ECONOMIC IMPACTS OF CHILD MARRIAGE: GLOBAL SYNTHESIS BRIEF Page 1 · ECONOMIC IMPACTS OF CHILD MARRIAGE: GLOBAL SYNTHESIS BRIEF June 2017 ECONOMIC IMPACTS OF CHILD MARRIAGE: GLOBAL SYNTHESIS BRIEF OVERVIEW Each day, more than 41,000 girls worldwide are married while still children, often before they may be physically and emotionally ready to become wives and mothers. Child marriage, defined as marriage or a union taking place before the age of 18, endangers the life trajectories of these girls in numerous ways. Child brides are at greater risk of experiencing a range of poor health outcomes, having children at younger ages, having more children over their lifetimes, dropping out of school, earning less over their lifetimes and living in poverty than their peers who marry at later ages. Child brides may also be more likely to experience intimate partner violence, have restricted physical mobility, and limited decision-making ability. Most fundamentally, these girls may be disempowered in ways that deprive them of their basic rights to health, education, equality, non-discrimination, and to live free from violence and exploitation, which continue to affect them into adulthood. These dynamics affect not only the girls themselves, but their children, households, communities and societies, limiting their ability to reach their full social and economic potential. While child marriage is widely considered a human rights issue closely connected to gender inequality,1 the significance of the practice’s impacts at both the individual and societal levels suggests that ending child marriage may play an important role in alleviating poverty and in promoting economic development. Ending child marriage can improve health at the individual and population levels, increase productivity and enhance the opportunity to realize the gains in a country’s economic growth that can result from declining birth rates and a shifting population age structure, commonly referred to as the ‘demographic dividend.’ To date, however, there has been relatively little in the way of rigorous assessment of the economic impacts of child marriage or how much child marriage may “cost” countries and societies. To address this challenge, the International Center for Research on Women (ICRW) and the World Bank collaborated on an extensive and innovative research project to assess the impacts of child marriage on a range of development outcomes, and to understand the economic costs associated with these impacts across countries. By establishing the effects that child marriage has on economic outcomes, the research project aimed to catalyze more effective and evidence-based action to prevent it. In this brief, we synthesize global findings from this research. The full report detailing the global economic impacts of child marriage, as well as reports and briefs focused on these impacts at the country-level and for specific issue areas, can be found at www.costsofchildmarriage.org  1 As enshrined in UN General Assembly Resolution 71/175 (December, 2016), “child, early and forced marriage is a harmful practice that violates, abuses or impairs human rights.” Page 1 · ECONOMIC IMPACTS OF CHILD MARRIAGE: GLOBAL SYNTHESIS BRIEF June 2017 CHILD MARRIAGE GLOBALLY Finally, the review found that, while the consequences of child marriage are felt most acutely at the individual level, While the proportion of girls marrying as children is declining child marriage is likely to also have profound and far reaching globally, this decline is not occurring in all countries or taking effects at national and global levels in the form of lost earnings place equitably within countries, nor is it happening at a and intergenerational transmission of poverty. In short, the sufficiently fast pace to see an end to the practice in the literature indicated that the economic impacts and cost of coming decades. Indeed, rates of both child marriage and child marriage are likely to be very high for the girls who marry early childbearing have seen recent declines, but progress has early, their children, their families, their communities and been uneven, and many of the cultural, economic and social society at large. factors that have historically contributed to child marriage persist today. Further, because of the young age structures in Based on this initial review as well as further review and many countries affected by child marriage, without significant analysis [2] , ICRW and the World Bank developed a conceptual changes in the immediate future, the total number of child framework, shown on the next page, which posited the brides in the world will remain stagnant or even increase. main impacts of child marriage in five domains: Fertility and These alarming facts demonstrate the urgency of acting to end Population Growth; Educational Attainment and Learning; this harmful practice. Labor Force Participation; Participation, Decision-making and Investments; and Health, Nutrition and Violence. The international community has become increasingly aware of the negative consequences of child marriage. Ending child We postulated that each of these domains may have mutually reinforcing effects, and that various impacts could take place marriage by 2030 is now a target under the Sustainable through multiple pathways. These impacts could be measured Development Goals (SDGs), yet relatively few countries have at the national level through three different types of costs adopted comprehensive strategies to end the practice, and or benefits, among others, related to: Earnings, Productivity, investments in programs and policies focusing on preventing Household Consumption and GDP per capita; Public and and ending the harmful practice remain limited. Interventions Private Expenditures (such as those spent on education and to empower women and educate girls, both of which have health); and Non-monetary and social costs (here, for example, been shown to reduce child marriage, are being implemented we recognize that maternal or under-five mortality have costs in many countries, including with support from the World that go beyond economic costs). Bank, UNFPA, UNICEF and governments and foundations. But Finally, these impacts and associated costs could lead to while these efforts represent good progress in addressing broader consequences at the national level in terms of the child marriage, given the significant negative impacts and eradication of extreme poverty, as well as the promotion of high associated costs of the practice, as well as its relative shared prosperity, as part of a development process that pervasiveness in many countries, much more must be done. benefits poorer and more vulnerable groups in society. A CONCEPTUAL FRAMEWORK: THE ECONOMIC IMPACTS OF CHILD MARRIAGE As a starting point for this research, ICRW and the World Bank undertook a literature review designed to better understand the pathways through which child marriage may contribute to a variety of development impacts for child brides over their life course, and in turn, to assess how these impacts may affect costs, from the household to the national level[1]. The review found ample evidence that girls who marry early have little decision-making power within the marital home, a greater likelihood of school dropout and illiteracy, lower labor force participation and earnings, and less control over productive household assets. Because child brides often become mothers during adolescence, they and their children are likely to experience poorer overall health and nutrition. Girls who bear children early have more dangerous, difficult and complicated births, and tend to have less healthy and less educated children than their peers who marry later. Adolescent mothers are at higher risk of maternal mortality and morbidity than mothers just a few years older, and maternal mortality and morbidity come with a wide range of economic and social costs and impacts at the individual and household levels. Page 2 · ECONOMIC IMPACTS OF CHILD MARRIAGE: GLOBAL SYNTHESIS BRIEF June 2017 Figure 1: Conceptual Framework for the Study Domains of Impact Aggregate Measures Development Of Impacts And Costs Outcomes Fertility and population growth CHILD MARRIAGE Earnings, productivity & Health, nutrition and violence consumption per capita Multiple pathways Educational attainment and learning and intergenerational Perpetuation Of Extreme effects through which Poverty And Private impacts are observed & public Inequality Participation in the labor force expenditures and type of work Participation, decision-making and investments Non-monetary and social costs ANALYTICAL APPROACH focus on Ethiopia, Nepal and Niger. Governments in these countries have shown strong commitments to ending child marriage and are supporting a range of policies and actions The conceptual framework guided the selection of domains, or to do so. Regression analyses and simulation tools were themes, to be analyzed using both existing data and new data used to isolate – to the extent feasible - the effects of child collected from three countries. While data were sometimes marriage and calculate the economic costs associated with available for more or fewer countries, the study focused on some of these impacts. Qualitative analyses helped to better 15 to 25 countries depending on the topic being considered. understand the lived experiences of women who were married The core 15 countries for which most estimations were as children and some of the drivers of child marriage. conducted include three South Asian countries (Bangladesh, A detailed discussion of the methods used and their limitations Nepal and Pakistan), one country from the Middle East can be found in the full Global Synthesis Report available at (Egypt), six countries from West and Central Africa (Burkina Faso, Democratic Republic of Congo, Mali, Niger, Nigeria and www.costsofchildmarriage.org  Republic of Congo), and five countries from East and Southern Africa (Ethiopia, Malawi, Mozambique, Uganda and Zambia). It is important to note that, due to the use of many For some estimations of impacts and costs, a larger set of assumptions and a lack of data for some potential impacts countries were included in the analysis, including those from and costs, the costs and other figures presented here should Latin America and the Caribbean. In some cases, estimations not be considered as precise. Only orders of magnitude of based in part on extrapolations were carried for more than the costs associated with child marriage are provided. Overall 100 countries. though, impacts and costs appear to be large. For all countries, the main surveys used for estimations were Demographic and Health Surveys, or DHS, as well as Living IMPACTS OF CHILD MARRIAGE Standards Measurement Surveys. The results are based typically on the latest DHS available at the time of the analysis. Our analyses and findings are organized around the five key Priority was given to countries with a relatively high incidence domains of impact identified in the conceptual framework: of child marriage and early childbirths, but some countries Fertility and Population Growth; Health, Nutrition and Violence; (such as Egypt) were selected because having a broader Educational Attainment and Learning; Participation in the range of prevalence rates was critical in order to obtain global Labor Force and Type of Work; and Participation, Decision- estimates [2]. Overall, these countries represent diverse Making and Investments. Each of these is discussed in turn settings in regions of the world where child marriage, as well below. as early childbirths, are highest (sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia). Fertility and Population Growth In addition to analysis of existing data, the project fielded nationally