99943 Central Asia Energy-Water Development Program PROGRESS REPORT 2014 © 2015 The World Bank 1818 H Street NW, Washington, DC 20433 Telephone: +1 (202) 473-1000 Internet: www.worldbank.org The 2014 CAEWDP Team Daryl Fields, CAEWDP Program Manager; Energy-Water Linkages Pillar Lead Sunil Kumar Khosla, Energy Development Pillar Lead IJsbrand De Jong, Water Productivity Pillar Lead Abena Aku o-Akoto, Partnership Specialist Regina Nesiama, Senior Program Assistant Acknowledgments Abena Aku o-Akoto prepared and coordinated production of this report with assistance from Susae Elanchenny (Consultant). The report was drafted in large part by Mary Mugala (Consultant) and Bradley Hiller (Consultant). Editorial review was provided by Nansia Constantinou (Communications O cer) and Heather Worley (Senior Communications O cer). Document design was created by Debra Malovany (Graphic Designer). Disclaimer This work is a product of The World Bank with external contributions. 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Any queries on rights and licenses, including subsidiary rights, should be addressed to the O ce of the Publisher, The World Bank, 1818 H Street NW, Washington, DC 20433, USA; fax: +1 (202) 522-2422; email: pubrights@worldbank.org. PHOTO INFORMATION Unless otherwise noted, all photos are ©World Bank. FRONT COVER: Water pipe. Ferghana Valley, Uzbekistan. p. 1: Boys gather water. Kyrgyz Republic. p. 7: Construction of the Intumak Dam. Kazakhstan. p. 11: Participants at CAEWDP’s Second Climate Knowledge Forum in Almaty, Kazakhstan, May 2014. p. 14: A boy doing homework by candlelight. Tajikistan. p. 15: Moinak Substation. Kazakhstan. p. 18: Women collect water. Tajikistan. p. 19: Water treatment plant. Dushanbe, Tajikistan. p. 20: An irrigation facility. Kyrgyz Republic. p. 21: Nurek Dam. Tajikistan. p. 23: A flooded village. Kazakhstan. p. 24: Pamir Mountains. Tajikistan. p. 25: A farmer plants crops. Tajikistan. p. 27: CAEWDP workshop participants test the Spatial Agent app in Almaty, Kazakhstan. p. 32: A CAEWDP workshop on IWRM in Ashgabat, Turkmenistan, November 2014. p. 33: A CAEWDP workshop on IWRM in Tashkent, Uzbekistan, October 2014. p. 39: Agriculture field. Tajikistan. BACK COVER: Pamir Energy Public-Private Partnership Project. Badakhshan, Tajikistan. Photo Credit: Pamir Energy Company. Central Asia Energy-Water Development Program (CAEWDP) PROGRESS REPORT 2014 ii CAEWDP PROGRESS REPORT 2014 CONTENTS EXECUTIVE SUMMARY. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1 THE CHALLENGE OF WATER AND ENERGY SECURITY IN CENTRAL ASIA . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7 Energy. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8 Water . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8 Climate Change. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8 Understanding the Linkages . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9 A Balanced Approach to Energy and Water Security. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9 Pillars, Outcomes, and Results . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10 2014 PROGRAM HIGHLIGHTS & ACHIEVEMENTS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11 The Energy Development Pillar . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13 Analytical Development: Upgrading the Knowledge Foundation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13 Institutional Strengthening: Shaping the Right Strategies . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14 Investment preparation: Exploring Investment Possibilities . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16 The Water Productivity Pillar. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17 Analytical Development: Upgrading the Knowledge Foundation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18 Institutional Strengthening: Shaping the Right Strategies . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19 Investment Preparation: Exploring Investment Possibilities . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20 The Energy-Water Linkages Pillar . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21 Analytical Development: Upgrading the Knowledge Foundation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22 Institutional Strengthening: Shaping the Right Strategies . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 28 Investment Preparation: Exploring Investment Possibilities . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 32 TRUST FUND MANAGEMENT . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 34 Program Administration . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 35 Donor Engagement . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 35 Donor Commitments and Contributions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 36 Financial Management . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 36 Portfolio Summary for the Multi-Donor Trust Fund. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 36 Outreach and Communications . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 36 LOOKING FORWARD . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 39 iii ACRONYMS AND ABBREVIATIONS AralDIF Aral Sea Basin Dynamic Information Framework NOAA National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration ADB Asia Development Bank ASBmm Aral Sea Basin Management Model ASBP-3 Third Aral Sea Basin Plan BEAM Basin Economic Allocation Model BT Barki Tajik CA Central Asia CAEWDP Central Asia Energy-Water Development Program CAMP4CA Climate Adaptation & Mitigation Program for Central Asia CAREC Central Asia Regional Economic Cooperation CASA-1000 1000 Electricity Transmission and Trade Project for Central Asia and South Asia CA-WaRM Central Asia Water Resources Management CDKN Climate and Development Knowledge Network CER Center for Economic Research CoP Community of Practice CPF Country Partnership Framework CSOs Civil Society Organizations C4D Collaboration for Development DCC Energy Donor Coordination Committee DFID UK Department for International Development DG DEVCO Directorate-General for International Cooperation & Development (European Commission) EAP Energy Action Plan EC European Commission ECA Europe and Central Asia iv CAEWDP PROGRESS REPORT 2014 EC-IFAS Executive Committee of the International Fund for Saving the Aral Sea ESA European Space Agency ESCC Energy Sector Coordinating Committee ESW Economic Sector Work EU European Union GEF Global Environment Facility GIZ German Society for International Cooperation HPP Hydropower Plant ICSD Central Asia Interstate Commission on Sustainable Development ICT Information and Communication Technology IDA International Development Association ITS Information Technology Services IWRM Integrated Water Resources Management M&E Monitoring and Evaluation MDTF Multi-Donor Trust Fund MTPP Implementing Medium-Term Priority Projects NASA National Aeronautics and Space Administration QER Quality Enhancement Review SDC Swiss Agency for Development and Cooperation SECO The Swiss State Secretariat for Economic Affairs TA Technical Assistance TTL Task Team Leader TWG Central Asia Technical Working Group on Climate Change UNECE United Nations Economic Commission for Europe UNRCCA United Nations Regional Centre for Preventive Diplomacy for Central Asia USAID United States Agency for International Development USGS United States Geological Survey WPO Web Program Office WSS Water Sanitation and Supply WUA Water User Association EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Executive Summary 2 CAEWDP PROGRESS REPORT 2014 T his Progress Report describes activities, resource management. In turn, this has led to sig- accomplishments, and management nificant losses in economic welfare, periods of water of the Central Asia Energy-Water and energy shortages and related tensions, as well Development Program (CAEWDP)1 for as continuous environmental degradation. However, the period of January 1 to December 31, 2014. there are opportunities to increase regional agri- cultural production e ciency, such as by improving THE IDEA production infrastructure and technology and by CAEWDP was formally established as a trust fund strengthening water productivity. in 2010 by the Government of Switzerland and In theory, each country can import and export the World Bank. The Program supports the Central the most appropriate energy form at the appropriate Asian (CA) countries (Kazakhstan, the Kyrgyz time to mutual advantage, and di erences in energy Republic, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan) services can be optimally combined to reduce costs and the World Bank’s twin goals to reduce poverty and mitigate supply risks. However, the current and ensure shared prosperity through long-term reality of the energy-water nexus in Central Asia is economic growth and sustainability. By balancing far o from this theory. E orts to enhance water donor support with national and regional objectives, and energy security in the region are thus crucial. CAEWDP is able to enhance cooperation and the Increasing energy and water security will also reduce promotion of integrated energy and water develop- the e ects of water-related disasters, which impact ment initiatives at the regional as well as national the safety and livelihoods of the countries’ popula- levels. The Program activities address the three pil- tions. Hence, addressing energy and water linkages lars of Energy Development, Water Productivity, is a critical component in achieving regional secu- and Energy-Water Linkages by producing three rity and stability, as well as in promoting economic outcomes: support for diagnostics and analysis, growth and shared prosperity. preparation of investments, and the strengthening of national and regional institutions. PROGRAM HIGHLIGHTS AND KEY MESSAGES In 2014, CAEWDP underwent a transformational CAEWDP underwent significant expansion dur- change, as the focus of CAEWDP activities evolved ing 2014, reaching a total of 32 activities at the from diagnostics and analytics to technical assistance national (Tajikistan, the Kyrgyz Republic, Kazakhstan, (TA) and investment identification. Uzbekistan) and regional levels—up from 22 activi- ties in 2013—and covering five World Bank sectors: THE CHALLENGES Agriculture and Rural Development; Energy; Social CAEWDP’s role is particularly important given the Development; Environment; and Urban. This evolu- geographical and institutional complexities of the tion in the composition of the program allowed for CA energy-water nexus. Surface water resources are steady achievements in the results framework objec- concentrated in two major rivers—the Syr Darya and tives across the Energy Development and Energy- Amu Darya—which are key drivers of regional eco- Water Linkages pillars. With 28 activities under nomic growth and development, but which contain implementation and another 22 approved under complex hydrological characteristics and are increas- the May 2014 Call for Proposals, the Program is fast ingly vulnerable to the e ects of climate change. becoming a driver of progress in energy-water man- Upstream countries, generally endowed with rich agement in CA. New activities in 2014: water sources, typically prioritize hydropower (i) leveraged CAEWDP-funded diagnostic stud- energy generation in the winter to supply domestic ies into technical assistance with CA counterparts, and industrial users, while downstream countries are building core capacity for energy and water security particularly reliant on summer flows for agricultural in the region; (ii) expanded the program’s reach into and other purposes. The uneven distribution of new and innovative areas, including social account- water within the region is compounded by a grow- ability; (iii) deepened linkages with the World Bank ing population, a highly fragmented institutional and development partners’ investment portfolios; system, and the di culty in attaining consensus over and (iv) increased and improved partnerships with beneficiaries through recipient-executed grants and 1 Also referred to in this Progress Report as “The Program.” collaboration with regional institutions. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 3 Consistent with its commitment to invest- strengthening knowledge platforms; and USAID ment preparation, CAEWDP has also supported on joint research initiative and climate change. four significant regional projects by accessing CAEWDP welcomes opportunities to co-finance and regional International Development Agency (IDA) coordinate energy and water initiatives in the region. resources as well as grant funding from programs The 2014 achievements in each of the Program’s such as the Global Environment Facility (GEF). three pillars are highlighted below. These four regional projects are; the Central Asia Hydrometeorology Modernization Project (CAHMP); ENERGY DEVELOPMENT PILLAR the CASA-1000 regional power trade project; Central Asia’s mixed energy resource system com- and two projects currently under preparation on prises significant oil, gas, and coal reserves in the regional climate change adaptation and regional downstream countries and substantial hydropower water resources management. Similarly, the World potential in the upstream countries. The region’s Bank’s improved partnership with the Executive hydropower resources in particular have the poten- Committee of the International Fund for Saving the tial to help all CA countries meet their electricity Aral Sea (EC-IFAS) resulted in the identification of a needs on a seasonal basis and in the most cost e ec- water resources management project that will help tive and environmentally friendly manner, while also implement the five-country Third Aral Sea Basin Plan serving as a source of export revenue. (ASBP-3) under a Memorandum of Understanding The Energy Development Pillar of CAEWDP aims signed between the two institutions. A fifth invest- to promote and study high-value energy investments ment project in the Tajikistan energy sector is also that focus on energy security, energy e ciency, trade under preparation. These projects o er the oppor- and accountability, infrastructure planning, and insti- tunity to simultaneously strengthen national and tutional development. This pillar’s activities also pro- regional investments, institutions, and capacities. mote better coordination among the development CAEWDP is not managed as an isolated pro- partners working in this region. gram; it is increasingly linked to, complements, and Some pillar activity highlights from 2014 include: leverages the World Bank’s national lending portfolio The Tajikistan Energy Sector Dialogue activity in CA. CASA-1000 is a prime example of the deep- assisted Tajikistan’s national integrated power ened linkages between the Program and the World company with financial management through Bank’s investment portfolio. Beyond diagnostics, the the production of a note on the Financial Program provides technical assistance for capac- Assessment of the company and the prepara- ity building in the Kyrgyz Republic and Tajikistan tion of a Quasi-Fiscal Deficit Assessment of the to enable the implementation of the CASA-1000 power sector, both of which have served as an project. Donor partnerships and collaborations have analytical basis for discussing the macroeco- also been instrumental in helping to achieve results. nomic impact of the energy sector with the With the addition of the US Agency for International Government and development partners. Development (USAID) to the Multi-Donor Trust Fund (MDTF), the Program was able to expand sup- The Tajikistan: Long Term Sustainable Energy port for activities in climate change that helped to Sector Strategy & Continuing Role of CAEWDP move the climate agenda forward on the regional study provided an overview of a long-term sus- and national stage in Central Asia. Other key part- tainable energy strategy for Tajikistan based on nerships are evolving—in particular with the United analysis, actions, and roles of key development Nations Regional Centre for Preventive Diplomacy partners, particularly