Solar Resource Mapping in Pakistan SITE EVALUATION REPORT July 2015 This report was prepared by the consultants listed on the following pages, under contract to The World Bank. It is one of several outputs from the solar Resource Mapping and Geospatial Planning Pakistan [Project ID: P146140]. This activity is funded and supported by the Energy Sector Management Assistance Program (ESMAP), a multi-donor trust fund administered by The World Bank, under a global initiative on Renewable Energy Resource Mapping. Further details on the initiative can be obtained from the ESMAP website. This document is an interim output from the above-mentioned project. Users are strongly advised to exercise caution when utilizing the information and data contained, as this has not been subject to full peer review. The final, validated, peer reviewed output from this project will be the Pakistan Solar Atlas, which will be published once the project is completed. Copyright © 2015 International Bank for Reconstruction and Development / THE WORLD BANK Washington DC 20433 Telephone: +1-202-473-1000 Internet: www.worldbank.org This work is a product of the consultants listed, and not of World Bank staff. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this work do not necessarily reflect the views of The World Bank, its Board of Executive Directors, or the governments they represent. The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this work and accept no responsibility for any consequence of their use. The boundaries, colors, denominations, and other information shown on any map in this work do not imply any judgment on the part of The World Bank concerning the legal status of any territory or the endorsement or acceptance of such boundaries. The material in this work is subject to copyright. Because The World Bank encourages dissemination of its knowledge, this work may be reproduced, in whole or in part, for non-commercial purposes as long as full attribution to this work is given. Any queries on rights and licenses, including subsidiary rights, should be addressed to World Bank Publications, The World Bank Group, 1818 H Street NW, Washington, DC 20433, USA; fax: +1-202-522-2625; e-mail: pubrights@worldbank.org. Furthermore, the ESMAP Program Manager would appreciate receiving a copy of the publication that uses this publication for its source sent in care of the address above, or to esmap@worldbank.org. ESMAP – Renewable Energy Resource Mapping Initiative - Solar Resource Mapping for Pakistan – Site evaluation report: UET University City, Lahore Responsible Authors Birk Kraas (CSP Services) Christoph Schillings (DLR) Qazi Sabir (PITCO) DOC: SiteEvalReport_LahoreUET_2014-06 Author Contact Information: CSP Services GmbH Friedrich-Ebert-Ufer 30 51143 Köln/Cologne, Germany e-mail: b.kraas@cspservices.de 02 July 2014 CSP Services GmbH Birk Kraas Friedrich-Ebert-Ufer 30 51143 Cologne, Germany Phone: +49 2203 959003 6 Mob.: +49 162 9373484 b.kraas@cspservices.de DLR Dr. Christoph Schillings Pfaffenwaldring 38-40 70563 Stuttgart, Germany Phone: +49 711 6862 784 christoph.schillings@dlr.de PITCO: Qazi Sabir Phone: +92 (42) 36363751 qazi.sabir@pitcopk.com – ESMAP Pakistan – confidential - 2 SiteEvalReport_LahoreUET_2014-06 Contents 1 Executive Summary.............................................................................. 4 2 Procedure and tasks of the site visit .................................................... 5 3 Site visit results ................................................................................... 6 3.1 Overview, description of the site and surroundings ................................. 6 3.2 Local support, maintenance staff and future hardware use ....................... 7 3.3 Site 1 evaluation (solar test site east of water tower) .............................. 8 Coordinates ................................................................................. 8 Checklist for evaluation of the situation of and at the site ................... 8 Shadings and Reflections ............................................................. 10 3.4 Site 2 evaluation (solar test site east of water tower) ............................ 14 3.5 Site 3 evaluation (CERD building rooftop) ............................................ 14 Coordinates ............................................................................... 14 Checklist for evaluation of the situation of and at the site ................. 15 Shadings and Reflections ............................................................. 16 4 Conclusion ......................................................................................... 