representative household surveys in Ethiopia and Child marriage has a large impact on both the likelihood that Niger, as well as qualitative research in six countries, with a girls will have a child before turning 18 and on how many children they will have in their lifetime. Our findings confirm Page 3 · ECONOMIC IMPACTS OF CHILD MARRIAGE: GLOBAL SYNTHESIS BRIEF June 2017 previous evidence that women who marry earlier are likely to marrying at age 17 and those marrying at or above age 18 [3]. begin having children earlier and may continue having children Ending child marriage would reduce the total fertility rate (TFR) for longer, resulting in higher overall fertility [3]. in these countries by an average of 11 percent, with a range of between seven percent in Egypt and 18 percent in Bangladesh. Such reductions in TFR would have very significant implications for the population growth rates of these countries. As one might expect, the effect of child marriage on fertility is What Do We Mean generally the highest in the countries that have the highest by Impacts and rates of child marriage, as more women are at risk of having Associated Costs? an early childbirth and increased lifelong childbearing in those contexts. The aim of the study is to estimate Our analyses show that ending child marriage - particularly the impacts of child marriage on marriages that take place when girls are very young - could development outcomes and the result in slight increases in the use of modern contraception at economic costs associated with some the aggregate level, although this is not the case in all countries of these impacts. The term “impact” [5]. For the most part, though, the changes in fertility rates that is used for simplicity, but one must be our models predict would likely be driven through decreasing careful about not necessarily inferring the proportion of women’s lives spent at risk of pregnancy and causality. Most estimates of impacts are childbearing as a result of increasing the ages at which girls obtained through regression analysis in marry and begin childbearing. order to control for other variables that may affect the outcomes of interest. The effects of child marriage on fertility have implications for In some cases, simulations are used. both individual women and for the countries they live in. To What is measured are thus statistical illustrate this, we conducted simulations looking at the effects associations, and not necessarily that ending child marriage would have, beginning in 2015 and impacts as could be observed, for ending in 2030. We find that ending child marriage and the example, with randomized control early childbearing that is associated with it would have large trials. Since child marriage cannot be effects on population growth rates [6]. By 2030, the population randomized, we must rely on regression of many of the countries in this study would be reduced by two analysis in order to estimate likely percent or more if child marriage were ended immediately, impacts, but there is always a risk which would, in turn, have significant positive effects on of bias in the measures of the likely national budgets and welfare. impacts of child marriage. Based on measures of likely impacts, costs associated with selected impacts are then computed. Note that we provide “When we have lots of cost estimates only for some, and not all children we can’t raise them impacts. These costs rely on a number of assumptions and are thus tentative. properly. But what if I had two Overall, the costs represent an order of or three children, I would be magnitude of potential costs rather than precise estimations. For more details on able to raise them properly. I the methodology and how it relates to would be able to fulfill all their key empirical findings, see [2]. needs and even I could send them to private school...Now Across our 15 countries, on average more than one in three I regret…I was very young girls (36.6 percent) marry before turning 18, and almost one [when I got married] so I didn’t in five women between the ages of 18 and 22 have given birth before they turned 18. As is the case globally, the vast know this.” majority of early childbearing in these countries takes place within marriage [4] , making the prevention of child marriage a critical component of achieving a wide range of health and “When a girl has physically development outcomes related to both child marriage and matured we assume her early childbearing. to be ready for marriage in As shown in Figure 2, we estimate that marrying at age 13 order not to lose her to the rather than at 18 or later increases the number of children a woman will have by an average of 26 percent, with the effect more rugged boys in the being even larger in some countries. The impact remains community.” large (an increase of 17 percent) even when considering the QUALITATIVE DATA COLLECTED BY ICRW difference in predicted number of children between those AND THE WORLD BANK. Page 4 · ECONOMIC IMPACTS OF CHILD MARRIAGE: GLOBAL SYNTHESIS BRIEF June 2017 Figure 2: Impact of Child Marriage on Number of Live Births over Lifetime, Marrying at age 13 versus 18 or later IMPACTS ON FERTILITY AND POPULATION GROWTH Estimated Global Impacts “My first baby was small. • Ending child marriage could reduce the total fertility rate The second was 5 months by 11% across 15 countries. old, and I was pregnant • Ending child marriage could reduce the share of girls having a child by age 18 by three-fourths. again as my husband did • Ending child marriage could result in a slight increase in forceful contact with me.” the use of modern contraception. • Ending child marriage and early childbirths would reduce population growth substantially. “[She] was 12 years old Sources: [3], [4], [5], [6]. when she married. She lost her first child at age Health, Nutrition and Violence fourteen and was advised Child marriage