CAEWDP. The finalized for Central Asia (UNRCCA) on high-level trans- document will serve as a basis for discussion boundary dialogue and agreements—and opportuni- with the Government of Tajikistan and other ties are arising to further expand coordination with development partners, as well as for reaching partners, such as the Swiss Government on building an agreement on milestones where CAEWDP on the meeting of all five Central Asian countries at can play an increasingly important role. the November 2014 Basel Conference on Integrated The Heating and Energy E ciency Assessment Water Resources Management (IWRM); the German for the Building Sector of the Kyrgyz Republic Society for International Cooperation (GIZ) on and Tajikistan activity identified viable heating 4 CAEWDP PROGRESS REPORT 2014 solutions, including energy e ciency measures The Social Impact Analysis of Water Supply and such as insulation of attics or replacement of Sanitation in Central Asia TA activity assessed windows, for the urban building sector of both consumer experiences with water supply and countries to help address winter power short- sanitation (WSS) services across a range of ages. All the key results and findings of the selected sites in Uzbekistan and determined assessment were summarized in a final report consumer readiness for reform. Data on con- for each country that will be published in sumer perceptions and impacts of current WSS early 2015. service access and quality were collected and The Enhancing Regional Power Trade in Central analyzed. A consultation draft that summarizes Asia activity supported preparation of materi- findings has been shared with the Government als on international experience with regional of Uzbekistan and the Center for Economic power trade as well as a series of consulta- Research (CER), a key Uzbek think tank. tions with CA countries and the regional Discussions were held with the CER to organize Coordination Dispatch Center. The activity a seminar in March 2015 to debate methods brought together the technical experts from the and findings with policy-makers and researchers. CA countries engaged on this issue and may help the relevant decision-makers to prioritize ENERGY WATER LINKAGES PILLAR the technical issues that must be addressed to The Energy-Water Linkages Pillar aims to improve the facilitate enhanced regional power trade. understanding of linkages between energy and water at national and regional levels through dialogue, WATER PRODUCTIVITY PILLAR strengthening information and analysis, and explor- The CA water sector faces many challenges, includ- ing the future impact of regional climate change. ing 50 percent (96 percent in Turkmenistan) of Some pillar activity highlights from 2014 include: irrigated lands a ected by salinization and water The CAEWDP Riparian Dialogue activity logging as a result of poor irrigation and drainage achieved, with considerable international sup- systems. CA countries are struggling to rehabilitate port, the 5th and final set of consultations on aging water infrastructure and to implement mod- the two Rogun hydropower plant (HPP) assess- ern technologies in irrigation, all of which has had ment studies. This involved active participa- adverse e ects on agricultural productivity and envi- tion from all six riparian countries (including ronmental protection in the region. Afghanistan) and brought together over 60 The Water Productivity Pillar aims to enhance the civil society organizations and more than 40 productive and e cient use of water in the agricul- members of the development and diplomatic tural and energy sectors through capacity building, communities. The meetings concluded with a institutional strengthening, and investment planning. request to continue the dialogue at a higher Some pillar activity highlights from 2014 include: level of engagement. The Strengthening Irrigation Governance TA The Central Asia Water and Energy Portal activity activity gathered data that found a large varia- seeks to improve public domain access to basic tion in the performance of local water man- spatial information related to water and energy agement institutions. A number of factors resources in a regional setting, using modern that appear to influence performance of local online tools to reach out to stakeholders. The institutional arrangements were identified and activity has made substantial progress in this successful practices recommended. The findings regard, especially through the development and should be able to generate discussions around promotion of a new mobile application (app)— what can be done to further scale-up factors for called Spatial Agent—that provides access to success, and how they can be tracked strategi- such data. cally at the national or project level in order to The Central Asia Climate Change Knowledge ensure conditions for good local water manage- Forum activity continued to build on ear- ment are in place across the countries. lier e orts to create a platform to promote EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 5 FIGURE 1: Multi-Donor Trust Fund Partners knowledge exchange and information shar- ing on a number of issues around climate- 6,000,000.00 resilient development and green growth. The preparation of the forum was cited as a lead- 5,000,000.00 ing example of team work and collaboration across the World Bank Group. As a result of the 4,000,000.00 five-country forum, a CA Technical Working Group on Climate Change (TWG) and the 3,000,000.00 Climate Adaptation & Mitigation Program for Asia (CAMP4CA) project were both initiated. 2,000,000.00 CAMP4CA’s objective is to enhance collabora- tion among CA stakeholders to improve national 1,000,000.00 and regional resilience to climate change. 0 The Central Asia Energy-Water Modeling activity SECO DFID USAID European aims to develop a strengthened energy-water Commission model and analytical framework for CA. A road- Pledges Contributions to date map was established based on extensive con- As of December 31, 2014 sultations and inputs from national specialists, as well as a first-ever six-country workshop on *Note: Contribution refers to funding received. Pledge refers to the amount donors have agreed to provide during the strengthening analysis of IWRM. Several activi- course of the administrative agreement. ties identified in the roadmap were initiated in 2014, ensuring continuity in the long-term task FIGURE 2: CAEWDP Disbursements by Pillar by Year of building an e ective knowledge platform. 2500 THE RISING TIDE 2258 In 2014 the multi-donor partnership was o cially extended from January 1, 2015 to December 31, 2000 2016 to enable the completion of program activi- ties. With the addition of the United States to the Thousands 1500 partnership in November 2014, total Program pledges now amount to US$11.3 million (Figure 1). 1000 91 percent of pledged funds have been allocated to specific activities, significantly increasing disburse- ments (Figure 2). The impact on Program profile, 500 404 507 294 confidence, and breadth is reflected in a dramatic 225 116 expansion of program activities and a transition from 0 0 102 0 0 0 19 diagnostics to action. In addition to processing new Energy Energy-Water Water activities and monitoring the completion of oth- Development Linkages Productivity ers, program management focused on: exploring 2011 2012 2013 2014 a partnership with the IFAS; reviewing the Results Framework; fundraising; and communications. Communication materials included the produc- tion of a mid-term newsletter highlighting program updates for the first half of the year and the 2014 last year, with identifiable results. The number of Progress Report. activities has increased by 50 percent from 22 to 32 between 2013 and 2014, and the reach of sectors LOOKING FORWARD and issues have broadened. Importantly, new activi- The evolution of the Central Asia Energy-Water ties are building on previous CAEWDP initiatives and Development Program has been significant over the findings, moving up the “value added ladder.” This is 6 CAEWDP PROGRESS REPORT 2014 particularly apparent in the three core components estimated at US$5.99 billion. It also opens new of energy security, the water knowledge platform opportunities to link capacity and technical assis- (and decisions support), and climate change, all of tance initiatives of development partners (e.g., GIZ, which are preparing investment projects based on USAID) with investment lending instruments for CAEWDP-funded analysis and technical assistance. additional benefit to the countries. In 2015, the Program management will An interim review of the Program, to be initi- strengthen this trend, completing some 10 analytical ated in 2015, will provide important insights on early and technical assistance activities and supporting program results and possible course corrections over the investment projects (both in implementation the next 24 months. Supported by new communi- and preparation) that demand a strong focus, given cations products, the review will enhance discus- their complexity and need to simultaneously address sion with Central Asia governments, development national and regional priorities. partners and stakeholders on the next steps for the The evolution of the Program o ers additional Program in its goal to strengthen energy and water opportunities to leverage the World Bank’s active security for the people of Central Asia. investment portfolio in Central Asia, currently THE CHALLENGE OF WATER AND ENERGY SECURITY IN CENT L ASIA 8 CAEWDP PROGRESS REPORT 2014 adverse consequences for water availability in criti- Energy cal crop-growing periods.2 Decisions in managing Central Asia is endowed with significant natural water have both domestic and regional implications energy resources. In pwarticular, the Kyrgyz Republic for water quality, ecological protection, and water and Tajikistan have abundant low carbon hydro- quantity / availability. Irrigation water demand is power potential; Kazakhstan has significant reserves likely to increase by up to 25 percent by the middle of oil, gas, and coal; Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan of the century, while water availability could decline have substantial gas reserves as well as some by up to 30–40 percent during the same period.3 reserves of oil; and Uzbekistan also contains coal At the same time, water management has feedback resources. Central Asia’s resources, if fully exploited, implications for energy security and system stabil- exceed domestic demand and represent key devel- ity through the management of reservoirs and their opment strengths of the region. In addition, a well- potential role in ancillary services such as power fre- functioning and interconnected energy system could quency regulation and reserve capacity. enable the region to manage di ering cost patterns, fuel mixes, and risk profiles (including reliability and fuel supply, such as hydrological variability). There Climate Change is also the potential for o setting demand patterns with cost and reliability benefits and for creating a Climate change is also expected to exacerbate positive environmental impact with an improved pressures on hydrological systems, with an overall and better-connected energy system. Energy export reduction in volume of water available, continu- potential both within and outside the region is also ing changes in temporal and spatial patterns, and high. While some of the potential of gas and oil is increased variability and extreme events. Rising tem- already exploited and new transmission lines (e.g. peratures and reducing precipitation in the region linking north and south Kazakhstan, and north and may hasten the disappearance of the Southern Aral south Tajikistan) have improved the energy distribu- Sea, while CA’s glaciers face accelerated melting tion situation, winter shortages continue to be per- caused by higher temperatures. Expectations are for vasive in the region. These are most pressing in the an increase in extreme conditions and a long term upstream countries of the Kyrgyz Republic decline in water resources (after 2050) as the mod- and Tajikistan, which mostly depend on hydropower, erating role of glaciers give way to dependence on but also extend to Uzbekistan and the southern part rain and snow alone. The CAEWDP-funded Climate of Kazakhstan. Change Technical Working Group (TWG), which includes experts from all five Central Asian countries, identified water and agriculture as the top climate- related concerns. Even without climate change, the Water pressures of economic and population growth are The Amu Darya and Syr Darya, which once had a likely to increase water stress by 2030. Thus, energy- combined flow equal to that of the Nile, are slowly water linkages are inextricable from regional stability shrinking. This, coupled with increasing demand and growth. Without the strengthening of regional for water for multiple uses, presents the region with cooperation, winter energy shortages and summer significant challenges. Allocating water among dif- water conflicts dominate the current Central Asia ferent uses and users requires evaluating choices picture, and cast a shadow on long-term develop- and tradeo s as well as opportunities and syner- ment in the region. gies. Alongside large existing and potential water storage capacity, the role of hydropower resources extends beyond power generation to meet other needs such as drinking water and irrigation. Of par- ticular concern is agriculture, a mainstay of several 2 World Bank Group. 2014. Turn Down the Heat: Confronting national economies, which needs irrigation water the New Climate Normal. pg. 173. Washington, DC: World Bank. © World Bank. https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/han- during the summer season. The timing of river flows dle/10986/20595 License: CC BY 3.0 IGO. is projected to shift from summer to spring, with 3 Ibid. THE CHALLENGE OF WATER AND ENERGY SECURITY IN CENTRAL ASIA 9 strengthening institutional capacity and supporting Understanding the Linkages institutions. It is this recognized need that presents During the Soviet era, water and energy manage- the best opportunity for engaging decision-makers ment was designed according to a regional approach in the region who are actively looking for solu- and was centrally managed: organized systems were tions to achieve energy and water security for their set up for energy and energy-water exchanges to respective populations, especially the poor and reap the benefits of coordination. However, the most vulnerable. political dynamic in the region is now characterized by increasing forms of national self-su ciency and tensions between neighboring countries, exacer- A Balanced Approach to Energy bated by the co-dependent infrastructure legacy of the Soviet era. CA currently lacks robust systems, and Water Security institutions, and infrastructure to jointly manage CAEWDP works to build long-term energy and water regional energy and water resources. security in the CA countries, combining national The current state of energy and water manage- activities with e orts to promote regional coordina- ment in the region is further confounded by factors tion. CAEWDP’s role is particularly important given that go beyond institutional di culties, such as, the geographical and institutional complexities of weak financial/commercial frameworks for financing CA’s energy-water linkages. By establishing sound energy trade; under-investment in energy resulting energy-water diagnostics and analytical tools, in generation deficits; constraints on transmission identifying priority infrastructure investments, and and related infrastructure; strong economic growth strengthening regional institutions, the Program’s that has increased demand and exacerbated deficits; long-term goals are to eliminate winter energy and di cult natural conditions characterized by shortages, enhance water productivity, and increase harsh winters and low precipitation. These circum- electricity trade within and outside the region. stances amount to a vicious cycle that creates an especially complex environment. There is value in FIGURE 3: The CAEWDP Pillars Central Asia Energy-Water Development Program: Three Pillars Energy Development Water Productivity Energy-Water Linkages Promote high value Enhance the productivity and Improve the understanding of energy investments e ciency of water use in both linkages between water and energy and management. agriculture and energy sectors. at the national and regional levels. Focus: Focus: Focus: • Winter energy security • Third Aral Sea Basin • Energy-water modeling. including infrastructure Management Program. • Regional hydrometeorology. planning. • New and rehabilitated • Climate vulnerability. • Energy trade. infrastructure for • Energy-water dialogue. • Energy accountability. irrigation e ciency. • Knowledge portal (web-based • Energy e ciency. • New technologies open access data). and e cient water supply services. 