Small Hydro Resource Mapping in Madagascar EXECUTIVE SUMMARY [ENGLISH VERSION] March 2017 This report was prepared by SHER Ingénieurs-Conseils s.a. in association with Mhylab, under contract to The World Bank. Energy Resource Mapping and Geospatial Planning [Project ID: P145350]. This activity is funded and supported by the Energy Sector Management Assistance Program (ESMAP), a multi-donor trust fund administered by The World Bank, under a global initiative on Renewable Energy Resource Mapping. Further details on the initiative can be obtained from the ESMAP website. This document is a final output from the above-mentioned project and has been subject to full peer review. This document accompanies all the other outputs of the project and the Madagascar Small Hydro Atlas, which will be published on the ESMAP website - please refer to the corresponding country page. Copyright © 2017 THE WORLD BANK Washington DC 20433 Telephone: +1-202-473-1000 Internet: www.worldbank.org The World Bank, comprising the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development (IBRD) and the International Development Association (IDA), is the commissioning agent and copyright holder for this publication. However, this work is a product of the consultants listed, and not of World Bank staff. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this work do not necessarily reflect the views of The World Bank, its Board of Executive Directors, or the governments they represent. The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this work and accept no responsibility for any consequence of their use. The boundaries, colors, denominations, and other information shown on any map in this work do not imply any judgment on the part of The World Bank concerning the legal status of any territory or the endorsement or acceptance of such boundaries. The material in this work is subject to copyright. Because The World Bank encourages dissemination of its knowledge, this work may be reproduced, in whole or in part, for non-commercial purposes as long as full attribution to this work is given. Any queries on rights and licenses, including subsidiary rights, should be addressed to World Bank Publications, The World Bank Group, 1818 H Street NW, Washington, DC 20433, USA; fax: +1-202-522-2625; e-mail: pubrights@worldbank.org. Furthermore, the ESMAP Program Manager would appreciate receiving a copy of the publication that uses this publication for its source sent in care of the address above, or to esmap@worldbank.org. Phase 3 - Production of a Validated Resource Atlas EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Renewable Energy Resource Mapping: Small Hydro – Madagascar [P145350] April 2017 English version IN ASSOCIATION WITH FINAL OUTPUT Acknowledgement This report was prepared by a consultant consortium including SHER Ingénieurs-Conseils, Mhylab and Artelia Madagascar. The team was led by Gérard Chassard and Pierre Smits with the support of Quentin Goor, Gérard Malengé, Serge Lala Rakotoson, Thomas Dubois, Faly Rabemanantsoa, Vincent Denis, Alice Vandenbussche, Jean René Ratsimbazafy, Sandy Ralambomanana, Flore Rabenjarison Bernard Rakotoaribeby et Damien Dubois. The work and the report were supported by the World Bank team, led by Vonjy Rakotondramanana and Rikard Liden, and the Client team at Ministère de l'Energie et des Hydrocarbures and associated agencies. The results presented in this report are based on extensive input data and information from a large number of stakeholders, who are highly acknowledged for their contributions. Major contributors have been the Ministère de l'Energie et des Hydrocarbures, ORE, JIRAMA, ADER and Direction Générale de la Météorologie. This project has been made possible through funding from the Energy Sector Management Assistance Program (ESMAP), a global knowledge and technical assistance program administered by the World Bank (Mr Oliver Knight) and supported by 11 bilateral donors, and is part of a global ESMAP initiative in support of renewable energy mapping. Small Hydro Madagascar ESMAP / The World Bank Contract n°7171214 Correspondence Table between the terms of reference and reporting and the ESMAP phases: Correspondence ESMAP General Phasing with ESMAP-Small Hydro Madagascar ToR Activity 1 - Data collection and production of Hydro Atlas, review and validation of small hydro potential Phase 1 Preliminary resource mapping output Activity 2 - Small hydro electrification planning based on satellite and site visits Activity 3 - Small hydro prioritization and workshop Activity 4 - Data collection and final validation (from the REVISED TERMS OF REFERENCES FOR THE ACTIVITY 4) : Phase 2 Ground-based data collection A - Review of previously studied small hydropower sites B - Data collection and final validation C - Pre-feasibility study of two priority sites for small hydropower development D - Support to the Ministry of Energy to build capacity and take ownership of the Phase 3 Production of a validated resource atlas created GIS database for hydropower that combines satellite and ground-based data E - Updated Small Hydro Mapping Report for Madagascar SHER Ingénieurs-conseils s.a. Rue J. Matagne, 15 5020 Namur – Belgium Phone : +32 81 32 79 80 Fax : +32 81 32 79 89 www.sher.be Project Manager: Rebecca DOTET Référence SHER : MAD04 Phone : +32 (0) 81 327 982 Fax : +32 (0) 81 327 989 E-mail : dotet@sher.be Rev.n° Date Content Drafted Verified 0 01/2015 Executive Summary - Pierre SMITS Julien LEFEVERE FINAL English version 1 04/2017 Executive Summary - Quentin GOOR Pierre SMITS FINAL update Phase 3 In case of discrepancy, the French version prevails SHER INGÉNIEURS-CONSEILS S.A. IS ISO 9001 CERTIFIED SHER / Mhylab / ARTELIA-Madagascar Executive Summary - April 2017 Page 6 Small Hydro Madagascar ESMAP / The World Bank Contract n°7171214 Abbreviations and acronyms ADER Agence de Développement de l’Electrification Rurale APD Avant-Projet Détaillé APS Avant-Projet Sommaire ESMAP Energy Sector Management Assistance Program FTM FOIBEN-TAOSARINTANIN'I MADAGASIKARA GWh Giga Watt heure, Milliards de kWh ou Millions de MW JIRAMA Jiro sy Rano Malagasy (Société d'électricité et d'eau de Madagascar) kW kilo Watt kWh kilo Watt heure LCOE Levelized Cost Of Electricity MW Mega Watt MWh Mega Watt heure ORE Office de Régulation de l’Electricité PIC Projet Pôles Intégrés de Croissance GIS Geographical Information System SHER / Mhylab / ARTELIA-Madagascar Executive Summary - April 2017 Page 7 Small Hydro Madagascar ESMAP / The World Bank Contract n°7171214 Table of Content 1 Introduction ..................................................................................................... 10 1.1 General context of the ESMAP – FWC project ......................................................................... 10 1.2 Objectives, results and activities of the study ......................................................................... 10 2 Small hydropower development: an opportunity for Madagascar .................... 13 2.1 Power sector and current generation mix ............................................................................... 13 2.2 Strengths and weaknesses of small hydropower ..................................................................... 14 2.3 Recommended role for small hydro ....................................................................................... 18 3 Small hydropower potential in Madagascar ..................................................... 20 3.1 Sites identified from the bibliography .................................................................................... 20 3.2 New identified sites - SiteFinder contribution: detection tool for hydropower sites ................. 21 3.3 Integration of the previously identified and studied sites and the new potential sites in a single database .......................................................................................................................................... 22 3.4 Creation of the Final Database ............................................................................................... 22 3.5 Consolidated Small Hydropower Potential (1-20 MW) ............................................................ 22 4 Prioritization of promising small hydropower sites .......................................... 25 4.1 Identification and selection process of promising sites............................................................ 