________ ______ itc. vIn9S WORLD BANK TECHNICAL PAPER NUMBER 287 Cotton Production Prospects for the Next Decade Fred E. M. Gillham, Thomas M. Bell, Tijen Arin, Graham A. Matthews, Claude Le Rumeur, and A. Brian Hearn 'p~~~~~~~~~' RECENT WORLD BANK TECHNICAL PAPERS No. 211 Wiebers, Integrated Pest Management and Pesticide Regulation in Developing Asia No. 212 Frederiksen, Berkoff, and Barber, Water Resources Management in Asia, Volume 1: Main Report No. 213 Srivastava and Jaffee, Best Practices for Moving Seed Technology: New Approaches to Doing Business No. 214 Bonfiglioli, Agro-pastoralism in Chad as a Strategy for Survival: An Essay on the Relationship between Anthropology and Statistics No. 215 Umali, Irrigation-Induced Salinity: A Growing Problemfor Development and the Environment No. 216 Carr, Improving Cash Crops in Africa: Factors Influencing the Productivity of Cotton, Coffee, and Tea Grown by Smallholders No. 217 Antholt, Getting Readyfor the Twenty-First Century: Technical Change and Institutional Modernization in Agriculture No. 218 Mohan, editor, Bibliography of Publications: Technical Department, Africa Region, July 1987 to December 1992 No. 219 Cercone, Alcohol-Related Problems as an Obstacle to the Development of Human Capital: Issues and Policy Options No. 220 Kingsley, Ferguson, Bower, and Dice, Managing Urban Environmental Quality in Asia No. 221 Srivastava, Tamboli, English, Lal, and Stewart, Conserving Soil Moisture and Fertility in the Warm Seasonally Dry Tropics No. 222 Selvaratnam, Innovations in Higher Education: Singapore at the Competitive Edge No. 223 Piotrow, Treiman, Rimon, Yun, and Lozare, Strategiesfor Family Planning Promotion No. 224 Midgley, Urban Transport in Asia: An Operational Agendafor the 1990s No. 225 Dia, A Governance Approach to Civil Service Reform in Sub-Saharan Africa No. 226 Bindlish, Evenson, and Gbetibouo, Evaluation of T&V-Based Extension in Burkina Faso No. 227 Cook, editor, Involuntary Resettlement in Africa: Selected Papersfrom a Coniference on Environment and Settlement Issues in Africa No. 228 Webster and Charap, The Emergence of Private Sector Manufacturing in St. Petersburg: A Survey of Firms No. 229 Webster, The Emergence of Private Sector Manufacturing in Hungary: A Survey of Firms No. 230 Webster and Swanson, The Emergence of Private Sector Manufacturing in the Former Czech and Slovak Federal Republic: A Survey of Firms No. 231 Eisa, Barghouti, Gillham, and Al-Saffy, Cotton Production Prospectsfor the Decade to 2005: A Global Overview No. 232 Creightney, Transport and Economic Performance: A Survey of Developing Countries No. 233 Frederiksen, Berkoff, and Barber, Principles and Practicesfor Dealing with Water Resources Issues No. 234 Archondo-Callao and Faiz, Estimating Vehicle Operating Costs No. 235 Claessens, Risk Management in Developing Countries No. 236 Bennett and Goldberg, Providing Enterprise Development and Financial Services to Women: A Decade of Bank Experience in Asia No. 237 Webster, The Emergence of Private Sector Manufacturinig in Poland: A Survey of Firms No. 238 Heath, Land Rights in C6te d'lvoire: Survey and Prospectsfor Project Intervention No. 239 Kirmani and Rangeley, International Inland Waters: Conceptsfor a More Active World Bank Role No. 240 Ahmed, Renewable Energy Technologies: A Review of the Status and Costs of Selected Technologies No. 241 Webster, Newly Privatized Russian Enterprises No. 242 Barnes, Openshaw, Smith, and van der Plas, What Makes People Cook with Improved Biomass Stoves? A Comparative Initernational Review of Stove Programs No. 243 Menke and Fazzari, Improving Electric Power Utility Efficienicy: Issues and Recommendations No. 244 Liebenthal, Mathur, and Wade, Solar Energy: Lessons from the Pacific Island Experience No. 245 Klein, External Debt Management: AnI Initroduction No. 246 Plusquellec, Burt, and Wolter, Modern Water Control in Irrigationz: Concepts, Issues, and Applications No. 247 Ameur, Agricultural Extension: A Step beyond the Next Step No. 248 Malhotra, Koenig, and Sinsukprasert, A Survey of Asia's Energy Prices (List continues on the inside back cover) WORLD BANK TECHNICAL PAPER NUMBER 287 Cotton Production Prospects for the Next Decade Fred E. M. Gillham, Thomas M. Bell, Tijen Arin, Graham A. Matthews, Claude Le Rumeur, and A. Brian Heam The World Bank Washington, D.C. Copyright C 1995 The International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/THE WORLD BANK 1818 H Street, N.W. Washington, D.C. 20433, U.S.A. All rights reserved Manufactured in the United States of America First printing December 1995 Technical Papers are published to communicate the results of the Bank's work to the development com- munity with the least possible delay. The typescript of this paper therefore has not been prepared in accor- dance with the procedures appropriate to formal printed texts, and the World Bank accepts no responsibili- ty for errors. Some sources cited in this paper may be informal documents that are not readily available. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this paper are entirely those of the author(s) and should not be attributed in any manner to the World Bank, to its affiliated organizations, or to members of its Board of Executive Directors or the countries they represent. The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this publication and accepts no responsibility whatso- ever for any consequence of their use. 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The complete backlist of publications from the World Bank is shown in the annual Index of Publications, which contains an alphabe'.lcal citle list (with juil ordering informialcyn) and indexes of sub- jects, authors, and countries and regions. The latest edition is available free of charge from the Distribution Unit, Office of the Publisher, The World Bank, 1818 H Street, N.W., Washington, D.C. 20433, U.S.A., or from Publications, The World Bank, 66, avenue d'Iena, 75116 Paris, France. ISSN: 0253-7494 Fred Gillham, Thomas M. Bell, Tijen Arin, Claude Le Rumeur, and A. Brian Heam are consultants in the Agriculture and Natural Resources Department of the World Bank. Graham A. Matthews is a professor at the Imperial College, London. Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Cotton production prospects for the next decade / Fred E.M. Gillham . .. [et al.l. p. cm. - (World Bank technical paper; no. 287) Includes bibliographical references. ISBN 0-8213-3312-7 1. Cotton growing. 2. Cotton trade. I. Gillham, Fred E M. II. Series. HD9070.5.C75 1995 338.1'7351-dc2O 95-9245 CIP TABLE OF CONTENTS FOREW ORD ..................................... xi ABSTRACT .................................... xiii ACKNOWLEDGMENTS .................................... xv LIST OF ACRONYMS AND ABBREVIATIONS .................................... xvii MEASURES AND BALE SIZES .................................... xxi INTRODUCTION .................................. 1. COTTON: ITS ORIGINS AND AREAS OF PRODUCTION .5 Historical Background .5 Geographic Distribution (Areas of Production) .13 Smallholder Cotton Production .15 Organization and Role in the Economy .17 Performance of the Cotton Subsector .18 Annex 1.1: Cotton Production and Area in the Study Countries .29 2. TECHNICAL ISSUES .37 The Cotton Fiber .37 Changing Demand in the Textile Industry .37 Meeting Spinning Mill Requirements .39 Quality Improvements and Variety Development .44 Integrated Crop Management .46 Variety Improvement in the Study Countries .48 Variety Maintenance and Seed Production .55 Fiber and Spinning Test Facilities .62 Agronomy .66 Irrigation and Drainage .72 Crop Protection .82 Harvesting .100 Storage of Seed Cotton .101 Ginning .102 3. WORLD COTTON POLICY .107 Introduction .107 Aggregate Level Policies and the Cotton Sector .107 Input Policies and the Cotton Sector .110 Cotton Price Intervention .116 Regulatory Policy .137 Risk Management and Price Signals .137 Summary .138 4. MICRO ECONOMICS .143 Introduction .143 Factors Affecting Seed Cotton Production .143 Marketing .170 International Comparative Advantage in Cotton Production .182 Annex 4.1: Charts Illustrating the Marketing Chain by Country .183 iii Al SLZ'-------------------..--..--........ -------------'--'----'..-----..-- dOHSNHOM VIfIIV SI 3H1 NJ SINVdIDIJAVd I Z............................................................................................ol l ......................... ......... I........---- saipnIS XjjunoD tu i uollu u w ooo t sansslUWU Xo)P l zz .................................-------------------------- SNOIIVG NgW ODUS dOHSXNOM UNV SDNlGMIA AUfUSkAMlNf(40D AO SlSgHINAS -9 t1Z I ----- --- ....... .......... ..... .. - --- ---- olan.tlsegU °l°de L61 ............................................................................................................- SSSlAAMH HOOddllS E61 ........................................................ axe4S Ssauuve, aqljffo uoIeinoleD aEUL :Z b xouuV TABLE OF TABLES Table 1.1: Five Year Average Production of Cotton Lint in Metric Tonnes by Country from 1946 to 1995 ........... 24 Table 1.2: Five Year Average Areas in Hectares Planted to Cotton by Country from 1946 to 1995 ........... 24 Table 1.3: Five Year Average Yield of Lint in Kg/Ha by Country from 1946 to 1995 .25 Table 1.4: Five Year Average Production of Cotton as a Percentage of the World Total . 25 Table 1.5: Five Year Average Area Planted to Cotton as a Percentage of the World Total . 26 Table 1.6: Production, Hectareage and Yield for Mali and Tanzania - Five Year Averages from 1946 to 1995 (Lint Data) .27 Table 2.1: Summary of 1993 Cotton Production (thousands) .40 Table 2.2: Yam Strength of Major US Varieties with Different Spinning Systems and Yarn Counts .42 Table 2.3: Fiber Properties of Major US Commercial Cotton Varieties .42 Table 2.4: Distribution of Egyptian Varieties .50 Table 2.5: Fiber Quality Parameters of Four Genotypes and Paymaster HS 26 as Control . 63 Table 2.6: Yarn Quality of Four Genotypes and Paymaster HS 26 as Control .63 Table 2.7: Comparison of Fiber Strength Measurements with Yarn Strength of Varieties, 1993 64 Table 2.8: Correlations of Fiber Strength Measurements with Yarn Strength, 1993 .64 Table 2.9: Irrigation Extent and Dependence of Six Countries .73 Table 2.10: Crop Water Requirements Based on Evaporative Demand, Water Applied and Yield .75 Table 2.11: Losses Due to Diseases in the 1992 USA Crop of 3,531 '000 mt .85 Table 2.12: Estimated US Crop Losses Caused by Nematodes .86 Table 2.13: Variation in Insecticide Application Between Countries .92 Table 2.14: Safe Storage of Seed Cotton .102 Table 2.15: Approximate Costs of Ginning Equipment .103 Table 3.1: Official and Free Market Exchange Rates in Egypt, 1989-1990 .108 Table 3.2: The Cost of the Cotton Pest Control Program in Egypt, 1991 to 1993 .109 Table 3.3: Percent Changes in Relative Farmgate Cotton Prices in Egypt .110 Table 3.4: Fertilizer Subsidies in Selected Countries.11 I Table 3.5: Tanzania Fertilizer Subsidies (Percent) .112 Table 3.6: Producer Incentives in China .112 Table 3.7: Volume of Credit Dispersed by Source of Funds in Mexico (Mil US$) .114 Table 3.8: Transfers to the Rural Financial System in Mexico (Million US$) .114 Table 3.9: Hectares of Cotton Financed by BANRURAL, 1988-93 (1,000 Ha) .114 Table 3.10: Credit Limits as Percent of Productivity Level of Cotton in Brazil .115 Table 3.11: Value of AGF and EGF in Brazil: Seed Cotton and Lint, 1984-1991 (US$). 116 Table 3.12: Brazil: AGF Purchases & EGF Entries as Percentage of Cotton Production . 116 Table 3.13: Cotton Lint, Quantity and Revenue. Nominal US$: 1989-1990 .119 Table 3.14: Quantity and Price of Uzbek Cotton Sales .121 Table 3.15: China: Purchase Prices for Quota and Above Quota Cotton Production (Yuan-lOOkg) .125 Table 3.16: Average Purchase Price of Standard and Mixed Grade Seed Cotton in China (Yuan- 00kg) .126 v Table 3.17: Differences between Supply and Purchase Price in China for Grade 327 (Yuan-mt) ............................................................ 126 Table 3.18: Cotton Subsidy (million Yuan) ............................................................ 127 Table 3.19: World and Pakistan Cotton Yarn, Fabric and Garment Trade ............................... 130 Table 3.20: Pakistan: Export Duty as Percent of MEP-BM 1991-92 ............................................ 131 Table 3.21: Nominal Protection Coefficients; Indian Cotton Varieties .................................... 135 Table 4.1: Comparison of Volatility in Commodity Prices ........................................................ 149 Table 4.2: Cotton Price Volatility ............................................................ 150 Table 4.3: Pakistan - Grade Pricing (92/93) for Seed Cotton ..................................................... 154 Table 4.4: Pakistan - Output/Input Ratio and Gross Revenue (1992/93 Market Prices and Yields, Punjab) ............................................................ 160 Table 4.5: Cotton Crop Budgets for Six Study Countries (in Percentage) ................................. 164 Table 4.6: Components of Farm-Retail Spread for Cotton Denim Dungarees in the US, 1976 172 Table 4.7: Brazil - Cost Break-Down of Marketing Operations ................................................. 172 Table 4.8: Tanzania - Breakdown of Marketing Costs and Revenues (Tshs/kg) ....................... 173 Table 4.9: Mexico - Breakdown of Marketing Costs and Revenues (1994) (US cents/lb) in terms of Lint Cotton ............................................................ 175 Table 4.10: Mali - Marketing Costs (CFA/ ton) ............................................................ 176 Table 4.11: Itemized Cost Breakdown for Ginning Operations ................................................. 180 Table 4.12: Tanzania, Pakistan and India - DRC Ratios ............................................................ 182 Table 4.13: Egypt - DRC Ratios for 1991 ............................................................ 182 Table A4.2.1 Method of Calculating the Farmgate Price Back from the Export Price (Export Parity Price) ............................................................ 195 vi TABLE OF BOXES Box 2.1: The Zimbabwe Cotton Industry .......................................... 39 Box 2.2: Fiber Quality and Spinning Potential .......................................... 40 Box 2.3: Consequences of Selection for Individual Criteria ..................... ..................... 44 Box 2.4: Requirements for Producing Quality Planting Seed .......................................... 56 Box 2.5: The Major Weeds in the Nine Study Countries .......................................... 82 Box 4.1: Marketing Margins in US Denim Industry .......................................... 172 Box 5.1: Examples of Pesticides Regulation .......................................... 218 vii TABLE OF EXHIBITS Exhibit 2.1: Relative Values & Use of the Four New World Cotton Types (Prices Based on 1988 US Estimates) .................................................................. 43 Exhibit 2.2: Differences in the Rate of Development of Chinese Cotton Varieties ...................... 48 Exhibit 2.3: Cropping Patterns of the Yellow River Valley in China ........................................... 67 Exhibit 2.4: Pakistan Punjab Agroecological System 1977-78 ..................................................... 90 Exhibit 2.5: Pakistan Punjab Agroecological System 1990-91 ..................................................... 90 Exhibit 2.6: Pakistan Punjab Agroecological System 1993-94 .....................................................91 Exhibit 2.7. The Flow from Identification of the Problem, through the Development of New Technology to the Transfer of this Technology to the Farmers ...................................... 98 Exhibit 2.8. Components of [PM and Interactions in their Implementation ................................. 98 Exhibit 2.9: Linkages in Cotton Production .................................................................. 99 Exhibit.2.10: Linkages between Farming and the Environment ................................................... 99 Exhibit 2.11: Equipment Requirements for Cleaning and Ginning Cotton Picked with Different Systems .................................................................. 103 Exhibit 3.1: Cotton Textile Marketing Flows .................................................................. 141 Exhibit 3.2: Flows of Price Signals Through Textile Industry ................................................... 142 Exhibit 4.1: Tanzania - Production Schedule for Cotton, Maize and Rice in WCGA ............... 166 Exhibit 4.2: Pakistan - Competition between Crops for Labor and Management Time ............ 167 Exhibit 4.3: Egypt -Annual Labor Requirement for Cotton and Other Crops ........................... 167 Exhibit 4.4: By-Product Utilization .................................................................. 169 Exhibit A4. 1.1: Brazil Marketing Chain .................................................................. 185 Exhibit A4.1.2: China Marketing Chain .................................................................. 185 Exhibit A4.1.3: Egypt Marketing Chain .................................................................. 186 Exhibit A4.1.4: India Marketing Chain .................................................................. 187 Exhibit A4.1.5: Mali Marketing Chain .................................................................. 188 Exhibit A4.1.6: Mexico Marketing Chain .................................................................. 188 Exhibit A4.1.7: Pakistan Marketing Chain .................................................................. 189 Exhibit A4.1.8: Tanzania Marketing Chain .................................................................. 190 Exhibit A4.1.9: Uzbekistan Marketing Chain .................................................................. 191 Exhibit 5.1: Pyrethroid Resistance Management in Australia .................................................... 219 Exhibit 5.2: Namoi/Gwyder - Fenvalerate (Percent Surviving Discriminating Dose) ........... 219 Exhibit 7.1: Problems in Cotton Production .................................................................. 260 viii TABLE OF FIGURES Figure 1: World Cotton Production and Hectarage: Five Year Averages 1946 to 1995 ................. 4 Figure 2: World Cotton Yield: Five Year Averages 1946 to 1995 ................................................. 4 Figure A. l: Brazil - Total Cotton Production ('OOOMT) ............................................................... 31 Figure A.2: China - Total vs. Xinjiang Production ('OOOMT) ..................................................... 31 Figure A.3: China - Production in the Yellow River Region ('000 Ha) ...................................... 31 Figure A.4: Egypt - Total Cotton Production ('OOOMT) .............................................................. 31 Figure A.5: China - Production in Central Provinces ('000 Ha) ................................................. 3'1 Figure A.6: India - Total Cotton Production ('OOOMT) ............................................................... 31 Figure A.7: Mali - Total Cotton Production ('OOOMT) ................................................................ 32 Figure A.8: Mexico - Total Cotton Production ('OOOMT) ........................................................... 32 Figure A.9: Pakistan - Total Cotton Production ('OOOMT) .......................................................... 32 Figure A.l0: Tanzania - Total Cotton Production ('OOOMT) ....................................................... 32 Figure A. l 1: Uzbekistan - Total Cotton Production ('OOOMT) .................................................... 32 Figure A.12: Brazi l - Tot al Cotton Area ('OOOHa) ................................................................ 33 Figure A.13: China - Total Cotton Area ('000 Ha) ................................................................ 33 Figure A.14: China - Cotton Area in the Yantze River Region ('000 Ha) ................................... 33 Figure A.15: Egypt - Total Cotton Area ('OOOHa) ................................................................ 33 Figure A. 16: China - Planted vs. Harvested Area in Hebei and Shandong in 1993/93 ............... 33 Figure A.17: China - Cotton Area in Xinjiang ('000 Ha) ('000 Ha) ............................................ 33 Figure A. 18: India - Total Cotton Area ('000 Ha) ................................................................ 34 Figure A. 19: Mali - Total Cotton Area ('000 Ha) ................................................................ 34 Figure A.20: Mexico - Total Cotton Area ('000 Ha) ................................................................ 34 Figure A.2 1: Pakistan - Total Cotton Area ('000 Ha) ................................................................ 34 Figure A.22: Tanzania - Total Cotton Area '000 Ha) ................................................................ 34 Figure A.23: Uzbekistan -Total Cotton Area ('000 Ha) ............................................................... 34 Figure A.24: World Cotton Production and Hectarage by Country as Percent of the Total Five Year Averages from 1946 to 1995 ................................................................ 34 Figure 4.1: Brazil - Real Producer Prices ('000 CR/T) .............................................................. 145 Figure 4.2: Brazil - Average Prodiw'er Prices ($US/I 5Kg) ........................................................ 145 Figure 4.3: Brazil - 15 Year Average Producer Prices for Cotton and Competing Crops (US$/'OOOKg) ................................................................ 145 Figure 4.4: Egypt - Nominal Price Trends for Two Major Varieties (LE/Kentar) ..................... 145 Figure 4.5: Egypt - Index of Real* Producer Prices for Cotton and Competing Crops (LE) .... 145 Figure 4.6: India - Nominal Producer Prices for Three Varieties (Rs./Qtl) ............................... 145 Figure 4.7: India - Real Producer Prices (US$/QTL) ................................................................ 146 Figure 4.8: Mali - Nominal and (Index of) Real Producer Prices for Cotton (CFAF/Kg) (1972 = 100) ................................................................ 146 Figure 4.9: Mali - Producer Prices for Cotton and Competing Crops (CFAF/Kg) .................... 146 Figure 4.10: Pakistan - Producer Prices for B-557 (Rs/4OKg) ................................................... 146 Figure 4.11: Tanzania - Index of Real Seed Cotton Producer Prices (TSh/Kg) (1986/87=100) ................................................................ 146 Figure 4.12: Brazil - Lint and Seed Cotton Yields ................................................................ 158 Figure 4.13: China, Yellow River Region - Lint Yields ................................................................ 158 Figure 4.14: China - Lint Yields in Xinjiang ................................................................ 158 Figure 4.15: China, Yangtse River Region - Lint Yields ................................................................ 158 ix Figure 4.16: Egypt - Lint Yields ................................................................... 158 Figure 4.17: India - Lint Yields ................................................................... 158 Figure 4.18: Mali - Lint and Seed Cotton Yields .............................................. 159 Figure 4.19: Mexico - Lint Yields ................................................................... 159 Figure 4.20: Pakistan - Lint Yields ................................................................... 159 Figure 4.21: Tanzania - Lint Yields ................................................................... 159 Figure 4.22: Uzbekistan - Lint Yields ................................................................... 159 Figure 4.23: Egypt - Net Revenue to Cotton and Competing Crops (LE/feddan) . .................. 160 Figure 4.24: Egypt - Net Revenue from Competing Rotations (LE/feddan) . ...................... 160 Figure 4.25: Brazil - Average Gross Income from Cotton in Brazil over 15 Years (US$/Ha) .. 162 Figure 4.26: China - Gross Financial Returns to Different Crop Rotations in Shandong (1993 Prices) .................................. .................................................. 162 Figure 4.27: China - Gross Financial Returns to Cotton across Provinces and Xinjiang (Y/Ha) (1993 Prices) .................................. 162 Figure 4.28: China - Returns to Cotton and Competing Crops in Hanchuan County, Hubei (Y/mu) (1993 Prices) ...................................... 162 Figure 4.29: China - Net Revenue (Y/mu) (1986-1990) ...................................... 162 Figure 4.30: China - Return to Labor on Cotton Farms (Y/laborer/day) . ......................... 162 Figure 4.31: Egypt - Return on Water (Value Added in LE/m3 of Water) (1991 Prices) .......... 163 Figure 4.32: India - Profit from Cotton Cultivation (Rs/QTL) ................................. 163 Figure 4.33: Tanzania - Financial Net Output Value in 1992/93 (TSh/Kg) . ...................... 163 Figure 4.34: Tanzania - Return to Cotton under Different Cultivation Systems (TSh/Kg) (92/93) ................................................................ 163 Figure 4.35: Uzbekistan - Rate of Return to Cotton Production as Percentage of Expenditure 163 Figure 4.36: China - Cost of Production Structure (Y/100 kg) ................................. 165 Figure 4.37: Mali: Net Returns (CFAF/ha) ................................................................ 165 Figure 4.38: Brazil - Parank, Farmgate Seed Cotton vs. Domestic Lint Price (c/lb) . .................. 174 Figure 4.39: China - Lint Cotton Purchase vs. Sales Price (Yuan/T) . ........................... 174 Figure 4.40: Egypt - Giza 70 (ELS) Lint Equiv. Farmgate vs. Domestic Lint Prices . ............... 174 Figure 4.41: Egypt - Giza 75 Qibli (LS) Lint Equiv. Farmgate vs. Domestic Lint Prices ......... 174 Figure 4.42: Egypt - Farmgate / Export Parity Price ................................................................ 174 Figure 4.43 : Mali - Farmgate vs. Export Prices ................................................................. 174 Figure 4.44: Pakistan - Lint Equivalent Farmgate Price vs. Domestic Lint Price . .................. 175 Figure 4.45: Tanzania - Lint Equiv. Farmgate vs. F.O.B. Price ................................ 175 x FOREWORD Over the past decades, the performance of cotton industries has varied widely between countries. In some countries, industries have experienced decline or stagnation, whereas in others they have expanded rapidly. Globally, cotton is facing challenges that affect not only its compettiveness with man-made fibers in the textile industry, but also the sustainability of production. This is the case even in countries with dynamic cotton industries. Serious concerns relate to the environmental implications of pesticide use in cotton production, requiring more widespread adoption of Integrated Pest Management (IPM) strategies, with strong support from research and extension programs. The most serious challenges for cotton industries, however, are likely to result from the liberalization of markets and the removal of subsidies. There is also a need for strengthening the linkages between the growers, the ginners and the textile industry. With consumption increasing steadily and expansion into new areas constrained by the availability of land and water, increases in production will need to come from increased yields. The introduction of new technologies, including new varieties, will be crucial for this to be achieved. This study, 'Cotton Production Prospects for the Next Decade,' was undertaken through a collaborative initiative by the World Bank, the International Cotton Advisory Comnittee, the Common Fund for Commodities and the Canada-Egypt-McGill Agricultural Response Program. Its aim was to foster economic progress in developing countries that depend on cotton. The report incorporates the findings of nine independent country study teams, along with the discussions and conclusions of an international workshop held in Ismailia, Egypt from November 14 to 17, 1994. It is, therefore, the transmission of views of the study teams and of the participants to the workshop which we are facilitating through this report. It is hoped that the report will be of value to government agencies, industry, multilateral and bilateral organizations in helping them assess the merits of cotton related development projects, and in designing cotton programs and related policies. Alex F. McCalla Director Agriculture and Natural Resources Department xi ABSTRACT This report is based on studies conducted in Brazil, China, Egypt, India, Mali, Mexico, Pakistan, Tanzania and Uzbekistan. The studies systematically addressed the global problems facing cotton production and the significance of government policies in promoting efficiency and effectiveness in the cotton sub-sector. China, India, Pakistan and Uzbekistan were selected as four of the world's top five cotton producing countries. Egypt produces fully irrigated, speciality cotton which has the best quality of its type in the world. Until recently, Brazil was the sixth highest cotton producer in the world and also the sixth biggest consumer. Mexico has been an important producer but production has declined, largely because of government policies on alternative crops. However, its proximity to the USA placed it in a unique position for the study. Finally Mali and Tanzania represent two countries which have environmental similarities but differ in the organization of their cotton sub-sectors. Local, in-country consultants were appointed to examine a number of issues, including seed development, cultural practices, labor resources, the role of institutions and government policies and the marketing system. Each case study was reviewed nationally at a meeting of all institutions involved in cotton. The study was sponsored by the International Cotton Advisory Committee as the International Commodity Body for cotton and co-financed by the Common Fund for Commodities, the World Bank and the Canada-Egypt-McGill Agricultural Response Program with the World Bank as the project executing agency. Case studies were launched in the Spring of 1993. Initially, the study was intended primarily to identify and find appropriate solutions to technical problems to raise yields and increase incomes. However, in the course of the study, it was recognized that there were significant interrelationships between the technology to raise yields and government policies so the work was expanded to address the linkages between the technical, institutional and policy aspects of cotton production and marketing. When the project was initiated, countries around the world were beginning to question the role of governments in economic activities. In 1990, the governments of most cotton producing countries were heavily involved in production and marketing cotton because of its economic and social importance. This included China, the USSR and the USA which accounted for some 60% of world cotton production. The reasons for these policies differ in different countries, depending on their objectives. Thus some countries produce cotton for export while others have strong textile sectors and export mainly value added products in the form of cotton yarn, fabrics or piece goods. The study demonstrated that because of these factors, production aspects cannot be studied in isolation from other aspects of the cotton industry and related government policies. During the last four years, many countries, including many of the study countries, have reduced or plan to reduce the role of government in economic decision-making in cotton. These movements toward greater private sector control of the cotton industry have been encouraged by international economic and financial organizations. xiii - The most common technical weaknesses revealed in the studies were in seed production and the development of varieties with the fiber attributes required by modem, high speed rotor and ring spinning mills, combined with high yield potential and ginning outturn and resistance to adversities which differ in different countries. In countries where cotton is irrigated, there are problems with irrigation scheduling to satisfy changing plant needs as the season progresses while minimizing the risk of waterlogging and salinity. This is usually associated with supply driven systems and also involves drainage. The implementation of Integrated Pest Management strategies has been complicated by liberalization of pesticide marketing and the removal of constraints on the movement of seed cotton both within and between countries. In several countries, unregulated use of pesticides has contributed directly to serious problems with pesticide resistance in major cotton pests while uncontrolled movement of seed cotton could contribute to the spread of diseases such as bacterial blight, Xanthomonas malvacearum, and of insect pests such as the pink bollworm, Pectinophora gossypiella. Competition for labor often results in delays in land preparation and planting, weeding and thinning. In some countries, this reveals a need to develop adapted equipment for use by smallholders to facilitate more timely field operations. When cotton prices are low, the cost of labor in some countries results in a considerable amount of cotton from the later bolls being left unpicked. Rising costs of inputs, in some cases coupled with import duties on agro-chemicals, without a commensurate increase in price has reduced the returns on cotton. Currently, this effect is being offset by high prices resulting from a shortfall in the Chinese crop due largely to pyrethroid resistance in the bollworm, Helicoverpa armigera, population and in the Pakistan crop due to the incidence of leaf curl virus disease. Close attention has been paid to the relationship between both seed cotton and lint equivalent farmgate prices and the international value of the cotton produced. The use of local, multi-disciplinary teams of consultants, some of whom are directly involved with policy making and cotton research, has been an important feature of the study. The first outcome is that the conclusions, key issues and recommendations presented are those visualized by local experts. The second is that it enabled experts in different fields of cotton production to work together and to appreciate the interactions between their respective fields, giving them a complete overview of their cotton sub-sectors. This report represents the culmination of this study, incorporating the findings of the country study teams, and the essentials of the discussion and final conclusions of an international workshop at which all study teams were represented. This has been a comprehensive but not exhaustive study, not least, because so many countries are in a transition stage in liberalizing their cotton sub-sectors. Furthermore, the study did not go sufficiently deeply into the interactions between cotton production and the textile industry and only touched on risk management. In many cases the key issues and recommendations presented call for further, detailed study to determine their merits and feasibility. However, it is expected that the study will be of particular value to donor organizations in assessing the merits of cotton related development projects and to national governments in developing their cotton programs and policies. xiv ACKNOWLEDGMENTS This study represents the results of a two and a half year collaborative effort between the International Cotton Advisory Committee (ICAC), the Common Fund for Commodities (CFC), the Canada-Egypt-McGill Agricultural Response Program (CEMARP), the study teams in the nine selected cotton producing countries, the World Bank and its Special Program for African Agricultural Research (SPAAR). The Agriculture, Natjral Resources and Rural Development Department specifically commends the consultant authors for their excellent work, in particular, Fred Gillham who has been a driving force behind this study since its inception. The authors wish to thank Hamdy Eisa and Shawki Barghouti for instigating the study and all those who provided substantial advice, guidance and contributions to the study: Lawrence Shaw, Terry Townsend and Rafiq Chaudhry (ICAC), Budi Hartantyo and Sam Oluwude (CFC), Mohamad Faris (CEMARP), Moctar Toure (SPAAR), Michel Petit, Gershon Feder, Douglas Forno, Steve Jaffee, Johannes ter Vrugt and Mirtha Araujo. Also Carmen del Castillo, David Ferreira and the legal councils of the countries in the study, for assisting in setting up the study team contracts. The study teams in the nine countries gave sterling service in preparing the country reports and were extremely helpful in providing any additional informat.on that was needed. Without their efforts, the study would not have been completed: Brazil: Marcos Ant6nio Stamm, Joao Ferreira Neto, Robson de Macedo Vieri, Ney Dias dos Santos, Ms. Marcia Godoy dos Santos, Ms. Maria Elizabeth do Livramento China: Wang Ruohai, Guo Jingcheng, Xiang Shikang, Zhang Xiangwei, Zeng Xiangguang, Xia Jingyuan, Wang Zhihua, Wang Shumin, Xie Fangling, Li Junyi and Zhang Lizhen Egypt: Bekir Oteifa, Ahmed Momtaz, Mohsen Adam, Anwar Abdael Bary, Abubakr Ghoniem, Ahmed El-Ghary, Mohsen El-Guindi, Ahmed El-Sahriegy, Abdel Salam Gomaa, Nabil El-Mowelhi, Yassin Osman, Mohamad El-Moghazy, Saad Nassar, Rashad El-Saadany, Osama Momtaz. India: Ashok Khanna, Shankar Venkataswaran, Ms. Rima Gupta, K.V. Sriram, Yogesh Kumar Aggarwal, R.S. Singh, V.M. Sahni and N.S. Aggarwal Mali: Moustapha Deme, Zana Vincent Dembele, N'Ffagnanama Kone. Mexico: Jesus Mufioz Vasquez, Fransisco Escobar Vega, Daniel Munioz Rios, Luis Equihua Hemandez, Raul Martinez, Raymundo Zaleta, Jose Rodriguez Vallejo, Fransisco J. Andrade Pakistan: Zahoor Ahmad, Mahbub Ali, Ibad Badar Siddique, Ch. Abdul Ghaffar, M.D. Mohsin. The report was reviewed by Zafar Altaf, Ch. Shafi Niaz. Makhdumzada Shah Mehmood Hussein Qureshi attended the workshop with Messrs Zahoor Ahmad and Zafar Altaf. Tanzania: E.M. Kakuru, L. C. Gedi, H. Y. Kayumbo, B. W. Shipella, E.B. Rwandallah, A.M. Kitenge, G.A. Lema, B.M. Gama, Ms. B.J. Gogadi and 1. Black. xv Uzbekistan: V. V. Kim, A. Kadirov, R. M. Usmanov, T. Mamatvaliev, I. Trushin, and L. Pack. The report was reviewed by H. Mukhitdinov, Thomas Daves, D. Akhmedov and B. Abdullaev. Special thanks are due to the Ismailia Workshop Organizing Committee Chairman Youssef Wally, Minister of Agriculture, Egypt, who officially opened the workshop, to the other members of the committee and to all the participants in the workshop, in particular the consultants Dourbeck Akhmedov, Harry Ayer, John Macrae, Terry Townsend and Jingyuan Xia, the workshop moderator Dr. Ghazi Hariri of the International Service for Agricultural Research (ISNAR), all those who assisted as facilitators and/or rapporteurs and the guest speakers, Rafiq Chaudhry of the ICAC and Sebastian Otto of the International Textile Manufacturers Federation. The authors wish to extend their special appreciation for the valuable assistance provided through the course of the study by the liaison personnel in the World Bank country divisions and the staffs of the Resident Missions in the nine countries, in particular Braz Menezes (Brazil), Ms. Zhengxuan Zhu (China), M. Balasubramanian (India), Agadiou Dama (Mali), Joost Draaisma (Mexico), Rashed Ul-Qayyum (Pakistan), Donald Sungusia (Tanzania), Thomas Daves, Bahtier Abdullaev (Uzbekistan) and the CEMARP office in Egypt. The sponsors of this study were: The World Bank Department of Agriculture and Natural Resources Division of Agriculture and Forestry 1818 H Street N.W. Washington DC 20433 Douglas Forno: Chief International Cotton Advisory Committee 1629 K Street N.W. Washington DC 20006 Lawrence Shaw: Executive Director The Common Fund for Commodities Willhelmshuis Stadshoudskade 55 1072 AB Amsterdam Budi Hartantyo: Managing Director Canada-Egypt-McGill Agricultural response Program MacDonald Campus of McGill University 21,111 Lakeshore Road Ste-Anne-de Bellbue (Quebec) Canada H9X 3V9 Mohamad A. Faris: Director xvi .. . . . . . . 