d i s c u s s i o n pa p e r n u m B e r 1 6 decemBer 2010 d e v e l o p m e n t a n d c l i m at e c h a n g e d i s c u s s i o n pa p e r s 1 58904 d e v e l o p m e n t a n d c l i m a t e c h a n g e The Social Dimensions of Adaptation to Climate Change in Mozambique d i s c U s s i o n pA p E R n U m B E R 1 6 d E c E m B E R 2 0 1 0 E c o n o m i c s o f A d A p t A t i o n t o c l i m A t E c h A n g E The Social Dimensions of Adaptation to Climate Change in Mozambique prepared by Anthony Patt (international institute for Applied systems Analysis), with Raul Varela (independent consultant), Isilda Nhantumbo (independent consultant), and Livia Bizikova (international institute for sustainable development) Papers in this series are not formal publications of the World Bank. They are circulated to encourage thought and discussion. The use and citation of this paper should take this into account. The views expressed are those of the authors and should not be attributed to the World Bank. Copies are available from the Environment Department of the World Bank by calling 202-473-3641. © 2010 The International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/ The World Bank 1818 H St., NW Washington, DC 20433 U.S.A. Telephone: 202-473-1000 Internet: www.worldbank.org/climatechange E-mail: feedback@worldbank.org All rights reserved. December 2010 This paper is based upon work that has been commissioned by the World Bank as part of the Economics of Adaptation to Climate Change study. The results reported in the paper are preliminary and subject to revision. The analysis, results, and views expressed in the paper are those of the authors alone and do not represent the position of the World Bank or any of its member countries. Papers in this series are not formal publications of the World Bank. They are circulated to encourage thought and discussion. Copies are available from the World Bank Environment Department by calling 202-473-3641. The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this work. The boundaries, colors, denominations, and other information shown or any map in this work do not imply any judgment on the part of the World Bank concerning the legal status of any territory or the endorsement or acceptances of such boundaries. RIGHTS AND PERMISSIONS The material in this publication is copyrighted. Copying and/or transmitting portions or all of this work without permission may be a violation of applica- ble law. The International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/The World Bank encourages dissemination of its work and will normally grant permission to reproduce portions of the work promptly. For permission to photocopy or reprint any part of this work, please send a request with complete information to the Copyright Clearance Center Inc., 222 Rosewood Drive, Danvers, MA 01923, USA; telephone 978-750-4470; Internet: www.copyright.com Cover photo courtesy of Jonathan Ernst/World Bank. iii Table of ConTenTs AcRonYms And ABBREViAtions vii AcknowlEdgmEnts viii 1. intRodUction And oVERViEw 1 The EACC study 1 The Process of the Study 3 The Outline of this Report 3 2. sociAl dimEnsions of climAtE chAngE in mozAmBiqUE 5 Expected Physical Impacts of Climate Change in Mozambique 5 Current Hazards 5 How the Hazards Will Change Because of Climate Change. 7 National Planning for Climate Change: NAPA and Other Strategies 8 Overview of Social Vulnerability in Mozambique 11 Bottom-up Research Studies. 11 Studies Using the Household Food Economy Approach 14 Top-down Approaches 15 3. REsEARch mEthodologY 17 Research Strategy and Questions 17 Site Selection and Sampling 17 4. pARticipAtoRY scEnARio dEVElopmEnt woRkshop REsUlts 21 PSD Workshops: Design Overview 21 Overview of Results from Local and National Workshops 22 Xai Xai Key Insights. 22 Beira Key Insights. 24 Maputo Key Insights. 25 Synthesis. 25 iv t h E s o c i A l d i m E n s i o n s o f A d A p tAt i o n t o c l i m At E c h A n g E i n m o z A m B i q U E Adaptation Options: Key Sectoral Themes 26 Agriculture and Ranching. 26 Agroforestry 26 Fishing 26 Trade and Commerce. 26 Identification of Most Vulnerable Groups 28 Relative Prevalence of "Hard" Versus "Soft" Adaptation Options 29 Congruence with National Plans, including NAPAs 30 Policy Preconditions and Institutional Base 31 Conclusions from the Workshop Track 32 6. fiEldwoRk REsUlts 33 Results from Institutional Interviews 33 Results from Focus Group Discussions 34 Results from Household Surveys 35 Household Size, Resource Access, and Self-Sufficiency. 36 Experience with Climate Hazards. 37 Past Adaptation and Coping Practices. 38 Planned Adaptation and Strategies. 40 Who Should Help? 40 Synthesis of Quantitative Findings from Household Survey 40 Synthesis of Fieldwork Results 41 7. sYnthEsis And discUssion 42 Adaptation Options 42 Differential Vulnerability 43 Limitations of the Study 44 Conclusions 45 REfEREncEs 47 AppEndixEs 50 AppEndix 1.intEREsting REsUlts fRom indiVidUAl focUs gRoUp discUssions 50 AppEndix 2. sURVEY instRUmEnt 54 AppEndix 3. fiEld REpoRt sUBmittEd octoBER 5, 2009, BY RAUl VARElA 59 d E V E l o p m E n t A n d c l i m At E c h A n g E d i s c U s s i o n pA p E R s v TABLes table 1. most important disaster types in terms of numbers Affected and killed 6 table 2. Risk and Vulnerability factors According to natural disasters in the Búzi district 12 table 3. Adaptation pathways identified in the maputo workshop 25 table 4. workshop Results 26 table 5. specific Results and suggestions from the workshops 27 table 6. key findings in the fishing sector 27 table 7. key findings for the trade and commerce sectors 27 table 8. key Adaptation options from psd workshops 30 table 9. interesting lessons from the focus group interviews 34 table 10. Aggregate Results from focus group discussions 35 table 11. key Adaptation options from fieldwork 43 FIguRes figure 1. social Vulnerability in mozambique projected to 2060 2 figure 2. number of people Affected or killed by natural disasters in African countries, 1990­2007. 5 figure 3. a and b. precipitation and drought. 6 figure 4. a and b. flood Risk maps. 7 figure 5. a­d. projections made by the ingc study. 9 figure 6. changes in flood Risk. 10 figure 7. Estimates of changing Risk levels between 2000 and 2060. 15 figure 8. social Vulnerability hotspots. 19 figure 9. final fieldwork sites. 20 figure 10. steps in Regional and national workshops. 23 figure 11. mapping of geographical origin and Expertise. 24 figure 12. Vulnerable Regions identified in the xai xai workshop. 28 figure 13. Regions identified as most Vulnerable in the maputo workshop. 29 figure 14. distribution of household sizes. 36 figure 15. proportion of field sizes in high and lowland Areas. 36 figure 16. cumulative distribution of crops kept for household consumption. 36 figure 17. number of months that household grain stocks from own harvest last. 37 figure 18. proportions Affected by climatic hazards and Receiving Early warning of these. 37 figure 19. Ranking of hazards by Residents. 37 figure 20. coping mechanisms Before, during, and immediately After climatic hazards. 39 vii aCRonYMs anD abbReVIaTIons CCGC Coordination Council for Disaster Management CRED Center for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters EACC Economics of Adaptation to Climate Change FEWS-NET Famine Early Warning System Network GEF Global Environment Facility HEA Household Economy Approach IISD International Institute for Sustainable Development IPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change NAPA National Adaptation Program of Action INGC National Disaster Management Agency MDGs Millennium Development Goals MICOA Ministry for the Coordination of Environmental Affairs NAPA National Adaptation Program of Action PSD Participatory Scenario Development SRES Special Report on Emissions Scenarios UNFCCC United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change viii aCknowleDgMenTs (AFTEN). Research partners in Mozambique were Anthony Patt of IIASA, who led the study team comprising Raul Varela and Isilda Nhantumbo. Support The social component of the Economics of Adaptation in methodology and workshop design and for training to Climate Change (EACC) study was developed of trainers for the Participatory Scenario Development through the joint efforts of the World Bank Social (PSD) workshops was provided by Livia Bizikova Development (SDV) and Environment Departments (IISD), Philip Bailey, and Samantha Boardley (all (ENV) and the LCR, AFR, EAP, and SAR Regions of ESSA). A separate report is available summarizing this the World Bank; ESSA Technologies Ltd and the PSD work, along with a training of trainers manual at International Institute for Sustainable Development www.worldbank.org/eacc. (IISD), Canada; and research institutions in Bolivia, Bangladesh, Ethiopia, Ghana, Mozambique, and We could not have completed this work without the Vietnam. The study was undertaken by a core team led continuous logistical support provided by Hawanty by Robin Mearns and comprising Anne Kuriakose, Page (ENV), Grace Aguilar (ENV), Mustafa Carina Bachofen, Nilufar Ahmad, and Minna Kononen Pajazetovic, and Carmen Martinel (both SDV). We (all SDV). An overall synthesis report of all six country gratefully acknowledge editorial services provided by reports has been prepared and is available at www. Robert Livernash, and production management worldbank.org/eacc. The study was designed and imple- provided by Danielle Christophe (SDV) and Robert mented in close collaboration with the team leader for Reinecke. the overall EACC study (Sergio Margulis), and Ana Bucher, Laurent Cretegny, Urvashi Narain, Kiran The Mozambique country study has benefited greatly Pandey, Robert Schneider (all ENV), and sector from peer review comments and other feedback from consultants. World Bank staff, including Carolyn Winter (AFTCS), and from external peer reviewers, including Katrina The Mozambique country study for the social compo- Brown and Richard Klein. nent was led by Carina Bachofen (SDV), under the overall guidance of Robin Mearns, in collaboration with Any remaining errors and omissions are entirely those the EACC country team leader Jean-Christophe Carret of the country study team. 1 1. InTRoDuCTIon anD oVeRVIew social vulnerability rests on the premise that the extent to which climate change harms people depends on a broad set of factors having to do with individual The ea CC sTuDY empowerment to weather storms and to make changes, and the extent to which social interactions contribute to The purpose of the Economics of Adaptation to Climate or detract from that empowerment (Adger 1999; Brooks Change (EACC) study is to better understand and esti- et al. 2005). So one purpose of this study is to find out mate the true costs of adapting to climate change in less what individual and social factors make people more or developed countries. The study is made up of three less vulnerable, and to identify adaptation strategies that components. At a global level, there is an analysis of costs would reduce that vulnerability (Cutter 2001). The idea across different economic sectors. At a country level, of social vulnerability also rests on the premise that there is an economic component and a social component, within any community there are some people who are taking place in a set of representative case study coun- especially vulnerable, and a just society should take steps tries. Mozambique is one of these countries. to help them in particular. So a second purpose of this study of social vulnerability and adaptation is to identify The economic component of the Mozambique country those livelihood activities and people likely to be most study has the objective of identifying a set of robust harmed by climate change, and then identify realistic adaptation options for the country, then comparing the ways of improving their situations (Osbahr et al. 2008). direct costs and benefits of those options. To calculate the costs, the team has utilized a computable general This study builds on a recent assessment of social equilibrium method. This method is data intensive--it vulnerability in Mozambique, conducted as part of a requires a good model of the national economy--but study led by the National Disaster Management Agency can generate an estimate of the costs of targeted (INGC). Patrick Nussbaumer took a standard social government interventions, in terms of reduced overall vulnerability framework from the literature--previously economic growth, once those effects have trickled used to rank African countries (Vincent 2004; Vincent through the labor and capital markets and the economy 2007)--that relied on a set of a dozen indicators. He has returned to equilibrium. The economic team estimated future trends in these indicators consistent considered a range of adaptation options, which were with two development scenarios--the A2 and B1 gathered from the literature and from interactions with Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) of the national level policy makers and other stakeholders. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (Nakicenovic and Swart 2000)--to see where The social component of the Mozambique country Mozambique will be in 50 years compared to now and study has a less precisely defined purpose, and this compared to other African countries behind which it reflects the relative ambiguity of the term "social vulner- currently lags. Figure 1 shows the results. As is evident, ability" in the first place. Crudely stated, the concept of the social vulnerability of Mozambique by 2060 looks 2 t h E s o c i A l d i m E n s i o n s o f A d A p tAt i o n t o c l i m At E c h A n g E i n m o z A m B i q U E better than that of South Africa today. That is good If one could be completely "rational" or "logical" in our news for people who think that South Africa is in rela- analysis, the two approaches would end up in the same tively good shape. It would suggest, perhaps, that to place. But we are not that perfect, and as researchers estimate future climate change impacts on people in and as stakeholders tend to become anchored in Mozambique in the future we should think about the particular visions of the world. By considering devel- effects on people in South Africa today. opment first, we try to free our minds to consider a future for the country that is quite different than the That study, however, was relatively silent on the issue of present. Perhaps there will be no subsistence farmers adaptation. A key issue for this study, then, is to move in 50 years, just like subsistence farming vanished forward and reach conclusions about adaptation based from North America and Europe in the 20th Century. on an appraisal of social vulnerability. If that is the case, then we free our minds from considering the impacts on subsistence farmers, and In this study, we have taken the deliberate approach of instead consider the impacts of people's transition considering development first, and then putting climate from being subsistence farmers into being something change on top of that, rather than the other way around. else. This means identifying where the country and its people are headed and would like to go, and associating numer- Another purpose of this study, then, is to inform the ous activities and steps with the achievement of that process of vulnerability assessment, which continues to progress. Then, we have looked at where climate change evolve to suit the needs of policy makers more may interfere with those activities and steps, and hence completely (Patt et al. 2008). We are interested in seeing threaten the development vision. Adaptations are things whether taking a development-first approach is even that allow the development vision to proceed. The alter- possible: It seems nice when written on paper, but can native approach, which is what has arguably guided most people really think this way when called to work on a research efforts to date, is to start with the identification study with climate change in its title? If we can take the of climate impacts, and see how these might negatively approach, and stick to it, do we in fact arrive at results affect society as it is structured now. After having done that are different from the more traditional impacts-led so, one then sees how future development pathways may approach? This is a crucial issue to evaluate in the exacerbate or ameliorate this situation. conclusion of this report. fIguRe 1. soCIal VulneRabIlITY In MozaMbIque PRojeCTeD To 2060 0.6 0.6 A2 B1 Mozambique Mozambique Zimbabwe Poverty Zimbabwe Social Vulnerability Index Social Vulnerability Index 0.5 Urbanization 0.5 Poverty Dependent Urbanization population Telephones Dependent 0.4 South Africa Rural 0.4 South Africa population population Telephones Rural Total SVI population Total SVI 0.3 0.3 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 Source: Patt and nussbaumer (2009). note: The two graphs show the relative contribution of different factors to the reduction of social vulnerability, relying on a theoretically informed model. d E V E l o p m E n t A n d c l i m At E c h A n g E d i s c U s s i o n pA p E R s 3 The PR o Cess of The sT uDY for analysis in November. Phases 3, 4, and 5 took place iteratively, commencing in mid-November and In planning this study, the World Bank staff designed a completed in January 2010. This report is a result of five-step methodology, following an ambitious schedule. that work. Phase 1 would summarize existing literature on differ- ent livelihood groups, including their relative vulnerabil- T h e o u TlI n e o f T hI s R ePo RT ities. It would then engage in discussions with a wide range of stakeholders to provide details on hotspots of This report follows the chronology of the work in the vulnerability (i.e., by livelihood groups and by location), country study as that work actually took place. including a detailed description of that vulnerability and existing adaptive capacity. Phase 2 would conduct a · The first section contains a review of existing number of workshops in order to develop adaptation knowledge about vulnerability and adaptation in scenarios. Phase 3 would analyze the social effects of Mozambique, including the institutional landscape the different scenarios. Phase 4 would add to the social within which adaptation planning has taken place. analysis by incorporating economic analysis, using the Much of the material in section 2 has been copied results of computable general equilibrium models to from the inception report. identify distributions of costs and benefits. Phase 5, · The second section describes the general approach taking place contemporaneously, would be the prepara- to conducting original research within this project. tion of a final country case study report so the results This methodology was agreed upon over the course could be evaluated in conjunction with the other of several months, after the inception report had countries. been submitted, and concluded with discussions in Ghana in June. It includes a map of the locations Actual work on the study followed the same general where fieldwork ultimately took place and the guid- outline to a large extent, but the scheduling changed a ing questions for the work. great deal, due to unanticipated difficulties finalizing · The third section describes the results from the contracts, scheduling meetings, and resolving payment three PSD workshops. Results from the first of issues. The only structural result of the change in sched- these workshops--which took place in Xai Xai-- uling was that the Phase 2 workshops preceded the had already been submitted to the World Bank by stakeholder discussions designed for Phase 1; this had this consultant, while the results from the third little practical significance. Thus, the first part of Phase workshop--in Maputo--had been submitted by 1 involved conducting an institutional analysis, an iden- ESSA and IISD. The second workshop, in Beira, tification of socio-geographic zones, and a review of took place under the direction of the local existing livelihood assessments in those zones. All of Mozambique project team, and they supplied this was included in an inception report, submitted by detailed notes about that workshop to this consul- the lead consultant in mid-February 2009. Phase 2 tant. Hence, section 4 pulls these three sets of consisted of a set of "participatory scenario develop- results together into one place, allowing for compar- ment" (PSD) workshops, under the guidance of the ing across the three workshops. Mozambique country team and in coordination with a · The fourth section describes the results from the consultant team from Canada, ESSA Technologies, and fieldwork, which took place in late August and the International Institute for Sustainable Development early September 2009. That fieldwork consisted of (IISD). ESSA Technologies and IISD organized a trial three activities: a set of institutional interviews, a PSD workshop in Ghana in June 2009, at which final set of focus group discussions with representative scheduling decisions were made, namely to hold three stakeholder groups, and a household survey. The workshops in Mozambique in July and August. results here are based on the field notes from the Following these workshops, in September, the country first two activities, translated from Portuguese into team conducted interviews and surveys in a targeted set English by an additional consultant in Washington of field sites, in order to supplement the existing litera- DC, and on a data file containing the results from ture. Results from this fieldwork were available the household survey. 4 t h E s o c i A l d i m E n s i o n s o f A d A p tAt i o n t o c l i m At E c h A n g E i n m o z A m B i q U E · Finally, the fifth section synthesizes the findings a more complete picture of how participants conceptu- and draws out the key conclusions that are relevant alized climate change vulnerability and adaptation. for policy. Annex 2 consists of the household survey instrument. It is in Portuguese, which is the language in which it was There are three annexes. Annex 1 consists of this written, and from which it has not been translated. consultant's identification of the important lessons from Annex 3 consists of the field report from the lead local each of the focus group discussions. These help to paint consultant, Raul Varela. 