic Outlook Database (October 2012 version). Data from these sources are sector can be compared to that of civil servants. publicly available and results can be readily This comparison reveals that public employees replicated. not only earned on average 3.4 times more than private employees in 2011 but they have also not READER COMMENTS witnessed a decline in their real wages during It’s absolutely true that most Tanzanians are the recent years. underemployed particularly in rural areas. On the contrary, real public wages have risen by The government should make it easier to do 32 per cent between 2008 and 2011. business so investors can come in and create jobs. We should also focus on agriculture and If the wage premium in favor of public employees agro processing. reflects their higher level of education, it is more dif�cult to explain why the gap between private The public and the private sector should form and public wages doubled from 1.7 in 2000 to an honest alliance to build the capacity of 3.3 in 2011. the rural poor to invest in commodity value chains. Then each partner should work hard These statistical observations point to the to connect commodity value chain producers following questions: and processors to reliable markets. 35 www.blogs.worldbank.org/africacan/tanzania-lets-think-together 16 TA N Z A N I A L E T ’ S T H I N K TO G E T H E R | Where in the world are they? Moving abroad is often motivated by the prospect of better education, employment and other opportunities. In turn, migrants contribute to the development of their home country by sending remittances or by returning and putting their improved knowledge and skills to effective use. 36 www.blogs.worldbank.org/africacan/tanzania-lets-think-together TA N Z A N I A L E T ’ S T H I N K TO G E T H E R | Thanks to the increasing number of migrants Why are Tanzanians less likely to live outside their and lower transactions costs, total remittances country than the average Sub-Sahara African? received by countries in sub-Saharan Africa Why does the average Tanzanian migrant send reached US$325 billion in 2010. This is equivalent 20 times less money than other sub-Saharan to the total amount of of�cial aid received African migrants? annually by those countries. • Could it be due to dif�culty in getting a Tanzania appears to be the outlier in this picture. passport? On average, Tanzanians are �ve times less likely • Do most households lack �nancial resources than other sub-Saharan Africans to migrate to a to �nance a trip abroad? foreign country. • Is international migration constrained by This can be seen, for instance, in the remittances the lack of education? Is the low English in 2010 by Tanzanians abroad which amounted to pro�ciency an obstacle? US$17 million or 0.08 percent of total remittances • Is patriotism or appreciation of life in on the continent in that year. Uganda and Kenya Tanzania preventing people from living received in that same year US$773 million and abroad? US$1,758 respectively as remittances from their • Are most Tanzanian migrants engaged in citizens abroad. low-paying jobs from which they do not If Tanzanians are not migrating abroad, they are earn enough to send more remittances moving within the country. more regularly? Yet, international and domestic migrations differ Source: National Panel Survey 2008-09 and in important ways as shown in the statistics 2011 Migrations and Remittances Factbook below: • 1.2 per cent of Tanzanian households have one of their members living in a foreign READER COMMENTS country. • About 40 per cent of households have one Many of those Tanzanians that received member living in another community within state-sponsored education during socialism the country. felt a sense of loyalty to their country that is why many came back home after • Only 40 per cent of migrants send completing their studies abroad. This sense remittances irrespective of their location. of patriotism still pervades daily life and it • Domestic migrants sent on average could explain why Tanzanians are less likely Sh21,500 against Sh41,000 for international to settle outside their country than other migrants in 2010 sub-Saharan nationals • The number of international migrants with tertiary education is proportionally 10 times higher than for domestic migrants. 37 www.blogs.worldbank.org/africacan/tanzania-lets-think-together 17 TA N Z A N I A L E T ’ S T H I N K TO G E T H E R | Is this a woman’s world? Tanzanian families have been doing things differently of late. More of them have been sending their daughters to primary school and more women have become heads of households with increasing �nancial responsibilities. Increasingly too, more women are involved in the political arena today. 38 www.blogs.worldbank.org/africacan/tanzania-lets-think-together TA N Z A N I A L E T ’ S T H I N K TO G E T H E R | These trends can also be found in most political elite from the district level and countries around the world but they are below. especially visible in Tanzania as reflected by • In 2010, 33 per cent of Tanzanian women these recent statistics. reported they had been subjected to • Girl’s primary school attendance increased physical domestic violence (in the previous from 60 per cent to over 83 per cent 12 months) compared to 25.1 per cent in between 2000/2001 and 2010/2011. Kenya and 14.5 per cent in Malawi. • Women today own 47 per cent of non- agricultural household enterprises in the The fate of women in Tanzania raises some country. questions: • More than a third of Parliamentary seats are • Should promoting gender equality be a occupied by women – at par with Uganda priority for the Tanzanian government? (35 per cent) and far ahead of Kenya (9.8 • Should speci�c programmes be per cent.) implemented to support businesses owned • Women count for 35 per cent of wage by women? employment in the country. • What is contributing to the high incidence of gender violence in Tanzania? This is good news because women’s • Should policies to encourage girls’ empowerment is bene�cial for a country’s quest secondary school enrolment be put in for prosperity. place, for example, providing �nancial Indeed, when women have a say in household incentives to families? and political decisions, have better access to education, and have access to better earning • What can be done to increase the opportunities this generally results in healthier participation of women in local politics? and better educated children Note: The statistics are extracted from the National Panel Surveys (2008/2009 and Yet, many Tanzanian women still suffer from 2010/2011), the 2010 Demographic and Health discrimination and its effects compared to men: Survey, the Uwezo 2011 report and the World’s • While about 41 per cent of girls transition Women 2010 report. All are publicly available. to secondary school education, only 3 per cent complete the cycle. READER COMMENTS • Salaries paid to women are on average 63 per cent lower than those paid to men. • When women own businesses, they make Before deciding on what to invest in for 2.4 times less pro�t than men. more gender equity, the Government needs • Women represent only 10 per cent of the to investigate the factors affecting girls’ education, women’s enterprises, etc. 39 www.blogs.worldbank.org/africacan/tanzania-lets-think-together 18 TA N Z A N I A L E T ’ S T H I N K TO G E T H E R | The power of commercial lending: Myth or reality? Banks play a critical role in economic development, as success stories are dif�cult to �nd without a big increase in commercial lending over time. Countries like Korea, Malaysia and China saw their credit to GDP ratio surge by 40 percentage points during the 1990s. On the African continent, similar stories are emerging in Cape Verde, Senegal and Nigeria, though arguably at a lower rate than in Asia. Tanzania’s �nancial sector has been growing reveals that: rapidly over the past few years, almost doubling • Trade, personal services, and manufacturing size between 2006 and 2012. As a result of the counted for almost two-thirds of total good performance of the national economy and domestic lending by commercial banks at the the gradual liberalization of the �nancial sector, end of 2012. there are today 45 commercial banks, local- • The share of agriculture and construction and foreign-owned, competing for costumers. of total lending was only 15.5 per cent in This growth has translated into higher lending December 2012, signi�cantly lower than their activities as reflected in the following statistics: contribution to national GDP (almost 30 per • Total banking credit surged from 11.3 per cent). cent of GDP in 2006 to over 24 per cent in • Commercial loans to the electricity as well as 2011. This last ratio is still below the regional education and health sectors increased by average of approximately 45 per cent of GDP 103 and 80 per cent between 2011 and 2012 and far from the level achieved by Kenya (52 (but represented only 6.5 per cent of total per cent). lending at end-December 2012). • The recent increase in lending activities is partly the result of higher borrowing by the The following questions may help inform the Government, which grew by 5.5 percent policy debate about the role of commercial banks of GDP between 2006 and 2011, and now in Tanzania’s quest for economic emergence: accounts for almost 20 percent of total credit • To what extent can commercial banks in the economy. contribute to economic development in • Private credit expanded from 12.9 per cent of Tanzania? GDP in 2006 to 20.3 per cent in 2011. • Will the growing competition between commercial lenders bene�t customers? Domestic banks almost doubled their lending to public non-�nancial institutions between 2008 • Can the rapid expansion of commercial and 2012. By contrast, the credit allocated by the lending endanger the stability of the domestic �nancial system to the central and local domestic �nancial system? governments has remained modest at only 1.2 • Is there a risk that a rapid increase in public percent of total credits at the end of 2012. borrowing could crowd out private lending? At the sector level, the allocation of total credit Source: Bank of Tanzania and World Bank’s World Development indicators. 40 www.blogs.worldbank.org/africacan/tanzania-lets-think-together 19 TA N Z A N I A L E T ’ S T H I N K TO G E T H E R | Who is being served by a bank? Access to credit for businesses is critical for private sector development, employment and ultimately economic growth. Individuals seek credit could to set up new enterprises or increase the performance of existing ones by, for example, buying new equipment or hiring more people. 41 www.blogs.worldbank.org/africacan/tanzania-lets-think-together TA N Z A N I A L E T ’ S T H I N K TO G E T H E R | In Tanzania, there has been a notable but and less than 30 percent of these loans were unequal increase in access to banking services provided by commercial banks. and/or credit over the past decade. With more The poor have to rely on their friends, relatives, than 30 banks operating in the country today, and micro-�nance institutions. Yet, the poor are there is a higher likelihood than before of a as likely as the non-poor to use their loan for household in Magomeni or a business in Ilala investing in their business. owning a bank account. Indeed 36 percent of the poor purchase On the other hand, it remains very unlikely for a agricultural or other business inputs with their member of a poor household in rural Rukwa to loans versus 41 percent for the non-poor. have signed a bank slip of any kind in her lifetime. • If the poor had more access to loans would More precisely: they invest more and create new businesses? • The share of households with a bank • Should commercial banks take more risks account increased from 8 percent in 2004 and lend to the poor? to 15 percent in 2010. • How can banks be commercially viable in • Access to a bank account was very unequal remote areas? with only 4 percent of the rural population owning one versus 21 percent of the urban • Should the State take on the responsibility of population in 2004. creating its own bank or should it rather �nd market-based mechanisms to �ll the gap in • This increase in bank accounts bene�tted poor areas? almost exclusively the urban population, owning who had 39 percent of the bank • Are micro-�nance institutions the way for accounts in 2010 against only 7 percent of the future? the rural population. • Will mobile phone companies take over and • The poor remain excluded since only 0.1 lend to the poor? percent of the poorest 60 percent of the Note: The statistics above are computed using population reported owning a bank account the 2004 and 2010 Demographic and Health in 2004. This �gure went up to only 1.1 Surveys and the 2008/09 Tanzania National percent in 2010. Panel Survey. Data from these surveys are Having a bank account does not necessarily publicly available and results can be readily mean access to credit. In 2009, only 9 percent replicated. of Tanzanian households were able to get a loan 42 www.blogs.worldbank.org/africacan/tanzania-lets-think-together 20 TA N Z A N I A L E T ’ S T H I N K TO G E T H E R | A bank in the pocket The mobile phone is a truly novel device. Whether we need Increasingly, people around the world, especially to communicate about the in Africa, are paying their school fees, healthcare serious things or to chat about and utility bills using mobile phones today. the simpler things, it always Businesses use mobile money phones to pay comes in handy. Mobiles are their staff and suppliers. Poor people who have not only being used as radios never entered a bank are using mobile services and flashlights but they are also to send or receive remittances and to save their delivering banking and �nancial money. services to those who urgently ‘Mobile money’, as it has been dubbed, is