Public Disclosure Copy The World Bank Implementation Status & Results Report Electricity Expansion (P103037) Electricity Expansion (P103037) AFRICA | Kenya | Energy & Extractives Global Practice | IBRD/IDA | Investment Project Financing | FY 2010 | Seq No: 13 | ARCHIVED on 02-Jan-2018 | ISR30878 | Implementing Agencies: KenGen, KENYA POWER AND LIGHTING COMPANY, Rural Electrification Authority, Ministry of Energy and Petroleum, KENGEN, Ministry of Energy and Petroleum, The National Treasury, The National Treasury Key Dates Key Project Dates Bank Approval Date:27-May-2010 Effectiveness Date:01-Oct-2010 Planned Mid Term Review Date:01-May-2013 Actual Mid-Term Review Date:01-May-2015 Original Closing Date:30-Sep-2016 Revised Closing Date:31-Dec-2017 Project Development Objectives Project Development Objective (from Project Appraisal Document) The project has two development objectives: (a) increase the capacity, efficiency, and quality of electricity supply; and (b) expand access to electricity in urban, peri-urban, and rural areas Has the Project Development Objective been changed since Board Approval of the Project Objective? No Components Name Geothermal Generation:(Cost $171.02 M) Transmission:(Cost $59.00 M) Distribution:(Cost $160.50 M) Sector Institutional Development and Operational Support:(Cost $10.48 M) Overall Ratings Name Previous Rating Current Rating Progress towards achievement of PDO  Moderately Satisfactory  Moderately Satisfactory Overall Implementation Progress (IP)  Moderately Satisfactory  Moderately Satisfactory 1/2/2018 Public Disclosure Copy Page 1 of 14 Public Disclosure Copy The World Bank Implementation Status & Results Report Electricity Expansion (P103037) Overall Risk Rating  Substantial  Substantial Implementation Status and Key Decisions Additional geothermal generation capacity (280MW) - The 140MW Olkaria IV and 140MW Olkaria I power plants were commissioned into operation in September 2, 2014 and January 2015, respectively. The Bank financed steam gathering system, the access road between Olkaria I and IV power plants, and geothermal laboratories and offices have all been completed. Transmission: Two transmission lines (132kV Garissa – Mwingi – Kindaruma; and 132kV Kitale- Eldoret) and associated substations were completed in April 2016. 35 kms, out of 41kms of the 132kV Kisii- Awendo line is completed. The two substations associated with the line have been completed. The remaining 9 kms is being delayed by right of way challenges. KETRACO is negotiating with the land owners and the same time, is discussing with the Bank on the opening of an escrow account to deposit the compensation assessed as payable to the land owners, it considers due to the land owners. The line is estimated to be completed by September 2017. Tata India is the contractor of the transmission lines. Distribution: This component is completed. 24 distribution substations fully financed under the Project have been completed, while 28 others constructed with materials procured under the Project and installed using counterpart funding have also been completed. A total of 10,529 km of distribution lines have been constructed or rehabilitated. Rural Electrification Component (Priority Loads): This component is being implemented by REA and has been substantially completed, except for commissioning of some few lines which has been delayed by lack of auto- reclosers, which are being prrocured. Institutional Development Component (D): Five studies have so far been carried out and completed, namely options for development of a power market in Kenya, cost of service study, technical & economic study for the development of small scale grid connected renewable energy in Kenya, materials and supply chain management study and feasibility study for the 400MW Menengai Phase 1 Geothermal Project. Three consultancy studies and related services are ongoing (risk management study and implementation support for KPLC, development of regulation, revenue arrangements, and technical requirement for private sector renewable energy mini-grids and feasibility studies for some mini-grid sites and are expected to be completed by July 2017. The project (including the additional financing) is expected to be completed by the December 31, 2017 closing date. 1/2/2018 Public Disclosure Copy Page 2 of 14 Public Disclosure Copy The World Bank Implementation Status & Results Report Electricity Expansion (P103037) Risks 1/2/2018 Public Disclosure Copy Page 3 of 14 Public Disclosure Copy The World Bank Implementation Status & Results Report Electricity Expansion (P103037) Systematic Operations