25 4.2 Selection results and portfolio of 1-20 MW hydropower projects ............................................ 26 4.3 Most promising sites for short-term investments ................................................................... 27 5 Prioritized sites for development in the short term .......................................... 30 6 GIS as a tool for transparent development of hydropower potential ................ 41 SHER / Mhylab / ARTELIA-Madagascar Executive Summary - April 2017 Page 8 Small Hydro Madagascar ESMAP / The World Bank Contract n°7171214 RENEWABLE ENERGY A way for Madagascar to green their energy portfolio and lower the cost of power Introduction SHER / Mhylab / ARTELIA-Madagascar Executive Summary - April 2017 Page 9 Small Hydro Madagascar ESMAP / The World Bank Contract n°7171214 1 Introduction 1.1 GENERAL CONTEXT OF THE ESMAP – FWC PROJECT ESMAP (Energy Sector Management Assistance Program) is a technical assistance program managed by the World Bank and supported by 11 bilateral donors. ESMAP launched in January 2013 as an initiative to support the efforts of countries to improve knowledge of their renewable energy resources (REN), to establish appropriate institutional frameworks for the development of REN, and to provide "free access" to geospatial resources and data. This initiative will also support the IRENA-GlobalAtlas1 program by improving data availability and quality, through an interactive atlas. This study, "Renewable Energy Resource Mapping: Small Hydro Madagascar", is part of a technical assistance project funded by ESMAP and implemented by the World Bank in Madagascar (the "Client"), which aims to support mapping resources and geospatial planning for small hydropower. It is conducted in close coordination with the Ministry of Energy, the Electricity Regulation Office (ERO), Development Agency of Rural Electrification (DARE) and JIRAMA. 1.2 OBJECTIVES, RESULTS AND ACTIVITIES OF THE STUDY The objectives of the study are:  The improvement of the quality and availability of information about the hydropower resources in Madagascar;  A detailed review and update of small hydro potential (1-20 MW), and  Recommendations about the implementation of the small hydropower in the framework of the energy sector planning. Expected results from the study are:  Assembled data in a geographical database (GIS);  A thematic atlas on hydropower in Madagascar with a particular emphasis on small hydro, and  Recommendations to develop the small hydropower sector in Madagascar. The 3 phases of the ESMAP study are :  PHASE 1 : Preliminary mapping of the resources based on spatial analysis and site visits  PHASE 2 : Field data collection campaign 1 http://globalatlas.irena.org/ SHER / Mhylab / ARTELIA-Madagascar Executive Summary - April 2017 Page 10 Small Hydro Madagascar ESMAP / The World Bank Contract n°7171214  PHASE 3 : Production of a validated Atlas of the resources combining spatial data and field measurements The activities of the study are:  Activity 1: Data collection and production of HydroAtlas / Review and validation of small hydropower potential  Activity 2: Integration of small hydro development in the electrification planning (rural and interconnected) in Madagascar  Activity 3: Priorisation of small hydro, site visits and validation of the workshop  Activity 4: Field data collection and final validation: (update HydroAtlas / campaign of hydrological measurements / additional studies in geology and environment) SHER / Mhylab / ARTELIA-Madagascar Executive Summary - April 2017 Page 11 Small Hydro Madagascar ESMAP / The World Bank Contract n°7171214 Smaller sites (1-20 MW) have the advantage of being faster to develop (about 2.5 to 4 years), able to progressively meet electricity demand, having a reduced impact on the environment and easier to mobilize financing for than larger sites Small hydropower development: SHER / Mhylab / ARTELIA-Madagascar an opportunity for Madagascar Executive Summary - April 2017 Page 12 Small Hydro Madagascar ESMAP / The World Bank Contract n°7171214 2 Small hydropower development: an opportunity for Madagascar 2.1 POWER SECTOR AND CURRENT GENERATION MIX Madagascar has enormous energy resources, particularly renewable ones (hydraulic, solar, wind, biomass), but national energy consumption is still very low, and is dominated by wood energy and its by-products. Madagascar imports all of its petrol products, and energy costs are too high to effectively contribute to social and economic development of the country. Today, very few people in Madagascar have access to modern energy sources, and this is a significant impediment to development. Furthermore, people who don’t have access must rely on lesser quality, ineffective and often polluting energy sources, for which they spend much more than the few with such access. Households not connected to the electrical network spend on average between 2 and 10 times more for less lighting than those who are connected. Madagascar’s national electricity infrastructure is outdated, and the existing production and distribution facilities are insufficient to satisfy present growing demands. Some production facilities are saturated and are highly exposed to bad weather, in spite of a general abundance of un-exploited renewable energy resources in the country. This situation presents a handicap to the country’s development and a blockage to the competitiveness of export industries. In farming, electrical energy demand (e.g. for pump stations for irrigation) is still negligible. The Malagasy Government has identified the energy sector as a core part of its global economic reform program, aimed at increasing economic growth by drawing on the momentum and initiative of private investments. The lack of fundamental infrastructure within the country is a major roadblock in these efforts. To overcome this, particularly with regards to energy, the government needs to accelerate energy access programs, emphasising private sector renewable energy developments with beneficial community participation, . Such action would translate into energy cost reductions and increases in productivity. Beyond economic goals, the pursuing of a balanced energy policy in Madagascar would also have extremely important implications for environmental protection and community health, through pursuing of sustainable and sensitively designed renewable energy plants. Amongst others these efforts consist of:  promoting modern use of energy with efficient equipment,  encouraging the use of renewable energy to progressively replace traditional sources of energy. For the majority of Malagasy households, wood is the main energy source for daily needs such as lighting and cooking. This is a cause of deforestation, which causes broad knock-on effects to the environment. The acceleration of wood energy’s replacement by thermal production SHER / Mhylab / ARTELIA-Madagascar Executive Summary - April 2017 Page 13 Small Hydro Madagascar ESMAP / The World Bank Contract n°7171214 and other sources, such as butane gas, biomass (biofuel), solar power, wind power and hydropower, must go hand in hand with broadening access to electricity. With the liberalization of the electricity sector in 1999, the government has introduced a large number of structural reforms, including the creation of the OER, ADER and FNE, as well as numerous development programs such as the Growth Integrated Poles project (PIC) , which encourages private investments and public-private partnerships in infrastructure. With regards to electricity production, Madagascar has a total installed generation capacity of 552MW, 162MW and 389MW of which are produced by hydropower and thermal (HFO & diesel) respectively. The rest is produced by other sources of renewable energy such as wind, solar and biomass. Out of this installed capacity of 552MW, only 303MW are actually operational and available (June 2014), equal to 54.9%. In June 2014, the installed capacity from hydropower was distributed between 11 major hydropower plants, with plant capacities ranging from 0.45MW in Manandray, Fianarantsoa province, to 91MW in Andekaleka, Toamasina province. 