5 2. soCIal DIMensIons of ClIMaTe fIguRe 2. nuMbeR of PeoPle affeCTeD oR Change In MozaMbIque kIlleD bY naTuRal DIsasTeRs In afRICan CounTRIes, 1990­2007 e x Pe CT e D PhYsICal IMPaCTs of ClIM aTe Change In MozaMbIque 10 Madagascar Mozambique Malawi Current hazards per millon annually Tanzania People killed, South Africa Zimbabwe 0.1 As with many other countries in Africa (Boko et al. 2007), Mozambique's vulnerability to climate change is Zambia Swaziland in large part defined by its vulnerability to natural hazards (República de Moçambique 2007; Ehrhart and 0.01 Twena 2006; Comité de Conselheiros 2003; Nkomo et 0.001 0.01 0.1 1 10 100 1,000 People affected, per thousand annually al. 2006; and Mavie 2003). The three main hazards that Mozambique faces are droughts, floods, and tropical Source: Center for Research on the epidemiology of Disasters, The ofDa/ cyclones. Figure 2 plots out the numbers of lives lost, CReD international disaster database. note: Mozambique has suffered among the highest losses of african coun- and the number of people otherwise affected (needing tries in both cases. some sort of assistance) from these three hazards over the period 1990­2007. It is taken from the database of the Center for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters (CRED). Each of the dots represents a single country in Africa, while Mozambique and its immedi- attributed with 100,000 deaths, but it is unclear how ate neighbors are labeled. As can be seen, Mozambique many of these deaths were due in large part to the has suffered among the greatest effects from natural ongoing civil war, which made relief efforts problematic. disasters in Africa. Floods, while not typically affecting as many people, typically do cause loss of life but do cause even greater Table 1 lists the most important disasters recorded in losses in terms of infrastructure. The flood of 2000, for Mozambique, sorted according to the number of people example, caused an estimated $419 million worth of affected and requiring some sort of assistance during damage and set back the country's development by and after the event. Droughts have affected the most years. Storms, most prominently tropical cyclones, are people and caused the most deaths. However, one needs the third major hazard, and also cause a great deal of to be cautious about how many people have been killed infrastructure loss. Epidemics are a secondary hazard by droughts; for example, the drought of 1981 is often brought on by one of the other three, either 6 t h E s o c i A l d i m E n s i o n s o f A d A p tAt i o n t o c l i m At E c h A n g E i n m o z A m B i q U E Table 1. MosT IMPoRTanT DIsasTeR TYPes fIguRes 3a anD 3b. PReCIPITaTIon anD In TeRMs of nuMbeRs affeCTeD anD DRoughT kIlleD 3a. Number of Number Disaster events affected Number killed drought 10 16,444,000 100,200 flood 20 9,039,000 1,900 storms 17 3,002,400 700 Epidemic 18 314,000 2,500 Source: IngC. because of a deterioration in safe drinking water provi- sion or the spread of tropical disease vectors. One of the most important determinants of agricultural suitability is rainfall. Figure 3a is taken from the National Adaptation Program of Action (NAPA, p. 68) and shows average annual precipitation in millimeters of rainfall. It shows that most of the country receives an 3b average of between 600 and 1,200 mm of rainfall annu- ally, which is generally sufficient for maize or cassava cultivation. Some areas--mountainous regions in the north--receive more than this, while the low-lying inland region in the south receives substantially less. Corresponding to the variability in rainfall is the risk of drought. Figure 3b shows the risk of drought through- out the country. The highest risk levels are, not surpris- ingly, where the average annual rainfall is also the lowest, and hence the chances of receiving insufficient rainfall to support crop growth is quite high. Also high in risk are several districts in the inland central region. These also receive relatively little rainfall. While usually costing fewer lives than droughts, floods are often the most visible hazard hitting the country. The most notable recent example was in 2000. In early February 2000, heavy rains started to fall across much of Sources: República de Moçambique, National Adaptation Program of Action southern Africa, hitting southern Mozambique the (NAPA) 2007, p. 39, and INGC. hardest. On February 9 the capital of Mozambique, note: The hash-marked areas in figure 3a are those where stakeholder inter- Maputo, was flooded, with slums in the peri-urban areas views were conducted in support of the naPa, which is not relevant for this study. figure 3b shows the drought risk mapped throughout the country, indi- hardest hit, and the road north to Beira underwater. cating the highest risk levels in the inland south--where average precipitation The rains continued, and on February 11 the Limpopo is also the lowest--as well as the inland central region of the country, where River, north of Maputo, broke its banks, contaminating average precipitation is higher. d E V E l o p m E n t A n d c l i m At E c h A n g E d i s c U s s i o n pA p E R s 7 the water supply and bringing dysentery to the local population. The worst came on February 22, when fIguRes 4a anD 4b. flooD RIsk MaPs Cyclone Eline hit the Mozambique coast near Beira, 4a. with winds of 260 km/h and torrential rains. Eline worked its way inland, dropping huge quantities of water on the Limpopo River catchment area. That water followed its way down the Limpopo River valley, and on February 27 flash floods occurred in the Gaza Province of Mozambique, arriving suddenly and bury- ing the low-lying farmlands in the Chókwe and Xai Xai Districts under four to eight meters of water. Residents climbed trees and rooftops, but with only a few boats and less than a dozen helicopters available to evacuate over 100,000 people, over 7,000 people were stranded in trees for several days. Eight hundred people died, hundreds of thousands were left homeless, and 2 million were affected. Over 90 percent of the irrigation systems in Mozambique were lost. In the immediate aftermath of the floods, losses were estimated at $273 million in direct costs, and $428 million in optimal standard reconstruction costs (World Bank 2000). 4b Figure 4a shows the exposure to flooding in terms of actual floodplains (taken from INGC), while Figure 4b shows flood vulnerability at the district level. It shows the Limpopo River floodplain to be the most risky region in the country, followed by the floodplains near the Buzi and Zambezi rivers. Also at risk are coastal regions in the central and northern regions of the coun- try, due to tropical cyclones. It should be noted that the tidal range in the central region of the country is excep- tionally high due to tidal currents in the Mozambique Channel, which could account for the risk levels in the central region, outside of the Buzi River lowlands. how the hazards will Change because of Climate Change A critical question is how these risks will change in the future because of climate change. Here, the results are somewhat ambiguous, as well as regionally differenti- ated. One reason for the ambiguity is that Mozambique straddles an area where the effects of climate change are likely to go in opposite directions. Sources: República de Moçambique, National Adaptation Program of Action In southern Africa, the general trend as a result of (NAPA) 2007; sundararajan and williams 2008, p. 21; and IngC project doc- climate change is for drier conditions. Certainly this is ument. note: The highest risk levels are for the limpopo River basin, with high risk lev- expected to be the case for Zimbabwe, and large parts els as well for the buzi and zambezi river basins. Coastal regions in the north of South Africa. In East Africa, by contrast, the are also at risk from sea water inundation, particularly during tropical cyclones. 8 t h E s o c i A l d i m E n s i o n s o f A d A p tAt i o n t o c l i m At E c h A n g E i n m o z A m B i q U E general trend to be expected with climate change is for INGC data suggested a slight increase, perhaps as much wetter conditions. This is the case for Kenya and as 15 percent, in the frequency of drought, especially Tanzania. Mozambique, of course, borders both over the southern part of the country. Again, however, regions, and given uncertainty about where the line the range of estimates (derived from the range of between the two directions of change will fall, it is very models used) crossed into the range of a possible difficult to say what direction of change any part of the decrease in drought risk. country will experience. That being said, it is more likely that the southern part of the country will experi- Figure 6 shows results from the INGC flood mapping ence a trend toward drier conditions, while the north- work. The team used a statistical flood model--based ern part of the country will experience a trend toward not on exact hydrological characteristics and digital wetter conditions. But there is a great amount of elevation map, but rather on the correlation between uncertainty. Another reason for the uncertainty lies in past climatic conditions and reported flooding--to the paucity of long-time series of historical climate estimate how the risk would change in the future. As data for Mozambique and the neighboring countries; the figure caption indicates, there is a great amount of this makes it hard to calibrate climate models, and uncertainty about the direction of change: Flood risk hence to obtain reliable estimates for the future. could increase in the future, or it could decrease. It is very difficult to say more. It is also difficult to identify The best assessment to date of these changes was in a clear regional trends within the country. recent report carried out by INGC in 2008 and 2009 (Asante et al. 2009). The climate modeling team from Finally, the INGC study attempted to characterize the the University of Cape Town in South Africa changing risk levels due to tropical cyclones. Here, it is conducted a comprehensive downscaling of data from possible to identify the likely direction of change, but due climate models across the region, and had access to the to a lack of data it is very difficult to quantify that full set of Mozambique weather station data. This change. Both models and empirical data suggest a posi- report made projections for changes in temperature and tive correlation between sea surface temperatures and average precipitation, as primary impacts. As secondary cyclone intensity but no obvious correlation between sea impacts, the report made projections for changes in soil surface temperatures and cyclone frequency. Given that moisture availability (influenced by both temperature sea surface temperatures are likely to increase (McDonald and precipitation) and flooding (influenced by precipi- et al. 2005.; Bengtsson et al. 2007; and Emanuel et al. tation and mapped out onto a statistical flooding 2008), one can be confident that there will be a shift model). toward stronger cyclones, but not necessarily any change in their overall frequency. However, since damages are Figure 5 shows these projected changes that could affect related to the cube of the wind speed, strong cyclones the risk of drought. It is quite clear that temperature cause a much higher amount of damage than do weaker will rise. It also seems reasonably clear that most of the cyclones. Overall, one can expect more damages due to country--with the exception of the south--will experi- cyclones in the future. ence a rise in average precipitation. These two effects oppose each other in terms of how they influence n aT Io n a l P l a n nIn g f o R C lI M aTe potential soil moisture, however, and so it is less clear C h a n g e : n aPa a nD o T h eR s T RaTe g Ie s what the combined effects will be. Except in the south, the median estimates are for slight increases in soil To understand the policy and institutional landscape moisture, while in all cases the range of estimates from in Mozambique related to climate change vulnerabil- the ensemble of seven models indicates that the direc- ity and adaptation, it is essential to pay attention to tion of change could go either way. What will this mean the degree of activity that is driven by external funders for drought risk? It is difficult to say, because drought and donors on the one hand, and Mozambique's risk depends not just on average rainfall and soil mois- participation in the United Nations Framework ture, but also on the frequency with which there are Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and severe negative deviations. A secondary analysis of the commitments to achieve the Millennium d E V E l o p m E n t A n d c l i m At E c h A n g E d i s c U s s i o n pA p E R s 9 fIguRes 5a­5D. PRojeCTIons MaDe bY The IngC sTuDY Source: asante et al.( 2009). note: each chart shows projected monthly changes from the baseline period (1960­2000) until 2050 (green) and 2100 (blue). The shaded region represents the range captured by an ensemble of the seven climate models, while the solid line represents the median estimate of those models. figure 5a shows projections for rainfall, in terms of mm per day. figure 5b shows changes in maximum temperature, in terms of °C. figure 5c shows changes in potential evapotranspiration, in terms of mm per day, and derived from temperature estimates and land cover data. figure 5d shows the potential moisture index (indication soil water availability) derived from the other three estimates. Development Goals (MDGs) on the other. In this reductions is the country's adoption of the MDGs and section, we provide an overview of the activities that UNFCCC. In September 2000, Mozambique was one of have been carried out to date. 189 countries to formally adopt the MDGs. As part of its commitment to cut absolute poverty in half by 2015 One of the main drivers of planning activities in (MDG 1), the government committed to developing a Mozambique in the area of climate vulnerability strategy for attainment, known generally as the Poverty 10 t h E s o c i A l d i m E n s i o n s o f A d A p tAt i o n t o c l i m At E c h A n g E i n m o z A m B i q U E coordinated the preparation of PARPA material, which fIguRe 6. Changes In flooD RIsk occurred across numerous government ministries and agencies and received assistance from a long list of national, international, and nongovernmental donors. IMF and IDA commented on the PARPA, noting that it advanced planning on poverty in Mozambique signifi- cantly, and yet left room for improvement in the area of vulnerability, and approved it as a satisfactory prerequisite for continued IMF and IDA support (IMF and IDA 2001). A similar approval process occurred for PARPA II, noting that it represented a significant improvement over the original PARPA (IMF and Republic of Mozambique 2007). Related documents suggest that the implementation of activities under the PARPA is progressing, but the extent to which this is taking place is unclear. Mozambique ratified the UNFCCC in 1995, and as part of this committed to preparing National Communications, led by the Ministry for the Coordination of Environmental Affairs (MICOA), the UNFCCC focal point for the government of Mozambique. The first national communication was completed in 2003 (MICOA 2003), but due to a protracted period of governmental approval, submitted Source: asante et al. 2009. only in 2006. The initial national communication note: Three different global climate models were used, and their results fed contains required information on greenhouse gas emis- into a statistical flood model. The wettest of the climate models was the IPsl sions, mitigation options, climate change vulnerability, model, and this resulted in estimates of increased flood risks in most of the river basins in Mozambique. The driest of the models, gfDl, indicated a and adaptation options. Under the UNFCCC, least decrease in the frequency of flooding events across most river basins. The developed countries (LDCs) receive financial assistance median model, eChaM, indicated a mix, with many areas experiencing a from the Global Environment Facility (GEF) to prepare slight increase in risk levels, and some experiencing a slight decrease. National Adaptation Programs of Action (NAPAs). MICOA began this process in 2003, at the time it completed its initial national communication. It completed work on the NAPA in 2007 and submitted it Reduction Strategy Papers (PRSPs) and in Mozambique to the UNFCCC in 2008 (República de Moçambique by the Portuguese equivalent of PARPA. Preparation and 2007). Once the NAPA has been submitted to the approval of PRSPs on an ongoing basis is a precondition UNFCCC, the country becomes eligible to draw from for continued support from the International Monetary the LDC fund, also managed by the GEF, to implement Fund (IMF) and the International Development the planned activities. It is unclear whether any steps Association (IDA), the branch of the World Bank have been taken toward implementation of the NAPA. responsible for helping the world's poorest countries; the two organizations are involved in funding and approving The NAPA represents the main area of planning for the PARPA and monitoring its implementation. The climate adaptation within the country (República de government completed the first PARPA in 2001 Moçambique 2007). Its conclusions are entirely consistent (República de Moçambique 2001­2005) and the second, with a view of Mozambique's adaptation needs being PARPA II, in 2006 (República de Moçambique 2006­ driven be the three hazards of drought, flood, and cyclone. 2009). The Ministry of Planning and Finance (MPF) The four strategic options listed in the NAPA were: d E V E l o p m E n t A n d c l i m At E c h A n g E d i s c U s s i o n pA p E R s 11 · Strengthening the early warning system for floods, these planning activities of INGC, there have been a droughts, and tropical cyclones; number of initiatives carried out by other agencies and · Strengthening the capacities of agricultural produc- ministries. These include contingency plans as a result ers to cope with climate change; of seasonal climate forecasts issued at the Southern · Reduction of climate change impacts in coastal African Regional Climate Outlook Forum (Muianga zones; and 2007; Lucio et al. 2007); mapping activities such as the · Management of water resources under climate Limpopo Atlas completed by CENACARTA with change. assistance from FEWS-NET; and others. There has also been nationally driven planning. In 1999, o V eRV I e w o f s o C I a l V u l n eRa b IlI T Y the government adopted the National Disaster I n M o z aM bI q u e Management Policy. This creates a set of priorities and objectives, including better coordination between disas- There have been a large number of place-based studies ter planning and other government objectives, such as looking at social vulnerability in Mozambique, employ- economic development. The policy established the ing both bottom-up and top-down strategies. National Institute for Disaster Management (INGC) and the Coordination Council for Disaster bottom-up Research studies. Management (CCGC). INGC is an independent legal entity, originally located within the Ministry of Foreign Reporting on work conducted by the German Agency Affairs but since 2005 in the Ministry of State for Technical Cooperation (GTZ), Ferguson (2005) Administration. Its general competencies are to coordi- analyzed the natural disaster risk in the Búzi District in nate disaster management planning, information, and Sofala Province. In collaboration with the Catholic activities; to deal with donors in the area of disaster University of Mozambique, a participatory methodol- mitigation, planning, or management; and to increase ogy was used to identify the population at risk from the flow of information, both with neighboring coun- different disaster types. The analysis suggested that tries and with the Mozambique public, related to disas- different types of natural hazards threatened the safety ter management. It has offices in each of the provinces, and livelihoods of approximately one-third of the popu- with the exception of the Maputo City Province. The lation. The study found that human activities--agricul- CCGC is a council made up of representatives from a ture and deforestation--had degraded the study area's number of ministries, and with one representative from natural resources (forest and savannah). Ferguson INGC. In addition to making sure that all necessary argued that the population is particularly vulnerable due ministries are involved in disaster management and to a combination of factors, some related to the location recovery efforts, the CCGC is charged with the of the area and its topography, and others related to the approval of regularly updated disaster management culture and socioeconomic conditions, and that it is this plans. The first of these was completed in 1999, but a vulnerability that turns a hazard into a disaster. second one has not yet been developed. A more complete picture of the institutional history and frame- Table 2 summarizes the factors leading to an increased work for disaster planning and management can be hazard on the one hand and the vulnerability of the found in a report developed and funded by the United population on the other. The study chronicled adapta- Nations Human Settlements Program, UNEP, and the tion measures that had reduced vulnerability: the GEF (Muianga 2007). construction of new settlements on higher ground and away from the river; the rebuilding of damaged infra- To a large extent, the 2009 INGC study already structure with due account of the need for being more mentioned (Asante et al. 2009) represents the most resistant to cyclones; and the improvement of disaster extensive nationally driven assessment of climate change preparedness through simulation exercises that practiced hazards in Mozambique and can serve as the basis for the implementation of early warning systems. As more additional planning. That study did not contain work on frequent extreme climate events can be expected in the developing policy guidelines, however. In addition to future, and considering the fact that relatively little can 12 t h E s o c i A l d i m E n s i o n s o f A d A p tAt i o n t o c l i m At E c h A n g E i n m o z A m B i q U E be done to reduce the hazard, vulnerability reduction is mitigating floods. Indeed, for small floods that are of utmost importance to minimize casualties and mate- absorbed by the dams, the preparedness of socioeco- rial losses. In this regard, Ferguson saw an important nomic systems might decrease and thus be hit even role for the government to play at different levels, and harder in the case of a major flood, since large floods argued that disaster risk management should be an inte- can exceed by far the storage capacity of the reservoirs. gral part of rural development strategies. Nevertheless, Carmo Vaz argued for including flood control in the planning, design, and construction stages Carmo Vaz (2000) reviewed the major flood episodes of all new dams. that occurred in Mozambique since independence in 1975 in the Maputo, Umbeluzi, Incomati, Limpopo, As part of a more general inquiry into adaptation to Save, Buzi, Pungoé, and Zambezi river basins, and climate extreme events, Mirza (2003) reviewed the causes analyzed the measures taken to mitigate floods in of high vulnerability in Mozambique and characterized Mozambique. The author classified mitigation strategies extreme weather events in two categories: (1) primary into two categories: structural and non-structural. climatic events such as floods, droughts, tropical cyclones, Structural flood mitigation measures included dams, heat waves, or cold waves, as well as coastal storms and levees, flooding areas, and river training, whereas non- storm-generated surges; and (2) secondary events such as structural measures comprised flood zoning, flood malnutrition or under-nutrition and hunger, outbreaks of management, flood warning systems, emergency plans, diseases or epidemics, rural and urban water shortages, raising awareness, and insurance. In regard to dams, the crop plantation failure or harvest failure, and landslides, review noted that dams with sufficient storage capacity mudflows, and saline water intrusion. can play a significant role in attenuating floods. While all major reservoirs in Mozambique incorporate a flood The author highlighted nine dimensions and areas for reserve in their operating, Carmo Vaz underlined the potential improvement. First, socioeconomic conditions potential perverse effect of dams as a means of were judged important factors to vulnerability. Forty Table 2. RIsk anD VulneRabIlITY faCToRs aCCoRDIng To naTuRal DIsasTeRs In The búzI DIsTRICT Hazard Vulnerability Flood · high precipitations (either in district or upstream) · low level of education · high tide can temporarily obstruct the flow of the Rio · proximity of towns to the river Búzi to the sea · Absence of high elevation point for escape · most people cannot swim and do not have enough boats · non-availability of warning system Cyclones and · cyclones develop over the indian ocean or the (same as above) tropical storms mozambique channel when the water temperature is · traditional houses are not designed and built to resist warm; wind speeds can reach up to 300km/h, and cyclones are usually accompanied by heavy rain (which could simultaneously cause flooding) · threat especially for settlements close to coast Drought · climatic variation in mozambique can lead to one or · population living on subsistence agriculture; changes more years of precipitation below average in climatic conditions exert significant impacts on · influence of El niño-southern oscillations, which socioeconomic systems cause high temperature and low precipitation in · incapacity of storing supplies as seed for the following Eastern Africa, while la niña causes heavy rains and year in case of insufficient yields floods · Alternative sources of food, such as fishing, small · intrusion of saline seawater into the groundwater and livestock, honey, do not allow for substitution the soils during high tide when the water level of the · Almost no irrigation system is in place (comité de Búzi River is low conselheiros 2003), neither traditional nor modern Source: ferguson (2005). d E V E l o p m E n t A n d c l i m At E c h A n g E d i s c U s s i o n pA p E R s 13 percent