103028 For more information, visit http://www.worldbank.org/prospects December 11, 2015 Taking Stock  Eurozone GDP growth was confirmed at 0.3 percent in Q3. A second estimate from Eurostat confirmed that the Eurozone economy advanced at a slower 0.3 percent (q/q) pace in Q3, supported by household consumption, following a 0.4 percent expansion in Q2. Meanwhile, the Sentix investor confidence index for the Eurozone rose more than expected, from 15.1 in November to 15.7 in December, the highest level in four months.  Russia remained in recession in Q3. Amid the slump in oil prices and international sanctions, Russian GDP fell 0.6 percent (q/q) in Q3, the fifth consecutive quarterly contraction, but less than the revised 1.3 percent drop in Q2 (Figure 1). A pick-up in activity in agriculture, mining production, transport and communication, and financial services helped mitigate a decline in manufacturing, utilities, construction, and real estate activities.  Brazil’s consumer price inflation climbed to a 12-year high. Led by an increase in energy costs, Brazil's consumer price index rose 10.5 percent (y/y) in November, up from 9.9 percent in October (Figure 2). The latest reading, the highest since November 2003, was slightly more than expected. Meanwhile, Moody's Investors Service placed Brazil's bond ratings on review for a downgrade, citing deteriorating fiscal trends and worsening governability conditions.  Turkey’s GDP rose more than expected in Q3. The Turkish economy advanced 4.0 percent (y/y) in Q3, above expectations, boosted by government expenditure and net exports. The Q3 reading, the highest since Q1 2014, followed a 3.8 percent (y/y) expansion in Q2. At the same time, Turkey's industrial production growth surged to a 4- month high of 4.6 percent (y/y) in October, more-than-expected and higher than the 2.8 percent in September. Increases in manufacturing output and utility production more than offset a reduction in mining and quarrying output.  Mozambique announced foreign exchange controls. Mozambique’s central bank said it will set the limit for citizens using credit and debit cards abroad at 700,000 meticals ($13,600) a year, in a bid to stave off a shortage of foreign currency. The metical depreciated by 36 percent against the U.S. dollar this year. Efforts by the central bank to defend the currency led to a decline in foreign reserves. FIGURE 1 Russian GDP fell 0.6 percent in Q3, easing FIGURE 2 Brazil’s consumer price inflation reached a The number of people employed in the eurozone rose by 0.1 per cent in the fourth quarter of 2014 compared with the previous three m. from the previous quarter. 12-year high in November. Figures released by Eurostat, the EU statistics bureau, also showed that employment was 0.9 per cen Percent, quarter-on-quarter Percent, year on year 1.0 11 0.5 10 0.0 9 8 -0.5 7 -1.0 6 -1.5 5 Q1 2012 Q3 2012 Q1 2013 Q3 2013 Q1 2014 Q3 2014 Q1 2015 Q3 2015 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jul-14 May-15 Jul-15 Mar-14 May-14 Sep-14 Mar-15 Nov-14 Sep-15 Nov-15 t higher at the end of the fourthuarter than at the same point 12 months