20 – ESMAP Pakistan – confidential - 3 SiteEvalReport_LahoreUET_2014-06 1 Executive Summary A team of AEDB (Alternative Energy Development Board of Pakistan), WBG (World Bank Group) and the solar vendor consortium for the ESMAP Pakistan Solar Resource Mapping Project visited the University of Engineering and Technology (UET) campus in University City in Lahore on June 04, 2014. The goal was to evaluate if the location is suitable for the installation of a solar ground measurement station in the framework of the project. Three different sites have been visited on the campus, of which site 3 has been found suitable. Site 3 is recommended for the installation of a Tier 1 or 2 meteorological station (CSP Services MHP/MDI automatic weather station). Shading of sensors is negligible, physical conditions for installation are comfortable and maintenance personnel is available among the scientific staff of the university. Furthermore, the local stakeholder expressed his interest and willingness to facilitate a meteorological station at his premises. – ESMAP Pakistan – confidential - 4 SiteEvalReport_LahoreUET_2014-06 2 Procedure and tasks of the site visit The following tasks have been performed for the site visit, following the procedure from the site visit manual: 1. Recording of exact geographic coordinates of the site(s) and orientations 2. Photographic documentation of the site - Overview of site and location, - panoramic 360 degrees round view from the site for identification of potential obstacles blocking the sun path 3. Check of availability, strength and potential providers of GSM network at the site 4. Audit of local staff to clarify all relevant information (see checklist) 5. Information of local staff at the site about the project, its aim and required tasks for realization and clarification of availability and prospected quality of the required support from their side 6. In-office evaluation of results and compilation of this report – ESMAP Pakistan – confidential - 5 SiteEvalReport_LahoreUET_2014-06 3 Site visit results The results of the site visit and its evaluation is presented in the following section. 3.1 Overview, description of the site and surroundings Figure 1: Location overview (Google Maps View) Figure 2: Aerial View (Google Earth View) Lahore, the capital of Punjab province, is located on the Ravi river in the north of Punjab province. The climate is dry, with hot summers and a main precipitation period (monsoon) in July and August. The terrain is flat. – ESMAP Pakistan – confidential - 6 SiteEvalReport_LahoreUET_2014-06 University City, the campus of UET Lahore, is located in the northwest of the city of Lahore. The surrounding area is flat agricultural land, mainly wheat and vegetable fields. To the west, a canal (Degh Canal) and a water drainage reservoir is located in about 400 m distance. The water reservoir was mainly empty at the time of the visit and seems to be present seasonally. To the east of the campus, the National Highway 5 is passing the campus in North-South direction in a distance of about 2 km, to the southern boundary the campus is limited by the Lahore Bypass, another major road. East of the campus, the newly built facility of SUPARCO is located. 3.2 Local support, maintenance staff and future hardware use The availability of qualified staff for the regular local maintenance (cleaning of sensors and other parts, visual inspection, surveillance of equipment) and the institutional support of the involved stakeholder are directly relevant for the success of the ESMAP project measurement campaign. Future use of the equipment after the ESMAP project termination is another issue to be considered in order to provide maximum sustainability of the project. Local support and maintenance staff Local staff is available from the Centre of Energy Research and Development (CERD), a department of UET. Representatives confirmed to be willing to perform maintenance tasks throughout the 24 months of the measurement campaign. A short briefing about the required tasks and their frequency of occurrence has been given to the UET representatives. Qualification of local staff should be sufficient for station maintenance since engineers and scientists will be present at the site. UET also stated to provide the site preparation (civil works) free of cost. Future hardware use (sustainability) At UET’s Centre of Energy Research and Development, prototype development and testing for concentrating solar collectors is planned. The station will therefore be beneficial for the research purposes of the university and representatives expressed their firm interest in using measurement data from a ground station. Therefore, future hardware use can be taken as granted. – ESMAP Pakistan – confidential - 7 SiteEvalReport_LahoreUET_2014-06 3.3 Site 1 evaluation (solar test site east of water tower) Coordinates N 31.6966° E 74.2472°, altitude 210 m above mean sea level The site is located on the ground at the solar test site of the campus, where a number of PV installations is already installed. To the west, there is the water tower of the university, to the north, an electric power line is passing by. Figure 3: View from Site to the North Figure 4: View from Site to the South Checklist for evaluation of the situation of and at the site The following checklist has been filled at the site visit and is completed