of the population live under the abject poverty climate adaptation; the other groups simply listed addi- line (less than $1 per day), and another 40 percent live on tional barriers to implementation. less than $2 per day. Second, Mozambique's debt repay- ment is drawing substantial financial resources from the Second, the researchers conducted a survey asking national budget, which could otherwise be allocated policy makers and farmers to indicate the risk levels toward promoting development. Third, most of the water from climate-related and non-climate-related events. In causing devastating floods actually originates from general, policy makers saw the climate-related events as abroad. Fourth, the primary objective of water dams is most risky, while the farmers saw the non-climate- electricity generation, while a multipurpose management related events as riskier. For example, there are different also would consider flood prevention. Fifth, design crite- perceptions between farmers and policy makers as to ria for embankment construction typically consider 5­10 which risks are presently becoming more severe. This in year flood return periods, rather than floods of higher turn could explain why some adaptation measures, such magnitude and greater return periods. Sixth, rural areas as resettlement into villages outside of the floodplain are generally more affected by flooding than urban areas could thus be viewed as unattractive because they could because they are more dependent on agriculture. Seventh, worsen the non-climate risks (crime, for example). communication was poor during past natural disasters, thus preventing quick and effective humanitarian inter- Finally, the researchers conducted a household survey, ventions. Eighth, although Mozambique had a rapidly again in two villages in the Limpopo floodplain, in which growing economy, living conditions for the majority of they explored people's perception of climate change and the population had not significantly improved due to the causes for the changes they observed. They found marked inequality in the distribution of resources. Ninth, that while most people had observed changes, they did human and material resources proved to be inadequate to not attribute the changes to issues of pollution coming deal with the major flood in 2000. from outside their community or country. Rather, those surveyed believed that they had caused some of the Patt and Schröter (2008) conducted a study funded by changes by ignoring traditional practices. The researchers the World Bank on perceptions of changing vulnerabil- suggested that this could lead to an unwillingness to ity and risk levels. They analyzed three separate sets of engage in adaptive behavior, since adaptive behavior data. First, they held workshops with farmers and local would represent yet another departure from tradition and leaders in villages that had suffered from the Limpopo hence result in even more unwanted changes. River flood of 2000, and with national level policy makers in Maputo. What they observed in the two sets Eriksen et al. (2008) conducted a comparative analysis of of discussions was an apparent mismatch in concern three bottom-up vulnerability assessments in over the primary risks: Farmers seemed less worried Mozambique and South Africa. The results are interest- about the risks from future flooding events than they ing both for the findings of the underlying assessments were about how the shortcomings in the previous recov- and for the added analysis comparing them. First, a ery efforts remained apparent, while policy makers number of agencies throughout southern Africa--includ- seemed unconcerned with the potential unintended ing the Southern African Development Community consequences of their adaptation strategies. For exam- (SADC), the UK Department for International ple, in the policy-makers' workshop, the researchers Development (DFID), and the Famine Early Warning divided participants into a number of working groups System Network (FEWS-NET)--formed vulnerability and asked each to identify several adaptation strategies, assessment committees (VACs) for Mozambique, the barriers to successful implementation of those strat- Malawi, and several other SADC countries. The objec- egies, and the potential negative consequences of those tive was to develop a coordinated system to monitor strategies were they to be fully implemented. All of the ongoing food insecurity, allowing for cross-national groups were able to come up with the first and second comparisons and the prioritization of relief aid. The lists. However, it was only the working group that assessments started in 2002 with the proposition that contained the least expertise on climate adaptation that droughts were the primary trigger for food insecurity, was actually able to envision negative consequences of which implied that rainfall and crop monitoring were the 14 t h E s o c i A l d i m E n s i o n s o f A d A p tAt i o n t o c l i m At E c h A n g E i n m o z A m B i q U E most important activities to engage in as part of a food give rise to vulnerability: not just the drought or flood insecurity monitoring effort. Later, the VACs came to that is the triggering event for food insecurity or a loss the conclusion that indeed there were multiple triggering of life, but the more fundamental patterns of develop- factors for food insecurity, and hence it was essential to ment that exacerbate or mediate the effects of these risk monitor a wider variety of indicators and take response factors on human suffering. Put into Intergovernmental measures that consider not just immediate hunger, but Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) language, this is also the patterns of development that were the precursors saying that assessments need to consider not just expo- to food insecurity. sure, but also sensitivity. The specific factors that make people more sensitive are isolation from markets, a lack The second assessment considered was the Economic of information and education, and a lack of basic infra- Impacts of Climate Change vulnerability assessment, structure. Second, it is essential to consider vulnerability led by the World Bank in cooperation with the as it operates at the household and community levels, Norwegian climate research institute CICERO, the taking into account household- and community-level University of Oslo, Rutgers University, and the knowledge and infrastructure. This is another way of University Eduardo Mondlane. A key focus of this focusing on the need to assess adaptive capacity, viewing assessment was on the potential interaction between the household and community as the initial repositories climate change and economic development. The assess- of this capacity. Policy interventions need to build on, ment found that climate change tended to have the rather than act against or interfere with, this capacity. greatest negative effects precisely on those communities and households that lacked integration into markets studies using the household food economy and hence were failing to participate in economic approach growth. One explanation for this could be that market integration allows households to be more flexible in In Mozambique, the process of assessing household their livelihood strategies, and hence more adaptive to food economies has been undertaken by the Famine climate change impacts. The policy implication from Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS.NET), first in this study was that greater attention to economic inte- 2002, and then again more recently since 2008. The gration could be an important means of reducing the 2002 assessment resulted first in a breakdown of the vulnerability to climate change. country into 39 food economy zones. Essentially, these were regions with a similar economic context within The third assessment, on disaster risk management, was which people operated, and thus a homogenous set of led by the German Agency for Technical Cooperation threats to that economic context (FEWS-NET 2002b). (GTZ), in cooperation with the Mozambique Red For each zone, the report provides details on the admin- Cross (CVM) and the Catholic University of istrative boundaries and the populations of men and Mozambique (Ferguson 2005). This assessment focused women within those boundaries. It then describes the on the Búzi River basin in central Mozambique and main sources of food, the main sources of income, and looked closely at conditions on the ground. The the main risks. It does not describe wealth levels or researchers engaged in two activities: First, they engaged household food economies within each zone. in mapping to identify the need for specific infrastruc- ture that would mitigate the effects of droughts and The 2002 assessment also resulted in two detailed food floods; second, they identified household- and commu- economy baseline profiles for the Alto Limpopo zone nity-level coping mechanisms and infrastructure. A (FEWS-NET 2002a), and for the coastal Nampula and major implication of their study is that policy interven- Southern Cabo Delgado zone (FEWS-NET 2002c). tions need to build upon local knowledge and local These provide more detailed information on actual practice, rather than interfere with it. household food economies within each zone and were meant as a proof of concept for putting the five-step In comparing the results of these three assessments, methodology concept to use within an operational Eriksen et al. (2008) reached two main conclusions. agency. In 2008, FEWS.NET resumed work on this, First, it is essential to consider the multiple factors that based on an updated set of assessment guidelines (FEG d E V E l o p m E n t A n d c l i m At E c h A n g E d i s c U s s i o n pA p E R s 15 Consulting and Save the Children 2008), and has so far prepared an additional set of five detailed livelihood fIguRe 7. esTIMaTes of ChangIng RIsk profiles (FEWS-NET 2008a, 2008b, 2008c, 2008d, leVels beTween 2000 anD 2060 2008e). These profiles provide a richly detailed set of information on the zones that have been covered so far. 250 Connected with the work in 2008, FEWS-NET also A Persons affected, per thousand annually prepared in cooperation with the United States Agency 200 for International Development (USAID) office for Mozambique a set of four briefing papers, in which 150 they analyzed the impacts of the global food crisis on rural Mozambican households (USAID Mozambique 100 2008), assessing the vulnerability of the poor, the link between household food economies and vulnerability to 50 natural disasters, and the utility of the HEA approach for development. These reports are rather brief, and 0 provide an overview of the factors that relate entitle- B 6 Persons affected, per thousand annually ment, food security, and vulnerability. 5 Top-down approaches 4 3 Finally, Patt and Nussbaumer (2009) conducted a study of social vulnerability as part of the larger INGC study 2 on disaster risk (Asante et al. 2009). The authors exam- ined the combined effects of both climatic drivers of 1 vulnerability and socioeconomic drivers. To pull the two 0 together, they conducted a cross-sectional study of 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 losses resulting from climate-related disasters across the Disaster frequency estimates based on observed trend, 1970­2007 globe and built a statistical model that relied on both No Development A2 B1 climate variables and socioeconomic drivers, particularly Disaster frequency estimated ranges based on GCM projections the Human Development Index. This part of the study No Development A2 B1 was similar to what had been done previously in the context of several global studies (Brooks et al. 2005; Source: Patt and nussbaumer (2009). Brooks et al. 2004; UNDP 2004; and Yohe and Tol note: figure 7a shows estimates for the change in the risk of being affected by a climate-related hazard, while figure 7b shows the change in the risk of 2002). They then assembled projections for both sets of being killed by a climate-related hazard. The figures contain three socioeco- variables--the climate ones from the team members in nomic scenarios and two climate scenarios. the INGC study, and the socioeconomic ones from IPCC and UNDP scenarios that had been assembled-- in order to reach conclusions about likely changes over time. Their results suggested that the socioeconomic drivers could play an important role in driving vulnera- The shaded regions, by contrast, derive climate projec- bility. Figure 7 shows their projections for vulnerability. tions from the INGC modeling results. For both, the black lines and shaded regions correspond to a socio- As the figure caption indicates, the upper figure shows economic scenario with no changes from the present, the risk of being affected by a climate-related hazard, such as in income or fertility; the blue lines and shaded while the lower figure shows the risk of being killed. regions correspond to the IPCC A2 scenario; and the The three solid lines in each figure show estimates red lines and regions correspond to the IPCC B1 obtained using a linear extrapolation of past disaster scenario. The A2 scenario generally suggests less frequency trends as the climatic driver in the future. economic growth in Mozambique, and less change in 16 t h E s o c i A l d i m E n s i o n s o f A d A p tAt i o n t o c l i m At E c h A n g E i n m o z A m B i q U E other development factors such as life expectancy and Taking the bottom-up and top-down studies together, it fertility. It does, however, project higher urbanization is clear that social and socioeconomic factors do play a rates. The B1 scenario projects greater improvements large role in determining vulnerability to climate change in human development and lower rates of now, and will in the future. The bottom-up studies urbanization. suggest that factors such as people's perceptions and attributions of the underlying risk, and the information What can one learn from this study? First, there is a lot that they have at their disposal to respond to changes in of uncertainty about future vulnerability that is risk levels, could influence their adaptive capacity. The accounted for by uncertainty about future climate studies also suggest that socially and economically trends. The linear extrapolation of observed disaster marginalized groups will have a more difficult time trends leads to much higher estimates of risk levels than coping with and adapting to climate variability and do the climate models. Which is right? Given the diffi- change and will therefore experience higher vulnerabil- culty of modeling extreme event risks, it is hard to say. ity. The top-down study shows that a rising economic Second, the effects of the faster improvement in human tide could raise the overall ship of Mozambique, making development associated with the B1 scenario are also it more resilient and less vulnerable to climate change. quite large. Indeed, human development projections However, this study says nothing about how the socio- from the B1 scenario could lead to falling risk levels by economic changes will reach the most vulnerable the middle of the century. communities within the country. 17 3. ReseaRCh MeThoDologY stakeholders, to identify the most vulnerable groups and appropriate adaptation pathways. · Fieldwork in vulnerability hotspots to validate the ReseaRC h sTRaT egY anD ques T I o n s results from the PSD workshops. The fieldwork was to consist of three methods: (1) a set of institu- Both the guiding questions and the research strategy for tional interviews with representatives from key this study were, to a large extent, set in advance in the organizations; (2) a set of focus group discussions World Bank's original scoping materials for all country with people from different socioeconomic strata; studies. The questions were to identify the special and (3) a set of household surveys, with a sampling concerns faced by the most vulnerable populations in method to capture variance in the anticipated driv- Mozambique and to identify adaptation strategies and ers of social vulnerability. pathways that would best respond to those concerns. At a project meeting held in Accra in June 2009, this was The first of these steps was carried out quickly by the further refined to identify the extent to which the prior- lead consultant, with the results reported in the incep- ities set forth in existing adaptation plans­such as tion report. The inception report also proposed a set of NAPA­would differ if one were to give special consid- sociogeographic zones. Following this, the local eration to the needs of the most vulnerable communi- consultant suggested refinements to these zones, and ties. To a large extent, this would require identifying engaged in GIS-based analysis to identify hotspots how the concerns of the most vulnerable differ from within these zones. Work then slowed, as bureaucratic those of the population in general. complexities made the process of releasing funds for the PSD workshops and fieldwork difficult. Eventually, To address these questions, the research strategy the team held three PSD workshops in July and included four key steps: August, with technical assistance from IISD and ESSA technologies. Fieldwork commenced in August, · A review of primary and secondary literature, sup- and was finished in mid-September. The initial plemented by stakeholder interviews, to identify processing of data yielded field notes by the end of both existing knowledge about social vulnerability September. These required translation into English, in Mozambique and current and planned efforts to which took place by mid-October. Quantitative data reduce that vulnerability. was available in a form suitable for analysis by · A review of climate impact studies, including map- mid-November. ping, to identify key hotspots of social vulnerability and a set of sociogeographic zones. s I Te se l eC T Io n a n D s aM P lIn g · A series of participatory scenario development (PSD) workshops, with the last one held in the In the inception report, the lead consultant proposed a national capital and involving national-level set of six zones. These are: 18 t h E s o c i A l d i m E n s i o n s o f A d A p tAt i o n t o c l i m At E c h A n g E i n m o z A m B i q U E · Coastal urban areas, most importantly Maputo and in terms of poverty rates and food security. The Beira. This zone is marked by highly differential highly productive regions in Zambézia stand out for vulnerability across income groups, with large peri- their high population density and relatively low urban areas vulnerable to flooding from both rivers vulnerability. and the ocean. · The non-urban coastal strip. This zone is marked Further discussions among the entire project team by high vulnerability to coastal flooding and storm agreed on these zones. The local consultant then surges from tropical cyclones, as well as threats of engaged in two processes. First, he delineated them erosion. It is relatively food secure, with low rates of precisely, in terms of particular districts covered within poverty. each. Second, and more importantly, he identified · The districts containing the Limpopo River valley districts within each zone that constituted risk hotspots. upstream of Xai Xai. This zone is unique in being To do so, he first engaged in mapping the different exposed to two very different threats at a high level: levels of risk, for each of the major classes of risk, and river flooding and drought. It has a relatively high overlaying areas of high population on these. Figure 8 population density, and hence high numbers of shows the result of this. It was agreed to combine this impoverished people. There has been extensive analysis with the maps of the zones, in order to identify studying of this region, and so it is possible to one or two districts within each zone that represented access a great deal of baseline data. hotspots for that zone. Within each of these districts, · The other river valleys, in particular in the Buzi the fieldwork would take place at multiple administrative and Zambezi river valleys, which are highly suscep- posts, in order to capture potential variation within the tible to flood risk and to flooding caused by tropical district. cyclones, but are less susceptible to droughts. The Buzi River region has also been extensively studied, Budgetary factors and time constraints, ultimately, as part of German-funded activities, and so there is limited the number of districts considered in the field no shortage of baseline data. study. Figure 9 shows the locations of these sites. · The drought-prone inland areas, in particular in the south. These areas are highly susceptible to In terms of the PSD workshops, it had been originally drought--indeed years of adequate rainfall to sup- planned to hold one regional workshop, and one port agriculture are the exception, rather than the national workshop, back to back. During discussions in rule--while the people are often dependent on June in Accra, the project team decided instead to hold remittances for survival. Population densities in three regional workshops, one each in the northern, these regions are low. central, and southern regions of the country, followed by · The inland areas of higher agricultural productivity, a national workshop in Maputo. Time constraints led to including the highly productive and populated areas a scaling back; ultimately the team held regional work- in Zambézia. These areas are perhaps the least vul- shops in Xai Xai and Beira, inviting stakeholders from nerable in Mozambique, facing adequate rainfall both the central and northern regions of the country to most years and no extreme risks from flooding or the Beira workshop. A national-level workshop in tropical cyclones. They are somewhat heterogeneous Maputo followed. d E V E l o p m E n t A n d c l i m At E c h A n g E d i s c U s s i o n pA p E R s 19 fIguRe 8. soCIal VulneRabIlITY hoTsPoTs Source: authors. note: The district map identifies areas where risks from drought, flood, and cyclone are considered to be high or very high. 20 t h E s o c i A l d i m E n s i o n s o f A d A p tAt i o n t o c l i m At E c h A n g E i n m o z A m B i q U E fIguRe 9. fInal fIelDwoRk sITes 21 4. PaRTICIPaToRY sCenaRIo would break out according to their sectoral or liveli- hood group expertise or interest, and indeed the identi- DeVeloPMenT woRkshoP ResulTs fication of relevant sectors or livelihood groups could be an outcome in and of itself of the workshop. Second, P s D w oR kshoP s: DesIgn oVe RV I e w the consultants decided that for Mozambique it would be useful to have more than one local-stakeholder-level The team organized three PSD workshops. The origi- workshop, for two reasons. Holding a series of work- nal intention was to conduct two one-day PSD work- shops in different regions of the country could reduce shops in each country. One of these would focus on travel distances for workshop participants. Also, differ- involving local-level stakeholders, while the other ent regions of the country have different climate, devel- would focus on involving national-level stakeholders. opment, and adaptation concerns, and it would be To assist in the development of these workshops, the useful to address these in separate workshops. World Bank issued a contract to a consortium of two Originally the plan was to have three such workshops, Canadian partners--ESSA Technologies and the but due to organizational constraints the number International Institute for Sustainable Development changed to two. The third conclusion was that the (IISD)--to develop a workshop program, prepare visual workshops would be over two days, rather than one. materials for the workshops, and in selected countries This would give more time for in-depth discussion. (so-called Tier 1 countries), attend and help to facili- Fourth, ESSA and IISD would provide assistance to tate the workshops themselves. In the first of the the Mozambique team, as with the Tier 1 countries, African Tier 1 countries to hold a workshop-- attending at least the first workshop. Given language Ghana--the consultants from Mozambique and abilities, the consultants Raul Varela and Isilda Ethiopia also attended, in order to observe the work- Nhantumbo would jointly facilitate both workshops in shop in operation, so as to be able to repeat its key Portuguese, with additional assistance from students aspects. This Ghana