THE COST OF NOT INVESTING IN GIRLS CHILD MARRIAGE, EARLY CHILDBEARING, LOW EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT FOR GIRLS, AND THEIR IMPACTS IN UGANDA QUENTIN WODON, CHATA MALE, ADENIKE ONAGORUWA, ABOUDRAHYME SAVADOGO, AND ALI YEDAN DECEMBER 2017 THE COST OF NOT INVESTING IN GIRLS CHILD MARRIAGE, EARLY CHILDBEARING, LOW EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT FOR GIRLS, AND THEIR IMPACTS IN UGANDA QUENTIN WODON, CHATA MALE, ADENIKE ONAGORUWA, ABOUDRAHYME SAVADOGO, AND ALI YEDAN BACKGROUND TO THIS SERIES Despite substantial progress over the last two decades, partner violence and lack of decision-making ability girls still have on average lower levels of educational within the household. Fundamentally, girls marrying, attainment than boys at the secondary level in many having children, or dropping out of school early are countries. This is in part because many girls are married disempowered in ways that deprive them of their basic or have children before the age of 18, often before they rights. This in turn affects their children. For example, may be physically and emotionally ready to become wives children of young mothers often face higher risks of dying and mothers. Educating girls, ending child marriage, and by age five, being malnourished, and doing poorly preventing early childbearing is essential for girls to have in school. agency, not only as future wives and mothers, but also beyond those roles. It is also essential for countries to Overall, the economic and social costs of child marriage, reach their full development potential. early childbearing, and low educational attainment for girls are large. This note is part of a series that discusses trends Girls’ educational attainment, child marriage, and early in girls’ education, child marriage, and early childbearing, childbearing are closely linked. Ending child marriage their impacts on a wide range of development outcomes, and early childbearing would improve girls’ educational and the policies and programs that could improve attainment. Conversely, improving girls’ educational opportunities for adolescent girls. The analysis builds on attainment would help reduce child marriage and early work at the World Bank on the cost of not investing in childbearing. In addition, low educational attainment, girls, and on a previous global study on the economic child marriage, and early childbearing affect girls’ life impacts of child marriage conducted by the World Bank trajectories in many other ways. Girls marrying or in partnership with the International Center for Research dropping out of school early are more likely to experience on Women. The conceptual framework for the analysis is poor health, have more children over their lifetime, and provided in appendix. earn less in adulthood. This makes it more likely that their household will live in poverty. Other risks include intimate 1 | THE COST OF NOT INVESTING IN GIRLS CHILD MARRIAGE, EARLY CHILDBEARING, LOW EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT FOR GIRLS, AND THEIR IMPACTS IN UGANDA | DECEMBER 2017 KEY MESSAGES ąą Imparting adolescent girls with life skills and repro- ductive health knowledge is also essential, wheth- To catalyze attention and investments in Uganda towards er girls are in school or out of school. This can improving girls’ education, ending child marriage, and be done among others through safe space clubs preventing early childbearing, this note documents trends that have proven effective for such purposes. over time in these issues and their impacts on other development outcomes. Economic costs associated with ąą To improve educational attainment for girls, basic selected impacts are also estimated. Finally, policies and conditions also must be met. At the secondary level, programs that could improve outcomes for adolescent girls there is a need to build schools closer to where children are discussed. The note summarizes findings from the 10th (boys or girls) live. As an alternative, adequate modes World Bank Economic Update for Uganda. It is based on a of transportation to schools must be provided. Pro- more detailed background study. The main findings are as viding separate water, sanitation and hygiene facilities follows: for girls is also important, as is the need to reduce the risk of violence and sexual harassment in school. ąą Child marriage, early childbearing, and low education- al attainment for girls have a wide range of negative ąą Finally, for the broader challenge of gender-based impacts not only on the girls themselves, but also on violence and inequality, community-based in- their children, their families, and society at large. terventions to work with men, women, leaders and service providers can also be beneficial. ąą Some of the impacts with the largest economic costs relate to fertility and population growth, women’s earnings, and the health of children born of young INTRODUCTION mothers. Other impacts range from losses in women’s agency to higher risks of intimate partner violence. The proportions of girls marrying or having children before the age of 18 have been declining in Uganda according to ąą Ending child marriage today could