g]kfn /fi6«ut cfly{s kl/b[Zo pRr cf/f]x0fM dWocfo d'n'stkm{sf] lbzfdf g]kfn /fi6«ut cfly{s kl/b[Zo pRr cf/f]x0fM dWocfo d'n'stkm{sf] lbzfdf d] @)!& + ljZj a}s a[xt\ cfly{s Pjd\ ljQLo Joj:yfkg ljZjJofkL cEof; (Macroeconomics and Fiscal Management Global Practice) blIf0f Pl;of If]q g]kfn ;/sf/sf] cfly{s jif{ ;fpg ! b]lv c;f/ d;fGt -h'nfO{ !^–h'nfO{ !%_ d'bf| ;dtf -d]O !*, @)!& sfod ljlgdo/ b/_ d'bf| OsfO{ M g]kfnL ?k}ofF cd]l/sL 8n/ ! = g]? !)@.%% pkfWoIf M Pg]6 l8S;g { s M g]kfn lgb]z lrdofcf] kmfg g]kfn Joj:yfks M 6fs'of sdftf If]qut Joj:yfks M Dofg'Pnf k|mflG;:sf] ;x6f]nL g]tfx? M 8fld/ sf]l;s / dfs{; ls6\Hd'n/ s[t1tf ' g bfxfn / dfs{; ls6\Hd'n/ g]tT of] k|ltj]bg 8fld/ rf]l;r\, ;'BD ' L, bLks ld> / [ jsf] 6f]nLåf/f z'ed\ rf}w/ Dofg'Pnf k|mflG;:sf]sf] Joj:yfkg Pjd\ 6fs'of sfdftfsf] ;du| dfu{lgb]z { gdf tof/ kfl/Psf] xf] . of] k|ltj]bgdf w]/h { Psf] 5 . /f]zgbz{g jh|frfo{n] g]kfnsf] } gf dxfg'efjn] dxTjk"0f{ of]ubfg ug'e Oltxf; / ljsf;sf afwfx?af/] dxÎjk"0f{ cGtb{l[ i6 dfq lbg'ePg, of] k|ltj]bg tof/ kfbf{sf] ;a} txdf dxÎjk"0f{ dfu{lgb]z { g klg lbg'eof] . l/zj l;Gxfn] bL3{sfnLg cfly{s j[l4 ‘df]8l] nª’ ug{ ;3fpg'eof] . t'cfg ldGx lnn] g]kfnsf] ;fj{hlgs nufgL Joj:yfkg k|0ffnLsf] ljZn]if0fdf of]ubfg lbg'eof] . cfzLif gf/fo0f / uf]Ghfnf] e/]nfn] Jofkf/;Da4 ljifodf Jofks of]ubfg lbg'eof] . l8gf] d]/f]6f]n] Joj;fo -kmd{_ x?sf] ultljlw / >lds dfu cfk"lt{sf] ;fy} hg;f+lVos k|jl[ Qx?sf] ljZn]if0fdf ;xof]u lbg'eof] . lbgf/ wDd lk|xlb{gL / slNeg Hof]kmfsn] ;Ifdtfk"js { u0fgfof]Uo ;fdfGo ;dlaGb' (computable general equilibrium – ;LhLO{_ df]8l] nª ug'eof] . lsdflgef]g lkmDdf;fo / ;f]ldg's bfjflbªn] hn;|ft ] sf] tYof+s ;+sng / ljZn]if0fdf d2t ug'eof] . s[lif;DaGwL v08 ;Dk"0f{tM ‘g]kfn M ;f];; ] Plu|sNr/ km/ kf]e6L{ l/8S6;g P08 z]o8{ {] ckm u|fy + k|ltj]bg, @)!^ af6 lnOPsf] xf] . of] k|ltj]bg Plno6 jfDaf]sf D3]gL k|:k]l/6L’ zLif{ssf] ljZj a}s g]tT[ jsf] 6f]nLn] ljZj a}ssf] ‘Plu|sNr/ Unf]an k|flS6;’ n] tof/ kf/]sf] xf] . Hofl:dg\ /fhe08f/L / b':oGy /fh'n] lzIff Pjd\ o'jf >dahf/sf af/]df ;xof]uL ;fdu|Lx? k|bfg ug'e { of] . k'iknfn zfSo / ho]Gb| >]i7n] qmdzM ;fj{hlgs nufgL Joj:yfkg / pmhf{af/] If]qut dfu{lgb]z { g / ;xof]u lbg'eof] . /fhLj pkfWofo / Crf e§/fO{n] ldl8of l/n];g / l8l;ldg];gdf ;xof]u ug'e { of] . 8fog :6fdn] c+uh ]| L k|ltj]bg ;Dkfbg ug'e { of] . o;}u/L, cRo't jfUn]n] o;sf] g]kfnL ?kfGt/0f tyf /fh]Gb| k/fh'nLn] o;sf] ;Dkfbg ug'e { of] . ;'lgtf ofbjn] sfo{;~rfng / Joj:yfkg ;xof]u lbg'eof] . dfOsn lhu/, df]gf k|;fb, g/axfb'/ yfkf -sfo{sf/L lgb]z + _, :6«fxg :k]G;/ -cfly{s { s, g]kfn /fi6« a}s ;Nnfxsf/, ;+oQ' m clw/fHosf] cGt/f{li6«o ljsf; ljefu–8LPkmcfO{8L_, :j0fL{d jfUn] -;b:o, /fli6«o of]hgf cfof]u_n] ljåt\ ;dLIfssf ?kdf ;]jf ug'e { of] . lqmlZrog Oh]g–h'rL, dfl6{g /fdf, kfAnf] ]« / z}nz uf]6t ] ltjf/Ln] ;xof]uL l6Kk0fL tyf ;Nnfx lbg'eof] . + sf ;xsdL{x? a]g' labfgL, lj1fg k|wfg, lx/f]sL pPdfT;', cf}/l] ng qm';, /ljg >]i7, ;f}/e ljZj a}s /fgf / lblnk k/fh'nLn] k|ltj]bgnfO{ yk kl/is[t ug{ ;xof]u ug'e { of]  . of] k|ltj]bg tof/Lsf qmddf g]kfn ;/sf/sf clwsf/Lx?;Fu ePsf] ;/;Nnfxsf nflu of] sfo{6f]nL s[t1 5 . ljz]iftM + . cGoyf, plNnlvt gfdx? ljZj nufgL af]8{ / g]kfn ljB't\ k|flws/0fsf] ;xof]usf nflu s[t1 5f}  + df sfo{/t JolStsf] xf] . a}s ' m clw/fHosf] cGt/f{li6«o ljsf; ljefun] k|bfg u/]sf] pbf/ cfly{s ;xof]un] of] k|ltj]bg ;+oQ agfpg ul/Psf cg';GwfgfTds ultljlwx?nfO{ ;xh agfof] . pRr cf/f]x0fM dWocfo d'n'stkm{sf] lbzfdf u iii 5f]6s/L ?k jf ;+If]k0f la|S; (BRICS) a|flhn, /l;of, ef/t, rLg, blIf0f clk|msf (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa) ;LhLO{ (CGE) u0fgfof]Uo ;fdfGo ;dlaGb' (Computable General Equilibrium) 8LPkmcfO{8L (DFID) ;+oQ ' m clw/fHosf] cGt/f{li6«o ljsf; ljefu (Department of International Development) PkmPcf] (FAO) ljZj vfB ;+u7g (Food and Agriculture Organization) cfj (FY) cfly{s jif{ (Fiscal Year) s'ufp (GDP) s'n ufx{:Yo pTkfbg (Gross Domestic Product) ] s6 lkmN6/ (Hodrick-Prescott Filter) PrkL lkmN6/ (HP Filter) xf]l8«s–k|; d]jf (MW) d]ufjf6 (Mega Watt) g]? (NPR) g]kfnL ?k}ofF (Nepali Rupees) kL8LP (PDA) cfof]hgf ljsf; ;Demf}tf (Project Development Agreement) kLcfO{Pd (PIM) ;fj{hlgs nufgL Joj:yfkg (Public Investment Management) kLkLkL (PPP) t'ngfTds vl/b Ifdtf (Power Purchasing Parity) { f/ (REER) cf/O{Oc jf:tljs k|efjL ljlgdo b/ (Real Effective Exchange Rate) P;kLP; (SPS) ;/;kmfO / pTkfbg :jR5tf dfgs (Sanitary and Phytosanitary Standards) 6LPkmkL (TFP) s'n j:t' pTkfbsTj (Total Factor Productivity) 8ANo'8LcfO{ (WDI) ljZj ljsf; ;"rsf+s (World Development Indicators) pRr cf/f]x0fM dWocfo d'n'stkm{sf] lbzfdf 3 iv ljifo;"rL s[t1tf================================================================================================================================================================== u 5f]6s/L ?k jf ;+If]k0f============================================================================================================================================= 3 ;f/;+If]k=============================================================================================================================================================== em s= ul/aL lgjf/0fdf cu|0fL, t/ cfly{s j[l4df k5f}6=] =======================================================================================================! v= oyfl:ylt g t lbuf] xf], g t ck]lIft============================================================================================================================ % cfly{s j[l4 lsg lg/Gt/ ?kdf Go"g 5 <====================================================================================================================== & ;dsfnLg cfly{s Oltxf;n] sdhf]/ ;+:yfx? / gfh's gLltut 5gf]6nfO{ sf/s b]vfPsf 5g\=================================================* cfly{s j[l4sf] ljZn]if0fn] h8jt\ r'gf}tLtkm{ ;+st] u5{=================================================================================================== !) c:jfefljs cfly{s ?kfGt/0fn] d'ns ' sf] ljsf; ck]Iffx?nfO{ s'l07t u/]sf] 5====================================================================!! \ sf nflu Jojl:yt x:tIf]ksf] cfjZostf 5===================================================================================== !# g]kfnsf] b'irqm tf]8g u= yk nufgL / ;'wfl/Psf] pTkfbsTjnfO{ ;xhLs/0f ug{ c8\rgx? tf]l8g'k5{========================================================================!& k|lts"n cj:yf / gfh's gLltut 5gf]6n] Go"g nufgL tyf sdhf]/ pTkfbsTjnfO{ ;3fPsf] 5================================================!& a[xQ/ nufgLsf nflu ;fj{hlgs / lghL b'j} If]qsf afwfx? km'sfpg'k5{=========================================================================== !* c= ;fj{hlgs nufgL k|lqmofdf ;'wf/========================================================================================================================== !* cf= a[xQ/ lghL nufgLsf] cfk|jfx============================================================================================================================= @) yk pTkfbsTj j[l4sf nflu afwfx? x6fpg cfjZos 5=============================================================================================== @) { L cled'vLs/0f / afx\o k|lt:kwf{==================================================================================================================@@ c= alxd'v cf= cy{tGqsf b'j} kIf, cfGtl/s / j}bl] zs k|lt:kwL{ Ifdtf sdhf]/ 5============================================================================= @$ ] x?sf] lgdf{0f=========================================================================================================================== @& 3= cfly{s j[l4sf gofF ;|ft hnpmhf{df ;Defljt nufgLsf If]qx?sf] klxrfg========================================================================================================= @* ;f9] @^ ca{ cd]l/sL 8n/sf] k|Zg– hnljB'td \ f x'g] nufgLn] s] nfe lbg ;Snf <============================================================== @( ª= cfly{s j[l4sf ljBdfg ;|ft ] 0ff====================================================================================================================#% ] x?nfO{ pTk|/ g]kfnsf] cy{tGqsf nflu dxÎjk"0f{ dflgPsf] s[lifIf]q Go"g nufgL / Go"g pTkfbsTjdf hsl8Psf] 5=========================================#% s[lif pTkfbsTjsf] j[l4nfO{ cj?4 ug]{ d'Vo tÎjx?======================================================================================================#& a[xt\ cfwf/sf] cfly{s pTkfbsTj j[l4sf nflu Pp6f PsLs[t /fli6«o sfo{qmd cfjZos 5=====================================================#( pRr cf/f]x0fM dWocfo d'n'stkm{sf] lbzfdf ª v r= hgtfdf nufgL====================================================================================================================================================== $# g]kfnsf] ;jn / lbuf] cfly{s ljsf;sf] nflu dfgj k"h F L a[l4 u/L pTkfbg k|of]hgdf Nofpg' dxÎjk"0f{ 5=============================== $# g]kfn o'jf hgzlQm pef/sf] r/0fdf k|jz ] u/]sf] 5– of] hg;f+lVos nfesf] cj;/ xf]========================================================$$ pHHjn cfly{s ;Defjgfx?sf nflu dfgj k"h F L k|uf9Ls/0f ug'{ cfwf/e"t zt{ xf]============================================================== $& cg';r" L======================================================================================================================================================================$( g]kfnsf] ;fj{hlgs nufgL Joj:yfkgsf sdhf]/Lx?sf] ljZn]if0f=====================================================================================$( ;Gbe{ ;fdu|L=============================================================================================================================================================== %@ sf]i7x? sf]i7 s ! M ;g\ @)!%sf b'an { Ls/0f ug]{ em6\sfx?n] ljsf;nfO{ cem} k5fl8 ws]Nof]============================================================ @ sf]i7 v ! M 7"nf ljkt\sf k|efjaf/] Jofjxfl/s cg';Gwfg================================================================================================ & sf]i7 3 ! M ljljw gLltut ljsNkx?sf] cfly{s c;/ ljZn]if0f M sDKo'6a] n hg/n OlSjlnla|od -u0fgfof]Uo ;fdfGo ;dlaGb'_ cjwf/0ff=======@( lrq -cfFs8f_ lrq O{P; ! M g]kfnsf] Go"g cfo–pRr cfk|jf;g w/fk====================================================================================================== ` lrq O{P; @ M /fhgLlts b'irqm==================================================================================================================================== 6 lrq s ! M g]kfnn] ul/aL lgjf/0fsf] nflu k|z; + f / sdhf]/ cfly{s j[l4sf] ckhz b'j} kfPsf] 5=============================================! lrq s @ M blIf0f Pl;ofdf ul/aL Go"gLs/0fsf] ult========================================================================================================# lrq s # M blIf0f Pl;ofnL d'ns ' x?sf] cfly{s j[l4========================================================================================================# lrq s $ M s'n ufx{:Yo pTkfbg -s'ufp_df ljk|i ] f0fsf] c+z===============================================================================================# lrq s % M k|ltJolQm ljk|i ] f0f cfo===============================================================================================================================# lrq v ! M g]kfnsf] Go"g cfo–pRr cfk|jf;g w/fk====================================================================================================== ^ lrq v @ M g]kfndf cfly{s j[l4sf] cfly{s Oltxf;, ;g\ !(&) b]lv ;g\ @)!%===================================================================* lrq v # M hg;+Vof / k|ltJolQm s'ufp j[l4, ;g\ !(&) b]lv ;g\ @)!%=========================================================================== ( lrq v $ M d"No clej[l4df of]ubfg, If]qut b[li6n]===================================================================================================== !) lrq v % M s'ufp j[l4df of]ubfg, vr{sf b[li6n] ======================================================================================================== !! lrq v ^ M s'ufp j[l4df of]ubfg, pTkfbg ;fwgsf b[li6n] ===========================================================================================!! lrq v & M pTkfbsTj j[l4======================================================================================================================================!@ lrq v * M dfgj k"h F L j[l4=====================================================================================================================================!@ lrq v ( M nufgL / s'ufp cg'kft==========================================================================================================================!@ lrq v !) M s'n /fli6«o cfo k|ltJolQm j[l4b/ -;'wf/ gePsf] cj:yf_=============================================================================== !# lrq v !! M Go"g cfo d'ns ' af6 :t/f]Ggltsf nflu nufgL cfjZos================================================================================== !# lrq v !@ M blIf0f Pl;of If]qdf nufgL b/================================================================================================================== !# lrq v !# M ;'wf/ kl/b[Zosf dfGotfx?==================================================================================================================== !$ lrq v !$ M s'n /fli6«o cfo k|ltJolQm j[l4b/ -;'wf/ kl/b[Zo_======================================================================================== !$ lrq v !% M /fhgLlts b'irqm===================================================================================================================================!% lrq u ! M cf};t txsf] ;fj{hlgs nufgL, ;g\ @))&–@)!%======================================================================================= !* lrq u @ M cf};t clej[l4d'vL k'h F L pknlAw cg'kft, ;g\ @))!–@))&========================================================================== !* lrq u # M cf};t txsf] lghL nufgL, ;g\ @))&–@)!%===============================================================================================@! lrq u $ M ;a} Joj;fox? /fhgLlts cl:y/tfn] uDeL/?kn] k|efljt ePsf 5g\==============================================================@! lrq u % M g]kfndf pTkfbsTjsf] Oltxf;, ;g\ !(&)–@)!%==========================================================================================@! lrq u ^ M g]kfnsf] s/–eG;f/ b/ pRrdWo] k5{=========================================================================================================@# lrq u & M ;g\ @))^ otf jf:tljs k|efjL ljlgdo b/ pNn]Vo ?kn] a9]sf] 5================================================================@# pRr cf/f]x0fM dWocfo d'n'stkm{sf] lbzfdf r vi lrq ª ! M blIf0f Pl;ofdf wfgsf] pTkfbsTj=============================================================================================================#^ lrq ª @ M blIf0f Pl;ofdf ux'sF f] pTkfbsTj==============================================================================================================#^ lrq ª # M s[lifsf] pTkfsbTj==================================================================================================================================#& lrq ª $ M s[lif pTkfbgx?sf] v'b lgof{t d"No===========================================================================================================#& lrq r ! M If]qut b[li6n] /f]huf/Lsf] c+z, ;g\ !(((–@)!#==========================================================================================$$ lrq r @ M If]qut b[li6df k|lt sfdbf/ d"No clej[l4, ;g\ @))!–@)!#==========================================================================$$ lrq r # M cfk|jf;g b/n] >d ahf/df leqg] b/nfO{ pl5g]sf] 5==================================================================================$% lrq r $ M ax';V + os cfk|jf;Lx? #% jif{eGbf sd pd]/sf 5g\=====================================================================================$% lrq r % M blIf0f Pl;ofdf hg;+Vof j[l4==================================================================================================================$% lrq r ^ M g]kfnsf] cfo' lge{/tf cg'kft==================================================================================================================$% lrq r & M kfFr jif]{ pd]/ ;d"xsf cfwf/df g]kfnsf] hg;+Vof, ;g\ @)!%======================================================================== $^ lrq r * M kfFr jif]{ pd]/ ;d"xsf cfwf/df g]kfnsf] hg;+Vof, k|If]lkt, ;g\ @)%)============================================================ $^ 6]anx?sf] ;"rL ' cfly{s j[l4 ul//x]sf d'ns 6]an u ! M b|t ' sf gLltx?df ljBdfg % ;femf cjoj=============================================================!& 6]an u @ M g]kfndf cfof]hgf k"/f x'g w]/} nfdf] ;do nfU5===========================================================================================!( 6]an u # M ljljw d'ns ' sf] ;fj{hlgs nufgL Joj:yfkg sfo{kb | z{gL================================================================================!( 6]an 3 ! M hn;|ft ] If]qdf klxrfg ePsf ;Defljt nufgLx?, ;g\ @)!&–@)#)============================================================== @* 6]an 3 @ M hn;|ft ] If]qdf ;Defljt nufgLsf nflu klxrfg ePsf cfly{s ;|ft ] , ;g\ @)!&–@)#)======================================= @( 6]an 3 # M a[xt\ cfly{s kl/b[Zosf] cfwf/ /]vf, ;g\ @)!&–@)#)=================================================================================== #) 6]an 3 $ M hn;|ft ] nufgL a[xt\ cfly{s kl/b[Zo, ;g\ @)!&–@)#)================================================================================ #) 6]an 3 % M hn;|ft ] df nufgL, pTkfbsTj / cfk|jf;Laf6 cfpg] k|ltkmnsf cfwf/df a[xt\ cfly{s kl/b[Zo, ;g\ @)!&–@)#)==============#) 6]an 3 ^ M hn;|ft] df ePsf] nufgLn] ;g\ @)#) df g]kfndf b]lvg] k|efj -cfwf/ /]vfaf6 k|ltzt ljrng_============================#@ 6]an ª ! M cfj ;g\ @))$ / cfj ;g\ @)!! aLrdf s[lif afnL cfodf cfPsf] kl/jt{gsf] ljZn]if0f, k|ltzt===========================#^ 6]an ª @ M cfj ;g\ @))$ / cfj ;g\ @)!! aLr k|ljlw kl/jt{g / k|fljlws k|efjsfl/tfn] pTkfbsTjdf k'¥ofPsf] ;fk]If of]ubfg -OG8]S;, @))$ = !_========================================================================================================= #* pRr cf/f]x0fM dWocfo d'n'stkm{sf] lbzfdf 5 vii ;f/;+If]k jt{dfg g]kfnsf] ljsf; cEof; lj/f]wfef;x?n] el/Psf] 5 . ;+;f/sf w]/} d'ns ' x?n] tLj| cfly{s j[l4 xfl;n u/] klg ul/aL Go"gLs/0fdf ;fdfGo dfq} k|ult u/]sf 5g\ . lsgls, cfo wgLx?sf] xftdf dfq y'lk|g] k|jl[ Q a9\bf] 5 . t/, g]kfnsf] eg] ljk/Lt ;d:of 5 . o;sf] cfly{s j[l4b/ ;fdfGo 5, t/ ul/aL Go"gLs/0f b|t ' ultdf ePsf] 5 . d'ns ' n] ul/aL b/nfO{ ;ft}jif{df cfwfdf emf/]sf] 5 / cfodf b]lvg] c;dfgtfnfO{ klg plQs} pNn]Vo 9+un] 36fPsf] 5 . tyflk, g]kfn Pl;ofs} ;aeGbf ul/a / ;':t j[l4 eO/x]sf cy{tGqdWo]df /x]sf] 5 . g]kfnsf] k|ltJolQm cfo cfkm\gf If]qLo ;dsIfLx?eGbf b't | ultdf k5fl8 kb}5 {  . h;sf] sf/0f, cfkm\gf] nfdf] ;dob]lvsf] Go"g cfosf] cj:yfaf6 :t/f]Gglt ug]{ dxÎjfsf+Iff xfl;n ug{ cIfd ePsf] 5 . ljsf;sf z'?jftL cj:yfx? g} k|lts"n /xg'sf] cy{ g]kfnsf] ljsf;sf] dfu{ ;xh x'g] 5}g eGg] ;j{ljlbt g} xf]. klxnf], P]ltxfl;s / k|sl[ tk|bQ cjl:yltn] g} g]kfnsf] ljsf;nfO{ r'gf}tLk"0f{ agfPsf] 5 . d'ns ' sf] e"uf]n— afÅo?kdf e"kl/j]li6t / cfGtl/s?kdf r'gf}tLk"0f{ e"–agf]6—n] o;sf] ljsf; ljBdfg k|fs[lts c8\rgnfO{ k|i6\ofpF5 . g]kfnsf] Oltxf;sf zf]if0flnKt /fhgLlts zf;g;Qfn] cToGt} Go"g txsf] ef}lts / dfgj k"h F Lsf] cj:yfdf d'ns ' nfO{ 5f]l8lbP . ;g\ !(%! ;Dd klg oxfFsf] lg/If/tf () k|ltzt lyof] . bf];f| ,] k|fs[lts ljklQx?, ev{/,} ;g\ @)!% sf ljgfzsf/L e"sDknufotn] h:t} ef}lts ;DklQ gi6 ug]{ / em08}em08} cl3 a9\g} d'l:sn kg]{ cj:yfdf k'¥ofpg] lgolt klg a]xf]gk {' /]sf] 5 . t];f| ,] g]kfn ct'ngLo 9+un] ef/t / o;sf] cfly{s ljsf;sf] ult;Fu, v/fa jf c;n h] eP klg, pbf+uf] /x]sf] 5 . rf}yf], ljut b'O{ bzssf] nfdf] cjlwdf d'ns ' n] /fhgLlts ;+qmd0f– /fh;+:yfaf6 ax'bnLo k|hftGq, ;z:q åGå / ;/sf/sf] af/Daf/ kl/jt{g– a]xf]/s ] f] 5 . cyf{t\ ;du|df, g]kfnn] cfkm\gf] ljsf;sf] dfu{df w]/} afwfx?sf] ;fdgf u/]sf] 5 . klxNo} r'gf}tLk"0f{ /x]sf ljsf;sf c8\rgx? c;xof]uL gLltut 5gf]6sf sf/0f yk hl6n ePsf 5g\ . ljut $% jif{sf] g]kfnsf] cfly{s Oltxf;n] xfdLnfO{ s]xL dxÎjk"0f{ kf7x? lbPsf] 5 . g]kfnL cy{tGqsf] jt{dfg kl/0fltn] ljsf;sf r'gf}tLk"0f{ afwfx?nfO{ dfq { , clkt' cy{tGqsf] 7"nf] lx:;f cf]u6\g] s[lif If]qsf] sfo{kb k|ltlalDat ub}g | z{gLnfO{ sdhf]/ agfpg], ;fj{hlgs nufgL / k"h F L ;+sngnfO{ Go"g kfg]{ tyf pTkfbsTj j[l4nfO{ g} 36fpg] lsl;dsf gLltut 5gf]6sf] kl/0ffd klg bzf{p5 F  . ljut $% jif{df -;g\ !(&) b]lv ;g\ @)!$;Dd_ g]kfnsf] cf};t jflif{s cfly{s j[l4b/ $ k|ltzt /Åof] . hals, of] cjlwdf k|ltJolQm cfo s]jn cf};t @ k|ltztn] dfq a9]/ blIf0f Pl;ofd} ;aeGbf sd /Åof] . of] k[i7e"lddf, vf;u/L åGåkl5sf] cjlwdf d'n's 5f]8g [ Q -cfk|jf;g_] a9\g' \ ] k|jl cfZro{hgs xf]Og . cfly{s jif{ -cfj_ ;g\ !((^ df rf/df Ps 3/kl/jf/n] s'g} k|sf/sf] ] f0f -/]ld6\ofG;_ k|fKt uYof]  ljk|i { . cfj ;g\ @))$ ;Dddf tLgdWo] Ps kl/jf/ / cfj ;g\ @)!! pRr cf/f]x0fM dWocfo d'n'stkm{sf] lbzfdf em ix ;Dddf b'Od { Wo] ! kl/jf/ o:tf] ljk|i ] f0f kfpg]df kg{ yfn] . a9L ePsf] 5  . tyflk, 7"nf] ;+Vofsf] cfk|jf;g Pjd\ To;};u F hf]l8P/ ;+Vofsf 3/kl/jf/n] ljk|i ] f0f cfo k|fKt ug{ dfq yfn]gg\, o:tf] cfpg] ljk|i ] f0fn] k|lt:kwL{ IfdtfnfO{ qmdzM Ifof]Gd'v agfpg of]ubfg ljk|i] f0faf6 cfpg] /sddf klg ljutsf jif{x?df j[l4 eof] . ;g\ u/]sf] 5 -jf:tljs ljlgdo b/ j[l4dfk{mt\_ eg] Go"g pTkfbsTjo'Qm @))) sf] bzssf] cfwfcfwLdf ljk|i ] f0f cfodf pNn]Vo j[l4 eof] . ;]jf If]qsf] j[l4nfO{ a9fPsf] 5 . yk, oL k|jl[ Qx?n] :jb]zd} cfj ;g\ @))) df s'n ufx{:Yo pTkfbg -s'ufp_sf] @ k|ltzt a9L pTkfbgzLn /f]huf/L l;h{gf ug'k { g]{ bafanfO{ 36fPsf] 5 . /x]sf] ljk|i ] f0f cfo cfj ;g\ @))% df !