can impact the health of both the girls who are to wait several years married early and their children. While a number of factors influence how child marriage influences health, giving birth at before trying again. Her a very early age (i.e., under age 15) is particularly risky. For the last pregnancy came with girls themselves, their physical immaturity may increase the a series of complications likelihood of complications during pregnancy and childbirth, resulting in higher risks of both maternal mortality and that finally claimed her morbidity. There may also be associated health risks for the life a week after delivery.” children of child brides. QUALITATIVE DATA COLLECTED BY ICRW AND THE WORLD BANK. While we did not conduct any new work on the relationship between child marriage and maternal mortality, the global evidence suggests higher rates of maternal morbidity and We did not calculate for this study the costs of maternal mortality for adolescent girls who give birth, particularly mortality and morbidity due to child marriage, nor other those married at the very youngest ages. This does not mean, potential impacts and costs for women’s health, such as however, that ending child marriage would necessarily reduce psychological wellbeing. However, in terms of the health of the maternal mortality ratios. Indeed, while delaying marriage children of child brides, the study estimated the impacts of should reduce the risks of maternal mortality when giving early childbearing, which is itself mostly due to child marriage. birth at a very young age, we still don’t know enough about the The impacts are substantial. We considered child health in relationship between delaying child marriage and the risks of terms of both under-five mortality [7] and having delayed giving birth later in life. physical development due to a lack of appropriate nutrition, in Page 5 · ECONOMIC IMPACTS OF CHILD MARRIAGE: GLOBAL SYNTHESIS BRIEF June 2017 based constraints to staying in school. In contexts where the other words, stunting [8]. Taking into account a wide range of out-of-pocket and opportunity costs of secondary school other factors, our analyses show that being born to a mother remain a challenge for the poor, and where employment younger than 18 increases the risk of under-five mortality by opportunities for young women are limited, for example, 3.5 percentage points on average, and risk of stunting by 6.3 families may prioritize investments in boys’ rather than percentage points on average. girls’ education. Once out of school, many girls face limited prospects, with marriage among the few available to them. The marginal impacts of child marriage on under-five mortality Our analyses confirm the strong relationship between child and stunting are large and have clear implications for those marriage and poor educational outcomes. Child brides in children. However, ending child marriage will only shift rates every country included in this study are much more likely to have dropped out of school than their peers who married later of under-five mortality or stunting at the national level slightly, and tend to have completed fewer years of education, both because only a small share of children is born to mothers of which have important implications for their ability to enter who are younger than 18 each year. In other words, early the formal labor force and to earn money once they do so. In marriage and childbearing can have significant consequences our analyses, we find that lower educational attainment has for child health, but there are not enough of these children to impacts on a range of other outcomes, as well. significantly influence national-level statistics. We find that every year of early marriage before the age of 18 A further way in which child marriage may influence health reduces the likelihood of girls’ secondary school completion outcomes is through intimate partner violence (IPV), by four to six percentage points, with larger impacts in regions (and countries) where completion rates are higher [10]. This which prior research has found to be higher among those relationship is confirmed through the reasons that parents married at very early ages. Acknowledging that surveys may and principals give for girls’ school dropout. In many of the underestimate IPV, analysis carried out for this study suggests countries, marriage is one of the principal reasons listed, with that, for the majority of countries, the risk of experiencing IPV marriage and schooling often seen as incompatible ‘either-or’ is indeed higher when girls marry very early (at or under 15 alternatives. years of age). For the set of African countries included in the study for which DHS data include a module on IPV, eliminating child marriage today would lead to an estimated decline in IPV of almost three to six percent depending on the age group considered [9]. There are a number of countries where effects “It’s not that I wanted to [drop are not statistically significant. However, there are also likely out of school], it was out of to be indirect effects at work through the negative impact ignorance that my parents that child marriage has on girls’ educational attainment, given that a reduction in IPV is often observed for women with a said that a girl’s schooling is higher level of education, even though these effects would not not the same thing as a boy’s necessarily be large at the national level, given that not all girls and so they should pull me out who delay marriage may be able to complete a higher level of education. of school to give me away in marriage. I did not want that.” IMPACTS OF CHILD MARRIAGE ON HEALTH, NUTRITION AND VIOLENCE “We are faced with long Estimated Global Impacts • Child marriage is the likely cause of 84 percent of births distances to primary schools. of children to mothers younger than 18. Girls on their way to school • The impact of