generate by 2030 data from the latest publicly available Demographic and up to US$2.7 billion in annual benefits (in purchas- Health Survey (DHS) implemented in 2011 (the 2016 ing power parity terms) simply from lower population DHS is not yet publicly available). Yet despite progress, growth and a reduction in rates of under-five mor- more than one third of girls still marry as children, and close tality and stunting for young children. In addition, to three in ten girls have their first child before turning 18. women’s earnings today would be higher if they had Similarly, despite substantial efforts to improve educational been able to avoid marrying early. This loss in earn- attainment, only one in four girls completes lower secondary ings is estimated at more than US$ 500 million. school, and an even smaller proportion completes upper secondary school. ąą Other benefits from lower population growth would include budget savings for the government for the The Government of Uganda has adopted a national strategy provision of basic services. These savings could be to end child marriage and teenage pregnancies. Improving invested to improve the quality of the services provided. girls’ education is also a priority of the government. Unfortunately, the cultural, economic, and social conditions ąą To delay the age at first marriage and childbear- that have historically contributed to child marriage, early ing, adequate laws are a first step, but interven- childbearing, and low educational attainment for girls remain tions are also needed. Interventions that alleviate strong. More needs to be done to accelerate progress. To economic constraints to girls’ education tend to inspire greater investments in adolescent girls, this note be the most proven. But there is also a role for in- analyses the economic and social impacts of these issues terventions expanding economic opportunities for in Uganda. The note also suggests potential options for adolescent girls who dropped out of school and investments. are not likely to be able to go back to school. DECEMBER 2017 | THE COST OF NOT INVESTING IN GIRLS CHILD MARRIAGE, EARLY CHILDBEARING, LOW EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT FOR GIRLS, | 2 AND THEIR IMPACTS IN UGANDA RELATIONSHIPS BETWEEN These mutual relationships are the reason why incentives for girls to remain in school or go back to school if they dropped CHILD MARRIAGE, EARLY out appear to be among the most effective interventions to delay the age at first marriage and prevent early childbearing. CHILDBEARING, AND It is worth noting that achieving universal secondary completion for girls could dramatically reduce the prevalence GIRLS’ EDUCATION of child marriage and early childbearing. On the other hand, while ending child marriage and early childbearing would help improve girls’ educational attainment, this would not be The issues of child marriage, early childbearing, and low sufficient by itself to ensure universal secondary completion. educational attainment for girls are closely related. They all affect each other. In Uganda, child marriage is likely the cause of more than half of all instances of early childbearing. In some cases, early childbearing may lead to child marriage, but this is probably less likely. In addition, the causality between child marriage and early childbearing on the one We are faced with long distances hand, and girls’ educational attainment on the other hand, goes both ways. Child marriage and early childbearing have to primary schools. Girls on their a negative effect on educational attainment. Conversely, way to school meet men who keeping girls in schools reduces the risks of child marriage entice our daughters with money and early childbearing. A summary of these relationships is for sex. Later some get pregnant provided in Table 1. and drop out of school. Also, we have no vocational school that will train our girls after P7 and S4, so we see it as a waste of resources to educate a girl. 3 | THE COST OF NOT INVESTING IN GIRLS CHILD MARRIAGE, EARLY CHILDBEARING, LOW EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT FOR GIRLS, AND THEIR IMPACTS IN UGANDA | DECEMBER 2017 Table 1: Relationships between Child Marriage, Early Childbearing, and Girls’ Educational Attainment Relationship between child marriage and early childbearing Child marriage is likely the cause of more than half of girls having children before the age of 18 Child marriage is likely the cause of more than half of births of children from mothers younger than 18 Ending child marriage could reduce early childbearing for girls and early childbirths for children by half Impacts of child marriage and early childbearing on girls’ educational attainment Early pregnancies and marriages are major reasons for dropping out of school Child marriage reduces the likelihood of completing secondary school by 12 to 23 percentage points Once a girl is married, statistics suggest that it is very difficult for her to remain in school, whatever her age Child marriage affects the education of the children of girls marrying early at least indirectly Impacts of girls’ educational attainment on child marriage and early childbearing Each year