Document of The World Bank FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY Report No: ICR00004394 IMPLEMENTATION COMPLETION AND RESULTS REPORT (GEF TRUST FUND GRANT NUMBER TF012960) ON A GRANT FROM THE GLOBAL ENVIRONMENT FACILITY (GEF) TRUST FUND IN THE AMOUNT OF US$1.05 MILLION TO THE ARAB REPUBLIC OF EGYPT FOR THE SECOND PHASE OF THE MULTICOUNTRY REGIONAL COORDINATION ON IMPROVED WATER RESOURCES MANAGEMENT AND CAPACITY BUILDING PROGRAM - APL 2 (P130801) May 25, 2018 Water Global Practice Egypt Country Management Unit Middle East And North Africa Region CURRENCY EQUIVALENTS (Exchange Rate Effective November 30, 2017) Currency Unit US$ = SDR 1.4154 FISCAL YEAR July 1 – June 30 Regional Vice President: Hafez M. H. Ghanem Country Director: Asad Alam Senior Global Practice Director: Guang Zhe Chen Practice Manager: Carmen Nonay Task Team Leader(s): Qun Li ICR Main Contributor: Syeda Maheen Zehra ABBREVIATIONS AND ACRONYMS APL Adaptable Program Loan AWC Arab Water Council AWI Arab World Initiative CAS Chinese Academy of Sciences CDL Cropland Data Layers CRTEAN Centre Régional de Télédétection des Etats d’Afrique du Nord CRTS Centre Royal de Télédétection Spatiale CNT Centre National de Télédétection CNRS Conseil National de la Recherche Scientifique CPF Country Partnership Framework CQS Consultant Qualifications CWPF China-World Bank Partnership Facility DA Designated Account DSS Decision Support System ECCRI Environment and Climate Change Research Institute EIA Environmental Impact Assessment EMA Egyptian Meteorological Agency EMP Environmental Management Plan ESW Economic and Sector Work ET Evapotranspiration FM Financial Management FMS Financial Management Specialist FO Financial Officer GEF Global Environment Facility GRACE Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment HPC High Performance Computing ICR Implementation Completion and Results Report IPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change IFR Interim Financial Report IBRD International Bank for Reconstruction and Development ICB International Competitive Bidding ICBA International Center for Biosaline Agriculture ICARDA International Center for Agricultural Research in the Dry Areas IDA International Development Association IEG Independent Evaluation Group IPSAS International Public-Sector Accounting Standards IW International Waters LCS Least Cost Selection LIS Land Information System LSM Land Surface Model MALR Ministry of Agriculture and Land Reclamation MENA Middle East and North Africa METAP Mediterranean Environmental Technical Assistance Program MODIS Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer MOIIC Ministry of Investment and International Cooperation MTR Midterm Review MWRI Ministry of Water Resources and Irrigation M&E Monitoring and Evaluation NARSS National Authority for Remote Sensing and Space Sciences NASA National Aeronautics and Space Administration NASS National Agricultural Statistics Service NCB National Competitive Bidding NGO Nongovernmental Organization ORAF Operational Risk Assessment Framework OPT/UE Optimization/-Uncertainty Estimation PAD Project Appraisal Document PDO Project Development Objective POM Project Operations Manual PMU Project Management Unit PSE Problem Solving Environment RADI Institute of Remote Sensing and Digital Earth RF Results Framework RPMU Regional Project Management Unit RWSI Regional Water Security Initiative QCBS Quality and Cost Based Selection QBS Quality Based Selection SAR Synthetic Aperture Radar SBD Standard Bidding Document SEBAL Surface Energy Balance Algorithm for Land SEBS Surface Energy Balance System SOE Statement of Expenditures SSS Single Source Selection TAC Technical Advisory Committee TOR Terms of Reference UN United Nations USAID United States Agency for International Development VSAT Very Small Aperture Terminal WA Withdrawal Application WISP Water Information System Platform WMRI Water Management Research Institute WRF Weather Research and Forecasting TABLE OF CONTENTS DATA SHEET ....................................................................... ERROR! BOOKMARK NOT DEFINED. I. PROJECT CONTEXT AND DEVELOPMENT OBJECTIVES ....................................................... 5 A. CONTEXT AT APPRAISAL .........................................................................................................5 B. SIGNIFICANT CHANGES DURING IMPLEMENTATION (IF APPLICABLE) .......................................9 II. OUTCOME .................................................................................................................... 12 A. RELEVANCE OF PDOs ......................................................................................................... 12 B. ACHIEVEMENT OF PDOs (EFFICACY) ................................................................................... 12 C. EFFICIENCY ........................................................................................................................ 15 D. JUSTIFICATION OF OVERALL OUTCOME RATING ................................................................. 16 E. OTHER OUTCOMES AND IMPACTS (IF ANY) ........................................................................ 16 III. KEY FACTORS THAT AFFECTED IMPLEMENTATION AND OUTCOME ................................ 18 A. KEY FACTORS DURING PREPARATION ................................................................................... 18 B. KEY FACTORS DURING IMPLEMENTATION ............................................................................. 18 IV. BANK PERFORMANCE, COMPLIANCE ISSUES, AND RISK TO DEVELOPMENT OUTCOME .. 21 A. QUALITY OF MONITORING AND EVALUATION (M&E) ............................................................ 21 B. ENVIRONMENTAL, SOCIAL, AND FIDUCIARY COMPLIANCE ..................................................... 21 C. BANK PERFORMANCE ........................................................................................................... 22 D.RISK TO DEVELOPMENT OUTCOME ........................................................................................ 23 V. LESSONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS ............................................................................. 24 ANNEX 1. RESULTS FRAMEWORK AND KEY OUTPUTS ........................................................... 26 ANNEX 2. BANK LENDING AND IMPLEMENTATION SUPPORT/SUPERVISION ......................... 34 ANNEX 3. PROJECT COST BY COMPONENT ........................................................................... 35 ANNEX 4. EFFICIENCY ANALYSIS ........................................................................................... 36 ANNEX 5. BORROWER, CO-FINANCIER AND OTHER PARTNER/STAKEHOLDER COMMENTS ... 37 ANNEX 6. SUPPORTING DOCUMENTS (IF ANY) ..................................................................... 40 ANNEX 7. MAP .................................................................................................................... 41 ANNEX 8. WISP TOOLKIT...................................................................................................... 42 The World Bank Regional Coordination for Improved Water Resources Mgt. & Capacity (P130801) DATA SHEET BASIC INFORMATION Product Information Project ID Project Name Regional Coordination for Improved Water Resources P130801 Mgt. & Capacity Country Financing Instrument Egypt, Arab Republic of Investment Project Financing Original EA Category Revised EA Category Not Required (C) Not Required (C) Organizations Borrower Implementing Agency National Authority for Remote Sensing and Space Science MOIIC (NARSS), Cairo, Egypt. Project Development Objective (PDO) Original PDO The development objective of the Second Phase of the Multi-country Regional Coordination on Improved Water Resources Management andCapacity Building Program (APL 2) Project for Egypt is to improve water resources and agricultural management and planning within and across beneficiary countries based on quantitative and spatial- based decision making tools. Page 1 of 46 The World Bank Regional Coordination for Improved Water Resources Mgt. & Capacity (P130801) FINANCING Original Amount (US$) Revised Amount (US$) Actual Disbursed (US$) World Bank Financing 1,050,000 1,050,000 1,025,316 TF-12960 Total 1,050,000 1,050,000 1,025,316 Non-World Bank Financing Borrower 0 0 0 Total 0 0 0 Total Project Cost 1,050,000 1,050,000 1,025,316 KEY DATES Approval Effectiveness MTR Review Original Closing Actual Closing 17-Jul-2012 28-Aug-2012 13-May-2015 30-Nov-2016 30-Nov-2017 RESTRUCTURING AND/OR ADDITIONAL FINANCING Date(s) Amount Disbursed (US$M) Key Revisions 30-Nov-2016 .41 Change in Results Framework Change in Loan Closing Date(s) Change in Implementation Schedule KEY RATINGS Outcome Bank Performance M&E Quality Satisfactory Satisfactory Substantial RATINGS OF PROJECT PERFORMANCE IN ISRs Actual No. Date ISR Archived DO Rating IP Rating Disbursements (US$M) 01 09-Jul-2013 Satisfactory Moderately Satisfactory .15 02 04-Jan-2014 Satisfactory Moderately Satisfactory .15 Page 2 of 46 The World Bank Regional Coordination for Improved Water Resources Mgt. & Capacity (P130801) 03 11-Jun-2014 Moderately Satisfactory Moderately Satisfactory .15 04 02-Jan-2015 Unsatisfactory Unsatisfactory .15 05 30-Jun-2015 Unsatisfactory Unsatisfactory .21 06 24-Dec-2015 Unsatisfactory Unsatisfactory .21 Moderately 07 28-Jun-2016 Unsatisfactory .21 Unsatisfactory 08 29-Nov-2016 Moderately Satisfactory Moderately Satisfactory .41 09 17-May-2017 Moderately Satisfactory Moderately Satisfactory .44 10 29-Nov-2017 Satisfactory Satisfactory .69 SECTORS AND THEMES Sectors Major Sector/Sector (%) Agriculture, Fishing and Forestry 86 Irrigation and Drainage 71 Public Administration - Agriculture, Fishing & Forestry 15 Water, Sanitation and Waste Management 14 Public Administration - Water, Sanitation and Waste 14 Management Themes Major Theme/ Theme (Level 2)/ Theme (Level 3) (%) Urban and Rural Development 20 Rural Development 20 Land Administration and Management 20 Environment and Natural Resource Management 80 Water Resource Management 80 Water Institutions, Policies and Reform 80 Page 3 of 46 The World Bank Regional Coordination for Improved Water Resources Mgt. & Capacity (P130801) ADM STAFF Role At Approval At ICR Vice President: Inger Andersen Hafez M. H. Ghanem Country Director: Jonathan D. Walters Asad Alam Senior Global Practice Director: Junaid Kamal Ahmad Guang Zhe Chen Practice Manager/Manager: Francis Ato Brown Carmen Nonay Project Team Leader: Claire Kfouri Qun Li ICR Co Author: Syeda Maheen Zehra Page 4 of 46 The World Bank Regional Coordination for Improved Water Resources Mgt. & Capacity (P130801) I. PROJECT CONTEXT AND DEVELOPMENT OBJECTIVES A. CONTEXT AT APPRAISAL Context 1. The scarcity of freshwater in most countries in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region is an increasingly acute problem, particularly as populations grow, rapid urbanization continues, and the pressure to shift water from agriculture (which on average consumes over 84 percent of the region’s water resources) to domestic and industrial uses increases. Fourteen out of twenty MENA nations are classified as being in water deficit, defined as less than 500 m3 of renewable water supply per capita per year. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change1 further reports an expected precipitation decrease over the next century by over 20 percent for large parts of the MENA region, a likely increase in the frequency and severity of droughts, and a reduction in groundwater recharge rates. 2. Furthermore, over 60 percent of the MENA region’s water supply flows across international borders, which further creates political tensions between communities, stakeholders, and countries and therefore necessitates equitable appropriation of available water among riparian communities. This underlines the need for regional cooperation in the Arab world’s water resources management. 3. The Arab Republic of Egypt is located in a dry climate zone where rainfall is scarce and the desert covers most of the land. Water shortage is the main constraint and a major limiting factor facing the implementation of the country’s future economic development plans (Allam 2007). Consequently, water managers in modern Egypt are faced with unprecedented water demand due to population pressure and alarming levels of water pollution. These challenges directly affect the health and livelihoods of many citizens (Luzi 2010). To address these challenges, a strong emphasis on improving the management of water resources based on well-prepared policies and a strengthened institutional arrangement is imperative. 4. Lack of information is another challenge of water resources management in Egypt and the region. The institutions depend on manual data collection which is carried out at source and with long intervals. The data sets tend to be unreliable or incomplete due to the cost of collection and temporal and spatial variability. The lack of accuracy in the measurement of water resources and uses significantly limits the capacity of decision makers and water managers to institute and operationalize sustainable water resources management. 5. To meet these challenges, the Regional Coordination on Improved Water Resources Management and Capacity Building Program was conceived. It was initially designed as an Adaptable Program supporting five countries— Jordan, Morocco, Lebanon, Tunisia, and Egypt. However, during the preparation stage it became clear that Egypt will need additional time to prepare for the project. As a result, it was decided that the program will be implemented in two phases—Phase 1, Adaptable Program Loan 1 (APL 1), supporting four countries and Phase 2, APL 2, supporting Egypt. The overall program was developed in close coordination with National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) scientists and affiliated academic partners. NASA made available the open-source Water Information System Platform2 (WISP) and provided technical assistance to participant countries. 