ending child marriage on maternal mortality and morbidity is not fully clear. meet men with money who • On average, three in 100 deaths among children under- entice our daughters with five are attributable to early childbirths. money for sex. Later some • On average, one in 100 stunted children under five are stunted because of early childbirths. get pregnant and drop out • Child marriage at a very early age is often associated of school. Also we have no with a higher risk of intimate partner violence. vocational school that will Sources: [4], [7], [8], [9]. train our girls after P7 and S4, so we see it as a waste of Educational Attainment and Learning Girls’ education is among the most significant factors resources to educate a girl.” associated with age at marriage, with an extensive evidence QUALITATIVE DATA COLLECTED BY ICRW base documenting both how child marriage leads to lower AND THE WORLD BANK. levels of schooling and how staying in school can play an important role in delaying marriage. Girls often face gender- Page 6 · ECONOMIC IMPACTS OF CHILD MARRIAGE: GLOBAL SYNTHESIS BRIEF June 2017 Figure 3: Impact of Child Marriage on Likelihood of Secondary School Completion (Vs Marrying at 18 or As shown in Figure 3, the younger that girls marry, the Women’s Labor Force Participation stronger the negative effect on educational attainment. This relationship is true in every region examined in this study, with and Earnings The relationship between child marriage and labor force the largest effects in the Latin American and Caribbean and participation is complex. On the one hand, lower educational South Asian regions, where secondary school completion rates attainment among women who marry as children may reduce are generally higher. Conversely, continuing schooling helps their likelihood of entering the labor market and adversely to reduce child marriage, as girls who are in school are less affect the type of jobs they engage in. On the other, many likely to marry. Our analyses show that each additional year a women living in poverty must work for the household to girl completes in secondary school reduces the likelihood of survive. Further, although child marriage may not necessarily marrying as a child by six percentage points on average, with have a direct impact on women’s labor force participation, the a similar impact on the likelihood or having a first child before higher fertility associated with child marriage may influence age 18 [11]. women’s roles in the labor market and the number of hours they are able to work. Frequent interruptions to employment Finally, educational attainment has important implications due to childbirth and the time burden of care responsibilities for women’s children as well, including for their educational can also affect the types of jobs that women can engage in, prospects. We find very strong evidence of a positive forcing them into lower-paying jobs and more unstable work relationship between a mother’s education and that of situations. Child marriage can also curb women’s agency and her children [12] , confirming other analyses. Because child limit their bargaining power in their households, including marriage lowers women’s educational attainment, this possibly with regard to the decision to enter labor force. The suggests that child marriage also plays an important role in outcome of these various factors is thus likely to be context- shaping the educational outcomes of a significant number of specific and could imply either higher or lower labor force children across the world. This relationship, therefore, may participation among women who marry as children. play an important role in perpetuating a cycle of poverty and increasing vulnerability to a range of negative outcomes for the Our analyses suggest that across the 15 countries, ending child children of child brides, including child marriage. marriage would not affect labor force participation very much IMPACTS OF CHILD MARRIAGE ON [13] , but there is variation across countries. In Niger, where EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT women’s engagement in formal employment is relatively low overall, ending child marriage would result in very small Estimated Global Impacts increases in labor force participation for women. But in • Child marriage is cited as the reason for secondary Bangladesh, the impact is greater – ending child marriage school dropout for many girls across countries. would make women who would otherwise have been child • Child marriage reduces the likelihood of girls’ secondary brides 3.5 percent more likely to enter the labor force. Overall, school completion by four to six percentage points, the simulations suggest that ending child marriage could with larger impacts in regions and countries where lead to an increase in labor force participation in six of the 15 completion rates are higher. countries, and a decrease in nine. • Each year of secondary school education reduces the risk of child marriage for girls by six percentage points. Sources: [10], [11], [12]. Page 7 · ECONOMIC IMPACTS OF CHILD MARRIAGE: GLOBAL SYNTHESIS BRIEF June 2017 Participation, Decision-Making and Investments “I got married, I got a The final domain in which we intended to assess the impacts selfish husband. I have of child marriage was in regard to household and civic participation, household decision-making and investments. two children and all their IDue to data limitations, our analysis focused on decision- responsibility is upon making, land ownership, knowledge of HIV/AIDS and birth registrations. me. I work on wages day and night. How do I make To assess the impact of child marriage on women’s decision- making later in life, we constructed an index using variables my children’s future? collected by DHS. These variables pertain to women’s decision- From where do I fulfil making in regard to health care, household