10 CAEWDP PROGRESS REPORT 2014 PILLARS, OUTCOMES, AND RESULTS To achieve these outcomes, the Program devel- The Program is based on three pillars (Figure 3): oped a comprehensive Results Framework, with the Under each pillar, the Program focuses on following overall objectives: three outcomes:4 1 At least three investment or policy options 1 Analytical Development: Upgrading the (two of which are targeted at Tajikistan and the Knowledge Foundation; Kyrgyz Republic) to strengthen the stability and 2 Institutional Strengthening: Shaping the Right predictability of power supplies; Strategies; and 2 At least two investment decisions on national 3 Investment Preparation: Exploring Investment level water or energy projects including a clear Possibilities. understanding of their transboundary implica- tions; and The Program funds activities at the country, 3 Sustainable institutions for improved water dia- multi-country, and regional levels. In so doing, it logue across Central Asia stakeholders. supports e orts by the countries to take advantage of their natural resources, and respects national pri- A fourth overall objective, to establish a Multi- orities while promoting regional prosperity. It fosters Donor Trust Fund, was achieved in 2011. dialogue across borders in order to reap the benefits of regional coordination and cooperation. Priorities include addressing severe shortages of energy in upstream countries and reducing the vulnerability of downstream countries to hydrological variability. 4 In this report, pillar activities are presented according to the three outcome areas. 2014 PROG M HIGHLIGHTS & ACHIEVEMENTS 12 CAEWDP PROGRESS REPORT 2014 I n collaboration with the European Commission Reservoir involving Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan; (EC), the Swiss State Secretariat for Economic a project to restore a portion of the Aral Sea in A airs (SECO), USAID and the UK Department Kazakhstan; a joint venture with the Swiss Agency for for International Development (DFID), the Development and Cooperation (SDC) to upgrade the CAEWDP work program expanded from US$1.2 water management and data system in the Kyrgyz million in 2013 to US$4.2 million in 2014. Notable Republic; and the establishment of an energy savings successes lie in climate change risk management, investment program at TALCO, Tajikistan’s largest strengthening the energy policy environment in aluminum company. The Program’s contributions Tajikistan, and building the foundations of a modern to new investments lie in analysis and investment knowledge platform for water management. preparation, such as modeling investment options; Leading the six-country5 consultation process on convening regional dialogue to, for example, iden- the Rogun Assessment studies, CAEWDP served as tify joint investments); and strengthening the policy a model for applying modern standards consistent environment in the energy sector. CAEWDP also with international conventions to transboundary complements and leverages the portfolios of other dialogue. Through CAEWDP’s continued support for development partners. For example, CAEWDP energy dialogue across all five countries, the World funds donor coordination e orts in Tajikistan Bank hosted the first meeting of First Deputy Prime on energy policy with its key partner, the Asian Ministers on transboundary water management in Development Bank (ADB); produced the Road Map more than four years, and was subsequently invited for Strengthening IWRM Analysis jointly with the to facilitate successive discussions. SDC and United Nations Economic Commission for CAEWDP is increasingly linked with, comple- Europe (UNECE); and partners with the UNRCCA in ments, and leverages the World Bank’s national the Rogun consultations and the UNRCCA’s regional lending portfolio in CA, which consists of over 30 dialogue on a cooperative framework for trans- energy and water investment projects and two boundary water management. Program highlights development policy operations. These include: a and achievements for each pillar are outlined in the study to improve the management of Tuyamuyun following chapters. 5 Hereafter, “six countries” refers to the five CA countries plus Afghanistan. . 32: NUMBER OF CAEWDP ACTIVITIES UNDER IMPLEMENTATION AT THE NATIONAL AND US$4.2 MILLION: REGIONAL LEVEL US$11.3 MILLION: VALUE OF IN 2014 TOTAL AMOUNT CAEWDP WORK OF DONOR PLEDGES TO PROGRAM IN 2014, CAEWDP AS OF ALMOST 3X THAT IN 2013 DECEMBER 31, 2014 2014 PROGRAM HIGHLIGHTS & ACHIEVEMENTS 13 BOX 1: Ongoing Challenges for CA’s Energy Development Current energy systems are becoming less reliable as the CA power system deteriorates. The region is trading 90 percent less energy than it did in the early 1990s. Although new transmission lines linking the north and south in Kazakhstan and Tajikistan have improved distribution, regional domestic needs are still not being met, with 2 million households across the region a ected by winter heat and power shortages each year. The Central Asian countries did not utilize opportunities to go after the “low-hanging fruit” of increasing benefits through increased cooperation, which would have helped in the rapid modernization of aged, Soviet-era infrastructure. The main challenges are to maintain and rehabilitate existing infrastructure, provide new generation infrastructure for energy-hungry, growing economies, and explore new models for energy trade—both within and outside the region. Pre-investment analysis for two options for e Energy Development Pillar stable and predictable winter power supply in In 2014, a number of Energy Development Pillar Tajikistan & the Kyrgyz Republic; activities were implemented, with a particular deep- National energy decisions that take into ening of linkages with the World Bank’s and devel- account regional implications of national opment partners’ investment portfolios. The main investments; analytical activities focused on heating and energy Strengthened institutional development (energy e ciency in the building sector. Meanwhile, institu- trade institutions); tional strengthening was concentrated in Tajikistan via an ongoing energy sector dialogue and by outlin- Increased political and financial support for ing a long-term sustainable energy sector strategy transmission infrastructure planning; and for discussion. Additionally, there was a strong focus At least one new investment decision that on enhancing regional power trade, particularly includes inter-/intra-regional implications. via advisory support and investment preparation A synopsis of analytical development, institu- for the CASA-1000 project for the Kyrgyz Republic tional strengthening, and investment preparation and Tajikistan. Box 1 outlines some of the ongo- activities in the Energy Development Pillar is pro- ing energy development challenges. Several new vided below. and important initiatives were launched in 2014, including the preparation of an investment project ANALYTICAL DEVELOPMENT: UPGRADING THE for mitigating the winter energy crisis in Tajikistan; KNOWLEDGE FOUNDATION the improvement of the district heating system in the Kyrgyz Republic; the study of energy markets in Heating and Energy E ciency Assessment Kazakhstan and their lessons for the region; and an for the Building Sector of the Kyrgyz Republic assessment of subsidies in the Uzbekistan energy and Tajikistan sector and their impact. (Activity Status: Ongoing; CAEWDP Grant: CAEWDP’s Energy Development Pillar aims to US$170,000; Task Team Leader (TTL): Ani promote and study high-value investments that Balabanyan) focus on winter energy security, energy e ciency, The development objective of this activity is to enhancing trade and accountability, infrastructure identify viable heating solutions, including energy- planning, and institutional development. In 2014, e ciency measures, for the urban building sector of progress was made with regard to the overall pillar the Kyrgyz Republic and Tajikistan to help the two objectives of: countries address winter power shortages. National energy plans in at least two countries As part of the activity, a detailed situational that take inter- and intra-regional energy into analysis for each of the two target countries was consideration; conducted. This included a detailed overview of the physical, institutional, and regulatory characteristics of the urban heating and buildings sector in each of 14 CAEWDP PROGRESS REPORT 2014 the two countries, with specific focus on four rep- development policy operation conducted by the resentative cities. The stocktaking of ongoing initia- World Bank). At the request of the Ministry of Energy tives and lessons learnt was used to include specific and Industry, and based on the results and recom- case studies in the final report to highlight relevant mendations of the assessment, the World Bank also implementation experience and lessons for moving initiated a follow-up TA activity with the District forward. A second intermediate report evaluated the Heating company in Bishkek to support the develop- various supply and demand-side heating options ment of a detailed investment and implementation and investment measures that are available for dif- plan. This investment plan will help development ferent customer segments. A third intermediate partners to have inputs for their investment project report highlighted the specific investment and policy in district heating access and e ciency improvement recommendations for each of the two countries. The in the Kyrgyz Republic. key findings and recommendations were summa- rized in two draft final reports in 2014, one for each INSTITUTIONAL STRENGTHENING: SHAPING country, including an update of some of the data/ THE RIGHT STRATEGIES analysis to take into account recent developments in Tajikistan Energy Sector Dialogue the heating sector. The final reports will be published in 2015. (Activity Status: Ongoing; CAEWDP Grant: In terms of follow-on activities, the World Bank US$170,000; TTL: Yuriy Myroshnychenko) is preparing an investment-lending Winter Energy The strategic objective of the Tajikistan Energy Sector Project in Tajikistan, which is based on the find- Dialogue is to support Tajikistan’s e orts in reducing ings and recommendations of the Heating Report winter energy shortages and improving the perfor- and other activities related to managing the winter mance of the energy sector. This activity builds on energy deficit. This work would also be funded by the CAEWDP-funded Tajikistan Winter Energy Crisis the CAEWDP trust fund. In the Republic, the state study and supports three areas, including (i) assis- regulator is developing a transparent tari -setting tance to Barki Tajik (BT) on financial management; methodology and a clear performance and report- (ii) participation in the Energy Donor Coordination ing framework for the heating sector based on Committee (DCC); and (iii) assessment of the energy policy recommendations included in the draft report sector’s macroeconomic impact and contingent (and also supported by a parallel TA activity and liabilities on the state budget. 2014 PROGRAM HIGHLIGHTS & ACHIEVEMENTS 15 All activities were largely implemented during 2014. The key activity outcomes are as follows: (i) The development partner community position on key issues in the energy sector is aligned and, as a result, coordination among donors has improved. Development partners have a consolidated position on Tajikistan energy issues that is reflected in their respective energy sector dialogues with the Tajikistan authorities; (ii) A note on the Financial Assessment of BT and Quasi-Fiscal Deficit of the Tajikistan Power Sector has been prepared and will serve as an analytical basis for discussing the energy sector; and (iii) Valuation of BT fixed assets and inventory has been completed, and evaluation of BT payables to handle greater challenges as crucial infrastructure and receivables is at an advanced stage of prog- needs emerge to solve development challenges. ress and should be completed in February 2015. Enhancing Regional Power Trade in Central Asia Tajikistan: Long-Term Sustainable Energy Sector (Activity Status: Ongoing; CAEWDP Grant: Strategy & Continuing Role of CAEWDP US$180,000; TTL: Yuriy Myroshnychenko) The objectives of the Enhancing Regional Power (Activity Status: ongoing; CAEWDP Grant: Trade in Central Asia activity are (i) to explore US$40,000; TTL: Sunil Kumar Khosla) options for, and facilitate discussions on, power The objective of this report was to provide an over- trade and cooperation between CA countries with a view of a long-term sustainable energy strategy for view to increase e ciency of their respective power Tajikistan. The report synthesized a recommended systems, enhance reliability and security of electric- long-term sustainable energy strategy—based on ity supply, reduce power shortages, and avoid GHG the analysis, actions, and roles of key development emissions; and ii) to enhance knowledge among partners, particularly CAEWDP—to serve as a basis power-sector stakeholders in CA countries of inter- for discussion between development partners and national best practices in regional trade. the Government of Tajikistan and for agreeing The activity objectives have partially been met. on milestones. The knowledge of power-sector stakeholders in CA Four key long-term challenges for Tajikistan’s countries has improved. International best prac- energy sector were identified, namely: (i) strength- tices were shared during bilateral consultations and ening energy security; (ii) improving governance, the Central Asia Regional Economic Cooperation transparency, and accountability; (iii) ensuring finan- (CAREC)’s Energy Sector Coordination Committee cial viability; and (iv) meeting and managing con- (ESCC) meetings in 2014. Power-sector stakehold- sumer (residential and industrial) needs. A general ers were familiarized with the lessons learned with roadmap for addressing these long-term challenges respect to regional power trade models and experi- was presented, while specific goals and actions ence in the EU, the Balkans, and Central America. A for addressing each challenge were also outlined. list of technical issues that hamper regional power Finally, CAEWDP’s role and contribution to energy- trade was produced through consultations with indi- sector challenges in Tajikistan and regionally were vidual CA countries. described. CAEWDP has played an important role This activity supported preparation of materials to date as a regional facilitator (between countries on international experiences with regional power and development partners) and in the provision trade and a series of consultations with CA countries of diagnostics (e.g., the Tajikistan Winter Energy and the Coordination Dispatch Center (which helped Crisis study). In the longer term, it is anticipated that identify priority technical issues to be addressed to CAEWDP will help to open up further opportunities 16 CAEWDP PROGRESS REPORT 2014 allow for enhanced regional power trade in CA). All Agreement and Power Purchase Agreement. countries supported the idea of a regional work- The advisors are now working on finalizing the shop to learn from international experience and remaining