The World Bank Report No: ISR14650 Implementation Status & Results Moldova Strengthening the Effectiveness of the Social Safety Net Results-Based Financing Specific Investment Loan (P120913) Public Disclosure Copy Operation Name: Strengthening the Effectiveness of the Social Safety Net Project Stage: Implementation Seq.No: 6 Status: ARCHIVED Archive Date: 30-May-2014 Results-Based Financing Specific Investment Loan (P120913) Country: Moldova Approval FY: 2011 Product Line: IBRD/IDA Region: EUROPE AND CENTRAL ASIA Lending Instrument: Specific Investment Loan Implementing Agency(ies): Key Dates Board Approval Date 09-Jun-2011 Original Closing Date 30-Jun-2016 Planned Mid Term Review Date 10-Oct-2014 Last Archived ISR Date 28-Oct-2013 Effectiveness Date 26-Oct-2011 Revised Closing Date 30-Jun-2016 Actual Mid Term Review Date Project Development Objectives Project Development Objective (from Project Appraisal Document) The development objective of the proposed project is to improve the efficiency and equity of Moldova's safety net through a fiscally sustainable expansion and strengthening of the Ajutor Social Program. Has the Project Development Objective been changed since Board Approval of the Project? Yes No Component(s) Component Name Component Cost Component 1. Results Area 1. Improved equity by increasing the Ajutor Social Program coverage 13.00 while keeping it well targeted. Component 1. Results Area 2. Increased allocative efficiency to achieve fiscal consolidation and 11.00 sustainability for Moldova’s social safety net. Component 1. Results Area 3. Enhanced administrative efficiency, governance, and transparency of 7.00 Public Disclosure Copy the social assistance system. Component 2. Institutional Strengthening for Benefits Administration 6.00 Overall Ratings Previous Rating Current Rating Progress towards achievement of PDO Moderately Satisfactory Moderately Unsatisfactory Overall Implementation Progress (IP) Moderately Unsatisfactory Moderately Satisfactory Overall Risk Rating Moderate Substantial Page 1 of 5 The World Bank Report No: ISR14650 Implementation Status Overview The achievement of the development objective has been under jeopardy since 2013 when the coverage of the two benefit programs supported by the project, namely Ajutor Social and the Heating Allowance, has shrunk to such an extent that the progress attained earlier has been eliminated. Through a new development policy operation, the World Bank supported an increase in the level of income eligibility threshold and other program adjustments which resulted in the growing number of beneficiaries. However, the program has not Public Disclosure Copy yet gained the momentum for steady expansion and prospects for achieving 50,000 monthly beneficiaries and the corresponding Disbursement-Linked Indicator in 2014 are uncertain. Moreover, some recent policy decisions and initiatives further jeopardize Ajutor Social expansion as well as consolidation of categorical benefits. Further improvements in both the program eligibility and its administration are warranted and should be introduced in an expedient manner. Generous increases in universal benefits like child benefits should be avoided as these adversely affect efficiency and sustainability of the social protection spending. Boosting categorical benefits is not the most efficient way to tackle poverty. Such policies inevitably crowd out beneficiaries and budget from the last resort social assistance transfers, like Ajutor Social, that support the poorest. Locations No Location data has been entered Results Project Development Objective Indicators Indicator Name Core Unit of Measure Baseline Current End Target Project Development Indicator 4. Days Value 30.00 15.00 15.00 Administrative efficiency – Turnaround time for Date 01-Jul-2011 04-Apr-2014 30-Jun-2016 Ajutor Social application processing, including Comments In 2010 turn around time was verification and eligibility decisions, is reduced to 15 days. over 30 days Project Development Indicator 6. Transparency Percentage Value 78.00 95.00 93.00 Increased number of Moldova citizens is aware Date 01-Jan-2011 30-Jun-2013 30-Jun-2016 of Ajutor Social Program Comments Citizens awareness of Ajutor As measured by 2012 HBS Social was measured by 2010 HBS and stood at 78%. Project Development Indicator 5: Governance Percentage Value 0.00 29.00 30.00 – Losses from irregularities in the Ajutor Social Date 01-Jan-2011 04-Apr-2014 30-Jun-2015 benefits