0'+S w~~~~OP J5gg\X ~ ~ ~ ....... I ~ I ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~AF I r-o LIST OF ACRONYMS AND ABBREVIATIONS Genieral BCGA 13ritishi Cotton Growing Association CEMARP Canada-F gypt-McG ill University Agricultural Response Program CFDT Comilpaginie Fran,aise pour la Developpeiment des Textiles CGIAR Consultative Group for International Agricultural Research CIRAD CA Cenitre de Cooperation Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le DOveloppement: DIpartement des Cultures Annuelles CIS Commonwealth of Independent States COMECON Counicil for Mutual Economic Aid COTLOOK A INDEX'm Average price quotations for mediumii count cottons prepared by Cotton Outlook, Liverpool cm centimeter CPI ConIsulimer Price Index CRC Cotton Research Growing Corporation D)RC Doinestic Resource Cost ECCC Emnpire Cotton Growing Corporation ELS Fxtra-long staple FAC F-rancophone African FAO Food and Agriculture Organizationi FAS Foreign Agriculture Service. IJ.S. D)epartment of Agriculture FMT Shirley Development Finencss/Maturity 'I'ester FSU Former Soviet Union (,ATT General Agreement on Trade and T'aritf GDP Gross Domestic Product G-OT Ginning Outturn ha hectare HVI Hiigh Volume Instrumentation ICAC International Cotton Advisory Committee 1CM Integrated Crop Management IPM Integrated Pest Management IRCT Institut de Recherches du Cotton et des Textiles Exotiques IRRI International Rice Research Institute ITMF International Textile Manufacturers Federation kg kilogram LCV Leaf L'Curl Virus LS LIong Staple MADIA Managing Agricultural Development in Africa mt metric ton NAFTA North American Free Trade Agreement NGOs Non-Governmental Organizations NYCE New York Cotton Exchange OECD Organization for Econiomic Cooperation and Development ODA United Kingdom Overseas Development Administration OTA United States Office of Techinology Assessment SAP Structural Adjustment Program SMS Subject Matter Specialist xix T&V Training and Visit USAID United States Agency for International Development USDA United States Department of Agriculture Brazil AGF Aquisi,ao do Governo Federal / Federal Government Purchase BMCG Campina Grande Commodities Stock. in Paraiba BMF Commodities Stock & Futures CMN Conselho Mofietario Nacional / Monetary National Council CNPA Centro Nacional de Pesquisa do Algodao / National Center for Cotton Research CONAB (former CFP) Companhia Nacional de Abastecimento / National Supply Company EGF Emprestimos do Governo Federal / Federal Government Loans EGF/COV Emprestimos do Governo Federal com Op,co de Venda / Federal Government Loans with Purchase Option EGF/SOV Emprestimos do Governo Federal sem Op,Ao de Venda / Federal Government Loans without Purchase Option EMBRAPA Empresa Brasileira de Pesquisa Agro-pecuaria / Brazilian Company for Agricultural and Cattle Raising Research EMBRATER Empresa Brasileira de Extensao Rural / Brazilian Company for Rural Extension IAC Instituto Agron6mico de Campinas / Agronomical Institute of Campinas, in Sao Paulo MERCOSUR Southern Common Market of Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay and Uruguay. PGPM Politica de Garantia de Precos Minimos / Minimum Price Policy (MPP) China CAAS Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences CJC Cotton and Jute Company CRI Cotton Research Institute NCCR Northern Cotton Growing Region PPI Plant Protection Institute SCCR Southern Cotton Growing Region SMC Supply and Marketing Cooperatives Egypt AERDI Agricultural Extension and Rural Development Institute ARC Agricultural Research Centre CAAES Central Administration for Agricultural Extension Services CAPM Central Administration for Pest Management CATGO Cotton Arbitration and Testing General Organisation CEA Cotton Extension Agents CTSC Cotton Technical Support Committee GAAES General Administrations of Applied Extension Services MAFLR Ministry of Agriculture, Fisheries and Animal Resources and Land Reclamation MEFT Ministry of Economy and Foreign Trade NARP National Agricultural Research Program O&M Operation and Maintenance PBDAC Principal Bank for the Development of Agricultural Credit PPRI Plant Protection Research Institute TIC Textile Industries Corporation xx India AEO Agricultural Extension Officer AICCIP All India Coordinated Cotton Improvement Project CCI Cotton Corporation of India CICR Central Institute of Cotton Research CIRCOT Centre for Research on Cotton Technology ICAR Indian Council of Agricultural Research NAFED National Agricultural Cooperative Marketing Federation of India VLEW Village Level Extension Workers Mali AV Association Villageoise / Village Association BNDA Banque Nationale de Developpement Agricole / National Bank for Agricultural Development CFA Communaute Financiere Africaine CFDT Compagnie Francaise pour le Developpement des Textiles / The French Company for Textile Development CMDT Compagnie Malienne pour le Developpement des Textiles / The Malian Company for Textile Development COPACO Compagnie Parisienne de Coton CRRA Regional Agronomic Research Centres DIT Direction Technique d'Industrie / Technical and Industrial Management Service ESITEX Ecole Superieure des Industries Texties / Textile Industry Higher Education School IER Institut d'Economie Rural / Rural Economy Institute IPR Institut Polytechnique Rural / Rural Polytechnical Institute HUICOMA Huilerie Cotoniere du Mali / Mali Cottonseed Oil Company OHVN Office de la Haute Vallee du Niger OSRP Office de Stabilisation et de Regularisation des Prix / Office for Price Stabilisation and Regulation SOSEA Societe de Services pour l'Europe et l'Afrique SYCOV Syndicat des Producteurs Cotoniers et Vivriers / Cotton Producers' Trade Union WAMU West African Monetary Union ZAER Zone d'Alphabetisation et d'Extension Rurale / Zone of Rural Expansion and Literacy Mexico ASERCA Apoyos y Servicios a la Comercializaci6n Agropecuaria / Support and Services for the Commercialization of Agriculture BANRURAL National Rural Credit Bank INIFAP National Institute of Forestry, Agriculture and Animal Husbandry FERTIMEX Fertilizer Company of Mexico FIRA Agricultural Trust Fund PROCAMPO Program of Direct Rural Support SAHR Ministry of Agriculture and Water Resources Pakistan ADBP Agricultural Development Bank of Pakistan arthi Marketing Commissioner xxi CCRI Central Cotton Research Institute CEC Cotton Export Corporation CLCV Cotton Leaf Curl Virus DDA Deputy Director of Agriculture EADA Extra Assistant Director of Agriculture FSCD Federal Seed Certification Department KHARIF Wet season (mid-April to mid-October) MEP Minimum Export Price NIAB Nuclear Institute for Agriculture and Biology PCCC Pakistan Central Cotton Committee RABI Dry season (mid-October to mid-April) Tanzania AR Grade A Seed Cotton ACES Assistant Commissioner for Extension Services BR Grade B Seed Cotton CALD Commissioner for Agriculture and Livestock Development CRDB Co-operative and Rural Development Bank CRC Cotton Research Corporation ECGA Eastem Cotton Growing Area FEPU Farmers Education and Publicity Unit NASACO National Shipping Agencies Company Ltd. NALERP National Agriculture and Livestock Extension Rehabilitation Project TACOCA Tanzania Cotton Co-operatives Alliance TARO Tanzania Agricultural Research Organisation TFC Tanzania Fertiliser Company TCMB- Tanzania Cotton Marketing Board TCLSB Tanzania Cotton Lint and Seed Board TISCO Tanzania Industrial Studies and Organisation VEW Village Extension Worker WCGA Westem Cotton Growing Area Uzbekistan AAS Academy of Agricultural Sciences ASTC Agricultural Senior Technical Colleges SCSE State Committee for Science and Engineering SOYUZKHLOPOK Institute of Cotton SPTU Rural Junior Technical Colleges xxii MEASURES AND BALE SIZES General: I Kilogram = 2.205 Pounds I Metric Ton = 2,205 Pounds I Hectare = 2.471 Acres Brazil Arroba: = 15 Kilograms I Bale of Lint = 220 kg China I Bale of Lint = 80 kg Egypt I Feddan = 0.420 Hectares or 1.037 Acres I Kentar = 157.50 Kilograms (unginned seedcotton) I Metric Kentar= 50.00 Kilograms (lint or ginned cotton) I Ardeb = 120.00 Kilograms (cotton seed) I Bale of Lint = 6.53 Metric Kentars or 326.50 Kilograms (lint cotton) India I Lac = 100,000 I Crore = 10,000,000 I Bale of Lint = 170 kg Mali I Bale of Lint = 220 kg Mexico I Bale of Lint = 220 kg Pakistan 1 Bale of Lint = 170 kg I Bale of Yarn = 181 kg (400 Ibs) I Maund = 37.324 kg Tanzania I Bale of Lint = 181 kg (400 lbs.) Uzbekistan I Bale of Lint = 220 kg xxiii INTRODUCTION World Bank Technical Paper Number 231, "Cotton Production Prospects for the Decade to 2005, A Global Overview" (Eisa et al 1994), was prepared in 1991 to provide background in- formation for the nine country cotton study which is discussed in this document. It was updated in 1993 prior to publication in February 1994. Although it is a recent publication, rapid changes have occurred in policies on cotton production, particularly with regard to government interven- tions, input pricing, price support and cotton marketing. Cokton production has suffered setbacks in some countries, notably the impact of leaf curl virus disease in Pakistan and India and the de- velopment pyrethroid resistance in Helicoverpa populations in China, India and Pakistan. The nine country study of Cotton Production Prospects for the Next Decade was initiated because projections on consumption indicate a steady increase as a result of population growth, increased per capita consumption in some countries, an increasing share of the fiber market as a result of new spinning technology and increased public awareness of the advantages of cotton, particularly in the USA and Europe. However, some projections over the same period suggest that there could be a decline in the area planted to cotton because of the need to produce more food. The increase in production, therefore, may have to come from higher yields and not from area expansion. The intention of this study was to use case studies of key cotton producing countries to determine where and how the increase in yield will be achieved in a sustainable ag- ricultural system. Even if cotton/food crop price ratios rise, any significant expansion in cotton area seems unlikely. There has been none in the last forty years (Figures 1; Table 1.2). Cotton is grown in over seventy countries and is one of the most important cash crops in the world. The fiber is used universally as a textile raw material while cottonseed is a major source of vegetable oil and cottonseed cake which is a source of high quality protein for stock- feed or, with careful processing, for human food. Cotton plays a vital multi-sectoral role in the economies of many developing countries in Asia, Africa and Latin America, earning foreign ex- change and providing employment for millions of people in the agricultural and related process- ing and textile sub-sectors. Foreign exchange earnings may come from the direct export of raw cotton or from the export of value added cotton based textiles. Over the past fifty years, cotton lint production has increased from an annual average of 5.24 million mt between 1946 and 1950 to a projected 19.12 million mt between 1991 and 1995 (Figure 1). Initially, the increase resulted from area expansion from an average of 26.27 million ha between 1946 and 1950 to 35.44 million between 1951 and 1955 (Figure 1). New areas came into production as a result of the work of the British Empire Cotton Growing Corporation (ECGC) and the French Institut de Recherches du Coton et des Textiles Exotiques (IRCT), mainly in Africa, expansion of irrigation in Central Asia and the impact of new pesticides which made it possible to move into areas which had previously been considered unsuitable for cotton because of the incidence of insect pests. Since the mid 1960s, however, the area planted to cot- ton has remained fairly constant at between 32 and 34 million ha and most of the increase in production has come from yield enhancement, resulting from improved varieties, agronomic practices and crop protection, going from a five-year average lint yield of 200 kg/ha between 1946 and 1950 to a projected 582 kg/ha between 1991 and 1995 (Figure 2). l 2 Cotton Production for the Next Decade A great deal of the increase in world production occurred in the former Soviet Union (predominantly Uzbekistan) and the Peoples' Republic of China. These two countries, together with the USA, produce about two thirds of the world's cotton. Spectacular increases in produc- tion also occurred in Pakistan, Australia and Southern Africa. Over the past twenty years, sev- eral countries, notably in South East Asia, have introduced programs to encourage cotton pro- duction in order to reduce reliance on imports to supply the needs of their rapidly expanding textile industries. While these countries are never likely to become major cotton producers, if they achieve even partial self sufficiency, it will influence world trade in raw cotton. The governments of most cotton producing countries are heavily involved in cotton pro- duction and marketing because of its multi-sectoral role in the economy and its socio-economic and strategic importance. This was discussed in World Bank Technical Paper 231 (Ibid). In practically all cases this involves some form of price intervention or stabilization to bolster grower confidence, prevent wide fluctuations in production caused by price volatility, or to pro- vide supplies of fiber to domestic textile industries at prices below the international level. This may be a fixed price for a specific grade of seed cotton, declared in advance of the season with premiums and discounts for grades above and below the standard grade or it may be a minimum price which only comes into play if the international price for a standard grade falls below this level. The fixed price may be based on long term averages to stabilize the farmgate price or it may be related to the current lint equivalent price on the international market. Government in- tervention may also involve input subsidies and procurement which affect input price and supply and/or impurt/export taxes, quotas etc. which affect trade. The various types of policy are dis- cussed in Chapter 3. Government interventions influence domestic production, the domestic textile industry and the international cotton, yarn and textile markets. Arguments for their justification include economies of scale, quality control, logistical barriers and environmental concerns. Some of the arguments have economic/technical justification while others do not. However, while cottonseed is a valuable source of vegetable oil and protein, cotton is grown primarily to supply the raw material needs of the textile industry, an industry that relies on regularity of supply and quality. Thus studies of cotton production economics and policy should be complemented by an under- standing of their impact on the markets for cotton lint, yarn and textiles. Initially, the study "Cotton Prospects for the Next Decade" was intended to be a study of technological innovations that could lead to the necessary yield increases. However, because the interdependence between production and the textile industry influences government policies and these policies influence yield through their impact on the application of new technology, the scope of the study was widened to encompass policies on input supply and pricing, the farmgate price for seed cotton/lint and marketing. The importance of the textile industry in several of the countries in the study necessitated consideration of government policies on these industries. The study was conducted in Brazil, China, Egypt, India, Mali, Mexico, Pakistan, Tanza- nia and Uzbekistan. China, India, Pakistan and Uzbekistan were selected as four of the world's top five cotton producing countries. Egypt produces fully irrigated, speciality cotton which has the best quality of its type in the world. Until recently, Brazil was the sixth highest cotton pro- ducer in the world and also the sixth largest consumer. Mexico has been an important producer but production has declined, largely because of government policies on alternative crops. Finally Mali and Tanzania represent two countries which have environmental similarities but differ in the level of management of their cotton sub-sectors. Introduction 3 Local, multi-disciplinary teams of consultants were employed to conduct the country studies. The country report were reviewed in each country at a meeting attended by the study teamn and representatives of all sectors of the cotton industry. The World Bank employed inter- national consultants to review the draft documents and to assist in the preparation of a synthe- sized draft report, a draft document on Challenges and Recommendations and a draft document on Country Policies. These documents were discussed at the Ismailia International Workshop, 'Cotton Production Prospects for the Next Decade' which was organized by the Canada Egypt Mcgill Agricultural Response Program, in cooperation with the Egyptian Government, from No- vember 14 to 17, 1994. Representatives of each of the study teams and specialist consultants participated in this workshop to identify common conclusions of the case studies and to discuss the study follow-up. This document is a synthesis of the reports of the target country study teams. Chapter 6 brings together their conclusions and recommendations which formed the basis of discussions at the Ismailia International Workshop, and provides a summary of the workshop discussions. 4 Cottn Production Prospects for the Next Decade Figure 1: World Cotton Production and Hectarage: Five Year Averages 1946 to 1995 35,000.... 30,000- 23000 . ..... , , ' ' ' , ' , l,~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~....-Xw, l..'..,., 20,000 ... 15,000 10 000 ... 5,000 - 0 - s0 - 0D - 0 - \0 _~ 0 _ | Production '000 mt * Area Planted 000 ha Source: ICAC Fgure 2 World Coton Yield: Five Year Averages 1946 to 1995 600 500 400 ... 300 .f . 200- .. ............. . . . . - 5. . . . . . . . .:. . . . f. . . . . -. . .1 :-:.-:t .......... uu - - -- '. -... ' ,,,,,X', f -,~~.''-"" ... . .""-'". 400 ~ ~~~~~ ......00... Yield KgHa| Source. ICAC CHAPTERI COTTON: ITS ORIGINS AND AREAS OF PRODUCTION Historical Background Cotton differs from other field crops in that it is an oil crop which is grown for its fiber, an outgrowth from the seed epidermis. Fibers develop as elongations of surface cells in the seedcoat and being part of the seed, follow the same developmental pathway. Cottonseed consti- tutes about 65 percent of the seed cotton and contains about 17 percent oil and 24 percent pro- tein. The oil which is semi unsaturated, is used for cooking, soap making and other purposes. During oil extraction, the rest of the seed embryo is converted into protein rich oil-cake, a valu- able stock feed. Normal cotton seed contains a pigment known as gossypol which is toxic to non rumi- nant animals, rendering cottonseed cake suitable for ruminants only. However, with careful processing, high quality, protein rich cottonseed flour can be produced which is sufficiently low in free gossypol to make it suitable for human consumption. This has been used in Central America for the production of a protein rich beverage known as 'Incaparina' which is fed to chil- dren to prevent protein malnutrition. Glandless (gossypol free) varieties have been developed but they are more susceptible to insect pests. Despite this, they have been grown successfully in parts of Texas and West Africa to produce protein rich flour for baking and other culinary pur- poses. A number of countries, including Brazil, China and Mali, are developing glandless cotton varieties. Research is also under way to develop varieties with glanded vegetation but glandless seed to overcome the problem of the insect susceptibility of glandless cotton but to produce gossypol-free seed. Cultivated cottons fall into three main groups, based on fiber properties. Group I is the Egyptian, American Egyptian or Pima and Sea Island Extra Long Staple Gossypium barbadense cottons. The fiber is long and fine with a staple length in excess of 32 mm and a Micronaire value below 4.0. Group II consists of the American and African Upland Medium Staple G. hir- sutum cottons. The staple length is about 25 to 30 mm and the Micronaire value ranges from 3.8 to 5.0. These two groups of New World, allotetraploid species account for 8.0 percent and 90.0 percent of world production, respectively. Group III contains two diploid species of Asiatic or Old World Short Staple cotton, G. arboreum and G. herbaceum, the former being the most widely grown. The lint of these species is short and coarse with a staple length less than 25 mm and a Micronaire value in excess of 6.0. They are grown commercially in India, Pakistan and other parts of South East Asia and as dooryard crops in parts of Asia and Africa, accounting for about two percent of the world cotton production. Gossypium spp. are widely distributed and wild species have been discovered in all con- tinents that extend into the sub-tropics. The wild, lintless species are perennial, xerophytic shrubs which occur naturally in arid regions of the tropics and sub-tropics. They occur com- monly in the beds and on the banks of creeks and streams that are dry for most of the year but some are sufficiently drought tolerant to spread to dry, rocky hillsides or over arid, stony or 5 6 Cotton Production Prospects for the Next Decade rocky plains. They are plants of open association, suffering severely from heavy competition in the seedling stage or under overhead shade (Hutchinson, Silow and Stephens, 1947). Many of these characteristics are found in the cultivated species which are sensitive to weed competition and relatively drought tolerant. They are capable of giving some yield under drought conditions which would cause most other crops to fail. The Old World, diploid species are more drought tolerant and insect resistant than the New World, allotetraploid species. The seed fibers of true cottons consist of long, fine, flattened and convoluted hairs called lint that can be easily detached from the seed and short, coarse hairs called fuzz or linters that are firmnly attached to the seed (Hutchinson, 1959). The presence of seed fibers in linted cottons in both the Old and New World species probably provided the main impetus for their domestication (Lee, 1984). Hutchinson (1954) concluded that G. herbaceum race afticanum which is found in Southern Africa, is truly wild and represents the closest modern relative to the progenitor of the diploid species. This race gave rise to the primitive cultivated race acerifolium which spread northward following the development of an annual habit and led to the races persicum in Arabia and the very early race kuljianum which was adapted to the hot summers of Central Asia. Primi- tive perennial G. herbaceums spread to India and gave rise to the earliest forms of G. arboreum. This moved into the alluvial areas of what is now Bangladesh where the perennial northern form of G. arboreum developed. These forms spread throughout the areas of the Old World which were suitable for the production of perennial cotton. However, the success of cotton as a textile material necessitated the production of cotton in areas where perennial growth was not possible. The need was first filled by G. herbaceum, giving rise to the evolution of the race wightianum. This was followed by the development of annual G. arboreums which spread throughout the cotton producing areas, relegating the perennial forms to relic status (Hutchinson, 1959). IIutchinson et al (1947) considered that the evolution of cotton growing and spinning occurred in an area that already had the technology for spinning and weaving flax (Linum usitatissimum L.) and wool. This is given credence by the findings of cotton remains in Nubia (Chowdhury and Burth, 1971) and at Mohenjo-Daro in Pakistan, dating from about 2,700 BC (Gulati and Turner, 1928; Lee, 1984). The spread of domesticated cottons was closely connected to commerce and industry. Mohenjo Daro was a flourishing metropolis at the heart of the Indus civilization. The Churka or Jerka had been invented to remove cotton fiber from the seed and although this was still a labori- ous process, it was much faster than hand separation (Lee, 1984)'. Churkas can still be found in some of the villages of South East Asia. Cotton spread from the Indus westward into the Middle East and eastward into other parts of South Asia, South East Asia and China. Archeological rec- ords from China reveal that cotton was widely grown more than 2,000 years ago. It is believed to have reached China along one of two trade routes, G. herbaceum along the northern route from Arabia through Iran and Pakistan into Xinjiang and later Gansu and Shaanxi Provinces and G. arboreum along the southern route from India through Burma, Thailand and Vietnam to Yun- nan, Guangxi and Guangdong Provinces (Wang et al, 1994). G. arboreum spread through China into Manchuria, Korea and Japan where only early maturing annuals could survive, giving rise to the evolution of a distinctive race, G. arboreum var. sinense (Hutchinson, 1959). It has been established that New World cottons are allotetraploid with twenty six pairs of chromosomes, consisting of thirteen pairs from the "A" genome and thirteen from the "D" iThis consisted of two wooden pinch rollers of about 30 cm long and about 25 mm in diameter, with one slightly smaller than the other. Fibers were drawn between the two rollers and separated from the seed Cotton: Its Origins and Areas of Production 7 genome, symbolized as 2(AD). The "A" genome is homologous with Old World cottons and the "D" genome is homologous with New World wild species. Central to the problem of the evolu- tion of New World species is how the parent forms came together to permit hybridization. Hutchinson et al (1947) hypothesized that new World, tetraploid species may have evolved un- der domestication, following the introduction of an Old World cotton, probably G. arboreum. The Old World taxon then hybridized with a New World taxon, possibly G. raimondii Ulb., giv- ing rise to the prototype from which the tetraploid species of Gossypium diverged (Lee. 1984). The alternative theory places the hybridization much earlier, without human intervention. Har- land (1939) considered a trans-pacific land bridge while Saunders (1961) discussed the possibil- ity that hybridization occurred before the super continent Gondwanaland split up. Be that as it may, the Indians in South America were growing and utilizing cotton for thousands of years. The oldest cotton found in the New World which was shown to be G. barbadense, was in a large mound, made up of human refuse, at Huaca Prieta at the mouth of the Chicama River in North- ern Peru (Hutchinson, 1959). Carbon dating of material at the bottom of the mound places it at about 2400 BC. These primitive cottons of western South America may be regarded as represen- tatives of the source material from which the G. barbadense cottons of other areas arose, includ- ing the modern Tanguis of Peru, Sea Island and Egyptian (Hutchinson, 1959). The spread of New World cottons also depended on commerce but was initially more closely connected to migration. Seven races of G. hirsutum have been identified in Central America and three of these, races punctatum, marie-galante and latifolium, have given rise to all the cultivated Upland cottons. The marie galantes gained in fineness and staple length through introgression with the finer components of G. barbadense and are found as tree cottons in the Caribbean and as moco cotton in north east Brazil. They also became established in parts of West Africa but are not known elsewhere beyond the New World (Hutchinson, 1959). Race punctatum was the cotton of eastern Mexico and Honduras and spread along the coast and is- lands of the Gulf of Mexico as far as Barbados (Ibid). Annual forms of punctatum developed into the Hopi cottons which were part of a northern migration into the American southwest, in- volving maize, beans and squash (Lee, 1984). Punctatums also spread into Africa and sup- planted the Asiatic cottons right across Africa, south of the Sahara. They were found to have a high level of resistance to bacterial blight, Xanthomonas malvacearum, and have been an impor- tant component of recent breeding programs (Hutchinson, 1959). Apart from the West African punctatums, all the annual forms of G. hirsutum belong to the race latifolium. The center of ori- gin was in what is now the state of Chiapas in Mexico where it was predominantly photoperi- odic, flowering only in short days. Forms that were capable of flowering irrespective of day length were developed in the southeastern United States and gave rise to all the cottons to which the name Upland applies (Ibid). The Sea Island forms of G. barbadense were introduced into the south Atlantic coastal regions of what is now the United States in 1785. The annual habit of these cottons was a matter of pre-adaptation (Lee, 1984). Stephens (1975, 1976) hypothesized that Sea Island cottons might have become day neutral as a result of introgression from a photoperiodic form of G. hirsutum into a coarse fibered form of G. barbadense before 1785. The progeny were day neutral and had the distinctive fiber properties for which Sea Island cotton is known (Lee, 1984). In the early 1820s, Sea Island hybridized with Jumel's tree cotton which was probably a perennial form of G. barbadense from Peru, in Egypt, giving rise to the distinctive Egyptian cottons (Balls, 1912). Egyptian cotton later gave rise through hybridization, to the Pima cottons of southwestern United States (Bryan, 1955) and the limbless or zero varieties of Uzbekistan (Lee, 1984). 8 Cotton Production Prospects for the Next Decade The invention of the spinning jenny by Arkwright in 1769 was the first major step in the development of modern textile technology and paved the way for the industrial revolution in Europe. Development of New World cotton production was handicapped by the separation of fiber from seed. The invention of the saw cotton engine by Eli Whitney in 1795 solved this problem and revolutionized cotton production. This is reflected in the increase in production from 683 mt in 1790 to 45,550 mt in 1815. The name "cotton engine" became abbreviated to "cotton gin," a name that has gained universal acceptance. Efforts to improve the performance of the Churka gave rise to the invention of the McCarthy roller gin in 1840. These gins were gentler on the fiber than Eli Whitney's saw gin and were simpler and easier to maintain. Roller gins became the standard system for long staple cotton and became widely accepted as the standard method of ginning medium staple cotton in many parts of Africa and Asia. The higher yield and quality of the New World cottons resulted in the gradual replace- ment of Old World cottons in the textile mills of England. The United States was the main pro- ducer of this cotton and the economy of the Southern States flourished as cotton plantations grew. However, this economy was based on slave labor and eventually contributed to the War between the States (1861-64). Cotton production plunged during the war from an average of 763,319 mt between 1855 and 1859 to 463,003 mt for the period 1860 to 1864 and 481,602 mt between 1865 and 1869. The drop in American production stimulated cotton production in India and Egypt and to efforts to grow cotton in Australia, South Africa, the Tokar Delta in Sudan and elsewhere. Cecil John Rhodes who made his fortune in South Africa from diamonds, originally went there for health reasons to help his brother grow cotton in Natal. The Southern States gradually recovered from the war and by the early part of the twen- tieth century, the United States totally dominated world cotton production with an average an- nual production for the five years 1902-06 amounting to some 62 percent of the world total of 4.18 million mt. About 75 percent of the United Kingdom cotton imports came from the USA. The British Cotton Growing Association (BCGA) was established in 1902 to reduce reliance on the USA and the drain on hard currency reserves by increasing production in the Empire. Funds were subscribed by Associations of employers and operatives, by large firms connected with the cotton trade and by private individuals. The Association investigated almost every country of the Empire where there appeared to be a reasonable chance of producing good quality cotton on a commercial scale. Ginneries were established to gin and bale cotton lint, for export to the United Kingdom (Bell and Gillham, 1989). Twin cotton research stations were established at Giza in Egypt and at Wad Medani in the Gezira in Sudan, the latter in 1918. The Empire Cotton Growing Corporation (ECGC) (later the Cotton Research Corpora- tion (CRC)) was established in 1921 under Royal Charter with "the objective of extending and promoting in the interests of our Empire the growing and cultivation of cotton in our Dominions, Colonies, Protectorates, Protected States and in any country or place over which we have or may have any mandate or control." The British Cotton Growers Association (BCGA) was taking care of the commercial aspects of cotton production so the ECGC concentrated on research and ex- perimentation to establish a sound foundation in suitable territories on which to base the new industry. The policy decided on was to encourage cotton production by local peasant farmers rather than to embark on large scale, estate production. The ECGC worked in the anglophone countries of Africa, India, the West Indies and Australia. It covered a very wide range of climatic conditions, offering a unique opportunity to Cotton: Its Origins and Areas of Production 9 study cotton growth and development in all its aspects. The main aim was to improve the yield of cotton lint without loss of quality and if possible, to improve quality concurrently. Emphasis was placed on plant breeding since advances in yield can be achieved through the introduction of higher yielding varieties with little or no extension effort whereas the adoption of new produc- tion technology takes time and requires considerable extension input. Developments in France followed a similar pattern to those in the United Kingdom. The Compagnie Fran,aise pour le Developpement des Textiles (CFDT) was established to look after cotton marketing and ginning and the Institut de Recherches du Coton et des Textiles Exotiques (IRCT) was established to conduct cotton research in the francophone countries of West Africa. The CFDT provided facilities for adaptive research and extension. The French tropical research institutes have been restructured and the IRCT now forms part of the Centre de Cooperation In- ternationale en Recherches Agronomique pour le Developpement: Departement des Cultures Annuelles (CIRAD CA) which has central research facilities located in Montpellier, France. Although widely scattered and only meeting occasionally, the staff of the CRC and the IRCT demonstrated the advantages of working as a team in order to maintain continuity and in- tegration of their research policy. Recently CIRAD CA has turned its attention to the develop- ment of research within the framework of regional networks. They do not play a direct role in the coordination of the Regional Network for the Mediterranean and Middle East but this activ- ity is carried out by a former Director General of the IRCT. They have held meetings to convert their francophone African network into a network covering all cotton growing areas in sub- Saharan Africa. These endeavors have had the support of the International Cotton Advisory Committee (ICAC) and the Food and Agricultural Organization (FAO). Regional networks have also been established in Latin America. In many developing regions of the world, future prog- ress in research and development appears to lie in regional cooperation. The ultimate goal is an international network and the first step in this direction occurred with the First World Cotton Research Conference held in Brisbane, Australia in February 1994 which was financed by the FAO, the ICAC and the Australian Cotton Research Fund. The hope is that resources will be available for this to be a regular event at intervals of three to five years. After the Africa colonies gained independence, the British and French organizations moved in different directions. The CRC continued to work on a contract basis for several years but eventually ceased operation in 1974. The IRCT (CIRAD CA) continued to work in West Africa and expanded its activities to become a consultant on cotton projects in many countries in other parts of Africa, Latin America, the Middle East and South East Asia. The BCGA dropped its managerial role and became a consulting organization, now forming part of the Cargill group. The CFDT continues to play an active role in the development of agriculture and industry in francophone West Africa. Following independence, each country in the region established its own cotton development company and with the assistance of the CFDT, continues to provide many functions and services in both agricultural and industrial de- velopment. This includes applied research, the multiplication and distribution of adapted varie- ties, the development of animal drawn and motorized cultivation equipment, the introduction of appropriate production and crop protection practices, the setting up of cooperatives to manage inputs, agricultural credit, machinery and marketing, shelling units and oil mills, soap production units, acid delinting facilities, power plants, roads, transport and handling, and management services in agricultural development. These activities have been extremely important in the de- velopment of the region. 10 Cotton Production Prospects for the Next Decade Just as the war between the States in America had devastated the cotton economy of the South in the 1860s, the cotton boll weevil, Anthonomus grandis Boh. which entered Texas from Mexico in 1895, devastated the economy during the early part of the twentieth century. Sea Is- land cotton had been produced in the coastal areas of Georgia and South Carolina and on the is- lands of the coast but being late maturing, it was devastated by the weevil and production ceased. In order to ensure continued supplies of long staple cotton, the Lancashire Fine Spinners and Doublers purchased a tract of land near Greenville in the Mississippi Delta to produce long sta- ple cotton. This became the Delta and Pine Land Company at Scott, Mississippi which remained in British ownership until it was purchased by the Prudential Insurance Company in the 1970s. Long staple cotton did not do well in the Delta and was replaced by medium staple Upland cot- ton. This failure, coupled with a poor Egyptian crop in 1920, resulted in the Firestone and Goodyear Tyre Companies investing in the development of Pima cotton in Arizona. The development of new insecticides following the Second World War revolutionized cotton production. Spectacular yield increases were achieved in traditional cotton producing ar- eas and cotton production expanded into areas which were formerly considered unsuitable be- cause of the incidence of insect pests. The area planted to cotton increased from an annual aver- age of 26 million ha between 1946 and 1950 to 35 million between 1951 and 1955. This was a major factor contributing to the increase in world cotton production which rose from an average of 5.2 million mt to 7.9 million mt despite a relatively small increase in yield from 199.6 to 222.2 kg/ha lint for the two periods, respectively (Table 1.1, 1.2 and 1.3). However, over- reliance on insecticides created new problems. The elimination of natural enemies and the de- velopment of insecticide resistance resulted in resurgence of known pests and pests which had previously been of little importance became major pests. This resulted in greater awareness of the need to develop insect control strategies which recognize the need for discriminate use of insecticides at certain stages of crop development but place greater reliance on biological con- trol, particularly early in the season, by delaying the introduction of chemical control and using selective chemicals whenever possible. Integrated Pest Management (IPM) has become the key to sustainable cotton production. The need to ensure regular supplies of cotton for the textile industry resulted in the de- velopment of several large scale irrigation schemes, one of the most notable being the Gezira Scheme on the Blue Nile in Sudan. During the latter part of the 19th Century, the Delta Barrage and Delta Irrigation Scheme were developed in Egypt. This was followed by the Aswan Dam (1902) and barrages at Asyut (1902), Esna (1906) and Zifta (1908) and extension of the Aswan Dam (1912). The Sukkur Barrage on the Indus River in Pakistan was built in the 1930s to irrigate cotton for the British textile industry. Major irrigation development occurred on the Amu Dar'ya and Syr Dar'ya Rivers in Central Asia to produce cotton for the textile industry of the Former Soviet Union (FSU). Irrigation development intended primarily for cotton production also oc- curred in Arizona and California in the United States, in Mexico, Israel, Australia and most re- cently, in Turkey. G. barbadense is native to Brazil and when the Portuguese arrived, they found the local Indians growing, spinning and weaving cotton. The colonists soon established the first subsis- tence farms (rocas), growing a few plants around their houses for domestic use. The industrial revolution transformed cotton into an export commodity with cotton going to the textile mills of England. From then until the 1930s, cotton production fluctuated with the demand of the Eng- lish textile mills. At the time, the Northeast Sententrional was the major cotton producing region but with the drop in coffee prices in 1929, cotton production became consolidated in Brazil, par- Cotton: Its Origins and Areas of Production 11 ticularly in the State of Sao Paulo which took over from the Northeast as the major cotton pro- ducing region. China has a long history of cotton production, the production of Old World cotton going back more than 2,000 years. However, Upland Gossypium hirsutum, introduced in 1865, has almost entirely replaced Old World cotton as the commercial crop of China. Long staple G. bar- badense was introduced in the early 1950s from Central Asia and is confined to production in Xinjiang Uigur Autonomous Territory. Cotton was first introduced into Egypt in 1820 by a French textile engineer, Louis Alexis Jumel who was strongly supported by Khedive Mohammad Ali Pasha. Several cultivars and va- rieties were brought in for trial and in 1860, the first local cultivar, Ashmouni, was selected in the village of Ashmoun in Menoufia Governorate. The American Civil War gave a big impetus to cotton production in Egypt. Ashmouni was grown throughout the delta except for a small area of Sea Island in the north of Gharbia. This was followed by the variety Metafifi which was dis- covered in a field of Ashmouni and probably arose from a natural cross between Ashmouni and Sea Island. Metafifi replaced Ashmouni in the Delta and was introduced to the United States where it gave rise to the development of Pima between 1910 and 1918. Prior to 1920, most va- riety improvement arose from selection within existing varieties. A program of hybridization and selection was established in 1920 and continues to the present (Stead, 1981). By the early 1950s, Egypt had established a name as the most important producer and exporter of long staple. Cotton emerged as the single most important cash crop and became a major contributor to the national income and foreign exchange earnings (Oteifa et al, 1994). Prior to 1914, most cotton types grown in India were annual forms of G. arboreum. Over the next two decades, Upland cotton, G. hirsutum, almost entirely replaced G. arboreum. Currently G. arboreum varieties account for about 16.0 percent of the Indian crop and 3.3 per- cent of the Pakistan crop. During the colonial period, most cotton development in the region occurred in the Indus Valley. At the time of separation in 1947, about 40 percent of the crop was produced in what became Pakistan while nearly 100 percent of the textile industry remained in the Indian Union. Since then, India has gone from being a large net importer of cotton, exporting only around 8,500 mt of Bengal Desi, G. arboreum, cotton to becoming a major exporter of me- dium staple, G. hirsutum and long staple, G. barbadense cotton. Cotton has been grown in the southern part of Mali since the XI century. This would have been an Old World species, probably G. acerifolium. A French technical mission traveled through Western Sudan, now Mali, in 1888 and took cotton samples for trial by the French tex- tile industry. However, modern production of cotton only began in 1930 when a program on rainfed cotton was initiated in the irrigated area of the Office du Niger. In 1946, the IRCT set up an extension strategy in Mali. Extension activities were taken over by the CFDT. In 1974, the Compagnie Malienne pour le Developpement des Textiles (CMDT) was created through an agreement between the Government of Mali and the CFDT in the form of a public, limited com- pany with mixed economy. Modern Upland cotton is believed to stem from a center of diversity near the border of Guatamala and Mexico (Hutchinson et al, 1947). Archeological remains of G. hirsutum have been found mostly in Mexico, the oldest being dated to about 3500 to 2300 BC. Thus Mexico, being located in the center of origin of the New World species G. hirsutum, has a very long his- tory of cotton production. During the Spanish colonial period from the XVI century to 1810, the 12 Cotton Production Prospects for the Next Decade textile industry was increasing in importance and by 1806, several thousand workers were em- ployed in the processing of wool and cotton. With the cost and problems of transportation, it is likely that the industry used locally produced cotton. By 1897, the industry consisted of 107 mills with 14,000 looms and 463,000 spindles. It employed 21 thousand workers and consumed 24,267 tons of lint. The area planted to cotton that year was 124 thousand ha. After the second world war there were major developments in cotton production in Mexico. However, the commercial climate favored the export of Mexican cotton to the USA, Europe and Asia and import of cotton from the USA for the domestic textile mills. The peak production of 1,288 thousand tons was achieved in 1965 although the harvested area began to decline in 1956. Lint yields increased from between 700 and 750 kg/ha in the 1950s to 1,057 kg/ha in 1987. Since then, the harvested area and the yields have declined. Major developments in cotton production and processing also occurred in the Indus Valley nearly three thousand years BC and this was an important step in the evolution of the Old World cotton species. Indeed, as was the case in India, prior to 1914, all the cotton types grown in what is now Pakistan were annual forrns of G. arboreum. Small quantities of G. hirsutum were introduced in 1884 but production never became established. In 1914, pure seed of the va- riety 4F was introduced and grown on about 800 ha. Within two decades, Upland cotton attained dominance and accounts for over 95 percent of the crop. Unlike the other countries in this study, the development of cotton production in Tanza- nia is comparatively recent, commercial cotton production having begun in the 1930s. Produc- tion was mainly directed towards supplying the textile industry of the United Kingdom. Uki- riguru research station was established near Mwanza in the Western Cotton Growing Area as a seed farm in 1930. A second station was established at Lubaga near Shinyanga at the same time and with the same objectives. In 1939, the Government of Tanganyika asked the ECGC to take over research work at both stations. They appointed two plant breeders to the WCGA and also appointed a plant breeder to work at Ilonga in the Eastern Cotton Growing Area. Emphasis was on variety development since yield advances arising from improved varieties can reach the farm- ers without any extension input whereas any changes in production technology requires a con- siderable amount of extension to attain acceptance. Production in Tanzania peaked at an average of 71,000 mt during the period 1971-75 but declined to average only 49,000 mt during the period 1981-85. Recently, there have been significant increases in production. Cotton production has a long history in Central Asia. Cotton fabrics manufactured in Bukhara and Samarkand were popular as early as the X century while export of cotton fiber and cloth to Russia was well established in the XVI century. There was active development of the textile industry in Tzarist Russia, requiring expansion of cotton production. Progress in develop- ing cotton production was disrupted by the First World War and the October