% k|ltzt / cfj @)!) kl/0ffd:j?k, of] rqmn] g]kfnsf ljBdfg / bL3{sfnLg r'gf}tLnfO{ df @@ k|ltzt x'b F } cfj ;g\ @)!^ df cy{tGqsf] #) k|ltzt k'Uof] . yk hl6n agfPsf] 5, h;n] g]kfnsf] k|lt:kwL{ Ifdtf x|f; u5{, cfly{s j[l4nfO{ yk sdhf]/ agfpF5 / :jb]zleqsf cj;/nfO{ c;/ o;n] !) nfveGbf a9L hg;+Vof x'g] d'ns ' x?dWo] g]kfnnfO{ kfg{ e"ldsf v]ns ] f] 5 . oL ;a} sf/0fx?nfO{ ;d]6b \ fsf] cy{ s] nfU5 bf];f| ] 7"nf] ljk|i] f0f kfpg] d'ns ' agfof] . ljk|i ] f0fdf ePsf] pNn]Vo eg] g]kfn, h'g ;+;f/sf ;aeGbf pBdzLn / ;fx;L dflg;x? a:g] j[l4 g]kfnsf] hLjg:t/df cfPsf] ;'wf/sf] k5fl8 k|fylds sf/s ' x'b d'ns F } klg, Go"g cfly{s j[l4 / pRr cfk|jf;gsf] ;xlaGb'df F fx'b ePh:tf] b]lvG5 . o:tf] ;'wf/ k|ToIf -ljk|i ] f0f k|fKt ug]{ kl/jf/sf]_ / cfufdL sof}+ jif{;Dd c8\ls/xg ;S5 -lrq– O{P; !_ . ck|ToIf -ljb]z guO{ a;]sf] >dzlQmsf] j[l4 ePsf] Hofnf cfDbfgL_ b'j} tl/sfn] ePsf] 5 . 7"nf] dfqfdf x'g] cfk|jf;gsf] ;DejtM ;aeGbf xflgsf/s kIf eg]s,} gLlt lgdf{tfx?nfO{ yk hjfkmb]xL / kl/0ffdd'vL ul/aL Go"gLs/0f ;kmn / b'|tultdf eP klg g]kfnsf] x'g] bafaaf6 o;n] d'Qm u5{ . 7"nf] dfqfsf] cfk|jf;gn] g]kfnsf ljsf; df]8]nnfO{ tTsfn kl/jt{g ug'k { g]{ cfjZostf 5. w]/} j6f ;d:of ;dfwfg u/]sf] 5 . o;n] a]/f]huf/L b/nfO{ 36fPsf] 7"nf] ;+Vofdf -ljb]ztk{m_ x'g] cfk|jf;g ;antfsf] ;+st ] xf]Og . 5 . yk pkef]u ug{ ;Ifd agfPsf] 5 . /, s/ ;+sngnfO{ a9fPsf] a?, ulx/f] / bL3{ ;d:ofsf] nIf0f xf] . ljk|i] f0f hgtfnfO{ ul/aLdf 5 . s/sf] pRr lge{/tf cfoftdf cfwfl/t z'Ns ePsfn] klg km:gaf6 hf]ufpg] ;'/Iff sjr t ePsf] 5, t/ of] /sd b't | s/ ;+sng a9]sf] xf] -o;n] clxn] ;Dk"0f{ /fh:jsf] cfwf lx:;f cfly{s j[l4 / cj;/ lj:tf/df k|of]u x'g ;s]sf] 5}g . 7"nf] ;+Vofsf] cf]u6\5_ . ;fy;fy}, o;n] /fhgLlts ju{nfO{ cfkm\gf] lxtsf nlu cfk|jf;gn] b|t ' ultdf / sltko cj:yfdf :yfoL?kn] d'ns ' sf] ] ] bafa 36fpF5 . af/Daf/ x'g] ;/sf/sf] ;+/If0f lbg] k/Dk/fnfO{ tf]8g dfgj k"h F LnfO{ 36fpg e"ldsf v]ns ] f] 5 . ljk|i] f0fn] kl/jf/x?sf] kl/jt{g nfdf] ;dob]lv :yflkt :jfefljs dfgs h:t} ePsf] 5 . vr{ IfdtfnfO{ a9fPsf] 5, t/ pgLx?sf] ;fj{hlgs ;]jfk|bfonfO{ d'ns ' df ljut @^ jif{otf clxn] @@ k6s ;/sf/ km]l/;s]sf 5g\ . ;'wf/ ug{ eg] ;xof]u ul//x]sf] 5}g . oL ljleGg sf/0fx?n], lzIff, o:tf] /fhgLlts cl:y/tfn] d'ns ' sf] ljsf;nfO{ afwf kf/]sf] 5 / :jf:Yo ;]jf, k"jf{wf/ cflbsf] u'0f:t/sf] ;'wf/df d2t k'us ] f] 5}g . gful/sdf lje|d k}bf ul/lbsf] 5 . oL ;a}sf sf/0f cfk|jf;gnfO{ yk of]ubfg ul//x]sf] 5g\ -lrq OP; @_ . yk, clxn]sf] ljsf;sf] ultn] g]kfnnfO{ cfkm" lylrP/ /x]sf] Go"g cfly{s j[l4sf] vf8naf6 plDsg ;3fO/x]sf] 5}g . nfdf] ;dob]lv ljBdfg r'gf}tLx?nfO{ ;Daf]wg ug{sf nflu P]ltxfl;s?kn] g} Go"g /x]sf] cfly{s j[l4sf sf/0f :jb]zd} /f]huf/Lsf Jofks k|sl [ tsf ;'wf/ cfjZos 5g\ / o:tf] ;'wf/lagf cj;/x?sf] cefjsf] cj:yf l;h{gf u/]sf] 5 . /, o;n] cfk|jf;g g]kfn ;DejtM ;g\ @)#) cl3 Go"g dWod cfo d'ns ' aGg -d'ns' af6 aflxl/g]_sf] k|jfxnfO{ a9fPsf] 5 . >dsf] o:tf] cfk|jf;gn] ;Sb}g . ;Defljt s'ufp j[l4b/ lgwf{/0f ug{sf nflu clxn]s} k|ltJolQm cfo / s'ufpsf] t'ngfdf 7"nf] dfqfdf ljk|i ] f0f cfk|jfx kl/b[Zox?nfO{ cfwf/ dfg]/ xfdLn] d'Vo ‘e]l/PaN;’– nufgL–s'ufp lrq O{P; ! M g]kfnsf] Go"g cfo–pRr cfk|jf;g w/fk sdhf]/ cfly{s j[l4 / /f]huf/Lsf ;Lldt cj;/x? Go"g k|lt:kwL{ Ifdtf afx\o cfk|jf;g / 7"nf] dfqfsf] ljk|]if0f ;'zf;g÷ sfof{Gjog e"–agf]6÷ bogLo ;Lk÷ z}lIfs pRr l/h{e];g Hofbnfb/ / jf:tljs k|ltnlAw k"jf{wf/ Ifdtf ljlgdo b/sf] clwd"Nog ;|f]t M ljZj a}+s sd{rf/L pRr cf/f]x0fM dWocfo d'n'stkm{sf] lbzfdf ` x lrq O{P; @ M /fhgLlts b'irqm dt r'gfj vr{ / ;+/IfsTj cfk|jf;g gful/s /fhgLlt1 Joj;fo ;Lldt ;fj{hlgs ;]jf ;/sf/L s/f/, ;+/If0f / ;:tf] / /f]huf/Ldf kx'Fr ;fj{hlgs ;|f]tsf] pknAwtf ;|f]t M ljZj a}+s sd{rf/L, /fhg -;g\ @)!$ df cfwfl/t_ . gf]6 M ;+s]t lrx\gx?sf] df]6fOn] ;DaGwsf] cfsf/nfO{ k|ltljlDat u5{ . k|ltzt, dfgj k"h F Lsf] j[l4, pTkfbsTjsf] j[l4– clbnfO{ xfn}sf tyf ljb]lzg] cfk|jf;gsf] ultnfO{ cf+lzs?kn] pN6\ofpg] P]ltxfl;s cf};tx? / ;+oQ + sf] hg;+Vof k|If]k0fnfO{ ldnfg ' m /fi6«;3 tyf tNnf]t6Lo If]qsf pBf]ux?sf] k|lt:kwL{ Ifdtf j[l4 u/L x]/s + . kl/0ffd:j?k ;Defljt j[l4b/sf] k|jl[ Q, clxn]sf] $ ] f 5f}  u/fpg] ;DefJotf klg af]ss ] f] 5 . -cWofo ‘rf/’ x]gx \ {' f];_ k|ltztaf6 36]/ # k|ltzt x'g] b]lvG5 . cfly{s j[l4sf] of] k|jl[ Qut #= cfly{s j[l4sf ljBdfg ;|ft ] x?nfO{ k'gMhfu[t ug]  { M yk b/df ;g\ @)#) df k|ltJolQm cfo cd]l/sL 8n/ ( ;o %* ul/aL lgjf/0f ug{, pTkfbsTjdf ;'wf/ ug{ / >dzlQmnfO{ k'Ug]5 . clxn], k|ltJolQm cfo cd]l/sL 8n/ ! xhf/ @% eGbf a9L ] x?df pkof]u ug{sf nflu s'ufpsf] cfly{s j[l4sf gofF ;|ft ePsf b]znfO{ dfq ljZj a}s + n] Go"g–dWod cfo d'ns ' sf ?kdf PsltxfO / >dzlQmsf] b'Ol{ txfO c+z cf]u6\g] s[lif If]qsf] kl/eflift u/]sf] 5 . tyflk, ;'wfl/Psf] kl/b[Zodf, pbfx/0fsf nflu, ;'wf/ dxÎjk"0f{ 5 . -cWofo ‘kfFr’ x]gx \ {' f];_ nufgL / pTkfbsTj b'j} ;g\ @)@! ;Dd a9]/ l:y/ ePsf] v08df $= hgtfdf nufgL ug]  { M g]kfn hg;f+lVos ?kfGt/0f cfly{s j[l4b/ a9]/ $=# k|ltzt k'lu Go"g cfo d'ns ' af6 ;g\ @)@& (demographic transition) sf] r/0fdf 5 . Go"g k|hgg b/sf] df :t/f]Gglt x'g ;Sg]5 . kl/0ffd:j?k clxn] sfd ug]{ pd]/sf] hg;+Vofsf] lx:;f sfd gug]{ pd]/sf] hg;+Vofsf] lx:;feGbf 7"nf] 5 . hg;f+lVos nfe kl/0ffd:j?k, of] b'irqmnfO{ eTsfpg / d'n'sleq (demographic dividend) eg]sf] oxL xf] . of] hg;f+lVos nfeaf6 /f]huf/L l;h{gf Pjd\ >d lgof{taLr plrt ;Gt'ng sfod kmfObf p7fpgsf nflu g]kfnL o'jfsf] ;Lk ljsf;df nufgL ug{ Pp6f Jojl:yt x:tIf]k cfjZos 5. g]kfnnfO{ Go"g ug'{ ckl/xfo{ 5 . eljiosf nflu ;an / lbuf] cfly{s j[l4sf] cfo–pRr cfk|jf;gsf] w/fkdf /fVg] tyf :jtM ;anLs[t x'b F} dfu{ klxNofpgsf nflu yk dfgj k"h F L g]kfnsf] pTkfbgzLn uPsf] of] cfofdnfO{ s]xL l56k'm6 / ;LdfGt x:tIf]kn] dfq tf]8g \ k|of]udf nufpg' cfjZos 5 . -cWofo ‘5’ x]gx \ {' f];_ ;Dej 5}g . To;}n] g]kfnsf nflu Pp6f ;dli6ut cjwf/0ff rflxPsf] 5, h;n] lgDgfg';f/sf sfo{x? u/]/ nufgL a9fpg] / ;fx;L / Jofks ;'wf/x? nfu" u/]sf] s'/f g]kfnsf] Oltxf;n] pTkfbsTjnfO{ b't| agfpg] b'j} sfddf d2t ug]5 { M xfdLnfO{ k9fPsf] 5 / km]l/ klg o;} ug{ ;lsG5 . ;g\ !(*^ != gLltut c8\rgx? x6fpg] M  Go"g nufgL / sdhf]/ pTkfbsTj;Fu / ;g\ !((^ sf] aLrdf g]kfnn] a[xt\ ;'wf/x?nfO{ ;+:yfut u¥of], ;DalGwt r'gf}tLx?nfO{ ;Daf]wg ug{ g]kfnn] ;fj{hlgs nufgL h;sf] cy{tGqdf ;sf/fTds k|efj k¥of] . of] cjlwdf cfly{s j[l4 + rgf ug{,' oftfoft Joj:yfkg sfo{qmdnfO{ pNn]vgLo 9+un] k'g;{/ cf};t % k|ltzt eof], h'g g]kfnsf] cfw'lgs Oltxf;df ;aeGbf / b"/;~rf/h:tf If]qsf cfGtl/s ahf/sf] k|lt:kwf{nfO{ ;3g kfg{,' pRr b/ xf] . oxL cjlwdf k|ltJolQm cfo klg @=$ k|ltztn] j[l4 Joj;fo ug]{ nfut 36fpg' / cy{tGqnfO{ afFsL ljZj;Fu qmdzM eof] . cy{tGq a9L v'nf / ljljwLs/0f eof] . s'ufpdf Jofkf/ / PsLs[t ug{' cfjZos 5 . -cWofo ‘tLg’ x]gx \ { ' f];_ lgof{t Pjd\ cf}Bf]lus pTkfbgsf] c+z bf]Aa/ eof] . oL ;'wf/x?nfO{ ] x?sf] lgdf{0f ug]{ M  hnljB'td @= cfly{s j[l4sf gofF ;|ft \ f 7"nf /fhgLltsf] nf]stflGqs/0ftk{msf] ?kfGt/0f / lgjf{lrt ;/sf/n] nufgLx? leqfofpg' g]kfnsf nflu efUo kl/jt{gsf] cj;/ ;Dej agfPsf lyP . o;n] hgtfnfO{ gofF p2]Zo k|l] /t ePsf] x'g ;Sg]5 . o;n] 7"nf] dfqfsf] gofF nufgL / pTkfbsTjdf cg'el" t klg u/fof] . cfh tL b[i6fGtn] g]kfndf ;fx;L / r'gf}tLk"0f{ ;'wf/ dfq Nofpg] 5}g, Hofnfb/nfO{ pNn]Vo?kn] psf:g] ;'wf/x? jf:tjdf g} ;Dej ePsf] s'/f 68\sf/f] :d/0f u/fpF5g\ . pRr cf/f]x0fM dWocfo d'n'stkm{sf] lbzfdf 6 xi pRr cf/f]x0fM dWocfo d'n'stkm{sf] lbzfdf XII cWofo Ps ul/aL lgjf/0fdf cu|0fL, t/ cfly{s j[l4df k5f}6] != g]kfnsf] ljsf;sf] ultsf k|z; + s / cfnf]rs b'j} 5g\\. xfn}sf bzsx?df d'ns ' n] pNn]Vo dfqfsf] ul/aL Go"gLs/0f / cfo c;dfgtfdf sdL ePsf] kl/b[Zo k|:t't u/]sf] 5 . g]kfnsf] a]/f]huf/L b/ ;fk]IftM Go"g 5 / >dzlQmdf dlxnf ;xeflutf ;an 5 . of] blIf0f Pl;ofnL If]qd} b'ne{ pbfx/0f xf] . ljZj cfly{s d~r ;g\ @)!& sf] ;dfj]zL ljsf; ;"rsf+sdf g]kfn ljsf;zLn d'ns ' x?dWo] @&cf}+ :yfgdf 5 . of] :yfg la|S; ;d"xsf d'ns ' x? h:t}– a|flhn, ef/t, blIf0f clk|msf -Kofgn P, lrq s !_ eGbf klg lgs} cufl8 xf] . tyflk, g]kfn cem} klg Pl;ofdf ;a}eGbf ul/a / cToGt ;':t ultdf cfly{s j[l4 eO/x]sf cy{tGqx?dWo] Ps xf] . o;sf] k|ltJolQm cfo cfkm\gf If]qLo ;dsIfLx?eGbf b|t ' ultdf k5fl8 kl//x]sf] 5 lrq s ! M g]kfnn] ul/aL lgjf/0fsf] nflu k|z+;f / sdhf]/ cfly{s j[l4sf] ckh; b'j} kfPsf] 5 Kofgn P Kofgn aL ;dfj]zL ljsf; ;"rsf+s cf};t jf:tljs s'ufp j[l4b/ -7"nf] c+sn] a9L ;dfj]lztf hgfp“5_ -;g\ @))) b]lv @)!%_, k|ltztdf rLg sDaf]l8of nfcf]; ef/t rLg leotgfd aª\nfb]z >Ln+sf leotgfd g]kfn aª\nfb]z ljsf;zLn b]zx? -cf};t_ >Ln+sf sDaf]l8of g]kfn nfcf]; ef/t ) ! @ # $ % –% ) % !) !% ;|f]t M ljZj cfly{s d~r (World Economic Forum) ;|f]t M ljZj ljsf; ;"rsf+s (World Development Indicators) pRr cf/f]x0fM dWocfo d'n'stkm{sf] lbzfdf 1 -Kofgn aL, lrq s !_ . cem s]xL ko{jI ] fsx?, d'ns' b't | ultdf k|ltzt /Åof] . hals, of] cjlwdf k|ltJolQm cfo s]jn cf};t @ sdhf]/ /fHo (fragile state) aGg nfu]sf]df lrlGtt 5g\ eg] c? k|ltztn] dfq a9]/ blIf0f Pl;ofd} ;aeGbf sd /Åof] -lrq s s]xL g]kfn Go"g nufgL / Go"g cfly{s j[l4 ;dlaGb'sf] w/fkdf #_ . xfn}sf jif{x?df g]kfnsf] cy{tGq o; If]qsf c? tLg j6f km:nf eGg] eodf 5g\ . e"kl/j]li6t d'ns' ckmuflg:tfg, e'6fg, hgu0ftGq nfcf];eGbf klg l9nf] ultdf j[l4 eO/x]sf] 5 . of] ;z:q åGå / cft+sjfbaf6 @= ;+/rgfut sl7gfOx? ;d]tnfO{ ljrf/ ubf{, d'n'ssf] uDeL/?kn] k|efljt b'O{ d'ns' >Ln+sf / kfls:tfgsf] ;dfg cyjf ul/aL lgjf/0fdf ePsf] lg/Gt/sf] k|ult emg\ k|efjsf/L 5 . cem ;':t ultdf j[l4 eO/x]sf] 5 . pNn]Vo?kn] ul/a / ev{/; } Dd g]kfnsf] e"uf]n– afÅo?kn] e"kl/j]li6t / cfGtl/s?kn] r'gf}tLk"0f{ cGt/f{li6«o?kn] PlSnPsf] Dofgdf/ h:tf] d'ns ' n] klg xfn}sf e"agf]6– ljsf;sf nflu k|fs[lts afws /x]sf] 5 . of] cj:yfnfO{ jif{x?df g]kfnsf] eGbf bf]Aa/ cfly{s j[l4b/ xfl;n ul//x]sf] 5 . ;g\ @)!% sf b'Oj { 6f ljgf;sf/L e"sDk -sf]i7 s !_ nufotsf ;du| cfly{s sfo{kb| z{gLsf b[li6n] g]kfnn] cfkm\gf] IfdtfeGbf lgs} z[v+ nfa4 k|fs[lts ljklQx?n] emg\ v/fa agfPsf] 5 . ljutdf g} sd dfq pknlAw xfl;n ug{ ;s]sf] 5 . d'ns ' n] b'Ob{ zs nfdf] cjlwsf] /fhgLlts ;+qmd0f– /fh;+:yfaf6 ax'bnLo k|hftGq, ;z:q åGå / cl:y/ ;/sf/– a]xf]/s ] f] 5 . o:tf] $= g]kfnsf] ljsf;sf c;fdfGo pknlAwx?nfO{ d'Vo u/L k[i7e"lddf klg g]kfnn] w]/j } 6f ;x;|fAbL ljsf; nIo ;do;Ldf o;sf] pRr ljk|]if0f cfk|jfxn] k|i6\ofpg ;S5. ;+;f/sf w]/} cufj} xfl;n u¥of] / ax'cfoflds ul/aL ;"rsf+sdf klg lg/Gt/ d'ns' x?n] tLj| cfly{s j[l4 cg'ej u/] klg cfDbfgL wgLx?sf sdL Nofof] . cfj ;g\ @)!! sf] hLjg:t/ ;j]I { f0fn] g]kfnsf] xftdf dfq s]lGb|t x'g] k|jl[ Q a9]sfn] ul/aL lgjf/0f ;fdfGo b/df pkef]udf cfwfl/t ul/aL @%=@ k|ltzt /x]sf] b]vfPsf] lyof] . dfq ePsf] 5 . t/, g]kfnsf] ;d:of o;sf] ljk/Lt 5— cfly{s cfly{s jif{ ;g\ !((^ / ;g\ @)!! sf] aLrdf j}olQms u0fgfdf j[l4b/ ;fdfGo 5 t/, ul/aL lgjf/0f b't | ultn] ePsf] 5 . of] 7"nf] cfwfl/t ul/aL b/ (head count poverty rate) jflif{s cf};t @=@ kl/df0fdf x'g] dfgj k"h F Lsf] lgof{t / :jb]z k7fOPsf] k};fsf k|ltzt k|ltjif{sf b/n] 36\of], h'g If]qLo?kd} ul/aL Go"gLs/0fsf] sf/0f ;Dej ePsf] xf] . cfly{s jif{ ;g\ !((^ df sl/a rf/df ;aeGbf b't | ultdWo]df kb{5 -lrq s @_ . Ps 3/kl/jf/n] s'g} k|sf/sf] ljk|i { . cfly{s jif{ ] f0f k|fKt uYof]  ;g\ @))$ ;Dddf tLgdWo] Ps kl/jf/ / cfly{s jif{ ;g\ @)!! #= tyflk, ;+;f/s} ;aeGbf tLj|ultsf] cfly{s j[l4 xfl;n ;Dddf b'Od { Wo] Ps kl/jf/ o:tf] ljk|i ] f0f kfpg]df kg{ yfn] -ljZj ul//x]sf d'n'sx?sf] l5d]sdf /x]sf]n] g]kfnsf] ;':t + , @)!^P_ . kl/0ffd:j?k, pkef]u ljt/0f (consumption a}s cfly{s j[l4b/ :jLsfo{ eg] x'g ;Sb}g. ljut $% jif{df distribution) sf] x/]s If]qdf ljk|i ] f0f cfosf] k|of]udf tLj| j[l4 -;g\ !(&) b]lv ;g\ @)!$ ;Dd_ /fli6«o cfo j[l4b/ cf};t $ eof] . a9L ;+Vofsf 3/kl/jf/n] ljk|i ] f0f cfo k|fKt dfq ug{ sf]i7 s=! M ;g\ @)!%sf b'a{nLs/0f ug]{ em6\sfx?n] ljsf;nfO{ cem} k5fl8 ws]Nof] ;g\ @)!% sf] ^ dlxgfsf] cjlwdf g]kfnnfO{ @ j6f k|dv ' em6\sfx?n] oL em6\sfx?sf] kl/0ffd:j?k, g]kfnsf] ;Defljt cfly{s j[l4b/ k|xf/ u¥of] . klxnf] o:tf] em6sf\ clk|n @)!% sf] e"sDk / To;kl5 :yfoL?kdf g} Go"g x'g] ;Defjgf a9]sf] 5 . cfly{s ljsf;sf :yflkt cfPsf $ ;oeGbf a9L k/sDkx? lyP, h;n] 7"nf] dfqfdf hgwgsf] l;4fGtx?sf cg';f/ olb d'ns ' sf] ;l~rt k"h“ LnfO{ k|fs[lts ljklQx?n] Iflt u¥of] . e"sDkn] ef}lts ljgf; dfq} u/]g, ul/aL Go"gLs/0fsf] pRr gi6 u¥of] eg] pTkfbg ;DefJotf ;Ldf (production possibility frontier) b/nfO{ klg uDeL/?kn] k|efljt u¥of] . n3' k|lt?k -simulations_ agfP/ leqlt/ ;5{, h;n] s'n k|ltJolQm pTkfbsTjnfO{ Go"g u/fp“5 . ul/Psf] ljZn]if0f cg';f/ e"sDkn] yk & nfvb]lv !) nfv g]kfnLnfO{ To;kl5 x'g] yk nufgLn] Ifo ePsf] ;l~rt k"h “ Lsf] dfqfnfO{ kl/k"lt{ ;g\ @)!% / @)!^ cfly{s jif{x?df ul/aLtkm{ ws]ns ] f] cg'dfg 5 . u5{ / ljsf;sf] :jfefljs ultnfO{ k'/fgf] txdf kmsf{p5 “  . cfly{s j[l4b/sf ;Gbe{df eg] of] l;4fGtn] cfly{s j[l4 :jfefljs k|jfxeGbf bf];|f] o:tf] em6\sf ;g\ @)!% sf] ;]K6]Da/df blIf0fL ;Ldf Jofkf/dfly sd x'g] cg'dfg u5{ / 7Ls vfnsf ;+:yfut ;+/rgfx? ePsf v08df nfu]sf] em08} k"0f{ cj/f]wsf] cj:yf lyof] . OGwg, sRrfkbfy{ / dfq j[l4b/ o:tf] k|jfxeGbf dfly k'Ug ;S5 . e"sDksf] df/ a]xf]gc {' l3 cTofjZosLo j:t'x?sf] cfk"lt{df d'n'sel/ g} b]lvPsf] r/d cefjn] g]kfnsf] ;Defljt j[l4b/ / pTkfbgaLrsf] km/s z"Gosf] glhs} lyof] . d"No cfsfl;of] / pBf]u Joj;fosf cfly{s ultljlwx?nfO{ s6f}tL o:tf] km/s cfly{s j[l4b/sf] k|jfx sl/a $ k|ltztsf] xf/fxf/Ldf u¥of] . kl/0ffd:j?k, g]kfnn] ljut !$ jif{otfs} ;aeGbf Go"g cfly{s ptf/r9fj ul//x]sf] dfGbf b]lvPsf] xf] . cy{tGqsf] ;DefJotfnfO{ j[l4b/ xfl;n u¥of] / cfly{s dGbLsf] cj:yfaf6 aNn–aNn aRg clej[l4 u/L eljiodf b|t ' cfly{s j[l4b/ xfl;n ug]{ ljifo, gi6 ePsf] ;Sof] . Jofkf/df cj/f]wsf] k|efj c:yfoL k|s[ltsf] eP klg To;n] ;l~rt k"h“ L, k'glg{df{0f ug]{ ult / k'glg{df{0fsf] u'0f:t/df lge{/ u5{ . e"sDkkl5sf] k'glg{df{0fsf] k|of;x?nfO{ cj?4 u¥of] . cfly{s ljsf;sf] tyflk, k'g:yf{kgfsf k|of;x? ck]Iffcg'?k x'g ;ls/x]sf 5}gg\ / cem qmdnfO{ pT;fxxLg agfof] / e"sDkkl5sf] k'glg{df{0f Pjd\ p2f/ sfo{nfO{ l9nf eof] eg] g]kfnsf] ;Defljt cfly{s j[l4sf] dfu{nfO{ ;g\ @)!% sf ;':t kf¥of] . 36gfx?n] :yfoL?kdf g} k|lts"n k|efj kfg{ ;Sg]5g\ . pRr cf/f]x0fM dWocfo d'n'stkm{sf] lbzfdf 2 lrq s=@ M blIf0f Pl;ofdf ul/aL Go"gLs/0fsf] ult lrq s=# M blIf0f Pl;ofnL d'n'sx?sf] cfly{s j[l4 ul/aL b/ nueu ;g\ !((% Ö !)), kLkLkL, cd]l/sL 8n/ !=( k|ltlbg_ -;"rsf+s, !(() Ö !))_ !)) ^)) g]kfn %)) a+unfb]z $*& *) ef/t $)) >Ln+sf ^) ^! blIf0f Pl;of %# #)) @($ $^ $) g]kfn -!((%–@)!)_ ## @)) a+unfb]z -!((%–@)!)_ @) ef/t -!((#–@)!!_ @@ >Ln+sf -!((%–@)!@_ !)) blIf0f Pl;of -!((^–@)!)_ ) ) !((% !((& !((( @))! @))# @))% @))& @))( @)!! @)!# !(() !((@ !(($ !((^ !((* @))) @))@ @))$ @))^ @))* @)!) @)!@ @)!$ ;|f]t M ljZj a}+s sd{rf/Lsf] u0fgf ;|f]t M ljZj ljsf; ;"rsf+s yfn]gg\, o:tf] ljk|i ] f0faf6 cfpg] /sddf klg ljutsf jif{x?df hg;+Vof x'g] ljZjsf d'ns ' x?dWo] cy{tGqsf] c+zsf cfwf/df j[l4 eof] . ljk|i ] f0fdf ePsf] pNn]Vo j[l4 g]kfnsf] hLjg:t/df u0fgf ubf{ g]kfnnfO{ bf];f| ] pRr ljk|i ] f0f kfpg] d'ns ' agfof] -lrq cfPsf] ;'wf/sf] k5fl8 k|fylds sf/s klg ePsf] cWoogx?n] s $_ . o;sf] t'ngfdf l5d]sL d'ns ' x?n] o:tf] ljk|i ] f0f cfodf b]vfPsf 5g\ . lgs} ;fdfGo j[l4b/ dfq xfl;n u/] . o;nfO{ k|ltJolQm cd]l/sL 8n/df lx;fa ubf{ ;g\ @))) df ljb]zaf6 g]kfnn] k|ltJolQm %= g]kfnsf] ljk|]if0f cfo em08} ce"tk"j{ ultdf a9]sf] 5 . % cd]l/sL 8n/ -cf};tdf_ ljk|i ] f0fsf ?kdf leq\ofpFYof] . ;g\ ;g\ !(() sf] bzs;Dd g]kfnn] k|fKt ug]{ JolQmut ljk|i ] f0f @)!$ df Tof] /sd a9]/ @ ;o % 8n/ k'Uof], h'g blIf0f Pl;ofd} s'ufpsf] ! k|ltzteGbf sd lyof] . of] a+unfb]z / ef/tsf] eGbf bf];f| ] pRr / a+unfb]zsf] -($ 8n/_eGbf em08} bf]Aa/ xf] -lrq yf]/} lyof] . ;g\ @))) sf] klxnf] cfwf bzsdf o;sf] c+zdf s %_ -ljZj a}s + , @)!^P_ . g]kfnsf] ljk|i ] f0f cfo j}bl] zs Jofks j[l4 eof] . ;g\ @))) df @ k|ltztaf6 ;g\ @))% df ;xfotfeGbf !) u'0ff a9L / s'n lgof{t cfoeGbf c9fO u'0ff !% k|ltzt x'g k'Uof] eg] ;g\ @)!) df @@ k|ltzt af6 a9]/ a9L 5 . jflif{s ljk|i ] f0f cfo em08} ;Dk"0f{ ljb]zL d'bf| ;l~rtL ;g\ @)!% df #) k|ltzt k'Uof] . o;n] ubf{ !) nfveGbf a9L hlQs} 5 . lrq s=$ M s'n ufx{:Yo pTkfbgdf ljk|]if0fsf] c+z lrq s= % M k|ltJolQm ljk|]if0f cfo -s'ufp k|ltzt_ -k|ltJolQm cd]l/sL 8n/_ #% $)) g]kfn g]kfn #) a+unfb]z #%) a+unfb]z ef/t ef/t >Ln+sf #)) @% >Ln+sf blIf0f Pl;of @%) blIf0f Pl;of @) @)) !% !%) !) !)) % %) ) ) !(() !((@ !(($ !((^ !((* @))) @))@ @))$ @))^ @))* @)!) @)!@ @)!$ @)!^ !((! !((# !((% !((& !((( @))! @))# @))% @))& @))( @)!! @)!# @)!% ;|f]t M ljZj a}+s sd{rf/Lsf] u0fgf ;|f]t M ljZj ljsf; ;"rsf+s / ljZj a}+s sd{rf/Lsf] u0fgf pRr cf/f]x0fM dWocfo d'n'stkm{sf] lbzfdf 3 pRr cf/f]x0fM dWocfo d'n'stkm{sf] lbzfdf 4 cWofo b'O{ oyfl:ylt g t lbuf] xf], g t ck]lIft ^= ul/aL Go"gLs/0f ;kmn / b|'tultdf eP klg g]kfnsf] ljsf; df]8]nnfO{ tTsfn kl/jt{g ug'{kg]{ cfjZostf 5 . 7"nf] ;+Vofdf x'g] cfk|jf;g ;antfsf] ;+st ] xf]Og . a?, ] f0f hgtfnfO{ ul/aLdf km:gaf6 arfpg] ;'/Iff sjr t ulx/f] / bL3{ ;d:ofsf] nIf0f xf] . ljk|i ePsf] 5, t/ of] /sd b't | cfly{s j[l4 / cj;/ lj:tf/df k|of]u x'g ;s]sf] 5}g . 7"nf] ;+Vofsf] cfk|jf;gn] b|t ' ultdf / sltko cj:yfdf :yfoL?kn] d'ns F LnfO{ 36fO/x]sf] 5 . ' sf] dfgj k"h ] f0fn] kl/jf/x?sf] vr{ IfdtfnfO{ a9fPsf] 5, t/ pgLx? ;]jfk|bfonfO{ ;'wf/ ug{ ;xof]u ljk|i ul//x]sf 5}gg\ . oL ljleGg sf/0fx?n] lzIff, :jf:Yo ;]jf / k"jf{wf/sf] u'0f:t/ cToGt} v/fa /x]sf] 5 . &= ljk|]if0fsf w]/} ;sf/fTds k|efj x'“bfx'“b} klg sDtLdf kf“r sf/0fn] oyfl:ylt g t lbuf], g t jf~5gLo g} x'g] cj:yf 5 . != g]kfnsf] ljsf;sf] ult aflx/sf tÎjx?åf/f rnfodfg x'g] k|jl[ Q lg/Gt/ a9\bf] 5 . P]ltxfl;s?kn] g]kfnsf] cfly{s j[l4 lgoGq0feGbf aflx/sf tÎjx?df lge{/ /xFb} cfPsf] 5 . ' 5{ . of] ztfAbL z'? eP;Fu} a9\bf] cfk|jf;gn] h:tf]– kof{Kt s[lif pTkfbgsf nflu /fd|f] jiff{ x'gk yk ljk|i ] f0f leq\ofpg e"ldsf v]ns ] f] 5, h'g clxn] s[lif If]q hlQs} 7"nf] ePsf] 5 . km]l/, ] f0f cfk|jfx klg g]kfnsf] lgoGq0feGbf aflx/sf cj:yfx?df k"0f{tM lge{/ 5 . a9\bf] ?kdf ljk|i cfTds]lGb|t x'b F } uPsf] / ljb]zL sfdbf/x?lj?4 pNn]Vo?kn] k|lts"n x'b F } uPsf] ljZjdf ljk|i] f0fdf lge{/ /xg] /0fgLlt vt/gfs xf] . oxL sf/0fn], cy{tGqnfO{ o:tf afÅo tÎj–lgM;[t hf]lvdz"Go agfpg ;xof]u ug]{ vfnsf cfly{s j[l4sf cfGtl/s pkfox?sf] cfjZostf clxn] ;aeGbf a9L dxÎjsf] b]lvG5 . ] f0fn] nfdf] ;dob]lv ljBdfg cy{tGqsf r'gf}tLnfO{ ;dfwfg @= 7"nf] dfqfsf] cfk|jf;g / ljk|i { f] ;§f yk hl6n agfO/x]sf 5g\ . ljk|i ug's ] f0fn] pkef]unfO{ (consumption) a9fPsf] 5, h;sf sf/0f Go"g pTkfbsTjo'Qm s[lifsfo{x?nfO{ oyfjt\ /fv]sf]] / Go"g ;Lksf ;]jfx?sf] j[l4 u/fPsf]5 . ;]jf If]qdf /f]huf/L a9]sfn] o;sf] :yfgfGt/Ls/0f k|efj b]lvPsf] 5 . >ldsx? s[lif If]qaf6 aflx/ lg:s]/ zx/L ;]jf If]qdf a9L kmnbfoL sfd kfO/x]sf 5g\ . tyflk, zx/L ;]jf If]qsf] klg 36\bf] pTkfbsTjsf sf/0f t'ngfTds?kn] /f]huf/L yf]/} dfq /fd|f ePsfn] pNn]Vo ?kfGt/0f ePsf] b]lvGg . o:tf] cj:yfdf, of] c:jfefljs ;+/rgfut ?kfGt/0f ;d'Rr pTkfbsTj (aggregate productivity) a9fpg afws ePsf] 5, hals o:tf] ;d'Rr pTkfbsTj g} bL3{sfndf b|t' cfly{s j[l4sf] lgwf{/s xf] . pRr cf/f]x0fM dWocfo d'n'stkm{sf] lbzfdf 5 ] f0fn] k|lt:kwL{ Ifdtf x|f; x'gd #= ljk|i ' f / /fh:j gLltx?nfO{ { f/]] t/af/h:t} xf] . lsgeg], o;n] ljlgdo b/ Hofnfb/ j[l4 b'Ow lgof{t k|lts"n agfpg of]ubfg u/]sf] 5 . ljk|i ] f0fsf sf/0f a9]sf] clwd"NognfO{ psf:g / pTkfbg nfut a9fP/ afx\o k|lt:kwL{ pkef]un] cfoftnfO{ a9fPsf] 5 / jf:tljs ljlgdo b/nfO{ (real IfdtfnfO{ Ifo ug{ ;S5 . effective exchange rate) clwd"Nog u/fPsf] 5 . ljZn]if0fx?n] /]ld6\ofG; cfodf !) k|ltztn] j[l4 x'b F f bL3{sfnLg jf:tljs { L cfk|jf;gn] cfly{s j[l4sf] %= 7"nf] dfqfdf ePsf] >dsf] alxd'v ljlgdo b/df )=% k|ltztsf] clwd"Nog x'g] b]vfPsf 5g\ OlGhgsf ?kdf sfd ug]{ zx/Ls/0fsf] ;DefJojtfnfO{ 36fPsf] -kf]ru{' n, @)!&_ . k|sf/fGt/n], jf:tljs ljlgdo b/ clwd"Nog 5 . a9\bf] zx/Ls/0fn] cfly{s ultljlwx?nfO{ zx/L If]qdf F f cfoftnfO{ yk k|fT x'b ] ;fxg / lgof{tnfO{ afwf k'U5 . ;DejtM PsLs[t u/]/ pTkfbsTjnfO{ a9fpg ;S5 . ;d"xs[t cy{tGq o;sf] c;/ Go"g d"No, Go"g gfkmf b/ ePsf pTkflbt j:t'x?df (agglomeration economies) n] vf;u/L pTkfbgzLn / ;]jf ;aeGbf w]/} k5{, h;sf] 7"nf] c+z g]kfnn] lgof{t ug]{ j:t'x?sf] If]qsf] pTkfbsTjdf ;'wf/ / /f]huf/L l;h{gfnfO{ a9fpg ;S5 . ;d"xdf 5 . cem, a9\bf] cfoft s/sf cfsif{s cfwf/x? x'g\ oL ;Defljt zlQmx? 