The World Bank Report No: ISR10381 Implementation Status & Results Russian Federation Hydrometerological System Modernization Project (P082239) Public Disclosure Copy Operation Name: Hydrometerological System Modernization Project (P082239) Project Stage: Implementation Seq.No: 16 Status: ARCHIVED Archive Date: 23-May-2013 Country: Russian Federation Approval FY: 2005 Product Line: IBRD/IDA Region: EUROPE AND CENTRAL ASIA Lending Instrument: Specific Investment Loan Implementing Agency(ies): Bureau for Economic Analyses, National Hydromet Service Key Dates Board Approval Date 17-Mar-2005 Original Closing Date 30-Sep-2010 Planned Mid Term Review Date 06-Oct-2008 Last Archived ISR Date 25-Dec-2012 Effectiveness Date 12-Dec-2005 Revised Closing Date 31-May-2013 Actual Mid Term Review Date 23-Dec-2008 Project Development Objectives Project Development Objective (from Project Appraisal Document) The main development objective of the project is to increase the accuracy of forecasts provided to the Russian people and economy by modernizing key elements of RosHydromet's technical base and strengthening its institutional arrangements. This would enable enterprise and household adjustments to protect lives and support economic growth. Has the Project Development Objective been changed since Board Approval of the Project? Yes No Component(s) Component Name Component Cost Modernization of Computing, Archiving and Telecommunications Facilities 26.63 Upgrading of the Observational Networks 44.13 Institutional Strengthening, Improvement in Output Dissemination and Emergency Preparedness 5.11 Preparation of the proposed Second National Hydromet Modernization Project 0.20 Public Disclosure Copy Overall Ratings Previous Rating Current Rating Progress towards achievement of PDO Satisfactory Satisfactory Overall Implementation Progress (IP) Satisfactory Satisfactory Overall Risk Rating Low Low Implementation Status Overview This is the last ISR for the project which closes on May 31, 2013. The project supported the most critical modernization needs of Russia Hydrometeorological Service infrastructure, ensuring interim fulfillments of Russia’s international obligations in weather and climate data sharing, testing and operationalizing modern technical and technological approaches and solutions. Project results will be analyzed and reflected in the Implementation Completion Report (ICR) which is under preparation. The implementation of the project remains Page 1 of 6 The World Bank Report No: ISR10381 satisfactory. The project is on track to fully achieve its development objective by the closing date. PDO’s outcome and intermediate indicators (e.g., increasing forecast lead time for national and regional weather forecasts; reaching higher resolution of operational forecasts; increasing percentage of stations reporting to global telecommunication network on time; reducing average response time to users of national archive etc.) have been met or exceeded. Investments under Component A supported modernization of computing, archiving and telecommunications facilities which significantly improved the timeliness and effectiveness of weather forecasts, data availability and data sharing nationally and globally. Specific Public Disclosure Copy investment activities resulted in (a) establishing capacity to produce operational forecasts with higher spatial resolution; (b) addressing principal infrastructure bottlenecks for information storage and transmission, resulting in increased daily volume of data sent and received in the Moscow Computing Center from a baseline of 50 Mbytes/240 Mbytes to 150 Mbytes/5000 Mbytes respectively; (c) timely reporting of about 96% of World Meteorological Organization (WMO)-data stations (against a baseline of 87%) to the Global Telecommunication system; (d) ensuring infinite data survival of and improved response time for delivery of information from Roshydromet data archives from 14 days to several hours (less than 24 hours) for an average request. As a result Russia’s Hydrometeorological Service (RHM) forecasting capacity is getting closer to that of the leading world forecasting centers such as the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and the US National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP). Investments under Component B supported upgrade of observation networks including: (a) modernization of the entire network for regional and local forecasting which includes surface meteorological stations (1628 sites); (b) upgrading the aerological network as a result of which 62% of the upper air stations are in compliance with WMO requirements against initial 5%, supporting global forecasting by providing the principal data inputs to global weather models; (c) upgradation of entire hydrological network in three high priority flood-prone river basins (Kuban, Ussury and Oka), with automatic and semi-automatic stations, mobile laboratories, etc. providing more reliable and timely hydrological data complementing meteorological forecasts to enable flood warnings and support water resources management (lead time and reliability of forecasts in the pilot river basins improved from 30 minutes to 4-6 hours for flash floods. Component C supports institutional strengthening, improvement in information dissemination and emergency preparedness through formulating, developing and testing new operational principles drawn from worldwide experience, improved emergency warnings and improved information to users and clients. The project served as the foundation for “The Strategy of Activities on Hydrometeorology and Related Areas until 2030 (with consideration of climate change impacts)� approved by the Government of the Russian Federation (GORF) in September 2010 which set directions for further modernization of Roshydromet. Roshydromet’s main clients -- the regional and municipal authorities, the Ministries of Emergency, Transport, Energy, Water Resources Management, and Environmental Protection marked noticeable improvement of Roshydromet information products and expressed strong support to further development of Roshydromet services. As the first project in Europe and Central Asia region supporting hydrometeorological modernization, the project remains a model for preparation of similar investment