Revolution. How- ever, by the late 1920s the FSU embarked on a program to make the region self sufficient in cotton. This resulted in major irrigation development on the Amu Dar'ya and Syr Dar'ya Rivers during the 1940s. Ultimately , this resulted directly in the ecological disaster facing the Aral Sea. Uzbekistan became the biggest cotton producer in the region, accounting for over 60 per- cent of the total crop of the FSU. In many countries, cotton is produced by smallholders who place first priority on food crops. The area planted to cotton is often determined by the availability of family labor. This presents many problems which are not experienced by medium or large scale growers. Cotton: Its Origins and Areas of Pmduction 13 Masses of statistical information on cotton production is available but the world of cot- ton is dynamic and historical data on their own are of little value unless they are presented in a manner that not only provides an understanding of the situation in a specific country at a particu- lar time but also of the situation if the world of cotton as a whole. An understanding of cotton production, the infrastructure supporting it, including research, and the textile industry is impor- tant in charting future trends in cotton producing countries. Geographic Distribution (Areas of Production) About 55 percent of the world cotton production occurs between 30° and 370 Noith lati- tude where the USA, and the PRC (excluding Xinjiang) are located. Uzbekistan and Xinjiang in China are the major producers north of this latitude with small quantities also produced in Greece, Bulgaria, Rumania, and Spain, amounting to about 16 percent of the world total. Thus about 71 percent is grown north of latitude 300 N and ripening before the first frost in Octo- ber/November. Most of the balance of the crop is produced between 300 North and 300 South latitude with under 10 percent in the Southern Hemisphere, ripening in May to July and over 20 percent in the Northern Hemisphere, ripening from December to February. In the tropics, the production period is determined by the water supply and the dry season for ripening and harvest- ing. Outside the tropics, it is determined largely by temperatures. The wide range of conditions under which cotton is grown spreads the supply through most of the year. Brazil Brazil falls in the center of origin of Gossypium barbadense with a small area in the northern part of the country representing an overlap region between the centers of origin of G. barbadense and G. hirsutum. Thus Brazil is rich in genetic resources in the form of wild rela- tives of the New World commercial species, including the species G. mustelinum. This material has been used as a source of natural variability in plant breeding programs in Brazil and various other countries of the world. The main cotton producing areas of Brazil are in the northeast, the mid west and the southeast. The northeastern Setentrional area is semi arid, accounting for under 10 percent of the national production. The mid west and southeast, grouped together as the Meridian area, account for the other 90 percent of the crop with the southeastern states of Parana (57.2 percent) and Sao Paulo (21.3 percent) accounting for nearly 80 percent, the remaining 10 percent coming from the mid western states of Goias, Mato Grosso do Sul and Mato Grosso. However, cotton production in the southeast is tending to decline because of competition from alternative crops. The main expansion is likely to come from large scale, mechanized development in the mid west. China The cotton belt in China extends from 180 to 460 N and 760 to 1240 E. However, this is misleading because it can be divided into three distinctive regions, the Yangtze River Valley with 30.6 percent of the production in 1990, the Yellow River Valleys with 61.3 percent and the Northwest Inland Cotton Producing Region with 7.8 percent. In southern China, there is some scattered production of cotton. Cotton is produced in fourteen provinces with the main concen- tration in Shandong, Henan, Hebei, Jiangsu and Hubei Provinces which fall between 280 and 370 N and 1110 and 120° E, and Xinjiang Uigur Autonomous Territory, the most northerly cotton producing region in the world, where it extends from 370 to 460 N and 760 to 90° E. These provinces account for 83 percent of the national total. The cotton growing areas have an ade- 14 Cotton Production Prospects for the Next Decade quate frost free period and accumulation of heat units to ensure a good yield potential. The Northwest Region is arid and relies on irrigation but the thermal conditions and hours of sun- shine facilitate high yields and quality. Major changes are occurring in the distribution of cotton growing areas in China because of the development of pyrethroid resistant bollworms, Helicoverpa armigera, in the Yellow River Valley. The main expansion in production is in the Northwest while the traditional cotton producing provinces in the Yellow River Valley, Shandong, Hebei and Henan, are tending to cut back on cotton planting because of the severity of the pyrethroid resistance problem. Egypt The cotton producing areas of Egypt extend from about 24° to 310 30' N latitude and 300 to 320 E longitude. The climate becomes harsher with increased distance from the Mediterra- nean Sea. The Extra Long Staple varieties Giza 45 and Giza 70 (Isis) are grown in the lower Delta Govemorates of Damietta and Daqahllya, the better quality Long Staple varieties are grown in the upper Delta and Middle Egypt and the most heat tolerant, lowest quality varieties, Dandara and its replacement, Giza 80, in upper Egypt. India India is the only country in the world that grows all four cultivated cotton species. The country is divided into three main cotton growing zones, the northern G. hirsutum and G. ar- boreum zone in the states of Punjab, Rajasthan and Haryana, accounting for about 1.7 million ha, the central G. hirsutum, G. arboreum and G. herbaceum zone in the states of Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh and Maharashtra, the major cotton producing region, accounting for 4.4 million ha and the southern G. hirsutum, G. arboreum, G. herbaceum and G. barbadense zone in the states of Andra Pradesh, Kamataka and Tamil Nadu, accounting for about 1.5 million ha. Mali Cotton is grown in the south of Mali at latitudes of 100 to 140 N and longitudes of 40 to 100 W, along tributaries of the Niger River. This is an irrigated area but irrigation water is used mainly for rice, cotton being grown as a rainfed crop. Mexico The main cotton producing areas of Mexico can be grouped into four regions, So- nora/Sinoloa, Laguna/Delicias, Mexicali and Chihuahua. In 1987, the share of the crop grown in each of these regions was 37, 30, 13, 11 percent, respectively. Small amounts, accounting for 9 percent of the crop in 1987, are grown in other states. Favorable prices for maize (coin) resulted in a sharp decline in the area planted to cotton in major regions. Most of the crop is irrigated. Pakistan Pakistan extends from towering mountains in the north to the ocean in the south. It is bi- sected by the Indus River and its tributaries which incorporate one of the greatest irrigation sys- tems in the world. The cotton belt extends over about 1,200 km. between latitudes 230 and 330 N latitude, at altitudes ranging from 153 meters (500 ft) in the north to 27 meters (90 ft) in the south. Soils are alluvial in origin and vary from sandy loam to clay loam with clay dominant towards the south. The country is divided into four provinces, the North West Frontier Province, Cotton: Its Origins and Areas of Production 15 Baluchistan, Punjab and Sindh, the latter two being the main cotton producing provinces. In 1993-94, Punjab and Sindh had 2,266 and 526 thousand ha, respectively, with 1,000 ha divided between the North West Frontier Province and Baluchistan. Rainfall is mainly during the summer from July to September when the climate is hot and humid. Sporadic rain may also occur between January and March. The amount of rain var- ies from over 762 mm (30") in the north to 152mm (6") in the south but the intensity and distri- bution are too irregular to produce satisfactory rainfed crops. Parts of the system are also subject to periodic flooding which can cause serious crop losses. Temperatures in May and June are as high as 400 to 450 C, often reaching 50° C on individual days. Winter temperatures often fall below freezing in the Punjab and upper Sindh but the lower Sindh is frost free. There are two distinct cropping seasons for Summer (Kharif) crops from April to October and Winter (Rabi) crops from October to April/May. Some short season crops are sandwiched between these main cropping seasons. The main crops are Wheat, Cotton, Rice, Maize and Sugarcane. The agriculture of the Indus Valley depends entirely on the canal irrigation system ema- nating from the rivers. The flow during the winter months accounts for about 16.0 percent and during the summer, about 84.0 percent of the total supply, with June to August accounting for 80.0 percent of the total. Water is supplied on a weekly basis, making irrigation supply driven. The supply is regulated through a series of dams which store water until it is needed during rela- tively dry periods. This cannot be varied according to crop water requirements. The total irri- gated area amounts to about 16.96 million ha, of which 11.74 m.ha are irrigated from canals, 4.26 m.ha from tubewells and the rest from other sources. The cultivated area has increased from 19.8 m.ha in 1975/76 to 21 m.ha in 1991 as a result of an increase in irrigation facilities. The potential land area available for further irrigation expansion is 8.8 m.ha, if irrigation sup- plies can be augmented. Tanzania The cotton producing areas of Tanzania extend from about latitude 20 to 80 S and longi- tude 310 to 380 E. At these latitudes, the differences between day and night length and tempera- ture are very limited. Some tropical areas also have extended periods of overcast weather which limits solar radiation. These factors impose a limit on the potential yield. There are two main cotton producing areas, the Western Cotton Growing Area (WCGA), located in the north-west of the country around the southern part of Lake Victoria, extending from latitude 20 to 6° S and longitude 310 to 350 E produces about 95 percent of the crop while the Eastern Cotton Growing Area (ECGA), located in the region beyond 35° E and 60 S, produces the balance of the crop. Uzbekistan. Uzbekistan is the second most northerly cotton producing area in the world, extending from 370 to 440 N latitude. The whole crop is irrigated with water from the Amu Dar'ya and Syr Dar'ya Rivers. The draw down in water flow in these rivers and intensive use of agro-chemicals has resulted in the disastrous environmental deterioration of the Aral Sea. Smallholder Cotton Production The level of cotton production ranges from large scale, mechanized estate production to smallholder production in which most field operations are done by hand, often by the farmer and his family without the assistance of employed labor. Large scale producers enjoy many advan- 16 Cotton Production Prospects for the Next Decade tages over smallholders and generally achieve higher yields because mechanization and chemical weed control enable them to carry out field operations in a timely fashion. In some countries, they are aided by advanced technology which is used to interpret data on insect pest populations, the weather and plant development, aiding farmers in making management decisions on spray- ing, irrigation and fertilizer applications. Smallholders give food security precedence over cash crops, leading to late planting, thinning and weeding and resulting in reduced yields and often, increased insect activity. The importance of food crops is so ingrained that changes are unlikely, even with intensive extension. However, even though the economic return of smallholders are often disappointing and provides little incentive for farmers to grow the crop, smallholder pro- duction is regarded as sociologically important because it provides seasonal labor opportunities and promotes rural cash flow, exerting a stabilizing influence. Furthermore, the deep rooting habit of cotton makes it a valuable rotation crop. The degree of mechanization in smallholder production varies widely from country to country. In the simplest form of production, all tillage and cultivation is by hand and is often late and of doubtful effectiveness. Even with good insect control, yields are usually disappoint- ing. The use of draft animals for plowing improves the timeliness and effectiveness of land preparation and could lead to more timely planting but competition for labor for planting and cultivation may remain a major constraint to higher yields. The introduction of animal drawn tillers, planters and cultivators could improve timeliness in other field operations, leading to in- creases in both yield levels and stability. Some of the advantages of scale could be achieved through consolidating cotton growing areas so that a group of smallholder plots can be treated as a single unit. This would enable farmers to share equipment and labor resources and would have the additional advantage of fa- cilitating a restricted planting period, an important aspect of insect pest management. When this is combined with the introduction of animal drawn tillage and cultivation equipment in food crop production, improvements are likely in overall farming standards, leading to major improve- ments in the yields of all crops as a result of more timely field operations. In the francophone countries, consolidation has paved the way for the establishment of farmers cooperatives which procure small tractors and other equipment for the group. Coopera- tives in Greece provide for the mechanization of all field operations in cotton production, includ- ing spraying and harvesting. Consolidation of cotton plots in itself provides some advantages but when this is combined with the development of farmers cooperatives, the productivity and economic status of the community as a whole is raised. Large scale producers also enjoy advantages in marketing. Based on 580 kg/ha lint yield (approximately 1,700 kg/ha seed cotton, the current world average), 37 ha would produce a 100 bale contract. Large scale producers in the USA and Australia are able to contract most of the crop, often before planting. It would take 75 to 150 smallholders, averaging a quarter to one half hectare and assuming that they attain this yield, to produce 100 bales. Thus individual small- holders do not produce a marketable commodity and clearly, cotton produced by a number of smallholders has to be brought together before it is marketable. Historically, this has often been done by a government or parastal enterprise but it can also be accomplished by a cooperative or by private traders. Logically, the cotton ginneries are the first point where seed cotton from a number of individual growers can be physically combined into marketable lots although this function may be performed by intermediaries who purchase seed cotton from the growers. Cotton: Its Origins and Areas of Production 17 Organization and Role in the Economy Cotton plays a major role in the economies of many developing countries. For example, in India over 60 million people derive income from the cotton/textile sector (Bell and Gillham 1989). No crop competes with cotton's potential for value added in processing (Hitchings 1984). In Pakistan, the textile industry employs over 35 percent of the industrial labor force, the export earnings from cotton and textiles amounts to over two thirds of the total exports earnings and the oil extracted from cotton seed accounts for 85 percent of the vegetable oil production in the country (Ahmad and Ali 1993). Three quarters of the export earnings of Uzbekistan are derived from the sale of cotton lint (Kim et al, 1994) and forty percent of the workforce depend on cotton for employment. Cotton growing in 1992 accounted for 52 percent of total gross agricultural income. Cotton is grown on 450 thousand ha or about 9 percent of the total land under cultivation but 40 percent of the population of Tanzania depend on cotton as a source of income. The textile industry relies on locally produced cotton, utilizing 30 percent of the total crop while cottonseed contributes 70 percent of locally produced vegetable oil. During the past decade, cotton lint ex- ports have contributed an average 15 percent to foreign exchange earnings, second only to cof- fee. Increased production in 1992-93 made cotton the leading export, accounting for 22 percent of export earnings (Tisco, 1994). The population in China's major cotton growing areas is 250 million and 50 million households grow cotton. Cotton only occupies between two and three percent of total cultivated area but the value is seven to ten percent of total agricultural output value. The textile industry employs 9 million workers and textiles contribute about 25 percent of the total export value. Cotton remains an important crop in Egypt but its importance has diminished due to the pressure to grow food crops. Cotton's share of summer crop area has declined from a peak of 66 percent in the 1960s to about 20 percent of the land in the 1990s. Both the quantity and value of exports declined from the decade of the 1970s to the 1980s by 14 and 7 percent respectively. However, lint exports remain the fifth largest earner of foreign exchange behind the remittances of workers abroad, Suez Canal fees, oil revenues and tourism. The textile industry is the largest domestic employer. The cotton sub-sector in Mali has grown at a rate of 8.4 percent per annum in recent years, it has contributed 15 percent to the increase in GNP and represents 50 percent of the Mali exports. The cotton zone is the richest in Mali with an average annual income five times the na- tional average. This is due to the monitoring activity of the CMDT and the diversification policy which has made the cotton zone into the granary of the country. The marketing of Mali cotton has been characterized by reliability of cotton production and quality, leading to regular custom- ers until the 1980s when increased production necessitated diversification in clientele. On the other hand, the domestic uptake of cotton has declined, largely because of cheap imports from Asia. However, the value of cottonseed has increased domestically because of the development of small oil mills (Deme et al, 1994). The importance of cotton to Mexico and Brazil is primarily through the textile sectors which are rapidly expanding in both countries. Cotton production is a major activity in both countries but in Brazil, cotton is produced almost exclusively for the domestic textile industry 18 Cotton Production Prospects for the Next Decade while in Mexico, the textile industry utilizes a lot of imported cotton, mainly from the USA, most of the domestic crop being exported because its quality tends to be too high for the local mill needs. In Mexico, cotton occupied 7.8 and 7.3 percent of the area planted to field crops during the decades of the 1970s and 1980s, respectively, but the area has declined to around five percent in the 1990s. The entire cotton/textile complex in Brazil employs ten million people. Performance of the Cotton Subsector This section outlines the recent performance of the cotton sub-sectors in the nine study countries. Unless otherwise stated, all yield and production data are in terms of lint. Brazil During the 1950s, the development strategy in Brazil concentrated on the industrial sec- tor to the detriment of the agricultural sector, Nonetheless, cotton production increased from a five year average of 292 thousand mt in the period 1946 to 1950 to 735 thousand mt between 1986 and 1990, with record production of 965 thousand mt in 1989-90 (Table 1.1). This made Brazil the sixth largest producer in the world. It is also the sixth largest consumer of cotton and production was previously in balance with consumption. Since 1990, production has declined and is projected to average 580 thousand mt between 1991 and 1995. In 1992-93 national pro- duction was only 410.5 thousand mt, about 62 percent of the production of the previous year and only 42 percent of the 1985 level. The Meridian Region which is responsible for over 87 percent of the national crop, had its worst year, with official estimates highlighting a remarkable de- crease in the production in the major cotton producing states of Sao Paulo and Parana. This has resulted in the most serious crisis in twenty years, necessitating a four fold increase in imports from 108 thousand mt in 1991-92 to over 400 thousand in 1993-94. The main cause of the de- cline in production has been a decline in area planted to cotton from an average of 2.404 million ha in the period 1966-70 to an average of 1.568 million ha estimated between 1991 and 1995 (Table 1.2). Yields have tended to increase steadily since 1946 from an average of 149 kg/ha during the period 1946-50 to 370 kg/ha average during the period 1991-95, about 63 percent of the world average for the same period (Table 1.3). Increased production is occurring in the States of Mato Grosso and Mato Grosso do Sul where the main development is large scale, mechanized production and bulk handling. This should reduce reliance on labor and eliminate contamination with jute, polypropylene and poly- ester fibers from picking bags and ties. Mechanical harvesting will necessitate investment in new ginning equipment with ancillary dryers and seed cotton and lint cleaners. The introduction of dryers and cleaners to existing ginneries would cost an estimated US$ 152,000 while new installations with a capacity of 15 bales/hour would cost an estimated US$ 1,360,000. High ca- pacity equipment would cost an estimated US$ 2,143,000 per installation. An outline of the relevant equipment with approximate costs and are discussed in Chapter 2. The development of the industrial sector resulted in the top quality cotton being ab- sorbed domestically while the lower quality was procured by the government and held indefi- nitely until it could be exported to Asian textile manufacturing countries. The government also operated a price support system similar to the Loan Program in the USA. Under this support, the crop peaked at 970,000 mt in 1985. This coincided with a record Chinese crop and a sharp de- cline in cotton prices. The government could not maintain the program and began moving into a market economy by removing import protection. While this protection of cotton producers was being removed, the subsidies on inputs remained. The last good crop produced in Brazil was Cotton: Its Origins and Areas of Production 19 860,000 mt in 1986. Since then, competition with alternative crops, cheap cotton imports and the high labor requirements for cotton have seriously jeopardized continued cotton production. The future appears to lie in large scale, mechanized production in the west which will introduce logistical transportation problems in getting the crop to the spinning mills in the east. China China produced an annual average of about 2.5 million mt in the period 1971-75 and 2.2 million mt for the period 1976-80 (Table 1.1). Rapid expansion in production followed the im- plementation of reforms in marketing in the 1980s, leading to an average production of 4.03 mil- lion mt during the period 1981-85 and of 3.97 million mt during the period 1986-90 (Table 1.1). This represented, an increase of nearly 80 percent during the 1980s on the production during the 1970s. However, the area planted to cotton increased by only about 10 percent from an average of 4.77 million ha during the 1970s to 5.38 million ha in the 1980s (Table 1.2), most of the in- crease in production having come from an increase in yield from 455 kg/ha in the 1970s to 742 kg/ha in the 1980s (Table 1.3), an increase of 63 percent. The 1984 crop was a record 6.26 mil- lion mt. The government introduced controls to limit cotton production, bringing it down to 3.54 million mt in 1986. Production remained at about 4.0 million mt during the rest of the 1980s but then improved prices increased the competitive position of cotton and production rose to 4.5 million mt in 1990 and 5.68 million mt in 1991. The aim is to sustain production at this level through the 1990s. China has demonstrated its capacity to raise production to match domestic demand but they face a crisis. Unrestricted distribution of registered Pyrethroid insecticides has resulted in excessive use, contributing to the development of a high level of resistance in the bollworm, Helicoverpa armigera, population. Initially, this was confined largely to Shandong, Henan and Hebei provinces and contributed to a decline in yield from 860 to 660 kg/ha and in production from 5.7 to 4.5 million mt in 1992-93, even though there was an increase in area planted from 6.5 to 6.8 million ha (ICAC, 1994) (Table IA.2). During the 1994-95 season, the resistant population in other cotton growing areas tended to enlarge. This is likely to have a dramatic ef- fect on the planted area, yield and production until the problem is resolved. Egypt Egypt is still the major producer of the finest cotton in the world but production has de- clined sharply over the past twenty years. Of the nine varieties currently in cultivation, four are extra long staple and five are long staple types. The ELS types are grown exclusively in Lower Egypt while of the LS types, only Giza 75 is grown in both Lower and Middle Egypt. The high- est yields have been obtained from the ELS varieties Giza 70 and Giza 76, followed by the LS varieties Giza 77 and Giza 75. The lowest yields are attained from the ELS variety Giza 45, the premier quality variety in Egypt and Giza 31 (Dandara), a hardy LS variety grown in Middle Egypt. Yields are generally higher in the Delta Governorates than in Middle and Upper Egypt. In order to maintain quality standards and prevent mixed bales of lint, the areas and ginneries for each of the nine varieties are clearly demarcated and controlled by government decree. Until the late 1960s, cotton in rotation with short season berseem clover gave the highest return and was the preferred option. The area planted to cotton remained above 700 thousand ha from 1951 to 1970 (Table 1.2) and production increased from an average of 362 thousand mt during the period 1951-55 to 480 thousand mt during the period 1966-70 (Table 1.3). Yield in- creased from 489 kg/ha to 675 kg/ha for the same two periods. The cotton area started to decline 20 Cotton Production Prospects for the Next Decade in the late 1970s and early 1980s from 685 thousand ha (1.63 million feddans) in 1970 to 521 thousand ha (1.24 million feddans) in 1980 and 353 thousand ha (840 thousand feddans) in 1992 because of farmer disenchantment with the government controlled crop. Cotton's share of the summer cropping area has fallen from 50 percent to only 20 percent. The output of raw cotton fell from 445 thousand mt (8.9 million metric kentars) in 1970 to 300 thousand mt (6.0 million metric kentars) in 1992. During the 1980's, there was a decline in yield which accounted for a considerable amount of the reduced production. However, the situation appears to have turned around with 1993 yields back to the level of the 1970s. India Cotton production in India progressed steadily from an average of 543 thousand mt dur- ing the period 1946-50 to 2.19 million mt during the period 1991-95 (Table 1.1). The area planted to cotton increased from 5.14 million ha to 7.56 million ha for the same two periods, re- spectively (Table 1.2). Thus production increased 400 percent while the area planted to cotton increased by only 144 percent. Yield increases from 105.8 kg/ha to 290.1 kg/ha for the two peri- ods, an increase of 274 percent (Table 1.3), accounted for most of the increase in production. The area planted to cotton actually decreased from 7.98 million ha in 1961-62 to 7.54 million ha in 1992-93 but production increased from 739 thousand mt (4.35 mn bales) to 2.04 million mt (12 million bales) for the two years, respectively. The increase in production is largely ac- counted for by the increase in yield from 106 kg/ha in 1961-62 to 309 kg/ha in 1992-93. Despite this increase, average yields in India for the period 1991-95 are only about 50 percent of the world average and of the countries in the study, only Tanzania has lower yields (Table 1.6). The yield of irrigated cotton in 1992-93 was 570 kg/ha compared to 130 kg/ha for rain-fed cotton. The yield of irrigated cotton is close to the world average of 582 kg/ha for the period 1991-95. India has experienced problems with pyrethroid resistance, particularly in Andra Pradesh. The average number of spray applications is 10 but some parts of the Punjab and Hary- ana are reported to be spraying up to 25 to 35 times. A contributing factor, once again, has been unregulated distribution of registered pesticide products. This has resulted in excessive, indis- criminate use of pyrethroids. All pesticides are supposedly registered but then there is no control on the quality or distribution of products reaching the farmers. The leaf curl virus which has devastated the crop in Pakistan is reported to have found its way into the Punjab in India. The impact of these two problems will become apparent over the next two to three years. Efforts are being made to contain leaf curl virus in India in the short term by chemical control of whiteflies which are the main vector, identification of resistant genotypes and roguing and destruction of infected cotton plants and weeds. Long term measures proposed include the establishment of a buffer zone along the international border where the only cotton varieties permitted will be Desi cotton, G. arboreum, which is more resistant to the virus and a second buffer zone where resistant varieties of G. hirsutum will be permitted. It is proposed that the disease should be monitored as a long term undertaking throughout the country. The crops in the buffer zones are to be protected from whiteflies and a ban is proposed on the production of Okra (Bhindi), Abelmoschus (Hibiscus) esculentus, a common alternative host of CLCV, between March and June to prevent a build up of the disease and its vector in advance of the season. Mali Production in Mali increased from 6,381 mt of seed cotton in 1960 to 319,000 mt in 1992. This translates into an increase from 2,230 mt to 127,000 mt of lint for the same years, Cotton: Its Origins and Areas of Production 21 respectively. An increase in ginning outturn (GOT) from 35.0 percent in 1960-61 to 42.3 percent in 1992-93 was an important factor contributing to increased productivity. The area planted to cotton increased from a five year average of 62.6 thousand ha for the period 1966-70 to 213 thousand ha for the period 1991-95. The increase in area was accompanied by on increase in average yields from 198.1 kg/ha to 543.7 kg/ha for the same periods, respectively. Thus the in- crease in production from an average of 12.4 thousand mt to an average of 115.8 thousand mt for these periods was largely accounted for by the increase in yield (Table 1.6), the average yield for the period 1991-95 being close to the world average (Table 1.3). In order to keep pace with in- creased production, the ginning capacity increased from 5,100 tons in 1960 to 272,700 tons of seed cotton in 1991. However, this expansion in ginning capacity has not kept pace with the increase in production. By 1992, the seed cotton production of 320 thousand mt exceeded this ginning capacity. The increase in production is largely attributable to the improvement in varie- ties from Allen 33-57 in 1960 which had a seed cotton yield of 225 kg/ha and produced 6,380 mt of seed cotton, to ISA 205 B, released in 1988/89 and yielding 1,330 kg/ha. Considerable sup- port for the breeding program has been received from the IRCT (now CIRAD CA). Prior to independence, the CFDT served all the francophone West African countries, providing services in extension, seed production, the procurement and distribution of inputs and marketing. Following independence, each country established its own public limited company. The CMDT continued to provide these services in Mali. The company is being restructured ac- cording to World Bank requirements in order to allocate a greater share of the lint value to the growers. This is still in a stage of transition. Mexico Cotton production in Mexico increased from a five year mean of 119 thousand mt for the period 1946-50 to 481.4 thousand mt for the period 1966-70. Since then, it has declined to only 86.4 thousand mt for the period 1991-95 (Table 1.1). Yields increased from a five year mean of 299.8 kg/ha for the period 1946-50 to 1030 kg/ha for the period 1986- 90. This was followed by a decline to 729.7 kg/ha for the period 1991-95 (Table 1.3). Thus the decline in production was almost entirely due to a decline in the harvested area which had increased from a five year mean of 396 thousand ha for the period 1946-50 to 927 thousand ha for the period 1956-60 but has been in steady decline since then, to 118.4 thousand ha for the period 1991-95 (Table 1.2). The harvested area was 353 thousand ha in 1981-82 and was still 251 thousand ha in 1991-92. Since then, there has been a sharp decline to 40 thousand ha in 1992-93 and only 35 thousand ha in 1993-94. Production was 323 thousand mt in 1981-82 and was still 187 thousand mt in 1991-92 but then it fell to 31 thousand mt in 1992-93 and 2 thousand mt in 1993-94. Exports declined from 173 thousand mt in 1981 to only 4 thousand mt in 1992. The main reason given for the decline in production is the rising costs without a com- mensurate increase in price. Subsidies, particularly on maize (corn) have also made other crops more profitable. Cotton production in Mexico is strongly influenced by its proximity to the USA and will come under even stronger influence now that NAFTA and GATT have been approved. The quality of Mexican cotton is too high for lower count yams produced for coarse fabrics such as denim so mills import lower quality Texas cotton. For this and logistical reasons, a great deal of the Mexican crop is left for export. 22 Cotton Production Prospects for the Next Decade Pakistan The area planted to cotton in Pakistan has increased from an average of 1.22 million ha for the period 1946-502 and increased steadily to 2.85 million ha for the period 1991-95 (Table 1.1). Lint production increased from an average 181.9 thousand mt to 1.86 million mt (1.07 mil- lion to 11 million bales of 170 kg) in the corresponding periods. The increase in production was largely due to the increase in yield, from an average of 193 to 653 kg/ha for the two periods, re- spectively. The increase in acreage arose from an improvement in the availability of water and mechanization while the yield increase arose from improved crop protection and varieties and higher use of fertilizers. The increase in GOT from 32 0 percent in the original varieties to 37.0- 40.0 percent in the variety S1 2, S1 4 and CIM70 made a significant contribution to the increase in production. Further progress has been hampered by the incidence of the leaf curl virus which caused a serious decline in the yield of the new variety because it proved to be susceptible to the disease. In order to overcome the problem, the old variety, CIM240 which was resistant, was re- issued in 1994. However, the older variety has a lower yield potential and GOT. The recommended practices to minimizes losses caused by the disease include manage- ment practices which will ensure vigorous growth to enable plants to outgrow the infection, con- trol of the whitefly vector, the use of systemic insecticidal seed dressings such as Imidacloprid (Gauchog) to control sucking pests, preventive sprays, weed control to eliminate wild alternative host plants and avoidance of alternative host crops such as okra and cowpeas in proximity to cotton, roguing of diseased plants and crop rotations. Host plant resistance is undoubtedly the prime approach to control of CLCV and this could be aided by biotechnology to develop resis- tant transgenic plants, provided an appropriate source of resistance is available. The quality of cotton has made steady progress. The staple length has increased from 22.2 to 23.8mm for the early varieties to 27.0 to 28.6mm for the more recent varieties. Very lit- tle cotton is less than 27.0mm and a staple length of 27.8 to 28.6mm is common. Tanzania Tanzanian cotton production peaked during the period 1971-75 when it was 71,200 mt. During the 1980s, it declined to only 46,800 mt in 1981-85 but then began to improve to average 71,800 mt. Yields peaked at 266 kg/ha in 1966-70 and then declined to only 138 kg/ha in 1981- 85. There has been a slight recovery to 197 kg/ha for the period 1991-95. The main reasons for the decline in production during the 1980s was a shortage of funding for the maintenance of gin- neries, a decline in road conditions and general lack of transport to move cotton to the ports and an inability to provide adequate working capital to pay farmers for their produce at the time of delivery. This resulted in a serious backlog in deliveries of seed cotton. The situation was exac- erbated by low prices in the mid 1980s which prevented the country from maintaining the infra- structure necessary to handle and gin the crop. The Government of the Netherlands provided aid during the 1980s to restore the transportation system and to rehabilitate the ginning sector. Ef- forts to restore production during the 1990s have been partially successful but there are serious problems with seed supply and marketing. Privatization of marketing has initially had serious repercussions. Cotton has been moved across variety demarcation lines for ginning, leading to mixed varieties. Tanzanian cotton still gains a premium as roller ginned cotton but the premium for regularity and cleanliness previously enjoyed because it is a hand pick crop with a high de- 2 Separation from India occurred in Cotton: Its Origins and Areas of Production 23 gree of regularity has been lost. In 1993-94, problems arose because cotton was sold without keeping the TCLSB informed and contracts were made in good faith which could not be filled. Table 1.6 compares cotton production in the two African countries Mali and Tanzania. Mali has ongoing support in cotton research from CIRAD CA and in adaptive research, exten- sion, marketing and other services from the CMDT which also receives support from the CFDT. Since the demise of the CRC, cotton research in Tanzania has had periodic support from the FAO and from the ODA in the UK but the ongoing program has been handicapped by lack of funding and lack of maintenance of essential laboratory and field equipment. Extension is largely ineffective while the cooperative ginneries and the Lint Marketing Board have had seri- ous financial problems, leading to delays in procurement of the crop, often over several years and inadequate maintenance of ginning equipment. The impact of these differences between the two countries is reflected in the performance of the cotton sector over the past thirty years. Mali has shown steady progress in area planted, yield and production while Tanzania production, area and yield peaked in the 1970s at about the time of the demise of the CRC. All three, production, area and yield, declined during the 1980s but are showing some signs of recovery in the 1990s. The decline can be attributed to the lack of effective research and extension and to the general political and economic conditions which prevailed in the country Uzbekistan The area planted to cotton in Uzbekistan has declined steadily from a peak of 2.1 million ha in 1987 to 1.9 million in 1990, 1.7 million in 1991 and just over 1.66 million in 1992. The decline continued in 1993 and 1994 and the area is expected to stabilize at about 1.4 million ha. Reliable earlier data separating Uzbekistan from the other FSU republics are not available. Prior to the demise of the Soviet Union, cotton production in Uzbekistan was primarily for the Soviet and Eastern Block textile industries. In order to meet the demand, production ex- panded into marginal areas. Trade was almost entirely barter of cotton for food crops so food production was secondary to cotton. Since the demise of the Soviet Union, Uzbekistan needs to become more self sufficient for staple food products and needs to maintain cotton production through increased yields while eliminating marginal areas from production. This has resulted in the planned decline in the area planted to cotton. However, cotton yields have not shown the expected increase because of lack of inputs due to the shortage of foreign exchange. Table 1.1: Five Year Average Production of Cotton Lint in Metric Tonnes by Country from 1946 to 1995 M Tonnes 1946-50 1951-55 1956-60 1961-65 1966-70 1971-75 1976-80 1981-85 1986-90 1991-95 USA 2609.4 3068.6 2831.7 3240.1 2306.8 2580.9 2558.6 2590.0 2853.6 3670.2 Brazil 291.6 365.2 327.8 483.4 583.3 599.6 503.3 687.6 735.2 580.2 China 169.8 605.7 1258.5 1180.1 1794.1 2493.4 2183.4 4034.4 3974.1 4719.4 Egypt 311.4 362.5 387.2 445.2 480.1 493.6 419.9 457.6 357.7 328.2 India 543.6 681.7 830.2 1038.4 1056.0 1176.8 1235.9 1422.9 1841.5 2192.8 Pakistan 181.9 263.1 272.6 362.0 493.8 651.1 545.0 751.7 1376.8 1859.8 Mexico 118.7 288.8 440.2 477.3 481.4 376.9 289.1 269.4 211.6 86.4 Cent. Asia 519.9 1255.0 1491.5 1617.7 1995.7 2447.2 2627.1 2676.6 2668.1 2320.0 Other 570.1 985.0 1302.1 1823.8 2266.9 2700.9 2671.7 26785 3216.9 3361.2 Non USA 2707.0 4807.0 63101 74278 9151.2 10939.5 10475.3 12978.8 14381.9 15448.0 Total 5316.4 7875.6 9141.7 10667.9 11458.0 13520.4 13033.9 15568.8 17235.5 19118.2 Source: ICAC World Statistics October 1994 Table 1.2: Five Year Average Areas in Hectares Planted to Cotton by Country from 1946 to 1995. Hectares 1946-50 1951-55 1956-60 1961-65 1966-70 1971-75 1976-80 1981-85 1986-90 1991-95 USA 8603.7 9252.3 5914.3 6053.0 4240.0 4867.3 4712.2 4412.9 4064.4 4909.4 Brazil 1950.7 1875.9 1748.4 2225.9 2404.0 2402.1 1 952.1 2783.7 2446.0 1568.6 China 2347.0 5285.6 5902.4 4451.9 4743.3 4856.6 4678.5 5757.0 5005.9 5995.2 Egypt 552.9 741.5 752.2 735.5 711.7 651.7 D37.8 459.5 431.4 379.0 India 5139.8 6651.0 7968.6 7926.2 7816.6 7625.7 7675.0 7798.0 7243.3 7558.6 Pakistan 1224.8 1298.8 1412.6 1416.2 1702.4 1915.5 1906.3 2200.4 2508.8 2849.2 Mexico 395.9 820.8 927.0 821.9 686.2 470.0 314.3 292.0 205.4 118.4 Cent. Asia 1456.2 2385.4 2131.4 2371.1 2467.5 2774.7 3005. 