6. This Implementation Completion and Results Report (ICR) is for APL 2 (herein the project). This project was primarily 1 IPCC Assessment Report of Working Group II: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability – Section 4.5.2. Impacts of Climate Change on Water Resources: A Global Perspective. 2 Details of WISP tools are provided in Annex 8. Page 5 of 46 The World Bank Regional Coordination for Improved Water Resources Mgt. & Capacity (P130801) implemented by the National Authority for Remote Sensing and Space Sciences (NARSS) in Egypt who coordinated and worked closely with relevant line ministries (including the Ministry of Water Resources and Irrigation [MWRI], Ministry of Agriculture and Land Reclamation [MALR], and Ministry of Environment, among others). 7. The project was designed to support the national development priorities of Egypt that aim to improve the sustainability of water resources. In this regard, the MWRI prepared an integrated water resource management plan3 in 2005 with the technical assistance of the World Bank. However, the absence of appropriate water information systems and related lack of technical capacity remained major constraints in its implementation. The project also complemented the Country Assistance Strategy 2012 and Country Partnership Framework (CPF) 2015–2019 goals and Egypt’s national priority of strengthening technical capacities in sustainable water resources management. 8. The Bank is extensively involved in several of Egypt’s water resources management-related research, projects, and reforms. This project, through the Bank’s convening power and established relationships with countries in the Middle East and North Africa, attempted to compound the positive development impacts of existing and ongoing initiatives in the water sector across MENA. By mobilizing international and regional expertise required to operationalize various WISP tools and validate output data on water availability, agricultural trends, and climate change impacts, among others, it was anticipated that the World Bank would assist the Government of Egypt in identifying scale-up opportunities for improved management of water resources. Theory of Change (Results Chain) 9. Water data collection in Egypt and the MENA region has traditionally been made through in situ (that is, in place) measurements of the major fluxes and storages (rain, stream flow, groundwater, snow, reservoir capacity, and so on). In situ data sets, however, tend to be unreliable or incomplete due to the cost of collection and temporal and spatial variability. Stakeholders in the water, agriculture, planning, and other sectors thus have limited access to reliable real-time information on important issues including water availability, evapotranspiration, agricultural water consumption, and the impact of climate change on water resources. 10. Quantitative measurements of the location, availability, quality, and current and future uses of local and regional water resources are critical for sound decision making and management across MENA. However, the high cost of in situ data collection and analysis; the lack of data management systems; and the non-standardized methods and protocols for data collection, management, and validation have obstructed the development and effective use of reliable local and regional water information systems. 11. Regarding the sector context described earlier, the project aimed at addressing the challenge by exploring many WISP tools that have been developed by commercial entities, academic centers, and institutions and are able to significantly enhance the frequency, relevance, consistency, and application of water data collection. WISP tools, which include remote sensing (RS) equipment (such as satellite receiving stations, digital map analysis software, and others), land surface models (LSMs), and land data assimilation systems, can operate without relying on ground- based data and thus are not limited by human and technical resources, geographic constraints, and political boundaries. Ground-based data that do exist should be used to validate the remotely sensed data and this will improve the results. The validation step is critical to convince users that the data produced by the tools can be used with a high degree of confidence. 12. These tools have been successfully used for planning and decision making for drought and flood management, groundwater flux, and evapotranspiration mapping, and in monitoring the impacts of climate change on hydrological 3 Arab Republic of Egypt, Ministry of Water Resources and Irrigation. 2005. National Water Resources Plan 2017. Page 6 of 46 The World Bank Regional Coordination for Improved Water Resources Mgt. & Capacity (P130801) environments. Specifically, WISP tools enable (a) monitoring of changes in water availability, including surface and groundwater storage, river runoff, and related land use changes retrospectively and in near real-time; (b) prediction of regional hydrological impacts of climate change scenarios; and (c) the creation of a forum for cooperation and data sharing among nations, including coordinated management of transboundary water resources, estimation of recharge rates of oversubscribed shared aquifers, and optimization of the response to droughts and floods, among other advantages. 13. Under this project, various WISP tools were transferred to and operationalized within the NARSS in Egypt. The NARSS in turn worked directly with the relevant line ministries (including the MWRI, MALR, and Ministry of Environment, among others) to ensure that the data and methodology are transferred to these entities for improved water resources and agricultural management. The WISP toolbox and associated technical assistance to the NARSS was custom configured to optimize local capacity in addressing high-priority water resource needs to ensure complementarity to existing systems and sustainability in the long term. 14. It was anticipated that the operationalization of new water management concepts and management system through applied advanced science technologies and decision-making information system will lead to a fully integrated water supply and demand management system, especially to deal with the serious water scarcity issues in Egypt. Figure 1: Schematic Overview of the Project’s Theory of Change (Results Chain) Page 7 of 46 The World Bank Regional Coordination for Improved Water Resources Mgt. & Capacity (P130801) Note: LIS = Land Information System; ET = Evapotranspiration. Project Development Objectives (PDOs) 15. Program Development Objective:4 The development objective of the Multi-Country Regional Coordination on Improved Water Resources Management and Capacity Building Program was to improve water resources and agricultural management and planning within and across beneficiary countries based on quantitative and spatial- based decision-making tools. 16. Project Development Objective:5 The development objective of the Second Phase of the Multi-Country Regional Coordination on Improved Water Resources Management and Capacity Building Program (APL 2) was to improve water resources and agricultural management and planning within and across Egypt on quantitative and spatial- based decision-making tools. 17. The Global Environment Facility (GEF) Global Objective: The GEF objective, as stated in the PAD, was to better manage local and regional water resources and reduce the threat of land degradation and climate change to vulnerable agricultural production systems and water resources in and across the project areas while developing options to address land-based pollution affecting the Mediterranean Sea. The project was in line with both (a) the long-term objective of the GEF’s International Waters Focal Area: “to foster international, multi-state cooperation on priority water concerns� and (b) the GEF’s Strategic Program for International Waters: “to balance overuse and conflicting uses of water resources in surface and groundwater basins that are transboundary in nature.� Key Expected Outcomes and Outcome Indicators 18. The higher-level objective of the program, as stated in the PAD, was to improve water resources and agricultural management and planning within Egypt and across beneficiary countries based on quantitative and spatial-based decision-making tools. The PDO (APL 2) was to improve water resources and agricultural management and planning in and across Egypt based on quantitative and spatial-based decision-making tools. The achievement of this objective was to be measured by the following outcome indicators: (a) Number of WISP systems operating within the NARSS; (b) Number of major water resources decisions made in at least three of four beneficiary countries on improved agricultural and land use management taking into consideration outputs of WISP tools; and (c) Regional project data portal developed and operational in all countries. Components 19. The project consists of three components described below. These components were to be implemented under Phase 1 (APL 1) in Lebanon, Jordan, Morocco, and Tunisia. According to the PAD, under Phase 2 of the program (APL 2), the same three components were to be implemented in Egypt. Component 1: Improved Local Water Resources and Agricultural Management (Estimated allocation for Egypt: 4 This was the original PDO identified for both phases of the program (APL 1 and APL 2) and remained unchanged in the agreement signed with the Government of Egypt. The same objective is included in the Data Sheet. It is also mentioned in the Project Appraisal Document (PAD) as a higher-level program objective. 5 It was mentioned as the project-level objective in the PAD and has the same PDO-level results indicators as the program. However, they specifically pertain to Egypt, as opposed to the development objectives of APL 1 which pertain to four countries. This project PDO forms the basis for the assessment of efficacy. Page 8 of 46 The World Bank Regional Coordination for Improved Water Resources Mgt. & Capacity (P130801) US$745,000, actual disbursement: US$675,000) 20. Under this component, focus was on improving local water resources and agricultural management. Hence, investments were made on two subcomponents. One of them focused on the completion of technical studies such as (a) Water Balance Study - Land Information System (LIS) Modeling Study; (b) Ground Water Study; (c) ET Modeling Study; and (d) Crop Mapping and Irrigation Optimization Modeling Study. The second subcomponent was focused on installing and operationalizing WISP tools in relevant departments. Both subcomponents have been fully completed and the following outputs have been achieved: • Operationalized various WISP tools, validated output data, and compiled past and current water conditions to inform improved water policy decisions; • Generated crop, irrigation, and ET maps and estimates of irrigation water requirements and water use for large- scale agricultural productivity assessments and planning; • Completed mapping of areas of groundwater natural discharge (including potential areas where groundwater will be naturally discharged) in a large groundwater aquifer for the future land reclamation development program. • Estimated groundwater depletion and recharge rates and areas in the Western Desert to help decision makers plan better for development projects (locations and extent); and • Evaluated potential increases and decreases in irrigation water requirements for short- and long-term climate conditions. Component 2: Capacity Building and Project Management (Estimated allocation for Egypt: US$305,000, actual disbursement: US$365,000) 21. This component focused primarily on capacity building and investments were made on various advanced remote sensing technical trainings for national experts from the implementing agency and end user agencies under groundwater, crop and irrigation optimization, ETWatch, and LIS scientific studies. The technical capacity of the NARSS and related end-user line ministries has been significantly enhanced. About 128 NARSS and stakeholder staff and experts have been trained on the use of WISP tools. Component 3: Regional Integration and Cooperation (Estimated allocation for Egypt: US$0, actual disbursement: US$10,000) 22. This component was primarily implemented under APL 1 by the Arab Water Council (AWC). However, in Egypt investment under this component was made on the following activities: (a) participation in regional and international workshops, (b) development of a national online portal containing local and national results generated from the use of WISP tools, and (c) regional dissemination of data generated through WISP tools. B. SIGNIFICANT CHANGES DURING IMPLEMENTATION (IF APPLICABLE) Revised PDOs and Outcome Targets 23. The PDO was not changed during project implementation. Revised PDO Indicators 24. The PDO indicators were not changed in substance. However, some changes were made to the Results Framework (RF) to reflect the agreements reached during the midterm review (MTR) mission. The reason for these changes was that while the original RF was primarily the same as that of APL 1 which was to be implemented in four countries with the AWC as a regional coordinator, APL 2 was focused on one country. Therefore, the wording of PDO indicators 2 and 3 was revised as per the specific context of Egypt. • PDO Indicator 2: It was changed from “Number of major water resources decisions made in at least three of Page 9 of 46 The World Bank Regional Coordination for Improved Water Resources Mgt. & Capacity (P130801) four beneficiary countries on improved agricultural and land use management taking into consideration outputs of WISP tools (target value of 3)� to “Number of major water resources decisions made on improved agricultural and land use management taking into consideration outputs of WISP tools (target value of 1).