purchases, visits to friends and relatives, and the use of husband’s earnings; their wishes? I got lot of women’s ability to refuse to have sex with her husband or to responsibility at a small negotiate their husband’s use of a condom; whether they felt a husband was justified in beating his wife under the certain age.” circumstances; and whether they needed their husband’s permission to get medical assistance if needed. “[Girls] should read and We find that the direct impact of child marriage on women’s write. But what I consider decision-making ability is statistically significant for about a third of the countries in the study [15]. While these results do as a priority is marriage. not suggest a large direct effect of child marriage on women’s At 16 years of age, the decision-making ability (which in many countries is relatively limited regardless of age at marriage), our analyses do suggest place of a woman is in the home with her husband and children. If she starts “No, I cannot decide. I cannot to work she will abandon decide on my children’s her family” education and regarding my QUALITATIVE DATA COLLECTED BY ICRW family… We have to move AND THE WORLD BANK. according to the husband. He is the master. We don’t have However, because of its impact on educational attainment, ending child marriage would generate substantial gains in any rights. All the decisions earnings for women on average. The foregone earnings due about the home, family, to child marriage tend to be large in all 15 countries [14]. This, when combined with larger household sizes due to higher studies of the children are fertility, would have implications for household welfare, as taken by him.” measured through consumption per capita, poverty, or food security. “A boy from our community IMPACTS OF CHILD MARRIAGE ON WORK, showed up and asked for my EARNINGS, AND WELFARE Estimated Global Impacts daughter’s hand... I asked • Ending child marriage does not typically have large if she was interested in the effects on women’s labour force participation. marriage and if she loved the • Through education, child marriage reduces women’s earnings in adulthood by 9%. boy. She was too shy to speak • Ending child marriage could increase national earnings and wouldn’t say a word… by an average of 1%. • Child marriage affects household consumption and After about three days my poverty through larger household sizes and lower second wife reported to me educational attainment for girls who marry early and their children. that my daughter agreed to marry.” Sources: [13], [14]. QUALITATIVE DATA COLLECTED BY ICRW AND THE WORLD BANK. Page 8 · ECONOMIC IMPACTS OF CHILD MARRIAGE: GLOBAL SYNTHESIS BRIEF June 2017 Figure 4: Impact of Educational Attainment on Decision-Making Index, Secondary Education Compared to No Education that there may be indirect ways that this relationship may operate. In particular, there is a strong relationship between THE COSTS OF CHILD MARRIAGE educational attainment, which is in turn is influenced by child marriage, and decision-making. The magnitude of this effect While providing a monetary valuation of all the costs is quite large, especially for secondary education, as Figure associated with child marriage is not feasible, we estimate 4 demonstrates. Thus, through curtailing girls’ educational the costs for some of the largest impacts resulting from the attainment, child marriage is very likely to reduce women’s practice, using the analyses presented above as the basis. decision-making ability significantly later in life. It should be We estimate either the costs that result from child marriage noted however that only a minority of the girls marrying early or, alternatively, the benefits that would be reaped through would have been able to complete a higher level of education, ending the practice. We focus on the costs incurred through so those indirect effects would not be observed across the the effect of child marriage on fertility and population growth, board. children’s health, and education and earnings, as these are the areas where the largest impacts were observed. We estimated In terms of the other outcomes examined for this domain, both the immediate gains that would result from ending child child marriage is associated in most countries with an increase marriage and those accruing by 2030, allowing us to account in the likelihood of land ownership [16] , but is not directly for some of the cumulative effect of many of the costs or associated with lower knowledge about HIV/AIDS [17] or a benefits over time. We only take into account a limited range of lower probability that children will be registered at birth. In impacts and costs, but the impacts we consider are those likely the case of the latter two outcomes [18] , both may well be to have the largest economic costs. A number of assumptions indirectly influenced again through the reduced educational are made in calculating these costs, including in some cases attainment of child brides. discount rates. Overall, the estimates provide only an order of magnitude of the size of costs rather than precise estimates – they may well overestimate or underestimate true costs. IMPACTS OF CHILD MARRIAGE ON DECISION- MAKING AND OTHER IMPACTS For some of the impacts, we provide global cost estimates Estimated Global Impacts over time, taking into account data for many countries. Our • Child marriage may affect women’s decision-making analyses demonstrate that the economic benefits of ending ability directly, as well as through education. child marriage are very significant. The largest of these • Child marriage is associated with an increase in the benefits results from the impact that child marriage has on likelihood of land ownership. fertility and population growth. Because child marriage is • Child marriage is not associated with a reduction in associated with higher overall fertility, its