EUROPE AND CENTRAL ASIA (ECA) AFFECTED AFFECTED CAPITAL LOSS RISK PROFILES BY 100-YEAR BY 250-YEAR FROM 250-YEAR FLOOD EARTHQUAKE EARTHQUAKE Turkmenistan GDP $50.0 billion* $3 billion (7%) $30 billion (52%) $5 billion (10%) Population 5.4 million* 400,000 (7%) 3 million (50%) 10,000 (<1%) *2015 estimates KAZA K H S TA N T urkmenistan’s population close to 50 percent derived from and economy are exposed to industry, most of the remainder earthquakes and floods, with generated by services, and agricul- earthquakes posing the greater risk ture making a small contribution. U Z B E K I S TA N of a high impact, lower probability Turkmenistan’s per capita GDP event. The model results for pres- was $9,230. ent-day risk shown in this risk profile This map displays GDP by prov- Tashauz are based on population and gross domestic product (GDP) estimates ince in Turkmenistan, with greater for 2015. The estimated damage color saturation indicating greater caused by historical events is inflated GDP within a province. The blue to 2015 US dollars. circles indicate the risk of expe- riencing floods and the orange Just over half of Turkmenistan’s pop- circles the risk of earthquakes in Turkmenistan Territories ulation lives in rural environments. terms of normalized annual av- Chardzhou The country’s GDP was approxi- erage of affected GDP. The largest mately US$50.0 billion in 2015, with circles represent the greatest nor- Ashgabat malized risk. The risk is estimated using flood and earthquake risk models. TOP AFFECTED PROVINCES Mary The table displays the provinces at greatest normalized risk for each peril. In relative terms, as FLOOD EARTHQUAKE shown in the table, the province at ANNUAL AVERAGE OF ANNUAL AVERAGE OF greatest risk of floods is Char- AFFECTED GDP (%) AFFECTED GDP (%) ISLAMIC REPUBLIC OF IRAN zhou, and the one at greatest risk Chardzhou 2 Turkmenistan 4 of earthquakes is Turkmenistan A F G H A N I S TA N Turkmenistan 1 Territories Territories. In absolute terms, it is Territories Chardzhou 4 Annual Average of Affected GDP (%) GDP (billions of $) Mary 1 Mary 1 Turkmenistan Territories. 4 There is a high correlation Tashauz 0 Tashauz 0 FLOOD (r=0.95) between the 1 population and GDP of a EARTHQUAKE 7. 8. 8. 26 province. 3 2 7 Negligible 119 Turkmenistan FLOOD EUROPE AND CENTRAL ASIA (ECA) RISK PROFILES T he worst flood in Turkmeni- affected GDP is dominated by events KAZA K H S TA N stan since it gained its inde- that happen relatively frequently. pendence in 1991 occurred in If the impact of a 100-year event is 1993 and caused about $200 million much greater than that of a 10-year in damage. event, then less frequent events make a larger contribution to the annual This map depicts the impact of flood- average of affected GDP. Thus, even ing on provinces’ GDPs, represented if a province’s annual affected GDP as percentages of their annual aver- seems small, less frequent and more age GDPs affected, with greater color U Z B E K I S TA N intense events can still have large saturation indicating higher percent- impacts. ages. The bar graphs represent GDP affected by floods with return periods The annual average population affect- Tashauz of 10 years (white) and 100 years ed by flooding in Turkmenistan is (black). The horizontal line across the about 70,000 and the annual average bars also shows the annual average of affected GDP about $700 million. GDP affected by floods. When a flood has a 10-year return period, it means the probability of Turkmenistan Territories occurrence of a flood of that magni- Chardzhou tude or greater is 10 percent per year. A 100-year flood has a probability Ashgabat of occurrence of 1 percent per year. This means that over a long period of time, a flood of that magnitude will, Mary on average, occur once every 100 years. It does not mean a 100-year flood will occur exactly once every 100 years. In fact, it is possible for a ISLAMIC REPUBLIC OF IRAN flood of any return period to occur more than once in the same year, or Affected GDP (%) for to appear in consecutive years, or not 10 and 100-year return periods A F G H A N I S TA N to happen at all over a long period of One block = 1% time. 10 Annual Average of Affected GDP (%) If the 10- and 100-year bars are the 5 Annual average 2 same height, then the impact of a 10- year event is as large as that of a 100- 10-year 100-year year event, and the annual average of 0 1 2 4 6 8 120 Turkmenistan EARTHQUAKE EUROPE AND CENTRAL ASIA (ECA) RISK PROFILES T urkmenistan’s worst earth- appear in consecutive years, or not KAZA K H S TA N quake since 1900 took place to happen at all over a long period in 1948 in Aschgabad, with a of time. magnitude of 7.3. It caused any- where from 50,000 to over 100,000 If the 10- and 100-year bars are the fatalities and almost $4 billion in same height, then the impact of a damage. Other significant earth- 10-year event is as large as that of a quakes affecting Turkmenistan 100-year event, and the annual aver- occurred in 1895, 1929, and 1946. age of affected A S P is CGDP I Adominated N SEA by events that happen relatively fre- U Z B E K I S TA N