2.2 STRENGTHS AND WEAKNESSES OF SMALL HYDROPOWER 3 types of project connections are present in Madagascar:  Interconnected grid (JIRAMA)  Isolated grid or stand-alone system (JIRAMA/Private)  Small remote network powered by a dedicated source of production The following tables presents the strengths and weaknesses of the three types of connections with respect to the development of small hydro (1-20 MW) in Madagascar. SHER / Mhylab / ARTELIA-Madagascar Executive Summary - April 2017 Page 14 Small Hydro Madagascar ESMAP / The World Bank Contract n°7171214 INTERCONNECTED GRIDS (RI) (JIRAMA) Strengths of small hydropower (1-20MW) Weaknesses of small hydropower (1-20MW) Opportunity for clustered developments: Small hydro projects can be developed close to existing HV grid projects (RI): easy evacuation of energy, to strengthen the grid. Positive impact on GHG emissions: Participation in reducing greenhouse gas emissions to achieve the long- term objectives. Potentially eligible for CDM credits: Improved profitability of projects if they have access to CDM credits from the World Bank. Large hydro is generally preferred in national master Low investment costs and reduced barriers to funding: plans: large hydro projects are regularly favored in Small hydro projects that have competitive production national master plans over smaller projects. In costs with larger projects require a much lower Madagascar however, even projects of 1-20 MW can investment cost. Therefore, the conditions of access to make a significant contribution to the country’s energy financing for these smaller facilities are easier. mix. Shorter development cycle: Duration of development (including resource studies for funding) is shorter than Potential saturation of the grid: smaller projects are less for large hydro. Hence projects smaller than 20MW can able to afford HV network enhancements once the grid is enhance RI production in the shorter-term. saturated. Competitive cost of production compared to thermal: Opportunity to substitute thermal energy production at a Base power: small hydro projects usually have only lesser cost. limited storage capacity (tank) to allow for peak Energy independence: substitution of some thermal production. energy by small hydro reduces the need to import petroleum products, which are expensive and vulnerable to international market price fluctuations. Reduced environmental and social impacts compared to large hydro projects. Flexibility in maintenance: The impact of maintenance will overall have a lesser impact to national electricity output compared with for large hydropower projects. In addition, proper planning of this maintenance allows for greater flexibility. Recommendations Promote short-term development projects with a capacity up to 20MW: particularly projects closest to the grid and with existing access which have low production costs and controllable hydrological and socio-environmental risks related to their development Creation of a Master Plan that covers all three of the interconnected grids (RIA, RIF, RIT). Such a plan would enable a comparison to be made between various planning scenarios, taking into account the economic benefits of the gradual introduction of more small hydro projects versus a single large project, and the best distribution of economic opportunities between the 3 interconnection grids. SHER / Mhylab / ARTELIA-Madagascar Executive Summary - April 2017 Page 15 Small Hydro Madagascar ESMAP / The World Bank Contract n°7171214 ISOLATED GRIDS (JIRAMA/Private) Strengths of small hydropower (1-20MW) Weaknesses of small hydropower (1-20MW) Adequacy of the supply and demand: The size of small hydropower projects is generally better suited to local Complex Planning: Complexity of planning networks of demand. developments in the medium-term, given a significant number of potential sites and development opportunities, but no prior indications of which types or configurations of generation are to be used Energy supply to remote centres that would not benefit the development of the energy produced by large hydropower projects, since transmission and distribution lines would not be developed as far as these remote Network management complexity in the case of very networks and centres. high penetration of intermittent renewable energy: small hydropower by itself, without a regulating reservoir, cannot adequately manage intermittent production of other RE sources such as solar and wind Ability to obtain financial support (Concessionary power. finance, subsidies at low interest rates) given the capital- intensive nature of hydroelectric projects. Recommendations Put in place productive investment planning necessary for the development of small remote generation centres which take into account the optimal technology for that location (hydro, wind, solar biomass, thermal). Look for small hydropower projects close remote centres and at competitive cost compared to thermal units. Provide, where possible, phasing of the technical development of small hydropower projects according to demand (eg in the number of penstocks and turbines). Invest in the development and rehabilitation of roads and rural tracks that would reduce the investment costs for the development of small hydro projects and thereby strengthen their competitiveness against large hydro. SHER / Mhylab / ARTELIA-Madagascar Executive Summary - April 2017 Page 16 Small Hydro Madagascar ESMAP / The World Bank Contract n°7171214 SMALL REMOTE NETWORK (powered by a single production source) Strengths of small hydropower (1-20MW) Weaknesses of small hydropower (1-20MW) Ability to reduce development costs: Possible simplifying of the design to minimize production costs. Unsuitable in areas with significant periods of low Adequacy of supply and demand: Size of small flows: Difficulty in justifying mini hydropower projects hydropower projects generally better suited to local where low flows are severe, which is the case especially demand in areas of lower and / or poorly distributed rainfall (South and West of Madagascar). Power supply to remote centres that would not benefit from the energy produced by large hydro projects, as transmission and distribution lines would not be developed as far as these remote networks and centers Complex planning: Complexity of undertaking the relevant studies across the entire country. Availability of financial aid (grants, subsidies at low interest rates) given the capital-intensive nature of hydropower projects. Recommendations Promote the development of projects in areas that receive well distributed rainfall over the year. Plan for ultimate grid integration of projects : When possible, in the development of projects plan to allow future connection to the network, so that these projects are not abandoned after connection to the main grid occurs. Invest in the development and rehabilitation of roads and rural tracks that would reduce the investment costs for the development of small hydro projects and thereby strengthen their competitiveness against large hydro.. SHER / Mhylab / ARTELIA-Madagascar Executive Summary - April 2017 Page 17 Small Hydro Madagascar ESMAP / The World Bank Contract n°7171214 2.3 RECOMMENDED ROLE FOR SMALL HYDRO The potential for small hydropower in Madagascar is large and mostly untapped. Opportunities exist in all types of capacities. The development of this potential is nevertheless hindered by the size of the country, the poor state of the road network and the scattered distribution of urban areas. Soil degradation – erosion, gold panning, craft mining, and lavaka – in certain regions (especially the South, mid-West and West) is widespread and could call into question the viability and even feasibility of some hydropower projects. A watershed’s deterioration as well as its sediment management should be taken into account in all future hydropower projects, be they large or small. All new developments should generally be part of an integrated watershed management effort in order to preserve the hydraulic heritage of Madagascar. Smaller sites have the advantage of being faster to develop (about 2.5 to 4 years), better able to progressively meet growing electricity demand, and easier to mobilise financing for than larger sites. The latter require longer development times (6 to 10 years), larger financing (> 450 MUSD) and face potential severe socio-environmental restrictions. Given the possibility of replacing thermal energy, and the future demand increases on the RIA, small hydropower sites will be attractive even if a larger site is built. Future energy master plans in Madagascar need to better detail planning