agreements. discuss CA specific solutions to the technical issues. The other expected results from this activity are: In preparation for the workshop, a note on the cur- (i) benefit-sharing schemes and construction and rent status of key technical issues such as metering, operation contracts for electricity trade within the transit methodology, energy and capacity pricing CASA-1000 project; and (ii) improved knowledge was prepared. However, a workshop has not yet about energy trade, enabling the Governments to taken place because of the importance placed on CA negotiate and participate as equal partners in other governments’ ownership. While the knowledge base regional energy trade initiatives. The activity will of steps needed to be addressed at the technical achieve these results by implementing the main experts level and exposure to international experi- components of the activity, which are to provide: ence have been enhanced, without endorsement of Technical Assistance to support the Kyrgyz and power trade at the highest political level of CA coun- Tajik governments and the working groups to tries, energy-sector counterparts have been reluctant advance CASA-1000 groundwork by financing to commit resources and truly engage in taking country advisors with technical, commercial, meaningful steps in this endeavor. We hope the legal, environmental, social, and other neces- recent lead taken by Kazakhstan in this respect will sary expertise; and to support other inter- and encourage other CA governments to actively engage intra-regional energy trade initiatives by financ- on this topic, providing momentum for this activity. ing relevant assessments, studies, consultations with stakeholders, and public outreach pro- INVESTMENT PREPARATION: EXPLORING grams; and INVESTMENT POSSIBILITIES Logistic support for the several face-to-face CASA-1000 Advisory Support for the Kyrgyz meetings needed to agree on multi-country Republic and Tajikistan Regional Trade international agreements. It will also assist Initiatives Project Tajikistan and the Kyrgyz Republic to facilitate (Activity Status: Ongoing; CAEWDP Grant: dialogue and the development of regional US$600,0006; TTL: Mirlan Aldayarov) energy trade initiatives (ongoing or future), as The objective of this activity is to facilitate the well as incremental operating expenses for the preparation of the CASA-1000 project7 and other Project Implementation Unit. possible regional energy trade initiatives for the Capacity building activities were carried out in Kyrgyz Republic and Tajikistan. The CASA-1000 2014 under the CASA-1000 Advisory Support activity project would help make the most e cient use of and have to date: (i) provided grants to Tajikistan and clean hydropower resources in the CA countries by the Kyrgyz Republic to support the governments with enabling them to transfer and sell their electricity their groundwork on the CASA-1000 project through surplus during the summer months to electricity- the financing of advisory services from legal, com- deficient countries in South Asia. mercial, and other relevant experts, and (ii) equipped This activity has resulted in the strengthened the beneficiary governments with the technical capacity of the Governments of the Kyrgyz Republic expertise to negotiate the CASA-1000 agreements. and Tajikistan to negotiate commercial framework The activities are ongoing and will continue through- agreements, resulting in the signing of two core out the duration of the CASA-1000 project. commercial agreements for the project, a Master Energy Vulnerability to Climate Change 6 This amount is comprised of US$300,000 for the Tajikistan (Activity Status: Ongoing; CAEWDP Grant: Advisory Support for Regional Trade Initiatives Project and US$300,000 for the Kyrgyz Republic Advisory Support for Regional US$50,000; TTL: Daryl Fields) Trade Initiatives Project. The overall objective of this activity is to support 7 The objective of the CASA-1000 project is to create the con- beneficiary countries in CA in understanding climate ditions for sustainable electricity trade between the Central Asian countries of Tajikistan and the Kyrgyz Republic and the South Asian change-induced energy sector vulnerabilities and countries of Afghanistan and Pakistan. 2014 PROGRAM HIGHLIGHTS & ACHIEVEMENTS 17 in building resilience through the development of projections; (ii) augment the analysis of water coordinated adaptation policies. The project con- hydrology and glacial melting; and (iii) enable an solidates a vulnerability assessment of the impacts, integration of hydrologic economic optimization risks, and the adaptive capacity of the energy sector. modeling into the study. The assessment will help guide decision-makers on options for current and future investments in and management of power generation and transmission/ e Water Productivity Pillar distribution assets. The activity is divided into three parts: 2014 marked an important transition for CAEWDP by including water supply and sanitation studies Part 1 focuses on consolidating and critically into its analytical foundation in response to strong reviewing existing studies for consistency, demand for improved WSS services, and in view of potential for aggregation, and robustness; the importance of satisfying demand for good qual- Part 2 includes a country-level analysis of ity drinking water. Pillar activities were expanded Tajikistan based on the HEAT methodology of into new and innovative areas, including social previous country-level studies, augmenting accountability. The scope of institutional strengthen- specific aspects based on existing studies and ing and investment preparation activities focused addressing gaps; and on irrigation e ciency and governance. Box 2 out- Part 3 includes a CA regional-level study con- lines some of the ongoing challenges in the Water solidating descriptions of risks across CA, high- Productivity Pillar. lighting commonalities and di erences. The CAEWDP Water Productivity Pillar seeks to increase productivity and the e ciency of water use The objective of the funding from CAEWDP is in the water and energy sectors. In 2014, progress was to complement the analysis carried out under the made with regard to the overall pillar objectives of: project financed by a Climate and Development Knowledge Network (CDKN) grant of US$500,000, The strengthening of IFAS’ capacity in agricul- thereby ensuring that the overall development tural water management and improving objective will be met. The CAEWDP grant will (i) communication between national agricultural allow adding one more climate marker scenario, water specialists; enabling analysis of more variability of runo BOX 2: Ongoing Challenges for CA’s Water Productivity Water resources management in CA is arguably even more complex and challenging than energy. Water resources currently support economic and social activity, including hydropower development and agriculture, as well as provide for basic consumer needs, however, there are a number of development challenges. Across Central Asia, over 10 million hectares of agricultural land depends on irrigation. On average, agriculture contributes 11 percent to national GDP, and accounts for 20–25 percent of employment, depending on the country. While large-scale irrigation development occurred in the 1970s and 1980s, the canal infrastructure has since come to the end of its economic life. Looking ahead, population growth, climate change, and the need for increased agri- cultural production will lead to increased competition over the region’s water resources. With irrigated agriculture accounting for over 80 percent of all water use, water savings to satisfy future competing demand from other sectors will need to be generated by using irrigation water more e ciently. In addition, irrigation ine ciency comes at high costs: in Uzbekistan, 60 percent of the budget of the Ministry responsible for irrigation is allocated to electricity costs to run the many pumping stations that lift water from the Amu Darya and Syr Darya. It is estimated that a 10 percent increase in e ciency could potentially save US$188 million in reduced electricity costs at the regional level. For the national governments in Central Asia, the rehabilitation of hydraulic assets and the introduction of innovative irriga- tion technologies are therefore key priorities for improving food security and livelihoods, and for increasing the resil- ience to hydrologic variability. 18 CAEWDP PROGRESS REPORT 2014 The identification of infrastructure and manage- from the Soviet era. The study will contribute to ment opportunities (including investments) for informing country governments on prioritizing WSS- increased agricultural water productivity; sector reform and investment needs. The expected The preparation of national action plans for outcomes of the activity include: increasing agricultural water productivity; and i. Improving sector knowledge and outlining pos- The incorporation of an understanding of sible strategic policy reforms to better inform regional water productivity in the national governments and donors’ policy/strategy; and plans, policies and / or investments of at least ii. Participation and engagement of stakehold- two countries. ers in the final activity workshop scheduled for September 2015. A synopsis of analytical development, institu- tional strengthening, and investment preparation The selection and contracting of a well-qualified activities in the Water Productivity Pillar is provided consulting consortium to conduct the study was below. completed as of December 2014. The launch of the study was announced to countries and prelimi- ANALYTICAL DEVELOPMENT: UPGRADING THE nary data gathering also began in December 2014. KNOWLEDGE FOUNDATION Services will commence in full in January 2015. Upon completion of data collection and analy- Analysis of Water Supply and Sewerage Services sis, a report is expected as the final activity output. in Central Asia Consultation and dissemination of the study are (Activity Status: Ongoing; CAEWDP Grant: expected to deepen WSS policy dialogue with US$270,000; TTL: Pier Francesco Mantovani) governments towards strengthened sector partner- The objective of the Analysis of Water Supply and ships, spurring support for institutional reform and Sewerage Services in Central Asia study is to provide increased investments. a diagnostic of the current status and challenges of water supply and sanitation (WSS) in four key CA Social Impact Analysis of Water Supply and countries—Kazakhstan, the Kyrgyz Republic, Tajikistan Sanitation Services in Central Asia and Turkmenistan—and to outline policy priorities (Activity Status: Ongoing; CAEWDP Grant: towards improved access, quality, e ciency, and sus- US$170,000; TTL: Robertus Antonius Swinkels) tainability of WSS services. The study will achieve this The objective of the Social Impact Analysis Water by analyzing the infrastructure, service, institutional Supply and Sanitation in Central Asia TA activity is to framework, and financial dimensions of WSS sector promote the engagement of consumers and the use development, in part based on primary data collec- of evidence in developing WSS policies and plans tion across countries sharing common sector legacies for equitable access. This activity was carried out in Uzbekistan and was achieved by: (i) conducting an assessment of consumer perceptions and impacts of current WSS service access and quality; and (ii) strengthening the capacity of country counterparts in engaging customers and stakeholders in policy development and social accountability in WSS ser- vice and investments. This study assessed consumer experiences with current WSS services across a range of selected sites in Uzbekistan and determined consumer readiness for reform. First, the study analyzed how surveyed consumers currently meet their WSS needs and what proportion of their household budget is spent on meeting those needs. Second, it assessed the inter- action between consumers and service providers. Third, it examined stakeholder views and positions 2014 PROGRAM HIGHLIGHTS & ACHIEVEMENTS 19 on service modernization needs and assessed con- sumer willingness to pay for quality networked WSS services. Comparisons were made across consumers in a selection of cities, small towns, and rural areas; between consumers who are connected to a net- worked service and those who are not; and between households in the bottom 40 percent and top 60 percent of the income distribution (as estimated through a wealth index). As of December 2014, the collection and analysis of the data on consumer perceptions and impacts of current WSS service access and qual- ity has been completed. A consultation draft that summarizes findings was prepared and shared with the Government of Uzbekistan and a key Uzbek stakeholders across the region. Uzbekistan was iden- think tank, the Center for Economic Research tified as a pilot for this activity. (CER). Verbal feedback has been obtained from the Current distribution and management systems Minister of Finance, and comments are expected for irrigation water pose significant challenges to from the Minister of Economy and the Utility Agency e ective and e cient water allocation in Uzbekistan (Uzkummunizmat). Discussions have also been held and other CA countries. Irrigation water reforms face with CER to organize a discussion seminar in March a number of governance deficiencies as water man- 2015 to debate methods and findings with policy- agement structures at both local and national levels makers and researchers, provided permission from frequently su er from issues around transparency, the Uzkummunizmat is obtained. accountability, and division of responsibility. Local For 2015, planned follow-up activities include: and national governing institutions also tend to face (i) incorporating solicited feedback from the financial sustainability challenges, being unable to Uzkummunizmat in the final draft; (ii) organizing a finance repairs and maintenance, let alone invest- dissemination event with CER to debate findings; (iii) ment. At present, a low-level equilibrium (whereby raise awareness of the Poverty Social Impact Analysis most farmers settle for sub-optimal outcomes) (PSIA) methodology; and (iv) explore interest for fur- appears to be the norm. ther capacity building activities on the methodology. While considerable research has been carried out on Water User Associations (WUAs), much of INSTITUTIONAL STRENGTHENING: SHAPING it assumes that participation is the cornerstone THE RIGHT STRATEGIES to success, while insu cient attention has been paid to incentives, costs, and benefits. Change in Strengthening Irrigation Governance local level institutional arrangements is not easily (Activity Status: Ongoing; CAEWDP Grant: induced through outside interventions, and more US$170,000; TTL: Robertus Antonius Swinkels) can be done to learn from existing innovations and The development objective of the Assessment of to promote their scaling up. Despite the urgent Factors that Influence the Quality of Local Irrigation need for practical solutions for irrigation water gov- Governance TA activity is to contribute to better ernance and management, significant knowledge irrigation water management in CA through the fol- gaps remain. Systematic analysis to identify factors lowing expected activity outcomes: (i) identifying of success and scaling up of good practices is rare. factors and innovative practices that positively a ect Irrigation and drainage schemes in Uzbekistan and performance of local irrigation water management other CA countries require better methods for diag- institutions; (ii) preparing an associated diagnostic nosing local institutional arrangements for water tool that will help in the design of program interven- management arrangements, identifying shortcom- tions for ongoing or future irrigation operations; and ings, and proposing ideas for program interventions. (iii) facilitating exchange of good practice experi- Progress has been made towards the first and ences and knowledge of what works among relevant second