workshop--involving national- recruited from the University of Eduardo Mondlane in level stakeholders--took place in June 2009. Maputo. The consultants attending the Ghana workshop were There were, however, several important differences in not entirely satisfied. Meeting the day after the work- the designs of the three workshops. The first two shop, they reached several new conclusions. First, it was workshops--in Xai Xai and Beira--each followed an essential to place more emphasis within the workshops eight-step procedure, while the national workshop in on different stakeholder groups in order to stimulate Maputo followed a seven-step approach. These appear more in-depth thinking about development and climate in Figure 10. The two procedures differed in several concerns. At the Ghana workshop, participants had respects. Most importantly, the eight-step approach broken out according to their geographical expertise. It was built much more around the idea of imagining a was decided that for future PSD workshops, they future vision for the country, and people's lives in that 22 t h E s o c i A l d i m E n s i o n s o f A d A p tAt i o n t o c l i m At E c h A n g E i n m o z A m B i q U E future. After having done this, participants identified was to stimulate a different type of thinking, one ways that climate change could interfere with that focused on practical solutions that people working vision, and then thought of the appropriate adaptations together along existing jurisdictional lines could address. that could lessen this interference. The seven-step A critical question was whether changing the framing approach, by contrast, was built much more around of the unit of analysis for adaptation--from activities in considering specific climate impacts, and identifying the Xai Xai workshop to geographic regions in the appropriate adaptation pathways to lessen those Beira workshop--led to differences in substantive impacts. Roughly speaking, the eight-step approach outcomes. reflects a development-oriented view of adaptation (making the development pathway more robust to o V eRV I e w o f R e s u lTs f Ro M lo Ca l a nD climate change), whereas the seven-step approach naT Io n a l w o Rk s h oP s reflected a climate-oriented view of adaptation (reduce the negative consequences associated with a range of The two local workshops were especially interesting, potential climate impacts). because unlike many other workshops they focused participants' attention first on development, and only The second main difference was in the manner in then on the potential threats that climate would impose which breakout groups were defined, and here the major on that development. This was especially the case in the difference was between the Beira workshop and the Xai Xai workshops, where each of the breakout groups other two. In all workshops, participants identified early considered how development would proceed for a on where they were from, and where their geographical particular sector of society. The result was somewhat area of greatest expertise lay (Figure 11). In Xai Xai and less the case in the Beira workshop, where the separa- Maputo, participants then divided into breakout groups tion into provincial breakout groups did not allow for along the lines of different economic activities or discussion to be as specific on different societal sectors, groups. These were agriculture and ranching, agrofor- and instead the discussion was more general in terms of estry, fishing, and commerce. In the Maputo workshop, improved quality of life for all people. the agriculture and ranching participants in turn divided into two groups, one concerned with subsistence activity xai xai key Insights and the other with commercial activity. In the Beira workshop, the breakout groups divided according to From the Xai Xai workshop, the most interesting obser- geographic location, with a separate group for each of vation is that in very few cases did the development the provinces represented at the workshop. challenges that people listed have much to do with climate change. The main exception was for agriculture. These different approaches led to very different units of In the fishing livelihood group in Xai Xai, for example, analysis. In the activity-oriented approach, discussion there were challenges related to low fish catches, to the focused on the constraints and opportunities people face difficulty of selling what they had caught, and to the while earning their livelihoods in particular ways, with lack of a future for the children in these communities the recognition that climate change threatens some due to poor education. All of the 2050 vision points activities more than others. The participants discussed revolved around these issues. In the agroforestry group, governance issues at a more general level, with some- the challenges for commercial actors related to poor what less attention to how different provinces would infrastructure and access to credit, while for informal necessarily implement different types of policies, or on actors they related to poor forest management practices the combinations of policies needed to address the and ecosystem changes. In one case weather was listed needs of different economic groups. In the geography- as a challenge--the fact that charcoal producers need oriented approach, discussion focused more on the port- dry weather to work--but this is an issue more of insuf- folios of activities present within each province, and the ficient ability to invest in building infrastructure for need for policies at the provincial and district levels to their operations. They were not saying that in deal with the impacts of climate across multiple Mozambique it rains too often, simply that rain pres- economic activities. The important justification for this ents a challenge. d E V E l o p m E n t A n d c l i m At E c h A n g E d i s c U s s i o n pA p E R s 23 fIguRe 10. sTePs In RegIonal anD naTIonal woRkshoPs 1 8 Introductions; Reflect on the context setting; day overview 7 of day 2 Reporting back Review the from groups and current situation discussions Engagement and participation 6 Revise vision 3 of the future & Develop a vision timeline to include of the future adaptations 5 4 and timeline Review, identify Challenge the & evaluate vision with boundary adaptation / conditions: Climate Coping options and socio- economic Note: The top figure shows the eight steps in each of the two regional workshops, while the figure on the bottom shows the seven steps taken in the national workshop. 24 t h E s o c i A l d i m E n s i o n s o f A d A p tAt i o n t o c l i m At E c h A n g E i n m o z A m B i q U E reducing exposure or sensitivity to natural hazards. Only fIguRe 11. MaPPIng of geogRaPhICal in the agriculture and ranching group did climate oRIgIn anD exPeRTIse factors play an important role as a barrier to develop- ment. This group listed drought and floods as two of the three most important barriers. For this group, about half of the adaptations listed had something to do with reducing vulnerability to droughts and floods, while the rest related to issues of general poverty alleviation and greater access to markets. beira key Insights To test the effects of changing the workshop format, the project team divided participants into geographi- cally identified groups. Each of the provinces identified a set of development targets, in terms of life expectancy, per capita income, fertility, population, education, and the size of the economically active workforce. They then listed the factors that would allow these targets to be realized, with similar ideas and suggestions across provinces. They then identified the potential climate impacts and the negative effects each could have in the province. There were some differences across provinces. First, Tete Province is in the driest part of Mozambique, where local communities have more limited livelihood strategies. Second, Nampula is a region normally hit by very strong hurricanes. Third, from Beira to Rovuma River, a long coastline of communities depend on fishing, using poor fishing Note: These are the locations identified by participants in the xai xai work- methods, and thus are potentially more vulnerable to shop and show the effort to obtain stakeholders from a wide geographical sea level rise and changes in storm intensity. Fourth, the range. breakout groups, however, followed sectoral expertise. central and northern regions have large forest areas, potentially susceptible to the combination of strong winds and drought, leading to highly damaging fires such as those that devastated Manica and Sofala in Again, the 2050 visions were consistent with reducing 2008. Fifth, there is large-scale contract farming for these challenges. In the trade and commerce group, cotton (for example, in Nampula) and tobacco (for again the challenges were related to poor infrastructure example, Tete); this may mean that those communities (such as roads, water, and electric grid), poor institutions engaged in such activities may have more income, and and governance (such as lack of education, especially for hence greater adaptive capacity. It may also mean that girls; poor spatial planning; poorly developed markets; volatile price markets, especially for cotton, can weaken and inadequate access to credit), and generalized effects their capacity to cope. of poverty (such as a low standard of living, poor health, and high unemployment). This group did identify one However, no group focused on the specific relation- climate-related challenge: the incidence of natural ship between the factors leading to development hazards. The visions for 2050 were again consistent targets and the climate impacts, and so it is hard to with addressing these challenges, although it is note- see whether they identified linkages or lack of link- worthy that the vision did not contain anything about ages. Likewise, each of the groups listed adaptations d E V E l o p m E n t A n d c l i m At E c h A n g E d i s c U s s i o n pA p E R s 25 appropriate for different climate impacts, and these Table 3 lists these pathways for each of the five break- options are consistent with those appearing in the out groups. NAPAs and the literature more generally, with near complete agreement across provinces as to the types of These suggested pathways are similar to the results adaptations they see as important. What one can learn from Xai Xai, in that very few of the adaptation strate- from these results, however, is that the adaptation gies have much to do with climate change and much needs that people identified were quite homogenous more to do with development in general. The major across the country. It was not the case that each prov- exception is for agriculture, both subsistence and ince needs its own unique ways of adaptation to each commercial. This also finds its way into the longer term climate hazard. vision for the commercial sector, i.e., enhancing the sustainability of trade in agricultural products. In terms of workshop design, one conclusion to draw is that the geographic groupings may have been useful for synthesis developing discussions among a group of colleagues who could then later implement their collective ideas Across the workshops, the more interesting results were together (since they worked in the same province). in Xai Xai and Maputo, where participants focused their However, it was a less successful strategy for eliciting attention on particular economic and livelihood activi- detailed information about challenges associated with ties. Here, the common finding was that outside of agri- different livelihood activities, but to a large extent culture, climate change does not present many clearly common across provinces. identifiable threats to the improvement in people's liveli- hoods. Attention within these sectors has to concentrate Maputo key Insights on improving existing management practices, from efforts to avoid overfishing and overharvesting of forests, The Maputo workshop devoted less time to identifying to the continued development of a healthy commercial ways in which climate may affect particular sectors-- sector that can provide people with reliable sources of indeed suggestions, collated from the regional work- income. Within the agricultural sector, the threats from shops, were handed to participants on note cards--and increased prevalence of both floods (in the fertile flood- more attention to developing pathways of adaptation, plains) and droughts (everywhere else) require a response something not done in the two regional workshops. that must take the form of both hard and soft measures. Table 3. aDaPTaTIon PaThwaYs IDenTIfIeD In The MaPuTo woRkshoP 2009­2015 2015­2030 2030­2050 Forestry wildfire management and Alternative incoln! generating Reforestation, forest management and changes in standards activities (environmental) education particularly in forest concession areas (commercial forestry) Trade Rehabilitation of rural post-harvest processing; construction of infrastructure with can withstand commerce and trade networks; building silos; improved family/ climate disasters especially related to trade in simplification of licensing community storage facilities agriculture procedures for small and medium enterprises Fisheries improved fishing nets & Building infrastructure for Education for skills development influence in improved fish management to processing and conservation of behavior and attitude to enforce seasonal promote sustainable use of to fish (increase yield and fishing restrictions; use improved fishing nets resources increase quality of product) subsistence conservation agriculture water harvesting techniques (ie. Education so that people can learn to live with agriculture including planting crops water storage tanh for drought resistant to drought consumption and irrigation) Commercial construction of dykes for construction of flood gates and Reforestation so the areas destroyed by forest agriculture water retention (small scale) dams in areas vulnerable harvesting to floods and wildfires are reduced 26 t h E s o c i A l d i m E n s i o n s o f A d A p tAt i o n t o c l i m At E c h A n g E i n m o z A m B i q U E aD a PTaTI on oPTI ons: keY s eCTo Ra l management practices, or of some combination of the The Mes two. Without resolving this question, almost all groups suggested approaches to improving forest management In all three workshops, participants identified the same and forest access for commercial uses. Many of the four basic activity sectors--agriculture, forestry, fishing, participants suggested greater empowerment of local and commerce--as crucial for a consideration of adap- community groups, both in the design of management tation pathways. In the Beira workshop these were all policies and in their enforcement, such as through considered, even if discussion took place in geographi- community-based natural resource management. cally defined groups. Here are results from each of the four sectors, across the three workshops. fishing agriculture and Ranching People were worried about the direction that fisheries were heading, but there was very little consensus on the Table 4 presents the specific results from each of the extent to which climate change was a driver of this three workshops. problem, except for the fact that increases in cyclone strength could threaten fishing fleets in the absence of Across the workshops, the theme emerged that the agri- adequate early warning. In the Xai Xai workshop, culture and ranching sectors would be the hardest hit by participants suggested that the impact of climate change climate change. Potential increases in the likelihood and on fisheries would be indirect, by threatening agricul- magnitude of drought, flooding, cyclones, and coastal tural production and in turn leading to a greater reliance flooding and intrusion would lead to reduced yields and on fish as a food source and source of income. greater insecurity. The adaptation options that people identified were a combination of infrastructure projects, Trade and Commerce the improved use of drought-resistant crops, and options that would allow people to diversify their There was a concern that climate change could nega- incomes and self-insure. tively affect trade and commerce through several differ- ent pathways. One pathway was in terms of losses in agroforestry agricultural productivity; since agricultural commodities are the main thing traded, this would have a direct Across the workshops, deforestation emerged as a negative effect, both on supply of commodities from the repeated problem. It was unclear in many people's rural areas into trade networks, and in terms of loss in minds the extent to which this would be a direct conse- purchasing power by rural people. Another pathway was quence of climate change, or simply of poor forest in terms of a loss of infrastructure from extreme events, Table 4. woRkshoP ResulTs Key impacts from climate change Consequences for development Adaptation options xai xai droughts, floods, loss of production, loss of soil construction of water retention and flood protection cyclones, and sea fertility and increased salinity, infrastructure; construction of barns for animals, silos for grain level rise destruction of infrastructure, storage, and food processing facilities to give greater market increased mortality access. Beira drought, flood, malnutrition, loss of yields, loss of drought-resistant crops, water conservation, income cyclone possessions in low-lying areas diversification through improved market access, resettlement maputo drought, Reduced crop yields, poverty, crop diversification, rainwater conservations, expanded desertification, loss disease, malnutrition, food irrigation, improved social services and health care, livelihood of soil fertility insecurity, loss of grazing land, loss diversification, micro-finance for value added activities and of forest land market access d E V E l o p m E n t A n d c l i m At E c h A n g E d i s c U s s i o n pA p E R s 27 Table 5. sPeCIfIC ResulTs anD suggesTIons fRoM The woRkshoPs Key impacts from climate change Consequences for development Adaptation options xai xai drought, flood, cyclone, and sea changes in forest ecosystems, Reforestation, road construction, community level rise destruction of forest access resource conservation, early warning systems ways, loss of coastal vegetation Beira drought, flood, cyclone wildfires, deforestation community forest management, increased consumption of wild fruits, reforestation maputo wildfires, loss of vegetation, loss food insecurity, reduced forestry improved forest management including better of soil fertility yields, destruction of housing enforcement of existing laws, community-based reforestation, improved control of wildfires, establishment of fire breaks, infrastructure to protect housing from fire Table 6. keY fInDIngs In The fIshIng seCToR Key impacts from climate change Consequences for development Adaptation options xai xai drought, flood, cyclones, and seal loss of agriculture leading to higher Adaptive agriculture, reforestation, early level rise pressure on fisheries, reduction in warning, introduction of new fish species, catches, loss of fluvial fisheries aquaculture. Beira drought, flood, cyclone none identified moving artisanal fishing areas to those more suitable, community risk management, early warning maputo changes in fish availability overexploitation and extinction of some improvements to fishing nets, storage, species, reduced catches and attendant and processing facilities; education and income, food insecurity skill training; livelihood diversification away from fishing; improved early warning Table 7. keY fInDIngs foR The TRaDe anD CoMMeRCe seCToRs Key impacts from climate change Consequences for development Adaptation options xai xai drought, flood, cyclones, and wild fires, loss of agricultural Reforestation, adaptive agricultural practices, sea level rise productivity, destruction of more resilient infrastructure, improved coastal infrastructure, displacement of erosion control people, loss of land for economic development Beira drought, flood, cyclone loss of infrastructure Building stronger infrastructure, improving transportation, food processing and storage, and market places, improved social assistance, improved finance for small businesses maputo Reduced and more variable market price fluctuations and construction of grain and fish storage agricultural production, loss of commodity scarcity, degradation of facilities, price monitoring, micro-insurance, infrastructure, coastal flooding transportation networks improved roadways, flood protection barriers and erosion, cyclones 28 t h E s o c i A l d i m E n s i o n s o f A d A p tAt i o n t o c l i m At E c h A n g E i n m o z A m B i q U E both buildings in town and roadways. In addition to vulnerable" status, for each of the four livelihood activi- addressing these causes directly, participants suggested ties. Figure 12 shows these identified areas, and in that better access to credit and information would stim- general they seemed to match up with the overlap of ulate a diversification and general development of the high hazard level and the particular activity. For agricul- sector, thus making it more resilient. ture, it corresponded most closely to areas prone to drought but where people nevertheless farm. In the case I Den TI fIC aTIon of MosT VulneR a b l e of fishing, it appeared to be the result of thinking about gR ouP s where inland fishing is taking place and resources are under threat from overfishing. Coastal fishing also was One of the important goals of the workshops was to seen as a hazardous activity, especially as artisanal fish- identify the people and places that could be most ers increasingly go out farther from shore to find stocks. vulnerable to the effects of climate change. The results, In the case of trade and commerce, it appeared that in general, were unsurprising as to both. people were most likely to consider not the main cities, but rather smaller commercial centers that are marginal, In terms of vulnerable places, these seemed simply to and could be threatened in their existence by increasing mirror where climate-relevant activities took place and rural poverty or decreasing crop yields. the hazards were high. In the Xai Xai workshop, for example, the participants identified areas within the In the Beira workshop, participants split into working southern region of "most vulnerable" and "second most groups according to provinces, and so there was not the opportunity to identify those places that were most vulnerable across the whole region. However, participants identified the vulnerable groups within their provinces. These included (a) fishermen vulnerable to hurricanes fIguRe 12. VulneRable RegIons and possible sea level rise; (b) the farming communities IDenTIfIeD In The xaI xaI woRkshoP using fire for land clearing and the communities near the forests, both of whom were considered vulnerable to wild and manmade fires as propagation may become easier during lengthy drought periods; and (c) pastoralists in Tete, where the ranching of small ruminants such as goats is a very important enterprise and the exacerbation of drought conditions has the potential to reduce pasture availability and worsen erosion. In Maputo, participants again engaged in mapping--as in Xai Xai--with very similar results. Figure 13 shows the results for two sectors--fishing and forestry--and in both cases (as well as other sectors) the identified regions of high vulnerability were where risk levels are high and large numbers of employed people are employed. Across sectors at the Maputo workshop, the participants identified the following areas as most vulnerable: · Coastal Nampula and southern Cabo Delgado, including the cities Nampula and Pemba. This would appear to be driven by fears of sea level rise and increases in cyclone strength and frequency. d E V E l o p m E n t A n d c l i m At E c h A n g E d i s c U s s i o n pA p E R s 29 fIguRe 13. RegIons IDenTIfIeD as MosT VulneRable In The MaPuTo woRkshoP Note: The left-hand picture shows results for the fisheries sector, while the right-hand figure shows results for the forestry sector. · Northern Sofala and southern Zambezia. This In all workshops, participants suggested that members would appear to be driven by fears about increased of each of the above groups were