earlier. Source: Haver Analytics. Equivalent figures for the whole EU were increases of 0.2 per cent and 1.0 per cent respectively. Source: Haver Analytics. Eurostat estimates that 226.7m adults were employed in the EU, with 148.6m of those living in the eurozone. In its latest unemployment figures, released at the end of January, the seasonally-adjusted unemployment rate was 11.4 per cent in December 2014, down from 11.5 per cent in November 2014, and from 11.8 per cent in December 2013. This was the lowest rate in the single currency bloc since August 2012. Produced by DECPG (Derek Chen). The EU28 unemployment rate was 9.9 per cent in December 2014, down from 10.0 per cent in November 2014 and from 10.6 per cent in December 2013. Number 286 | December 11, 2015 This was the first time the rate for the EU28 has fallen below 10.0 per cent since October 2011. Weekly Insight: Potential Impact of Iran Nuclear Agreement on Energy Markets An international agreement on the Islamic Republic of Iran’s nuclear program was reached in July and is expected to be implemented in the first half of 2016. Sanctions will be lifted at that time and terminated in 2023. The impact of Iranian exports on global oil and natural gas markets could be large over the longer term provided that Iran attracts the necessary foreign investment and technology it needs to extract its substantial resources.  The nuclear agreement with Iran places limitations on Iran’s nuclear program and lifts nuclear-related sanctions by the United Nations Security Council, the European Union, and the United States. The UN Security Council endorsed the nuclear agreement with Iran – known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPA 2015) – on July 20, 2015. The JCPA came into effect on October 18 (“Adoption Day”). Upon International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) verification that Iran has implemented required measures, the agreement will enter into force in the first half of 2016. At that time, Iran could begin to increase its crude oil exports, which are currently capped at about 1.1 million barrels per day (mb/d). Provisions are in place to snap back if Iran is deemed to have violated its commitments. Sanctions end eight years after adoption day. The United Nations resolution that adopted the agreement terminates after 10 years, while some nuclear restrictions and IAEA access and verification extend for 15 years.  Upon the lifting of sanctions, Iran could almost immediately start exporting its 40 million barrels of oil in floating storage. Within a few months of sanctions being lifted, Iran could raise crude oil production by 0.5-0.7 mb/d, potentially reaching a pre-sanctions output level of 3.6 mb/d, or about 4 percent of global oil consumption. It could take longer to substantially increase production, however, because some oil fields could require rehabilitation. Any increase in Iranian oil exports would enter a market that is already amply supplied, and in which OPEC members and Russia are vying for market share, especially in Asia. Iran will quickly seek to regain its earlier market