Risk-rating Tool Risk Category Rating at Approval Previous Rating Current Rating Political and Governance  --  Moderate  Moderate Macroeconomic  --  Moderate  Moderate Sector Strategies and Policies  --  Moderate  Moderate Technical Design of Project or Program  --  Moderate  Moderate Institutional Capacity for Implementation and Sustainability  --  Moderate  Moderate Fiduciary  --  Substantial  Substantial Environment and Social  --  Substantial  High Stakeholders  --  Moderate  Moderate Other  --  --  -- Overall  --  Substantial  Substantial Results Project Development Objective Indicators PHINDPDOTBL  People provided with access to electricity by KPLC (Number, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 0.00 20,120,345.00 23,593,215.00 11,000,000.00 Date 30-Jun-2010 31-Mar-2017 30-Jun-2017 31-Dec-2017 Comments The number of people provided with electricity access cannot be reported at project level, both PDO level indicators of “people provided with electricity access” is reported as the number of people connected to the grid by KPLC during project period, assuming 5 people per household. And “direct project beneficiaries” is reported as number of connections made by KPLC during project period. PHINDPDOTBL  New slum consumers connected to the grid (Number, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 120,000.00 177,895.00 177,895.00 174,000.00 Date 30-Apr-2016 31-Mar-2017 30-Jun-2017 31-Dec-2017 1/2/2018 Public Disclosure Copy Page 4 of 14 Public Disclosure Copy The World Bank Implementation Status & Results Report Electricity Expansion (P103037) PHINDPDOTBL  Electricity losses per year in the project area (Percentage, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 16.30 19.40 18.90 15.90 Date 30-Jun-2010 30-Jun-2016 30-Jun-2017 31-Dec-2017 Comments Several factors outside the control of the project have contributed to increase in system losses and non realization of the target. Key ones include: (i) increase in generation capacity over the period which is located far from the main load centers; (ii) overload of major transmission lines compounded by delays in the commissioning of new transmission lines as a result of increased generation capacity; (ii) enormous extension of distribution lines in the low voltage network to connect new consumers without corresponding investment in the medium and high voltage transmission and distribution network; (iii) rise in electricity theft; and (iv) ineffective loss reduction strategies by KPLC. PHINDPDOTBL  Electricity losses per year in the project area- Non-Technical (Percentage, Custom Supplement) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 PHINDPDOTBL  Electricity losses per year in the project area- Technical (Percentage, Custom Supplement) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 PHINDPDOTBL  Total net injected generation (Gigawatt-hour (GWh), Custom Supplement) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target 1/2/2018 Public Disclosure Copy Page 5 of 14 Public Disclosure Copy The World Bank Implementation Status & Results Report Electricity Expansion (P103037) Value 0.00 2,300.00 1,820.00 2,020.00 PHINDPDOTBL  1. Electricity generation from renewable generation capacity constructed under the project, net (Gigawatt-hour (GWh), Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 0.00 2,300.00 1,820.00 2,020.00 Date 30-Jun-2010 31-Mar-2017 30-Jun-2017 31-Dec-2017 Comments The units generated in FY 17 from the 140MW Olkaria I and 140MW Olkaria IV geothermal power plants were slightly lower than the annual target due to deliberate curtailment of generation by KPLC due to overloading of the 220kV transmission line that evacuates the electricity generated from the larger Olkaria field. The two power plants were mechanically available to generate the annual units had it not been for KPLC's dispatch instructions to reduce the generation. The annual target had been met and surpassed in FY 16. The transmission system constraint has been overcome following the completion of an additional transmission line (400kV Suswa-Isinya) to evacuate electricity from Olkaria in the second half of 2017 calendar year. PHINDPDOTBL  3. Interruptions per 1,000 customers (Number, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 9.74 3.99 1.94 8.50 Date 30-Jun-2010 31-Mar-2017 30-Jun-2017 31-Dec-2017 PHINDPDOTBL  5. Direct project beneficiaries (CORE) (Number, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 0.00 4,024,069.00 4,718,643.00 2,200,000.00 Date 30-Jun-2010 31-Mar-2017 30-Jun-2017 31-Dec-2017 1/2/2018 Public Disclosure Copy Page 6 of 14 Public Disclosure Copy