most vulnerable when risk of flooding. engaged in dry-land farming as their main livelihood · Both inland and coastal areas of Gaza. This would activity. They suggested that existing social support appear to be driven by fears of increased risk of mechanisms, such as social security offered by the drought. government, are inadequate to ensure the members of these groups with adequate livelihood security. Participants also identified groups of people they considered to be the most vulnerable. All workshops R e l aT I Ve P R eVa l e nC e o f "h a R D" considered this question and arrived at similar answers: V eR s u s "so f T" a Da P TaT Io n o P T Io ns Generally, the most vulnerable were those people with- out the resources to withstand livelihood shocks, with- One workshop result that stood out was that people out the capacity to adapt, and without social support saw both hard and soft adaptation options as impor- networks. Specifically, they included (a) children, in tant. Within each category, people also saw a mix of particular orphans; (b) women, in particular women options that would be centrally planned and delivered who head households; (c) the elderly; and (d) those by the government or NGO community, and those that with physical or mental handicaps. would be operationalized at the household or 30 t h E s o c i A l d i m E n s i o n s o f A d A p tAt i o n t o c l i m At E c h A n g E i n m o z A m B i q U E community level. Another axis where adaptation which they were engaged, and the sector in which their options differed was in terms of whether they directly experience lay. The workshops did not record results at addressed a particular climate risk, or would primarily the individual level, however, and all group work act by increasing adaptive capacity. In the following contained stakeholders with a variety of backgrounds. table, the latter appear in italics. Hence, it is not possible to identify whether there were significant differences in views as to adaptation options One interesting result was that when participants had to across different classes or groups of stakeholders. identify which options would directly benefit the most vulnerable communities, they were much more likely to C o n gR u e nC e wI T h n aT Io n a l P l a n s , identify soft centralized options, and in particular those I n C l uD In g n aPa s that addressed underlying problems of adaptive capacity. These included better credit, better information, and One intention of the PSD workshops was to find out improved health care and social services and support. whether an approach to adaptation planning that explic- This is unsurprising, since what separates the most itly considered (a) the needs of most vulnerable commu- vulnerable from the others is their lack of access to nities, and (b) the potential for climate impacts these things. Specifically, the Maputo workshops listed interfering with development visions, would differ the following adaptation options as most directly bene- substantially from previous adaptation planning exercises, fiting the most vulnerable: such as the NAPA. The main conclusion that one can reach is that there are very few differences in outcomes · Improved rural trade, with fewer barriers to entry, between the NAPA process and the PSD process. and technical assistance programs for vulnerable groups The NAPAs identified four priority areas for national · Improved agriculture practices, including more use planning and policy development. These were: of wild resources such as fruits, apiculture, and non- timber forest products, and better mapping of agro- · Strengthening the early warning system for floods, ecological zones droughts, and tropical cyclones. This would benefit the · Education for capacity improvement, combined safety of people engaged in all areas of economic with better micro-credit. activity threatened by disasters. It would also have significant economic implications for the agricul- Participants at the workshops covered a wide range of tural sector--the activities of which are directly experience, both in terms of the level of activity in affected by flooding and droughts--and the Table 8. keY aDaPTaTIon oPTIons fRoM PsD woRkshoPs Centralized Distributed hard · flood control dikes and levies · farm-scale water storage facilities · coastal flood control gates · more robust buildings · dams and irrigation channels · Grain storage facilities · Improved roadways · Improved food processing equipment · Improved communication infrastructure soft · improved early warning of hazards · Better utilization of drought-resistant crops · Better planning and management of forest, fish, and other · Use of highland areas for living and lowland areas for natural resources farming · Resettlement of populations to lower risk zones · Better household and community management and use of · More credit and financial services for small businesses and natural resources rural development · practice of soil conservation agriculture · Better education and information for the rural areas · Diversification of livelihoods away from agriculture · Improved health care, social services, and social support · Better planning of how much grain to save for personal for the poor consumption, and how much to sell for income generation Note: The items appearing in plain text directly respond to anticipated climate hazards, while those in italics respond to the need for improved adaptive capacity. d E V E l o p m E n t A n d c l i m At E c h A n g E d i s c U s s i o n pA p E R s 31 fisheries sector, given the exposure of its infrastruc- infrastructure and knowledge, to those that allow ture to tropical cyclones and the need to bring fish- farmers to broaden their livelihoods by engaging in ing fleets into safety. commercial activities. Third, the workshops did · Strengthening the capacities of agricultural producers to identify the threats to infrastructure in the coastal cope with climate change. This attention to capacity zone, including roads, fishing boats, and buildings. includes both hard and soft adaptation measures, Fourth, the PSD workshops identified early warn- and also addressed the general state of development. ing system improvements as a key cross-cutting Putting in place flood control and irrigation infra- adaptation. Fifth, the workshops identified the bet- structure would clearly improve people's capacities. ter management of water, such as through the prac- So would improving their knowledge about how to tice of conservation agriculture, as an important use early warning systems to mitigate losses from adaptation option. floods and droughts. Improving capacities could · The PSD workshops identified the options previ- also, however, mean developing other income-gen- ously noted in the NAPAs as the most important erating activities for people now engaged solely in elements of adaptation pathways that directly agriculture, as these would better enable people to addressed climate concerns. In the Beira workshop, withstand climatic hazards. participants focused most closely on the different · Reduction of climate change impacts in coastal zones. climate impacts and how to adapt to each of them. This would likely involve a great deal of infrastruc- All of the options they identified as most important ture to protect urban areas and transportation match one of the NAPA priority areas. routes, and thus would have the greatest impact, from a social perspective, on commerce and indus- In one respect, however, the PSD workshops--especially try. It would also involve a wider range of measures the one in Xai Xai--reached an implicit conclusion beneficial to both fishing and coastal agricultural different from that of the NAPA process. The conclu- communities. sion was that, except within agriculture, development · Management of water resources under climate change. goals in general were not threatened very much by This would likely have the largest impact on the climate change, and that far more important are those agricultural sector, which relies on a continuous development initiatives that make sense independent of supply of rainfall or irrigation during the growing climate change. This conclusion can be reached when season and is most vulnerable to flooding. It would starting by considering development visions within also have an impact on energy production, and thus different economic sectors, moving on to considering the indirectly on commerce, as well as on public health threats to those visions, and finally considering how through improved sanitation. climate change may contribute to these threats. In the NAPA process, by contrast, the question was somewhat Other national plans have contained similar or identical different: what can be done to adapt to those climate priorities for adaptation and development. The congru- impacts that could pose a threat to development. This is ence between these plans and the results of the PSD the same question that guided the Maputo PSD work- workshops can be seen in two respects: shop. When considering this question, the Maputo PSD came up with answers similar to the NAPA process. · The PSD process independently identified all of the adaptation priorities previously noted in the P o lI C Y P R eC o n D I T Io n s a nD NAPAs. First, the PSD workshops identified that, I n sT I Tu T Io n a l ba s e among sectors, agriculture is the most vulnerable, both because of its high climate exposure and In all workshops, some of the most important adapta- because of the social vulnerability of the people tion options represented improvements in existing practicing it. Second, within the agricultural sector, government programs and practices. For example, many it identified that a range of measures is required, participants suggested that the forestry sector did not from those that address climate impacts such as necessarily need new laws to promote more sustainable flooding and drought directly with new forest management, but rather more effective and fair 32 t h E s o c i A l d i m E n s i o n s o f A d A p tAt i o n t o c l i m At E c h A n g E i n m o z A m B i q U E enforcement of existing laws. Statements such as these change vulnerability and adaptation in Mozambique, thus suggest a necessary improvement in the ability of paying particular attention to the issues facing the most the government to act effectively--what many might vulnerable in society while taking a development-first consider a precondition. perspective. The main result from the workshops is to validate previous findings. These are: The Maputo workshop was the only one to address directly the issue of preconditions. Participants identi- · The most vulnerable in society are people lacking fied the following list of options: the capacity to cope with climate shocks or adapt to changes, and without strong social and family sup- · Improving the competence of government port networks. These include orphans, female- · Combating corruption headed households, the elderly, and people with · Improving vocational training physical or mental handicaps. · Creating a more attractive policy for investment in · Adaptation options need to address both the spe- Mozambique cific risks associated with climate change-- · Mainstreaming climate issues into sectoral policies. droughts, floods, and cyclones--with a portfolio of hard and soft options, as well as with the underly- Does this list make sense? Certainly, having a competent ing capacity of people to adapt and their resilience government free of corruption does make sense and is in the face of extreme events. consistent with the messages from the other two work- · In the case of the most vulnerable people, their shops. Vocational training and improving the investment most urgent need is for assistance that will improve climate are also, perhaps, the two most important ways their resilience and adaptive capacity, such as educa- of improving adaptive capacity. Whether one considers tion, social support, and programs that allow them improvement in adaptive capacity to be an adaptation in to diversify their livelihood strategies. its own right, or a precondition for adaptation, is a · Agriculture is the area of economic activity in subject of much lively academic debate. These partici- which the future development is most threatened by pants, at least, though the latter. The final item on the climate change impacts. It is essential both to list, mainstreaming, simply represents a particular develop specific infrastructure and soft adaptations approach to adaptation governance. Many would see this to protect agricultural producers from extreme as the best way to begin to address climate concerns weather and climate events, and to enable them to across a wide range of sectors, where climate is not the diversify their activities into other income-generat- main problem on policy-makers' list of concerns. ing activities. Con C lusI ons f RoM T he woR ksh o P None of these findings contradicts the main findings T Ra C k either of past adaptation assessment or planning exer- cises, such as the NAPA, or the findings of the The workshop track was an extremely useful means of Mozambique sectoral findings in the EACC study. generating intense discussion on the issues of climate 33 6. fIelDwoRk ResulTs local government and NGOs operating in the district. · Identify the main climate risks in the district. The primary purpose of the fieldwork in Mozambique These included droughts, floods, cyclones, and in was to validate the results from the PSD workshops, in some cases wildfires and coastal erosion. two respects. First, we were interested in the question of Participants identified past events that had been differential vulnerability: who were the most vulnerable particularly severe. and what were the effects of climate change on them · Describe the overall sensitivity of the community to relative to everyone else. Second, we were interested in these risks, identifying the groups within the com- the coping and adaptation options identified. Would munity most vulnerable to these risks. there be regional variation in the options identified? · Identify options to mitigate and adapt to these risks. The participants went through the list of risks To address these tasks, the team gathered data using in their district, and suggested adaptation options three methods. The first was a set of institutional inter- for each. They divided these into institutional views: speaking with particularly knowledgeable people options (what their own organization could do) and in the community, or people with decision-making options for the community (what the community as responsibility. The second was a set of focus-group a whole could benefit from). discussions: speaking with groups of people representing · Identify the main constraints preventing the imple- communities covering a range of vulnerability. The third mentation of these options. In this case, every inter- was a household survey: interviewing households in view identified financial constraints as the single each community, again representing a range of vulnera- most important factor. Most also identified the lack bility profiles, to find out their individual perspectives. of knowledge, information, and skills as an addi- The three activities took place in each of the districts tional constraint. where fieldwork was conducted, as shown in Figure 9. In some districts, however, there was not the opportu- Overall, the results from each of these interviews were nity to conduct institutional interviews. not surprising. The hazards and risks that people identi- fied were in all cases consistent with the results from ResulT s f Ro M InsTITu TIonal risk mapping, using national-level data. People were In T e RVI ews thus well-informed about the risks faced by their community. In general, the results from the other ques- All of the institutional interviews followed a common tions were also consistent across interviews, with people format. The steps in this format were: listing exactly those adaptation options for each of the risks that had been identified in the PSD workshops. · Describe the participants in the interview session. Beyond this, there were several other interesting find- There were usually several participants from the ings from the interviews. Table 9 lists each of them, 34 t h E s o c i A l d i m E n s i o n s o f A d A p tAt i o n t o c l i m At E c h A n g E i n m o z A m B i q U E noting the people identified as most vulnerable, and decision makers in each community, but rather with interesting lessons--with respect to risks, sensitivity, or people representing a particular social group with adaptation options--that stood out from their other medium to high vulnerability. The format that they answers. followed was: It is clear that the people identified as most vulnerable · Social and demographic characteristics of the group. are the same, by and large, as those identified in the Discussions started with those in attendance, and PSD workshops. Unfortunately, the institutional inter- then moved to the members of the same social views did not shed any particular light on the nature of group in the wider community. vulnerability among these groups. · Social differentiation. Participants described the role of the group in the overall structure of the ResulT s f Ro M foC us gR ouP community. DI s Cuss I ons · Natural disasters. Discussion then moved on to the major disasters in the region. People described the The focus group discussions had the same intention: to disasters, when they had occurred with what conse- identify particularly vulnerable social groups, and to quences, and why they believed they happened. brainstorm about potential adaptation options. Unlike · Climate hazards and vulnerability. Discussion moved the institutional interviews, they were held not with key from natural disasters in general to focus on climate Table 9. InTeResTIng lessons fRoM The foCus gRouP InTeRVIews Location Participants Especially vulnerable Interesting lessons Angoche 1 ngo and subsistence farmers, single · hazards result from witchcraft government mothers, children, elderly · need to protect forest areas and trees to protect against drought and storm surges · need to avoid living right at the coast chibabava 5 ngos none listed · need to build water storage dams chokwe 3 ngos Elderly, children, widows, · should live on high ground for floods, farm on low ground for droughts pregnant · stay away from the dams, where flooding is more common · stock surpluses to prepare for drought, sell them in times of drought gondola government not listed · there is no disaster planning inhambane government orphans, elderly, physically · trying to resettle people on higher ground handicapped, chronically · need better infrastructure sick · need better access roads mabote 4 ngos, Elderly, widows, children, · need to conserve soil better government pregnant women manhiça six ngos Elderly and orphans · need more early warning, more diversification of income · people attribute disasters to ancestors massingir 4 ngos Elderly, children, · need to stock surpluses and sell them handicapped, single · floods happen when dam sluice gates open, and can be forecast women, widows · need to diversify income · need to build irrigation systems matutuine government not listed · need dikes and small dams, and more information moatize government not listed · need better information mopeia 2 ngos not listed · Early warning · Better organization of farmers, for risk management committees and to distribute surpluses more effectively xai xai 2 ngos none listed · need to store surpluses · Build irrigation systems · stronger houses to protect against cyclones zavala 5 ngos widows, single mothers, · farm low-lying areas, live on high ground elderly, handicapped · need to build more solid houses because of cyclones d E V E l o p m E n t A n d c l i m At E c h A n g E d i s c U s s i o n pA p E R s 35 hazards and vulnerability. People described the fac- hazards? Third, to what extent did these answers vary tors that made them more or less vulnerable, and according to different stakeholder groups; that is, did the the reasons why these factors mattered. farmers give the same answers as the fishers and the · Adaptive and coping capacities. Participants described charcoal collectors? the steps that people have taken to adapt to and cope with climate hazards, and the factors that have These results are completely in line with those from helped or hindered them from doing so. In this sec- the PSD workshops, which in turn were in line with tion, participants identified some of the institutions past studies and assessment. The important finding, that have played a key role. however, is the general lack of variance in responses, · Long-term adaptation. From the discussion on adap- either geographically or across social groups. Also, the tive and coping capacity, participants then moved to respondents were quite clear that the most vulnerable discuss possible long-term adaptations. What are were that way because they lacked the capacity to work. they? Who could implement them? · Barriers to implementation. Participants described To supplement the results in Table 10, Annex 1 presents the factors that could stand in the way of imple- noteworthy comments and observations made in each menting the long-term adaptations they had of the groups. These begin to paint a picture of people's described. stories of vulnerability. Table 10 presents results from across all focus groups. It R e s u lTs fR o M ho u s e h o lD s uRVe Ys considers six themes, omitting only the characteristics of the particular groups. It presents answers to three ques- The final set of data collected during the fieldwork was tions. First, what were the most common answers and in the form of the household surveys. The three issues identified across all focus group discussions? enumerators interviewed 136 households across all of Second, to what extent did these answers vary according the districts where fieldwork was conducted. In each to geographical factors, such as exposure to particular district, the intention was to interview households Table 10. aggRegaTe ResulTs fRoM foCus gRouP DIsCussIons Most common responses Geographic heterogeneity Social heterogeneity Social in most communities subsistence farmers diversification of strategies none differentiation were listed as the major social group, with depended on location, and livelihood diversification into forestry and whether suitable for fishing or fishing forestry Natural disasters droughts were the main concern, followed participants listed hazards none by floods and cyclones according to their exposure, consistent with risk maps Climate hazards children, female-headed households, the none none and vulnerability elderly, and handicapped people are the most vulnerable, because of their limited ability to work Adaptive and in most cases people try to cope and adapt, in some regions there are social fishermen seemed most in coping capacities but have very little assistance and support support networks, such as need of cyclone early farming or fishing cooperatives; warning; farmers in flood these provide help plains needed warning of upstream dam releases Long-term people listed the same set of adaptation Areas heavily reliant on fishing subsistence farmers were adaptation options identified in psd workshops and forestry were more likely to most likely to mention income list better natural resource diversification management Barriers to All groups listed the inadequacy of finance none none implementation and technical support 36 t h E s o c i A l d i m E n s i o n s o f A d A p tAt i o n t o c l i m At E c h A n g E i n m o z A m B i q U E representing the range of anticipated vulnerability. In majority of households reported the stocks lasting this section, we first present the important raw data in between three and six months. Only about 10 percent graphical form. We then go on to analyze important reported their stocks lasting throughout the entire year. relationships. Annex 2 contains a copy of the survey The picture that emerges is of households that have instrument. many mouths to feed, and in general do not grow enough grain on their own to do so. Most households household size, Resource access, and self- keep the majority of their harvest for their own sufficiency consumption, and yet in only a few cases does that harvest last the entire year. The first way of describing the data is in terms of household size and the access to resources. Figure 14 shows the distribution of household sizes. The largest households had fifteen members, while the majority of households were between four and seven people, with fIguRe 15. PRoPoRTIon of fIelD sIzes In seven being the most frequent household size. hIgh anD lowlanD aReas 0.35 The next data are the household's access to farmland, and the sufficiency of the farmland to meet the house- 0.30 hold's needs. Figure 15 shows the distribution of field Proportion of Respondents 0.25 sizes in highland and lowland areas. Field sizes tend to 0.20 be somewhat smaller in lowland areas, where close to 50 percent of respondents had less than 1 ha of land to 0.15 farm. In highland areas, the majority of people had 0.10 between 1 ha and 5 ha of land to farm. Figure 16 shows the pattern of people bringing their harvest to market. 