by interviewing stakeholders (UET scientific staff) on site. Table 1: Site checklist for site 1 Criteria/Measure Yes / No Notes Dimensionsi Minimum area 10 × 10 m² yes Firm natural groundii yes Grass, Temporary Surface Ground typeiii gravel construction Horizontally levellediv yes – ESMAP Pakistan – confidential - 8 SiteEvalReport_LahoreUET_2014-06 Excavation for foundations yes possiblev Fencing of the site possiblevi Not necessary No drifting sand/snowvii no No flooding possibleviii no Obstructions See Panoramic View Figure 5 If yes, note direction, distance and approx. heightix Possibly from Reflections or light sourcesx solar panels yes Industrial area Industrial areas or power ~3 km; mostly plantsxi chemical industry yes High dust load Sources of smoke or vaporxii area Quarry or minexiii no yes Asphalted main Main road, dirt road, trackxiv roads Surroundings no Large distance, Airportsxv ~40 km Settlements, towns, cityxvi yes ~2 km from site yes Vegetables, Agricultural areaxvii wheat yes Canal, water Swamp, lake, river, oceanxviii reservoir Sand dunesxix no Animal populationsxx no Occurrence of snowfallxxi no Temperatures below freezing no pointxxii Otherxxiii - Accessibility Accessible by carxxiv yes GSM coverage 2G network availablexxv yes All 5 providers – ESMAP Pakistan – confidential - 9 SiteEvalReport_LahoreUET_2014-06 yes University has Grid power Electricity availablexxvi backup generator yes University Land use rights Permit availablexxvii consent is given yes University Operation permit Permit availablexxviii consent is given No underground or overhead no electrical lines, pipelines or similar xxix Security Possibly Campus is Measures against theft or guarded, but vandalism required?xxx fence recommended Regarding the aspects covered by the checklist, the site is suitable for the installation of a ground measurement station. The ground is firm natural ground, temporary construction in the near surrounding will be finished within the next months. The close surroundings lack any large dust or aerosol-emitting industrial facility thus no negative impacts on irradiation and measurement conditions is suspected. All roads in the surroundings are asphalted and therefore not heavily dust-emitting; The only larger water body of the drainage reservoir is only present seasonally and not very large. Permission to use the site is given directly by the resident stakeholder. Shadings and Reflections Panoramic View The picture in Figure 5 shows a panoramic view with a centered south view, North is on the left and right edge of the picture. Blue markers show the North, South, East and West direction as well as horizon height. The sun paths throughout the year are displayed in the picture, revealing if any objects on the horizon are imposing an obstruction to the direct solar irradiance. Figure 5: Panoramic View with North, South, horizon line and monthly sun paths with the corresponding position at full hours marked – ESMAP Pakistan – confidential - 10 SiteEvalReport_LahoreUET_2014-06 From the panoramic view, it is visible that the water tower, the pump house and the electric power line in the west are heavily obstructing the sun near sunset. To the east, a few trees are located within the trajectories of the sun. The impact of these obstacles will be further analyzed in the following sections. Shading Table for Sun Elevations >0° Figure 6: Shading Table for Sun Elevations >0° Figure 6 shows the shading table throughout the year. Clearly, the obstructions in the west are imposing shadows on the supposed sensor location before sunset, for periods of up to about 1.5 h. In the morning after sunrise, trees in the east are also sometimes blocking the sun for shorter periods of about 10-15 minutes.. – ESMAP Pakistan – confidential - 11 SiteEvalReport_LahoreUET_2014-06 Shading Table for Sun Elevations >5° Figure 7: Shading Table for Sun Elevations >5° Figure 7 shows the shading table after excluding Sun Elevations smaller than 5° above horizon. At these low angles, measurement uncertainty of satellite and ground measurement is elevated due to the large cosine error, and the data from these periods is therefore excluded from the satellite data adjustment and validation. Also from the view of any solar power installation (PV or CSP), sun elevation smaller than 5° is usually not contributing to electricity or heat generation due to shading, unfavorable incidence angles and low irradiance intensity. Subsequently, all further graphs and evaluations refer to sun elevations larger than 5°, as the main aim of the measurements on ground is the adjustment of the long-term satellite data. After excluding low sun elevations, the presence of shading in the morning is eliminated, but shading in the evening is still present before sunset for durations of up to more than one hour in the summer months. – ESMAP Pakistan – confidential - 12 SiteEvalReport_LahoreUET_2014-06 Direct Shading Impact Figure 8 shows the impact of shading on direct normal irradiation (DNI). DNI