for all types of energy (renewable and thermal) to encourage the development of projects and stimulate investment, both public and private. Planning would need to address the interconnection possibilities of the three existing networks (RIA, RIF, RIT) and to phase their development to ensure that small hydropower sites maintain their utility in the context of larger interconnection developments. Future development plans should furthermore compile a complete portfolio of renewable energy sites, drawing on information relating to known hydropower sites all over the country and other renewable resources, and taking into account growing electricity demand. In every case, the extension of the existing interconnected grids should be clearly highlighted and shown on the map so as to not compromise the development of remote sites which are generally smaller and less competitive. The potential to develop one more river cascade systems with an upstream reservoir to enable daily and yearly modulation should be analysed in detail. This type of development generally enables the realisation of economies of scale (access, lines, etc.) and optimisation of hydraulic infrastructures. SHER / Mhylab / ARTELIA-Madagascar Executive Summary - April 2017 Page 18 Small Hydro Madagascar ESMAP / The World Bank Contract n°7171214 Without economic or technical constraints Madagascar’s small hydro resource is in excess of 350 sites between 1-20 MW, with a total capacity of 1350 MW Madagascar has significant potential for small hydropower, with opportunities for both private and governmental investments Small hydropower potential SHER / Mhylab / ARTELIA-Madagascar in Madagascar Executive Summary - April 2017 Page 19 Small Hydro Madagascar ESMAP / The World Bank Contract n°7171214 3 Small hydropower potential in Madagascar The database of potential hydropower sites in Madagascar used in this study is made up of two main information sources described below: (i) literature from a diverse range of studies and lists and (ii) spatial analysis software that identifies river sections with high hydropower potential based up rainfall and topography. This software is a tool developed by SHER Ingénieurs-Conseils called SiteFinder. 3.1 SITES IDENTIFIED FROM THE BIBLIOGRAPHY A synthesis of the existing literature was carried out through the analysis of a large number of technical studies, strategic documents, master plans and lists of sites. A résumé of analyses is found in the HydroAtlas Report as well as the five potential site lists that were given to the Consultant. The table below summarises the distribution of potential sites from each source of information. Source Number of sites Energy sector collective list2 501 Ministry of Energy 80 ADER 780 ORE (sites shared with other lists) 67 Complied studies/ literature 109 TOTAL 1537 (1470 if the ORE sites without coordinates are removed) These lists, which have sites in common, have geographical coordinates and some technical information such as installed capacity, gross head, or a flow. It is important to remember that the lists are mostly syntheses of several documents, the source documents in question being not available. Very often, there are significant errors in location or technical parameters, and it is impossible to find the origin of data in order to make verifications or corrections. Also, even when provided, there are large uncertainties regarding the technical parameters since there is no information on the underlying hypotheses that helped determine them. 2 List provided by the World Bank from their archive SHER / Mhylab / ARTELIA-Madagascar Executive Summary - April 2017 Page 20 Small Hydro Madagascar ESMAP / The World Bank Contract n°7171214 3.2 NEW IDENTIFIED SITES - SITEFINDER CONTRIBUTION: DETECTION TOOL FOR HYDROPOWER SITES The aim of SiteFinder (developed by SHER Ingénieurs-Conseils) is to detect natural waterfalls or steep river stretches, associated with a flow, to identify the favourable locations for hydropower development. The program is mainly based on a Digital Elevation Model (DEM) and on a certain number of climatic/ hydrological data. The basic principle of the program is to detect waterfalls associated with a watershed. The software must be adapted to the specific requirements of the study. First, the rivers’ mean flow is estimated from the size of the waterbasin and/or average annual rainfall distribution data. The software then computes the specific capacity for each river stretch. These results, shown on the screen, enable the identification of potential sites. A result example (potential site SF038), seen on the topographical map, is shown below. A total of 575 sites have been detected by this method. Origin Number of new sites SiteFinder 575 (amongst which 412 have no equivalence with potential sites from the lists) Amongst these 575 sites detected, 163 sites had already been found in existing documents, 109 of which were classified in ADER’s list of potential sites. SiteFinder has therefore added a total of 412 new sites to the database of potential hydropower sites. SHER / Mhylab / ARTELIA-Madagascar Executive Summary - April 2017 Page 21 Small Hydro Madagascar ESMAP / The World Bank Contract n°7171214 3.3 INTEGRATION OF THE PREVIOUSLY IDENTIFIED AND STUDIED SITES AND THE NEW POTENTIAL SITES IN A SINGLE DATABASE The gross database coming from the integration of information coming from different sources has 2045 potential hydropower sites (1470 coming from the literature and 575 identified by SiteFinder). The database was manually cleared of 744 duplicates and sites without any data on the gross head, on the discharge and on the capacity. This left 1301 potential identified sites of all capacity – the GROSS DATABASE OF HYDROPOWER POTENTIAL SITES. Note that many sites may still contain duplicates stemming from errors of geographical coordinates and place names. The data collected doesn’t give any indication of the source of information or the author of the study. 3.4 CREATION OF THE FINAL DATABASE All 1301 sites identified from the sources described above, were analyzed using satellite imagery, topographical and geological maps and a regional hydrological study in order to assess whether each site is favorable or not for hydropower development. This analysis allowed the evaluation/confirmation of the available gross head, the size of the watershed drained by the site, obvious development constraints due to the presence of villages, protected areas, military sites, etc. The geological maps gave a first indication on the nature of the rocks, the possible tectonic events and the presence of geological faults which could make the implementation of a hydropower project more complex. The result is a consolidated database containing 403 potential hydropower sites, distributed over the country. Based on these elements, the potential power of each of the sites has been estimated, considering a design flow corresponding to the median interannual flow, estimated based on the regional hydrological study. 3.5 CONSOLIDATED SMALL HYDROPOWER POTENTIAL (1-20 MW) The hydropower potential of Madagascar is important and still largely underexploited. Opportunities exist in all capacity ranges. The analysis shows that Madagascar has a great small hydro potential for private or government investments. SHER / Mhylab / ARTELIA-Madagascar Executive Summary - April 2017 Page 22 Small Hydro Madagascar ESMAP / The World Bank Contract n°7171214 Without technical or economic considerations, the small hydro in Madagascar consists of more than 350 potential sites from 1 to 20 MW with a cumulated capacity of approximately 1350 MW. More than half of this potential is concentrated in the provinces of Toamasina (31%) and Fianarantsoa (26%), whose favourable topographic and meteorological characteristics were highlighted in Chapter 2. These two provinces have a total potential of 582 MW. The provinces of Mahajanga, Antananarivo, Antsiranana and Toliary contribute respectively 18%, 15%, 7% and 3% to the small hydro potential. SHER / Mhylab / ARTELIA-Madagascar Executive Summary - April 2017 Page 23 Small Hydro Madagascar ESMAP / The World Bank Contract n°7171214 Small hydropower (1-20 MW) is an opportunity for the development of significant power generation in the short-term. Prioritization of small hydropower sites SHER / Mhylab / ARTELIA-Madagascar Executive Summary - April 2017 Page 24 Small