0.05 Almost all respondents kept at least 40 percent of their 0.00 harvest for household consumption. A quarter of 0 0.1­0.25 0.26­1.0 1.1­2.0 0.1­5.0 5.1­10.0 >10 respondents took 20 percent or less of their harvest to Highland fields Lowland fields market. Finally, Figure 17 shows how long the harvests Note: n = 136. kept for the household typically would last. The fIguRe 14. DIsTRIbuTIon of householD fIguRe 16. CuMulaTIVe DIsTRIbuTIon of sIzes CRoPs kePT foR householD ConsuMPTIon 0.20 1.00 Proportion of Respondents Proportion of Respondents 0.15 0.75 0.50 0.10 0.25 0.05 0.00 0 25 50 75 100 0.00 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 Note: n = 117. Note: n = 136. d E V E l o p m E n t A n d c l i m At E c h A n g E d i s c U s s i o n pA p E R s 37 fIguRe 17. nuMbeR of MonThs ThaT fIguRe 18. PRoPoRTIons affeCTeD bY householD gRaIn sToCks fRoM own ClIMaTIC hazaRDs anD ReCeIVIng eaRlY haRVesT lasT waRnIng of These 0.75 No Proportion of Respondents 0.50 No Yes 0.25 Yes 0.00 upto 3 3­6 6­9 9­12 12 or more Note: The left-hand circle represents the relative numbers of respondents Note: n = 117. saying they have been affected by a climatic hazard. The right-hand circle represents the numbers who have received early warning of those hazards. n = 117. experience with Climate hazards fIguRe 19. RankIng of hazaRDs bY The next data pertain to the climate hazards that people face. As Figure 18 shows, almost all respondents ResIDenTs reported being negatively affected by one or more 100% climate hazards. About half of them had received prior warnings about these, while half of them were caught 75% relatively unaware. Figure 19 suggests which hazards 50% they view as the most severe for them. Over three- quarters of respondents listed droughts as the most 25% important climate-related hazard they face, with smaller numbers listing floods and cyclones as the most 0% First Second Third severe. Half of the respondents list floods as either the Drought Flood Cyclone Fire Erosion most or second-most important hazard they face. A large number list fire and erosion--indirect climate Note: Proportion of respondents ranking particular hazards as the first, sec- impacts--as the third most important threat they face. ond, and third most important. n = 117 These results are consistent with what was learned during the PSD workshops, and indeed is common wisdom about Mozambique's vulnerability to climate change. · Lack of water in the wells (eight respondents) · Lack of rain (seven respondents) Respondents listed the ways they had been affected by · Being left exposed to the elements (six respondents) these hazards, and in an open-ended question listed the · Panic and suffering (five respondents) effects they were most concerned about. These were: · Death and physical damage (four respondents) · Forced relocation (one respondent) · Destruction and loss of property (56 respondents) · Limited fishing activity (one respondent) · Hunger and lack of food (20 respondents) · Low agricultural production (15 respondents) The next question on the survey asked respondents · Degraded condition of the fields (10 respondents) whether there was variation in the effects that different 38 t h E s o c i A l d i m E n s i o n s o f A d A p tAt i o n t o c l i m At E c h A n g E i n m o z A m B i q U E households in the community had suffered as a result of government authorities, 32 percent to the traditional climate hazards; 80 percent responded that there is vari- leaders and authorities, and 29 percent to other organi- ation. When asked to identify the factors influencing zations, including INGC and NGOs. such differences, their answers were: Past adaptation and Coping Practices · House construction, i.e., traditional versus conven- tional materials (44 respondents) The heart of the survey investigated households' adapta- · Income level of household (28 respondents) tion coping practices. Two open-ended questions asked · Being a member of an especially vulnerable group, respondents to list their primary coping strategies for a e.g., elderly, children, female- headed households, range of climatic hazards. Figure 20 shows the results, handicapped (11 respondents) in terms of the strategies identified most frequently to · Diversification into other economic activities (nine prepare for hazards and to cope with hazards during respondents) and after their occurrence. · Geographic factors, such as location of farm on highlands or lowlands (two respondents) To prepare for drought, about a quarter of the people did not identify any coping strategy they had imple- Respondents then were asked if their own household mented in advance. Since almost all respondents listed had suffered differently from most other households in drought as a major concern, this could simply indicate the community from climate hazards. Again, 80 percent that they did not see options available. Among strategies, of the respondents said yes, they had suffered differently the most common were planting crops in the wetter from other households in the community. In this case, (and sometimes irrigated) lowlands, planting shorter- the reasons most commonly listed were: season (i.e., more drought tolerant) crop varieties, and improving their buildings. The point about improving · Their own income level, compared to that of the their buildings does not make obvious sense, but could community (34 respondents) include the construction of granaries in order to store · Their prevention efforts against climate hazards (23 more surplus harvest. An additional ten different strate- respondents) gies were mentioned, but in each case by only one or · Their income diversification (eight respondents) two respondents: these constitute "other." These included · The quality of their roof (eight respondents) preparing for fires, hunting rats, engaging in more weed- · Being a member of a vulnerable group (five ing, and engaging in religious practices. During and after respondents) droughts, the three most common strategies were to plant any new crops in the wetter lowlands, to manage What can we learn from examining these two sets of forest resources carefully in order to obtain income from answers? The first is that two sets of factors are the those forests as a safety net, and to manage past surplus most important determinants of vulnerability: people's harvests and cash receipts carefully. The majority of level and diversity of income, and the extent to which respondents, however, suggested that they did nothing. they have prepared themselves for extreme weather, The "other" strategies again included a wide variety of such as through the quality of their houses. When view- measures, including spending more time in the shade. ing the matter in the abstract, people were more likely to list preparations as more important. When thinking A larger fraction of respondents do not prepare for about it in terms of their own personal experiences, they floods, likely because many of them do not face a flood were more likely to list income as the most important risk in their district. Of those who do prepare, the most factor. This could reflect an unwillingness to take common preparations were to plant in the highlands, to personal responsibility for having suffered more than fortify their houses, and to plant short-season varieties. other households because of the failure to take precau- Why short-season varieties? On the one hand, these tionary measures. In terms of whom they have gone to would be more appropriate for highland farming. On the for assistance after climate hazards, 39 percent of other hand, in the floodplain these would be more likely respondents indicated that they turned to the local to be harvested before the flood hits. During and after a d E V E l o p m E n t A n d c l i m At E c h A n g E d i s c U s s i o n pA p E R s 39 flood, most people listed nothing that they can do. The before the cyclone hits. Over three quarters of respon- only common strategy listed was to plant in the high- dents listed nothing to do during and immediately after lands, while a number of other strategies enlisted the a cyclone. The three most frequently listed strategies support of only one or two respondents. These included were to plant short-season crops in the highlands, and to building canoes and keeping belongings in safe places. gather wild fruits to make up for the lack of a harvest. The pattern of preparation for cyclones was very similar One important question is whether the propensity, or to that for floods, albeit with fewer additional strategies ability, to carry out these adaptation and coping strate- covered by the "other" category, and more people listing gies correlates with income or other resources. The final the planting of shorter season crop varieties, in order to section of the survey asked participants to list whether a improve the chances of gathering a rainy season harvest member of their household worked either for payment in cash or in kind (61 percent of respondents answered "yes") and whether the household had any monetary savings to pay for special emergencies (55 percent answered "yes"). We examined whether the answers to fIguRe 20. CoPIng MeChanIsMs befoRe, either of these two questions significantly correlated DuRIng, anD IMMeDIaTelY afTeR ClIMaTIC with the six sets of results presented in Figure 20. Using hazaRDs a X2 test, we found no significant correlations (p > 0.10 in all cases). In all cases, similar proportions of those Drought with and without employment income, or with and without savings, engaged in adaptations, and the adap- tations in which they engaged were similar. We repeated this analysis using not income or the pres- ence of cash reserves as an indicator of income or resources, but rather other factors. First, we looked at the productivity of the farm. Figure 17 indicated the Flood number of months that households' harvests lasted; we assumed that those households where the harvest lasted less than four months had low productivity, those where the harvest lasted between five and eight months medium productivity, and those lasting nine or more months high productivity. Again, using a X2 test, we found no significant correlations between this and the adaptation strategies that households reported making Cyxlone (p > 0.10 in all cases). Second we looked at the educa- tion level of the household head, coding them as being without schooling, having completed only some primary school, and having completed all of primary school or more. Again, there were no significant correlations. Third, we repeated the test based on household size as a measure of income: perhaps larger households would have more hands available to engage in the adaptations. In this case, we did find one marginally significant rela- Other Nothing Short season crops Farms in highlands/lowlands Improve Consume Manage forest Manage surplus tionship (p = 0.09), namely between household size and housing wIld fruit resources carefully carefully flood preparations. Households with more than seven members were twice as likely as smaller ones to engage in some sort of adaptation; at the same time, there was a 40 t h E s o c i A l d i m E n s i o n s o f A d A p tAt i o n t o c l i m At E c h A n g E i n m o z A m B i q U E difference in the favored adaptation strategies, among who should help? those who did adapt. Larger households were much less likely to move their farming operations to the high- Respondents gave their opinion on which organiza- lands, and much more likely to engage in all of the tions currently play the more important role in helping other adaptation strategies listed. Presumably, it is hard to mitigate natural disasters. Forty-six percent of to move a very big household. All other relationships respondents suggested that it was agencies of the were insignificant (p > 0.10 in all cases). national government, such as INGC or INAS, while 31 percent thought it was local government or tradi- Planned adaptation and strategies tional authorities, and 23 percent thought that it was an NGO, such as the Red Cross or World Vision. The survey asked people what, if anything, they would These organizations are providing assistance such as do if the climate hazards in their regions were to direct support (food, clothes, money), early warning, become significantly more severe. The most common and education. What do people need more of from answers were: these organizations? The most common response (from 39 percent of respondents) was more direct · Nothing (70 respondents) support, followed by early warning (13 percent of · Move to a safer or more productive area (23 respondents), awareness-raising (7 percent), and respondents) improved provision of basic services, such as schools, · Seek help from others (nine respondents) roads, and hospitals (5 percent). · Raise and sell animals (seven respondents) · Improve the durability of the house (six synthesis of quantitative findings from household respondents) survey · Practice drought-resistant cultivation (five respondents) The household survey offered results in most ways broadly consistent with the results from the PSD Other ideas, given by three or fewer respondents each, workshops, and from the institutional interviews and included seeking employment, hunting, and eating less. focus group discussions. People in general were worried These results suggest that most respondents do not have about the same climate-related hazards, viewing a clear picture of what they would do to adapt to droughts, floods, and cyclones as the most severe climate change, and of those who do, the most threats to their livelihoods, in that order. They were frequently listed option was migration. engaging in a variety of coping mechanisms, the same coping mechanisms identified earlier: cultivating When asked whether they felt that their household was shorter season varieties of crops, switching their culti- more or less able to engage in longer-term adaptations, vation between highlands and lowlands depending on compared to other households in the community, 48 the relative threat of flooding and drought, reinforcing percent thought they were more able, 27 percent thought their buildings, and managing their other resources they were equally able, and 25 percent thought they were more wisely. Very few, interestingly, listed working less able. This result--only 25 percent thinking they are more for money as a strategy they were engaging in, less able than average to adapt--is broadly consistent perhaps because there are so few such jobs. In all cases, with findings of overconfidence in the psychological liter- there seemed to be more options available to more ature, such as the fact that 90 percent of people think that people to prepare for a hazard ahead of time, rather they are above-average drivers. There was no significant than during or after. This would suggest the need for correlation between the belief of being more or less able improved early warning, something identified in the to adapt to climate change with any of the previously PSD workshop as important, and by the survey considered indicators of adaptive capacity: household size, respondents as something they would like more of. Of number of months the harvest would last, education of course what they really need and want is money, food, the household head, paid employment, or cash savings for and clothing; this is consistent with a lack of resources emergencies (p > 0.10 in all cases, X2 test). being the greatest obstacle to coping and adaptation. d E V E l o p m E n t A n d c l i m At E c h A n g E d i s c U s s i o n pA p E R s 41 What the survey did not show was a significant relation- s Yn Th e sI s o f f Ie lD w oR k R e s u lTs ship between the hypothesized--and in the literature, previously identified--determinants of adaptive capacity, Put together, the three sets of data from the fieldwork and people's propensity to have engaged in adaptation or validate the results from the PSD workshops, which coping options, or their perceived ability to engage in was their primary intention. There were a few addi- such options in the future. Only one relationship was tional new findings: marginally significant, between household size and coping measures, with larger households showing a · The institutional interviews and focus group discus- different pattern than smaller ones. But given 35 rela- sions both revealed very little regional heterogene- tionships investigated, chance alone could account for ity, and the focus group discussions revealed very one of these appearing to be significant at the 10 percent little heterogeneity according to social group. confidence level. It is certainly not a strong finding. The · The household surveys revealed no significant dif- lack of significance could be because the sample size was ferential vulnerability, on the basis of commonly too small, because the survey was not ideally designed or used indicators, such as household assets, education, poorly administered, or simply because differences in the or income. determinants of adaptive capacity within the communi- · The household surveys revealed a very low aware- ties surveyed simply do not matter very much. ness on the part of most people of how they would adapt to future climate change, should that bring Finally, the survey paints a fairly bleak picture of future with it an increase in the frequency or severity of adaptation at the household level. The majority of natural hazards. households do not have any idea of how they would adapt to more severe climate hazards, and one of the The last of these points is consistent with an important most common strategies identified by those who did conclusion from the PSD workshops, namely that there have an idea--asking others in the community for is an urgent need for awareness raising and education help--would probably not work very well given that about climate change, and options for adapting to everyone in the community would be suffering. The climate change, among subsistence farmers. most common strategy identified was migration. This is consistent with the literature on adaptation, and yet it is a highly disruptive act for any household. 42 7. sYnThesIs anD DIsCussIon sensitivity to how farmers can hedge their risks by farm- ing both highland and lowland fields, and the impor- tance of wild fruits as a natural resource in times of This section consists of three steps. First, we discuss the stress. main adaptation options gleaned from this research, comparing them with options that were suggested All of the options in the left-hand column, being before, such as in the NAPAs. In so doing, we address centralized, represent potential government interven- the first question: Does a development-first assessment tions. The right-hand column, by contrast, represents process result in different findings from a more tradi- measures that people can undertake on their own. The tional impacts approach? We also compare these literature on adaptation often characterizes such actions conclusions with the general conclusions from the as "autonomous" (Patt et al. in press and Aaheim et al. economic track of the EACC study. Second, we look at 2007), as if they took place on their own without any the issue of differential vulnerability. Who are the most particular agency. This may be a misnomer in a country vulnerable, why, and what interventions can best assist like Mozambique. First, there is a great deal of inten- them? Third, we evaluate some of the weaknesses and tionality behind any of these actions. Second, and more limitations in this study, and the extent to which our importantly, many of these represent actions that results on either of the first two questions may be sensi- people do not have the resources or skills to undertake tive to these weaknesses. Finally, we offer policy on their own. This is particularly the case with the hard recommendations. options: they take money. The people who have the money have already undertaken them, in particular aD a PTaTI on oPTI ons making their buildings more robust. But any of the soft options are also difficult without the right economic The PSD workshops generated a list of adaptation enabling environment. Many, for example, would like to options, described in Table 8. The fieldwork generated diversify their incomes, but there are simply no oppor- new results that in most cases left this list of options tunities to do so. Direct government intervention, in intact, but in some cases changed them. Table 11 pres- the form of rural economic development, may be ents the revised list. necessary. As with Table 8, the options in plain text respond None of these options are inconsistent with the NAPAs directly to climate hazards, while those in italics repre- and previous planning efforts. What they do accom- sent measures to increase the adaptive capacity of the plish, however, is to suggest a number of specific ways population, or to make them more resilient to shocks to of improving the capacities of farmers to cope with their livelihoods in general. Changes from Table 8 to increasingly adverse weather. They also highlight the Table 11 include the addition of wells for drinking fact that some of the most important adaptation options water, the construction of hospitals and schools, better are in fact those that commonly would be labeled d E V E l o p m E n t A n d c l i m At E c h A n g E d i s c U s s i o n pA p E R s 43 Table 11. keY aDaPTaTIon oPTIons fRoM fIelDwoRk Centralized Distributed hard · flood control dikes and levies · more robust buildings · coastal flood control gates · farm-scale water storage facilities · dams and irrigation channels · deep wells to provide drinking water for people and animals · Improved roadways · Grain storage facilities · Improved communication infrastructure · Improved food processing equipment · Improved hospitals and schools soft · improved early warning of climatic hazards, and of dam · Better utilization of short-season and drought-resistant crops releases to prepare for drought, floods, and cyclones · Better planning and management of forest, fish, and · diversification of flood and drought risk by maintaining fields in other natural resources both highland and lowland areas · Resettlement of populations to lower risk zones · Better household and community management and use of · More credit and financial services for small businesses natural resources, including wild fruits and rural development · practice of soil conservation agriculture · Better education and information for rural areas · migration to lower risk areas · Improved health care, social services, and social support · Diversification of livelihoods away from agriculture for all people · Better planning of how much grain to save for personal consumption, and how much to sell for income generation development, such as improved finance in rural areas · Careful, and limited, use of hard adaptation options. and the provision of social services. Hard adaptation options are an enticing way of pro- tecting against extreme events. The study found They are also consistent with the economic track results that often the costs of these options far exceeded of the EACC study. That part made several recommen- their benefits, in particular for coastal protection. dations for adaptation strategies: The social component arrived at remarkably consistent · Development. The main result of the economic findings. There were only three inconsistencies. First, the study was that the most important means of over- social component did not identify regional river