components of the objective. Data has been 20 CAEWDP PROGRESS REPORT 2014 gathered from eight case study sites on factors that is expected that these studies will be initiated in influence the quality of local institutional arrange- FY16. The Tajikistan study provided a number of ments for management of irrigation and drainage important findings: water. The data suggests that there is a large variation Irrigated areas are currently under-supplied in performance of local water management institu- and irrigation e ciency is as low as 30 percent. tions. A number of factors that appear to influence Improving irrigation e ciency will therefore not performance of local institutional arrangements have lead to reduced abstractions or reduced pump- been identified. The findings should generate discus- ing costs. Rather, improving e ciency will lead sions around what can be done to further scale up to better irrigation and higher crop yields; the presence of these factors, and how they can be Some of the most important sources of inef- tracked on a more strategic scale at the national or ficiency are pump outages as a result of unreli- project level to help ensure that the conditions for able electricity and excessive wear because of good local water management are high silt loads; in place. E orts to transfer management responsibility to WUAs first need to ensure a reliable supply of INVESTMENT PREPARATION: EXPLORING water to the command area; INVESTMENT POSSIBILITIES Improving irrigation e ciency from 30 to 60 Promoting Irrigation E ciency percent would generate US$983 million in (Activity Status: Ongoing; CAEWDP Grant: reduced Operations and Maintenance (O&M) US$250,000; TTL: IJsbrand Harko de Jong) costs and higher agricultural productivity for The overall project development objective of this Tajikistan; and activity is to assist the five CA countries in improving Irrigation e ciency is a strategic resource to irrigation e ciency by conducting thematic studies satisfy future demand, and is intricately associ- at the national level, strengthening capacities and ated with water security at the national level. institutions, and preparing National Action Plans for Improving water security might provide the best improving irrigation e ciency. incentive to improve irrigation e ciency. The activity supported a study in Tajikistan to The study included consultations with the donor assess the economic and financial costs of inef- community in CA on topics such as water sector ficiency, improve understanding of the causes of reforms and how these can contribute to more e - wasteful water use, and identify opportunities to cient use of irrigation water. The final Tajikistan report improve e ciency. Strong interest in engaging with identifies constraints and opportunities for improving the Bank on similar studies has been expressed by irrigation e ciency and is scheduled to be dissemi- Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan, and it nated in 2015. It is intended that the analytical work will strengthen capacities and assist in the prepara- tion of National Action Plans for improving irrigation e ciency, which can be incorporated into investment operations. In addition to investments (in particular in improving the reliability of electricity supply and reducing the sediment load of the pumped water), follow-up activities may include capacity strengthen- ing of farmers, WUAs, and public irrigation service providers. The findings will be used in the design of future Bank-financed investment programs. 2014 PROGRAM HIGHLIGHTS & ACHIEVEMENTS 21 in Turkmenistan that identified several opportunities e Energy-Water Linkages Pillar for future partnership. Of particular note, the World In 2014, several significant activities were concluded Bank, in partnership with the UNRCCA, convened and a major e ort on climate change accelerated. the First Deputy Prime Ministers meeting of the New activities were focused on leveraging diagnostic five CA countries to discuss water management. studies to build core capacity on energy and water The discussions resulted in a request to host a security in the region, expanding Program activi- subsequent gathering. ties into new and innovative areas, and increas- CAEWDP’s Energy-Water Linkages Pillar seeks ing and improving partnerships with beneficiaries to improve understanding of the interconnections and collaboration with regional institutions. Major between energy and water at the national and concluded activities include the Rogun consulta- regional levels, through exploring the future impact tions and a “Roadmap” for strengthening regional of climate change, facilitating regional dialogue, energy-water modeling and analytics as decision and strengthening the information base. In 2014, support systems. Multiple climate change activi- progress was made with regard to the overall pillar ties were funded, covering knowledge foundations, objectives of: institutions, and investment preparation. There were Expanding data management to enhance also a number of important innovations and some energy/water analysis; strategic “starts,” such as an expansion of the knowl- edge network through student competitions and Supporting regional dialogue on at least two mobile applications for an open source data portal priority water and energy issues facilitated by for water data. New activities pushed completed regional and national organizations; CAEWDP grants up the “value-added ladder,” includ- Strengthening regional organizations capacity ing: implementation of the Roadmap in four sepa- to facilitate regional dialogue; and rate activities, scoping of a new regional investment Recognizing climate change adaptation impli- project under the ASBP-3, and a national workshop cations for both energy and water. 22 CAEWDP PROGRESS REPORT 2014 A synopsis of analytical development, institu- BOX 3: Energy-Water Linkages in the tional strengthening, and investment preparation Context of Climate Change activities in the Energy-Water Linkages Pillar is pro- vided below. Box 3 outlines the energy-water link- Central Asia is one of the regions of the ages in CA in the context of climate change. world most vulnerable to climate change. The World Bank’s 2009 report, Adapting to ANALYTICAL DEVELOPMENT: UPGRADING THE Climate Change in Central Asia, notes that KNOWLEDGE FOUNDATION average temperatures in the region have already increased by 0.5°C and are pro- ECA Deep Dive: Leveraging Turn Down the Heat jected to increase by 1.6° to 2.6°C sometime III ESW for Europe and Central Asia between 2030 and 2050. Regionally, climate (Activity Status: Ongoing; CAEWDP Grant: change is projected to lead to higher tem- US$300,000; TTL: Philippe Ambrosi) peratures, changes in precipitation patterns, The objective of the ECA Deep Dive TA activity is to increased incidents of flooding, and more help initiate and/or strengthen an evidence-based severe and prolonged droughts, with cor- dialogue on climate action among key stakeholders responding variable water availability. The (e.g. policy makers, youth, and media) and lever- region’s vulnerability to climate change is age the latest scientific analysis provided at the exacerbated by ine cient resource use and sub-regional level (Western Balkans, CA and Russia) aging infrastructure, limited enforcement of under the Turn Down the Heat III report. While the regulations, and degraded environment in main focus of Turn Down the Heat III is on deliver- some areas, such as the South Aral Sea. ing a scientific diagnostic by drawing on latest vali- Climate change a ects all sectors vital to dated literature, the ECA Deep Dive TA contributes economic growth and development in the a region-specific background review, disseminates region, including energy, agriculture, and scientific findings from Turn Down the Heat III, and disaster risk management that also cut across supports institutional capacity building in select ECA national borders. Weather-related disasters sub-regions (the Western Balkans, CA, and Russia). are currently estimated to cost 1 percent of This activity is expected to catalyze policy and GDP per year in Tajikistan and the Kyrgyz operational dialogue on climate change by: Republic. Adaptation will sooner rather than Improving understanding of climate vulnerabili- later become a requirement, rather than an ties, supporting institutional capacity develop- option, for the region. ment and helping to mobilize national/regional Policies and interventions to address cli- expertise, strengthening national and regional mate change vulnerabilities have the poten- coalitions, and creating public demand for cli- tial to drive innovation, open up new areas mate actions. of investment and private sector activity, and promote plant-level e ciencies and eco- Facilitating the identification of additional proj- nomic savings. For example, in the agricultural ect and analytical work to be carried out in the sector, a clear plan to align agricultural poli- future and informing the region’s pipeline and cies, develop capabilities of key agricultural country strategy designs (e.g., designing cross- institutions, and make needed investments sectoral climate-smart policies, programs, and in infrastructure and on-farm improvements actions under the umbrella of a CA Regional could help o set risks. In the energy sector, Pilot Program for Climate Resilience (PPCR+) energy e ciency and diversification could and the planning of the second Central Asia provide both immediate economic benefits Climate Change Knowledge Forum held from and help build long-term climate resilience. May 13–15, 2014). Water demand in both sectors will emphasize The ECA Deep Dive is making a substantial the need for e ective national and trans- contribution in CA towards the objective of boundary water management. catalyzing policy and operational dialogue on climate change. Progress towards this objective has 2014 PROGRAM HIGHLIGHTS & ACHIEVEMENTS 23 been achieved across the three dimensions of the activity’s results framework: i. Knowledge Deepened: The activity is helping improve understanding of climate vulnerabili- ties and options to enhance climate resilience, notably through i) a comprehensive background review (e.g., mobilization of sectoral/country experts, both Bank and non-Bank) of CA spe- cific analysis in the Turn Down the Heat report; and ii) preparation of the document, entitled Towards Climate-Smart Solutions for Central Asia, which proposes no-regret measures in achieving climate resilience at the water-energy-agricul- ture nexus. The activity is also helping to mobi- lize and strengthen regional expertise on climate glacierized mountain basins, with an ablation gradi- change, as evidenced by the March 2014 capac- ent model; ii) assess the implications of a potential ity building workshop in Potsdam, Germany that retreat of glaciers for the water resources of the Aral was attended by several delegates from CA and Basin; and iii) analyze GIS hypsometry and satellite who are also part of the TWG. imagery. This data could provide the fundamental organized information bases needed to evaluate ii. Strategy and Policy Informed: The background findings of supply-use and climate change studies of review of the Turn Down the Heat III report, an the Amu and Syr Darya river basins. early draft of the report, and discussions with The Assessment of the Role of Glaciers in Stream experts have provided scientific and technical Flow from the Pamir and Tien Shan Mountains is input to the Climate Change Issues Note for based on available period-of-record stream flow Tajikistan, a knowledge product that will inform data, a digital elevation model (DEM)-derived area- the new Country Partnership Framework (CPF) altitude distribution of the glaciers of each basin, for Tajikistan (2015–2018). Landsat-5 satellite imagery-derived basin and glacier iii. Development Financing Informed: Early find- extents, and an ablation gradient model. Since no ings from the Turn Down the Heat III report, as current mass-balance measurements are available well as a final draft of Towards Climate-Smart for these glaciers, an assumption of steady-state Solutions for Central Asia, were discussed with equilibrium was used in estimating current water representatives from client countries at the and ice budgets. Regional values from studies in the Second Central Asia Climate Knowledge Forum high mountains of Asia are used to estimate values held in May 2014 in Almaty, Kazakhstan and for the ablation gradient, equilibrium line altitude, informed the design of the Climate Adaptation and glacier net balance. The non-glacier compo- and Mitigation Program for Central Asia nents of runo were approximated based on the (CAMP4CA). The findings also support climate- seasonality of precipitation. smart investments and capacity building for cli- The assessment was not without its challenges. mate vulnerable communities in these countries. A major problem faced in attempting an assess- ment of the climate, glaciers, and stream flow of the Assessment of the Role of Glaciers in Stream upper Amu Darya Basin is the lack of a common Flow from the Pamir and Tien Shan Mountains data foundation on which to base the assessments. (Activity Status: Ongoing; CAEWDP Grant: Conclusions from the study around mapping uncer- US$150,000; TTL: Winston Yu) tainty included: The objectives of this activity are to i) undertake a Presently, there is no consensus on the amount baseline assessment of the role of the glaciers in of glacier ice at the headwaters of the Amu the volume and timing of the stream flow of the Darya River, a very fundamental factor in any Amu Darya and Syr Darya rivers, at the scale of the 24 CAEWDP PROGRESS REPORT 2014 instruments regulating the use of the Amu Darya and Syr Darya Rivers. This activity was created to provide a legal analysis of the regulatory framework for transboundary water management, including the rights and obligations of each riparian under the rel- evant instrument (e.g.,the 1995 Nukus Declaration, the 1987 Protocol 566). A draft report currently under review provides useful information regarding the regulatory frameworks for transboundary man- agement in the Amu Darya and Syr Darya Rivers. Central Asia Water Management Study (Activity Status: Ongoing; CAEWDP Grant: US$500,000; TTL: Benoit Paul Blarel) attempt to assess the potential impact of their The objective of this activity is to communicate the retreat on the water resources of the river; key water resource management imperatives in Most existing studies do not su ciently report the Amu Darya and Syr Darya riparian countries of on type of source used (map, aerial, satellite, CA. To do this, the activity assesses the economic, etc.), source acquisition year, model type (vec- environmental, and social costs of inaction under tor or raster), mapping approach, error assess- a business-as-usual scenario, including limited ment, catchment basin area, etc. Hence, any regional cooperation among riparian countries, and comparison of results from existing studies is identifies the key drivers for actions addressing water di cult and must be done with great caution: management. di erent glacier area results will produce di er- Using the Basin Economic Allocation Model ent results in hydrologic models; (BEAM)8, this study analyzes the economic incen- tives for improving water management in the five Glaciers are only one example of the lack of Central Asian countries located in the Aral Sea basin. organized data sets describing baseline condi- It quantifies the physical and economic impacts tions of climate, stream flow, and glacier mass of various policy and investment decisions in the balance characteristics. Without such data sets, energy, agriculture, water supply and sanitation, operational forecast modeling is di cult. and power sectors under cooperative or non- The activity has improved understanding of cooperative water management frameworks. The regional glacier/snow extent and its role in the study also analyzes the economic impacts of climate hydrology of the Amu and Syr Darya river basins. variability and climate change under di erent policy This has helped to inform World Bank supply-use and investment decisions made by the countries in and climate change studies of the basins. The draft the region. Finally, the study looks at the economic report was submitted in October 2014. The findings incentives to engage in cooperative optimization of were presented at a UNRCCA-hosted regional work- water management both in terms of net benefits to shop in Dushanbe, Tajikistan in December 2014. The the whole basin and in term of incidence of costs report will be disseminated in 2015. and benefits among countries. The main report, sectoral notes, and country Legal Analysis of the Transboundary Water notes for this study are being prepared. They will Management Frameworks in Central Asia inform water sector investments and policies in the (Activity Status: Ongoing; CAEWDP Grant: US$100,000; TTL: Victor Bundi Mosoti) 8 BEAM is a multi-country, multi-sector economic model custom- ized for the Aral Sea Basin and the five CA countries that optimizes The objective of this activity is to contribute to a bet- water allocation across di erent uses (irrigated agriculture, power ter understanding of the legal instruments regulating generation, water supply & sanitation, and the environment) in order to maximize economic welfare derived from these water-related the use of the Amu Darya and Syr Darya Rivers. services under various investment and policy choices and exogenous Di erent riparian countries have expressed their shocks. Initially developed by the Executive Committee of IFAS with the support of USAID, it was significantly expanded and upgraded views on the interpretation and application of legal with World Bank and CAEWDP funding. 