� • PDO Indicator 3: It was changed from “Regional project data portal developed and operational in all countries.� to “Project portal in operation.� Revised Components 25. The components were not changed in concept. The content was customized to suit the specific needs as well as the available technological infrastructure and capacities of institutions in Egypt. The activities in Component 1 originally included a flood monitoring study which was replaced by the Ground Water Modeling Study to reflect the government’s development priorities related to the National Land Reclamation Project around the Nubian Sandstone aquifer. The quality and sustainability of this aquifer is at risk due to a sharp increase in abstractions for groundwater- based land reclamation projects, notably in the western fringes of the Nile Delta. It is therefore important to conduct an advanced groundwater assessment study for the decision makers and program designers to understand the available groundwater amount/storage, the groundwater levels in a large-scale aquifer area, the possible water rechargeable areas, and so on, to identify and select the project development sites (for example, select the irrigation development areas) and establish the related groundwater management system. Other Changes 26. The revised RF increased the number of intermediate outcome indicators and related target values under Components 1 and 2 to better measure the specific outcomes for each modeling study, including (a) Water Balance Study – LIS Modeling Study; (b) Ground Water Study; (c) ET Modeling Study; and (d) Crop Mapping and Irrigation Optimization Modeling Study; and monitor the outcome related to identified end users and progress of capacity- building activities. Another intermediate outcome indicator, “Scholarships for advanced study in environmental science, RS techniques and/or other related subjects selected,� was dropped as it was not possible to achieve this output through financing available for Egypt. 27. In addition to the revision of the RF, the following changes were made at the time of restructuring: a) Extension of the closing date by 12 months from November 30, 2016, to November 30, 2017; b) Revision to the disbursement estimates plan to reflect the actual disbursements up till now and add disbursement projections based on the extended lifetime of the project; and c) Adjustments in cost allocation to components. Rationale for Changes and Their Implication on the Original Theory of Change 28. Rationale for Extension: The project was approved on July 17, 2012, and became effective on August 28, 2012. The initial phase of its implementation was significantly affected by delays mainly owing to external factors. The key contributing factor for the delay was a change in the U.S. Financial Aid Policy to Egypt, which caused the NASA team to stop all technical assistance activities provided to Egypt from October 2013 until late 2015. This resulted in serious delays in the start of all implementation activities and transfer of software from NASA. The situation improved in late 2015 when NASA provided the LIS software to the NARSS and the agreement between the U. S. Agency for International Development (USAID)/NASA team and the country Project Management Unit (PMU)/NARSS was finally reached in December 2015, allowing country PMUs to work directly with U.S. universities through the GEF grant instead of working with the NASA team through USAID’s budget support. There was also some delay caused by internal staffing changes at the NARSS; the PMU manager was replaced during project implementation. Page 10 of 46 The World Bank Regional Coordination for Improved Water Resources Mgt. & Capacity (P130801) 29. As described above, the project has had little more than a year of actual implementation, which is too short to show real results even for a small TA project. Although 2016 was a year when the implementation significantly picked up on all fronts, including most of the studies and development of the portal and WISP tools, the results could not be fully achieved due to lack of implementation time. Closure of the project at its actual closing date (November 30, 2016) would have reduced the expected benefit of the project, achievement of its PDOs, and expected targets. Therefore, the project needed extra time to make up for the loss of almost two years of implementation to keep the momentum reached in the year 2016. The project was therefore extended by 12 months to allow the following activities to take place: • Completion of the remaining activities under the four important modeling studies to make the WISP tools/systems fully operational in Egypt; • Verification and improvement of the preliminary results of the groundwater, ET, and crop/irrigation optimization studies for improving irrigation and agricultural management; • Improvement of the resolution of the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellite imagery to improve information for better decision making. It allowed to run the models across the entire Western and Eastern Desert areas and along the Nile River for the period of 2002–2016, especially the last three years during which heavy flooding events were witnessed; • Implementation of the remaining capacity-building activities, like the training program for usage of the LIS software and hardware to use this tool effectively. It is to be noted that this software was only provided to Egypt and Morocco under a related regional project, and presented a unique chance for Egypt to move its technology ahead. An agreement has been reached to conduct advanced training at John Hopkins University (JHU) in this area. • Dissemination of all scientific results achieved from each modeling study to end users/technical line ministries for application in their operations and promotion of more informed decision making for improved water and agricultural management and climate change risk resilience in Egypt. 30. The above activities were critical for the theory of change and could not have been implemented if the project was not extended. 31. Rationale for changes in the RF: As stated earlier, the main reason for few modifications in the RF, which was initially focused on four countries, was to ensure that objectives and indicators are one country (Egypt) specific. Page 11 of 46 The World Bank Regional Coordination for Improved Water Resources Mgt. & Capacity (P130801) II. OUTCOME A. RELEVANCE OF PDOs 32. At the time of appraisal, the PDO was relevant to the MENA regional development strategies, Egypt Country Assistance Strategy 2012 Interim Paper, and the national development priorities that were aiming to improve the sustainability of water resources. This project was part of the World Bank’s Arab World Initiative (AWI), which emphasizes cooperative regional solutions to major challenges such as water resources management, food security, and climate change nexus. The project PDO is still consistent with the Egypt CPF 2015–2019 goals that highlight three specific components: “(a) institutional building and capacity enhancement for water resource management; (b) sustainable water and land development; and (c) knowledge and innovation systems for water resource management.� The PDO is directly related to the following Egyptian national priorities stipulated in the Egypt Sustainable Development Strategy 2030: “(a) Rational and sustainable management of the water resources to support the economy, increase competitiveness, and provide new job opportunities and (b) Implementation of an institutional capacity building program to enhance the administrative and technical aspects of personnel in the agencies entrusted with water resources management.� 33. It is also consistent with the World Bank’s 2010 Implementation Progress Report of the 2004 Water Resources Sector Strategy, Sustaining Water for All in a Changing Climate. One of the core areas of this strategy is “Technological advances will present new opportunities to build client countries’ capacity for results-based decision-making.� The World Bank aims to facilitate clients’ access to and integration of technologies (for example, RS, early flood warning) in new projects. In addition, the PDO is aligned with the new MNA Regional Water Security Initiative (RWSI), which was initiated by the Water Global Practice recently and broadly disseminated at the Arab Water Forum in November 2017 in Cairo. The RWSI is a programmatic approach with two broad pillars: (a) “increasing access to and sharing of technologies and policy options and (b) building consensus for action on water security in MENA.� This project contributed to both pillars of the RWSI as it seeks to (a) enhance technical capacity and sharing of information and (b) support the development of a regional geospatial database on water that is hosted at the League of Arab States. Assessment of Relevance of PDOs and Rating 34. With the alignment of the PDO to main areas of engagement of the CPF and its relevance to Egypt’s national water resources management-related priorities, the relevance of the PDO is rated as High. B. ACHIEVEMENT OF PDOs (EFFICACY) 35. The project achieved its main development objectives. Given that the project met or exceeded all the PDO outcome and intermediate outcome indicators (as presented in the RF in Annex 1), the PDO is assessed as substantially achieved. Page 12 of 46 The World Bank Regional Coordination for Improved Water Resources Mgt. & Capacity (P130801) Assessment of Achievement of Each Objective/Outcome 36. PDO Indicator 1: Number of WISP systems operating - Target value has been fully achieved and surpassed by integrating three RS systems at NARSS (300 percent of the target value at PAD). Systems installed and operational are (a) GW monitoring with GRACE, (b) ETWatch System, and (c) NASA-LIS. The details are provided below: • The originally intended LIS, which was considered as the WISP core as designed at PAD, has been installed and is operational in the NARSS. Following the advanced LIS workshop, the PMU—along with the NARSS—assigned tasks to four different expert groups, including the end users and partners from the MWRI, MALR, Egyptian Meteorological Agency (EMA), and universities, to use the LIS in relevant and important applications. All groups completed their work and presented their findings in the final dissemination workshop at the Arab Water Forum on November 28, 2017. The groups reported the importance of the LIS as a comprehensive system that ingests all the publicly produced RS data and produces very important and relevant information for water resources and agriculture activities. To complement the LIS, a comprehensive Crop Mapping/Irrigation Optimization Modeling Study was undertaken. Results from this study significantly contributed in generating the water productivity distribution/maps that are essential to modify the crop pattern in Egypt for sustainable irrigation management. • The ETWatch System, independent from the LIS, is another system that was installed and is operational in the NARSS. This system has been able to measure the ET from space and produce maps for excess water usage in agriculture activities. This system has produced the daily, monthly, and yearly ET maps. The data generated in the project area were successfully validated. To maximize the results, the NARSS has worked closely with the MWRI through an agreement with the Water Management Research Institute (WMRI), an MWRI affiliate. It is anticipated that for national-level application of the ETWatch System, the WMRI will assist the MWRI in (a) attaining the necessary field data for accurate calibration by the ETWatch System, (b) validating its results, and (c) developing the application plan of ET monitoring and management for the MWRI. This would enable the decision makers at the MWRI to develop technically informed policies and plans for water conservation and efficient water resource management. • Groundwater monitoring using GRACE data is the third system which is well established in the NARSS. This system has been used to map the depletion and recharge areas and rates across the NSAS. The NARSS Ground Water Team successfully processed the GRACE data obtained by using NASA's GRACE satellites. In this region, groundwater resources are severely scarce and depleted, which makes regular monitoring of changes in aquifer levels a significant requirement. The availability of this satellite-based system in Egypt will benefit the whole region in monitoring the aquifer levels, as the region moves to relying on technological innovations for WRM. In Egypt, such a system will be of great importance to the decision makers and project implementation agencies who have been working on the 1.5 million feddan land reclamation program under the government’s strategic development plan. 37. In addition, the project embarked upon an extensive capacity-building program in collaboration with NASA, John Hopkins University, Wisconsin University, and the Institute of Remote Sensing and Digital Earth and Chinese Academy of Sciences (RADI/CAS). The program targeted staff from the NARSS, line ministries, and all other sector stakeholders through national and international trainings and created a strong cadre of experts, fully capable of successfully operationalizing the WISP systems. 