is modeled according to Bird (Bird et al., 1991) as a theoretical clear-sky DNI throughout the year and can be interpreted as the maximum solar resource. The impact of shading on this figure is therefore the maximum quantitative impact shading could have on solar resource. Figure 8: Shading Impact on BirdDNI for Sun Elevations >5° From the graph, it is visible that the obstacles mainly in the west are having a severe impact on direct irradiation. Due to their temporal extent of more than one hour before sunset, times with high DNI values are affected. Figure 9: Shading Impact for Sun Elevations >5° – ESMAP Pakistan – confidential - 13 SiteEvalReport_LahoreUET_2014-06 Figure 9 shows the impact of direct shading due to the reported obstructions. The left figure shows the percentage of time for all calendar months which is affected by direct shading. The right figure shows the quantitative impact of shading on the Bird- DNI summarized for each month. As could be expected from the shading tables, the time affected by shading amounts to around 5 % of the total time in the summer months, around 2-3 % in spring and fall and almost zero in the winter months, when the sun is setting before it reached the main obstacles. In total, 1.7 % of daylight time with sun elevation >5° throughout the year is affected by shading. For DNI reduction, the profile is very similar, the reduction goes up to 6 % in June and sums up to 2.4 % of the annual DNI. Diffuse Shading and Reflections No shading of diffuse radiation contributions and no reflections or artificial light sources would influence the potentially installed sensors notably. 3.4 Site 2 evaluation (solar test site east of water tower) Site 2 has been discarded already upon the site visit, because it is merely a copy of site 1, only shifted by 150 m to the east. The main obstacles in the west like the water tower are still present and the distance to obstacles in the east is reduced, increasing their impact. 3.5 Site 3 evaluation (CERD building rooftop) Coordinates N 31.6944° E 74.2442°, altitude 220 m above mean sea level The site is located on the flat concrete roof of the Centre for Energy Research and Development, the institute which would also be taking care of the measurement devices during the measurement campaign. – ESMAP Pakistan – confidential - 14 SiteEvalReport_LahoreUET_2014-06 Figure 10: View from Site to the North Figure 11: View from Site to the South Checklist for evaluation of the situation of and at the site The following checklist has been filled at the site visit and is completed by interviewing stakeholders (UET scientific staff) on site. Only the lines that differ from Site 1 are displayed here. Table 2: Site checklist for site 3 Criteria/Measure Yes / No Notes Dimensionsxxxi Minimum area 10 × 10 m² yes Firm natural groundxxxii no Ground typexxxiii Concrete Surface Horizontally levelledxxxiv yes Excavation for foundations Drilling / casting possiblexxxv possible Regarding the aspects covered by the checklist, the site is suitable for the installation of a ground measurement station. The ground is concrete, allowing drilling or casting of foundations for the fixation of the measurement equipment. The site is not a natural environment, which has an influence on meteorological variables like temperature or wind, but the solar irradiation is not influenced. – ESMAP Pakistan – confidential - 15 SiteEvalReport_LahoreUET_2014-06 Shadings and Reflections Panoramic View The picture in Figure 5 shows a panoramic view with a centered south view, North is on the left and right edge of the picture. Blue markers show the North, South, East and West direction as well as horizon height. The sun paths throughout the year are displayed in the picture, revealing if any objects on the horizon are imposing an obstruction to the direct solar irradiance. Figure 12: Panoramic View with North, South, horizon line and monthly sun paths with the corresponding position at full hours marked From the panoramic view, it is visible that no major obstacles are located within the trajectories of the sun. The impact of the communication tower in the east will be limited due to its slim, open structure and large distance. Shading Table for Sun Elevations >0° Figure 13: Shading Table for Sun Elevations >0° – ESMAP Pakistan – confidential - 16 SiteEvalReport_LahoreUET_2014-06 Figure 6 shows the shading table throughout the year. Only small shading influences at sunrise (and minimally at sunset) in April and September are visible. Shading Table for Sun Elevations >5° Figure 14: Shading Table for Sun Elevations >5° Figure 7 shows the shading table after excluding Sun Elevations smaller than 5° above horizon. At these low angles, measurement uncertainty of satellite and ground measurement is elevated due to the large cosine error, and the data from these periods is therefore excluded from the satellite data adjustment and validation. Also from the view of any solar power installation (PV or CSP), sun elevation smaller than 