of secondary education leads to a reduction in the likelihood of marrying as a child of seven points Each year of secondary education leads to a reduction in the likelihood of early childbearing of seven points IMPACTS ON OTHER Susan’s mother died. With DEVELOPMENT one sister and four brothers, she lives with her father. She OUTCOMES dropped out of school became FERTILITY AND POPULATION GROWTH pregnant. She works as a casual laborer in people’s gardens. Her Child marriage, early childbearing, and girls’ education job is much tougher than school, have large impacts on how many children women have in their lifetime and on population growth. Women who she said, but she explained that marry earlier are likely to begin childbearing earlier and she could not go back to school have more children over their lifetime. Depending on the any more. “I just want to take age at marriage, child marriage increases by 10 percent to care of my young siblings and see 19 percent the number of children women have over their them through primary school, lifetime (total fertility). Ending child marriage could reduce total fertility by 8 percent nationally. Some secondary and if possible up to secondary education and higher education also lead to reductions in school ”, she said. total fertility, but the impacts for primary and secondary completion are not statistically significant. While ending child marriage would not necessarily affect the use of modern contraceptives in a statistically significant way, improving educational attainment for girls would. Finally, estimates suggest that ending child marriage and early childbearing could reduce annual rates of population growth by 0.17 percentage point. Some reduction would also probably come from better educational attainment for girls, but this effect is not computed here as the focus is on the impacts of primary and secondary completion. Table 2 summarizes the findings. DECEMBER 2017 | THE COST OF NOT INVESTING IN GIRLS CHILD MARRIAGE, EARLY CHILDBEARING, LOW EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT FOR GIRLS, | 4 AND THEIR IMPACTS IN UGANDA Table 2: Impacts on Fertility and Population Growth Impacts of child marriage and early childbearing Impacts of girls’ educational attainment Depending on the age at marriage, child marriage increases total Some secondary and higher education lead to reductions in fertility of fertility for women by 10% to 19% -11% and -30% respectively Ending child marriage could reduce the national rate of total fertility Due to a focus on impacts for primary or secondary completion, by 8% national effects are not computed Marrying as a child does not have a statistically significant impact on Some secondary and higher education lead to increases in use of 6 modern contraceptive use points and 15 points respectively Ending child marriage would not affect national use of modern Due to a focus on impacts for primary or secondary completion, contraceptives national effects are not computed Ending child marriage and early childbearing could reduce population Due to a focus on impacts for primary or secondary completion, growth by 0.17 percentage point national effects are not computed Each year of secondary education leads to a reduction in the likelihood Each year of secondary education leads to a reduction in the likelihood of early childbearing of seven points of early childbearing of seven points HEALTH, NUTRITION AND VIOLENCE that could result from preventing early childbearing are smaller because only a relatively small share of children are born of Early childbearing can impact the health of both girls and mothers younger than 18 at the time of birth. Still, many their children. For the girls, their physical immaturity may children would be affected. In addition, the impact of child increase the likelihood of complications during pregnancy marriage on intimate partner violence is very large in Uganda, and childbirth, resulting in higher risks of maternal mortality with one fifth of the observed violence associated with child and morbidity, although those risks are not measured in this marriage. For most measures, in Uganda the impacts of the study. Early childbearing may also affect the health of young educational attainment for girls tend to be lower than those of children. In Uganda, children born of mothers younger than child marriage and early childbearing. Table 3 summarizes the 18 have substantially higher risks of dying by age five and being main findings. stunted. The reductions in under-five mortality and stunting Table 3: Impacts on Health, Nutrition, and Violence Impacts of child marriage and early childbearing Impacts of girls’ educational attainment Being born of a mother younger than 18 increases the risk of under- The educational attainment of the mother does not affect statistically five mortality by 4.7 percentage points the risk of under-five mortality Ending all early childbirths would reduce under-five mortality from Universal primary or secondary education may not lead to a national 6.58% to 6.31% nationally decline in under-five mortality Being born of a young mother has an unusually large impact on under- The educational attainment of the