38. PDO Indicator 2: Number of major water resources decisions made on improved agricultural and land use management taking into consideration outputs of WISP tools - This is the key outcome of the project as it will have Page 13 of 46 The World Bank Regional Coordination for Improved Water Resources Mgt. & Capacity (P130801) long-term implications for the planning and management of water resources and land reclamation. The project helped inform two key decisions, thus exceeding the revised target value. These included (a) the decision on water management systems taken by the MWRI to scale up the ETWatch System to be used at the national level as the water accounting and allocation tool and (b) the decision by the MWRI to use the findings of the GW study for the technical design and implementation of the mega national project of reclaiming 1.5 million feddan. The details are as follows: a) The MWRI has taken a key policy decision to scale up the ETWatch monitoring system to cover the whole country based on demonstrated efficacy and efficiency of the system in the project pilot area of Zankaloun. To implement this decision, the MWRI has established a Water Accounting Unit to further improve the application of the system. The MWRI has entered into an agreement with the China World Bank Group Partnership Facility to enhance the capacity of this unit for scaling up this system at the national level. Under this agreement, staff from the MWRI and NARSS will go through rigorous hands-on training programs.6 A formal letter was issued by the minister of the MWRI to confirm this decision. b) The MWRI has decided to use the findings of both groundwater monitoring using GRACE and the mapping of groundwater discharge areas as the primary data and information source for future planning of their land reclamation projects in collaboration with NARSS. For this purpose, MWRI fully participated in all training programs and related research activities. It is important to note that the ground water modeling was customized to accommodate governmental priorities for land reclamation in the Nile Basin. The Government of Egypt has a national goal of reclaiming 4.5 million feddan (1,890,000 hectares) by 2030. It is anticipated that the proper availability of scientific data on ground water will facilitate the achievement of this goal in an environmentally appropriate manner. 39. PDO Indicator 3: Project portal in operation - This target was achieved by constructing a documentary page that includes all training materials, reports, and publications. Moreover, this page is linked to a geoportal on which almost all the generated data have been uploaded to present geographically relevant views for users. All three key stakeholders, the NARSS, MWRI, and MALR, agree that this geoportal will continue to function in the future to hold all seasonal LIS forecasting, ETWatch maps, seasonal crop mapping, and yearly groundwater status. 40. Achievement of the GEF Global Objective: Based on the project achievements discussed above, the project contributed to the achievement of the GEO, that is, to better manage local and regional water resources and reduce the threat of land degradation and climate change to vulnerable agricultural production systems and water resources in and across the project areas. The project contributed to this through (a) the development of the country’s crop/irrigation and ET mapping for better measurement, monitoring, and management of irrigation water, to reduce inefficient water use and agriculture water consumptions at the irrigation district and on-farm levels, which will increase freshwater flows and reduce agricultural nonpoint pollutions entering the Mediterranean Sea; (b) the establishment of the measurement and monitoring system for flood forecasting and drought resilience, with improved adaptation capacity to extreme events for all beneficiaries; (c) the CC impact study on water and agriculture production, which improved land degradation and enhanced climate-smart agriculture production; and (d) further 6 MWRI and NARSS experts received further hands-on training through ET training workshops in January and April 2018. The vice minister and the director of the Irrigation Department of the MWRI participated in a high-level government official study tour to exchange knowledge and Chinese experiences on how to apply the new water management concept and innovative technologies on ET monitoring and management to the national agriculture water saving program at the irrigation district and farm levels on the field (including comprehensive water saving technologies and operation and maintenance of the irrigation system and automatic volumetric water charge system through the WUA at the farm level). Page 14 of 46 The World Bank Regional Coordination for Improved Water Resources Mgt. & Capacity (P130801) strengthening of regional integration and cooperation with the established regional project database/platform, which supported decision making and planning in the country. Justification of Overall Efficacy Rating 41. Given the full achievement of the targets set out in the PDO indicators, and the almost full achievement of the intermediate indicators, the overall efficacy can be rated as Substantial.7 C. EFFICIENCY 42. There was no project efficiency analysis at project appraisal. The project, like all technical assistance and engineering projects, was not amenable to standard quantifiable rate of return or cost-benefit analysis, in part because the benefits are at least partially speculative. In this case, however, some outcomes of the project dwarf the very small cost of the project. It is evident from the following examples. • Data sharing has also contributed to reduced costs and obtaining better data. In Egypt, multiple agencies collect similar data, often not knowing that the other agencies are collecting the same data. Moreover, when one agency wants to do an assessment, it often starts from the beginning without first talking to the other agencies to find out what data they already have. The amount of wasted resources expended in this manner cannot be underestimated. This project addresses this challenge through the establishment of the project portal, which will contain all water- and irrigation-related data generated through new technologies and will be accessible to end users at the MWRI and MALR. • As per the analytical work carried out by the World Bank (Water in the Arab Countries), the MWRI spends 85 percent of its annual budget (approximately LE 1,218,945,000) on irrigation. Almost 10 percent of this amount (LE 121,894,500) is spent on terrestrial investigation; the SUV caravans across the desert to monitor the few observation wells which existed and teams walk through forests to assess dryness of vegetation or through farmland to assess drought impacts or water usage. However, RS-based tools can significantly reduce the cost of data collection and improve accuracy. It is anticipated that the cost of data collection in an integrated and efficient manner through application programs operationalized by the project would save approximately LE 25 million annually. • As mentioned earlier, the findings of the GW study will be used for the planning of future reclamation projects that will be prepared under the National Reclamation Program. The Government of Egypt considers this program as their national priority. The estimated cost of this endeavor is LE 6 billion (approximately US$400 million) and its goal is to reduce poverty and enhance food and nutrition security in rural areas through remunerative, sustainable, and resilient livelihoods. More specifically, the program aims to increase agricultural area by an estimated 35 percent through horizontal expansion (goal of the national Agricultural Policy), which in turn will result in major economic benefits for communities in the Nile Basin. In addition, it is anticipated that the program will also increase the habitable desert area by 20 percent, hence reducing the pressure of population density on the Nile Basin. 7The original RF referred to the whole program since PDO Indicator 2 referred to ‘Decisions made in at least three of the four beneficiary countries’ whereas the project was only in Egypt. Thus, a split evaluation for reduction in target from three to one was not applied. However, even if we consider applying, there will not be any impact on the overall outcome rating since the target was reduced when only 40 percent was disbursed. After assigning a Moderately Satisfactory rating before restructuring and Satisfactory rating post restructuring, the overall rating will be Satisfactory (~4.6). Page 15 of 46 The World Bank Regional Coordination for Improved Water Resources Mgt. & Capacity (P130801) 43. The combination of the above factors presents a strong case for the efficiency and economy the project has provided despite of its relatively small cost. 44. The administrative efficiency of the project is rated as Satisfactory since despite significant initial delays, it was extended by only one year. Assessment of Efficiency and Rating 45. Efficiency has been rated Substantial based on expected economic benefits and satisfactory project administrative efficiency. D. JUSTIFICATION OF OVERALL OUTCOME RATING 46. Based on the abovementioned assessment and ratings—relevance of the PDO rated as High, efficacy of the PDO achievement rated as Substantial, and efficiency of the project rated as Substantial—the overall outcome rating of the project is rated as Satisfactory. E. OTHER OUTCOMES AND IMPACTS (IF ANY) Institutional Strengthening 47. Through various advanced RS technical trainings for national experts from the RS and end user agencies under groundwater, crop mapping and irrigation optimization, ETWatch, and LIS scientific studies, institutional and technical capacities have been significantly enhanced in the NARSS and related end user line ministries. In addition, interaction with international experts and participation in regional and international training programs also contributed to this end. 48. The NARSS has developed a partnership with the CAS, facilitated by the World Bank, which provided a two-month long hands-on training program in China on ETWatch System for scientists and researchers from the NARSS, MWRI, and MALR. This hands-on training contributed significantly in institutional development. 49. The NARSS has become the premiere capacity-building institution on RS in Egypt and across the region. The NARSS continues to work closely with the MWRI, after project completion, on ETWatch System’s optimal operationalization and related capacity building through the China-World Bank Partnership Facility (CWPF) project, Regional Coordination on Improved Agriculture Water Management by Applying ET Monitoring and Management System. At the regional level, the NARSS will be working closely with the AWC under the CWPF project by providing technical assistance to the council in implementing regional capacity-building activities related to the ETWatch System, which is a major component of the AWC’s technical role in that project. Poverty Reduction and Shared Prosperity 50. Although the project was not targeting having an impact on poverty, improving the water monitoring process through new sources of information and WISP models to better characterize water resources conditions is crucial Page 16 of 46 The World Bank Regional Coordination for Improved Water Resources Mgt. & Capacity (P130801) for implementing the countries’ National Water Strategies and the Green Economy Plans that are widely focused on sustainable socioeconomic development at the country level. In addition, the Ground Water Modeling Study is expected to contribute towards the future planning of the National Land Reclamation Program, that aims to improve the quality of life for communities through increase in agriculture production, improved water and food security, job creation, economic development, and poverty reduction. Other Unintended Outcomes and Impacts 51. After the successful training workshop on the NASA-LIS, the chairman of the Environment and Climate Change Research Institute (ECCRI) contacted the NARSS to continue cooperation on using the NASA-LIS for studying climate change impacts, irrigation needs, and the hydrological cycle and building on the promising results that were generated through the LIS model in the delta and the valley. They were given access to the LIS server (High Performance Computing [HPC]) to run their model in collaboration with NARSS staff. 52. The head of the Nile Water Institute also contacted the NARSS to access the NASA-LIS as the application of the NASA-LIS routing algorithms will be of great potential in hydrology and water balance monitoring in the Nile Basin where measurement devices are not present or failed to capture the necessary data. 53. To maximize the use of the LIS and ETWatch System, the NARSS has agreed to host a center of excellence for climate change in collaboration with the Ministry of Environment Affairs. A core funding of US$1 million has been allocated by the NARSS in this regard. 54. Given the success of the two phases of the GEF-World Bank Regional Coordination on Improved Water Resources Management and Capacity Building Program, a follow-up training program was launched in 2017. The new CWPF brings together the AWC, the PMUs/line ministries in the same five NENA/MENA countries, and the same Chinese experts from the CAS who collaborated on the World Bank-GEF team project. The aim of the CWPF is to continue the transfer and adaptation of cutting-edge technologies for water management. Page 17 of 46 The World Bank Regional Coordination for Improved Water Resources Mgt. & Capacity (P130801) III. KEY FACTORS THAT AFFECTED IMPLEMENTATION AND OUTCOME A. KEY FACTORS DURING PREPARATION 55. Consistency of technical analysis. The project’s design was primarily a sequel of APL 1. The successful achievements of APL 1 and lessons learned from it greatly helped the team to put together a sound technical analysis grounded in the specific geo-sectoral context of Egypt. Although its design and implementation replicated APL 1, the specific technical inputs for each component were customized as per country requirements and capacities. The project further incorporated specific concepts and approaches introduced and piloted by APL 1. To help clients in Egypt adopt these new concepts, approaches, and methods and ultimately change their water use and water management behavior, the project further incorporated lessons from APL 1 and designed a flexible yet intensive and focused capacity building and institutional strengthening program. 