2014 PROGRAM HIGHLIGHTS & ACHIEVEMENTS 25 CA countries and promote regional cooperation for sustainable water resources management in the region. The upgraded BEAM model will be returned to IFAS as an open source application. A training component, funded by CAEWDP, will accompany this transfer. Central Asia Energy-Water Modeling (Activity Status: Completed; CAEWDP Grant: US$350,000; TTL: Daryl Fields) This objective of this activity was to develop a strengthened energy-water model and analytical framework for CA. The first phase—completed in 2014—identified the needs and scope of work for energy-water modeling and analysis. A second phase ii. A six-country workshop (including all five CA will undertake the identified work. countries plus Afghanistan); The overall objective of Phase 1 was to establish iii. Eight agreed-upon principles for cooperation on a “Roadmap” for strengthening regional energy-water a strengthened knowledge platform for energy- modeling and analytics (decision support systems) water linkages; that all countries accepted. The “Roadmap” was iv. A regional “Roadmap” for improving analysis for based on two sub-tasks: (i) a consultative process to IWRM encompassing 12 activities in data, mod- identify needs and parameters for modeling (and eling and analysis, and governance and capacity; possible associated institutional frameworks), incor- and porating input from each country into a joint view of v. First generation (demonstration) model to a regional energy-water analytical framework; and improve energy/water analysis—by establish- (ii) a demonstration “first generation” model of the ing a Dynamic Information Framework (DIF), a basin’s water resources based on publicly available Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model, and a data (e. g., remote sensing, satellite imagery). sub-basin model to illustrate water-energy and With the exception of the first, all outcome infrastructure. indicators associated with Phase 1 of this activity were achieved: Of the seven “Roadmap” activities assumed by the World Bank (another five were taken up by i. Establish a common vision of modeling needs partners SDC and UNECE), five are underway and and reach agreement on model architecture two are being planned. Significantly, the “Roadmap” (see Box 4); and its activities are also being followed up by the ii. Establish a foundation for trust and incentive at preparation of a regional investment project focused the national levels for further development; on the knowledge/information platform for water iii. Identify institutional principles to support fur- management, encompassing both national and ther model development; regional-scale work programs. This activity helped iv. Begin a process to even capacity across national the work program leverage additional resources experts; and and establish partnerships with SDC, USAID, and v. Enhance awareness of new modeling technol- UNECE for the regional workshop. Box 4 elaborates ogy and approaches. on “Roadmapping” and reflection on the broader Outputs included: process. i. Establishing needs and priorities for model and Central Asia Water and Energy Portal analytical development through reconnaissance consultations, national workshops, a regional (Activity Status: Ongoing; CAEWDP Grant: workshop, liaising with regional organizations, US$300,000; TTL: Nagaraja Rao Harshadeep) and an inventory and comparative analysis of The objective of the Central Asia Water and Energy existing regional models; Portal activity is to improve public domain access to 26 CAEWDP PROGRESS REPORT 2014 basic spatial information related to water resources BOX 4: Roadmapping” and Reflection on the Broader and energy in a regional setting, using modern Process online tools to reach a wide variety of stakeholders. Roadmapping: The “Roadmap” was produced based on It is one of the activities identified in the Roadmap extensive consultations and inputs from national spe- for Strengthening Analysis of IWRM. cialists, as well as the first-ever six-country workshop Key sub-activities within this activity include: on Strengthening Analysis of Integrated Water Resources i. Scoping-Level Activities: The first activity is to Management. The “Roadmap” outlined a new set of prin- develop a more detailed understanding of ciples, constituting a paradigm shift in regional coordina- available spatial and temporal data already in tion, and introduced the use of modern technologies. It the public-domain from global, regional, and opened a dialogue on modeling that specifically highlighted national sources (including from Bank and national perspectives, broadening the focus from existing partner-financed activities) relevant for energy regional institutions. As such, it helped establish a founda- and water, as well as other data sources that can tion for trust and incentivizing cooperation at national potentially be included. This activity will also levels. The “Roadmap” also initiated a process to build the build on the initial scoping of key institutions capacity of national experts, which is recognized as an that could also serve as part of a potential essential element of e ective transboundary dialogue. network to supply, manage, and/or utilize infor- The activity fell short of its sub-objective to establish a mation from the portal and the other knowl- common vision of modeling needs and reach agreement edge products proposed. The activity will also on model architecture for a Basin energy-water model explore case studies of how such public-domain because (i) conditions for a regionally cooperative approach portal information could be of use to di erent were much weaker than anticipated; (ii) there was a direct typologies of users especially related to energy request by counterparts not to develop another model; and and water. (iii) the need for a system of models (including operational ii. Development of a Public-Domain Online Portal: models) emerged, rather than a single basin-wide model. This activity will aim to develop a state-of-the- The “Roadmap” specifically responds to the strengthening of art public domain online mapping portal to enabling conditions and exploring complementary opera- access basic spatial information relating to water tional models. resources and energy in CA. This will include Reflection on the Broader Process: On reflection, this an online GIS service for accessing information grant exposed the depth of need in modeling and analytical relating to a number of themes (e.g. administra- work in the Aral Sea Basin to support evidenced-based dia- tive, climate, water resources, energy systems, logue. Early reconnaissance was important as it enabled the and other environmental, social, economic, and team to build a base for the regional workshop and guide institutional aspects) and visualizing these in discussions on relevant principles and national perspectives innovative ways. The information would include that were not previously fully expressed at the technical existing public domain information services level. Early reconnaissance, followed by national workshops, from a number of global knowledge providers avoided costly investments in new models that were not (e.g., NASA, NOAA, USGS, ESA), as well as addi- priorities for the countries. The findings of the 2012 World tional data in the public domain from the World Bank report “Reaching across the Waters: Facing the Risks of Bank, other development partners, and regional Cooperation in International Waters” by Subramanian et. al., and national organizations. which included a CA case study, lend support to CAEWDP’S iii. Improving Portal Use and Scaling Up: This activ- shift of focus to reducing disparities in capacity and involve- ity will aim to support the sustainable use and ment among national experts and regional institutions. enhancement of the knowledge base and tools The introduction of state-of-the-art technologies for developed as part of this e ort (see Box 5). data and modeling was well received and provided new ave- The activity has made substantial progress nues for strengthening the knowledge platform. Establishing towards improving public-domain online access a base for further work, follow up (Phase 2) is essential to of the relevant spatial data especially through the reap the benefits of this activity and in encouraging more development and promotion of a new Mobile extensive investment per the proposed regional project. app. In addition, this activity is now also geared 2014 PROGRAM HIGHLIGHTS & ACHIEVEMENTS 27 towards inspiring even more public data access relating to water resources as part of the prepara- tion of the proposed Central Asia Water Resources Management (CA-WaRM) project. Consultants were engaged and a number of public-domain datasets and services relevant to this activity were identified. A primer document was drafted to showcase key public-domain datasets and services, and a mobile application called ‘Spatial Agent’9 was developed and launched10 (with co-financing from other funds) to provide access to public-domain datasets. The work was showcased11 in several fora in the region to a wide array of stakeholders (e.g., regional organiza- tions, national ministry o cials, academies of sci- ences, academia, and development partners). The activity is now being rolled into the prepara- Ca-WaRM (see section on “Investment Preparation” tion of a new activity—a flagship regional project on below). The CA-WaRM project has a strong focus on regional and national activities relating to informa- 9 The Spatial Agent App can be downloaded from http://apps. tion sharing, use, and modernization of associated worldbank.org. water resources and hydrometeorology agencies. 10 The app was launched on iOS for Apple iPad and iPhone and is It is also inspiring greater IT elements of another downloadable from the AppStore; an Android version that has been fully developed is now under review by the World Bank ITS and WPO regional project, the CAMP4CA. The products devel- teams and is expected to be in the Google Store shortly. A web ver- oped as part of this activity have been invaluable in sion is also being developed for launch in 2015. facilitating discussions and providing a visualization 11 A demonstration video (showing an early version of this tool in a GIS Conference Plenary (before an audience of 16,000 of how enhanced shared data could be communi- people) can be viewed at the following link (see the last ten cated and used. Client and development partner minutes of the video): http://video.esri.com/watch/3660/ open-access-with-arcgis-open-data. sta feedback on demonstrations of these products BOX 5: The Improving Portal Use and Scaling Up Sub-Activity This sub-activity aims to support the sustainable use and enhancement of the knowledge base and tools developed as part of this e ort, including: Development of knowledge products (including thematic Atlases, 3-D maps, interactive tools, reflections from potential users, improved social media linkages); Development of an innovative Mobile app to allow easy access through an emerging generation of new tablet devices to reach a growing generation of tech-savvy stakeholders; Interaction with users: Capacity building and training activities conducted in coordination with other CAEWDP- related training activities and events will promote exchanges of experiences. The aim would not only be to dis- seminate and improve utilization of the portal and its associated datasets and knowledge products, but also to strengthen the capacity of the community of practice (CoP). Additionally, this could encourage other regional/ national participants and partners to help improve the portal and to also provide some of these services on their own portals on a demand-driven basis. The regional CoP would also be nurtured and networked in this regard (e.g., consultation group composed of key regional/national stakeholders and partners); and Development of a scaling up action plan, building on the roll-out experiences and outlining the next phase of possible activities (e.g., improving incentives for public-domain access to available data, supporting hydrome- teorology services and linkages with existing relevant projects, supporting integration with planning and manage- ment decision support tools, and financing knowledge partnerships) and improving sustainability. 