5° is usually not contributing to electricity or heat generation due to shading, unfavorable incidence angles and low irradiance intensity. Subsequently, all further graphs and evaluations refer to sun elevations larger than 5°, as the main aim of the measurements on ground is the adjustment of the long-term satellite data. After excluding low sun elevations, the presence of shading is practically eliminated. – ESMAP Pakistan – confidential - 17 SiteEvalReport_LahoreUET_2014-06 Direct Shading Impact Figure 8 shows the impact of shading on direct normal irradiation (DNI). DNI is modeled according to Bird (Bird et al., 1991) as a theoretical clear-sky DNI throughout the year and can be interpreted as the maximum solar resource. The impact of shading on this figure is therefore the maximum quantitative impact shading could have on solar resource. Figure 15: Shading Impact on BirdDNI for Sun Elevations >5° Subsequently, impact of shading on DNI is negligible. Figure 16: Shading Impact for Sun Elevations >5° Figure 9 shows the impact of direct shading due to the reported obstructions. The left figure shows the percentage of time for all calendar months which is affected by – ESMAP Pakistan – confidential - 18 SiteEvalReport_LahoreUET_2014-06 direct shading. The right figure shows the quantitative impact of shading on the Bird- DNI summarized for each month. The already stated negligible effect of shading by obstacles is also visible in these figures, being demonstrated by the curves being at or near zero throughout the year. In total, less than 0.1 % of the time and annual DNI sum is affected by shading. Diffuse Shading and Reflections No shading of diffuse radiation contributions and no reflections or artificial light sources would influence the potentially installed sensors notably. – ESMAP Pakistan – confidential - 19 SiteEvalReport_LahoreUET_2014-06 4 Conclusion The surroundings of the location are suitable for the installation of a ground measurement station. No significant external influence from surrounding facilities on the overall meteorological and atmospherical conditions could be stated during the site visit. The local stakeholder confirmed his support and smooth operation and proper maintenance of the station is expected with high probability. Future use of the equipment after the two years measurement by the local stakeholder is likely due to the foreseen research activities at CERD. On site 3, shading effects are virtually negligible, since practically no shadings occur in the relevant sun elevations which will be used for the comparison of ground and satellite data. The roof allows for easy casting of foundations or drilling for bolts. Site 3 is therefore recommended for the installation of a Tier 1 or 2 meteorological station. – ESMAP Pakistan – confidential - 20 SiteEvalReport_LahoreUET_2014-06 Detailed description of checklist criteria: i A site with a minimum extension of 10 × 10 m² is required for the collocation of the meteorological measurement equipment, complying with the characteristics and criteria listed in the following. ii The site suitable for collocation of a meteorological station needs to have a firm ground in order to enable a secure fixation of the equipment on the ground, e.g. by ground anchors and guying ropes. iii Annotate here if the ground consists of firm and naturally grown soil or artificially (by man) filled soil, if it consists of bedrock, firm soil, loose soil or sand. iv Annotate here if the site is approximately horizontally levelled and flat. v Annotate here if it is possible and permitted to lay small foundations (4-5 foundations each approximately 1 × 1 m² and ~0.3 m deep). vi Annotate here if it is possible and permitted to fence the compound. vii Annotate here the terrain consists of drifting sand or snow. viii Annotate here if the terrain may run the risk to be flooded at heavy rain falls. ix Describe any object which exceeds 2 m height in the closer environment of the site and which might shade the measurement equipment on the site from direct sun at any time of the year or which obstructs parts of the sky dome. Describe in detail at least all such objects within 30 m distance as well as bigger objects up to at least 200 m distance from the site. As the sun at sun rise and sun set approaches the horizon in East and West direction (~±30 degrees depending on season), obstructions in these directions are of particular importance. Add sketches of the site environments where possible. Possible obstructing objects are: mountains, hills, buildings, skyscrapers, houses, industrial or commercial buildings, warehouses, churches/mosques or similar buildings (for religious or cultural activities), walls, bridges, towers, chimneys, wind energy plants, transmission masts, power poles, other poles or rods, cranes, street lights, greenhouses, trees, bushes, shrubberies, any other higher vegetation, or similar. Moreover, the view from the site towards the horizon should be documented by 360° photographs (see