April 2018 - Number 168 STRENGTHENING CONFLICT SENSITIVE APPROACHES TO CLIMATE CHANGE IN MENA are sometimes cited as illustrations of climate- Lia Carol Sieghart, Mahlette Betre and Joseph Allen induced conflict, however the forces at play are Mizener1. far more complex and need to account for historical and geopolitical context. There is Introduction: The Middle East and North Africa increasing consensus around a more moderate (MENA) is among the world’s most vulnerable view that climate change alone will not likely regions to climate change. The region is projected generate conflict, instead, it will more likely serve to experience increasing temperatures, water as a threat multiplier that could put pressure on stress and instances of extreme weather events, already scarce resources and exacerbate pre- with direct consequences for regional food and existing issues, such as political instability, water security. In addition, a large share of the poverty, and unemploymentvii,viii - underscoring region’s population, infrastructure and economic the importance of a conflict-sensitive approach to activity are at risk from sea level risei. Traditional climate change in this context. patterns of migration may also be disrupted in response to climate changeii. The poorest and socially marginalized are the most vulnerable to these changes, particularly where the infrastructure, social safety nets and economic resources, needed to support these groups are insufficient. With climate risks predicted to worsen in the coming decadesiii, biophysical impacts coupled with growing demand for food and water, are set to put increased pressure on socio-political systems. Many countries in the region are experiencing various levels of fragility, including violent conflictiv. How will climate risks further exacerbate fragility in these countries and are there adequate policies and tools for countries to build their resilience? Climate Change and Conflict: The links between Djibouti’s saline Lake Assal climate change and conflict have been much World Bank Photograph discussed and debated among policy makers and academics alike. Some argue that there is Conflict Sensitive Approaches to Climate substantial evidence that climatic changes Change: A conflict-sensitive approach to climate correlate with greater incidences of conflictv change is based on the idea that adaptation and while others find these connections mitigation measures could indirectly influence ‘inconclusive’ . The conflicts in Yemen and Syria vi conflict. This is particularly important in contexts 1 Global Practice of the World Bank. The authors are in the Environment and Natural Resources April 2018 · Number 166· 3 of states that are fragile and/or in conflict where and reconstruction efforts following decades of governance structures and institutions are often conflict. The Iraq Social Fund for Development, weak, regardless of climate change. In these approved in February 2018, will finance instances, there is a risk that ill-informed climate community level subprojects which incorporate change adaptation and mitigation policies or climate adaptation into their design, including actions that don’t take the comprehensive social, the rehabilitation and maintenance of irrigation economic, and political realities into canals, drainage structures and roads, and the consideration may trigger new conflicts or construction of small scale water supply and exacerbate existing onesix. Transboundary water reservoirs. These subprojects are expected to patterns can be used as an illustration. contribute to increased agricultural productivity, Adaptation measures of an up-river community enhanced infrastructure resilience to extreme could result in water scarcity in the down-river weather events such as more intense and community, increasing chances for conflict over frequent storms and increase the quality and the shared resourcex. Also, interventions to quantity of water resources. Overall, the $300 rehabilitate rangeland to adapt to climate change million project expects to benefit 1.5 million could potentially contribute to conflict if there households and create over 10 million isn’t clarity and buy-in from communities and employment days, leading to improved, adherence to local laws, customs and social sustainable access to basic services and increased arrangements, about who is able to use and social cohesion. Inclusive community benefit from the land. engagement is a crucial element to prioritizing and then implementing sub-projects in an The MENA Region’s Response: Despite these effective, and conflict-sensitive manner. Local challenges, MENA countries are taking steps to representatives, with a strong showing from tackle climate change. Almost every country in women, have already participated in planning the region has submitted a plan for how they will and decision-making discussions. contribute towards the global framework under the Paris Agreement that drives collective action The Challenge in Djibouti: More than 23 percent toward a zero-carbon, climate-resilient futurexi. of Djibouti lives in extreme poverty and To help countries implement these national unemployment is high at 39 percent. Many, plans, the World Bank’s MENA Region has particularly those in rural communities, have outlined a Climate Action Plan aiming to increase limited access to adequate water resources, the portion of financing dedicated to climate including safe drinking water. This is further action, with a focus on scaling up support for threatened by climate change, which is expected adaptation and protecting the poorest, i.e. the to increase rainfall variability, extreme weather most vulnerable to impacts of climate change. events (i.e. floods and droughts), and sea level Two examples of how the World Bank is rise, all of which impact the quantity and quality incorporating climate change resilience into of water resources. Water resources are projects in a fragile and conflict state context additionally stretched due to population growth, include the Social Fund for Development in Iraq an influx of displaced people from neighboring and the Rural Community Development and conflicts and climate change. The Rural Water Mobilization Project in Djibouti. Community Development and Water Mobilization Project (PRODERMO) aims to The Challenge in Iraq: Iraq is highly vulnerable increase access of rural communities to water and to climate change; particularly, increasing enhance their capacity to manage water and temperatures and water scarcity, decreasing agro-pastoral resources in the project areas using precipitation, and more frequent extreme a participatory approach to community-based weather events (i.e. floods, droughts, and heat development. Project activities target both waves). These changes have direct and women and men and include the promotion of immediate impacts on sectors crucial to Iraq’s innovative approaches to mobilizing surface and economic and social development (agriculture, groundwater for consumption and small-scale water, and public health), in addition to recovery community agricultural and livestock production, including the construction and April 2018 · Number 168· 2 rehabilitation of cisterns, open-air reservoirs, communities to build resilience and adapt to wells, and fisheries. It also has worked to climate impacts utilizing a conflict sensitive strengthen related fragile institutions and public approach. Furthermore, greater use of services through capacity building activities at technology, big data and advanced modeling the community level, as well as for regional present a significant opportunity to inform implementing agencies. So far, more than 6100 targeted and appropriate guidance and policy households have benefited from water mobilized options. With this approach, policymakers and from the project activities. Women have been practitioners can be better equipped to anticipate particularly impacted by the project, as improved and effectively plan for changes, avoid water mobilization has opened time for other unintended consequences, while strengthening productive activities. Inclusive community the long-term viability of the environment and engagement is a crucial element to prioritizing natural resources and encouraging cooperation and then implementing sub-projects in an and strengthened social contract. effective, and conflict-sensitive manner. Local representatives, with a strong showing from women, have already participated in planning and decision-making discussions. Conclusion: As the two examples above illustrate, progress is being made to address climate challenges in fragile and conflict contexts—with a focus on ensuring ownership by all community members. Projects like these are critical to build credible evidence of best practices and scale efforts to support countries and i k/bilder/the_need_for_conflict_sensitive- http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/31730 adaptation_to_climate_change.pdf viii 1468242098870/Main-report ii ibid http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/31730 iii WBG Climate Action Plan, 2016 1468242098870/Main-report iv ix http://www.international- http://pubdocs.worldbank.org/en/418471453478675 alert.org/sites/default/files/IFP_ClimateChange_Co 951/MENA-Strategy-Final-Dec-2015.pdf nflictSensitiveResponsesAsia_EN_2011.pdf v x http://science.sciencemag.org/content/341/6151/12 https://www.researchgate.net/publication/26330551 35367 6_A_Conflict- vi https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10584- Sensitive_Approach_to_Climate_Change_Adaptation xi 014-1266-1 vii http://unfccc.int/paris_agreement/items/9444.php https://www.adelphi.de/en/system/files/mediathe April 2018 · Number 168· 3