56. Realistic objectives and design. In line with the high relevance of the PDO with Egypt’s development priorities as well as with the Country Assistance Strategy 2012 Interim Paper and CPF 2015–2019, the objective selected for this project is clear and well-focused to address the sector challenges the country is facing. Further, the project designed its structure by aligning the components with the objectives. 57. Results Framework. The RF was the same as for APL 1 and included a systematic and methodological breakdown of the underlying theory of change. However, retaining the same RF was an oversight on the part of the task team, as the project was to be implemented in one country instead of four. Therefore, changes were made after the MTR in PDO-level indicators and target values of intermediate outcome indicators to improve the alignment of intermediate results indicators for realistic measurement of the PDO. The RF included several intermediate result indicators disaggregated by component, which sought to measure key aspects contributing to the outcome indicator. Despite that level of detail, the indicators were designed to be simple and realistic. 58. Readiness for implementation. Implementation arrangements followed lessons from APL 1, in which there was lack of clarity in roles and responsibilities of implementing partners. In the case of this project, roles and responsibilities of each stakeholder were clearly defined. The WISP toolbox and associated technical assistance to the NARSS was custom configured to optimize local capacity in addressing high-priority water resource needs. WISP tools were also tailored to adapt to existing RS infrastructure and staff capacities within the NARSS to ensure complementarity to existing systems and sustainability in the long term. 59. Adequacy of risk assessment. The identification of risks to the project and its rating as Medium-Low was adequate. The identified project risks were mainly around anticipated unfamiliarity with WISP tools as well as Bank procurement and financial management (FM) standards. The project team meticulously designed mitigation measures with the client that included an extensive capacity building and institutional strengthening program. B. KEY FACTORS DURING IMPLEMENTATION 60. Implementation arrangements and the government’s commitment. A project implementation unit was established at the NARSS consisting of technical groups, management office, loan office, and consultation expert groups to ensure smooth implementation in line with World Bank regulations as well as national laws and regulations. The NARSS was a strategic choice instead of the MWRI because there are other line ministries and departments that are key stakeholders in water resources management, and the NARSS as a central technical institute is in a perfect position to ensure the coordination among key line ministries. The project built on this and Page 18 of 46 The World Bank Regional Coordination for Improved Water Resources Mgt. & Capacity (P130801) set up elaborate coordination and participation mechanisms for all relevant stakeholders. 61. Given the relevance of the project’s design and objectives to the overall government agenda of water resources management, and the success and impact of APL 1, commitment and leadership were high from the beginning and continued throughout project implementation. This commitment and leadership were evident through the attention the project received at all levels of the government. 62. Bottlenecks. The project started slowly but it picked up pace in 2015 after interactions started with NASA. The real bottleneck was a temporary change in U.S. Financial Aid Policy to Egypt that led to NASA stopping all TA activities provided to Egypt since October 2013, including the transfer of key software for the LIS although the software usage agreement for the LIS was signed by the Egyptian Government in 2013. This resulted in serious delays for all activities related to and depending on the transfer of the LIS. This prompted the NARSS to work on finding alternative options to implement project activities and acquire the needed software. 63. Another issue was the lack of familiarity, on the part of the PMU, with the Bank’s operational policies and procedures, which delayed the process of procurement and disbursement and slowed implementation progress (especially at the early stage). To address this issue, the Bank organized several regional and country training workshops and hands-on trainings on fiduciary and project monitoring and evaluation (M&E) aspects, especially on problem solving, which improved the PMU manager’s and staff’s project management capacity and implementation progress. 64. The task team, however, carried out supervision missions during this difficult period and candidly recorded the PDO and IP rating as unsatisfactory throughout that period. 65. The situation improved in late 2015 when NASA provided the LIS software to the NARSS and the agreement between the USAID/NASA team and the country PMU/NARSS was finally reached in December 2015, allowing country PMUs to work with the U.S. universities through the GEF grant directly instead of working with the NASA team through the USAID’s budget support. In addition, the PMU was allowed to work with other international RS agencies, with a separate technical team on the LIS Modeling Study in the NARSS. There was also some delay caused by internal staffing changes at the NARSS; the PMU manager was replaced during project implementation. However, when NASA reinitiated its engagement with the Egypt PMU, the implementation progressed rapidly in 2016 resulting into improvements in project ratings. Keeping in view this progress, the project completion date was extended for a year. 66. Mid-term Review and Restructuring. At the MTR, two PDO indicators and several intermediate outcome indicators were modified to account for progress on actual investments made and results achieved on completion. These changes were adjustments to align the project with a specific country context. In addition, the project was extended for a year to address the issues resulting from initial implementation delays. 67. Final implementation progress. Notwithstanding the initial delay, the final review of the overall project implementation revealed that by the closing date all expected project activities and output results by component have been fully completed and/or exceeded. The project’s last supervision mission in November 2017 noted that implementation of Component 1 (Improved Local Water Resources and Agricultural Management (including all the LIS, ET, groundwater, and crop/irrigation optimization modeling studies) has been fully completed, and the expected WISP tools are fully installed and operational in Egypt. A project dissemination session was arranged at the Arab Water Forum for all participants from Middle East and North Africa countries, where in all project Page 19 of 46 The World Bank Regional Coordination for Improved Water Resources Mgt. & Capacity (P130801) scientific results and their impacts on improved water resources management under the LIS, ET, groundwater, and crop/irrigation optimization studies were presented and discussed among the RS experts and end user decision makers from various countries. All expected capacity-building and project management activities planned under Component 2 (Capacity Building and Project Management) were also fully completed. The portal is operational at the NARSS. All necessary equipment has been installed and is operational in the implementing agencies. Page 20 of 46 The World Bank Regional Coordination for Improved Water Resources Mgt. & Capacity (P130801) IV. BANK PERFORMANCE, COMPLIANCE ISSUES, AND RISK TO DEVELOPMENT OUTCOME A. QUALITY OF MONITORING AND EVALUATION (M&E) M&E Design 68. The project followed a clearly structured theory of change, outlining how project activities of each component would contribute to achieving the PDO. A comprehensive M&E framework was set up to keep track of implementation progress of all project activities. However, one key design issue was that the project retained the RF of APL 1. As a result, PDO indicators were not specified for Egypt. This issue was resolved at the time of MTR. Supervision was carried out by the Bank almost on a regular basis, where a comprehensive financial and physical progress report was requested to be submitted by the implementing agency. Information on physical and financial progress for all activities was later assessed and reported based on the content of these reports. M&E Implementation 69. The implementation of the M&E framework was adequate and effective and clearly showed that working closely with end users allowed the PMU to know better their needs, assess their weakness and strengths, and identify the gaps and ways for improving capacity building. The input data from RS and stakeholder’s feedback during the local workshops helped fine-tuning the national indicators and tailoring the project’s activities to meet the end users’ demands. M&E Utilization 70. The utilization of the M&E results contributed to identifying key implementation issues, recommending adequate remedial actions, and enhancing the physical and the financial implementation progress. All indicators were achieved, and some were exceeded, based on the expected targets identified and presented in the RF. Justification of Overall Rating of Quality of M&E 71. Considering the thoroughly designed, implemented, and utilized M&E framework, the overall rating of quality of M&E is Substantial. B. ENVIRONMENTAL, SOCIAL, AND FIDUCIARY COMPLIANCE 72. Safeguards: The project was not expected to have any adverse environment or social impacts as it would introduce RS software/hardware and would provide capacity building and technical assistance needed to operationalize these tools. The project was categorized as Environmental Category C, and no safeguard policy was triggered. Since the PDO and the project scope remained unchanged, no change in the environmental category was made during project implementation. The Bank team monitored safeguards compliance during regular supervision missions. Project interventions had been applied for better use of water resources and higher adaptive capacity to climate change, which will have higher-level positive environmental impacts in the participating countries. At completion, the project had showed positive social benefits, particularly for local stakeholders, who depend on reliable water data for irrigation management, drought and flood risk management, among others. 73. Financial Management: FM system including reporting and auditing arrangements was adequate and satisfactory to the Bank. The Bank financial management specialists (FMSs) were based in the country offices, so the Bank was able to provide timely and efficient support to the PMU. Supervision of FM arrangements was carried out semi-annually as part Page 21 of 46 The World Bank Regional Coordination for Improved Water Resources Mgt. & Capacity (P130801) of the project supervision missions. All audits were fulfilled according to the World Bank rules and procedures and had unqualified opinions. 74. Procurement: All procurement planning and procedures followed the Bank policies. Procurement reports were updated and submitted to the Bank after each supervision mission. Procurement supervision was carried out on a timely basis as required by the client. The Bank procurement specialists were based in the country offices, so the Bank was able to provide timely and efficient support to the PMU. 75. Disbursement: All disbursement procedures were in compliance with the Bank’s client connection policies and were presented in a physical and financial progress report that was updated and submitted to the Bank after each supervision mission. Almost all the grant funds were fully disbursed by the project closing date, reflecting a remarkable turnaround from the MTR period, with a minor unused balance (5 percent of the total GEF grant) due largely to exchange rate fluctuations in Egypt. At project completion, disbursements reached 95 percent of the total TF amount due to the significant depreciation of the local currency. The actual costs completed in local currency were much more than the expected amount. C. BANK PERFORMANCE Quality at Entry 76. The World Bank teams incorporated relevant lessons from APL 1 in the design of the project and ensured that the objectives were fully aligned with the priorities highlighted in strategic documents, namely the Country Assistance Strategy 2012 and CPF 2015–2019. The project design was further aligned with key government priorities for water resources management. State-of-the-art technologies and management systems were integrated into the project concept and design. The World Bank ensured that a team of specialists was mobilized to address all relevant project aspects, including technical and fiduciary dimensions. The M&E framework was the same as that of APL 1 at the appraisal. 