share, particularly in Europe, where it lost 0.7 mb/d in sales due to sanctions. Anticipation of Iran’s exports has already contributed to lower prices in recent months. In the longer term, Iran has substantial reserves – 9.3 percent of the world total – to raise production significantly (Figure 3). However, raising capacity will be costly and require foreign investment and technology. To attract investment in a climate of sharp cutbacks by international companies, Iran may have to offer incentives. The government is planning to soon present a new oil contract model to international investors.  Over the long term, Iran also has the potential to produce and export significant volumes of natural gas. Iran has the world’s largest known reserves of natural gas, ahead of the Russian Federation (Figure 4). It could over time develop gas export capacity through pipelines to neighboring countries and to Europe through Turkey, and eventually transport liquefied natural gas to Europe and Asia. Iran may utilize its gas reserves to promote domestic gas-based industries and inject gas into oil fields to help expand production and exports. Moving up the value chain, Iran might also use gas to export higher value-added electricity and petrochemicals. The impact of Iran’s exports on regional gas prices will depend on global gas demand and the ability of markets to absorb the gas. The increasing number of actual and potential gas exporters on the horizon creates uncertainty, as does the changing structure of gas demand due to environmental pressures. FIGURE 3 Iran has substantial reserves to raise oil production FIGURE 4 Iran has the largest known reserves of natural gas. significantly. Venezuela Iran, Islamic Rep. Saudi Arabia Russian Federation Canada Qatar Iran, Islamic Rep. 9.3% of Turkmenistan Iraq 18.2% of world total United States Russian Federation Saudi Arabia world total Kuwait United Arab Emirates United Arab Emirates Venezuela United States Nigeria Libya Algeria Nigeria Australia Kazakhstan Iraq Qatar China China Indonesia Brazil Canada 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 0 10 20 30 40 billion barrels trillion cubic metres Source: BP Statistical Review and World Bank. Source: BP Statistical Review and World Bank. Produced by DECPG (Commodities team). Number 286 | December 11, 2015 Major Data Releases Fri, 4 Dec - Thu, 10 Dec 2015 Upcoming releases: Fri, 11 Dec - Thu, 17 Dec 2015 Country Date Indicator Period Actual Forecast Previous Country Date Indicator Period Previous United States 12/4/2015 Unemployment Rate NOV 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% Germany 12/11/2015 CPI (Y/Y) NOV 0.3% Euro Area 12/8/2015 GDP (Q/Q) Q3 0.3% 0.3% 0.4% China 12/12/2015 Retail Sales (Y/Y) NOV 11.0% Brazil 12/9/2015 CPI (Y/Y) NOV 10.5% 10.3% 9.9% Turkey 12/15/2015 Unemployment Rate SEP 10.4% Malaysia 12/9/2015 Industrial Production (Y/Y) OCT 4.2% 4.5 % 5.1% Eurozone 12/16/2015 PMI Composite DEC 54.2 Philippines 12/10/2015 Unemployment Rate Q3 5.6% 6.5% 6.5% Brazil 12/16/2015 Retail Sales (Y/Y) OCT -6.2% Turkey 12/10/2015 GDP (Q/Q) Q3 1.3% 1.0% 1.3% South Africa 12/17/2015 