projects in Europe and Central Asia (e.g., Central Asia, Moldova). The project remains relevant to Russia's economic development priorities. It serves as a platform for continuing Roshydromet's modernization. The GORF requested a follow up investment support for the sector. The second Russia Hydromet Modernization Project is about to be negotiated in late May 2013. Locations Country First Administrative Division Location Planned Actual Russian Fed. Not Entered Obninsk Russian Fed. Not Entered Moscow Russian Fed. Not Entered Novosibirsk Russian Fed. Not Entered Khabarovsk Public Disclosure Copy Russian Fed. Not Entered Voeikov Main Geophysical Observatory Results Project Development Objective Indicators Page 2 of 6 The World Bank Report No: ISR10381 Indicator Name Core Unit of Measure Baseline Current End Target Lead time increases for national and regional Text Value Regional forecasts at Regional forecasts at 36 Regional forecasts at weather forecasts. Novosibirsk and Khabarovsk hours lead time in lower Novosibirsk and Khabarovsk Public Disclosure Copy achieve S1=0.7 and anomaly atmosphere (MSLP) at end of achieve S1=0.7 and anomaly correlation >= 0.9 at 24 hours project. correlation >= 0.9 at 36 hours lead time in lower atmosphere lead time in lower atmosphere (MSLP) (MSLP) Date 16-Feb-2005 09-Apr-2013 09-Apr-2013 Comments Beneficiaries survey shows End target is achieved. high level of user's satisfaction. Intermediate Results Indicators Indicator Name Core Unit of Measure Baseline Current End Target Computing centers obtain operational forecasts Text Value T170L31 or better resolution RHM uses a new version of T170L31 or better resolution at higher resolution and using ensemble is not used for operational the global weather forecasting is used for operational methods. forecasts technology based on the forecasts ensemble method (weather element computation). This resulted into improved quality of middle-term forecasting (for periods up to 10 days) Baseline accuracy (in 2005) by regional administrative centre: 1 day – 83-85%, 2 days – 78-81%, 3 days – 73-77%. Accuracy in 2011: 1 day – 92%, 2 days – 89-90%, 3 days – 86-87%. Experimental model 3 min/ day (parale comupting) is in use. Public Disclosure Copy Date 16-Feb-2005 09-Apr-2013 09-Apr-2013 Comments End target was achieved by End target is achieved. the original closing date September 30, 2010. Data collected and transmitted (including Text Value 87% of WMO reporting 92% of WMO-reporting 92% of WMO reporting processed information) within Russia or stations now report data to stations now report data to stations now report data to globally does not encounter infrastrucuture GTS on time GTS on time. GTS on time (this target value bottlenecks in RosHydromet telecoms. was revised based on re- evaluation at MTR) Date 16-Feb-2005 09-Apr-2013 09-Apr-2013 Page 3 of 6 The World Bank Report No: ISR10381 Comments Target was revised and End target achieved. End target is achieved by the values increased during the original closing date and prior MTR. to restructuring. Public Disclosure Copy Response time drops for requests for archived Text Value Typical response time is now Response time is up to Average response time for data. 14 days for an average several hours (less than 24 requesters to the Obninsk request to the Obninsk data hours) for an average request WDC is 7 days archive to the Obninsk data archive – within one working day, if data of the latest year is used (upon replenishment of the data of the latest year , response time is equal to the indicator for the whole archive). Services are provided via files exchange. The most important thing is that long-term (infinite) survival of data is ensured. Date 16-Feb-2005 09-Apr-2013 09-Apr-2013 Comments End target achieved. End target is achieved Percentage of upper air stations in compliance Text Value 5% (total of stations) - this 62% of the total number of 62% (total of stations) - this with WMO requirements value was re-evaluated at upper air stations are in value was re-evaluated at MTR compliance with WMO MTR due to change of requirements. baseline Date 16-Feb-2005 09-Apr-2013 09-Apr-2013 Comments The baseline target was End target is achieved. End target is achieved. reevaluated during MTR and augmented. Area covered by strong wind alarms and Text Value strong wind alarms is 0 km2; The GORF continues to 100,000 km2 strong wind precipitation 300,000 km2 for precipitation implement own plan for storm alarms 500,000 km2 for increased coverage of the precipitation area covered by wind alarms Public Disclosure Copy and monitoring of precipiation increases as being agreed in 2007 duing MTR. A Federal Target Program titled "Modernization of uniform system of air traffic organization in the Russian Federation" is under implementation which aims at strengthening of radar network (up to 75 Doppler Page 4 of 6 The World Bank Report No: ISR10381 radars are being installed in main airports). Date 16-Feb-2005 09-Apr-2013 09-Apr-2013 Public Disclosure Copy Comments This target is delinked from Doppler radar program is The GORF is currently project investments after the being implemented using implementing an investment changes agreed during MTR. funds from RF. program for Doppler radars The MTR agreed to cancel with own funds. procurement of meteorological radars and to re-allocate “released� funds to other high priority activities. Data on Financial Performance (as of 05-Apr-2013) Financial Agreement(s) Key Dates Project Ln/Cr/Tf Status Approval Date Signing Date Effectiveness Date Original Closing Date Revised Closing Date P082239 IBRD-47690 Effective 17-Mar-2005 11-Aug-2005 12-Dec-2005 30-Sep-2010 31-May-2013 Disbursements (in Millions) Project Ln/Cr/Tf Status Currency Original Revised Cancelled Disbursed Undisbursed % Disbursed P082239 IBRD-47690 Effective USD 80.00 79.90 0.10 79.73 0.17 100.00 Disbursement Graph Public Disclosure Copy Page 5 of 6 The World Bank Report No: ISR10381 Key Decisions Regarding Implementation The ICR is under preparation and will be submitted to management for approval in October 2013. Public Disclosure Copy Restructuring History Level two Approved on 14-Jul-2011, Level two Approved on 18-Jul-2012 Related Projects There are no related projects. Public Disclosure Copy Page 6 of 6