1 3208.5 3414.0 2957.0 Other 4603.5 7128.0 7906.7 6807.0 7047.1 73600 69926 6443.9 6361.0 6510.4 Non USA 17670.9 26187.0 28749.3 26755.7 27578C8 28056.3 27061.7 28943.1 27615.9 27936.4 Total 26274.6 35439.3 34663.6 32808.8 318188 329236 317739 33356.0 316803 32845.8 Source: ICAC World Statistics October 1994 Table 1.3: Five Year Average Yield of Lint in Kg/Ha by Country from 1946 to 1995. Kg/Ha 1946-50 1951-55 1956-60 1961-65 1966-70 1971-75 1976-80 1981-85 1986-90 1991-95 USA 303.3 331.7 478.8 535.3 544.1 530.3 543.0 586.9 702.1 747.6 Brazil 149.5 194.7 187.5 217.1 242.6 249.6 257.8 247.0 300.6 369.9 China 72.4 114.6 213.2 265.1 378.2 513.4 466.7 700.8 793.9 787.2 Egypt 563.3 488.9 514.8 605.3 674.6 757.4 780.7 995.9 829.1 866.0 India 105.8 102.5 104.2 131.0 135.1 154.3 161.0 182.5 254.2 290.1 Pakistan 148.5 202.5 193.0 255.6 290.0 339.9 285.9 341.6 548.8 652.7 Mexico 299.8 351.8 474.8 580.7 701.5 801.9 919.8 922.6 1030.0 729.7 Cent. Asia 357.1 526.1 699.7 682.3 808.8 882.0 874.2 834.2 781.5 784.6 Other 123.8 138.2 164.7 267.9 321.7 367.0 382.1 415.7 505.7 516.3 Non USA 149.1 183.6 219.5 277.6 331.8 382.4 387.1 448.4 520.8 553.0 Total 199.6 222.2 263.7 325.2 360.1 404.2 410.2 466.7 544.0 582.1 Source: ICAC World Statistics October 1994 Table 1.4: Five Year Average Production of Cotton as a Percentage of the World Total %/ ofCrop 1946-50 1951-55 1956-60 1961-65 1966-70 1971-75 1976-80 1981-85 1986-90 1991-95 USA 49.76 38.96 30.98 30.37 20.13 19.39 19.63 16.64 16.56 19.20 Brazil 5.56 4.64 3.59 4.53 5.09 4.51 3.86 4.42 4.27 3.03 China 3.24 7.69 13.77 11.06 15.66 18.74 16.75 25.91 23.06 24.69 Egypt 5.94 4.60 4.24 4.17 4.19 3.71 3.22 2.94 2.08 1.72 India 10.37 8.66 9.08 9.73 9.22 8.84 9.48 9.14 10.68 11.47 Pakistan z 3.3s I' N I 4.9 4 Mexico 2.26 3.67 4.82 4.47 4.20 2.83 2.22 1.73 1.23 0.45 Cent.Asia 9.92 15.94 16.31 15.16 17.42 18.39 20.16 17.19 15.48 1214 Other 10.87 12.51 14.24 17.10 19.78 20.29 20.50 17.20 18.66 1758 Ia a 8U8C m|a4 a I a Ia I Total I 100.00 I 100.00 I 100.00 r100.00 l 100.00 10000 I 100.00 r 10000 100.00 l100. Source: ICAC World Statistics October 1994 0L Table 1.5: Five Year Average Area Planted to Cotton as a Percentage of the World Total %ofArea 1946-50 1951-55 1956-60 1961-65 1966-70 1971-75 1976-80 1981-85 1986-90 1991-95 USA 32.75 26.11 17.06 18.45 13.33 14.78 14.83 13.23 12.83 14.95 Brazil 7.42 5.29 5.04 6.78 7.56 7.30 6.14 8.35 7.72 4.78 China 8.93 14.91 17.03 13.57 14.91 14.75 14.72 17.26 15.80 18.25 Egypt 2.10 2.09 2.17 2.24 2.24 1.98 1.69 1.38 1.36 1.15 India 19.56 18.77 22.99 24.16 24.57 23.16 24.15 23.38 22.86 23.01 0 Pakistan 4.66 3.66 4.08 4.32 5.35 5.82 6.00 6.60 7.92 8.67 Mexico 1 .51 2.32 2.67 2.51 2.16 1.43 0.99 0.88 0.65 0.36 c Cent. Asia 5.54 6.73 6.15 7.23 7.75 8.43 9.46 9.62 1.78 9.00 Other 17.52 20.11 22.81 20.75 22.15 22.35 22.01 19.32 20.08 19.82 z Non USA 67.25 73.89 82.94 81.55 86.67 85.22 85.17 86.77 87.17 85.05 Total 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 e Source: ICAC World Statistics October 1994 Cotton, Its Origins and Areas of Production 27 Table 1.6: Production, Hectareage and Yield for Mali and Tanzania - Five Year Averages from 1946 to 1995 (Lint Data) Year '000 Metric Tonnes '000 Hectares Yield Kg/Ha Mali Tanzania Mali Tanzania Mali Tanzania 1946-50 _ 8.0 64.6 _ 123.8 1951-55 12.0 80.8 - 148.5 1956-60 29.0 147.2 197.0 1961-65 6.0 41.0 N/A 196.0 N/A 209.2 1966-70 12.4 68.2 62.6 256.6 198.1 265.8 1971-75 22.2 71.2 71.6 283.0 310.1 251.6 1976-80 46.0 55.2 105.4 367.8 436.4 150.1 1981-85 47.8 46.8 100.4 339.6 476.1 137.8 1986-90 83.4 58.4 165.2 386.0 504.8 151.3 1991-95 115.8 71.8 213.0 363.8 543.7 197.4 Source: ICAC World Statistics October 1994 I Annex 1.1 Cotton Production and Area in the Study Countries 29 Annex to Chapter I Cotton: Its Origins and Areas of Production 31 Figure A.1.1: Brazil - Total Cotton Production Figure A.1.4: Egypt - Total Cotton Production ('OOOMT) ('OOOMT) 1000 _600 900 - - - - - -- - - -I 8~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~00 -- -- - -- - - - - - - -o - 700 600 _________ ___ ______ ____-- 500' ,_____________________ \ ,- -300-_-_-__ -- 400 --- ____________ - -2 00 _____________._ 4200 - -- -- -- -- ------ - ---- -- -- ---- - O I ' I ! i . O I I I I 0 1980/81 1983/84 1986/87 1989190 1992193 1980/81 1983/84 1986/87 1989/90 1992/93 Source: ICAC Source: ICAC Figure A.1.2: China - Total vs. Xinjiang Figure A.1.5: China - Production in Central Production ('OOOMT) Provinces ('000 MT) 7000 t 80T-- 6000 _- - -------------______________________ -100 - A - 1400 4000 - -- -- 1200 4000 -_00 3000 -_-__-__-__-__-__-__-__-__-__-__-__-__-_ 800 Jins 2000 - - - - _ - - - - 6001 1000 - _ __ ____ - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ------400 Hubei o % I I ! i 200 1 Anhui V 1 CD et- 00 CY) N 0 V 10 O 4- -I I - -- - - CV) v U) ID Y.U CD ) O 6) to 6 I- ) m c O C t o co~'U CD ODO co co co * CD P.). c w c OD C* 0) (nC~ ( U U) U) U) U) U) U) U) 6) 6) 6) 6) 6) 6~~F) 6) as a) co 6) 6)'-,6 6 6) 6) 6) 6) 6) 6) 6) 6) 6) 6) 6) 6) 6)~~O ODU CD co M) 6) ) 4-Xinjiang AII China - - % Source: ICAC and China State Statistical Bureau. Source: China State Statistical Bureau 1993/94 and 1994/95 data are estimates Figure A.1.3: China - Production in the Yellow Figure A.1.6: India - Total Cotton Production River Region ('000 MT) ('OOOMT) 4000 I200 2500 2000 1500 = 500 - ____ __ -_ ---~~ - -- -- - 100 Sha Ii , 500 *d In) CD N- co 6) 0 c C-) *t LO 6) lU)co - <) Q S F)" > d ) CD 1 co OD o) N > O8 I 8 II 6) 6) 6 6) 4 o O ° 1980/81 1983/84 1988/87 1989190 1992/93 Source: China State Statistical Bureau !993/94 and 1994/95 data Source: ICAC are estimates 32 Cotton Production Prospects for the Next Decade Figure A.1.7: Mali - Total Cotton Production Figure A.1.10: Tanzania - Total Cotton ('OOOMT) Production ('OOOMT) 140 120 120 /< 100 - - - - - - - - - - - --0 Figur80 M C Production- - - - - - - -C ot 83 0 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - _0 - - - - - - - - - - - -\ 400 - 18~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~00- 20 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -, 50 0 : I I I I i _N n st U) ID s 0) 0)0 N _ ~ N) n ot 10 _l a, _) _ _ 1 19S0181 1983184 1986187 1989190 1992193 Source: ICAC Source: ICAC Figure A.1.8: Mexico - Total Cotton Production Figure A.1.ll: Uzbekistan - Tohl Cotton ('OOOMT) 400 ::1800 3504 -_ _ __ _ _ - ---- ----- ---- 1600' 300 - - - -- - - -- - -- -- -- -- - -- -2 - -~: 200-~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~~~~~~~~~~~10 - -> - - -___ -0 - -__ -- - __ _-_- 2500 - - _ Sou ce: - - - -A - - - - - - - - - - - - 0 - - - 0 - 400 Fiur A..9 -Pa-ki-st--an- - -oa Coto -Production 2500~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~O -0 - 0~~ A 1 000NIT 2500 5 0 - - -- - - - - - - - - - - - LSource: ICAC Annex to Chapter I Cotton: Its Origins and Areas of Production 33 Figure A.1.12: Brazil - Total Cotton Area Figure A.1.15: Egypt - Total Cotton Area ('000 Ha) ('000 Ha) 4000 600 3500- -___ , -_ - ____- __- __- __- __-_ - - 3000 -__\ - ________ 500* - - -_____________- ____- 2500-- \- 'S-- -- -- -- -- -- --- 400 __ ___ 2000 -- _________ - - _____ ------------300- 1500 -- -_ - -0 __________________________ 100 DOO ___ -_ -__--____-__---__--____- --- -- 200 -- ______ -____ -_ 500 ____________________________-100-__________________________ cm N) ¢O t9 00 0 0DO N cn 3 IIIIII o D ~2 co co 0) *o s0 0) 0D8 i~& co 6 6 X 1980)81 1983/84 1986/87 1989/90 1992/93 Source: ICAC Source: ICAC Figure A.1.13: China - Total Cotton Area Figure A.1.16: China - Planted vs. Harvested ('000 Ha) Area in Hebei & Shandong in 1993/94 ('000 Ha) 7000 1200 5000 800 4000 -__ -_ _ - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ----800 3000 ______ ___ - -____ ------ ------ 0 400- - 2000 - _ _ _ _ _ _ _ - - - - - - - -200 - 1000 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - _ I 0 2 ffi W § : | § § S S Bj R W ~ [ru ted *Harvesied …_ _ _ _ _ 2 g g g g Source: China State Statistical Bureau. 1993/94 and 1994/95 Source: ICAC data are estimates. Figure A.1.14: China - Cotton Area in the Figure A.1.17: China - Cotton Area in Xinjiang Yangtze River Region ('000 Ha) ('000 Ha) 800 . 1600 700 - - - - - - - - - - 1400 600 - - - - - - - - - 1200 500 - - - - - - - _. 1000 800 400 -- - - _____ 400 H2bs 300 4 - - - - - - - ____ 400 200 -- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - _ 200 0~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~0 0~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ …- - - ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~1982/83 1985/SB 1988/89 1991/92 1994/9 Source: China State Statistical Bureau. 1993/94 and 1994/95 Source: China State Statistical Bureau. 1993/94 and 1994/95 data are estimates. data arm estimates. 34 Cotton Production Prospects for the Next Decade Figure A.1.18: India - Total Cotton Area Figure A.1.21: Pakistan - Total Cotton Area ('000 Ha) ('000 Ha) 8200 3000 BOOO - - - ----- 20- ______ - 8000~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~50 7800' _ - - .- 7600- ------------- 2000 - ____________________________ 7400 - - - - -- - - - - - - 7200 - - - - - - - ____ 6800 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 6600 - - ___________500__________________ 6400 -___________________-_-___- - - - - - - - - -,-,- - - 6200 i i I I I 1980/81 198384 1986/87 1989/90 1992/93 1980/81 1983/84 1986/87 1989/90 1992/93 Source: ICAC Source: ICAC Figure A.1.19: Mali - Total Cotton Area Figure A.1.22: Tanzania - Total Cotton Area ('000 Ha) ('000 Ha) 250 -450 -- 250~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~0 - - - - - - 200 __ - -_ -__ - -2 - - -__ - - -- - 50 ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~~~~~~~~5 150 ____ __ - - _________ __. 300 --- _____________ -- r----0 v : ~~~~~~~~~~~250 __________ - _---__ --- -- --- --- ioo ---- - -_-_---______---------- 200 ---------------000 0 0 0 0 0 - -- - bO ------ -__ -___-_____--__--_---_--- - s o - - - - - - - -- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -0 - - o I l I l I I o I" "II I 2 2 i 8 ES 2 E °> 8 - > oM i! - Y o q i l l g? i2 g2 1 ID Source: ICAC Source: ICAC Figure A.1.20: Mexico - Total Cotton Area Figure A.1.23: Uzbekistan -Total Cotton Area ('000 Ha) ('000 Ha) 400 2500 3501 --I - - - _ 2000 _ _ _ 300--------i 200 -_---- 150 - - - - - - _____________-__-_- 100 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - \_ - 500 -- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - _ 50 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 0 4 i -1980/81 1983/84 1986/87 1989/90 1992/93 1980/81 1983/84 1986/87 1989/90 1992/93 Source: ICAC Source: ICAC Annex to Chapter I Cotton: Its Origins and Areas of Production 35 Figure A.1.24: World Cotton Production and Hectarage by Country as Percent of the Total Five Year Averages from 1946 to 1995 (A) Production Percent 1946 to 1950 (B) Hectarage Percent 1946 to 1950 Other Other Cent. 11% 18% Asia Cent. U.S.A. 10% Asia 32% Mexico | 6% 2% U.S.A. Mexico Pakistan *5%2 3% _> ~~~~~~~~~~50% 2%_ Pakistan India 5% 10% a i Egypt < - India razil 6% China Brazil 19% EgyPt China 3% 5% 2% 9% (C) Production Percent 1961 to 1965 (D) Hectarage Percent 1961 to 1965 17% U.S.A. Other U.S.A. 17 31% 21% t 18% Cent. Cent. Brazil CAsia . Asia 7% 15% 7% - Mexico W Mexico Brazil 3% China 4% B5% Pakistan 14% Pakistan China 4% India Egypt 3% India Egypt 11% 24% 2% 10% 4% (E) Production Percent 1976 to 1980 (F) Hectarage Percent 1976 to 1980 Other U.S.A. Other U.S.A. 20% 20% 22% 15% Brazil 6% Brazil 4% ~~~~~~Cent. - As~~~~~~~~~~~9Ia China Cent. 0 15% Asia P I Mexico 20% . China 1% 17% Pakistan Egypt 2%e akita Egypt 6% nda2% 2 PaitnIndia 24%i 4% 9% 3 4 36 Cotton Production Prospects for the Next Decade (G) Production Percent 1991 to 1995 (H) Hectarage Percent 1991 to 1995 Other U.S.A. Other U.S.A. 18% 1% 20% 15% Brazil Cent. Brazil Cent. 5% Asia p h i n a3% Asia 10% 25% 9% Egypt India EgyPt India 1% 11% 2% 23% CHAPTER 2 TECHNICAL ISSUES The Cotton Fiber The basic fiber type of cotton is determined by the species but considerable genetic variation exists in quality among varieties within species. Varieties of cotton fall into distinctive groups based on fiber properties, within the limitations imposed by the species. However, the environment influences the final quality of cotton lint. Cool night temperatures below 20° C, even as early as flower bud initiation, can have an adverse effect on fiber maturity. Any factor that causes early defoliation or reduces the efficiency of the leaves such as a severe red spider mite infestation or drought will reduce fiber quality. The effect of adverse environmental condi- tions is far more pronounced on maturity than on other fiber characteristics. The primary components of yield consist of the number of plants per unit area, the aver- age number of bolls per plant and seeds per boll and the average weight of fiber per seed. The components of fiber weight per seed consist of the average number of fibers per seed, the aver- age fiber length and the average fiber weight per unit of length. However, the weight of fiber per unit of length is determined by fiber fineness and maturity and is thus a component of quality. Thus fiber length, fineness and maturity, are primary components of quality and secondary com- ponents of yield. This introduces correlations between components of yield and quality which can hamper selection for any specific improvements in yield, lint percentage or fiber characteris- tics. Furthermore, any adverse conditions that affect fiber development influence both quality and yield. Fiber strength is not a component of yield but is influenced by fiber structure and maturity and is, therefore, indirectly correlated with yield (Kerr, 1966, 1967). The main measurements of cotton fiber are length, length uniformity, micronaire and strength. Length and perimeter are negatively correlated and genetically controlled while seed and fiber wall development are influenced more by the environment. The micronaire value combines fineness and maturity but because of the negative correlation between fineness and length, within a variety, the micronaire indicates maturity. Maturity and mechanical, insect or disease damage, influence strength. Thus provided fiber is undamaged, micronaire also indicates strength. These variety specific relationships have been used in cotton classing in Central Asia. Changing Demand in the Textile Industry Major changes have occurred in textile technology over the past forty years, leading to changes in the emphasis on fiber quality requirements. Operating speeds have increased many fold and the number of check points where adjustments can be made to correct raw material de- ficiencies have been reduced. Economic pressures to contain rising manufacturing costs have driven the need for faster, more automated systems in the textile industry. The objective is to manufacture yarns with different diameters and weight per unit length for various end uses (Exhibit 2.1). The actual processes of yam manufacture - blending, cleaning, carding, drawing, roving and spinning - have changed little over the past 100 years but there have been major changes in processing speed, control technology and package size (Perkins et al., 1984). For ex- 37 38 Cotton Production Prospects for the Next Decade ample, the cards in older systems were independent of other operations and had a capacity of about 5.4 kg. per hour while in modem systems, blending, cleaning and carding have been com- bined into a single, continuous process and carding rates have increased to 45 kg. per hour or more. Modem machinery can produce higher quality yam than older systems from similar raw cotton but the higher speeds and changes in spinning technology have changed the emphasis on different fiber parameters and have placed greater demands on the quality of the raw material. Spinning is the final, most costly part of the conversion of fiber into yam so it is logical that the main changes in yam production have been in spinning systems. Two principles of open-end spinning, rotor spinning and friction spinning, were introduced in the early 1970s. This was followed by air-jet spinning and wrap spinning. Cotton fibers are short and require co- hesive forces to hold the structure together. In ring and open end spinning systems, cohesion is provided by twisting the yam structure while yam is bound together by,its own fibers in air-jet spinning and by a continuous filament of man-made fiber in wrap spinning (Price, 1986). Ring spinning is the most versatile system in commercial use and is capable of produc- ing high quality yarns which vary from coarse yams for use in products such as household goods and canvas to the finest yams for use in speciality apparel fabrics, from cottons differing widely in fiber properties (Exhibit 2.1). However, the productivity of ring spindles is limited by the spindle and traveler speed. With this system, the yam package is rotated through a full revolu- tion to introduce each tum of twist. Rapid rotation consumes a great deal of power and this lim- its spindle speeds to a maximum of 25,000 rpm (Ishida, 1991). However, with the aid of low machine costs and automation, ring spinning remains the most viable means of producing fine count yams and is the most efficient way of converting fiber into yarn. Rotor spinning systems spin clean drawing sliver, bypassing the roving stage. Fibers are teased from the beard offered by the end of the drawing sliver and hurled into an airstream which carries them into the inside of a rapidly spinning cup or rotor where they are distributed in a groove round the perimeter by air currents and centrifugal force. The layers of fiber are continu- ously twisted together and withdrawn in the form of yarn from the center of the rotor (Perkins, 1984; Price, 1984). Each twist in the yarn requires a full rotation of the rotor and modem ma- chines operate at up to 130,000 rpm. Rotor spinning is expected to account for over fifty percent of all spinning in the USA by the year 2000 with ring spinning accounting for 40 percent and the other ten percent distributed between friction, airjet and wrap spinning (Deussen 1984). The change to rotor spinning has had an important impact on the consumption of cotton by short sta- ple spinners. Otto (1991) estimated that between 1981 and 1989, cotton's share of the short sta- ple market for both ring and rotor spinning increased from 71 to 75 percent and that 75 percent of the cotton consumed by this sector is used for 100 percent cotton yarn. The development of new spinning technology has changed the emphasis on different fi- ber parameters. Strength and fineness are important in all yam production systems but more so in the new spinning processes than in ring spinning. Cleanliness has taken on increased impor- tance both because of its effect on yarn quality and spinning efficiency and because of the abra- sive effect of particulate foreign matter on high speed rollers. Little is known about surface fric- tion in cotton but it has importance in air-jet and friction spinning. In order to operate these new systems efficiently and to produce quality yam, spinners require greater uniformity, less short fiber and higher strength in finer, more mature cotton. Price (1986) pointed out the clear advan- tages of using finer, mature fibers with improved strength, length and length uniformity since this would give a higher maximum yarn strength with lower twist and also equivalent yam strength with lower twist, leading to higher productivity. Deussen (1993) pointed out that the Technical Issues 39 capabilities of the machines often surpass those of the available raw material but Gannaway et al (1995) (Tables 2.5 and 2.6) demonstrated that it is possible to produce varieties with fiber prop- erties that could be spun beyond the limits of present day rotor spinning frames. Meeting Spinning Mill Requirements Cotton is an international agricultural commodity, the supply and quality of which are subject to the influence of the environment. The price is subject to the influence of world supply and demand, frequently making it subject to speculation. The real and most quantifiable users of cotton are the spinners, cotton being the primary raw material of the spinning industry. Thus by producing the type of cotton that the spinners want, higher prices can be expected and producers will have no difficulty in marketing their product (Shigeaki Izawa'; 1994). This has been dem- onstrated over the past thirty years by Zimbabwe which has developed a high reputation for pro- ducing long runs of very regular cotton, leading to a steady market. Box 2.1 summarizes the steps taken to achieve this. Box 2.1: The Zimbabwe Cotton Industry Varieties The Cotton Research Institute, Kadoma breeds all cotton va- rieties. Breeding program uninterrupted for over sixty years. Annual release of Breeder Seed. Essentially single variety country with clearly demarcated areas and designated ginner- ies for additional varieties. Seed Increase Seed multiplication on a three-year cycle and managed by Cotton Marketing Board (CMB) with supervision by Ministry of Agriculture Seed Services. No seed in cultivation more than three years. Seed Cotton Price Base price declared in advance, based on continued reviews against the Liverpool 'A' Index during the delivery period from March to September. Seed Cotton Grades Established by consensus between growers and the CMB, based on color, stain and trash. Lower grades based on ex- pected reduction in lint grade due to color/trash. Farm Packaging Seed cotton is packed in jute wool packs with cotton twine ties, eliminating a possible source of contamination. Quality Control Farmers hand pick the seed cotton and payment is based on the seed cotton grade. It is then classified according to fiber properties and separated into stacks of similar cotton. Stacks are ginned separately, ensuring long runs of regular cotton. Bale Wrapping Bales of lint are wrapped in cotton fabric, eliminating a sec- ond possible source of contamination and tied with wire ties. The guiding principles for spinners in purchasing cotton are quality, delivery and price in that order. They desire cotton with high spinnability, delivered as contracted and marketed at a reasonable price. It is often argued that the sole concern of spinners is price and that they do not pay for quality. This argument may hold true for speculators but not for spinners (Ibid. 1994). In the past, producers that produced long runs of regular running cotton such as California, IChairman of the Raw Cotton Committee, Japan Spinners' Association 40 Conon Production Prospects for the Next Decade Greece, Tanzania, Uganda and Zimbabwe have enjoyed price premiums. This has entailed sin- gle variety areas and single variety ginneries to prevent mixed bales and reliability of supply which usually involves some form of risk management. Regularity can be improved still further through pre-ginning selection on the basis of fiber properties. This applies particularly to small- holder cotton which is delivered to the ginnery in small quantities. Free choice of varieties and unregulated marketing may not be in the best interests of the textile industry. The development of High Volume Table 2.1: Summary of 1993 Cotton Production Instrument Testing equipment in the USA (thousands) has been necessitated by the fact that in Metric Tonnes Bales (217kg) most parts of the cottonbelt, cotton loses China 4,508 20,774 varietal identity when it enters the ginnery. USA 3,531 16,271 It is then necessary to test every bale and to India 2,329 10,732 use sophisticated equipment and computer Pakistan 1,559 7,184 software to select bales with similar fiber Uzbekistan 1,296 5,972 characteristics to make up marketable lots. Urkey 574 2,972 However, the volume of production pro- Turkey 574 2,645 vides considerable latitude in this process, a 13 Countries 100 to 500 460 to 2,304 luxury that smaller producers do not enjoy 51 Countries > 100 > 461 (Table 2.1). Note: the top five producers Total 17,970 82,811 represent less than 10 percent of cotton producing countries but account for nearly 75 percent of the total cotton production. IIVI testing is uni- Box 2.2: Fiber Quality and Spinning Potential versally accepted by the in- -length length of yarn spanned by each fiber; deter- dustry and is becoming a mined by variety. requirement, enabling cotton length uniformity yarn uniformity and spinning efficiency; in- to be marketed more directly fluenced by mechanical handling. on textile mill needs rather short fiber yarn appearance and spinning efficiency; than the traditional grade, created during ginning and cleaning. staple and micronaire. This *fineness number of fibers in cross section of yarn; has contributed to the devel- closely correlated with fiber length and de- opment and acceptance of termined by variety. high quality varieties. 2 regularity and dye ability; strongly in- Nonetheless, HVI lines are mtuened by envion ent. expensive and difficult to flene by evrn nt expensaiv and daliffilte t- strength more important in open-end and air jet spun maintain and calibrate. Ex- perienced buyers can antici- yarn; determined by variety but influenced by pate the performance of cot- maturity and fiber damage ton through knowledge of the variety and area of production so the merit of introducing HVI testing into minor cotton producing countries would be questionable if the principle of single variety areas and ginneries with pre-ginning quality control, supported by efficient variety im- provement, maintenance and seed multiplication, is followed. The variety determines fiber quality. Fiber length, length uniformity, fineness, maturity and strength determine the spinning potential of cotton from a particular variety, fiber length 2 Neps are small tangles of immature cotton which show up in dyed fabric as white spots. Seed coat neps consist of small pieces of seed coat with fibers attached that show up as black specks in the fabric. Technical Issues 41 being the primary factor that determines the potential end use. The impact of the different com- ponents of quality on spinning potential are summarized in Box 2.2. However, cotton is a natu- ral fiber and so variability exists between and within bales, even when the cotton comes from the same variety in the same field and from the same pick. This variability influences yarn proper- ties and spinning efficiency which are directly related to the quality of the cotton being proc- essed. Physical measurements and classification of the cotton are necessary to control variations in processing efficiency and yarn quality. However, a number of bales, varying from five to as many as fifty, are used to make up a specific mill "mix" or laydown and it would be impractical to attempt to obtain bales which are identical in all respects. Commonly, therefore, a number of bales with similar fiber characteristics are blended together in order to keep the average and range of properties constant and to ensure that yarn characteristics are maintained and repeated over a period of time. This calls long runs of regular running cotton to ensure extended periods of trouble free operation and the production of the uniform, regular yarn required by the fabric manufacturers. This cannot be achieved if bales are excessively variable as a result of random mixing of cotton from varieties that differ widely in fiber properties (Table 2.3). Clearly, single variety production areas served by single variety ginneries can best achieve this end but if it nec- essary to grow more than one variety, at the very least, they must have similar fiber properties. With the exception of the San Joaquin Valley (SJV) in California, variety development and seed distribution in the USA is handled by private companies, giving most growers a wide choice of varieties. As a single variety area, the SJV built its reputation as a producer of quality cotton. Following the introduction of Breeder's Rights Legislation in the 1960s, private seed companies were given access to this market but with the proviso that in order to maintain the reputation of the area for quality cotton, all registered varieties must meet fiber quality standards. The one variety cotton law in California has been criticized on economic grounds (Constantine et al, 1994). However, this criticism does not take sufficient account of the historical benefits of the legislation to the industry as a whole. Considerable advances have been made in improving yield and ginning outturn (GOT) of SJV cotton since the private breeders entered the market. This has been attained without loss of the distinctive spinning characteristics of SJV cotton which are unique among US cottons and have also been improved over the past 50 years (Table 2.1 and 2.2) (Bragg et al. 1995). SJV cotton is classified as 28.6mm (I 1/8") compared to 27.8mm (I 3/32") for other California cot- tons, fitting it ideally into the spinning of fine (40s to 60s) count, combed yams for high quality cotton fabrics (Exhibit 2.1). Similar progress is being made in developing new Pima varieties for California but again, without losing sight of the importance of quality (Table 2.2 and 2.3). The data in Tables 2.2 and 2.3 are averages of data from surveys of quality of US cottons from different regions over the period 1990 to 1993. Exhibit 2.1 demonstrates the end uses of cotton from the different types listed in these tables. All varieties were not represented in all years but the data are indicative of varietal differences and of progress being made in variety im- provement. Thus HS 26 succeeded Paymaster 145 and shows significant improvements in fiber length and strength. HS 26 has become the variety of choice in under irrigation in the Texas Plains because these improvements render it highly suited to the production of Denim. Simi- larly, Acala Maxxa and Acala Royale show major improvements in strength over Acala SJ2 and GC 510. The data on Acala Royale also show significant improvements in fineness without any change in Micronaire, reflecting an increase in maturity, thus coming closer to the spinner needs for finer, more mature cotton. Clearly mixing of varieties between types would introduce an un- acceptable level of variability but even mixing of varieties within types such as Acala SJ2 with 42 Cotton Production Prospects for the Next Decade Acala Maxxa or Acala Royale or of Paymaster 145 with HS 26 would increase variability sig- nificantly and could have a negative impact on spinning efficiency unless the varieties concemed have similar fiber properties. Table 2.2: Yarn Strength of Major US Varieties with Different Spinning Systems and Yarn Counts Variety Carded Ring Spun I Carded Rotor Spun | Combed Ring Spun 22s 36s 50s 10s I 22s I 30s 22s 36s S5s Short Staple Texas/Oklahoma PM 145 1885 1679 1497 2123 1812 1648 PM 200 2511 2302 2128 2435 2092 1891 HS 26 2285 2041 1840 2346 1970 1768 Medium Staple South East and Delta DPL 20 2112 1927 1731 2178 1847 1659 DPL 50 2129 1925 1696 2196 1830 1643 DES 119 2252 2033 1768 2356 1954 1764 Sv 453 2265 2001 1851 2206 1822 1627 1 DPL 51 2333 2177 1936 2265 1956 1696 DPL 5415 2192 1968 1695 2246 1871 1655 _ DPL 90 2307 2115 1847 2399 2057 1838 Long Staple West (SJV) Acala SJ2 2684 2441 2268 2608 2199 1983 3072 2853 2660 GC 510 2961 2786 2630 2731 2407 2190 3357 3157 3056 Acala Maxxa 3057 2787 2781 2376 2113 3416 3140 2999 Acala Royale 2990 2778 2638 2712 2394 2142 3286 3167 2953 Extra Long Staple Pima S-6 1 l 3977 3656 I 3454 Pima S-7 I T_T__I _I4469 3995 3861 Source: USDA ARS Cotton Division Fiber and Processing Tests Survey of Leading Varieties 1990-93 Table 2.3: Fiber Properties of Major US Commercial Cotton Varieties Variety UHM | Uniformity | Micronaire Fineness | Maturity Strength ins. Index % Value Millitex Ratio gm/tex X_________ 0Short Staple Texas/Oklahoma PM 145 0.99 79.7 3.7 ! 161.3 J 0.860 23.9 PM200 1.08 81.4 3.7 1 145.7 1 0.879 J 28.5 HS 26 1.03 J 81.4 | 4.1 | 175.2 | 0.899 1 28.9 Medium Staple South East and Delta | DPL20 | 1.10 82.3 4.1 173.6 0.907 26.8 DPL50 | 1.10 82.1 4.4 179.9 0.957 26.7 DES 119 1.10 83.6 4.5 183.0 0.980 26.9 Sv453 1.12 81.8 4.4 171.0 1.026 29.0 DPL 51 1.13 82.8 4.5 183.5 0.971 28.8 DPL 5415 | 1.12 81.5 | 4.3 176.4 0.956 30.0 DPL 90 | 1.09 82.0 1 4.4 174.1 0.980 29.2 Long Staple West (SJV) l AcalaSJ2 1.14 83.1 4.2 177.5 0.917 30.2 GC sio 1.13 83.5 4.2 _ 163.9 1.000 29.9 Acala Maxxa 1.14 82.9 4.2 166.0 0.955 32.2 AcalaRoyale 1.13 83.1 4.3 149.9 1.097 32.9 Extra Long Staple l PimnaS-6 1 1.31 1 86.3 4.2 160.2 0.982 37.1 Pima S-7 1.34 86.9 [ 4.0 137.4 1.102 1 44.5 Source: USDA ARS Cotton Division Fiber and Processing Tests Survey of Leading Varieties 1990-93 Technical Issues 43 Changing production between types according to price signals would be impractical be- cause the price signals are driven by the supply and demand within the type. This could lead to periodic changes, precluding the development of markets based on a reputation for producing a particular quality of cotton. Furthermore, the cotton type is often dictated by the environment and plant breeders need clear-cut objectives if they are to produce improved varieties. Exhibit 2.1: Relative Values & Use of the Four New World Cotton Types (Prices Based on 1988 US Estimates) 1. Pima/Egyptian - $1.20 Extra Long Staple Sewing Thread $6.00 2. Acala $0.82 Fine Shirting Long Staple Fine Knits Shirting L Fine Sheeting (Percale) 3. Delta MS Upland _ $0.70 Broadcloth $3.10 Medium Staple Print Cloth 4' Sheeting (Combed) $2.25 Corduroy 4. Stripper $0.65 Knitwear Short Staple Coarse Print Cloth $2.00 Coarse Knitwear Socks Sheeting (Muslin) Light Duck Light Canvas $1.80 Drill, Denim Heavy Canvas Source: Crill R. (1990): These data utilize 1988 price estimates. Prices for different quality cottons have changed as a result of supply and demand but the end uses of different fiber types remain valid and the relative values of lint and the yarn they produce are also valid, subject to variation caused by supply and demand. California currently grows nearly 500,000 ha of cotton, half of which is controlled by 230 of the State's 2,400 growers. The annual production is nearly 650,000 mt (nearly 3,000,000 bales) which is similar to the production of Turkey or Brazil, the sixth and seventh largest pro- ducers in the world. One company controls nearly 10 percent of this total, placing it about 27th among the world cotton producing countries. With this scale of production, most growers would have a limited number of varieties and would be likely to plant only one major variety with other varieties included to fit into specific environmental niches such as areas with wilt infestation or a high level of salinity. This is reflected in the distribution of varieties in the San Joaquin Valley where 77 percent of the cotton area is planted to Acala Maxxa, a product of the California Planting Cotton Seed Distributors (CPCSD), with other varieties that are suited to less than ideal conditions or with specific characteristics such as nematode tolerance and/or Verticillium wilt resistance that fit them into specific niches, occupying the other 23 percent. This cannot be compared with the majority of developing countries which have rela- tively small production, mainly in the hands of smallholders. These countries must decide which cotton type they should produce, a decision that is often dictated by the environment and then 44 Cotton Production Prospects for the Next Decade find a market niche by proving their reliability through regularity of supply and consistency of quality within the specific cotton type. In order to achieve this, they need to produce the highest possible quality within this type and to keep variability to a minimum. This often calls for a trade off between quality and yield. Quality Improvements and Variety Development The requirements for developing high quality varieties include (Meredith, 1991): 1. Well defined breeding objectives; 2. Adequate genetic variability; 3. Appropriate instrumentation and evaluation methods; 4. Price incentives; 5. Time: 10 years from start to finish. Breeding objectives usually include Box 2.3: Consequences of Selection for yield, lint percent and quality. Earliness Individual Criteria and host plant resistance are often included. Disease resistance and salt and drought toler- Selection for: Consequence: ance depend on the local requirements. yield alone decreased fiber length; increased coarseness. Several programs aim at improving lint percent alone increased coarseness; the value of cottonseed by including decreased length; glandlessness as a selection criterion. The decreased seed weight. seed of glandless or gossypol free cotton fiber length alone decreased yield; produces food quality protein with minimal decreased lint percent. processing but glandless plants are more sus- fiber strength alone decreased yield; ceptible to insect pests. Efforts are being decreased lint percent. made to develop varieties with normal, Concomitant Selection: Consequence: glanded vegetation but glandless seed yield and quality slow improvement in through inter-specific hybridization. both. Increasing interest is being shown in naturally colored cotton. Cotton varieties with various shades of brown and green were available from genetic stocks and have been improved for commercial production but so far, this is a fairly small market. Progress in variety improvement is conditioned by the relationships between the compo- nents of yield and quality and the correlations between length and fineness and between strength and yield (Box 2.3). Recently developed breeding lines in Texas have excellent quality but they are unsuitable for production because of low yields (Table 2.4). One line in particular which has fine, mature fiber with excellent spinnability is so loose in the open boll that it is almost impos- sible to pick before it falls to the ground (Gannaway et al, 1995). Despite these difficulties, cot- ton quality has improved steadily as a result of prolonged, concomitant selection for yield and quality. Improved instrumentation to measure fiber properties and spinning performance has contributed to this improvement and to greater efforts by plant breeders, growers and ginners to respond to textile industry quality needs. Technical Issues 45 Biotechnology Genetically engineered cotton is likely to play an increasingly important role in cotton improvement over the next decade. However, the implementation of this technology in develop- ing countries faces a number of technical, economic and legal problems. The International Service for the Acquisition of Agri-biotech Applications (ISAAA) was incorporated in 1991 with the objective of facilitating the acquisition and transfer of agricultural biotechnology to developing countries in order to assist them in the implementation of a more sustainable agriculture that will provide more food and a safer environment. Their projects con- centrate on non-commercial food crops grown by poor farmers, crops such as cotton which are not covered by CGIARIIARCs programs and tropical tree species that have an impact on biodi- versity in natural and managed forests, concentrating on near-term applications that have had proven success in developed countries (Altman and James, 1993). Technical Implications The main lines of research being followed are the development of insect and/or herbicide resistant, genetically transformed varieties. Several varieties are being increased in the USA, pending registration which carry the Bt gene from Bacillus thuringiensis, rendering them toxic to Lepidopterous insects. Good results have been obtained with these varieties in minimizing the damage caused by cotton bollworm, Helicoverpa zea, tobacco budworm, Heliothis virescens and pink bollworm, Pectinophora gossypiella (Herzog, 1995). Varieties are available with tolerance to Glyphosate (Roundup) and to Bromoxynil (Buctril) and varieties with tolerance to sulfony- lurea based herbicides (Grooms, 1992) are likely to be available in the USA within the next few years. These varieties make it possible to use over-the-top applications of a wider range of her- bicides which were previously unavailable for cotton to control persistent weeds (Wilcut, 1995). Currently, additional Bt genes are being added or 'Pyramided' to increase the number of endotoxins produced by the plant in order to delay the development of Bt resistant insect popu- lations. These varieties with improved resistance are in an advanced stage of development and are expected to be released during the next few years. It is unlikely that herbicide resistant va- rieties will play any role in countries that rely mainly on mechanical and hand cultivation for weed control but Bt cotton could play an important role in cotton production in many countries, particularly those with pyrethroid resistant Heliothis/Helicoverpa populations, provided the technical and financial and legal problems associated with these varieties can be resolved. Financial Implications Financial returns from the development and introduction of transgenic cotton would be expected by (Meredith, 1995): 1. the originating company; 2. the plant breeders who develop adapted commercial varieties from the Bt cotton breed- ing lines; 3. the organization responsible for seed multiplication; 4. the organization responsible for seed distribution. Ultimately these costs would come into the cost of seed to the grower. How this could be accomplished in developing countries remains a difficult question. 46 Cotton Production Prospects for the Next Decade In the USA, Monsanto, the developers of Bt cotton, has proposed that growers pay a registration fee of $30 per acre. A certificate would then be issued for the purchase of the appro- priate quantity of seed from the seed dealer to plant the registered area. Safeguards would be necessary in the event of replanting and to ensure that growers do not retain their own seed for the following year. Under this proposal, in developing crop budgets, the cost of seed would be- come a fixed cost and no longer a variable cost. Thus in addition to training the players in the pesticide industry, the seed companies, the research institutes, extension agents, the crop con- sultants (where applicable) and growers in the complexities of growing Bt cotton, it would also be necessary to train the bankers who provide the growers with credit. Legal Implications The biotechnology company Agrecetus of Middleton, Wisconsin, U.S.A. won the exclu- sive US rights to all genetically engineered cotton. Monsanto and Calgene, the two major com- panies working on transgenic cotton, have struck deals with Agrecetus. There are concerns that academics will not work on genetic engineering in cotton for fear of transgressing this broad pat- ent (Mestel, 1994). These patents could have a negative impact on crop improvement in future and could lead to worldwide monopolies. The USDA and a competitor of Agrecetus have chal- lenged the cotton patent. The patent office has accepted the USDA point of view but the patent remains valid and Agrecetus has the right to respond to the patent office. The matter could take two to three years to resolve. Integrated Crop Management The period from seeding to the onset of flowering is critical in successful cotton produc- tion. Field performance, whether successful or disappointing, can usually be traced back to events or circumstances encountered earlier in the year. If the yield potential has been reduced by late planting, poor weed control, delayed thinning, inadequate fertility or any other cause, pesticide use in any form during the later stages of crop development will have little effect. No matter how effective integrated pest management may be, it will not enhance the yield of a poorly growing crop. Successful crop establishment necessitates the use of high quality planting seed. Weed competition during the early stages of crop development can cause significant yield reductions. However, excessively high plant populations resulting from excessive seeding rates can have the same effect as weed competition. Furthermore, the act of thinning causes disturbance to the root system of the plants left behind, leading to seedling shock and retarded seedling development. Timely planting, weeding and thinning are essential components of integrated crop management but they are often not achieved because of competition for labor at this critical period. Setting the fruiting positions on the lower sympodia has the effect of containing vegeta- tive plant development by channeling plant energy into fruit production rather than vegetative growth. This leads to a more open canopy and better light penetration, resulting in better boll retention and reduced losses through boll rots. Good early crop retention shortens the boll set- ting period and thus the maturity period of the crop without loss of yield, simultaneously reduc- ing the late season exposure to insect pest attack. However, techniques are needed to protect the early fruiting positions without disrupting IPM strategies that call for the conservation of natural enemies of the major cotton pests. Recently developed insecticidal seed dressings may provide the necessary protection against sucking pests and the augmentation of populations of natural Technical Issues 47 enemies of Lepidopterous insects such as practiced in Uzbekistan is worthy of consideration and further study. Techniques have been developed to monitor crop development as an aid to crop man- agement. This involves plant mapping to determine the vigor of the plant and how the crop is being set. The ratio of plant height to node number indicates if the plant is growing too vigor- ously or not vigorously enough. Such factors as the node number of the fruiting branch carrying a white flower on the first fruiting position at a particular stage of crop development, the fruit set below and the number of nodes above this position are indicative of the earliness of the crop and the potential yield. Monitoring is often supported by foliar chemical analysis to determine the nutrient needs of the plant. This information can be used in deciding on the application of addi- tional fertilizer or growth regulator and the justified for continued crop protection. Early season crop losses may occur as a result of poor crop development, early season insect infestations or adverse climatic conditions. In Syria, Pakistan and the Indian Punjab, high temperatures early in the season cause serious fruit shedding. China follows a practice of prun- ing off the early fruiting bodies to divert the plant energy to the crop in the middle and upper canopy. High thrips populations frequently destroy terminal buds, disorganizing normal crop development and causing shedding of the early flower buds resulting in a bushy crop and de- layed production of fruiting bodies. In sub tropical areas, jassids may cause serious damage to leaves and may even kill plants, dramatically reducing seedling development and leading to re- duced yield and quality. These conditions can be detected and identified through routine monitoring of crop de- velopment. However, none of the country reports make any mention of crop monitoring. These techniques are widely applied in countries such as the USA and Australia but their adaptation to countries where most cotton is produced by smallholders would entail serious logistical prob- lems and would probably necessitate a regional rather than a farm by farm approach. Most cotton varieties have the ability to compensate for early crop loss by producing new growth and new flower flushes later on, provided moisture and fertilizers are available. Thus farmers are often not concerned about early season crop loss and may not even be aware of losses caused by weeds or nematodes. However, the consequence of early season shedding is vegetative plants with virtually no bottom crop, the crop being produced mainly on the top can- opy. This has two important implications: * The bottom and middle plant fruiting bodies are frequently protected even if they are likely to shed due to poor light penetration and unfavorable micro-climatic conditions in the canopy of excessively vegetative plants; * The top crop is very difficult to protect late in the season in a bushy canopy, placing the crop at risk due to poorly controlled late season insect attacks. Moreover the develop- ment of sucking pests is encouraged by late season vegetative growth, resulting in the risk of lint quality losses. The interest for the farmers would be best served by producing an early crop, avoiding a protracted cropping period to reduce late season risks and assure a manageable plant structure. Many cases of insecticide resistance could have been avoided if correct plant management had been practiced. Attempts to maximize production sometimes leads to major problems and ulti- mately, to economic losses. 