PPI (Y/Y) NOV 4.2% Economic Developments indicators expressed as %ch y/y, except Industrial Production quarterly figures are %ch q/q, annualized 2014 2015 2014 2015 2012 2013 2014 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Industrial Production, S.A. World 2.9 2.5 3.3 2.2 2.5 4.0 1.6 1.2 3.4 3.3 2.5 3.3 3.0 2.8 3.3 2.7 2.5 2.5 2.3 2.1 2.6 2.1 2.5 1.8 2.0 High Income Countries 0.7 0.3 2.0 0.3 0.5 3.1 2.1 -1.5 2.1 2.2 1.0 1.5 1.6 1.3 1.8 1.7 1.4 1.4 1.1 0.8 1.2 0.9 1.3 0.8 0.7 Developing Countries 6.8 5.9 5.2 5.0 5.4 5.2 0.8 5.2 5.3 5.0 4.8 5.9 5.0 5.0 5.4 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.0 3.8 4.6 3.9 4.2 3.2 3.9 East Asia and Pacific 9.4 9.0 7.5 7.7 6.7 8.5 1.7 6.8 8.5 7.7 6.5 7.5 7.0 6.5 7.4 6.5 6.1 5.8 5.9 5.5 6.2 5.7 5.9 5.0 5.1 East Asia x. China 6.3 5.5 3.0 6.7 5.6 9.5 -4.0 2.8 4.8 0.9 3.2 5.5 4.3 3.1 5.0 4.3 2.2 6.5 5.1 1.8 3.1 4.4 4.3 1.4 - Europe and Central Asia 9.7 2.3 3.3 1.0 1.6 0.0 2.6 3.9 2.9 3.5 2.3 2.6 2.6 1.9 1.2 -0.5 1.8 2.6 1.4 1.2 3.5 0.8 4.1 2.8 - Latin America and Caribbean -0.3 1.2 -0.3 -3.3 0.3 -2.5 -4.7 -4.3 -3.2 -0.4 -0.4 -0.8 -0.3 -1.9 -1.1 -2.3 -2.6 -2.8 -3.0 -3.4 -2.1 -3.6 -4.0 -4.6 - Middle East and N. Africa 6.0 -7.7 -1.4 0.3 27.4 0.6 -17.8 13.2 -7.3 -2.6 9.4 17.7 11.0 13.3 7.7 -0.7 -0.6 5.6 4.4 6.8 2.4 2.8 0.4 - - South Asia 1.1 1.8 2.5 5.1 0.6 -1.8 12.5 8.3 4.7 1.6 1.9 3.5 -1.5 5.8 4.2 3.4 5.1 3.4 4.4 4.3 5.6 5.1 7.4 3.8 - Sub-Saharan Africa 3.2 1.1 0.2 1.7 -5.9 9.3 -1.2 -5.4 0.6 -7.3 -0.6 6.2 1.4 -0.8 0.4 -1.2 0.1 3.6 -1.8 -0.3 -0.8 5.1 0.7 0.4 - Inflation, S.A. 1 High Income Countries 2.3 2.1 2.8 3.0 3.0 2.9 2.4 2.0 3.1 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.1 2.9 2.8 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.0 2.0 1.9 1.8 1.6 1.3 1.3 Developing Countries 6.0 6.3 5.4 5.5 5.4 5.0 5.0 5.4 5.4 5.6 5.5 5.2 5.0 4.8 5.0 4.7 5.1 5.2 5.4 5.4 5.5 5.2 5.2 5.2 5.2 East Asia and Pacific 2.9 3.0 2.6 2.9 2.5 2.2 1.8 2.0 3.0 2.7 2.5 2.2 2.1 2.2 2.3 1.5 2.0 2.0 2.2 1.9 2.0 2.2 2.4 2.0 1.7 Europe and Central Asia 9.0 6.5 7.9 7.9 8.5 8.9 9.1 10.7 8.0 8.2 8.6 8.7 8.9 9.1 8.6 8.3 9.0 9.8 11.0 11.0 10.1 9.7 9.7 10.1 10.1 Latin America and Caribbean 4.8 5.1 5.1 4.9 5.3 5.3 5.8 6.4 5.0 5.3 5.3 5.4 5.3 5.3 5.2 5.4 5.7 6.2 6.1 6.3 6.6 6.9 6.9 6.9 7.2 Middle East and N. Africa 13.8 19.2 10.9 9.7 10.0 10.7 10.8 11.4 9.1 9.9 10.2 10.1 10.4 10.5 11.2 10.3 10.9 11.1 11.3 11.7 11.2 9.6 8.7 8.6 8.0 South Asia 9.4 10.1 6.6 7.8 6.7 4.2 5.0 4.8 6.8 7.4 6.9 5.8 4.7 3.5 4.4 5.1 5.1 4.9 4.6 4.8 5.1 3.5 3.6 4.1 4.6 Sub-Saharan Africa 11.1 8.1 9.0 9.2 9.7 8.4 7.5 8.4 9.7 9.9 10.1 9.3 8.3 8.4 8.5 7.6 7.5 7.5 8.0 8.2 9.0 8.8 8.7 8.8 9.0 1 Inflation is calculated as the GDP-weighted average for all groups. Trade and Finance indicators expressed as %ch y/y, except International Reserves are %ch p/p and trade quarterly figures are %ch q/q, annualized Jul-05 Jul-05 Jul-05 Jul-05 2012 2013 2014 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Exports, Nominal, US$, S.A. World 0.3 1.8 1.0 4.2 0.9 -16.0 -27.5 -1.4 3.5 5.2 0.8 2.7 -1.5 -4.6 -4.0 -11.0 -7.3 -13.3 -13.7 -13.6 -8.1 -13.7 -13.4 -12.1 - High Income Countries -1.2 1.3 0.7 