WORLDBANKGROUP G D R EUROPE ANDCENTRAL RIKPROF]LES AS1A(ECA) AFFECTED BY 100-YEAR AFFECTED BY 250-YEAR CAPITAL LOSS FROM 250-YEAR FLOOD EARTHQUAKE EARTHQUAKE GDP $192 billion* E3 Greece 0 P A IA AR IJLG G reece's population and economy the remainder generated by indus- are exposed to earthquakes and try, and agriculture making a small FYR OF MACEDONIA BLACK SEA floods, with earthquakes posing contribution. Greece's per capita the greater risk of a high impact, lower GDP was $17,800. probability event. The model results for present-day risk shown in this risk pro- This map displays GDP by provinc in reee, atua-Annu ithgrate coor al Averag of Affected GDP(% file are based on population and gross in Gec w g c r a domestic product (GDP) estimates for lion indicating greater GOP within FO 2015. The estimated damage caused by a province. The blue circles idi- Dytiki Makedonia historical events is inflated to 2015 US cate the risk of experiencing floods EARTHQUAKE dollars. and the orange circles the risk of earthquakes in terms of normalized oNgiil Just over 60 percent of Greece's pop- annual average of affected GOP The ulation lives in urban environments. largest circles represent the greatest There is a high correlation The country's GDP was approximately normalized risk The risk is estimat- (r=0.5) between the US$192 billion in 2015, with close to 80 ed using flood and earthquake risk population and GDP of a percent derived from services, most of models. province. The table displays the provinces at LGP (billions of $) TOP AFFECTED PROVINCES greatest normalized risk for each peril. In relative terms, as shown in ithethe province at greatest table, Dyti9don risk of floods is Anatoliki Makedonia, 000k DEARTHQUAKE and the one at greatest risk of earth- ANNUAL AVERAGE OF ANNUAL AVERAGE OFnole AFFECTED GaP %)gAFFECTED GOP (%)a d Te terms, the province at greatest risk a NoliPgaio Aatoliki Makedoria IDytiki Ellada 4 offloods isKentriki Makedonia, and Kai Thraki Ipeiros 3the one at greatest risk of earth - Thessalia Voreio Aigaio 2 r Ipeiros lodsioi Nisoi 2 quake e is Attiki. Kerntriki Makedonia f Kentriki Makedonia 2 Dytiki Ellada I Aniatoliki Makedornia 2 Peloporiisos Kai Thraki Dytiki Makedonia Ellada 2 ofSterea Sterea Ellada oThessalia 2 Attiki PeloponneeiSOS 2 P Ds iE lomIioi Nisoi Attiki 1 o GreceWORLDBANKGROUP GFDRPE" EL ANDEENTRAL A51A(ECA) he most damaging floods ina ffected GDP is dominated by events Greece since 1900 occurred in that happen relatively frequently 1994 and 2003, causing over If the impact of a 100-year event is $700 million and $800 million in much greater than that of a 10-year damage, respectively. event, then less frequent events make U ARIA a larger contribution to the annual This map depicts the impact of flood- BLACK SEA ing on provinces' GDPs, represented if a province's annual affected GDP as percentages of their annual aver- seems small, less frequent and more age GDPs affected, with greater color saturation indicating higher percent- impacts. A ages. The bar graphs represent GDP affected by floods with return periods The annual avenge population affect- of 10 years (white) and 100 years ed by flooding in Greece is about (black). The horizontal line across the 50,000 and the annual avenge affect- Afftad 10e r bars also shows the annual average of ed GDP about $600 million. Within GDP affected by floods. the various provinces, the 10- and 6 100-year impacts do not differ much, Thealia . Whn has When a flood a a lod 10-year return3 a1-yarrtun so relatively frequent floods have Arnnua[I average period, it means the probability of large impacts on these averages. occurrence of a flood of that magni- -year -year tude or greater is 10 percent per year. VorcioAigaio A 100-year flood has a probability lonioi Nisoi Sterea Eada of occurrence of 1 percent per year. This means that over a long period of time, a flood of that magnitude will, Attik on average, occur once every 100 years. It does not mean a 100-year flood will occur exactly once every 100 years. In fact, it is possible for a flood of any return period to occur NotiaAigaic more than once in the same year, or to appear in consecutive years, or not to happen at all over a long period of time. If the 10- and 100-year bars are the I same height, then the impact of a 10- -0Kr- year event is as large as that of a 100- a year event, and the annual avengge of WORLDBANKGROUP GFR ELROP AND A5IA(ECA) ECENTRAL reece's worst earthquake of time, an earthquake of that mag- events can be substantially larger since 1900, with a magni- nitude will, on avenge, occur once than the annual avenges. For exam- tude of 7.2, took place in every 100 years. It does not mean ple, an earthquake with a 0.4 percent 1953 in Kefalonia and caused over a 100-yearearthquakewill