The World Bank Djibouti: National Strategy for Development of Statistics (NSDS) and Strengthening of National Account Production ( P163609 ) Project Information Document/ Identification/Concept Stage (PID) Public Disclosure Copy Concept Stage | Date Prepared/Updated: 22-Mar-2017 | Report No: PIDC112943 Mar 23, 2017 Page 1 of 9 The World Bank Djibouti: National Strategy for Development of Statistics (NSDS) and Strengthening of National Account Production ( P163609 ) BASIC INFORMATION A. Basic Project Data Environmental Project ID Parent Project ID (if any) Project Name Assessment Category Djibouti: National Strategy for Development of Statistics P163609 C - Not Required (NSDS) and Strengthening of National Account Production ( P163609 ) Region Country Date PID Prepared Estimated Date of Approval MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH Djibouti 22-Mar-2017 20-Mar-2017 AFRICA Public Disclosure Copy Initiation Note Review Lending Instrument Borrower(s) Implementing Agency Decision Investment Project Ministry of Finance in The review did authorize the DISED Financing charge of statistics preparation to continue PROJECT FINANCING DATA FINANCING FINANCING SOURCES Select all that apply [ ✔ ] Counterpart Funding [ ✔ ] Trust Funds [ ] Parallel Financing SUMMARY (USD) Total Project cost 468,533 Total Financing 468,533 Counterpart Funding 48,023 Trust Funds 420,510 Financing Gap 0 DETAILS Mar 23, 2017 Page 2 of 9 The World Bank Djibouti: National Strategy for Development of Statistics (NSDS) and Strengthening of National Account Production ( P163609 ) Counterpart Funding Source Currency Amount USD Equivalent Local Govts. (Prov., District, City) of USD-US Dollars 48,023 48,023 Borrowing Country(LOCA) Trust Funds Source Currency Amount USD Equivalent Trust Fund for Statistical Capacity USD-US Dollars 420,510 420,510 Building(TSCB) B. Introduction and Context Public Disclosure Copy Country Context The lack of reliable statistics for monitoring and evaluation remains one of the major handicap in Djibouti. Djibouti has long relied on the IMF estimations through its article 4 consultations for national account numbers including GDP figures. The country had never had a national strategy for the development of statistics (NSDS) until 2011, when the first NSDS (NSDS_ 2011-2015) was prepared. Djibouti has apparently experienced strong growth averaging 6 percent over the past 3 years. However, the growth, mainly fueled by capital intensive activities in port development and rail way construction (to link Djibouti to Ethiopia), has failed to make a significant dent on poverty and unemployment in the country. Donors continue to support development activities in Djibouti and the government has developed a national development program (vision 2035) to tackle the social issues related to poverty and shared prosperity. But, the lack of adequate national strategy for statistics development and reliable national accounts continue to preclude monitoring and evaluation and necessary macroeconomic analysis to assess the magnitude of the growth and fiscal impacts of the country’s various programs and investments projects. The objective of this project is to help establish a realistic and well-grounded national strategy for the statistical development and strengthen the national account system, and a sustainable data production in Djibouti. - For the NSDS, the development objective is to prepare a new national strategy document for statistics development that will be feasible and realistic. This will entails sectorial analyses to identify the main constraints to the statistical system development in Djibouti and organization of workshops to discuss and disseminate the strategies among stakeholders and donors. - The main objective of national account aspect of the project is to build a strong foundation for a reliable and sustainable national accounts system in Djibouti. Sectoral and Institutional Context 1. Sectoral and Institutional Context of the NSDS The new NSDS should be built, for its success, on an effective road map, which entails activities that will help identify Mar 23, 2017 Page 3 of 9 The World Bank Djibouti: National Strategy for Development of Statistics (NSDS) and Strengthening of National Account Production ( P163609 ) the main constraints to statistics development and define a feasible a grounded strategy for a strong and sustainable statistical system in Djibouti. This will require performing sectorial diagnoses of the National Statistical System (NSS); providing expertise to identify strategic areas to formulate the action plans; and defining a mechanism for monitoring and evaluation at the sectorial and institutional levels. An effective preparation of the new NSDS grounded in the country’s reality through a strong road map would help revitalize and develop national statistical tools to address the challenges of how to sustainably produce statistical data and enable the monitoring and evaluation of policies, development programs and projects, and fight against poverty. It will allow integrating innovative approaches and bring the national statistical system closer to international best practice standards. 