7"nf] dfqfdf >dzlQm aflx/Psf sf/0f / ltgn] cy{tGqnfO{ cfoft s/df a9L lge{/ x'g] l:ylt k}bf bljPsf 5g\ . u5{g  \ . o;n] lgof{tlj/f]wL kIfw/tfnfO{ yk a9fpF5, lsgeg] lgof{tsx? sRrfkbfy{sf ?kdf cfofltt, dWod kl/isf/sf *= log} sf/0fx?n] g]kfn Go"g cfly{s j[l4– pRr j:t'x? (intermediate good) dfly e/ k5{g  \. cfk|jf;gsf] w/fkdf RoflkPsf] h:tf] b]lvG5. P]ltxfl;s?kn] g} Go"g /x]sf] cfly{s j[l4sf sf/0f :jb]zd} $= 7"nf] dfqfdf ePsf] >dsf] alxd'v { L cfk|jf;gn] :jb]zleq} /f]huf/Lsf cj;/x?sf] cefjsf] cj:yf l;h{gf u/]sf] 5 . { g]{ bafanfO{ 36fPsf] 5 . s'n pTkfbgzLn /f]huf/L l;hgf ug'k /, o;n] cfk|jf;g -d'n'saf6 aflxl/g]_sf] k|jfxnfO{ a9fPsf] ! s/f]8 $) nfv >dzlQmdWo] sl/a $) nfv -@* k|ltzt_ 5 . >dsf] o:tf] cfk|jf;gn] k|ltJolQm cfo / s'ufpsf] b]zaflx/ sfd ul//x]sf] cg'dfg ul/Psf] 5 . of] g]kfnsf] /fhwfgL t'ngfdf 7"nf] dfqfdf ljk|]if0f cfk|jfx ePsf] 5 . tyflk, 7"nf] / ;aeGbf 7"nf] zx/ sf7df8f}s + f] ;Dk"0f{ hg;+Vofsf] bf]Aa/ xf] . ;+Vofsf] cfk|jf;g Pjd\ To;};Fu hf]l8P/ cfpg] ljk|]if0fn] ;g\ @))& df åGå cGTo ePotf d'ns ' sf] >dzlQmdf k|ltjif{ k|lt:kwL{ IfdtfnfO{ qmdzM Ifof]Gd'v agfpg of]ubfg u/]sf] cf};t # nfv #) xhf/ hgf ylkPsf 5g\ . t/, d'ns ' aflx/ x'g] 5 -jf:tljs ljlgdo b/ j[l4dfk{mt\_ / Go"g pTkfbsTjo'Qm cfk|jf;gn] of] b/nfO{ pl5g]sf] 5 . cf};tdf of] cjlwdf jflif{s ;]jf If]qsf] j[l4nfO{ a9fPsf] 5 . yk, oL k|j[lQn] :jb]zd} a9L # nfv &% xhf/ dflg;x? d'ns ' aflx/ uPsf] clen]v 5 . pTkfbgzLn /f]huf/L l;h{gf ug'{kg]{ bafanfO{ 36fPsf] 5 . of] o;n] ubf{ d'ns' leq} >d cfk"lt{df tLj|ultdf sdL cfPsf] 5 . rqmn] g]kfnsf ljBdfg / bL3{sfnLg r'gf}tLx?nfO{ yk hl6n o;sf cltl/Qm, ljk|i ] f0f o:tf] /sd kfpg] kl/jf/x?df k'm;{bsf] agfpF5 h;n] g]kfnsf] k|lt:kwL{ Ifdtf x|f; u5{, cfly{s ;do a9fpg] / sfd ug]{ ;do 36fpg] sf/s ag]sf] 5 . o;n] j[l4nfO{ yk sdhf]/ agfpF5, :jb]zleqsf cj;/x?nfO{ ubf{ >d cfk"lt{ cem 36]sf] / Go'gtd Hofnf a9]sf] 5 . jf:tljs ;Lldt kf5{ . oL ;a} sf/0fnfO{ ;d]6\bfsf] cy{ s] nfU5 eg] lrq v ! M g]kfnsf] Go"g cfo–pRr cfk|jf;g w/fk sdhf]/ cfly{s j[l4 / /f]huf/Lsf ;Lldt cj;/x? Go"g k|lt:kwL{ Ifdtf afx\o cfk|jf;g / 7"nf] dfqfsf] ljk|]if0f ;'zf;g÷ sfof{Gjog e"–agf]6÷ bogLo ;Lk÷ z}lIfs pRr l/h{e];g Hofbnfb/ / jf:tljs k|ltnlAw k"jf{wf/ Ifdtf ljlgdo b/sf] clwd"Nog ;|f]tM ljZj a}+s sd{rf/L pRr cf/f]x0fM dWocfo d'n'stkm{sf] lbzfdf 6 g]kfn, h'g ;+;f/sf ;aeGbf pBdzLn / ;fx;L dflg;x? / xfn;fn} ;g\ @)!% df cfP . clk|n @%, @)!% df cfPsf] &=^ a:g] d'n's x'Fbfx'Fb} klg, Go"g cfly{s j[l4 / pRr cfk|jf;gsf] dfkgsf] e"sDkn] sl/a ( xhf/ dflg;sf] Hofg lnof] / cd]l/sL ;xlaGb'df cfufdL s}of}+ jif{;Dd c8\ls/xg ;S5 -lrq v !_ . 8n/ %=@ ca{ a/fa/sf] ;DklQ gi6 jf gf]S;fg u¥of] . of] ;DklQ cfj @)!$ sf] g]kfnsf] s'ufpsf] sl/a Psrf}yfO xf] . sf]i7 v cfly{s j[l4 lsg lg/Gt/?kdf Go"g 5 < ! df k|i6\ofOPh:t} k|fs[lts ljklQx?n] cfly{s j[l4nfO{ xflg k'¥ofpF5g\ eGg] tYof+sdf cfwfl/t cg';Gwfgn] b]vfpF5 . (= klxnf], P]ltxfl;s / k|s[ltk|bQ sf/0fx¿n] g]kfnsf] ljsf;nfO{ r'gf}tLk"0f{ agfPsf] 5. g]kfn e"kl/j]li6t x'gs ' f !!= t];|f], g]kfn, ef/t / p;sf] cfly{s ljsf;sf] ult;Fu cltl/Qm o;sf] e"agf]6 c;lhnf] 5 . t/fO{sf] blIf0fL d}bfgaf6 -;+;f/d}_ ct'ngLo 9+un] pbf+uf] 5 . g]kfnsf] s'n j}bl] zs ;f]em} psfl;P/ dWokxf8 / pQ/sf] lxdfno kj{t z[v + nf;Dd Jofkf/sf] ^% k|ltzt lx:;f;lxt ef/t g]kfnsf] ;aeGbf 7"nf] k'Ug] o;sf] e"agf]6n] cfGtl/s ;Dks{ ;~hfn (connectivity) nfO{ Jofkf/ ;fem]bf/ xf] . g]kfnn] cfoft ug]{ ;Dk"0f{ j:t'dWo] *% jfwf k'¥ofPsf] 5 . o;sf ;fy}, ;g\ !*$^ kl5 Ps ztfAbLeGbf k|ltzteGbf a9L, tL j:t' h'g;'s} b]zsf pTkfbg eP klg, a9L cjlw;Dd g]kfn hxflgofF /f0ff k|wfgdGqLx?åf/f zfl;t ef/tdfkm{t\ g} leqG5 . o;}n] g]kfnsf] k|dv' kf/jxg dfu{ klg /Åof] . pgLx?sf] d'Vo p2]Zo g} d'ns ' sf ;|ft ] x?sf] bf]xg ug'{ ef/t g} xf] . b'O{ b]zaLr ! xhf/ & ;o %) lsnf]ld6/ nfdf] ;femf lyof] . ;/sf/L vr{ pgLx?sf] ljnf;L hLjg:t/nfO{ ;3fpg l;dfgf 5, h;sf] cy{ cf}krfl/s Jofkf/sf cltl/Qm clen]lvt / /fhgLlts r'gf}tL Pjd\ cfly{s ;Defjgfx?nfO{ bafpgdf gx'g] pNn]Vo dfqfdf j:t' Jofkf/, >ldsx?, ljk|i ] f0f cfbfgk|bfg ;dlk{t lyof] . ;g\ !(%! ;Dd d'n ' s' df cfw'lgs k|zf;g / x'G5 eg] d"No :kmLltsf] ptf/r9fj klg ef/tsf] d"No :kmLlt;+u ;fj{hlgs lzIffsf] s'g} k|fjwfg lyPg . o;sf] kl/0ffd:j?k, ;DalGwt 5 . g]kfnL ?k}ofF / ef/tLo d'bf| aLr l:y/ ljlgdo ef}lts / dfgj k"h F Lsf] :t/ cToGt Go"g / lg/If/tf b/ () (pegged) 5 . o;n] ubf{ :jtGq df}lb|s gLlt cjnDag ug{ k|ltzteGbf a9L lyof] -ljZj a}s + , !(^$_ . s]Gb|Lo a}s+ ;Fu ;Lldt cfotg dfq 5 . ljZj dfkb08cg';f/ ef/t cfkm} ;fk]IftM aGb cy{tGq ePsf]n] of] cfly{s ;xhLjgdf !)= bf];|f], g]kfn e"sDkh:tf k|fs[lts ljklQx¿af6 u|:t Ps txsf] gfh'skg cem ylkPsf] 5 . 5. lsgeg], g]kfn ef/tLo Kn]6 / o'/l] ;og Kn]6;Fu -hdLgleq_ wl;g] blIf0fL ;Ldfdf k5{ . ;+oQ + Lo ljsf; sfo{qmdsf ' m /fi6«;3 !@= rf}yf], g]kfnn] åGåsf] nfdf] z[v + nf / To;kl5 nlDaFbf] cg';f/ g]kfn ;+;f/sf e"sDksf hf]lvd ePsf d'ns ' x?dWo] /fhgLlts ;+qmd0fsfn v]lk/x]sf] 5 . ;g\ !((^ / @))^ !!cf}+ :yfgdf k5{ -o'Pg8LkL, @))$_ . ;g\ !(#$ sf] dxfe"sDk sf aLrdf ePsf] lx+;fTds ljb|fx ] n] lgDTofPsf] k|ToIf kL8fsf *=$ dfkgsf] lyof], h;n] !) xhf/eGbf a9L dflg;sf] Hofg cltl/Qm of] åGå cfly{s j[l4 / ljsf;nfO{ ;':t kfg]{ d'Vo sf/0f lnof] / clwstd k"jf{wf/x?nfO{ Wj:t agfof] . uDeL/ dfqfdf klg aGof] . tyflk, åGåsf] cGTo ePkl5, gofF ;+ljwfg hf/L dfgj / ef}lts Ifo k'¥ofpg] e"sDkx? ;g\ !(*), !(**, @)!! ug]{ !) jif{ nfdf] k|lqmofdf klg ax'kt| LlIft zflGtsf] nfen] d"t{ sf]i7 v ! M 7"nf ljktsf k|efjaf/] Jofjxfl/s cg';Gwfg ;g\ @))) sf] bzssf] k|f/Deb]lv Jofjxfl/s cg';Gwfgsf] Pp6f gof“ 5 . ljkt\sf kl/0fltx?nfO{ dfq ;d]6\g'sf] ;§f km]Nadfo/ / u|f]:n kf6f]sf] pb\ej ePsf] 5 h;n] ljklQx?sf] a[xt\ cfly{s k|efjx? -@)!$_ n] ljkt\sf] ef}lts tLj|tf;DaGwL 8f6f ;]6 -h:tf], /]S6/ d"Nof+sg u/]/, ljkt\ / cfly{s j[l4aLr ljk/Lt ;DaGw /x]sf] tYo :s]n, Hjfnfd'vL ljikmf]6 kl/;"rs, jfo'sf] j]u, jiff{ / tfkqmd cflb_ km]nf kf/]sf] 5 . o:tf] cWoogsf nflu k|of]u ul/Psf k|fs[lts k|of]u u/]sf 5g\ . pgLx?n] k|fs[lts ljkt\n] k|ltJolQm s'ufpsf] ljkt\sf tYof+sx?sf] ;|f]t …ljklQsf 36gfx?sf] ;+slnt tYof+sÚ j[l4b/nfO{ sd ug]{ tYo kQf nufPsf 5g\ . of] cjwf/0ffsf] nfe -Odh]{G;L Oe]G6\; 8f6f a];_ x'g] u/]sf] 5 . o; …8f6fa];Ún] k|fs[lts s] xf] eg] of] ljZn]if0fn] …Odh]{G;L Oe]G6 8f6f ;]6Ú n] k|:t't ug]{eGbf ljkt\x?sf] kl/0flt -k|efljt hg;+Vof, ePsf] Iflt, ;+s6sfn 3f]if0ff ljkt\sf w]/} 36gfx?nfO{ ;d]6\g ;S5 . oL vf]hstf{x?n] zlQmzfnL cflb_x?nfO{ ;d]6\5 / ltgn] a[xt\ cy{tGqsf ljljw …e]l/oaN;Úx?df k|fs[lts ljktx?n] -zlStzfnL ! k|ltztleq kg]{_ cf};tdf k|ltJolQm kfg]{ k|efjnfO{ b]vfp“5 . xfn;fn}sf b'O{ j6f cWoogx? -Snf]k / cfly{s j[l4b/ ^=* k|ltztn] sd ug]{ cg'dfg u/]sf] 5 . o;sf efNS;, @)!$ Pjd\ nfHhf/f]gL / efg ah]{s, @)!$_n] ^) eGbf a9L cltl/Qm ljkt\sf] k|efj /xg] cjlwnfO{ x]/]/ pgLx?n] ljkt\x?n] d'n'ssf] d]6fPgfnfOl;; ljlwåf/f ul/Psf] cWoogsf] ;f/;+If]k ;d]6]sf cNksfnLg cfly{s pef/ gNofpg] / cf};tdf ljkt\kl5sf] % jif{;Dd 5g\ . tL cWoogn] cf};tdf k|fs[lts ljkt\x? / cfly{s j[l4 aLr o:tf] pef/ gcfpg] lgisif{ lbPsf 5g\ . kl/0ffd:j?k, pgLx? ts{ ljk/Lt ;DaGw /x]sf] b]vfPsf 5g\ . u5{g\, …k|fs[lts ljkt\x?n] ljsf;nfO{ xflg u5{ .Ú ;fy}, d'n'sx?sf] pRr ;+:yfut Ifdtf, Jofkf/df a9L v'nfkg, pRr cfly{s ;]jfx?df ljkt\sf] ef}lts tLj|tfnfO{ ;d]6\g] 8f6f ;]6 k|of]u ul/Psf] csf]{ ePsf] v'nfkgn] ljkt\x?af6 x'g] Ifltsf] d"No v]Kg ;Sg] Ifdtfdf cWoogn] dfly plNnlvt vf]hsf] of] lgisif{nfO{ yk k'li6 u/]sf] ;'wf/ u5{ . pRr cf/f]x0fM dWocfo d'n'stkm{sf] lbzfdf 7 ?k lnPg . o;/L oyfy{df @) jif{ nfdf] cl:y/tf / /fhgLlts Psftkm{, aGb]hsf/s cfly{s gLltx? h:t}– clwd"Nog ul/Psf] ;+qmd0f cfhsf lbg;Dd sfod} 5 . of] cjlwdf d'ns ' lxGb" ljlgdo b/n] pBf]u / lgof{tsf] sfo{kb| z{gLnfO{ Ifof]Gd'v agfof] /fh;+:yfaf6 ;+3Lo u0ftGq eof] / @) hgf k|wfgdGqL / Tolt / afÅo vftfnfO{ bafadf /fVof] . csf{tkm{, ;g\ !(*) sf g} ;+Vofsf ;/sf/ ag] . hg;+Vofsf] 7"nf] c+z gofF ;+ljwfgsf bzssf] k|f/Desf lj:tf/sf/L cfly{s gLltx?n] cy{tGqnfO{ s]xL lglZrt k|fjwfgx?k|lt c;Gt'i6 /x]sfn] s]lGb|st[ d'ns' nfO{ pS;fpg ;s]gg\ / 7"nf] ljlQo 3f6fsf] (fiscal deficit) l:yltdf lqmofzLn ;+3Lo d'ns ' agfpg] k|lqmof z'? x'g afFsL g} 5 . /, k'¥ofof] . To;sf] kl/0ffd:j?k a[xt\ cy{tGqdf ax'cfoflds of] k|lqmofdf clxn] g} ljleGg ljjfb cfPsf 5g\ . ;+s6 cfOnfUof] . cfj ;g\ !(*! df s'ufpsf] ^=! k|ltzt /x]sf] ;du| ah]6 3f6f cfj ;g\ !(*# df !@=# k|ltzt k'Uof] . /, oxL cjlwdf rfn' vftf (current account) 3f6f bf]Aa/ eP/ cfj ;g\ ;dsfnLg cfly{s Oltxf;n] sdhf]/ !(*# df s'ufpsf] em08} (=@ k|ltzt k'Uof] . cfj ;g\ !(*% ;+:yfx? / gfh's gLltut 5gf]6nfO{ sf] cGTodf s'n ljb]zL ;l~rtL (foreign reserve) * dlxgfsf] sf/s b]vfPsf 5g\ cfo wfGg ;Sg] cj:yfaf6 36]/ tLg dlxgfsf] dfq cfoft wfGg] cj:yfdf vl:sof] -ljZj a}s + , !(*(_ . !#= g]kfnsf] jt{dfg cfly{s Oltxf;n] xfdLnfO{ s] l;sfPsf] 5 eg], sdhf]/ ;+:yfx¿ / c;xof]uL gLltut 5gf]6sf !%= bf];|f] cjlw -;g\ !(*^ b]lv ;g\ !((^_ v'nfkg, ;'wf/ sf/0f g]kfnsf r'gf}tLx¿ cem a9]sf 5g\. xfdLn] g]kfnsf] / pRrtd cfly{s j[l4b/sf] o'u lyof] . ;g\ !(*) bzssf] cfly{s Oltxf;nfO{ rf/ ljlzi6 cjlwdf afF8/ ] ljsf;nfO{ cfsf/ lbg] gLltx? k/LIf0f u/]sf 5f}+ -lrq v @ / lrq v #_ . aLrsf] eofjx a[xt\ cfly{s (macroeconomic) cj:yfn] g]kfnsf] ljsf; ;DefJotfnfO{ r'gf}tL lbPsf] lyof] . kl/0ffd:j?k, ;g\ !$= ;g\ !(&) b]lv !(*% ;Ddsf] sfnv08 cy{tGq v'nf !(*% b]lv ;/sf/n] cGt/f{li6«o d'bf | sf]if / ljZj a}s + åf/f ug'{cl3sf], ;':t Pjd\ t/n cfly{s j[l4sf] klxnf] o'u ;dly{t l:y/Ls/0f / ;dfof]hg sfo{qmdx? (stabilization and adjustment program) sfof{Gjog ug]{ k|lqmof z'? u¥of] . o;sf] lyof] . g]kfnsf k|f/lDes sl7g cj:yfx?nfO{ ;g\ !(&) / !(*% sf] aLrdf g]kfnn] lnPsf gLltx?n] yk hl6n agfPsf p2]Zo ljQLo tyf df}lb|s gLltx?sf] r':ttnfO{ k':yf{lkt u/L lyP . Toltv]/sf] ljsf; lrGtgdf cfwfl/t /x]/ x]bf{ gLltx? cy{tGqnfO{ lbuf] cfly{s j[l4sf] dfu{df n}hfg' lyof] . ;g\ !(*) x:tIf]ksf/L, ;+/If0fjfbL / /fHolgolGqt lyP . kl/0ffd:j?k, sf] bzssf] cGTolt/ g]kfn cfly{s cl:y/tfaf6 dfq plDs;s]sf] ;fj{hlgs If]q 7"nf], /fHosf] :jfldTjsf ;+:yfgx?sf] babaf dfq lyPg, Jofkf/ / cf}Bf]lus pbf/Ls/0fsf] k4lt klg z'? / aGb–cy{tGq lyof] . o;n] ubf{ Go"g dfqfsf] nufgL / lemgf] eO;s]sf] lyof] . bnljxLg k~rfotL Joj:yfsf] cGTo / To;kl5 dfq pTkfbsTj j[l4 x'g ;Sof] . kl/0ffdtM ;g\ !(&) / k|hftflGqs 9+un] ;g\ !((! df ag]sf] lgjf{lrt ;/sf/n] ;'wf/ !(*% sf] aLrdf /fli6«o cfosf] j[l4b/ # k|ltztsf] cf};tdf sfo{qmdx?nfO{ yk an lbP . ;/sf/n] ahf/–pGd'v ;'wf/ / / k|ltJolQm cfo d'l:snn] )=* k|ltztn] dfq a9\g ;Sof] . dfgj k"hF L ljsf;sf nflu ;fdflhs If]qdf nufgLdfkm{t\ ul/aL lrq v @ M g]kfndf cfly{s j[l4sf] Oltxf;, ;g\ !(&) b]lv ;g\ @)!% -k|ltzt kl/jt{g_ s'ufp j[l4 (GDP growth) k|j[lQ j[l4b/ -PrkL lkmN6/_ !) cy{tGq v'nf x'g' cl3sf] o'u ;'wf/sf] o'u åGåsf] cjlw /fhgLlts ;+qmd0f * ^ $ @ ) –@ –$ !(&) !(&% !(*) !(*% !(() !((% @))) @))% @)!) @)!% ;|f]t M ljZj ljsf; ;"rsf+s / ljZj a}+s sd{rf/Lx?sf] u0fgf gf]6 M PrkL– xf]l8«s– k|];s6 lkmN6/ pRr cf/f]x0fM dWocfo d'n'stkm{sf] lbzfdf 8 lrq v # M hg;+Vof / k|ltJolQm s'ufp j[l4, ;g\ !(&) b]lv ;g\ @)!% -k|ltzt kl/jt{g_ hg;+Vof j[l4 k|ltJolQm s'ufp j[l4b/sf] k|j[lQ (GDP per capita growth, trend) #=% cy{tGq v'nf x'g'cl3sf] o'u ;'wf/sf] o'u åGåsf] cjlw /fhgLlts ;+qmd0f #=) @=% @=) !=% !=) )=% )=) !(&) !(&% !(*) !(*% !(() !((% @))) @))% @)!) @)!% ;|f]t M ljZj ljsf; ;"rsf+s / ljZj a}+s sd{rf/Lx?sf] u0fgf Go"gLs/0fk|lt nlIft Jofks cfly{s ;'wf/sf sfo{qmdx?sf] If]qx? -hg;+Vofsf] sl/a @@ k|ltzt_ / blntx? -tNnf] hft sfof{Gjog z'? u¥of] . ;g\ !(() sf] bzssf] k|f/Dedf lnOPsf cyjf c5'tx?_ / cflbjf;L hghfltx? -hg;+Vofsf] sl/a sbdx?df, Joj;fo jf kmd{x?sf] ahf/ k|jz ] nfO{ ;xh agfpg], $^ k|ltzt_ ljz]if?kn] k5fl8 k/]@ . o;sf cltl/Qm ;fk]IftM Jofkf/ / rfn" vftf sf/f]af/df j[l4 ug]{ / ljQLo If]qnfO{ pbf/ k|ult x'b F } klg k|ltJolQm cfo j[l4b/n] hg;+Vof j[l4b/nfO{ F fx'b agfpg] gLltx?nufot lyP . ;g\ !(() sf] bzssf] aLr;Dd e]§fpg ;s]g, h;n] ul/aLsf] lg/Gt/tfnfO{ bzf{p5 F  . cem}, ;'wf/ sfo{qmdx? h:t}, s[lifIf]qsf] pbf/Ls/0f, d"No clej[l4 ;g\ !(() sf] bzssf] dWoaf6 z'? ePsf cl:y/ / ldlnh'nL s/sf] ;'?jft / :yfgLo ;'zf;g;Dj4 sfg"gx? nfu" ug]{ x/]s ;/sf/n] cf};t !@ dlxgfsf] cjlw zf;g u/] . o;af6 + , @))%_ . oL ;'wf/x?sf] cflbnfO{ k|uf9Ls/0f ul/of] -ljZj a}s l;lh{t /fhgLlts cl:y/tfn] gofF ;+:yfut ;+/rgfx?sf] cfkm\g} | ultdf g]kfnL cy{tGqdf ;sf/fTds k|efj k¥of] . cfly{s j[l4 b't gLltx?nfO{ sfof{Gjog ug]{ IfdtfnfO{ Ifo u/fof] . oL ;a}n] eof] / cfosf] ptf/r9fj pNn]Vo?kn] 36\of] . ;g\ !(*^ / ubf{ ;g\ @))! kl5 lj:tf/ ePsf] dfcf]jfbL ljb|fx ] n] g]kfnsf] ;g\ !((^ sf aLrdf cf};t cfly{s j[l4b/ g]kfnsf] cfw'lgs 7"nf] e"v08df ;'/Iff l:yltdf uDeL/ c;/ k'/o \ fof] eg] ljsf; Oltxf;d} pRr, cf};t % k|ltztsf ;fy} k|ltJolQm cfo @=$ tyf ;'zf;gdf afwf pTkGg u¥of] . k|hftflGqs ;+:yfx? qmdzM k|ltztn] j[l4 eof] . cy{tGq cem v'nf / ljljwLs[t eof] . lgnDagdf k/] . /, ;g\ @))% km]ac '| /Ldf /fhf 1fg]Gb|n] k|ToIf s'ufpdf Jofkf/ / lgof{tsf] c+z bf]Aa/ eof] -j:t' / ;]jfx?sf] zf;g sfod u/] . of] eb|uf]nsf sf/0f o'4sf] nfut a9\of] lgof{t ;g\ !(*% df s'ufpsf] !!=% k|ltztaf6 a9]/ ;g\ !((^ / ;'wf/ sfo{qmdx?sf] k|ult ;':t eof], o; cjlwsf] cfly{s df s'ufpsf] @# k|ltzt eof]_!  . pBf]u (manufacturing) sf] j[l4b/nfO{ pNn]Vo?kn] 36fof] . >lds czflGt / gful/s åGåsf s'ufpdf of]ubfg klg ;g\ !(*% sf] % k|ltztaf6 em08} bf]Aa/ sf/0f pBf]ux?sf] sfddf c8\rgx? cfP . o;sf ;fy}, Psflt/ eP/ ;g\ !((^ df s'ufpsf] ( k|ltzt k'Uof] . ljZjdf k|lt:kwL{ jftfj/0f a9\b} uof] eg] csf]t { km{ dlN6kmfOa/ P/]Ghd]G6dfkm{t\ g]kfnn] kfPsf] ufd]G { 6 lgof{tsf] Uof/]G6L sf]6f !^= t];|f] cjlw, ;g\ !((& b]lv ;g\ @))^, åGå / /fhgLlts qmdzM x6\b} uof] . o;n] g]kfnL lgof{tsf] ahf/ c+z qmdzM ptf/r9fjsf] o'u /x\of], h;sf] kl/0ffd cfly{s j[l4b/ sd eof]#  . ;g\ @))^ ;Dd j:t' / ;]jf lgof{tsf] of]ubfg ;':t eof] . cl3Nnf] cjlwdf k|ult xfl;n ul/Psf] eP klg s'ufpdf !# k|ltzt / pBf]usf] of]ubfg s'ufpsf] &=* k|ltztdf g]kfnsf] ljsf; k|lqmofdf gfh'stf / sdL–sdhf]/Lx? eg] lyP . eml/;s]sf] lyof] . tyflk, oL r'gf}tLx? x'b F } klg ;du| a[xt\ F fx'b ;a} If]q / ;d"xx? cfly{s j[l4 / dfgj ljsf;sf] nfe lng cfly{s :yfloTj eg] sfod /x]sf] lyof] . ;dfg?kn] ;xefuL x'g ;s]sf lyPgg\ . klZrd / ;'b/ " klZrd ! d'Vou/L un}+rf / tof/L kf]zfsn] a9fPsf] . @ oL juL{s/0fx? aLr x/]s juL{s/0fleq} klg pNn]Vo?kdf lje]bx? 5g\ . pbfx/0fsf nflu, afx'g / If]qlx? -pRr hfltx?_sf] cf};tdf dfgj ljsf; ;"rsf+s pRr 5 tfklg dWo / dWoklZrdsf e"If]qx?df log} hfltx?df d'n'ss} ;aeGbf pRrdWo]sf] ul/aL b/ ljBdfg 5 . # dlN6kmfOa/ P/]Ghd]G6sf] k|fjwfg ;g\ !((% df cGTo ePsf] xf] . t/, sk8f Jofkf/sf] sf]6f k|0ffnLnfO{ bzjif{df qmlds?kn] x6fP/ ;g\ @))%df cGTo ul/Psf] xf] . pRr cf/f]x0fM dWocfo d'n'stkm{sf] lbzfdf 9 !&= rf}yf] cjlw -;g\ @))& b]lv ;g\ @)!$_ åGåf]Q/ ;do j[l4b/nfO{ g} tn emf¥of] . vf;u/L k|ltJolQm cfly{s j[l4b/ lyof], h;df gofF /fhgLlts ;xdlt lgdf{0fdf Wofgs]lGb|t u0fgfdf o;sf] c;/ b]lvof] . ;fy}, s[lifIf]qn] 7"nf] >d c+z eof] / cfly{s d'2fx? 5fofFdf k/] . gofF cGtl/d ;+ljwfgsf] k|zf]rg u/]sf] 5 . z'?sf lbgdf *^ k|ltzt >d s[lifdf nfu]sf] ;]/f]km]/f]df ePsf /fhgLlts ;xdltx?n] zlQmsf] x:tfGt/0f, lyof] eg] clxn] of] ^^ k|ltztdf 36]sf] 5 . kl/0ffd:j?k ;fdflhs / /fhgLlts ;dfj]zLs/0f, nf]stflGqs lgjf{rg /f]huf/L kfPsf] k|ltsfdbf/sf] d"No clej[l4b/ k|To]s jif{ cf};t / /fhgLlts hafkmb]lxtfnfO{ :jLsf/ u¥of] . tyflk, w]/n } ] )=& k|ltzt dfq /Åof] -lrq v $_ . ck]Iff u/]sf] zflGtsf] nfe eg] oyfy{df ?kfGt/0f g} ePg / of] cjlwdf cf};t cfly{s j[l4b/ $=& k|ltztsf] ultdf cl3 @)= Go"g ;fj{hlgs nufgL Pjd\ Go"g kFh " L ;~ro. ;g\ a9\of] . nufgLdf pRr j[l4 xf]nf egL ul/Psf] ck]Iff k"/f ePg . !(&) / ;g\ @)!$ sf] aLrdf s'n l:y/ k"h F L lgdf{0f (gross nlDaPsf] /fhgLlts ;+qmd0f / clglZrttfsf sf/0f g]kfnsf] fixed capital formation) cf};t s'ufpsf] !* k|ltzt xf/fxf/L nufgL jftfj/0f lalu|Psfn] o;f] ePsf] x'g ;S5 . F L lgdf{0f ;g\ !(*% b]lv ;g\ !((^ ;Dd s'ufpsf] /Åof] . o:tf] k"h @) k|ltzt;Dd j[l4 ePsf] lyof] . t/, Tof] lbuf] x'g ;s]g . cfly{s j[l4sf] ljZn]if0fn] ;g\ !((^ kl5 nufgL sd x'gs ' f] sf/s åGå xf] eGg ;lsG5 . ] u5{ h8jt\ r'gf}tLtkm{ ;+st tyflk, åGåsf] cGTo ePkl5 klg nufgLdf pef/ cfPsf] 5}g . kl/0ffd:j?k, of] ;du| cjlwdf cf};t $ k|ltzt cfly{s j[l4df !*= ljut $% jif{sf] cfly{s sfo{k|bz{gL ljZn]if0f ubf{ nufgLn] ! k|ltzt laGb' dfq of]ubfg lbPsf] 5 -lrq v %_ . w]/}j6f dxŒjk"0f{ k|j[lQ phfu/ x'G5g\ . g]kfnsf] P]ltxfl;s cfly{s sfo{kb| z{gLaf6 tLg j6f lj:t[t k|jl[ Q 5'6o \ fpg ;lsG5 M @!= Go"g ;du| pTkfbsTj j[l4 . of] cjlwel/ pTkfbsTjdf 7"nf] lx:;f cf]u6\g] s[lifIf]qsf] sdhf]/ sfo{kb | z{g, Go"g ;fj{hlgs ;'wf/ ePg / gsf/fTds Pjd\ ;sf/fTds j[l4sf] nufgL Pjd\ Go"g k"h F L ;~ro / pTkfbsTjdf Go"g j[l4 . ptf/r9fjdf g} clNem/x\of] . klxnf] 8]9 bzsdf pTkfbsTj 36\of] . ;g\ !(*% df pbf/Ls/0fsf ;'wf/x? z'? ePkl5 !(= s[lif If]qsf] sfo{k|bz{gL sdhf]/ /x]sf] 5. s'ufpdf pTkfbsTj j[l4 dfly r9\of] / cfly{s j[l4b/df ;sf/fTds of]ubfg o;sf] of]ubfgsf] c+z 36\b} uP tfklg s[lifn] g]kfnsf] cy{tGqdf F L u¥of] . åGåsf] cjlw -;g\ !(^^ b]lv ;g\ @))^_ sf] cjlwdf k"h 7"nf] e"ldsf v]ns] f] 5 . ;g\ !(&) df o;n] s'ufpsf] b'Ol{ txfO nufgL (capital inputs) / s'n j:t' pTkfbsTjdf (total factor d"No clej[l4 (value added) u/]sf] / ;du| cjlwdf of] cf};t productivity, 6LPkmkL_ pNn]Vo?kn] sdL cfpg' cfZro{hgs %) k|ltzt xf/fxf/L /x]sf] 5 . cy{tGq cf};t $ k|ltztn] a9\bf ePg . s'n j:t' pTkfbsTjsf] j[l4b/df åGåkl5sf] cjlwdf klg s[lif If]qsf] j[l4 @=* k|ltzt dfq /x]sf] 5, h'g k|ltzt ;'wf/ cfof], hals k"h F L ;~rodf (capital accumulation) eg] hg;+Vof j[l4b/eGbf clnslt dfq} w]/} xf] . ;fk]IftM o;sf] 7"nf] o:tf] ;'wf/ ePg . k"h { f] cjlweGbf F L ;~ron] clxn] klg åGåk"js cfsf/sf sf/0f s[lif If]qdf ePsf] ;':t j[l4b/n] ;du| cfly{s cfly{s j[l4df sd of]ubfg lbO/x]sf] 5 -lrq v ^_ . lrq v $ M d"No clej[l4df of]ubfg, If]qut b[li6n] (Contribution to value-added growth by sector) laGb'ut k|ltzt, cfly{s j[l4df of]ubfg s[lif ;]jf cf};t j[l4 pBf]u z]if -af“sL_ ^ v'nfkgcl3sf] o'u ;'wf/sf] o'u åGå /fhgLlts ;+qmd0f % $=* $=$ $ $=) #=* #=# @=# # !=( @=% !=* !=$ @ !=) )=& )=% )=% )=^ ! !=# !=! !=# !=@ !=$ ) !(&#–@)!$ !(&#–!(*% !(*^–!((^ !((&–@))^ @))&–@)!$ ;|f]t M ljZj a}+s sd{rf/Lx?sf] /fli6«o tYof+sdf cfwfl/t u0fgf pRr cf/f]x0fM dWocfo d'n'stkm{sf] lbzfdf 10 lrq v % M s'ufp j[l4df of]ubfg, vr{sf b[li6n] (Contribution to GDP growth by expenditure) laGb'ut k|ltzt, cfly{s j[l4df of]ubfg lghL vkt ;fj{hlgs vkt s'n nufgL v'b lgof{t z]if -af“sL_ cf};t j[l4 !$ v'nfkgcl3sf] o'u ;'wf/sf] o'u åGå /fhgLlts ;+qmd0f !) ^ !=) !=% %=) !=@ $=& $=) )=* )=^ )=$ !=^ )=$ )=$ #=* #=) @ #=# )=# #=^ #=^ $=) !=( –@ –!=* –)=^ –!=! –!=! –$=) –^ !(&#–@)!$ !(&#–!(*% !(*^–!((^ !((&–@))^ @))&–@)!$ ;|f]t M ljZj a}+s sd{rf/Lx?sf] ;+o'Qm /fi6«;+3sf] tYof+sdf cfwfl/t u0fgf c:jfefljs cfly{s ?kfGt/0fn] d'n'ssf @#= cfk|jf;g / ljk|i ] f0fn] c:jfefljs ;+/rgfut ?kfGt/0fnfO{ ljsf; ck]Iffx?nfO{ s'l07t u/]sf] 5 ;3fPsf] 5 . ha sfdbf/x? zx/L If]qsf pRr pTkfbsTjo'Qm pTkfbgzLn If]qdf hfgsf nflu Go"g pTkfbsTjo'Qm s[lifIf]q 5f]85 \ g\, @@= qmda4 cfly{s of]hgfdfkm{t\ g]kfn ;/sf/n] cfly{s To;nfO{ :jfefljs ;+/rgfut ?kfGt/0f (structural transformation) ljsf; xfl;n ug{sf nflu lg/Gt/ sf]l;; u/]sf] 5 . clxn], ePsf] elgG5 . oL zx/x?n] cfly{s j[l4sf] Ol~hgsf ?kdf sfd u5{g\ Go"g cfo d'ns ' af6 :t/f]Gglt x'g' k|dv ' nIo /x]sf] 5 . ;g\ !(%^ / ;]jfdf cfwfl/t cy{tGqdf cem yk d"No clej[l4 u/]/ ?kfGt/0fnfO{ b]lv ;g\ @))& ;Dd ;/sf/n] pTkfbsTj j[l4 / hLjg:t/ ;'wfg{ !) km/flsnf] agfpF5 . g]kfnsf] cy{tGqdf s[lifIf]qsf] of]ubfg b't| ultn] j6f k~rjifL{o of]hgf sfof{Gjog u¥of] . /fh;+:yf x6]/ ;g\ @))& 36]/ #$ k|ltzt ePsf] 5, tfklg >dzlQm s[lifaf6 aflx/ lg:sg], df cGtl/d ;+ljwfg nfu" ePkl5 of]hgfx?nfO{ tLgjif]{ x'g] u/L g]kfnL pBf]ux?df gofF /f]huf/L l;h{gf ePsf sf/0f k|fT ] ;flxt ePsf] 5'6o\ fOPsf] lyof] . clxn]sf] rf}wf}+ of]hgf -;g\ @)!%–;g\ @)!&_n] ;g\ xf]Og . a? j}bl] zs /f]huf/Lsf cj;/x?n] o:tf] >d rnfogdfg @)#) leq dWocfo d'ns ' sf] x}l;ot xfl;n ug]{ nIo lnPsf] 5 . ePsf] xf] . h] eP klg Go"g pTkfbsTjo'Qm s[lif If]q d'ns' df ;aeGbf lrq v ^ M s'ufp j[l4df of]ubfg, pTkfbg ;fwgsf b[li6n] (Contribution to GDP growth by factor) laGb'ut k|ltzt, cfly{s j[l4df of]ubfg k"FhL ;~ro >d dfgj k"“hL pTkfbsTj -6LPkmkL_ cf};t j[l4 ^ v'nfkgcl3sf] o'u ;'wf/sf] o'u åGå /fhgLlts ;+qmd0f % %=) )=$ )=$ $=& )=) $=) )=^ $ )=* #=* !=! )=* !=! # )=) #=) )=( !=! )=^ !=) @=* @ @=% @=! !=) @=@ ! !=$ ) –)=# –! !(&#–@)!$ !(&#–!(*% !(*^–!((^ !((&–@))^ @))&–@)!$ ;|f]t M ljZj a}+s sd{rf/Lx?sf] /fli6«o tYof+sdf cfwfl/t u0fgf pRr cf/f]x0fM dWocfo d'n'stkm{sf] lbzfdf 11 7"nf] /f]huf/bftfsf ?kdf g} /x]sf] 5 . ljb]zdf ePsf] ljk|i ] f0f cfon] + . of] ‘df]8n’n] eljiosf] cfly{s k|jl[ QnfO{ xfdLn] ‘df]8l] nª’ u/]sf 5f}  g]kfnsf] a}l+ sª, lzIff, /]i6'/fF, Jofkf/ / 3/hUufh:tf ;]jf If]qx?sf] j[l4sf] dfu{ / k|jl[ QnfO{ u0fgf ug{ ;Ifd agfPsf] 5 . of] cfly{s ljsf;df pmhf{ lbPsf] 5 . ;]jf If]q (service sector) s'ufpsf] %) j[l4sf] df]8n ;doqmddf b]lvg] nufgL / s'ufpsf cg'kft;DaGwL k|ltzt k'us ] f] 5, hals cf}Bf]lus If]qsf] (industrial sector) of]ubfg dfGotfx?, dfgj k"h F Lsf] j[l4b/, s'n j:t'sf] pTkfbsTj, hg;+Vof ;fk]If?kdf 36]/ -afFsL_ !^ k|ltzt /x]sf] 5 . j[l4b/, >dzlQm ;xeflutf / cfly{s j[l4sf c? dxÎjk"0f{ pTk|/ ] sx?h:tf w]/} cjojdf cfwfl/t 5 . ljZj a}s ' x?nfO{ + n] d'ns @$= c:jfefljs ?kfGt/0fn] eg] pTkfbsTj j[l4nfO{ ;Lldt s'n /fli6«o cfosf] P6\nf; k4lt (Atlas method) cg';f/ k|ltJolQm kf/]sf] 5 . ;]jf If]qdf ePsf] o:tf] ckl/kSj :t/f]Gglt (premature cfo u0fgfsf cfwf/df ljleGg cfo ;d"xdf juL{s/0f u5{ . ;g\ graduation) sf] Pp6f b'ik|efj s] ePsf] 5 eg], ;g\ !((% b]lv @)!^ sf nflu k|ltJolQm s'n /fli6«o cfo (gross national income ;g\ @)!) sf] cjlwdf cy{tGqsf ;a} k|sf/sf Hofnf cfDbfgL per capita) ! xhf/ @% cd]l/sL 8n/eGbf a9L ePsf d'ns ' x?nfO{ ;+u ;DalGwt /f]huf/Lsf Ifdtf kIf (skill content) df j[l4 ePsf] Go"g–dWod cfo d'ns ' sf ?kdf kl/eflift ul/Psf] lyof] . ;g\ @)!^ 5}g . 7"nf] ;+Vofdf Jofj;flos ;]jf / pTkfbsTj;Da4 /f]huf/Lsf df g]kfnsf] o:tf] cfo & ;o #) cd]l/sL 8n/ dfq lyof] . cj;/x? 5g\ tfklg ltgdf Go"g ;Lksf /f]huf/Lx?sf] dfu a9L 5 . o;sf] :yfgfGt/0fdf s]xL ;sf/fTds k|efj k/]sf] 5 / s[lifIf]qaf6 @^= nfdf] ;dob]lv ljBdfg /x]sf r'gf}tLx?nfO{ ;Daf]wg aflx/ lg:sg] >ldsx?n] zx/L ;]jfk|bfo If]qdf cln /fd|f] /f]huf/L ug{ ;Sg] Jofks ;'wf/lagf g]kfn ;DejtM ;g\ @)#) cl3 kfPsf 5g\ . t/, zx/L ;]jf If]qsf] 36\bf] pTkfbsTjn] gsf/fTds Go"g dWod cfo d'n's aGg ;Sb}g . ;Defljt s'ufp j[l4b/ k|efj b]vfPsf] 5 . o;sf] cy{ xf], oL /f]huf/Lsf cj;/x? klg cln lgwf{/0f ug{sf nflu clxn]s} kl/b[Zox?nfO{ cfwf/ dfg]/ xfdLn] /fd|f dfq} x'g, h;n] lbuf] ?kfGt/0f :yflkt ub}g {  . o:tf] cj:yfdf, d'Vo ‘e]l/PaN;’– nufgLb]lv s'ufp, dfgj k"h F Lsf] j[l4, pTkfbsTjsf] of] c:jfefljs ;+/rgfut ?kfGt/0f ;du| pTkfbsTj a9f]Q/Lsf j[l4nfO{ xfn}sf] P]ltxfl;s cf};tx? / ;+oQ + sf] hg;+Vof ' m /fi6«;3 nflu Pp6f afws ag]sf] 5 . hals, ;du| pTkfbsTj j[l4 g} k|If]k0fnfO{ ldnfg u/L x]/s + . pbfx/0fsf nflu, ljZj a}s ] f 5f}  + sf] bL3{sfnLg b|t ' t/ cfly{s j[l4sf nflu lg0ff{os xf] . cg'dfgsf cfwf/df ;g\ @))! b]lv ;g\ @)!