need them. growing at an amazing pace on the continent and at an even faster rate in East Africa as shown by the following statistics for Tanzania: 43 www.blogs.worldbank.org/africacan/tanzania-lets-think-together TA N Z A N I A L E T ’ S T H I N K TO G E T H E R | • The total number of registered mobile out of it. At the other end of the spectrum, customers surged from 14,000 in June 2008, small innovators have also been coming up with to 19.4 million in November 2011, to 20.4 new products, targeting new consumers or million in November 2012. developing new ways to do business. • Money stored in mobile accounts increased All these developments raise a number of from Sh3 billion in June 2009 to Sh157.8 questions: billion in November 2012. • Do you agree that mobile phones provide a • The number of monthly transactions revolutionary form of banking in Tanzania? increased from 1.9 million in 2010 to 48 Are they a threat or a complement to million in September 2012. traditional banking? • The value of transactions increased from • To what extent does the rapid rise of mobile Sh1.4 million in 2007 to Sh1.8 billion in 2010, banking present risks, say with regard to to Sh1.7 trillion in 2012. For the month of increased money laundering, identity theft, September 2012 alone, the value of mobile consumer vulnerability and/or other ways? money transactions in Tanzania was about 14 • Will mobile money help reduce the gap percent of total deposits held by commercial between the rich and the poor? banks. • Should mobile money transfers cross Mobile money was used by one out of four borders? Will it help deepen regional households in Tanzania in 2011. This is much integration? lower than in Kenya (73 percent) but signi�cantly • Should mobile money be more tightly higher than middle-income countries like Brazil regulated? Would over-regulation slow and Argentina (only 1 percent). or halt the mobile revolution and hurt However, its use varies according to certain economic growth? household characteristics. Note: The statistics above are based on the • Those in the richest quintile are 15 times Bank of Tanzania’s monetary policy statements, more likely to have used mobile money than the 2010/11 National Panel Survey, and a 2012 those in the poorest quintile UNTCAD report. All are publicly available. • A person who has completed secondary education school is 15 times more likely to READER COMMENTS have used mobile money than someone without primary education. The use of mobile money enables users to save time. This is especially so if you • Business owners and wage earners are �ve consider that formal banks are still available times more likely to have used mobile money in fewer areas than would be ideal and than subsistence farmers. these tend to have long queues that • Mobile money users are �ve times more discourage potential clients. likely to have a bank account. It will take you more than half an hour to The fantastic growth of mobile money has been send money in formal banks, in addition to attracting many investors. ’Big’ communication some paperwork that maybe required, while companies and commercial banks are jumping you can do the same in a minute through on this bandwagon, sometimes entering into the phone and from anywhere. strategic alliances in order to get make the most 44 www.blogs.worldbank.org/africacan/tanzania-lets-think-together TA N Z A N I A L E T ’ S T H I N K TO G E T H E R | Agriculture / Food / Rural / Environment 21. Plenty of fertile land but low agricultural productivity ........................46 22. Land of opportunity: Is large-scale farming the way to go?................47 23. Land ownership and rights in Tanzania .................................................49 24. Why farmers aren’t selling their produce ..............................................51 25. Where is my cow? .......................................................................................53 26. Consumption patterns: Food but almost nothing else .........................99 27. How much are Tanzanians paying for their food? .................................57 28. Use, don’t abuse Tanzania’s forests .........................................................59 45 www.blogs.worldbank.org/africacan/tanzania-lets-think-together 21 TA N Z A N I A L E T ’ S T H I N K TO G E T H E R | Plenty of fertile land but low agricultural productivity pesticides (9 per cent) remains marginal (source: Agricultural Census 2007/8). As a country blessed with large tracts of land, fertile soils, good rains and diverse agro-climatic conditions, Tanzania should be able to get more from its agricultural sector – the most direct way to reduce rural poverty and to improve food security. Some regions and farmers have however shown that it’s possible to get to higher productivity levels. In Muheza and Tarime districts, for instance, the maize yields are more than twice Eight out of 10 Tanzanians live in a as high as the national average or close to levels household whose primary activity reported in Vietnam, and Malaysia. is agriculture. But according to the Are those farmers doing something right or are Food and Agriculture Organization they simply bene�ting from exceptional climatic (FAO), their average productivity conditions? (as measured by maize yield – the • Are they using more and better inputs? staple crop) is 5.4 times lower • Do they receive vouchers and subsidies? than in Argentina or 2.8 times • Are they better connected by roads to lower than in Vietnam. Perhaps markets? more surprising, it is almost half • Are they able to commercialize their harvest? of the yield currently reported by • Do they export? Mali and Zambia. Note: All the statistics presented are computed using international and national of�cial sources Many Tanzanian households are still using hand such as from FAO and the 2007/8 Tanzania hoes to till their land; only 3.2 per cent of land Agricultural Sample Census Report. Those are is irrigated; and the use of tractors (3 per cent) publicly available and all statistics can be readily or other inputs such as high yield variety seeds replicated. (17 per cent), chemical fertilizers (7 per cent), 46 www.blogs.worldbank.org/africacan/tanzania-lets-think-together 22 TA N Z A N I A L E T ’ S T H I N K TO G E T H E R | Land of opportunity: Is large-scale farming the way to go? Like most developing countries, more than 80 percent of the poor in Tanzania are to be found in rural areas. Nearly all of them are active in the agriculture sector as laborers or owners of a small piece of land that they cultivate for a living. 47 www.blogs.worldbank.org/africacan/tanzania-lets-think-together TA N Z A N I A L E T ’ S T H I N K TO G E T H E R | In this context, land is a vital asset for food farm households report owning more than 5 security and survival. In parallel, global ha of land compared to only 3 and 4 per cent population growth, rapid urbanization, and in India and Uganda respectively. increases in incomes have resulted in a sharp These facts raise a number of questions: increase in demand for agricultural products worldwide, leading to an expansion of cultivated • Should the government encourage farmers area and leading investors to go out in search of to obtain larger land holdings? new farmland. • Through which channels should big The global search for farmland has intensi�ed in farms help smallholder farmers? Joint sub-Saharan Africa, including Tanzania. infrastructure? Technology transfers? Jobs? Tanzania appears to offer good prospects for the • Is the Tanzanian government, including expansion of the size of farming operations as local authorities, equipped to negotiate and illustrated by the following statistics: handle the needs of larger farmers? • Only about 33 per cent of arable land in this • Will new large farms help resolve rising country is cultivated compared to over 95 unemployment in rural areas and improve per cent for Malawi and Rwanda. Similarly, food security? Ghana, Uganda and Ethiopia have used Note: The statistics above are derived from more than 80 per cent of their arable land. the Tanzania Agricultural Sample Censuses • There is comparably limited land pressure (2002/03 and 2007/08). World Development on Tanzanian farmers since their average Indicators and a 2011 World Bank Report on plot size remained constant at around Farmland. All are publicly available. 2.5 ha between 2003 and 2008. This is in sharp contrast with Uganda where average landholding has diminished by 40 per READER COMMENTS cent largely as the result of demographic pressures. Why should large farms be better than small • Approximately 10 per cent of the farmland farms and why should a higher cultivation remains unused largely because of rate, as measured by occupied arable land, be technological constraints and lack of human preferable? and �nancial capacity. For instance, in The linkages are not as straightforward as 2008 only 18.6 per cent of farms used an the text makes them to be. And wouldn’t it ox, 3.1 per cent a tractor, and 1.5 per cent a be more appropriate to focus discussions be thresher. on empowering farmers in small farms rather • There are already quite a few medium to than on industrial size farms? large farms in Tanzania: about 20 per cent of 48 www.blogs.worldbank.org/africacan/tanzania-lets-think-together 23 TA N Z A N I A L E T ’ S T H I N K TO G E T H E R | Land ownership and rights in Tanzania • The poorest 40 per cent of households own For many families in Tanzania approximately 46 per cent of cultivated land, land is their single most compared to 28 per cent for the richest two important productive asset and quintiles (excluding commercial estates and main livelihood. Three out of plots rented out). four households in the country Within families, there are clear gender patterns are engaged in agriculture, and women are evidently disadvantaged with directly living off the produce respect to land ownership: of their land. And whereas • Only about 15 percent of cultivated land is under sole female ownership against 47 other productive assets, such per cent that is under male ownership and as higher education and capital, 38 per cent under joint ownership, typically are strongly concentrated in husband and wife. the hands of the better-off, • Women own just 23 per cent of cultivated agricultural land is more evenly plots. These tend to be smaller than those distributed: owned by men (1.6 acres vs. 3.3 acres). Gender inequality in land ownership not only • Of the 12 million plots used for agriculture weakens women’s standing within the family production in 2010/11, some 87 per cent and the economy, but can also affect investment were owned by the farming households, patterns and undermine productivity. In addition, signi�cantly more than in Kenya (72 per as in many other parts of Sub-Saharan Africa, cent in 2005/06) or Uganda (77 per cent in most Tanzanian farmers generally do not have 2010/11). legal recognition of their landholdings as most plots are held under customary tenure. • Around nine per cent of farm households in Tanzania do not own any land themselves, • Families claim to have a title for 12 per cent though most of these families have access to of the plots they own, similar to Uganda (14 land they can use for free. Only 3 percent of per cent), but signi�cantly less than in Kenya farm households rely entirely on rented land. (39 per cent). 49 www.blogs.worldbank.org/africacan/tanzania-lets-think-together TA N Z A N I A L E T ’ S T H I N K TO G E T H E R | • However, only about one third of these are All of this raises the following questions: of�cially recognized titles, such as Certi�cates • How important is the issuance of CCROs of Customary Rights of Occupancy (CCROs) for land security and for stimulating land or Granted Rights of Occupancy (GRO). The investment? Should banks accept CCROs as others are semi-formal documents, such collateral? as inheritance letters or letters of allocation • Should there be efforts to develop a rural land from the village government, which do not market? If so, how can this be done while provide full tenure security. assuring protection of household land rights. • The poor are disproportionately affected by • How can women’s land rights be lack of land rights: only 2.7 per cent of plots strengthened? Through mandated issuance owned by the poorest quintile of households of spousal co-ownership? Community have a CCRO or a GRO, compared to 4.8 awareness programs? Better representation percent for the richest quintile. of women in land governing bodies? • How should the grazing rights of pastoralist The high prevalence of customary tenure communities be protected in the context of undermines farmers’ ability to buy and sell land, the stricter declaration and enforcement of and to use their land as collateral for credit. individual property rights? And while there is little evidence to date that customary arrangements go hand in hand with a Note: The statics above are based on the 2010/11 heightened sense of tenure insecurity, this could Tanzania and Uganda National Panel Surveys easily change as population growth increases and the 2005/06 Kenya Integrated Household overall land pressure. Budget Survey. 