mother does not affect statistically five stunting at 22 percentage points the risk of under-five stunting Ending all early childbirths would reduce under-five stunting from Universal primary or secondary education may not lead to a national 33.61% to 32.58% nationally decline in under-five stunting Child marriage has a large impact on intimate partner violence, Educational attainment for women does not reduce statistically the accounting for 20% of the observed violence risk of intimate partner violence 5 | THE COST OF NOT INVESTING IN GIRLS CHILD MARRIAGE, EARLY CHILDBEARING, LOW EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT FOR GIRLS, AND THEIR IMPACTS IN UGANDA | DECEMBER 2017 WORK, EARNINGS, AND POVERTY Ending child marriage could lead to a small increase in labor force participation (LFP) through its impacts on girls’ educational attainment and total fertility. In contrast, the impact of ending child marriage on earnings for women in adulthood would be large. Women who married early could have benefited from an increase in earnings of 15 percent if they had married later, mostly because of the impact of child marriage on educational attainment. Nationally, this could lead to an increase in the population’s overall earnings of one percent. Through their impact on both total fertility and educational attainment for girls, ending child marriage and early childbearing would also have positive effects on welfare and poverty. Finally, the impacts on earnings and thereby poverty of universal primary or secondary education could be even larger. For example, universal primary education could raise earnings nationally by 18 percent, and the impact for universal secondary education for girls would be even larger. Table 4 summarizes the estimated impacts. Table 4: Impacts on Work, Earnings, and Poverty Impacts of child marriage and early childbearing Impacts of girls’ educational attainment Ending child marriage could lead to a small increase in LFP indirectly Universal primary and secondary education could increase LFP by one through its impact on education and five points, respectively Ending child marriage could increase earnings in adulthood for women Higher educational attainment for girls is associated with substantial marrying early by 15% increases in earnings in adulthood Ending child marriage could increase the population’s earnings and Universal primary education could raise earnings by 18%. The impact productivity nationally by one percent for secondary would be larger Ending child marriage could have large positive effects on welfare and Universal primary or secondary education could have large positive reduce poverty effects on welfare and reduce poverty AGENCY AND OTHER IMPACTS indicators of women’s agency are typically not statistically significant. However, because child marriage as well as early Agency is complex, and only a few partial indicators of agency childbearing reduce educational attainment for girls, they are considered in this note. The focus is on women’s decision- may have negative impacts on agency through education. making ability within the household, including their ability to Indeed, for most indicators, the impact of girls’ educational seek care, as well as other aspects such as the likelihood of land attainment is statistically significant with one exception for ownership, knowledge of HIV/AIDS, and birth registration for birth registrations. Table 5 summarizes the estimated impacts. young children. The direct impacts of child marriage on these DECEMBER 2017 | THE COST OF NOT INVESTING IN GIRLS CHILD MARRIAGE, EARLY CHILDBEARING, LOW EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT FOR GIRLS, | 6 AND THEIR IMPACTS IN UGANDA Table 5: Impacts on Decision-making, Agency, and Other Areas Impacts of child marriage and early childbearing Impacts of girls’ educational attainment Child marriage does not affect decision-making ability directly, but it Universal secondary education could increase women’s decision- matters indirectly through education making ability by 19 percent Child marriage does not affect women’s ability to seek care directly, Universal secondary education could increase women’s ability to seek but it matters through education care by close to one third Child marriage is associated with a higher likelihood of land ownership Educational attainment for women is associated with a higher (two percentage points) for women likelihood of land ownership for women Child marriage is not associated with a reduction in adulthood in Universal secondary education could increase women’s knowledge of women’s knowledge of HIV/AIDS HIV/AIDS by four percent Child marriage is not associated with a reduction in birth registration Educational attainment for women is not associated with an increase in rates for young children birth registration rates for children SUMMARY OF THE IMPACTS Overall, the negative impacts of child marriage, early For all indicators except birth childbearing, and low educational attainment for girls are large. Table 6 summarizes the estimates. First, the mutual registrations, either child relationships between child marriage, early childbearing, and marriage/early childbearing low educational attainment for girls are strong. Second, all or secondary education three issues tend, in turn, to have negative impacts individually completion have a statistically or collectively on a wide range of other outcomes. For all significant impact. This shows outcomes except birth registrations, either child marriage/ early childbearing or secondary education completion have a how pervasive and widespread statistically significant impact. Clearly, the negative effects of the impacts of a lack of child marriage/early childbearing and educational attainment opportunities for girls are. for girls are pervasive and widespread. 