$ ;Dd cf};tdf pTkfbsTj d'l:snn] )=)$ k|ltztn] dfq j[l4 eof] -lrq v &_ . @%= g]kfnn] lgDg cfo d'ns ' sf] txaf6 :t/f]Gglt x'gsf /, dfgj k"h F L cf};tdf k|ltjif{ !=% k|ltztn] dfq a9\of] -lrq v nflu s] ug'k { 5{ eGg] klxrfg ug{sf nflu bL3{sfnLg cfly{s *_ . hals, nufgL / s'ufpsf] cg'kft @! k|ltzt -cf};tdf_ hlt j[l4sf] df]8nnfO{ ‘lgof]Snfl;sn’ cfly{s j[l4sf] l;4fGt /Åof] -lrq v (_ . of] kl/l:ylt kl/jt{g ePg eg] cfly{s j[l4sf] (neoclassical growth theory) k|of]u u/L ljZn]if0f ul/Psf] ;Defljt b/ jf k|jl[ Q ;':t x'g5 ] / ;g\ @)!& b]lv ;g\ @)#) sf] 5 . ;f]nf] -;g\ !(%^_ / :jfg -;g\ !(%^_sf] df}lns sfo{ / aLrdf cfly{s j[l4 cf};tdf # k|ltzt /xg]5 . cfly{s j[l4 b/sf] xfn}sf] x]leof / nf]ohf -;g\ @)!@_sf] cWoognfO{ cfwf/ dfgL of] k|jl[ Qcg';f/ ;g\ @)#) df k|ltJolQm cfo cd]l/sL 8n/ ( ;o g]kfnL cy{tGqsf] eljiosf] ;DefJotf cyjf cfly{s j[l4b/sf] %* dfq k'Ug]5 . -lrq v !)_ . lrq v & M pTkfbsTj j[l4 lrq v * M dfgj k"“hL j[l4 -jflif{s k|ltzt kl/jt{g_ -jflif{s k|ltzt kl/jt{g_ # !=* dfgj k"FhL a[l4 @ s'n j:t' ! pTkfbg a[l4 !=^ ) –! cf};t @))!–@)!$ !=$ cf};t @))!–@)!! –@ –# !=@ –$ –% !=) @))! @))@ @))# @))$ @))% @))^ @))& @))* @))( @)!) @)!! @))! @))@ @))# @))$ @))% @))^ @))& @))* @))( @)!) @)!! @)!@ @)!# @)!$ ;|f]t M ljZj a}+s sd{rf/Lsf] /fli6«o tYof+sdf cfwfl/t u0fgf ;|f]t M k]g–jN8{ 6]an *=! pRr cf/f]x0fM dWocfo d'n'stkm{sf] lbzfdf 12 lrq v ( M nufgL / s'ufp cg'kft lrq v !) M s'n /fli6«o cfo k|ltJolQm j[l4b/ -;'wf/ gePsf] cj:yf, business as usual_ -s'ufpsf] k|ltzt_ -s'n /fli6«o cfo @)!^, cd]l/sL 8n/_ #) !!)) Go"g cfo d'n's :t/f]Gglt ;Ldf s'n l:y/ k"FhL lgdf{0f !))) ()) k|ltAolQm /fli6«o cfo @) cf};t *)) @))!–@)!^ &)) !) ^)) %)) ) $)) @))) @))! @))@ @))# @))$ @))% @))^ @))& @))* @))( @)!) @)!! @)!@ @)!# @)!$ @)!% @)!^ @)!^ @)!& @)!* @)!( @)@) @)@! @)@@ @)@# @)@$ @)@% @)@^ @)@& @)@* @)@( @)#) ;|f]t M s]Gb|Lo tYof+s ljefu ;|f]t M ljZj a}+s sd{rf/Lsf] u0fgf k|ltJolQm /fli6«o cfo j[l4 -cf};tdf_ x'gsf nflu ;g\ @))! b]lv \ sf nflu Jojl:yt g]kfnsf] b'irqm tf]8g ;g\ @)!^ sf] !% jif{] cjlwdf sfod nufgL / s'ufpsf] cf}ift x:tIf]ksf] cfjZostf 5 cg'kft (investment to GDP ratio) cf}ifteGbf yk !) k|ltzt ' 5{ . nufgL / s'ufp cg'kft ;g\ @)!& b]lv laGb'eGbf a9Ln] j[l4 x'gk @&= ;g\ @)#) ;Dd g]kfn Go"g cfo d'n'saf6 :t/f]Gglt ;g\ @)#) ;Dd k|ltjif{ s'ufpsf] cf};t @% k|ltzt x'g' cfjZos x'gsf nflu s] ug'k { 5{ < plNnlvt df]8n g} k|of]u u/]/, xfdLn] 5 -lrq v !!_ . ;doqmd;Fu} cfjZos cg'kft ;LdfGt?kn] s'n k|ltJolQm /fli6«o cfosf] dfu{ klxNofpg cfjZos kg]{ nufgL 36\5, lsgeg] kl5Nnf jif{x?df @@ cd]l/sL 8n/ ylkgsf nflu b/sf] ;dfwfg lgsfn]sf 5f}  + . o;f] ubf{ c? cjojx? / P]ltxfl;s cfjZos j[l4b/ qmdzM sd eP k'U5 . lsgeg], k|ltJolQm /fli6«o cf};tx?nfO{ oyfjt\ /flvPsf] 5 . of] cEof; ug{sf nflu x/]s cfosf] :t/ dfly k'lu;s]sf] x'G5 . o:tf] kl/b[Zodf ;Defljt jif{ k|ltJolQm /fli6«o cfo l:y/ /sdsf b/n] j[l4 x'G5 eGg] dfGotf cfly{s j[l4sf] k|jl[ Q cf};t #=% k|ltzt x'g5 ]  . o;/L nufgL / lnOPsf] 5, h;n] ubf{ ;g\ @)#) ;Dd of] ! xhf/ @% cd]l/sL s'ufp cg'kft @% k|ltzteGbf a9L xfl;n ug]{ jf:tljs ;Defjgf 8n/ k'Ug] b]vfpF5 . cfDbfgL of] a/fa/ k'Ugsf nflu k|ltjif{ @@ 5 . vf;u/L cGo blIf0f Pl;ofnL d'ns ' x?sf ;Gbe{df x]bf{ of] cd]l/sL 8n/n] cfodf j[l4 x'gk ] n] k|ltjif{ @@ 8n/n] ' 5{ . of] df]8n ;Defjgf b]lvG5 -lrq v !@_ . tfklg, /ftf/ft 7"nf] k|ltztdf lrq v !! M Go"g cfo d'n'saf6 :t/f]Ggltsf] nflu cfjZos nufgL lrq v !@ M blIf0f Pl;of If]qdf nufgL b/ -s'ufpsf] k|ltzt_ -s'ufpsf] k|ltzt_ cfjZos nufgL cg'kft g]kfn a+unfb]z ef/t #) $) kfls:tfg >Ln+sf cf};t @))!–@)!^ #% #) @) @% @) !% !) !) % ) ) @))) @))! @))@ @))# @))$ @))% @))^ @))& @))* @))( @)!) @)!! @)!@ @)!# @)!$ @)!% @)!& @)!* @)!( @)@) @)@! @)@@ @)@# @)@$ @)@% @)@^ @)@& @)@* @)@( @)#) ;|f]t M ljZj a}+s sd{rf/Lsf] u0fgf ;|f]t M ljZj ljsf; ;"rsf+s pRr cf/f]x0fM dWocfo d'n'stkm{sf] lbzfdf 13 lrq v !# M ;'wf/ kl/b[Zosf dfGotfx? (reform scenario assumptions) lrq v !$ M s'n /fli6«o cfo k|ltJolQm j[l4b/ -;'wf/ kl/b[Zo, reform scenario) -s'ufpsf] k|ltzt_ -s'n /fli6«o cfo @)!^, cd]l/sL 8n/df_ #% )=^ !$)) cf};t nufgL k|ltJolQm s'n /fli6«o cfo #) !@)) )=% Go"g cfo d'n'saf6 :t/f]Ggltsf] ;Ldf s'n j:t' pTkfbg @% j[l4 -bfofF_ !))) )=$ @) *)) )=# !% ^)) )=@ !) $)) % )=! @)) ) ) ) @)!& @)!* @)!( @)@) @)@! @)@@ @)@# @)@$ @)@% @)@^ @)@& @)@* @)@( @)#) @)!& @)!* @)!( @)@) @)@! @)@@ @)@# @)@$ @)@% @)@^ @)@& @)@* @)@( @)#) ;|f]t M ljZj a}+s sd{rf/Lsf] u0fgf ;|f]t M ljZj a}+s sd{rf/Lsf] u0fgf pknlAw xfl;n ug]{ s'/f oyfy{k/s b]lvFbg }  . ;g\ @))) b]lv ef/t, 7"nf] ;+Vofsf] afÅo cfk|jf;gn] g]kfnsf w]/} j6f ;d:of ;dfwfg >Ln+sf / a+unfb]zn] nufgL cg'kftdf !) k|ltztsf] j[l4 xfl;n u/]sf] 5 . o;n] j]/f]huf/L 36fPsf] 5, yk pkef]unfO{ ;Ifd ul//x]sf 5g\ . t/, pgLx?nfO{ of] xfl;n ug{ qmdzM &, !$ / !% agfPsf] 5 / s/ ;+sngnfO{ a9fPsf] 5 . s/sf] pRr lge{/tf jif{ nfUof] . cfoftdf cfwfl/t z'Ns -o;n] clxn] ;Dk"0f{ /fh:jsf] cfwf lx:;f cf]u6\5_ ePsfn] klg s/ ;+sng a9]sf] xf] . ;fy;fy}, o;n] @*= nufgL / pTkfbsTj psf:g] yk a[xt\ /0fgLltn] Go"g cfo /fhgLlts ju{nfO{ cfkm\gf] lxtdf ;+/If0f lbg] Oltxf;af6 kl/jlt{t d'ns ' sf] cj:yfaf6 :t/f]Gglt dfq ;Dej u/fpg] 5}g, clkt' eP/ a[xt\ ;fj{hlgs ;]jfk|bfosf nflu sfd ug]{ bafanfO{ klg o:tf] pGgltnfO{ cem b|t ' agfpg klg ;3fpg] 5 . g]kfnsf] 36fPsf] 5 . af/Daf/ x'g] ;/sf/ kl/jt{g nfdf] ;dob]lv :yflkt cfly{s Oltxf;n] s] k|i6\ofPsf] 5 eg] b|t ' t/ cfly{s ljsf;nfO{ :yfoL cEof;h:t} ePsf] 5 . d'ns ' df ljut @$ jif{otf clxn] b'Oj { 6f k|dv ' c8\rgn] sd u/fPsf x'g\ M klxnf], sdhf]/ pTkfbsTj ePsf] ;/sf/ @%cf}+ xf] . o:tf] /fhgLlts cl:y/tfn] d'ns ' sf] / bf];f| ,] Go"g nufgL . o:tf] yk a[xt\ /0fgLltn] oL b'j} ;d:ofnfO{ ljsf;nfO{ afwf kf/]sf] 5 / gful/s e|ldt ePsf 5g\, h;n] ;Daf]wg u5{ . t;y{ ;DklQsf] ;~ro (the neoclassical growth yk cfk|jf;gnfO{ of]ubfg ul//x]sf] 5 -lrq v !%_ . ef/tsf] framework) / b|t ' t/ pTkfbsTj j[l4 (the endogenous growth /fhgLlts k|lqmofsf af/]df /fhg -@)!$_n] n]vs ] f 5g\ M framework) b'jd } f Wofg s]lGb|t x'g' cfjZos 5 . o:tf] cfly{s j[l4sf] /0fgLltn] pRr nufgL b/ Pjd\ dfgj k"h F Ldf j[l4 / gofF ‘o;/L rqm k"/f x'G5 . ul/a / lk5l8Psf ju{sf nflu /f]huf/L / k|ljlwsf] cjnDagnfO{ hf]8 lbg]5 . pbfx/0fsf nflu, ;fj{hlgs art ;fj{hlgs ;]jfx? pknAw u/fpg] cfjZostf /fhgLlt1x?nfO{ k5{ . b/df j[l4 x'gn ' ] yk nufgLdfkm{t\ ;Defljt cfDbfgLdf Psk6s j[l4 ul/ax?nfO{ ;+/IfsTj lbg / r'gfj n8\g ;Dej agfpg cfjZos u/fpF5 . o:tf gLltx?nfO{ ;"Id txsf gLltx?;Fu ;dfof]hg u/]/ /sd h'6fpgsf s'l6n /fhgLlt1x?nfO{ Jofkf/Lx? cfjZos k5{g  \. kmd{x?nfO{ yk pQd k|ljlw cjnDagdfk{mt\ vf]hd"ns x'g ;3fOof] ] x? / cln ;:tf] 7]Ssf lngsf nflu e|i6 Jofkf/Lsf nflu ;fj{hlgs ;|ft eg] To;af6 pTkfbsTjdf ;'wf/ Nofpg ;lsG5 . ;'wf/sf] o:tf] s'l6n /fhgLlt1 rflxG5 . /, /fhgLlt1nfO{ ul/a tyf pTkLl8tsf] dt kl/b[Zo, hxfF pTkfbsTj qmdzM ;g\ @)@) ;Dd )=% k|ltztn] j[l4 {u rflxG5 . k|To]s r'gfj If]q Pp6f rqmLo k/lge{/tfsf cfwf/df csf]; F x'g] u/L ;'wf/ x'G5 / nufgL s'ufp cg'kft ;g\ @)@! ;Dd ;'wf/ hf]l8Psf] x'G5, h;n] oyfl:ylt sfod /xg] s'/f ;'lglZrt u5{ .’ eP/ #) k|ltzt k'Ug] b]lvG5 -lrq v !#_ . cfly{s j[l4sf] ;Defljt k|jl[ Q cf};tdf $=# k|ltzt k'U5 / cem l56f], ;g\ @)@& ;Dddf #)= b]zsf] /fhgLlts k|a4 ' ju{n] ;fFlRrs} cfly{s j[l4 g} sd cfo d'ns ' sf] cj:yfaf6 :t/f]Gglt x'g ;S5 -lrq v !$_ . grfx];Dd Tof] d'ns ' sf] pGglt x'b F g} . gLltlgdf{tfx? / /fhgLlts ' ju{n] cfly{s j[l4nfO{ ;r]tgfk"js k|a4 { g} Pp6f ;du| nIosf ?kdf @(= tyflk, /fhgLlts k|lqmofaf6 l;h{gf x'g] c8\rgx?sf] k|i6 5gf]6 ug'k { 5{ . P;]df]Un' / /f]laG;gsf] -@)!@_ k|efjzfnL vf]hsfo{sf :jLsf/f]lQm cfjZostf 5. 7"nf] ;+Vofdf x'g] afÅo cfk|jf;gsf] dxÎjk"0f{ cGt/b[li6x?n] s] b]vfPsf] 5 eg], /fhgLlts ;+:yfx?sf] ;DejtM ;aeGbf k|lts"n kIf eg]s} o;n] gLltlgdf{tfx?nfO{ yk k|sl[ tn] cfly{s ;+:yfx?sf] k|sl[ tnfO{ lgwf{/0f u5{ . oL vf]hstf{x?sf] hafkmb]xL agfpg] / kl/0ffdd'vL ljsf; ug]{ bafaaf6 d'Qm /fV5 . ;+/rgfcg';f/ ‘===ul/a d'ns ' x? ul/a x'gs ' f] d"n sf/0f ltgsf pRr cf/f]x0fM dWocfo d'n'stkm{sf] lbzfdf 14 lrq v !% M /fhgLlts b'irqm dt r'gfj vr{ / ;+/IfsTj cfk|jf;g gful/s /fhgLlt1 Joj;fo ;Lldt ;fj{hlgs ;]jf ;/sf/L s/f/, ;+/If0f / ;:tf] / /f]huf/Ldf kx'Fr ;fj{hlgs ;|f]tsf] pknAwtf ;|f]t M ljZj a}+s sd{rf/L, /fhg -;g\ @)!$ df cfwfl/t_ . gf]6 M ;+s]t lrx\gx?sf] df]6fOn] ;DaGwsf] cfsf/nfO{ k|ltljlDat u5{ . gLltlgdf{tf / gful/sx?nfO{ c;n gLlt / ;+:yf s:tf x'G5g\ eGg]af/]df !=  gLltut c8\rgx? x6fpg]  M  Go"g nufgL / sdhf]/ pTkfbsTj;Fu hfgsf/L gePsfn] xf]Og .’ pgLx?sf cg';f/, ‘ul/a b]zx? ul/a ;DalGwt lg/Gt/sf r'gf}tLx?nfO{ ;Daf]wg ug{ g]kfnn] ;fj{hlgs 5g\ lsgeg], hf];uF zlQm 5, pgLx?sf -gLltut_ 5gf]6 o:tf] x'G5 ls nufgL sfo{qmdnfO{ pNn]vgLo 9+un] k'g;{/ + rgf ug{,' oftfoft To;n] ul/aL l;h{gf u5{ . pgLx? o:tf] unt sfd e'na; jf c1fgtf Joj:yfkg / b"/;~rf/h:tf If]qdf cfGtl/s ahf/sf] k|lt:kwf{nfO{ sf/0f xf]Og lgota; g} u5{g \ .’ -P;]df]un' / /f]laG;g, @)!@, k[i7 *^_ ;3g kfg{,' Joj;fo ug]{ nfut 36fpg' / cy{tGqnfO{ afFsL ljZj;Fu qmdzM PsLs[t ug{' cfjZos 5 . -cWofo ‘tLg’ x]gx \ {' f];_ #!= o;y{, g]kfn] g t Oltxf; g t e"uf]nnfO{ g} efUosf ?kdf lng' cfjZos 5 . g]kfnsf nflu jt{dfg Go"g cfly{s j[l4sf] r+un ' af6 @=  ] x?sf] lgdf{0f ug]  cfly{s j[l4sf gofF ;|ft { M hnljB'td \ f aflx/ lg:sg] klxnf] sbdsf ?kdf o;sf /fhgLlts g]tfx?n] 7"nf nufgL Nofpg' g]kfnsf nflu efUo kl/jt{gsf] cj;/ x'g oyfl:yltaf6 d'lQm kfpg] lgZro ug{ ;Sg'k5{ . oyfl:ylt abNg, ;Sg]5 . o;n] 7"nf] dfqfsf] gofF nufgL / pTkfbsTjdf ;'wf/ dfq ca ul/g] gofF ;+3Lo ;+ljwfg sfof{Gjogdfkm{t\ ;dfj]zL /fhgLlts Nofpg] 5}g, Hofnfb/nfO{ pNn]Vo?kn] psf:g tyf cfk|jf;gsf] ;+:yfx? / tbg'?ksf ;dfj]zL cfly{s ;+:yfx? lgdf{0f ug'{ k5{ . ultnfO{ cf+lzs?kn] pN6\ofpg / tNnf] t6Lo If]qsf pBf]ux?sf] To;sf nflu j[xt\ ;'wf/x? z'? ug'k { 5{ . g]kfnsf nflu of] c;Dej (downstream industries) k|lt:kwL{ Ifdtf j[l4 u/fpg] ;DefJotf sfd xf]Og, lsgeg] g]kfnn] o;cl3 klg sDtLdf b'Ok { 6s o:tf] k|of; ] f] 5 . -cWofo ‘rf/’ x]gx klg af]ss \ {' f];_ ul/;s]sf] 5 . b'j} pbfx/0f /fhgLlts j}wflgstfnfO{ sfo{kb | z{gLsf] j}wflgstfn] r'gf}tL lbg] cfjZostfåf/f k|l] /t lyof] . ;g\ !(*) sf] ] x?nfO{ k'gM;lqmo kfg]  #=  cfly{s j[l4sf ljBdfg ;|ft { M pTkfbsTj bzssf] cGTo / ;g\ !(() sf] bzssf] z'? Pjd\ ;g\ @))) bzssf] j[l4 ug{ / >dzlQmnfO{ cfly{s j[l4sf gofF ;|ft] x?df pkof]u ug{ z'?lt/ ;Ifd 6]Sgf]qm\ of6x?sf] ;d"xn] dxÎjk"0f{ ;'wf/ sfo{qmdx?nfO{ ;Sg] u/L s'ufpsf] PsltxfO / >dzlQmsf] b'Ol{ txfO c+z cf]u6\g] cl3 a9fpg] k|of;df ;xof]u u/] . oL b'j} cj:yfdf zlQms]Gb|x?n] oL {' f];_ s[lif If]qsf] ;'wf/ cfjZos 5 . -cWofo ‘kfFr’ x]gx ‘RoflDkogx?’nfO{ sfd ug]{ df}sf lbg' dxÎjk"0f{ ljifo lyof] . c;lhnf Jojwfgx? klg hgtfnfO{ yk ;d[4 agfpg] k|of;df tf]8g \ ;lsG5 . $=  { M  hgtfdf nufgL ug]  g]kfn hg;f+lVos ?kfGt/0fsf] of] k|ltj]bgsf] afFsL efun] s;/L Tof] ;Dej 5 eGg] b]vfPsf] 5 . (demographic transition) aLrdf 5 . Go"g k|hgg b/sf] kl/0ffd:j?k clxn] l;ª\uf] hg;+Vofdf sfd ug]{ pd]/sf] hg;+Vofsf] #@= of] b'irqmnfO{ eTsfpg Pjd\ d'ns ' leq /f]huf/L l;h{gf / >d lx:;f sfd gug]{ pd]/sf] hg;+Vofsf] lx:;feGbf 7"nf] 5 . hg;f+lVos lgof{taLr plrt ;Gt'ng sfod /fVg Pp6f Jojl:yt x:tI]fk nfe (demographic dividend) eg]sf] oxL xf] . of] hg;f+lVos nfe cfjZos 5 . :jtM ;anLs[t xFb ' } uPsf], g]kfnnfO{ Go"g cfo–pRr af6 kmfObf p7fpgsf nflu g]kfnL o'jfx?sf] ;Lkljsf;df nufgL cfk|jf;gsf] w/fkdf c8\sfO/fVg] cfofdnfO{ ;fgf x:tIf]kn] eTsfpg ug'{ ckl/xfo{ 5 . eljiosf nflu ;an / a9L lbuf] cfly{s j[l4sf] c;Dej 5 . g]kfnsf nflu Pp6f ;dli6ut cjwf/0ff rflxPsf] 5, h;n] dfu{ klxNofpgsf nflu yk dfgj k"h F L g]kfnsf] pTkfbgzLn lgDg sfo{x? u/]/ nufgLnfO{ a9f]Q/L / pTkfbsTjnfO{ b't | agfpg] 5 M {' f];_ k|of]udf nufpg' dxÎjk"0f{ 5 . -cWofo ‘5’ x]gx \ pRr cf/f]x0fM dWocfo d'n'stkm{sf] lbzfdf 15 pRr cf/f]x0fM dWocfo d'n'stkm{sf] lbzfdf 16 cWofo tLg yk nufgL / ;'wfl/Psf] pTkfbsTjnfO{ ;xhLs/0f ug{ c8\rgx? tf]l8g'k5{ k|lts"n cj:yf / gfh's gLltut 5gf]6n] Go"g nufgL tyf sdhf]/ pTkfbsTjnfO{ ;3fPsf] 5 ##= g]kfnsf] k|lts"n k|f/lDes cj:yfnfO{ c;xof]uL gLltut 5gf]6x?n] yk hl6n agfPsf] 5 . ljsf;sf cj/f]wx?sf] ;"rL lgs} nfdf] 5 M r'gf}tLk"0f{ ef}uf]lns jftfj/0f, F Lsf] bogLo cj:yf, Ps bzs nfdf] åGå / ;+ljwfgdf ;xdlt h'6fpg nfu]sf] nfdf] dfgj k"h ;dokl5 klg lg/Gt/sf] /fhgLlts cl:y/tf tyf u'0f:t/Lo k"jf{wf/ Pjd\ ;Dks{ dfWodx? (connectivity) sf] sdL, cflb . t/, g]kfnsf] cy{tGq clxn]sf] kl/l:yltdf cfOk'Ugsf nflu oL c8\rgx? lyP eGg] dfq b]vfpFbg } , v/fa gLltut 5gf]6x?sf sf/0f ;fk]IftM Go"g txsf] nufgL / sdhf]/ pTkfbsTj dfq xfl;n x'g ;s]sf] 5 eGg] klg bzf{p5 F  . #$= w]/} d'n'sn] nufgLsf nflu /sd h'6fpg /fli6«o art j[l4 u/]/ / lgof{t clej[l4 u/]/ cfly{s j[l4nfO{ b'|t agfPsf 5g\ . ;g\ @))^ df ljZj a}s + n] cfly{s j[l4 cfof]u (Growth Commission) v8f u/]sf] lyof], h;n] ljut @% jif{df & k|ltzteGbf a9L cfly{s j[l4;lxt, b|t ' sf ;femf rl/qx?nfO{ phfu/ ug]{ k|of; u/]sf] lyof] . ' ultdf j[l4 eO/x]sf d'ns ;g\ !(%) kl5 hDdf !# j6f d'ns ' n] o:tf] j[l4b/ xfl;n u/]sf lyP . & k|ltztsf] cfly{s j[l4 x'bF f jf:tljs s'ufp Ps bzsdf bf]Aa/ x'G5 . ;du|df x]bf{, o;sf cjojx?dWo] art / ;~ro, lbuf] ;fj{hlgs ljQ, :jf:Yo, lzIff / k"jf{wf/df ;fj{hlgs ;]jfx?sf] Joj:yf, ;an g]tT[ j, Jofkf/sf] v'nfkg / cy{tGqsf] lghLIf]q cled'vLs/0fsf] dxÎj b]lvG5 -6]an u !_ . 6]an u ! M b|'t cfly{s j[l4 ul//x]sf d'n'ssf gLltx?df ljBdfg kfFr ;femf cjoj lbuf] / cfly{s j[l4sf nflu ;femf cjojx? != a[xt\ cfly{s :yfloTj ;fdfGo d'bf| :kmLlt / lbuf] ;fj{hlgs ljQsf] ljz]iftf @= eljiotkm{sf] cled'vLs/0f pRr art / pRr ;fj{hlgs tyf lghL nufgL b/x?df k|blz{t #= ;an g]tT [ j / ;'zf;g nufgLsf lgodx?sf] :yfloTj, ;dfj]zL cfly{s j[l4df s]lGb|t / k|efjsf/L ;/sf/, hf] Jofjxfl/s 5 / o;sf ;Dk"0f{ gful/ssf] lxtsf nflu sfd u5{ eGg] b]lvPsf] 5  $= Jofkf/df v'nfkg 1fg cfoft ug{ / ljZj dfuaf6 nfe lng] rl/q ePsf] %= ahf/nfO{ k|fT] ;fxg ] ;fxg / ljs]Gb|Ls/0fdf plrt hf]8 lbOPsf] ahf/ k|fT ;|f]t M sldzg cg u|f]y P08 8]e]nkd]06, @))* pRr cf/f]x0fM dWocfo d'n'stkm{sf] lbzfdf 17 #% g]kfnn] a[xt\ cfly{s :yfloTjdf rflxF ;fk]IftM /fd|f] ' sf] t'ngfTds cj:yfn] s] Go"g cfly{s j[l4 g} xf] . w]/} d'ns u/]sf] 5, hals b|'tt/ cfly{s ljsf;sf c? cjoj b]vfpF5 eg], & k|ltzt cyjf Tof]eGbf a9L cfly{s j[l4b/ xfl;n pkl:yt 5}gg\. kof{Kt art x'b F fx'b F } klg g]kfnn] Go"g nufgL ug{ / x/]s !) jif{df jf:tljs s'ufp bf]Aa/ agfpg rfxg] u/]sf] 5, h;sf] kl/0ffd v/fa ;Dks{ dfWod / ckof{Kt pmhf{ d'ns' x?n] jflif{s art b/ s'ufpsf] sl/a #% k|ltzt sfod cfk"lt{h:tf k"jf{wf/x?sf] pNn]Vo dfqfsf] cefj :ki6} b]lvPsf] 5 /fVg' cfjZos 5 . -cjoj @_ . nlDaFbf] /fhgLlts cl:y/tf / v/fa zf;g k|0ffnLn] ;fj{hlgs nufgLnfO{ a]jf:tf u/]sf] 5 / lghL nufgLnfO{ ;d]t c= ;fj{hlgs nufgL k|lqmofdf ;'wf/ lg?T;flxt u/]sf] 5 -cjoj #_ . yk, pRr s/ Pjd\ eG;f/ b/ tyf jf:tljs ljlgdo b/sf] clwd"Nog k|jl[ Qn] g]kfnsf] #&= g]kfndf ;fj{hlgs nufgLsf] :t/ P]ltxfl;s?kn] g} lgof{tdf k/]sf] k|lts"n c;/nfO{ a9fPsf] / lgof{t sfo{kb | z{gLnfO{ cToGt Go"g /x]sf] 5 / Tof]eGbf klg lrGtfsf] ljifo, nufgLsf] ;doqmddf cem v/fa agfPsf] 5 -cjoj $_ . l;lG8s]6 / k|efjsfl/tf Go"g /xg' ePsf] 5 . g]kfnsf] ;fj{hlgs nufgL sf6]n { x?sf] pkl:yltn] cy{tGqsf] k|lt:kwL{ IfdtfnfO{ ;Lldt s'ufpsf] $ k|ltzt -cf};t_ /x]sf] 5, h'g blIf0f Pl;ofnL / Go"g u¥of] / gofF k|ljlwx?sf] cjnDag Pjd\ ;Lk clej[l4nfO{ ;':t cfo d'ns } f] cf};t eGbf tn xf] -lrq u !_ . -;fj{hlgs_ nufgL ' b'js agfof] . o;sf sf/0f pTkfbsTj Go"g eof] -cjoj %_ . b/ / k"h F L ;l~rtL b'j} Go"g x'b F f nufgLsf] ;LdfGt k|ltnlAw b/ (return on capital) pRr x'gk ' g]{ xf] . of] cj:yfdf w]/} cfof]hgfsf] a[xQ/ nufgLsf nflu ;fj{hlgs / lghL k|ltnlAw b/ pRr x'g] ck]Iff ul/G5 . t/, g]kfndf o:tf] eO/x]sf] b'j} If]qsf afwfx? km'sfpg'k5{ 5}g . clej[l4d'vL k"h F L k|ltnlAw cg'kft (incremental capital output ratio) n] b]vfPem}, + cyjf Ps OsfO{ yk pknlAw xfl;n ug{ cfjZos kg]{ k"h F Lsf] yk OsfO{sf cfwf/df u0fgf ubf{ of] #^= g]kfn;Fu pRr cfly{s j[l4b/ xfl;n ug{ cfjZos nufgL k|efjsf/L b]lvPsf] 5}g . csf]{ zAbdf, o:tf] cg'kft pRr art 5, tfklg o;n] Tof] artnfO{ k"0f{?kn] nufgLdf F f ;fj{hlgs nufgL yk ck|efjsf/L x'G5 . ;g\ @))! b]lv ;g\ x'b kl/rflnt ug{ ;s]sf] 5}g . ljut !^ jif{sf] cjlwdf /fli6«o @))& ;Dd o:tf] k"h F L k|ltnlAw cg'kft g]kfnsf] xsdf %=& lyof], art s'ufpsf] cf};tdf #$ k|ltzt /x]sf] 5 / cf};tdf @@ h'g lrq u @ df t'ngf ul/Psf d'ns ' x?dWo] ;aeGbf pRr xf] . F L lgdf{0fsf] b/nfO{ pl5g]sf] 5 . Pp6f Go"g k|ltzt /x]sf] k"h xfn}sf jif{x?df of] cg'kftdf ;'wf/ ePsf] 5}g / rf}wf}+ of]hgfsf] cfo d'ns' sf nflu of] c:jfefljs lsg xf] eg] w]/h } ;f] d'ns' cjwf/0ffkqn] cfj ;g\ @)!^ / @)!( sf aLr o:tf] cg'kft %=@ nufgLsf nflu cfjZos kg]{ dfqfdf kof{Kt /fli6«o art g} x'g] cg'dfg u/]sf] 5 . o;dWo] klg pmhf{sf xsdf of] cg'kft @( kl/rfng ug{ ;Ifd x'b } g\ . o:tf] Go"g nufgLn] lbg]] kl/0ffd Fg / oftfoftsf xsdf ( c:jLsfo{ tx /xsf]] 5 . lrq u ! M cf};t txsf] ;fj{hlgs nufgL, ;g\ @))&–@)!% lrq u @ M cf};t clej[l4d'vL k"“hL k|ltnlAw cg'kft, ;g\ @))!–@))& -s'ufpsf] k|ltzt_ -/]l;of]_ !* & !^ !%=$ ^ %=& k"FhL k|ltnlAw cg'kft ;fj{hlgs s'n k"FhL lgdf{0f -cf};t @))!–@))&_ !$ !@=* -cf};t @))!–@))&_ $=* $=& % !@ $=! !) (=% (=) $ * &=* @=* &=! # @=@ ^ %=% $=% @ !=% $ ! @ ) ) Olyof]lkof Go"g cfo sDaf]l8of nfcf]; ef/t blIf0f Pl;of a+unfb]z g]kfn g]kfn a+unfb]z leotgfd ef/t rLg sDaf]l8of d+uf]lnof ;|f]t M ljZj ljsf; ;"rsf+s ;|f]t M tu'rL / nf]xrfxL, @)!$ pRr cf/f]x0fM dWocfo d'n'stkm{sf] lbzfdf 18 6]an u @ M g]kfndf cfof]hgf k"/f x'g w]/} nfdf] ;do nfU5 cfof]hgf ;DkGg ug{ cfjZos ;aeGbf nfdf] ;do nfu]sf] If]qx? cf};t ;do cjlw -jif{_ cfof]hgf -jif{_ ;8s !@ #! l;+rfO !^ #* pmhf{ ( !* ;|f]t M /fli6«o of]hgf cfof]u, @)!^P / @)!^aL sf] jflif{s ljsf; of]hgfx? -cfj ;g\ @)!&_df cfwfl/t ljZj a}+s sd{rf/Lx?n] u/]sf] u0fgf #*= g]kfnsf] ;fj{hlgs nufgL k|lqmofdf k|efjsfl/tf ;g\ @)!@ df ‘/fli6«o uf}/jsf cfof]hgf’x? klg z'? u¥of] . b]lvPsf] 5}g h;n] ubf{ pTkfbgzLn ;DklQ / k"jf{wf/x? To;kl5sf k|To]s ;/sf/n] oL uf}/j cfof]hgfx?nfO{ ;dod} lbg c;kmn ePsf] 5. d'ns ' sf] cfly{s k|0ffnL k"hF Lut ;DkGg ug]{ 3f]if0ff u/] . t/, oL /fli6«o uf}/jsf cfof]hgfx? klg ah]6sf] Go"g vr{ x'g] bL3{ /f]uaf6 kLl8t 5 . o:tf] vr{ gx'g] cf};tdf c? cfof]hgfeGbf b|t ' ultdf sfof{Gjog ePsf 5}gg\ . /sd xfn}sf jif{x?df kFh " Lut ljlgof]hgsf] cf};tdf &) b]lv cf};tdf ltgdf klg !# jif{bl] v sfd eO/x]sf] 5 . /, ;aeGbf *) k|ltzt;Dd /xg] u/]sf] 5 . cfof]hgf l9nf x'g,] ck"/f] /xg] k'/fgf] sfd eO/x]sf cfof]hgf ;g\ !(** df z'? ePsf] klg 5 . / nfut Pjd\ tf]lsPsf] eGbf a9L ;do nfUg]h:tf lgs}j6f r'gf}tL /x]sf 5g\ . /fli6«o of]hgf cfof]usf] jflif{s ljsf; of]hgf #(= ljZj a}s + n] tof/ kf/]sf] d"Nof+sg dfksx? nufP/ ;"rLaf6 ;+slnt cfof]hgfx?sf] cg';f/, cfof]hgfx? cf};tdf x]bf{ k|efjsf/L ;fj{hlgs nufgL k|0ffnLsf nflu * j6f !! jif{bl] v rln/x]sf 5g\ . ;8s, l;+rfO / pmhf{ cfof]hgfx?sf] ‘geO{gx'g]’ ;+:yfut rl/qx?dWo] g]kfndf Pp6f klg 5}g . yk If]qut ljZn]if0f ubf{ o:tf] cfof]hgfsf nflu nfUg] ;do ljZj a}s + sf] ;fj{hlgs nufgL k|0ffnL (public investment qmdzM !@, !^ / ( jif{eGbf a9L x'g] u/]sf] b]lvPsf] 5 -6]an u management, kLcfO{Pd) sf] o:tf] d"Nof+sg dfks /fhf/fd cflb @_ . of] ;do cem a9\g5 ] lsgeg] of]hgf cfof]usf] b:tfj]hdf -@)!)_n] tof/ u/]sf x'g  \ . d'ns' x?n] ;fj{hlgs nugLnfO{ pNn]v ePadf]lhd g} oL cfof]hgfx? k"0f{?kn] / ;dod} ;DkGg cfly{s j[l4 / ljsf;nfO{ ;xof]u k'¥ofpg ;Sg]u/L ;'lglZrt x'g] ;Defjgf 5}g . s]xL ;8s / l;+rfO cfof]hgfx?df ljut ug{ cjnDag ug'k { g]{ * dxÎjk"0f{ ;+:yfut rl/q o;df klxrfg #) jif{bl] v sfd eO/x]sf] 5 . w]/} j6f /fli6«o:t/sf cfof]hgfn] ul/Psf 5g\ . g]kfndf cg'kl:yt /x]sf o:tf rl/qx?df ef]Ug'k/]sf ;d:of ;Daf]wg ug{sf nflu ;/sf/n] cfly{s jif{ dxÎjk"0f{ sfo{x? h:t}– cfof]hgf 5gf]6 / ah]6 ljlgof]hg, 6]an u # M ljleGg d'n'ssf] ;fj{hlgs nufgL Joj:yfkg (Public Investment Management) sfo{k|bz{gL kLcfO{Pdsf r/0fx? g]kfn leotgfd sDaf]l8of rLg a|flhn a]nf?; lrnL cfo/Nof08 sf]l/of { g/ nufgL dfu{ lgb]z cfof]hgf 5gf]6 cf}krfl/s cfof]hgf { N k"jd " of+sg { N k"jd " of+sgsf] :jtGq ;dLIff cfof]hgf 5gf]6 / ah]6 ljlgof]hg cfof]hgf sfof{Gjog cfof]hgf ;dfof]hg ;'ljwf ;~rfng d"Nof+sg ;|f]t M /fi6«ut ;fj{hlgs nufgL Joj:yfkg -kLcfO{Pd_ k|ltj]bgx? gf]6 M uf9f /ftf] -kLcfO{Pdsf] cl:tTj gePsf]_ b]lv uf9f xl/of] -pQd cEof;_ ;DdnfO{ /ªsf] dfqfn] bzf{pF5  pRr cf/f]x0fM dWocfo d'n'stkm{sf] lbzfdf 19 cfof]hgf sfof{Gjog, lgdf{0fsf qmddf cfof]hgfx?sf] ;dfof]hg cfOPncf] @))(, Pd;L;L @)!$, cf]8LcfO{ @)!$, ljZj a}s + / cfof]hgf ;DkGg ePkl5sf d"Nof+sgnufot 5g\ -o;sf] lj:t[t @)!%_ . ;g\ !((& b]lv @))& aLr ePsf] lx+;fTds ljb|fx ] ljj/0f cg';r" Ldf lbOPsf] 5_ . kl/0ffd:j?k, g]kfndf ;fj{hlgs ;fdfGotM cfly{s j[l4 / ljsf;sf nflu d'Vo afws lyof] . tyflk, nufgLsf] sfo{kb | z{gL s]xL ljsf;zLn / ljsl;t d'ns ' x?;Fu åGå cGTo ePkl5 klg Jofks?kn] ck]Iff ul/Psf] zflGtnfen] t'ngf ubf{ cToGt sdhf]/ b]lvG5 -6]an u #_ . d"t{ ?k lnPg . of] cj:yf oyfy{df @) jif{ nfdf] /fhgLlts ;+qmd0f / cl:y/tfdf ?kfGtl/t eof], h'g cfhko{Gt sfod $)= kl/0ffdx? x]bf{ ;fj{hlgs nufgL Joj:yfkg k|0ffnLs} 5 . kl/0ffd:j?k g]kfndf lghL If]qsf] nufgLsf] tx p;sf] af/]df s]xL egL xfNg eg] ufx|f] 5 . g]kfnsf] ;fj{hlgs ;dsIfLx?sf] t'ngfdf Go"g sfo{kb| z{gLo'Qm 5 -lrq u #_ . nufgL k|lqmof ljlw Pjd\ k|lqmofx?sf] lj/f]wfef;k"0f{ ;lDd>0f h:tf] 5 . Psftkm{ cf}krfl/s ljlwx? 