50 www.blogs.worldbank.org/africacan/tanzania-lets-think-together 24 TA N Z A N I A L E T ’ S T H I N K TO G E T H E R | Why farmers aren’t selling their produce not sell any of their harvest and only 25 per cent of total maize production is marketed. • Uganda and Kenya have similar statistics. On the other hand, Vietnam moved from 48 per cent of crop production being marketed in 1993 to 87 per cent in 2008. The livestock sector is even less commercialized About three out of four than the crop sector. Up to 52 per cent of households report to have livestock owners did not get any cash income agriculture as their main activity. out of their animals in 2011. Some urban households too are Only less than 10 per cent of the overall country involved in crop production. livestock value is marketed. The low rate of commercialization may be Indeed, agriculture is an important sector for explained by many factors such as remoteness, Tanzania, contributing up to 26 per cent of GDP. low production, low farm-gate prices, high Typically, farmers produce to feed their families marketing margins, lack of information, or but they also expect to gain revenues by selling simply farmers’ unwillingness to participate in their output. When farmers make more income the market. from the sale of their produce this leads to more Indeed, less than a third of Tanzanian villages development in the rural areas which impacts have a daily or weekly market where farmers get positively on the overall economy. This is what to sell their produce. For the typical farmer, the has been surmised from the success stories of closest market is 18 kilometers away from the predominantly agricultural countries, such as village center and more often than not there is Malaysia and Vietnam. seldom any road and/or public transportation In Tanzania, this kind of impact has not yet been service to reach that market. felt – at least not on a tangible scale. Agricultural Farm-gate prices received by farmers are a small commercialization remains marginal in the country share of the wholesale price of crops which as shown by the following statistics from 2011: averaged around 60 per cent and 45 per cent for • 26 per cent of all farmers did not sell any maize and paddy respectively in 2011. of their crop produce as they were not The lack in agricultural commercialization raises connected to markets. the following questions: • Only 25 per cent of farmers sold more than • Should the government invest more in half of their produce. infrastructure such as roads, village markets, • More than two thirds of maize farmers did etc., to improve farmers’ connectivity? 51 www.blogs.worldbank.org/africacan/tanzania-lets-think-together TA N Z A N I A L E T ’ S T H I N K TO G E T H E R | • Should there be price controls to ensure • Will the SACGOT initiative help smallholder farmers receive a minimum price from their farmers increase production and get more produce? cash income out of their produce? • Should taxes on agricultural produce be • How can the mobile revolution help improve reduced or abolished altogether? agricultural commercialization? • Can farmers be directly linked to supermarkets, agribusiness �rms Note: The statistics above are computed using and processors bypassing marketing the 2010/11 Tanzania National Panel Survey, and middlemen? the crop wholesale prices from the Ministry of Industry Trade and Marketing. Data from these • Should the emergence and development sources are publicly available and can be readily of contract farming with large farms be replicated encouraged? READER COMMENTS The government should not ban the export any knowledge other than predicting when of cereal especially maize without having the rains fall and then planting to get a any statistics to back up its case on the good harvest. Once the harvest comes, the shortage of maize in the country. In Rukwa, challenge of storage and pests arrives but for example, we saw this ban enforced even the poor farmer will again simply blame the as people were stuck with their maize with evil one... nowhere to sell it, hence subjecting them to enormous post-harvest losses. Government The SAGCOT initiative is certainly also needs to focus on irrigation projects encouraging given its potential to link to reduce the farmers’ dependence on farmers to processors, to input markets, rain which is often unreliable in areas like etc., but complementary policies will also be Rukwa. important to ensure that the bene�ts from SAGCOT are spread more widely beyond Helping smallholder farmers understand the a narrow section of already successful need to sell what they produce cannot be commercial farmers. The combination done just by training the individual farmers, of proper roads and inexpensive mobile as they may not retain what they are taught telephones should give farmers greater and may sometimes consider the training access to buyers in local and global a distraction from their productive work. markets. The government should also Efforts attempting to help the farmers do promote contract farming – it will allow business need to de�ne the product or small holders to take advantage of the commodity and match it with any demand market opportunities available to large scale gaps that the consumer markets may be commercial enterprises. Price controls will facing. not be useful. We also need to stop taxing Rural smallholder farmer does not have farm products. 52 www.blogs.worldbank.org/africacan/tanzania-lets-think-together 25 TA N Z A N I A L E T ’ S T H I N K TO G E T H E R | Where is my cow? About 70 per cent of the world’s 1.4 billion extreme poor rely on livestock to sustain their livelihood, according to the Food and Agricultural Organization. Not only does livestock provide meat and milk for consumption, it also helps increase agricultural productivity through manure which is an organic fertilizer and draft power. 53 www.blogs.worldbank.org/africacan/tanzania-lets-think-together TA N Z A N I A L E T ’ S T H I N K TO G E T H E R | Because it can be readily marketed to generate which Sh572 billion was just from disease. This income, livestock also reduces the vulnerability amount is equivalent to about two per cent of of poor households to external shocks. But this GDP and 8.3 per cent of agricultural GDP. These crucial resource is also susceptible to many risks two plagues hit poor rural households harder including drought, disease, and theft. with more than 55 per cent of them having experienced loss compared to 37 per cent of In Tanzania, as of October 2010, there were more households in the richest quintile. Livestock than 17 million heads of large livestock (bulls, theft and disease cost more than six per cent cows, heifers, steers), more than 21 million of of average total household consumption. In medium-sized livestock (sheep and goats or addition, 8.5 per cent of the poor in 2010/11 shoats), close to two million pigs, and over 50 were pushed into poverty by the loss of livestock, million heads of poultry. adding more than 800,000 people into these ranks. As a result, about 5 million Tanzanian households, or close to 58 per cent of them, reported owning This raises a number of questions: at least one kind of livestock, with the larger • What prevents farmers from investing more proportion of them in rural areas (three out of in the protection of their livestock, especially four households) than in urban areas (one out through vaccination programs? Should of four). government invest more in veterinary services to tackle livestock disease? Approximately, 25 per cent of rural households • Should investment in new technologies, owned a large livestock compared to less than such as GPS, be considered to help track four per cent of urban households. stolen livestock as experimented in Kenya? Unfortunately, many Tanzanian households Or does this just require stronger law cannot fully bene�t from their livestock because enforcement? most of them are exposed to disease and theft. • What role can insurance products play in With less than 30 per cent of owners reporting strengthening the livestock sub-sector? having vaccinated their livestock over the previous 12 months, morbidity rates in 2010/11 • Should government subsidize livestock were as high as 42, 29, 20 and 58 per cent for insurance or vaccination programs? cattle, goats, pigs and poultry respectively. Note: These statistics are extracted from the 2009 FAO State of Food and Agriculture report In 2010/11, the toll on livestock from disease and and the Tanzania National Panel Survey 2010/11. theft was staggering: Both are publicly available and can be readily replicated. • Diseases claimed more than 1.4 million cattle and 3.4 million shoats. • More than 80,000 heads of cattle and half a READER COMMENTS million shoats were stolen. • Poultry were even more exposed to diseases Why invest in vaccination if the animal gets and theft with a loss of more than 30 million. stolen? It’s property rights – and the rule of The total loss from disease and theft for all here, you see! livestock was estimated at Sh649 billion of 54 www.blogs.worldbank.org/africacan/tanzania-lets-think-together 26 TA N Z A N I A L E T ’ S T H I N K TO G E T H E R | Consumption patterns: Food but almost nothing else For many Tanzanian families, it is a daily struggle to make ends meet with their meager resources. As in many other developing countries, they have money to eat but little else for other needs, such as paying the fees for education or health. 55 www.blogs.worldbank.org/africacan/tanzania-lets-think-together TA N Z A N I A L E T ’ S T H I N K TO G E T H E R | In 2010/11, food – particularly maize (1.7 kg • The food share of the budget declines as per person per week), rice and cassava (half a families get richer - from 81 per cent for kg per person per week each) – accounted for the poorest quintile to 65 per cent for the approximately three quarters of household wealthiest quintile. consumption, excluding rent. The largest single non-food spending category were utilities, which • Better-off households spend a larger accounted on average for 4.5 per cent of total proportion of their budget on non-food items, household consumption, followed by transport particularly transport and communication. (4.2 per cent), health (3.7 per cent), education An exception is health spending, where the (3.4 per cent) and communication (3 per cent). budget share for the poorest and wealthiest quintile are remarkably similar (3.7 and 3.6 Of course, these average consumption patterns per cent). mask signi�cant differences between population groups. In reality, there are large variations These statistics raise the following questions: between urban and rural consumers, reflecting • Should the Government scale up cash different lifestyles as well as access to a greater transfers to assist low-income families in variety of goods. meeting basic household needs? • To what extent should basic services (health, • Urban households spend a larger proportion education, etc) be provided free-of charge of their total budget on non-food items for poor families given their budgetary than rural households (33 per cent vs. 21 implications? per cent of household consumption), a • Is the accelerated urbanization process large part of which goes to transport and changing the consumption patterns in communication. Tanzania? • But even in terms of food consumption, • Apart from food, in what spending there are clear disparities. Urban households categories should Tanzanians be spending are much more likely to consume meals their money? outside the home. This accounts for 27 per cent of total food consumption in urban Note: The statistics above are based on the areas compared to only 10 per cent in rural 2010/11 Tanzania National Panel Survey (NPS). areas. Total consumption in the NPS includes food and most regular non-food expenditures, but Another major trend relates to the differences in excludes rent and consumer durables. This data incomes, which are a major driver of observed source is publicly available. consumption patterns. 56 www.blogs.worldbank.org/africacan/tanzania-lets-think-together 27 TA N Z A N I A L E T ’ S T H I N K TO G E T H E R | How much are Tanzanians paying for their food? For many Tanzanian households, feeding their families remains a primary concern. Today, about eight out of 10 Tanzanians are involved in an agricultural activity but with only a marginal fraction of this production being • In 2007, food counted on average for 62 per commercialized. cent of the household’s consumption basket in Tanzania, while it was only 51 per cent in When households are engaged in something Ghana, 35 per cent in Botswana, 20 per cent else, they generally earn just enough money in Brazil, and 18 per cent in Japan. to cover their food expenses. Other purchasing categories, such as housing and basic durable • The budget share of food was inversely goods come a distant second, except for a few related to the household’s wealth, declining privileged households. from 66 per cent for the poorest to 50 per cent for the wealthiest. It was also lower in The importance of food for most Tanzanian urban centers (53 per cent) than in rural households is highlighted by the following areas (65 per cent). statistics: 57 www.blogs.worldbank.org/africacan/tanzania-lets-think-together TA N Z A N I A L E T ’ S T H I N K TO G E T H E R | • The average share of food in total • Is food by far the most important consumption declined marginally from 69.5 consumption category for most households per cent to 66.6 per cent, between 2001 in Tanzania? and 2007, reflecting the small decline in the • According to the 2007 Household survey, poverty level during this period. an adult needs to consume the equivalent Consequently, food matters a lot for most of Tsh20,000 per month to survive above Tanzanians households. Fortunately, food is the poverty level. At current prices, this expected to be relatively cheap in Tanzania could purchase approximately 10 kilograms thanks to its abundant domestic agricultural of rice or 20 kilograms of maize. Are those production and relatively easy access to global quantities realistic? markets. • Why have food prices continued to increase As of October 2012, the price of maize (one of in Tanzania when they have declined or the main items in the food basket) was lower in grown much slower in neighboring and Tanzania than in Kenya and Uganda by 20 and world markets over the past 12 months? 