28 CAEWDP PROGRESS REPORT 2014 has generally been positive with regard to their The objective of this activity is to provide incremen- potential. tal financing to the UNRCCA’s dialogue initiative on a framework agreement for sharing transboundary INSTITUTIONAL STRENGTHENING: SHAPING waters. THE RIGHT STRATEGIES The goal of the UNRCCA is to assist and support the CA Governments in building their conflict pre- Central Asia Knowledge Network vention capacities through enhanced dialogue, con- (Activity Status: Ongoing; CAEWDP Grant: fidence building measures, and genuine partnership US$300,000; TTL: Tatyana Leonova) in order to respond to existing threats and emerging The overall development objective of the Central challenges in the CA region. Within its Program of Asia Knowledge Network is to foster cooperation and Action for 2012–2014, the UNRCCA: knowledge exchange among local and regional insti- tutions and practitioners, thus establishing a regional Supports initiatives designed to prevent conflict network of knowledge institutions and CoPs of tech- and strengthen bilateral and regional coopera- nical specialists. It is one of the activities identified in tion, particularly in relation to transnational the Roadmap for Strengthening Analysis of IWRM. threats, water management, and promoting The Knowledge Network (KN) o ers advice to its border security; members through di erent forms of knowledge shar- Helps to develop an early warning system in ing, experience exchange, collaboration, and out- relation to water management in Central Asia, reach. The Network helps equip national knowledge taking into account the interests of all Central institutions with cutting-edge curriculum/knowledge Asian states; and and skills to build the capacity of government o - Works closely with the EC-IFAS to promote cials and other professionals in water, energy, agricul- early warning and cooperation in relation to ture, and climate change-related issues. preventing transboundary water disputes. Activity outcomes in 2014 included: CAEWDP’s financing supported the attendance i. Virtual CoPs and the umbrella knowledge net- of international experts at a five-country dialogue to work in CA established and activated; improve understanding of options for dispute reso- ii. Water-Energy-Climate sector specific learn- lution as part of a legal framework for the manage- ing and capacity building activities within the ment of transboundary waters in the Aral Sea Basin, CAEWDP program facilitated and delivered; and based on norms and principles of international law. iii. Regional student competition of master thesis CAEWDP Riparian Dialogue implemented. (Activity Status: Ongoing; CAEWDP Grant: To date, the umbrella KN platform, the Central US$610,000; TTL: Daryl Fields) Asia Knowledge Alliance for Development, Since 2008, the Central Asia Energy-Water Riparian (CAsKADe) was established, with CoPs created Dialogue has engaged the governments of the and active in the Collaboration for Development Aral Sea Basin (Central Asia and Afghanistan), civil (C4D) platform. Box 6 outlines some of the KN and societies, and diplomatic and development agen- CoP activities undertaken in 2014. The activities of cies in a program to share information and analysis the CoP on transboundary water monitoring and from the assessment studies of the proposed Rogun disaster early warning in Kazakhstan have been sup- Hydropower project. The consultation process ported, with the aim to expand this CoP work to is unique and innovative for CA and has vastly other CA countries. increased the transparency and scrutiny of the stud- United Nations Regional Centre for Preventive ies in a highly charged political environment. It dem- Diplomacy for Central Asia (UNRCCA) onstrates alternative, good-practice approaches to Cooperation energy-water dialogue. Demonstrating international good practice in (Activity Status: Ongoing; CAEWDP Grant: consultation on transboundary projects, stakehold- US$122,000; TTL: Daryl Fields) ers were provided with information on the study 2014 PROGRAM HIGHLIGHTS & ACHIEVEMENTS 29 BOX 6: Knowledge Network and Communities of Practice Activities in 2014 To foster cross-country student / academic / practitioner cooperation and dialogue, the knowledge network and CoPs organized the following in 2014: Student Competition: A regional Master’s thesis competition and student conference to foster the exchange of ideas, approaches, and cross-sector linkages. 40 participants from the CA countries attended the regional conference. Academic CoP: A platform was created for academics to engage in electronic discussions to build cooperation and dialogue around riparian and energy issues in the region. Face-to-face training of the trainers involved 32 participants from CA countries. CoP on Transboundary Risk Monitoring: Multiple face-to-face and e-discussions on regional transboundary risk monitoring activities informed public debate and decision-making. 25 participants from the Central Asian coun- tries attended the face-to-face meeting. findings (on technical, social, and environmental Central Asia Regional Economic Program issues) and were invited to comment on the studies (CAREC) Engagement12 at each key step. Face-to-face consultations were (Activity Status: Phase 1 Completed, Phase 2 also held across all six countries. CAEWDP-funded Ongoing; CAEWDP Grant: US$310,000; TTL: Yuriy International Panels of Experts attended all consulta- Myroshnychenko, Daryl Fields) tions and were responsible for translating comments The CAREC Energy Sector Coordination Committee into formal recommendations to the Government (ESCC)13—co-chaired by the ADB and the World of Tajikistan. These comments were tracked through Bank—is a key regional platform for energy issues in the process. CA. It provides a platform to convene energy experts The results of the dialogue were measured in and decision-makers of CAREC countries and is instru- terms of engagement, transparency, impacts on the mental in implementing CAREC’s energy strategy. studies, and political tensions. Stakeholders repeat- The development objective of the ESCC is to edly expressed appreciation for the process. A large facilitate dialogue among energy specialists in CA community of stakeholders (over 60 civil society along with other neighboring countries, with a goal organizations, all 6 riparian governments, and over of increasing cooperation and energy security in 40 members of the development and diplomatic the region. The ESCC oversees implementation of communities) became better informed of the stud- an energy action plan and specific analytical and ies and more knowledgeable about the potential capacity-building initiatives through its committee benefits, impacts, and risks of the proposed project. and sub-committee meetings. The ESCC provides a All country governments attended the final set of unique forum for countries to discuss and explore consultation meetings. Specific topics raised by options to strengthen trade in the region. stakeholders were incorporated into the study, in Presentations delivered during two ESCC meet- particular related to dam safety and downstream ings held in April 2014 in Bishkek, Kyrgyz Republic, flow impacts, and several project design aspects and September 2014 in Beijing, China spurred a were changed as a result. substantial exchange of information and ideas. The fifth and final round on consultations held The country delegations expressed great interest in June/July 2014 focused on the draft final Techno- Economic Assessment Study (TEAS) and the draft 12 This activity description represents two successive grants: the first from 2010 to 2013 and the second from 2013 to 2016, worth final Environmental and Social Impact Assessment US$60,000 and US$250,000, respectively. (ESIA). The outputs of the fifth assessment (as well 13 The ESCC is one of four working committees of the CAREC pro- as all previous consultations) are available at www. gram, an ADB-hosted partnership of ten countries (Afghanistan, Azerbaijan, China, Mongolia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyz Republic, Pakistan, worldbank.org/eca/rogun. The meetings concluded Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan) supported by six multilater- with a request to continue the dialogue at a higher al institutions (ADB, Islamic Development Bank, JICA, USAID, UNDP and World Bank) working together to promote accelerated growth level of engagement. and poverty reduction through cooperation. 30 CAEWDP PROGRESS REPORT 2014 Participants of the May 2012 CAREC ESCC meeting, including CAEWDP Program Manager Daryl Fields (front row, third from left) and Energy Development Pillar Lead Sunil Kumar Khosla (second row, third from right). Photo credit: CAREC. in learning about international experiences. For strengthening analysis of energy-water linkages instance, a session on knowledge sharing on regional prepared under the EAP. power exchanges in the Balkans elicited an extensive iv. Capacity Building and Knowledge Management: exchange of information and ideas. The CA countries The EAP will deliver a revised program of capac- endorsed proposed next steps, subsequent bilateral ity building, developed by ESCC members.14 technical discussions, and a regional workshop. The ESCC and the CAEWDP remain well coor- With the conclusion of CAEWDP’s work on the dinated, and supporting the continued existence of 2010–2012 ESCC Energy Action Plan (EAP), a follow- the ESCC is a cornerstone activity for CAEWDP. on activity, CAREC’s Energy Sector Coordination and Cooperation activity, was developed to engage and Central Asia Climate Knowledge Forum provide continued support to ESCC. (Activity Status: Completed; CAEWDP Grant: An Energy Work Program for 2013-2015 was pre- US$435,000; TTL: Philippe Ambrosi) pared, building on the 2010-2012 ESCC EAP achieve- The development objective of the knowledge forum ments and addressing its constraints. Several new activity was to foster knowledge sharing, maintain CAEWDP activities are included in the work program. and improve dialogue with client countries, and to The new program includes four CAEWDP activities: encourage greater collaboration, clarity, and cohe- i. Developing the Central Asia—South Asia Energy sion on future climate-related activities in the region Corridor: This component extends the focus from and on emerging strategic priorities among bilateral/ the five CA countries to South Asia, including multilateral donors and client countries. cross-border projects and programs for the sale Building on the successful experience from the of energy from CA to South Asia, all transiting first Central Asia Climate Knowledge Forum, the Afghanistan. ii. Resolving Regional Energy Dispatch Issues: As 14 Components of the new Energy Work Program not funded by CAEWDP include: (i) mobilizing funds for building energy assets, a follow up to the recommendations of the encompassing an assessment of the capacity of each country to economic study of electricity trade undertaken finance projects from its own resources and, if necessary, the iden- tification of other potential sources of financing, including private under the EAP, more detailed country-specific investment and regional project development facilities; and (ii) studies and consultations will be undertaken. implementing Medium-Term Priority Projects (MTPP), which will finalize an ESCC list of priority projects to be implemented over the iii. Managing Energy-Water Linkages: This com- medium-term (2012-2014), taking into account the project prioritiza- ponent will implement the roadmap for tion plan outlined in the RPMP. 2014 PROGRAM HIGHLIGHTS & ACHIEVEMENTS 31 proposed activities in FY14 and FY15 aimed at con- collegially across borders and sectors to provide tinuing e orts towards the creation of a platform to advice and champion climate-smart solutions at promote knowledge exchange and information shar- both national and regional levels. The group met ing on a number of issues around climate-resilient for the first time in March 2014 and has since estab- development and green growth. Additionally, vari- lished itself as an e ective counterpart to advance ous tools and knowledge products were developed thinking on collaborative solutions for climate to address and incorporate climate change consider- action in the region. In short, the TWG has dem- ations into policy design and planning. The prepara- onstrated vision, expertise, and passion in helping tion of the Forum was cited as a good example of shape the concept for collectively addressing climate team work and collaboration across sectors, net- change in CA. In collaboration with development works, and World Bank Group institutions. CAEWDP partners, CAEWDP established the building blocks aims to make the Central Asia Climate Knowledge for a regional program for climate resilience with Forum a flagship regional event, supporting all the CAMP4CA. CAEWDP pillar activities. Capacity Strengthening for IWRM Modeling This activity made progress towards the objec- tive of fostering knowledge sharing, maintaining (Activity Status: Ongoing; CAEWDP Grant: and improving dialogue with client countries, and US$365,000; TTL: Daryl Fields) encouraging greater collaboration, clarity, and cohe- The development objective of the Capacity sion on future climate-related activities among Strengthening for Integrated Water Resources development partners. Development partners sup- Management (IWRM) Modeling TA activity is to ported a regional approach to climate resilience strengthen knowledge and modeling skills leading in CA. During a session entitled “Development to a more e ective base on which to identify mod- Partner Roundtable on Financing Options,” it was eling architecture options and priorities for IWRM acknowledged that development partners are mak- modeling in CA. With the outcomes of strengthened ing substantial contributions to climate change capacity and increased knowledge, awareness, and adaptation and mitigation e orts through regional confidence, the TA contributes to creating a more and national programs. The Forum also drew nearly level playing field and a more transparent dialogue 200 participants from CA national governments, across the six countries, and to mitigating recognized regional organizations, CSOs, national and regional risks to transboundary water cooperation - namely universities and research centers, the World Bank, capacity and knowledge. These risks manifest in two and other development partners active in the major ways: either countries perceive they have less region—twice as many participants as in the inau- negotiating capacity than their co-riparians have; gural Forum. The Forum’s session on “Civil Society or countries perceive they do not have adequate Participation for Climate Resilience” showcased sev- or accurate information about the basin. Thus, eral success stories, demonstrating that champions knowledge and skill expansion, training, and studies within civil society are already at work in the region. help to meet gaps in capacity and knowledge, and CSOs announced the establishment of the Central provide support for developing new skills. This activ- Asia CSO Climate Association, a coalition of envi- ity was identified in the Roadmap for Strengthening ronment and climate CSOs from all five countries, Analysis for IWRM. and expressed readiness and strong interest to be Partnering with the Global Water Partnership included in the national TWG teams for developing (GWP)15, the CA-WaRM activity was initiated in the Climate Adaptation and Mitigation Program for May 2014 through consultations in each of the five Central Asia (CAMP4CA). countries to clarify objectives. The concept was This activity helped mobilize and strengthen well received as a necessary step to begin capac- regional expertise for multi-sector, cross-country ity strengthening and understanding the value of collaboration on climate change. The World Bank 15 The GWP’s vision is for a water secure world. Its mission is to facilitated regional expertise by forming the Central support the sustainable development and management of water Asia Technical Working Group (TWG) on Climate resources at all levels. GWP was founded in 1996 by the World Bank, the United Nations Development Programme, and the Swedish Change. The TWG is helping to convene a durable International Development Cooperation Agency to foster integrated network of experts across CA, who can work water resource management. 32 CAEWDP PROGRESS REPORT 2014 INVESTMENT PREPARATION: EXPLORING INVESTMENT POSSIBILITIES Climate Adaptation & Mitigation Program for Central Asia (CAMP4CA) (Activity Status: Ongoing; CAEWDP Grant: US$150,000; TTL: Angela Armstrong) The objective of this activity is to increase meaning- ful collaboration among CA stakeholders (govern- ment representatives and technical experts from line ministries/agencies from the CA countries, regional institutions, knowledge and learning institu- tions, CSOs, and development partners) to improve national and regional resilience to climate change. The activity is supporting the preparation, appraisal, modeling and other analytical tools. Three major and early implementation of the proposed Climate tasks were completed over the period: Adaptation and Mitigation Program for Central Asia i. The five-day Russian-language BasinIT course (CAMP4CA), building on CAEWDP’s Central Asia was piloted with participants from academia Climate Knowledge Forum activity. and middle-management technical specialists CAMP4CA will enhance regional coordination from all six countries (including Afghanistan); and access to improved climate change knowledge services for key stakeholders and support vulnerable ii. National engagement on strengthening IWRM communities in implementing climate investments. was achieved in Turkmenistan, with water To date, the activity has supported preparation specialists at a cross-sectoral and inter-agency and delivery of a face-to-face meeting of the workshop on IWRM; CAMP4CA TWG in Almaty, Kazakhstan, held from iii. With the Scientific Information Centre of the November 13-14, 2014 (the first output). Continued Interstate Committee on Water Coordination, engagement among other stakeholders, including the basin organizations and national representa- Development Partners and CSOs active in the field tives convened senior modeling experts from of climate change in CA, has also been carried out. across the region to (i) review the most cur- The objective of the TWG meeting was to review rent river basin models (specifically the BEAM, CAMP4CA’s scope and activities, monitoring indica- ASBmm and AralDIF models); and (ii) advise tors, and institutional arrangements (including World on the design and structure of a longer term Bank fiduciary and safeguard requirements). Overall, training program. The meeting produced a there was broad consensus among all countries on draft curriculum to be pilot tested in 2015. This CAMP4CA design and implementation arrange- “Model Experts Group” planning meeting was ments. Next steps include: one of the first opportunities for a select group i. Consultation between the TWG and mem- of specialists from all six Aral Sea Basin countries bers of the CA Interstate Commission on to discuss, across national lines, the appropriate Sustainable Development (ICSD) on options direction and scope for modeling and training. for ICSD’s participation in CAMP4CA’s regional implementation; ii. A face-to-face meeting of the TWG (second out- put under the activity) in January 2015; and iii. A workshop with development partners in early February 2015 to discuss options for collabora- tion around CAMP4CA, as well as review of ongoing development partner activities, such as the CAEWDP Riparian Dialogue. 