1.3 -2.9 -19.0 -29.0 0.4 2.9 4.7 -0.5 0.9 -3.4 -6.4 -5.6 -12.7 -13.5 -13.7 -15.2 -15.4 -9.8 -14.9 -14.9 -13.1 - Developing Countries 4.0 3.2 1.9 11.4 10.6 -8.8 -24.1 -5.3 5.1 6.3 3.8 7.0 3.3 -0.3 -0.2 -7.1 8.4 -12.4 -10.0 -9.2 -3.9 -10.7 -10.0 -9.8 -10.6 East Asia and Pacific 6.3 6.4 4.7 18.9 17.3 0.0 -16.5 -11.2 7.9 11.5 8.2 12.5 7.9 3.4 5.6 -3.4 29.4 -11.6 -6.5 -4.3 0.6 -7.8 -6.2 -5.4 -8.0 Europe and Central Asia 1.9 -0.5 -1.3 -7.3 -10.3 -28.2 -17.0 -14.9 3.6 3.4 -4.6 -2.4 -6.0 -10.9 -14.0 -13.6 -16.2 -18.3 -16.8 -21.4 -15.3 -20.3 -15.6 -13.1 - Latin America and Caribbean 2.4 0.6 0.0 8.5 3.0 -23.6 -18.3 -3.1 2.4 6.5 0.6 1.2 -3.5 -7.5 -6.0 -7.8 -12.3 -5.5 -11.9 -14.5 -7.1 -11.2 -16.1 -14.1 -11.2 Middle East and N. Africa 5.6 -11.1 -7.5 -1.5 26.0 -11.1 -60.0 - -8.8 -18.1 -1.7 2.0 16.5 -3.4 -10.4 -15.5 -21.8 -18.1 -11.1 - - - - - - South Asia -1.8 6.2 2.6 11.1 -0.2 -3.4 -45.0 7.3 8.9 -0.3 1.4 0.1 -6.5 8.7 -0.6 -7.5 -12.5 -17.2 -12.6 -16.7 -9.9 -10.6 -16.1 -22.2 -13.8 Sub-Saharan Africa -2.5 -1.1 -5.9 -8.3 -4.0 -29.6 -47.8 13.8 -1.3 -0.3 -9.5 -2.5 -10.8 -11.5 -12.4 -26.0 -28.6 -18.6 -25.6 -16.76 -18.6 - - - - Imports, Nominal, US$, S.A. World 0.6 1.6 1.2 -1.5 -0.6 -14.2 -30.3 -2.8 5.1 3.1 0.9 3.8 -2.1 -4.1 -3.1 -13.3 -12.9 -11.4 -14.2 -15.3 -9.0 -13.2 -12.7 -15.4 - High Income Countries -1.1 0.5 1.8 0.3 -4.2 -16.7 -27.9 -2.8 6.1 5.4 0.7 2.4 -3.3 -5.3 -3.7 -13.1 -13.0 -12.4 -15.0 -15.3 -10.3 -14.7 -12.2 -13.7 - Developing Countries 4.9 4.1 0.0 -5.6 8.2 -8.4 -35.4 -2.9 3.0 -2.1 1.3 7.3 0.8 -1.4 -1.9 -13.6 -12.7 -9.0 -12.4 -15.2 -6.0 -9.5 -13.8 -19.4 -16.8 East Asia and Pacific 5.6 6.1 -0.4 -12.6 9.9 -10.0 -39.1 0.9 2.9 -3.1 -0.4 6.6 2.4 -5.3 -3.7 -17.2 -17.0 -9.6 -14.0 -15.8 -5.2 -9.0 -14.2 -19.6 -18.3 Europe and Central Asia 0.8 2.6 -6.2 -7.6 -8.1 -7.1 -29.4 -19.5 -1.9 -11.2 -4.8 -5.6 -7.9 -9.4 -9.8 -15.4 -12.8 -12.5 -17.4 -18.0 -14.1 -15.1 -17.9 -22.7 - Latin America and Caribbean 4.0 3.8 1.7 1.7 5.0 -5.3 -19.4 -16.6 4.9 0.7 1.6 8.7 -2.7 2.7 5.4 -7.4 -6.9 -0.4 -10.4 -14.5 -3.8 -9.8 -12.6 -13.5 -13.6 Middle East and N. Africa 10.8 4.0 1.4 -6.5 11.8 -18.0 -23.0 - -2.0 0.5 10.3 5.0 -1.5 -4.3 -2.7 -11.2 -7.0 -11.3 -7.5 - - - - - - South Asia 4.0 -3.8 1.1 9.0 30.3 -10.2 -54.7 23.9 8.6 2.5 5.1 23.5 6.7 21.1 -1.4 -12.3 -13.3 -12.8 -7.5 -12.0 -10.3 -9.9 -11.4 -24.5 -20.0 Sub-Saharan Africa 4.2 5.9 5.3 19.0 -4.5 10.5 -29.8 - 5.5 3.8 6.9 9.2 4.9 3.6 8.6 -1.8 2.1 -9.6 -9.8 - - - - - - International Reserves, US$ High Income Countries 9.2 3.2 -1.9 0.7 -1.9 -1.5 -0.4 0.4 0.5 -0.5 -0.1 -1.4 -0.7 0.1 -0.8 0.3 -0.1 -0.6 0.8 -0.3 -0.1 -0.6 0.2 0.7 - Developing Countries 5.5 8.7 -0.2 1.5 -1.9 -1.7 -2.5 0.0 0.5 -0.1 0.0 -1.7 -0.7 -0.2 -0.8 -0.7 -0.2 -1.6 0.7 -0.6 -0.2 -1.0 -1.8 -1.3 0.3 East Asia and Pacific 4.5 12.2 0.2 1.2 -2.5 -1.4 -2.8 -0.8 0.3 -0.5 0.1 -2.1 -0.8 -0.3 -0.4 -0.8 -0.2 -1.9 0.6 -0.9 -0.4 -1.3 -2.4 -1.2 0.4 Europe and Central Asia 11.4 3.5 -8.2 4.2 -0.5 -7.2 -6.2 1.0 1.2 -0.5 1.4 -1.4 -1.5 -1.1 -4.7 -1.7 -2.8 -1.9 0.9 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.4 -0.9 - Latin America and Caribbean 9.9 1.8 3.6 3.3 1.5 -1.8 -0.1 0.7 1.3 1.2 0.1 0.2 -0.1 0.4 -2.2 0.4 -0.6 0.0 