Hydro Madagascar ESMAP / The World Bank Contract n°7171214 4 Prioritization of promising small hydropower sites 4.1 IDENTIFICATION AND SELECTION PROCESS OF PROMISING SITES Substantive work was carried out to establish a portfolio of hydropower projects that meet the criteria of the study. This work was conducted in close consultation with the Ministry of Energy and related agencies and in accordance with the terms of reference of the study. The criteria below were discussed and validated several times during the mission statement of the inception report and at technical meetings. The Government of Madagascar strongly emphasized the needs for the study to respect the least cost constraint from the very start of the selection process. This economic factor was included from early stages of the process even in the face of constraints related to incomplete and heterogeneous data. The diagram below shows schematically the study process. As the study progresses, through a number of pre-determined criteria, the number of sites is reduced and, in parallel, information and knowledge on each remaining potential site increases. SHER / Mhylab / ARTELIA-Madagascar Executive Summary - April 2017 Page 25 Small Hydro Madagascar ESMAP / The World Bank Contract n°7171214 Note also that the planning process is a dynamic and iterative process that tapers based on the increasing knowledge relating to potential sites.  Gross and Cleared Database: No planning is possible uncertainties about the technical data and the coordinates of the sites is at a maximum. For example, the Vohipary AD158 site has a capacity of 3.7 MW in the Collective list from energy sector, a capacity of 1.38 MW in the listing of the ORE, a capacity of 18.7 MW in the listing of Ministry of Energy; after site visit, a capacity of 38.9 MW has been calculated.  Portfolio of potential sites that meet the study criteria: a preliminary planning is possible that takes into account the sites’ connection distance to either one of three interconnected networks (Antananarivo-Antsirabe - RIA, Toamasina - RIT and Fianarantsoa - RIF) or to an remote centre already equipped with a thermal generator.  Visited promising sites: indicative planning is possible because some of the technical unknowns about potential sites are lifted. Power, production and cost calculations enable realistic assessments of the possibility of connection. This planning could eventually help integrate these projects into a future national electricity master plan. 4.2 SELECTION RESULTS AND PORTFOLIO OF 1-20 MW HYDROPOWER PROJECTS The following table lists the criteria that were applied in the selection of promising sites. Number of selected potential Study criteria sites Gross database of potential hydropower sites in Madagascar 1301 sites - 168 sites with missing capacity or flow or zero gross head 1133 sites - 5 aleardy existing sites 1128 sites - 36 sites of capacity > 25 MW 1092 sites - 673 sites of capacity < 800 kW (or < 700 kW for the sites identified by 446 sites SiteFinder) - 80 sites in protected areas 366 sites - 305 sites with a construction cost per installed kW estimated at > 5000 61 sites EUR/kW - 12 sites removed after a quality assurance review by an experienced hydropower engineer, based on a desktop assessment including 49 sites detailed map studies. At the end of the selection process, a portfolio of 49 sites has been identified as the MOST PROMISING SITES. The next step was to select from this portfolio of 49 sites the best potential sites to be visited during activity 3. At this stage of the study, given the lack of site visits and measurements to confirm the technical parameters of the sites, it is not possible to draw firm technical conclusions on the 49 SHER / Mhylab / ARTELIA-Madagascar Executive Summary - April 2017 Page 26 Small Hydro Madagascar ESMAP / The World Bank Contract n°7171214 sites; existing data is too incomplete and imprecise. However, there is sufficient evidence to affirm the sites’ potential for hydropower in the context of the study, and to warrant a field visit. The consultant considered for each site the possibilities of connection either to the grid or to the nearest isolated centre powered by a thermal generator as well as the site’s accessibility. Particular attention was paid to sites that can be developed in the short-term by private investors. These are likely to be the key stakeholders for future productive investments in the hydropower sector. 9 of the 49 sites have very difficult access and / or a mismatch in grid connection with their capacity. These sites are located either at more than a day’s walking distance from a track, or their connection point is estimated to be greater than 40 km away. These sites are likely not to be visited until the development of a reasonable access, and as such are excluded from future prioritisations, with closer projects or an extension of an existing grid being preferred. 7 sites among the 49 are located in ‘red areas’ from a security point of view. For safety reasons, these sites were not visited during the study period. However, they maintain their intrinsic interest and may be subject to investigation in future studies when the level of security is again favourable. The final list of sites to visit comprises 33 promising sites. 4.3 MOST PROMISING SITES FOR SHORT-TERM INVESTMENTS TARGETED HYDROLOGICAL STUDY FOR THE 33 MOST PROMISING SITES The objective of the targeted hydrological study is to estimate the statistical characteristics of the time series of flow at the 33 hydropower sites previously identified as the most promising of this study. These statistical characteristics have a major role in the estimation of the technical and economic parameters of potential hydropower schemes, as well as for their development planning and determining connection type. For the majority of the sites in this study, there is little or no existing specific information on their hydrological regime. Therefore, we have developed a methodology to obtain an indicative estimate of the statistical characteristics of flows at the sites of interest, based on data available at other flow gauging stations located within the territory of Madagascar. Consequently, based on the temporal and spatial resolutions of the available information on river flows in Madagascar, and the methodology of analysis described below, we are able to determine an indicative estimate of the hydrological characteristics at the sites of interest. This estimate may under no circumstances be used for infrastructure design without additional hydrological studies being carried out. SHER / Mhylab / ARTELIA-Madagascar Executive Summary - April 2017 Page 27 Small Hydro Madagascar ESMAP / The World Bank Contract n°7171214 ECONOMIC EVALUATION OF THE MOST PROMISING SITES FOR SHORT TERM INVESTMENTS Expected production and project costs have been computed based on characteristics of the planned facilities, the local context and the site’s hydrology. From the production and the cost outputs, the LCOE (Levelised cost of energy) has been calculated for each site, therefore enabling a consistent means of comparing the sites. VISITS TO THE PROMISING SITES Following the selection process, site field visits were undertaken to meet the diverse data required to assess the hydropower potential of the different sites and to determine their preliminary cost. Visits took place between late September 2014 and late November 2014, a period of 2 months. Reconnaissance work was conducted by several teams of experts. Teams of the Ministry of Energy and related agencies accompanied the Consultant's experts to the field in the week of 27 September 2014. The data for each site can be classified into primary data (measured on site) and secondary data (derived from the primary data). SHER / Mhylab / ARTELIA-Madagascar Executive Summary - April 2017 Page 28 Small Hydro Madagascar ESMAP / The World Bank Contract n°7171214 At least 11 sites, in total 130 MW, have been identified as prioritized potential sites of interest for development in the short- term. These would supplement Madagascar’s current power supply with 950 GWh/year. Prioritized sites for development SHER / Mhylab / ARTELIA-Madagascar in the near-term Executive Summary - April 2017 Page 29 Small Hydro Madagascar ESMAP / The World Bank Contract n°7171214 5 Prioritized sites for development in the short term SELECTION OF THE 20 