51 per cent respectively. • If consumers are hurt by high food prices, The price of rice was also lower by 52 and 26 producers may lose incentives with too low per cent respectively. But these comparisons do prices. What is the tradeoff and what should not hold with other developing countries such as the Government do, if anything, about this? Ethiopia (where the maize price was 10 per cent • Should international food trade be promoted lower than in Tanzania) or Vietnam (where rice to reduce divergence between local and was 42 per cent cheaper). world food prices? Perhaps the most intriguing element about food Note: The statistics cited here are based on prices in Tanzania is that local consumer prices national and international price statistics for maize and rice have increased by 39 per compiled by the World Bank and FAO (http// cent and 11 per cent respectively over the past www.foodsecurityportal.org/api/), and 2007 12 months, in sharp contrast with the trends Household Survey. All are publicly available. observed in neighboring and world markets. Local and international prices have diverged READER COMMENTS signi�cantly. Today, the price of one kilogram of The reality in African countries is still very rice is almost twice as high as in Vietnam, while hard and incomes are mostly enough to both were approximately equal in mid-2008. cover only basic needs. Food prices that are At the current per capita level of income, rising constantly only compound an already dif�cult situation. the average Tanzanian is able to purchase There is only one way to reign in the rising approximately 500 kilograms of rice per year food prices: Control what gets exported. compared to over 2,000 kilograms in Vietnam. All of this raises the following set of questions: 58 www.blogs.worldbank.org/africacan/tanzania-lets-think-together 28 TA N Z A N I A L E T ’ S T H I N K TO G E T H E R | Use, don’t abuse Tanzania’s forests source of revenue, accounting for approximately 10 per cent of Tanzania’s total legal exports. • Agricultural expansion alone is estimated to account for an annual deforestation rate of more than 300,000 ha of forest and woodland. Globally, forests are disappearing • Between 1997 and 2005 Tanzania’s legal at an increasing rate. Since timber export market increased by almost 1990 alone, half of the world’s 1,400 per cent in value. rainforests have vanished. • Wood, in the form of charcoal and �rewood, is the primary source of household energy for more than 97 per cent of Tanzanian Tanzania has also been severely affected by households. This rate is similar to that of deforestation as illustrated by the following Uganda (95 per cent) but much higher than statistics: Kenya and Senegal (at 81 and 64 per cent, • Forest area as a share of total land area respectively). declined from 50 per cent to 43 per cent to • In urban areas, charcoal is more heavily 37 per cent from 1938, to 1987 and 2010 used. In 2011, 71 per cent of households in respectively. Dar es Salaam were using charcoal as their • Between 1990 and 2010, mainland Tanzania primary source of energy, with an additional lost eight million hectares or 19 per cent of 5 per cent dependent on �rewood. its forest cover. Equivalent to an average • Approximately half of Tanzania’s annual annual loss of about 400,000 hectares, this consumption of charcoal takes place in Dar represents a deforestation rate of one per cent. es Salaam, amounting to approximately • Miombo woodlands (savannah woodlands 500,000 tons. of much of southwestern Tanzania) have The short-term monetary bene�ts associated shrunk by 13 per cent between 1990 and with deforestation are counterbalanced by well- 2000, while it is estimated that more than known costs. Deforestation strongly contributes 70 per cent of the Usambara forest (North- to increased poverty, as the rural poor heavily East of Tanzania) had been cleared by 1995. depend on forests for their livelihoods. • Forest cover around Dar es Salaam declined from 2,000 ha in 1990 to 385 ha in 2007. Deforestation negatively affects water quality, and contributes to flooding during the wet Forests are burned down to give space to new season and reduced stream flow during the dry agricultural activities. Wood also is a direct 59 www.blogs.worldbank.org/africacan/tanzania-lets-think-together TA N Z A N I A L E T ’ S T H I N K TO G E T H E R | season. It also leads to signi�cant soil erosion, sources instead of charcoal and �rewood with deforested areas frequently degrading be promoted? Will the newly discovered gas into wasteland. As a matter of fact, realizing the resources help? danger, the coastal forests of East Africa have • To what extent should the extension of been placed among the top 10 on Conservation agricultural land be limited with regard to International’s list of most endangered forests areas with forests? around the world. • Should the international community The severe and ongoing deforestation of contribute more (including �nancially) to Tanzania raises the following questions: the protection of Tanzanian forests? • Should the government declare Note: The statistics above are computed using deforestation a national emergency? Senegal, Kenya, and Uganda Demographic and • Is it enough to identify protected areas Health Surveys, the 2010/11 Tanzania National or should the government enact a strong Panel Survey, FAO Statistics. Data from these national tree planting program? surveys are publicly available and results can be • How should the use of alternative energy readily replicated. READER COMMENTS As charcoal is currently the cheapest source of these, and good, solid empirical work has of fuel for cooking in urban areas the only shown that productivity is higher in these way forest destruction can be reduced is by reserves, biodiversity is richer, and bene�ts subsidising kerosene as used to be the case. to communities from these are greater than Other measures are unlikely to be successful in areas where these are not in place. unless stricter penalties for forest reserve Natural gas should be subsidized so that it destruction are enforced. reaches every Tanzanian and discourages The Government introduced Village Forest the use of charcoal. Reserves. There are now around 4 million ha 60 www.blogs.worldbank.org/africacan/tanzania-lets-think-together TA N Z A N I A L E T ’ S T H I N K TO G E T H E R | Social Services 29. Better no to be sick .........................................................................................62 30. Perilous pregnancies ......................................................................................64 31. HIV/Aids still claiming too many lives ........................................................66 32. Tanzania’s Fight Against Malaria .................................................................68 33. Investing in the future through nutrition ...................................................70 34. When old means vulnerable .........................................................................72 35. Can Tanzania afford 100 million citizens in 2035? ................................................................................ 74 36. Are all children really going to school? ......................................................................................................... 76 37. High quality education for all? .....................................................................77 61 www.blogs.worldbank.org/africacan/tanzania-lets-think-together 29 TA N Z A N I A L E T ’ S T H I N K TO G E T H E R | Better not to be sick Visualize the current disarray in healthcare services in Tanzania, with the following statistics (source: 2010 service delivery indicators study): First, you are unlikely to �nd good basic Many African countries are infrastructure: Only one out �ve primary health registering a steep decline in child facilities report having combined access to mortality. Tanzania has seen a electricity, clean water and sanitation facilities. decline from 137 children out of This ratio falls to �ve percent in rural areas. 1,000 live births that did not live However, about 80 per cent of them will use through their �fth birthday in 1996 basic health equipment such as thermometers, stethoscopes, and weighing scales. to only 81 in 2010. The success in child health is largely associated Second, you are unlikely to �nd health workers with the implementation of large in the facility, and if you do, they are unlikely to spend much time with you. Their absenteeism ‘free of charge’ public health rate is about 20 per cent and they spend on programs including malaria control, average only 30 minutes per day counseling immunization and nutrition. patients. Third, and perhaps most disturbing; doctors will These programs are sponsored by large NGOs reach the correct diagnosis in only 57 per cent and external donors, and do not necessarily of the cases. Therefore, it is better not to be sick, depend on the general provision of health except if you have pneumonia and tuberculosis. services in the country. Here are the stats showing the proportion of clinicians who would get an ailment right is: Unfortunately, progress has been more • 27 percent if you suffer from malaria with disappointing in maternal heath and it is anemia; impossible to detect a signi�cant decline here between 2004 and 2010. The slower fall in • 29 percent if you have diarrhea with severe maternal mortality mirrors a similarly slow fall dehydration; in the share of assisted deliveries – the latter • 84 percent if you have pneumonia; improved by just six percentage points between • 66 percent in case of a pelvic inflamatory 1999 and 2010. Today only half of pregnant disease; women in Tanzania give birth in a health facility • 73 percent if you contracted tuberculosis. assisted by skilled personnel. 62 www.blogs.worldbank.org/africacan/tanzania-lets-think-together TA N Z A N I A L E T ’ S T H I N K TO G E T H E R | How about medicine? If you manage to be seen times lower. What should the Government by a clinician, get the right diagnosis, and receive do about it? Should donors �nance more a prescription, there is a 25 per cent chance that training programs? you will not be able to get the prescribed medicine in the facility because of frequent stock-outs. Of Note: The statistics above are computed using course, we have assumed that you have enough data from the Demographic and Health Survey, money to pay for those services. and the Service Delivery Indicator survey all done • What would you do to improve the quality in 2010. Data from these surveys are publicly of healthcare services in Tanzania? Invest in available and results can be readily replicated. private or in public facilities? • Why are absenteeism rates so high? Too READER COMMENTS low salaries for health workers; lack of administrative controls; or inability by patients to pay for services? The current public health system is obviously not working. There is need to invest in • Why are diagnoses so frequently wrong? Is it private facilities. The general psychology the lack of training; or lack of motivation? of Tanzania (public health) workers is characterized by this need to �nd alternative • Why are there so few heath care workers per sources of income, which at the end of the inhabitant? The average number of doctors day affects their productivity. There is a serious lack of human resources per 1,000 inhabitants in Tanzania is 20 and which totally discourages doctors. Even a 175 times lower than the sub-Saharan and machine that is overused is bound to get global average. For mid-wives and nurses, exhausted. those numbers are respectively 3.3 and 11.5 63 www.blogs.worldbank.org/africacan/tanzania-lets-think-together 30 TA N Z A N I A L E T ’ S T H I N K TO G E T H E R | Perilous pregnancies The broader problems caused by poor reproductive health are far greater than what is suggested by these mortality statistics. For every maternal death, many more women Pregnancy and childbirth can be suffer from pregnancy- or childbirth-related a tremendously exciting time for impairments, often with long-term negative impacts on their health and labor force a family if the expectant mother participation. And of course, maternal health is and her unborn child bene�t closely linked to the wellbeing of the newborn from quality medical services children. and the baby is delivered in a A major factor behind the high levels of maternal safe environment. mortality in Tanzania is the insuf�cient utilization of reproductive healthcare services: • While the World Health Organization However, it is as terrible tragedy if the mother recommends that pregnant women loses her life during childbirth or if the newborn (without complications) should have at is sick or dies. least four visits to an antenatal care provider, Unfortunately, many women are lost during child 57 per cent of Tanzanian women had fewer birth as illustrated by the following statistics: visits in 2010. • Tanzania’s maternal mortality ratio is • 56 per cent of rural and 17 per cent of urban estimated at 460 deaths per 100,000 births were delivered at home, rendering live births (in 2010). 8,500 women are advanced medical intervention dif�cult dying every year because of pregnancy or to access in case of complications. In the childbirth. poorest quintile almost two-thirds of births occurred at home. • Maternal mortality has declined since 2005 (from around 610 deaths per 100,000 live • In 2010 alone, around 900,000 births (49 births), but progress has been much slower per cent) were not attended by a skilled than with child mortality. provider: 15 per cent of births were attended only by a traditional birth attendant, 29 • Tanzania’s maternal mortality ratio also per cent were attended only by relatives or appears high compared to other countries, friends and just above 3 per cent of births such as India (200), Kenya (360), Ethiopia (more than 60,000) were delivered without (350) or Senegal (370). any assistance. 