48 Cotton Production Prospects for the Next Decade IPM is only effective on well managed, healthy crops. Integrated Crop Management in- corporates all aspects of crop production and protection and is essential for successful crop pro- duction, leading to good returns on investment in a sustainable agricultural environment. Variety Improvement in the Study Countries All nine study countries have government run plant breeding programs. In addition, In- dia has a strong private breeding sector producing hybrid varieties which account for about 29 % of the total cotton planting seed. Government programs may be run by the Central Government, the Provincial or State governments or both. In order to be effective, all breeding programs re- quire fiber and spinning test facilities and efficient means of field testing new breeding lines and varieties under the full range of environmental conditions that cotton encounters in the country concerned. The final variety selection and registration should take into account the needs of the growers, the ginners and the spinners. This generally involves some form of Variety Registra- tion Committee which represents all these sectors and is enabled to accept or reject a new variety on the basis of its performance in area wide trials over a minimum of three years. The breeding objectives of the countries in the cotton study all include higher yields, quality and lint percentage. The development of open end spinning which has been replacing ring spinning in an increasingly large segment of the spinning industry has resulted in greater emphasis being placed on fiber strength as a specific selection criterion. Other changes in textile technology have necessitated greater importance being attached to fiber length uniformity, fine- ness and maturity without loss of other attributes such as length and yield. Early maturity is Exhibit 2.2: Differences in the Rate of Development important but for different of Chinese Cotton Varieties reasons in different coun- tries. In Egypt, India and MAIN VARIETIES China, earliness is neces- AHYANGRESEARCHISTITUTE FROST sary to permit a second APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV crop in the rotation while in VAEY - . .-.-- Uzbekistan, it is necessaryS LB to fit the crop into a rela- 0 Kl tively short season. Earli- ZM.12 _._ _ _ _* L*. ness is also of importance in reducing the exposure of F 08 the crop to the depredations a L5 114 of insect pests by escaping Z.M. 16 the late season generation _ _ _ __ of harmful pests. Other objectives vary according F 08 to local conditions but may 0 0 31 include host plant resis- ZM. 17 tance to certain diseases r _ _ _ _ _ r__ and insect pests, and toler- _ _ 1 _ _ _ _ _ _ 1. ance to drought, salinity S: SOWING; FL START OF FLOWERING: OB * FIRST OPEN BOLL early frost etc. However, earliness may result from improving the photosynthetic efficiency of the plant, leading to the onset of flowering with fewer heat units and/or to improved boll reten- tion. The latter is a product of both variety and management. It is unlikely that any major short- Technical Issues 49 ening of the period of boll maturation from bloom to boll burst will be achieved without a seri- ous reduction in quality and yield. Exhibit 2.2 demonstrates the differences in the period from sowing to the onset of flowering in different varieties in China. Brazil The main objectives in the breeding programs of both Meridian and Sententrional re- gions of Brazil are to improve yields in well adapted varieties which incorporate resistance to the main diseases and pests and have fiber characteristics which meet the needs of the domestic textile industry. The boll weevil, Anthonomus grandis, has become a major limiting factor in the Sententrional Region and is also present in the Meridian region. Early maturity has become in- creasingly important to escape some of the ravages of this pest. Being in or near the centers of origin of both the New World cotton species, Brazil has a wealth of genetic resources for incor- poration in the breeding program. The utilization of wild races of Gossypium is an important aspect of the program. The main breeding program in Meridian region is at the Instituto Agronomico do Campinas (IAC) in Sao Paulo. The variety IAC 20 is the only one in the region and is also grown in parts of the Sententrional region. A new variety with superior fiber characteristics has just been released. The main breeding station for the Sententrional region which works on both arboreal and herbaceous cotton and is located in Campina Grande, Pernambuco, is run by the national research organization EMBRAPA. In addition, the Parana cotton cooperative OCEPAR has a cooperative variety development agreement with the French organization CIRAD CA. China The Chinese Academy of Agricultural Science Cotton Research Institute at Anyang, He- nan Province, coordinates the breeding activities of 38 cotton research units throughout China with the objective of developing high yielding, high quality, multiple adversity resistant varie- ties. After two five year plans, the varieties Zhongmian 12, Zhongmian 16, Sumian 2, Zhong- mian 17 and Yumian 4 have been released. The fiber strength of these varieties has been im- proved significantly to meet the needs of the spinning industry. In addition, resistance to Fusarium wilt and Verticillium wilt have been combined and the yield potential and level of wilt resistance have been improved to compare favorably with international standards. New varieties cover 85 percent of the cotton area of China. The fiber strength of a new long staple has been significantly improved. A newly developed low gossypol (glandless) variety has insect toler- ance, yield and quality comparable to conventional varieties. Earliness is crucial in the Yellow River valley to fit cotton into a cotton-wheat double cropping system to meet the demand for increased production of both crops. The growing period aimed for is 100 to 120 days and the varieties should be suitable for relay cropping with wheat when sown either in the spring or the summer. In the Yangtze River Valley, the target is a growing period of 110 to 135 days and suitable for growing in either monoculture or relay cropped with wheat. In Xinjiang, the emphasis is on spring sown, monocultured, short season upland and long staple cotton. Other objectives include drought and salinity tolerant cotton, low gossypol cotton and hybrid cotton. The work on hybrid cotton incorporates both cytoplasmic and nuclear male sterility and has produced high yielding combinations from a set of three parent lines. Molecular biology or genetic engineering has been added to the breeding program. 50 Cotton Production Prospects for the Next Decade Egypt The cotton breeding program in Table 2.4: Distribution of Egyptian Varieties Egypt is located at the Cotton Research ELS Types Institute in Giza. This is supported by a Giza 45 Damietta cotton research stations at Kafr el Sheikh Giza 70 (Isis) Baheira in the lower Delta and at Sids in Middle Giza 76 Baheira Egypt. A Genetic Engineering Research Giza 77 Kafr el Sheikh; Gharbiya Institute has been established to work on LS Types the development of transgenic cotton va- Giza 75 (Lotus) Menufia; Dakahliya; Ghar- rieties. Initially, this will concentrate on biya; Sharqiya; Beheira; the development of Gossypium barbad- Qaylubiya; A B-Fayum ense types carrying the Bt gene from Giza 80 Beni Suef AI-Minya Bacillus thuringiensis which produces Giza 81 Sharqiya endotoxins against Lepidopterous insects. Giza 83 Sya Giza 83 Asyut The main objectives of the Giza 31 (Dandara) Asyut; Sohag breeding program are to maintain the original quality and yield characteristics of commercial varieties and to develop new varieties with improved quality and yield and with resistance to Fusarium oxysporum and tolerances to the stress of heat, salinity and waterlogging. New varieties are not released unless they show significant improvement on an existing variety. The cotton producing areas of Egypt have been categorized according to soils and climate and clearly demarcated into variety zones. The ELS varieties longer than 35 mm (> 1 3/8") are grown in the governorates closest to the Mediterra- nean Sea, the LS varieties longer than 32 mm (> 1 1/4") in the rest of the Delta and the hardiest varieties in Middle and Upper Egypt, as shown in Table 2.4. Consideration is being given to the introduction of upland varieties for production in upper Egypt, specifically to supply the domes- tic mills with medium staple cotton. In Governorates that have more than one variety, the areas for each are clearly demar- cated and the cotton from each variety can only be ginned at designated, single variety ginneries. The preservation of Egypt's reputation for quality cotton depends on the maintenance of the single variety zone and single variety ginnery system to prevent mixed bales of lint. This has to be taken into account during the process of privatizing ginning and marketing in Egypt. India Indian cotton production is strongly influenced by variations in monsoonal activity to the point where the very nature of the extremes (of rainfall) are said to have engendered an almost fatalistic approach. Consequently, there is a tendency to accept the irrelevancies of averages on their face value and to concentrate research efforts on more tangible lines of work, mainly in the field of genetics and crop improvement (Bell and Gillham, 1989). Being the original home of the Asiatic cottons, India has a wealth of genetic resources. The national gene bank is located at the Central Institute for Cotton Research, Nagpur and holds 4,005 accessions of G. hirsutum, 390 of G. barbadense, 1,701 of G. arboreum and 400 of G. herbaceum in addition to 24 wild species and 400 perennials. This material is used in the breeding program to improve specific characteristics of commercial cotton varieties, particularly related to adversity resistance and the development of hybrid cotton varieties. Genetic and cy- toplasmic male sterility from the American variety Gregg and the D genome species G. hark- Technical Issues 51 nessii are being exploited in new hybrids. Wild Australian species G. australe, G. sturtianum and G. bickii are being used to introduce delayed morphogenesis of gossypol in the embryo, leading to a normally glanded plant with glandless (gossypol free) seed in order to improve the quality and utilization of cottonseed bypr .xcts. Other important characteristics being studied include resistance to bacterial blight, jassid and whitefly, storm resistant bolls and increased boll size. The program also utilizes this material to develop more compact, early maturing varieties with naked seed to improve oil recovery and improved fiber strength. The breeding program is divided between the three production zones, each zone having its own breeding objectives which are determined by the zonal agro-climatic and other parame- ters applicable to cotton farming in that zone. The general objectives include improvements in quality, in yield through improved photosynthetic efficiency, leading to an increase in biomas but with a higher harvest index, giving a more fruitful, less vegetative plant, in yield stabilization through adversity resistance, and in increased farm income through a reduction in the duration of the crop (early maturity) and a higher Ginning Outturn (GOT) to give a higher lint return for the same seed cotton yield. The program also aims to improve the oil and protein content of the seed to increase the value of the byproducts. The report on India discusses the possibilities of utilizing biotechnology in the future but does not indicate the current involvement of India in this field of research. Mali The variety which was mostly spread at the beginning of this century was the Gossypium hirsutum race punctatumn which had supplanted the old-established Asiatic cottons, G. herbaceum var. africanum, right across Africa south of the Sahara. This was replaced by the upland variety Allen in 1920 which was subsequently replaced by a natural hybrid variety discovered in Mali, known as N'kourala. During the 1940s, the first varieties selected by IRCT (now CIRAD CA) developed at their stations in Bouake, Cote-d'lvoire, Bambari, Central African Republic and Bebedja, Chad were introduced to replace N'kourala. The Ntarla experimental station, near Koutiala was used to test these varieties. Re-selections of the Nkourala and Allen were cultivated till 1965 when BJA 592 was introduced, followed by BJA 592-SM67 in 1974. These were replaced in 1980 by the B163, from the Central African Republic. The most recent varieties cultivated throughout Mali are ISA205 with different reselections, ISA205B and ISA205G. Some new varieties are being disseminated, including STAMF and STAM 42 from Togo, GL 7, a glandless (gossypol free) variety from Cote d' Ivoire and NTA 88-6 developed in Mali). Clearly, CIRAD CA and the neighbouring francophone countries of West Africa are cooperating with Mali plant breeders and are playing a major role in variety improvement. The variety selection is organized around two major objectives, adaptation to Mali conditions and high GOT with good fiber quality and a low incidence of neps. The introduced varieties are established varieties which are maintained and increased in Mali, with close attention to isolation standards and the removal of off-types. A progeny row breeding system is followed on both normal and glandless varieties. The latter are currently of less importance than the normal varieties but they could increase in importance because of the increased value of their seed as a source of human food. 52 Cotton Production Prospects for the Next Decade CIRAD CA provides technical support for cotton research in francophone West Africa and most of the genetic resources come from its afiliated stations. So far, this does not include integration of biotechnology in the research program. The contribution of variety improvement to the profitability of cotton is difficult to separate from the contributions of improved cultivation techniques, fertilization, crop protection, etc. However, significant progress has been made in increasing lint yield through increased GOT to over 40.0 percent and there have also been major improvements in the intrinsic quality of cotton fiber. These improvements have raised the returns to the growers without the extension input necessary to improve cultural practices and crop protection. Mexico The objectives of the breeding program are to develop varieties which are adapted to lo- cal conditions and which have a high potential for yield, quality and fiber percentage. Consider- able progress has been made in developing new varieties with high quality and yield potential. However, at best, they were only planted on about 4,000 hectares, American varieties being fa- vored by the growers and the merchants. The reason for this is not clear but promotion and the prestige of the well known seed companies certainly influences farmers' decisions. Locally bred varieties are only marketed through government channels. New varieties released by the re- search station in Obreg6n, Sonora have out-yielded the check variety Deltapine 80 and have su- perior strength (HernAndez-Jasso and Perez-Solis, 1993; Cruz-Medina and Hernandez-Jasso, 1994). New varieties developed by the research station in Torre6n, Laguna also out-yielded Deltapine 80 and had superior fiber quality in trials reported in 1994 (Palomo and Godoy). In addition, they are early maturing and have tolerance to Verticillium wilt. Cotton could make some degree of a come-back as subsidies on prices for competing crops, notably maize, are removed. However, currently it is grown on a limited scale and since imported varieties find favor with the growers and local cotton breeders are in such close prox- imity to their competitors in the USA, the future of a domestic breeding program is questionable. Pakistan Plant breeding in Pakistan is carried out at the federal level at the Cotton Research Insti- tutes of the Pakistan Central Cotton Committee (PCCC) at Multan and Sakrand and at the pro- vincial level at the research stations in Faisalabad, Multan and Tandojam. The main objectives are quality and yield improvement, early maturity, a sympodial habit, heat tolerance, particularly in the Punjab, and resistance to the jassid, Amrasca spp. Emphasis has been placed on fiber length in improving fiber quality. Fiber strength of Pakistan cotton has never been a problem and was not considered in the selection process. In the last decade, however, changes in textile technology have accentuated the importance of the micronaire values and fiber strength and greater attention is now being paid to these characteristics in the breeding program. The original variety, 4F, was a short staple, monopodial, late maturing variety with a GOT of about 32.0 percent. Breeding lines with greater heat tolerance have been developed, the maturity period has been shortened by about 14 days and with the increase in early boll set, the plant structure has been modified to give a shorter, sympodial habit. Significant progress has also been made in improving fiber quality and GOT. The staple length of the latest commercial varieties is around 28.6 mm (I 3/32")and the GOT 40.0 percent. Technical Issues 53 At one time, root rot was a serious problem but this has been overcome through rotation with berseem clover. In wet years, bacterial blight, Xanthomonas malvacearum, can be a prob- lem and resistant varieties have been developed. However, the introduction of acid delinting for planting seed has largely overcome this problem. The major disease at present is the leaf curl virus (LCV) which is transmitted by the white fly and has caused serious crop losses over the past few years. The incidence of this disease has increased with the release of the highly sus- ceptible variety S-12. Vegetable production has expanded and serves as a host for the virus and the whitefly. Genetic stocks with resistance to virus are, however, available and the hybridiza- tion work has been started to transfer virus resistance in commercial cultivars. The early Pakistani cotton varieties had small bolls, weighing only about 2.5 gms. Se- lection has resulted in an increase in boll weight to 3.0-4.0 gms in the latest varieties, MNH-93, S12 and CIM 240. Generally, this had little effect on yield because the increase in boll weight is associated with a smaller number of bolls. However, the increase in boll weight would improve hand picking efficiency. The Central Cotton Research Institute (CCRI), Multan maintains a collection of about 1,200 varieties of G. hirsutum from 34 countries and of 30 related species. About 15 species have been used in hybridization with local varieties, giving rise to biotypes with resistance to jassid, bacterial blight, drought and leaf curl virus. These lines are being utilized in the devel- opment of improved cultivars. Some wild species have useful characters such as pink bollworm, Pectinophora gossypiella, resistance in G. thurberi. However, many potentially useful inter specific crosses have failed because they lead to sterility. Developments in genetic engineering open up possi- bilities to overcome this problem and could open the way for greater utilization of useful charac- ters such as leaf curl virus resistance from wild species. In Pakistan, genetic engineering, mo- lecular biology and different techniques for gene transfers and structuring transgenic plants, are just in initial stages at the Punjab University and the Nuclear Institute of Agriculture and Biology (NIAB) and have yet to be exploited for crop improvement. The possibilities of utilizing hybrid vigor have been explored without success and al- though genetic and cytoplasmic male sterile lines are available, they have not been exploited. NIAB has undertaken studies in mutation breeding and has developed the variety NIAB- 78 through this method. However, irradiation induced mutations have not given rise to the de- velopment of any varieties or breeding lines with commercial potential. The plant breeding program has made major contributions not only in changing the plant habit towards earliness, improved boll retention, higher yields and improved fiber quality but also in improved GOT. Based on an estimated 10 million bale crop, the increase in GOT alone from 32.0 percent to 37.0-40.0 percent accounts for an estimated 1.3 million bales worth about Rs.6.5 billion annually. These improvements, coupled with an efficient seed multiplication pro- gram, benefit the farmers without any major extension effort. Tanzania Plant breeding in Tanzania is nominally conducted at two research stations, Ukiriguru near Mwanza in the Western Cotton Growing Area (WCGA) and Ilonga near Kilosa for the Eastern Cotton Growing Area (ECGA). However, the plant breeding program is struggling to 54 Cotton Production Prospects for the Next Decade survive because of lack of funds, particularly to support the field trial component in different districts of the two areas. The fiber laboratory has fiber testing equipment but is not operational because of a lack of spare parts. The main objectives of both the Tanzania programs is higher yielding varieties with re- sistance to bacterial blight, Xanthomonus malvacearum and jassid, Empoasca spp. In the WCGA, drought tolerance is of greater importance than in the ECGA. Uzbekistan Four institutes are involved in the development of new cotton varieties in Uzbekistan. The Scientific Amalgamation of Biologists (formerly the Institute of Experimental Biology of Plants) and the Institute of Genetics (formerly the Institute of Phytopathology) come under the Academy of Science while the Scientific Production Complex, SOYUZKHLOPOK (Institute of Cotton) and the Scientific Industrial Amalgamation (Breeding and Seed Technology of Cotton, also known as the Institute of Breeding and Seed Production), come under the Academy of Agri- cultural Science The Scientific Amalgamation of Biologists has branches in the Fergana Valley and in the Tashkent area. Regional laboratories include a State Farm in the Tashkent area and a sub-station in the Bayaut Rayon of Syr Dar'ya oblast, between Tashkent and Djizak. Research includes plant physiology, biochemistry, genetics, genetic engineering, breeding, ecology, wilt resistance, crop water requirements and salt tolerance. Verticillium wilt is the most serious problem of cot- ton in the Republic and the Institute has undertaken intensive theoretical and practical work on this problem. Their varieties includes the Tashkent varieties, varieties prefixed by the initials AN (Academy of Science) and, more recently, the early maturing variety Ulduz. The variety AN-Bayout-2 has high salt tolerance and is widely grown in saline areas of Bukhara, Djizak, Syr Dar'ya and Tashkent oblasts. The Institute of Genetics was only recently established from the Institute of Phytopa- thology which was under military control before the break up of the Soviet Union. The work of the Institute which now comes under the Academy of Science, includes genetic engineering with emphasis on host plant resistance to pests and diseases and selection for low water requirements and a high cottonseed oil content. A possible relationship has been observed between oil con- tent, seedling vigor and drought tolerance. Varieties developed by the Institute are tested inde- pendently of the other institutes and are released directly into the seed multiplication scheme. The Scientific Production Complex is responsible for developing cotton growing tech- nology and for breeding both long and medium staple varieties with improved strength and lint percentage. The Institute has twelve sub-stations, covering all oblasts and all ecological zones. Competition exists between the four cotton breeding institutes but only this institute covers the whole country. Their breeding work has gained wide recognition and has involved close coop- eration with China where Uzbek varieties have performed well, particularly in Xinjiang which is on a similar latitude. Their varieties cover over one million hectares in Uzbekistan and are also grown in Tadjikistan, Turkmenia, Kazakhstan and Kirgizia. They developed all the long staple varieties grown in the Central Asian Republics. Breeding work on type I long staple, G. barbadense varieties is conducted at the field station in Termez. Great success has been achieved in developing so-called zero type varieties which carry the bolls directly on the main stem, have very restricted sympodial branch develop- Technical Issues 55 ment and reduced water requirements. The same success has not been achieved with medium staple varieties. Salinity is not a problem in the Termez area. All long staple varieties are Fusarium wilt tolerant. Earliness is an important criterion and success has been achieved in re- ducing the vegetative period (emergence to 50 percent of plants flowering) from 135 - 140 days to 119 days. The target is 110 days. The variety Terrnez- 16, developed at Termez, is the long staple variety of choice, covering 98 percent of the long staple area. An array of brown and green linted cotton varieties has been developed. It is of consid- erable ecological and industrial importance and is of particular interest to the military for cam- ouflage uniforms because naturally colored fabrics do not show up as much as dyed fabrics. The Scientific Industrial Amalgamation (the Institute of Breeding and Seed Production) has its headquarters and central experiment base in Tashkent with experiment bases at Kzil Ra- vat in the Namangan oblast, Akkurgan in the Tashkent oblast and Surkhan in the Surkhan Dar'ya oblast. Its varieties include the long staple Karshy-8 and S-6037, the latter to be replaced by Sultan-5, and the Medium staple S-4727, S-9070, S-6524, S-6530, Namangan-77, Chimbai 3010, Kzil Ravat, Namangan- I and Fergana-3. One of the weaknesses in the variety program in Uzbekistan is that new varieties do not replace older varieties. This has resulted in an excessive number of varieties in cultivation. The main constraint to reducing the number of varieties is considered to be changes in wilt biotypes which necessitates fairly frequent changes of variety. However, varieties grown on only a small area for several years could be withdrawn from cultivation since improved varieties are avail- able. This could apply to the medium staple varieties Kzil Ravat and Namangan-l which are grown on a limited area but the report suggests that it does not apply to long staple varieties or to short season varieties that are used mainly for replanting. The number of varieties has been re- duced from about 47 in 1993 to 20 in 1994. Bukhara Oblast is taking a lead in reducing varieties and in maintaining quality by moving in the direction of becoming a single variety oblast with Bukhara-6 as the variety of choice. An extensive collection of wild species of Gossypium from many regions of the world has been collected by various Institutes and is used in breeding for earliness and wilt tolerance. The Tashkent State Agrarian University has also undertaken cotton genetic studies on a collec- tion of monogenic lines. The fiber testing facilities available to Uzbek plant breeders are limited. Time consum- ing fiber test methods are used, particularly in assessing fiber length, severely restricting the number of tests that can be conducted. There are some small scale spinning lines but they re- quire reconditioning. Classical time consuming methods, involving extraction of oil from the seed with consequent destruction of the seed, are used in assessing the oil content. Variety Maintenance and Seed Production A number of factors such as cool weather, excessive rainfall and poor seedbed prepara- tion can contribute to poor plant stands. However, low quality seed is a major cause of poor plant stands directly to through poor viability and indirectly, through poor seedling vigor, leading. to an increased susceptibility to seedling diseases and early season sucking pests. 56 Cotton Production Prospects for the Next Decade Many factors during Box 2.4: Requirements for Producing Quality Planting Seed crop development, pre- and Seed Multiplication: post-harvest handling influence Maintenance of the genetic purity of the variety; cottonseed quality. Harvested Prevention of physical deterioration at all stages of mul- seed contains mature, well de- tiplication; veloped seeds, light immature, Timely production of sufficient, high quality, disease free insect damaged and diseased seed; seeds and heavy, deteriorated Delinting and grading to remove immature and insect seeds. Careful management, damaged seed; harvesting, handling and gin- Seed treatment with appropriate fungicides and/or insec- ning minimize seed damage. ticides. Delinting facilitates seed treat- MaintenanceofVarietal Integrity: ment, grading and the free flow Mitnneo aitlItgiy m Annual release of fresh breeder seed; of seed during seeding. Supervision of seed multiplication; Clear demarcation of single variety areas and ginneries; Planting Seed Production in Regulation of seed cotton purchasing and ginning to pre- the Study Countries vent mixing. With the exception of Seed Certification: With he exeptio of Periodic inspection of seed plots; Mali, cotton planting seed pro- roguing pe p s; duction is weak in all the coun- Rogumg off-type plants; tries in the study. Mexico could Supervision of ginning and processing to prevent mixing; also be regarded as an exception Germination tests to assess both vigor and viability. because most of the planting seed comes from US seed companies. In China, India and Pakistan, as much as 50 percent of the crop is planted to farmer's own seed despite the fact that about 28 percent of the Indian crop is hybrid. With continuous production of cotton from the same original source of seed without se- lection, genetic drift would cause changes in variety performance, particularly with regard to quality. In the absence of quality controls on planting seed, seeding rates in most countries are excessive and unless this can be reduced to an acceptable level through the introduction of high quality seed, it would not be possible to maintain an economic seed program because of the amount of land necessary to satisfy the excessive demand. Brazil Seed production in the Meridian Region of Brazil is well organized, particularly in Parand where it is handled by the Organization of Cooperatives of Parana State (OCEPAR) and Sao Paulo where it is handled by the Coordination for Integral Technical Assistance, CATI and the IAC. In the Sententrional Region, seed production varies from one state to another. In Rio Grande do Norte, the government run seed program is efficient but in other states, it is generally ineffective. The Meridian region produces only one variety and surplus seed from Sao Paulo and Parana finds its way throughout the country. China China has initiated a seed multiplication program based on special ginneries equipped with acid delinting and seed treatment facilities but seed grading could be strengthened. The seed dressings used have been developed by the Beijing Agricultural University and incorporate pesticides against both diseases and insects, trace elements and plant growth regulators. Several Technical Issues 57 of these multi-functional products are available. This program is in its infancy but 136 units have been established in quality cotton base counties. Within these counties, a network has been established of stock farms, ginneries and seed increase areas to produce, supply and market seed. Farmers in these areas are not permitted to retain their own seed and all planting seed must be supplied by the county. This program requires further expansion because despite the program, about 50 percent of all planting seed is farmers own seed. This applies particularly to the Yangtze River Valley. National standards for seed propagation were published in 1992 by the National Stan- dards Bureau. Three systems are used for variety maintenance, the first being a progeny row system, the second, self pollination in a bulk of cotton and the third, storage and periodic release of breeder seed designated Ultra Seed Stock. Seed certification is handled by Provincial Techni- cal Supervision Bureaux. Seed control stations have seed certifiers. A Cotton Quality Supervi- sion, Certification and Testing Center was set up by the Ministry of Agriculture in 1990. This center is responsible for certification of seed passing between provinces and of arbitrating any disputes. Certification standards are being formulated and personnel trained. Egyp Egypt has an elaborate program for the maintenance of varietal purity, based on a prog- eny row system. Foundation seed is produced from yield tested progenies within a limited num- ber of selected families. Registered seed is then produced on government farms in different re- gions. Each seed producing government farm handles only one variety to prevent crossing or mixing. Registered seed is distributed to contract growers and agricultural cooperatives who produce their crops under the supervision of the Seed Department of the Ministry of Agriculture and Land Resources and are under obligation to return the seed to the Department. Certified seed is sold to farmers. The main weaknesses of the Egyptian seed multiplication program are that all varieties are maintained at the research station at Kafr el Sheikh where the utmost precautions are taken to isolate the varieties from each other to prevent crossing but they are then all ginned at the same ginnery where mixing could take place. The excessively high seeding rate of 70 kg/feddan or about 178 kg/ha which is double the recommended rate of 75 kg/ha. This makes it virtually im- possible to satisfy the demand for planting seed from Certified Seed so a considerable amount of gin run seed is planted. The only treatment it receives is heat treatment after ginning to control pink bollworm. The seed generally has low viability with germination rates of 50-60 percent are common. Satisfactory stands could be obtained with good quality, delinted and graded seed with seeding rates of 25 kg/ha or less. Despite the low viability, the high seeding rate leads to excessive plant stands and prob- lems with thinning. Delayed thinning can seriously reduce yields while any thinning with high plant populations leads to root damage in the retained seedlings, opening the way for micro- organisms. A program has been proposed to establish specific single variety seed processing units and seed certification to improve the quality of planting seed but this would not be viable with the current high seeding rates. India Seed production and distribution in India is controlled by the Seeds Act (1966) and the Seeds (Control) Order (1984). The seeds used by farmers are Certified Seed, Truthfully Labeled 58 Cotton Production Prospects for the Next Decade Seed, Neighbors Seed or Self Grown Seed. A high percentage of the planting seed falls into the last two categories. With the onset of privatization in 1994-95, more than one variety has been permitted at individual ginneries and since such a high percentage of seed is farmer's own or neighbors seed, mixed varieties have been inevitable. Certified seed is seed that has been certi- fied by the statutory seed certification agency and complies with regulations and specifications regarding isolation, trueness to type and seed viability. Seed that complies with these specifica- tions but is not certified by the state agency is labeled Truthfully Labeled Seed. Seed is produced by both the private and public sectors. The private sector concentrates on hybrid seed which is usually sold as Truthfully Labeled Seed. The public sector handles 30- 40 percent of the certified seed but less than 10 percent of the Truthfully Labeled Seed while the public sector handles 60-70 percent of the certified seed and over 90 percent of the Truthfully Labeled Seed. In the public sector, Breeder Seed is supplied by the cotton research stations who are re- sponsible for variety maintenance. This is grown by State Seed Corporations on their own farms or through contract growers to produce Certified Seed. Seed certification staff are responsible for inspecting seed crops, rogueing out off-types and ensuring that growers carry out instructions regarding seed purity. Growers receive a certificate which goes to the ginner where this seed cotton is stored, ginned and bagged separately under the supervision of the Seed Certification Agency. Seed is identified at all stages in accordance with the variety and generation of in- crease. Similar procedures are followed by the private sector except that they produce their own Breeder Seed and generally do not get the seed certified. Planting seed is distributed in the public sector through the Primary Agricultural Coop- eratives (PACS) and is sold to the farmers as the in kind component of the crop loan package. The private sector distributes seed through trader outlets for sale on a cash basis. Seed treatment varies across states. In Maharashtra, all certified seed is acid delinted by the State Seed Corporation before sale to the farmers while in Tamil Nadu and Kamataka, certi- fied seeds are sold without treatment. Treatment with chemical seed dressings is insignificant but many farmers apply cow dung to the seed before sowing. Mali The cottonseed production in Mali includes 3 main phases. The first is the responsibility of the genetic and variety improvement unit at the research stations and deals with the first three generations of multiplication GI to G3. Emphasis in this phase is seed quality and purity. The final phase aims to produce enough seed for the CMDT to sow 40 to 50 hectares per variety. The second phase is conducted by and through the CMDT Seeds Division which has three field agents and a coordinator who collaborate with the seeds growers. The seed growers are chosen according to their technical skills and knowledge of cotton production. Throughout the season, the Seeds Division agents supervise the fields of these growers and may reject any field that does not comply with the contract requirements. Seed producers are paid the first choice (A grade) price, plus 5 CFA Francs which is 90 CFA Francs/kg at current prices. The Seeds Division agents schedule harvesting and ginning. During this period, they take charge of the passage of seed cotton from the weigh bridge through storage, ginning, bagging and tagging, ensuring that the tag bears details of the variety, the year and the generation of increase. Samples are drawn from each lot for germination and purity tests. The seeds are Technical Issues 59 packed in 60 kg-bags, sufficient for sowing 2 hectares and is delivered to the growers, free of charge with 2 small bags of an appropriate fungicides-insecticides for which they pay. Seed treatment is carried out at sowing time. The extension wing of the company ensures that farmers plant at acceptable seeding rates and use fresh seed each year. The seed scheme always plans 25 percent reserve of seeds in cases of re-sowing. The multiplication coefficient varies from 18 to 25 according to varieties and climate conditions but 18 is normally used for purposes of calculation. The present multiplication program requires 3 multiplication generations to satisfy the needs of the whole cotton zone in any given variety. Mexico Most of the cottonseed planted in Mexico comes from the U.S.A., the major supplier being the Delta and Pine Land Company in Scott, Mississippi. Other suppliers include Stone- ville, Rex, Coker (now part of Stoneville) and Arizona Pima. The Government of Mexico is responsible for assuring varietal purity, seed certification, treatment, storage and distribution of seed of locally developed varieties. Ginning and phyto- sanitary control of this seed is supervised by the Ministry of Agriculture. However, under the 1991 Seeds Act in Mexico, private companies can produce planting seed commercially. Pakistan A strain/variety is constituted by bulking the progenies of plants selected from a base population. They may number 50-100 progenies, depending on the pre-basic seed requirements, forming the base for maintaining the strain from year to year. The seed of the typical progenies is bulked to form the pre-basic seed for further multiplication in basic and certified seed stages. Since there is almost no natural crossing, selfing the flowers is not considered necessary for maintaining purity. Any row which is not true to type in field and laboratory tests is culled. Pre-basic seed is planted in a block to produce basic seed for the Punjab Seed Corpora- tion/Seed Companies for increase to the certified seed stage. Certified seed may be raised in one or two steps, depending on the facilities available and the quantity required for distribution. During all stages from pre-basic to certified seed stage, the crop and the seed obtained therefrom is inspected and managed for purity by the Federal Seed Certification Department (FSCD) which inspects the crop and the seed to verify/authenticate the observations of the seed agencies. The Punjab and Sindh Seed Corporations were formed in the Government sector under the Seeds Act (1976) to deal with the seed multiplication and supply program. Under the charter, these Corporations were to take over pre-basic seed from the breeders and propagate it further through basic seed and certified seed stages at the Government farms or in the fields of regis- tered growers to achieve the laid down targets of seed supply. A National Seed Council was formed at the Federal level with Provincial Seed Councils at the provincial level to regulate the system of seed multiplication and supply. A Federal Seed Certification Department was created to supervise quality seed production at all stages and to verify the purity and the viability of the seed to be distributed to the growers. Under the Cotton Control Act (1949), it is obligatory for the Government to supply 100 percent of the seed requirements of each registered variety. The Seed Corporations could not handle this quantity of seed so in late 80s, the Government brought the private sector into this function. Initially, the Punjab Seed Corporation supplied 100 percent of the seed requirements 60 Cotton Production Prospects for the Next Decade but now it supplies only 35 percent of the total needs. The