0.7 -0.1 0.1 -0.4 -0.8 -2.0 -0.7 Middle East and N. Africa 5.9 3.0 -10.3 -2.2 -3.8 -2.8 -5.9 1.5 -0.6 -0.4 -1.1 -2.3 -0.2 0.3 -2.9 -3.3 -0.4 -2.3 1.7 -0.64 0.1 - - - - South Asia 0.4 -0.2 11.3 5.6 -0.6 2.1 5.9 4.7 1.5 1.3 -0.4 -1.4 0.5 -0.3 1.9 1.8 3.2 0.8 1.5 1.7 1.5 -0.5 -0.3 -0.5 1.2 Produced by DECPG (Trang Nguyen, Xinghao Gong). Number 286 | December 11, 2015 Financial Markets 1 2013 2014 2014 2015 2014 2015 MRV 2013 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Interest rates and LIBOR (%) U.S. Fed Funds Effective 0.11 0.12 0.09 0.09 0.07 0.09 0.09 0.10 0.11 0.13 0.09 0.09 0.09 0.12 0.12 0.11 0.11 0.12 0.12 0.13 0.13 0.15 0.14 0.12 0.12 0.13 ECB repo 0.55 0.59 0.50 0.35 0.25 0.22 0.12 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.06 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 US$ LIBOR 3-months 0.27 0.28 0.26 0.24 0.24 0.23 0.23 0.24 0.26 0.28 0.23 0.23 0.23 0.25 0.25 0.26 0.27 0.28 0.28 0.28 0.29 0.32 0.33 0.32 0.37 0.49 EURIBOR 3-months 0.15 0.13 0.15 0.20 0.27 0.27 0.13 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.06 US 10-yr Treasury yield 2.33 1.98 2.70 2.73 2.75 2.61 2.49 2.27 1.96 2.15 2.52 2.29 2.32 2.20 1.88 1.98 2.04 1.92 2.19 2.35 2.32 2.14 2.14 2.04 2.26 2.22 German Bund, 10 yr 1.63 1.41 1.79 1.79 1.68 1.43 1.07 0.77 0.35 0.53 1.00 0.87 0.79 0.64 0.45 0.35 0.26 0.16 0.58 0.83 0.76 0.66 0.68 0.55 0.55 0.60 Spreads (basis points) JP Morgan Emerging Markets 319 308 347 342 352 300 301 367 425 380 312 349 350 402 443 420 411 388 369 384 397 397 442 437 413 426 Asia 219 202 254 237 231 197 195 202 219 201 187 207 193 206 233 215 208 206 195 203 212 212 250 246 235 250 Europe 267 254 299 290 301 265 262 319 399 336 270 295 293 368 417 396 384 350 327 330 328 328 347 332 294 299 Latin America & Caribbean 379 370 406 409 429 360 366 471 537 487 390 443 455 516 560 531 521 488 471 504 527 527 585 582 553 568 Middle East 435 460 438 428 408 376 369 398 449 420 358 395 388 411 452 452 443 441 409 410 420 420 479 502 503 524 Africa 322 312 359 338 332 287 280 319 373 355 270 307 306 343 385 364 371 361 345 358 374 374 472 490 482 507 Stock Indices (end of period) 2 Global (MSCI) 409 356 382 409 411 429 417 417 425 424 417 419 426 417 410 432 425 436 435 424 427 403 382 411 407 400 High-Income ($ Index) 1661 1434 1544 1661 1674 1743 1698 1710 1741 1736 1698 1708 1740 1710 1678 1773 1741 1778 1779 1736 1766 1659 1582 1706 1694 1664 United States (S&P-500) 1848 1606 1682 1848 1872 1960 1972 2059 2068 2063 1972 2018 2068 2059 1995 2105 2068 2086 2107 2063 2104 1992 1920 2079 2080 2048 Euro Area (S&P-350$) 1339 1165 1267 1339 1361 1401 1411 1401 1624 1552 1411 1382 1425 1401 1502 1603 1624 1618 1630 1552 1614 1478 1405 1523 1558 1468 Japan (Nikkei-225) 16291 13677 14456 16291 14828 15162 16174 17674 19207 20236 16174 16414 17460 17451 17674 18798 19207 19520 20563 20236 20585 18812 17388 19083 19921 19059 Developing Markets (MSCI) 1003 940 987 1003 995 1051 1005 956 975 972 1005 1016 1005 956 962 990 975 1048 1004 972 902 882 792 848 814 795 EM Asia 446 413 431 446 444 472 460 457 481 475 460 467 467 457 468 479 481 514 499 475 440 433 391 422 