PRIORITIZED SMALL HYDRO SITES FOR SHORT TERM DEVELOPMENT For the selection of the 20 prioritized sites, we then process sites in groups, determined by whether they are located within the same geographical area that can be connected either to an existing network or to a single centre with a thermal generator. This is necessary since all the sites that are close to each other will be in direct competition to supply the same consumption centres. The criteria used to make the selection of the 20 prioritized sites are presented in the table below: 1. Group sites within the same load centre or grid; 2. Estimate capacity between 1 and 20 MW; 3. Q50% and hydropower work fitted to a small hydropower [Q50% < 50 m³/s]; 4. LCOE (excluding access and off-line)< 70 US$/MWh or LCOE (with access and lines) < 120 US$/MWh (Interconnected Network) or < 200 US$/MWh (Remote Centre); 5. No evidence of environmental stress including sediment transport. We review the five criteria used below: Group of sites for the same load centre or grid The projects are grouped by their ability to connect to the nearest consumption centre, either to one of the 3 interconnected networks or to a remote network with a generator. SHER / Mhylab / ARTELIA-Madagascar Executive Summary - April 2017 Page 30 Small Hydro Madagascar ESMAP / The World Bank Contract n°7171214 Predicted power between 1 and 20 MW This criterion is clearly stated in the terms of reference. Note however that this criterion had been slightly adapted in previous phases given the uncertainty on the collected data, to avoid prematurely eliminating good projects. Note however that some sites are located in areas where the uncertainty of hydrological data is still rather high, which can have a positive or negative influence on the final installed capacity or production. Q50% and hydropower work fitted to a small hydropower [Q50% < 50 m³/s] In order to stay within in the flow ranges and equipment relevant to a small hydropower, it is recommended that Q50% does not to exceed 50 m³/s. Above this rates, projects become more complex: major floods require appropriate flood evacuation work, water transmission facilities substantial and fiscal risks more important. LCOE (excluding access and off-take line) < 70 US$/MWh or LCOE (with access and lines) < 120 US$/MWh (Interconnected Network) or < 200 US$/MWh (Remote Centre); In accordance with the economic constraints, the consultant has set a maximum threshold of US$ 70 / MWh taking account of the project only, without the access and connection costs (which nonetheless have an impact on the viability of the project). Conservatively, we retain the intermediate position in the costs range per kWh of JIRAMA 2011 (40 to 100 US$ / MWh) which is 70 US$ / MWh. A second economic indicator of importance is the LCOE of the project including the cost of access and connection to the network or to a remote site. We hold as a maximum 120 US$ / MWh for sites that can be connected to one of three interconnected networks and 200 US$ / MWh for remote sites connected to a thermal group. No evidence of environmental constraint including sediment transport Site visits have enabled us to identify readily identifiable criteria limiting the development of promising potential sites. These include the site’s location within protected area, the presence of Lavaka erosion features or other important sediment transport features, even when observed only in the dry season. SHER / Mhylab / ARTELIA-Madagascar Executive Summary - April 2017 Page 31 Small Hydro Madagascar ESMAP / The World Bank Contract n°7171214 SHER / Mhylab / ARTELIA-Madagascar Executive Summary - April 2017 Page 32 Small Hydro Madagascar ESMAP / The World Bank Contract n°7171214 RESULTS OF THE SELECTION : 20 PRIORITIZED SITES The table below gives a short description of the prioritized sites selection as proposed by the consultant CAPEX LCOE line LCOE @Q50% Water- Capacity Energy and Q50% Head @Q50% + line Environmental Name Group River shed @ Q50% @ Q50% access (m3/s) (m) (US$/MWh +access restriction (km²) (MW) (GWh/y) include ) (US$/MWh d ) (MUS$) Moderate sediment Ilengy - B B Mananara 1727.7 45.28 24.0 9.0 66.8 66.2 53.1 120.0 transport SF011 Marimbona 1408.6 39.76 55.0 18.1 134.5 90.7 64.0 81.3 Low Moderate sediment SF019 C Sandratsiona 2419.6 38.84 36.0 11.6 84.0 70.2 60.9 100.8 transport SF020 Sandratsio 2093.4 23.82 90.0 17.7 126.2 80.1 42.1 77.4 Low Moderate sediment SF015 Maningory 8109.6 46.92 27.0 10.5 69.7 41.8 52.4 72.8 transport D Moderate sediment SF118 Maningory 8422.6 48.73 91.0 36.7 243.6 97.1 38.2 48.9 transport 170. SF147 Iovay 120.1 5.50 7.7 57.8 55.1 54.7 115.3 Low 0 F Moderate sediment SF148 Morongolo 216.7 10.98 24.0 2.2 16.4 28.0 64.3 205.4 transport 123. Ambodimanga Laroka 179.6 10.68 10.8 81.9 31.0 36.7 46.3 Low 0 G 350. Analamanaha Analamanaha 54.1 0.74 2.1 15.0 14.3 97.7 114.3 Competition irrigation 0 Fanovana Sanatanora 496.4 18.95 68.0 10.7 80.0 26.0 33.8 39.9 Low Moderate sediment Antaralava I Imorona 463.2 5.45 32.0 1.4 10.2 9.6 69.7 114.0 transport / competition irrigation Moderate sediment Vohinaomby J Antsakoama 381.1 3.27 22.0 0.6 4.1 6.1 117.7 175.8 transport Behingitika K Manandriana 267.7 12.48 45.0 4.7 35.0 17.1 43.5 59.6 Low 151. SF196 Besana 117.4 7.67 9.6 72.2 32.0 34.1 54.4 Low 0 112. Antanjona Sahanofa 393.6 14.86 13.8 103.2 48.6 42.4 57.3 Low 0 Tambohorano Faravory 413.6 21.72 42.0 7.5 56.8 27.7 51.2 58.9 Low Andriamanjav M Namorona 813.2 20.52 61.0 10.4 76.8 30.4 43.6 48.1 Low ona SF038A Namorona 1224.6 43.83 35.0 12.7 95.2 46.6 45.3 59.5 Low SF195 Namorona 784.2 18.92 50.0 7.8 58.1 25.7 34.3 54.4 Low The heads vary between 22m for the smallest and 350m for the biggest. The average watershed is 1500km²: the smallest has a surface area of 54km² and the largest 8420km². Estimated flows (Q50%) vary from 0.75 m³/s to 48 m³/s. We can see in the table above that the 20 prioritized hydropower sites have an average LCOE (offline and access) of US$ 54/MWh between US$ 33.8/MWh and US$ 117.7/MWh and an average LCOE (including line and access) of US$ 85/MWh between US$ 39.9/MWh and US$ 205.5/MWh. SHER / Mhylab / ARTELIA-Madagascar Executive Summary - April 2017 Page 33 Small Hydro Madagascar ESMAP / The World Bank Contract n°7171214 The average investment costs (CAPEX including access and lines) are MUS$ 42, the smallest project being at MUS$ 6.1 for a capacity of 600 kW and the largest at MUS$ 97.1 for a capacity of 36.7 MW. The total combined capacity of the 20 prioritized sites is 205 MW, with a total annual production of 1490 GWh/y. These projects could contribute nationally to an increase above the current installed capacity (552 MW) of about 37%, for a total investment of around MUS$ 844. These 20 projects could replace approximately 53% of thermal energy (389 MW) if we consider current nominal capacity, or more than 100% if we consider currently available capacity (188 MW). 11 RECOMMENDED SITES TO INTRODUCE MORE SMALL HYDROPOWER INTO LEAST COST PLANS It is quite difficult to justify small hydropower projects in a master plan at the least cost of an interconnected grid. This is mainly due to:  their production cost relatively high  the fact that the cost of lines and access represents a large share of the total investment of the project,  the fact that the firm capacity and production during periods of low water can fall, a significant disadvantage compared to thermal power plants. The introduction of more small hydropower projects in the energy master plan at the lowest possible cost, however, would have several advantages.  The annual increase in energy demand is of the order of tens of MW; a small hydropower project is the right size to meet this increment.  