7 | THE COST OF NOT INVESTING IN GIRLS CHILD MARRIAGE, EARLY CHILDBEARING, LOW EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT FOR GIRLS, AND THEIR IMPACTS IN UGANDA | DECEMBER 2017 Table 6: Summary of Statistically Significant Estimated Impacts by Domain Child marriage Secondary education Either one Domains and Indicators or early childbearing completion of the two Mutual relationships Child marriage/ Early childbearing - Yes Yes Educational attainment Yes - Yes Fertility and population growth Fertility Yes Likely Yes Population growth Yes Likely Yes Modern contraceptive use No Likely Yes Health and nutrition Under-five mortality Yes No Yes Under-five stunting Yes No Yes Labor force participation No Yes Yes Demand for healthcare No Yes Yes Work and productivity Intimate partner violence Yes No Yes Women’s earnings Yes Yes Yes Household welfare Yes Yes Yes Women’s agency Decision-making ability No Yes Yes Land ownership No Yes Yes Knowledge of HIV/AIDS Yes Yes Yes Birth registration No No No Note: The term “likely” is used for some impacts of secondary completion because for those indicators, while the impact of secondary education completion is not statistically significant possibly due to small sample sizes, the impacts of some secondary as well as higher education are statistically significant. ECONOMIC COSTS AND The economic benefit from ending child marriage related BENEFITS: THE CASE OF to welfare gains from lower CHILD MARRIAGE population growth is large. This benefit could reach $2.4 billion While providing a monetary valuation of all the costs (in purchasing power parity) by associated with child marriage, early childbearing, and a lack of educational attainment for girls is not feasible, costs for 2030. some of the largest impacts can be estimated. For this note on Uganda, the focus is on the costs of child marriage, or of some of the benefits of ending child marriage, especially in equivalently the benefits of ending the practice. The focus the case of population growth. It also allows valuations to adjust is on benefits related to a reduction in the rate of population for increases in standards of living (GDP per capita) over time. growth, gains in educational attainment and thereby earnings, and reductions in under-five mortality and stunting. In most Estimates are provided in Table 7. The welfare benefits for cases, we estimate both immediate gains and longer-term Uganda from the lower population growth that would result gains, looking at the benefits that would accrue by 2030. This from ending child marriage and early childbearing are very allows for the estimates to account for the cumulative nature significant. If child marriage and early childbearing had ended DECEMBER 2017 | THE COST OF NOT INVESTING IN GIRLS CHILD MARRIAGE, EARLY CHILDBEARING, LOW EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT FOR GIRLS, | 8 AND THEIR IMPACTS IN UGANDA Table 7: Order of Magnitude of Selected Monetary Benefits from Ending Child Marriage Domains of Impact Annual Benefit in 2015 Annual Benefit in 2030 [Most estimates in PPP or Purchasing Power Parity] Fertility and population growth (1) Welfare cost US$95 million (PPP) US$2.4 billion (PPP) (2) Budget savings for education No benefit Up to US$257 million (current) Health, nutrition, and violence (3) Under-five mortality US$104 million (PPP) US$194 million (PPP) (4) Under-five stunting US$43 million (PPP) US$81 million (PPP) Education and earnings (5) Earnings loss for women US$514 million (PPP) Not estimated Note: Estimates for education budget savings are an upper bound and actual savings are likely to be lower. in 2015, the immediate annual benefit could have been equivalent to US$ 95 million in purchasing power parity POTENTIAL OPTIONS FOR (PPP), increasing to US$ 2.4 billion by 2030. In addition, there would be over time budget savings thanks to a reduced POLICIES AND PROGRAMS demand for public services due to lower population growth. In the education sector, ending child marriage and early To end child marriage and early childbearing, and improve childbirths could result in savings for the government of US$ educational attainment for girls, basic conditions should be 257 million (current values) by 2030. As to the benefits from met. Laws should be such that marriage before the age of the reduction in under-five mortality and stunting, they could 18 is not permitted. For educational attainment, especially be valued at US$ 275 million (PPP) by 2030. at the secondary level, there is a need to build schools closer to where