basin coming the challenge of climate change was management as a key priority. This was mentioned in through the development of human capital (for one focus group discussion--farmers complained that example, education) and the growth of well-func- they were uninformed about upstream dam releases that tioning institutions. caused flooding for them--but was not highlighted in · Regional river basin management. Mozambique is a other areas. Second, the social component did not downstream country, and it needs to cooperate consider the costs of hard adaptation options, and so did more closely with upstream countries to ensure the not reach a conclusion that they are often inefficient. best use of runoff. Third, the social component highlighted the importance · Agriculture research and extension. Mozambique's of improving social safety nets. This potentially falls crop yields are due to decline given a continuation under the category of development institutions, but was of current practices, but could increase significantly not explicitly mentioned in the economic study. with better utilization of existing technologies, based on an evaluation of suitability. D I f f eRe nT I a l V u l n eRa b IlI T Y · Rural roads. Roads are necessary for rural develop- ment, and unpaved roads will be washed out more In all three PSD workshops, and in every institutional frequently by the expected increase in extreme pre- interview and focus group discussion, people identified cipitation events. the elderly, children, single women and female-headed · Zoning and land-use planning. Given the economic households, and the physically handicapped as being the growth that is projected for Mozambique, it is most vulnerable. This is because they lack the ability to important to plan carefully so that the growth work and thus to earn a sufficient income, the skills occurs in low-risk areas. necessary to engage in self-protective action, and the 44 t h E s o c i A l d i m E n s i o n s o f A d A p tAt i o n t o c l i m At E c h A n g E i n m o z A m B i q U E assets to withstand extreme weather events. What these First, there has been an insufficient review of the people need more than anything is an improved social current institutional context of adaptation research and safety net, so that they do not use their productive assets planning in Mozambique. While this report has simply to survive. Several interviewees mentioned that reviewed the NAPAs, it has omitted detailed descrip- the existing level of social support--approximately $4 tions of some other important programs under way. per month--is tragically low. SETSAN and FEWS.NET, for example, are engaged in a great deal of vulnerability and livelihood mapping, It also emerged that the agriculture sector is far more with the intention of using this information to reduce vulnerable than alternative livelihoods. Farmers lose their food insecurity in the face of increasing climate hazards. crops from droughts most of all, and then from floods Originally it had been envisioned to interview national- and cyclones. The effects of natural hazards on the agri- level stakeholders, and to analyze these programs in cultural sector then trickle through into the other liveli- greater depth. Given unforeseen delays in the study hood strategies. They place additional pressure on forests process, this did not take place. Since this review of the and fisheries to feed people when the crops fail, and they institutional context was not seen as a critical element slow down the flow of money and goods in trade. of this report--it describes features unique to Mozambique and is difficult to generalize to other Differential vulnerability failed to show up as expected in countries--resources were redirected to the more partic- the household survey. While many people in the survey ipatory areas of the project. As a result, this component claimed--as had the participants in the other activities-- of the report is underdeveloped. that those with fewer resources were unable to engage in self-protective behavior, there were no significant correla- Second, there were inconsistent approaches taken tions between the indicators of household assets and during the PSD workshops. These had a valid justifica- reported past self-protective behavior. It could be that the tion, namely to observe whether variance in the PSD sample size was too small, or the survey design inappro- workshop design led to a difference in substantive priate, or the sampling of households too narrow, to outcome. To a large extent these changes in format were capture a differential vulnerability effect. Or, it may the result of post-workshop team discussions, in order simply be that the effects of differential vulnerability are to "tweak" the workshop design for the next one. in fact small. It is worth mentioning that other studies However, the Xai Xai format--a longer workshop, with have also found that income or assets are not good discussions centered on activities and not geographical predictors of adaptive behavior, except when they lead to regions--generated the greatest depth of discussion. households acquiring additional information or skills Thus, some of the most interesting findings are from a (Phillips 2003; Pratt et al. 2005; Grothmann and single workshop, not well-corroborated by the other Reusswig 2006; and Grothmann and Patt 2005) workshops. Addressing differential vulnerability--if indeed it is a Third, the quality of some of the data is questionable. major problem--needs to be part of the development In the case of the PSD workshops, arguably the most agenda, simply because that agenda needs to focus on important single workshop was that held in Maputo, interventions that benefit the poorest of the poor. In with national-level stakeholders. In fact, challenges with fact, the last few years have witnessed this focus taking timing meant that very few high-level stakeholders hold among development agencies (Gupta et al. 2009). from the national government attended the Maputo Hard adaptation options will not achieve this, but social workshop. The majority of attendees were representa- development, including strong safety nets, will. tives of NGOs operating in Maputo, some of them with very limited knowledge of adaptation policies and prior- lIMITaTI ons of T he sTuDY ities. In the case of the institutional interviews and focus group discussions, the field notes that served as There are some important limitations to this study, as the basis of this report omitted a great deal of detail of well as lessons learned about how to--and not to-- the discussions. For example, the local consultant's field conduct a country case study such as this. report (Annex 3) suggests that participants engaged in d E V E l o p m E n t A n d c l i m At E c h A n g E d i s c U s s i o n pA p E R s 45 wealth-ranking exercises to identify the links between in urban areas or in South Africa. But diversifica- social groups and adaptive capacity. The field notes tion isn't easy: many people suggested that the stated that such wealth-ranking exercises took place, but recipients of micro-finance ended up using that did not provide information about the results. In the money just to buy food, because the opportunities case of the household survey, the sample size was too for small businesses succeeding were not very good. small to observe significant statistical relationships. This suggests that attention to integrating rural Adding to this, there were many apparent problems in areas into markets--including a great deal of atten- data collection and entry. This consultant simply tion to improving transportation and communica- dropped the unexplained answers from the statistical tion infrastructure--will be an important activity. analysis, but if the unexplained answers correlated with 2. Subsistence farmers and the economically and other variables, then this would have introduced bias socially marginalized are the worst off. Across all into the results. focus group discussions, institutional interviews, and workshops, participants identified subsistence Fourth, the depth of analysis of the field data is not as farmers--and among them the economically and great as it should be. Delays in the scheduling of the socially marginalized individuals--as the most workshops and the fieldwork led to very little time being vulnerable and having the fewest resources avail- available for the analysis of the data generated there. able to adapt. Economically and socially marginal- ized individuals include the elderly, orphans, How serious are these limitations? Not very; indeed, widows and female heads of households, and the there is good reason to believe the core findings of this physically handicapped. Most communities are study would be the same even if each of the problems lacking support networks for these people, either had been resolved. This is because they are so consistent formally through the government or informally with past assessments, and with other results within the through well-functioning social networks. The EACC study. This agreement provides reason to believe government assistance that the particularly needy that improvements in data and analysis would not likely receive is inadequate to help them make it through have led to qualitatively different findings. adverse weather events. Social safety nets need to be improved. Con C lusI ons 3. Policies and institutions should enforce sustainable resource management and wise land-use planning. Finally, it is useful to condense the many findings into a In many cases, participants in the discussions and core set of key conclusions. These are: workshops suggested that the harvesting of forest resources--such as wood for charcoal produc- 1. Rainfed agriculture takes the hardest direct hit from tion--as well as fishing were important income- climate hazards. Across the focus group discus- generating activities, which often helped to buffer sions, institutional interviews, and workshops, par- shocks to agricultural productivity. But these ticipants mentioned climate impacts affecting a activities are suffering due to deforestation and variety of livelihood activities, including agricul- overfishing. Better management is needed. This ture, fishing, forestry, and charcoal production. But can include the enforcement of existing laws and in all cases, the most frequent and severe impacts government policies, as well as improving the were listed for rain-fed agriculture because of capacity of community associations to manage droughts. The most frequently mentioned way of local resources effectively. Planning is also needed reducing these impacts was the construction of irri- to make sure that activities gradually move from gation systems. The most frequently listed barrier those areas of high risk to areas of lower risk. to this was the lack of finance. Likewise the least 4. Knowledge is needed across the board. Lack of vulnerable were those households that had man- knowledge is a problem in several respects. First, aged to diversify their income away from just agri- there appeared to be a great deal of confusion culture, such as through informal trade or the about the causes of natural disasters and whether receipt of remittances from family members living they would increase or decrease in the future. 46 t h E s o c i A l d i m E n s i o n s o f A d A p tAt i o n t o c l i m At E c h A n g E i n m o z A m B i q U E Education is needed so that people can expect dam operators upstream will be releasing water, so disasters to be a constant feature in the future. that they can prepare for the local flooding this Second, people need technical assistance concern- causes. Fourth, and most importantly, people need ing better land management, such as conservation more education in general, if they are to diversify agriculture. Third, people need access to real-time their livelihoods away from agriculture and toward weather forecasts--effective early warning--to high value-added activities that can enhance their mitigate their losses to floods and cyclones. In well-being and provide them the resources to some cases, they also need information about when withstand extreme weather. 47 RefeRenCes Carmo Vaz, A. 2000. "Coping with floods: the experi- ence of Mozambique." First WARFSA / WaterNet Symposium: Sustainable use of water resources. Maputo: Aaheim, A., et al. 2007. "Why we will need adaptation WARFSA/ WaterNet. and how can it be implemented." In ADAM / CEPS Policy Brief. Norwich, UK, and Brussels: ADAM Project Center for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters. and Center for European Policy Studies. 2008. The OFDA/CRED international disaster database. Université Catholique de Louvain. Available at: . change and extremes in coastal Vietnam." World Development. 27 (2): 249­269. Comité de Conselheiros. 2003. Agenda 2025: Visão e Estratégias da Nação. Comité de Conselheiros. Maputo: Asante, K., et al. 2009. Study on the impact of climate República de Moçambique. change on disaster risk in Mozambique: synthesis report. Maputo: National Institute for Disaster Management. Cutter, S. 2001. A Research Agenda for Vulnerability Science and Environmental Hazards. International Bengtsson, L., et al. 2007. How may tropical cyclones Human Dimensions Program Update 01 (2): 8­9. change in a warmer climate? Tellus, A. 59 (4): 539­561. Emanuel, K., R. Sundararajan, and J. Williams. 2008. Boko, M., et al. 2007. "Africa." in M.L. Parry et al., eds. "Hurricanes and global warming: results from down- Climate change 2007: Impacts, adaptation and vulnerabil- scaling IPCC AR4 simulations." Bulletin of the American ity. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Meteorological Society 89: 347­367. Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge UK: Cambridge Ehrhart, C., and M. Twena. 2006. "Climate Change and University Press. Poverty in Mozambique: Realities and response options for CARE." Background report. Geneva: CARE Brooks, N., and W. N. Adger. 2004. "Assessing and International. enhancing adaptive capacity." Adaptation Policy Framework. Geneva: United Nations Development Eriksen, S., et al. 2008. "Vulnerability assessments in the Program. developing world: Mozambique and South Africa." In A.G. Patt et al., eds. Assessing vulnerability to global Brooks, N., W. N. Adger, and P.M. Kelly. 2005. "The environmental change. London: Earthscan. determinants of vulnerability and adaptive capacity at the national level and the implications for adaptation." FEG Consulting and Save the Children. 2008. The Global Environmental Change 15 (2): 151­163. practitioner's guide to the household economy approach. 48 t h E s o c i A l d i m E n s i o n s o f A d A p tAt i o n t o c l i m At E c h A n g E i n m o z A m B i q U E Johannesburg: Regional Hunger and Vulnerability Gupta, J., et al. 2009. "Mainstreaming climate change in Program. development cooperation policy: conditions for success." In M. Hulme and H. Neufeldt, eds. Making climate Ferguson, J. 2005. Disaster risk management along the Rio change work for us. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge Búzi. Case study on the background, concept, and imple- University Press. mentation of disaster risk management in the context of the GTZ program for rural development (PRODER). International Monetary Fund and International Eschborn, Germany: German Agency for International Development Association. 2001. Joint staff assessment of Cooperation (GTZ). the poverty reduction strategy paper. Maputo: International Monetary Fund and International FEWS-NET. 2002a. Food economy baseline profile: Alto Development Association. Limpopo. Maputo: Famine Early Warning System Network. International Monetary Fund. 2007. Republic of Mozambique: Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper--Joint FEWS-NET. 2002b. Food economy zones of Mozambique. Staff Advisory Note. Washington DC: International Maputo: Famine Early Warning System Network, Monetary Fund. Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development, and the National Directorate of Agriculture. Lucio, F., A. Muianga, and M. Muller. 2007. "Flood management in Mozambique." In M. Hellmuth, et FEWS-NET. 2002c. Food economy baseline profile: al., eds. Climate risk management in Africa: learning Coastal Nampula and Southern Cabo Delgado. Maputo: from practice. New York: International Research Famine Early Warning System Network. Institute for Climate and Society (IRI), Columbia University. FEWS-NET. 2008a. Livelihood profile: Chinde Delta, Zambézia, Mozambique (Luabo Sub-zone). FEWS-NET: Mavie, A. 2003. Battling nature in Mozambique. Washington, DC. USAID/FEWS NET MIND: 2. FEWS-NET. 2008b. Livelihood profile: Northern McDonald, R., et al. 2005. "Tropical storms: represen- Nampula coastal (agricultural) zone. FEWS-NET: tation and diagnosis in climate models and the Washington DC. impacts of climate change." Climate Dynamics 25 (1): 19. FEWS-NET. 2008c. Livelihood profile: Southern Nampula coastal (agricultural) livelihood zone. FEWS- MICOA. 2003. Mozambique initial national communica- NET: Washington DC. tion to the UNFCCC. Maputo: Ministry for Co-Ordination of Environmental Affairs. FEWS-NET. 2008d. Livelihood profile: Zambézia coastal livelihood zone. FEWS-NET: Washington DC. Mirza, M. M. Q. 2003. "Climate change and extreme weather events: can developing countries adapt?" FEWS-NET. 2008e. Zambezi Riverine Livelihood Zones Climate Policy 3: 233­248. Profile. FEWS-NET: Washington DC. Muianga, M. 2007. Sustainable land use planning for Grothmann, T., and A. G. Patt. 2005. "Adaptive capacity integrated land and water management for disaster and human cognition: the process of individual adapta- preparedness and vulnerability reduction in the Limpopo tion to climate change." Global Environmental Change Basin. Maputo: United Nations Human Settlements 15 (3): 199­213. Program (UN-HABITAT). Grothmann, T., and F. Reusswig. 2006. "People at risk of Nakicenovic, N., and R. Swart, eds. 2000. Special report flooding: why some residents take precautionary action on emission scenarios. Geneva: Intergovernmental Panel while others do not." Natural Hazards 38 (1­2): 101­120. on Climate Change. d E V E l o p m E n t A n d c l i m At E c h A n g E d i s c U s s i o n pA p E R s 49 Nkomo, J.C., A. O. Nyong, and K. Kulindwa. 2006. In Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper (PRSP). Approved by "The Impacts of Climate Change in Africa." Paper the Council of Ministers: Maputo, Moçambique. submitted to The Stern Review on the Economics of Climate Change. República de Moçambique. 2007. National Adaptation Program of Action (NAPA). Maputo, Mozambique: Osbahr, H., et al. 2008. "Effective livelihood adaptation Ministry for the Co-ordination of Environmental Affairs. to climate change disturbance: scale dimensions of practice in Mozambique." Geoforum 39: 1951­64. United Nations Development Program. 2004. Reducing disaster risk: a challenge for development. New York: Patt, A.G., et al. In press. "Adaptation in integrated United Nations Development Program, Bureau for assessment modeling: where do we stand?" Climatic Crisis Prevention and Recovery. Change. USAID Mozambique. 2008. Thematic briefing paper 1: Patt, A. G., et al., eds. 2008. Assessing Vulnerability to the global food crisis: a blessing or a curse for rural Global Environmental Change: Making information useful Mozambican households? Maputo: United States Agency for adaptation policy and decision-making. London: for International Development. Earthscan. USAID Mozambique. 2008. Thematic briefing paper 2: Patt, A. G., and P. Nussbaumer. 2009. Vulnerability to just how poor are "the poor." Maputo: United States climate change up to 2060 in Mozambique. Laxenburg, Agency for International Development. Austria: International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis. USAID Mozambique. 2008. Thematic briefing paper 3: "Vulnerable" or "At Risk"? What does household food economy Patt, A.G., and D. Schröter. 2008. "Perceptions of tell us about disaster risk reduction? Maputo: United States climate risk in Mozambique: implications for the Agency for International Development. success of adaptation and coping strategies." Global Environmental Change 18: 458­467. USAID Mozambique. 2008. Thematic briefing paper 4: What can HEA livelihood baselines tell us about opportuni- Patt, A.G., P. Suarez, and C. Gwata. 2005. "Effects of ties for development? Maputo: United States Agency for seasonal climate forecasts and participatory workshops International Development. among subsistence farmers in Zimbabwe." Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of Vincent, K. 2004. Creating an index of social vulnerability America 102: 12623­12628. to climate change for Africa. Norwich, UK: Tyndall Center for Climate Research. Phillips, J. 2003. "Determinants of forecast use among communal farmers in Zimbabwe." In K. O'Brien and C. Vincent, K. 2007. "Uncertainty in adaptive capacity and Vogel, eds. Coping with climate variability: the use of the importance of scale." Global Environmental Change seasonal climate forecasts in southern Africa. Aldershot, 17 (1): 12. UK: Ashgate. World Bank. 2000. A Preliminary Assessment of Damage República de Moçambique. 2001. "Action Plan for the from the Flood and Cyclone Emergency of February­March Reduction of Absolute Poverty (PARPA) 2001­2005." 2000. Washington, DC: World Bank. In Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper (PRSP). Approved by the Council of Ministers. Maputo, Moçambique. Yohe, G., and R. S. J. Tol. 2002. "Indicators for social and economic coping capacity--moving toward a work- República de Moçambique. 2006. "Action Plan for the ing definition of adaptive capacity." Global Reduction of Absolute Poverty (PARPA II) 2006­2009." Environmental Change. 2: 25­40. 