On average, small hydropower projects will be faster to develop than large hydro (a faster study and construction time and faster mobilization to find funding). So even though in the long term it will be of interest to integrate large projects into least cost development plans (economies of scale offer lower production costs), the introduction of small hydro projects in the short-term offers significant advantages. The table below summarizes the most interesting projects identified through this study, for which production costs remain attractive compared to thermal. For information, the average cost of JIRAMA fuel was US$ 338 / MWh in 2012 for diesel (fuel mainly used for remote centres) and 208 US$ / MWh for HFO (fuel used on the interconnected grid). The cost of oil has recently experienced a significant drop in the world market, but in the context of a more long- term vision, their costs in 2012 appear to be a good indicator. The consultant has selected projects between 5 MW and 18 MW which LCOE is maximum of US$ 70-80 / MWh. We note again that there are three sites that are cascading down the SHER / Mhylab / ARTELIA-Madagascar Executive Summary - April 2017 Page 34 Small Hydro Madagascar ESMAP / The World Bank Contract n°7171214 Namorona (SF195 / G191- Andriamanjavona / SF038), which will see their production costs go down thanks to a pooling effect and their production increase thanks to a flow-control effect. CAPEX LCOE Capacity Energy line and Q50% Head + line Code Name Group @ Q50% @ Q50% access Connection (m3/s) (m) +access (MW) (GWh/an) included (US$/MWh) (MUS$) SF011 SF011 39,76 55,0 18,1 134,5 90,7 81,3 remote C remote SF020 SF020 23,82 90,0 17,7 126,2 80,1 77,4 SF015 SF015 D 46,92 27,0 10,5 69,7 41,8 72,8 remote AD411 Ambodimanga 10,68 123,0 10,8 81,9 31,0 46,3 RIA G G407 Fanovana 18,95 68,0 10,7 80,0 26,0 39,9 RIA SF196 SF196 L 7,67 151,0 9,6 72,2 32,0 54,4 remote AD631 Antanjona 14,86 112,0 13,8 103,2 48,6 57,3 RIF AD652 Tambohorano 21,72 42,0 7,5 56,8 27,7 58,9 RIF G191 Andriamanjavona M 20,52 61,0 10,4 76,8 30,4 48,1 RIF SF038 SF038A 43,83 35,0 12,7 95,2 46,6 59,5 RIF SF195 SF195 18,92 50,0 7,8 58,1 25,7 54,4 RIF 950 130 MW GWh/year These high added value sites could eventually introduce a capacity of 130 MW into the Malagasy electrical system with an annual energy production of 950 GWh per year, which corresponds to an increase of 80% on current hydropower installed capacity (160 MW ) and a 117% increase on hydropower production in 2013 (809 GWh). In terms of total production in Malagasy across all energy sources, these sites would add 67% (1423 GWh in 2013). Note that the two sites (AD411-Ambodimanga and G407-Fanovana) that can connect to the network of Antananarivo (RIA) are price-competitive with existing projects Antetezambato (actual cost from 50 to 70 USD / MWh - Prefeasibility Study, 2013) and Mahavola (52 EUR / MWh ~ 67 USD / MWh, 6 projects Comparative Study, 2009). These sites can also be developed in shorter development times (2.5 to 4 years) than those related to major projects that require more lengthy (6-10 years) time. The development of Antetezambato for example, was planned over 7 years. Sites that can feed the Fianarantsoa network (RIF) maintain their financial attractiveness even in the context of a future interconnection of the three networks (RIA, RIT, GIR). Eventually, if the planned interconnection with Manakara and Mananjary (RIFMM) occurs, these sites will support the development of this network. Overall, these sites have strong potential to attract JIRAMA or the private sector through appropriate mechanisms of public-private partnerships. SHER / Mhylab / ARTELIA-Madagascar Executive Summary - April 2017 Page 35 Small Hydro Madagascar ESMAP / The World Bank Contract n°7171214 SELECTION OF PROMISING SITES STUDIED AT AN ADVANCED STAGE OR PLANNED FOR DEVELOPMENT BY THE MOE In parallel to the selection process of new promising sites, a bibliographical analysis was conduct on the sites already at an advanced stage of studies or planned for development by the MoE, that match the study criteria.The figure below introduces the selection process and criteria that were applied to determine a selection of promising site for short-term investments. The criteria are:  An expected installed capacity between 1 to 20 MW;  No Memorendum of Understanding (MoU) signed between a potential investor and the Government of Madagascar. Please note that the existing list at the Ministry of Energy is in need of updating;  A moderate level of study. The sites with an advanced study (prefeasibility, feasibility, detailed design) are not included;  The sites must be located outside of protected areas. The table below presents the results of the selection process for promising sites matching the selection criteria amongst the sites studied at an advanced stage or planned for development. These 8 sites were visited to update their technical and economical parameters allowing them to be compared with the new prioritized potential sites. Design flow Power CODE NAME RIVER Gross head (m) Q50% (m³/s) (MW) AD490 Andalona Andratsay 12 15.8 1.6 G023 Ambatoharanana Bemarivo 12 71.1 7.1 AD313 Ampondrokoh Maheriara 18 1.2 0.173 AD342 Manankazo Manankazo 40 1.8 0.594 AD354 Andriabe Demoka 12 8.8 0.880 FR148 Vohibato Mananara 21 88.9 15.5 G325 Antsiafampiana Sahafihatra 5 11.1 0.46 G546 Marobakoly Ajingo 5 22.4 0.93 SHER / Mhylab / ARTELIA-Madagascar Executive Summary - April 2017 Page 36 Small Hydro Madagascar ESMAP / The World Bank Contract n°7171214 3 SITES RECOMMENDED TO DEVELOP REMOTE AREAS Several sites on the list haven’t got very efficient economic results. Nevertheless, these sites are close to the remote centres that will not be connected for a long time. We need to independently consider their development in consideration of growth in electricity demand at these remote centres. CAPEX LCOE Capacity Energy line and @Q50% Q50% Head Code Name Group @ Q50% @ Q50% access + line Selection (m3/s) (m) (MW) (GWh/y) included +access (MUS$) (US$/MWh) AD601 Antaralava I 5,45 32,0 1,4 10,2 9,6 114,0  AD653 Vohinaomby J 3,27 22,0 0,6 4,1 6,1 175,8  AD620 Behingitika K 12,48 45,0 4,7 35,0 17,1 59,6  Ideally, the development of this type of hydropower project should be followed up by ADER or institutional partners. Note that the AD601 site-Antaralava cannot be considered as an integrated irrigation / hydropower project because it is currently used for irrigation via an existing weir. An integrated development of this site would enable its LCOE to be improved by integrating its economic agricultural potential and its social impact. Concerning the AD620, note that despite the favourable LCOE, we need to wait a few years before the demand of South Ambodimanga and its surrounding villages reach the available production. To not “waste” the project by undersizing the infrastructure, phasing of the infrastructure is recommended (for example: space for a future additional penstock and turbine). FURTHER FIELD INVESTIGATIONS AND HYDROLOGICAL MONITORING Further field investigations have been carried out in the frame of Phase 2 (Ground-based data collection). The results are presented in the “Site Investigation Report” in Appendix E of this Executive Summary. It aims at providing an overview, at reconnaissance level, of the 17 most promising potential small hydropower sites in Madagascar. The selection process for those 17 sites has been carried out during Phase 1 and results have been validated during the workshop held in Antananarivo in June 2015 at the Ministère de l’Energie et des Hydrocarbures premises. This selection of the 17 sites is the result of a complex spatial planning exercise based notably on economic, environmental and energy supply/demand balancing criterion. It constitutes the list of priority sites for the short-term development of small hydropower in Madagascar. Of these 17 sites, three (3) have been recommended for the development of remote areas and three (3) other sites come from potential sites previously studied a more or less advanced stage (up to feasibility level) and/or planned in the energy sector development plans by the SHER / Mhylab / ARTELIA-Madagascar Executive Summary - April 2017 Page 37 Small Hydro Madagascar ESMAP / The World Bank Contract n°7171214 Ministry of Energy (after site visits of eight potential sites that met the criterion established during Phase 1). The selection process highlighting the origin of the selected 17 potential hydropower sites is illustrated in the Figure hereafter. The findings presented in this report are based on high level technical site investigations that include site visits, topographical surveys (based on the processing of ortho-photogrammetric images acquired by a light airplane), characterization of the surface geology and socio- economic environment and a regional desk-based hydrological study. In parallel of those field investigations, six hydrological monitoring stations have been successfully installed on the selected six rivers of Madagascar which have allowed the monitoring of the water level and the establishment of the preliminary rating curves