elimination would women’s knowledge of HIV/AIDS in adulthood. lower population growth rates, particularly in countries where • Child marriage is not associated with a reduction in the a child marriage is prevalent. This, is turn, has the effect of rate of birth registrations for young children. increasing per capita GDP, as resources would be distributed among a smaller pool of people than would be the case if child Sources: [15], [16], [17], [18]. marriage continued at current levels. The potential annual benefits would be very large. If child marriage had ended in 2015, the estimated benefit by 2030 globally could be on the Page 9 · ECONOMIC IMPACTS OF CHILD MARRIAGE: GLOBAL SYNTHESIS BRIEF June 2017 order of $566 billion globally (in purchasing power terms). The ORDER OF MAGNITUDE OF THE BENEFITS FROM distributional effects of these benefits would be quite positive, ENDING CHILD MARRIAGE – SELECTED GLOBAL disproportionately reaching poorer households and countries. ESTIMATES Our analyses suggest that the annual welfare gains from Annual Benefit Annual Benefit ending child marriage in Niger alone could reach $1.7 billion in 2015 in 2030 in the year 2030, solely from the effect of reducing fertility. In Welfare benefit from $22 billion $566 billion Ethiopia, the equivalent benefit would be even larger at $4.8 reduced population billion, while in Nepal this would be almost $1 billion. growth Ending child marriage would not reduce national rates of Benefit from reduced $42 billion $82 billion under-five mortality and stunting dramatically, but a large under-five mortality number of children would nevertheless survive at least until Benefit from reduced $9 billion $16 billion their fifth birthday and many more would avoid stunting. under-five stunting The benefits from saved lives and children not being stunted Sources: [19], [20]. Note: Estimates in purchasing power parity. are obviously not primarily monetary, but with all necessary caveats, monetary values can be associated with both avoiding child mortality and stunting. Globally, the estimated annual benefits from ending under-five mortality and stunting would be up to $98 billion by 2030. CONCLUSION For other costs, we restrict our analysis to countries for The analyses undertaken in this study provide strong which we have done detailed analysis. We considered first evidence that child marriage has a wide range of negative lost earnings associated with child marriage, in large part due impacts on the wellbeing of girls, their households and to women’s lower educational attainment. For the 15 core countries. While the primary motivation for ending child counties considered in the analysis, taking the year 2015 as marriage should remain the alleviation of suffering and an example, we estimate that losses in earnings due to past life prospects of girls who marry early, it is clear that child marriages would be on the order of $26 billion [14]. In the practice imposes very significant economic costs Bangladesh for example, ending child marriage could have at all levels ranging from the individual to the national. generated close to $4.8 billion annually in additional earnings These cost estimates are only orders of magnitude and productivity. In Nigeria, the annual cost of child marriage given the many assumptions involved, and they are as a result of lost earnings and productivity would have been therefore tentative in nature, but they are sufficiently roughly $7.6 billion large to suggest that ending child marriage should be a key component of poverty alleviation and development Finally, budget savings can be reaped from the lower strategies. Ending child marriage would also have a population growth that would result from ending child wide range of benefits to countries through improving marriage. We find that the governments of 18 of the countries the status of women and potentially interrupting – many of which are among the most affected by child intergenerational cycles of poverty and disadvantage. marriage - could save up to $17 billion per year by 2030 just Our hope is that the demonstration of these costs will from the savings related to providing public education [21]. help to generate greater and more focused investments to end child marriage, allowing countries to more fully The overall impacts at the country level are large. In Niger, reap the potential benefits from the demographic the country with the highest prevalence of child marriage in dividend, maximize the potential of their citizens, and the world, for example, eliminating child marriage in 2015 improve wellbeing for all. would have led by the year 2030 to annual benefits of up to $1.7 billion in additional welfare, $327 million in savings to While this study does not explicitly focus on interventions the education budget, $34 million through reduced infant and policies to prevent child marriage, the results provide mortality, and $8 million through reduced child stunting. In very strong support for the promotion of girls’ education, addition, earnings today are $188 million below what they which protects girls from marriage while providing them could have been without child marriage, and these losses with the tools to lead healthier, more productive and would be even bigger over time if child marriages continue. empowered lives. A number of promising interventions Altogether, failing to end child marriage would cost the country are being implemented in all of the countries included billions of dollars. in this study, each of which have the potential to add to our understanding of what works in terms of ending In sum, the scale of potential economic benefits that would child marriage. Investing in more of these interventions, accrue from ending child marriage is high. We estimate that documenting their impacts and implementing policies child marriage could cost the global economy trillions of dollars and