reduced by 30% of 6,600 mn (baseline Comments The baseline was simulated According to the Social estimate). Public Disclosure Copy based on MLSPF data on Inspectorate annual report of suspicious applications which 2013. is the best approximation possible in the absence of routine social inspection function. Beneficiaries of Safety Nets programs Number Value 126700.00 350000.00 (number) Date 31-Aug-2010 30-Jun-2013 Comments The beneficiary unit of Ajutor Social Program is household Page 2 of 5 The World Bank Report No: ISR14650 and so the program registry records households. Therefore, the numbers provided for individual Public Disclosure Copy beneficiaries are estimated based on the the total number of households which have received Ajutor Social benefit at least once from the start of the program, an average size of the recipient household for this period, and gender compositionof the recipient households, available for adult members only. Beneficiaries of Safety Nets programs - Female Number Value 60180.00 175000.00 (number) Sub Type Date 31-Aug-2010 30-Jun-2013 Breakdown Comments Beneficiaries of Safety Nets programs - Other Number Value 126700.00 350000.00 social assistance programs (number) Sub Type Date 31-Aug-2010 30-Jun-2012 Breakdown Comments Project Develoment Indicator 1: Coverage: Percentage Value 14.30 18.80 20.00 20% of population in the poorest quintile Date 01-Jul-2011 30-Jun-2013 30-Jun-2016 receive AS benefits Comments as measured by 2010 HBS As measured by 2012 HBS Project Development Indicator 2. Targeting Yes/No Value Yes Yes Yes Accuracy:The share of Ajutor Social transfers Date 01-Jul-2011 30-Jun-2013 30-Jun-2016 that reach the poorest population Comments In 2010, the targeting In 2012 the targeting quintileremains above 65% accuracy was at 86.4% accuracy was 84.1% as (above the "floor" of 65%) as measured by HBS. measured by HBS Number of Ajutor Social Program beneficiary Number Value 32000.00 32700.00 60000.00 Public Disclosure Copy households reaches 60,000 Sub Type Supplemental Project Development Indicator 3. Consolidation Percentage Value 0.00 26.00 30.00 of categorical benefits--Spending on Date 01-Jan-2011 04-Apr-2014 30-Jun-2016 categorical benefits reduced by 30% of the Comments pre-reform level of MDL771 bn in 2010 Page 3 of 5 The World Bank Report No: ISR14650 Reduction of spending on Nominative Percentage Value 0.00 62.00 60.00 Compensation benefits by 60% of pre-reform Sub Type Date 01-Jan-2011 30-Jun-2013 30-Jun-2016 level of MDL354,394.9 mil Breakdown Comments Public Disclosure Copy Disability and child benefits are consolidated Yes/No Value No No Yes Sub Type Supplemental Intermediate Results Indicators Indicator Name Core Unit of Measure Baseline Current End Target Social Inspectorate is established and Yes/No Value No Yes Yes functional Date 31-Oct-2010 29-Feb-2012 31-Oct-2012 Comments The Inspectorate was established in late 2011 and began operations in 2012 Heating Allowance, as a top up to the Ajutor Yes/No Value No Yes Yes Social, is in place Date 31-Oct-2010 30-Jun-2012 31-Mar-2012 Comments Heating Allowance program Heating Allowance program not yet launched reached 80,000 beneficiary households Service Delivery Standards and business Yes/No Value No No Yes model for SADs for administration of Ajutor Date 31-Oct-2010 16-Sep-2013 31-Dec-2013 Social program at local level are developed Comments the standards and model have been developed but not yet operational Data on Financial Performance (as of 09-Apr-2014) Financial Agreement(s) Key Dates Public Disclosure Copy Project Ln/Cr/Tf Status Approval Date Signing Date Effectiveness Date Original Closing Date Revised Closing Date P120913 IDA-50010 Effective 09-Jun-2011 01-Jul-2011 26-Oct-2011 30-Jun-2016 30-Jun-2016 Disbursements (in Millions) Project Ln/Cr/Tf Status Currency Original Revised Cancelled Disbursed Undisbursed % Disbursed P120913 IDA-50010 Effective XDR 22.90 22.90 0.00 13.63 9.27 60.00 Disbursement Graph Page 4 of 5 The World Bank Report No: ISR14650 Public Disclosure Copy Key Decisions Regarding Implementation The Ministry of Labor, Social Protection and Family should refrain from boosting universal or categorical benefits and adopt measures to support expansion of targeted social assistance transfers, including by intensifying Guaranteed Minimum Income increase. Restructuring History There has been no restructuring to date. Related Projects There are no related projects. Public Disclosure Copy Page 5 of 5