77. Measures to mitigate the project’s moderate-to-low-rated stakeholder risk were incorporated into the project design that combined national- and international-level capacity building. Through the implementation support structure, the well-designed RF, and the thorough M&E system, the World Bank team was able to closely monitor implementation progress and provide targeted support on relevant issues where needed. Quality of Supervision 78. Initially the Bank implementation support focused, on overcoming delays, inconsistencies, and expediting administrative steps to keep up with the implementation schedule. In addition, the Bank team remained proactive during the time when project implementation came to a literal halt, due to changes in U.S. policy, and reached out to other development partners. This facilitated in a partnership between the NARSS and CAS. When implementation picked up, the task team provided timely and effective advice to counterparts, who ensured implementation of the project by quickly addressing issues as they arose. Advice from the World Bank teams focused on the entirety of water resources management. The World Bank undertook an MTR, which identified the adjustments needed for the project to achieve its outcome. Page 22 of 46 The World Bank Regional Coordination for Improved Water Resources Mgt. & Capacity (P130801) 79. The World Bank provided ongoing implementation support on fiduciary issues during project implementation. It provided advice to counterparts on satisfactory compliance with World Bank policies on procurement and FM. Project ratings in the Implementation Status and Results Reports were candid. Progress toward achievement of the PDO gradually approached a Satisfactory rating at closing. The aide memoires described the issues encountered in sufficient detail, and recommendations to address issues were agreed with the implementing agencies. Urgent issues were promptly brought to management attention. 80. The World Bank’s supervision missions ensured that effective mechanisms for quality control and compliance with World Bank requirements were in place. The World Bank’s multidisciplinary teams (with skills in FM, procurement, institutional development, economics, project evaluation, and just-in-time technical expertise) reviewed all relevant documents before, during, and after supervision missions. Justification of Overall Rating of Bank Performance 81. Based on the quality of World Bank performance at entry and at supervision, the overall rating of World Bank performance is Satisfactory. D.RISK TO DEVELOPMENT OUTCOME 82. The major risk, that was identified at completion, is the capacity of NARSS for a national level rollout of the WISP tools. Since it will require substantial financial resources and large-scale capacity enhancement. On part of the government, the NARSS has developed the follow-up actions to address this concern and to ensure the sustainability of the project outcome and outputs. A center of excellence for operationalized services based on earth observation will be established in the NARSS. This center of excellence will provide the end users and stakeholders the updated information extracted from the RS data. The core of the center of excellence will be the ETWatch System and provide monthly and seasonal information on ET accounts all over Egypt to the MWRI. The LIS will also be operationalized and is intended to be used as a seasonal weather forecasting engine to fill the gap between daily weather forecasting (as done by the EMA) and climate forecasting (which is carried out by many research institutes). The partnership established with the CAS through the CWPF, is also an effort to enhance and sustain the use of technologies, that were introduced by the project, and related technical capacity. In light of the above, the overall project risk was rated as Moderate. Page 23 of 46 The World Bank Regional Coordination for Improved Water Resources Mgt. & Capacity (P130801) V. LESSONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS 1. Linking research to practice is key for development effectiveness. The science research is about both generation and dissemination of information. Despite this, disseminating research findings and their links to practice have often been an afterthought in several public-funded research institutes. As a result, the findings are seldom communicated to relevant line ministries and even if the information is provided it doesn’t enable the implementers to use that information for planning and development. This project broke this barrier; systematic coordination and cooperation between the NARSS and line ministries was facilitated to ensure that the information generated through research and the expertise developed through inclusive capacity building is actually required by the end user to address the government’s water sector priorities. 2. Successful demonstration of innovative technologies ensures sustainability and helps create demand. The decision of the MWRI to scale up the ETWatch System at the national level attests this notion. The fact that the Egyptian institutions are reaching out to develop partnerships with technology providers beyond the project scope, such as the CAS, further strengthens this observation. In addition, the technologies introduced through the project and the appropriate demonstration of their results has created a huge demand in the sector at all levels. This is evident from the requests that the NARSS has received from Environment and Climate Change Research Institute and Nile Water Institute. The agreement between the NARSS and the Ministry of Environment to establish a center of excellence on climate change is another such example. 3. Simplicity of design optimizes the impact. Considering the fact that the overall achievement of the program could affect nationwide decision making for water resources management, the project design was simple and had one main objective with three clear indicators. Similarly, the implementation arrangement was simple with clear roles and responsibilities. The implementing agency was a central research institution with strategic outreach instead of a sector ministry. This worked in two ways: (a) normal ministerial conflicts were avoided and (b) results were achieved within a short span of time, accruing benefits for all other institutions that are relevant for water resources management. 4. Relevance of the project is imperative to ensure strong political support and government ownership. Given the relevance of the project to the government’s development agenda, leaders at all levels of government focused on the project’s progress and implementation management, and set up effective interdepartmental, multilevel cooperation mechanisms. This attention and commitment to resolve issues quickly allowed the project to achieve its objectives after facing an unforeseeable bottleneck. It is therefore confirmed again that ownership of the project at all levels of government is crucial to successfully achieving outcomes, and the World Bank together with the clients should take measures necessary to ensure the relevance of projects with the higher-level government priorities from the design phase onwards. 5. Technological innovations cannot be sustained without local expertise. Nothing could be more relevant to the future development of the most water-stressed area of the populated world than introduction of a set of low- cost technological innovations to accurately and quickly measure the presence and usage of water. However, introduction of innovations without transferring the skills does not make any difference. Through the project capacity-building activities, the country established a strong cadre of expertise in RS technologies, especially through working with international experts on practical problems and associated specific technical training under each modeling study. The capacity enhancement efforts supported by NASA and affiliated universities as well as the hands-on experience provided by the CAS to train and strengthen national teams are also worth highlighting. However, the national level rollout of WISP tools will require a much higher level of competence in addition to Page 24 of 46 The World Bank Regional Coordination for Improved Water Resources Mgt. & Capacity (P130801) financial resources. It is therefore recommended that introduction of innovative technologies should be addressed through long term strategic programs and partnerships instead of small scale technical assistance projects. 6. Viability of small scale grants and standalone projects . This project was a small standalone GEF grant designed primarily as a sequel to APL1. On one hand such technical assistance is valued by the clients because of its relevance and flexibility. On the other hand, questions are raised whether the Bank should be involved in execution of these grants without linking them with a major investment. In case of this project, notwithstanding the achievements made, the following aspects of this argument should be considered: a) the administrative cost of the Bank execution is quite high compared to the variable cost of the project; b) without a follow-up program or investment project, the scalability of the innovative technologies remains a challenge; and c) the small dollar amount makes it difficult to keep the client attentive in an IBRD country. Thus, the challenges of supervision and sustainability of achievements need to be considered in case of the use of small standalone grants in a large country without accompanying investment project. . Page 25 of 46 The World Bank Regional Coordination for Improved Water Resources Mgt. & Capacity (P130801) ANNEX 1. RESULTS FRAMEWORK AND KEY OUTPUTS A. RESULTS INDICATORS A.1 PDO Indicators Formally Revised Actual Achieved at Indicator Name Unit of Measure Baseline Original Target Target Completion WISP operational Number 0.00 2.00 1.00 3.00 31-Dec-2012 30-Nov-2016 30-Nov-2017 27-Nov-2017 Comments (achievements against targets): Target value has been fully achieved and surpassed by integrating 3 RS systems in NARSS (300% of the revised value). WISP tools to be implemented under the project include the establishment of remote sensing techniques, digital image analysis tools, land surface models, etc. Systems installed and operational are: 1) GW monitoring with GRACE, 2) ETwatch system, 3) NASA-LIS. Formally Revised Actual Achieved at Indicator Name Unit of Measure Baseline Original Target Target Completion Number of major water Number 0.00 4.00 1.00 2.00 resources decisions made on improved agricultural and 31-Dec-2012 30-Nov-2016 30-Nov-2017 27-Nov-2017 land use management taking into consideration outputs of WISP tools. Page 26 of 46 The World Bank Regional Coordination for Improved Water Resources Mgt. & Capacity (P130801) Comments (achievements against targets): The target value achieved and exceeded (200% of the revised target value). Major water management decision taken by the MWRI are: (a) scaling-up the ETWatch-Egypt system to be used at national level as the water accounting and allocation tool. 2) the findings of the GW study is being used to evaluate the original planning for the mega project of reclaiming 4.5 M fed. Formally Revised Actual Achieved at Indicator Name Unit of Measure Baseline Original Target Target Completion Regional project data portal Number 0.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 developed and operational in all countries (according to 31-Dec-2012 30-Nov-2016 30-Nov-2017 27-Nov-2017 IW:LEARN guidelines Comments (achievements against targets): Target value fully achieved (100% of target value). This target result has been achieved by constructing a documentary page that considered all training materials, reports and publications. A.2 Intermediate Results Indicators Formally Revised Actual Achieved at Indicator Name Unit of Measure Baseline Original Target Target Completion WISP Hardware Purchased Number 0.00 2.00 15.00 36.00 and Installed in implementing agency 31-Dec-2012 30-Nov-2016 30-Nov-2017 27-Nov-2017 Comments (achievements against targets): The target value achieved and exceeded (240% of the revised target value). The purchased and installed equipment include high Performance computing server (HPC) to run the LIS software, 72 computing cores, 256 GB memory and 24 TB hard disk, Backup Page 27 of 46 The World Bank Regional Coordination for Improved Water Resources Mgt. & Capacity (P130801) and storage system, 4 printers and 2 photocopiers, In-situ measurement devices such as TDR Soil moisture measurement; Thermal Camera; Crop Analyzer; VLF meters; ASD Spectroradiometer, (5 servers, 19 pcs and 5 laptops. The most important in the above-mentioned list is the LIS server which is sharable between, NARSS, MWRI MALR and EMA.. Formally Revised Actual Achieved at Indicator Name Unit of Measure Baseline Original Target Target Completion Number of remote sensing Number 0.00 15.00 40.00 128.00 and stakeholder staff trained on use of WISP tools 31-Dec-2012 30-Nov-2016 30-Nov-2017 27-Nov-2017 Comments (achievements against targets): The target value achieved and exceeded (320% of the revised target value). Overall 128 staff members and stakeholders attended various training programs on technical capacity building, procurement and financial management. These trainings significantly strengthened the technical and institutional capacity of PMU (NARSS) and line ministries. Formally Revised Actual Achieved at Indicator Name Unit of Measure Baseline Original Target Target Completion Local stakeholder training Number 0.00 6.00 5.00 7.00 workshop 31-Dec-2012 30-Nov-2016 30-Nov-2017 27-Nov-2017 Comments (achievements against targets): The target value achieved and exceeded (140% of the revised target value). Details are provided in the narrative section. Page 28 of 46 The World Bank Regional Coordination for Improved Water Resources Mgt. & Capacity (P130801) Formally Revised Actual Achieved at Indicator Name Unit of Measure Baseline Original Target Target Completion Number of Number 0.00 5.00 15.00 16.00 international/regional conferences/workshops 31-Dec-2012 30-Nov-2016 30-Nov-2017 30-Nov-2017 Comments (achievements against targets): The target value achieved and exceeded (106% of the revised target value). A total of 16 regional and international events were organized to share knowledge and experience with stakeholders. Most significant of those was a regional event organized in collaboration with AWC for regional stakeholders. Formally Revised Actual Achieved at Indicator Name Unit of Measure Baseline Original Target Target Completion Total number of WISP tools Number 0.00 2.00 4.00 4.00 adapted and models operational 31-Dec-2012 30-Nov-2016 30-Nov-2017 30-Nov-2017 Water Balance Study - LIZ Number 0.