64 www.blogs.worldbank.org/africacan/tanzania-lets-think-together TA N Z A N I A L E T ’ S T H I N K TO G E T H E R | This underutilization of reproductive health High costs? Poor quality of service? services is related to poor accessibility and the • Can better education for girls reduce costs associated with seeking care. maternal mortality? Or would it be more Another yet related reason is the poor quality effective to offer expectant mothers �nancial of reproductive health services. In 2010, only incentive to seek pre- and post-natal care? around half of the women (53 per cent) who • How can the quality of maternal health received antenatal care were informed about services be improved? Through incentive- potential pregnancy complications. based pay for healthcare personnel? Better Unlike healthcare needs of children, which equipped facilities? are often addressed through large-scale • Is maternal health mainly the responsibility immunization campaigns and other ‘vertical’ of the women alone? What is the role of the programs, reproductive healthcare needs are men? addressed through the general healthcare system, which suffers from the well-known • Should Government step up family planning problems of weak staff incentives, poor programs to further reduce fertility and the accountability and inadequate service delivery. risk of mothers dying during childbirth? All of this raises the following questions: Note: The statistics above are based on the 2010 Demographic and Health Survey and the World • What are the most important factors Bank’s Gender Statistics Database. Data from deterring women from seeking antenatal these sources are publicly available and results care and delivering their babies at hospitals? can be replicated. Long distances? poor road infrastructure? READER COMMENTS Over half of expectant women deliver at home We need to offer better education and to put and not at health facilities and as such may vigorous family planning programs into action. not be attended by skilled personnel or have We should also compensate committed, access to Emergency Obstetrics Care. professional health workers fair, incentives- based wages and provide a decent, well- The impact of any health intervention can equipped working environment for them. It only be improved if you have corresponding ultimately comes down to having ef�cient, investments in education, housing, nutrition, responsible management in place. access to water, and the like. The problem though is with the silo approach of these interventions. 65 www.blogs.worldbank.org/africacan/tanzania-lets-think-together 31 TA N Z A N I A L E T ’ S T H I N K TO G E T H E R | HIV/Aids still claiming too many lives Similar to the broader trend in the region, Tanzania has achieved some success in reducing HIV/Aids: • HIV prevalence among adults declined from its peak in 1996 (8.4 per cent of those aged 15-49 years) to 5.8 per cent in 2007, though it has stagnated since then. • The number of people dying from AIDS has fallen by about one third, from 130,000 in 2001 to 84,000 in 2011. The overall HIV prevalence in Tanzania (5.8 per cent in 2011) is lower, for example, than in Zambia (12.5 per cent), Malawi (10 per cent) or Uganda (7.2 per cent). And yet, further reductions in HIV infections could well be more dif�cult to achieve, as most transmissions occur through unprotected sex while policy has a limited capacity to change the underlying behavior patterns. What is more critical, however, is that Tanzania is falling behind other countries in the region in reducing Aids-related deaths: • Between 2001 and 2011, Zambia managed to reduce the number of people dying from HIV/Aids remains one of the deadliest HIV/Aids by 57 per cent; Zimbabwe by 61 per diseases in sub-Saharan Africa, causing cent and Kenya by 52 per cent (compared to misery and suffering to millions of Tanzania’s 35 per cent). affected people and their families. • Tanzania currently ranks fourth in the world But there are also signs of hope, as in terms of the total number of Aids-related new infections and the number of deaths (after South Africa, Nigeria and India) Aids-related deaths have come down • An estimated 1.3 million children in Tanzania signi�cantly since the mid-2000s. have lost at least one of their parents to the epidemic and are growing up as orphans. 66 www.blogs.worldbank.org/africacan/tanzania-lets-think-together TA N Z A N I A L E T ’ S T H I N K TO G E T H E R | The fact that so many Tanzanians still die from All of this raises the following questions: Aids, despite the existence of treatment, signals • What is the reason for the low ARV coverage that the country’s health system does not reach in Tanzania? Lack of access? Stigmatization? those in need of HIV testing and therapy, and Poor quality of HIV/Aids counseling? that antiretroviral (ARV) drugs are not accessible to the majority of the population: • Should the Government prioritize funding for HIV/Aids-related health services? Even at the • Only 40 per cent of the population with expense of other health sector programs? advanced HIV infection are on ARV medication. • Does the Tanzania Foods and Drugs Authority have enough resources to monitor • This ARV coverage is much lower than in the quality and safety of drugs for the Zambia (82 per cent), Kenya (72 per cent), treatment of HIV/Aids? Malawi (67 per cent) and Uganda (54 per cent), and far below the MDG target of • What is the role of Tanzanians themselves in universal access to ARV treatment by 2010. limiting the spread of HIV/Aids? • In addition, routine discoveries of counterfeit Note: The statistics above are derived from the ARV drugs raise concerns about the quality World Bank Development Indicators, UNAIDS of treatment available to those in need. data and the CIA World Fact book. All are publicly available. READER COMMENTS If we look at the countries which have the need to ensure that efforts to scale up made major strides in expanding access to access to ART are accompanied by measures antiretroviral therapy (ART) there are several to curtail new infections, so that we do not win key measures they have taken. They have i) the battle and lose the war against Aids. The mobilized political support at the highest second and probably biggest challenge which levels of government; ii) decentralized service remains is how to sustain the �nancing of Aids delivery and adopted a nurse-driven model treatment programs, because even though of care, gradually integrating Aids treatment the cost of drugs has dropped dramatically into chronic care;(iii) introduced a policy of since the early 2000s they still remain well out providing highly subsidized or free ARV drugs, of reach of the majority of the poor in Africa. which are primarily funded by donors; and While most countries in sub-Saharan Africa iv) supported actions to ensure adherence remain highly dependent on donor funding to care, minimizing the risk of drop out (e.g. there is a growing effort by governments to buddy system, peer educators, community assume some �nancial responsibility. worker support). It is disturbing how diseases are like trends - Let me be a bit provocative in addressing the after a while people stop paying attention. But questions you raise. In my view, the debate these diseases don’t just disappear if you stop of the early 2000s about whether countries thinking about them. As time goes on more should or should not initiate Aids treatment and more people should be doing their part to programs is over, as many have demonstrated help �nd a cure. Reading this really opened my it is feasible, doable, and desirable. Two main eyes. challenges remain today. The �rst relates to 67 www.blogs.worldbank.org/africacan/tanzania-lets-think-together 32 TA N Z A N I A L E T ’ S T H I N K TO G E T H E R | Tanzania’s �ght against malaria • In 2011/12, 78 per cent of children under the age of �ve slept under a mosquito net, a more than two-fold increase from 2007/08 (36 per cent). Most nets were distributed through public health campaigns in 2009-11 and were funded by development partners. With an estimated 10 million malaria cases in 2010, the World • There was a signi�cant increase in Health Organization considers households that had been sprayed with Tanzania to be one of the four insecticides over a 12-month period, from four per cent in 2007/08 to 14 per cent in countries with the highest malaria 2011/12. Most indoor residual spraying was prevalence in Africa, along with undertaken around Lake Victoria and in Nigeria, DRC and Uganda. And yet Zanzibar. there are signs that efforts to �ght the disease are bearing fruit: Nevertheless, there has been less progress in increasing timely access to antimalarial medications for expectant mothers and young • Data from Rapid Diagnostic Tests shows children – the two groups particularly vulnerable that malaria prevalence in children aged 6 to the disease: months to 5 years fell by half from 18 per • In 2011/12, only 33 per cent of women who cent in 2007/08 to 9 per cent in 2011/12. had previously given birth had received the • Reported malaria deaths declined from recommended 2+ doses of SP/Fansidar around 20,000 per year in 2004-06 to below during pregnancy, marginally up from 31 12,000 in 2011. While there is a possibility per cent in 2007/08. that the malaria deaths are underreported, • In 2011/12, the proportion of under-�ves the trend signals substantial improvement. with fever who started their treatment on Tanzania’s recent success in reducing malaria- the same or next day following the onset related morbidity and mortality can be linked to of fever stood at only about 60 per cent a signi�cant scale up of interventions aimed at (amongst those who medicate), a negligible preventing transmission of the malaria parasite, improvement from 2007/08. Since malaria controlling mosquito populations, and improving can rapidly progress to severe levels, the treatment: delay in treatment for the remaining 40 per 68 www.blogs.worldbank.org/africacan/tanzania-lets-think-together TA N Z A N I A L E T ’ S T H I N K TO G E T H E R | cent partly explains why malaria continues Through better laboratory facilities? Greater to be a leading cause of death amongst use of Rapid Diagnostic Tests (RDTs)? young children. Better training of healthcare personnel? It is striking that many cases of fever are treated • Why are few pregnant women receiving the presumptively for malaria without con�rmatory recommended doses of preventive malaria tests. In 2011/12, just 25 per cent of under– treatment? �ves with fever had any blood sample taken for • What can be done to maintain the current testing. This tendency not only contributes to high coverage of mosquito nets given that the delayed diagnosis of non-malarial diseases, nets typically last 3-5 years and the last protracted illness and unnecessary side-effects, distribution campaign ended about two but it also raises public and private healthcare years ago? costs and increases the risk of drug resistance. Note: Data are from the WHO’s World Malaria All of this raises the following questions: Report 2012 and the 2007/08 and 2011/12 • What could explain the fact that many Tanzania HIV/Aids and Malaria Indicator Surveys children receive delayed treatment for (THMIS). All are publicly available. malaria? Could it be the lack of access to The 2007/08 and 2011/12 THMIS used slightly health facilities? Insuf�cient knowledge different malaria tests, which could have an about malaria? High cost of drugs? impact on reported malaria prevalence amongst • How can malaria diagnosis be improved? children. READER COMMENTS Just returned from the Comoros Islands where transmit the anopheles. The baseline malaria a Chinese team treated one island population prevalence prior to this massive treatment with artemesimine and piperaqine (in short campaign was 24% and dropped after three artequik) except pregnant women who were months to 0.02%. However WHO is not treated with piperaqine only. approving or recommending this strategy. How ef�cacious and sustainable this strategy The theory is that treatment is prevention and is in the medium term is not known today if no person is infected then the vector cannot 69 www.blogs.worldbank.org/africacan/tanzania-lets-think-together 33 TA N Z A N I A L E T ’ S T H I N K TO G E T H E R | Investing in the future through nutrition Malnutrition has detrimental effects on a child’s physical growth (stunting); it can also result in irreversible damage to their brain and mental development, and it increases their risk for illness and death. The biggest impact of malnutrition is seen in the �rst 1,000 days of life of a child’s life - from the time of conception to the time they reach their second birthday. For women, malnutrition increases risk during pregnancy and the delivery of low birth weight babies. Malnutrition is a serious issue in Tanzania as shown by the following statistics: • In 2010, more than three million (42 per cent) of Tanzanian children under �ve years of age were physically stunted. • Between 2004/05 and 2010 stunting in children under �ve years of age only marginally declined only from 44.3 per cent to 42 per cent. • 59 per cent of children are anaemic – a signi�cant proportion inherited it from their mothers who suffered from iron de�ciency during pregnancy. • 40 per cent of women of childbearing age are anaemic compared to just 17 per cent in 70 www.blogs.worldbank.org/africacan/tanzania-lets-think-together TA N Z A N I A L E T ’ S T H I N K TO G E T H E R | Rwanda, 19 per cent in Burundi and 29 per Other factors that influence a child’s risk for cent in Kenya. malnutrition include poor access to health services, poor hygiene practices, household • 42 per cent of households consume food insecurity, and poor access to clean water. inadequately iodised or non-iodised Although a decline in poverty levels and improved salt which puts unborn children