children (boys and girls) live, or as an alternative, The impact of child marriage on educational attainment also provide adequate modes of transportation to schools. has implications for the earning potential of child brides as they Providing separate water, sanitation and hygiene facilities age. This is reflected in gains in earnings that would have been for girls is also important, as is the need to reduce the risk of observed today if the women who married as children had violence and sexual harassment in school. Finally, for specific been able to marry later. In Uganda, the value of the additional challenges such as intimate partner violence or gender-based earnings that women would have been able to earn in 2015 violence more generally, community-based interventions if they had not married early is estimated at $514 million in with men, women, leaders and service providers are also purchasing power parity. needed, with successful pilots existing in Uganda. In addition, based on a literature review of programs intended The second largest economic to improve young women’s sexual and reproductive health benefit from ending child outcomes, delay marriage and childbearing, and improve girls’ participation in education, a three-pronged approach marriage is higher earnings for can be recommended. women in adulthood, estimated at $514 million (purchasing Programs to provide life skills and reproductive health power parity) in 2015. knowledge: These interventions often rely on safe space programs empowering girls through life skills training, better knowledge of sexual and reproductive health, and other skills. These programs have achieved important benefits for girls, not only in terms of knowledge acquired, but also through gains in self-esteem and confidence, among others. Yet, without 9 | THE COST OF NOT INVESTING IN GIRLS CHILD MARRIAGE, EARLY CHILDBEARING, LOW EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT FOR GIRLS, AND THEIR IMPACTS IN UGANDA | DECEMBER 2017 additional livelihood opportunities or incentives for schooling, Implications for policy: it is not clear that safe spaces by themselves are sufficient to While some of the programs work better than others to delay marriage and childbearing. delay marriage and childbearing and to improve educational Programs to expand economic opportunities: attainment for girls, all three categories of programs have Interventions that combine an emphasis on empowering benefits. By targeting different groups of girls, for example girls, often through safe spaces, with a focus on providing those in school or with the potential to return to school, and livelihood opportunities have demonstrated some success in those who dropped out and may not be able to return, all increasing earnings for participants, as well as employment three categories of programs should be considered when and savings. In some cases, they may also improve implementing a strategy aiming to improve opportunities for reproductive health outcomes and delay marriage or adolescent girls. childbearing, but not systematically so. In Uganda, there is evidence that such interventions have worked well. Programs to keep girls in school or delay marriage: Interventions to promote education, especially by reducing the opportunity and out-of-pocket cost of schooling, are among the most likely to help delay the age at marriage and childbearing. Some of these programs also enable girls who dropped out to return to school. Programs providing financial incentives to girls or families directly to delay marriage may also work. CONCLUSION Demonstrating the magnitude of these costs provides While investments to end child marriage, prevent early an additional justification for investments in adolescent childbearing, and promote education for girls should not girls in Uganda. While further work would be needed be based solely on economic considerations, this note to identify the best policy options for investing in demonstrates that the benefits from such investments adolescent girls in the country, useful lessons can be would be large in Uganda. The primary motivation for learned from the international experience, including ending child marriage, preventing early childbearing, some programs implemented in Uganda. Ending child and promoting education for girls should be to address marriage, preventing early childbearing, and improving the substantial risks and suffering faced by adolescent education opportunities for girls is not only the right girls and their children. The evidence of the negative thing to do from a moral and ethical standpoint, it is also impacts of these issues on a wide range of development a smart investment for Uganda’s development. outcomes is clear. However, in addition, these issues have large economic costs. DECEMBER 2017 | THE COST OF NOT INVESTING IN GIRLS CHILD MARRIAGE, EARLY CHILDBEARING, LOW EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT FOR GIRLS, | 10 AND THEIR IMPACTS IN UGANDA APPENDIX: FRAMEWORK then estimated. A simple framework guides the analysis. As shown in Figure 1, we recognize first that girls’ education FOR ANALYZING IMPACTS and child marriage as well as early childbearing are closely