Sindh Seed Corporation has not de- veloped and almost all their seed is brought in from Punjab or supplied by the provincial ginning factories. Recognized private seed companies supply about 16 percent of the requirements, the remaining approximately 50 percent being supplied by the informal sector, mainly the ginneries. The Seed Corporations distribute their seed through their own sale points, through pri- vate dealers located throughout the province and through Agricultural Supplies Corporations which have their own numerous sale points. The Punjab Seed Corporation provides seed for sale to cooperative societies and through branches of cooperative banks. Private companies have their own dealers while the ginning factories supply seed, usually on credit, to the growers who bring their seed cotton to them for ginning. Seed from these informal sources is generally of good standard because it comes from good growers but prolonged production of cotton from un- selected seed will result in genetic changes and can lead to a decline in both yield and quality. The staple length and uniformity ratio could be improved if the supply of certified seed could reach the 100 percent level. Thus the overall position of seed supply is not satisfactory. The private sector has not come up to expectations and the informal sector dominates seed sup- ply. The handicaps faced by the private sector include lack of easy credit for the seed compa- nies, precarious supply of basic seed and exacting seed laws. The country report recommends that seed companies with appropriate technical and financial capabilities should be helped to produce their own pre-basic and basic seed, low interest credit should be available to them against seed as collateral, and seed certification from FSCD should be desirable to ensure that farmers get pure, quality but not compulsory, provided the seed companies have their own strict quality controls and put the tags/labels on the seed under truthful labeling system, subject, of course, to checking and inspection by FSCD. Under the Seeds Act, certified seed should have at least 90 percent purity and viability of 75 percent, although relaxation in germination percentage may be allowed under special circum- stances. Genetic purity of seed required under the Act/Rules, is 99.95 percent for pre-basic, 99.90 percent for basic and 99.8 percent for certified seed. Under 'Truthful-in-Labeling' system, the minimum limit of this purity is relaxed to 96.0 percent. The seed produced by the registered private sector is certified by the Federal Seed Certi- fication Department. The seed coming from informal sources is generally derived from the pro- duce of big growers who usually get quality seed for planting their crop. To ensure purity and to avoid mixing of seed during ginning and storage operations, the Punjab Seed Corporation buys the entire produce of the registered growers and gins the same in their own or hired ginning factories. The seed thus obtained, after testing for purity and viability, is stored in gunny bags in ventilated godowns till the time of distribution. Since the weather is generally dry during the storage period (December - March), ordinary ventilated godowns are considered to be satisfactory for the storage of seed. The gunny bags or cloth bags, having about 20 kgs or 40 kgs seed according to the requirement, are stored in 7-8 layers with enough room at the top for ventilation. The laboratory tests and field experiments have shown that the treatment of seed with fungicides has no benefit either for germination or for the crop yield. The high soil tempera- tures, (above 300C in general) at the time of sowing, induce germination before the fungi can gain access. Bacterial blight bacterium, Xanthomonas malvacearum, infects seedlings even at this high temperature but recently, farmers have started acid delinting the seed on their own to Technical Issues 61 make it flow more freely through the planter and this has effectively controlled bacterial blight. Consequently, no fungicidal treatment of seed is practiced. Tanzania Seed multiplication in Tanzania is extremely weak. This has been exacerbated by mar- ket liberalization, permitting free movement of seed cotton across variety demarcation lines, leading to mixed seed. The research station releases fairly large quantities of Foundation Seed regularly for multiplication by the cooperatives with the intention of multiplication in an area that is free of plants of earlier releases. However, farmers receive seed free and excess seed is often kept from one year for planting the next year. There is no seed certification so there is no guarantee of the maintenance of varietal purity. Efforts are being made to correct this situation by making the Tanzania Cotton Lint and Seed Board (TCLSB) responsible for seed multiplica- tion. However, there is a need for a seed certification program for cotton and other crops. Uzbekistan Under the Soviet Union, the number and choice of varieties was centrally controlled and ginneries were relatively large. This provided tight control on ginning, ensuring that each seed cotton stack was confined to the same grade of a single variety. The central authority was also responsible for the quality and purity of planting seed. Consequently, they built up a reputation for long runs of uniform, well packaged bales of cotton. Under the present system, varieties are developed by the research institutes and are then passed on to the Ministry of Agriculture for maintenance on Elite Farms and seed multiplication on contract farms while the Ministry of Cotton Processing is responsible for ginning and market- ing planting seed. Thus three separate organizations handle the seed. The seed supply system has no mechanism for variety maintenance beyond the Elite Farms and no facilities exist for grading planting seed, for effective testing for viability and vigor or for appropriate seed treat- ment and storage. Consequently, excessive seeding rates are common and replanting is normal. This leads to mixed varieties and uneven plant stands due to multiple planting, contributing fur- ther to further deterioration in planting seed and fiber quality (World Bank 1995). Once the variety is released, the originating plant breeder plays no further role in its maintenance or seed production so there is no feed back from Elite Farms on varietal perform- ance and no mechanism for the removal and replacement of old varieties with new, improved varieties. The situation could be improved through greater coordination of the activities of the three organizations to give the plant breeder a greater say in variety maintenance and through certification of seed beyond the Elite Farm stage. The selection of varieties is not regulated as it was before and farm managers are able to substitute varieties of their choice. Consequently, seed cotton from different varieties is almost certainly being mixed. This could have an adverse effect on the reputation and marketability of Uzbek cotton. This situation could be aggravated by privatization of ginning with the replace- ment of large ginning units by small units, serving individual farms. Each ginnery would be in a position to retain its own planting seed, thus removing any control on the variety planted, the quality of the planting seed, the regularity of the lint and the compilation of records on the area planted to cotton by variety and oblast. Variety maintenance and seed multiplication are handled by Elite Seed Farms which use a progeny row system for variety maintenance and produce Elite (Breeder) and Reproduction I 62 Cotton Production Prospects for the Next Decade (Foundation) seed. The later generations designated Reproduction 2 (Registered), Reproduction 3 (Certified) and Reproduction 4 (Farm) seed are produced by contract seed producing farms. Ginneries handle planting seed of more than one variety so mixing is inevitable. Planting seed is double machine delinted and screened with no further treatment or grading. Germination tests are based on radical emergence without consideration of the rate of root development and at only one temperature so there is no testing for seed quality or vigor. There is one acid delinting plant which handles about 25 percent of the country's seed requirements but the acid delinted seed is not graded. Furthermore, the facility handles several varieties so mixing is inevitable. The World Bank is working with the Government of Uzbekistan to support the estab- lishment of private seed companies and to convert collective seed farms into private farms. Each company would produce seed of only one variety and would have its own ginnery and seed treatment line, incorporating acid delinting, gravity table screening and fungicide treatment. This would be supported by independent seed certification, working to International Seed Test- ing Association (ISTA) standards for viability and vigor (Ibid). Fiber and Spinning Test Facilities The correlations between the components of yield and quality make it essential for plant breeders to be supported by adequate fiber testing facilities to facilitate concurrent selection for both yield and quality. Final selection of new varieties should also be based on spinnability which is not necessarily reflected in fiber test data. This calls for spinning test facilities for testing small samples of cotton. The fiber attributes of major concern in plant breeding are fiber length, strength, fineness and maturity. The Fibrograph which is incorporated in HVI systems, is the most widely used instrument for measuring length and uniformity. These measures can be used effectively in plant breeding programs but the measurement of strength, fineness and maturity present problems. The traditional methods of measuring fineness and maturity involved microscopic ex- amination and counting of fibers that had been treated with caustic soda to determine maturity and weighing sections of fiber cut from an array to determine the mean fiber weight. The ma- turity determined from the microscopic examination and the mean fiber weight are used to de- termine the standard fiber weight which is the weight per unit of length of fully matured fibers and is an index of fineness. This is a very costly and time consuming operation. The Micronaire was developed to give a measure of linear density of the fiber and it is widely used in marketing and spinning cotton. However, the Micronaire measurement is a combination of fineness and maturity. Within a variety, the fineness and length are closely correlated and are genetically de- termined so the Micronaire provides a measure of maturity. However, when comparing varieties or breeding lines, fineness and maturity cannot be differentiated on the basis of a Micronaire reading. The Fiber testing laboratories that support a breeding program require additional equipment such as the Shirley Development Fineness/Maturity Tester (FMT) for this purpose. Technical Issues 63 Table 2.5: Fiber Quality Parameters of Four Genotypes and Paymaster HS26 as Control Geno- High Volume Instrument Tester Fineness Maturity Tester type UHML ML UI Strength Elongation Micron Maturity Fineness inch inch percent gms/tex percent aire percent dtex Control 1.04 0.85 82.1 27.3 7.9 4.44 88.4 1.70 #2 1.17 0.98 83.2 34.3 6.4 4.15 91.0 1.51 #3 1.10 0.91 82.6 31.3 6.4 4.22 90.7 1.55 #4 1.22 1.02 84.1 37.4 5.8 3.55 90.9 1.25 #5 1.20 1.01 84.1 38.0 6.7 3.79 93.1 1.32 Source: Faerber and Gannaway, 1995 Very fine, mature, low micronaire cotton genotypes have been developed in Texas which give excellent spinning performance. The micronaire value has been reduced significantly by reducing fineness without any reduction in maturity, using the FMT instrument to differentiate between the two (Table 2.5). The resulting genotypes produce fine, mature cotton that can be rotor spun into yarns that are superior in quality to those produced from the control, Paymaster HS26, with a reduction in the nep count (Table 2.6). The FMT ensured that the reduction in mi- cronaire value was achieved by reducing intrinsic fineness without any reduction in maturity (Gannaway, et al., 1995). If the low micronaire value had been due to immaturity, the resultant yarn would have been very irregular and neppy. These results show that high quality cottons can be spun into fine count rotor yarns at the highest speeds possible today. They also show that when fineness and maturity are differentiated in the breeding program, cottons with greater fine- ness but high maturity can be developed which give nep levels that are fully acceptable in mod- ern textile manufacture. The problem arises in combining this level of quality with an equally high agronomic performance. Several systems have been developed to determine the bundle strength of cotton fiber. The Pressley strength tester became accepted as the standard method of strength testing in the trade although the Stelometer, developed later, gave an assessment of both elongation before rupture and bundle strength. The latter is more closely correlated with yarn strength than Pressley strength and has been accepted by the International Textile Manufacturers Federation (ITMF) as the standard against which new strength testing equipment is compared. Table 2.6 Yarn Quality of Four Genotypes and Paymaster HS26 as Control Geno- 14 Tex Weaving Yarn TM 4.5 14 Tex Knitting Yarn TM 4.1 type Max. Tenacity Neps Max. Tenacity Neps Force cN cN/tex Force cN cN/tex Control 158.4 10.64 159 147.0 9.95 175 #2 190.1 13.20 116 178.2 12.38 124 #3 179.0 12.09 153 159.3 10.96 176 #4 217.7 14.84 130 191.5 13.04 159 #5 222.3 14.64 116 193.5 13.24 127 Source: Faerber and Gannaway, 1995 64 Cotton Production Prospects for the Next Decade An automated strength test system developed for the HVI test lines has become widely accepted in the trade. However, the HVI strength test results have shown an interaction with va- riety. Thus two varieties which have similar Stelometer and yarn strengths may differ signifi- cantly when tested on the HVI strength tester (Table 2.7). Furthermore, the correlation between HVI strength and yarn strength is poor (Table 2.8). This suggests that the HVI strength meas- urement is influenced by fiber characteristics other than strength and its use in selection pro- grams could lead to the development of other undesirable fiber characteristics such as coarse- ness. This renders HVI strength unsuitable for plant breeding (Howle and Taylor, 1995; Taylor et al, 1995). Table 2.7: Comparison of Fiber Strength Measurements with Yarn Strength of Varieties, 1993 Variety Fiber Strength (gms/tex) Yarn Strength (Ibs) Stelometer MCI Spinlab Universal Rotor Spun' Ring Spun2 Acala 1517-88 23.4 31.0 31.4 22.8 12.4 120.8 PD 5529 22.4 27.1 26.4 20.9 11.8 117.0 PD 3 21.3 27.3 27.4 20.3 11.5 114.5 PD 5365 21.8 29.5 30.0 21.7 11.4 114.3 DP Acala 90 20.8 29.7 31.1 20.9 11.3 112.8 Coker 315 21.0 26.1 27.5 20.2 11.0 109.5 DES 119 20.8 28.3 26.0 19.3 10.6 107.8 Coker 320 21.7 25.7 27.3 20.0 10.5 105.3 Georgia King 20.5 28.4 29.0 20.0 10.5 102.8 DP 5415 19.9 30.0 30.1 19.6 10.2 97.5 DP 50 20.1 26.9 26.0 18.4 9.8 91.3 L.S.D.(0.05) 1.2 1 .7 1.9 0.6 0.8 7.1 1/ Single End Tenacity of a 22's rotor spun yarn 2/ Skein Strength of a 22's ring-spun yarn Source: Howle and Taylor, 1995; Taylor et al, 1995 Fiber laboratories used by plant breeders can use HVI equipment for measuring length and length uniformity but they need additional equipment such as the Shirley Development Fineness Maturity Tester (FMT) to differentiate between fineness and maturity and an instru- ment such as the Stelometer to verify any HVI data on bundle strength. Table 2.8: Correlations of Fiber Strength Measurements with Yarn Strength, 1993 Ring - Spun Rotor - Spun Instrument Skein Str Tenacity Skein Str Tenacity Average r2 Stelometer 0.907 0.849 0.913 0.856 0.880 0.774 MCI 0.104 0.210 0.269 0.387 0.243 0.059 Spinlab 0.290 0.306 0.405 0.422 0.356 0.127 Universal 0.850 0.837 0.926 0.907 0.880 0.774 Source: Howle and Taylor, 1995; Taylor et al, 1995 Technical Issues 65 Fiber tests are required early in the selection program while spinning tests are normally conducted during the later stages. However, the amount of cotton available for the earliest stage of spinning test is too limited for spinning on a production line. Small scale spinning test lines developed by the Shirley Institute in England, have been widely used in many countries but they are no longer being manufactured and spare parts usually have to be improvised. This is an area of weakness in many breeding programs. Brazil Brazil has a well equipped fiber laboratory at the IAC. A successful method has been developed for using the Fibrograph and Micronaire to differentiate between fineness and matur- ity. It has been used with considerable success for a number of years at IAC but has not found acceptance in other countries. China China has a well equipped fiber laboratory at the Cotton Research Institute in Anyang. The equipment includes an HVI line. However, although they have a newly developed small spinning mill next to the Institute, they do not have small scale spinning test equipment to com- pare the spinnability of cotton from different breeding lines until sufficient lint is available for a commercial size test. Egypt Egypt has a technical laboratory at the CRI in Giza which is equipped to conduct a wide range of tests on breeding lines and to conduct technological research on textile and ginning technology. The laboratory is also equipped with an HVI line. India The Central Institute for Research on Cotton Technology in Bombay, India provides fi- ber and spinning test facilities for use by the plant breeders. This is a well equipped institute with interests in all aspects of cotton textile technology. They have an HVI line which is exten- sively used in selecting for high strength in the breeding program and has contributed to the de- velopment of two high strength varieties, Pusa 2-95 and Pusa 2-98. There is no indication as to the relative role of HVI strength tests and spinning tests in selecting these lines. Mali Mali has access to the Technology Laboratory of CIRAD CA in Montpellier, France. The success of the West African breeding program in developing high yielding varieties with a high GOT and no loss of quality is a tribute to the work of the breeders and the support they have received from the fiber laboratory. Mexico No mention is made of the fiber or spinning test facilities available to the plant breeders in the Mexico country study. 66 Cotton Production Prospects for the Next Decade Pakistan Pakistan Central Cotton Committee (PCCC) has fiber testing facilities in Karachi where they also conduct textile research and micro spinning facilities at the CRI, Multan. The halo length, the hand staple tuft method and sometimes Baer diagrams were used in the past for the determination of fiber length. Currently these measurements are determined on the Fibrograph. Tanzania Tanzania has a fiber and spinning test laboratory at the Ukiriguru Research Station but the equipment is in need of repair. The fiber laboratory has the necessary fiber testing equipment but it is not operational. They have a small scale spinning plant which is in working order but cannot be used because the air conditioning system has broken down. Support will be forthcom- ing from the World Bank National Agricultural and Livestock Research Project, Credit No. 1970TA. The TCLSB has HVI equipment at its laboratory in Dar es Salaam which is used for grading and classing commercial cotton lint. Uzbekistan The fiber test methods used in Uzbekistan provide reliable data but are slow and require a great deal of operator skill and judgment, introducing operator bias. The Plant Breeding and Seed Production Institute has a Shirley small scale spinning line which needs reconditioning. Thus the number and range of tests that can be conducted is severely limited, making it difficult for plant breeders to maintain quality standards in a program with major emphasis on earliness. Limitations in spinning and fiber test facilities at sub-stations necessitates quality assessment using traditional, subjective, hand pulling methods. Agronomy Good agronomic practices are the key to successful crop production. This is a rule for any crop, but it is especially true for cotton. Of course a good variety, adapted to a given envi- ronment, is needed to start with, but it will only produce a satisfactory yield, if good crop man- agement is performed. Cotton is a crop that has to be really 'tamed' from A to Z to achieve its optimum production potential . Cotton is produced in the study countries on farms that vary from large to very small- scale under irrigated to rainfed conditions, with assured and non assured rainfall. These condi- tions affect the potential yields in the different areas. Moreover, there are major differences in cropping practices which are factors to be considered in explaining the yield differences. Type of Crop With the exceptions of northeast Brazil and northern Peru where perennial varieties are maintained for at least four years in the same fields cotton, a perennial plant, is grown as an an- nual. Ratoon cotton is grown in some countries but is generally discouraged because of its influ- ence in pests and diseases. Perennial and ratoon cotton crops are generally grown with minimal labor and inputs in non assured rainfall areas, generally giving poor yields. Influence of the Climate and Management Within the study countries cotton is cultivated under various conditions: Technical Issues 67 Entirely rainfed: Tanzania, Mali, Brazil Partially rainfed: India, China Entirely irrigated: Uzbekistan, Pakistan, Mexico, Egypt A valid comparison between the yields of the study countries is impossible without good information on the actual cropping pattern. In most cases, this was not forthcoming. The majority of the crop produced in Brazil comes from rainfed, annual cotton. The perennial cotton in the North East has been in decline in recent years and has a very limited im- pact on the total production. The main factor influencing the future of cotton in Brazil is the trend away from the traditional areas in the southeast of the country to large scale, mechanized production in the west. The situation in North West China (Xinjiang) and in Uzbekistan is rather similar with the temperature at the beginning and at the end of the season playing a key role: * low temperatures in early spring and early autumn, impose a very drastic limitation on the crop duration; - cotton can only grow where irrigation is available; * in June, the temperature rises rapidly. To adapt to these very drastic climatic conditions, the breeders selected determinate, short duration, cluster type varieties, that are able to adapt to this sudden rise of temperature, set the blooms in three weeks and mature the crop before frost. With this type of variety, no com- pensation for early crop loss is possible. In the Yellow River Valley of Exhibit 2.3: Cropping Patterns of the Yellow River Valley China, the crop duration is a bit longer in China than in Xinjiang. The varieties planted CROP CALENDAR are not determinate and are able to CORTHERMCOTTONBELT bloom during a longer period and hence to compensate for incidental boll C OPS O N 0 J F M A M J J A S O N shedding. To facilitate early planting WHEAT SPRING ---- --U in order to produce early blooming and WINTER boll set with an extended blooming COTTON period, farmers use plastic mulch to sS IG:tI . _ _ _ _ _ _ cover the beds after seeding (Fig. 2.3). SUMMER Vegetative growth is usually inter- rupted in autumn by frost and in addi- MAIZE SPRING tion, farmers need to get the cotton SSPUMMEFR crop off the land to establish wheat. SOTEAHS Cotton plants are pulled and stacked SPRING when about two thirds of the crop has 54MMER 1101111111111111 been harvested, the remaining bolls being picked as they open. The resultant cotton is trashy and immature. In the Yangtze River Valley there is no temperature limitation and the crop duration is longer so the practice of pulling the plants before they are completely harvested is not necessary. However, it is limited by the fact that the farmers need the land to plant another crop (rice, wheat). In this area many farmers produce cotton seedlings in pots in nurseries, so that when the 68 Cotton Production Prospects for the Next Decade wheat crop is harvested, the seedlings are ready to transplant into the wheat stubble. This en- ables the wheat to mature and still permits adequate time for the cotton crop to mature. In India, agroclimatic conditions vary considerably in differenit parts of the country and even in the same area. This multitude of different situations created by this diversity is difficult to understand without detailed cropping calendars. There are numerous varieties and types of crop, from high yielding Fl hybrids to 'Desi' cotton. Long staple production either from Hybrids or G. barbadense is quite substantial and essentially 'organic'. All kinds of cropping pattern, from completely irrigated crops to crops grown with non-assured rainfall, are present. This ex- plains the big diversity in varieties, crop management and the low national average yield. Overall farming conditions are good but inputs vary from very high in the high yielding irrigated and assured rain fall areas to nil in the very low yielding locations with scanty rainfall . Mali is very similar to Tanzania in term of climate and soils. The crop depends only on rain and is planted mainly on small and medium sized farms. The big difference between the two countries is in the organization of the sub-sectors. Mali has real leadership in term of man- agement with excellent links between research, extension and marketing, especially in term of varieties. This has allowed a steady increase in area and production for the last three decades. Tanzania lacks this leadership. Cotton production in Mexico is almost entirely irrigated. The climate, soils and water ensure high yields of consistent quality but production has declined because government policies have favored food crops, giving them a competitive advantage. In Pakistan cotton is an irrigated crop cultivated by large scale farmers and smallhold- ers. The increase in production has been due to a tremendous intensification effort in which re- search has played a very important role. Farmers have shown an eagerness to adopt new tech- niques. The recent problems created by a cotton leaf curl virus have created a certain reduction in acreage and in production. Even though cotton is grown in Tanzania as an annual, rainfed crop, yields are rather poor and well below the production potential of the varieties planted, due to a number of diffi- culties in the organization of the sub-sector. If farmers obtain a fair price for their cotton and if good seeds, inputs and farm equipment become available in a timely manner at a reasonable price and the sub sector has an efficient, logical organization including good leadership, the country can be expected to regain and even increase its production quickly. The premium price which Tanzania enjoyed for its cotton could also be regained on the world market, but only with reorganization of the sub-sector with emphasis on cotton quality. In Uzbekistan, cotton is entirely irrigated due to the climatic conditions prevailing dur- ing the cotton season and is cultivated in big state (sovkhoz) and collective (kolkhoz) farms. The recent political changes are likely to lead to part of these big units being split into smaller units. It will be interesting to follow this evolution in term of production, the availability of inputs and prices. Greater attention is being paid to the production of food crops, bringing about a reduc- tion in the cotton area. The likely impact of this is not yet clear. This may not necessarily lead to a reduction in production if farmers receive a good price for their cotton. Technical Issues 69 Crop Establishment Successful cotton production depends on establishing a uniform stand of vigorous plants at the optimum planting time. Delayed planting invariably leads to significant reductions in yield. Many factors can hamper crop establishment but climate and soil temperatures are among the most important. Optimum soil temperature conditions have been established in many coun- tries but in countries with more extreme climates, the season is often too short to allow any flexibility in planting time. In north China, soil temperatures at planting time are too low to allow quick germination and normal seedling growth. The use of plastic mulch has become popular to overcome this problem, permitting planting to take place about three weeks earlier than would be possible without the mulch. More than 20 percent of the crop is established using this technique. This technique enables the season to be extended but in a given location, there is a complete lack of homogeneity in the stage of plant development between fields with and without plastic mulch. Insect pests, particularly Aphids, Aphis gossypii and bollworm, Helicoverpa armigera are pro- vided with host plants over a prolonged period, settling and developing on the older plants and then migrating onto the younger plants. Plants are able to compensate for early crop loss but the delayed maturity prolongs the crop cycle, thus extending the period of exposure to insect pests and it could also lead to crop losses caused by early frost. Another technique developed in north China to permit earlier cotton planting is to sow the cottonseed between the rows of wheat before it is harvested. Wheat is sown in strips, leaving free rows at regular intervals for cottonseed to be sown. This has interesting ramifications: * beneficial insect populations increase on wheat aphids and then migrate to cotton seedlings; * the cotton seedlings are provided with a protected microclimate; * earlier planting extends the cropping period This technique has also important draw backs: * the tight cropping sequence precludes normal land preparation which would destroy over- wintering bollworm H armigera, pupae. Since the introduction of the new intercropping technique, the bollworm population has increased dramatically, including increased damage to wheat in the spring; * the extended cotton season provides host plants for an additional bollworm generation, pro- viding a potential for a bigger infestation for the next year. Pakistan experiences very hot winds which hinder pollen germination, causing young bolls to shed. When this occurs late in the season, it can lead to young flowers becoming desic- cated and mummifying onto the plant. Heat tolerant varieties have solved this problem. Late season varieties come into flower as the monsoon season approaches, bringing higher humidity and minimizing the problem. Early season pest damage to young seedling delays fruit setting, decreasing the yield potential, particularly when there is a climatic limitation to the season. When there is no such limitation, the protracted season extends the period of exposure to insect pests, leading to re- duced yields and quality. Thrips damage seedlings in Egypt and Pakistan. The damage reduces seedling internode elongation and causes shedding of early buds, leading to a loss of fruiting positions on the bot- 70 Cotton Production Prospects for the Next Decade tom of the plant. Even though the plants may compensate for these losses, they cause a protrac- tion of the cotton season. The introduction of upland cotton to commercial production in Egypt would exacerbate this problem since G. hirsutum is more susceptible to thrips and bollworm than G. barbadense. Importance of Fertilization Fertilization is a very important means of intensifying crop production and of preventing soil degradation but information on this issue is generally deficient. In China, the application of organic fertilizers has been the rule for decades. However, this practice seems to be declining because of limited traditional sources such as cattle manure, home compost and complementary products, at least for application on part of the land. In Mali, Pakistan and India, animal manure is also quite widely used by small and medium scale farms but chemical fertilization is, nevertheless, widely applied. Research is quite well organized to determine which macro and minor elements are needed but some areas, particularly Tanzania, require further study and extension effort. Among the chemical fertilizers, nitrogen is most widely used for many reasons, not least, price and availability. Farmers appreciate the rapid response to N in cotton fields, the flush green crop is frequently seen as an indication of a good production potential. In fact N should be used with caution. Excessive N in the presence of abundant water early in the season can lead to delayed flowering and an excessively vegetative plant, creating problems with crop protection later in the season. When crop duration is limited by climate in the same way as the US rainfed crop and as it is in the case of Mali, Tanzania, north and northwest China and Uzbekistan, studies indicate that the plant requires adequate but not excessive supplies of N during the seedling stage and up to blooming. At least part if not all N fertilizer should be applied at the time of sowing and the rest before blooming. Unfortunately a balanced application is very seldom the case. N deficiency prior to blooming restricts plant growth and prevents the development of an adequate plant framework to carry a good crop. On the other hand, excessive late application of N induces late vegetative development at the expense of fruit production and boll development. The situation outlined above applies to Pakistan. Very little N is applied at planting, the first application of Urea frequently being made at the time of first irrigation. Farmers apply one bag of Urea every other irrigation or even sometimes at each irrigation from 40 days onwards. The internode development of the young seedling is limited by delayed first irrigation and insuf- ficient available N. After the first irrigation when there is excess N and frequent watering, there is typically excessive vegetative development. The fruiting bodies at the bottom of the plants receive insufficient light and shed or rot due to an excess of humidity inside too dense a canopy. The plants then compensate but maturity is delayed and plants get still bigger. Under these conditions wheat which normally follows cotton is planted late or not planted at all and the pro- tracted cotton season creates favorable condition for late season pest development, particularly for aphids, whitefly and bollworm, leading to reduced yield and poor quality lint. In North China, late applications of N fertilizer delay plant senescence and increase the proportion of post frost harvest and hence decrease lint quality and its commercial value. In Mali the cotton compound fertilizer (N.P.K.S.B) is mainly applied at the earliest 3 to 4 weeks after planting at 150kg/ha. Additional Urea is recommended at 50kg/ha at the start of flowering. Organic manure is recommended at 8-10 tons/ha every three years. Here again the Technical Issues 71 duration of the crop is limited by the length of the rainy season, and the delayed application of fertilizer could reduce the crop potential. It would certainly be of interest to consider applying the full fertilizer treatment at planting. However, this could be risky under insecure rainfed conditions. In many countries, farmers associate the early application of fertilizers, especially N with excessive weed growth. Even if this were the case, young seedling require favorable con- ditions for rapid, productive growth in order to compete with weeds. Starving the cotton crop is not an effective means of weed control. Plant growth regulators and terminating chemicals are not widely used. Mechanical har- vesting is fairly common in Uzbekistan but there are problems with the availability of foreign exchange to procure appropriate defoliants. Furthermore, two organophosphate defoliants which are popular in other countries where mechanical harvesting is practiced, were banned because of the risk to human and animal health. Farmers are left with one of the original defoliants, Man- ganese chlorate, as the only choice. Conservation Tillage The early development of cotton is slow and consequently, there is a considerable time lapse before the plant canopy provides any form of protection. During this period, soil is ex- posed to the erosive forces of rain and water losses as a result of run-off can be considerable. This applies particularly to rainfed cotton. A great deal of work is going on the USA on reduced tillage systems (Bogusch and Supak, 1995). This may include the use of cover crops which has some similarity to relay cropped wheat and cotton in China. However, this protects the soil but it also protects any insect pests that are pupating in the soil. A considerable amount of research has been conducted in West, East and Central Africa on tied ridging, also known as dike cultivation. In Texas, this is being combined with irrigation in what is known as low energy precision irrigation application (Lege et al, 1995). In these sys- tems, ties or dikes are constructed across the furrow at about four meter intervals, depending on the slope, to form a series of basins which hold water, reducing run-off and increasing infiltra- tion. Under rainfed conditions, this increases the supply of water in the soil while in irrigated cotton, it reduces the amount of water required per irrigation. Potholing is a second water conservation strategy which was studied in Zimbabwe. This involved growing cotton on beds with two rows to a bed. Small holes are cut at intervals along the top of the bed between the rows of cotton to hold water and increase infiltration. The use of tied ridging and potholing, either separately or in combination, can result in a considerable re- duction in run-off and an increase in amount of water that infiltrates the soil and becomes avail- able to the plant. This can have a significant impact on yields in a dry year but may have little effect in a wet year. However, the appropriateness of these techniques depends on the soil type and the pattern of rainfall. Evaporation losses can be reduced significantly by plowing at the end of the rainy season after the crop has been harvested instead of at the beginning of the season before planting. This has the effect of increasing the water reserve in the soil for use as the crop develops. Infiltration rates can be improved by a light cultivation after rain to break any crust that may have formed in order to improve water infiltration during the next wet period. 72 Cotton Production Prospects for the Next Decade Irrigation and Drainage Irrigation can increase cotton production in the world either by enabling the crop to be grown in arid regions where it would otherwise be impossible or by increasing yields with sup- plementary irrigation under rainfed conditions. It also has the potential to degrade the environ- ment, both on and off the farm. Degradation can limit or reduce production directly by damaging resources used in production while the threat of degradation can reduce production indirectly by legislation or international agreements aimed at its prevention. In the nine countries of the study 61 percent of the area and 80 percent of the production of cotton is irrigated, compared with 53 percent and 73 percent respectively for the world (Hearn 1995). Irrigated cotton is not uniformly distributed around the globe but varies among climatic regions. A broad belt of irrigated cotton extends from Spain in the west to the Xinjiang province of China in the east. These regions have Mediterranean or desert or near desert climates, and cot- ton is fully irrigated without significant rainfall during the growing season. This type of produc- tion is represented in this study by Egypt, Uzbekistan, Pakistan, the northern zone of India, and Xinjiang province of China and Mexico. By contrast, in Central and South America, in Africa south of the Sahara, and in SE Asia cotton is almost entirely rainfed. These are tropical and subtropical summer rainfall areas. In this study Brazil, Mali and Tanzania represent this type of production. Between these extremes cotton is grown with varying amounts of supplementary irriga- tion in semi-arid and humid regions. China irrigates most of the co-ton grown in the east (Yellow River and Yangtse valleys) despite a relatively humid climate, 75 percent according to Bell & Gillham (1989), 95 percent according to ICAC (1993). In India 13 percent of the crop in the cen- tral region and 18 percent in the southern region receives supplementary irrigation. Not unexpectedly the higher the proportion of the crop irrigated in a country the heavier is the yield. On a global basis the mean yields of rainfed and irrigated cotton are 391 and 854 kg lint per ha respectively (Hearn 1995). This is reflected in the yields in the study countries. However the higher yield associated with irrigation cannot be attributed to irrigation alone. Irri- gated crops usually receive heavier technological inputs such as fertilizer and pesticides because under these conditions, inputs, particularly fertilizers, are more efficient in raising yields than under rainfed conditions. Irrigation is of major importance in cotton production in six out of the nine countries in study: China, Egypt, India, Mexico, Pakistan and Uzbekistan. Brazil has a small area of irrigated cotton with plans for more. Irrigation can be characterized not only by its extent, which is the percentage of the area of cotton irrigated, but also by the dependence on irrigation, which is the degree to which rainfall supplements irrigation. Both extent and dependence vary amongst the six countries as shown in Table 2.9. Technical Issues 73 Table 2.9: Irrigation Extent and Dependence of Six Countries Country region/zone rainfall (mm) extent dependence* during season % irrigated Egypt lower 0 100 I middle <10 100 I upper <20 100 Uzbekistan 30 - 70 100 I Pakistan 100 - 200 100 I+R Mexico 25 - 2000 84 - 95 I and I+R China NW - Xinjiang 0 - 200 100 I N - Yellow R 500 - 700 75 - 95 R+I S - Yangtse R 700 - 1000 75 - 95 R+I India north 200 - 400 100 I+R central 800 - 1200 29 - 40 R+I south 400 - 1000 29 - 40 R+I * I irrigation with no or negligible rainfall during season. I+R irrigation supplies most of crop water requirements but rainfall makes a significant contribution. R+l rainfall supplies most of crop water requirements but some crops receive supplementary irrigation. Irrigation Practices Water Suppiy The major source of irrigation water in all countries in the study is rivers regulated by reservoirs, fed to farms via canals. In Uzbekistan, Pakistan, northern India and NW China rivers are fed by melting of winter snows, which results in seasonal variation in supply. By contrast in Egypt the Nile is fed by rainfall in tropical regions beyond the southern border. Groundwater from bores (tube wells) is a lesser but important source of supply in several countries. This is of particular importance in India and Pakistan, especially to increase the cropping intensity. In Pakistan 31.0 percent of all irrigation water in the cotton season is drawn from wells, mainly to supplement canal water at critical times. Supplementary irrigation of rainfed crops in India and China is mainly with well water, except for China's Yellow River area where well water and ca- nal water are equally important and conjunctively used. Three countries report that there is potential to increase the supply of irrigation water. In Pakistan some of the Indus River water still reaches the ocean, and in part could be stored with new dams increasing the irrigated area by 10 percent (1.6 M ha) but this development is not ex- pected in the next decade. In NW China production could be increased by diverting more of the snow melt from the Tsien Shan mountains eastwards. Brazil, currently with negligible irrigated production, will grow cotton as one of the crops in a project to irrigate one million ha in the Sententrional region. Uzbekistan reports that the amount of water and land devoted to cotton production is being reduced in order to increase the amount of water available to the Aral Sea and for production of food and other crops. In all countries there is the potential to use water more efficiently which would effectively increase the supply for cotton production. However, in China's Yellow River Valley there is a shortage of water for irrigation resulting from falling groundwater tables and sedimentation of wells. 