SAINT LUCIA Hurricanes and Earthquakes RISK PROFILE What is a country disaster risk profile? An estimation of the potential economic losses to property caused Snapshot by adverse natural hazards.  Inform disaster risk financing The hurricane risk Country Disaster Develop key baseline data in Saint Lucia is more Risk Profile Evaluate impact of disasters significant than the Applications Promote and inform risk reduction earthquake risk. Annual Average Loss (AAL) Country At-A-Glance from hurricanes is US$ GDP US$ Population Total Building Exposure US$ (Replacement Value) 9.5M (0.7% of GDP) 1.4 billion 180,000 3.0 billion and from earthquakes is Population Urban 18% Gross Capital Stock Public 28% US$ 2.6M (0.2% of GDP). Rural 82% Private 72% The Probable Maximum Loss for hurricanes (250 year return period) is Two representations of hurricane risk US$ 382M (27.2% of GDP) and for AAL (in millions US$) earthquakes (250 year 3.1-5.0 return period) is US$ 1.1-3.0 0-1.0 148M (10.5% of Provinces by ratio (AAL/Province Exposure) GDP). lowest ratio nnnnn highest ratio Single family, wood stud- Absolute Risk: The larger the circle, the higher the wall frame with plywood/ Annual Average Losses that the province could potentially incur over the long term. gypsum board sheathing Relative Risk: The darker the color, the higher the are the buildings most ratio of AAL/Province Exposure. The darkest color represents the province of Dennery which has a vulnerable to hurricanes, higher proportion of vulnerable structures due to construction types and/or potentially higher hurricane intensity. accounting for 30% of AAL. SAINT LUCIA What is at risk? Building Exposure Economic assets such as residential and non- (in percentage of total) residential buildings are at risk. These assets n 0.4 - 5.0 n 5.1 - 10.0 that are exposed to natural disasters are n 10.1 - 20.0 referred to as a country’s Building Exposure. n 20.1 - 50.0 (no province in this range) n 50.1 - 54.0 The map provides the value of residential and non-residential buildings in each province at risk from hurricanes and earthquakes. Loss / TEV (%) 0.0 1.7 3.3 5.0 6.7 8.4 250 8.4 What have been the historical losses? Historical Losses - Millions (US$) 200 6.7 Saint Lucia has suffered significant losses from Historic Losses (M-USD 2016) Allen (1980) hurricanes. The direct losses have been modeled to Loss / TEV (%) 150 5.0 a high degree of accuracy in the risk profile. In 1980, Hurricane Allen struck Saint Lucia. If this historical ` 100 3.3 event were to happen in 2016, it would cause a loss of US$ 188M, amounting to 13.4% of GDP. 50 1.7 Abby (1960) Tomas (2010) The chart shows the direct actual and modeled losses due to 0 Dean (2007) 0.0 historical events. 0 50 100 150 200 250 Modeled Losses (M-USD 2016) Modeled Losses - Millions (US$) What are the potential future losses? 600.00 600 The chart shows the estimated potential future losses in Saint Lucia that could be caused by hurricanes and earthquakes for 500.00 500 a given return period. (US$) 400.00 400 Millions (US$) Millions 300.00 300 Hurricane 200.00 200 Allen This is the first step of quantification of 100.00 100 contingent liability. Next steps include determining its impact on budgetary - 0 Historical Historical 50 50 100 100 250 Return period in years 250 500 500 1000 1,000 appropriation, which would directly inform the Return Estimated Losses due to HURRICANES period in years Estimated Losses due to EARTHQUAKES development of the disaster risk financing n Estimated Losses Due to HURRICANES n Estimated Losses Due to EARTHQUAKES strategy. To learn more, visit: collaboration.worldbank.org/groups/cdrp or email cdrp@worldbank.org In collaboration with Financed by SAINT LUCIA © 2016 International Bank for Reconstruction and Development / The World Bank 1818 H Street NW Washington DC 20433 Telephone: 202-473-1000 Internet: www.worldbank.org This work is a product of the staff of The World Bank with external contributions. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this work do not necessarily reflect the views of The World Bank, its Board of Executive Directors, or the governments they represent. 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