5g\ eg] csf]t { km{, ltg} $@= o;sf cltl/Qm, /fhgLlts cl:y/tfn] x/]s 7fp“sf, ljlwx? g} sfof{Gjog k|lqmofsf ljleGg txdf k|oQ ' m g} gePsf] ;a} k|sf/sf Joj;fox?nfO{ k|efj kf/]sf] 5. lghL nfdf] ;do eO;s]sf] 5 . dflyNnf txx?df pQ/bfloTjsf] If]qsf Joj;foLx?n] bzf{Psf b'Oj { 6f ;aeGbf c;lhnf afwfdf cf}krfl/s ;+:yfut ljefhg / k|lqmofut Joj:yfnfO{ ;xof]u /fhgLlts cl:y/tf / ljB'td F /x]sf 5g\ \ f ePsf] ;Lldt kx'r x'g] k|0ffnLx?sf] Joj:yf 5, h;n] cfof]hgf ljsf; Pjd\ of]hgf -ljZj a}s+ @)!#P_ . ;j]I{ f0f ul/Psf ;Dk"0f{ Joj;fox?dWo] tyf nufgLnfO{ lgb]l{ zt u5{ . sfof{Gjog txdf gofF vl/b P]g em08} %) k|ltztn] /fhgLlts cl:y/tfnfO{ d'Vo afwssf tyf sfg"gnufot cfof]hgf sfof{Gjog cg'udgnfO{ lgb]l{ zt ?kdf pNn]v u/] . /fhgLlts cl:y/tfn] ;a} 7fpFdf /x]sf ;a} ug]{ ;+:yfx?sf] cl:tTj 5 . k|i6} 5, olt x'b F } klg cf}krfl/s F fx'b cfsf/sf Joj;fox?nfO{ k|efj kf/]sf] 5 . oLdWo] klg ;fgf tyf ljlwx?nfO{ cEof;sf qmddf kfngf ul/g] u/]sf] 5}g . of]hgf, demf}nf Joj;fox? ;aeGbf uDeL/?kn] k|efljt ePsf 5g\ . gLlt / ah]6 th'd { faLr k"0f{?kn] ;DaGw ljR5]bsf] cj:yf 5 . 1ftJo 5, o:tf Joj;fon] g]kfnsf] lghL If]qsf Joj;fox?dWo] cfof]hgfsf] k|f/lDes ;j]I { f0f / k|fyldsLs/0fx? k|efjsf/L () k|ltzt lx:;f cf]u6\5g\ -lrq u $_ . 5}gg\, vr{cg';f/sf] nfe x'g] s'/f lglZrt ug{ ;ls+Psf] 5}g . cfof]hgfx?sf] k|fljlws 5gf]6 / k|f/lDes ;j]I { f0fsf nflu ljljw $#= nufgL a9fpgsf nflu /fhgLlts :yfloTj d'Vo zt{ If]qx?n] pgLx?sf cfkm\g} lgb]l{ zsf ljsl;t ug{ ;S5g\ . oL xf], lsgeg] o;n] hf]lvd 36fpF5 / lghL k"FhLdf ck]lIft k|lqmofx?df Ps?ktf 5}g / Tof]eGbf klg dxÎjk"0f{, o:tf] nfenfO{ a9fpF5. ;fy}, o;n] k"h F Lsf] nfutnfO{ klg sd k|lqmof nufgL lg0f{osf] cleGg c+u aGg] u/]sf] 5}g . dWosfnLg u5{ . e|i6frf/ 36fpg] / s/f/ Pjd\ ;DklQ clwsf/x?nfO{ vr{ ;+/rgfsf] ;du| vfsfsf] cefjdf /fli6«o of]hgf cfof]u k|efjsf/L?kn] ;Ddfg ug{sf nflu /fhgLlts :yfloTj cfjZos Pjd\ cy{ dGqfnosf] ;dfgfGt/ sfo{zn } Lsf sf/0f k"h F Lut / 5 . ;fy}, ;'wfl/Psf s/ gLlt / s/ k|zf;gdfkm{t\ s/sf b/x? rfn" ah]6nfO{ sfo{ut / k|lqmofut lx;fan] vl08t u/]sf] 5 . (tax rate) 36fP/ Pjd\ s/sf cfwf/x? (tax base) lj:tf/ u/]/ o;n] ubf{ clws jifL{o nufgL / ;DklQx?sf] dd{t;Def/ Pjd\ oftfoft / lah'nLh:tf k"jf{wf/df nufgL ug{ klg /fhgLlts ;~rfngsf] jflif{s cfjZostfaLrsf] 5'6s ] f] ;DaGwn] oyfjt\ :yfloTj cfjZos 5 . oL ;a} kxnn] lghL If]qsf] k"h F Laf6 k|fKt lg/Gt/tf lbPsf] 5 . vr{ ug]{ lgsfox?— ;fy}, s]Gb|Lo of]hgf x'g] nfesf] ck]IffnfO{ a9fpF5 . /fhgLlts :yfloTj / cfGtl/s Pjd\ nufgL lgsfox?— jf:tljs cy{df s8f ah]6 cg'zf;gsf] ;b\efjn] d'ns' ut hf]lvd (country risk) nfO{ 36fpF5, h;sf cEof; ub}g { g\ . oL d'2fx? af/Daf/ ;/sf/ kl/jt{g ePsf sf/0f Aofhb/ Pjd\ k"h F Lsf] nfut klg sd x'G5 . lghL If]qsf] sf/0f cem hl6n x'b} uPsf 5g\ . o;n] ubf{ ;/sf/sf ;a} tx nufgL nfdf] ;dosfn;Dd cfslif{t ul//xgsf nflu ck]lIft -dGqfno, ljefu / lgsfox?_sf] k|fyldstf l56f]l56f] kl/jt{g pRr nfe / k"h F Lsf] Go"g nfutsf] ;lDd>0f dxÎjk"0f{ x'G5 . /, x'g] / Ifdtf ljsf;, k"h F Lut ah]6 of]hgf;lxtsf] bL3{sfnLg nfe tyf nfutsf] km/sdf j[l4 ePkl5 nufgL k|j4{g x'G5 / jf:tljs b"/b[li6df nufgL ug{ xtf]T;flxt x'g] cj:yf 5 -ljZj To;n] cfly{s j[l4nfO{ a9fpF5 . + @)!&P_ . a}s yk pTkfbsTj j[l4sf nflu afwfx? cf= a[xQ/ lghL nufgLsf] cfk|jfx x6fpg cfjZos 5 $!= lghL If]qsf] nufgLsf nflu /fhgLlts cl:y/tf d'Vo $$= b|'t, bL3{sfnLg cfly{s j[l4sf nflu b|'tultd} afws /x]sf] 5 . :jfefljs xf], xfn}sf jif{x?df ul/Psf pTkfbsTj j[l4 x'g' cfjZos 5 . nufgLdfq}sf] j[l4n] } 6f cWoogn] gLltut clglZrttf cfpg] u/L x'g] /fhgLlts w]/j ;Defljt s'ufpsf] txnfO{ j[l4 ug{ ;S5, t/ nufgLsf] 36\bf] cl:y/tfnfO{ lghL If]qsf] nufgL / cfly{s j[l4sf nflu d'Vo ;LdfGt nfe (diminishing marginal returns, o;sf] cy{ yk Ps afwssf ?kdf klxrfg u/]sf 5g\ -P8LaL, 8LPkmcfO8L, OsfO{ nufgLn] yk pTkfbsTj t lbG5 t/ 36\bf] b/df_ x'g] ePsf]n] pRr cf/f]x0fM dWocfo d'n'stkm{sf] lbzfdf 20 lrq u # M cf};t txsf] lghL nufgL, ;g\ @))&–@)!% lrq u $ M ;a} Joj;fox? /fhgLlts cl:y/tfn] uDeL/?kn] k|efljt ePsf 5g\ -s'ufpsf] k|ltzt_ -;du| k|ltzt_ cToGt uDeL/ d'Vo ;fdfGo Go"g #) lghL s'n k"FhL lgdf{0f c8\rg c8\rg c8\rg c8\rg @% -@))&–@)!% cf};t_ @% @$ ;fgf Joj;fo &) @@ @! @! @) !* !^ !% dWod Joj;fo ^# !) % ) 7"nf Joj;fo %) ef/t blIf0f Pl;of a+unfb]z nfcf]; Olyof]lkof g]kfn Go"g cfo ) @) $) ^) *) !)) ;|f]t M ljZj ljsf; ;"rsf+s ;|f]t M ljZj a}+s @)!#P / ljZj a}+s sd{rf/Lsf] u0fgf pTkfbsTjdf -k|lt OsfO{ nufgLaf6 yk dfqfsf] pTkfbsTj_ cfpg] $%= kl/0ffdtM s'n j:t' pTkfbsTj j[l4b/nfO{ a9fpg' ;'wf/n] dfq bL3{sfnLg cfly{s j[l4b/nfO{ cufl8 a9fpg ;S5 . g} cfly{s j[l4sf] d'Vo r'gf}tL /x]sf] 5. xfdLn] cWofo of] cy{zf:qL ;f]nf] -!(%&_sf] dxÎjk"0f{ k|f/lDes vf]hn] lbPsf] ‘b'O{’df cfly{s j[l4 df]8nsf cEof;x?dfkm{t\ bzf{Pem}+ cGtb[l{ i6 xf], h;n] bL3{sfnLg k|ltJolQm s'ufpsf] d'Vo c+z s'n pTkfbsTj j[l4nfO{ qmlds?kn] ultdfg agfpFbf, ;g\ @)!& j:t' pTkfbsTjsf] clej[l4af6 cfpF5 eGg] kQf nufP . g]kfnsf] / @)@! aLrdf clxn]sf] z"Go k|ltztsf] txaf6 )=% k|ltzt P]ltxfl;s pTkfbsTj j[l4b/sf] pknAw eP;Ddsf tYof+sx?n] k'¥ofpFbf cyjf k|ltjif{ )=! k|ltzt ljGb'n] dfq} j[l4 ug{ ;Sbf o:tf] j[l4b/ ;Dk"0f{ P]ltxfl;s sfnel/ z"Gosf] jl/kl/ /x]sf] / klg d'n'ssf] dWo cfo :t/f]Gglt $ b]lv % jif{n] l56f] x'g]5 . ;du| cfly{s j[l4df s'g} of]ubfg glbPsf] b]vfpF5 . dfgj k"hF Lsf] ;fdfGo cy{df eGbf pTkfbsTj j[l4 hlt l56f] x'g ;Sof], j[l4, /f]huf/L / >d zlQm ;xeflutfsf] b/x?;Fu pTkfbsTj ck]lIft s'ufp j[l4sf nIox? k|fKt ug{ sd nufgL /sd j[l4b/nfO{ ;dfof]hg u/]/ x]bf{ o:t} b]lvG5 -lrq u %_ cfjZos kb}{ hfG5 . lrq u % M g]kfndf pTkfbsTj a[l4, ;g\ !(&) b]lv ;g\ @)!% -k|ltzt kl/jt{g_ j:t' pTkfbsTj j[l4 j[l4b/ k|j[lQ -PrkL lkmN6/_ !) * v'nfkgcl3sf] o'u ;'wf/sf] o'u åGå /fhgLlts ;+qmd0f ^ $ @ ) –@ –$ –^ –* –!) !(&) !(&% !(*) !(*% !(() !((% @))) @))% @)!) @)!% ;|f]t M ljZj ljsf; ;"rsf+s / ljZj a}+s sd{rf/Lx?sf] u0fgf gf]6 M PrkL = xf]l8«s–k|];s6 lkmN6/ pRr cf/f]x0fM dWocfo d'n'stkm{sf] lbzfdf 21 $^= pTkfbsTjdf ;'wf/ Nofpgsf nflu n3'pBd :t/sf @_ 7"nf kmd{x? a9L pTkfbgzLn 5}gg\ . @) hgfeGbf sd gLltx? (micro-level policies) cfjZos k5{, h;sf sf/0f sfdbf/ ePsf] kmd{ @) hgfeGbf a9L sfdbf/o'Qm kmd{df sDkgLx?n] vf]h cg';GwfgnfO{ a9fjf lbP/ pTkfbsTj F f pTkfbsTj pNn]Vo?kn] a9\5, tfklg of] ?kfGtl/t x'b a9fpg ;S5 . cfly{s j[l4sf nflu tyfslyt tNnf] txsf ' m x'b ;DaGw ;a} cfsf/sf juL{s/0fdf k|oQ }  . jf:tjdf, Fg kmd{x?n] vf]h cg';Gwfg, ;Lksf] :t/f]Gglt / b|t ' pTkfbsTj ;g\ @)!@ df @ ;o %) b]lv $ ;o (( sfdbf/ ePsf j[l4 Nofpg ;Sg] vfnsf, gofF k|ljlw cjnDag ug{sf nflu kxn kmd{x?sf] pTkfbsTjsf] :t/ -b/_ @) hgfeGbf sd lnFbf k|/] s aGg] gLltx?nfO{ n3':t/sf gLltsf ?kdf kl/eflift sfdbf/ ePsf kmd{x?sf] eGbf klg tn lyof] . ul/Psf] 5 . d'ns ' x?n] k|ljlwsf] pRr tx -k|ljlwsf] ;LdfnfO{ cem ljx+ud agfpg] u/L_sf] vf]h ug{ ;S5g\, cyjf eO/x]sf #_ ahf/df zlQmzfnL /x]sf kmd{x? plQs} pNn]Vo?kn] sd k|ljlwx?sf] cg'z/0f of pkof]uL sfof{Gjog ug{ ;S5g\ . oL pTkfbgzLn 5g\ . kl/0ffdx?n] laqmLsf] c+z / kmd{sf] b'jv} fnsf vf]h jf pkof]ux?sf] af/Daf/ k|of]un] cfly{s j[l4nfO{ pTkfbgzLntfaLr pN6f] ;DaGw ePsf] b]vfPsf 5g\ . csf]{ lgwf{/0f u5{, hals o:tf vf]hdf gfkmf clej[l4 ug{ rfxg] zAbdf 7"nf] ahf/ zlQm ePsf kmd{ -o;sf] laqmLsf] c+z sDkgLx?sf ultljlwn] lg/Gt/tf NofpF5 . csf]{ zAbdf, pRr ahf/df 7"nf] ePsf]_sf] g} pTkfbsTj sd 5 . j:t' pTkfbsTj j[l4b/ ;hu / k|efjsf/L Joj;fox?dfkm{t\ g} ;~rflnt x'G5 . o;sf cltl/Qm, Pp6} If]qleq /x]sf >d c= alxd'{vL cled'vLs/0f / afXo k|lt:kwf{ / k"h F Lsf] Go"g pTkfbsTj x'g] kmd{af6 pRr pTkfbsTj x'g] kmd{df rnfodfg x'g] k|jl[ Qn] pTkfbsTj j[l4nfO{ cufl8 a9fpg $(= a[xt\ pTkfbsTjsf nflu ljZj ahf/;Fu PsLs[t ;lsG5 . ha o:tf] ;+oGqn] ck]Iff u/]cg'?k k|efjsf/L?kn] x'g' Pp6f zlQmzfnL dfWod x'g ;S5 . tfklg, g]kfnsf] sfd ub}g { — pbfx/0fsf nflu, k|lt:kwf{df cfOkg]{ Jojwfgsf o; If]qsf] sfo{kb | z{gL v:s]sf] 5 . g]kfnsf] ;fgf] cy{tGq, sf/0f— cy{tGq ;|ft ] x?sf] unt ljlgof]hgsf] l;sf/ x'G5 . h'g ;+;f/sf ;aeGbf b|t ' ultdf ljsl;t eO/x]sf ahf/x?;Fu t'ngfTds?kn] glhs 5, o;sf] cfly{s j[l4sf] ;DefJotf $&= oBlk, pTkfbsTj j[l4 ug]{ gLltx?sf] sfof{Gjog ug'{ cfkm"nfO{ If]qLo / ljZjahf/;Fu PsLs[t ug{ kfPsf] ;kmntfaf6 k|foM /fhgLlts?kn] r'gf}tLk"0f{ x'G5 . cfly{s j[l4sf nflu nfe lng] ;Fu ;DalGwt x'g5 ]  . tyflk, g]kfnn] o;sf] ;dLktfaf6 cfjZos n3' cfwf/x?nfO{ tL gLltx?sf ?kdf a'em\g ;lsG5, nfe lng ;s]sf] 5}g / cj:yf emg\emg\ v/fa x'b F } uPsf] 5 . h;n] -s_ afÅo cled'vLs/0f, / -v_ cy{tGqleqs} k|lt:kwf{ ;g\ !(() sf] bzsdf Jofkf/df g]kfnsf] ;du| v'nfkg p;sf] -cjoj #, $ / %, 6]an ] ;flxt u5{ . Jojxf/df ' u ! df_ nfO{ k|fT h:t} ljsf;sf] cj:yf ePsf d'ns ' x?sf] ;dfg g} lyof] -o'uf08f o;sf] cy{ d'ns ' nfO{ cfGtl/s / afÅo b'j} k|lt:kwf{sf nflu cyjf a+unfb]zsf] v'nfkgsf] :t/;Fu egf}_ +  . t/, To;kl5 of] v'Nnf ug'{ cyjf ck|efjsf/L jf c;kmn sDkgLx?nfO{ ;+/If0f cf};teGbf tn em¥of] . Jofkf/ / s'ufp cg'kft ;g\ !((% / / cg'bfg glbg' xf] . oL k|foM sfof{Gjog ug{ lgs} sl7g s'/fx? !((( sf] aLrdf cf};tdf %( k|ltzt /x]sf]df ;g\ @)!) / ;g\ x'g,\ lsgeg] oL ljifon] t'?Gt} lglxt :jfy{ cyjf cy{/fhgLlts @)!$ sf aLrdf 36]/ $^ k|ltzt eof] . ;f]rsf d'2fsf] ?k lnG5g\ . %)= j:t' Jofkf/sf] sfo{k|bz{gL ljz]ifu/L bogLo 5 . $*= pknAw tYof+sx?n] s] k|i6\ofpF5 eg] g]kfnsf ;g\ !(() sf] bzsdf j:t'x?sf] lgof{t j[l4b/ cf};t k|ltjif{ af≈o cled'vLs/0f ePsf kmd{x? a9L pTkfbgzLn 5g\. !( k|ltzt /x]sf]df Tof] 36]/ kl5Nnf] bzsdf )=^ k|ltzt ;g\ @))& / @)!@ df ul/Psf] ‘pBf]ux?sf] /fli6«o u0fgf’ k|ltjif{df cf]ln{of] . clxn] g]kfnsf] j:t' lgof{tsf] ax'bf c+z (manufacturing census) / ‘ljZj a}s + /f]huf/ ljZn]if0f’ -ljZj s[lif / Go"g d"No clej[l4 ePsf pTkfbgx?df s]lGb|t 5 . a}s + @)!& P_ n] g]kfnsf] pTkfbgzLn kmd{x?sf af/]df lgDg To:tf j:t'sf] ljZjahf/ c+z 36\bf] 5 / lgof{t s]xL ;Lldt cGt/b[li6x? k|:t't u/]sf] 5 . d'n'sx?df dfq eO/x]sf] 5 . lgof{tdf cfPsf] dGbL -;g\ @)!# df ;g\ @))) sf] eGbf lgof{t !) k|ltztn] dfq a9]sf] lyof]_ !_ ljut jif{x?df lg/Gt/?kn] lgof{t ug]{ kmd{x? ;aeGbf r'lnFbf] ultdf a9]sf] cfofteGbf 7Ls ljk/Lt lbzfdf 5 . pTkfbgzLn tyf ljb]zL :jfldTjsf kmd{x? :jb]zL lghL oxL cjlwdf cfoft $ u'0ffn] a9\of] . o;sf] kl/0ffd, Jofkf/ jf ;fj{hlgs :jfldTjsf kmd{x?eGbf a9L pTkfbgzLn 3f6f eofjx?kdf a9\bf] 5 -xfn}sf jif{x?df of] s'ufpsf] #) b]lvPsf 5g\ . lrGtfhgs ljifo s] eg], lgof{td"ns k|ltzt 5_, h'g d'Vou/L ljk|]if0f cfoaf6 wflgPsf] 5 . kmd{x?sf] c+z ;g\ @))& df !# k|ltzt /x]sf]df ;g\ @)!@ df 36]/ ^ k|ltzt x'g cfof] . pRr cf/f]x0fM dWocfo d'n'stkm{sf] lbzfdf 22 lrq u ^ M g]kfnsf] s/–eG;f/ b/ pRrdWo] k5{ lrq u & M ;g\ @))^ otf jf:tljs k|efjL ljlgdo b/ pNn]Vo?kn] a9]sf] 5 -k|ltzt_ -OG8]S; gDa/ @)!) Ö !))_ -#–dGy d'leª Pe/]h, cd]l/sL 8n/ !) nfv_ #) !@) &)) ljk|]if0f -bfofF_ @% !!% @% ^)) pkef]u dWod k|fylds !!) %)) @) !( !* !& !)% $)) !% !)) jf:tljs ljlgdo b/ !# !! #)) (% !) * * @)) () % *% !)) ) *) ) ef/t a+unfb]z dn]l;of g]kfn >Ln+sf yfONof08 leotgfd rLg hgj/L–)^ hgj/L–)& hgj/L–)* hgj/L–)( hgj/L–!) hgj/L–!! hgj/L–!@ hgj/L–!# hgj/L–!$ hgj/L–!% hgj/L–!^ hgj/L–!& ;|f]t M ljZj Jofkf/ ;+u7g ;|f]t M ljZj a}+s sd{rf/Lsf] u0fgf %!= k|lt:kwL{ Ifdtfdf cfPsf] Ifo / s/ gLltx?sf] lgof{t ;fwgx? Nofpgfn] kmd{x?nfO{ lj:tfl/t, ljljwLs[t / :t/f]Gglt k|lts"ntfsf sf/0f lgof{tnfO{ afwf k'u]sf] 5 . a[xt\ x'g d2t u5{ . Jofks ljljwtfsf pTkfbgsf ;fwgx?df kx'r F cfly{s b[li6sf]0faf6 x]bf{, ljk|]if0f cfon] 7"nf] Jofkf/ 3f6fnfO{ x'gfn] kmd{x?nfO{ k|fljlws ;Ldfdf afFWb}g, pgLx?nfO{ gofF wfGg d2t u/]sf] 5 / hgtfnfO{ ul/aLaf6 aflx/ lgsfn]sf] pTkfbgx?df ljljwLs/0f ug{df d2t u5{ / pTkfbgsf] u'0f:t/ 5 . tyflk, To;n] jf:tljs ljlgdo b/nfO{ clwd"Nog ug{df yk psf:g klg ;3fpF5 . tyflk, g]kfndf cfoftdf nfUg] /fh:j ;3fPsf] 5 . ljZn]if0fx?n] /]ld6\ofG; cfodf !) k|ltztn] cToGt} pRr 5 -lrq u ^_, h;n] cfoftnfO{ dxFuf] agfpF5 / j[l4 x'Fbf bL3{sfnLg jf:tljs ljlgdo b/df )=% k|ltztsf] d'ns }  . ' sf] lgof{tnfO{ klg nfe lbFbg clwd"Nog x'g] ;+s]t u/]sf 5g\ . ljut @) jif{otf ljk|]if0f l56f] ultn] a9]sfn] o;sf] bafa jf:tljs ljlgdo b/df %#= k|ToIf j}b]lzs nufgL cfslif{t ug'{ / To;nfO{ lsg klg k/]sf] 5 eg], o;sf] k|jfx gu0o dfqfsf] dfq 5}g lg/Gt/tf lbg' dxŒjk"0f{ 5, t/ of] k|lqmofnfO{ nufgL -lrq u &_ . k|sf/fGt/n], jf:tljs ljlgdo b/ clwd"Nog x'Fbf afws gLltx?n] c;lhnf] kf/]sf] 5. j}bl] zs :jfldTjsf cfoftnfO{ d2t / lgof{tnfO{ afwf k'U5 . ;DejtM o;sf] c;/ kmd{x? d'ns ' sf ;aeGbf a9L pTkfbgzLndWo]df kg]{ x'gfn] Go"g d"No, Go"g gfkmf b/ ePsf pTkflbt j:t'x?df ;aeGbf k|ToIf j}bl] zs nufgL gofF k|ljlw, Jofj;flos cEof;x? / w]/} k5{, h;sf] 7"nf] c+z g]kfnn] lgof{t ug]{ j:t'x?sf] ahf/;Ddsf kx'r F j[l4sf nflu dxÎjk"0f{ 5g\ . t/, g]kfnn] k|ToIf ;d"xdf 5 -kf]r'{un / lhNhf]les, @)!&_ . cem} cy{/fhgLlts j}bl] zs nufgL cToGt Go"g leqfpg ;s]sf] 5, h'g s'ufpsf] b[li6sf]0fn] a9\bf] cfoftn] cfsif{s s/sf cfwf/x? lgdf{0f u5{ Ps k|ltzteGbf sd 5 . g]kfn of] dfldnfdf o; If]qsf ;fgf / cy{tGqnfO{ cfoft s/df a9L lge{/ x'g pS;fpF5 . o;n] e"kl/j]li6t d'ns ' x? -e'6fg / nfcf];_ eGbf klg k5fl8 k/]sf] lgof{tlj/f]wL kIfw/tfnfO{ yk a9fpF5, lsgeg] lgof{tsx? 5 . nufgLnfO{ c;/ ug]{ ;d:ofx?sf cltl/Qm ck|i6 gLlt, sRrfkbfy{sf ?kdf cfofltt, dWod kl/isf/sf j:t'x? hl6n k|lqmof / ckof{Kt nufgL ;xhLs/0fsf sf/0f klg k|ToIf (intermediate goods) dfly e/ k5{g\ . j}bl] zs nufgL cfxt ePsf] 5 . j}bl] zs nufgL leqgdf k/]sf afwfx?df Joj;fonfO{ ljb]zL :jfldTj lbgdf /x]sf ;Ldf, %@= lgof{t aflx/af6 cfofltt pTkfbgsf ;fwgdf d'Vo?kn] If]qut nufgL ;Ldf, nfdf] gsf/fTds ;"rL / u}/;fem]bf/L nufgL lge{/ 5 . g]kfn c? d'ns ' x? h:t}, ax';f+lVos lgof{tsx?sf k4ltdf nufOPsf] aGb]hnufot 5g\ . d'ns ' leq k|ToIf j}bl] zs nflu cxd\ dflgg] pTkfbgsf ;fwg -j:t' / ;]jf b'j_ } cfoft u5{ . nufgL leqfpg c;/ ug]{ c? dxÎjk"0f{ afwsx?df /sd lkmtf{ () k|ltzteGbf a9L g]kfnL lgof{tsx? lgof{thGo pTkfbgsf n}hfg] emGeml6nf] k|lqmof / j}bl] zs sfdbf/ egf{ ug{ cfjZos nflu cfjZos sRrfkbfy{ cfoft u5{g,\ h'g cy{tGqsf] cfsf/ nfdf] cf}krfl/stf /x]sf 5g\ . k|ToIf j}bl] zs nufgLsf o:tf x]// ] sf] kjf{x gu/L k|lt:kwL{ d"Nodf pTkfbgsf ] :jfefljs} xf] . ;|ft c8\rgsf/L gLltx?n] j}bl] zs nufgL cfsif{0f ug{ d'ns ' n] pRr cf/f]x0fM dWocfo d'n'stkm{sf] lbzfdf 23 ;fdgf ul//x]sf r'gf}tLx?nfO{ yk hl6n agfPsf] 5 / ltgsf] %&= g]kfnsf] ;jf]{Rr cbfntn] ;fj{hlgs oftfoftdf k'glj{rf/ cfjZos 5 . ldn]dtf]df d"No sfod ug]{ sf6]{N; -l;lG8s]6x?_ cGTo ug{'sf ;fy} o;cl3sf k|lt:kwf{ lj/f]wL Jojxf/nfO{ k|j4{g cf= cy{tGqsf b'j} kIf, cfGtl/s / ljb]zL k|lt:kwL{ Ifdtf ug]{ Joj:yf Pjd\ ;Demf}tfx?nfO{ cdfGo 3f]lift ug{ ljut sdhf]/ 5 Ps bzsdf tLgj6f km};nf ;'gfPsf] 5 -dfO{ l/klAnsf, ;g\ @)!^_ . o:tf pbfx/0fdf #( j6f :yfgLo 6«s Joj;foLsf %$= cy{tGqleq k|lt:kwf{sf] cefj /x]sf kof{Kt k|df0fx? ;+u7gsf] l;lG8s]6 5, h;n] g]kfnsf $ ;o @( dfGotfk|fKt 5g\ . cfoftdf nfUg] pRr /fh:j / j}b]lzs nufgLdf ?6df rNg] #) xhf/ 6«s rnfpg] lgod to u5{ . tyflk, ljBdfg afwfx?n] cfGtl/s kmd{x?nfO{ af⋲o k|lt:kwf{af6 o:tf ;+u7gx? o;/L lgod sfg"g nfb\g] j}wflgs k|flwsf/o'Qm 5]s]sf] 5 . ljleGg If]qsf Joj;fo÷kmd{x?aLrsf] k|lt:kwf{ ] , ;g\ @)!%_ . To:t}, g]kfn /fli6«o oftfoft lgsfo xf]Ogg\ -kf}8n klg ;Lldt 5 . dfly pNn]v ePem}+ pTkfbgzLn If]qsf ;aeGbf Joj;foL dxf;+3cGtu{t btf{ ePsf @ ;o %) j6f a; ;~rfns 7"nf -@%) b]lv $(( sfdbf/ ePsf_ / 7"nf] laqmL dfqf ePsf ‘;ldltx?’ 5g\, h'g jf:tjdf sf6]n { x? x'g\ / ltgn] x/d"Nodf, kmd{x? ;aeGbf sd pTkfbgzLn x'g] k|jl[ Q 5 . of] cldNbf] ;/sf/nfO{ / gofF a; sDkgLx?nfO{ wDsfP/ a; ;~rfngsf tYo xf] / ;Defljt k|lt:kwf{ lj/f]wL Jojxf/ klg . lsgeg], ?6df Psflwsf/nfO{ ;+/If0f ug{ rfxG5g\ -g]kfnL 6fOD;, 7"nf kmd{x?df cfly{s lj:tf/o'Qm pTkfbg (economies of scale), ;g\ @)!&_ . cem, ;g\ @))) df oftfoft Joj:yf ljefun] nufgLdf ;xh kx'r F , a9L ;Lko'Qm sfdbf/ / ;an Jofj;flos jfudtL c~rn -sf7df8f}l+ :yt_df gofF 6\ofS;Lx?sf] btf{ aGb cEof;x? cjnDag ug]{ k|jl[ Q x'g] x'b F f pgLx?sf] pTkfbsTj u¥of] / o;nfO{ cem} v'nfOPsf] 5}g . ;g\ @))& otf oftfoft ' g]{ xf] . a9L x'gk Joj;foL dxf;+3 / tLgj6f ;DalGwt ;/sf/L lgsfoaLr ePsf] ;Demf}tfcg';f/, s'g} klg oftfoft ;]jfsf] ?6kld{6 lbgsf nflu %%= gofF kmd{x?nfO{ Joj;fodf k|j]z ug{ / cl:tTj dxf;+3sf] l;kmfl/z cfjZostf k5{ ->]i7, ;g\ @)!%_ . arfpg sl7g 5 . ljZj a}+sn] ;g\ @))* / ;g\ @)!@ df b'O{ r/0fsf Jofj;flos ;j]{If0f (enterprise survey) u/]sf] %*= 6«s Joj;foLx?sf] l;lG8s]6n] ;du| cy{tGqdf lyof] . o;sf tYof+sx?n] kmd{sf] cf};t cfo' -;~rfng jif{_ pNn]Vo nfut yK5 . kf}8n ] -@)!%_n] u/]sf] u0fgfcg';f/ ;g\ oL b'O{ ;j{]If0faLr (=^ af6 !$=@ jif{ k'u]sf] b]vfP . cf};t @)!$ df o:tf l;lG8s]6x?sf sf/0f s'n ufx{:Yo pTkfbgsf] cfo'df b]lvPsf] -$=^ jif{_ km/sn] oL b'O{ ;j]{If0faLr JotLt @=^ k|ltzt cfly{s k|efjsfl/tf gi6 (deadweight loss) cyjf ePsf] ;donfO{ b]vfpF5 . o;n] s] ;+s]t u5{ eg], of t gofF cy{tGqdf yk af]em l;h{gf u¥of] . yk s'/f, of] cWoogn] ;g\ kmd{x? lgdf{0f g} ePgg\, cyjf ltgLx?sf] cl:tTj arfpg] @)!$ df /x]sf] sf7df8f}+ pkTosfleqsf] (=! k|ltzt d"No :kmLlt b/ cToGt} Go"g 5 . pTkfbgzLn sDkgLx?sf ;Gbe{df klg b/ (inflation rate) df !! k|ltzt eGbf a9L l;lG8s]6x?sf o:t} lgisif{ k|efjL x'G5, h'g oL b'O{ ;j]{If0faLr !!=$ jif{af6 sf/0f a9]sf] cg'dfg ul/Psf] 5 -To;f] eGg'sf] cy{, olb l;lG8s]6 a9]/ !%=^ jif{ k'Uof] . oL b'j} kl/b[Zon] gjk|j]zL Joj;fox?n] gePsf] eP d"No :kmLlt b/ * k|ltzt dfq ;Lldt x'GYof]_ . pNn]Vo dfqfsf] Jojwfg a]xf]/]sf] b]vfpF5, h'g k|sf/fGt/n] k|lt:kwf{ lj/f]wL cEof; xf] . %(= o;n] Jofkf/nfO{ klg c;/ u5{, lsgeg] g]kfnsf] w]/} lgof{t ug]{ If]qn] c? pTkfbgzLn If]qx?sf] bfFhf]df %^= oftfoft If]qdf ;aeGbf k|i6 b]lvg] k|lt:kwf{ oftfoft ;]jfsf] a9L k|of]u u5{ . pbfx/0fsf nflu, vfB lj/f]wL ljlgod / cEof;x? ljBdfg 5g\ . ;Dks{sf] k|zf]wgo'Qm lgof{tdf k|o'Qm x'g] pTkfbgsf ;fwgdf #( k|ltzt Pp6f dxÎjk"0f{ lg0ff{os dflgg] oftfoft ;]jfsf ;a} pkIf]qn] lx:;f oftfoft ;]jfsf] 5 . To:t}, 5fnf lgof{tdf oftfoft ;]jf xflgsf/s / k|lt:kwf{ lj/f]wL cEof; ;fdgf ul//x]sf 5g\ . #) k|ltzt / k]okbfy{ Pjd\ ;"lt{hGo lgof{tx?df oftfoft oftfoft, pBf]usf Jofj;flos ;+3x?n] k|lt:kwf{nfO{ ;Lldt ;]jfsf] k|of]u @% k|ltzt 5 . o;sf] 7Ls ljk/Lt ;du| ug]{ w]/}j6f cEof; ul//x]sf 5g\ . vf;u/L, ;fd"lxs d"No pTkfbgzLn Joj;fodf oftfoft ;]jfsf] k|of]u ;]jf;fwgsf lgwf{/0f ;aeGbf Jofks k|s[ltsf] k|lt:kwf{ lj/f]wL Jojxf/ ?kdf ( k|ltzt dfq 5 . k|fylds s[lif pkhx?sf] lgof{t b]lvPsf] 5 . o:tf] cEof;nfO{ If]qLo 6«s tyf a; l;lG8s]6x?, klg 3/]n' oftfoft ;]jfdf clws lge{/ 5 . lsgeg], o;df xjfO{ oftfoft ;+3x? / 6\ofS;L ;]jf k|bfos ;+3nufotsf $% k|ltzt oftfoft ;]jf pTkfbg ;fwgsf] ?kdf k|of]u x'G5 w]/} Jofj;flos Pjd\ Jofkfl/s ;+3n] sfof{Gjog ul//x]sf -xnj]u, ;g\ @)!^_ . 5g\ . pRr cf/f]x0fM dWocfo d'n'stkm{sf] lbzfdf 24 ^)= jt{dfg k|lt:kwf{ gLltsf] ;+/rgf k|To'Tkfbs 5, lsgeg] ;+/rgfn] vf; ahf/ -s[lif pTkfbgx?_ cyjf sf/f]af/sf k|sf/ o;n] Joj;fo ubf{sf] nfutnfO{ a9fPsf] 5, hals -sRrf kbfy{sf] vl/b_h:tf w]/j } 6f ckjfb ;dflji6 u/]sf] k|lt:kwf{lj/f]wL Jojxf/nfO{ /f]Sg ;xfos ePsf] 5}g. 5, hals ;r]tgf—;/sf/L gLltx?sf sf/0f plAhg] pTkfbg klxnf], k|efjsf/L dh{/ -ufEg]_nfO{ lgodg ug]{ lgodljlgodsf] ahf/sf] k|lt:kwf{lj/f]wL ultljlw /f]Sg] ;+/rgfnfO{ ;an agfpg] cefjdf k|efjsfl/tf j[l4 ug]{ k|jl[ Qsf ufEg] jf lng] -dh{/ cyjf sbdx?—sf] cefj 5 . t];f| ,] If]qut txdf ljBdfg k|lt:kwf{;Da4 PlSjlh;g_nfO{ lgif]w u5{ / o;n] ubf{ ;fgf Joj;fox?dfly d'2fx?n] ;dfg txsf] w/ftnnfO{ lauf/]sf] 5 / o;n] vf;u/L cgfjZos sf/f]af/ nfut nflbG5 . bf];f| ,] k|lt:kwf{ sfg"gsf] oftfoft ;]jf;Da4 k|fjwfgx?nfO{ c;/ u/]sf] 5 . pRr cf/f]x0fM dWocfo d'n'stkm{sf] lbzfdf 25 pRr cf/f]x0fM dWocfo d'n'stkm{sf] lbzfdf 26 cWofo rf/ cfly{s j[l4sf gof“ ;|f]tx?sf] lgdf{0f ^!= g]kfndf kof{Kt dfqfdf pknAw ePsf] t/ clxn];Dd laNs'n} bf]xg x'g g;s]sf] ;|f]t hnzlQm xf]. g]kfn kof{Kt dfqfdf hn;|ft ] k|bQ 5, h;n] cfGtl/s ljB't\ cfjZostfnfO{ k"/f ug]{ / If]qLo pmhf{ ahf/df dxÎjk"0f{ v]nf8L aGg ;Dej agfpg] b'j} sfd ug{ ;S5 . g]kfnsf] hnljB't\ Ifdtf *$ xhf/ d]ufjf6 /x]sf] / h;dWo] $# xhf/ d]ufjf6 cfly{s?kn] pkof]u ug{ ;lsg] cg'dfg ul/Psf] 5 . clxn] of] cfly{s?kn] ;DefJo Ifdtfsf] @ k|ltzteGbf sd dfq bf]xg x'g ;s]sf] 5 . ^@= ;fy;fy}, g]kfnsf 3/kl/jf/ / Joj;fox? pmhf{sf] cefj v]lk/x]sf 5g\ . g]kfnsf] &% k|ltzt hg;+Vofsf] dfq} ljB'td \ f kx'rF 5 / 3/kl/jf/ Pjd\ Joj;fox? pNn]Vo dfqfsf] ljB't\ s6f}tL -;g\ @)!%÷!^ sf] lxpFb] ;'Vvf df};ddf k|ltlbg !& 306f;Dd_ / jif{el/ g} pmhf{sf] v6g (rationing) a]xf]5g {   F gx'gn \ . Joj;foLx?n] pmhf{df e/kbf]{ kx'r ' fO{ pgLx?sf] Joj;fo ;~rfngsf] ;aeGbf 7"nf] / lbuf] Jojwfgsf ?kdf lnPsf 5g\ / g]kfnsf] pTkfbgzLn If]qsf] ljut Ps bzsotfsf] sfo{kb ' sf/0f | z{gL gfh's /xg'df klg of] k|dv /x]sf] 5 . ^#= k|s[ltk|bQ k|r'/tfnfO{ x]bf{ g]kfnsf] ljB't\ If]qn] cfly{s j[l4nfO{ a9fpg, ul/aL 36fpg / d'n'sdf ;d[l4 ;fem]bf/L ug{ ;DefJo kl/b[Zo b]vfpF5 . ljB't\ If]qn] pmhf{sf] cfGtl/s dfunfO{ e/kbf],{ ;:tf] / ;kmf?kn] k"lt{ dfq ug{] 5}g, clkt' k|of]u eP/ ar]sf] o:tf] hnljB'ts \ f] lgof{taf6 cfDbfgL klg ug{ ;Sg]5 . l5d]sL d'ns ' x?df ;anLs[t If]qLo ljB't\ ahf/ lgdf{0f u/]/ blIf0f Pl;of If]qnfO{ g} pmhf{ ahf/sf ?kdf PsLs[t u/L ljB'ts \ f] lgof{t Jofkf/ ;Dej agfpg ;lsG5 . ^$= xfn}sf pbfx/0fx?n] b]vfPem},+ dfu Joj:yfkg / yk cfoftnfO{ ldnfP/ pmhf{ pknAwtfnfO{ pNn]Vo?kn] ;'wf/ ug{ ;lsG5 . gf]eD ] a/, @)!