408 399 EM Europe 438 409 446 438 409 435 374 297 302 311 374 369 353 297 286 313 302 338 320 311 293 285 259 273 263 248 EM Europe & Middle East 372 348 379 372 348 360 321 257 258 266 321 314 303 257 247 269 258 286 271 266 253 246 226 235 222 211 EM Latin America & Caribbean 3201 3187 3303 3201 3194 3370 3171 2728 2451 2517 3171 3158 3008 2728 2555 2654 2451 2693 2496 2517 2305 2206 1895 2007 1919 1936 Exchange Rates (LCU / USD) High Income Euro Area 0.75 0.77 0.75 0.73 0.73 0.73 0.76 0.80 0.89 0.90 0.78 0.79 0.80 0.81 0.86 0.88 0.92 0.92 0.90 0.9 0.91 0.89 0.89 0.89 0.93 0.91 Japan 97.61 98.68 98.88 100.51 102.78 102.14 104.04 114.62 119.16 121.38 107.39 108.02 116.40 119.44 118.33 118.78 120.37 119.53 120.87 123.7 123.39 122.71 120.10 120.01 122.61 121.36 Developing Brazil 2.16 2.07 2.29 2.28 2.36 2.23 2.28 2.55 2.87 3.07 2.34 2.45 2.55 2.65 2.64 2.82 3.15 3.04 3.06 3.1 3.23 3.53 3.89 3.88 3.78 3.75 China 6.15 6.15 6.13 6.09 6.10 6.23 6.16 6.15 6.24 6.20 6.14 6.13 6.13 6.19 6.22 6.25 6.24 6.20 6.20 6.2 6.21 6.34 6.38 6.35 6.37 6.43 Egypt 6.87 6.95 6.97 6.89 6.96 7.07 7.15 7.15 7.49 7.61 7.15 7.15 7.15 7.15 7.27 7.59 7.60 7.60 7.62 7.6 7.81 7.83 7.83 7.91 7.91 7.82 India 58.55 55.91 62.14 62.00 61.75 59.82 60.59 61.96 62.24 63.43 60.87 61.40 61.70 62.77 62.20 62.06 62.48 62.69 63.76 63.8 63.65 65.09 66.16 65.04 66.15 66.84 Russia 31.86 31.67 32.79 32.56 35.07 34.96 36.31 47.98 62.87 52.69 38.01 40.96 46.30 56.67 64.33 64.16 60.13 52.82 50.65 54.6 57.53 66.23 67.10 63.31 65.01 69.35 South Africa 9.65 9.50 9.99 10.16 10.86 10.54 10.77 11.22 11.74 12.08 10.99 11.06 11.09 11.51 11.56 11.58 12.08 11.99 11.97 12.3 12.46 12.94 13.67 13.48 14.14 14.88 Memo: USA nominal effective rate104.85 104.08 106.03 106.41 108.45 108.81 110.75 114.29 120.07 121.87 111.87 112.87 114.06 115.94 118.13 119.99 122.10 121.76 121.40 122.4 123.89 126.13 127.52 126.92 128.15 129.01 1 MRV = Most Recent Value. 2 MSCI Indices for Asia, Africa, and Europe and C. Asia, for 2008 are calculated from February-December, due to data availability. 3 Change expressed in levels for interest rates and spreads; percent change for stock market and exchange rates. Commodity Prices 2013 2014 2014 2015 2015 MRV 2013 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Oil price, $/b, nominal 1 104 99 107 105 104 106 100 75 52 60 96 86 77 61 47 55 53 57 63 61 54 45 46 47 43 38 Non - Oil Index 2 79 80 77 77 77 78 74 71 66 64 72 71 72 70 67 66 64 64 65 63 63 59 58 58 56 59 3 Metals and Minerals Index 94 91 91 92 88 87 89 83 74 73 87 84 84 80 75 74 73 73 76 72 67 64 65 63 59 57 Baltic Dry Index 4 1215 889 1298 1876 1375 980 954 1105 614 629 1123 1101 1332 881 727 539 576 591 596 699 975 1061 889 790 582 546 1 Simple average of Brent, Dubai and WTI. 2 Base Date = Jan 3, 2011 due to data availability. The Index component combination in the Weekly tables differs from that of the Pink Sheet. 3 Base Date = Jan 4, 2010 due to data availability. The Index component combination in the Weekly tables differs from that of the Pink Sheet. 4 Base Date = May 1, 1985 Produced by DECPG (Trang Nguyen, Xinghao Gong). Number 286 | December 11, 2015