WORLDBANKGROUP GROPE Q GFDRR EI ANDCENTRALA5IA (ECA) RI5K PROFILES AFFECTED BY 100-YEAR AFFECTED BY 250-YEAR CAPITAL LOSS FROM 250-YEAR FLOOD EARTHQUAKE EARTHQUAKE GDP $86.4 billion* Slovak Repubili e Ppuaton5. mllon T he Slovak Republic's popula- from services, most of the remainder estimated using flood and earthquake Annual Average of Affected GOP tion and economy are exposed generated by industry and agricul- risk models. to earthquakes and floods, ture making a small contribution. The F with floods posing the greater risk. Slovak Republics per capita GDP was The table displays the provinces at 1 - The model results for present-day $16,000. greatest normalized risk for each -; risk shown in this risk profile are peril. In relative terms, as shown in based on population and gross do- This map displays GDP by province the table, the province at greatest mestic product (GDP) estimates for in the Slovak Republic, with greater risk of floods is Trnava, and the one 2015. The estimated damage caused color saturation indicating greater at greatest risk of earthquakes is GOP (billions of $) by historical events is inflated to GDP within a province. The blue cir- Bratislava. In absolute terms, the 2015 US dollars. ces indicate the risk of experiencing province at greatest risk of floods is floods and the orange circles the risk Trnava, and the one at greatest risk of POLAND I lI Just over half of the Slovak Republic's of earthquakes in terms of normal- earthqukes is Bratislava. population lives in urban environ- ized annual avenge of affected GDP. ments. The country's GDP was ap- The largest circles represent the proximately US$86.4 billion in 2015, greatest normalized risk. The risk is There is a high correlation ture makicles ahan tesml(r=O.95) ndicte between the ris ofxper withakorepuhanapopulation encin and GDP ofa province. TOP AFFECTED PROVINCES UKRAINE GoD EARTHQUAKE ANNUAL AVERAGE OF ANNUAL AVERAGE OF AFFECTED GfP (%) AFFECTED GDP orange cr Trnava 1 e qBratislava Zilna Nitra 1 Nitra Tnnava 1 Banska Bystrica Kosice 0 aaNt, Trencin Trencin 0 l Kosice Presov 0 t Bratislava 2 Bafska Bystrica 0 Presov 0 B rtlni a terms the , Rep blicWORLDBANKGROUP Slova U Q GFDRRK PRFINESETAA5AEA T he most deadly flood in the flood will occur exactly once every intense events can still have large Affected GDP (%) for Slovak Republic since it gained 100 years. In fact, it is possible for a impacts. 10 and 100-year return periods its independence in 1993 oc- flood of any return period to occur One block= 2% 20 curred in 1998 and caused more than more than once in the same year, or The annual average population 50 fatalities and over $60 million in to appear in consecutive years, or not affected by flooding in the Slovak 10 damage. Flooding in 1999 caused just to happen at all over a long period of Republic is about 200,000 and the Annua[ average 4 two fatalities but over $200 million time. annual average affected GDP about $3 in damage. Floods in 2001 and 2002 billion. Within the various provinces, the 10- and 100-year impacts do not 10-year 100-year caused about $8 million and $4 Ifthe 10- and 100-year bars are the million in damage, respectively. More same height, then the impact of a 10- differ much, so relatively frequent recently, flooding in 2010 caused year event is as large as that of a 100- floods have large impacts on these almost $30 million in damage. This year event, and the annual average of averages. Annual Average of Affected GDP record highlights the Slovak Repub- affected GDP is dominated by events lic's great vulnerability to floods, that happen relatively frequently. whose rapid succession has a large If the impact of a 100-year event is cumulative effect on the country. much greater than that of a 10-year 0 1 4 event, then less frequent events make POLAND This map depicts the impact of flood- a larger contribution to the annual ing on provinces' GDPs, represented average of affected GDP. Thus, even as percentages of their annual aver- if a province's annual affected GDP age GDPs affected, with greater color seems small, less frequent and more saturation indicating higher percent- ages. The bar graphs represent GDP affected by floods with return periods of 10 years (white) and 100 years ZEHRPBI (black). The horizontal line across the bars also shows the annual average of GDP affected by floods. ren n 'KRINE When a flood has a 10-year return period, it means the probability of occurrence of a flood of that magni- tude or greater is 10 percent per year. A 100-year flood has a probability of occurrence of 1 percent per year Bra This means that over a long period of time, a flood of that magnitude will, on average, occur once every 100 years. It does not mean a 100-year ScWORLDBANKGROUP ED ROPE AND EENTRALA5IA(ECA) T he most significant