^ otf g]kfn ljB't\ k|flws/0fn] ljB'ts + nfa4 kl/jt{gx? sfof{Gjogdf NofPsf] \ f] dfu Joj:yfkg ug]{ tl/sfdf z[v 5 . ;fy}, xfn;fn} lgdf{0f ePsf] ;Ldf jf/kf/ xfOef]N6]h k|;f/0fnfOgn] cfofltt pmhf{sf] yk pknAwtfnfO{ ;3fPsf] 5 . jt{dfgdf g]kfnsf] hl8t Ifdtf * ;o d]ufjf6 5, hals ;'Vvf df};ddf gbLx?sf] hn:t/ 36\g] x'gfn] ljB't\ pTkfbg $ ;o %) d]ufjf6 dfq x'G5 . dfu / cfk"lt{aLrsf] km/s Joj:yfkg ug{ g]kfnn] clxn] ef/taf6 sl/a # ;o %) d]ufjf6 ljB't\ cfk"lt{ ul//x]sf] 5 . d'ns \ f] dfu, clwstd ! xhf/ @ ;o %) d]ufjf6 jl/kl/ ' df ljB'ts /x]sf] 5 . ljB't\ k|flws/0fn] ck'u $ ;o @) d]ufjf6 lah'nL pRr ef/ x'g] a]nf pmhf{–;3g pRr cf/f]x0fM dWocfo d'n'stkm{sf] lbzfdf 27 pBf]ux?df ljB't\ s6f}tL u/]/ pknAw u/fO/x]sf] 5 . o;n] hnljB't\ cfof]hgfx?— gf}–gf};o d]ufjf6 Ifdtfsf dflyNnf] } 6f k|dv ubf{ g]kfnsf] w]/j ' zx/df cfdhgtfsf nflu x'g] ljB't\ s0ff{nL / c?0f # cfof]hgf, h;sf] cg'dflgt nfut sl/a @ s6f}tLdf tLj| sdL cfPsf] 5 . hals, pBf]ux?n] lbgsf] @$ ca{ cd]l/sL 8n/ /x]sf] 5, ltgsf] cfof]hgf ljsf; ;Demf}tf 306fdf @) 306f dfq lah'nL kfPsf 5g\ . -kL8LP_df x:tfIf/ eof] . tyflk, ;g\ @)!% sf em6\sfx? -e"sDk / gfsfaGbL_n] ltgLx?sf] tof/Ldf clxn] g} Ps jif{ ^%= hnpmhf{sf] ljsf;n] g]kfnsf] cfly{s l:ylt g} kl/jt{g l9nf eO;s]sf] 5 . o;sf cltl/Qm @ xhf/ * ;o d]ufjf6 ug{ ;Sg] 7flgPsf] 5, tyflk o:tf] ljsf;sf] cfly{s Ifdtf / % ca{ @) s/f]8 cd]l/sL 8n/ cg'dflgt nufgL ePsf k|efjsf] olsg kl/df0f lgwf{/0f ug]{ cWoogx? yf]/} dfq c? tLgj6f 7"nf cfof]hgf cGt/f{li6«o sDkgLx?åf/f ljleGg ePsf 5g\ . gofF hnljB't\ cfof]hgfx?sf] ljsf;, 6«fG;ld;g r/0fsf] tof/Lsf] qmddf 5g\ . oL cfof]hgfx? lgof{td'vL nfOgx? / ljt/0f ;~hfn lj:tf/ ubf{ x'g] nufgLn] lgdf{0fsf] dflgPsf 5g\ . t/, oLdWo] s'gs } f] klg cfly{s ;|ft] h'l6;s]sf] ;dodf cfly{s j[l4nfO{ a9fpg], cy{tGqleqsf] pTkfbsTjnfO{ cyjf lgdf{0f z'? ePsf] 5}g . oL afx]s sl/a # xhf/ # ;o ^% lg/Gt/ ljB't\ cfk"lt{dfkm{t\ ;'wf/ ug]{ / gofF cfly{s /fh:jsf d]ufjf6sf -sl/a ^ ca{ $) s/f]8 cd]l/sL 8n/ nufgL;lxt_ ] x? l;h{gf ug]{ ;DefJotf /xG5 . clxn] cg'dfg ul/Psf, ;|ft 7"nf ljB't\ cfof]hgfx? lghL tyf ;fj{hlgs sDkgLx?dfkm{t\ hnljB'td \ f x'g] nufgLsf] dfqf x]bf{ jflif{s vr{ a9\gs ' f ;fy} ljsf;sf] ljleGg r/0fdf /x]sf 5g\ . o;sf cltl/Qm ! g]kfnsf] cy{tGqsf] cfsf/sf] t'ngfdf eljiodf 7"nf] /fh:j ;o !& j6f ;fgf ljB't\ cfof]hgf -sl/a ! ca{ $) s/f]8 cfDbfgL x'gt ] k{m ;+st ] u5{ . cg'dfg u/]cg'?k nufgLx?n] cd]l/sL 8n/ nufgL / !% ;o d]ufjf6 Ifdtfsf_ :yfgLo lghL d"t? { k lnof] eg] clxn]sf] ljk|i ] f0f / ljsf; ;fem]bf/x?af6 k|fKt sDkgLx?n] ljsl;t ub}{ 5g\, h;sf] cfly{s ;|ft ] h'l6;s]sf] ;xfotfdf pNn]Vo dfqfsf] yk k"h F L cfk|jfx x'g] ;Defjgf 5 . 5 / lgdf{0fsf] ljleGg r/0fdf 5g\ . ;a} ldnfP/ clxn] sl/a o;n] a[xt\ cfly{s Joj:yfkgdf r'gf}tLx? l;h{gf ug's { f ;fy} * xhf/ % ;o d]ufjf6 Ifdtfsf cfof]hgfx? !% ca{ cd]l/sL cy{tGqsf ljljw If]qaLrsf] pTkfbg k|0ffnLnfO{ k'gM ;dfof]hg 8n/ nufgL;lxt ljsf;sf] qmddf /x]sf 5g\ . csf]{ zAbdf, ug]5{  . tyflk, ck]lIft kl/jt{gsf] JofkstfnfO{ cg'dfg nufpg] of] nufgL /sd s'ufpsf] em08} *) k|ltzt xf] . ;fy}, of] s'g} 7f]; tYof+sLo cfwf/x? ljBdfg 5}gg\ . g t d'Vo cfly{s dfqfsf] ljB't\ pkef]Qmf;Dd k'Ugsf nflu gofF 6«fG;ld;g nfOg kIf -e]l/oan_x?df kg]{ k|efjaf/] g} s'g} Jojl:yt ljZn]if0f agfpg / ljt/0f k|0ffnLnfO{ :t/f]Gglt ug{ cltl/Qm !! ca{ ^) ePsf] 5 . o;y{ oxfF xfdLn] ‘sDKo'6a ] n hg/n OlSjlnla|od s/f]8 cd]l/sL 8n/a/fa/sf] nufgL cfjZos k5{ . hDdfhDdL df]8n ] ’ k|of]u u/]/ 7Ls ToxL ljZn]if0f ug]{ p2]Zo /fv]sf 5f}+ cfufdL !# jif{df ;f9] @^ ca{ cd]l/sL 8n/ a/fa/sf] nufgL -sf]i7 3 ! x]gx {' f];_ . hnljB't\ If]qdf x'gk ' g]{ b]lvG5, h'g s'ufpsf] !@) k|ltzt cyjf jflif{s cf};tdf s'ufpsf] ( k|ltzt yk nufgL cfjZos hnpmhf{df ;Defljt nufgLsf kg'{ xf] -6]an 3 !_ . If]qx?sf] klxrfg ^&= clxn]sf] kl/l:yltdf clwsf+z nufgL ljb]zaf6 cfpg] ^^= ;g\ @)#) ;Dddf s'ufpsf] !@) k|ltzt;Dd k'Ug] ck]Iff ul/Psf] 5 . :jfefljs?kn] of] nufgL g]kfnsf nflu lgs} cg'dfg ul/Psf hnljB'tsf nufgLx? tof/Lsf ljleGg 7"nf] h:tf] b]lvG5 / of] nufgL s;/L xf]nf eGg] k|Zgx? p7\5g\ g} . r/0fdf /x]sf 5g\ . ;g\ @)!$ df b'Oj { 6f 7"nf lgof{td'vL cfof]hgf ljsf;stf{x?n] klxrfg u/]sf] k|To]s cfof]hgfsf] nfut 6]an 3 ! M hn;|f]t If]qdf klxrfg ePsf ;Defljt nufgLx?, ;g\ @)!& b]lv ;g\ @)#) Ifdtf d]ufjf6 nufgL nfut ;+Vof -d]jf_ -cd]l/sL 8n/, ca{df_ 7"nf lgof{td'vL hnljB't\ cfof]hgfx? % #,&)) &=@ 7"nf cfGtl/s hnljB't\ cfof]hgf -!)) d]jfeGbf 7"nf]_ ( #,#^% ^=$ ;fgf cfGtl/s hnljB't\ cfof]hgf -!)) d]jfeGbf ;fgf]_ !!& !,%)^ !=$ k|;f/0f / ljt/0f — — !!=^ hDdf — *,%&! @^=% ;|f]t M ljZj a}+s sd{rf/Lsf] cfof]hgf:t/sf] tYof+sdf cfwfl/t u0fgf gf]6M hnljB't\ cfof]hgf, — n] ljj/0f pknAw gePsf] hgfpF5 . pRr cf/f]x0fM dWocfo d'n'stkm{sf] lbzfdf 28 6]an 3 @ M hn;|f]t If]qdf ;Defljt nufgLsf nflu klxrfg ePsf cfly{s ;|f]t, ;g\ @)!& b]lv ;g\ @)#) cd]l/sL 8n/, ca{df s'n nufgLsf] c+z ljb]zL @!=@ *) k|ltzt nufgL ;xeflutf @=# ( k|ltzt C0f !*=( &! k|ltzt cfGtl/s %=# @) k|ltzt nufgL ;xeflutf )=$ @ k|ltzt C0f !=# % k|ltzt ;/sf/L #=& !$ k|ltzt hDdf @^=% !)) k|ltzt ;|f]t M ljZj a}+s sd{rf/Lsf] cfof]hgf:t/sf] tYof+sdf cfwfl/t u0fgf / nufgL ;+/rgf x]//] hnljB'td ] x?nfO{ \ f x'g] k"0f{ nufgLsf ;|ft ;+/rgf oyfjt\ /xG5, hxfF s'ufpsf] em08} *@ k|ltzt c+z PsLs[t ug{ ;lsG5 . o;sf] 7"nf] cfsf/nfO{ x]bf{ ax'bf /sd ljb]zL pkef]usf] /x]sf] 5 . cfly{s j[l4sf] k|jl[ Q clxn]sf] cfwf/ /]vfsf] ] x?af6 cfpg] ck]Iff ul/g' cfZro{hgs xf]Og . bf];f| ] 7"nf] ;|ft kl/b[ZoeGbf k|If]lkt ;dofjlw -;g\ @)!&–@)#)_ clnslt of]ubfg k|;f/0f tyf ljt/0f k|0ffnL ljsf; ug{sf nflu kl/k"/s dfly cf};tdf #=^ k|ltzt k'U5 / of] P]ltxfl;s cf};t $ nufgLsf ?kdf ;/sf/sf tkm{af6 x'g] ck]Iff 5 -6]an 3 @_ . k|ltztsf] bL3{sfnLg j[l4b/eGbf yf]/} tn / -cWofo ‘b'O’{ df k|:t't_ oyfjt\ cj:yfsf] # k|ltzt j[l4b/sf] cfwf/ /]vfeGbf ;f9] @^ ca{ cd]l/sL 8n/sf] k|Zg— dfly xf] . of] km/ssf] sf/0f s] xf] eg], xfdLn] xfn} b]lvPsf] hnljB't\df x'g] nufgLn] s] nfe ljB't\ pknAwtfdf ePsf] ;'wf/n] s'n j:t' pTkfbsTjdf cfpg] lbg ;Snf< + . nufgL, s'ufpsf] c+zsf] ?kdf ;'wf/nfO{ ‘df]8l] nª’ u/]sf 5f}  ;dfg /lx/xg] 5 . To:t}, ;/sf/L ah]6 3f6f, C0f / rfn' vftf ^*= g]kfnsf] cy{tGq cfwf/e"t cyjf clxn]sf] h:t} ;Gt'ng klg s'ufpsf] c+zsf] ?kdf ;dfg /xg]5 . tyflk, ;fdfGo kl/b[Zodf s:tf] b]lvPnf eGg] b[li6af6 xfdLn] o;cl3sf] lgisif{ km]l/b}g+  / g]kfn Go"g cfo d'ns' af6 :t/f]Gglt cWoog z'? u¥of}. + of] kl/b[Zodf cy{tGqsf] P]ltxfl;s x'g cem} ;kmn gx'g ;S5 -6]an 3 #_ . sf]i7 3 ! M ljljw gLltut ljsNkx?sf] cfly{s c;/ ljZn]if0f M u0fgfof]Uo ;fdfGo ;dlaGb' (computable general equilibrium) cjwf/0ff ljleGg If]qx?sf] cfly{s ultljlw / hg;+Vofsf ljleGg lx:;fdf …l/sl;{e 8fOgflds sDKo'6a ] n h]g/n OlSjlnla|od df]8n] Ú xf] . of] ;+/rgfut ;'wf/x?n] w]/j } 6f ck|ToIf Pjd\ hl6n c;/x? kf5{ . ;LhLO{ \ nfnfO{ ;dLs/0fx?sf] ;d"x;“u cjwf/0ffn] l:y/ ;dlaGb'sf] Pp6f z[ªv df]8n ] o:tf c;/x?sf] d"Nof+sg ug{sf nflu Ps k|efjsf/L cf}hf/sf] \ , h;n] x/]s ;dofjlwdf 5gf]6 ul/Psf a[xt\ cfly{s e]l/Panx? hf]85 ?kdf ljsl;t ePsf] 5 . ;LhLO{ df]8n ] n] a[xt\ cfly{s ;"rsf+sx?sf] “ L ;l~rtL / pTkfbsTj_nfO{ cBfjlws u5{ . -hg;+Vof j[l4b/, k"h Pp6f z[ªv\ nfdfly g} x'g] ;'wf/sf c;/x?nfO{ ;d]6g \ ;S5 . o;n] gLltx?sf ljt/0ffTds c;/x?nfO{ klg ;d]65 \  . lsgeg], gLltx?sf] ] sf] k|of]hgsf nflu g]kfnsf] cfjZostfcg'?ksf] ;fdflhs n]vf of] df]8n ;kmn sfof{Gjog / To;sf] lbuf]kg ltgLx?sf] ljt/0ffTds c;/sf] Dofl6«S; ljsl;t ul/Psf] xf] . of] Dofl6«S; tYof+sLo Ps?ktf ;dflji6 pko'Qm Joj:yfkgdf lge{/ u5{ . ljleGg ;/sf/L gLlt / cfly{s ePsf] PsLs[t ;+/rgf xf], h;n], j:t'x?sf] dfu tyf cfk"lt{, ;fwgx?sf] em6\sfx?sf] cy{tGqel/ g} kg]{ c;/x? d"Nof+sg ug{sf nflu ;Defljt cfo, /sd :yfgfGt/0f vr{ / art Pjd\ nufgL ;Da4 tYof+sx?sf] kl/b[Zox?sf z[ªv\ nfx?sf] n3'?k agfP/ of] df]8n ] k|of]u ul/Psf] 5 . cGt/;DaGw b]vfp“5 . of] Dofl6«S;sf nflu cfjZos tYof+s cfj ;g\ @)!@÷!# sf] /fli6«o n]vf, cfj ;g\ @))$÷)% sf] cfk"lt{ tyf k|of]hg of] cEof;sf nflu agfOPsf] g]kfn ;LhLO{ df]8n + sf] ljZjJofkL ] ljZj a}s 6]anx?, cfj ;g\ @)!)÷!! sf] kfl/jfl/s ;j]I { f0f / cfj ;g\ @)!@÷!# ;LhLO{ df]8n ] -lnª\sh ] _sf] Psn /fi6« df]8n] af6 lnOPsf] xf] . of] sf] cGt/f{li6«o Jofkf/ vftfaf6 lnOPsf] 5 . of] ljZn]if0fsf nflu pmhf{sf df]8n] nfO{ @& j6f j:t' pTkfbg ug]{ @& j6} If]qx? ;dflji6 ;fdflhs If]qsf] dxTjnfO{ b[li6ut u/L g]kfn ljB't\ k|flws/0fsf] jflif{s k|ltj]bgx?af6 n]vf Dofl6«S; (social accounting matrix) ;“u ;dfof]hg ul/Psf] 5 . of] k|fKt hfgsf/Lx?nfO{ g]kfnsf] phf{ If]q klxrfgsf nflu Dofl6«S;df cnUu} Dofl6«S;df # j6f pTkfbgsf ;fwg / k|To]s pkef]u bzf+zsf] k|ltlglwTj klxrfg ul/Psf] 5 . k|flws/0fsf k|ltj]bgx?nfO{ ljB'td \ f lbOg] cg'bfgsf] x'g] u/L !) 3/kl/jf/nfO{ ;dfj]z ul/Psf] 5 . g]kfnsf] ;LhLO{ df]8n ] cGt/lglxt cfotg cg'dfg ug{ klg k|of]u ul/Psf] 5 . pRr cf/f]x0fM dWocfo d'n'stkm{sf] lbzfdf 29 6]an 3 # M a[xt\ cfly{s kl/b[Zosf] cfwf/ /]vf, ;g\ @)!& b]lv @)#) (baseline macroeconomic scenario) @)!& @)!* @)@% @)#) cf};t @)!&—#) jf:tljs s'ufp j[l4 -k|ltzt kl/jt{g_ %=) $=* #=% #=! #=^ nufgL -s'ufpsf] k|ltzt_ @@=$ @!=( @@=! @@=) @@=! ;/sf/L c+z $=& $=& $=& $=& $=& lghL ljB't\ c+z )=( )=( )=( )=( )=( lghL ljB'ta\ fx]ssf] c+z !^=( !^=$ !^=^ !^=% !^=^ rfn' vftf -s'ufpsf] k|ltzt_ !=@ !=@ )=( )=* !=) jf:tljs ljlgdo b/ -@)!^º!))_² cf};t @)!&—#) -k|ltzt kl/jt{g_ ((=! ((=) ((=* ((=* –)=@ ;/sf/L ah]6 ;Gt'ng -s'ufpsf] k|ltzt_ –!=) –!=$ –!=% –!=& –!=% ;/sf/L C0f -s'ufpsf] k|ltzt_ @$=^ @$=* @*=# #!=* @&=& s'ufp k|ltJolQm -cd]l/sL 8n/_Ù cf};t !&–#) -k|ltzt kl/jt{g_ &!* &$$ *(# !,))) @=^ ;|f]t M g]kfn sDKo'6]an h]g]/n OlSjlnla|od -;LhLO{_ df]8]nsf kl/0ffdx? 6]an 3 $ M hn;|f]t nufgL a[xt\ cfly{s kl/b[Zo, ;g\ @)!& b]lv @)#) (hydro investment scenario) @)!& @)!* @)@% @)#) cf};t @)!&—#) jf:tljs s'ufp j[l4 -k|ltzt kl/jt{g_ %=@ $=^ %=# #=$ $=) nufgL -s'ufpsf] k|ltzt_ @*=( @*=! @(=( @%=! #)=@ ;/sf/L c+z !)=) (=% &=# ^=! *=$ lghL ljB't\ c+z $=% $=! %=@ !=( %=$ lghL ljB'ta\ fx]ssf] c+z !$=$ !$=% !&=$ !&=! !^=$ rfn' vftf -s'ufpsf] k|ltzt_ –#=& –#=% –%=) –!=$ –%=) jf:tljs ljlgdo b/ -@)!^º!))_² cf};t @)!&—#) -k|ltzt kl/jt{g_ (^=) (%=$ (#=@ ($=) –^=) ;/sf/L ah]6 ;Gt'ng -s'ufpsf] k|ltzt_ –%=@ –%=@ –#=% –@=( –$=# ;/sf/L C0f -s'ufpsf] k|ltzt_ @*=^ #@=# %$=^ ^)=! $&=( s'ufp k|ltJolQm -cd]l/sL 8n/_Ù cf};t @)!&–#) -k|ltzt kl/jt{g_ &$# &&@ (&# !,!)( #=! ;|f]t M g]kfn sDKo'6]an h]g]/n OlSjlnla|od -;LhLO{_ df]8]nsf kl/0ffdx? ] df nufgL, pTkfbsTj / cfk|jf;Laf6 cfpg] k|ltkmnsf cfwf/df a[xt\ cfly{s kl/b[Zo, 6]an 3 % M hn;|ft ;g\ @)!& b]lv @)#) (hydro investment, productivity and migrant returns scenario) @)!& @)!* @)@% @)#) cf};t @)!&–#) jf:tljs s'ufp j[l4 -k|ltzt kl/jt{g_ %=@ $=^ ^=( #=( $=& nufgL, -s'ufpsf] k|ltzt_ @*=( @*=! @(=( @%=^ #)=# ;/sf/L c+z !)=) (=% &=@ ^=) *=# lghL ljB't\ c+z $=% $=! %=! !=* %=$ \ fx]ssf] c+z lghL ljB'ta !$=$ !$=% !&=^ !&=* !^=^ rfn' vftf -s'ufpsf] k|ltzt_ –#=& –#=% –%=) –!=$ –%=) jf:tljs ljlgdo b/ -@)!^º!))_² cf};t @)!&—#) -k|ltzt kl/jt{g_ (^=) (%=$ ($=# (&=# –@=& ;/sf/L ah]6 ;Gt'ng -s'ufpsf] k|ltzt_ –%=@ –%=@ –#=$ –@=( –$=@ ;/sf/L C0f -s'ufpsf] k|ltzt_ @*=^ #@=# %#=( ^&=@ $^=( s'ufp k|ltJolQm -cd]l/sL 8n/_Ù cf};t @)!&–#) -k|ltzt kl/jt{g_ &$# &&@ (*# !,!&* #=^ ;|f]t M g]kfn sDKo'6]an h]g]/n OlSjlnla|od -;LhLO{_ df]8]nsf kl/0ffdx? pRr cf/f]x0fM dWocfo d'n'stkm{sf] lbzfdf 30 ^(= t/ hn;|f]tdf cfpg] dfly plNnlvt nufgLsf] n}hfg]5 . o:tf] clwd"Nogn] g]kfnsf] ljB't\afx]ssf If]qsf] sfof{Gjog ug{ ;s]df cfly{s nfex? pNn]Vo?kdf j[l4 lgof{tsf] cGt/f{li6«o k|lt:kwL{ IfdtfnfO{ 36fpg]5 . hnljB't\ x'g]5g\ . dfly pNn]v ul/Psf nufgLnfO{ cfwf/ /]vf kl/b[Zodf ;'ljwfx? lgdf{0f ug{ k|of]u x'g] cfofltt j:t'x?sf] cfk|jfxn] yk ul/Psf] 5 ;fy}, kl/k"/s gLltx? klg sfof{Gjog ul/g]5 . clwd"Nogåf/f x'g] k|efj cem hl6n x'g]5 . pbfx/0fsf nflu, g]kfn ljB't\ k|flws/0fnfO{ ljB't\ cg'bfgsf] ?kdf hfg] /sdnfO{ ;g\ @)!& / ;g\ @)@! sf aLrdf &@= hnljB'td \ f x'g] nufgLsf] kl/0ffd:j?k ;/sf/sf] qmdzM x6fOg]5 . nufgLstf{x?nfO{ gfkmf / nfef+z cfkm\gf] /fh:jdf j[l4 x'g]5. t/, ;/sf/n] k|;f/0f tyf ljt/0f ;~hfn b]z n}hfg] :jLs[lt lbOg]5 / cfGtl/s k"FhLnfO{ ljB't\afx]ssf lgdf{0fdf nufgL ug{ C0f lng'kg]{ ePsf sf/0f ;du| cfly{s ;Gt'ng If]qx?af6 ljB't\ If]qdf rnfodfg u/fOg]5 . hnljB't\df x'g] eg] vl:sg]5 . ;/sf/L C0f of] k|If]k0f ul/Psf] cjlwdf cf};tdf nufgLsf] l:yltnfO{ nfO{ cfwf/ /]vf kl/b[Zo;Fu t'ngf ubf{ s'ufpsf] sl/a $* k|ltzt k'Ug] u/L j[l4 x'g5 ]  . hnljB'td \ f x'g] hnljB't\ nufgLn] ;du| cy{tGqsf] km}nfj6df k|efj kfb{5 . nufgLn] ;/sf/L /fh:jnfO{ k|ToIf of]ubfg k'¥ofpg]5 . o;sf ck]Iff ul/Ph:t}, of] cj:yfdf s'ufp j[l4b/ cfwf//]vf cltl/Qm cfoftdf x'g] j[l4n] eG;f/ /fh:jdf j[l4 ug]5 {  . lah'nLsf] kl/b[ZoeGbf dfly, cf};tdf $ k|ltzt x'G5 . ;g\ @)#) cfGtl/s laqmLdf d"No clej[l4 s/ gnfUg] x'gfn] ljB't\ If]qsf] ;Dddf o:tf] nufgL ePsf] cj:yfeGbf s'ufp cfkm} klg $=% lj:tf/ x'bF f of] s/af6 ;+sng x'g] /fh:j 36\5 . s] klg cg'dfg k|ltztn] a9L x'G5 . o; cj:yfdf g]kfn Go"g cfo d'n'ssf] ul/Psf] 5 eg], yk k|fKt x'g] /fh:jnfO{ ;/sf/L ;]jfx? lj:tf/ :t/af6 ;g\ @)@( ;Dddf g} :t/f]Gglt x'g ;S5 -6]a'n 3 ug{sf nflu k|of]u ul/g]5 . ;aeGbf dxÎjk"0f{ s'/f, ;/sf/L $_ . of] ljZn]if0f ;g\ @)!& b]lv @)#) cjlw;Dd s]lGb|t ;Gt'ngdf cfPsf] Ifo ;doqmd;Fu,} lj:tfl/t cy{tGqn] yk /x]sf] 5 . ;f] cjlwn] cfof]hgfx?df 7"nf] nufgLsf] r/0f /fh:j ;+sngdf ;3fPkl5 qmdzM ;fdfGos[t x'b F } hfg]5 . / sl/a % jif{sf] ljB't\ lgof{tsf] cjlwnfO{ ;d]t ;d]6\5 . ljB't\ lgof{t ;g\ @)#) kl5 klg lg/Gt/ /xg] / s'ufpnfO{ &#= ;Defljt a[xt\ c;/x?nfO{ ‘df]8]lnª’ u/]/ x]bf{ lg/Gt/ ;3fO/xg] ck]Iff ul/Psf] 5 . g]kfnnfO{ yk nfesf/L kl/0ffd cfpg] b]lvPsf] 5 . o;cl3 plNnlvt kl/b[Zon] hnljB'td \ f x'g] nufgLnfO{ cy{tGqdf Pp6f &)= bL3{sfndf o:tf] nufgLn] g]kfnsf] pTkfbsTj dfgs nufgL em6\sf (standard investment shock) sf ?kdf IfdtfnfO{ lj:tf/ u5{ / cy{tGqdf lgof{tsf] cu|tf lnOPsf] 5 . t/, ljB'td \ f cfTdlge{/tf xfl;n ePkl5 g]kfnsf ePsf] cfly{s j[l4nfO{ ;3fpF5 . klxnf] bzsdf ljB't\df sDkgLx?sf nflu Pp6f dxÎjk"0f{ c8\rg x6\5 eg]/ dfGbf x'g] nufgL cfly{s ultljlwx?sf] d'Vo pTk|]/s aGg]5 . of] oL nufgLx?af6 c? a[xQ/ ;sf/fTds c;/x? kg]5 { g\ eg]/ cjlwdf x'g] nufgL s'ufpsf] #) k|ltzt x'g]5 / ljB't\df lghL ck]Iff ul/g' utn x'g] 5}g . nufgL, /fh:j / cg'bfg vf/]hL If]q Pjd\ ;/sf/L If]qsf] nufgLdf x'g] j[l4dfkm{t\ s'ufpdf gLltx?sf cltl/Qm xfdLn] Pp6f j}slNks kl/b[Zosf] klg df]8n ] o:tf] pNn]Vo of]ubfg x'g]5 . ljB't\sf] yk pTkfbg k|;f/0fdf agfPsf 5f},+ hxfF cy{tGqsf ;a} If]qx?sf] pTkfbsTjdf b]lvg] cfPkl5 ;g\ @)#) ;Dddf g]kfnsf] ljB't\ lgof{t s'ufpsf] cfsf/sf] ;'wf/ x'g5 ] -;g\ @)#) ;Dd pTkfbsTjdf sl/a * % k|ltzt x'g] u/L lj:tf/ x'g]5 . hnljB't\df x'g] o:tf] k|ltztn] p5fn cfpg]5_$ . jf:tljs Hofnfb/ a9\g] ePkl5 nufgLn] ;g\ @)!& / @)#) sf] aLrdf jf:tljs Hofnfb/nfO{ xfdLn] cfk|jf;L sfdbf/x? klg lgs} dfqfdf :jb]z kmls{g] k|ltjif{ cf};tdf sl/a # k|ltztn] dfly n}hfg]5 . z'?df ] agfPsf 5f}  df]8n + . pTkfbsTj / >d If]qdf cfpg] pef/n] c? o:tf] Hofnfb/ j[l4 hnljB't\ cfof]hgf lgdf{0f ug]{ qmddf yk nfesf/L kl/0ffdx? Nofpg]5 . s'ufp j[l4b/ cf};tdf ;g\ >dsf] pRr dfusf sf/0f x'g]5 . ;doqmd;Fu} pRr k"FhL @)#) ;Dd $=& k|ltzt x'g5 ] / s'ufpsf] :t/ clxn]sf] cfwf/ ;l~rtLn] >dsf] pTkfbsTjdf ;'wf/ Nofpg]5 / of] qmdzM /]vfaf6 !* k|ltzt dfly x'g5 ]  . o;n] ;g\ @)@& leq} g]kfnnfO{ pRr Hofnfb/df ?kfGtl/t x'g]5 . Go"g cfo d'ns' sf] :t/af6 :t/f]Gglt ug{ ;Ifd agfpg]5 -6]an 3 % / 6]an 3 ^_ . &!= t/ jf:tljs ljlgdo b/sf] clwd"Nogn], ‘8r l8lhh’ (Dutch disease) sf] cjwf/0ffn] eg]em}+, Jofkf/sf If]qx? &$= rfvnfUbf] s] 5 eg], g]kfn ;+;f/sf tL la/n} k|lts"n 9+un] k|efljt x'g]5g\ . hnljB't\df nufgL ug{ d'n'sdWo] Ps x'g]5, h;sf] >d cfk"lt{ nueu lelqg] ljb]zL /sdn] jf:tljs ljlgdo b/nfO{ clwd"Nogtkm{ Jojwfg/lxt /xg]5 . ;g\ !(%) sf] g]kfn / ef/taLr ePsf] $ of] cfsf/nfO{ cnsf]6, sf]nf8{–j]S;n/ / cf]’sf]Gg]n -@)!$_ n] ef/tsf pTkfbg sDkgLx?sf] pTkfbsTjdf ljB't\ cefjn] kfg]{ k|efjaf/] u/]sf] cWoogcg';f/ ;dfof]hg ul/Psf] 5 . pgLx?n] ;g\ @))% df /fi6«JofkL?kdf & bzdnj ! k|ltzt lah'nL cefj x'Fbf pTkfbgaf6 k|fKt cfDbfgLdf ! bzdnj ^ k|ltztn] sdL cfpg] kQf nufPsf 5g\ . pRr cf/f]x0fM dWocfo d'n'stkm{sf] lbzfdf 31 6]an 3 ^ M hn;|f]tdf ePsf] nufgLn] ;g\ @)#) df g]kfndf b]lvg] k|efj -cfwf/ /]vfaf6 ljrng k|ltzt, percent deviation from baseline_ d'Vo k|efj a[xt\ k|efjx? jf:tljs s'ufp $=% !$=* lghL pkef]u !=@ *=$ ;/sf/L pkef]u $=% !$=* nufgL *=( !%=^ ;/sf/L #*=) $*=# lghL ljB't\ !@@=) !#@=# lghL ljB'ta \ fx]s *=$ @$=# lgof{t $$=* ^*=( \ fx]s ljB'ta –@@=) #=$ cfoft !)=& !%=@ jf:tljs Hofnf ^=^ !^=$ ;|f]t M g]kfn sDKo'6]an h]g]/n OlSjlnla|od -;LhLO{_ df]8]nsf kl/0ffdx? zflGt tyf d}qL ;lGwn] oL b'O{ b]zaLr dflg;x?sf] :jtGq ] n] oL gofF l;h{gf x'g] /f]huf/Lsf :yfgx? s;n] xfd|f] of] df]8n cfjthfjtsf] Joj:yf u/]sf] 5 . ;lGwcg';f/ g]kfnL / ef/tLo k"lt{ ug]5{ eGg] 5'6o\ fPsf] 5}g . gful/sx? ;Ldf jf/kf/ ofqf ug{ ;S5g\ / pgLx?n] cfkm\g} b]zsf] gful/s;/xsf] Jojxf/ csf]{ b]zdf klg kfpF5g\ . u|fdL0f &%= ljB'ts \ f] cfTdlge{/tfn] lbg] cj;/x?sf] bf]xg ug{ ;Sbf If]qsf nfdf] ;dob]lv ul/aL / a]/f]huf/L / s]xL ;dootf ‘8r l8lhh’sf k|efjx?nfO{ Go"gLs/0f ug{ eg] d2t ug]5 {  . ;z:q åGåsf] l;sf/ ePsfx? ef/ttkm{ hfg] k/Dk/f /x]sf] ljB'td\ f e/kbf]{ kx'r F ePkl5 ;du| cy{tGqsf sDkgLx?sf] pTkfbg 5 . tyflk, of] cfk|jf;gsf] k|lqmof PstkmL{ 5}g . g]kfnLx? nfut sd x'g5 ]  . o:tf] sd nfutsf] nfe pkef]Qmfx?n] 36\bf] d"Nosf ef/ttkm{ cfk|jf;g ePs} a]nfb]lv ef/tLox? klg g]kfntkm{ ?kdf kfpg]5g\ . /, o;n] g]kfnsf] cGt/f{li6«o k|lt:kwL{ IfdtfnfO{ cfk|jf;L ePsf 5g\ . o:tf] cfk|jf;gsf] k|lqmof / ltgnfO{ ;'wf/ ug's { f ;fy} ljB'ta \ fx]ssf lgof{tnfO{ lj:tf/ klg ug]5{  . ;fy}, k|efj kfg]{ tTjx? km/s x'g ;Snfg\, t/ o:tf] bf]xf]/f] cfk|jf;g cfGtl/s ahf/df d"No sd x'b F f 3/]n' pTkfbgn] cfoftnfO{ k|lt:yfkg eO/x]sf] oyfy{ xf] . kl/0ffd:j?k hnljB't\ If]qdf x'g] 7"nf] ] ;flxt ug]5 ug{ k|fT { , h;n] g]kfnsf sDkgLx?nfO{ yk ;xfotf ldNg]5 . kl/df0fsf] nufgLsf sf/0f l;h{gf x'g] Hofnfb/dflysf] bafanfO{ pNn]Vo s] 5 eg], pTkfbsTjdf cfpg] j[l4n] jf:tljs Hofnf j[l4 clxn] g]kfnd} ePsf g]kfnLx?, clxn] ljb]zdf ePsf g]kfnLx? ug{ ;Ifd agfpg]5, h'g cfwf/e"t /]vfdf k|:t't kl/b[Zo (baseline cyjf clxn] g]kfn / ef/tdf ePsf ef/tLox?n] k"lt{ ug]5 { g\ . scenario) eGbf cf};tdf !^ k|ltztn] dfly x'g5 ]  . pRr cf/f]x0fM dWocfo d'n'stkm{sf] lbzfdf 32 pRr cf/f]x0fM dWocfo d'n'stkm{sf] lbzfdf 33 pRr cf/f]x0fM dWocfo d'n'stkm{sf] lbzfdf 34 cWofo kfFr cfly{s j[l4sf ljBdfg ;|f]tx?nfO{ pTk|]/0ff % g]kfnsf] cy{tGqsf nflu dxÎjk"0f{ dflgPsf] s[lifIf]q Go"g nufgL / Go"g pTkfbsTjdf hsl8Psf] 5 &^= g]kfnsf] cy{tGqsf] 7"nf] lx:;fsf ?kdf /x]sf] s[lif If]q, /f]huf/L / cfosf] d'Vo ;|f]t Pjd\ ul/aL Go"gLs/0fsf] Pp6f sf/s /lxcfPsf] 5 . s[lifn] cy{tGqsf] Ps ltxfO d"No clej[l4 / b'Ol{ txfO /f]huf/L cf]u6\g] x'gfn] s[lif pTkfbsTjsf ;fy} ;du| pTkfbsTj clej[l4sf nflu ;d]t o; If]qsf] ;'wf/ cfjZos 5 . ul/aL Go"gLs/0f / ;d[l4sf] ;fem]bf/Lsf nflu klg s[lif Pp6f dxÎjk"0f{ If]q xf] . cfj ;g\ @))$ / @)!!sf] aLrdf ax'bf ul/aL Go"gLs/0f u|fdL0f If]qx?df eof] / o;nfO{ s[lifhGo cfodf ePsf] j[l4n] ;Dej agfPsf] + @)!#aL_ . s'n cfoj[l4sf] ljZn]if0f ubf{ v]tLsf] cfo / s[lifsf] Hofnf @$=$ lyof] -ljZj a}s k|ltztn] j[l4 ePsf] b]vfpF5 . To;kl5 j[l4 ePsf If]qx?df ljk|i ] f0f -@# k|ltzt_, u}/s[lif If]qsf] Hofnf -@@=* k|ltzt_ / Jofj;flos cfo -!*=# k|ltzt_ j[l4 ePsf] b]lvG5 . ;a}eGbf tn /x]sf $) k|ltzt hgtfsf] xsdf ul/aL lgjf/0f ug{ s[lifsf] of]ubfg ;aeGbf pRr lyof], hxfF pgLx?sf] cfoj[l4df s[lif cfon] #( k|ltzt of]ubfg u/]sf] lyof] . &&= tyflk, g]kfnsf] s[lif l5d]sL d'n'sx?sf] t'ngfdf a9L ptf/r9fjo'Qm / ;fk]IftM Go"g k|ltkmn lbg] k|s[ltsf] 5 . xfn}sf bzsx?df s[lif If]qsf] j[l4b/ ptf/r9fjk"0f{ /x]sf] 5 . nuftf/sf jif{x?df g} pRrtd\ / Go"gtd\ j[l4b/ clen]lvt ePsf 5g\ lsgls s[lifsf] pTkfbsTj df};dL jiff{df cTolws lge{/ /x]sf] 5 . g]kfnsf] s[lif If]q vf;u/L v]tLof]Uo hldgnfO{ ;aeGbf a9L cf]u6\g] wfg tyf ux'h F :tf vfBfGg afnLx?sf] pTkfbsTj l5d]sL ' x?sf] t'ngfdf ;fk]IftM sd 5 . pbfx/0fsf nflu, g]kfndf wfgsf] pTkfbsTj ef/t / d'ns a+unfb]zsf] eGbf sd 5 . ux's F f] pTkfbsTj ef/t, a+unfb]z / kfls:tfgsf] eGbf ljutsf bzsx?df lg/Gt/ sd /xFb} cfPsf] 5 -lrq ª ! / ª @_ . &*= cfly{s cfodf ePsf] j[l4sf] sf/s d"Noj[l4af6 k|fKt nfe xf], pTkfbsTjdf ePsf] j[l4n] ubf{ eg] xf]Og . cfj ;g\ @))$ b]lv @)!! ;Dd s[lifafnLsf] cfodf b]lvPsf] @! k|ltztsf] s'n j[l4dWo] sl/a !* k|ltzt laGb' vfB kbfy{sf] d"Nodf ePsf] j[l4sf sf/0f k|fKt ePsf] lyof], hals pTkfbsTj j[l4n] % k|ltzt ljGb' dfq} of]ubfg u¥of] . ;fy}, s[lifof]Uo % of] v08, k"0f{?kdf ljZj a}+s -@)!^aL_ sf] ‘ul/aL lgjf/0f / ;Dj[l4 ;fe]mbf/Lsf nflu s[lifdf cfly{s j[l4sf] ;kmntf’, ljZj a}+s, jflzª6g 8L=;L=sf] b:tfj]haf6 lnOPsf] xf] . pRr cf/f]x0fM dWocfo d'n'stkm{sf] lbzfdf 35 6]an ª ! M cfj ;g\ @))$ / cfj ;g\ @)!! aLrdf s[lifafnL cfodf cfPsf] kl/jt{gsf] ljZn]if0f, k|ltzt ;Dk"0f{ g]kfn t/fO{ kxf8 lxdfn afnL cfodf kl/jt{g )=@! )=#% )=)& )=#@ e"ldsf] of]ubfg –)=)@ )=)) –)=)! –)=!! pTkfbgsf] of]ubfg )=)% )=!$ –)=)& )=@# d"Nosf] of]ubfg )=!* )=@! )=!% )=!( ;|f]t M ljZj a}+s @)!^aL hldg v'lDrPsf sf/0f s[lifafnLaf6 x'g] cfonfO{ @ k|ltzt eg a|fpg @)!$_ . g]kfnleq, lxdfn / t/fO{ If]qdf vfBj:t'sf] laGb'n] sd u¥of] -6]an ' ª !