The World Bank Implementation Status & Results Report Electricity Expansion (P103037) Overall Comments Five out of the the six PDO targets have been achieved and all intermediate indicators have also been achieved. The PDO target on annual electricity generation from renewable capacity under the project was fully achieved and exceeded in FY16 and substantially achieved in FY17. Whereas the two 140MW geothermal plants were available to generate the target units in FY 17, there was a deliberate step taken to reduce the energy generated in response to transmission system constraints. The loss reduction target will not be achieved due to factors explained earlier in this report which are outside the control of the Project. Intermediate Results Indicators PHINDIRITBL  Meters installed under the project (Number, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 0.00 255,000.00 255,000.00 255,000.00 Date 30-Jun-2010 31-Mar-2017 30-Jun-2017 31-Dec-2017 PHINDIRITBL  KPLC conducts an annual customer satisfaction survey for slum consumers (Yes/No, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value N N N Y Date 30-Apr-2016 31-Mar-2017 08-Dec-2017 31-Dec-2017 Comments The survey is on going and at advanced stage of completion. It is planned to have been completed by December 25, 2017. PHINDIRITBL  Community electricity connections constructed under the project (Number, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 0.00 1,058.00 1,058.00 450.00 Date 30-Jun-2010 31-Mar-2017 30-Jun-2017 31-Dec-2017 1/2/2018 Public Disclosure Copy Page 7 of 14 Public Disclosure Copy The World Bank Implementation Status & Results Report Electricity Expansion (P103037) PHINDIRITBL  Community electricity connections constructed –Grid (Number, Custom Breakdown) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 0.00 1,058.00 1,058.00 450.00 Date 30-Jun-2010 31-Mar-2017 30-Jun-2017 31-Dec-2017 PHINDIRITBL  Distribution lines constructed or rehabilitated under the project (Kilometers, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 0.00 11,057.00 11,057.00 2,280.00 Date 30-Jun-2010 31-Mar-2017 30-Jun-2017 31-Dec-2017 Comments The reported number is the combined one for distribution lines constructed and rehabilitated. Target exceeded. 3,996km of lines constructed under turnkey contracts under the project, 7,061km constructed using both materials financed under the Project and or KPLC counterpart funding. PHINDIRITBL  Distribution lines constructed under the project (Kilometers, Custom Breakdown) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 0.00 11,057.00 11,057.00 2,280.00 Date 30-Jun-2010 31-Mar-2017 30-Jun-2017 31-Dec-2017 PHINDIRITBL  Distribution lines rehabilitated under the project (Kilometers, Custom Breakdown) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 0.00 11,057.00 11,057.00 2,280.00 Date 30-Jun-2010 31-Mar-2017 30-Jun-2017 31-Dec-2017 1/2/2018 Public Disclosure Copy Page 8 of 14 Public Disclosure Copy The World Bank Implementation Status & Results Report Electricity Expansion (P103037) PHINDIRITBL  Transmission lines constructed or rehabilitated under the project (Kilometers, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 0.00 328.00 340.00 334.00 Date 30-Jun-2010 31-Mar-2017 14-Dec-2017 31-Dec-2017 Comments There were no rehabilitations of transmission lines. PHINDIRITBL  Transmission lines rehabilitated under the project (Kilometers, Custom Breakdown) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Date 30-Jun-2010 31-Mar-2017 31-Mar-2017 31-Dec-2017 PHINDIRITBL  Transmission lines constructed under the project (Kilometers, Custom Breakdown) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 0.00 328.00 340.00 334.00 Date 30-Jun-2010 31-Mar-2017 14-Dec-2017 31-Dec-2017 PHINDIRITBL  Generation Capacity of Renewable Energy (other than hydropower) constructed (Megawatt, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 0.00 280.00 280.00 280.00 Date 30-Jun-2010 30-Jun-2015 30-Jun-2015 30-Sep-2016 1/2/2018 Public Disclosure Copy Page 9 of 14 Public Disclosure Copy The World Bank Implementation Status & Results Report Electricity Expansion (P103037) PHINDIRITBL  Generation Capacity of Renewable Energy constructed - Other (Megawatt, Custom Breakdown) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 0.00 280.00 280.00 280.00 Date 30-Jun-2010 30-Jun-2015 30-Jun-2015 30-Sep-2016 PHINDIRITBL  Generation Capacity of Renewable Energy constructed-Geo-thermal (Megawatt, Custom Breakdown) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 0.00 280.00 280.00 280.00 Date 30-Jun-2010 30-Jun-2010 30-Jun-2017 30-Sep-2016 PHINDIRITBL 