at risk education outcomes could reduce malnutrition of signi�cant irreversible brain damage to some extent, these factors will take time and whereas this is only the case in two per cent are unlikely to be suf�cient. of Kenyan households and four per cent of Ugandan households. The good news is that malnutrition can be prevented through simple interventions targeted • What and how much we eat is partly towards women of child bearing age and children determined by our income and education within the �rst two years of life. Even better levels. Tanzania children in the poorest news is that investments in nutrition, such as quintile are 80 per cent more likely to be the national forti�cation programme in Tanzania, stunted than children in the richest quintile. have proven to have high economic returns at A child whose mother has secondary the national level. education is twice less likely to be stunted than one whose mother has no education. • Are you surprised by the extent of malnutrition in Tanzania which is a Nevertheless, wealth and education are no predominantly agricultural country with guarantee against malnutrition. One out of four plenty of foods, including �sh and livestock? children from the wealthiest families are stunted and children whose mothers have secondary • Can malnutrition be reduced without education are just as likely to be anemic as targeted programs? children from the poorest households or whose • Are Tanzanians suf�ciently informed about mothers received no education. the consequences of their eating habits? A child may end up malnourished despite eating Why do households consume poorly iodised ‘enough’ at every meal every day. This is especially salt? so if the child frequently falls ill e.g. with diarrhea, • Should public policies to create a more malaria or pneumonia; if the young infant was enabling environment for good nutritional given other foods or liquids instead of breast practices be enacted and enforced? milk before the age of six months, if the infant or young child only eats three or fewer times a day • Who should take the lead? The Government? or if the meals do not contain enough nutrient Households? Communities? Partners? rich foods like fruits, vegetables and animal Note: The statistics used here are extracted products such as meat, �sh, milk and eggs. from the 2010 World Population Prospectus Children may also end up malnourished if their and various issues of the Demographic and mothers were not well fed during pregnancy, Health Surveys for Tanzania, Kenya, Uganda and were anaemic, ill or did not get enough rest. Rwanda. All are publicly available. 71 www.blogs.worldbank.org/africacan/tanzania-lets-think-together 34 TA N Z A N I A L E T ’ S T H I N K TO G E T H E R | When old means vulnerable Over the past two centuries, life expectancy in Western Europe increased from 32 (in 1800) to over 80 years in 2011. This unprecedented leap in human history came as the combination of technological advances in medicine, improved living conditions, and better nutrition, among other factors. However, old age is also often accompanied by a general deterioration in physical capacities, proneness to disease and sickness, and the inability to engage in economic activity. This heightens the risk of poverty and insecurity thereby requiring societies to �nd mechanisms to support their elderly population. In line with universal trends, life expectancy in Tanzania grew from 43 in 1960 to 58 years in 2011. Today, there are roughly 2.7 million Tanzanians – the equivalent of six per cent of the total population – aged 60 and above. This rapidly expanding group is also unfortunately more vulnerable than the rest of the population. Not only are they poorer (by about 7 per cent) but they are also more prone to disability (15.5 per cent compared to 2.4 percent for those aged between 20 and 59). 72 www.blogs.worldbank.org/africacan/tanzania-lets-think-together TA N Z A N I A L E T ’ S T H I N K TO G E T H E R | What is also striking about aging in Tanzania is Ultimately, the vast majority of elders have no that women appear signi�cantly more vulnerable choice but to continue to work, especially in than men. agriculture-related activities. In 2011, 70 percent of elders (aged more than 65) were still active on Consider the following statistics: the labor market in Tanzania, against 55 percent • 56.6 per cent of elderly women are widowed in Kenya; 30 percent in Korea and less than two compared to 7.2 per cent for males. percent in France. • 19.3 per cent of elderly women claim This warrants a few questions: disability compared to 10.3 per cent for • Should the welfare of the elderly be a priority males. for the Government given that the number • 17 per cent of elderly women live in one of old people will increase in the years to of their children’s household compared to come? three per cent for males. • Are traditional social safety nets (family, • 38 per cent of households headed by elderly religious groups, friends) suf�cient to women rely on remittances vs. 20 percent protect old people? for males. • Should incentives be provided to families so • Elderly female-headed households have a that they are in a better position to provide 7 percent higher risk of poverty than those support to their elderly relatives? headed by elderly males. • To what extent should social programs Tanzania’s elderly cannot count on ‘formal’ target old women given they are on average social security schemes or free medical services. more vulnerable than old men? Approximately one out of 100 elderly Tanzanians • Is it realistic to offer access to free healthcare was entitled to social security coverage in to all people aged 60 and over? 2006. Only 11 per cent of them had access to healthcare fees exemption at a health facility in Note: The statistics above are based on the 2011. 2010/11 National Panel Survey, the 2006 Integrated Labour Force Survey, World As a result, they have to rely on informal safety Development Indicators, and ILO statistics. All nets – mainly family to survive. Elders for are publicly available. instance are three times more likely than the national average to receive money transfers. 73 www.blogs.worldbank.org/africacan/tanzania-lets-think-together 35 TA N Z A N I A L E T ’ S T H I N K TO G E T H E R | Can Tanzania afford 100 million citizens in 2035? Tanzania has experienced an exceptionally high population growth – from 11 million in 1963 to over 45 million in 2012. Among the factors that have contributed to this increase – one of the fastest in the world– is the falling mortality rate. Life expectancy in Tanzania has increased over the past two decades from 50 to 58 years. In addition, Tanzanian women have continued to have many children (5.4 per woman in 2010), which is higher than Kenya and Rwanda (4.6) as well as other sub-Saharan countries with the exception of Uganda. Since 1991, this rate has only declined by 13 percent in Tanzania against 26 and 31 percent in Rwanda and Kenya, respectively. Several other factors have also contributed to the high population growth rate that Tanzania is experiencing: • Infant mortality has halved over the last 25 years. • Early marriage: the median age at �rst marriage in 2010 was 18.8 years in Tanzania compared to 20.0 in Kenya and 21.4 in Rwanda. • Early motherhood: 44 percent of Tanzanian women are either pregnant or are mothers by the age of 19. • Insuf�cient education: Reaching secondary education considerably delays the age at �rst marriage and girls with secondary education wed at about 23 years in Tanzania, Kenya and Rwanda. 74 www.blogs.worldbank.org/africacan/tanzania-lets-think-together TA N Z A N I A L E T ’ S T H I N K TO G E T H E R | In 2010, women who had no education had high-quality education, infrastructure twice as many children as those who had and other basic services for the coming attained secondary education. generation? • The average desired number of children for • Will economic development and urbanization Tanzanian women remains high at 5.3 per be suf�cient to reduce population growth woman. over time? • Timid family planning programs; The • Should the Government promote family use of contraceptives has stalled with planning programs like Ethiopia and Rwanda only 27 percent of women using modern have done? contraceptives in 2010 compared with • How can more men be encouraged to 39 percent and 26 percent in Kenya and participate in family planning programs? Rwanda respectively in the same year. • Should targeted education programs be With the current fertility and mortality rates, implemented to encourage girls to remain in Tanzania’s population is projected to reach 100 schools? million in 2035 and 200 million by the end of • What should the role of development this century. These projections raise a number of partners, communities, civil society and questions: religious leaders be? • Will there be enough food to feed 100 million Note: The statistics used here are extracted from people in 2035? the 2010 World Population Prospects and various • How can enough jobs be created for the issues of Demographic and Health Surveys for mounting youthful population? Tanzania, Kenya, Uganda and Rwanda. All are • Will there be enough resources to provide publicly available. READER COMMENTS Did Tanzania implement a family planning early motherhood among girls; and the use of programme? Ghana has had a family planning oral contraceptives is being encouraged, with programme from 1971 and as a result, her men starting to participate in this. population has not grown so rapidly. There has also been an increase family planning Clearly this population growth does pose risks, education campaigns. If these measures but aren’t there any conditions under which continue to be implemented with seriousness, you see an opportunity? Might we not see a it is possible that the population growth will be demographic dividend, for example, whereby a contained gradually. larger proportion of the population is working and economic growth is thus given a lift as we Because of population growth, the standard of saw in Asia three decades ago? living of most Tanzanians has hardly improved. All the extra resources made available through Several programs are being undertaken to the growth go into building and running new control population growth in Tanzania. At basic facilities for the expanding population least one or two secondary schools have been – new schools, new teacher training colleges, established in every ward in order to reduce new health centers, etc. 75 www.blogs.worldbank.org/africacan/tanzania-lets-think-together 36 TA N Z A N I A L E T ’ S T H I N K TO G E T H E R | Are all children really going to school? Over the past decade, Tanzania has been close to reaching its universal primary education results for standard four students show that only 47 per cent could read a standard two- targets according to of�cial level Kiswahili story and a mere 15 per cent statistics. could divide 75 by 5. • Why are children not going to school when they reach seven years of age? However, when Tanzanian households were • Why are so many Tanzanian children not asked directly in recent surveys, they reported: learning? • 17 per cent of their seven to 13-year-olds Note: The statistics above are computed using were not attending school data from the Demographic and Health Survey, • 30 per cent of the seven or eight-year-olds the Uwezo survey, and the Service Delivery in rural areas were not attending school and Indicator survey all done in 2010. Data from this proportion went up to 45 per cent for these surveys are publicly available and results those in the poorest quintile can be readily replicated. • About one third (400,000) of the 1.2 million seven-year-olds are out of school, with rural boys less likely to go to school than girls. READER COMMENTS Those responses warrant a number of questions: • Are government education statistics real? It is not possible for a poor country like Are children of�cially registered but not Tanzania to have all its children attending school. attending school? • Does the discrepancy between of�cial and I believe that as Tanzanians, we have done our survey statistics reflect quality issues in level best to eradicate illiteracy at the family the education system? Indeed, according level, though poverty is still a major challenge. to surveys that tested Tanzanian children, 76 www.blogs.worldbank.org/africacan/tanzania-lets-think-together 37 TA N Z A N I A L E T ’ S T H I N K TO G E T H E R | High quality education for all? outcomes compared to neighboring countries but also the quality of education varies tremendously depending on where you live in the country: • The best performing schools are found in the urban centers, such as Iringa Mjini, Education is key. As foundations Bukoba Urban and Arusha. In these districts, go, there is none more important students in Standard Seven scored on than this one – in bringing about average 97-98 per cent in math, 88-91 progress and in sustaining it. per cent in English and 97-98 per cent in Kiswahili when tested with a Standard Two exam. • In contrast, schools in Chunya, Kibondo and Tunduru reported math scores ranging from 50 per cent (Chunya) to 78 per cent Since the introduction of free primary education (Kibondo, Tunduru), and only obtained a in 2001, Tanzania has achieved signi�cant dismal 44-47 per cent in English, and 75-83 progress in improving access to basic education. per cent in Kiswahili. Many Standard Seven Primary school attendance of children aged students in these districts hence have not seven to 13 years increased from 54 percent in grasped even the Standard Two curriculum. 