74 Cotton Production Prospects for the Next Decade In Egypt, Pakistan, India and Uzbekistan the canal systems were designed up to 100 years ago before modem knowledge of the actual crop water requirements, and in some cases, when cropping intensities (percentage of area cropped in a year) were only half or one third of current levels. Such systems may therefore be inadequate for current needs. They operate on the rigid 'turn' system whereby water is only available in the distributor canal that supplies a group of farms on one day a week so that all the users on one canal take turns with users on other ca- nals in using the water. Consequently irrigation is described as supply driven, the implications of which will be discussed later. Methods of Irrigation Surface irrigation in its various forms is the commonest method of irrigation in the countries in this study, which faithfully reflects the global scene where 94 percent of cotton is irrigated by surface methods (Hearn 1995). Furrow irrigation is used exclusively in Uzbekistan and Mexico, and the Yellow River region of China. Egypt uses the 'hawwal' system in which the ridges are flooded to half their depth. The Yangtse region of China uses flood and check systems, Pakistan and India use a mixture of flood and furrow. There is very limited sprinkler irrigation in China and India, and similarly limited drip irrigation in Uzbekistan. In China, 27 percent of cotton irrigated from wells utilizes thin, hard, buried plastic tubes that reduce water use by 20-30 percent. These reticulated systems are not compatible with gravity driven canal systems in these countries, and their cost makes them uneconomic at current yield levels. Frequency. Number, Timing & Amount The country reports describe irrigation practices in terms of the number of times crops are irrigated during a season (4 countries reporting) and/or the frequency of irrigation in terms of days between irrigations (5 countries reporting), and the volume of water used per season (5 countries reporting). Not surprisingly there is a very wide range, as these data reflect variation in soil water holding capacity and evaporative demand, both of which vary among and within countries. The data provide good descriptions of what farmers do, but not why they do it, and are therefore inadequate for comparing one country with another, or for evaluating the practices in a country. The data describe the results of the tactical decision making at a farm level, but do not tell us anything about how farmers go about the business of deciding when to irrigate. There are two aspects to sound practice - getting the timing right and getting the amount of water right. Data on crop water requirements based on evaporative demand and soil water holding capacity are needed in order to: 1. evaluate application and conveyancy efficiency (how much of the water available is used in evapotranspiration (ET)), 2. evaluate agronomic water use efficiency of the crops (kg of lint or seed cotton per volu- metric unit of water used in ET), 3. evaluate the risks of salinity and rising water tables, 4. compare countries and regions. In the canal systems of Pakistan, India and Egypt the decision to irrigate is supply driven - that is, the time to irrigate is determined by when water is available in the canal, which is usu- ally once a week on a turn system. A similar supply driven system may prevail in Uzbekistan, though the report describes the decision making as 'empirical' meaning it is based on the experi- ence of the operator who subjectively evaluates the state of the crop and soil. The reports for Mexico and the Yangtse area of China refer to decision systems or programs developed by re- Technical Issues 75 search, but do not describe their technical or scientific content, nor the extent of their adoption. In Uzbekistan a computer-based scheduling system has been developed and tested that not only determines when each field should be irrigated, but it also estimates the amount of water needed for each field and collates the requirements for all the fields supplied by one canal so that the engineer responsible knows how much water to release into the canal for the next 10 days. There is a proposal to extend this system from one district to the whole country with the support of the World Bank. The rainfed crops in the Yellow River Valley of China only need supplementary irrigation in spring and early summer while those of the Yangtse River Valley need it in mid summer (July and August). Evaluation of Irrigation Practices It has been suggested that supply driven systems cause over-irrigation, as crops may be irrigated whenever water is available in the canal whether they need it or not. However over- irrigation can only occur on a season long basis if supply exceeds demand for the whole season, which is not the case. Supply driven systems have the potential for over-irrigation early in the season, when supply is greater than demand, and for under-irrigation mid and late season when supply is less than demand. Whether or not such over- and under-irrigation actually occurs can- not be determined from the information given in the reports. Both over- and under-irrigation will reduce yields. Too frequent irrigation early in the season promotes vegetative growth, Table 2.10: Crop Water Requirements Based on Evaporative Demand, Water Applied and Yield Country, ET for Rainfall Deficit for Water Yield Appi WUE' Climate season for season season applied lint ication kg /ha and Region mm mm mm mm kg/ha effic- /mm lI il_ _iency Arid Climates Egypt Lower 969 12 957 619 920 1.55 0.95 Egypt Middle 1044 7 1037 762 945 1.36 0.91 Egypt Upper 1390 0 1390 1071 923 1.30 0.66 Uzbekistan North & west 824 96 729 1370 830 0.53 1.01 ,Uzbekistan South & east 1232 35 1197 2500 830 0.49 0.67 IChina North west 860 136 724 675 930 1.07 1.08 Semi-arid Climates Pakistan I 826 | 213 613 1102 | 647 0.56 0.78 India INorth 817 | 269 | 548 | 220 | 400 | 2.49 | 0.49 Humid Climates India Central 813 973 -160 200 120 - 0.15 India South 1049 598 451 756 275 0.60 0.26 China Yellow R 654 671 -16 ? 462 ? 0.71 China Yangtse R 710 790 -80 169 903 1.27 7WUE Plant Water Use Efficiency pushing the balance between vegetative and reproductive growth in favor of vegetative growth and resulting in rank crops with concomitant heavy boll shedding, reduced yields, problems with pest control, boll rot and defoliation. Under-irrigation in mid and late season results in water stress that reduces yields. In this situation, well water can provide a valuable supplement. 76 Cotton Production Prospects for the Next Decade Although data on crop water requirements based on evaporative demand are lacking from the country reports, suitable data are available from other sources (FAO 1987, HMSO 1977, pers comm June McMahon, pers comm Wayne Meyers), and are included in Table 2.10 together with the seasonal amounts of water applied and yields from the country reports. Seasonal ET ranges from 654 mm in the Yellow River region of China to 1390 mm in upper Egypt. Differences among regions mainly reflect differences in the amount of advective energy (energy in hot dry winds) available to the crops and the length of the season. Rain falling during the cotton season ranges from nil in upper Egypt to nearly 1000 mm in the central zone of India. The deficit for the season is crop evapotranspiration less rainfall. For a particular field, run-off should be included in the water balances. The water applied is the amount given in, or calculated from, the country report. As far as can be judged from the reports these are the amounts delivered to the farm gate, though it is not always clear whether it is the amount at the canal head or the farm gate. Therefore these amounts may not represent the same entity for each country, and comparisons should be made with caution. The amounts reported are in various units and have been converted to mm. (It is understood that the data in the China report is cu m per ha, not mm.) For Pakistan the water applied is the mean for all summer crops calculated from water available at the farm gate (in million acre feet) for the whole country and the area of summer crops in ha. In Uzbekistan the figure in the table is the mean for the country, but in some regions almost 3 times as much water is used (36000 cu m per ha, or 3600 mm) which could include excessive water for leaching salts. The last two columns of the table are attempts at a technical evaluation of irrigation practices. Because of the qualification already made they should be accepted with caution. Application efficiency is the ratio of evapotranspiration deficit to water delivered to the farm. W'UE is the yield of lint per ha per mm of water used in evapotranspiration. Engineering Efficiency The application efficiency values in Table 2.10 estimate how efficiently water delivered to the farm gate is used in meeting the evapotranspiration requirements. They take account of losses from intra-farm channels and by deep drainage from the fields, but not losses during con- veyance to the farm gate. Loss by deep drainage may include water used to leach accumulated salts to combat salinity. For Egypt, north west China and north India, the application efficiency apparently ex- ceeds unity, which means the water applied was less than the deficit. This result indicates that irrigation was not sufficient to meet the deficit, or the water table is close enough to the surface for crops to draw water from it (probably true for Egypt), or ET for the season is over-estimated. In Central India and both regions in eastern China the deficit for the season is negative, which means that the rainfall exceeded evapotranspiration for the season. This does not mean crops do not need or respond to irrigation because there may be periods of deficit during the sea- son. However, it does mean that application efficiency cannot be calculated for the season. Although application efficiency does not take account of losses during conveyance in the inter-farm canal system, some information on this topic can be gleaned from some country re- ports. In Uzbekistan, if 13700 cu m per ha is the amount at the farm gate and 33000 cu m per ha is the amount at the canal head (in the report 54-58 cu km is said to be used to irrigate 1.7 M ha Technical Issues 77 of cotton), then over 60 percent is lost in the inter-farm canals alone, which is not consistent with the 36 percent reported in the text as lost from both inter- and intra-farm canals. However, it is more likely that 54-58 cu km is the amount used to irrigate all land (4.2 M ha), in which case the 36 percent loss is consistent with 13700 cu m per ha delivered to the farm, and up to 26000 cu m per ha in some regions is lost or used for winter leaching of salts. In Pakistan 70 percent of the water at the canal head is delivered to the farm, implying a loss during conveyance of 30 percent. Some of the conveyancy losses are evaporation but most are seepage from canals into the groundwater which contribute to rising water tables. Agronomic Efficiency The term water use efficiency (WUE) is used in various ways (Hearn 1995): 1. physiological WUE - the ratio between the rates of photosynthesis and transpiration gives the amount of C02 fixed per unit of water transpired over a short time span (1 day or less). 2. plant WUE - the yield (biological or agronomic) produced in a season per unit of water transpired giving the biological WUE or agronomic WUE respectively of the plants. It measures how efficiently plants use the water that passes through them. 3. crop WUE - the amount of agronomic yield produced in a season per unit of evapo- transpiration, thus taking account of soil evaporation (the E of ET) as well as crop transpiration. It measures how efficiently crops use the water for evapotranspiration. 4. field WUE - the increase in agronomic yield produced by irrigation per unit of water pumped or diverted for irrigation, thus taking account of engineering irrigation effi- ciency (how much of the water released or pumped for irrigation is used in ET). Any calculations to establish WUE figures are based on the assumption that all biotic and abiotic crop production factors are optimally managed. This study focuses on crop WUE which is statistically estimated in Table 2.10. Carbon dioxide and water vapor exchange are linked by sharing a common diffusive pathway through the stomata, and both are driven by solar radiation. It might therefore be expected that the amount of C02 fixed per unit of water transpired (physiological WUE) should be a unique constant for a crop, and consequently that the crop WUE might also be constant. However, neither physiological WUE nor crop WUE are unique constants because there is one source of energy for photosynthesis (solar) and two sources for transpiration (solar and advection). The proportion of advective to solar energy is not constant but varies be- tween environments, being high in desert climates such as upper Egypt and Uzbekistan and low in humid climates such as eastern China and southern India. Consequently crop WUE is lower in desert climates than in humid climates, all else being equal. Irrigation practices influence varia- tion in soil evaporation (E) as a proportion of ET, also contributing to variation in crop WUE. The values in crop WUE in the table show a wide variation, some of it attributable to variation in advection and soil evaporation, but most are associated with other factors affecting yields such as poor crop and poor management. All values fall short of those obtained in fully controlled research with intensively irrigated crops for which values ranges between 2.27 and 3.76 kg lint per ha per mm (Hearn 1995). In Australia values of 2.25 kg lint per ha per mm are common for well managed commercial crops. 78 Cotton Production Prospects for the Next Decade Sustainability Cotton production is not sustainable when it depletes or degrades non-renewable re- sources, either those used in cotton production, or resources affected by cotton production. The potential of irrigation to have a major impact on the environment has been noted, but the issue has not been adequately addressed in the country reports. Three major environmental issues are involved: (i) salinity and rising water tables, (ii) contamination of groundwater, and (iii) degra- dation of wet lands and lakes. Salinity and Rising Water Tables Salinity is inevitably a threat where irrigation plus rainfall is less than the evaporative demand. All irrigation water, even the best quality, contains some salts which accumulate in the soil if not leached out. If irrigation plus rainfall exceeds evaporative demand as usually occurs in humid regions, there is a net downward movement of water through the profile and salts added by irrigation are leached. In arid regions the threat becomes a reality. In past millennia, salinity has caused the demise of irrigation systems and the civilizations dependent on them. The extent to which cotton production is affected or threatened globally by salinity is not known. Shalhevet & Kamburov (1976) report that more than half the irrigated area in 24 major irrigation countries is affected by salinity. Without exception, all the countries with desert and Mediterranean climates in the broad belt of irrigated cotton that stretches from Spain to central Asia, and those with similar climates in the west of North and South America, have salinity problems. Egypt, Pakistan, the northern zone of India, Uzbekistan and NW China fall in this belt and all mention salinity problems in their reports. In Uzbekistan 50 percent of the irrigated area is affected by salinity, with 20 percent described as medium or high. In Pakistan 15 percent of the irrigated area is affected. Brazil also reports salinity problems in its small irrigated crop. Saline soil or saline irrigation water reduces the availability of soil water to the crop. Its effect on crop growth is, therefore, similar to severe water deficit. In many crops salinity also has a toxic effect but cotton is able to exclude the sodium ion. Cotton is one of the most salt- tolerant field crops; only barley is marginally more tolerant (Hoffman et al 1983). Herein lies a danger; salinity may be allowed to get worse before action is taken. Varietal differences in tol- erance to salinity have been reported (Fowler 1986) and varieties with increased salt tolerance have been bred in Uzbekistan. However. such varieties will only gain time for a few years until salt levels increase further, unless a stable, acceptable soil salinity state is reached. Where salinity is an inevitable hazard, the primary curative and preventative solution is to ensure a net downward flow of water through the root zone by applying additional irrigation, with adequate drainage to remove the excess where there is a risk of raising the water table. These are primarily engineering, not agronomic issues, though the extra water needed for leaching reduces the field WUE. Disposal of saline drainage water is a concomitant problem. Return to rivers and water courses creates environmental problems. The options are discharge into the ocean (e.g. Pakistan), into evaporation basins (e.g. Australia) which involves sacrificing land, or recycling saline water to irrigate more tolerant crops. China, Egypt and Uzbekistan specifically mention extra water requirements for leaching, the last two quantitatively. Rising water tables associated with over-irrigation exacerbate the salinity problem by causing secondary salinisation. Rising water tables are in turn exacerbated by the need periodi- cally to apply irrigation in excess of the ET requirement in order to leach salts out of the pro- file. The risk of rising water tables can be reduced with improved technology to schedule and Technical Issues 79 apply water in order to avoid excessive irrigation. Fifty percent of the irrigated area of Uzbeki- stan is affected by shallow water tables resulting from over-irrigation and leaching for salinity control. Drainage is an urgent priority. In Pakistan 10 percent of the summer cropped irrigated land is still affected by shallow water tables, but 6 M ha have been reclaimed in the last 33 years with a series of 50 Salinity Control and Reclamation Projects (SCARPs) in which 20,000 verti- cal drains (tube wells) were installed and 10,000 km of drains were excavated. Egypt, the northern zone of India, and NW China also have problems with shallow water tables. Egypt has a national drainage scheme which is being implemented with assistance from the World Bank. In the Yellow River and Yangtse River Valleys of China drainage is required not only for salin- ity control but also because heavy rainfall causes flooding, shallow water tables and water log- ging. Elsewhere, drainage appears to be generally adequate in China, Egypt and Pakistan, but is described as poor in Uzbekistan and Mexico. Contamination of Groundwater and Rivers Cotton production carries a significant risk for contaminating groundwater and rivers with nutrients, salt and pesticides, because it is often a heavy user of agricultural chemicals. Ir- rigation in excess of ET requirements, and leaching for salinity management increase the risk of groundwater pollution. The risk to water courses is related to discharge of contaminated runoff and drainage water. More efficient irrigation to minimize water use will reduce the risk while leaching for salinity management should be accompanied by effective drainage. The risk of run- off in irrigated production, can be reduced by engineering work. Engineering solutions for dealing with drainage water were discussed in the previous section. Degradation of Wetlands and Lakes Diversion of water from a river for irrigation, if not replenished, deprives ecosystems downstream of water, resulting in their degradation. To put this into perspective, cotton pro- duction only occupies 7.3 percent of the world's irrigated land, and uses a smaller fraction of the water resources but probably contributes much more to the world economy. For example in Australia, cotton uses only 15 percent of the irrigation water but produces 35 percent of the ex- port revenue generated by irrigation. These facts should be taken into account in the allocation of water resources to cotton production. If water supplies for cotton are restricted as a result of political action, using water more efficiently becomes of even greater importance. It is a major issue in Central Asia where there has been a massive reduction in the area of the Aral Sea (Musaev 1993, Perara 1993), to which the Uzbekistan country report gives due prominence. Proposals for the Improvement of Irrigation Efficiency Despite the potential of irrigation to increase production on one hand and to degrade the environment and reduce production on the other, and despite the mention in the country reports of salinity and rising water tables as a result of irrigation, there is relatively little reference in the country reports in the challenges and recommendations, or in the problem and objective trees3, to irrigation and its associated problems, with one exception, Uzbekistan. There are several rea- sons why other countries may not have done this in their reports: There is not enough information to determnine which, if any, of these explanations ap- plies in any one country. However four related challenges common to most countries warrant 3Refers to Problem and Objective Trees in Country Reports. 80 Cotton Production Prospects for the Next Decade emphasis: (i) modifying the operation of canal systems, (ii) introduction of new irrigation tech- nology, (iii) introduction of irrigation scheduling and (iv) pricing of irrigation water. Modifying Old Systems Modification of old, large canal systems needs to be investigated jointly by agronomists, engineers and economists. With myriads of small farms, long lead times between the source and farm for release of water, and without on farm storage, operating large canal systems on a demand basis is not easy. It is unlikely to be possible for farmers to be able to order water on an individ- ual basis, as in Australia for example. However the possibility should be investigated of limiting flows in canals to the average demand for the stage of the season. Increased storage in dams and reservoirs may be needed to facilitate the storage of more of the early season river flows, and to match canal flows to the current requirements of crops. This would have to be accompanied by education of farmers to water crops only as needed both in respect to timing and amount. There is further potential to increase the efficiency of old systems. In view of the losses from inter- and intra-farm canals, there is scope for more concrete lining and coverage of canals. Better land leveling with sufficient gradient of between 0.5 and 3.0 percent, would result in faster irrigation with smaller volumes of water and less drainage losses. Gradient leveling could be improved by the use of laser leveling or development of simpler technology. These recommen- dations should, however, be economically justifiable in all cases. Introduction of New Technolog The opinion in most countries, apart from Uzbekistan, is that drip and sprinkler systems are neither compatible with gravity fed canal systems, nor economic at current yield levels. However drip irrigation, and similar fully reticulated precision systems, that deliver water direct to the soil at frequent intervals, have advantages for salinity and water table management, and their use should not be dismissed without being explored. Low cost, low pressure drip systems are being developed (Miller 1990). The use in China of thin hard buried plastic tubes for irriga- tion from wells is worth investigation with view to its use in other countries. Drip irrigation, with its precise application of small controlled quantities of water, has great potential for preventing the over-irrigation that causes the risk of salinity, rising water ta- bles, contamination of groundwater, and downstream ecological degradation, particularly on light-textured soils where excessive percolation of drainage water into the groundwater table oc- curs with conventional methods. However, drip irrigation systems are costly so economic con- siderations also need to be considered. Drip irrigation makes it much easier to keep the soil water content within the narrower limits of availability caused by salinity, and thus allows cotton to be grown on soils or with wa- ter that would otherwise be too saline (Shalhevet 1984, Mantell et al 1985, Anon 1983). Mod- erately saline water (<2000 ppm) can be used either alone or conjunctively with fresh water. The options for conjunctive use of fresh and saline water are (i) fresh water on sensitive crops, saline water on tolerant crops, (ii) blending, (iii) applying fresh and saline water alternately and (iv) applying fresh water for part of the season, preferably the early part when crops are most sensitive, and saline for the rest. Drip irrigation enables moderately saline drainage water and urban domestic wastes to be recycled, reducing requirements for fresh water (Shalhevet 1984, Afanas'ev et al 1991, Rhoades 1983, Bradford & Letty 1992, Bielorai et al 1984, Oron & Malach 1987, Papadopoulos & Stylianou 1988). Technical Issues 81 Introduction of Scheduling Irrigation scheduling is the use of objective scientific criteria for deciding when to irri- gate the crop. There are three components: current data from the crop, a data base and a knowl- edge base. It does not have to involve the use of hi-tech hardware or software but can consist of a simple 'rule of thumb' that incorporates the three components. However, scheduling by itself is not going to prevent over-irrigation unless it takes into account the amount of water applied as well as the timing. Too much water can be applied at the right time, just as easily as when irri- gation is too frequent. Noontime wilting is sometimes used as an indicator but is only applicable when water is readily available at all times, such as from tubewells in Pakistan. Research is needed into scheduling for 'turn' systems. For example, could scheduling be used to determine whether to irrigate this turn or to defer irrigation until the next? Could scheduling be used to determine the amount of water to apply? If so, techniques are needed to apply specific volumes of water onto fields of small holdings. Pricing of Irrigation Water Pricing of irrigation water is a sensitive issue. The World Bank is committed to pricing water eventually, but is feeling its way cautiously. The tenet that 'water belongs to the people' is enshrined in the culture of many countries in the study. In several countries, use of water is in- fluenced, if not controlled, by Shari's Law which prohibits the selling of water and states that water belongs to the people (Caponera, 1973). Consequently water is traditionally supplied free, as in Egypt and Uzbekistan, or with a minimal annual charge for operational costs as in Pakistan and the northern zone of India. No information is given for China, and in Mexico it is not clear if the transfer of the administration of the irrigation zones to the farmers under the government's new economic strategy will result in pricing of water. Farmers do not pay on a volume basis in any of the nine study countries. Although charging full cost of water would be unpopular, it is highly desirable in order to provide an economic incentive for farmers to use water more efficiently and adopt water con- serving practices. One possibility would be to give each farm a free allocation of water based on climatological crop water requirements and to fine farms for use of water in excess of the planned allocation. The fines could be heavy (much greater than the marginal value of the wa- ter) and strictly enforced. As is the case for scheduling, this would require a simple technology to measure the volume of water taken by each farm and an effective means of enforcement. Sev- eral metering devices are available for this purpose. Concluding Remarks on Irrigation It is clear that there is considerable scope in all the study countries to increase production of cotton, and make it more sustainable, by improving the efficiency of irrigation, even though this is only recognised in Uzbekistan. Improved agronomic efficiency (yield per unit of water used in ET) will come from raising yields, partly by improving irrigation agronomy but mainly by removing other limitations to yield, both of which require action by the farmer. Improved engineering efficiency (volume of water used in ET per unit volume of water at canal head or pumped from a bore) requires action from both the farmer and the engineer operating the system. When these improvements are achieved it will result in more production from less water, and with increased sustainability and less risk to the environment. The water saved can be used to irrigate more land to increase production further or to conserve the downstream environment. 82 Cotton Production Prospects for the Next Decade Crop Protection In general cotton production is seriously affected by insect pests and weeds in all coun- tries but detailed data on crop losses are sketchy. Worldwide losses due to these causes are esti- mated at 70,218 thousand mt, made up of 11.8 percent due to weeds, 15.4 percent due to insect pests and 10.5 percent due to diseases (Oerke et al, 1994). Thus plant diseases have had less im- pact, but there are significant exceptions, including the present problem of leaf curl virus in Pakistan and an increasing problem of Fusarium and Verticillium in soils in several countries. Although the cottonbelt in the USA covers a wide range of environmental conditions, data on crop loss estimates in the US have been included as indicative of the severity of losses caused by specific weeds, diseases and nematodes. Weed Control Cotton seedlings are very sensitive to competition, particularly during the first six weeks. Some of the weeds that are major problems in the USA are among the world's most noxious and are among the most widely reported in the cotton study reports (Box 2.5). They in- clude bermudagrass, Cynodon dactylon, purple nutsedge, Cyperus rotundus, barnyardgrass, Echinocloa crus-galli, goosegrass, Eleusine indica, johnsongrass, Sorhum halapense and com- mon purslane, Portulaca oleracea (Murray, et al, 1992). Morningglory, Ipomoea spp. is the most important US weed, causing an estimated reduction in yields across the cottonbelt of 21.1 percent in 1990. This was followed by cocklebur, Xanthium spp, which caused yield losses es- timated at 11.1 percent (Byrd, 1991). Nutsedge, Cyperus spp. is the most widespread narrow leaf weed, causing crop losses in the US estimated at 8.5 percent in 1990. However, the extent of damage caused by these weeds varied considerably in different parts of the belt. Box 2.5: The Major Weeds in the Nine Study Countries Digitaria spp. Ipomoea spp. Abutilon theophrasti Echinochloa crus-galli Portulaca spp. Chenopodium spp. Cyperus rotundus Setaria spp. Amaranthus viridis Sorghum halepensis Commelina communis Convolvulus arvensis Xanthium spp. Cynodon dactylon Trianthema spp Amaranthus retroflexus Paspalum spp. Due to the wide range in the distribution of cotton growing areas and different ecological conditions in the nine countries, regional studies would be needed to gain a full understanding of the weed situation and its economic impact. Most countries rely on cultural weed control on at least two to three occasions, for ex- ample after irrigation or rain when more weed seeds germinate. On large farms as in Uzbeki- stan, tractor cultivation is routine, but inter-row cultivations do not remove weeds within the row, and may damage the cotton roots. Delayed weeding leads to strong competition for light, water and nutrients, between weeds and young seedlings, including the rhizosphere, frequently resulting in excessive internode elongation, leggy, weak plants and loss of the bottom fruiting bodies, promoting vegetative growth. Weeding is a very labor intensive operation and labor for weeding is frequently a prob- lem in countries such as Tanzania, Mali and India because of competition with other crops. On small farms, the demand for labor over the first few weeks of plant growth limits the area that Technical Issues 83 can be effectively weeded. There are instances as in Tanzania where oxdrawn or tractor schemes prepare more land for cotton than can be weeded by traditional means. Appropriate equipment for mechanical weeding is not always available or affordable by small farmers. In Mali the local production of well adapted bullock drawn equipment is well organized and the report indicates that the yield is directly correlated with the available equip- ment per farm. This indicates that mechanical weeding has played an important role in the in- tensification of the crop, by facilitating better timing of field operations. Moreover, the avail- ability of equipment enables smallholders to pay more attention to their food crops. Use of herbicides, such as fluometuron and trifluralin is generally limited to the large farms which sometimes use a band treatment, supplemented by inter-row cultivations. The use of herbicides varies considerably between countries. The possibilities of using herbicides are understood at least at the research level, but the potential economic impact of introducing these products is not always clear. One of its main considerations for small and medium scale farmers is that even though the use of herbicides involves an investment, it would allow them to 'buy' time for other important tasks. In China, the use of herbicides is said to be increasing, with mixtures used to extend the spectrum of weeds controlled. Polythene mulch is also used to increase soil temperatures and promote early growth. Trifluralin is applied before sowing to control grasses and then cultiva- tors cover the Polythene strip which continues to act as a barrier, preventing weed germination in the intra-row. The Pakistan report discusses the development of herbicides which would need a strong extension input to create farmer awareness of the merits and demerits of these products. Farmers are accustomed to taking care of weeds when they are present in the field but the intro- duction of prophylactic measures at planting, requiring the application of a product before any weeds are present, calls for education. Post emergence application would certainly be more eas- ily understood, but this would require special equipment to prevent damage to the seedlings. Moreover, timelines in the use of post emergence products is as important as timely weeding since delayed applications would not prevent the impact of the weeds on yield. The feasibility of smallholders using herbicides is supported by data from the Cote d'lvoire in West Africa where up to 20 percent of cotton acreage is treated, mainly with post- plant - pre-emergence products, frequently mixed with a contact herbicide when weeds have grown on the ridges prior to planting. In Mali, three liters per hectare Ultra Low Volume, Con- trolled Droplet Application (ULV/CDA) pre-emergent herbicide sprays have been applied with a 'Handy' sprayer. There is no indication of the extent of this practice but it is understood that only about 10 percent of the area is treated, mainly with pre-emergence products and especially on bigger farms. Since the end of the 1993 season, herbicides have only beer, available in Mali from the private sector. The regulation of agro-chemicals needs to be considered in all its as- pects, including the evolution of this technique under prevailing conditions. This aspect is dis- cussed later in this section and in Chapter 5 on Regulatory Functions. In general little information is provided either on active ingredient or on the importance of herbicide consumption in the study country reports. The Brazil report mentions only the ac- tive ingredients applied, either alone or in mixture but gives little information on the extent of herbicide use. In neighboring Argentina, pre and post emergence herbicides are applied either by hand or mechanical sprayers but on a rather limited scale. 84 Cotton Production Prospects for the Next Decade Data are available on the active ingredients available on the market in India, but not on the importance of herbicides at the fanner level. It is obvious that in such a complex situation, due to the wide range in the distribution of cotton growing areas and different ecological condi- tions, a regional, in depth study would be needed to obtain a better image. This is true for all aspects of crop production. No mention is made of the area treated in China, even though quite a lot of detail is given regarding the interest in the use of herbicides. Basically cotton is planted in small to very small fields where mechanical (hand) weeding is the rule. Where big farms are concerned, the use of herbicides is more common when plastic films are used to allow earlier planting and in- duce earliness. Under these conditions, weed control is up to 96.0 percent and the persistence of the products is improved, especially when a mixture of active ingredients is applied. In Uzbekistan, herbicides have been used in the past but financial restrictions on inputs have curtailed the use of all types of agro-chemicals over the past few years. The main weed problem in Pakistan is created by Trianthema monogena, which if not controlled in time, creates big losses, due to its 'creeping' habit and massive production of seeds which are easily transported by irrigation water. Chemical control is performed with pre-plant products, incorporated at the time of seed bed preparation or at planting. This treatment results in a very clear increase in yield and better bottom crop production when compared with hoeing once or twice, but it is not widely applied. There is a lack of interest caused by price and ab- sence of extension. About one percent of the farmers, particularly large scale growers, use her- bicides regularly. This technique requires development where justifiable. The problem with controlling Trianthema is serious in rainy weather which does not permit tractor cultivation. Late sowing of cotton is often due to the need for the farmer to give priority to sowing and weeding food crops. This was noted in the Tanzania report, but is a feature of all small-scale farms relying on family labor. Unfortunately there are no effective post-emergence broad-leaved herbicides available to apply to cotton, yet farmers in areas of unreliable rainfall usually wait to see if a crop is established before committing time and effort to weeding. Improvement in cotton could therefore be achieved also by changes in the establishment of maize and other crops, such as use of band treatments with herbicides. Weeds are recognized as an important problem which can reduce yields significantly. However, relatively little work has been done to develop systems appropriate to the smallholders so that they can manage a larger area of cotton relative to their other crops. Transgenic Herbicide Tolerant Varieties Tremendous advances have been made over the past few years in the development of chemical and mechanical weed control methods but despite this, broadleaf weeds like morning- glory, Ipomoea spp. and cocklebur, Xanthium spp. and narrow leaf weeds like nut sedge, Cype- rus spp. continue to reduce yields and quality even where chemical control is widely practiced. Pre-emergence and pre-plant incorporated products may not work well in abnormally dry or wet weather and pre-plant incorporated products cannot be used in no-till or relay cropping situa- tions. Virtually all post emergence broadleaf herbicides require directed applications which are time consuming and can only be made effectively when the cotton seedlings are higher then the weeds (Sunderland et al. 1995). Even then, most of these products cause substantial crop injury, resulting in delayed maturity and reduced yield and quality. Technical Issues 85 The recent development of transgenic, herbicide tolerant varieties has widened the range of products available to farmers for post emergence application. BXN cotton is one of the first of these varieties to be marketed. A gene from the soil bacterium Klebsiella oazenae that pro- duces the enzyme nitrilase has been inserted in certain cotton varieties. Nitrilase restructures nitriles which are present in bromoxynil and renders the herbicide inactive. Bromoxynil (Buctryl) is an old contact herbicide that is widely used on graminaceous crops to control broad leaf weeds. When used on BXN cotton, bomoxynil effectively controls some of the worst broadleaf weeds including morningglory, Ipomoea spp., cocklebur, Xanthium spp., velvetleaf, Abutilon theophrasti, hemp sesbania, Sesbania exaltata that are resistant to the normal range of herbicides used on cotton (Murdock and Toler, 1995). Glyphosate resistance enables farmers to use this product against the persistent and difficult to control weeds such as nut sedge, Cyperus spp. and Johnsongrass, Sorghum halepensis (Wilcut, 1995). Very little has been done to enable herbicides to be used by smallholders. It is unlikely that herbicide resistant varieties will play any role in countries that have not developed the tech- nology to use herbicides but rely mainly on mechanical and hand cultivation for weed control. Diseases Table 2.11 summarizes the estimated crop losses due to various diseases across the Table 2.11: Losses Due to Diseases in the 1992 cottonbelt in the USA in 1992 total crop of USA Crop of 3,531,000 mt. 3,531 thousand metric tons. Cause of Loss '000 mt Percent Seedling Diseases 181.48 5.14 In China, estimated losses due to wilt Nematodes 114.67 3.25 diseases were about 100,000 tons of lint, with Ascochyta Blight 102.19 2.89 about 16 percent of the cotton growing areas Boll Rots 84.04 2.38 either lightly, moderately or heavily infested Verticillium 53.38 1.51 (Shen, 1985). According to Bell (1992) the Phymatotrichum 35.27 1.00 current losses worldwide due to cotton wilt are Leaf Spots 16.17 0.46 about 1.5 million bales of lint, worth more than Fusarium 12.61 0.36 US$1 billion. Fusarium wilt is estimated to Bacterial Blight 5.52 0.16 cause losses of 0.2 percent in the USA, but Total 605.33 17.14 individual fields may suffer far greater losses (Hillocks, 1992). It has been suggested that 10.0 percent of a crop may suffer wilt before yields are affected. Losses caused by leaf curl disease in Pakistan are estimated at about 30.0 percent although some estimates placed the figure as high as 38.0 percent in 1993-94 against the bench- mark production of 2.18 million mt in 1991-92. As mentioned above, control of the important diseases is primarily by host plant resis- tance (e.g. Xanthomonas) and crop rotation (e.g. Verticillium and Fusarium), but there are a number of seedling diseases which occur principally when plant growth is slow immediately af- ter germination of the seed. Seedling vigor, which is dependent on seed quality, is one of the main factors in influencing losses due to the seedling disease complex. In Uzbekistan where soil temperatures are low at the time of sowing, the effect of brown root rot necessitates the annual resowing of 230 - 330,000 hectares (i.e. about 20 percent of the area). Seedling diseases are checked in some countries by fungicidal seed and/or soil treatments. Acid delinted seed is pre- ferred where machine sowing is practiced, as this removes pathogens from the surface of the seed, although some infection can still survive under the seed coat. In China, just over 30 per- cent of the cotton area is established by transplanting seedlings, and 20 percent is sown under 86 Cotton Production Prospects for the Next Decade polythene mulch sheets. Both techniques enable early establishment of the crop and reduce the effects of seedling disease. Pakistan has a major problem with the cotton leaf curl virus disease, transmitted by whiteflies. The problem is similar to that in the Sudan in the 1920s where plant resistance has been successful, so the main approach must be by host plant resistance. However in an IPM program other aspects of disease spread must be considered including a reduction of the vector both on cotton and alternative host plants. Nematodes Several nematodes have been reported, including Meloidogyne incognita widespread in cotton areas, however, the main problems seem to be associated with inadequate rotation and the presence of wilt diseases. The toxicity of nematicides and their cost has limited the control of nematodes. In China changing to irrigated paddy fields with rice is said to reduce nematode populations in 2 - 3 years. In Egypt, Gossypium barbadense is regarded as generally resistant to nematodes. In Pakistan nematodes are not considered to do serious damage due to high soil temperatures and clay content of the soil. Yield losses due to Table 2.12: Estimated US Crop Losses Caused by Nematodes nematodes are difficult to iden- Year Loss in Bales Loss in '000 Production Loss tify when the nematodes are as- l mt '000 mt Percent sociated with diseases such as 1982 161,023 34.942 2,605 1.34 wilt. Furthermore, poor per- 1983 97,540 21.166 1,692 1.25 formance caused by nematodes 1984 294,081 63.816 2,826 2.26 is often attributed to poor soil 1985 255,568 55.458 2,924 1.90 fertility, drought stress, pH or 1986 238,975 51.858 2,119 2.45 weak fields (Goodell, 1995(a)). 