2. Sectorial and Institutional Context of strengthening the national accounts production As part of the implementation of the 2011-2015 NSDS, a service delivery agreement was signed between the Department of Statistics and Demographic Studies of Djibouti (DISED) and AFRISTAT under the PASED Project, funded Public Disclosure Copy by the African Development Bank (ADB). In the framework of this agreement, AFRISTAT provided support for statistical capacity building in Djibouti (at the DISED) to implement the 2008 National Accounts (SNA 2008), with the use of ERETES module from September, 2015 to March, 2016. The United Nation Development Program (UNDP) financed the continuation of the training of the DISED staffs on national accounts production for additional three months up to June, 2016. A number of activities were piloted by the AFRISTAT expert to renovate the national accounts. These key activities included: the diagnosis of national accounts, the definition of a statistical base year accounts, the implementation of new classifications of activities and products, the theoretical and practical training of DISED staff on the 2008 SNA using ERETES, the identification, collection and processing of data sources, and the preliminary preparation of national accounts. These activities yield in some key outputs including the production of the Table of Supply Use (TSU) and the Table of Integrated Economic Accounts (TCEI) for the base year of 2013. Works of national accounts for 2014 (collects of data sources for 2014, processing of data). Relationship to CPF The elaboration of a new strategy for national statistics development in Djibouti is aligned with the country partnership strategy (CPS) of FY2014-2017, which builds on the government of Djibouti’s development strategy- Vision 2035. A well designed NSDS and its implementation would facilitate not only monitoring and evaluation of existing development programs, but also that of the government’s new programs for development and operational action plans as defined in its vision 2035. The strengthening of national accounts production in Djibouti is aligned with the country partnership strategy (CPS) of FY2014-2017, which builds on the government of Djibouti’s development strategy- Vision 2035. The quality of the national accounts in Djibouti will help in monitoring and evaluation of development perspective. Indeed, adequate national accounts, including GDP figures would facilitate necessary macroeconomic analysis to assess the magnitude of the growth and fiscal impacts of the country’s various programs and investments projects and take adequate measures against its growing unemployment and poverty. Mar 23, 2017 Page 4 of 9 The World Bank Djibouti: National Strategy for Development of Statistics (NSDS) and Strengthening of National Account Production ( P163609 ) C. Project Development Objective(s) Proposed Development Objective(s) The proposed project with two fundamental pillars will, if implemented, help establish a realistic and well-grounded national strategy for the statistical development and strengthen the national account system, and a sustainable data production in Djibouti 1. The development objective of the NSDS pillar of the proposed project is to prepare a new national strategy document for statistics development that will be feasible and realistic. This will entails sectorial analyses to identify the main constraints to the statistical system development in Djibouti and organization of workshops to discuss and disseminate the strategies among stakeholders and donors. 2. The development objective of the National account pillar of the project: The achievements with the supports from the ADB and UNDP remain partial and preliminary. Meanwhile, the capacity of the technical staff of the DISED remains weak with the short live of the previous training period. Securing the current achievements and further strengthening the statistical capacity in Djibouti requires some short and medium term Public Disclosure Copy efforts. Mainly: (i) the continuation of the technical team’s capacity building to engage resolutely in sustained production of national accounts indicators; (ii) Putting in place important devices allowing the provision of relevant inputs to the compilation of national accounts at constant prices to measure the actual performance of the economy. These include among others: enterprise statistics from the establishment of a business directory and associated indicators; indicators of economic activity: price indexes and volume of industrial activities, index of turnover, foreign trade indices, etc; the development of the accounts for 2015 and 2016 (final accounts 2015 and provisional 2016 to the year 2017); retropolation of old series (2008-2012) using the new system of accounts; and publication and training in the use of classifications of activities and products. Key Results 1. prepared and available national strategy for the development of statistics 2. Sustainable production and publishing of national accounts D. Preliminary Description Activities/Components Activities of the NSDS: Pillar 1 of the Project Mar 23, 2017 Page 5 of 9 The World Bank Djibouti: National Strategy for