programs aimed at empowering youth, and between now and 2030. In some countries, eliminating child particularly girls, will be key to ensuring a better future marriage could result in gains that are fairly large relative to for both girls and countries as a whole. the size of their economies, especially where child marriage remains common. Page 10 · ECONOMIC IMPACTS OF CHILD MARRIAGE: GLOBAL SYNTHESIS BRIEF June 2017 REFERENCES [1] Parsons, J., J. Edmeades, A. Kes, S. Petroni, M. Sexton, and Q. Wodon (2015). Economic Impacts of Child Marriage: A Review of the Literature, The Review of Faith & International Affairs, 13:3, 12-22. [2] Wodon, Q. (2017). Estimating the Economic Impacts and Costs of Child Marriage Globally: Methodology and Estimates. Education Global Practice. Washington, DC: The World Bank. [3] Onagoruwa. A. O. and Q. Wodon (2017). Impact of Child Marriage on Total Fertility across Multiple Countries. Education Global Practice. Washington, DC: The World Bank. [4] Wodon, Q., C. Male, and A. Onagoruwa (2017). A Simple Approach to Measuring the Share of Early Childbirths Likely Due to Child Marriage in Developing Countries. Education Global Practice. Washington, DC: The World Bank. [5] Onagoruwa. A. O. and Q. Wodon (2017). Impact of Child Marriage on Modern Contraception use across Multiple Countries. Education Global Practice. Washington, DC: The World Bank. [6] Wodon, Q., and A. Yedan (2017). Impact of Child Marriage and Early Childbirths on Population Growth across Multiple Countries. Education Global Practice. Washington, DC: The World Bank. [7] Onagoruwa. A. O. and Q. Wodon (2017). Impact of Early childbirth on Under-five Mortality across Multiple Countries. Education Global Practice. Washington, DC: The World Bank. [8] Onagoruwa. A. O. and Q. Wodon (2017). Impact of Early childbirth on Under-five Malnutrition across Multiple Countries. Education Global Practice. Washington, DC: The World Bank. [9] Savadogo, A. and Q. Wodon (2017). Impact of Child Marriage on Intimate Partner Violence across Multiple Countries. Education Global Practice. Washington, DC: The World Bank. [10] Nguyen, M. C., and Q. Wodon (2017). Impact of Child Marriage on Educational Attainment: Summary Findings for sub-Saharan Africa, Latin America and the Caribbean, and South Asia. Education Global Practice. Washington, DC: The World Bank. [11] Wodon, Q., and A. Yedan (2017). Impact of Educational Attainment on Child Marriage and Early Childbirths: Estimates for 15 Countries. Education Global Practice. Washington, DC: The World Bank. [12] Wodon, Q., and A. Yedan (2017). Intergenerational Effects of Child marriage on the Education of Children. Education Global Practice. Washington, DC: The World Bank. [13] Savadogo. A. and Q. Wodon (2017). Impact of Child Marriage on Women’s Labor Force Participation across Multiple Countries. Education Global Practice. Washington, DC: The World Bank. [14] Savadogo. A. and Q. Wodon (2017). Impact of Child Marriage on Women’s Earnings across Multiple Countries. Education Global Practice. Washington, DC: The World Bank. [15] Onagoruwa. A. O. and Q. Wodon (2017). Impact of Child Marriage on Women’s Decision-Making Ability across Multiple Countries. Education Global Practice. Washington, DC: The World Bank. [16] Savadogo, A. and Q. Wodon (2017). Impact of Child Marriage on Land Ownership across Multiple Countries. Education Global Practice. Washington, DC: The World Bank. [17] Onagoruwa. A. O. and Q. Wodon (2017). Impact of Child Marriage on Women’s Knowledge of HIV-AIDS across Multiple Countries. Education Global Practice. Washington, DC: The World Bank. [18] Onagoruwa. A. O. and Q. Wodon (2017). Impact of Child Marriage on the Registration of Children at Birth across Multiple Countries. Education Global Practice. Washington, DC: The World Bank. [19] Wodon, Q. (2017). Global Welfare Cost of Child Marriage Due to Population Growth. Education Global Practice. Washington, DC: The World Bank. [20] Wodon, Q. (2017). Global Cost of Under-five Mortality and Malnutrition Due to Child Marriage. Education Global Practice. Washington, DC: The World Bank. [21] Wodon, Q. (2017). Education Budget Savings from Lower Population Growth When Ending Child Marriage and Early Childbirths: Estimates for Multiple Countries. Education Global Practice. Washington, DC: The World Bank. The Economic Impacts of Child Marriage project is a collaborative published or otherwise used for noncommercial purposes without effort by the International Center for Research on Women (ICRW) permission from the World Bank or ICRW. However, the World Bank and the World Bank, with funding from the Bill & Melinda Gates and ICRW request that this brief be cited as the source. Foundation and the Children’s Investment Fund Foundation, and additional support from the Global Partnership for Education. Recommended citation for this brief: Wodon, Q., Male, C., Nayihouba, Selected products from the study are available at A., Onagoruwa, A. Savadogo, A., Yedan, A., Edmeades, J., Kes, A., John, www.costsofchildmarriage.org  The findings, interpretations N., Murithi, L., Steinhaus, M. and Petroni, S. (2017). Economic Impacts of and conclusions expressed in this brief are entirely those of the Child Marriage: Global Synthesis Brief. Washington, DC: The World Bank author(s) and should not be attributed in any manner to the World and International Center for Research on Women. Bank, to its affiliated organizations or to members of its Board of Executive Directors or the countries they represent. The World © 2017 The International Bank for Reconstruction and Development / Bank does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this The World Bank and the International Center for Research on Women (ICRW), work. Information contained in this brief may be freely reproduced, Washington, DC 20433. Page 11 · ECONOMIC IMPACTS OF CHILD MARRIAGE: GLOBAL SYNTHESIS BRIEF June 2017