1999 to almost 80 percent in 2010. • Disparities in learning outcomes emerge Yet Tanzania also still has one of the lowest from the very beginning of the education primary-to-secondary transition rates in Sub- cycle: Already in Standard Three, students Saharan Africa (at just 41 percent in 2009), with in Iringa Mjini perform twice as well in math girls being particularly disadvantaged. as those in Kibondo (82 per cent vs. 40 per cent – again, based on a Standard Two In addition, standardized assessments have exam), almost �ve times as well in English revealed that the quality of education is (61 per cent vs. 13 per cent) and more than insuf�cient to provide students with the most 2.5 times as well in Kiswahili (83 per cent basic numeracy and literacy skills. vs. 33 per cent). These children may only In 2011, Tanzania scored much lower than Kenya be a day’s drive from each other, but they or Uganda in these assessments. Not only are worlds apart in terms of the quality of does Tanzania still lag in terms of educational education they receive. 77 www.blogs.worldbank.org/africacan/tanzania-lets-think-together TA N Z A N I A L E T ’ S T H I N K TO G E T H E R | • And inequalities are not con�ned to primary • Family involvement in the children’s education. The share of children who education. This too is a very important passed the 2011 Certi�cate of Secondary determinant of success or failure in school. Education Examination (CSEE) is between These huge variations in school performances just two per cent (e.g. Simanjiro and Mbulu within Tanzania raise several questions: districts) and 24 per cent (Makete) (see • Why do schools in some districts appear to http://developmentseed.org/tanzania- be doing so much better than others, even bank/#performance for further details). with the same resources? What are the key What could explain these variations in learning ingredients of success for these schools? outcomes? A major explanation is found in the School-level management? Teachers’ work current distribution of resources across districts ethics? and schools. As expected, districts with more • Should the government increase teacher resources and teachers (per student) are also salaries depending on school performance? more likely to deliver better education services • To what extent are variations in education and therefore outcomes. However, there is some outcomes explained by factors outside the limit to this logic since one additional teacher in school system, such as poor nutrition and an already well-served district will likely have a health? lesser impact on service delivery than one more teacher in an under-served district. • Are parents discriminating against their daughters in access to secondary education? But money alone cannot explain cross-district If so, why? variations in school performance. The districts of Ruangwa and Kilombero, for example, Note: The statistics above are based on the report approximately the same level of public 1999 Reproductive and Child Health Survey, the (recurrent) spending per capita on primary 2010 Demographic and Health Survey, the 2011 education yet exam results in 2011 are much UWEZO Learning Assessment, the World Bank’s better in Kilombero than in Ruangwa (with an Education Statistics Database, the National eight percentage points difference in test scores Examination Council of Tanzania (NECTA) and of students in Standard Seven). Other factors are the World Bank’s 2011 report, ’Service Delivery obviously at play. These include: Indicators: Pilot in Education and Health Care in Africa‘. Data from these sources are publicly • The quality of �nancial management in the available and results can be replicated. local education system and/or the school. • Teacher productivity. Teacher absenteeism READER COMMENTS is a widespread phenomenon, with 20 per cent of teachers in rural schools and 36 per Is it an omission that the entire brief makes no mention of school fees or issue of the cent of teachers in urban schools reported (parent’s) ability to pay? missing during an unannounced visit. 78 www.blogs.worldbank.org/africacan/tanzania-lets-think-together TA N Z A N I A L E T ’ S T H I N K TO G E T H E R | Infrastructure 38. Water is life, but access remains a problem ..............................................80 39 Toilets missing in action ................................................................................82 40. Got a road? .......................................................................................................84 41. How can the mobile revolution lift up Tanzania’s poor? .........................86 42 (Not) On the Move: Road Transport in Tanzania ......................................89 79 www.blogs.worldbank.org/africacan/tanzania-lets-think-together 38 TA N Z A N I A L E T ’ S T H I N K TO G E T H E R | Water is life, but access remains a problem There is no doubt about the importance of water to human existence. Water is also critical to a country’s development as it is People need clean water needed not only for agricultural productivity but also to survive and stay for industrial production. Yet access to water remains a healthy. Lack of clean major challenge in many countries. Tanzania has been blessed, both on the surface and below ground, with water contributes to the three times more renewable water resources than Kenya high mortality rates in and 37 per cent more than Uganda. children Despite the vast amounts of fresh water available, many around the world. Tanzanians are still faced with water shortages due to insuf�cient capacity to access and store it both in rural and urban areas. Few households have access to clean 80 www.blogs.worldbank.org/africacan/tanzania-lets-think-together TA N Z A N I A L E T ’ S T H I N K TO G E T H E R | drinking water from a piped source. Only a small is also a need to rethink the distribution of fraction of rural households can access water responsibilities between the central and local to irrigate their farms. The following statistics governments and to be clearer on who will pay illustrate the magnitude of the problem: for water use. • Access to water from a piped source all but • Should water consumption be free in stagnated over the past two decades. In Tanzania? Should there be a ceiling per 1991/92, 33.5 per cent of the population household that can be subsidized? had such access; this �gure was 33.1 per • Who should pay for water? Should different cent in 2010. Despite this, Tanzania is doing payment systems be implemented better than Uganda (15.3 per cent in 2006), depending on what the water is used for? at par with Kenya (34.3 per cent in 2008- Should the pro�le of users matter? 09) but far behind Senegal (68.7 per cent in 2010); • Can the Government alone close the infrastructure de�cit in the water sector in • Urban areas witnessed a sharp deterioration Tanzania? in access to water from 77.8 per cent to 58.6 per cent. On the other hand, - rural areas • Should Tanzania focus on providing water to experienced a slight improvement from 19.2 urban or rural populations? Should it favour percent to 24.1 per cent during the same agriculture or domestic use? period; • What should be the role of local governments • A large majority of rural households (more in the provision of water? How about local than 70 per cent) were more than 15 communities, donors and private �rms? minutes away from their main water source Note: The statistics are extracted from the in 2010; Demographic and Health Surveys (1991/92, • Only 3 per cent of total cultivated area in 2010), the National Panel Survey 2010/11, the Tanzania was under irrigation in 2010. CIA Factbook, and the Water and Sanitation Program 2011 report. All are publicly available. Improving access to water requires a combination of actions on hard infrastructure and systems. There is need to build pipes, irrigation systems READER COMMENTS and pumps in both urban and rural areas. Fortunately, the Government has started to take We need to provide proper incentives that action and has signi�cantly increased public will allow private enterprise to invest in the resources to the water sector, from Sh183 infrastructure needed to provide water. billion in 2007/8 to Sh575 billion in 2011/12. Central and local governments need to invest Maintenance of existing systems, however, has a lot more in water puri�cation technologies, been neglected as well as the development of the protection of wells for rural communities, new delivery mechanisms, such as partnerships etc. with private operators and communities. There 81 www.blogs.worldbank.org/africacan/tanzania-lets-think-together 39 TA N Z A N I A L E T ’ S T H I N K TO G E T H E R | Toilets missing in action Tanzania is ranked the second lowest in terms of access to improved sanitation worldwide out of 171 countries that reported statistics for 2010. The details read as follows: • Only 1 in 10 Tanzanians has access to to use an improved toilet facility than their an improved sanitation facility, such as a rural counterparts (20 per cent vs. 7 per flush toilet connected to a sewage system cent). or septic tank or a covered pit latrine not • A staggering 5.4 million Tanzanians do not shared with other households. have access to any toilet facility, and answer • This rate (10 per cent) is well below the nature’s call in the open. This burden falls average for sub-Saharan Africa (31 percent), most heavily on the poorest quintile. and also much lower than in Kenya (32 per This lack of improved toilet facilities has a range cent), Uganda (34 per cent) and Malawi (51 of social and economic consequences. per cent). • Urban residents are three times more likely Sanitation is vital for public health as it limits 82 www.blogs.worldbank.org/africacan/tanzania-lets-think-together TA N Z A N I A L E T ’ S T H I N K TO G E T H E R | the spread of diarrhea and other infectious And access to toilet facilities alone is not enough disease and reduces malnutrition, morbidity and to improve sanitation and hygiene. Just as mortality. important is the safe disposal and treatment of human waste, especially in urban areas. Economically, insuf�cient access to sanitation results in premature deaths, in an increased All of this raises the following questions: burden on health care systems, and in time and • Should there be more public investment in productivity losses. sanitation? Or would it be more effective to Other adverse effects on society are less tangible promote private spending on toilet facilities but nonetheless important: Women and girls are through community awareness campaigns afraid of sexual harassment when using public and hygiene education? toilets, especially at nighttime. • Should the Government subsidize latrine And open defecation, in particular, is associated construction in rural areas where access with feelings of shame, loss of dignity and to improved sanitation is lowest? Or privacy. should public investment focus on densely populated urban areas? Despite a general appreciation of these negative impacts there is still very little investment in • How should communities be engaged sanitation: - more effectively in emptying latrines and maintaining the existing infrastructure? • Current investment in sanitation stands at less than 0.1 per cent of GDP, which is Note: The statistics above are based on the inadequate to signi�cantly improve access. World Development Indicators (WDI) and a 2012 desk study on the Economic Impacts of Poor • Most public resources are geared towards Sanitation in Africa by the Water and Sanitation urban sewage systems. Private spending Program (WSP). All are publicly available. on sanitation is also heavily concentrated amongst urban neighborhoods. • While urban access to improved sanitation READER COMMENTS increased from 10 to 20 per cent over the last two decades, there was no corresponding Better hygiene and sanitation can be progress in rural areas (where access to achieved through community awareness improved sanitation stagnated at 6-7 per campaigns, hygiene education, and cent over the period 1990-2010). organizing the villagers into contributing and playing their part, as well as encouraging An important lesson learned from sanitation public investment in building latrines and interventions in Tanzania and around the maintenance of the facilities in urban areas. world is that health and economic bene�ts We can learn a lot from projects carried out only accrue if household spending on latrines in northern India. is accompanied by efforts to improve hygiene practices, especially hand-washing. Improving The use of government subsidies in India for sanitation and hygiene may be more about building improved toilets resulted in people effective awareness raising and social marketing storing their grain in the ’improved toilet’ since this provided the best shelter for their to promote behavior change than it is about precious grain. traditional public investment. 