50 aPPenDIxes aPPenDIx 1. InTeResTIng ResulTs fRoM InDIVIDual foCus gRouP DIsCussIons Interesting lessons on social differentiation Location Participants and income Interesting lessons on vulnerability and adaptation Angoche Elderly and the poorest group comprise 11 percent of people with more diversified incomes are in a better handicapped population position government support to them of 100 there is one guy with a really strong house, and people metecaix ($4) a month is totally inadequate go to him when cyclones come; more such houses are needed social protection network exists Angoche fishermen fish are no longer available in large need to establish a fishing association to manage the with boats quantities resource better people use mosquito nets for fishing, which cyclones and strong winds are the big threat, because deplete fish stocks of the destruction to houses, boats, and coconut trees people help each other to reconstruct after a no forecasts of adverse weather storm men and young people are better at adapting need to stop cutting the mangroves Angoche subsistence fishing and agriculture are main sources of cyclones are biggest hazard, destroying houses and farmers income boats Elderly, single women, widows suffer most wealthier people have built stronger houses that can withstand storms need cash to build better homes Angoche fishermen fishing and selling fish are the main income cyclones lead to hunger and disease activities maybe need to move to a safer area Buzi subsistence Associations exist in the community drought happens annually; locust plague was a recent farmers problem widows are the most vulnerable group increasing hardship over last 10 years Buzi charcoal Access to trees to fell is determined by nobody can adapt to cyclones producers relevant permits chibabava subsistence no cooperatives natural disasters would become less common if they farmers could hold more traditional ceremonies Agriculture and labor are main income sources need to build dams and irrigation, better homes, and homes on higher ground need better inputs for agriculture (tractors, etc.) Continued on next page d E V E l o p m E n t A n d c l i m At E c h A n g E d i s c U s s i o n pA p E R s 51 aPPenDIx 1. InTeResTIng ResulTs fRoM InDIVIDual foCus gRouP DIsCussIons (continued) Interesting lessons on social differentiation Location Participants and income Interesting lessons on vulnerability and adaptation chibabava small no social protection network or association need to get access to 7 billion business exists in the community people people can stock up on food to prepare for drought, this group works in beekeeping using money obtained from selling charcoal subsistence farmers, elderly, orphans are working age people have the greatest adaptive capacity the most vulnerable climate hazards occurring because of rapid deforestation chibabava subsistence no social protection network or associations need to build better houses to prepare for floods and farmers exist in the community cyclones Agriculture and charcoal production are the main sources of income chibabava subsistence no social protection network exists Repairing broken water pumps would be a good farmers adaptation there are activist associations tree planting is needed community controls the firewood resource future well-being will either get worse or better, nobody can predict chibuto widows and no cooperatives in community desperately need alternative sources of income single mothers no paid work Agriculture and lake fishing are main income sources, also charcoal production chibuto community Agriculture and livestock are main activities. problems are lack of health post, electricity, and paved leaders Also fishing and selling rush matting roads Believe that deforestation is causing the natural disasters Believe that climate conditions will improve over next 10 years need early warning chókwe widows An association exists for wood harvesting microcredit to help people start small businesses and and baking diversify income, but small businesses are also tough to work, and loaned money is often used to buy food charcoal is the main source of income technical assistance is needed orphans and elderly are the most vulnerable widows represent 30 percent of population chókwe Elderly men Young men go to south Africa for work, forecast of drought and flood has not been forthcoming leaving women behind to run the farm Unassisted elderly people have the hardest time Remittances from south Africa are important adapting widows represent 30 percent of population mabote farmers Agricultural production, including drought is biggest threat beekeeping, is the biggest activity people have pulled together after disasters mabote Elderly Agriculture, ranching, and forestry are the drought is caused by climate change, which is caused main income activities by deforestation the elderly are the only ones who cannot there isn't even enough drinking water adapt mabote old women Agriculture and charcoal production are the they suffer from a lack of mobile telephone coverage and widows main income-generating activities water shortages are so severe that there is no water for people and cattle to drink. Better storage of grain would help smooth out the hard times Continued on next page 52 t h E s o c i A l d i m E n s i o n s o f A d A p tAt i o n t o c l i m At E c h A n g E i n m o z A m B i q U E aPPenDIx 1. InTeResTIng ResulTs fRoM InDIVIDual foCus gRouP DIsCussIons (continued) Interesting lessons on social differentiation Location Participants and income Interesting lessons on vulnerability and adaptation mabote leaders A savings association exists that supports main problems are a lack of wells, lack of health care, elderly and orphans and lack of roads the young people often leave to seek work tree planting for charcoal production is needed elsewhere Elderly subsistence farmers are the most vulnerable manhiça Elderly little solidarity droughts dry up the wells, leaving even no water for women and drinking widows lots of people go to south Africa You can't adapt if there isn't any water farming, charcoal, and cattle are biggest income sources need to diversify income manhiça leaders no social protection planting trees to increase charcoal production people travel to south Africa deforestation is a big problem, and seen as causing droughts and flooding farming, charcoal, and hunting are main income sources; also beekeeping massingir charcoal Association for tree felling and charcoal lack of water even for human consumption, as well as producers production exists for cattle, because the wells have dried up lack of social services is a key problem, without enough water, no adaptation is possible especially a health post massingir needy no social protection network people travel to south Africa to escape the lack of water women at home constructing a dam would be good not entirely convinced that hazards result from failure to observe traditional ceremonies matutuine leaders forestry and farming are main activities lack of electricity is a problem Elderly and orphans are most vulnerable flooding is annual when dams upstream opens its sluice gates. the dam in south Africa sometimes informs them the worst affected is the entire population in advance, the one in swaziland does not need more traditional ceremonies to ward off drought matutuine widows and no social protection for the elderly poor access roads and lack of facilities to buy basic single products mothers new association formed to share in farming work no differentiation in terms of adaptive capacity main income is working in south Africa and need more dams, irrigation, and technical assistance swaziland, farming, and forestry moatize subsistence Agriculture and fishing are main income Big problem is being eaten by crocodiles when farming farmers sources low-lying land need to build irrigation canals, and avoid cutting down trees for charcoal moatize subsistence cooperatives of small businesses and need better road access, a health center, and police farmers fishermen exist people do receive weather forecasts over the radio, and Agriculture and fishing are main sources of suffer less than in the past income need tools, and motor-driven pumps for irrigation no differences between groups in terms of adaptive capacity moatize subsistence subsistence farmers are the most people try traditional ceremonies to avoid droughts, but farmers vulnerable, because they go hungry with these don't seem to work drought Burnings are a big problem mopeia subsistence going to cities to work has increased flooding is the main hazard farmers standard of living ­ the young can do this canoes are being built no associations in the community farming should be in the lowland during drought periods small business owners have highest incomes, subsistence farmers the lowest Continued on next page d E V E l o p m E n t A n d c l i m At E c h A n g E d i s c U s s i o n pA p E R s 53 aPPenDIx 1. InTeResTIng ResulTs fRoM InDIVIDual foCus gRouP DIsCussIons (continued) Interesting lessons on social differentiation Location Participants and income Interesting lessons on vulnerability and adaptation mopeia subsistence no social protection networks lack of market and access roads are major concern; farmers there are no people to buy their products Associations to market food have been successful at getting people income and hazards occur because of witchcraft raising standards of living problems from natural hazards will improve in next 10 years morrumbala subsistence Association exists hazards occur because of failures of ancestors farmers Agriculture and casual labor are primary frequent floods and droughts sources of income, with fishing as well to protect against drought, farm in the lowlands, to protect against flood, farm in the highland cVm has provided the most assistance morrumbala subsistence subsistence farmers the most vulnerable want to construct dikes to protect against floods. farmers flooding is the most frequent event, followed by drought need to have two machambas, one high and one low morrumbala subsistence no social protection network in the hippos have reduced agricultural production, along with farmers community floods most people are subsistence farmers, who floods destroy all their property are the most vulnerable situation would improve if the climate would change to people living in stronger built houses do not have fewer natural disasters suffer as much cyclones and drought also a problem Vilanculo farmers no associations or cooperatives main problems are lack of information and transportation most vulnerable are elderly, single mothers, drought is main hazard and children hazards have increased because of failure to follow fraud has led to unequal distribution of food local customs aid do not receive radio weather forecasts Vilanculo community community has suffered a loss of social and illegal tree felling is a problem leaders moral values lack of organization is the main barrier to community no associations in community adaptation children suffer most food for work program is mentioned many times as important zavala community no cooperatives planting fruit trees helps leaders Elderly and children are most vulnerable no formal forecasts available, but traditional indicators women most able to adapt need to focus more on raising and selling animals zavala subsistence people here don't travel need to increase the area under cultivation farmers lots of conflicts between families need more organization and knowledge Agriculture and ranching the main income cyclones are worst hazard, along with drought sources zavala widows and people here don't travel need more water pumps elderly farmers no social solidarity or cooperatives lack of rain because have failed to do the traditional ceremonies Agriculture is biggest income source need early warning families that receive remittances are most able to adapt Better employment opportunities are needed 54 t h E s o c i A l d i m E n s i o n s o f A d A p tAt i o n t o c l i m At E c h A n g E i n m o z A m B i q U E aPPenDIx 2. suRVeY InsTRuMenT d E V E l o p m E n t A n d c l i m At E c h A n g E d i s c U s s i o n pA p E R s 55 56 t h E s o c i A l d i m E n s i o n s o f A d A p tAt i o n t o c l i m At E c h A n g E i n m o z A m B i q U E d E V E l o p m E n t A n d c l i m At E c h A n g E d i s c U s s i o n pA p E R s 57 58 t h E s o c i A l d i m E n s i o n s o f A d A p tAt i o n t o c l i m At E c h A n g E i n m o z A m B i q U E 59 aPPenDIx 3. fIelD RePoRT at risk of natural hazard)2; social or socioeconomic aspects (key elements at disposal and affecting house- subMITTeD oCTobeR 5,2009, bY hold's wellbeing that can be translated as combined Raul VaRela factors influencing household levels of wealth, food security and nutrition, health and sanitation)3. b a Ckg R oun D In order to address the above concerns and instruction provided by the World Bank and by taking into The purpose of the study was to create an environment account that adaptation to climatic changes is intrinsi- for understanding economic adaptation to climatic cally linked to anthropogenic multi-factors, a frame- changes and to generate recommendations for subse- work was laid out to capture the cause-effect quent actions leading to better interventions to mitigate relationship among anthropogenic factors integrating and adapt to the effects of this phenomenon. Particular agro-ecologic factors with physical and social aspects. concerns are with fragile livelihood groups, mainly those As a result of this, it was possible to identify six zones households and communities with high exposure to as well as physical hotspot with respect to climatic natural hazards. changes. In addition, elements related to food security and nutrition, poverty indicators as well issues related In order to address such concerns, it becomes impor- to health were integrated for a final definition of tant that a consistent criteria be adopted in the selection geographical hotspot. process to visualize geographical zones that allow us to grasp, confidently, representatives of all livelihood With this background, the study was conducted in three groups followed by an in-depth analysis of their level of stages: adaptation to the effects of climatic changes, formal and traditional interventions, level of resilience, intervention · Definition of hotspots gaps and cost benefit analysis of additional actions to · Three workshops(two regional and one national) overcome the problem in a short, mid and long term · Fieldwork at representative geographical zones perspectives. · Analyses and presentation of overall trends The WB recommendation is that the geographical zones-hotspots be defined based on the combination of three factors: agro-ecologic zones (geographical patterns 1 IIAM had set up 10 agro-ecologic zones defined based on combinations of soil characteristic, 2 For Mozambican context, drought, cyclone, flood and sea level rise are the most common hazards rainfall pattern, vegetations, agriculture potential and 3 For the purpose of this study, food security, health and nutrition, environmental conditions)1; physical aspects (key natu- HIV-AIDS and poverty should be the most relevant socioeconomic ral events that may expose households and communities factors. 60 t h E s o c i A l d i m E n s i o n s o f A d A p tAt i o n t o c l i m At E c h A n g E i n m o z A m B i q U E The present report specifically addresses only issues ·Climatic Changes and Vulnerability, which related to the fieldwork and it will deal with instru- include exposure, sensitivity, resilience and ments, geographical coverage, procedures and activities adaptation as well as institutional and carried out after fieldwork. community´s performance and perception about climatic changes. fI el Dwo R k 2. Institutional questionnaire ­ organized in four parts: · Institution profile, which included the identifi- Fieldwork was initially planned to be conducted by local cation of area of intervention, group entitlement enumerators under the supervision of three junior and partnerships. university graduates. The proposed approach was to · Institutional perception about risk including assure high quality work because that way we could use identification/recall of past events, the effects on local knowledge, control language constraints and carry different social groups, likely chance of repeti- out a more in depth survey, particularly with respect to tion and lesson learnt. identification and characterization of livelihood groups. · Sensitivity, which deals with perception about However, after various attempts to go to the field, events, preventive measures and action for which was postponed for three or four times due to mitigation. administrative reasons, the decision was that fieldwork · Inventory of adaptation (prevention, adaptation was going to be conducted by two junior students under and mitigation done by the community and the supervision of the local technical coordinator. institutions) and constraints. 3. Focus Groups ­ This instrument was designed to Thus, the approach was as follows: capture information about various social groups and to understand common perception of groups about · In each district, the team recruited one local staff, climatic changes, variations on adaptation and sense preferably, one of the participants who attended the about future events. This included wealth ranking regional workshop to be part of the exercise. exercise and specific interview with the representa- · In each administrative post, assistance was also pro- tive of part of the identified social groups. vided by a technical staff who played the role of facilitator as well as translator. Once designed, the instrument was pre-tested and, thereafter, it was adjusted for the final version. It is Instruments important to mention that the results of the various workshops were also keen for the final adjustment of The purpose of fieldwork was to cross check informa- the instruments because they were carried out before tion from the desk review as well as to gather insights fieldwork, on climatic changes at local level, particularly with respect to livelihood groups and individual household. spatial Representation Furthermore, it was important to gather perception from different institutions and civil society about expo- During the preliminary exercise, six zones sensitive to sure to climatic changes, sensitivity, and adaptation, the climatic changes were identified. Later on, they including extreme coping mechanisms, which would were combined with the definition of hotspots, which complement information already compiled from the were crucial for the identification of zones for fieldwork. three workshops. Therefore, three instruments were However, such definition had to be done by taking into developed: account administrative boundaries. All zones were covered and regional variations (inland and coastal) as 1. Household questionnaire ­ was divided in 4 well as population density were taken into account sections: · Sociodemographic information As per the map, a total of 7 out of 10 provinces were · Agriculture performance and income source visited of which 2 in the North, 2 in the Center and 3 · Shocks and coping strategies in the South. d E V E l o p m E n t A n d c l i m At E c h A n g E d i s c U s s i o n pA p E R s 61 sensitivity and adaptation; individual action taken to mitigate the problem; perception about outlooks. · One of the objectives of the above mentioned meetings was to discuss spatial variations about types of climatic change exposures, population density, examples of adaptation and variations on exposure to risk. For a prac- tical purpose, participants usually described the characteristics of various administrative posts4. · After the discussions, the team, consensually, selected two administrative posts to be part of the study. In general, the selection of theses posts was done after an in-depth discussion about past events, exposure and sensitivity of each post and, thereafter, the selection was made. · At Administrative Post · Meetings were held with the population of dif- ferent social strata as well as with traditional authorities. · The discussion started with an introduction about the purpose of the mission, its neutrality in addressing the issue and clarification that there were no political, economic gains or even Procedures commitments neither from the organization nor for follow up of projects or programs. The following steps were followed: · Following that, discussion about socioeconomy of administrative post linked to climatic · At District Level changes took place. The combination of these · Upon arrival in each district, the team met with two elements guided the direction of the dis- local administrator and his/her staff to explain cussion that was often supported by various the purpose of the mission and to gather pre- techniques of participatory approach and com- liminary background about agenda on climatic munity development. changes, past events, and evidences of risks and · Once again, a clear picture about socioeconomic adaptation. variation and climatic change exposures at local · Additionally, the team met with various insti- level were addressed. This was a good opportu- tutions to fill out the questionnaire about cli- nity to select the 2 "localidades5" should be matic changes. When it was possible, visited. separated interviews were conducted with offi- cial institutions and then with NGOs or, oth- 4 Geographical/administrative units below districts. In average each erwise together. Such procedure was intended district has two to four administrative post and each administrative to control for biases and for crosschecking post has about three "localidades" information about the same issue. Overall, 5 There is wider variation among localidades in terms of livelihood and this was a good opportunity to discuss various social organization as well as exposure to the climatic changes. Some localidades were in the very coastal area and typically linked to fishery, insights about institutional perception on cli- while others were in the interior and mainly subject to subsistence matic changes in terms of: exposures; agriculture. 62 t h E s o c i A l d i m E n s i o n s o f A d A p tAt i o n t o c l i m At E c h A n g E i n m o z A m B i q U E · Wealth Ranking technicians to go over each part of the questionnaire to · The meeting at administrative posts was com- make sure that everything was accordingly. CSPro was pleted with the exercise of wealth ranking to the selected software because it will allow data to be identify and characterize livelihood groups as entered friendly and can be easily transferred either to well as their proportion and distribution within SPSS or Excell. the "localidade". Typical items (i.e. maize, vari- ous types of beans, stones and other local items) focus Interviews and Institutional questionnaires were used based on their value/role to charac- terize livelihood groups. Such exercise was well The post-coding was difficult due to a wide variation of taken by the populations who embraced it and responses, even though, a template was designed for participated actively; therefore, the team that purpose. To counteract the problem, the option was became mere facilitators. to write a synthesis, which, at this stage, is all in · As a result, there was a general perception that Portuguese, but if needed, it can be translated. we could find concentration of various liveli- hood groups at one "localidade" and, based on lesson learnt that, the team selected two localidades for hh and focus group interviews. Overall, the results for all the components of this study · At localidade were very interesting. However, they could have been much better. Several issues prevented us from getting As per table 1, a total of 24 Administrative Posts and 28 greater results and they are highlighted below: localidades were visited. In each localidade, the follow- ing took place: 15 HH interviews with representatives · Contrary to what happened in other countries, the of various identified livelihood groups; 3 focus inter- study in Mozambique did not have any institutional views; 1 institutional. integration at all. Not only that, but Mozambique lacked a multi-disciplinary core team. In some cases, purposive interviews were conducted to · Theoretically, the study had a national coordina- capture and enhance social variation, despite the fact tor. Even though we recognize all her effort, she that they were not identified during the wealth ranking was overloaded with other work and often away exercise (i.e. gender issue, widows, orphan child as head from Mozambique and, thus, she could not follow of HH). all the day-to-day activities. Furthermore, her relationship with WB was not all clear at all, Post-field Visit which often created some difficulties when she needed to drawn upon support from the · Data Cleaning and Post-Coding organization. · The team had also a technical coordinator who was A total of 137 HH questionnaires were completed as away from the country at both initial phase and well as 18 institutional and 45 focus interviews. Due to fieldwork. If he were here, he could have made a the fact that there were close and open questions in the difference and many issues could have been dealt questionnaires, there was a need for the revision and with more profoundly. Thus, this led to some limi- post-coding. This exercise took longer than expected tations on addressing technical issues. because only two junior collaborators under my supervi- · There was limited consensus in terms of procedures, sion were carrying out the task. They spent about six methodologies and overall technical aspects. Often, days on that task. what was produced in the ground was not totally integrated or taken into account. For example, · Data Entry issues on socioeconomic aspects, including poverty and food security and nutrition were not well inte- A database had to be designed in order to enter the grated with climatic changes, even though, some data. For that, the supervisor worked closely with very good materials were produced. d E V E l o p m E n t A n d c l i m At E c h A n g E d i s c U s s i o n pA p E R s 63 · Resource allocation and very limited support from made it impossible to carry out the work smoothly WB office in Mozambique made it difficult to and; in some cases, it generated conflicts with implement the activities. respect to the record of number of days on consul- · Often, the team was asked to prepare agenda with tancy work. chronograms, budget and procedures, which were often changed for more than once. Such situation Overall, this activity was quite an experience and useful interfered with the consultant's scheduled and to exchange ideas and to shape up methodologies to made planning difficult. This was particularly bring about outstanding results on economic costs of aggravated by great delays (i.e. fieldwork) which adaptation to climatic changes. The World Bank Group 1818 H Street, NW Washington, D.C. 20433 USA Tel: 202-473-1000 Fax: 202-477-6391 Internet: www.worldbank.org/climatechange