corresponding description) or a short movie taken from the site, starting in direction to the North over East, South, and West to North direction again. x Annotate if any reflecting surfaces like mirrors, glazing, shiny metal surfaces, PV panels, etc., or artificial light sources are in the environments and might cause reflections or radiation on the measurement equipment, influencing irradiation measurements. xi Annotate if any industrial production site or power plant is located in the environments of a few kilometers, which may cause emissions of smoke, vapor, dust or other aerosols. xii Annotate any source of smoke or water vapor columns located in the environments. xiii Annotate quarries or mines in the environments causing pollution by elevated dust. – ESMAP Pakistan – confidential - 21 SiteEvalReport_LahoreUET_2014-06 xiv Annotate close by roads as they frequently cause increased sensor soiling by elevated dust settling down on the sensors, or increase the risk for theft or vandalism due to increased visibility. xv Annotate the presence of airports in the environments as exhaust gases of planes may influence the measurements. xvi Annotate the presence and size of settlements in the environments in order to judge potential influences on the measurements (personally or as secondary effects like smoke or dust) by man. xvii Annotate type and frequency (if possible) of agricultural activities in the environments in order to judge potential impacts on the measurements (e.g. elevated dust, etc.). xviii Annotate their potential presence in the environments in order to judge impacts on the measurements due to increased humidity, oxidation of the equipment, instability of the ground, etc. xix Annotate the presence of sand dunes in the proximities of some kilometers in order to judge potential deposition of sand on the equipment. xx Annotate if any animal population frequents the area which might have any impact on the measurements. Also take into account birds, termites, insects (bees, wasps, etc.), etc. xxi Annotate the occurrence and the frequency (if possible, may be estimated) of days with snowfall or remaining snow cover in order to design the power supply and version of the irradiation sensor(s). xxii Annotate the occurrence and the frequency (if possible, may be estimated) of days with temperatures below freezing point temperature (zero degrees Celsius) in order to design the equipment and judge potential impacts on the measurements. xxiii Annotate any other observations, occurrences or presences which you may estimate them causing potential impacts on the measurements. In the case of doubt about an influence, please annotate the observation. xxiv Annotate if the site is easily reachable by car in order to facilitate the transport of the equipment to the site. xxv Verify with your mobile phone or contacting a reliable local mobile phone network provider the availability of 2G network from different providers. If only 3G network (or higher) is available, verify with the network provider if GPRS connection in 2G mode is enabled. Check with your mobile phone by switching it manually to 2G connection only and test data connectivity via GPRS or EDGE. xxvi Annotate if electricity grid is available at the site for power supply. If information is available, annotate the voltage level and if grid stability issues are known for the site. xxvii Verify and annotate if the land use permits are conceded or given from the land owner. xxviii Verify and annotate if the permits to use the compound for operation of a meteorological station are conceded or given by law and local authorities. xxix Verify and annotate if no high voltage lines (exceeding 20 V) are crossing the compound neither as overhead line nor in the ground. Verify and annotate if no gas, water, remote heat or other pipeline are crossing the compound above or in the ground. – ESMAP Pakistan – confidential - 22 SiteEvalReport_LahoreUET_2014-06 xxx Estimate the risk of theft or vandalism on the measurement equipment. Give an estimation of a safety guard or similar is required to watch the equipment. Detailed description of checklist criteria: xxxi A site with a minimum extension of 10 × 10 m² is required for the collocation of the meteorological measurement equipment, complying with the characteristics and criteria listed in the following. xxxii The site suitable for collocation of a meteorological station needs to have a firm ground in order to enable a secure fixation of the equipment on the ground, e.g. by ground anchors and guying ropes. xxxiii Annotate here if the ground consists of firm and naturally grown soil or artificially (by man) filled soil, if it consists of bedrock, firm soil, loose soil or sand. xxxiv Annotate here if the site is approximately horizontally levelled and flat. xxxv Annotate here if it is possible and permitted to lay small foundations (4-5 foundations each approximately 1 × 1 m² and ~0.3 m deep). – ESMAP Pakistan – confidential - 23 SiteEvalReport_LahoreUET_2014-06