83 www.blogs.worldbank.org/africacan/tanzania-lets-think-together 40 TA N Z A N I A L E T ’ S T H I N K TO G E T H E R | Got a road? Reducing the distance between people, markets, services and knowledge – or simply ‘getting people connected’ – is a crucial part of what economic growth is all about. Although virtual connectivity has become increasingly important today with the emergence of new communication avenues, a good and reliable transport network remains vital. There is a very strong positive correlation between a country’s economic development and the quality of its road network. Yet, by 2011, Tanzania was still lagging behind Uganda and Kenya in terms of the development of its road network as seen in the following facts: • The road network in Tanzania is three times less dense, as given by the number of kilometers of road per 1,000 sq km - of land mass, than in Uganda and Kenya. • There are 7.5 km of paved road per 1,000 sq km of land mass in Tanzania, 84 www.blogs.worldbank.org/africacan/tanzania-lets-think-together TA N Z A N I A L E T ’ S T H I N K TO G E T H E R | while this ratio is 82 and 19.7 for Uganda • In view of the massive �nancing needs, and Kenya respectively. should alternative funding mechanisms be considered, for example, private sector • Only 5.8 per cent of the national roads partnerships for large roads or international network is considered in good and reliable corridors; or community driven initiatives for condition in Tanzania as opposed to 20.7 feeder roads? Should users pay for roads? and 11.0 per cent in Uganda and Kenya respectively. • To what extent can other transport modes such as water or rail be alternatives to road Not only is the road coverage in Tanzania transport? insuf�cient, but where they do exist they are either in poor condition or are totally impassable Note: The statistics are extracted from the especially during the rainy season. As a result, Kilimanjaro and Ruvuma Panel Surveys (2003 households, especially those in remote areas, and 2009) and the CIA Factbook. Both are experience dif�culties transporting their publicly available. goods, travelling from one point to another within the country or even catching up on new developments. READER COMMENTS This lack of mobility is illustrated by the fact Roads are really important despite the fact that only one household out of �ve was within that education also plays a major role in the 2 kilometers of or had access to a paved road in country’s economy. Yet to construct the road, the Kilimanjaro region as recently as 2009. And it means cutting down on investments in in the poorer Ruvuma region, access to a paved education and health, an opportunity cost road was as low as 5.6 percent. we should not have to be subjected to. My The Government has nevertheless made suggestion therefore is that we maintain a signi�cant efforts to improve the road situation balance in all three sectors. as seen in the increased amounts allocated to I don’t see that health and roads are mutually the sector over the past few years. The total exclusive. In fact, there are many studies budget for roads increased from Sh491 billion linking the bene�ts of good transportation in 2007/8 to over Sh2.1 trillion in 2011/12. This systems and health. What good is a modern latest �gure is equivalent to the amount spent health system without access? on Education and twice as much as the Health We need to focus on a system that works budget. together; i.e. where roads are just as important • Should the Government spend more on for connecting the system as education is roads - even at the expense of the Education for the system. Transport is the backbone and Health sectors? of any social and economic development. If • What kind of roads should the country 80 percent of Tanzanians live in rural areas it prioritize – paved or feeder roads? makes sense to invest in rural roads. It’s the only way to mitigate rural-urban migration as • Should Tanzania invest in rural or urban it allows the youth to engage in productive transport? In which priority regions? activities right at their rural base. 85 www.blogs.worldbank.org/africacan/tanzania-lets-think-together 41 TA N Z A N I A L E T ’ S T H I N K TO G E T H E R | How can the mobile revolution lift up Tanzania’s poor? Sub-Saharan Africa has experienced a boom in mobile phone use over the past decade. In creating jobs, for instance, mobile phone The total number of cell phone technology has contributed towards the subscriptions on the continent reduction of poverty. But more important increased from just over 11 million are its indirect effects on the economy in 2000 to 463 million in 2011 and is such as the increased connectivity of �rms and micro-enterprises which increases expected to grow even further. This their access to information and facilitates technology not only affects day- the movement of money through mobile to-day life and communication, but transfers. This contributes to increased has the potential to boost economic productivity and encourages diversi�cation development directly and indirectly. into new activities which are all good for an economy. 86 www.blogs.worldbank.org/africacan/tanzania-lets-think-together TA N Z A N I A L E T ’ S T H I N K TO G E T H E R | The following statistics show that Tanzania has 2010-11, average household spending on seen an impressive increase in mobile phone use communication was higher than on health over the last few years: care. • In 2011, Tanzania had 56 mobile phone The good news is that with about half of subscriptions per 100 inhabitants. This is an subscribers using their phone to send or receive almost threefold increase within four years. money, Tanzanians have been among the fastest users of mobile money services in the world, • Mobile phone access in Tanzania lags just behind Kenya. In agriculture, a growing behind Senegal (73 subscriptions per 100 number of agricultural information providers people) and Kenya (65), but is higher than offer technical advice and market information Mozambique (33) and Malawi (25), and just to farmers through bulk sms, call centers or above the sub-Saharan Africa average (53). specialized apps. In the health sector, mobile • Other developing regions do have higher phones have opened up opportunities for remote mobile phone penetration, with 69 and 80 diagnosis so that health workers in remote subscriptions per 100 people in South Asia facilities are supported to treat their patients by and East Asia, respectively, but the rapid medical experts further away via telephone. This growth in Tanzania suggests that it will soon can potentially improve service delivery in light of catch up. the understaf�ng in rural health centers. What is even more encouraging is that mobile While this virtual connectivity opens new phones are no longer con�ned to urban areas, possibilities, it needs to be accompanied by but have reached remote or hitherto forgotten more policy actions since access to information rural areas and are providing them with much or money by themselves are not enough needed virtual connectivity. Yet the mobile can to transform lives. For instance, even with help in further reducing inequality if more is information in their possession, farmers cannot done to, for instance, reduce costs especially for easily exploit price differences between markets the poorest: if rural roads are in a poor condition and • In 2010 more than one third of rural transportation costs remain prohibitive. Whether households owned a cell phone, up from a the poor can take advantage of mobile phone mere 17 percent in 2007. based services also depends on the education system, which needs to provide students with • This brought �rst-time connectivity to more adequate literacy and life skills. Even remote than �ve million individuals including at diagnosis can only succeed in improving rural least two million poor. health outcomes if primary facilities are stocked • Yet in 2010 only three percent of the poorest with essential drugs and medical equipment, quintile owned a phone compared to 96 and if patients have access to referral facilities percent in the richest quintile. for cases that require higher-level care or face- to-face medical consultations. • Indeed, for a poor family, getting a mobile phone involves �nancial sacri�ce. Handsets • Do you believe that access to mobile phones are expensive while airtime and transaction is changing or will change the lives of cost are about 10-15 percent higher in Tanzanians, including the poorest? Tanzania than in Kenya, even though they • Are mobile phones reducing or exacerbating are still lower than in Uganda. In fact, in inequality in Tanzania? 87 www.blogs.worldbank.org/africacan/tanzania-lets-think-together TA N Z A N I A L E T ’ S T H I N K TO G E T H E R | • How can mobile phones best help households to access mobile phones or Tanzanians to work more productively? rather help them get better education and Through information exchanges? Money health? transfers? Note: The statistics above are based on the • How can the mobile revolution be harnessed World Development Indicators (WDI), 2007 and to improve service delivery in education, 2010 Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS), health or water supply? and the 2010-2011 National Panel Survey. These sources are publicly available. • Should the Government subsidize poor READER COMMENTS Most small food farmers and other food A good example of how Government is producers can grow healthy and affordable using the mobile phone networks to reach food with the relevant knowledge and remote citizens is the Wazazi Nipendeni skills which can be easily acquired from free informative SMS service. It offers free quali�ed providers and not from expensive information to on healthy pregnancy and good communication toys. early childcare for pregnant women, mothers and their families. Within three days of the I think the possibility to make payments launch on 20 November 2012 over 10,000 through the mobile phone will boost the trade mobile users subscribed to the service. Giving at for example rural markets. This could yield a phone “to access markets� for products more young entrepreneurs as well as rural which poor don’t have would be of no use. We businesses. I believe that the mobile phone should focus on the means to create wealth has a tremendous positive effect on rural poor �rst then the transformation will follow. people.In Bangladesh there are 90 million mobile phone users (out of a population of Otherwise, what we are doing is tackling 150 million). Almost every rural household poverty at a secondary level rather than the has access to a mobile connection. As a result, primary level. This is wrong. Mobile phones will the economic activities of rural Bangladesh only lead the poor to waste more of their time have been greatly diversi�ed as a result, with thinking about communicating with relatives women as the main bene�ciaries. instead of doing productive work. 88 www.blogs.worldbank.org/africacan/tanzania-lets-think-together 42 TA N Z A N I A L E T ’ S T H I N K TO G E T H E R | (Not) on the move: road transport in Tanzania � XXX Easy access to markets, public services, and In Tanzania, as in most other countries in the region, jobs is indispensable roads are the predominant mode of transport for for citizens to take people and goods. However, insuf�cient transportation advantage of economic facilities and limited mobility are an everyday reality: opportunities and • In 2010, only 1.8 per cent of Tanzanian households achieve progress. owned a car; signi�cantly less than in Kenya (5.6 per cent in 2008/09) or Uganda (3.2 per cent in 2011). 89 www.blogs.worldbank.org/africacan/tanzania-lets-think-together TA N Z A N I A L E T ’ S T H I N K TO G E T H E R | • Motorbike ownership is also not common – existing infrastructure, resulting in delays and only 2.9 per cent of households on Mainland congestions especially in large cities: claimed ownership of this vehicle in 2010. • Case studies at Dar es Salaam’s Ubungo bus The situation in Zanzibar though was terminal show that the average travel time different with one in ten households owning for journeys of mostly below 15 km exceeds a motorcycle or scooter. 90 minutes. This calculation is for one-way, • Affordable public transport remains elusive including waiting time, and is equivalent to for many Tanzanians: In 2010, more than 40 travel speeds of 10-12 km/h during peak per cent of women who recently gave birth hours. at home cited distance and lack of transport • Approximately 160,000 children in Dar es as the factors that prevented them from Salaam go to school by bus each day, with delivering at a health facility. an average commute lasting more than 1.5 The absence of motorized transportation and hours for the round-trip in 2010/11. This is the resulting isolation is more typical of rural about twice as long as in other urban areas. areas, where public facilities remain few and far All of this raises the following questions: between: • How can traf�c congestion be reduced • Only 0.6 per cent of rural households in in urban areas? Through more inner-city 2010 reported owning a car while 2.3 per roads? Quality bus services? Commuter cent claimed motorbike ownership. trains? Ring roads? • More than 40 percent of rural households • What can be done to improve accessibility are at least four km from a health facility for rural areas? Should communities be (2010). Only nine per cent of these families more engaged in road maintenance and use public or private motorized transport construction? when in need for health care, while others walk (58 per cent) or rely on bicycles (33 per • What is the appropriate investment balance cent). between urban and rural transportation infrastructure? • Only 16 percent of farmers who transport some of their crops for sale use motorized • Besides roads, what other transport transport (2010/11). Eighteen per cent use infrastructure should receive priority? animal transport and a staggering 68 per Railways? Air transport? Ports? Waterways? cent transport their produce by foot or by Note: Ubungo commuter times are cited in bicycle. the Second Central Transport Corridor Project’s Appraisal Document (World Bank 2008). Other On the other hand, urban households can statistics are based on Demographic and Health chose from a wider variety of transport options Surveys for Tanzania (2010), Uganda (2011) and though private cars remain scarce with only 5.4 Kenya (2008/09), and the 2010/11 Tanzania percent of households claiming such ownership. National Panel Survey. All are publicly available. The rising urban population and economic growth also put signi�cant pressure on the 90 www.blogs.worldbank.org/africacan/tanzania-lets-think-together TA N Z A N I A L E T ’ S T H I N K TO G E T H E R | 91 www.blogs.worldbank.org/africacan/tanzania-lets-think-together TA N Z A N I A L E T ’ S T H I N K TO G E T H E R | 92 www.blogs.worldbank.org/africacan/tanzania-lets-think-together www.blogs.worldbank.org/africacan/tanzania-lets-think-together