linked. The literature and estimates from this series suggest AND COSTS OR BENEFITS that keeping girls in school is one of the best ways to delay marriage and childbearing. In contrast, marrying early One of the aims of this series of notes is to document the or becoming pregnant leads girls to drop out of school. impacts of girls’ education and child marriage as well as early Furthermore, child marriage is one of the main drivers of childbearing on a wide range of development outcomes. early childbearing. These relationships are acknowledged in Selected economic costs associated with those impacts are the top part of Figure A1. FIGURE A1: CONCEPTUAL FRAMEWORK OBJECTIVES ENDING CHILD EDUCATING MARRIAGE & GIRLS EARLY CHILDBEARING IMPACTS FOR GIRLS, THEIR CHILDREN & THEIR HOUSEHOLD FERTILITY HEALTH WORK AGENCY AGGREGATE COSTS & BENEFITS Income Gains Welfare Gains Budget Savings Other Benefits LOWER POVERTY AND INEQUALITY HIGHER WEALTH OF NATIONS AND SUSTAINABILITY 11 | THE COST OF NOT INVESTING IN GIRLS CHILD MARRIAGE, EARLY CHILDBEARING, LOW EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT FOR GIRLS, AND THEIR IMPACTS IN UGANDA | DECEMBER 2017 In turn, both girls’ educational attainment and child marriage/ thanks to lower population growth; (2) Higher labor earnings early childbearing matter for other development outcomes. for women in adulthood; (3) Higher labor earnings for Four main outcomes are considered: fertility, health children in adulthood thanks to less stunting; (4) Valuation (including nutrition and the risk of exposure to intimate of the benefits associated with children’s lives saved; and (5) partner violence), work (including labor force participation Reduced budget needs thanks to lower population growth. and earnings), and agency (including decision-making and This list of benefits is by no means exhaustive, but it includes other impacts). While some of these impacts are estimated some of the largest economic benefits that can be expected. for girls marrying or dropping out of school early, others are estimated for their children. Finally, we note that the benefits from educating girls and ending child marriage at the level of individuals and Selected economic costs or benefits associated with the households have broader implications at the national and impacts of girls’ education and child marriage or early even global level. By raising standards of living (through childbearing are estimated next. Examples of benefits from higher GDP per capita with lower population growth and educating girls, ending child marriage, and preventing early higher earnings for women), educating girls and ending child childbearing include (1) Higher growth in GDP per capita marriage will reduce poverty as well as inequality. DECEMBER 2017 | THE COST OF NOT INVESTING IN GIRLS CHILD MARRIAGE, EARLY CHILDBEARING, LOW EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT FOR GIRLS, | 12 AND THEIR IMPACTS IN UGANDA Recommended citation for this note: Wodon, Q., C. Male, A. Onagoruwa, A. Savadogo, and A Yedan. 2017. The Cost of Not Investing in Girls in Uganda: Child Marriage, Early Childbearing, Low Educational Attainment for Girls, and their Impacts. Washington, DC: The World Bank. This note was prepared by World Bank staff for the 10th edition of the World Bank Economic Update for Uganda. For more details on the analysis, see the background study: Wodon, Q., C. Male, A. Onagoruwa, A. Savadogo, and A. Yedan. 2017. Economic Impacts of Child Marriage, Early Childbearing, and Low Educational Attainment for Girls in Uganda. Washington, DC: The World Bank. The note relies in part on a framework designed for the Economic Impacts of Child Marriage project implemented by the World Bank in partnership with the International Center for Research on Women. Funding for that project was provided by the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, the Children’s Investment Fund Foundation, and the Global Partnership for Education. Findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this note are entirely those of the author(s) and should not be attributed in any manner to the World Bank, to its affiliated organizations or to members of its Board of Executive Directors or the countries they represent. The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this work. Information and illustrations contained in this note may be freely reproduced, published or otherwise used for noncommercial purposes without permission from the World Bank. However, the World Bank requests that the original study be cited as the source. Photo credit: Rachel Mabala. © 2017 The World Bank, Washington, DC 20433. 13 | THE COST OF NOT INVESTING IN GIRLS CHILD MARRIAGE, EARLY CHILDBEARING, LOW EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT FOR GIRLS, AND THEIR IMPACTS IN UGANDA | DECEMBER 2017 DECEMBER 2017 | THE COST OF NOT INVESTING IN GIRLS CHILD MARRIAGE, EARLY CHILDBEARING, LOW EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT FOR GIRLS, | 14 AND THEIR IMPACTS IN UGANDA THE COST OF NOT INVESTING IN GIRLS CHILD MARRIAGE, EARLY CHILDBEARING, LOW EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT FOR GIRLS, AND THEIR IMPACTS IN UGANDA