This map depicts the impact of quently. If the impact of a 100-year earthquakes on provinces’ GDPs, event is much greater than that of represented as percentages of their a 10-year event, then less frequent Tashauz annual average GDPs affected, with events make larger contributions to greater color saturation indicating the annual average of affected GDP. higher percentages. The bar graphs Thus, even if a province’s annual represent GDP affected by earth- affected GDP seems small, less fre- quakes with return periods of 10 quent and more intense events can years (white) and 100 years (black). still have large impacts. Turkmenistan Territories The horizontal line across the bars The annual average population Chardzhou also shows the annual average of GDP affected by earthquakes. affected by earthquakes in Turk- menistan is about 100,000 and the Ashgabat When an earthquake has a 10-year annual average affected GDP about return period, it means the prob- $2 billion. The annual averages of ability of occurrence of an earth- fatalities and capital losses caused Mary quake of that magnitude or greater by earthquakes are about 300 and is 10 percent per year. A 100-year about $200 million, respectively. earthquake has a probability of The fatalities and capital losses occurrence of 1 percent per year. caused by more intense, less fre- ISLAMIC REPUBLIC OF IRAN This means that over a long period quent events can be substantially of time, an earthquake of that mag- larger than the annual averages. For Affected GDP (%) for nitude will, on average, occur once example, an earthquake with a 0.4 10 and 100-year return periods A F G H A N I S TA N every 100 years. It does not mean percent annual probability of oc- One block = 10% a 100-year earthquake will occur currence (a 250-year return period 70 Annual Average of Affected GDP (%) exactly once every 100 years. In event) could cause about 10,000 40 Annual average 20 fact, it is possible for an earthquake fatalities and $5 billion in capital of any return period to occur more loss (about 10 percent of GDP). than once in the same year, or to 10-year 100-year 0 1 2 4 6 8 121 Turkmenistan EUROPE AND CENTRAL ASIA (ECA) RISK PROFILES 122 EARTHQUAKE EARTHQUAKE ANNUAL AVERAGE CAPITAL LOSS ($) ANNUAL AVERAGE FATALITIES T s2 n s2 n he rose diagrams show the provinces with the potential rie ista 00 rie ista 00 ito en Ta ito en Ta for greatest annual average capital losses and highest Te urkm sh Te urkm sh au au annual average numbers of fatalities, as determined using z z1 rr rr T T 5 0 an earthquake risk model. The potential for greatest capital loss occurs in Turkmenistan Territories, which is not sur- prising, given the economic importance of the province. 20 Ch 20 Ch y ar ar ar y dz ar dz M M ho ho u u 50 50 FLOOD EARTHQUAKE EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITY CURVE, 2015 AND 2080 40 160 EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITY CURVE, 2015 AND 2080 T he exceedance probability curves display the GDP affected by, respectively, floods and earthquakes for varying probabilities of occurrence. Values for two different 35 140 time periods are shown. A solid line depicts the affected Affected GDP (billions of $) GDP for 2015 conditions. A diagonally striped band depicts 30 120 the range of affected GDP based on a selection of climate 2080 25 100 2080 and socioeconomic scenarios for 2080. For example, if 20 80 Turkmenistan had experienced a 100-year return period flood event in 2015, the affected GDP would have been an 15 60 estimated $3 billion. In 2080, however, the affected GDP 10 40 from the same type of event would range from about $10 2015 2015 5 20 billion to about $30 billion. If Turkmenistan had experi- enced a 250-year earthquake event in 2015, the affected 10 50 100 250 10 50 100 250 GDP would have been about $30 billion. In 2080, the Return period (years) Return period (years) affected GDP from the same type of event would range from 10 2 1 0.4 10 2 1 0.4 about $90 billion to about $140 billion, due to population Probability (%) Probability (%) growth, urbanization, and the increase in exposed assets. All historical data on floods and earthquakes are from, respectively, D. Guha-Sapir, R. Below, and Ph. Hoyois, EM-DAT: International Disaster Database (Université Catholique de Louvain, Brussels, Belgium), www.emdat.be, and J. Daniell and A. Schaefer, “Eastern Europe and Central Asia Region Earthquake Risk Assessment Country and Province Profiling,” final report to GFDRR, 2014. Damage estimates for all historical events have been inflated to 2013 US$. More information on the data and context can be found in the full publication, Europe and Central Asia Country Risk Profiles for Floods and Earthquakes, at www. gfdrr.org/publications, or by contacting Joaquin Toro (jtoro@worldbank.org) or Dr. Alanna Simpson (asimpson1@worldbank.org). Please see the full publication for the complete disclaimer and limitations on methodology. Although GFDRR makes reasonable efforts to ensure all the information presented in this document is correct, its accuracy and integrity cannot be guaranteed.