occur annualprobabilityof occurrence (a 450 fatalities. Many people left the exactly once every 100 years. In 250-year return period event) could iG U AR IA island after the event, reducing its fact, it is possible for an earthquake cause nearly 2,000 fatalities and $20 population to a mere 20 percent of any return period to occur more billion in capital loss (about 8 percent BLACK SEA of its size before the disaster. The than once in the same year, orto of GDP). same region was also hit by earth- appear in consecutive years, or not TURKEY quakes in 1867 and 2011. A 1999 to happen at all over a long period earthquake in Athens caused close of time. to 150 deaths and over $6 billion in damage. More recently, in 2014, If the 10- and 100-year bars are an earthquake in southern Greece the same height, then the impact Affected GOP for caused three fatalities and almost 10 and 100-year return periods $500 million in damage. that ofa 100-year event, and the One block = 10% annual average of affected GDP is 6 This map depicts the impact of dominated by events that happen earthquakes on provinces' GDPs, relatively frequently. If the impact Annual average represented as percentages of their of a 100-year event is much greater annual average GDPs affected, with than that of a 10-year event, then greater color saturation indicat- less frequent events make larger IonoiNiso ing higher percentages. The bar contributions to the annual average graphs represent GDP affected by of affected GOP. Thus, even if a Annual Average of Affected GDP (%) earthquakes with return periods province's annual affected GDP of 10 years (white) and 100 years seems small, less frequent and (black). The horizontal line across more intense events can still have the bars also shows the annual large impacts. average of GDP affected by earth- quakes. The annual average population affected by earthquakes in Greece -NotiRikigaic - When an earthquake has a 10-year is about 200,000 and the annual av- return period, it means the prob- enge affected GDP about $3 billion. ability of occurrence of an earth- The annual averages of fatalities quake of that magnitude or greater and capital losses caused by earth- is 10 percent per year. A 100-year quakesareabout50andabout earthquake has a probability of $700 million, respectively. The occurrence of 1 percent per year. fatalities and capital losses caused This means that over a long period by more intense, less frequent mg e WORLDBANKGROUP A51A(ECA) ROPE AND CENTRAL E|GDR EARTHQUAKE EARTHQUAKE ANNUAL AVERAGE CAPITAL LOSS (MILLIONS$) ANNUAL AVERAGE FATALITIES he rose diagrams show the provinces with the potential ;06.for greatest annual average capital losses and highest annual average numbers of fatalities, as determined using an earthquake risk model. The potential for greatest capital riti 20 Dy ki Ellada 70 ilonioi Nisai 1 Krloss occurs in Attiki, which is not surprising, given the eco- nomic importance of the province. ) i EARTHQUAKE h xednepoaiiycre ipa h D EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITY CURVE, 2015 AND 2080 EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITY CURVE, 2015 AND 2080 T affected by, respectively, floods and earthquakes for 12 800 varying probabilities of occurrence. Values, for two different Z, time periods are shown. A solid line depicts the affected 10 GDP fQr 2015 conditions. A diagonally striped band depicts 10 2080 20800 8 2the range of affected GDP based-on a selection of climiate 8 and Socioeconomic scenarios for 2080. For example, if 6 40 208 Z.J Greece had experienced a 100-year return period flood 1event in 201, the affected GOPwould have-been an esti 2015 4mated $3 bdEonXn 2080, however, the affected GP from 200 '~the samefi type of event would range from about $5 billionl 20r /201 to about $10 billion. If Greece had experienced a 250-year earthquake event in 2015, the affected GDP would have been about $90 billion. In 2080, the affected GDP from the same type of event would range rom about $200 billion to about $800 billion, due to population growth, urbanization, about..$90 bilin In.. been.... 208..heafecedGD.fomth the inc rease in expos assets.ened to about$10and All historical data on floods and earthquakes are from D.Guha-Sapir, R.Below, and Ph. Hoyois, EM-DAT: International Disaster Database (Universit6 Catholique de Louvain, Brussels, Belgium), www.emdat.be; the National Geophysical Data Center/World Data Service (NGDC/WDS), Significant Earthquake Database (National Geophysical Data Center, NOAA), doi:10.7289/V5TD9V7K; and L Daniell and A.Schaefer, "Eastern Europe and Central Asia Region Earthquake Risk Assessment Country and Province Profiling," final report to GFDRR, 2014. Damage estimates for all historical events have been inflated to 2015 US$