_ . e"ldsf] of]ubfg gsf/fTds d"No / pTkfbsTj b'jn } ] afnLaf6 x'g] cfoj[l4df of]ubfg u/], t/ /x]sf] 5 . o;sf] ;+st ] s] xf] eg] vfBfGg d"Nodf j[l4 ePsf]n] kxf8L If]qdf afnLsf] cfDbfgL a9\bf] d"Nosf sf/0f dfq} b]lvPsf] s[ifsx?sf] cfodf ;d]t j[l4 x'b F fx'b F } klg v]tLof]Uo hldgsf] lyof] . lsgeg], v]tLsf] pTkfbsTj jf:tjdf 36]sf] lyof] . If]qkmn eg] v'lDrPsf] lyof] . vfBfGgsf] a9\bf] d"Non] ;fdfGotM ls;fgx?nfO{ yk hldgdf v]tL ug{n ] ufotsf a9L pTkfbgsf &(=  s[ifsx? vfBfGg pTkfbg 5f]8]/ afnLnfO{ kmnkm"n, ;fwgx? pkof]u ug{ k|l] /t u5{ . tyflk, vfB pTkfbgsf] t/sf/Ltkm{ ljljwLs/0f ul//x]sf 5g\, tyflk of] k|j[lQ d"No pRr dfq lyPg, ;fy;fy} ptf/r9fjk"0f{ klg lyof] . h'g 7"nf] dfqfdf lj:tf/ x'g] b]lv“b}g. g]kfnsf] kmnkm"n pTkfbgdf vfBfGg If]qsf] d'Vo hf]lvdsf] ;|ft ] alglbof] . k|fylds vfB p;sf l5d]sLx?sf] t'ngfdf pRr k|ltkmn cfPsf] 5 / pTkfbgdf ;+nUg ls;fgx?sf nflu j:t'sf d"Nox? cl:y/ t/sf/Ldf klg bf];f| ] pRr k|ltkmn 5 . t/, kmnkm"n / t/sf/Lsf] x'g' d"n lrGtfsf] ljifo xf] . o;n] l;h{gf ug]{ clglZrttfn] pTkfbsTj ;fk]IftM a9L b]lvFbfb]lvFb} / ltgsf] pkef]udf pRr pTkfbgsf ;fwgx?sf] k|of]udf x'g] nufgLnfO{ k|efljt u5{ F f klg, clxn] :yfoL vfBfGg -wfg, ds}, ux',F sf]bf] / j[l4 x'b -df]lZrgL P08 x]g; ] L @))!, ;fbdf] !(&!_ . cfj ;g\ @))$ kmfk/_x?sf nflu 5'6o \ fOPsf] e"ld cTolws 5 . s[lif s'ufpdf sf] bfFhf]df cfj ;g\ @)!! df v]tL ePsf] hldgsf] If]qkmn :yfoL vfBfGgx?sf] of]ubfgsf] c+z kmnkm"n / t/sf/Lsf] eGbf v'lDrPsf] b]vfPsf] 5 . o;n] ls;fgx?n] d'Vo vfBfGg afnL # u'0ffdfq} a9L eP klg tL :yfoL vfBfGgsf nflu 5'6o \ fOPsf] nufpg k|oQ ' m x'g] hldgsf] dfqf 36]sf] ljZjJofkL kl/b[ZonfO{ e"ld eg] c;dfg'kflts?kn] !) u'0ff a9L 5 . t;y{, ha;Dd k|ltlalDat u5{ . xfn}sf] ljZjJofkL vfBfGg ;+s6sf a]nf -s_ d'Vo vfBafnLx?sf] ;du| cfwf/e"t pTkfbsTj g} j[l4 d"Nox? pRr / ptf/r9fjk"0f{ ePsf lyP -xfOn], sfNsxn, / eP/ c? afnLsf nflu hldg vfnL ug]{ cj:yf x'b Fg} , / -v_ lrq ª ! M blIf0f Pl;ofdf wfgsf] pTkfbsTj lrq ª @ M blIf0f Pl;ofdf ux'“sf] pTkfbsTj -d]l6«s 6g, k|lt x]S6/_ -d]l6«s 6g, k|lt x]S6/_ g]kfn a+unfb]z ef/t kfls:tfg g]kfn a+unfb]z ef/t kfls:tfg %=) #=% $=% #=) $=) #=% @=% #=) @=) @=% !=% @=) !=% !=) !=) )=% )=% )=) )=) @)!# @)!# @))) @))! @))@ @))# @))$ @))% @))^ @))& @))* @))( @)!) @)!! @)!@ @)!$ @))) @))! @))@ @))# @))$ @))% @))^ @))& @))* @))( @)!) @)!! @)!@ @)!$ ;|f]t M PkmPcf] tYof+s ;|f]t M PkmPcf] tYof+s pRr cf/f]x0fM dWocfo d'n'stkm{sf] lbzfdf 36 kmnkm"n tyf t/sf/Laf6 t'ngfTds nfe lnPsf s[ifsx?sf o;sf cltl/Qm 3/kl/jf/x? cfkm\gf pkef]u cfjZostf ck]Iff :yfoL?kn] kmi6fpgsf nflu :yfoL vfBj:t'x? Go"g k"lt{ ug{sf nflu vfBfGg ahf/df lge{/ /xg] qmd a9\bf] 5 . d"Nodf pknAw u/fpg ;Sg]u/L ahf/ e/kbf]{ x'b } ta;Dd Fg hals, o;/L ahf/Ls/0f ul/Psf vfBfGgx?sf] ax'bf cfk"lt{df ljljwLs/0fsf] k|jl[ Qn] 7"nf] dfqfdf 7fpF lng] ;Defjgf 5}g . cfoftsf] lx:;f 5 . o;f] lsg ePsf] 5 eg], cfGtl/s d"No clej[l4 z[v+ nf (domestic value chain) sd k|lt:kwL{ ePsf] 5 *)=  kl/0ffd:j?k s[lif pTkfbsTjsf] j[l4 ;fdfGo dfq 5, / o;n] g]kfnsf] cfGtl/s vfBfGg ahf/df cfkm\gf] ahf/ lx:;f / blIf0f Pl;ofnL If]qs} ;a}eGbf Go"g /x]sf] 5. s[lifsf] s'n u'dfpFb} 5 . yk s'/f, ;a} If]qsf] lgof{t 36]sf] 5, tfklg vfBfGg j:t' pTkfbsTjsf cg'dfgx? km\oh ' fOn -@)!@_sf] cWoogdf lgof{t cem w]/n } ] 36]sf] 5 -lrq ª $_ . g]kfn vfBfGgsf] v'b cfwfl/t 5g\, h;n] vfB tyf s[lif ;+u7gsf tYof+sx? k|of]u cfoftstf{ x'b } , pRr d"Nosf kmnkm"n tyf t/sf/Lh:tf vfB F5 u/]/ g]kfnnufot ljleGg b]zdf s'n j:t' pTkfbsTj cg'dfg j:t'x? / wfg, cfn' tyf ds}h:tf :yfoL vfBj:t'x? b'js } f ug{ u|fy] PsfplG6ª\ (growth accounting) df]8n k|of]u u/]sf xsdf o:tf] cfoft eO/x]sf] 5 . lyP . oL tYof+sx?n] g]kfnsf] s[lifIf]qdf s'n j:t' pTkfbsTj ;g\ !((* otf qmlds?kn] j[l4 ePsf] b]vfPsf] 5 . ;g\ !((@ s[lif pTkfbsTjsf] j[l4nfO{ cj?4 ug]{ b]lv @)!! ;Dd g]kfndf s'n j:t' pTkfbsTj kfls:tfgsf] d'Vo tÎjx? eGbf b't | ultn] a9\of], t/ ef/t / a+unfb]zsf] eGbf lgs} sd /x\of] . -lrq ª #_ . *@=  g]kfndf s[lif pTkfbsTjsf] j[l4nfO{ afwf kfg]{ d'Vo tŒjx?df k|fljlws kl/jt{g (technical change) / k|fljlws *!= g]kfnsf] s[lif cfGtl/s / lgof{t b'j} ahf/df sd k|efjsfl/tf (technical efficiency) sf] Go"g :t/ /x]sf 5g\, k|lt:kwL{ ePsf] 5 . g]kfn vfBfGgsf] v'b lgof{ts (net vf;u/L g]kfnsf] cGge08f/ dflgg] t/fO{ If]qdf o:tf] { . t/, clxn] vfBfGgsf] v'b cfoftstf{ exporter) x'g] uYof]  Go"gtf /x]sf] 5 . k|fljlws kl/jt{g gofF k|ljlwsf] hfgsf/L ePsf] 5 . dfu kIfsf] s'/f ubf{, g]kfndf vfBfGgsf] k|ltJolQm / pkof]u;Fu ;DalGwt 5 eg] k|fljlws k|efjsfl/tfdf vf]lhg] pkef]u b|t ' ultdf al9/x]sf] 5, h'g b/ If]qLo :t/sf] eGbf kl/jt{grflxF pknAw k|ljlwx?nfO{ ls;fgn] k|of]u ug{ ;Sg' w]/} l56f] 5 . pbfx/0fsf nflu, s'n pkef]udf 3/}df pTkflbt xf] . pTkfbsTjnfO{ ‘dfNdlSj:6 k|8S6Lle6L OG8]S;’dfkm{t\ dfkg vfBfGgsf] cg'kft g]kfndf ef/tdf eGbf klg l56f] b/n] ubf{ d'ns' sf] ;a} If]qdf pTkfbsTj j[l4sf] d'Vo sf/s k|fljlws 3l6/x]sf] 5 . of] 36\g] b/ g]kfndf $ k|ltzt laGb' 5 eg] kl/jt{g g} ePsf] b]vfpF5 . o:tf k|fljlws kl/jt{gn] cfj ;g\ ef/tdf @ k|ltzt laGb'dfq 5 . ;a} ju{sf vfBfGgx?df vfB @))$ / cfj ;g\ @)!! sf aLrdf lxdfnL If]qdf @^ k|ltzt, pkef]u a9]sf] 5 / o:tf] j[l4 ufpF / zx/ b'jt } km{ b]lvG5 . kxf8L If]qdf !* k|ltzt / t/fO{ If]qdf * k|ltzt pTkfbsTj lrq ª # M s[lifsf] pTkfbsTj lrq ª $ M s[lif pTkfbgx?sf] v'b lgof{t d"No -l6PkmkL ;"rsf+s, ;g\ !((@ = !))_ -b; nfv cd]l/sL 8n/_ g]kfn a+unfb]z ef/t kfls:tfg !^) ^) bnxg !%) $) !$) ux'F @) !#) ) !@) ds} –@) cfn' !!) wfg !)) –$) kmnkm"n–t/sf/L () –^) *) –*) @))) @))! @))@ @))# @))$ @))% @))^ @))& @))* @))( @)!) @)!! !((@ !((# !(($ !((% !((^ !((& !((* !((( @))) @))! @))@ @))# @))$ @))% @))^ @))& @))* @))( @)!) @)!! ;|f]t M km\o'hfOn @)!@ ;|f]t M PkmPcf] tYof+s pRr cf/f]x0fM dWocfo d'n'stkm{sf] lbzfdf 37 6]an ª @ M cfj ;g\ @))$ / cfj ;g\ @)!! aLr k|ljlw kl/jt{g / k|fljlws k|efjsfl/tfn] pTkfbsTjdf k'¥ofPsf] ;fk]If of]ubfg -OG8]S;, @))$ Ö !_ t/fO{ kxf8 lxdfn dfNdlSj:6 k|8S6Lle6L OG8]S; (malmquist productivity index) !=@@ !=@^ )=($ k|fljlws kl/jt{g (technical change) !=@^ !=!* !=)* k|fljlws k|efjsfl/tf kl/jt{g (technical efficiency change) )=(% !=)^ )=*% ;|f]t M ljZj a}+s @)!^aL j[l4 ePsf] b]lvof] . o;sf] cy{, o:tf] k|ljlw cjnDag ug]{ 5g\ . csf]{tkm{, hUufsf] cefj ePsf u|fdL0f 3/kl/jf/x? ls;fgx?dWo] lxdfnL If]qdf ;fk]IftM 7"nf] k|efj / To;kl5sf] yk hUuf ef8fdf lng ;Ifd x'Fb}gg\ / ;fg} cfsf/sf] hldgdf k|efj kxf8L If]qdf k/]sf] b]lvof] . tyflk, g]kfnsf] vfB e08f/ s[lif ug{ afWo 5g\ . hldgsf] cfsf/ / pTkfbsTjaLrsf] dflgg] t/fO{df eg] o:tf] k|efj lgs} sd k/]sf] b]lvG5 . o:tf] ;DaGw ;sf/fTds x'g] xf] eg] ;fgf] dfqfsf] s[lif Go"g cfosf] kl/jt{g sd b]lvg'sf] sf/0f c? If]qx?n] lgs} tNnf] :t/af6 w/fk aGg ;SYof] . o;f] gx'Fbf hUuf v08Ls/0f / Go"g k|ljlw k|of]u z'? u/]sfn] x'g ;S5 / s'g} klg gofF k|ljlwn] ofGqLs/0fn] k|>o kfO/x]sf] 5, h;n] g]kfnsf] jt{dfg s[lif pTkfbsTjnfO{ ;fk]IftM l56f] ultdf a9fpg] ;Defjgf cem} 5 . k|0ffnLdfkm{t\ cfly{s lj:tf/ (economies of scale) Nofpg] t/ klg lrGtfhgs s'/f s] 5 eg], t/fO{df a9\bf] k|fljlws ;Defjgf 5}g . kl/jt{gsf] k|efjnfO{ 36\bf] k|fljlws k|efjsfl/tfn] cy{xLg agfOlbPsf] 5 . o;}sf/0f of] If]qsf] pTkfbsTj cfly{s jif{ *$=  dnvfbsf] k|of]u / pknAwtf ;a}lt/ kof{Kt gePsf @))$ / cfj @)!! sf] aLrdf 36\of] . k|fljlws k|efjsfl/tf sf/0f Psf+uL (skewed) / dxFuf] 5. dnvfb k|of]ustf{x?sf] kl/jt{gdf b]lvPsf] gfh's sfo{kb | z{gLn] ls;fgx?n] eO/x]sf clws 5gf]6 gfO6«f]hgo'Qm dn x'g] u/]sf] 5, h'g o'l/ofdf k|ljlw / cEof;x?nfO{ klg nfebfos 9+un] k|of]u ug{ ;ls/x]sf kfOG5 . ;/sf/L dnvfb cg'bfg sfo{qmdcGtu{t lbOg] 5}gg\ eGg] b]vfpF5 -6]an ª @_ . ;Dk"0f{ kl/df0fsf] ^) k|ltzt lx:;f o;s} 5 . of] sfo{qmdn] km:kmf]/; / kf]6fl;od /x]sf] 8fOdf]lgod kmf]:km]6nfO{ ;3fPsf] *#= k/Dk/fut wf/0ff (conventional wisdom) ljk/Lt 5 t/ kf]6f; dnx?nfO{ sd dfqfdf ;3fPsf] 5 . o;n] ubf{ 7"nf ls;fg ;fgf ls;fgsf] bfFhf]df sd pTkfbgzLn afnLkf]ifs (nutrients) x?sf] c;Gt'lnt k|of]unfO{ a9fpg 5g\, h;n] ubf{ e"v08Ls/0fnfO{ k|>o lbPsf] 5 / d2t u/]sf] 5 . df6f]sf] kf]if0f sfod /fVg / pTkfbsTj ofGqLs/0fnfO{ /f]s]sf] 5 . hUuf sdfpg] k|0ffnLdf cfPsf] a9fpgsf nflu of] c;Gt'ngnfO{ ;Daf]wg ug}{ kg]{ cfjZostf ljs[ltsf sf/0f ;fgf ls;fgx? ;a} s[lif If]qx?df l:y/ 5 . o;sf cltl/Qm cg'bfg sfo{qmd cfkm}df dxFuf] 5 / pTkfbsTj j[l4 ug]{ ju{df k/]sf 5g\ . oL ;fgf ju{df dfq} o;nfO{ s;/L ;~rfng ubf{ /fli6«o 9's'6Ldf kg]{ cgfjZos k|fljlws kl/jt{g / k|ljlw k|efjsfl/tf kl/jt{gn] pTkfbsTj af]emnfO{ 36fpg ;lsG5 eGg]af/]df ;'wf/ x'g' cfjZos 5 . j[l4nfO{ lg/Gt/tf lbPsf] 5 . ;aeGbf ;fgf] cfsf/sf] o;}cg'?k ;g\ !((& df o;cl3sf] cg'bfg sfo{qmdnfO{ e+u e":jfldTj ePsf] ju{df pTkfbsTj lxdfnL efudf && k|ltzt, ul/Psf] lyof] . To:t} of] sfo{qmd ;a}lt/ k'Ug ;s]sf] 5}g, kxf8df %) k|ltzt / t/fO{df !$ k|ltztn] a9]sf] 5 . c? ;fy} o;dfkm{t\ cg'dflgt dfusf] cfwfdfq k"lt{ x'G5 . e":jfldTj ePsf] ju{df ;a} s[lif If]qsf] pTkfbsTj, k|fljlws kl/jt{g / k|fljlws k|efjsfl/tf kl/jt{gsf sf/0f a9f]Q/L *%=  ljQLo Aojwfg ;Da4 d'2fx?sf sf/0f s[lifdf lghL ePsf] b]lvFb}g . e"ld;Ddsf] kx'FrnfO{ k|efljt ug]{ w]/} tÎj nufgL ;Lldt dfq ePsf] 5 . pTkfbsx?n] ;lx tl/sfaf6 5g\ . tLdWo]sf] d'VorflxF hUuf ef8fdf nufpg] ahf/sf] v]tL ug]{ k|fljlws 1fg ;'wfg{sf nflu tyf cfw'lgs pks/0f lqmofzLntf xf] . g]kfndf hUuf ef8fsf] ahf/ cToGt ;fgf] Pjd\ afnL ljljwLs/0f k|ljlw k|of]u ug{ k|f/lDes r/0fdf k"hF L 5 . lsgeg], hUuf :jfldTjsf sfg"gx?sf sf/0f hUufwgLn] nufgL cfjZos k5{, h'g g]kfnsf lgjf{xd'vL ls;fgsf nflu ef8fdf lbPsf] hldg u'dfpg] hf]lvd /xG5 . ef8fdf lng]n] ufx|f] s'/f xf] . ;fy}, k/Dk/fut ls;fgx? / vf;u/L a9L o:tf] hldg nfdf] ;dob]lv cfkm"n] pkef]u u/]sf] atfP/ vf]hd"ns ls;fgx? b'jn ] pknAw u/fpg' Ps } fO{ ljQLo ;|ft To;dfly clwsf/ vf]Hg] ;Defjgf /xG5 . kl/0ffd:j?k Jofjxfl/s cfjZostf xf], h;nfO{ a}s + x?sf] nufgL gLltn] k"0f{ Psftkm{ ;fk]IftM 7"nf] cfsf/sf] hldgsf] :jfldTj x'g]x?n] ?kdf ;d]6g + x?n] nufgL ug{sf nflu \ ;s]sf] 5}g . lsgeg], a}s ef8fdf lng]n] g} hldg x8Kg] eosf sf/0f hldg afFem} 5f8]sf C0f cfj]bsx?sf] hUufdf :jfldTjdf x'g' / o;}nfO{ lwtf]sf] pRr cf/f]x0fM dWocfo d'n'stkm{sf] lbzfdf 38 ?kdf k|of]u ug'k { g]{ x'G5 . s[lifdf lghL nufgLnfO{ t'iff/fkft 5g\ . pgLx? / c? ls;fgnfO{ C0fsf] cf}krfl/s ;|ft ] ;Dd ug]{ of] d'Vo kIf /lxcfPsf] 5 . F a9fP/ pgLx?sf] s[lif Joj;fo ;~rfngnfO{ lj:tfl/t kx'r ug{ ;xof]u k'¥ofpg] xf] eg] g]kfnsf] s[lif If]qnfO{ k|efljt a[xt\ cfwf/sf] cfly{s pTkfbsTj j[l4sf ul//x]sf afwf x6fpg] pNn]Vo ;DefJotf b]lvG5 . /, o;f] ug{ nflu Pp6f PsLs[t /fli6«o sfo{qmd ;lsPdf s[lif pTkfbsTj ?kfGt/0f klg x'g5 ]  . o:tf] ?kfGt/0f cfjZos 5 b'j} tl/sfn] x'g ;S5 . ;'wfl/Psf] k|fljlws k|efjsfl/tf, h;n] pTkfbsx?nfO{ ljBdfg pTkfbg Ifdtfsf] xb;Dd hfg ;3fpF5 *^=  s[ifsx?n] k|ljlwnfO{ pko'Qm 9+un] k|of]u ug{ ;s'g\ / k|fljlws kl/jt{gdfkm{t\ a9L cfw'lgs cEof; Pjd\ k|ljlwx? egL ;'lglZrt ug{sf nflu ljsf;, k|;f/ / lj:tf/ k|of;x? k|of]u u/]/ pgLx?nfO{ pTkfbgsf gofF ;Ldf klxNofpg ;Ifd cToGt} dxŒjk"0f{ x'g]5g\ . of] vf]hn] s] kQf nufPsf] 5 eg], agfpF5 . g]kfnsf ;a} s[lif kof{j/0fLo If]qdf k|fljlws kl/jt{g pTkfbsTj j[l4sf] dxÎjk"0f{ sf/s xf] . pTkfbsx?n] ;xL tl/sfaf6 v]tL **=  s[lifdf ul/g] ?kfGt/0fsf/L x:tIf]kx? g]kfnsf] ug]a{ f/]sf] k|fljlws 1fgnfO{ yk ;'wf/ u/]/ / cfw'lgs ;fdu|L k|of]u ljleGg If]qdf ljBdfg pTkfbgsf ;fwgx¿n] pTkfbsTjdf Pjd\ afnL ljljwLs/0f u/]/ g]kfnsf] s[lifnfO{ nufgLstf{x?sf Nofpg] km/saf/]sf] ;'ema'emsf ;fy x'g'k5{ . t/fO{df l;+rfO nflu yk cfsif{s agfpg ;lsG5 . ;/sf/n] clxn] klg s[lif / sfo{qmdx? lj:tf/ ug{ k|of; s]lGb|t ul/g'k5{ / vf;u/L pRr vfB ;'/Iff cfof]hgf sfof{Gjog ul//x]sf] 5 . t/, of] cfof]hgfn] kxf8 / kxf8df pRr d"Nosf afnLx? pTkfbg ug]{ ;Lk ljsf;df dWoklZrd / ;'b/ " klZrdsf kxf8L / lxdfnL lhNnfx?nfO{ dfq s]lGb|t x'gk' 5{ . l;+rfOsf sf/0f pTkfbsTjdf cfpg] ptf/r9fj ;d]6s ] f] 5 . of] sfo{qmdnfO{ /fi6«JofkL?kdf lj:tf/ ul/g'k5{ . t/fO{df -)=#!_ lxdfn / kxf8L s[lif kof{j/0fLo If]qx?df /, ljleGg lhNnfaLr pTkfbsTj, k|fljlws kl/jt{g / k|fljlws -)=)*_ eGbf ;fk]IftM pRr 5 . >dsf] k|of]usf cfwf/df s[lif k|efjsfl/tf kl/jt{gaLr dxÎjk"0f{ km/sx? ljBdfg /x]sfn] pTkfbgdf cfpg] km/s eg] kxf8 tyf lxdfnL If]qdf t/fO{sf] -cyjf, ls;fgx?n] k|efjsf/L 9+un] gofF k|ljlwnfO{ cjnDag t'ngfdf a9L 5 . o:tf] nrstf lxdfndf )=##, kxf8df )=@) u/]sfn]_ Pp6} s[lif kof{j/0fLo If]qleq klg k|:tfljt /fli6«o / t/fO{df )=)^ /x]sf] 5 . lxdfndf a9L pTkfbgzLn ls;fgx? sfo{qmdnfO{ o:tf km/s Nofpg] sf/sx?sf] a9L ;'ema'emsf ltgsf sd k|efjsf/L ;xsdL{x?sf] t'ngfdf a9L ;3g?kn] cfwf/df cl3 a9fOg'k5{ . >d k|of]u u5{g  \ . /, kxf8df ;aeGbf a9L pTkfbgzLn ls;fgx?n], pgLx?sf sd k|efjsf/L ;xsdL{sf] t'ngfdf *&= s[lif Joj;fodf vf]h cg';Gwfgsf] lj:tf/ / lghL ;fk]IftM a9L sL6gfzs / >d k|of]u u5{ . t/fO{ If]qdf ;aeGbf nufgL clej[l4 ug{, k/Dk/fut ls;fgx?sf nflu dfq pTkfbgzLn ls;fgx? pgLx?sf ;xsdL{sf] t'ngfdf k"h F Lut xf]Og, :jb]z kms]{sf cfk|jf;L sfdbf/sf nflu klg ;DklQsf] pRr k|of]u u/]/ v]tLafnL nufpF5g\ . oL lgisif{x?sf] ljQLo If]qsf afwfx? x6fpg' dxŒjk"0f{ 5 . k/Dk/fut cGt/lglxt dxÎj s] xf] eg], pTkfbgsf ;fwgx? ;a}lt/ plQs} ls;fgx?nfO{ dfq xf]Og, g]kfnsf ;aeGbf cg';Gwfgd'vL / dxÎjk"0f{ 5g\, tfklg a[xt\ cfwf/ ePsf] pTkfbsTj j[l4 ug]{ k|fljlws?kn] ;Lk xfl;n u/]sf ls;fgx? hf] Oh/fon, hfkfg, /fli6«o sfo{qmdrflxF pTkfbgsf ;fwgx?sf] pTkfbsTjaf/]sf oL sf]l/of / dWok"jL{ b]zx?sf v]taf/Ldf sfd u/]/ k|ToIf 1fg km/saf/] hfgsf/ x'gk ' 5{ . / cTofw'lgs Pjd\ k"h F Lk|wfg pTkfbg k|0ffnLsf] s[lifdf cg'ej lnP/ kmls{Psf 5g\ tL ;a}nfO{ cfly{s d'2fx?n] uDeL/ afwf *(=  ;/sf/sf] dn cg'bfg sfo{qmddf ;'wf/ u/]/ dnvfb kf/]sf] 5 . t'ngfTds?kn] cToGt yf]/s } f] dfq hldgdfly k|of]udf klg ;'wf/ Nofpg] xf] eg] o;n] g]kfnsf] s[lif :jfldTj 5, To;}sf/0f pgLx? a}s + sf lwtf] /fVg] k|fjwfg k"/f pTkfbgdf pTkfbsTj, gfkmf / jftfj/0fLo lbuf]kgnfO{ ug{ ;Sb}g . pgLx?n] ljb]zdf sfd ubf{ ;+slnt u/]sf] /sd clej[l4 ug]{5 . o;n] cg'bfg sfo{qmdnfO{ yk k|efjsf/L dfq nufgL x'g] x'b F f nufgLof]Uo /sd cToGt} ;Lldt x'G5 . 9+un] nlIft ul/g' cfjZos 5 eGg] b]vfpF5, h;n] ubf{ of] h] xf];,\ o;/L kms]/ { cfpg]x? kl/jt{gsf lg0ff{os ;+jfxs ;'ljwfsf] nfe tL ls;fgn] dfq kfpg\, hf] cg'bfglagf dnvfb } ] clxn] g} cfkm";u x'g,\ h;dWo] w]/n F ePsf] 1fgnfO{ l5d]sL vl/b ug{ ;Ifd x'b } g\ . o;nfO{ k|foM r':t cg'bfg (smart Fg / sn]hsf ljBfyL{;Dd klg afFl8/x]sf 5g\ . oL ultljlwx? subsidy) elgG5, h;n] ahf/ d"Nodf dn lsGg ;Sg] / g;Sg] g} sltkosf nflu yk cfosf] ;|ft ] ePsf] 5 . oLdWo] w]/} ls;fgaLrsf] km/s dfq b]vfpg] 5}g, nfeu|fxLx?nfO{ dnvfb ;+ul7t klg ePsf 5g\ . ! ;o ;b:oLo ‘g]kfn Jofj;flos / To;nfO{ 7Ls 9+un] k|of]u ug]{ ljlwaf/] hfGg klg afWo agfpg] s[ifs ;+3’df *) k|ltzt o;/L kms]/ { cfPsf s[ifs ;b:o 5 . o:tf] r':t cg'bfg lghLIf]qdfkm{t\ klg ef}r/ / ljB'tLo ef}r/ pRr cf/f]x0fM dWocfo d'n'stkm{sf] lbzfdf 39 k|0ffnL k|of]u u/]/ ljt/0f ug{ ;lsG5 . a'ls{gf kmf;f], cfOef]/L (!=  o:tf ;/;kmfO / pTkfbg :jf:Yo u'0f:t/ -P;kLP;_ sf]i6, nfOa]l/of, gfOh]l/of / ;]gu ] nh:tf cGo ljsf;zLn ;DjGwL cGt/f{li6«o dfkb08x?sf] kfngf ug]{ g]kfnsf] d'ns { cf/De ul/Psf] 5 . ' df o:tf] k|0ffnL ;kmntfk"js Ifdtfsf] ljifo g]kfnsf ;/sf/L lgsfoaLr ;DalGwt hfgsf/Laf/] ;dGjo ug]{ ljifo;“u klg k|ToIf?kn] ()=  cfGtl/s / afx\o b'j} ahf/sf nflu k|lt:kwL{ ;DalGwt 5 . o;sf] cy{ xf], P;kLP; ;"rgf Joj:yfkg Ifdtfsf] clej[l4 dxŒjk"0f{ 5 . cfGtl/s d"No clej[l4 k|0ffnL ljsl;t ul/g'k5{ h;n] ;DalGwt hf]lvdaf/] + nf (domestic value chain) sf] ;anLs/0f ug'{ dxÎjk"0f{ 5 . z[v lhDd]jf/ dGqfno / lgsfox?aLr hfgsf/L tTsfn / o;n] ubf{ t'ngftds nfe ePsf If]qdf :jb]zL pTkfbgx?n] Jojl:yt?kn] cfbfgk|bfg ug{ ;lsof];\ . o:tf] of]hgfsf] cfoft;Fu k|lt:k3f{ ug{ ;S5g\ . To:t}u/L, lgof{tsf] lj:tf/sf sfof{Gjog ug{sf nflu lgu/fgLstf{x?sf] tfnLd / lghL nflu k"jf{wf/df nufgL ug{ tyf g]kfnL pTkfbgx?sf] ljb]zL pTkfbs, Jofkf/L / lgofdsx?aLrsf] ;fe]mbf/L, b'j} s'/fsf] ahf/ kx'r F sf nflu cfjZos kg]{ ljleGg k|sf/sf ;/;kmfO cfjZostf hf]l8P/ cfpF5 . o;sf] cy{, lgoldt ;~rf/sf] / pTkfbg :jf:Yo u'0f:t/ (sanitary and phyto-sanitary dfWod -Rofgn_ :yfkgf ug'{ klg xf], h;n] ubf{ pgLx?nfO{ standards, P;kLP;_ xfl;n u/]sf] k|dfl0ft ug{sf nflu ;xh -cfk\mgf sfo{qmdx?sf] kfngfaf/]_ ;+o'Qm hfFrk8\tfndf ;'wf/ lgofds jftfj/0f cfjZos 5 . cb'jf, lrof / c? w]/} s[lif ug{ ;Ifd agfpF5 . o;n] k|of]zfnf / k/LIf0f ;'ljwfx?sf] pkh g]kfnsf] l;dfgfdf cnkq k/]sf xfn}sf pbfx/0fx?n] ;Ifdtfdf pNn]Vo ;'wf/ Nofpg] sfd klg ;fy;fy} u5{ . clxn] of] ljifonfO{ tTsfn ;Daf]wg ug'kg]{ b]vfPsf] 5 . oLdWo], eO/x]sf k|of]uzfnfx?df cf}hf/ pks/0fx? / pRr:t/sf], pTkfbsx?n] cl3Nnf] pTkfbgsf] df};daf6 ;l~rt u/]sf ls6fgLo'Qm kl/0ffd lbg] b'j} s'/fsf] cefj 5 . pbfx/0fsf aLplahg k|of]u ug]{ clxn]sf] k|rngnfO{ abNg' klxnf] k|fyldstf nflu, s]Gb|Lo vfB cg';Gwfg k|of]uzfnfsf] k/LIf0f ljlw @& x'gk' 5{ . pbfx/0fsf nflu, oxL k|rngsf sf/0f g]kfndf b'O{ j6f dfkgdf ;Lldt 5 / o;n] ;"Id hLjf0f' jf ef/L wft'o'Qm d'Vo k|sf/sf cb'jfdf dfq g]kfndf pTkfbg eO/x]sf 5g\ . k|b"ifsx?sf] k/LIf0f ub}{g . lgof{t ahf/sf ljleGg dfkb08sf] of] ;d:ofnfO{ ;Daf]wg ug]{ ljifon] /fli6«o aLplahg ljsf; kfngfsf nflu o:tf k/LIf0f Ifdtf dxÎjk"0f{ 5g\ . o;}sf/0f, sfo{qmd agfpg] cfjZostf b]vfpF5, h;n] pTkfbsx?nfO{ g]kfnsf pTkfbgx?sf] k|j4{g / cGttf]uTjf lgof{t ahf/df ;'wfl/Psf k|hfltsf aLplahg cfk"lt{ u5{ / of] sfo{qmd g} kx'Fr kfpg o:tf k/LIf0fx? cfjZos 5g\ . cGo ljljw a:t'sf pTkfbsnfO{ ;]jf k'¥ofpg] /fli6«o sfo{qmdsf] g} Pp6f lx:;f x'g ;S5 . ;a} d'Vo s[lif / afuafgLhGo (@= ;du|df, g]kfnn] cfk\mgf] s[lif If]qleqdf lglxt Go"g pTkfbgx?sf] d"No clej[l4 z[v + nfdf sL6gf;s z]ifx?, /f]u, k|ltkmn / Go"g pTkfbsTjsf ljleGg sf/0fnfO{ ;Daf]wg ;"Id ljiffbL, lhjf0f' / ef/L wft'sf cjojx? /x]–g/x]sf] k/LIf0f ug'{ cfjZos 5 . lgjf{xd'vL s[lifsf sf/0f ;'wfl/Psf] k|ljlw ug{sf nlu Pp6f sfo{of]hgf g} agfpg ;s] g]kfnnfO{ yk cjnDagsf] Go"g b/, pko'Qm -afnL nufpg] / leqfpg] b'jv } fn]_ nfebfos x'G5 . -of] p2]Zosf nflu sf]8S ] L ] ; dfkb08 / o'/f]kn F sf] bogLo cj:yf, s[lif ;fdu|Lx? -/f]Kg] ;fdu|L, k|ljlwsf] kx'r ;+3sf] cfjZostf ;DaGwL ljj/0fx?n] /fd|f] ;Gbe{ vfsf k|bfg kz'kfngsf nflu pGgt aLh, dnvfb, hgfj/sf] bfgf Pjd\ u5{_ . o;n] s[ifsx?nfO{ pRr d"No nfe x'g] c? b]zsf vf; kz'sf] :jf:Yo ;'/Iff, l;+rfO{, ljB't, ljQLo ;]jf_sf] ;Lldt ahf/x?sf ljz]if cfjZostf k"/f ug]{ lbzfdf cufl8 a9fpF5 pknAwtf / o; If]qdf ;Lldt dfq nufgL x'g ;s]sf] h:tf eg] :jb]zL pkef]Qmfsf] vfB ;'/Iffdf klg ;'wf/ NofpF5 . cj:yfdf ;'wf/ Nofpg ;Sg'k5{ . pRr cf/f]x0fM dWocfo d'n'stkm{sf] lbzfdf 40 pRr cf/f]x0fM dWocfo d'n'stkm{sf] lbzfdf 41 pRr cf/f]x0fM dWocfo d'n'stkm{sf] lbzfdf 42 cWofo 5 hgtfdf nufgL “ L g]kfnsf] ;an / lbuf] cfly{s ljsf;sf] nflu yk dfgj k"h a[l4 u/L pTkfbg k|of]hgdf Nofpg' dxÎjk"0f{ 5 . (#= dfly cWofo ‘b'O{’ df pNn]v ul/Pe}m,+ g]kfn Go"g cfly{s j[l4 / pRr cfk|jf;gsf] w/fkdf c8\lsPh:tf] b]lvG5 . P]ltxfl;s ?kn] g} Go"g /x]sf] cfly{s j[l4sf sf/0f :jb]zd} /f]huf/Lsf cj;/x?sf] cefjsf] cj:yf l;h{gf u/]sf] 5 . /, o;n] cfk|jf;g -d'ns ' af6 aflxl/g]_sf] k|jfxnfO{ a9fPsf] 5 . >dsf] o:tf] cfk|jf;gn] k|ltJolQm cfo / s'ufpsf] t'ngfdf 7"nf] dfqfdf ljk|i ] f0f cfk|jfx ePsf] 5  . tyflk, 7"nf] ;+Vofsf] cfk|jf;g Pjd\ To;};u F hf]l8P/ cfpg] ljk|i ] f0fn] k|lt:kwL{ IfdtfnfO{ qmdzM Ifof]Gd'v agfpg of]ubfg u/]sf] 5 -jf:tljs ljlgdo b/ j[l4dfk{mt\_, Go"g pTkfbsTjo'Qm ;]jf If]qsf] j[l4nfO{ a9fPsf] 5 . yk, oL k|jl[ Qx?n] :jb]zd} a9L pTkfbgzLn /f]huf/L l;h{gf ug'k { g]{ bafanfO{ 36fPsf] 5 . kl/0ffd:j?k, of] rqmn] g]kfnsf ljBdfg / bL3{sfnLg r'gf}tLx?nfO{ yk hl6n agfpF5 h;n] g]kfnsf] k|lt:kwL{ Ifdtf x|f; u5{, cfly{s j[l4nfO{ yk sdhf]/ agfpF5, :jb]zleqsf cj;/x?nfO{ kf5{ . oL ;a} sf/0fx?nfO{ ;d]6b \ fsf] cy{ s] nfU5 eg] g]kfn, h'g ;+;f/sf ;aeGbf pBdzLn / ;fx;L dflg;x? a:g] d'ns ' x'b F } klg, Go"g cfly{s j[l4 / pRr cfk|jf;gsf] ;xlaGb'df cfufdL F fx'b sof}+ jif{;Dd c8\ls/xg ;S5 . ($= d"No clej[l4sf b[li6n] cy{tGqdf s[lifsf] of]ubfg lgs} 36]/ uof], hals /f]huf/Ldf ;f]xLcg'?ksf] ;dfg'kflts ?kfGt/0f ePg. cfly{s aif{ !((( / cfly{s jif{ @)!# sf aLrdf ;]jf If]qsf] /f]huf/L jflif{s % k|ltztn] a9\of], hals of] j[l4 pBf]u / s[lif If]qdf qmdzM @=^ / )=& k|ltztn] dfq /x\of] . /fli6«o d"No clej[l4sf] em08} cfwf lx:;f ;]jf If]qsf] 5, hals s'n /f]huf/Lsf] @@ k|ltztdfq ;]jf If]qdf 5 -lrq r !_ . s[lif If]q s'n /f]huf/Lsf] ^& k|ltzt cf]u6]/ ;aeGbf 7"nf] /f]huf/bftf sfod 5, t/ o;n] cy{tGqdf s'n d"No clej[l4sf] PsltxfO dfq of]ubfg u/]sf] 5 . (%= ;]jf If]qsf] j[l4 ckl/kSj?kn] cl3 a9]sf sf/0f cfly{s ;DefJotfx? ;+s'lrt ePsf 5g\ . ;]jf If]qtk{msf] o:tf] ckl/kSj j[l4sf] Pp6f gsf/fTds c;/ s] ePsf] 5 eg], ;g\ !((% b]lv @)!) sf] cfjlwdf cy{tGqsf] kfl/>ldso'Qm /f]huf/Ldf ;Lksf] kIf clej[l4 ePsf] 5}g . Jofj;flos ;]jf / pTkfbgzLn If]qsf] /f]huf/L a9]sf] 5 tfklg of] Go"g ;Lko'Qm dfq 5 . o:tf] ckl/kSj ?kfGt/0fsf] Pp6f ;sf/fTds :yfgfGt/0fsf] c;/ eg] b]lvPsf] 5M sfdbf/x? pRr cf/f]x0fM dWocfo d'n'stkm{sf] lbzfdf 43 lrq r ! M If]qut b[li6n] /f]huf/Lsf] c+z, ;g\ !((( b]lv ;g\ @)!# lrq r @ M If]qut b[li6df k|lt sfdbf/ d"No clej[l4 (value added per worker) ;g\ @))! b]lv ;g\ @)!# -k|ltzt, lx:;f_ -;g\ @))% sf] l:y/ 8n/ d"Nodf, k|lt Ps xhf/ dflg;sf] b; nfv 8n/_ !@) #=) s[lif pBf]u ;]jf !((! @))! @))* @)!# !)) @=% *) @=) ^) !=% $) !=) @) )=% ) )=) !((( @))! @))* @)!# s[lif pBf]u ;]jf ;|f]tM ljZj ljsf; ;"rsf+s / ljZj a}+s sd{rf/Lx?sf] u0fgf  ;|f]tM ljZj ljsf; ;"rsf+s / ljZj a}+s sd{rf/Lx?sf] u0fgf  s[lif sfo{af6 aflx/ lg:s]/ zx/L ;]jf If]qdf a9L pTkfbgzLn sfdsf] vf]hLdf 5g\ . oBlk, zx/L ;]jf If]qsf] 36\bf] pTkfbsTjsf g]kfn o'jf hgzlQm pef/sf] sf/0f gsf/fTds c;/ ePsf] b]lvG5 . lsgeg], oL /f]huf/L klg r/0fdf k|j]z u/]sf] 5– of] hg;f+lVos clnslt -l;dfGt?kn]_ dfq} /fd|f ePsfn] 7"nf] ?kfGt/0f b]lvPsf] nfesf] cj;/ xf] 5}g -lrq r @_ . o;/L, of] c:jfefljs ;+/rgfut ?kfGt/0fn], bL3{sfndf b|t' cfly{s j[l4sf] lg0ff{os dflgg] s'n pTkfbsTjsf] (&= g]kfn o'jf hgzlQm pef/ (youth bulge) sf] r/0fdf j[l4nfO{ c;/ k'¥ofpg ;S5 . 