earthquake If the 10- and 100-year bars are the by earthquakes are about one and Affected GOP (%) for since 1900 to affect the Slovak same height, then the impact of a 10- about $50 million, respectively. The 10 and 100-year return periods Republic occurred in 1906, year event is as large as that of a 100- fatalities and capital losses caused One block = 1% 10 while one of the earliest known year event, and the annual average of by more intense, less frequent events occurred in 1443, near Banska affected GDP is dominated by events can be substantially larger than the 5 Stiavnica. that happen relatively frequently. annual averages. For example, an Annual average 2 If the impact of a 100-year event is earthquake with a 0.4 percent annual This map depicts the impact of much greater than that of a 10-year probability of occurrence (a 250-year 10-year 100-year earthquakes on provinces' GDPs, event, then less frequent events make return period event) could cause represented as percentages of their larger contributions to the annual av- about $2 billion in capital loss (about annual average GDPs affected, with erage of affected GDP. Thus, even if a 2 percent of GDP). greater color saturation indicating province's annual affected GDP seems Annual Average of Affected GOP (%) higher percentages. The bar graphs small, less frequent and more intense represent GDP affected by earth- events can still have large impacts. quakes with return periods of 10 years (white) and 100 years (black). The annual average population 0 C The horizontal line across the bars affected by earthquakes in the Slovak P0 LAND also shows the annual average of GDP Republic is about 20,000 and the affected by earthquakes. annual average affected GDP about $400 million. The annual averages of When an earthquake has a 10-year fatalities and capital losses caused return period, it means the probabil- ity of occurrence of an earthquake of that magnitude or greater is 10 'r percent per year. A 100-year earth- 7ECIH REPUBL C 9iPresov quake has a probability of occurrence of 1 percent per year. This means that over a long period of time, an Trencin earthquake of that magnitude will, on I FAN average, occur once every 100 years. Kosice It does not mean a 100-year earth-- Banska Bystrica quake will occur exactly once every 100 years. In fact, it is possible for nava an earthquake of any return period to occur more than once in the same i year, or to appear in consecutive years, or not to happen at all over a long period of time. uN CARY H/ epu licWORLDBANKGROUP Slo ak E|GFDRR s"AND CENTRAL A51A(ECA) EARTHQUAKE EARTHQUAKE ANNUAL AVERAGE CAPITAL LOSS (MILLIONS $) ANNUAL AVERAGE FATALITIES he rose diagrams show the provinces with the potential for greatest annual average capital losses and highest i reoo annual average numbers of fatalities, as determined using an earthquake risk model. The potential for greatest capital loss occurs in Bratislava, which is not surprising, given the Brat economic importance of the province. EARTHQUAKE EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITY CURVE, 2015 AND 2080 EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITY CURVE, 2015 AND 2080 7he exceedance probability curves display the GDP T affected by, respectively, floods and earthquakes for 80 120 varying probabilities of occurrence. Values for two different 70 time periods are shown. A solid line depicts the affected 100 GDP for 2015 conditions. A diagonally striped hand depicts 60a the range of affected GDP based on a selection of climate 2580and socioeconomic scenarios for 2080. For example, if the 2080 40 C n Slovak Republic had experienced a 10-year return period flood event in 2015, the affected GDP would have been 304028 3048 an estimated $10 billion. In 2080, however, the affected 2015 20 GDP from the same type of event would range from about 10 20 $20 billion to about $70 billion. If the Slovak Republic had I_ I__ F_______ Iexperienced _ a 250-year earthquake event in 2015, the af- 10 50 100 250 10 50 100 250 fected GDP would have been about $20 billion. In 2080, the Return period (years) Return period (years) affected GDP from the same type of event would range from 10 2 1 10 2 1 0.4 about $30 billion to about $100 billion, due to population Probalpity (% Probability (%) growth, urbanization, and the increase in exposed assets. All histoical data on floods and earthquakes are from, respectively, D.Guha-Sapir, R.Below, and Ph. Hoyois, EM-DAT: International Disaster Database (Universit6 Catholique de Louvain, Brussels, Belgium), www.emdat.be, and 1. Daniell and A Schaefer, "Eastern Europe and Central Asia Region Earthquake Risk Assessment Country and Province Profiling," final reportto GFDRR, 2014. Damage estimates for all historical events have been inflated to 2015 US$.