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 modeling study 31-Dec-2014 30-Nov-2016 30-Nov-2017 30-Nov-2017 Groundwater Study Number 0.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 31-Dec-2014 30-Nov-2016 30-Nov-2017 30-Nov-2017 Irrigation Optimization - Number 0.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 Crop/irrigation mapping and monitoring study 31-Dec-2014 30-Nov-2016 30-Nov-2017 15-May-2017 Page 29 of 46 The World Bank Regional Coordination for Improved Water Resources Mgt. & Capacity (P130801) ET modeling study Number 0.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 31-Dec-2014 30-Nov-2016 30-Nov-2017 30-Nov-2017 Comments (achievements against targets): The target value was achieved 100%. The groundwater RS modeling, LIS modeling, The ETWatch-Egypt and irrigation mapping and monitoring are fully adapted and operational. Formally Revised Actual Achieved at Indicator Name Unit of Measure Baseline Original Target Target Completion Modeling outcomes reported Number 0.00 4.00 4.00 4.00 to end-users 31-Dec-2014 30-Nov-2016 30-Nov-2017 30-Nov-2017 Comments (achievements against targets): Target value was achieved 100%. All modeling outcomes were comprehensively communicated to relevant stakeholders. Formally Revised Actual Achieved at Indicator Name Unit of Measure Baseline Original Target Target Completion Expected impacts and Number 0.00 4.00 1.00 2.00 technical and policy implementation plan 31-Dec-2012 30-Nov-2016 30-Nov-2017 27-Nov-2017 developed by end-users Comments (achievements against targets): The target value was achieved 100%. 2 major policy decisions were made my MWRI on ground water Page 30 of 46 The World Bank Regional Coordination for Improved Water Resources Mgt. & Capacity (P130801) monitoring and the development of a Water Accounting Unit based RS ET system. Formally Revised Actual Achieved at Indicator Name Unit of Measure Baseline Original Target Target Completion Number of participants for Number 0.00 45.00 45.00 119.00 the international/regional/local 31-Dec-2012 30-Nov-2016 30-Nov-2017 30-Nov-2017 training/conferences/worksh ops Comments (achievements against targets): The target value achieved and exceeded (264% of the revised target value). Page 31 of 46 The World Bank Regional Coordination for Improved Water Resources Mgt. & Capacity (P130801) B. KEY OUTPUTS BY COMPONENT The development objective of the Second Phase of the Multi-country Regional Coordination on Improved Water Resources Management and Capacity Building Program (APL 2) for Egypt was to improve water resources and agricultural management and planning within and across beneficiary countries based on quantitative and spatial-based decision-making tools. 1. WISP operational 2. Number of major water resources decisions made on improved agricultural and land use management taking into consideration Outcome Indicators outputs of WISP tools 3. Regional project data portal developed and operational in all countries (according to IW:LEARN guidelines) Component 1 1. IO1a. WISP hardware purchased and installed in implementing agency 2. IO1b.Total number of WISP tools adapted and models operational 3. IO1c.Water Balance Study - LIS Modeling Study Intermediate Results Indicators 4. IO1d.Groundwater Study 5. IO1e.Irrigation Optimization - Crop/Irrigation Mapping and Monitoring Study 6. IO1f.ET Modeling Study Component 2 Page 32 of 46 The World Bank Regional Coordination for Improved Water Resources Mgt. & Capacity (P130801) 1. IO2a.Local stakeholders’ training workshops 2. IO2b.Number of remote sensing and stakeholder staff trained on use of WISP tools 3. IO2c.Number of international/regional conferences/workshops 4. IO2d.Modeling outcomes reported to end users 5. IO2e.Expected impacts and technical and policy implementation plan developed by end users 6. IO2f. Number of participants for the international/regional/local training/conferences/workshops Component 3 1. IO3a.Regional data portal developed and operational Component 1 1. IO1a. 36 out of 15 - 240% 2. IO1b. 4 out of 4 - 100% 3. IO1c. 1 out of 1 - 100% 4. IO1d. 1 out of 1 - 100% 5. IO1e. 1 out of 1 - 100% 6. IO1f. 1 out of 1 - 100% Key Outputs by Component Component 2 (linked to the achievement of the Objective/Outcome 1) 1. IO2a. 7 out of 5 - 140% 2. IO2b. 128 out of 40 - 320% 3. IO2c. 16 out of 15 - 106% 4. IO2d. 4 out of 4 - 100% 5. IO2e. 2 out 2 - 100% 6. IO2f. 119 out of 45 - 264% Component 3 1. IO3a. 1 out of 1 - 100% Page 33 of 46 The World Bank Regional Coordination for Improved Water Resources Mgt. & Capacity (P130801) ANNEX 2. BANK LENDING AND IMPLEMENTATION SUPPORT/SUPERVISION A. TASK TEAM MEMBERS Name Role Preparation Supervision/ICR Qun Li Task Team Leader(s) Basheer Ahmad Fahem Sadeq Jaber Procurement Specialist(s) Wael Ahmed Elshabrawy Financial Management Specialist Feng Ji Environmental Safeguards Specialist Taoufiq Bennouna Environmental Safeguards Specialist Heba Yaken Aref Ahmed Team Member Sally Zgheib Team Member Amal Nabil Faltas Bastorous Social Safeguards Specialist Comment: Staff time for preparation was charged to APL 1. A total of three staff ** weeks (US$3,870.38) were retroactively posted to the project. B. STAFF TIME AND COST Staff Time and Cost Stage of Project Cycle No. of staff weeks US$ (including travel and consultant costs) Preparation FY12 0 0.00 FY13 0 3,870.38 Total 0.00 3,870.38 Supervision/ICR FY15 11.500 36,126.13 FY16 6.313 30,693.30 FY17 7.797 65,696.48 FY18 6.100 38,057.55 Page 34 of 46 The World Bank Regional Coordination for Improved Water Resources Mgt. & Capacity (P130801) Total 31.71 170,573.46 ANNEX 3. PROJECT COST BY COMPONENT Amount at Approval Actual at ICR Percentage of Approval Components (US$) (US$) (US$) Improved Local Water Resources and Agricultural 745,000 675,000.00 91 Management Capacity Building and Project 305,000 365,000.00 120 Management Regional Integration and 10,000.00 NA Cooperation Total 1,050,000 1,050,000.00 100 Allocation Readjustments FY 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Total %PAD PAD Annual 200,000 200,000 200,000 200,000 250,000 1,050,000 100.0 adjustment Cumulative 200,000 400,000 600,000 800,000 1,050,000 1,050,000 100.0 Annual 150,000 0 60,996.15 404,905.93 434097.92 1,050,000 100.0 RP adjustment Cumulative 150,000 150,000 210,996.15 615,902.08 1,050,000 1,050,000 100.0 Financing Plan (in US$, millions) TF Government Beneficiaries Total ICR 1.03 0 0 1.03 PAD 1.05 0 0 1.05 Page 35 of 46 The World Bank Regional Coordination for Improved Water Resources Mgt. & Capacity (P130801) ANNEX 4. EFFICIENCY ANALYSIS There was no project efficiency analysis at project appraisal. The project, like all technical assistance and engineering projects, was not amenable to standard quantifiable rate of return or cost-benefit analysis, in part because the benefits are at least partially speculative. In this case, however, some outcomes of the project dwarf the very small cost of the project. It is evident from the following examples. • Data sharing also is cost sharing and obtaining better data. In Egypt, multiple agencies collect similar data, often not knowing that the other agencies are collecting the same data. Moreover, when one agency wants to do an assessment, it often starts from the beginning without first talking to the other agencies to find out what data they already have. The amount of wasted resources expended in this manner cannot be underestimated. This project addresses this challenge through the establishment of the project portal, which will contain all water- and irrigation-related data generated through new technologies and will be accessible to end users at the MWRI and MALR. • As per the analytical work carried out by the World Bank (Water in the Arab Countries), the MWRI spends 85 percent of its annual budget (approximately LE 1,218,945,000) on irrigation. Almost 10 percent of this amount (LE 121,894,500) is spent on terrestrial investigation; the SUV caravans across the desert to monitor the few observation wells which existed and teams walk through forests to assess dryness of vegetation or through farmland to assess drought impacts or water usage. However, RS-based tools can significantly reduce the cost of data collection and improve accuracy. It is anticipated that the cost of data collection in an integrated and efficient manner through application programs operationalized by the project would save approximately LE 25 million annually. • As mentioned earlier, the findings of the GW study will be used for the planning of future reclamation projects that will be prepared under the National Reclamation Program. The Government of Egypt considers this program as their national priority. The estimated cost of this endeavor is LE 6 billion (approximately US$400 million) and its goal is to reduce poverty and enhance food and nutrition security in rural areas through remunerative, sustainable, and resilient livelihoods. More specifically, the program aims to increase agricultural area by an estimated 35 percent through horizontal expansion (goal of the national Agricultural Policy), which in turn will result in major economic benefits for communities in the Nile Basin. In addition, it is anticipated that the program will also increase the habitable desert area by 20 percent, hence reducing the pressure of population density on the Nile Basin. The combination of the above factors presents a strong case for the efficiency and economy the project has provided. Page 36 of 46 The World Bank Regional Coordination for Improved Water Resources Mgt. & Capacity (P130801) ANNEX 5. BORROWER, CO-FINANCIER AND OTHER PARTNER/STAKEHOLDER COMMENTS Page 37 of 46 The World Bank Regional Coordination for Improved Water Resources Mgt. & Capacity (P130801) In addition, the client prepared an Implementation Completion Report documenting the final outcomes of the project implementation. That report was used to prepare this ICR and certain quantitative and qualitative content is reflected in this report. The following sections summarize the main points from the client’s completion report regarding (a) assessment of outcomes, (b) assessment of risk to development outcomes, and (c) Bank’s performance. Lessons learned are quoted as such from the client’s completion report. Summary of Client’s Assessment of Outcomes • Overall assessment of the development objective is rated as Substantial since all PDO indicators were successfully achieved. • The NARSS and line ministries are now equipped with tools and competence to support informed decision making in the following areas: i) Classify and validate several crop types. ii) Identify different data types used to calculate the ET. iii) Produce customized ET estimates for different pilot areas. iv) Integrate and validate satellite- and ground-based observational data products and advanced modeling techniques to produce optimal fields of land surface states and fluxes. v) Map rate of changes in GW using GRACE. vi) Use latest processing techniques of GRACE to improve spatial resolution. • The GEO/PDO are relevant to the MENA region’s environmental condition and to Egypt considering the acute problems of water scarcity, population growth, rapid urbanization, and expected precipitation decrease over the years to come. The GEO/PDO still remains highly relevant in Egypt and the MENA region and is in line with the long-term objectives of Egypt’s development strategy. • The project, consistent with other technical assistance, was not amenable to standard quantifiable rate of return or cost-benefit analysis due to the difficulty of attribution. • According to the meetings with the stakeholders after project closure, the outcomes of the project are very useful for the MWRI and MALR for water resources management and agricultural planning. Summary of Client’s Assessment of Risk to Development Outcomes • The project risks, which were identified at appraisal, mostly centered on the anticipated unfamiliarity with World Bank procurement and FM guidelines. The overall risks were considered manageable with mitigation measures in place. • Other project risks included slow cooperation among the various stakeholders in sharing hydrological information. This risk was mitigated by close Bank supervision, organizing regular progress workshops for national water stakeholders, and providing frequent opportunities for knowledge sharing and exchange in an environment of technical and scientific rigor. • The NARSS, fully supported by the political leadership, is already planning several post-operation initiatives in collaboration with other line ministries. Summary of Client’s Assessment of Bank Performance Overall, in all areas the client rated the World Bank's performance Highly Satisfactory. They mentioned the following specific areas where the Bank added significant value to the project preparation and implementation: Page 38 of 46 The World Bank Regional Coordination for Improved Water Resources Mgt. & Capacity (P130801) • Introducing advanced technologies and concepts: RS for integrated water resources management and water saving technologies. • Guiding and pushing