6. Generation capacity of renewable energy (geothermal) constructed or rehabilitated under the project (CORE) (Megawatt, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 0.00 280.00 280.00 280.00 Date 30-Jun-2010 30-Jun-2015 30-Jun-2017 30-Sep-2016 PHINDIRITBL  7. Transmission lines constructed or rehabilitated under the project (CORE) (Kilometers, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 0.00 328.00 340.00 334.00 Date 30-Jun-2010 31-Mar-2017 14-Dec-2017 31-Dec-2017 1/2/2018 Public Disclosure Copy Page 10 of 14 Public Disclosure Copy The World Bank Implementation Status & Results Report Electricity Expansion (P103037) PHINDIRITBL  8. Distribution lines constructed or rehabilitated under the project (CORE) (Kilometers, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 0.00 11,057.00 11,057.00 2,280.00 Date 30-Jun-2010 31-Mar-2017 30-Jun-2017 31-Dec-2017 Comments The reported number is the combined one for distribution lines constructed and rehabilitated. Target exceeded. 3,996km of lines constructed under turnkey contracts under the project, 7,061km constructed using both materials financed under the Project and or KPLC counterpart funding. PHINDIRITBL  9. Substations constructed or rehabilitated by KPLC under the project (Number, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 0.00 62.00 63.00 26.00 Date 30-Jun-2010 31-Mar-2017 30-Jun-2017 31-Dec-2017 Comments Target exceeded. 31 substations constructed with funding under the project (24 distribution substations and 7 transmission substations).. 32 distribution substations constructed using counterpart funding. PHINDIRITBL  12. Community (public facilities) electricity connections provided under the project (CORE) (Number, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 0.00 1,058.00 1,058.00 450.00 Date 30-Jun-2010 30-Jun-2015 30-Jun-2017 31-Dec-2017 1/2/2018 Public Disclosure Copy Page 11 of 14 Public Disclosure Copy The World Bank Implementation Status & Results Report Electricity Expansion (P103037) PHINDIRITBL  Community Center (Number, Custom Breakdown) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 0.00 6,471.00 6,471.00 450.00 Date 30-Jun-2010 31-Mar-2017 30-Jun-2017 31-Dec-2017 PHINDIRITBL  13. Business electricity connections provided under the project (CORE) (Number, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value 0.00 15,511.00 15,511.00 15,000.00 Date 30-Jun-2010 31-Mar-2017 30-Jun-2017 31-Dec-2017 PHINDIRITBL  14. Roadmap for implementation of the wholesale electricity market is adopted by MoE (Yes/No, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value N Y Y Y Date 30-Jun-2010 31-Mar-2017 30-Jun-2017 30-Sep-2016 PHINDIRITBL  15. Rural Electrification Master Plan (REMP) annually updated (Yes/No, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value N Y Y Y Date 30-Jun-2010 31-Mar-2017 30-Jun-2017 30-Sep-2016 1/2/2018 Public Disclosure Copy Page 12 of 14 Public Disclosure Copy The World Bank Implementation Status & Results Report Electricity Expansion (P103037) PHINDIRITBL  16. Cost of service study completed one year before 2014 tariff review is launched (Yes/No, Custom) Baseline Actual (Previous) Actual (Current) End Target Value N Y Y Y Date 30-Jun-2010 31-Mar-2017 30-Jun-2017 30-Sep-2016 Overall Comments Data on Financial Performance Disbursements (by loan) Project Loan/Credit/TF Status Currency Original Revised Cancelled Disbursed Undisbursed Disbursed P103037 IDA-47430 Effective USD 330.00 330.00 0.00 316.99 4.83 96% P103037 IDA-58440 Effective USD 68.00 68.00 0.00 63.15 2.11 93% P103037 TF-10097 Closed USD 5.15 5.15 0.00 5.15 0.00 100% P103037 TF-A2191 Effective USD 3.00 3.00 0.00 3.00 0.00 100% Key Dates (by loan) Project Loan/Credit/TF Status Approval Date Signing Date Effectiveness Date Orig. Closing Date Rev. Closing Date P103037 IDA-47430 Effective 27-May-2010 05-Jul-2010 01-Oct-2010 30-Sep-2016 31-Dec-2017 P103037 IDA-58440 Effective 15-Jun-2016 29-Jun-2016 28-Sep-2016 31-Dec-2017 31-Dec-2017 P103037 TF-10097 Closed 20-Feb-2012 20-Feb-2012 21-May-2012 30-Jun-2014 30-Jun-2017 P103037 TF-A2191 Effective 15-Jun-2016 29-Jun-2016 28-Sep-2016 31-Dec-2017 31-Dec-2017 Cumulative Disbursements 1/2/2018 Public Disclosure Copy Page 13 of 14 Public Disclosure Copy The World Bank Implementation Status & Results Report Electricity Expansion (P103037) Restructuring History Level 2 Approved on 22-May-2013 ,Level 2 Approved on 30-May-2014 ,Level 2 Approved on 20-Apr-2016 Related Project(s) P125388-GPOBA W3: Kenya Electricity ,P153179-Additional Financing: Kenya Electricity Expansion Project 1/2/2018 Public Disclosure Copy Page 14 of 14