1987 209,686 45.502 3,214 1.42 Table 2.12 summarizes the crop 1988 215,570 46.779 3,355 1.39 loss estimates attributed to 1989 238,975 51.858 2,655 1.95 nematodes in the USA from 1990 337,436 73.224 3,376 2.17 1982 to 1992. The apparently 1991 476,151 103.325 3,835 2.69 alarming increase from 35 thou- 1992 528,432 114.670 3,531 3.25 sand metric tons in 1982 to 115 Source: National Agricultural Statistical Service, USDA, Oct. 1993 thousand in 1992 is, at least in part, due to improvements in differentiating between the different causes of crop loss. Mean figures can also be misleading because of the wide range in the sever- ity of infestation. These figures show a range of 1.25 to 3.26 percent but severely infested fields can loose as much as 50 percent of their potential yield (Starr, 1995). None of the country reports gave precise estimates of losses due to nematodes. This could be due to an absence of data on the incidence of nematodes or to incorrect interpretation of the causes of crop loss. Clearly this is an area that requires attention, starting with training in the accurate identification of nematode species and in the assessment of nematode population densi- ties (Goodell, 1995(b)). Insect Pests and Integrated Pest Management Over the last 40 years, emphasis has been placed on chemical control of pests (insects, pathogens and weeds), but the problems of major pests becoming resistant to pesticides, increas- ing importance of other pests, the cost of inputs and incidence of poisoning has led to the devel- Technical Issues 87 opment of integrated pest management. This involves harmonious blending of different control tactics, including biological, cultural and chemical controls, to minimize any adverse effects on the environment. Where chemical control is needed, the IPM approach is to reduce the number of applications by improving crop monitoring (scouting and pheromone trap data) and using ac- tual thresholds to decide when to spray, with more efficient applications of selective pesticides. The major insect problem is not the same in each country although bollworms (Helicoverpa spp., Heliothis spp. and Pectinophora gossypiella) are important in most of the countries reviewed. The boll weevil (Anthonomus grandis) is confined to the Americas, and in the last decade has had a major impact on cotton production in Brazil. Cotton leafworm (Spodoptera littoralis) is a major pest in Egypt. There is little mention of losses due to early sea- son sucking pests. Consequently, the possible use of systemic insecticides as seed dressings or soil treatments against seedling pests is not discussed. Cotton production in the study countries varies from large to small-scale farms and from irrigated to rainfed farming, thus affecting the potential yields and impact of pest infestations, the severity of which is influenced by the overall cropping practices and climatic conditions in each region. As an example, diversified irrigated cropping in the Nile delta has undoubtedly al- lowed good survival of natural enemies such as lacewings, and some pest infestations, such as the Helicoverpa bollworm, have been less than in rainfed crops in sub-Saharan Africa. In con- trast the range of bollworm hosts, namely pigeon pea, chick pea, sorghum, maize, tomatoes, etc., in southern India has resulted in severe, prolonged infestations of bollworm. Expansion of maize areas in Tanzania is considered to be the cause of increased bollworm infestations on cotton. Major outbreaks of leaf curl virus in Pakistan are associated with susceptible varieties and in- creased populations of whitefly Bemisia tabaci, that survive periods without cotton on melons and other horticultural crops, the extent of which is increasing where irrigation is available. Since the 1950's there has been increasing reliance on chemical control of insect pests, especially where the agrochemical industry has few if any restrictions on which products could be marketed to cotton growers. However, the extent of insecticide use has varied significantly between countries. Where excessive use has already occurred resistance to certain insecticides has developed. As in other cotton growing countries, such as Thailand (Cox and Forrester, 1992) and Australia (Forrester et al, 1993), resistance is considered to be a problem in Mexico, India and now in China (Anon, 1993). Resistance to insecticides by bollworms is not a problem at present in countries where pesticide use has been regulated as in Mali, Tanzania and Egypt. In Mexico, India and more recently in Pakistan (from 1980) and China (since about 1985), there is freedom to market a wide range of formulations of single active ingredients or mixtures. Typical products include cypermethrin and chlorpyrifos. Use of these products has not been controlled within any cotton growing area so growers have used many different insec- ticides. With a lack of appropriate advice, growers initial reaction to poor control due to resis- tance is to increase the dosage, frequency of application or use of an ad hoc mixtures of two or more insecticides, all of which exacerbate the situation. Subsequently, when growers realize that the crop is no longer profitable, they change, wherever possible, to alternative crops. In Thai- land, for example, the area of cotton grown decreased due to resistance of bollworms to pyre- throids, necessitating increased fiber imports to satisfy the local textile industry (Cox and For- rester, 1992). Since 1994, there has been a major reduction in the area of cotton sown in China. In contrast, in Egypt, the Government has maintained a close control of insecticide use on cotton, with a current recommendation to limit the number of applications to 3-4 per season, 88 Cotton Production Prospects for the Next Decade using an acylurea insect growth regulator, usually in combination with an organophosphate in the first spray, then an organophosphate and a carbamate. In Mali, each of the applications, usually 4-6 per season, has been a combination of pyrethroid with organophosphate. Similarly in Tan- zania endosulfan or a pyrethroid ULV spray has been restricted to 6-8 applications. In practice many growers are said to use only 1-3 sprays per season and there are reports that the average is only 0.75 sprays per season. The reduced number of treatments is partly because of lack of in- puts, but also because of lack of credit. Changes in the insecticide distribution system may lead to less expensive products becoming available, but these may not be of acceptable standard or appropriate for the area. Only in Uzbekistan has there been a drastic reduction in insecticide use since 1980; partly due to the reaction to their overuse which resulted in extensive health problems and pollu- tion of the Aral Sea area, and partly due to the apparent success of releasing parasitoid wasps, Trichogrammapintori and Bracon herbator, against noctuid pests (cutworms and bollworms) in an environment with an extreme cold winter. Since Independence, the availability of insecticides has been restricted by lack of foreign exchange. In relation to many other factors affecting cotton production, integrated pest manage- ment may seem to be a small factor, but it must be recognized as one of the crucial factors. Without good economic pest management, there have been drastic falls in production, with growers switching to other crops, as witnessed in Thailand, China and Mexico and failure to produce acceptable lint in the Sudan due to excessive honeydew. In contrast production has in- creased in area such as francophone west Africa since 1975, following the widespread introduc- tion of well organized ULV spraying (Cauquil, 1987). Good cotton production also depends on the farmer obtaining a fair price for his efforts. While much of the expenditure on crop protection has been on insecticides, good integrated pest management will require a diversion of expenditure to crop monitoring and alternative tactics, such as the purchase of pheromone traps, natural enemies, new high quality seed of a resistant cultivar, improved stalk removal and changes in cropping practices. Insect Infestation Data One of the difficulties in assessing the crop protection programs is lack of data on pest populations. Variations in pest numbers in different locations and during seasons is not indicated in the reports. Some countries, such as Pakistan, have established an insect pest monitoring or warning system and claim that scouting has reduced the number of sprays from 10- 12 haphazard treatments to 3-5 applications. Scouting also reveals changes in pest status. Thus a comparison of data from 1977 (Exhibit 2.4) (Vaughan, 1978) and 1990 (Exhibit 2.5) with the graphs in the present Pakistan report (1993) (Exhibit 2.6) shows changes in pest status with Helicoverpa and Aphis now included as pests and increased infestations of whiteflies and pink bollworm. In introducing integrated pest management, one way of improving the timing of pesti- cide treatments and choice of chemical is by routine crop monitoring and using economic or ac- tion thresholds. It has been argued that economic thresholds (ETs) are not easy to determine and crop monitoring is too complicated for farmers to do. It may be that some national organization is needed to provide some data to compare areas and seasons, but crop monitoring by individual farmers has proved successful where it is simplified, directed at key decisions and quick. Thus in Central Africa a pegboard (Beeden, 1972), based on a sequential sampling technique, was aimed only at deciding how many bollworm eggs were present, but when numbers exceeded an Technical Issues 89 action threshold spraying would be required. More specialized sampling programs aim to de- termine the population of natural enemies, but the detection of beneficial species, apart from coccinellids or lacewings is difficult for individual farmers. If some data are collected nationally it would be easier to assess if a particular control program was appropriate or not. Accumulation of such data over several years in a system al- lowing easy retrieval should indicate trends and facilitate planning. Application Technology The choice of application technique varies significantly between the countries but de- spite the importance of accurate application and concern about environmental pollution, few de- tails are given. The Mexican report only mentions application in relation to herbicides; referring to manual, mechanical and aerial application. However, frequently, applications are made with the wrong nozzles or when weather conditions are unfavorable. Herbicides are not extensively used in any of the study countries so most of the following comments relate to insect control. Aerial application has been used in many cotton growing countries for insect control but for various reasons, most are endeavoring to phase it out. In Egypt the policy is to have 70 per- cent of applications with ground equipment rather than aircraft as fields are often small and in- secticides have been applied to areas beyond the cotton fields. Unfortunately, traditional ground spraying techniques in Egypt using a portable line system with a stationary pump at the edge of the field, grossly contaminate the laborers. Efforts are being made to improve the situation. In Uzbekistan aerial application was dominant, but with the trend to biological control, recent applications of acaricides, in particular, have been with an oscillating tractor-mounted mistblower which uses air as the carrier and blows the insecticide across about 12 rows. State farms in China and the Government Pakistan have used aerial application, whereas the main application technique has been with manually operated knapsack sprayers. The quality of the sprayers and nozzles has been poor with leakages contaminating operators and irregular spray distribution. Similarly in India, the use of manually operated equipment is dominant, with many farmers using very cheap, syringe type sprayers (Matthews, 1993) which give an intermit- tent spray and excessive operator contamination. Another important factor is the lack of spray reaching the under surfaces of lower leaves where whitefly is a problem. Apart from Malawi, no country has encouraged the use of a rear mounted vertical boom ('tailboom') on knapsack spray- ers to reduce operator contamination and improve insecticide distribution within the crop (Matthews, 1989). The capital cost of this equipment is greater than a standard knapsack, but in the long-term, there are benefits in terms of operator safety and improved spray distribution. In China the larger state farms use tractor mounted boom sprayers and also apply plant growth regulators to keep plant height more manageable. Nozzles pointing laterally into plants have been used between the rows. In Mali and Tanzania, the main method has been ultra-low volume (ULV) spraying with hand-held battery-operated spinning disc sprayers. This technique has the main advantage of allowing farmers to increase yields in areas where water supplies are poor. The main problems have been the increasing costs and packaging of small quantities of oil based formulations to avoid farmers measuring out the pesticide, as well as the supply of good quality batteries, al- though the number of batteries needed has been reduced by the improved design of sprayers. Exhibit 2.4: Pakistan Punjab Agroecological System 1977-78 Exhibit 2.5: Pakistan Punjab Agroecological System 1990-91 J F M A M J J A S O N D I I 1~~~~~0 _ ;MAXIMUM S4 z b MINIMUM 2:4O |MAXIMUM mim IN MULc G |~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~HMM _4 MM EEING JDULYIbIN W _ _ P~~~~RAIFALYLIHGkYGOUNDNFR MAXIMUM::::: 14l |~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~I SOWIW _GPEHRESIOD | RIAIN 11 J 13WEEDINFESTATION _ x = X ui ARETND CUTVTO MAXIMUM: 50,000 PLANTS/bORE XxxxxxxxXxxxxxxx I_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ __ -vHR IP S |WEEDS MAX. = 56.8533HA. AN.H..".."NU MAXIMUM:3PERLEAF _ | OD CD OD OD co C 0 S- overall cost of production has Qnmateralexpenses Ulaborcost 0cost of production tended to decrease due to more Source: China Country Report rapidly increasing labor costs (Fig. 4.36). Compared to 1980, in 1990, the output value of cotton increased 1.5 times and the after-tax net income increased by 122 percent, representing an annual increase of 12.2 percent. Country-wide Figures, which are misleading due to provincial yield differences, indicate that cotton (as a single crop or multi-cropped depending on the region) was financially the most at- tractive crop in China. In terms of regions, it is in the autonomous region of Xinjiang where cotton achieves its highest gross return (Fig. 4.27). Cotton is also profitable in the Yangtze River Region. As an example, in Hanchuan County, Hubei net returns to cotton are higher than rice, wheat and rapeseed (Fig. 4.28). However, cotton's profitability has eroded in much of the Yel- low River areas due to decreases in yield. In Shandong the cotton and wheat rotation ranked third in terms of gross returns before the recent increases in cotton prices (Fig. 4.26). In Tanzania, a survey carried out by the study team showed that the financial net output value was negative along with other crops like maize and sorghum. This is due both to low pro- ducer prices and the dramatic increase in the prices of pesticides, fertilizers and other production inputs following their liberalization. Between 1986/87 and 1988/89, the cost of cotton inputs increased by 475 percent while the producer price only increased by 70 percent over the same period. As a result, the use of fertiliser on cotton became minimal, especially among smallholder farmers. For instance, in the Mwanza Region only about 10 percent of farmers fertilise their crops and use farmyard manure as a supplement at less than half the recommended rate. Simi- larly, due to the high cost of batteries and chemicals, farmers often apply pesticides at an average of 2 to 3 sprayings below the recommended 6 to 8 sprayings, leaving cotton exposed to pest out- breaks. Production cost break-downs differ according to cultivation technique (Fig. 4.33). Fig 4.37: Mali: Net Returns (CFAF/ha) In Mali, the growers' continued preference to cotton over competing crops can be explained by a) efficient ex- 58,000 -- 1 tension, input distribution and general service provision, b) 56,000 income security as a result of the procurement by CMDT 54,000 of the entire crop. c) food security due to increased cereal 52,000 yields as a side benefit from increased input use for cotton, 50,000 and d) higher incomes due to productivity gains in cotton 48,000 (Fig. 4.37). The 1993 devaliationi of the CFA Franc in- 46,000 creased cotton grower returns by 36 to 44 percent after 44,000 adjustments were made for the higher costs of imported 0 m 0N inputs while not significantly improving the returns from 0) X °0 0 competing crops. Source: Mali Country Study 166 Cotton Production for the Next Decade Labor Availability and Mechanization In the majority of the countries cotton is entirely or to a large extent hand picked. In Pakistan almost all cotton pickers are female; in Egypt most picking is done by children and cleaning by women while in Brazil the labor force is composed of 80 percent children and ado- lescents and 20 percent adults (both men and women). In Egypt hand-picking is important in maintaining the quality of the fine and superfine varieties for which Egypt has an international reputation. Similarly, in Mali, exclusively manual picking is considered a quality guarantee. Labor availability is not a problem as the seasonal exodus of farm labor occurs only after the cotton harvest and is compensated by the arrival of migrants from other regions of Mali who are attracted to the richness of the cotton zone. However, the lack of training of the migrants in picking cotton has a negative effect on seed cotton quality. Similarly, in Brazil's Northeast where most pickers are unskilled, seasonal laborers (as opposed to resident peasants) who are paid on a weight basis, cotton quality is harmed by the high trash content. In addition, the high ratio of child and adolescent involvement in picking is considered a negative factor on quality. Exhibit 4.1: Tanzania - Production Schedule for Cotton, Maize and Rice in WCGA Activity Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Field preparation l Planting ++++++++++ Pest control, including +++..+ ++++ weeding - -_______ Harvesting & grading ........ Marketing Uprooting stems & +++++ buming ----------- Cotton ++++++ Paddy - Maize Source: Tanzania Country Report Micro Economics 167 Exhibit 4.2: Pakistan - Competition between Crops for Labor and Management Time Cotton: Picking & Storage Rice: Harvesting Cotton: Picking & Storage Sugar cane: Irrigation &Harvesting Wheat: Land Preparation Maize: Irigation & Harvesting Wheat: Planting, Irrigation, Herbicide Sugar cane: Irrigation & Harvesting Maize: Harvesting i Sugarcane: ISrigation & Harvesting \g CaCotto n: P ickin g &Storage Cotton: Spraye Ireigation & Picking S Cane: Hoeing. rigao. Whe at: P lanting, Irrigation, Herbicide & Rice: Cangating trrigation* Fertilizer& Maize: Irrigation ti Sp. Maie: Seed Bed Preparation & / .. | -|> N17 ...............................Sowing Source:r Pakistan Country Rcp~rL ______________________Sugar_Cane:_Harvesting Cotton: Irbi g ation, Spray & Fertilizer Sp. Maize: roigation andsinning Maize: Irrigation. Fertilizer & Granular NOApril . M . Jun DEC. July .August. FerOtiizer & Granular Sugar Cane: rrigation Sugar Cane: Seed Bed Preparation Rice: Fertilizer, Irrgation ... :-j - ..........3....Planting, Harvesting Granular & Zinc *. EP - fFEB , .' Wheat: Irrigation & Ferti lizer Coton: Irrigation, Spray M . sp. Maize: Planting hrrigation Fertilizer & Earthing Up N.... .:JLX X P Z Fertilizer & Granular Maize: Igation Thinning .. . Sugar Cane: Hoeing, rrigation Fertilizer & Granular ,,,,..... UN *MAY t ]1 etiie Psiie M : . I *~~~~~~~MM ..* *lie esiie Sugar Cane Irrigatio : Wei gagien & : 0ie Sedbd rpaato Transplanting, Fertilizer | ;r_wi fi...... otn: Seed Bed Preparation & Sowing & Granule Application \@.~/_***............. p aize: Irrigation & Harvesting T _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _. * * * * ----- C ---. Hoeing, - -rigation, Fertilizer Cotton: Gap Filling, Thinning, Weeding .. ,' . : ,.,.-... ,- ..& Pesticides Irrigation & Fertilizier ' ... -,'E ,................ Wet: Irrigation & Harvesting Ninize: Seedbed Preparation and Sowing Pe .. Pikn. Residue Sugar Cane: Igation .. Rice: Seedbed Preparation & Transplanting .. I CoEon: Seed Bed Preparation & Sowing Cotton: Seedbed Preparation & Sowing Sugar Cane: Hoeing, Irrigation, Fertilizer & Granule AppliNa,ion Sugar Cane: Earthing Up, Irrgation, Fertilizer & CGranule Application Wheat: Harvesting Rice: Seedbed Preparation & Transplanting| Source: Pakistan Country ReDprt Exhibit 4.3: Egypt -Annual Labor Requirement for Cotton and Other Crops | ' ~~~February 'March ' April . May , June . July .August .September .October .November| |S E*l |R E Thtrd Cut 'l IT E ''''' I | Ml T Land Preparation '. Pest Management .Picking: Rsdu | 0 Removal'l |C; Land Transplinting Harvesting E *Preparati*i | ~~~~February March April May June July August September October November| S01Succ. Egypt Cu0trTty Rcpoxl 168 Cotton Production for the Next Decade Non-availability and cost of labor are constraints to cotton production in a number of countries. The main causes for labor shortage are the overlap of tasks for other crops (Pakistan, Tanzania, Egypt), migration to big cities (Brazil) and other local employment opportunities (Mexico, China, Egypt). The Tanzania, Pakistan, and Egypt reports provide excellent illustra- tions of competition for labor among crops (Exhibits 4.1, 4.2 and 4.3, respectively). The impor- tance of labor cost in China is illustrated by its increasing percentage of total cotton production cost and the fact that the location of cotton production is shifting from areas close to urban cen- ters to poor rural regions. Mechanization is becoming more and more desirable in many coun- tries. In Mexico, harvesting machinery is becoming common in the states of Sonora, Sinaloa and Baja California. In Brazil, cotton cultivation is moving into areas with low population density such as Mato Grosso, Mato Grosso do Sul and Goias. Extensive large-scale production, practiced under conditions of labor shortage for picking, necessitates mechanical harvesting. However, given the increased trash content and higher rate of delivery of mechine-picked seed cotton, a need is created for high capacity gins with ancillary seed cotton and lint cleaners. In Uzbekistan the mechanical capacity in the cotton sub-sector is 80 percent. The utili- zation of this capacity largely depends on the presence of idle labor in different regions and weather at harvest time. For example in Termez where labor is scarce, the rate of mechanization is high, whereas in Bukhara and Ferghana where the population density is high, the mechanical capacity is less fully utilized. The country report also mentions that the existing 30,000 units of picking machines should be enough to completely mechanize the picking activity. However other factors such as lack of spare parts, high machinery cost, fuel shortages, lack of mainte- nance and the availability of cheap labor impede full utilization of mechanical capacity. By-Product Utilization Seed cotton by-products can be used in the production of a large number of goods as il- lustrated in Exhibit 4.4. In a number of countries, a significant percentage of cottonseed (85 per- cent in Pakistan, 55-60 percent in Uzbekistan and 17.5 percent in China and Mexico) is used to produce oil, by crushing or solvent extraction. In Pakistan, cottonseed oil accounts for over 85 percent of the country's edible oil consumption. Similarly, in Egypt cottonseed provides about 79 percent of the total edible oil produced and 20 percent of oil consumed in the country. Uzbekistan exports cottonseed to foreign oil extraction industries. In India, on the other hand, cottonseed oil is insignificant. The lack of organized trading facilities for cottonseed is an im- portant factor affecting production economics. Cottonseed cake, which is obtained in the process of crushing for oil, is very rich in protein and is used in all study countries as stockfeed (only ruminants can digest cellulose and tolerate gossypol present in cottonseed) and with careful processing, as human food. China has developed varieties with very little (< 2 percent) or no gossypol which yield high quality protein for human food. Pakistan exports part of its cake pro- duction. In the majority of countries, cotton stalks are used as a major source of fuel, to a lesser extent construction and fencing elements, and as organic fertilizers. Cotton stalks can also play a major role in Integrated Pest Management. For example, in Mexico, like in Sudan and Zim- babwe, it is compulsory by law to chop and bum stalks and stubble of cotton after harvest to kill insects before hibemation begins. This helps reduce next season's bollworm population. Simi- larly, in Egypt cotton stalks are usually burnt to reduce the overwintering bollworm population. ,~~~~~~~~ ... .......... .. .. . ..... ...... .. .1 Exhibit 4.4: By-Product Utilization Batting & wadding / Absorbant cotton for surgical dressings Mixing with wool in hatmaking & for fleece Mattresses & Upholstery Cushion & Pads Stuffing material Comforters & Quits Automobiles Lined underwear Felt SEED Paper stock I Lamp & Candle wicks TO COTTON) _'QLINTEMOAL~" LINTERS Low grade yarns ' Rope&Twine OIL MILL .-.-------------- a Carpets i 0 i | .... ..Fire crod, Hose * Rayon Textiles 5% SEED Plastic ................ Laquers, Film HELD FOR Cellulose ' ' Moulded articles SEEDING Nitrocellulose Gun cotton t i.. Explosives - Writing paper Feed for cattle and sheep, fertilizer Fuel (Potash from ashes), Filler for plastic FROM _GINNERY| ( HULLS Stuffing materials, Xylose, Lignin Furfural for synthetic rubber, Sweeping compounds / X . -CA7KE& Fertilizer, flour or bakery products / | g \ .. >fE~~~~~~~~~~~~- ALS Feed for livestock & poultry & z I s 8 " " ""- .... .......................................................... ...~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~. . . . . . . . .. .. . .. ... .. .. . .. .. . . | 1 ~~~~MEATS .....-------------| TRASH I Animal and Vegetable Lard Compounds, TRASH .. Margarine, Salad Oil, Mayonnaise & Salad Dressings, CRUDE Putty, Soap, Anti-freeze, Candle Pitch, Paints, \ OIL Nitroglycerin for Medicine and Explosive ,4IBRE SOLD3\ \ \ Linoleum, Cooking Oil And Shortening, { TO TEXTILE \ Wool scouring, Rubber compounding, Textile fulling, M ILLStearin & Stearic Acid, Moistener for Tobacco, 170 Cotton Production Prospects for the Next Decade Ownership of the seed cotton by-products is important in determining the economic benefits farmers receive. In Mexico where ginners are hired by farmers to process their seed cotton, the value of cottonseed is used to pay for the ginning charge. In Pakistan farmers derive additional revenue from selling the stalks whose value is usually equivalent to the cost of cutting (Rs 166-200/ha). In Brazil, on the other hand, small and medium producers who are not associ- ated with cooperatives, sell their seed cotton to ginning plants which sell the by-products to oil and fodder factories, and the furniture and fabric industry. The country report emphasizes that to increase the income of the farmers, the big problem is not increasing the potential of by-product production but the transfer of the revenue derived from their sale. This observation may or may not be valid depending on whether or not ginning charges are adjusted for lint by-product value. In Mali, where the cotton sub-sector is vertically integrated and managed by CMDT in a general rural development framework, cotton cake is returned by CMDT to farmers as stock feed. Increased mechanization will lead to an increase in ginnery waste. Disposal of this ma- terial can be a problem. Traditionally, it has been burned in the USA but this is no longer per- mitted for environmental reasons. Ginnery waste consists mainly of leaf particles, twigs and re- mains of the boll walls. It can be used as a soil conditioner by merely spreading it on the soil. However, this may also spread weed seeds and any plant pathogens that are present in the plant remains. Composting would remove the weed and disease problem but would require a fair amount of labor. Composting with poultry litter makes excellent compost but again, labor could be a problem. Some research has been conducted in the USA, India and Pakistan on converting ginnery waste to produce bio-gas. This approach requires further investigation. Motes comprise undeveloped seeds and consist mainly of short fibers. They can be utilized in upholstery or for the production of low grade fabrics. Marketing5 Marketing of Seed cotton and Payment of the Producer In countries where procurement is done through parastatals, at least part of the payment is made at the time of the collection. In China, the price of cotton is paid in cash by the purchas- ing unit. Farmers receive an advance down payment in the spring season which is then deducted from the final balance. However, script payments have existed in some years. In Egypt, prior to liberalization, farmers were paid in two installments (80 percent-20 percent): part of it on deliv- ery to the collection centers and the rest after cotton was delivered to ginneries and graded. The reports from China and Egypt do not mention any delays in payments to the producers. In Uzbekistan, for the part of the quota that is procured by the state (currently about two thirds of the production), primary advanced payments are made after the seed cotton is taken to the pro- curement centers of the ginneries. The final settlement is in July-August of the following year after complete seed cotton processing to cotton fiber is completed. Under high inflationary conditions, as has been prevalent in Uzbekistan, this delayed payment of the second installment has contributed greatly to the decreasing profitability of cotton over the past two years. In Mali, where all seed cotton is procured by CMDT, about 80 percent of the primary collection is done by Village Associations (AVs). Classical AVs who collect and store the seed cotton at the vil- lage level until CMDT's buying agents arrive, purchase for cash, paying producers immediately after assessing the quality. Advanced AVs, on the other hand, carry out the marketing them- selves. Their members receive payment, including the rebates, after the quality control at the ginnery. Large growers bring their seed cotton directly to the ginnery where they receive pay- sA schematic outline of the marketing organization in each study country is given in the annex to this chapter. Micro Economics 171 ment. Finally, in villages that are not organized in village associations, seed cotton is collected and purchased directly by CMDT collection agents. Farmers also receive a bonus based on the export selling price. Until the onset of liberalization, cotton purchases in Tanzania were organized by re- gional cooperative unions except in Tabora, Kigoma, Singida and Iringa where TCLSB did all the purchasing. Societies contracted by the unions were charged with paying cash to farmers at collection points immediately after grade inspection and weighing. However, payments have been seriously delayed due to liquidity problems of the unions. After the transition to liberal marketing has been completed, private buyers holding buying licenses will also be able to pur- chase seed cotton. The Tanzania study team calls for a rigorous enforcement of regulations gov- erning buyers licenses in order to protect farmers against unscrupulous buyers and to instill hon- esty in the buyers in general. In India, Pakistan, and Mexico seed cotton is sold in the open market to private buyers. In Mexico, the sales process begins with the supply by the producers of a given number of bales and ends with the delivery of the produce, and the agreement of the parties on classification, penalties, weight and tare. Payment is made with a letter of credit or through some other agreed- on form. In case of a credit loan, the settlement is accomplished by a joint or separate check. In other cases the price is paid directly, to the seller's account. In India, payments in regulated markets, existing in nine major producing areas, are usually within a week (state-wise variation occurs) while no patterns exist in the unregulated markets6. It is estimated that about 80 percent of seed cotton passes through the regulated markets although an estimated 80 percent of this has been sold by the grower at the village level to an intermediary who pays cash and brings the pro- duce to the market. In Pakistan, the farmer receives the payment for his seed cotton from the 'arthis' oi the ginner to whom he sells his cotton. All the money ultimately comes from com- mercial banks which advance loans to ginners for buying seed cotton, or from the buyer textile mills, the Cotton Export Corporation, or exporters who have to make payment to the ginner for the lint sale. Any blocking in this channel adversely affects the timely payment of growers. As an example, glut in the international yarn market affects the sale of lint locally and the payment to growers at the other end of the chain. In Brazil, cotton growers either sell directly to ginneries or utilize the government loan program. Marketing Margins and Farmer's Share Cotton is the raw material for yarn and apparel. The process from the harvesting of seed cotton to the production and marketing of the end material is a lengthy one, in which each step increases the value added. The price of the end product thus reflects the costs of processing, transportation, storage, handling and traders' profits. In perfectly competitive markets the share the farmer gets from the price of the need product, be it apparel, yarn or lint depends not only on the efficiency of the marketing and processing system but also on the distance of the farm from market, domestic or international. In the US, where there is minimum price distortion and an efficient marketing system, the ratio of the lint equivalent farmgate price in the domestic lint price is about 0.80 (Table 4.6). In contrast, in Mali, long distances contribute to the high trans- portation cost and thus, relatively low farmer share (about 0.52 in 1991/92.) 6In the areas with regulated markets it is obligatory that produce is brought to such markets for sale and business is transacted according to certain by-laws. The legislation has been enacted to ensure fair prices and timely payment to the farmer. 172 Cotton Production Prospects for the Next Decade Box 4.1: Marketing Margins in US Denim Industry The example of the US denim industry is illustrated in Table 4.6. The farmgate price of cotton lint (i.e. the lint equivalent of the farmgate price for seed cotton) makes up only 8.8 percent of the retail price of denim dungarees. The shares of ginning, marketing and milling are 1.1, 0.9 and 18.4 percent, respectively. The technological progress towards more efficiency made in these fields since 1976, the date of these data, reduced these shares in favor of the farmers. Table 4.6: Components of Farm-Retail Spread for Cotton Denim Dungarees in the US, 1976 Component Cost per lb. of Cost per pair Proportion of cotton used' produced2 (US Retail Value (US $) $) (%) Lint Equiv. Farmgate Price 0.53 1.14 8.8 Ginning 0.067 0.143 1.1 Marketing to textile mills 0.055 0.118 0.9 Warehousing services (0.011) (0.024) Compression (0.008) (0.017) Transportation (0.017) (0.036) All other3 (0.019) (0.041) Lint Price on Mill Floor 0.652 2.401 18.54 (Farmer's Share = 0. 82)) Textile mill processing and finishing 1.114 2.384 18.4 Apparel manufacturing 1.740 3.724 28.8 Wholesaling-retailing 2.542 5.440 42 Total fann-retail spread 5.518 11.809 91.2 Source: USDA, "Cotton and Wool Situation, " Economic Research Service, February 1977 Reflects the estimated cost or value added to one pound of cotton used in the manufacture of denim dungarees at each stage. 2Reflects the estimated cost of value added to a pair of denim dungarees containing 2.14 pounds of cotton at each stage between the farmngate and the retail shelf. 3 Includes buying and selling expenses, cotton insurance, financing, and overhead expenses of marketing firms. Marketing Margins and Farmers' Shares in Study Countries' Of the nine study countries, Table 4.7: Brazil - Cost Break-Down of Marketing Operations India, Brazil, China and Egypt use US$/15 kg most of their cotton in their textile Sao Paulo Cash Price for Lint 24.14 industry and Pakistan produces yarn, - Freight to Sao Paulo 0.30 while Tanzania, Mali and Uzbekistan - Lint Cotton Classification 0.10 export the majority ofthr p . + Revenue from Seed Sales 2.90 export the majority o theilr produce. - Ginning Costs 3.50 Mexico has become essentially trade - Brokerage Percentage (1.0 %) 0.24 neutral due to both declining cotton - Transportation Costs (0.2 %) 0.05 production and increasing domestic - Storage Insurance and Interest (I month) 2.54 cotton consumption. - Trade Margin (5.0 %) 1.20 = Lint Equivalent Farmgate Price 20.81 Table 4.7 and Fig. 4.38 * GOT (0.34) illustrate marketing margins and the Farmgate Seed Cotton Price 7.07 development of the farmer's share in (Farmgate Price /Domestic Lint Price = 0.86) the domestic lint price of Brazil. Source: Brazil Country Report Table 4.9 presents a breakdown of * The year of the data was not idntified but is probably 1993 marketing costs and revenues in two regions of Mexico. Figs. 4.38 and 4.39 illustrate the changes in the farmer's share in the domestic lint prices in Egypt, where domestic spinning mills have enjoyed significant price subsidies on lint. However, this ratio has declined dramatically the past two years due to market liberalization. The farmer's A Section on the Calculation of Farmer's Share is presented in the Annex 2 to this Chapter. Micro Economics 173 share in the export price has increased since 1990 as illustrted in Fig. 4.42. Similarly, in Pakistan (Fig. 4.44) the domestic lint prices have been kept at a low level through the minimum export price and the benchmark price systems. However, this level has increased the past two years as Pakistan prices have responded to the difficulties encountered due to the leaf curl virus and pests. Table 4.8 outlines the cost break-down of the Tanzanian marketing board from 1985- 1993. Fig. 4.43 shows the development of the farmgate and export prices of lint and the farmer's share since 1981/82. The table and figures show that the farmer's share was held through fixed farmgate prices at about 80 percent until 1985/86 when world lint prices plummeted but since producer prices had been fixed in advance, the farmer's share was 165 percent of the export price and the marketing board incurred losses. Continued losses, mainly due to inefficieny and alleged corruption, led the board to decrease the farmer's share by not increasing the producer's price as much as the inflation level. In 1992/93 the share was 44 percent, a relatively low ratio.2 Table 4.8: Tanzania - Breakdown of Marketing Costs and Revenues (TShs/kg) 1985/6 1986/7 1987/8 1988/9 1989/0 1990/1 1991/2 1992/3 A) Costs 70.73 147.61 209.11 255.48 316.94 390.02 400.42 358.94 Farmgate price/kg of seed cotton 13.00 16.90 19.10 22.35 28.00 41.00 70.00 60.00 per kg of lint' 38.81 50.45 57.01 66.72 83.58 122.39 205.88 176.47 Society levy 1.19 2.62 5.22 8.66 11.64 15.22 13.85 15.00 Union Costs' 3.88 60.75 80.57 111.04 142.06 198.51 89.43 69.93 Ginning Costs 5.25 8.89 14.81 24.83 35.93 53.90 53.00 53.00 Board Forwarding costs 30.00 33.72 Agency fees 21.30 24.90 51.50 44.23 43.73 58.15 8.26 10.82 B) Revenues 59.45 71.21 100.28 180.2 236.79 330.70 354.66 416.82 Lint Export Price in TShs / kg 51.6 59.16 85.26 173.03 239.25 325.36 331.2 399.75 % Export sales 75 72 73 85 75 72 82 93 a) Export Earnings in TShs/kg. 38.70 42.60 62.24 147.08 179.44 234.26 271.58 371.77 Local Sales Price 52.25 81.35 123.50 175.50 206.20 323.70 382 439 % Local sales 25 28 27 15 25 28 18 7 b) Local Earnings TShs/kg. 13.06 22.78 33.35 26,34 51.55 90.64 68.76 30.73 c) Income from seed/kg of lint 7.69 5.83 4.69 6.78 5.80 5.80 14.32 14.32 Profit (Loss) (11.28) (76.40) (108.83) (75.28) (80.15) (59.32) (45.76) 57.88 % farmgate price / export price 75 85 67 39 35 51 62 44 % farmgate price/local sales price 74 62 46 38 41 38 54 40 Source: Tanzania Country Report a Conversion factor (GOT): 0.335 b Includes Society levy, District Council Cess, Handling, Crop Transport, Crop Insurance, Finance Costs, Union Levy, Cash Insurance and Transport, Storage and Fumigation, Bags and Twine and Miscellaneous Expenses. 2The data used in Table 4.8 and Fig. 4.45 were taken from two different tables in the Tanzania Country Report that used different exchange rate series. That is the reason for the divergence in the farmer's shares. The series used to calculate the farmer's share in Table 4.8 probably reflect the market rate while the other series used in the Fig. reflects the overvalued official rate. Thus, the former, smaller farmer's share series is more likely to reflect the true share that the farmer received. 174 Coton Production Prospecis for the Next Decade Fig. 4.38: Brazil - Parani: Farmgate Seed Cotton vs. Domestic Fig. 4.41: Egypt - Giza 75 Qibli (LS) Lint Equiv. Lint Price (c/lb) Farmgate vs. Domestic Lint Prices 30.00 78% 3Do 120 25.007% 250 ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~110 20(t) r [i21 : : : j 74:/0 72,4 20__ __ _ 100 15.00 170%W o 2-~~~~~~~~~~68% 05 500 ~~~~~~~~~64% 62% 50* ..5 70 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994' SeedColonEquivalent Lint P rice] co , O or rD rD or a, o - N ' SeedcottonPrice atFarmgate r or ,t r r r or r ° or +Farmer's Share Farrngale rLint i Farrner'a Shau * Average of the first five months of 1994. SourceEgypt Countr Report Source: Parana State Department of Agriculture Fig. 4.39: China - Lint Cotton Purchase vs. Sales Price (Yuan/T) Fig. 4.42: Egypt - Farmgate / Export Parity Price 8000 - _ 70-__ _ ___ 5000 - ~~~~~~~~40 ____ 4000 30_ ____ 3000 - - 2000 - ~~~~ ~V - -_ _ 1988/8 1989/9 1990/9 1991/9 1992/9 1993/9 F-Lint-Colto-n Farmgate' PriceUSle rcj--Gi7O u-ia5 *In China is farmers are paid on the basis of lint. Source Egypt Country Report Source: Ministry of Intemal Trade Fig. 4.40: Egypt - Giza 70 (ELS) Lint Equiv. Farmgate vs. Domestic Lint Prices Fig. 4.43: Mali - Farmgate vs. Export Prices 700 60 4So 130 600 5 40° ..N 50 t rlv (,,: ,> , 8 r°n rn rn 0 _FlberEqujvalertPriceatFarmga 83.50* i =. m KD ,> re rn 8 _ 1_0 40 300 100 400 4 0 c250 ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~90 30 300 "Z ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~20 ,,--00 ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~~O200 150 70 100 1 1 00 60 00 50 A 50 -. (r ro Oi ro 40 Fnise, E suiva le nt Price a t Faromgabte o .- cr1 ifl Ce in 0 N en or a 2r-- F.O.B.rice 7 -.--~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~Farmer's Share r1Farsrgate Lint -*Fannee's Sharle Source: Egypt Country Report Source: Mali Country Report Micro Economics 175 Fig. 4.44: Pakistan - Lint Equivalent Farmgate Price Table 4.9: Mexico - Breakdown of Marketing Costs and vs. Domestic Lint Price Revenues (1994) (US cents/lb) in terms of Lint Cotton 1800 90 0 Region La Cabo 1600 8_ _ _Laguna rca 1600 - _#> 2 _ 80 0 _ Definition A) Costs 1400 70.0 1. Production Cost at 86.01 76.43 a1200 60 0 Farmgate 1000 50.0 (unpackaged) 800 400 2. Primary 3.11 0.89 r 600 r 30.0 Transportation and 400 20.0 3 Marketing Costs 3. Ginning Cost 7.08 7.05 200 10 0 4. Classification and 0.25 0 00 _ __ Storage _ _ _ i X t N