of those rivers. The location of the six monitoring stations is presented in the table below. LONGITUDE LATITUDE WATERSHED DATE OF RIVER (MAJOR WATERSHED) SITE NAME [DD] [DD] AREA [KM²] INSTALLATION Besana (bassin de la SF196 (Mahatsara) 47.915 -21.03 124.9 22/10/2015 Mananjary) Sahatandra (bassin de la G407 (Fanovana) 48.533 -18.919 511.7 18/10/2015 Rianila) Namorona (basin de la G191 (Namorona 2) 47.597 -21.378 862.3 20/10/2015 Namorona) Manandriana (bassin de la AD620 (Amohimanga du Sud) 47.592 -20.876 250.2 25/10/2015 Mananjary) Marimbona (bassin de la SF011 (Fotsialanana) 49.458 -16.92 1495.4 21/10/2015 Marimbona) Sandratsiona (bassin de la SF020 (Ambatoharanana) 42.212 -17.151 2389.3 23/10/2015 Maningory) The records cover one complete hydrological year, from October 2015 to October 2016 which appears to be particularly dry. Hence, it is important to continue the monitoring of the rivers in order to obtain a better understanding of the dynamics of the rivers during normal and wet SHER / Mhylab / ARTELIA-Madagascar Executive Summary - April 2017 Page 38 Small Hydro Madagascar ESMAP / The World Bank Contract n°7171214 years. It is indeed only with long periods of records (over 20 years) that hydrological information is most valuable for the design of infrastructure such as hydropower scheme. It is strongly recommended that the Government of Madagascar set up a hydrological monitoring network for its rivers with high hydropower potential in order to better understand the available water resources and thus promote the development of hydroelectric projects across the country. It is only in a context of reduced uncertainties through reliable, recent and long-term records (more than 20 years) that technical parameters and economic and financial analyzes of hydroelectric developments can be defined accurately, enabling optimization of their design and their flood control infrastructure (temporary and permanent). A "Hydrological Resource Report" was delivered in the context of Phase 2 (Ground based data collection) and aims to provide an overview of the hydrological monitoring network set up in the context of this study as well as to comment on hydrological data collected. All the activities carried out are described in this Report placed in Appendix F of this Executive Summary. PREFEASIBILITY STUDIES OF TWO HYDROELECTRIC SCHEMES As part of Phase 2 (Ground-based data collection), two potential sites have been studied at prefeasibility stage. The two sites are coming from the list of 17 potential sites recommended for the development of small hydropower in Madagascar. The selection of the two sites was carried out by multicriteria analysis based on the additional information and data acquired during the field investigations (Phase 2), in particular relating to topography, surface geology and environmental and social aspects. In consultation with all the participants in the project, the discussions concluded that the following sites were selected for pre-feasibility studies: G407 (Fanovana) and SF196 (Mahatsara), the main characteristics of which are given in the table below. CHARACTERISTICS FANOVANA MAHATSARA Region Alaotra-Mangoro Vatovavy Fitovinany River Sahatandra Besana Watershed area 520 km² 125 km² Design flow 16.0 m³/s 6.2 m³/s Type of scheme Run-of-the-river Run-of-the-river Installed capacity 9.23 MW 7.3 MW Average annual producible 61.78 GWh/y 47.8 GWh/y CAPEX - excluding transmission lines and existing access 13.63 M€ 15.92 M€ to be rehabilitated LCOE - excluding transmission lines and existing access 0.0264 €/kWh 0.0497 €/kWh to be rehabilitated SHER / Mhylab / ARTELIA-Madagascar Executive Summary - April 2017 Page 39 Small Hydro Madagascar ESMAP / The World Bank Contract n°7171214 At the heart of this study, a GIS database has been developed for small hydropower to support the Government of Madagascar in developing its hydropower potential GIS as a tool for transparent development of hydropower potential SHER / Mhylab / ARTELIA-Madagascar Executive Summary - April 2017 Page 40 Small Hydro Madagascar ESMAP / The World Bank Contract n°7171214 6 GIS as a tool for transparent development of hydropower potential GIS DATABASE All elements relating to the hydropower sector in Madagascar with a geographical reference are grouped in a geographical information system (GIS) whose reference coordinate system is GCS_WGS_1984 (Datum: D_WGS_1984; Prime Meridian: Greenwich; Angular Unit: Degree). The geographical information system was made to meet the condition of compatibility and standardisation defined in the terms of reference so that geographical data be easily published on the GIS platform of the World Bank. Furthermore, the consultant used the geographical information system software QuantumGIS, free to use, to process and publish the geographical data, which enables its broadcasting and free transfer during trainings in Antananarivo in 2015 and 2017. The database has a combination of vector and raster data. This database will be given in international standard format (ESRI shapefiles and geoTIFF images). A QuantumGIS project was created to group all its spatial data in a geographical information system (GIS) whose symbology is similar to maps produced in Hydro Atlas of Madagascar. The latter, presented in Appendix D of this Executive Summary, is a document containing all information directly or indirectly related to hydropower in Madagascar. An indicative illustration of the database is given above. An Excel file with the attribute information of the layers has also been given. This file has all the metadata relative to different attribute fields of the layers. Moreover, the main elements are also available in KML format (Keyhole Markup Language) usable in Google Earth to ease the use and dispersion of information to a less specialised public. SHER / Mhylab / ARTELIA-Madagascar Executive Summary - April 2017 Page 41 Small Hydro Madagascar ESMAP / The World Bank Contract n°7171214 MAINTENANCE AND UPDATE OF THE GEOGRAPHICAL DATABASE It is recommended that the Ministry of Energy sets up, as soon as possible, an institutional arrangement to maintain a sustainable database. This includes the managing the maintenance and periodic updating of the data. A unit inside the MoE should be placed in charge of the database and tasked with interacting with the related agencies (JIRAMA, ORE, ADER) on a regular basis to centralize and disseminate the information concerning the existing and potential sites. The database should also include the information relating to the agreements (Memorandum of Understanding, etc. ) between MoE and developers essential for future developments and investments into hydropower. The content of the geodatabase is presented in the table below. Thematic Format Main characteristics Administrative limits: Country ESRI Shapefile - Administrative limits: Provinces ESRI Shapefile 6 provinces Administrative limits Regions ESRI Shapefile 22 regions Administrative limits Districts ESRI Shapefile 110 districts Administrative limits Municipalities ESRI Shapefile 1433 municipalities Existing hydropower sites ESRI Shapefile 11 main sites Thermal power stations ESRI Shapefile 171 main thermal groups Main towns ESRI Shapefile 32 main towns Sites of the Système d'Aires Protégées Shapefile of the SAPM sites - Arrêté interministériel de Madagascar (SAPM) ESRI Shapefile n°9874/2013 modifiant certaines dispositions de l’arrêté n°52005/2010 (version April 2011) Digital Elevation Model (DEM) GeoTiff Spatial resolution of ~90m Road network ESRI Shapefile National roads, main roads and tracks RIA (Interconnected network of Antananarivo) - RIT Interconnected electrical networks (RI) ESRI Shapefile (Interconnected network of Toamasina - RIF (Interconnected network of Fianarantsoa) Satellite image of Madagascar GeoTiff Landsat image (2005) 8 land use classes: - Culture - Forest - Thicket Land use ESRI Shapefile - Mangrove - Swamp - Water body - Savannah - Reforested area 33 promising potential hydropower sites in capacity range ~ 1- Potential hydropower sites ESRI Shapefile 20MW Potential hydropower sites known or studied by the Ministère de Potential hydropower sites ESRI Shapefile l'Energie et des Hydrocarbures and the related entities Potential hydropower sites ESRI Shapefile Raw database of 403 potential hydropower sites in Madagascar SHER / Mhylab / ARTELIA-Madagascar Executive Summary - April 2017 Page 42