5– o;n] cfly{s j[l4nfO{ ;3fpg ;Sg] hg;f+lVos (demographic dividend) nfesf] ;DefJotf b]vfp“5 . (^= o;sf cltl/Qm, 7"nf] dfqfdf ePsf] >dsf] ;g\ @))$ af6 z'? eP/ g]kfnsf] hg;+Vofsf] cfo' ;+/rgfdf alxd'{vL cfk|jf;gn] :jb]zleq} pTkfbgzLn /f]huf/L kl/jt{g b]lvPsf] 5 . sfd ug]{ pd]/sf] hg;+Vofsf] lx:;f l;h{gf ug'{kg]{ bafa / cfly{s j[l4sf] OlGhgsf ?kdf gug]{sf] eGbf 7"nf] 5 / o;n] lge{/tf cg'kftnfO{ sd u/]sf] zx/Ls/0fsf] bafanfO{ 36fPsf] x'g ;S5 . ;g\ @))& 5 . of] k|hgg b/df cfPsf] ;':ttfsf] kl/0ffd xf] h'g ;g\ df åGå ;dfKt ePotf >dzlQm x/]s aif{ cf};tdf # nfv !((% df cfdf aGg] pd]/sf k|ltdlxnf $=(& s]6fs]6Lsf] #) xhf/ gjk|jz ] Lsf] ;+Vofn] j[l4 ePsf] 5 . of] !^ jif{ / ^% cf};t 36]/ ;g\ @)!% df @=#@ s]6fs]6L k|ltdlxnf ePsf] jif{ pd]/aLrsf -sfd ug]{ pd]/sf_ hg;+Vofsf] km/s xf] . t/, 5 . ;fy}, g]kfnsf] hg;+Vof j[l4b/ o; If]qdf g} ;aeGbf sd ;f]xL cjlwdf >dzlQmsf] alxu{dg x/]s jif{ cf};tdf # nfv 5 -lrq r %_ . h'g cjlwdf hg;+Vofdf o'jfdflysf] lge{/tf &% xhf/ 5, h;n] >dzlQmsf] j[l4b/nfO{ pl5g]sf] 5 . o;n] 36\bf] qmddf x'G5, sfd ug]{ pd]/sf] hg;+Vofsf] lx:;f a9\5 ubf{ g]kfnleqsf] dfgj k"h F Ldf x|f; cfPsf] b]lvG5 -lrq r #_ . / a'9fa'9Lx?sf] cg'kft ce}m ;fgf] x'G5 tL b]zx?nfO{ cem}, ax';V+ os cfk|jf;gdf hfg] sfdbf/x? #% jif{dl' gsf o'jf hg;f+lVos cj;/sf] pRr r/0fdf k|j]z u/]sf] dflgG5 . 5g\ -lrq r $_ . a9\bf] zx/Ls/0fn] cfly{s ultljlwx?nfO{ hg;f+lVos nfe eg]sf] ToxL xf] . o:tf] cj:yf ;fdfGotM PsLs[t u/]/ pTkfbsTjnfO{ a9fpg ;S5 . ;d"xs[t cy{tGq ;Lldt cjlw dfq sfod /xG5 . lsgls, hg;++Vofsf] pd]/ (agglomeration economies) n] vf;u/L pTkfbgzLn / ;]jf a9\b} uPkl5 clxn]sf] h:tf] 36\bf] lge{/tf cg'kft -k]ml/_ If]qsf] pTkfbsTjdf ;'wf/ / /f]huf/L l;h{gfnfO{ a9fpg ;S5 . plN6G5 -lge{/x?sf] ;+Vof, z"Gob]lv !$ jif{ / ^% jif{dflysf] t/, oL ;Defljt zlQmx? 7"nf] dfqfdf >dzlQm aflx/Psf hg;+Vof / s'n hg;+Vof Pjd\ !$ b]lv ^$ jif{sf] hg;+Vofsf] sf/0f bljPsf] h:tf] 5 . cg'kft -lrq r ^_ . pRr cf/f]x0fM dWocfo d'n'stkm{sf] lbzfdf 44 lrq r # M cfk|jf;g b/n] >d ahf/df lelqg] b/nfO{ pl5g]sf] 5 lrq r $ M ax';+Vos cfk|jf;Lx? #% jif{eGbf sd pd]/sf 5g\ -xhf/df_ -k|ltzt lx:;f_ ^)) !)) #^ jif{ () dfly %)) cfk|jf;L sfdbf/ *) $)) &) @% b]lv @% jif{ pd]/ >d zlQm ^) #)) -gj k|j]zL, new entrants_ %) $) @)) #) !)) @) !^ b]lv #% jif{ pd]/ !) ) ) @)!# @))* @))( @)!) @)!! @)!@ @)!$ @)!# @)!$ @)!% ;|f]t M ljZj ljsf; ;"rsf+s / j}b]lzs /f]huf/ ljefu  ;|f]t M j}b]lzs /f]huf/ ljefu  lrq r % M blIf0f Pl;ofdf hg;+Vof j[l4 lrq r ^ M g]kfnsf] cfo' lge{/tf cg'kft (age dependency ratio) -k|ltzt kl/jt{g_ -sfd ug]{ pd]/sf] hg;+Vofsf] k|ltzt_ #=% () a+unfb]z ef/t g]kfn kfls:tfg blIf0f Pl;of #=) *) @=% &) lge{/tf cg'kft @=) ^) !=% %) !=) $) )=% #) !(() !((! !((@ !((# !(($ !((% !((^ !((& !((* !((( @))) @))! @))@ @))# @))$ @))% @))^ @))& @))* @))( @)!) @)!! @)!@ @)!# @)!$ @)!% !(() !((@ !(($ !((^ !((* @))) @))@ @))$ @))^ @))* @)!) @)!@ @)!$ ;|f]tM ljZj ljsf; ;"rsf+s ;|f]tM ljZj ljsf; ;"rsf+s (*= hg;f+lVos ?kfGt/0f (demographic transition) df F Lsf] of]ubfg, h'g bL3{sfnLg k|sl[ tsf] x'g ;S5, nfO{ ‘bf];f| ] k"h d'n'snfO{ ;xh} nfesf/L x'g] b'O{j6f ‘hg;f+lVos nfe’ hg;f+lVos nfe’ dfGg ;lsG5 . 5g\ . ha d'ns ' sf] k|hgg b/ 36\5, hg;+Vofdf s]6fs]6Lsf] lx:;f sd x'G5 / sfd ug]{ pd]/sf] hg;+Vofsf] lx:;f a9\5 . ((= hg;f+lVos ?kfGt/0fsf b[li6n] clxn] g]kfnnfO{ /, j[4j[4fsf] c+z ;fgf] /xG5 . o:tf] nfesf] dfqfrflxF ylkPsf] ‘k|f/lDes nfek|fks’ d'n'ssf ?kdf juL{s/0f ul/Psf] 5 . >dzlQmn] kfpg] pTkfbgd"ns /f]huf/Lsf] Jofkstfdf lge{/ ljZj a}s + sf] ljZj cg'udg k|ltj]bg -Unf]an dflg6l/ª l/kf]6{ ;g\ u5{ . o;nfO{ ‘klxnf] hg;f+lVos nfe’ eGg ;lsG5 . o;kl5 @)!%÷!^_n] ljZjJofkL hg;f+lVos kl/jt{gnfO{ k/LIf0f u/]sf] klg sfd ug]{ pd]/sf] hg;+Vofsf] lx:;f a9\g] qmd hf/L /xFbf 5 . a}s + n] agfPsf] ljlwn] x/]s d'ns ' nfO{ o;sf] hg;f+lVos d'ns ' x? 7"nf] dfqfsf] dfgj Pjd\ ef}lts k"h F L l;h{gf u/]/ k|jl[ Qcg';f/ juL{s/0f u/]sf] 5 . g]kfnnfO{ ‘k|f/lDes nfek|fks’ pRr b/df art / nufgL xfl;n ug]{ cj:yfdf x'G5g\ . o:tf] d'ns ' sf ?kdf juL{s/0f lsg ul/Psf] xf] eg] of] kl/efiffcg';f/, pRr cf/f]x0fM dWocfo d'n'stkm{sf] lbzfdf 45 ‘ha d'ns ' sf] k|hgg b/ k|ltdlxnf rf/ s]6fs]6Lsf] hGdeGbf / >d clwsf/x?nfO{ dxÎj lbg] k|sl[ tsf ;fj{hlgs ;]jfnfO{ sd x'G5 ta Tof] d'ns ' hg;f+lVos ?kfGt/0f df]8n ] cg'?k ] g\ . ;anLs[t ug]{ x'g5 cufl8 al9/x]sf] x'g] ;Defjgf /xG5 / ;f] d'ns ' n] hg;+Vofdf o'jfsf] lx:;f b|t ' ultn] 36]sf] cg'ej ug{ ;S5g\ . oL k|f/lDes !)@=  t/ d'n'sx?n] o:tf] hg;f+lVos nfesf] nfek|fks d'ns ' x? x'g  \ .’ -ljZj a}s + , @)!^;L, k[i7 @^*_ . cj;/nfO{ ;fFlRrs} u'dfpg] u/]sf] Oltxf;n] b]vfPsf] 5. hg;f+lVos nfesf] kmfObf p7fpg] cj;/ ;Lldt !))= o:tf] hg;f+lVos nfe kfpgsf nflu oL kmfObf ;dofjlwleq dfq pknAw x'G5 h'g cj;/sf] åf/ sfd ug]{ p7fpg ;Sg] gLltlgodx? tTsfn sfof{Gjog ug'{ k':tf a'9f] x'Fb} uPkl5 aGb x'G5 . pbfx/0fsf nflu, aL;f}+ cfjZos 5 . of] tTsfnsf] cfjZostf lsg xf] eg], o:tf] ztfAbLsf] cGTolt/ k"jL{ Pl;ofdf hg;f+lVos nfe b]lvPsf] o'jf pef/sf nflu cfjZos kl/l:ylt l;h{gf ug]{ ;dofjlwsf] lyof] . s'ufpdf ;ft u'0ff j[l4 eof] h'g cfly{s pef/nfO{ cj;/ ;fk]IftM 5f]6f] x'G5 . of] ;dofjlwdf klxnf] hg;f+lVos ‘k"jL{ Pl;ofnL cfly{s rdTsf/’ gfds/0f ul/of] t/, o;} nfeaf6 k|ltkmn lng] p2]Zon], sfd ug]{ pd]/sf] hg;+VofnfO{ ;dodf blIf0f cd]l/sfdf s'ufp b'O{ u'0ffn] dfq a9\of] . pTkfbgzLn cj;/x? l;h{gf ug{sf nflu d'ns ' x? /f]huf/L oL d'n'sx?n] c;dfg z}lIfs nufgLnufotsf ljleGg l;h{gfnfO{ tLj|ultdf cl3 a9fpg] k|of; k/dk/fut?kdf g} sf/x?0fn] ubf{ hg;f+lVos nfeaf6 kmfObf lng ;s]gg\ . u5{g  \ . a9\bf] ;+Vofsf o'jfnfO{ o:tf cj;/x? lbg ;lsPg eg] jt{dfg / eljiosf] cfly{s ;DefJotfdf gsf/fTds c;/ k5{ / !)#=  b]zleq} cj;/x?sf] l;h{gf ug'{sf cltl/Qm d'ns' sf] ;fdflhs agf]6dfly bafa kg{ hfG5 . hg;f+lVos nfenfO{ d"t{?k lbgsf nflu hgtfdfly nufgL ug{' cfjZos x'G5 . a[xt\ cy{tGqsf b[li6n] cu|ufdL !)!= g]kfnsf] ;Gbe{df ;g\ @)%) b]lv k/lge{/tfsf] lrGtg ubf{, cfufdL jif{x?df hg;+Vofdf cfpg] kl/jt{g cyjf cg'kft k]ml/ a9\g z'? x'g] cg'dfg ul/Psfn] bf];|f] sfd ug]{ pd]/sf hg;+Vofsf] a9\bf] lx:;fn] yk dxÎjk"0f{ cfly{s hg;f+lVos nfenfO{ ;xhLs/0f ug]{ k|s[ltsf gLltx? e"ldsf v]Ng ;S5 . o;n] lbg] ;sf/fTds k|efj o'jf kof{Kt sfof{Gjog ug{ h?/L ePsf] 5. hg;+Vofdf a'9o \ f}nL z'? dfqfdf lzlIft eP–gePsf] s'/fdf lge{/ u5{ . klxn]eGbf w]/} x'g' klxn] g} g]kfnn] eljiosf] bf];f| ] hg;f+lVos nfenfO{ ;Dej ;Lk, lzIff / k|fljlws bIftf dfu x'g] ljZjJofkL sfo{:ynsf] agfpg] k|sl[ tsf gLltx? -clxn] g}_ sfof{Gjog ug'k { 5{ . o:tf k|lt:kwf{df ;kmntf kfpg o'jf hg;+VofnfO{ lzIff / cg'ej gLltx?n] artnfO{ k|fT ] ;flxt ug'k5{ / Tof] artnfO{ dfgj / xfl;n ug]{ cj;/x?sf] cfjZostf k5{ . o;sf cltl/Qm, g]kfnn] ef}lts k"hF Lsf] pTkfgzLn nufgLtk{m k|jflxt ug'k { 5{ . o:tf pRr u'0f:t/sf, pTkfbgzLn /f]huf/Lsf gofF pTk|/ ] sx? vf]Hg' gLltx?, lghL If]qsf ultljlw, s/f/ kfngf, cfly{s ;dfj]zLs/0f cfjZos 5 . cWofo ‘tLg’, ‘rf/’ / ‘kfFr’n] g]kfnL o'jfnfO{ lrq r & M kf“r jif]{ pd]/ ;d"xsf cfwf/df g]kfnsf] hg;+Vof, ;g\ @)!% lrq r * M kf“r jif]{ pd]/ ;d"xsf cfwf/df g]kfnsf] hg;+Vof, k|If]lkt, ;g\ @)%) -pd]/ ;d"x_ -pd]/ ;d"x_ !))+ !))+ ()–($ ()–($ *)–*$ *)–*$ k'?if dlxnf k'?if dlxnf &)–&$ &)–&$ ^)–^$ ^)–^$ %)–%$ %)–%$ $)–$$ $)–$$ #)–#$ #)–#$ @)–@$ @)–@$ !)–!$ !)–!$ )–$ )–$ @))) !))) ) !))) @))) @))) !))) ) !))) @))) -xhf/df_ -xhf/df_ ;|f]t M ;+o'Qm /fi6« ;+3 ljZj hg;+Vof k|If]k0f / ljZj a}+s sd{rf/Lx?sf] u0fgf ;|f]t M ;+o'Qm /fi6« ;+3 ljZj hg;+Vof k|If]k0f / ljZj a}+s sd{rf/Lx?sf] u0fgf pRr cf/f]x0fM dWocfo d'n'stkm{sf] lbzfdf 46 :jb]zd} yk cj;/x? s;/L l;h{gf ug{ ;lsG5 eGg]af/] ;'emfj ;f]eGbf dfly pd]/sf %^ k|ltzt dlxnf / @* k|ltzt k'?if k|:t't u/]sf 5g\ . ;fdfGo jfSo klg k9\g jf n]Vg ;Sb}gg\ -o'g: ] sf], @)!%_ . ljBfyL{ c;kmn x'g] lbuf] /f]u g} b]lvPsf] 5 . k|fylds txdf pHHjn cfly{s ;Defjgfx?sf nflu dfgj klg ljBfno 5f]8g \ ] / sIff bf]xf]¥ofpg] b/ pRr 5 . o;sf] cy{ “ L k|uf9Ls/0f ug'{ cfwf/e"t zt{ xf] k"h xf], k|fyldsaf6 lgDgdfWolds / lgDgdfWoldsaf6 dfWoldsdf ] sf], @)!%_ . ;g\ @)!# df, sIff :t/f]Gglt r'gf}tLk"0f{ 5 -o'g: !)$= lzIffdf kx'Fr pNn]Vo?kn] a9]sf sf/0f cf};tdf, * sf] ‘/fli6«o ljBfyL{ k|ltnlAw d"Nof+sg’sf kl/0ffdn] ljBfyL{n] g]kfnL o'jf ljutsf] bfFhf]df a9L lzlIft ePsf 5g\ . ul0ftdf cf};tdf $# k|ltzt dfq c+s NofP -ljZj a}s, ;g\ !(() df )=#$ /x]sf] g]kfnsf] dfgj ljsf; ;"rsf+s ;g\ @)!#;L_ . yk s'/f, ljBfyL{sf] l;sfOsf] pknlAw e"uf]n, ljBfno @)!$ df a9]/ )=%% k'Uof] / k|zf;lgs tYof+sx?n] b]vfPcg';f/ / JolQmut÷kfl/jfl/s rl/qcg'?k pNn]Vo?kn] km/s k5{ k|fylds lzIffdf v'b egf{ b/ ;g\ @)!% df (^=^ k|ltzt -ljZj a}s + , @)!^aL_ . k'us F df ;'wf/ ug]{ p2]Zon] lzIff k|0ffnLdf dxÎjk"0f{ ] f] 5 . kx'r x:If]kx? ePsf] b]lvG5 . ljBfnox? / tfnLdk|fKt lzIfsx? !)*=  o;y{, g]kfnn] ljBfyL{sf] l;sfOsf] k|ltnlAw / ;Lk b'js } f] ;+Vofdf pNn]Vo j[l4 ePsf] 5 . o;n] egf{b/ / lzIffdf xfl;n u/fpg] s'/fdf Wofg s]lGb|t ug'{k5{ . :yfgLo / ;dfj]zLs/0fnfO{ a9fPsf] 5 . ;fy}, g]kfnn] ;]jf k|bfonfO{ ljZjJofkL b[i6fGtx? / ljutsf Pjd\ hf/L sfo{qmdx?af6 :yfgLo txdf ljs]Gb|Ls/0f ug]{ h:tf ;'wf/ sfo{qmd u/]sf] 5 l;s]sf] kf7sf cfwf/df k|fyldsLs/0f u/]/ lzIffsf] /0fgLlt . To;}u/L ul/a, 5fqf / ;LdfGts[t ;d"xsf afnaflnsf nlIft tLgj6f :tDedf s]lGb|t x'gk ' 5{ M !_ x/]s tx– s]Gb|, lhNnf, 5fqj[lQh:tf sfo{qmdx? klg ;~rfngdf NofPsf] 5 . ljBfno / sIffsf]7fsf] ;]jf k|bfonfO{ sfo{kb | z{gLdf cfwfl/t ] ;fxg;Fu ldnfg ul/g', @_ ;'wfl/Psf] ;]jf k|bfosf nflu k|fT !)%= g]kfndf lzIff, ljz]ift k|fylds txkl5sf] lzIffsf k|0ffnLnfO{ ;anLs/0f ul/g' /, #_ >d ahf/df lg/Gt/ / rf}tkmL{ sf/0f cf};t Hofnfb/ pNn]Vo dfqfdf j[l4 x'g] qmd klg Wofg /flvg' . hf/L 5 . lzIffn] lghL hLjgdf Nofpg] ;Defljt nfex?sf] ;du| kl/0ffd x]bf{ pNn]Vo dfqfsf] ul/a lgjf/0fdf ?kfGt/0f !)(= g]kfndf lzIffaf6 /f]huf/Ltk{msf] km8\sf] afwf– x'g] b]lvG5 . o;sf cltl/Qm, lzIffn] dlxnfsf nflu yk cfosf] c8\rgx?n] el/Psf] 5, h;nfO{ u'0f:t/Lo lzIffdfk{mt\ dfWod, csf]{ k':tfsf nflu ;'wfl/Psf] :jf:Yo / lzIff, hf]lvdo'Qm pNn]Vo?kn] ;xh agfpg ;lsG5. s]xL af]lemnf Jojxf/df Go"gLs/0f / o'jfaLr gful/s ;+nUgtf a9fpg]h:tf c8\rgx?df pRr hf]lvdo'Qm (high stake) k/LIff k|0ffnL cGo dxÎjk"0f{ u}/cfly{s nfex? klg lbG5 . ce}m eGg'kbf{, -pQL0f{ eP 7"nf] nfe / cg'QL0f{ x'Fbf hLjg g} aaf{b x'g] pTkfgzLn lzIff / /f]huf/Ln] g]kfnsf] ;fdflhs ;zlQms/0f / k|s[lt_sf] ;+:s[lt, k"/f gul/g] /f]huf/Lk"j{sf tfnLdx?, ;"rgf /fhgLlts :yfloTjnfO{ ;3fpg] 5 . jf hfgsf/Lsf] cefj, cfk|jf;gdf Go"g ;xof]u / pRr lzIffsf] k|fl1s Joj:yfkgsf] s]lGb|s[t :j?knufot 5g\ . !)^= t/, lzIff If]qn] ck]IffeGbf sddfq nfe ljt/0f ug{ g]kfnsf clxn]sf s]xL pRr hf]lvdo'Qm k/LIff k|0ffnLdf ;s]sf] 5, h'g cWoogaf6 kfpg] nfe / ;Lk l;sfOdf b]lvPsf] ;'wf/ eO/x]sf] cj:yf 5 -h:t}M sIff !) kl5sf] dfWolds Go'gtfdf k|ltlalDat x'G5 . ;fj{hlgs lzIff k|0ffnLdf ljBfyL{n] lzIff k/LIff / sIff !@ sf] cGTodf lnOg] k|j]lzsf k/LIff kfpg'kg]{ cg'kftdf dxÎjk"0f{ cfwf/e"t ;Lkx? k|fKt ul//x]sf 5}gg\ . k|0ffnL_ . tyflk, k|ljlws / Jofj;flos lzIff Pjd\ /f]huf/Lk"j{ ;fy}, 7"nf] ;+Vofsf ljBfyL{ uDeL/?kn] hf]lvdo'Qm >d ahf/ / tfnLd ce}m b'n{e 5g\ . ePsfsf] u'0f:t/ Pjd\ ;fGble{stf pRr lzIffsf] ;Defjgf gePsf] cj:yfdf k5fl8 kfl/Psf 5g\ . yk, ;Gb]xf:kb 5 -ljZj a}+s, @)!^;L_ . o;sf cltl/Qm g]kfnsf ;fj{hlgs / lghL ljBfnosf ljBfyL{aLrsf] k/LIff glthfdf b]lvg] o'jfsf] ;"rgf / dfu{bz{gdf sd} kx'Fr 5 . cg'dfg s] 5 7"nf] km/sn] lghL lzIffsf nflu vr{ ug{ g;Sg] o'jfdf ljt[i0f / eg], o'jfsf] 7"nf] lx:;fn] cgf}krfl/s dfWodaf6 g} :jb]zdf alxis[t ePsf] efjnfO{ dnhn ul//x]sf] 5 . /f]huf/L kfpF5g\ . h:t}, of t pgLx? kl/jf/sf] cfocfh{g ug]{ ultljlwdf ;+nUg x'G5g\ cyjf ;xfotfsf nflu kl/jf/ !)&= z}lIfs k|0ffnLn] ljBfyL{df kof{Kt l;sfO / ;Lk jf ldqx?;Fu ;f]wk'5 u5{g\ . ;fgf] lx:;fn] dfq} /f]huf/Lsf pTkfbg ul//x]sf] 5}g . lzIffsf ;a} tx– lzz' sIffb]lv nflu cfj]bg u5{g\ / guGo lx:;fn] dfq sfdsf] vf]hLsf nflu pRr lzIff;Dd– ljBfyL{sf] l;sfO ;aeGbf 7"nf] r'gf}tLsf ?kdf ;/sf/åf/f ;~rflnt /f]huf/L sfof{nox?sf] ;]jf k|of]u u5{g\ /x]sf] 5 . g]kfn hLjg:t/ ;j]I { f0f @)!)÷!! cg';f/ ^ jif{ jf -/fh' / /fhe08f/L, @)!&_ . pRr cf/f]x0fM dWocfo d'n'stkm{sf] lbzfdf 47 !!)= k|f/lDes lzz' :jf:Yo, vf;u/L pd]/cg';f/ prfO{ wgL k~rf+zdf of] b/ !% k|ltzt dfq lyof] -s]Gb|Lo tYof+s ga9\g] ;d:ofnfO{ ;Daf]wg ug{ cfjZos kl/k"/s nufgLn] ljefu, @)!%_ . :jf:Yodf k|ltkmn lbG5 . ;g\ @)!$ df kfFr jif{dl' gsf s]6fs]6Ldf kfFrdWo] tLg -#) k|ltzt_ sd tf}nsf / PsltxfO !!!= kf]if0fsf] cj:yfdf ;'wf/ x'“bf cfly{s ljsf;nfO{ eGbf a9L -#& k|ltzt_ pd]/ cg';f/ prfO{ ga9]sf Pjd\ !! of]ubfg k'U5, lsgeg] s'kf]if0fsf] cfly{s d"No cToGt} pRr k|ltzt prfOcg';f/ tf}n ga9]sf] kfOPsf lyP . kf]if0faf6 kfpg] 5 . g]kfndf cg'dflgt s'ufpsf] @ b]lv # k|ltzt -cd]l/sL 8n/ nfesf] cj:yfdf klg ef}uf]lns / ljsf; If]qx?, ju{÷;DklQsf] @% s/f]8b]lv ;f9] #& s/f]8;Dd_ k|To]s jif{ le6fldg / vlgh cj:yf / z}lIfs :t/cg'?k km/s 5g\ . c? s]6fs]6Lsf] bfFhf]df ck'usf sf/0f gf]S;fg x'G5 . kf]if0fsf] cj:yfdf ;'wf/ Nofpg ;Sg] dWoklZrd kxf8sf s]6fs]6Lx? sd tf}nsf / pd]/cg';f/ ;dofjlw 5f]6f] x'G5 -klxnf] !))) lbgM ue{wf/0fsf] klxnf] lbgb]lv prfO{ ga9]sf a9L kfOPsf lyP . o;sf] ljk/Lt, dWot/fO{df hLjgsf klxnf b'O{ jif{;Dd dfq_ . zf/Ll/s j[l4, dl:t:ssf] ljsf; prfO{cg';f/ tf}n ga9]sf s]6fs]6L pRrtd ;+Vofdf lyP . o:tf / dfgj k"hF L lgdf{0fdf of] cjlwdf k'Ug] Iflt Jofks k|sl[ tsf] / ;a} sdhf]/L– sd tf}n, sd prfO{ ePsf s]6fs]6L zx/sf] clwst/ ck"/0fLo x'G5 . To;}sf/0f, ;a} x:tIf]k cj;/sf] of] bfFhf]df ufpFdf w]/} e]l6g] ;Defjgf /xGYof] . ;aeGbf ul/a ' s ;dodf s]lGb|t x'g ' f ;fy} of] pd]/ ;d"x / aRrf hGdfpg] pd]/sf k~rf+zsf %% k|ltzt s]6fs]6L sd prfO{sf lyP eg] ;aeGbf dlxnfx?df Wofg lbg'k5{ -ljZj a}s + , @)!!_ . pRr cf/f]x0fM dWocfo d'n'stkm{sf] lbzfdf 48 cg';"rL g]kfnsf] ;fj{hlgs nufgL Joj:yfkg -Public Investment Management-kLcfO{Pd_ sf sdhf]/Lx?sf] ljZn]if0f s kLcfO{Pd k|0ffnLdf ck]lIft ;+:yfut / k|lqmofut g]kfnsf] jt{dfg cj:yf Joj:yfx? /0fgLlts dfu{lgb]{zg / k|f/lDes 5gf]6 (Strategic Guidance and Preliminary Screening) k|sflzt ljsf; /0fgLlt cyjf b"/b[li6 cjwf/0ff h;sf] k|lwsf/ /0fgLlts of]hgf, gLlt / ah]6 ljlgof]hgaLr jf:tljs ;DjGw :yflkt b'ljwf/lxt xf];  \. 5}g . ljleGg /0fgLlts, /fli6«o ljsf; of]hgfx? / If]qut of]hgfx? ljsl;t ul/Psf 5g\ . t/, o:tf of]hgfx?sf] u'0f:t/df ;'wf/ ug{ cfjZos k|:tfjx? ljsl;t ug{sf nflu of]hgf cyjf cy{dGqfno 5 . ;a} If]qn] cfk\mgf] /0fgLlts of]hgfx? agfpg] u/]sf 5}gg\ . s]xL [ :jLs[lt k|0ffnL÷dGqfnotxsf] -jf k|Tofof]lht_åf/f s]lGb|st ag]sfx?sdf klg nfut cg'dfg ;a}n] ub}g { g\ . /0fgLlt;lxt cfof]hgfx?sf] k|i6 cf}lrTo k'li6 . cfof]hgf k|:tfj tof/ ug]{ / /fli6«o of]hgf cfof]usf] ;xsfo{df cfof]hgf pTkfbsTj / k|ltkmnsf b[li6n] cfof]hgfsf] p2]Zodf k|i6tf . k|f/lDes 5gf]6 ug]{ If]qut lhDd]jf/L xf] . gofF cfof]hgf k|:tfj kmf/ddf nfut–nfe ljZn]if0f÷nfut k|efjsfl/tf nufotsf ljZn]if0f ;dflji6 p2]Zo k|flKtsf nflu j}slNks cjwf/0ffx?dfly ljrf/  . ug'k{ 5{ . o;f] ug'{ k"0f{ k|f?ksf] ;DefJotf cWoog a/faf/ xf] . t/, ;a} If]qsf of]hgf sd{rf/L / /fli6«o of]hgf cfof]u;Fu oL cfj:yfnfO{ ;Djf]wg ug{ kof{Kt k|fljlws Ifdtf / ;|ft ] x? 5g\ ls 5}gg\ eGg] k|i6 5}g . o;n] s] klg b]vfpF5 eg] 5gf]6 k|lqmofn] clwst/ cf}krfl/tf dfq k"/f ug]{ p2]Zo /fV5 . k"j5 { gf]6s} qmddf c:jLs[t ePsf of]hgfx?sf] klg s'g} tYof+s /flvPsf] 5}g . cf}krfl/s cfof]hgf k"j{d"Nof+sg (Formal Project Apprisal) ;fj{hlgs ul/Psf] / kf/bzL{ dfu{lgb]z { g ;fy} cfof]hgf l8hfOg ‘cfof]hgf Joj:yfkg lgb]l{ zsf’ zLif{ssf] cfof]hgfsf] cf}krfl/s tof/L / / k"jd " ofª\sgsf nflu sd{rf/Lx?sf] k|efjsf/L tfnLd / { N k"jd " of+sg dfu{lgb]z { N { g k'l:tsf /x]sf] 5 . t/ of] k'/fgf] eO;Sof] / ;g\ kb:yfkg (deployment) -cfof]hgf l8hfOgdf ;/f]sf/jfnfx?sf] @))) df klxnf] k|sfzg ePotf To;sf] kl/dfh{g ePsf] 5}g . 7"nf] vr{ k/fdz{;lxtsf]_ ug]{ lgsfox?, vf;u/L k"jf{wf/ If]qn] k"jd " of+sg ;xfossf ?kdf cfk\mgf] { N { gsf] k|of]u . cfof]hgf d"Nof+sgdf dfu{lgb]z k|fljlws dfkb08 ljsl;t u5{g  \ . tyflk, km/s cfsf/ /÷cyjf If]qsf cfof]hgfx?sf nflu k|oQ ' m x'g] k2ltsf af/]df km/s Joj:yfx? ul/Psf] 5}g . of]hgf;Da4 dGqfno, ljefu / lgsfodf dfu{lgb]l{ zsf sof{Gjog ug]{ of]Uo sd{rf/Lx? to 5}gg\ . k"jd { N " of+sgsf qmddf k|:tfjx?dWo] s]xL c+z c:jLs[t ePsf] vf; k|df0fx? klg 5}gg\ . s /fhf/fd cflb -@)!)_sf] dfgs cg';f/ . pRr cf/f]x0fM dWocfo d'n'stkm{sf] lbzfdf 49 kLcfO{Pd k|0ffnLdf ck]lIft ;+:yfut / k|lqmofut g]kfnsf] jt{dfg cj:yf Joj:yfx? :jtGq ;dLIff (Independent review) cfof]hgf d"Nofª\sgsf] a:t'k/stf / u'0f:t/ ;'lglZrttfsf nflu cfof]hgfx? ;"rLs[t / k|fyldsL/0f ug{sf nflu cfof]hgfx?sf] k|fljlws :jtGq hfFrk8\tfn . Pjd\ cfly{s ;DefJotfsf af/]df /fli6«o of]hgf cfof]un] cy{dGqfno / ;DalGwt dGqfnox?;Fu 5nkmn u5{ tfklg, k"j{ ;DefJotf jf ;DefJotf ah]6cl3 g} cfof]hgf d"Nofª\sg sfo{sf] ;dfkg . cWoogx?sf] :jtGq ;dLIff ug]{ cf}krfl/s k|0ffnL sfo{?kdf pkl:yt d"Nofª\sg ePsf cfof]hgfx?sf] ah]6dfly ljrf/ ug{sf nflu ltgsf] 5}g . k|fylstfsf cfwf/df tx lgwf{/0f . ljefusf] txdf ;DxfNg ;lsg] ;–;fgf / yk d"Nof+sg cfjZos kg]{ cfof]hgfx?aLrsf] e"ldsfdf k|i6tf . cfof]hgf 5gf]6 (Project selection) dGqfno:t/sf] gLltut p2]Zosf] lgb]z { cg'?k cof]hgf 5gf}6sf nufgLaf/] ljrf/ ug]{ ljifo /fli6«o of]hgf cfof]u, ;DalGwt dGqfno / cy{ nflu kf/bzL{ dfkb08x? . dGqfnosf] ;+oQ ' m k|lqmof xf] . cfof]hgf 5gf]6 / nufgLsf] clGtd lg0f{o ug]{ clwsf/ eg] dlGqkl/ifb\;u F 5 . cf}krfl/s?kdf /fli6«o of]hgf cfof]u÷cy{ cfof]hgfx?sf] nufgL / -rfn"_ vr{ k'g/fj[lQ x'g] lgolt;d]tnfO{ dGqfnosf] l;kmfl/zdf dlGqkl/ifb\n] of] lg0f{o lnG5 . ;dflji6 ug]{ ;Defjgf;lxtsf] ;'–;+/lrt ah]6 tof/L k|lqmof . t/ nufgL k|fyldsLs/0f ug{sf nflu s'g} kf/bzL{ dfkb08 cl:tTjdf 5}g . ah]6dfk{mt\ nufgL x'gsf nflu d"Nof+sg / :jLs[t ePsf of]hgfx? slxn]sflxF ;/sf/sf km/flsnf] (broad) p2]Zosf gLlt / nIox?nfO{ g}, dfq k?g\ eGg] ;'lglZrttfsf nflu k|efjsf/L lgoGq0f . pbfx/0fsf nflu, cfof]hgf nufgLsf nflu ljrf/ ug]{ cfwf/ aGg ;S5 . 5gf]6 ePsf cfof]hgfx?sf nflu cfof]hgf ;DkGg ePkl5sf] rfn" dWosfnLg vr{ ;+/rgf / ;dfgfGt/ ah]6 lgdf{0fsf] cEof;n] lg/Gt/tf gkfPotf, vr{ cfjZostf;lxtnfO{ ljrf/ u/L kof{Kt nufgL ;'lglZrt ug]  {. F Lut vr{nfO{ PsLs[t ug]{ s'g} ;+oGq ljBdfg 5}g . k'g/fj[lQ x'g] rfn" / k"h cfof]hgf sfof{Gjog (Project implementation) cfof]hgf sfof{Gjogsf nflu k|sflzt dfu{lgb]l{ zsf . ;a} If]qx?df k|of]u x'g ;Sg], s'g} k|sf/sf] dfgs ;~rfng dfu{lgb]l{ zsf cyjf lgodk'l:tsf s]Gb|Lo ;/sf/sf] txdf cl:tTjdf 5}g . If]qx? cyjf vl/b / s/f/dfk{mt\ nfut k|efjsfl/tfo'Qm -;:tf]_ sfof{Gjog . vr{ ug]{ d'Vo ljefux?n] cfk\mg} dfu{lgb]l{ zsf agfpg ;Sg]5g\ . o;n] ubf{ dfu{lgb]l{ zsf cg'?k ;dod} sfof{Gjog . s/f/ kfngfsf] s8fO{ / cfof]hgf Joj:yfkgdf Ps?ktfsf] cefj 5 . cfof]hgf Joj:yfkg ljz]if1tf kfpg d'l:sn 5 / cfof]hgf Joj:yfkssf] d'Vo cfof]hgfx?sf] ;dod} cfof]hgf sfof{Gjog k|ltj]bg . kl/jt{g clt g} l56f] x'g] u/]sf] 5 . 5gf]6 ePsf cfof]hgfx?sf nflu k|efjsf/L cfoJoj Joj:yf . gofF ;fj{hlgs vl/b P]g / lgodfjnL -@)^#_ nfu" ePkl5 vl/bdf cxd\ k|ult ePsf] 5 . tyflk, k|lt:kwL{ af]nsaf]nsf] :jefj}n] g} sfg"gL l5b|x? /x]sf 5g\, h;n] ;do / nfutnfO{ a9fO/x]sf 5g\ . sfof{Gjog k|ltj]bgx? tof/ ul/G5g\, t/ ltgn] nufgL lg/Gt/tf cyjf hf/L cfof]hgfx?sf] sfof{Gjogdf s'g} k|ToIf c;/ kfb}g { g\ . If]qx?n] jflif{s nfutsf] cg'udg u5{g,\ t/ Tof] jf:tljs nfut lgoGq0fdf Fg cg'lbt x'b}  . nfut a9\bf Joj:yfkgn] sf/afxL ug{ cfjZos x'G5, t/ yk nfutsf] ;Ldf tf]Sg] cEof; :yflkt ePsf] 5}g . pRr cf/f]x0fM dWocfo d'n'stkm{sf] lbzfdf 50 kLcfO{Pd k|0ffnLdf ck]lIft ;+:yfut / k|lqmofut g]kfnsf] jt{dfg cj:yf Joj:yfx? cfof]hgf ;dfof]hg (Project adjustment) ;lqmo cg'udg . ljleGg txsf cg'udg tyf d"Nof+sg k|0ffnL ljBdfg 5g\, t/ o:tf] cg'udg tyf d"Nof+sgsf k|ltj]bgsf lgisif{x?n] cfof]hgf k"/f ug{ yk nufgL ug]{ cfof]hgfx?sf] kl/l:yltdf cfpg] kl/jt{gx?nfO{ Wofgdf /fv]/ {  . lg0f{onfO{ k|efljt kfb}g lgsf;f k|0ffnLdf klg kl/jt{g ;Dej agfpg nufgL ;dLIff If]qx?nfO{ cfof]hgf ;DkGg ug{sf nflu yk /sd dfu ug]]{ cg'dlt lbOG5, ' 5{ . k|lqmofdf s]xL nrstf x'gk h'g cg'/f]w /fli6«o of]hgf cfof]u / cy{dGqfnodf k|:t't Pjd\ ToxfFaf6 :jLs[t x'gk' 5{ . ;'ljwf ;~rfng (Facility operation) ;DklQ btf{ (asset registry) ;DklQ btf{sf] Joj:yf ljBdfg 5, t/ To;nfO{ cBfjlws ug]{ tyf ;doqmd;Fu} x'g] d"No Ifo / v'b ;DklQ d"Nodf b[li6 /fVg] s'/f ce}m ;Lldt ;DklQ btf{ lstfax? /flvg'k5{ / ;DklQsf] d"No klg clelnlvt dfq 5 . ' 5{ . x'gk lgoldt / k'g/fj[lQ x'g] dd{t;Def/sf nflu kof{Kt /sd lbOG5, t/ ;'ljwfx?sf] ;~rfng . cfjlws dd{t;Def/ tyf k'gM:yfkgfsf nflu /sd kof{Kt 5}g, o;n] ubf{ cfof]hgfx?sf] sfo{kb| z{gLnfO{ k|lts"n k|efj kf/]sf] 5 . cfof]hgf d"Nof+sg (Project evaluation) eljiosf cfof]hgf l8hfOgsf nflu ;d]t k[i7kf]if0f x'g ;Sg] u/L, ;/sf/L ah]6 nufgLsf cfof]hgfx?nfO{ sfd ;DkGg ePkl5sf] cfof]hgf cfof]hgf÷sfo{qmdx? ;DkGg ePkl5 d"Nof+sg ug]{ cf}krfl/s }  . of] sfo{ k"0f{tM df}hb d"Nof+sgsf] bfo/fdf NofOFbg ' gePsf] cj:yf 5 . ;+:yfut Joj:yf . pRr cf/f]x0fM dWocfo d'n'stkm{sf] lbzfdf 51 ;Gbe{ ;fdu|L REFERENCES (References) Acemoglu, D., and J. Robinson. 2012. Why Nations Fail: The Origins of Power, Prosperity and Poverty. New York: Random House. ADB (Asian Development Bank), DFID (Department for International Development), and ILO (International Labor Organization). 2009. “Nepal: Critical Development Constraints Mandaluyong City, Philippines: Asian Development Bank Allcott, H., A. Collard-Wexler, and S. D. 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Climbing Higher: pRr cf/f]x0fM Toward dWocfo as d'n'stkm{ Middle-Income f] lbzfdf Nepal 54 54 pRr cf/f]x0fM dWocfo d'n'stkm{sf] lbzfdf 55 ljZj a}+s ;d"x g]kfn sfof{no kf]i6 aS; g+= &(* ofs P08 olt xf]6n kl/;/ b/jf/dfu{, sf7df8f}+, g]kfn 6]lnkmf]gM (&&–!–$@#^))) ofS;M (&&–!–$@@%!!@ Od]nM infonepal@worldbank.org www.worldbank.org/np www.facebook.com/WorldBankNepal