Development of Statistics (NSDS) and Strengthening of National Account Production ( P163609 ) Activity 1: Diagnostic of the NSS  Preparation of sectorial diagnostics by the consultants (international expert and National consultants) and the examination of the report "Diagnostic SSN" by the sectoral Committees  Presentation and validation of the report on the "sectorial diagnosis" by the Steering Committee  Presentation of diagnosis report to the PTF  Submission of the diagnosis report for adoption at the Inter-ministerial Council Activity 2: Vision and Strategies  Review of the vision and strategies by the Sector Committees  Presentation and validation of the vision and strategy by the Steering Committee Public Disclosure Copy  Submission of the vision and strategies of the Inter-ministerial Council Activity 3: Development of action plans  Review of the action plans by the sectoral Committees  Presentation and validation of the action plans by the sectoral Committees  Presentation of the action plan to the PTF  Submission of the action plan to the Inter-ministerial Council Activity 4: Completion of the NSDS Document  Drafting of the NSDS summary document by the Technical Secretariat and the International Consultant  Examination of the SNDS summary document by the Sectorial Committees  Presentation and validation of the action plans by the sectoral Committees  Presentation of the action plans to the PTF  Submission of the action plan to the Inter-ministerial Council Activity 5: Implementation of the NSDS  Presentation of the NSDS 2016-2020 to all stakeholders of the SSN through a workshop  Preparing an advocacy document for the financing of the NSDS and NSDS document printing  Mobilization of resources for the implementation of the NSDS 2016-2020 Mar 23, 2017 Page 6 of 9 The World Bank Djibouti: National Strategy for Development of Statistics (NSDS) and Strengthening of National Account Production ( P163609 ) Pillar 2: National Accounts production Base Year 2013  Finalization of the Supply Use Table (SUT), Table of integrated economic accounts (TIEA), and analysis and publication Current Year 2014  Treatment of 2014 data sources  Development of accounts with the ERETES (Mission of the expert on NA) Public Disclosure Copy Current Year 2015  Data collection for 2015  Treatment of 2015 data sources (Mission of the expert on NA)  Development of accounts with the ERETES (Mission of the expert on NA)  Development of accounts with the ERETES (Mission of the expert on NA) Current Year 2016  Construction of the provisional accounts for 2016 (methodology, data collection)  Provisional accounts work for 2016 (Mission of the expert on NA)  Provisional accounts for 2016 (Mission of the expert on NA) Development of external trade indices  Methodology, Data Preparation and Implementation of the model (Mission on enterprise statistics -ES)  Work on index Development  Elaboration of indices (Mission on ES)  Analysis and publication Set up of the business register Mar 23, 2017 Page 7 of 9 The World Bank Djibouti: National Strategy for Development of Statistics (NSDS) and Strengthening of National Account Production ( P163609 )  Directory development work  Directory development work (Mission on ES) Development of short-term/cyclical indices of activity (IPPI, ICA, etc.)  Data collection  Work on indexes Development (Mission on ES) Retropolation of old series of national accounts Public Disclosure Copy  Preparatory work (methodology, collecting additional data)  Retropolation Works (Mission of the expert on NA) Classifications of activities and products (NAD and NOPROD)  Finalization of document of the classifications  Validation, Publication and dissemination Training of partners of the DISED in the use and implementation of new nomenclatures SAFEGUARDS E. Safeguard Policies that Might Apply Safeguard Policies Triggered by the Yes No TBD Project Environmental Assessment OP/BP 4.01 X Natural Habitats OP/BP 4.04 X Forests OP/BP 4.36 X Pest Management OP 4.09 X Physical Cultural Resources OP/BP 4.11 X Indigenous Peoples OP/BP 4.10 X Involuntary Resettlement OP/BP 4.12 X Mar 23, 2017 Page 8 of 9 The World Bank Djibouti: National Strategy for Development of Statistics (NSDS) and Strengthening of National Account Production ( P163609 ) Safety of Dams OP/BP 4.37 X Projects on International Waterways X OP/BP 7.50 Projects in Disputed Areas OP/BP 7.60 X CONTACT POINT World Bank Contact : Julie Saty Lohi Title : Economist Telephone No : 202-473-0089 Email : Public Disclosure Copy Borrower/Client/Recipient Borrower : Ministry of Finance in charge of statistics Implementing Agencies Implementing DISED Agency : Contact : Idriss Ali Soultan Ali Soultan Title : Director of the DISED Telephone No : 253-77840459 Email : idrissalison@yahoo.fr Contact : Sekou Tidiani KONATE Title : Ingénieur Statisticien/DU Epidémiologie Telephone No : 25321357876 Email : st_konate@yahoo.com Omar Abdoulkader Abdoulkader Contact : Title : Statistician Mohamed Telephone No : 25377632076 Email : omarjoud@yahoo.fr FOR MORE INFORMATION CONTACT The World Bank 1818 H Street, NW Washington, D.C. 20433 Telephone: (202) 473-1000 Web: http://www.worldbank.org/projects Mar 23, 2017 Page 9 of 9