forward project implementation: through the whole process of design, preparation, and implementation to ensure that the project design was reasonable and could achieve the intended development targets. • Promoting and strengthening collaboration among project stakeholders: stressing cooperation and actively promoting communication between the NARSS and relevant line ministries. • Providing strict supervision and inspection during the project: raising important issues, making useful recommendations, and providing technical guidance through missions, aide memoires, and annual implementation plans. • Facilitating access to the best available technical assistance: arranging capacity-building programs involving NASA, American universities, and CAS on RS technology and its applications. • Providing technical assistance for project management: organizing training programs on various aspects of project management including procurement management and FM. • The Mid-Term Review: The process and outcomes of the MTR were specifically appreciated by the client as it helped them identify a clear way forward through jointly identified revisions and adjustments to successfully achieve all project outcomes in flying colors. Lessons Learned (quoted from Client’s Completion Report) • Handling all obstacles that faced the project and the delay the project had to endure requires further preparations ahead in coming projects. • How to orient remote sensing tools and apply it within end users and stakeholders. • Project management team should be well oriented with the World Bank’s procedures. • Capacity building for both technical and project management aspects. • The capacity enhancement efforts supported by NASA, Chinese Academy of Science, World Bank (procurement and financial trainings) and international science teams to train and strengthen national teams are also worth highlighting. Capacity enhancement that can quickly impact the quality of support to local decision and policy making is often an early outcome relative to other desired outcomes. • It’s very important that technical projects follow project management procedures • The project performance and its improvement throughout the project period show the necessity of working within the World Bank policies and guidelines during the project preparation and implementation. This can be achieved through proposed detailed implementation plans with specific budget allocation and timeframe along with an operational manual as well as holding procurement and financial training for the project designated staff. • Short term projects should not include long term education courses • Fellowships should not be a major project component. All project related trainings and workshops should be related to the project implementation and execution. • The AWC regional coordination role with Lebanon, Jordan, Morocco and Tunisia, for the APL 1 of this project, gave NARSS the opportunity to attend and get involved in several regional workshops and supervision missions which helped NARSS benefit from each countries’ cases and develop its implementation from the lessons learned from the 4 countries. Page 39 of 46 The World Bank Regional Coordination for Improved Water Resources Mgt. & Capacity (P130801) ANNEX 6. SUPPORTING DOCUMENTS (IF ANY) 1. Project Appraisal Document 2. Aide Memoires of Implementation Support Missions 2013–2017 3. Implementation Status Reports 2013–2017 4. Aide Memoire of MTR 2015 5. Restructuring Paper 6. Borrower’s Implementation Completion Report 7. ICR of APL 1 (2016) 8. Independent Evaluation Group (IEG) ICR Review of APL 1 (2016) 9. Egypt Country Assistance Strategy Interim Paper 2012 10. Egypt CPF 2015–2019 11. Sustainable Development Strategy: Egypt 2030 (Ministry of Planning, Monitoring and Administrative Reform) 12. Arab Republic of Egypt Water Resource Management Plan (Ministry of Water Resources and Irrigation) 13. World Bank Water Resources Sector Strategy - Sustaining Water for All in a Changing Climate 14. World Bank MNA RWSI 15. Water in The Arab World - World Bank Economic and Sector Work (ESW) 16. Egypt Public Expenditure Review of the Water Sector Page 40 of 46 The World Bank Regional Coordination for Improved Water Resources Mgt. & Capacity (P130801) ANNEX 7. MAP Page 41 of 46 The World Bank Regional Coordination for Improved Water Resources Mgt. & Capacity (P130801) ANNEX 8. WISP Toolkit – General Description 1. ETWatch System ET that consists of evaporation and transpiration determines interactions and feedbacks among the geosphere, biosphere, and atmosphere in the earth system. It is one of the most difficult components to estimate in the terrestrial water budgets, and accurate ET estimation is crucial to understanding the land– atmosphere interactions to mediate climate change impacts and improving water resources management, agricultural production assessment, and environmental protection. Therefore, ET estimation is listed as a critical content of research on land–atmosphere interactions and agricultural irrigation and drainage by many international programs and organizations such as NASA. The RS through ETWatch System can provide surface parameters for ET estimation at a regional scale, whereas the traditional approaches just provide points measurement. It is an operational processing chain starting from data preprocessing to application products using spatial information on climate, soil type, land use, vegetation cover, digital elevation, and remote-sensed land surface parameters. The surface energy balance algorithm for land (SEBAL) and the surface energy balance system (SEBS) are integrated into ETWatch to estimate surface fluxes in clear-sky conditions, while the Penman-Monteith is applied to retrieve daily ET based on the surface resistance model, the meteorological data, and the surface parameters from RS. ETWatch consists of five subsystems and a system database (Figure 1). The five subsystems include data acquisition, data preprocessing, ET monitoring, ET application, and database management system. An operational platform serves for the trained engineers to estimate ET themselves rather than by developers or specialized RS/ET specialists. Data acquisition The data acquisition subsystem is responsible for collecting Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), TM data, meteorological data, and atmospheric boundary layer radio soundings data. Diurnal MODIS data can be downloaded from a Very Small Aperture Terminal (VSAT). Because of the high storage requirement (20–40 GB daily), timely data transmission is performed. The diurnal meteorological data and atmospheric boundary layer radio soundings data are shared by the meteorological data center of the National Meteorological Bureau. Data preprocessing According to the data types acquired by the data acquisition subsystem, different processing methods and processes are developed. Preprocessing for RS data includes radiometric, geometric, and atmospheric corrections and cloud detection and land surface parameters calculation modules. The land surface parameters calculation module includes five key land surface parameters from multispectral radiances: land surface albedo, land surface temperature, spectral vegetation index, land surface emissivity, and surface roughness. The retrieval of RS land surface parameters is not only affected by the satellite observation angle and atmospheric conditions, but also by the undulated land surface characteristics. To eliminate the impact of these physical conditions, ETWatch has embedded the 6S atmospheric radiative transfer model to conduct atmosphere corrections (Stein and Zaadnoordijk 1999, Vermote et al. 1997). The consistency of the atmospherically corrected spectral reflectance data between various satellite overpass days has been greatly improved due to these standard correction procedures. The land surface temperature is retrieved by the split window algorithm proposed by Wan and Li (1997) and Mao et al. (2005), which eliminates the effects resulting from atmospheric water vapor on the transmittance of long Page 42 of 46 The World Bank Regional Coordination for Improved Water Resources Mgt. & Capacity (P130801) wave radiation through the atmosphere. Meteorological data processing comprises sunshine hours, air temperature, air pressure, air humidity, and wind speed. In situ records were interpolated into daily maps at 1 km resolution. Solar radiation was estimated with clear-sky radiation and relative sunshine duration. Except sunshine duration, all variables above were corrected with elevation above sea level. The inverse distance squared method was commonly used for air temperatures and air pressure in combination with DEM data, whereas thin plate splines were employed for other variables (Qian et al. 2005). Approximate instantaneous maps of air temperature were calculated from daily maximum air temperature using a sine conversion. ET monitoring Multispectral radiance in the visible, near-infrared, thermal infrared, and microwave region of the electromagnetic spectrum are combined with routine micrometeorological ground data, atmospheric boundary layer radio soundings data, and digital elevation model data to describe the land surface fluxes. The ET monitoring subsystem consists of ET calculation on cloud-free day, continuous ET calculation, ET data fusion, and ET calibration and validation modules. ET application The ET application subsystem is developed to meet the requirement on different types of information dissemination from users. The subsystem consists of a statistical analysis of ET and information dissemination modules. A grid-based statistical analysis method provides water consumption results for different provinces and counties, different land use types, and plots that are interesting to farmers and Page 43 of 46 The World Bank Regional Coordination for Improved Water Resources Mgt. & Capacity (P130801) decision makers for water resources management. Information dissemination aims to realize the query of historical and real-time ET monitoring results. The dynamical demonstration of the ET map with a color legend is developed under the support of the Arc IMS platform. ET statistical information of counties and different land use types are demonstrated by means of the temporal process change curves. ET of interesting plots can be calculated directly after a region is selected by the user. 2. Land Information System – LIS Modeling The LIS is a flexible land surface modeling and data assimilation framework designed using advanced software engineering principles. Structured to enable community sharing and the reuse of modeling tools, data resources, and assimilation algorithms, the LIS infrastructure provides modeling tools to integrate satellite- and ground-based observational data products and advanced land surface modeling techniques to produce optimal fields of land surface states and fluxes. The LIS framework integrates these observations with model forecasts to generate improved estimates of land surface conditions such as soil moisture, evaporation, snow pack, and runoff (at 1 km and finer spatial resolutions and at one hour and finer temporal resolutions). The fine scale spatial modeling capability of the LIS allows it to take advantage of moderate / high resolution products, such as MODIS leaf area index, snow cover, and surface temperature at full resolution. The LIS features a high performance and flexible design, provides infrastructure for data integration and assimilation, and operates on an ensemble of LSMs for extension over user-specified regional or global domains. The system is designed as an object-oriented framework, with abstractions defined for customization and extension to different applications. These extensible interfaces allow the incorporation of new domains, LSMs, land surface parameters, meteorological inputs, data assimilation, and optimization algorithms. The extensible nature of these interfaces and the component-style specification of the system allow rapid prototyping and development of new applications. These features enable the LIS to serve as both: Page 44 of 46 The World Bank Regional Coordination for Improved Water Resources Mgt. & Capacity (P130801) • Problem Solving Environment (PSE) for hydrologic research to enable accurate global water and energy cycle predictions. • Decision Support System (DSS) to generate useful information for application areas including disaster management, water resources management, agricultural management, numerical weather prediction, air quality, and military mobility assessment. Features The LIS currently includes a comprehensive suite of subsystems to support uncoupled and coupled land data assimilation. A schematic of the LIS framework with the associated subsystems is shown in the figure above. • The LIS-LSM subsystem, which is the core of the LIS, supports high performance and interoperable and portable land surface modeling with a suite of community LSMs and input data. • Further, the LIS-LSM subsystem is designed to encapsulate the land surface component of an earth system model. • The LIS-Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) subsystem supports coupled land-atmosphere modeling through both one-way and two-way coupling to the WRF atmospheric model, leading to a hydrometeorological modeling capability that can be used to evaluate the impact of land surface processes on hydrologic prediction. • The LIS-Data Assimilation subsystem supports multiple data assimilation algorithms that are focused on generating improved estimates of hydrologic model states. • Finally, the LIS-Optimization/Uncertainty Estimation (LIS-OPT/UE) subsystem, which is under development, supports a suite of advanced optimization and uncertainty modeling tools in the LIS. 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