2014 PROGRAM HIGHLIGHTS & ACHIEVEMENTS 33 The project is currently scheduled for World Bank Board decision in June 2015. Central Asia Water Resources Management Project (Activity Status: Planned; CAEWDP Grant: TBD; TTL: Nagaraja Rao Harshadeep) A Memorandum of Understanding between the EC-IFAS and the World Bank prescribes a new regional investment project as part of the implemen- tation of the ASBP-3. Specifically, the World Bank, supported by CAEWDP, will facilitate the techni- cal analysis, dialogue, and investments needed to strengthen the information and knowledge base for water resources monitoring, planning, and coor- dination. The project, which was initiated on Bank budget resources, will leverage several completed CAEWDP activities, including support for the original preparation of ASBP-3, the “Roadmap” for strength- ening the analysis of IWRM, and a data portal and model capacity building. TRUST FUND MANAGEMENT Participants of a World Bank Europe and Central Asia (ECA) and Middle East and North Africa (MNA) trust fund administration workshop— including Abena Aku o-Akoto from CAEWDP (first row, second from right)—in Montpelier, France, March 2014. TRUST FUND MANAGEMENT 35 Program Administration Donor Engagement R isks to the Program are regularly The Program hosted two Donor Advisory Committee monitored, as is the ongoing validity of (DAC) meetings in 2014. The May 2014 DAC meeting the objectives, results framework, and focused on the financial and narrative update of the program structure (i.e., the three pillars Program, with particular reference to the strategic and their components). As of the end of 2014, the direction of the Program in the next two years. The Program objective remains valid, and its structure World Bank’s Country Director for Central Asia led has proved well suited to capturing the range of a discussion on the strategic direction and vision of relevant activities, while providing flexibility to the Program, providing an overview of (i) country integrate new sectors such as water supply and bal- priorities; (ii) strategic priorities; and (iii) high value- ancing national and regional agendas (e.g., specific added opportunities for CAEWDP. Key messages focus on Tajikistan sustainable energy). from this meeting were as follows: Human resources added in late 2013 have CAEWDP symbolizes the sharpening intellec- improved coordination e orts, accelerated activ- tual basis for the World Bank Energy and Water ity initiation, and further strengthened cooperation Program in Central Asia; between CAEWDP and the World Bank’s internal work plan. The present team is led by a Program CAEWDP plays a role in increasing investments Manager and includes one Partnership Specialist, in the region’s water resources management; and three Pillar Leaders, and one Program Assistant with CAEWDP should continue to strengthen its cross support from the World Bank communications focus on regional institutions. unit. In 2014, the team continued to provide support The message was well received by the CAEWDP to CA activities in project formulation, implementa- stakeholders in attendance, who also provided a tion, monitoring and evaluation (M&E), as well as response to the World Bank’s vision and a summary facilitating the undertaking of various other capacity- of their experiences and activities in the region. building activities. The November 2014 DAC meeting focused on the implementation of activities, new activities, and understanding development partners’ work in TABLE 1: MDTF Total Pledges 2014 Donor Currency USD Date Currency Amount Pledged Amount Received Amount Received United Kingdom (DFID) 9/22/2011 GBP 940,000 940,000 1,450,420 4/2/2013 GBP 2,330,000 330,000 498,597 12/2/2013 GBP 500,000 821,450 12/19/2013 GBP 500,000 816,850 12/18/2014 GBP 500,000 781,100 GBP 3,270,000 2,770,000 4,368,417 Switzerland (SECO) 2/28/2014 USD 3,710,000 3,710,000 3,710,000 USD 3,710,000 3,710,000 3,710,000 European Union (DG DEVCO) 9/5/2013 EUR 1,000,000 500,000 659,650 EUR 1,000,000 500,000 659,650 United States (USAID) 11/13/2014 USD 1,000,000 — — USD 1,000,000 — — 36 CAEWDP PROGRESS REPORT 2014 the region. Much of the discussion was around the of total allocations (Table 3). Disbursements have exchange of ideas and program learning from the increased year-on-year. field to improve implementation. A Program evalu- Among program pillars, Energy-Water Linkages ation was discussed and the terms of reference was accounts for about 58 percent of program grants shared with the DAC. The evaluation will be review- while Energy Development accounts for 23 per- ing the initial single donor funding by SECO and par- cent. The remaining grants fund Water Productivity ticular attention will be paid to the results framework (12 percent) and strategic program management. of the MDTF to strengthen and augment it. Overall expenditures (disbursements plus commit- ment) were 79 percent of approved grants. DONOR COMMITMENTS AND CONTRIBUTIONS Total funds pledged through a signed legal agree- ment by Program donors in the MDTF represent Outreach and Communications close to 28 percent of the total funding target of US$40 million over ten years. As of 31 December At this point in the program, strong and e ective 2014, the MDTF pledges totaled US$11.3 million communication to stakeholders on progress towards (Table 1). Notably, in 2014, USAID made their first the complex goals and objectives of CAEWDP will pledge of US$1 million, joining previous pledges by solidify confidence and engagement of govern- DFID, SECO, and the European Union (DG DEVCO). ments, stakeholders, and partners in the Program. In line with the Program’s focus on clear outcomes and results, the management team has focused on capturing and communicating results at regional and Financial Management national levels. CAEWDP is in the process of updat- PORTFOLIO SUMMARY FOR THE MULTI DONOR ing an external and internal webpage to allow pro- TRUST FUND gram activities to be shared and disseminated with The MDTF grant allocation and disbursement details— a wider audience. A communications strategy is also as of December 31, 2014—are presented below. being developed to support program delivery and to boost impact-focused outreach activities. Allocations In 2014, CAEWDP produced communication By the end of 2014, CAEWDP MDTF-approved materials that were disseminated to partners, stake- grants totaled just over US$6.9 million for 31 activi- holders, and the wider development community and ties, up from US$4.1 million and 22 activities in the were profiled at international and regional events. preceding year (Table 2). With the completion of a formal CAEWDP brochure Disbursements and logo, the Program significantly increased its The financial picture was very encouraging in 2014 presence in international events: the program logo as the aim at the start of the year to ramp up dis- featured at Stockholm Water Week (Stockholm); bursement was achieved (see Figure 4). Based on the the Second Climate Knowledge Forum (Almaty); allocations detailed above, the approved activities the 11th Annual Meeting of the International Water undertook disbursements as agreed in the respective Resource Economics Consortium (Washington, D.C.); legal agreements and payment calendars, for a total and the Rogun consultations (CA). of US$4.21 million in 2014, representing 61 percent TRUST FUND MANAGEMENT 37 TABLE 2: MDTF—Approved Grants 2014 Activities Grants Power Supply Options Study (TAJ) 151,880 Tajikistan Energy Sector Dialogue 170,000 Kyrgyz Republic: E ciency improvements of the DH System* 80,000 Heating and Energy E ciency Assessment for the Building Sector of the Kyrgyz Republic and Tajikistan 170,000 Energy Vulnerability to Climate Change 50,000 Kazakhstan: Electricity Market Options * 200,000 Enhancing Regional Power Trade in CA 180,000 Tajikistan - Advisory Support for the Regional Trade Initiatives Project 300,000 Kyrgyz Republic - Advisory Support for the Regional Trade Initiatives Project 300,000 Central Asia Energy-Water Modeling 350,000 Central Asia Water Management 500,000 Central Asia Knowledge Network 300,000 Central Asia Water and Energy Portal 300,000 Capacity Strengthening for IWRM Modeling 365,000 CAEWDP Riparian Dialogue 610,000 Central Asia: CAREC Energy Sector Coordination 250,000 Central Asia Energy Sector Coordinating Committee 60,000 UNRCCA Cooperation 122,000 Legal Analysis of the Transboundary Water Management Frameworks in Central Asia 100,000 Exploration of Technical and institutional Options for Water Resources Development in the Vaksh Cascade 30,000 ECA Deep Dive: Leveraging Turn Down the Heat III ESW for Europe And Central Asia 300,000 Assessment of the Role of Glaciers in Stream Flow from the Pamir and Tien Shan Mountains 150,000 Central Asia Climate Change Knowledge Forum 435,000 Climate Adaptation & Mitigation Program for Central Asia 150,000 Promoting Irrigation E ciency in Central Asia 250,000 Strengthening Irrigation Governance 170,000 Social Impact Analysis of Water Supply and Sanitation Services in Central Asia 170,000 Analysis of Water Supply and Sewerage Services in Central Asia 270,000 Program Management and Administration 454,480 Total 6,938,360 *These grants were created late in 2014 as a result will be reported in the 2015 Progress Report. 38 CAEWDP PROGRESS REPORT 2014 TABLE 3: MDTF Disbursements 2014 Available Activities Disbursement Commitments Balance Power Supply Options Study (TAJ) 151,880 - - Tajikistan Energy Sector Dialogue 146,016 - 23,984 Kyrgyz Republic: E ciency improvements of the DH System* - 31,500 48,500 Heating and Energy E ciency Assessment for the Building Sector of the Kyrgyz 149,024 13,000 7,976 Republic and Tajikistan Energy Vulnerability to Climate Change 6,225 6,440 37,335 Kazakhstan: Electricity Market Options * - - 200,000 Enhancing Regional Power Trade in CA 59,211 - 30,789 Tajikistan - Advisory Support for the Regional Trade Initiatives Project - - 300,000 Kyrgyz Republic - Advisory Support for the Regional Trade Initiatives Project - - 300,000 Central Asia Energy-Water Modeling 346,270 - 3,730 Central Asia Water Management 451,492 6,627 41,881 Central Asia Knowledge Network 117,557 16,428 166,015 Central Asia Water and Energy Portal 163,248 77,607 59,145 Capacity Strengthening for IWRM Modeling 129,361 105,534 130,105 CAEWDP Riparian Dialogue 578,684 24,011 7,305 Central Asia: CAREC Energy Sector Coordination 119,936 - 5,064 Central Asia Energy Sector Coordinating Committee 57,314 700 1,986 UNRCCA Cooperation 109,392 - 12,608 Legal Analysis of the Transboundary Water Management Frameworks in Central Asia 21,295 8,748 69,957 Exploration of Technical and institutional Options for Water Resources Development 17,247 1,124 11,629 in the Vaksh Cascade ECA Deep Dive: Leveraging Turn Down the Heat III ESW for Europe And Central Asia 160,954 21,335 17,711 Assessment of the Role of Glaciers in Stream Flow from the Pamir and 72,376 - 77,624 Tien Shan Mountains Central Asia Climate Change Knowledge Forum 434,786 - 214 Climate Adaptation & Mitigation Program for Central Asia 107,458 17,421 25,121 Promoting Irrigation E ciency in Central Asia 198,870 - 51,130 Strengthening Irrigation Governance 158,854 11,084 62 Social Impact Analysis of Water Supply and Sanitation Services in Central Asia 168,730 - 1,270 Analysis of Water Supply and Sewerage Services in Central Asia - 205,880 64,120 Program Management and Administration 288,343 27,235 54,902 Total 4,214,523 233,115 1,750,163 *These grants were created late in 2014 and thus will be covered in the 2015 Progress Report. LOOKING FORWARD T he Central Asia Energy-Water Development Program has evolved substantially over the last year, with identifiable results. In 2014, the number of CAEWDP activities increased from to 32 (from 22 in 2013), and the reach of sectors and issues broadened. Importantly, new activities are building on previous CAEWDP initiatives and findings, thus moving the activities up the “value-added ladder.” For example, early diag- nostics on energy shortages in Tajikistan supported a more robust engagement in policy dialogue (includ- ing leading the Donor Coordination Committee for energy) and technical assistance for policy reform, followed by identification of an investment proj- ect to specifically address winter energy access. Considerable analysis in the area of climate impacts supported the mobilization of a five-country forum and technical working group that are now preparing a region-wide investment project to increase climate resilience. In 2015, Program management will strengthen this trend, completing some 13 analytical and technical assistance activities. The investment proj- ects—both implementation and preparation -- will demand a strong focus, given their complexity and need to simultaneously address national and regional priorities. The evolution of the Program o ers additional opportunities to leverage the World Bank’s active portfolio in each country and in the region, currently 40 CAEWDP PROGRESS REPORT 2014 estimated at US$5.99 billion. It also opens new the next 18 months. Supported by new communica- opportunities to link the capacity and technical tions products, the review will help extend the dia- assistance initiatives of development partners such logue with Central Asian governments, development as GIZ and USAID with investment lending instru- partners, and stakeholders on the next steps for the ments for additional benefit to the countries. Program in its goal to strengthen energy and water An interim review of the Program, to be initi- security for the people of Central Asia. ated in 2015, will provide important insights on early program results and possible course corrections over The Central Asia Energy-Water Development Program (CAEWDP) is a knowledge and technical assistance multi-donor trust fund (MDTF) administered by the World Bank. CAEWDP’s mission is to build energy and water security for the countries of Central Asia—Kazakhstan, Kyrgyz Republic, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan—through enhanced regional cooperation. Since its inception in 2010, CAEWDP has received support from bilateral and multilateral donors including the Government of Switzerland’s State Secretariat for Economic A airs (SECO), the European Commission (EC), the United Kingdom’s Department for International Development (DFID), the United States Agency for International Development (USAID), and the World Bank Group. 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